National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for gip tcf risked

  1. Non-cell-autonomous stimulation of stem cell proliferation following ablation of Tcf3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yi, Fei; Merrill, Bradley J.

    2010-04-01

    A combination of cell intrinsic factors and extracellular signals determine whether mouse embryonic stem cells (ESC) divide, self-renew, and differentiate. Here, we report a new interaction between cell intrinsic aspects of the canonical Wnt/Tcf/{beta}-catenin signaling pathway and extracellular Lif/Jak/Stat3 stimulation that combines to promote self-renewal and proliferation of ESC. Mutant ESC lacking the Tcf3 transcriptional repressor continue to self-renew in the absence of exogenous Lif and through pharmacological inhibition of Lif/Jak/Stat3 signaling; however, proliferation rates of TCF3-/- ESC were significantly decreased by inhibiting Jak/Stat3 activity. Cell mixing experiments showed that stimulation of Stat3 phosphorylation in TCF3-/- ESC was mediated through secretion of paracrine acting factors, but did not involve elevated Lif or LifR transcription. The new interaction between Wnt and Lif/Jak/Stat3 signaling pathways has potential for new insights into the growth of tumors caused by aberrant activity of Wnt/Tcf/{beta}-catenin signaling.

  2. Increased expression of bHLH transcription factor E2A (TCF3) in prostate cancer promotes proliferation and confers resistance to doxorubicin induced apoptosis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patel, Divya; Chaudhary, Jaideep; Dept. of Biological Sciences, Clark Atlanta University, 223 James P. Brawley Dr. SW, Atlanta, GA 30314

    2012-05-25

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer E2A, considered as a tumor suppressor is highly expressed in prostate cancer. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Silencing of E2A attenuates cell proliferation and promotes apoptosis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer E2A regulates c-myc, Id1, Id3 and CDKN1A expression. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Loss of E2A promotes doxorubicin dependent apoptosis in prostate cancer cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results suggest that E2A acts as a tumor promoter at least in prostate cancer. -- Abstract: E2A (TCF3) is a multifunctional basic helix loop helix (bHLH), transcription factor. E2A regulates transcription of target genes by homo- or heterodimerization with cell specific bHLH proteins. In general, E2A promotes cell differentiation, acts as a negative regulator of cell proliferation in normal cells and cancer cell lines and is required for normal B-cell development. Given the diverse biological pathways regulated/influenced by E2A little is known about its expression in cancer. In this study we investigated the expression of E2A in prostate cancer. Unexpectedly, E2A immuno-histochemistry demonstrated increased E2A expression in prostate cancer as compared to normal prostate. Silencing of E2A in prostate cancer cells DU145 and PC3 led to a significant reduction in proliferation due to G1 arrest that was in part mediated by increased CDKN1A(p21) and decreased Id1, Id3 and c-myc. E2A silencing in prostate cancer cell lines also resulted in increased apoptosis due to increased mitochondrial permeability and caspase 3/7 activation. Moreover, silencing of E2A increased sensitivity to doxorubicin induced apoptosis. Based on our results, we propose that E2A could be an upstream regulator of Id1 and c-Myc which are highly expressed in prostate cancer. These results for the first time demonstrate that E2A could in fact acts as a tumor promoter at least in prostate cancer.

  3. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  4. Risk Management RM

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    performance, schedule, and cost risks. Once risks are identified, sound risk mitigation strategies and actions should be developed and documented. This approach is further...

  5. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-12

    The purpose of this guide is to describe effective risk management processes. The continuous and iterative process includes updating project risk documents and the risk management plan and emphasizes implementation communication of the risks and actions taken.

  6. Risk Assessment & Management Information

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NRC - A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework, April 2012 Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) web page DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty

  7. Fuzzy Risk Analyzer

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1994-03-04

    FRA is a general purpose code for risk analysis using fuzzy, not numeric, attributes. It allows the user to evaluate the risk associated with a composite system on the basis of the risk estimates of the individual components.

  8. Enterprise Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Framework The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework includes four steps: identify the risks, determine the probability and impact of each one, identify controls that are...

  9. Loan Specialist (Risk Management)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Loan Programs Office (LPO), Risk Management Division (RMD), and Enterprise Risk Management & Compliance Branch. The LPO mission...

  10. Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Model The Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model is a system used to analyze the cost and benefit of addressing risks inherent in the work performed by the Department of Energy....

  11. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  12. Topographical Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-09-24

    TRA was developed as a computer tool for the DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) that will provides the capability to visualize and rapidly understand information about the risks associated with the River protection Project (RPP). Previously, technical and programmatic risk management within ORP had relied heavily on risk lists and other techniques that presented risk information but did not place it in perspective of the overall project. This made it difficult for ORP seniormore » management to understand the risk information presented, prioritize their activities, and provide direction to ORP staff and contractors about how to manage specific risk events. The TRA visualization tool, provides the appropriate context and perspective that allows senior management to effectively manage risks. Basically, the TRA overlays information about risks associated with specific activities and their magnitudes on top of the project baseline schedule. this provides senior management with information about the magnitudes of specific risk events as well as their timing, and allows them to focus their attention and resources on the risks that merit attention and possible further action. The TRA tool can also be used to display other types of information associated with scheduled activities, such as cost to date, technical performance, schedule performance, etc. Additionally, the base of the 3-dimensional representation can be changed to other types of graphics, such as maps, process flow diagrams, etc., which allows the display of other types of informatio, such as hazards, health and safety risks, and system availability.« less

  13. Risk Analysis | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Analysis Almost any new technology involves some risk. Risks involved in working with ... (FMEA), a risk mitigation plan, and a communication plan, is used as a criterion for the ...

  14. Sociocultural definitions of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-10-01

    Public constituencies frequently are criticized by technical experts as being irrational in response to low-probability risks. This presentation argued that most people are concerned with a variety of risk attributes other than probability and that is rather irrational to exclude these from the definition and analysis of technological risk. Risk communication, which is at the heart of the right-to-know concept, is described as the creation of shared meaning rather than the mere transmission of information. A case study of utilities, public utility commissions, and public interest groups illustrates how the diversity of institutional cultures in modern society leads to problems for the creation of shared meanings in establishing trust, distributing liability, and obtaining consent to risk. This holistic approach to risk analysis is most appropriate under conditions of high uncertainty and/or decision stakes. 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  15. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  16. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Community, Environment » Environmental Stewardship » Environmental Protection » Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals. Contact Environmental Communication & Public Involvement P.O. Box 1663 MS M996 Los Alamos, NM 87545 (505) 667-0216 Email The ECORISK Database is a screening tool that helps scientists evaluate impacts on LANL's ecology. Assessing our

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy ...

  18. Environmental Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    PPPO subject-matter experts analyze possible environmental hazards and provide risk assessment information to help inform various environmental decision-making processes.

  19. Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The CNS has purview of over ninety EM nuclear facilities across the DOE complex. To ensure that limited resources are applied in a risk-informed and balanced approach, the CNS performed a methodical assessment of the EM nuclear facilities. This risk-informed approach provides a data-driven foundation on which to construct a balanced set of operating plans and staff assignments.

  20. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  1. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-01-18

    This Guide provides non-mandatory risk management approaches for implementing the requirements of DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets. Supersedes DOE G 413.3-7.

  2. Risk in the Weapons Stockpile

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noone, Bailey C

    2012-08-14

    When it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile, risk must be as low as possible. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk.

  3. The Enterprise Risk Management Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management Model Using the Risk Assessment Tool to Prepare a Justification Memorandum for the Development and Revision of Departmental Directives * On January 14,...

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  5. High Risk Plan

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Plan John Bashista Melissa Rider Jeff Davis Timeline to date * OMB memo on Improving Government Acquisition issued July 29, 2009 - Review existing contracts and acquisition practices to save 7% of baseline contract spending (3.5% in FY 2010 and 3.5% in FY 2011) - Reduce high risk contracts by 10% the share of dollars obligated in FY2010 - Final plan was due and submitted on November 2, 2009 - OMB reviewed and requested revision Dec 23, 2009 - Revision submitted April 21, 2010 M&Os are

  6. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  7. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  8. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-18

    Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

  9. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  10. Risk Management Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2008-09-16

    This Guide provides a framework for identifying and managing key technical, schedule, and cost risks through applying the requirements of DOE O 413.3A, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, dated 7-28-06. Canceled by DOE G 413.3-7A, dated 1-12-11. Does not cancel other directives.

  11. Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  12. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  13. Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  14. Supervisory Loan Specialist (Strategic Risk)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the Department of Energy (DOE) Loans Programs Office (LPO), Risk Management Division (RMD or LP-40) Strategic Risk Group (LP-40). The incumbent is the supervisor for the...

  15. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  16. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: ?Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors ?Enables analysis of different budget scenarios ?Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks ?Real-time analysis ?Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied ?Promotes solid budget defense

  17. Regulatory cost-risk study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-04-01

    This study is intended to provide some quantitative perspective by selecting certain examples of criteria for which estimates of risks and costs can be obtained, and the balance of the various risks, (i.e., internal versus external risks), can be put into perspective. 35 refs., 39 tabs. (JDB)

  18. Risk perception in developing countries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilbanks, T.J.; Rayner, S.F.

    1985-02-15

    The paper briefly reviews: (1) what risk perception means to most people in developing countries; (2) some of the modern-technology-related risks to which people in these countries are exposed; and (3) some research evidence about risk perception that gives hints about how such perceptions will evolve in developing countries. (ACR)

  19. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tools design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  20. Photovoltaic Degradation Risk: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D. C.; Kurtz, S. R.

    2012-04-01

    The ability to accurately predict power delivery over the course of time is of vital importance to the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Important cost drivers include the efficiency with which sunlight is converted into power, how this relationship changes over time, and the uncertainty in this prediction. An accurate quantification of power decline over time, also known as degradation rate, is essential to all stakeholders - utility companies, integrators, investors, and researchers alike. In this paper we use a statistical approach based on historical data to quantify degradation rates, discern trends and quantify risks related to measurement uncertainties, number of measurements and methodologies.

  1. Risk Management Tool Attributes: | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Management Tool Attributes: Risk Management Tool Attributes: PDF icon Risk Management Tool Attributes: More Documents & Publications Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning...

  2. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant statusmore » are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.« less

  3. IEA-Risk Quantification and Risk Management in Renewable Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Energy Topics: Finance, Implementation, Market analysis Resource Type: Presentation, Lessons learnedbest practices Website: www.iea-retd.orgfilesRISK%20IEA-RETD%20(2011-6)....

  4. AMERIND Risk Annual Conference and Trade Fair

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the AMERIND Risk, this three-day conference includes risk management training, workers' safety, human resources, and more.

  5. Risk Management RM | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Risk Management RM Risk Management RM This tool is the process of continuous and iterative identification and control of project risks and opportunities. Risks can be technical, financial, or programmatic. The goal for the risk management system is to either avoid the risk's threat by taking preemptive action or to minimize the risks negative impacts on project performance. Project opportunities identified through the project risk management process can be handled in a similar manner with the

  6. Risk Management Process Overview | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    » Risk Management Process Overview Risk Management Process Overview figure depicting three tier risk management process The cybersecurity risk management process explained in the Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline has two primary components: the risk management model and the the risk management cycle. The risk management model reflects the organization as a three-tiered structure and provides a comprehensive view for the electricity sector organization and

  7. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Risk Removal | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Removal Risk Removal Workers safely remove old mercury tanks from the Y-12 National Security Complex. Workers safely remove old mercury tanks from the Y-12 National Security Complex. Risk removal is the most crucial and pivotal action for EM to achieve its missions locally. The organization works to protect the environment and residents' and employees' health, provide clean land for future generations, and bolster DOE missions, modernization, and economic development in Oak Ridge. All of

  9. EMAB Risk Subcommittee Interim Report

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ADVISORY BOARD Incorporating Risk and Sustainability into Decision Making Submitted by the ... Secondly, the Subcommittee is tasked with reviewing"incorporating sustainability into the ...

  10. ORISE: Crisis and Risk Communication

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office (ORO), ORISE provides crisis and risk communication support through the management of its Joint Information Center (JIC)...

  11. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  12. R00475--FM Risk Mgmt

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    to project success. The risk identification process on a project is typically one of brain- storming, and the usual rules of brainstorming apply: * The full project team should...

  13. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  14. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  15. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-10-31

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it`s subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists.

  16. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs.

  17. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  18. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    Evaluation of criticality safety has become an important task in preparing for the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS) uranium enrichment runs that will take place during the Integrated Process Demonstration (IPD) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). This integrated operation of AVLIS systems under plant-like conditions will be used to verify the performance of process equipment and to demonstrate the sustained integrated enrichment performance of these systems using operating parameters that are similar to production plant specifications. Because of the potential criticality concerns associated with enriched uranium, substantial effort has been aimed towards understanding the potential system failures of interest from a criticality standpoint, and evaluating them in detail. The AVLIS process is based on selective photoionization of uranium atoms of atomic weight 235 (U-235) in a vapor stream, followed by electrostatic extraction. The process is illustrated in Figure 1. Two major subsystems are involved: the uranium separator and the laser system. In the separator, metallic uranium is fed into a crucible where it is heated and vaporized by an electron beam. The atomic U-235/U-238 vapor stream moves away from the molten uranium and is illuminated by precisely tuned beams of dye laser light. Upon absorption of the tuned dye laser light, the U-235 atoms become excited and eject electrons (become photoionized), giving them a net positive charge. The ions of U-235 are moved preferentially by an electrostatic field to condense on the product collector, forming the enriched uranium product. The remaining vapor, which is depleted in U-235 (tails), passes unaffected through the photoionization/extractor zone and accumulates on collectors in the top of the separator. Tails and product collector surfaces operate at elevated temperatures so that deposited materials flow as segregated liquid streams. The separated uranium condensates (uranium enriched in U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  19. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tuxen, L.

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  20. Sandia Energy - Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessmentcwdd2015-05-04T21:05:48+00:00 security Water Treatment Facility Definition Security is assuring that water sources and water distribution systems are...

  1. ORISE: Crisis and Risk Communication

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Crisis and Risk Communication Crisis and Risk Communication Because a natural disaster, act of terrorism or other public emergency can happen without notice, having a planned, coordinated communication effort is necessary to help alleviate public anxiety during times of uncertainty. The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) helps prepare government agencies and organizations manage the communication aspects of emergency response. Whether this involves creating crisis

  2. High Risk Plan | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Risk Plan High Risk Plan PDF icon High Risk Plan More Documents & Publications DOE Site Facility Management Contracts Internet Posting DOE Head of Contracting Activity and Procurement Directors' Directory - Sept 25 2015 OPAM Policy Acquisition Guides

  3. Mobius Risk Group LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Mobius Risk Group LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: Mobius Risk Group LLC Place: Houston, Texas Zip: TX 77056 Product: A risk advisor to energy-consuming companies, utilities...

  4. Risk Management Process Overview | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    has two primary components: the risk management model and the the risk management cycle. ... Tier 1: Organization Tier 2: Mission and Business Process Tier 3: Information ...

  5. Report: Technical Uncertainty and Risk Reduction

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    TECHNICAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK REDUCTION Background In FY 2007 EMAB was tasked to assess EM's ability to reduce risk and technical uncertainty. Board members explored this topic...

  6. AMERIND Risk Annual Conference and Trade Fair

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by the AMERIND Risk, this three-day conference includes trainings in risk management, workers' safety, human resources, and more.

  7. Envisory Financial Risk Management | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Envisory Financial Risk Management Jump to: navigation, search Name: Envisory Financial Risk Management Place: Mnchen, Bavaria, Germany Zip: 80331 Sector: Renewable Energy...

  8. Role of LEPCs in risk management and risk communication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mannan, M.

    1995-12-31

    Under Section 112(r) of Title III of the Clean Air Act Amendments, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to develop regulations that would require development and implementation of risk management programs at facilities that manufacture, process, use, store, or otherwise handle regulated substances in quantities that exceed specified threshold quantities. On January 31, 1994, EPA published the final rule establishing the List of Regulated Substances and Thresholds for Accidental Release Prevention. The proposed rule will require covered facilities to develop and implement a risk management program. The proposed rule will also require facilities to communicate various information to the local emergency planning committee (LEPC). This information may be provided in the form of consultation and communication during the development of various elements of the risk management program and/or by providing access to the risk management plan (RMP). These requirements not only place an additional regulatory burden on facilities but also create the need for the LEPCs to start planning for strategies to deal with significant amount of technical information in a meaningful and effective manner. This paper presents a summary of EPA`s proposed rule, the role of LEPCs in the implementation of many aspects of the rule, and a description of the potential contents of an RMP. Covered facilities as well as the LEPCs may gain a significant advantage by engaging in early dialogue and proactive education to determine mutual needs.

  9. Air Risk Information Support Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shoaf, C.R.; Guth, D.J.

    1990-12-31

    The Air Risk Information Support Center (Air RISC) was initiated in early 1988 by the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA) Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) and the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) as a technology transfer effort that would focus on providing information to state and local environmental agencies and to EPA Regional Offices in the areas of health, risk, and exposure assessment for toxic air pollutants. Technical information is fostered and disseminated by Air RISCs three primary activities: (1) a {open_quotes}hotline{close_quotes}, (2) quick turn-around technical assistance projects, and (3) general technical guidance projects. 1 ref., 2 figs.

  10. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  11. Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Halverson, T.G.

    1998-03-26

    The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context.

  12. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  13. Mathematical models for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaikin, S.A.

    1995-12-01

    The use of mathematical models in risk assessment results in the proper understanding of many aspects of chemical exposure and allows to make more actual decisions. Our project ISCRA (Integrated Systems of Complex Risk Assessment) has the aim to create integrated systems of algorythms for prediction of pollutants` exposure on human and environmental health and to apply them for environmental monitoring, and decision-making. Mathematical model {open_quotes}MASTER{close_quotes} (Mathematical Algorythm of SimulaTion of Environmental Risk) represents the complex of algorythmical blocks and is intended for the prediction of danger of pollutants` exposure for human and environmental risk. Model LIMES (LIMits EStimation) is developed for prognosis of safety concentrations of pollutants in the environment both in the case of isolated exposure and in the case of complex exposure for concrete location. Model QUANT (QUANtity of Toxicant) represents the multicompartmental physiological pharmacokinetic model describing absorption, distribution, fate, metabolism, and elimination of pollutants in the body of different groups of human population, as a result of the different kind of exposure. Decision support system CLEVER (Complex LEVE1 of Risk) predicts the probability and the degree of development of unfavourable effects as result of exposure of pollutant on human health. System is based on the data of epidemiological and experimental researches and includes several mathematical models for analysis of {open_quotes}dose-time-response{close_quotes} relations and information about clinical symptoms of diseases. Model CEP (Combination Effect Prognosis) contains probabilistic algorythms for forecasting the effect of simultaneous impact of several factors polluting the environment. The result of the program work is the prediction of an independent exposure of two or more factors, and intensification or weakening of exposure in depending on factors` interactions.

  14. River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA) Human Health Risk Assessment (Volume 2)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sands Jim Hansen U.S. Department of Energy - Richland Operations Office October 12, 2011 River Corridor Baseline Risk Assessment (RCBRA) Human Health Risk Assessment (Volume 2) * RCBRA Human Health Risk Assessment is final - Response provided to HAB advice #246 * RCBRA Ecological Risk Assessment (Draft C) was transmitted to regulators September 27 * Columbia River Component - Draft Ecological Screening Level Risk Assessment ready for regulator review - Draft Human health risk assessment will be

  15. Development and validation of instantaneous risk model in nuclear power plant's risk monitor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.

    2012-07-01

    The instantaneous risk model is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a risk monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous risk model. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline risk model to the instantaneous risk model were studied and separated trains' failure modes modeling method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's risk monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous risk model and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline risk model. (authors)

  16. Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document offers guidance on how to recognize and assign energy savings performance contract (ESPC) risks and responsibilities using the risk, responsibility, and performance matrix, also known as RRPM.

  17. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  18. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap. Product - Risk Handling Strategy. STEP 4 - Residual Risk Work off The risk handling strategy is entered into the Project Risk Allocation Tool (PRAT) to analyze each task for its ability to reduce risk. The result is risk-informed task prioritization. The risk handling strategy is captured in the Risk Management System, a relational database that provides conventional database utility, including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. The tool's Hierarchy Tree allows visualization and analyses of complex relationships between risks, risk mitigation tasks, design needs, and PIRTs. Product - Project Risk Allocation Tool and Risk Management System which depict project plan to reduce risk and current progress in doing so.

  19. Nuclear Facility Risk Ranking | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    risk-informed and balanced approach, the CNS performed a methodical assessment of the EM nuclear facilities. This risk-informed approach provides a data-driven foundation on which...

  20. RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL EXPERT WORKING GROUP

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Assessment Technical Expert Working Group (RWG) is established to assist the Department of Energy (DOE) with the appropriate and effective use of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear...

  1. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  2. EPA`s risk assessment guidelines: Overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patton, D.E.

    1990-12-31

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk assessment guidelines for cancer, quantification, and exposure issues are discussed.

  3. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-12-31

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance.

  4. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    OE is leading a State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better understand risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. As part of this Initiative, OE has developed a series of State and Regional Energy Risk Profiles that examine the relative magnitude of the risks that each State's energy infrastructure routinely encounters in comparison with the probable impacts.

  5. Risk and Realities | Jefferson Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk and Realities April 8, 2011 In previous articles this year, we have discussed some of the advances in different aspects of science that we are making at Jefferson Lab. It would be nice to think that this is our primary preoccupation day in and day out. Unfortunately, that is not the case; we actually spend a good fraction of our lives addressing the different ways that reality impinges or might impinge. At the All Hands meetings about a month ago, I mentioned the need for us to pay

  6. Systems approach to project risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kindinger, J. P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  7. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  8. Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix ...

  9. Microsoft PowerPoint - Financial Plan Risk Mitigation Master...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    within acceptable bounds BPA Financial Plan Workshop 5 Financial Plan Risk Metrics Agenda Origin of the Risk Metrics Issue History of risk mitigation measures and origin of...

  10. Seismic Analysis of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Seismic Analysis of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk Seismic Analysis of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk Seismic Analysis of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk Michael Salmon,...

  11. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation...

  12. First Capitol Risk Management LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Capitol Risk Management LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: First Capitol Risk Management, LLC Place: Galena, Illinois Zip: 61036 Product: First Capitol Risk Management...

  13. Risk Management Guide - DOE Directives, Delegations, and Requirements

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7A, Risk Management Guide by John Makepeace Functional areas: Risk Management, Safety and Security This Guide provides non-mandatory risk management approaches for implementing the...

  14. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  15. Document Number Q0029500 Baseline Risk Assessment Update 4.0 Baseline Risk Assessment Update

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Baseline Risk Assessment Update 4.0 Baseline Risk Assessment Update This section updates the human health and the ecological risk assessments that were originally presented in the 1998 RI (DOE 1998a). The impacts on the 1998 risk assessments are summarized in Section 2.9. 4.1 Human Health Risk Assessment Several activities completed since 1998 have contributed to changes in surface water and ground water concentrations. Activities that have impacted, or likely impacted surface water and ground

  16. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies. Revision 5/94

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which man is routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies. This report is not a risk assessment; nor does it contain instructions on how to do a risk assessment. Rather, it provides background information on how most of us think about risks and why it is difficult to do it rationally, it provides a philosophy and data with which to do a better job of judging risks more rationally, and it provides an overview of where risks of energy technologies fit within the spectrum of all risks. Much of the quantitative information provided here is on relative risk of dying of various causes. This is not because risk of dying is seen as the most important kind of risk, but because the statistics on mortality rates by cause are the highest quality data available on health risks in the general population.

  17. Need for An Integrated Risk Model | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Need for An Integrated Risk Model Need for An Integrated Risk Model Need for An Integrated Risk Model Michael Salmon, LANL PDF icon Need for An Integrated Risk Model More Documents...

  18. Information needs for risk management/communication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bennett, D.A.

    1990-12-31

    The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

  19. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  20. Compliance & Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Compliance & Risk Assessment Compliance & Risk Assessment PPPO scientists work to identify, analyze, and mitigate environmental hazards and risks to protect human health and safety and the environment. PPPO works proactively with state and federal regulatory agencies to ensure safe, effective, and compliant cleanup at the Sites. Regulatory Compliance Regulatory Agencies.png PPPO works with multiple regulatory agencies that promote safety and environmental quality regionally and

  1. Use of Risk-Based End States

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2003-07-15

    The policy addresses conducting cleanup that is aimed at, and achieves, clearly defined, risk-based end states. Canceled by DOE N 251.106.

  2. Summary - Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) External Technical Review of the Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP) Oak Ridge, TN Why DOE-EM Did...

  3. Innovative Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Water-Rock Interactions and Magnetotelluric Surveys Innovative Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk Through Integration of Water-Rock Interactions and ...

  4. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Each Federal agency: (a) shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and (b) shall ensure that its...

  5. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neilson, G. H.; Gruber, C. O.; Harris, J. H.; Rej, D. J.; Simmons, R. T.; Strykowsky, R. L.

    2009-07-21

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  6. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neilson, G. H.; Gruber, C. O.; Harris, Jeffrey H; Rej, D. J.; Simmons, R. T.; Strykowsky, R. L.

    2010-01-01

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and subassemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, which was established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-2008. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks were ultimately unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  7. Risk communication 101: Address fears, suppress chaos

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gots, R.E. )

    1993-01-01

    Improper risk communication can create more problems than the original event created and is a growing problem. Proper risk communication is a key area of crisis management and cannot be overlooked in this new age of chemical awareness. An environmental risk communicator should keep these factors in mind: never discount people's fears; rule out direct health threats, when possible; understand people's concerns; understand toxicology; be able to communicate. If you are responsible for hiring communicators, be sure to test them. Ask them how they would deal with a situation in which levels of a chemical are below those known to produce harm. A risk communicator must present this to people in an understanding fashion, be sensitive to human concerns and be knowledgeable about toxic risks.

  8. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  9. Determining risks for hazardous material operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cournoyer, M. E.; Dare, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    Integrated Safety Management (ISM) is structured to manage and control work at the activity level. Fundamental to ISM is that all work will be performed safely while meeting the applicable institutional-, facility-, and activity-level expectations. High and medium initial risk activities require certain levels of independent peer and/or Environmental, Health & Safety subject matter expert reviews prior to authorization. A key responsibility of line management and chemical workers is to assign initial risk adequately, so that the proper reviews are obtained. Thus, the effectiveness of an ISM system is largely dependent upon the adequacy and accuracy of this initial risk determination. In the following presentation, a Risk Determination Model (RDM) is presented for physical, health and ecological hazards associated with materials. Magnitude of exposure (Le., dose or concentration), frequency, duration, and quantity are the four factors most difficult to capture in a research and development setting. They are factored into the determination, as a function of the quantity of material. Quantity and magnitude of exposure components are simplified by using boundary criteria. This RDM will promote conformity and consistency in the assignment of risk to hazardous material activities. In conclusion, the risk assessors (line manager and chemical worker) should be capable of more accurately assessing the risk of exposure to a specific chemical with regard to the employee, public, and the environment.

  10. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as performed in PossibleRisk. [LEDTools] LEDTools is a general purpose linguistic evaluation tool and allows user defined universes of discourse and approximate reasoning rules, whereas PossibleRisk uses predefined universes of discourse (risk, attack, success, loss, and consequence) and rules. Also LEDTools has the capability to model a large number of threat scenarios with a graph and to integrate the scenarios (paths from the graph) into the linguistic evaluation. Example uses of PossibleRisk and LEDTools for the possibilistic evaluation of terrorist risk are provided in this report.

  11. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  12. Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

    1980-12-01

    Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

  13. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  14. DOE Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    risks across all levels of the organization, was developed by a public-private sector team that was led by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability and included...

  15. Risk assessment as a framework for decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rechard, Robert Paul; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Borns, David James

    2010-12-01

    The risk assessment approach has been applied to support numerous radioactive waste management activities over the last 30 years. A risk assessment methodology provides a solid and readily adaptable framework for evaluating the risks of CO2 sequestration in geologic formations to prioritize research, data collection, and monitoring schemes. This paper reviews the tasks of a risk assessment, and provides a few examples related to each task. This paper then describes an application of sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of a geologic repository for radioactive waste repository, which because of importance of the geologic barrier, is similar to CO2 sequestration. The paper ends with a simple stochastic analysis of idealized CO2 sequestration site with a leaking abandoned well and a set of monitoring wells in an aquifer above the CO2 sequestration unit in order to evaluate the efficacy of monitoring wells to detect adverse leakage.

  16. Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FEMA, 2015)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS (2015)) expands upon E.O. 11988, Floodplain Management, (1977) by directing that federal agencies use a higher vertical flood elevation and...

  17. ELECTRICITY SUBSECTOR CYBERSECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    CYBERSECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS U.S. Department of Energy May 2012 DOE/OE-0003 Acknowledgments This electricity subsector cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) guideline was developed by the Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Members of industry and utility-specific trade groups were included in authoring this guidance designed to be meaningful and

  18. Risk Management II Summit Agenda | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Risk Management II Summit Agenda Risk Management II Summit Agenda PDF icon Risk Management Summit Agenda.pdf More Documents & Publications ICAM Workshop Radio and Spectrum Management Ad Hoc Meetings

  19. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project:

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies | Department of Energy Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL and Associated Risk Studies Presentation from the May 2015 Seismic Lessons-Learned Panel Meeting. PDF icon INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Implementation of Proposed Methodology at INL

  20. Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, ...

  1. DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk...

  2. New Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline Now Available for Public Comment (March 2012) New Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline...

  3. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) The nation's ...

  4. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State and Regional...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    OE is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better understand risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed...

  5. Climate Risk and Financial Institutions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Corporation Topics: Finance, Co-benefits assessment Website: www.ifc.orgifcextsustainability.nsfAttachmentsByTitlepClimateRisk Climate Risk and Financial Institutions...

  6. List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Discussion List of Topics for Interagency Performance & Risk Assessment Community of...

  7. EO 13690: Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    690: Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and a Process for Further Soliciting and Considering Stakeholder Input EO 13690: Establishing a Federal Flood Risk...

  8. South Africa - Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for the...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for the Economy Jump to: navigation, search Name South Africa - Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for the Economy AgencyCompany...

  9. Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Risk to Bank Loans Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Global Climate Change: Risk to Bank Loans AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations...

  10. The Role Risk Assessments Have Played in Proposed CERCLA Decision...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Applicable Relevant and Appropriate Requirements Examples: Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, Air Emissions Regulations * Policy * Risk Assessment * Risk Management *...

  11. Milestone Reached: New Process Reduces Cost and Risk of Biofuel...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Milestone Reached: New Process Reduces Cost and Risk of Biofuel Production from Bio-Oil Upgrading Milestone Reached: New Process Reduces Cost and Risk of Biofuel Production from ...

  12. "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure Security and Resilience" Report (March 2013) "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy ...

  13. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative The Office of...

  14. UNEP-GEF Renewable Energy Project Financial Risk Management in...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GEF Renewable Energy Project Financial Risk Management in Developing Countries Jump to: navigation, search Name UNEP-GEF Renewable Energy Project Financial Risk Management in...

  15. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model - DOE Directives, Delegations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Model by Website Administrator The Enterprise Risk Management Model is a new standardized framework that the Department will be using to develop,...

  16. Risk Assessment in Support of DOE Nuclear Safety, Risk Information Notice, June 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On August 12, 2009, the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board(DNFSB) issued Recommendation 2009‐1, Risk Assessment Methodologies at Defense Nuclear Facilities. Thisrecommendation focused on the...

  17. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  18. Sitewide biological risk assessment Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska: Risks to terrestrial receptors from diverse contaminants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brandt, C.A.; Becker, J.M.

    1995-12-31

    Eielson Air Force Base (AFB) is located southeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. Eielson AFB was listed by the US Environmental Protection Agency on the National Priorities List with a total of 64 potential terrestrial and aquatic source areas. Contaminants of concern include fuel and fuel components, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and lead. As part of the remedial investigations of these sites, a biological risk assessment (BRA) was conducted to estimate the risk of ecological effects on terrestrial receptors posed by contaminants in the Eielson environment. There are 32 mammal species, 117 bird species, 17 fish species, and 1 amphibian species known to inhabit Eielson AFB and vicinity. The BRA screened source areas based on completed biological exposure pathways, selected receptors for analysis, estimated exposure of receptors to contaminants, and compared these exposures to known toxicological effects. Lower Garrison Slough and Flightline Pond posed a substantial risk for shrikes and goshawks. Ingestion of PCBs constituted the primary pathway/contaminant combination contributing to this risk. The effects of the various sources of uncertainty in the ingestion exposure calculations for these sites were evaluated in a probabilistic risk assessment using Monte Carlo methods. There was an 11% risk of reproductive effects from PCBs for goshawks feeding from Flightline Pond and a 25 % risk from lower Garrison Slough. There was an 81 % risk of reproductive effects from PCB exposure for shrikes feeding near lower Garrison Slough.

  19. Incinerator thermal release valve risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens, J.B.

    1998-12-31

    Human health risk assessments were conducted on emissions from several types of incinerators--a hazardous waste combustor, a medical waste/tire combustor, and a refuse derived fuel combustor in three different states. As part of these studies, the short-term emissions from thermal release valves operating during upset conditions were additionally evaluated. The latter assessments addressed two specific risk-related questions: (1) what are the incremental long-term risks/hazards associated with these short-term emissions; (2) what are the acute health hazards associated with these emissions? For each study, emission estimates for both the incinerator stack and the thermal release valve were obtained from the facility. Stack testing was utilized to obtain stack gas concentrations of emissions at one facility; engineering estimates were used to ascertain emissions from the thermal release valve. The two facilities were proposed incinerators, so literature-derived emissions were used throughout.

  20. Builtin vs. auxiliary detection of extrapolation risk.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Munson, Miles Arthur; Kegelmeyer, W. Philip,

    2013-02-01

    A key assumption in supervised machine learning is that future data will be similar to historical data. This assumption is often false in real world applications, and as a result, prediction models often return predictions that are extrapolations. We compare four approaches to estimating extrapolation risk for machine learning predictions. Two builtin methods use information available from the classification model to decide if the model would be extrapolating for an input data point. The other two build auxiliary models to supplement the classification model and explicitly model extrapolation risk. Experiments with synthetic and real data sets show that the auxiliary models are more reliable risk detectors. To best safeguard against extrapolating predictions, however, we recommend combining builtin and auxiliary diagnostics.

  1. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  2. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  3. Federal Flood Risk Management Standard | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Standard Federal Flood Risk Management Standard The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard builds upon Executive Order (E.O.) 11988 and is to be incorporated into existing Federal department and agency processes used to implement E.O. 11988. PDF icon FederalFloodRiskManagement.pdf More Documents & Publications Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (2015)

  4. Risk assessment based on point source deposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chadwick, G.F.

    1997-12-31

    The International Joint Commission (IJC) in a recently published report states that various clean-up techniques have resulted in significantly cleaner lakes than 20 years ago. Both the US EPA and Environment Canada have passed laws that require emissions controls on significant sources of contaminants. Improved emission controls have played a large part in the reduced pollution levels to the Great Lakes. Improved controls have significantly reduced the pollutants deposited to both land and water. This paper will discuss a Risk Analysis for the emissions from a Hospital in Rochester, New York. Current New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) regulations require emission controls on such incinerators. This hospital has added both a scrubber and a bag house to control emissions. Twenty years ago, such incinerators, like many other emission sources would not have had control devices. New York`s Department of Environmental Conservation requires, as part of the Permitting process, that an Impact Analysis and if required, a multipathway Health Risk Assessment (HRA) be performed for all Medical Waste Incinerators before a Permit can be issued. This insures that the emissions will not create a health hazard to humans. Such an analysis was performed for a new 1,000 lb/hr Medical Waste Incinerator (MWI) installed in the North-East part of Rochester, New York. An Air Quality Impact Assessment (AQIA) based on an actual stack test indicated that this facility`s dioxin emissions would exceed the NY DEC Guideline levels. The Carcinogenic Risk (of death) for our most exposed individual (MEI) was calculated to be 8.75 E{sup {minus}06} (<1:100,000). The Hazard Index calculated for this MEI was 0.43. Hazard Index`s less then 1 are considered a reasonable risk. Health risk assessments are by design, very conservative. EPA sources have concluded that calculated death risks between one (1) and one hundred (100) per million are not excessive.

  5. Need for an Integrated Risk Model

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Need for An Integrated Risk Model Michael Salmon, LANL Voice: 505-665-7244 Fax: 505-665-2897 salmon@lanl.gov 10/22/2008 p. 2, LA-UR 11-06023 Purpose * To highlight some observations on safety strategy when concerned with NPH * To encourage discussion and collaboration on the use of an integrated risk model at sites * To propose a test case for use of a sample case 10/22/2008 p. 3, LA-UR 11-06023 Observations * SAFER Comments of Peer Reviewers - There is a need to consider operator interaction -

  6. Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Carbon Capture and Storage » Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Simulation and Risk Assessment for Carbon Storage Research in simulation and risk assessment is focused on development of advanced simulation models of the subsurface and integration of the results into a risk assessment that includes both technical and programmatic risks. Simulation models are critical for predicting the flow of the CO2 in the target formations, chemical changes that may occur in the reservoir, and

  7. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    National Risk Assessment Parnership National Risk Assessment Partnership National Risk Assessment Partnership National Risk Assessment Partnership Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership 30 September 2012 NETL Technical Report Series NETL-TRS-NRAP-2012 Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or

  8. ESPC RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX ESPC RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX Document helps determine the risk, responsibility, and performance of a contractor's proposed approach under a Federal energy savings performance contract (ESPC). Microsoft Office document icon r_r_matrix.doc More Documents & Publications Recognizing and Assigning ESPC Risks and Responsibilities Using the Risk, Responsibility, and Performance Matrix M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification

  9. Communicating Health Risks Working Safely With Beryllium | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Communicating Health Risks Working Safely With Beryllium Communicating Health Risks Working Safely With Beryllium April 2002 Training Reference for Beryllium Workers and Managers/Supervisors, Facilitator Manual Prepared by the Beryllium Health Risk Communication Task Force PDF icon Communicating Health Risks Working Safely With Beryllium More Documents & Publications Communicating Health Risks Working Safely With Beryllium Beryllium Screening - Informed Choice Document Federal

  10. Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group The Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) is established to assist DOE in the appropriate and effective use of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear safety related activities. The activities of the group will help DOE ensure that risk assessments supporting nuclear safety decisions are conducted in a consistent manner, of appropriate quality, properly tailored to the needs of the

  11. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2008-12-12

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  12. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2009-01-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  13. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  14. Risk Communication Within the EM Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edelson, M.

    2003-02-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Management program (EM) conducts the most extensive environmental remediation effort in the world. The annual EM budgets have exceeded $6,000,000,000 for approximately ten years and EM has assumed responsibility for the cleanup of the largest DOE reservations (i.e., at Hanford, Washington, Aiken, South Carolina, and Idaho Falls, Idaho) as well as the facilities at Rocky Flats, Colorado and in Ohio. Each of these sites has areas of extensive radioactive and chemical contamination, numerous surplus facilities that require decontamination and removal, while some have special nuclear material that requires secure storage. The EM program has been criticized for being ineffective (1) and has been repeatedly reorganized to address perceived shortcomings. The most recent reorganization was announced in 2001 to become effective at the beginning of the 2003 Federal Fiscal Year (i.e., October 2002). It was preceded by a ''top to bottom'' review (TTBR) of the program (2) that identified several deficiencies that were to be corrected as a result of the reorganization. One prominent outcome of the TTBR was the identification of ''risk reduction'' as an organizing principle to prioritize the activities of the new EM program. The new program also sought to accelerate progress by identifying a set of critical activities at each site that could be accelerated and result in more rapid site closure, with attendant risk, cost, and schedule benefits. This paper investigates how the new emphasis on risk reduction in the EM program has been communicated to EM stakeholders and regulators. It focuses on the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) as a case study and finds that there is little evidence for a new emphasis on risk reduction in EM communications with RFETS stakeholders. Discussions between DOE and RFETS stakeholders often refer to ''risk,'' but the word serves as a placeholder for other concepts. Thus ''risk'' communication at RFETS is lively and involves important issues, but often does not inform participants about true ''risk reduction.''

  15. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  16. Risk transfer via energy savings insurance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, Evan

    2001-10-01

    Among the key barriers to investment in energy efficiency improvements are uncertainties about attaining projected energy savings and apprehension about potential disputes over these savings. The fields of energy management and risk management are thus intertwined. While many technical methods have emerged to manage performance risks (e.g. building commissioning), financial risk transfer techniques are less developed in the energy management arena than in other more mature segments of the economy. Energy Savings Insurance (ESI) - formal insurance of predicted energy savings - is one method of transferring financial risks away from the facility owner or energy services contractor. ESI offers a number of significant advantages over other forms of financial risk transfer, e.g. savings guarantees or performance bonds. ESI providers manage risk via pre-construction design review as well as post-construction commissioning and measurement and verification of savings. We found that the two mos t common criticisms of ESI - excessive pricing and onerous exclusions - are not born out in practice. In fact, if properly applied, ESI can potentially reduce the net cost of energy savings projects by reducing the interest rates charged by lenders, and by increasing the level of savings through quality control. Debt service can also be ensured by matching loan payments to projected energy savings while designing the insurance mechanism so that payments are made by the insurer in the event of a savings shortfall. We estimate the U.S. ESI market potential of $875 million/year in premium income. From an energy-policy perspective, ESI offers a number of potential benefits: ESI transfers performance risk from the balance sheet of the entity implementing the energy savings project, thereby freeing up capital otherwise needed to ''self-insure'' the savings. ESI reduces barriers to market entry of smaller energy services firms who do not have sufficiently strong balance sheets to self-insure th e savings. ESI encourages those implementing energy saving projects to go beyond standard, tried-and-true measures and thereby achieve more significant levels of energy savings; and ESI providers stand to be proponents of improved savings measurement and verification techniques, as well as maintenance, thereby contributing to national energy savings objectives and perhaps elevating the quality of information available for program evaluation. Governmental agencies have been pioneers in the use of ESI and could continue to play a role in developing this innovative risk-transfer mechanism. There is particular potential for linkages between ESI and the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) Buildings Program. It is likely that ENERGY STAR (registered trademark)-labeled commercial buildings (which have lower performance risk thanks to commissioning) would be attractive to providers of energy savings insurance. Conversely, the award of energy savings insurance to an ENERGY STAR (registered trade mark)-labeled building would raise the perceived credibility of the Label and energy savings attributed to the Program.

  17. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  18. Quantification of risks from technology for improved plant reliability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rode, D.M.

    1996-12-31

    One of the least understood and therefore appreciated threats to profitability are risks from power plant technologies such as steam generators, turbines, and electrical systems. To effectively manage technological risks, business decisions need to be based on knowledge. The scope of the paper describes a quantification or risk process that combines technical knowledge and judgments with commercial consequences. The three principle alternatives to manage risks as well as risk mitigation techniques for significant equipment within a power plant are reported. The result is to equip the decision maker with a comprehensive picture of the risk exposures enabling cost effective activities to be undertaken to improve a plant`s reliability.

  19. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  20. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  1. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  2. Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

    2015-09-01

    Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.

  3. Creating a Culture of Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    OE’s Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis Division is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to better understand potential impacts to energy infrastructure. The initiative is a collaborative effort with the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO), the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC), the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), and the National Governors Association (NGA). Below is a brochure describing the initiative.

  4. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM) - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  5. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  6. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy?s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user?s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  7. Evaluation of residue drum storage safety risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Conner, W.V.

    1994-06-17

    A study was conducted to determine if any potential safety problems exist in the residue drum backlog at the Rocky Flats Plant. Plutonium residues stored in 55-gallon drums were packaged for short-term storage until the residues could be processed for plutonium recovery. These residues have now been determined by the Department of Energy to be waste materials, and the residues will remain in storage until plans for disposal of the material can be developed. The packaging configurations which were safe for short-term storage may not be safe for long-term storage. Interviews with Rocky Flats personnel involved with packaging the residues reveal that more than one packaging configuration was used for some of the residues. A tabulation of packaging configurations was developed based on the information obtained from the interviews. A number of potential safety problems were identified during this study, including hydrogen generation from some residues and residue packaging materials, contamination containment loss, metal residue packaging container corrosion, and pyrophoric plutonium compound formation. Risk factors were developed for evaluating the risk potential of the various residue categories, and the residues in storage at Rocky Flats were ranked by risk potential. Preliminary drum head space gas sampling studies have demonstrated the potential for formation of flammable hydrogen-oxygen mixtures in some residue drums.

  8. Business risks to utilities as new nuclear power costs escalate

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Severance, Craig A.

    2009-05-15

    A nuclear power megaproject carries with it severe business risks. Despite attempts to shift these risks to taxpayers and ratepayers, ultimately there are no guarantees for utility shareholders. Utility management needs to keep some core principles in mind. (author)

  9. Assistant Director, Credit Modeling and Transaction Risk Management Division

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Risk Management Division (RMD) is the group within the U.S. Department of Energys Loan Program Office (LPO) that is responsible for oversight of all risks that have the potential to impede the...

  10. An Integrated Framework for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    An Integrated Framework for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis in CO2-EOR Sites Citation Details In-Document Search Title: An Integrated Framework for CO2 Accounting and Risk...

  11. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry Minimizing Risks...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    More Documents & Publications Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript Sustainability for the Global ...

  12. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript Webinar transcript. Microsoft Office document icon sustainability...

  13. Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosa, Eugene; Dietz, Tom; Moss, Richard H.; Atran, Scott; Moser, Susanne

    2012-04-07

    Society has difficult decisions to make about how best to allocate its resources to ensure future sustainability. Risk assessment can be a valuable tool: it has long been used to support decisions to address environmental problems. But in a time when the risks to sustainability range from climate change to terrorism, applying risk assessment to sustainability will require careful rethinking. For new threats, we will need a new approach to risk assessment.

  14. Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015. PDF icon Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Priorities More Documents & Publications 2014 Congressional Nuclear Cleanup Caucus Briefings OREM Hosts Community Workshop Status Updates on the Performance and Risk

  15. Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge Full Document and Summary Versions are available for download PDF icon Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge PDF icon Summary - Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP) Oak Ridge, TN More Documents & Publications Major Risk Factors to the Integrated Facility Disposition Project Compilation

  16. Major Risk Factors to the Integrated Facility Disposition Project |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy to the Integrated Facility Disposition Project Major Risk Factors to the Integrated Facility Disposition Project The scope of the Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP) needs to comprehensively address a wide range of environmental management risks at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORO). PDF icon Major Risk Factors to the Integrated Facility Disposition Project More Documents & Publications Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge

  17. Microsoft Word - Appendix B_RiskAssessmenr.doc

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Risk Assessment Information U.S. Department of Energy Weldon Spring Site LTS&M Plan July 2005 Doc. No. S0079000 Page B-3 Summary of Post-Remediation Risk Status at the Weldon Spring Site Baseline risk assessments addressing both human health and ecological risks were performed as part of the remedial investigation phase of the remedial investigation/feasibility study processes conducted. A limited assessment was performed for the Quarry Bulk Waste Operable Unit (OU) consistent with the

  18. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total failure that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares, (e.g., Seafood Spoilage Predictor) have evolved the use of information systems in the food safety management. Such tools are updateable with new food-pathogen specific models containing cardinal parameters and multiple dependent variables, including plate counts, concentration of metabolic products, or even expression levels of certain genes. Then, these tools may further serve as decision-support tools which may assist in product logistics, based on their scientifically-based and momentary expressed spoilage and safety level.

  19. Innovative Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk Through

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Water-Rock Interactions and Magnetotelluric Surveys | Department of Energy Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk Through Integration of Water-Rock Interactions and Magnetotelluric Surveys Innovative Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk Through Integration of Water-Rock Interactions and Magnetotelluric Surveys Innovative Computational Tools for Reducing Exploration Risk Through Integration of Water-Rock Interactions and Magnetotelluric Surveys

  20. The building codes and the forgotten basics of risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norte, M.

    1995-12-01

    Building codes specifically developed to identify and manage chronic, endemic, facilities, risks, and the information and monitoring resources that must support them, are fundamental elements of a broadly based and comprehensive system of conventional risk management and compliance processes. This presentation discusses the proper role of building codes in atruly mature risk management and regulatory compliance strategy.

  1. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry Minimizing Risks and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Maximizing Opportunities | Department of Energy Industry Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Conservation International presentation for the May 17, 2011 webinar. PDF icon conservation_international_presentation.pdf More Documents & Publications Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript Sustainability for the

  2. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakagemore » simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.« less

  3. Risks of LNG and LPG. [Review

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fay, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    Since the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) as fuels is likely to increase and will certainly persist for some time to come, assessment of the safety of LNG/LPG systems will continue to draw attention and is quite likely to force continuing review of operating and design standards for LNG/LPG facilities. Scientific investigations to date appear to have identified the major hazards. Except for the dispersive behavior of vapor clouds - a not-insignificant factor in risk evaluation - the consequences of spills are well circumscribed by current analyses. The physically significant effects accompanying nonexplosive combustion of spilled material are fairly well documented; yet, potentially substantial uncertainties remain. Catastrophic spills of 10/sup 4/-10/sup 5/ m/sup 3/ on land or water are possible, given the current size of storage vessels. Almost all experimental spills have used less than 10 m/sup 3/ of liquid. There is thus some uncertainty regarding the accuracy and validity of extrapolation of current empirical information and physical models to spills of catastrophic size. The less-likely but still-possible explosive or fireball combustion modes are not well understood in respect to their inception. The troubling experience with such violent combustion of similar combustible vapors suggests that this possibility will need further definition. Extant LNG and LPG risk analyses illustrate the difficulties of substantiating the numerous event probabilities and the determination of all event sequences that can lead to hazardous consequences. Their disparate results show that significant improvements are needed. Most importantly, a detailed critique of past efforts and a determination of an exhaustive set of criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a risk analysis should precede any further attempts to improve on existing studies. 44 references, 1 table.

  4. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  5. NREL: Speeches - Nation's Energy Future at Risk

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Future at Risk, National Lab Director Says For more information contact: George Douglas, 303-275-4096 e:mail: George Douglas Washington, D.C., July 27, 1999 — America must invest in its energy future now, Richard Truly, director of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory said today. Otherwise, he said, the nation could face supply shortages and fall behind foreign competitors. Truly, speaking at the National Press Club's Newsmakers program, said that U.S.

  6. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  7. A risk assessment software tool for evaluating potential risks to human health and the environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Drendel, G.; Allen, B.; Gentry, R.; Shipp, A.; Van Landingham, C.

    1994-12-31

    The Ecology and National Environmental Policy Act Division (END), is providing a sitewide evaluation of alternative strategies for the final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant material inventory. This analysis is known as the Systems Engineering Analysis (SEA) for the Rocky Flats Plant. The primary intent of the SEA is to support the Rocky Flats Plant decision-making. As part of the SEA project, a risk assessment software tool has been developed which will assist in the analysis by providing an evaluation of potential risks to human health and the environment for the purpose of augmenting future decisions at the site.

  8. Reducing Risk for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John M. Beck II; Harold J. Heydt; Emmanuel O. Opare; Kyle B. Oswald

    2010-07-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project, managed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is directed by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, to research, develop, design, construct, and operate a prototype forth generation nuclear reactor to meet the needs of the 21st Century. As with all large projects developing and deploying new technologies, the NGNP has numerous risks that need to be identified, tracked, mitigated, and reduced in order for successful project completion. A Risk Management Plan (RMP) was created to outline the process the INL is using to manage the risks and reduction strategies for the NGNP Project. Integral to the RMP is the development and use of a Risk Management System (RMS). The RMS is a tool that supports management and monitoring of the project risks. The RMS does not only contain a risk register, but other functionality that allows decision makers, engineering staff, and technology researchers to review and monitor the risks as the project matures.

  9. Risk assessment of landfill disposal sites - State of the art

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Butt, Talib E. Lockley, Elaine; Oduyemi, Kehinde O.K.

    2008-07-01

    A risk assessment process can assist in drawing a cost-effective compromise between economic and environmental costs, thereby assuring that the philosophy of 'sustainable development' is adhered to. Nowadays risk analysis is in wide use to effectively manage environmental issues. Risk assessment is also applied to other subjects including health and safety, food, finance, ecology and epidemiology. The literature review of environmental risk assessments in general and risk assessment approaches particularly regarding landfill disposal sites undertaken by the authors, reveals that an integrated risk assessment methodology for landfill gas, leachate or degraded waste does not exist. A range of knowledge gaps is discovered in the literature reviewed to date. From the perspective of landfill leachate, this paper identifies the extent to which various risk analysis aspects are absent in the existing approaches.

  10. Risk, media, and stigma at Rocky Flats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flynn, J.; Peters, E.; Mertz, C.K.; Slovic, P.

    1998-12-01

    Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of technological stigma that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the US Department of energy`s Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation`s nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.

  11. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersion 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.

  12. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 76.8 Bq m{sup ?3} to 571.1 251.4 Bq m{sup ?3}, 101.0 41.0 Bq m{sup ?3} to 245.3 100.2 Bq m{sup ?3}, 53.1 7.5 Bq m{sup ?3} to 181.8 9.7 Bq m{sup ?3}, 256.1 59.3 Bq m{sup ?3} to 652.2 222.2 Bq m{sup ?3} and 164.5 75.9 Bq m{sup ?3} to 653.3 240.0 Bq m{sup ?3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 194.3 Bq m{sup ?3}, 192.1 75.4 Bq m{sup ?3}, 176.1 85.9 Bq m{sup ?3} and 28.4 5.7 Bq m{sup ?3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m{sup ?3} proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas, all building material samples have exceeded the radon concentration in concrete and building materials of 3 to 7 Bq m{sup ?3} estimated by ICRP. The annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, and radon exhalation rates in tin tailings were calculated to be in the range of 2.47 to 11.46 mSv, 5.94 to 1090.56 mSv y{sup ?1}, and 0.23 to 1.18 mBq kg{sup ?1} h{sup ?1}. For building materials, the calculated risk assessment of the annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk were 0.72 to 10.00 mSv, 1.73 to 24.00 mSv y{sup ?1}, 0.010 to 0.06 mBq kg{sup ?1} h{sup ?1} and 40 to 550 chances of persons will suffer the cancer per million (1 10{sup 6}), respectively.

  13. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ``scores`` and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process.

  14. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruno, Michael

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  15. Continuing Developments in PV Risk Management: Strategies, Solutions, and Implications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lowder, T.; Mendelsohn, M.; Speer, B.; Hill, R.

    2013-02-01

    As the PV industry matures, successful risk management practices will become more imperative to ensure investor confidence, control costs, and facilitate further growth. This report discusses several key aspects of risk management during the commercial- and utility-scale project life cycle, from identification of risks, to the process of mitigating and allocating those risks among project parties, to transferring those risks through insurance. The report also explores novel techniques in PV risk management, options to offload risks onto the capital markets, and innovative insurance policies (namely warranty policies) that address risks unique to the PV sector. One of the major justifications for robust risk management in the PV industry is the cost-reduction opportunities it affords. If the PV industry can demonstrate the capability to successfully manage its risks, thereby inspiring confidence in financiers, it may be able to obtain a lower cost of capital in future transactions. A lower cost of capital translates to a lower cost of energy, which will in turn enhance PV?s competitiveness at a time when it will have to rely less on subsidies to support its market penetration.

  16. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  17. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  18. Risk analysis of an LPG facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daley, H.F.; Chapman, P.D.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes methods used to conduct a safety review of an existing LPG loading, processing, and storage facility. An engineering team conducted a Hazard and Operability study of the plant to identify potential problems. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment was also made on the facility where the probability and consequences of worst case accidents were estimated. Stone and Webster recently completed an analysis of an LPG terminal to determine if there were any engineering, design, or operating deficiencies which could jeopardize the operability of the facility or make operation hazardous. The facility includes a dock for off-loading refrigerated propane and butane, transfer piping from the dock to storage, a heating system, pressurized storage, dehydration, product transfer and loading.

  19. Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

    2011-11-01

    As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operating plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.

  20. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  1. Recommendation 206: Asses risks and benefits | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    6: Asses risks and benefits Recommendation 206: Asses risks and benefits The ORSSAB recommends DOE assess the risks and benefits associated with the transportation of hazardous materials by truck and rail. PDF icon Recommendation 206 PDF icon DOE response to recommendation 206 More Documents & Publications EM SSAB Recommendations and Letters - 2011-03 2011-03 "Using Rail transport for Moving Waste" EIS-0380-SA-01: Supplement Analysis

  2. EM Risk and Cleanup Decision Making Presentation by Mark Gilbertson

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    RISK AND CLEANUP DECISION MAKING www.em.doe.gov 1 Mark Gilbertson Deputy Assistant Secretary for Site Restoration Office of Environmental Management May 31, 2012 Presented to Environmental Management Advisory Board Topics * How we got to where we are * Existing environment and health risk www.em.doe.gov 2 * Existing environment and health risk analysis to support decision-making * Considerations going forward The Past Five Years * FY2008 budget assumed ~$6 billion escalated for inflation over

  3. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    BPA's operating environment is filled with numerous uncertainties, and thus the rate-setting process must take into account a wide spectrum of risks. The objective of the Risk Analysis is to identify, model, and analyze the impacts that key risks have on BPA's net revenue (total revenues less total expenses). This is carried out in two distinct steps: a risk analysis step, in which the distributions, or profiles, of operating and non operating risks are defined, and a risk mitigation step, in which different rate tools are tested to assess their ability to recover BPA's costs in the face of this uncertainty. Two statistical models are used in the risk analysis step for this rate proposal, the Risk Analysis Model (RiskMod), and the Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM), while a third model, the ToolKit, is used to test the effectiveness of rate tools options in the risk mitigation step. RiskMod is discussed in Sections 2.1 through 2.4, the NORM is discussed in Section 2.5, and the ToolKit is discussed in Section 3. The models function together so that BPA can develop rates that cover all of its costs and provide a high probability of making its Treasury payments on time and in full during the rate period. By law, BPA's payments to Treasury are the lowest priority for revenue application, meaning that payments to Treasury are the first to be missed if financial reserves are insufficient to pay all bills on time. For this reason, BPA measures its potential for recovering costs in terms of probability of being able to make Treasury payments on time (also known as Treasury Payment Probability or TPP).

  4. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program. PDF icon 41156.pdf More Documents & Publications U.S. DOE Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) Webinar Presentation

  5. DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix Earned Value Management (EVM) is a systematic approach to the integration and measurement of cost, schedule, and technical (scope) accomplishments on a project or task. It provides both the government and contractors the ability to examine detailed schedule information, critical program and technical milestones, and cost data. File DOE EVMS Risk Assessment Matrix More Documents & Publications Enhancing Earned Value (EV) Analysis

  6. Applying Risk Communication to the Transportation of Radioactive Materials

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy Applying Risk Communication to the Transportation of Radioactive Materials Applying Risk Communication to the Transportation of Radioactive Materials Participants should expect to gain the following skills: How to recognize how the stakeholders prefer to receive information How to integrate risk communication principles into individual communication How to recognize the importance of earning trust and credibility How to identify stakeholders How to answer questions

  7. DOE Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (RMP) Guideline | Department of Energy Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline DOE Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline May 23, 2012 - 9:30am Addthis News Media Contact: (202) 586-4940 For Immediate Release: May 23, 2012 Department of Energy Releases Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline Public-Private Sector Collaboration Produces Guidance to Help Electric Utilities

  8. A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This resource handbook was compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group. This document includes the first of a planned series of discussion papers on topical aspects of transportation risk problems. These discussion papers are intended to provide practical advice to program managers and technical personnel responsible for preparing NEPA documents and other transportation risk assessments.

  9. Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline - Final (May 2012) |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Department of Energy Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline - Final (May 2012) Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline - Final (May 2012) This electricity subsector cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) guideline was developed by the Department of Energy, in collaboration with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The RMP is written with the goal of enabling organizations-

  10. A Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment (DOE, 2002)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This resource handbook was compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group. This document includes the first of a planned series of discussion papers on topical aspects of transportation risk problems. These discussion papers are intended to provide practical advice to program managers and technical personnel responsible for preparing NEPA documents and other transportation risk assessments.

  11. Extreme Temperature Energy Storage and Generation, for Cost and Risk

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Reduction in Geothermal Exploration | Department of Energy Extreme Temperature Energy Storage and Generation, for Cost and Risk Reduction in Geothermal Exploration Extreme Temperature Energy Storage and Generation, for Cost and Risk Reduction in Geothermal Exploration Extreme Temperature Energy Storage and Generation, for Cost and Risk Reduction in Geothermal Exploration presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado. PDF icon fast_cap_sys_peer2013.pdf More

  12. Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) Awareness Toolkit | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) Awareness Toolkit Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) Awareness Toolkit The Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) Resource Center developed the SCRM Awareness Toolkit to introduce DOE employees to the basic terms and concepts of the technology supply chain and associated threats. For additional information on the DOE Enterprise SCRM Resource Center and program initiatives, please contact Sue Farrand at

  13. Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (2015) | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Standard (2015) Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (2015) The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS (2015)) expands upon E.O. 11988, Floodplain Management, (1977) by directing that federal agencies use a higher vertical flood elevation and corresponding horizontal floodplain for federally funded projects to address current and future flood risk and ensure that projects last as long as intended. The FFRMS provides 3 approaches that federal agencies can use to define a floodplain for

  14. Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation MISSION The Office of Risk Analysis and Program Evaluation provides analysis and evaluation of the performance of the Office of Enterprise Assessments (EA) in meeting its missions of providing Departmental independent assessments, enforcement and training including the impact of the Office activities on the ability of the Department to meet its missions. The Office also provides analysis of major Departmental and

  15. Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, limiting, and managing the risks of proliferation and physical security for fuel cycle options. NE, in collaboration with National Nuclear Security Administration, will focus on assessments required to inform domestic fuel cycle technology and system option development, partnering with other organizations to share

  16. Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Making | Department of Energy Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making May 22, 2015 - 3:28pm Addthis Alice Lippert Alice Lippert Senior Technical Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better

  17. Financial Risk, Policy & Controls | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Financial Risk, Policy & Controls Financial Risk, Policy & Controls The mission of the Office of Financial Risk, Policy and Controls (CF-50) is to contribute to the effective management of the financial resources of the Department of Energy by working in collaboration with our stakeholders, we will achieve the shared goal of continuous process improvement while complying with federal regulations. As stewards of taxpayers' money, we will be an objective source of internal controls

  18. Comment to NOI re Retrospective Risk Pooling Program For Suppliers |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy to NOI re Retrospective Risk Pooling Program For Suppliers Comment to NOI re Retrospective Risk Pooling Program For Suppliers Comment by Cameco Resources On Retrospective Risk Pooling Program For Suppliers, 75 Fed. Reg. 43945 (July 27, 2010), Section 934 Rule Making. As discussed below, Cameco believes that producers and providers of uranium concentrates and UF6 conversion services, whether directly or as an intermediary, should be excluded from the definition of nuclear

  19. DOE Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 | Department of Energy Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 DOE Draft Standard, Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Applications, 12/10 The Department has taken several actions to provide an infrastructure for providing appropriate controls and support for use of risk assessments and

  20. Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment Webinar: Genetically Modified Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment Genetically Modified (GM) Algae: A Risk-Benefit Assessment PDF icon gm_algae_webinar_october_2014 More Documents & Publications National Alliance for Advanced Biofuels and Bioproducts Synopsis (NAABB) Final Report National Alliance for Advanced Biofuels and Bioproducts Synopsis (NAABB) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program: 2002

  1. An Integrated Framework for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: Environmental Sciences(54) Environmental Protection; CO2 Accounting, Risk Analysis, CO2 Sequestration, Sensitivity...

  2. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Introduction slides for the webinar describing bioenergy and sustainability. PDF icon ...

  3. Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. ...

  4. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    risks to their energy infrastructure so they can be better prepared to make informed decisions about their investments, resilience and hardening strategies, and asset management. ...

  5. Radiation and Chemical Risk Management | Argonne National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RESRAD: Family of Risk Codes Latest News Battelle shows off technology to cope with terror attacks Columbus Dispatch Energy efficiency: National labs try to cut energy bills...

  6. Global Framework for Climate Risk Exposure | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    October 2006. Investors require this information in order to analyze a company's business risks and opportunities resulting from climate change, as well as the company's...

  7. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  8. Advanced Risk Management (FQN 301), SRS | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Advanced Risk Management (FQN 301), SRS Advanced Risk Management (FQN 301), SRS May 10, 2016 8:00AM EDT to May 13, 2016 5:00PM EDT Advanced Risk Management Level 3 Required Course 3.5 days / 28 CLPs The purpose of this course is to provide the Federal Project Director with an advanced understanding of the concepts and applications of risk and opportunity management, within the context of federally managed Department of Energy acquisition projects. This course improves Federal Project Directors'

  9. Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    peer guidance andor recommendations for P&RAs such that they are based on sound science and are defensible. PDF icon Interagency Performance and Risk Assessment ...

  10. Security Risk Assessment Methodologies (RAM) for Critical Infrastructu...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Building Energy Efficiency Find More Like This Return to Search Security Risk Assessment Methodologies (RAM) for Critical Infrastructures Sandia National Laboratories...

  11. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  12. Sandia Energy - DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments Home Infrastructure Security Infrastructure Assurance Facilities News NISAC News & Events Research & Capabilities Modeling...

  13. Proliferation Risk Reduction Study of Alternative Spent Fuel Processing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari,R.A.; Phillips, J.; Pilat, J.; Rochau, G.; Therios, I.; Wigeland, R.; Wonder, E.; Zentner, M.

    2009-07-12

    This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the relative proliferation risks of particular reprocessing technologies focusing on COEX, UREX+, and pyroprocessing

  14. Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities for the Finance Sector...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Finance Sector Online Course Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities for the Finance Sector Online Course Agency...

  15. DOE (Department of Energy) risk assessment worksheets: A structured approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-09-01

    This volume consists of the worksheets for each step in completing the guideline. This guideline outlines the approach to conducting risk assessments of computer security. (JEF)

  16. The Low Risk Site Handbook for Erosion Prevention and Sediment...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Low Risk Site Handbook for Erosion Prevention and Sediment Control Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance - Guide...

  17. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W. A. Owca

    2007-06-21

    This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP).

  18. Milestone Reached: New Process Reduces Cost and Risk of Biofuel...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    a bio-oil intermediate into biofuel, making the conversion process expensive. Battelle's new process substantially reduces the cost and risk of biofuel production and helps make ...

  19. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  20. The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order...

  1. Risk-Based Sensor Placement Methodology - Energy Innovation Portal

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Advanced Materials Find More Like This Return to Search Risk-Based Sensor Placement Methodology Providing Optimal Monitoring of Hazardous Releases Oak Ridge National Laboratory...

  2. Assessing the health risk of solar development on contaminated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    published report from Argonne's Environmental Science (EVS) division presents a methodology for assessing potential human health risks of developing utility-scale solar...

  3. Secretary Bodman Announces Federal Risk Insurance for Nuclear...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The rule will be available on DOE's web site soon. "Providing federal risk insurance is an important step in speeding the nuclear renaissance in this country," Secretary Bodman ...

  4. October 13, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach |

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy 3, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach October 13, 2015 Webinar - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach Performance & RIsk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Webinar - October 13, 2015 - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach by Mr. Stuart Walker, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2-3 pm Eastern Time. PDF icon Agenda - October 13, 2015 - P&RA CoP Webinar PDF icon Presentation - U.S. EPA Superfund Remedial Program's Approach

  5. Reducing Cyber Risk to Critical Infrastructure: NIST Framework...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    directed the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to work with stakeholders to develop a voluntary Framework for reducing cyber risks to critical...

  6. Energy Risk Predictions for the 2015 Hurricane Season (June 2015)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation is from a DOE-NASEO webinar held June 23, 2015, on forecasting energy infrastructure risk for the 2015 hurricane season.

  7. Risk Informed Margins Management as part of Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith

    2014-06-01

    The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.

  8. Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denman, Matthew R; Groth, Katrina; Cardoni, Jeffrey N; Wheeler, Timothy A.

    2015-01-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self - correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the syste m's design to manage the accident. While inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety , thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayes ian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author s would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of E nergy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR - 14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at A rgonne N ational L aborator y , O ak R idge N ational L aborator y , and I daho N ational L aborator y for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  9. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  10. Limiting Future Proliferation and Security Risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bari, R.

    2011-03-13

    A major new technical tool for evaluation of proliferation and security risks has emerged over the past decade as part the activities of the Generation IV International Forum. The tool has been developed by a consensus group from participating countries and organizations and is termed the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Evaluation Methodology. The methodology defines a set of challenges, analyzes system response to these challenges, and assesses outcomes. The challenges are the threats posed by potential actors (proliferant states or sub-national adversaries). It is of paramount importance in an evaluation to establish the objectives, capabilities, resources, and strategies of the adversary as well as the design and protection contexts. Technical and institutional characteristics are both used to evaluate the response of the system and to determine its resistance against proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and terrorism threats. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of a set of measures, which thereby define the PR&PP characteristics of the system. This paper summarizes results of applications of the methodology to nuclear energy systems including reprocessing facilities and large and small modular reactors. The use of the methodology in the design phase a facility will be discussed as it applies to future safeguards concepts.

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Surry Unit 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Breeding, R.J. ); Helton, J.C. ); Murfin, W.B. ); Smith, L.N. )

    1990-10-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Surry Power Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in southeastern Virginia, is operated by the Virginia Electric Power Corp. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. This document, Volume 3, Revision 1, Part 2, provides Appendices A through E to this report. These appendices contain: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; the source term analysis; the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information.

  12. Risk communications and the Chemical Stockpile Emergency-Planning Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogt, B.M.; Sorensen, J.H.

    1994-09-01

    The CSEPP (Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program) was created to improve emergency planning and response capabilities at the eight sites around the country that store chemical weapons. These weapons are scheduled to be destroyed in the near future. In preparation of the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (DPEIS) for the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), it was proposed that the Army mitigate accidents through an enhanced community emergency preparedness program at the eight storage sites. In 1986, the Army initiated the development of an Emergency Response Concept Plan (ERCP) for the CSDP, one of 12 technical support studies conducted during preparation of the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (FPEIS). The purpose of this document is to provide a fairly comprehensive source book on risk, risk management, risk communication research and recommended risk communication practices. It does not merely summarize each publication in the risk communication literature, but attempts to synthesize them along the lines of a set of organizing principles. Furthermore, it is not intended to duplicate other guidance manuals (such as Covello et al.`s manual on risk comparison). The source book was developed for the CSEPP in support of the training module on risk communications. Although the examples provided are specific to CSEPP, its use goes beyond that of CSEPP as the findings apply to a broad spectrum of risk communication topics. While the emphasis is on communication in emergency preparedness and response specific to the CSEPP, the materials cover other non-emergency communication settings. 329 refs.

  13. RELATIVE PROLIFERATION RISKS FOR NUCLEAR FUEL LEASING ARRANGEMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CHENG,L.Y.; YUE, M.; BARI, R.A.

    2007-10-01

    The present study demonstrates a probabilistic approach to quantify the proliferation risks of fuel leasing and recycling. A Markov model approach is applied to evaluate the probability of proliferation success by diversion or theft. Proliferation risk is calculated as a product of the probability of success and the corresponding consequences.

  14. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  15. The effect of bright lines in environmental risk communication

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, K.N.; Desvousges, W.H.; Smith, K.V.; Payne, J. )

    1993-01-01

    Bright lines in environmental risk communication refer to the specific levels at which an environmental risk becomes a serious health threat and action should be taken to mitigate its effects. This study examined the effect of bright lines'' in risk communication by emphasizing the radon exposure threshold level of 4 picocuries per liter. Specifically, the authors developed a computer-assisted interview containing bright-line versions of risk information. The bright-line version contained a range of possible radon levels, the corresponding number of estimated lung cancer cases, the relative health risk from radon compared to other health risks, and the EPA guidelines for mitigating levels above 4 picocuries in the home. The non-bright line version was identical to the bright-line version, except it did not include the EPA's mitigation recommendations. Effect measures included respondents' change in perceived risk after reading their materials, intended testing behavior, and advice to their neighbor for a specified radon level either above or below the 4 picocury threshold level. This paper discusses broader policy implications for designing effective risk communication programs.

  16. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  17. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript | Department of Energy Opportunities Webinar Transcript Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript Webinar transcript. Microsoft Office document icon sustainability_global_biofuels_webinar.doc More Documents & Publications Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities 2009 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study -

  18. Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Maximizing Opportunities | Department of Energy Opportunities Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Introduction slides for the webinar describing bioenergy and sustainability. PDF icon sustainability_biofuels_webinar_intro.pdf More Documents & Publications Sustainability for the Global Biofuels Industry: Minimizing Risks and Maximizing Opportunities Webinar Transcript Market Drivers for Biofuels Biomass Program Perspectives on

  19. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  20. Overview of DOE-NE Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadasivan, Pratap

    2012-08-24

    Research objectives are: (1) Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors; (2) Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy; (3) Develop Sustainable Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and (4) Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The goal is to enable the use of risk information to inform NE R&D program planning. The PTRA program supports DOE-NE's goal of using risk information to inform R&D program planning. The FY12 PTRA program is focused on terrorism risk. The program includes a mix of innovative methods that support the general practice of risk assessments, and selected applications.

  1. Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.; Dyer, G.; Johnson, N.; McSwain, J. T.

    2011-02-01

    A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.

  2. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  3. Risk management of undesirable substances in feed following updated risk assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Verstraete, Frans

    2013-08-01

    Directive 2002/32/EC of 7 May 2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council on undesirable substances in animal feed is the framework for the EU action on undesirable substances in feed. This framework Directive provides: ?that products intended for animal feed may enter for use in the Union from third countries, be put into circulation and/or used in the Union only if they are sound, genuine and of merchantable quality and therefore when correctly used do not represent any danger to human health, animal health or to the environment or could adversely affect livestock production. ?that in order to protect animal and public health and the environment, maximum levels for specific undesirable substances shall be established where necessary. ?for mandatory consultation of a scientific body (EFSA) for all provisions which may have an effect upon public health or animal health or on the environment. ?that products intended for animal feed containing levels of an undesirable substance that exceed the established maximum level may not be mixed for dilution purposes with the same, or other, products intended for animal feed and may not be used for the production of compound feed. Based on the provisions and principles laid down in this framework Directive, maximum levels for a whole range of undesirable substances have been established at EU level. During the discussions in view of the adoption of Directive 2002/32/EC, the European Commission made the commitment to review all existing provisions on undesirable substances on the basis of updated scientific risk assessments. Following requests of the European Commission, the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has completed a series of 30 risk assessments undertaken over the last 5 years on undesirable substances in animal feed reviewing the possible risks for animal and human health due to the presence of these substances in animal feed. EU legislation on undesirable substances has undergone recently several changes to take account of these most recent scientific opinions. Furthermore EFSA has assessed the risks for public and animal health following the unavoidable carry-over of coccidiostats into non target feed. Maximum levels for the unavoidable carry-over have been established for the non-target feed and the food of animal origin from non-target animal species.

  4. A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

    1994-12-31

    A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of its limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.

  5. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational and non-operational risks will be described in Section 2.0 of this study. Given these risks, if rates are designed using BPA's traditional approach of only adding Planned Net Revenues for Risk (PNRR), power rates would need to recover a much larger ''risk premium'' to meet BPA's TPP standard. As an alternative to high fixed risk premiums, BPA is proposing a risk mitigation package that combines PNRR with a variable rate mechanism similar to the cost recovery adjustment mechanisms used in the FY 2002-2006 rate period. The proposed risk mitigation package is less expensive on a forecasted basis because the rates can be adjusted on an annual basis to respond to uncertain financial outcomes. BPA is also proposing a Dividend Distribution Clause (DDC) to refund reserves in excess of $800M to customers in the event net revenues in the next rate period exceed current financial forecasts.

  6. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  7. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  8. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Caudell, Thomas P.; Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O.; Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  9. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the lived values of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  10. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated risk assessment that could assist in the EM prioritization efforts. (authors)

  11. Uraniferous Phosphates: Resource, Security Risk, or Contaminant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LeMone, D.V.; Goodell, Ph.C.; Gibbs, S.G.; Winston, J.W.

    2008-07-01

    The escalation of the price of uranium (U) yellow cake (summer high = $130/0.454 kg (lb) has called into question the continuing availability of sufficient stockpiles and ores to process. As was developed during the years following World War II, the establishment and maintenance of a strategic inventory is a reasonable consideration for today. Therefore, it becomes critical to look at potential secondary resources beyond the classical ore suites now being utilized. The most economically viable future secondary source seems to be the byproducts of the beneficiation of phosphoric acids derived from phosphate ores. Phosphorous (P) is an essential nutrient for plants; its deficiency can result in highly restrictive limitations in crop productivity. Acidic soils in tropical and subtropical regions of the world are often P deficient with high P-sorption (fixation) capacities. To correct this deficiency, efficient water-soluble P fertilizers are required. The use of raw phosphate rocks not only adds phosphate but also its contained contaminants, including uranium to the treated land. Another immediate difficulty is phosphogypsum, the standard byproduct of simple extraction. It, for practical purposes, has been selectively classified as TENORM by regulators. The imposition of these standards presents major current and future disposal and re-utilization problems. Therefore, establishing an economically viable system that allows for uranium byproduct extraction from phosphoric acids is desirable. Such a system would be dependent on yellow cake base price stability, reserve estimates, political conditions, nation-state commitment, and dependence on nuclear energy. The accumulation of yellow cake from the additional extraction process provides a valuable commodity and allows the end acid to be a more environmentally acceptable product. The phosphogypsum already accumulated, as well as that which is in process, will not make a viable component for a radiation disposal devise (RDD). Concern for weapon proliferation by rogue nation states from the byproduct production of yellowcake is an unlikely scenario. To extract the fissile U-235 (0.07%) isotope from the yellowcake (99.3%) requires the erection of a costly major gaseous diffusion or a cascading centrifuge facility. Such a facility would be extremely difficult to mask. Therefore, from a diminished security risk and positive economic and environmental viewpoints, the utilization of a phosphoric acid beneficiation process extracting uranium is desirable. (authors)

  12. Risk assessment activities at NIOSH: Information resources and needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B.

    1990-12-31

    Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

  13. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dourson, M.L.

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  14. New Technical Risk Management Development for Carbon Capture Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Letellier, Bruce; Edwards, Brian; Leclaire, Rene; Jones, Edward

    2012-04-30

    The basic CCSI objective of accelerating technology development and commercial deployment of carbon capture technologies through the extensive use of numerical simulation introduces a degree of unfamiliarity and novelty that potentially increases both of the traditional risk elements. In order to secure investor confidence and successfully accelerate the marketability of carbon capture technologies, it is critical that risk management decision tools be developed in parallel with numerical simulation capabilities and uncertainty quantification efforts. The focus of this paper is on the development of a technical risk model that incorporates the specific technology maturity development (level).

  15. Low Power and Shutdown Risk Assessment Benchmarking Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J.Mitman, J. Julius, R. Berucio, M. Phillips, J. Grobbelaaar, D. Bley, R. Budniz

    2002-12-15

    (B204)Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) insights are now used by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) to confirm the level of safety for plant operations and to justify changes in nuclear power plant operating requirements, both on an exception basis and as changeds to a plant's licensing basis. This report examines qualitative and quantitative risk assessments during shutdown plant states, providing feedback to utilities in the use of qualitative models for outage risk management, and also providing input to the development of the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Low Power and Shutdown PRA Standard.

  16. The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology | Department of Energy The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A Proposed Generic Methodology Presentation from the May 2015 Seismic Lessons-Learned Panel Meeting. PDF icon The INL Seismic Risk Assessment Project: Requirements for Addressing DOE Order 420.1C & A

  17. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  18. High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk Report

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    nerc.com | www.doe.gov June 2010 High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U.S. Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop About This Report High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System June 2010 2 About the High-Impact, Low-Frequency (HILF) Event Risk Effort The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the

  19. Local Risk-Minimization for Defaultable Claims with Recovery Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Biagini, Francesca; Cretarola, Alessandra

    2012-06-15

    We study the local risk-minimization approach for defaultable claims with random recovery at default time, seen as payment streams on the random interval [0,{tau} Logical-And T], where T denotes the fixed time-horizon. We find the pseudo-locally risk-minimizing strategy in the case when the agent information takes into account the possibility of a default event (local risk-minimization with G-strategies) and we provide an application in the case of a corporate bond. We also discuss the problem of finding a pseudo-locally risk-minimizing strategy if we suppose the agent obtains her information only by observing the non-defaultable assets.

  20. Using Measurement and Verification to Manage Risk in Federal...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Risk," in the context of measurement and verification (M&V), refers to the uncertainty ... and holding certain parameters fixed in the M&V plan can match up responsibilities. ...

  1. 7th Workshop on Risk Informed Regulation and Safety Culture ...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    their PRA. However, Qinshan will hire two U.S. PRA firms to develop its "Generation Risk Analysis" model. This summer, a team of Qinshan PSA personnel will visit South Texas...

  2. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program. 41156.pdf More...

  3. Managing the Risks of Climate Change and Terrorism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosa, Eugene; Dietz, Tom; Moss, Richard H.; Atran, Scott; Moser, Susanne

    2012-04-07

    The article describes challenges to comparative risk assessment, a key approach for managing uncertainty in decision making, across diverse threats such as terrorism and climate change and argues new approaches will be particularly important in addressing decisions related to sustainability.

  4. Sitewide risk perspectives for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olinger, S.J.; Foppe, T.L.

    1998-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recently finalized a closure plan (originally called the Ten Year Plan) for closure and environmental cleanup of previous nuclear weapons facilities. The DOE Rocky Flats Field Office has established priorities for risk reduction work to Support closure activities, as well as addressing those hazards associated with storage and management of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals. To provide information for future National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) or other regulatory assessments of specific risk reduction projects identified in the Closure Plan, a risk assessment of normal operations and potential accidents was recently prepared to provide an updated baseline of the cumulative impacts to the worker, public and environment due to the Site`s operations, activities, and environmental conditions in light of the Site`s change in mission, and of future closure projects. This paper summarizes the risk assessment approach, results, and conclusions.

  5. Risk Management Techniques and Practice Workshop Workshop Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quinn, T; Zosel, M

    2008-12-02

    At the request of the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a two-day Risk Management Techniques and Practice (RMTAP) workshop held September 18-19 at the Hotel Nikko in San Francisco. The purpose of the workshop, which was sponsored by the SC/Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)/Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, was to assess current and emerging techniques, practices, and lessons learned for effectively identifying, understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with acquiring leading-edge computing systems at high-performance computing centers (HPCCs). Representatives from fifteen high-performance computing (HPC) organizations, four HPC vendor partners, and three government agencies attended the workshop. The overall workshop findings were: (1) Standard risk management techniques and tools are in the aggregate applicable to projects at HPCCs and are commonly employed by the HPC community; (2) HPC projects have characteristics that necessitate a tailoring of the standard risk management practices; (3) All HPCC acquisition projects can benefit by employing risk management, but the specific choice of risk management processes and tools is less important to the success of the project; (4) The special relationship between the HPCCs and HPC vendors must be reflected in the risk management strategy; (5) Best practices findings include developing a prioritized risk register with special attention to the top risks, establishing a practice of regular meetings and status updates with the platform partner, supporting regular and open reviews that engage the interests and expertise of a wide range of staff and stakeholders, and documenting and sharing the acquisition/build/deployment experience; and (6) Top risk categories include system scaling issues, request for proposal/contract and acceptance testing, and vendor technical or business problems. HPC, by its very nature, is an exercise in multi-level risk management. Every aspect of stewarding HPCCs into the petascale era, from identification of the program drivers to the details of procurement actions and simulation environment component deployments, represents unprecedented challenges and requires effective risk management. The fundamental purpose of this workshop was to go beyond risk management processes as such and learn how to weave effective risk management practices, techniques, and methods into all aspects of migrating HPCCs into the next generation of leadership computing systems. This workshop was a follow-on to the Petascale System Integration Workshop hosted by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)/NERSC last year. It was intended to leverage and extend the risk management experience of the participants by looking for common best practices and unique processes that have been especially successful. This workshop assessed the effectiveness of tools and techniques that are or could be helpful in HPCC risk management, with a special emphasis on how practice meets process. As the saying goes: 'In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is'. Finally, the workshop brought together a network of experts who shared information as technology moves into the petascale era and beyond.

  6. DOE Issues Landmark Rule for Risk Insurance for Advanced Nuclear...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The rule establishes the requirements for risk insurance to cover costs associated with certain regulatory or litigation-related delays in the start-up of new nuclear power plants. ...

  7. Microsoft Word - followup to Fin Risk Metrics workshop.doc

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    March 21, 2008 PurposeSubject: Follow-up to Financial Risk Metrics Workshop Page 1 of 1 Differences in Cash Flow between Net Billing and Direct Pay for Energy Northwest Attached...

  8. Appendices and Risk Assessment Spreadsheet Version No. Fermi...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The lead engineer will determine the degree of oversight you will need using a risk-based graded approach. On other occasions you will do design work as a member of a...

  9. New Executive Order Establishes a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    President Obama signed Executive Order (E.O.) 13690, Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and a Process for Further Soliciting and Considering Stakeholder Input, on January 30, 2015.

  10. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  11. Energy Department Seeks Information on Geothermal Risk and Uncertainty Management

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has issued a Request for Information (RFI) to help quantify and manage risk in geothermal exploration, in an effort...

  12. Department of Energy's chief risk officer visits Nevada National...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Earlier this month, Associate Deputy Secretary John MacWilliams visited the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in his role as Chief Risk Officer for the Department of Energy. He ...

  13. Baseline Risk Assessment for 200-BP-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  14. Reduce Risk, Increase Clean Energy: How States and Cities are...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Cities are Using Old Finance Tools to Scale Up a New Industry Reduce Risk, Increase Clean Energy: How States and Cities are Using Old Finance Tools to Scale Up a New ...

  15. Probabilistic seismic risk of the territory of Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kamchybekov, Murataly Pakirovich

    2008-07-08

    For seismic risk analysis were gathered information about district's seismicity, tectonics, topography, and engineering--geotechnical conditions, which present in apartments, infrastructures and demographies. All of these informations are joined within the limits of GIS for father probabilistic evaluations from different losses levels from earthquake, and also definitions of effective arrangements by reaction. There were given analysis of obtained results with the purpose to take into the consideration and falling of seismic risk's levels.

  16. Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Anderson, K. K.; Sivaramakrishnan, Chandrika; Lansing, Carina

    2012-10-01

    This is an internal project milestone report to document the CCSI Element 7 team's progress on developing Technology Readiness Level (TRL) metrics and risk measures. In this report, we provide a brief overview of the current technology readiness assessment research, document the development of technology readiness levels (TRLs) specific to carbon capture technologies, describe the risk measures and uncertainty quantification approaches used in our research, and conclude by discussing the next steps that the CCSI Task 7 team aims to accomplish.

  17. Secretary Bodman Announces Federal Risk Insurance for Nuclear Power Plants

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    & Touts Robust Economy | Department of Energy Federal Risk Insurance for Nuclear Power Plants & Touts Robust Economy Secretary Bodman Announces Federal Risk Insurance for Nuclear Power Plants & Touts Robust Economy August 4, 2006 - 8:42am Addthis ATLANTA, GA - After touring Georgia Power and speaking to its employees, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced completion of the final rule that establishes the process for utility companies building

  18. Risk analysis for truck transportation of high consequence cargo.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waters, Robert David

    2010-09-01

    The fixed facilities control everything they can to drive down risk. They control the environment, work processes, work pace and workers. The transportation sector drive the State and US highways with high kinetic energy and less-controllable risks such as: (1) other drivers (beginners, impaired, distracted, etc.); (2) other vehicles (tankers, hazmat, super-heavies); (3) road environments (bridges/tunnels/abutments/construction); and (4) degraded weather.

  19. Electret Acoustic Transducer Array For Computerized Ultrasound Risk

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Evaluation System (Patent) | SciTech Connect Electret Acoustic Transducer Array For Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation System Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Electret Acoustic Transducer Array For Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation System An electret-based acoustic transducer array is provided and may be used in a system for examining tissue. The acoustic transducer array is formed with a substrate that has a multiple distinct cells formed therein. Within each of the

  20. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012) The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO{sub 2} capture and storage, including prediction and

  1. Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework David Snowberg and Jochem Weber Link to Risk Register Template Technical Report NREL/TP-5000-63258 September 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Contract No.

  2. SPRU Removes High-Risk Radioactive Waste | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SPRU Removes High-Risk Radioactive Waste SPRU Removes High-Risk Radioactive Waste December 23, 2014 - 12:00pm Addthis A truck carrying the last two solidified liners from the SPRU Disposition Project sludge campaign leaves the site in late February. A truck carrying the last two solidified liners from the SPRU Disposition Project sludge campaign leaves the site in late February. NISKAYUNA, N.Y. - EM's Separations Process Research Unit (SPRU) Disposition Project completed a significant

  3. SCUBA TECHNIQUES USED IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE NUCLEAR

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    SCUBA TECHNIQUES USED IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE NUCLEAR LEAKAGE AROUND AMCHITKA ISLAND, ALASKA Stephen Jewett, Max Hoberg, Heloise Chenelot, Shawn Harper Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7220 Joanna Burger Division of Life Sciences, Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP), and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), 604 Allison Road, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854-8082

  4. The Department of Energy Releases Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Process (RMP) Guideline for Public Comment (September 2011) | Department of Energy The Department of Energy Releases Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline for Public Comment (September 2011) The Department of Energy Releases Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline for Public Comment (September 2011) September 12, 2011 - 10:05am Addthis Public-Private Sector Collaboration Produces Guidance to Help Electric Utilities Better Understand and Assess

  5. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Traffic and Wind Energy Development | Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel Traffic and Wind Energy Development Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Assesses Risks for Marine Vessel Traffic and Wind Energy Development September 12, 2014 - 12:08pm Addthis The nationwide demand for energy is fueling development of sustainable offshore wind resources. To reach the strong and steady offshore wind resources, the Bureau of Ocean Energy

  6. Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    (RMP) Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) The electricity subsector cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) guideline was developed by the Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Members of industry and utility-specific trade groups were included in authoring this guidance designed to be meaningful and tailored for the electricity subsector. The NIST

  7. Reducing Cyber Risk to Critical Infrastructure: NIST Framework | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Reducing Cyber Risk to Critical Infrastructure: NIST Framework Reducing Cyber Risk to Critical Infrastructure: NIST Framework Recognizing that the national and economic security of the United States depends on the reliable functioning of critical infrastructure, the President under Executive Order (EO) 13636 "Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity" of February 2013 directed the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to work with stakeholders to

  8. New Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline Now

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Available for Public Comment (March 2012) | Department of Energy Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline Now Available for Public Comment (March 2012) New Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline Now Available for Public Comment (March 2012) March 1, 2012 - 3:26pm Addthis The Department of Energy, in collaboration with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), has

  9. Microsoft Word - EM_CM_3_Risk_Management_Best Practices and Gaps...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    EMCM3RiskManagementBest Practices and Gaps.doc Microsoft Word - EMCM3RiskManagementBest Practices and Gaps.doc Microsoft Word - EMCM3RiskManagementBest Practices and...

  10. Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

    1985-08-01

    This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly.

  11. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    E. Borgonovo; C. L. Smith

    2012-10-01

    Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.

  12. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Kapoor, A. K.

    2003-02-27

    In an attempt to bring forth increased efficiency and effectiveness in assessing transportation risks associated with radioactive materials or wastes, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program (NTP) published a resource handbook in 2002. The handbook draws from the broad technical expertise among DOE national laboratories and industry, which reflects the extensive experience gained from DOE's efforts in conducting assessments (i.e., environmental impact assessments) within the context of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the past 20 years. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information regarding the approach and basis for conducting transportation risk assessments under normal or accidental conditions that are associated with shipping radioactive materials or wastes. It is useful as a reference to DOE managers, NEPA assessors, technical analysts, contractors, and also stakeholders. It provides a summary of pertinent U.S. policies and regulations on the shipment of radioactive materials, existing guidance on preparing transportation risk assessments, a review of previous transportation risk assessments by DOE and others, a description of comprehensive and generally accepted transportation risk assessment methodologies, and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and assumptions. The handbook also provides a discussion paper on an issue that has been identified as being important in the past. The discussion paper focuses on cumulative impacts, illustrating the ongoing evolution of transportation risk assessment. The discussion may be expanded in the future as emerging issues are identified. The handbook will be maintained and periodically updated to provide current and accurate information.

  13. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  14. Risk D&D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-05-28

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health & safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects.

  15. Microsoft Word - EM_CM_3_Risk_Management_Best Practices and Gaps...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    risk procedures; available personnel and their skill levels relative to risk management; and available data and its validation. Attachment 2 lists the Best Practices...

  16. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aguilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a small comparable target cohort group) is more likely to choose to attack the specific target under analysis because he perceives it to be a relatively unique attack opportunity. The opposite is also true. Thus, total risk is related to the number of targets that exist in each scenario cohort group. This paper describes the Total Risk Assessment Methodology and illustrates it through an example.

  17. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  18. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application. It is possible to have confidence in the predictions of many of the existing models because of their fundamental physical and chemical mechanistic underpinnings and the extensive work already done to compare model predictions and empirical observations. The working group recommends that modeling tools be applied for benchmarking PBT/POPs according to exposure-to-emissions relationships, and that modeling tools be used to interpret emissions and monitoring data. The further development of models that couple fate, long-range transport, and bioaccumulation should be fostered, especially models that will allow time trends to be scientifically addressed in the risk profile.

  19. A mathematically guided strategy for risk assessment and management.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cooper, James Arlin

    2005-03-01

    Strategies for risk assessment and management of high consequence operations are often based on factors such as physical analysis, analysis of software and other logical processing, and analysis of statistically determined human actions. Conventional analysis methods work well for processing objective information. However, in practical situations, much or most of the data available are subjective. Also, there are potential resultant pitfalls where conventional analysis might be unrealistic, such as improperly using event tree and fault tree failure descriptions where failures or events are soft (partial) rather than crisp (binary), neglecting or misinterpreting dependence (positive, negative, correlation), and aggregating nonlinear contributions linearly. There are also personnel issues that transcend basic human factors statistics. For example, sustained productivity and safety in critical operations can depend on the morale of involved personnel. In addition, motivation is significantly influenced by 'latent effects', which are pre-occurring influences. This paper addresses these challenges and proposes techniques for subjective risk analysis, latent effects risk analysis and a hybrid analysis that also includes objective risk analysis. The goal is an improved strategy for risk management.

  20. Understanding the nature of nuclear power plant risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Denning, R. S.

    2012-07-01

    This paper describes the evolution of understanding of severe accident consequences from the non-mechanistic assumptions of WASH-740 to WASH-1400, NUREG-1150, SOARCA and today in the interpretation of the consequences of the accident at Fukushima. As opposed to the general perception, the radiological human health consequences to members of the Japanese public from the Fukushima accident will be small despite meltdowns at three reactors and loss of containment integrity. In contrast, the radiation-related societal impacts present a substantial additional economic burden on top of the monumental task of economic recovery from the nonnuclear aspects of the earthquake and tsunami damage. The Fukushima accident provides additional evidence that we have mis-characterized the risk of nuclear power plant accidents to ourselves and to the public. The human health risks are extremely small even to people living next door to a nuclear power plant. The principal risk associated with a nuclear power plant accident involves societal impacts: relocation of people, loss of land use, loss of contaminated products, decontamination costs and the need for replacement power. Although two of the three probabilistic safety goals of the NRC address societal risk, the associated quantitative health objectives in reality only address individual human health risk. This paper describes the types of analysis that would address compliance with the societal goals. (authors)

  1. Defining resilience within a risk-informed assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Holter, Gregory M.; Bass, Robert B.; Dagle, Jeffery E.

    2011-08-01

    The concept of resilience is the subject of considerable discussion in academic, business, and governmental circles. The United States Department of Homeland Security for one has emphasised the need to consider resilience in safeguarding critical infrastructure and key resources. The concept of resilience is complex, multidimensional, and defined differently by different stakeholders. The authors contend that there is a benefit in moving from discussing resilience as an abstraction to defining resilience as a measurable characteristic of a system. This paper proposes defining resilience measures using elements of a traditional risk assessment framework to help clarify the concept of resilience and as a way to provide non-traditional risk information. The authors show various, diverse dimensions of resilience can be quantitatively defined in a common risk assessment framework based on the concept of loss of service. This allows the comparison of options for improving the resilience of infrastructure and presents a means to perform cost-benefit analysis. This paper discusses definitions and key aspects of resilience, presents equations for the risk of loss of infrastructure function that incorporate four key aspects of resilience that could prevent or mitigate that loss, describes proposed resilience factor definitions based on those risk impacts, and provides an example that illustrates how resilience factors would be calculated using a hypothetical scenario.

  2. Towards secure virtual directories : a risk analysis framework.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Claycomb, William R.

    2010-07-01

    Directory services are used by almost every enterprise computing environment to provide data concerning users, computers, contacts, and other objects. Virtual directories are components that provide directory services in a highly customized manner. Unfortunately, though the use of virtual directory services are widespread, an analysis of risks posed by their unique position and architecture has not been completed. We present a detailed analysis of six attacks to virtual directory services, including steps for detection and prevention. We also describe various categories of attack risks, and discuss what is necessary to launch an attack on virtual directories. Finally, we present a framework to use in analyzing risks to individual enterprise computing virtual directory instances. We show how to apply this framework to an example implementation, and discuss the benefits of doing so.

  3. Risk management considerations for cost-effective environmental decisionmaking

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, M.A.

    1995-09-14

    Scientific publications and media reports continually remind us about the environmental hazards that surround us. We are appraised of the environmental legacies left by chemical industries, the defense complex, and even our local dry cleaning establishments. Governmental regulations have dictated that industry provide detailed listings of their input materials, wastes, and emissions to the public and perform risk assessments to demonstrate compliance with standards. These regulations were designed to make industry more accountable and to give the public information that would allow them to understand risks and either work for change or accept their living conditions. This process would appear to be rational, fair, and acceptable to both industry and the public. However, our inability to reach agreement on questions such as ``How Clean is Clean?`` or ``Is It Safe?`` after more than ten years of scientific and public discussions, coupled with the frequency of environmental demonstrations throughout the world, serves as evidence that ``acceptable risk`` has not yet been defined.

  4. Preliminary Risk Assessment Associated with IGSCC of BWR Vessel Internals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Ware; K. Morton; M. Nitzel; N. Chokshi; T-Y. Chang

    1999-08-01

    BWR core shrouds and other reactor internals important to safety are experiencing intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has followed the problem, and as part of its investigations, contracted with the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) to conduct a risk assessment. The overall project objective is to assess the potential consequences and risks associated with the failure of IGSCC-susceptible BWR vessel internals, with specific consideration given to potential cascading and common mode effects. The paper presents an overview of the program, discusses the results of a preliminary qualitative assessment, and summarizes a simplified risk assessment that was conducted on sequences resulting from failures of jet pump components of a BWR/4 plant.

  5. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P.

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  6. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  7. Fairness hypothesis and managing the risks of societal technology choices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.

    1986-08-01

    Much of the literature on risk perception and management has asked how society should resolve the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' There has been political and technical disagreement over the types of answers that may be given, as well as over the social values attached to perceived probabilities and magnitudes of various outcomes. Despite controversy, there seems to have been a large measure of consensus that, ''How safe is safe enough'' is the right question to ask. This paper sets out to question that assumption. Various ingenious techniques of risk analysis have sought to discover the real risks inherent in various activities, but from a sociocultural viewpoint it can be seen that no single answer can be given to the problem of adequate safety in a complex society which contains a wide variety of perceptual biases about danger, expectations of the good life, and levels of demand for safety. The paper argues that, from a societal risk-management perspective, we should be addressing a different range of questions that views societal risk as a whole rather than as the sum of individual hazards. Resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough.'' A recent empirical pilot study is reported which explored the fairness hypotheses in the context of nuclear power. The results indicate that the process of technology choice should recognize explicitly the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. The paper closes with a discussion of future prospects for the fairness approach in areas such as noxious facility siting.

  8. Rapid Risk Assessment: FY05 Annual Summary Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene; Millard, W. David; Gelston, Gariann M.; Pelton, Mitch A.; Yang, Zhaoqing; Strenge, Dennis L.; Lee, Cheegwan; Sivaraman, Chitra; Simpson, Mary J.; Young, Joan K.; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.; Downing, Timothy R.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.; Hachmeister, Lon E.

    2006-03-06

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing decision support tools that will assist in the transition of incident information into Protective Action Recommendations (PARs) that are understandable and can be executed in a real-world, operational environment. During emergencies, responders must rapidly assess risks and decide on the best course of actionall within minutes to hours. PNNL is blending existing modeling and decision support technology to develop new methods for transitioning science-based threat assessment to PARs. The rapid risk assessment tool will be both understandable and applicable to the emergency management community and would be a valuable tool during any water security-related incident. In 2005, PNNL demonstrated the integration of the multi-thematic modeling with emergency management decision support tools to create a Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) tool that will transition risk to PARs that assist in responding to or mitigating the direct and indirect impacts of the incident(s). The RRA tool does this by aligning multi-thematic modeling capabilities with real-world response zones established by emergency and site operations managers. The RRA tool uses the risk assessment tool to drive prognostic models that use the type of incident, time of impact, severity of impact, and duration of impact to select the most appropriate PAR. Because PARs (and the thresholds by which they are selected) are jointly established by the technologists and the emergency management and operations decision makers, the science-based risk assessment can transition into a recommendation that can be understood and executed by people in the field.

  9. EO 13045: Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks (1997) (As Amended by EO 13229 (2001) and EO 13296 (2003))

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Each Federal agency: (a) shall make it a high priority to identify and assess environmental health risks and safety risks that may disproportionately affect children; and (b) shall ensure that its...

  10. Data banks for risk assessment at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Durant, W.S.; Townsend, C.S.; Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.

    1992-01-01

    One of the lessons learned from many years of risk assessment experience is that mistakes of the past are soon forgotten if no method is available to retrieve and review these events. Savannah River Site has maintained a computerized data bank system for recording, retrieving and reviewing its incident history. The system is based on a series of compilations developed primarily for risk assessment but has been found to be invaluable for many other uses such as equipment reliability, project justification, and incident investigations.

  11. Data banks for risk assessment at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Durant, W.S.; Townsend, C.S.; Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.

    1992-11-01

    One of the lessons learned from many years of risk assessment experience is that mistakes of the past are soon forgotten if no method is available to retrieve and review these events. Savannah River Site has maintained a computerized data bank system for recording, retrieving and reviewing its incident history. The system is based on a series of compilations developed primarily for risk assessment but has been found to be invaluable for many other uses such as equipment reliability, project justification, and incident investigations.

  12. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  13. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  14. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Mundorf, William R.

    2003-03-06

    A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, was developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs.

  15. Seismic Analysis of Existing Facilties and Evaluation of Risk (SAFER)

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Seismic Analysis of Facilities and Evaluation of Risk Michael Salmon, LANL Larry, Goen, LANL Voice: 505-665-7244 Fax: 505-665-2897 salmon@lanl.gov 10/22/2008 p. 2, LA-UR 11-06024 Purpose * To discuss LANLs implementation of SAFER and lessons learned * Background * Results * Lessons learned 10/22/2008 p. 3, LA-UR 11-06024 SAFER Project * Project Mission - Conduct quantitative evaluation of seismic risk due to operations of Nuclear and High Hazard (DSA) Facilities at LANL operating under a

  16. Smart Phone Technologies Reduce Risks to Eagles from Wind Turbines |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Phone Technologies Reduce Risks to Eagles from Wind Turbines Smart Phone Technologies Reduce Risks to Eagles from Wind Turbines January 10, 2013 - 2:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Fourth Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. A DOE Success Story A team of researchers led by Dr. Todd Katzner at the West Virginia University (WVU) is using a global positioning system (GPS) similar to that found in a smart phone to track movements of golden

  17. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  18. Review of the Diablo Canyon probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.; Sabek, M.G.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

    1994-08-01

    This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Term Seismic Program.

  19. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-05-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges.

  20. Information resource use and need in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turturro, A.

    1990-12-31

    The manner in which the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) uses information resources comprises an interesting illustration of federal agency information use. A description of the context in which risk assessment occurs within the FDA is followed by a discussion of information access and use, as well as a practical example.

  1. Hanford Waste Vitrification Systems Risk Assessment action plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, W.C.

    1990-11-01

    Recent events in the Hanford waste storage tanks and delays in the startup of US Department of Energy vitrification plans suggest that the schedule for waste vitrification activities at the Hanford Site should be reexamined. As a result, a Hanford Waste Vitrification Systems Risk Assessment will be performed to identify significant risks associated with the vitrification of Hanford high-level and transuranic wastes. This document defines the purpose, scope, plan of execution, responsibilities, reporting requirements, and preliminary schedule and cost estimate to complete this assessment. The study will identify and evaluate uncertainties, quantify potential consequences from these uncertainties, and identify the risks to successful completion of the Hanford vitrification mission. Waste characterization, retrieval, pretreatment, and vitrification will be addressed. Uncertainties associated with the vitrification of double-shell and single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules, as well as a limited assessment of the grouting of low-level wastes, will be defined. Technical, regulatory (safety and environmental), and programmatic (cost and schedule) uncertainties will be defined. Recommendations for mitigating strategies and assessments of technical alternatives will be made to reduce substantial risks. 2 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  2. Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

    2008-07-08

    Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 'Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion of compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.

  3. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  4. INTERAGENCY PERFORMANCE AND RISK ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    October 13, 2015, Tuesday, 2:00 am to 3:00 pm EDT Agenda 2:00 - 2:05 am Introduction (Dr. Ming Zhu, DOE EM) 2:05 am - 2:55 pm Presentation - EPA Radiation Risk Assessment Approach...

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. ; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, risk and social impact assessment (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  6. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2012-05-31

    Abstract- This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses different approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies. The second paper summarizes the state of the art in modeling tools for risk assessment of cascading outages.

  7. Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice (P&RA CoP) Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMP Chair of P&RA CoP P&RA CoP Technical Exchange Meeting Las Vegas, NV December 11-12,...

  8. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bromhal, Grant; Guthrie, George

    2014-01-06

    The U.S. Department of Energys (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO{sub 2} capture and storage, including prediction and quantification of risks that may relate to potential liabilities. As part of this effort, NETL, through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), is leading a multi-laboratory effort that leverages broad technical capabilities across the DOE complex: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP involves five DOE national laboratories: NETL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This team is working together to develop a science-based method for quantifying the likelihood of risks (and associated potential liabilities) for CO{sub 2} storage sites. NRAP is an effort that harnesses the breadth of capabilities across the DOE National Laboratory (NL) system into a mission-focused platform that will develop the integrated science base that can be applied to risk assessment for long-term storage of CO{sub 2}.

  9. EM Makes Progress on GAO High-Risk List

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has removed EM capital asset projects of $750 million or less from its high-risk list because of the nuclear cleanup program’s progress in completing that work.

  10. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  11. Analysis of Potential Hydrogen Risk in the PWR Containment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng Jian; Xuewu Cao [Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai (China)

    2006-07-01

    Various studies have shown that hydrogen combustion is one of major risk contributors to threaten the integrity of the containment in a nuclear power plant. That hydrogen risk should be considered in severe accident strategies in current and future NPPs has been emphasized in the latest policies issued by the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China (NNSA). According to a deterministic approach, three typical severe accident sequences for a PWR large dry containment, such as the large break loss-of-coolant (LLOCA), the station blackout (SBO), and the small break loss-of-coolant (SLOCA) are analyzed in this paper with MELCOR code. Hydrogen concentrations in different compartments are observed to evaluate the potential hydrogen risk. The results show that there is a great amount of hydrogen released into the containment, which causes the containment pressure to increase and some potential in-consecutive burning. Therefore, certain hydrogen management strategies should be considered to reduce the risk to threaten the containment integrity. (authors)

  12. Department of Energy's chief risk officer visits Nevada National Security

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Site | National Nuclear Security Administration Energy's chief risk officer visits Nevada National Security Site | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Library Bios Congressional Testimony

  13. Truck transport of RAM: Risk effects of avoiding metropolitan areas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1997-11-01

    In the transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), stakeholders are generally most concerned about risks in high population density areas along transportation routes because of the perceived high consequences of potential accidents. The most significant portions of a transcontinental route and an alternative examined previously were evaluated again using population density data derived from US Census Block data. This method of characterizing population that adjoins route segments offers improved resolution of population density variations, especially in high population density areas along typical transport routes. Calculated incident free doses and accident dose risks for these routes, and the rural, suburban and urban segments are presented for comparison of their relative magnitudes. The results indicate that modification of this route to avoid major metropolitan areas through use of non-Interstate highways increases total risk yet does not eliminate a relatively small urban component of the accident dose risk. This conclusion is not altered by improved resolution of route segments adjoining high density populations.

  14. Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-01

    Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

  15. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Safety Applications

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    NOT MEASUREMENT SENSITIVE DOE-STD-1628-2013 November 2013 DOE STANDARD DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR NUCLEAR SAFETY APPLICATIONS U.S. Department of Energy AREA SAFT Washington, DC 20585 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DOE-STD-1628-2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE Foreword ........................................................................................................................................... i 1.

  16. Hanford Tank Farm interim storage phase probabilistic risk assessment outline

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-05-19

    This report is the second in a series examining the risks for the high level waste (HLW) storage facilities at the Hanford Site. The first phase of the HTF PSA effort addressed risks from Tank 101-SY, only. Tank 101-SY was selected as the initial focus of the PSA because of its propensity to periodically release (burp) a mixture of flammable and toxic gases. This report expands the evaluation of Tank 101-SY to all 177 storage tanks. The 177 tanks are arranged into 18 farms and contain the HLW accumulated over 50 years of weapons material production work. A centerpiece of the remediation activity is the effort toward developing a permanent method for disposing of the HLW tank`s highly radioactive contents. One approach to risk based prioritization is to perform a PSA for the whole HLW tank farm complex to identify the highest risk tanks so that remediation planners and managers will have a more rational basis for allocating limited funds to the more critical areas. Section 3 presents the qualitative identification of generic initiators that could threaten to produce releases from one or more tanks. In section 4 a detailed accident sequence model is developed for each initiating event group. Section 5 defines the release categories to which the scenarios are assigned in the accident sequence model and presents analyses of the airborne and liquid source terms resulting from different release scenarios. The conditional consequences measured by worker or public exposure to radionuclides or hazardous chemicals and economic costs of cleanup and repair are analyzed in section 6. The results from all the previous sections are integrated to produce unconditional risk curves in frequency of exceedance format.

  17. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called ``produced water.`` Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  18. Produced water radionuclide hazard/risk assessment, Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Meinhold, A.F.; Nagy, J.

    1991-06-01

    Petroleum production may be accompanied by the production of saline water, called produced water.'' Produced water discharged into freshwater streams, estuaries, coastal and outer continental shelf waters can contained enhanced levels of radium isotopes. This document reports on the first phase of a study to estimate the risk to human health and the environment from radium discharged in produced water. The study involved five major steps: (1) evaluate the usefulness of available produced water outfall data for developing estimates of radium environmental concentrations; (2) review the literature on the bioaccumulation of radium by aquatic organism; (3) review the literature on the effects of radiation on aquatic organisms; (4) review the information available concerning the human health risks associated with exposure to Ra-226 and Ra-228 and (5) perform a conservative, screening-level assessment of the health and environmental risks posed by Ra-226 and Ra-228 discharged in produced waters. A screening-level analysis was performed to determine whether radium discharged to coastal Louisiana in produced waters presents potential health or environmental risks requiring further study. This conservative assessment suggested that no detectable impact on populations of fish, molluscs or crustaceans from radium discharged in produced waters is likely. The analysis also suggested that there is a potential for risk were an individual to ingest a large amount of seafood harvested near a produced water discharge point over a lifetime. The number of excess cancers predicted per year under a conservative scenario is comparable to those expected to result from background concentrations of radium.

  19. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  20. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO? sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO? storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO? sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO? and brine leakage. The simulation results are also used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.

  1. Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; Chu, Shaoping; Dilmore, Robert; Gastelum, Jason; Oldenburg, Curt; Stauffer, Philip; Zhang, Yingqi; Guthrie, George

    2014-12-31

    Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

  2. Proposed framework for the Western Area Power Administration Environmental Risk Management Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Glantz, C.S.; DiMassa, F.V.; Pelto, P.J.; Brothers, A.J.; Roybal, A.L.

    1994-12-01

    The Western Area Power Administration (Western) views environmental protection and compliance as a top priority as it manages the construction, operation, and maintenance of its vast network of transmission lines, substations, and other facilities. A recent Department of Energy audit of Western`s environmental management activities recommends that Western adopt a formal environmental risk program. To accomplish this goal, Western, in conjunction with Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is in the process of developing a centrally coordinated environmental risk program. This report presents the results of this design effort, and indicates the direction in which Western`s environmental risk program is heading. Western`s environmental risk program will consist of three main components: risk communication, risk assessment, and risk management/decision making. Risk communication is defined as an exchange of information on the potential for threats to human health, public safety, or the environment. This information exchange provides a mechanism for public involvement, and also for the participation in the risk assessment and management process by diverse groups or offices within Western. The objective of risk assessment is to evaluate and rank the relative magnitude of risks associated with specific environmental issues that are facing Western. The evaluation and ranking is based on the best available scientific information and judgment and serves as input to the risk management process. Risk management takes risk information and combines it with relevant non-risk factors (e.g., legal mandates, public opinion, costs) to generate risk management options. A risk management tool, such as decision analysis, can be used to help make risk management choices.

  3. PARALLELS OF RADIATION- AND FINANCIAL-RISK MANAGEMENT ON PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hogue, M.

    2010-01-04

    The financial collapse of 2007 provides an opportunity for a cross-discipline comparison of risk assessments. Flaws in financial risk assessments bear part of the blame for the financial collapse. There may be a potential for similar flaws to be made in radiological risk assessments. Risk assessments in finance and health physics are discussed in the context of a broader view of the risk management environment. Flawed risk assessments can adversely influence public acceptance of radiological technologies, so the importance of quality is magnified.

  4. Baseline ecological risk assessment Salmon Site, Lamar County, Mississippi

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Salmon Site (SS), formerly the Tatum Dome Test Site, located in Mississippi was the site of two nuclear and two gas explosion tests conducted between 1964 and 1970. A consequence of these testing activities is that radionuclides were released into the salt dome, where they are presently contained. During reentry drilling and other site activities, incidental liquid and solid wastes that contained radioactivity were generated, resulting in some soil, ground water and equipment contamination. As part of the remedial investigation effort, a Baseline Ecological Risk Assessment was conducted at the SS. The purpose is to gauge ecological and other environmental impacts attributable to past activities at the former test facility. The results of this facility-specific baseline risk assessment are presented in this document.

  5. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  6. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  7. Chasing a specter: Risk management for global environmental change

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    O'Riordan, T. ); Rayner, S. )

    1989-10-01

    Global environmental change is both a concept and a process that changes in meaning with scientific discovery, public concern, and political responsiveness. It is the relationship between the problems as perceived and the various institutions that help shape and adapt to such problems that defines global environmental change. There is a kind of race between scientific detective work and political adjustment to lessen the likely impacts that predictive science is trying to verify. Risk analysis, because of its capacity to recognize this relationship in many spheres of problem identification, can contribute to the political debate, mostly by proposing institutional redesign of the relationship among scientific research, public entry, and experimental readjustments to consensus formation and international action. This paper discusses the factors involved in global environmental change, the risk management involved, the holistic interpretation, and the environmental impacts. 21 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  8. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  9. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Justin Coleman

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  10. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  11. Protecting the Smart Grid: A Risk Based Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clements, Samuel L.; Kirkham, Harold; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Lu, Shuai

    2011-10-10

    This paper describes a risk-based approach to security that has been used for years in protecting physical assets, and shows how it could be modified to help secure the digital aspects of the smart grid and control systems in general. One way the smart grid has been said to be vulnerable is that mass load fluctuations could be created by quickly turning off and on large quantities of smart meters. We investigate the plausibility.

  12. Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Methods Development Work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Curtis L; Ma, Zhegang; Tom Riley; Mandelli, Diego; Nielsen, Joseph W; Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes the research activity developed during the Fiscal year 2014 within the Risk Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) campaign. This research activity is complementary to the one presented in the INL/EXT-??? report which shows advances Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7 in conjunction to novel flooding simulation tools. Here we present several analyses that prove the values of the RISMC approach in order to assess risk associated to nuclear power plants (NPPs). We focus on simulation based PRA which, in contrast to classical PRA, heavily employs system simulator codes. Firstly we compare, these two types of analyses, classical and RISMC, for a Boiling water reactor (BWR) station black out (SBO) initiating event. Secondly we present an extended BWR SBO analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-5 which address the comments and suggestions received about he original analysis presented in INL/EXT-???. This time we focus more on the stochastic analysis such probability of core damage and on the determination of the most risk-relevant factors. We also show some preliminary results regarding the comparison between RELAP5-3D and the new code RELAP-7 for a simplified Pressurized Water Reactors system. Lastly we present some conceptual ideas regarding the possibility to extended the RISMC capabilities from an off-line tool (i.e., as PRA analysis tool) to an online-tool. In this new configuration, RISMC capabilities can be used to assist and inform reactor operator during real accident scenarios.

  13. Hanford safety analysis and risk assessment handbook (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    GARVIN, L.J.

    2003-01-20

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. SARAH describes currently acceptable methodology for development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of technical safety requirements (TSR) based on 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management,'' Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements,'' and provides data to ensure consistency in approach.

  14. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  15. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ● A national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Preliminary Technical Risk Technical Report NREL/TP-640-41156 Analysis for the Geothermal March 2007 Technologies Program J. McVeigh and J. Cohen Princeton Energy Resources International M. Vorum, G. Porro, and G. Nix National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL is operated by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Contract

  16. Monticello Mill Tailings Site Operable Unit III Ecological Risk

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Monticello Mill Tailings Site Operable Unit III Ecological Risk Assessment September 1998 Prepared by U.S. Department of Energy Grand JunctionOffice Grand Junction, Colorado Project Number MSG-035-0004-00-000 Document Number Q0002l 00 Work Performed Under DOE Contract Number DE-AC13-96GJ87335 Task Order Number MAC98-03 This page intentionally blank , ** 1 ( ( Document Number Q00021 00 Contents Contents Page Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  17. Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Advanced Test Reactor

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Demonstration Case Study | Department of Energy (RISMC) Advanced Test Reactor Demonstration Case Study Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Advanced Test Reactor Demonstration Case Study Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A

  18. Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Case Study: Selection of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Electrical Equipment To Be Subjected to Environmental Qualification | Department of Energy Case Study: Selection of Electrical Equipment To Be Subjected to Environmental Qualification Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Case Study: Selection of Electrical Equipment To Be Subjected to Environmental Qualification Reference 1 discussed key elements of the process for developing a margins-based "safety case" to support safe and efficient operation for an extended period. The

  19. Environmental Risk Evaluation System An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of toxicity may have on marine flora and fauna. Between these two extremes are intermittent events, such as encounters between fish and rotating tidal turbine blades that will occur only when fish are present and the tidal device is turning. A key feature of understanding risk is describing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of an episodic, intermittent, or chronic event, as well as the uncertainty of the resulting consequences.

  20. Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott; Tony Koonce

    2014-04-01

    A key area of the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) strategy is the development of methodologies and tools that will be used to predict the safety, security, safeguards, performance, and deployment viability of SMRs. The goal of the SMR PRA activity will be to develop quantitative methods and tools and the associated analysis framework for assessing a variety of risks. Development and implementation of SMR-focused safety assessment methods may require new analytic methods or adaptation of traditional methods to the advanced design and operational features of SMRs. We will need to move beyond the current limitations such as static, logic-based models in order to provide more integrated, scenario-based models based upon predictive modeling which are tied to causal factors. The development of SMR-specific safety models for margin determination will provide a safety case that describes potential accidents, design options (including postulated controls), and supports licensing activities by providing a technical basis for the safety envelope. This report documents the progress that was made to implement the PRA framework, specifically by way of demonstration of an advanced 3D approach to representing, quantifying and understanding flooding risks to a nuclear power plant.

  1. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Part I - Overview of Methodologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2011-07-31

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which will extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses diffeent approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies.

  2. Risk-informed inservice test activities at the NRC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fischer, D.; Cheok, M.; Hsia, A.

    1996-12-01

    The operational readiness of certain safety-related components is vital to the safe operation of nuclear power plants. Inservice testing (IST) is one of the mechanisms used by licensees to ensure this readiness. In the past, the type and frequency of IST have been based on the collective best judgment of the NRC and industry in an ASME Code consensus process and NRC rulemaking process. Furthermore, IST requirements have not explicitly considered unique component and system designs and contribution to overall plant risk. Because of the general nature of ASME Code test requirements and non-reliance on risk estimates, current IST requirements may not adequately emphasize testing those components that are most important to safety and may overly emphasize testing of less safety significant components. Nuclear power plant licensees are currently interested in optimizing testing by applying resources in more safety significant areas and, where appropriate, reducing measures in less safety-significant areas. They are interested in maintaining system availability and reducing overall maintenance costs in ways that do not adversely affect safety. The NRC has been interested in using probabilistic, as an adjunct to deterministic, techniques to help define the scope, type and frequency of IST. The development of risk-informed IST programs has the potential to optimize the use of NRC and industry resources without adverse affect on safety.

  3. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  4. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  5. Microsoft PowerPoint -Risk_Portfolio_Manager(RPM)_overview_Under...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUnderSecDOE2011V4 Final 3-22-2011.ppt Read-Only Compatibili Microsoft PowerPoint - RiskPortfolioManager(RPM)overviewUn...

  6. Applicator-guided volumetric-modulated arc therapy for low-risk...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    low-risk endometrial cancer Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Applicator-guided volumetric-modulated arc therapy for low-risk endometrial cancer The aim of this study ...

  7. Risk Level Based Management System: a control banding model for occupational health and safety risk management in a highly regulated environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zalk, D; Kamerzell, R; Paik, S; Kapp, J; Harrington, D; Swuste, P

    2009-05-27

    The Risk Level Based Management System (RLBMS) is an occupational risk management (ORM) model that focuses occupational safety, hygeiene, and health (OSHH) resources on the highest risk procedures at work. This article demonstrates the model's simplicity through an implementation within a heavily regulated research institution. The model utilizes control banding strategies with a stratification of four risk levels (RLs) for many commonly performed maintenance and support activities, characterizing risk consistently for comparable tasks. RLBMS creates an auditable tracking of activities, maximizes OSHH professional field time, and standardizes documentation and control commensurate to a given task's RL. Validation of RLs and their exposure control effectiveness is collected in a traditional quantitative collection regime for regulatory auditing. However, qualitative risk assessment methods are also used within this validation process. Participatory approaches are used throughout the RLBMS process. Workers are involved in all phases of building, maintaining, and improving this model. This work participation also improves the implementation of established controls.

  8. The Department of Energy Releases Draft of Cybersecurity Risk Management Process (RMP) Guideline for Public Comment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Public-Private Sector Collaboration Produces Guidance to Help Electric UtilitiesBetter Understand and Assess Cybersecurity Risk

  9. Using Measurement and Verification to Manage Risk in Federal Energy- and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Water-Saving Projects | Department of Energy Using Measurement and Verification to Manage Risk in Federal Energy- and Water-Saving Projects Using Measurement and Verification to Manage Risk in Federal Energy- and Water-Saving Projects "Risk," in the context of measurement and verification (M&V), refers to the uncertainty that expected savings will be realized. Assumption of risk implies acceptance of the potential monetary consequences. Energy service companies (ESCOs) and

  10. Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    | Department of Energy Practice Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015. PDF icon Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice More Documents & Publications Status Updates on the Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice

  11. New Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy New Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing New Tools to Monitor Carbon Storage Risks Released for Testing February 11, 2016 - 10:37am Addthis Carbon Storage Model Carbon Storage Model The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), led by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), developed the simulation tools, which are designed to help evaluate environmental risks of carbon storage containment systems. Successful

  12. DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 | Department of Energy Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 There have been significant developments with regard to the risk assessment and risk informed decision making, as it applies to nuclear and other safety areas, since the

  13. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-12-31

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risk from postulated options or endstates. Comparative Risk Analysis is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remedial options or future endstates. It addresses the cumulative risks imposed by the Rocky Flats Plant and provides risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures. Currently, there is no approved methodology that aggregates various risk estimates. Along with academic and field expert review, the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology is being reviewed and refined. A Rocky Flats Plant Risk Assessment Focus Group was established. Stakeholder involvement in the development provides an opportunity to influence the information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the methodology.

  14. An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noone, Bailey C

    2012-08-13

    The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design and maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.

  15. Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David G. Hoel, PhD

    2012-04-19

    The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact that the research project did not continue beyond its first year.

  16. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Balch

    2003-04-15

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The pool of experts is much reduced today. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This fourth of five annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the April 2002 through March 2003 period was directed toward Silurian-Devonian geology, development of rules for the fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  17. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Balch

    2003-10-15

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This ninth of ten semi-annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the March 2003 through September 2003 period was directed toward Silurian-Devonian geology, development of rules for the fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  18. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert Balch

    2004-04-08

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This fifth annual (and tenth of 12 semi-annual reports) contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the March 2003 through March 2004 period was directed toward completion of the Brushy Canyon FEE Tool and to Silurian-Devonian geology, and development of rules for the Devonian fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  19. Use of comprehensive NEPA documents to reduce program risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wolff, T.A.; Hansen, R.P.

    1994-04-01

    Sandia National Laboratories operates DOE`s Kauai Test Facility (KTF) on the western coast of the Hawaiian island of Kauai. In July 1992, DOE approved a comprehensive Environmental Assessment (EA) covering ongoing and future rocket launches of experimental payloads. The KTF EA fulfilled two basic objectives: Consideration of environmental values early in the planning and decision making process; and public disclosure. These objectives can also be considered to be benefits of preparing comprehensive NEPA documents. However, proponents of an action are not as dedicated to these twin NEPA objectives as they are motivated by NEPA`s ability to reduce program risks. Once the KTF environmental assessment was underway, it was apparent that reducing risks to the program, budget, and schedule was the main incentive for successful completion of the EA. The comprehensive or ``omnibus`` environmental assessment prepared for the KTF is a de facto ``detailed statement,`` and it is also a good example of a ``mitigated FONSI,`` i.e., mitigation measures are essential to render some potential impacts not significant. Because the KTF EA is a broad scope, umbrella-like, site-wide assessment, it ``bounds`` the impacts of continuing and proposed future actions. The successful completion of this document eliminated the need to review, document, and gain approval individually for numerous related actions. Also, because it supported a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) after identifying appropriate mitigation, it also eliminated the need for an environmental impact statement (EIS). This paper discusses seven specific ways in which the KTF EA reduced program risks and supported budget and schedule objectives.

  20. Predicting Pneumonitis Risk: A Dosimetric Alternative to Mean Lung Dose

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tucker, Susan L.; Mohan, Radhe; Liengsawangwong, Raweewan; Martel, Mary K.; Liao Zhongxing

    2013-02-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the association between mean lung dose (MLD) and risk of severe (grade {>=}3) radiation pneumonitis (RP) depends on the dose distribution pattern to normal lung among patients receiving 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: Three cohorts treated with different beam arrangements were identified. One cohort (2-field boost [2FB]) received 2 parallel-opposed (anteroposterior-posteroanterior) fields per fraction initially, followed by a sequential boost delivered using 2 oblique beams. The other 2 cohorts received 3 or 4 straight fields (3FS and 4FS, respectively), ie, all fields were irradiated every day. The incidence of severe RP was plotted against MLD in each cohort, and data were analyzed using the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model. Results: The incidence of grade {>=}3 RP rose more steeply as a function of MLD in the 2FB cohort (N=120) than in the 4FS cohort (N=138), with an intermediate slope for the 3FS group (N=99). The estimated volume parameter from the LKB model was n=0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.15-1.0) and led to a significant improvement in fit (P=.05) compared to a fit with volume parameter fixed at n=1 (the MLD model). Unlike the MLD model, the LKB model with n=0.41 provided a consistent description of the risk of severe RP in all three cohorts (2FB, 3FS, 4FS) simultaneously. Conclusions: When predicting risk of grade {>=}3 RP, the mean lung dose does not adequately take into account the effects of high doses. Instead, the effective dose, computed from the LKB model using volume parameter n=0.41, may provide a better dosimetric parameter for predicting RP risk. If confirmed, these findings support the conclusion that for the same MLD, high doses to small lung volumes ('a lot to a little') are worse than low doses to large volumes ('a little to a lot').

  1. Risk assessment and management of radiofrequency radiation exposure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dabala, Dana; Surducan, Emanoil; Surducan, Vasile; Neamtu, Camelia

    2013-11-13

    Radiofrequency radiation (RFR) industry managers, occupational physicians, security department, and other practitioners must be advised on the basic of biophysics and the health effects of RF electromagnetic fields so as to guide the management of exposure. Information on biophysics of RFR and biological/heath effects is derived from standard texts, literature and clinical experiences. Emergency treatment and ongoing care is outlined, with clinical approach integrating the circumstances of exposure and the patient's symptoms. Experimental risk assessment model in RFR chronic exposure is proposed. Planning for assessment and monitoring exposure, ongoing care, safety measures and work protection are outlining the proper management.

  2. On Enhancing Risk Monitors for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2013-08-01

    Advanced small modular reactors (AdvSMRs) can contribute to safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy production. However, the economics of AdvSMRs suffer from the loss of economy-of-scale for both construction and operation. The controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance (O&M) costs. These expenses could potentially be managed through optimized scheduling of O&M activities for components, reactor modules, power blocks, and the full plant. Accurate, real-time risk assessment with integrated health monitoring of key active components can support scheduling of both online and offline inspection and maintenance activities.

  3. Survey of Tools for Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-17

    Cascading failure can cause large blackouts, and a variety of methods are emerging to study this challenging topic. In parts 1 and 2 of this paper, the IEEE task force on cascading failure seeks to consolidate and review the progress of the field towards methods and tools of assessing the risk of cascading failure. Part 2 summarizes and discusses the state of the art in the available cascading failure modeling tools. The discussion integrates industry and research perspectives from a variety of institutions. Strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current approaches are indicated.

  4. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  5. Depleted uranium human health risk assessment, Jefferson Proving Ground, Indiana

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

    1994-04-29

    The risk to human health from fragments of depleted uranium (DU) at Jefferson Proving Ground (JPG) was estimated using two types of ecosystem pathway models. A steady-state, model of the JPG area was developed to examine the effects of DU in soils, water, and vegetation on deer that were hunted and consumed by humans. The RESRAD code was also used to estimate the effects of farming the impact area and consuming the products derived from the farm. The steady-state model showed that minimal doses to humans are expected from consumption of deer that inhabit the impact area. Median values for doses to humans range from about 1 mrem ({plus_minus}2.4) to 0.04 mrem ({plus_minus}0.13) and translate to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments (excess cancers) in the population. Monte Carlo simulation of the steady-state model was used to derive the probability distributions from which the median values were drawn. Sensitivity analyses of the steady-state model showed that the amount of DU in airborne dust and, therefore, the amount of DU on the vegetation surface, controlled the amount of DU ingested by deer and by humans. Human doses from the RESRAD estimates ranged from less than 1 mrem/y to about 6.5 mrem/y in a hunting scenario and subsistence fanning scenario, respectively. The human doses exceeded the 100 mrem/y dose limit when drinking water for the farming scenario was obtained from the on-site aquifer that was presumably contaminated with DU. The two farming scenarios were unrealistic land uses because the additional risk to humans due to unexploded ordnance in the impact area was not figured into the risk estimate. The doses estimated with RESRAD translated to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments to about 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} detriments. The higher risks were associated only with the farming scenario in which drinking water was obtained on-site.

  6. Microsoft Word - 45237 FINAL_Rulison_Risk_Report eq

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    Sc Po Fu Pr Jeffr Jenn Febr Publ reenin otentia uture N roject R rey I. Daniel y B. Chapm ruary 2011 ication No. ng Ass al Hum Natur Ruliso ls man 45237 Prepar Divisio Desert Prepar S. M. S U.S. D sessme man-H al-Ga on in W red by on of Hydro t Research In red for Stoller Corp Department o ent of Health s Drill Weste logic Scienc nstitute, Nev oration, Offi of Energy, G Risk ling N ern Co ces, Las Veg vada System fice of Legac Grand Junctio L from Near olorad gas, NV of Higher E cy Managem on,

  7. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Risk Assessment Tools D&D and Risk Assessment Tools ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate alternatives in the sequencing of D&D work. PDF icon D&D and Risk Assessment Tools More Documents & Publications An Automated JHA Tool, Making Safety Accessible Voluntary Protection Program Onsite Review, Oak Ridge Associated

  8. An examination of the role of risk assessment in superfund program management, implementation, and evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bala, S.

    1995-12-01

    Human health risk assessment is playing an increasing role in the characterization of the nature and extent of human health threats posed by Superfund hazardous waste sites, and the prioritization of these sites for remediation activities. Risk assessment also plays a central role in initiatives to measure and evaluate the program`s progress in remediating these sites, and in efforts to communicate that progress to a diverse audience. This paper examines the current role of risk assessment in Superfund`s program management, implementation, and evaluation activities, and advocates the need for a comprehensive plan to enhance and systematically apply risk assessment information across all of these activities. Specifically, this paper examines the role of risk assessment at three levels: (1) the current role of risk information in Superfund`s program management activities; (2) the current role of risk information in the implementation of site cleanup; (3) profile of Superfund`s approach to measuring, evaluating, and communicating site remediation progress via Environmental Indicators (EIs). Building on this three-level examination, this paper calls for the development of a comprehensive plan for the enhanced and systematic application of risk assessment information in Superfund`s program management, implementation, and evaluation activities. This paper also draws upon the current literature on risk assessment and measurement, risk-based planning and decision-making, and risk communication.

  9. Notice of Publication of Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process: Federal Register Notice Volume 77, No. 100- May 23, 2012

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This serves as public notification of the publication, by the Department of Energy (DOE) of the Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process guideline. The guideline describes a risk...

  10. Potential enhancements to addressing programmatic risk in the tank waste remediation system (TWRS) program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brothers, A.; Fassbender, L.; Bilyard, G.; Levine, L.

    1996-04-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management methodology development task. The objective of this task was to develop risk management methodology focused on (1) the use of programmatic risk information in making TWRS architecture selection decisions and (2) the identification/evaluation/selection of TWRS risk-handling actions. Methods for incorporating programmatic risk/uncertainty estimates into trade studies are provided for engineers/analysts. Methods for identifying, evaluating, and selecting risk-handling actions are provided for managers. The guidance provided in this report is designed to help decision-makers make difficult judgments. Current approaches to architecture selection decisions and identification/evaluation/selection of risk-handling actions are summarized. Three categories of sources of programmatic risk (parametric, external, and organizational) are examined. Multiple analytical approaches are presented to enhance the current alternative generation and analysis (AGA) and risk-handling procedures. Appendix A describes some commercially available risk management software tools and Appendix B provides a brief introduction to quantification of risk attitudes. The report provides three levels of analysis for enhancing the AGA Procedure: (1) qualitative discussion coupled with estimated uncertainty ranges for scores in the alternatives-by-criteria matrix; (2) formal elicitation of probability distributions for the alternative scores; and (3) a formal, more structured, comprehensive risk analysis. A framework is also presented for using the AGA programmatic risk analysis results in making better decisions. The report also presents two levels of analysis for evaluation and selection of risk-handling actions: (1) qualitative analysis and judgmental rankings of alternative actions, and (2) Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART).

  11. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H.

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio of absolute risks between two modalities is less sensitive to the uncertainties in the risk model and can provide statistically significant estimates.

  12. Geomechanical risks in coal bed carbon dioxide sequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myer, Larry R.

    2003-07-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize and evaluate geomechanical factors which should be taken into account in assessing the risk of leakage of CO{sub 2} from coal bed sequestration projects. The various steps in developing such a project will generate stresses and displacements in the coal seam and the adjacent overburden. The question is whether these stresses and displacements will generate new leakage pathways by failure of the rock or slip on pre-existing discontinuities such as fractures and faults. In order to evaluate the geomechanical issues in CO{sub 2} sequestration in coal beds, it is necessary to review each step in the process of development of such a project and evaluate its geomechanical impact. A coal bed methane production/CO{sub 2} sequestration project will be developed in four steps: (1) Formation dewatering and methane production; (2) CO{sub 2} injection with accompanying methane production; (3) Possible CO{sub 2} injection for sequestration only; and The approach taken in this study was to review each step: Identify the geomechanical processes associated with it, and assess the risks that leakage would result from these processes.

  13. Interim Status Report for Risk Management for SFRs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle; Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina; Wheeler, Timothy A.

    2015-10-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of passive, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to take advantage of natural phenomena to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a variety of beyond design basis events with the intent of exploring the utility of a Dynamic Bayesian Network to infer the state of the reactor to inform the operator's corrective actions. These inferences also serve to identify the instruments most critical to informing an operator's actions as candidates for hardening against radiation and other extreme environmental conditions that may exist in an accident. This reduction in uncertainty serves to inform ongoing discussions of how small sodium reactors would be licensed and may serve to reduce regulatory risk and cost for such reactors.

  14. A Hygrothermal Risk Analysis Applied to Residential Unvented Attics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pallin, Simon B; Kehrer, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Aresidential building, constructed with an unvented attic, is acommonroof assembly in the United States.The expected hygrothermal performance and service life of the roof are difficult to estimate due to a number of varying parameters.Typical parameters expected to vary are the climate, direction, and slope of the roof as well as the radiation properties of the surface material. Furthermore, influential parameters are indoor moisture excess, air leakages through the attic floor, and leakages from air-handling unit and ventilation ducts. In addition, the type of building materials such as the insulation material and closed or open cell spray polyurethane foam will influence the future performance of the roof. A development of a simulation model of the roof assembly will enable a risk and sensitivity analysis, in which the most important varying parameters on the hygrothermal performance can be determined. The model is designed to perform probabilistic simulations using mathematical and hygrothermal calculation tools. The varying input parameters can be chosen from existing measurements, simulations, or standards. An analysis is applied to determine the risk of consequences, such as mold growth, rot, or energy demand of the HVAC unit. Furthermore, the future performance of the roof can be simulated in different climates to facilitate the design of an efficient and reliable roof construction with the most suitable technical solution and to determine the most appropriate building materials for a given climate

  15. Global recycling services for short and long term risk reduction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arslan, M.; Grygiel, J.M.; Drevon, C.; Lelievre, F.; Lesage, M.; Vincent, O.

    2013-07-01

    New schemes are being developed by AREVA in order to provide global solutions for safe and non-proliferating management of used fuels, thereby significantly contributing to overall risks reduction and sustainable nuclear development. Utilities are thereby provided with a service through which they will be able to send their used fuels and only get returned vitrified and compacted waste, the only waste remaining after reprocessing. This waste is stable, standard and has demonstrated capability for very long term interim storage. They are provided as well with associated facilities and all necessary services for storage in a demonstrated safely manner. Recycled fuels, in particular MOX, would be used either in existing LWRs or in a very limited number of full MOX reactors (like the EPR reactor), located in selected countries, that will recycle MOX so as to downgrade the isotopic quality of the Pu inventories in a significant manner. Reprocessed uranium also can be recycled. These schemes, on top of offering demonstrated operational advantages and a responsible approach, result into optimized economics for all shareholders of the scheme, as part of reactor financing (under Opex or Capex form) will be secured thanks to the value of the recycled flows. It also increases fuel cost predictability as recycled fuel is not subject to market fluctuations as much and allows, in a limited span of time, for clear risk mitigation. (authors)

  16. A review of NRC staff uses of probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    The NRC staff uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management as important elements its licensing and regulatory processes. In October 1991, the NRC`s Executive Director for Operations established the PRA Working Group to address concerns identified by the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards with respect to unevenness and inconsistency in the staff`s current uses of PRA. After surveying current staff uses of PRA and identifying needed improvements, the Working Group defined a set of basic principles for staff PRA use and identified three areas for improvements: guidance development, training enhancements, and PRA methods development. For each area of improvement, the Working Group took certain actions and recommended additional work. The Working Group recommended integrating its work with other recent PRA-related activities the staff completed and improving staff interactions with PRA users in the nuclear industry. The Working Group took two key actions by developing general guidance for two uses of PRA within the NRC (that is, screening or prioritizing reactor safety issues and analyzing such issues in detail) and developing guidance on basic terms and methods important to the staff`s uses of PRA.

  17. Geographic resolution issues in RAM transportation risk analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MILLS,G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER,SIEGLINDE

    2000-04-12

    Over the years that radioactive material (RAM) transportation risk estimates have been calculated using the RADTRAN code, demand for improved geographic resolution of route characteristics, especially density of population neighboring route segments, has led to code improvements that provide more specific route definition. With the advent of geographic information systems (GISs), the achievable resolution of route characteristics is theoretically very high. The authors have compiled population-density data in 1-kilometer increments for routes extending over hundreds of kilometers without impractical expenditures of time. Achievable resolution of analysis is limited, however, by the resolution of available data. U.S. Census data typically have 1-km or better resolution within densely-populated portions of metropolitan areas but census blocks are much larger in rural areas. Geographic resolution of accident-rate data, especially for heavy/combination trucks, are typically tabulated on a statewide basis. These practical realities cause one to ask what level(s) of resolution may be necessary for meaningful risk analysis of transportation actions on a state or interstate scale.

  18. Chemical risk management strategies for product stewardship and community partnership

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Armstrong, C.E. )

    1993-01-01

    With the recent enactments of the environment, health and safety statutes, the once protective walls of an industrial facility are opening to the scrutiny of an inquisitive public. Indeed, the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA), Process Safety Management under OSHA 1910.119, and Title III of the Clean Air Act Amendments impose substantial reporting requirements under the auspices of community right to know'' and require written program plans that must be submitted to become public documents. Through these Acts, the public and industry are becoming partners in the understanding and management of human health and environmental risks posed by the chemical inventories, processes, and emissions from an industrial facility. The types of information required by the Act to be available to the public can include quantities, locations, process throughputs, environmental fates, and emissions volumes of manufacturer-specific chemicals for certain industrial facilities. With their implementation of compliance measures with these requirements, industrial facilities have an opportunity to become a public educator about the chemicals they use in the process of making their products. By proactively soliciting a partnership with communities to learn about their concerns, companies can more effectively communicate risks to the public and provide a new kind of stewardship to their products.

  19. Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

    1992-01-01

    This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ``risk categories`` are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies.

  20. Scientific Opportunities to Reduce Risk in Nuclear Process Science - 9279

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bredt, Paul R.; Felmy, Andrew R.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Poloski, Adam P.; Vienna, John D.; Moyer, Bruce A.; Hobbs, David; Wilmarth, B.; Mcilwain, Michael; Subramanian, K.; Krahn, Steve; Machara, N.

    2009-03-01

    In this document, we propose that scientific investments for the disposal of nuclear and hazardous wastes should not be focused solely on what may be viewed as current Department of Energy needs, but also upon longer-term investments in specific areas of science that underpin technologies presently in use. In the latter regard, we propose four science theme areas: 1) the structure and dynamics of materials and interfaces, 2) coupled chemical and physical processes, 3) complex solution phase phenomena, and 4) chemical recognition phenomena. The proposed scientific focus for each of these theme areas and the scientific opportunities are identified, along with links to major risks within the initiative areas identified in EMs Engineering and Technology Roadmap.

  1. Quantitative fire risk assessment for a proposed tritium technology facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zeng, Y. )

    1991-01-01

    A new Tritium Technology Facility has been proposed for the Chalk River Laboratories to support fusion research and the commercial use of tritium. One of the major safety and licensing issues for the new facility raised by the internal Safety Review Committee is the potential hazard fire poses to it. Fire could cause a large release from tritium from the facility's metal tritide storage beds, resulting in conversion of elemental tritium (HT) into oxide tritium (HTO). The radiological hazard of HTO is {approximately}10,000 times higher than that of HT. Because of the potential significance of fire in the tritium facility, a quantitative fire risk assessment has been conducted for the proposed new facility. The frequency of a large tritium release due to a fire in the Tritium Technology Facility was assessed as being on the order of 10{sup {minus}5} per year, which satisfies the safety goal requirement of the facility.

  2. Risk assessment of Cumberland unit 2 L-O blades

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lam, T.C.T.; Puri, A.

    1996-12-31

    Concern about the reliability of the 1,300 mw Cumberland steam turbine units after an unexpected blade tip failure in the fall of 1995 caused TVA to conduct an investigation into the current reliability of the L-O blades. A probabilistic model based on the measured frequencies, damping and material fatigue data was generated. The influence of significant erosion damage on the blade natural frequencies and on the local stresses was estimated. A probabilistic model of the local fatigue limit was generated based on test data. Monte Carlo simulation was employed to estimate the probability of blade failure by comparing the dynamic stress with the fatigue limit. Risk assessment of the blade failure is presented.

  3. Identification of chemical hazards for security risk analysis activities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell

    2005-01-01

    The presentation outline of this paper is: (1) How identification of chemical hazards fits into a security risk analysis approach; (2) Techniques for target identification; and (3) Identification of chemical hazards by different organizations. The summary is: (1) There are a number of different methodologies used within the chemical industry which identify chemical hazards: (a) Some develop a manual listing of potential targets based on published lists of hazardous chemicals or chemicals of concern, 'expert opinion' or known hazards. (b) Others develop a prioritized list based on chemicals found at a facility and consequence analysis (offsite release affecting population, theft of material, product tampering). (2) Identification of chemical hazards should include not only intrinsic properties of the chemicals but also potential reactive chemical hazards and potential use for activities off-site.

  4. Assuaging Nuclear Energy Risks: The Angarsk International Uranium Enrichment Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, Astasia [Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA and MonAme Scientific Research Center, Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia)

    2011-06-28

    The recent nuclear renaissance has motivated many countries, especially developing nations, to plan and build nuclear power reactors. However, domestic low enriched uranium demands may trigger nations to construct indigenous enrichment facilities, which could be redirected to fabricate high enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. The potential advantages of establishing multinational uranium enrichment sites are numerous including increased low enrichment uranium access with decreased nuclear proliferation risks. While multinational nuclear initiatives have been discussed, Russia is the first nation to actualize this concept with their Angarsk International Uranium Enrichment Center (IUEC). This paper provides an overview of the historical and modern context of the multinational nuclear fuel cycle as well as the evolution of Russia's IUEC, which exemplifies how international fuel cycle cooperation is an alternative to domestic facilities.

  5. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  6. Carbon tax or carbon permits: The impact on generators' risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Green, R.

    2008-07-01

    Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalized market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with costs that are not correlated with price, even if those costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators' profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted.

  7. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suski, N; Wuest, C

    2011-02-04

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment Phase brings together infrastructure owners and operators to identify critical assets and help the team create a structured information request. During this phase, we gain information about the critical assets from those who are most familiar with operations and interdependencies, making the time we spend on the ground conducting the assessment much more productive and enabling the team to make actionable recommendations. The Assessment Phase analyzes 10 areas: Threat environment, cyber architecture, cyber penetration, physical security, physical penetration, operations security, policies and procedures, interdependencies, consequence analysis, and risk characterization. Each of these individual tasks uses direct and indirect data collection, site inspections, and structured and facilitated workshops to gather data. Because of the importance of understanding the cyber threat, LLNL has built both fixed and mobile cyber penetration, wireless penetration and supporting tools that can be tailored to fit customer needs. The Post-Assessment Phase brings vulnerability and risk assessments to the customer in a format that facilitates implementation of mitigation options. Often the assessment findings and recommendations are briefed and discussed with several levels of management and, if appropriate, across jurisdictional boundaries. The end result is enhanced awareness and informed protective measures. Over the last 15 years, we have continued to refine our methodology and capture lessons learned and best practices. The resulting risk and decision framework thus takes into consideration real-world constraints, including regulatory, operational, and economic realities. In addition to 'on the ground' assessments focused on mitigating vulnerabilities, we have integrated our computational and atmospheric dispersion capability with easy-to-use geo-referenced visualization tools to support emergency planning and response operations. LLNL is home to the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) and the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC). NA

  8. Ecological risks of DOE`s programmatic environmental restoration alternatives

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-06-01

    This report assesses the ecological risks of the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Environmental Restoration Program. The assessment is programmatic in that it is directed at evaluation of the broad programmatic alternatives outlined in the DOE Implementation Plan. It attempts to (1) characterize the ecological resources present on DOE facilities, (2) describe the occurrence and importance of ecologically significant contamination at major DOE facilities, (3) evaluate the adverse ecological impacts of habitat disturbance caused by remedial activities, and (4) determine whether one or another of the programmatic alternatives is clearly ecologically superior to the others. The assessment focuses on six representative facilities: the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL); the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP); the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), including the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Y-12 plant, and K-25 plant; the Rocky Flats Plant; the Hanford Reservation; and the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant.

  9. Cooled silicon nitride stationary turbine vane risk reduction. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holowczak, John

    1999-12-31

    The purpose of this program was to reduce the technical risk factors for demonstration of air cooled silicon nitride turbine vanes. The effort involved vane prototype fabrication efforts at two U.S. based gas turbine grade silicon nitride component manufacturers. The efficacy of the cooling system was analyzed via a thermal time/temperature flow test technique previously at UTRC. By having multiple vendors work on parts fabrication, the chance of program success increased for producing these challenging components. The majority of the effort under this contract focused on developing methods for, and producing, the complex thin walled silicon nitride vanes. Components developed under this program will undergo engine environment testing within N00014-96-2-0014.

  10. Limitations of the planning organ at risk volume (PRV) concept

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stroom, Joep C. [Netherlands Cancer Institute, Department of Radiation Oncology, Amsterdam (Netherlands)]. E-mail: j.stroom@nki.nl; Heijmen, Ben J.M. [Erasmus MC-Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Department of Radiation Oncology, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-01

    Purpose: Previously, we determined a planning target volume (PTV) margin recipe for geometrical errors in radiotherapy equal to M{sub T} = 2{sigma} + 0.7{sigma}, with {sigma} and {sigma} standard deviations describing systematic and random errors, respectively. In this paper, we investigated margins for organs at risk (OAR), yielding the so-called planning organ at risk volume (PRV). Methods and Materials: For critical organs with a maximum dose (D{sub max}) constraint, we calculated margins such that D{sub max} in the PRV is equal to the motion averaged D{sub max} in the (moving) clinical target volume (CTV). We studied margins for the spinal cord in 10 head-and-neck cases and 10 lung cases, each with two different clinical plans. For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, we also investigated whether a margin recipe was feasible. Results: For the 20 spinal cords considered, the average margin recipe found was: M{sub R} = 1.6{sigma} + 0.2{sigma} with variations for systematic and random errors of 1.2{sigma} to 1.8{sigma} and -0.2{sigma} to 0.6{sigma}, respectively. The variations were due to differences in shape and position of the dose distributions with respect to the cords. The recipe also depended significantly on the volume definition of D{sub max}. For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, the PRV concept appears even less useful because a margin around, e.g., the rectum changes the volume in such a manner that dose-volume constraints stop making sense. Conclusion: The concept of PRV for planning of radiotherapy is of limited use. Therefore, alternative ways should be developed to include geometric uncertainties of OARs in radiotherapy planning.

  11. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  12. Analyzing health risks due to trace substance emissions from utility fossil-fired plants. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    EPRI has undertaken a number of project addressing a range of issues on the potential health effects due to long-term inhalation exposure to trace substances emitted from utility stacks. This report describes particular studies conducted to assess the health risks due to emissions from groups of power plants operated by individual utility companies. Researchers conducted specialized risk assessments for each of the power plants involved by incorporating utility-specific data into a modeling framework developed as part of EPRI`s Comprehensive Risk Evaluation (CORE) project to tailor the analysis for the individual utility. The results indicated the value of using more up-to-date, precise data in conducting risk assessments, rather than default assumptions. The report also describes CRAFT, the Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Toxics software package, developed to perform these utility-wide air toxics risk assessments.

  13. Examination of Risk Analysis Methods for MOX Land Transport in Japan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HOHNSTREITER, GLENN FREDRICK; PIERCE, JIM D.

    2003-04-01

    This report presents background information and methodology for a risk assessment of mixed oxide (MOX) reactor fuel transport in the nation of Japan to support their nuclear energy program. This work includes an extensive literature review, a review of other MOX activities worldwide, a survey of the statutory requirements for transporting nuclear materials, a discussion of risk assessment methodology, and calculation results for specific examples. Typical risk evaluations are given to provide guidance for later risk analyses specific to MOX fuel transport in Japan. This report also includes specific information that will be required for routes, cask types, accident-rate statistics, and population densities along specified routes, along with other detailed information needed for risk analysis studies pertinent to MOX transport in Japan. This information will be used in future specific risk studies.

  14. Improved understanding of geologic CO{sub 2} storage processes requires risk-driven field experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-06-01

    The need for risk-driven field experiments for CO{sub 2} geologic storage processes to complement ongoing pilot-scale demonstrations is discussed. These risk-driven field experiments would be aimed at understanding the circumstances under which things can go wrong with a CO{sub 2} capture and storage (CCS) project and cause it to fail, as distinguished from accomplishing this end using demonstration and industrial scale sites. Such risk-driven tests would complement risk-assessment efforts that have already been carried out by providing opportunities to validate risk models. In addition to experimenting with high-risk scenarios, these controlled field experiments could help validate monitoring approaches to improve performance assessment and guide development of mitigation strategies.

  15. Applications of risk management to waste combustion in boilers and industrial furnaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chrostowski, P.C.; Foster, S.A.; Kimball, H.J.

    1996-12-31

    Human health and ecological risk assessments have become routine for waste combustion in boilers and industrial furnaces (BIFs) as a result of USEPA`s Combustion Strategy, questions raised by citizens about the health effects of incineration, and the desire for the regulated community to have a level playing field regarding emissions regulations. The USEPA, National Academy of Sciences, various trade organizations, and individual researchers have published widely regarding methods for facility-specific risk assessments. Often these risk assessments are highly complex, site-specific documents that use advanced techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation. However, the risks that are calculated in these risk assessments are usually only used to compare to criteria for health effects and, thereby, develop permit conditions that are protective of health and the environment. Thus, the risk assessment is only used to derive a simple set of numbers and most of the information derived in the complex risk computations is lost. The object of this paper is to demonstrate how to derive more information from risk assessments that can be used in making management decisions. This paper will discuss the theory of risk management and present applications to combustion of waste in BIFs. For example, a permit applicant needed to make a decision among alternative air pollution control (APC) equipment sequences including scrubbers, fabric filters, and electrostatic precipitators. Limited life cycle analysis was used to determine the amount of direct and total waste produced by each of the alternatives. Monte Carlo risk assessment was used to determine the health risks associated with each of the alternatives and reliability analysis was employed to minimize both waste production and health risk.

  16. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.; Kido, C.; Phillips, J.H.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

  17. Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure Security and Resilience Report Now Available

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability has released a report that examines the key risks confronting critical energy infrastructure and ways in which the insurance industry can help manage these risks. In most developed countries, insurance is one of the principal risk management instruments for aiding in recovery after a disaster and for encouraging future investments that are more resilient to potential hazards.

  18. Guidance Manual for Conducting Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessments at the INEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

    1995-06-01

    This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

  19. Risk-Informed Design of Seismic Isolation Systems for Nuclear Facilities |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Risk-Informed Design of Seismic Isolation Systems for Nuclear Facilities Risk-Informed Design of Seismic Isolation Systems for Nuclear Facilities Presentation from the May 2015 Seismic Lessons-Learned Panel Meeting. PDF icon Risk-Informed Design of Seismic Isolation Systems for Nuclear Facilities More Documents & Publications Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Development of Industrially Viable Battery Electrode Coatings Verification Method for SSI

  20. DOE Releases Filing Instructions for Federal Risk Insurance for New Nuclear

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Power Plants | Department of Energy Filing Instructions for Federal Risk Insurance for New Nuclear Power Plants DOE Releases Filing Instructions for Federal Risk Insurance for New Nuclear Power Plants December 21, 2007 - 4:58pm Addthis Outlines Five Steps for New Nuclear Plant Sponsors to Enter Into a Conditional Agreement for Risk Insurance WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released instructions for companies building new nuclear power plants in the United States to

  1. FINAL Letter v1, 1/12/15, CRESP Site-Wide Risk Review Project 1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Letter v1, 1/12/15, CRESP Site-Wide Risk Review Project 1 Author: Pam Larsen The Honorable Monica Regalbuto Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management Subject: Discontinue funding for CRESP studies from Hanford cleanup dollars Dear Assistant Secretary Regalbuto: The Hanford Advisory Board (HAB) is writing with respect to the draft Hanford Site-Wide Risk Review Project's Interim Progress Report (August 31, 2015), prepared by the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation

  2. COLLOQUIUM: Risks of Nuclear Weapons Use in an Era of Proliferation, Cyber

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Warfare and Terrorism | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab 5, 2014, 4:00pm to 5:30pm Colloquia MGB Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: Risks of Nuclear Weapons Use in an Era of Proliferation, Cyber Warfare and Terrorism Dr. Bruce G. Blair Princeton University The United States and eight other countries that possess nuclear weapons run myriad risks every day -- risks of accidental detonations, of unauthorized launches caused by false warning, of provoking escalation between nuclear forces, and of nuclear

  3. Ten Ways to Lower Perceived Risk and Finance Rates within Federal Utility

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Service Contracts | Department of Energy Ten Ways to Lower Perceived Risk and Finance Rates within Federal Utility Energy Service Contracts Ten Ways to Lower Perceived Risk and Finance Rates within Federal Utility Energy Service Contracts Federal agencies can use the following 10 methods during project negotiations to lower perceived project risk and finance rates to get the best value from federal utility energy service contracts (UESCs). 1. Remember: Time is Money Money can be saved

  4. "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Security and Resilience" Report (March 2013) | Department of Energy "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure Security and Resilience" Report (March 2013) "Insurance as a Risk Management Instrument for Energy Infrastructure Security and Resilience" Report (March 2013) The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability has released a report that examines the key risks confronting critical energy infrastructure and ways in which the

  5. Phase 1 data summary report for the Clinch River Remedial Investigation: Health risk and ecological risk screening assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, R.B.; Adams, S.M.; Beauchamp, J.J.; Bevelhimer, M.S.; Blaylock, B.G.; Brandt, C.C.; Ford, C.J.; Frank, M.L.; Gentry, M.J.; Holladay, S.K.; Hook, L.A.; Levine, D.A.; Longman, R.C.; McGinn, C.W.; Skiles, J.L.; Suter, G.W.; Williams, L.F.

    1992-12-01

    The Clinch River Remedial Investigation (CRRI) is designed to address the transport, fate, and distribution of waterborne contaminants released from the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and to assess potential risks to human health and the environment associated with these contaminants. The contaminants released since the early 1940s include a variety of radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds. The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of Phase 1 of the CRRI. Phase 1 was designed to (1) obtain high-quality data to confirm existing historical data for contaminant levels in fish, sediment, and water from the CR/WBR; (2) determine the in the range of contaminant concentrations present river-reservoir system; (3) identify specific contaminants of concern; and (4) establish the reference (background) concentrations for those contaminants.

  6. Report: Removal of EM Projects from the GAO High Risk List

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    regulators and stakeholders internal and external to EM has occurred to the extent necessary to assure that any identified issues or risks are identified, resolved, and

  7. Qualitative Risk Assessment For An LNG Refueling Station And Review Of Relevant Safety Issues, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siu, Nathan; Herring, J Stephen; Cadwallader, Lee; Reece, Wendy; Byers, James

    2014-06-25

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of liquefied natural gas vehicle refueling facility.

  8. Risk Assessment in the RI/FS process, and derivation of cleanup...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - Conceptual Site Model, fate and transport, remedial action objectives Human Health Risk Assessment * Multiple "scenarios" were evaluated, each with different exposure assumptions...

  9. Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teuschler, Linda K.

    2007-09-01

    The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures.

  10. Loan Loss Reserve Fund Risk-Sharing Formula | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Risk-Sharing Formula Loan Loss Reserve Fund Risk-Sharing Formula When using a loan loss reserve (LLR) fund, the state or local government and financial institution must negotiate and agree to a risk-sharing formula with agreed-upon parameters. Parameters An LLR risk-sharing formula typically has two main parameters. The first is the ratio of the LLR funds to the total original principal amount of the loans in the energy efficiency/renewable energy loan portfolio. The single-family residential

  11. Proliferation Risks of Fusion Energy: Clandestine Production, Covert Production, and Breakout

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R.J. Goldston, A. Glaser, A.F. Ross

    2009-08-13

    Nuclear proliferation risks from fusion associated with access to weapon-usable material can be divided into three main categories: 1) clandestine production of fissile material in an undeclared facility, 2) covert production of such material in a declared and safeguarded facility, and 3) use of a declared facility in a breakout scenario, in which a state begins production of fissile material without concealing the effort. In this paper we address each of these categories of risk from fusion. For each case, we find that the proliferation risk from fusion systems can be much lower than the equivalent risk from fission systems, if commercial fusion systems are designed to accommodate appropriate safeguards.

  12. Alerting device and method for reminding a person of a risk

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Runyon, Larry (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Gunter, Wayne M. (West Richland, WA) [West Richland, WA; Pratt, Richard M. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA

    2001-11-27

    An alerting device and method to remind personnel of a risk is disclosed. The device has at least two sensors, a logic controller, a power source, and an annunciator that delivers a visual message, with or without an audible alarm, about a risk to a person when the sensors detect the person exiting a predetermined space. In particular, the present invention reminds a person of a security, safety, or health risk upon exiting a predetermined space. More particularly, the present invention reminds a person of an information security risk relating to sensitive, proprietary, confidential, trade secret, classified, or intellectual property information.

  13. Agenda- Interagency Steering Committee on Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Annual Technical Exchange Meeting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Final Agenda for the December, 2014 Interagency Steering Committee on Performance and Risk Assessment Community of Practice Annual Technical Exchange Meeting held in Las Vegas, Nevada.

  14. Rebaselining seismic risks for resumption of Building 707 plutonium operations at the Rocky Flats Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elia, F. Jr.; Foppe, T.; Stahlnecker, E.

    1993-08-01

    Natural phenomena risks have been assessed for plutonium handling facilities at the Rocky Flats Plant, based on numerous studies performed for the Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Project. The risk assessment was originally utilized in the facilities Final Safety Analysis Reports and in subsequent risk management decisions. Plutonium production operations were curtailed in 1989 in order for a new operating contractor to implement safety improvements. Since natural phenomena events dominated risks to the public, a re-assessment of these events were undertaken for resumption of plutonium operations.

  15. E.O. 13690 (2015): Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    On January 30, 2015, President Obama signed an Executive Order (E.O.) 13690, Establishing a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and a Process for Further Soliciting and...

  16. UCRL-JC-1197l5 PREPRINT HUMAN HEALTH RISKS FROM TNT, RDX, and...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... CANCER RISK AND NONCARCINOGENIC HAZARD The exposure-pathway-specific cancer potency (slope) factors (CPFs), which are the upper-bound probabilities of an individual developing ...

  17. Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Thompson, Julie; Leclaire, Rene; Edward, Bryan; Jones, Edward

    2014-06-01

    Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, riskbased technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by an integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.

  18. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  19. RAVEN and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Software overview

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Diego Mandelli; Joshua Cogliati; Robert Kinoshita; Antonio Naviglio

    2014-09-01

    RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 [], currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism has been employed by providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response, investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper presents an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by some application examples.

  20. Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project - Oak Ridge

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    D D e e p p a a r r t t m m e e n n t t o o f f E E n n e e r r g g y y O O f f f f i i c c e e o o f f E E n n v v i i r r o o n n m m e e n n t t a a l l M M a a n n a a g g e e m m e e n n t t ( ( E E M M ) ) E E n n g g i i n n e e e e r r i i n n g g a a n n d d T T e e c c h h n n o o l l o o g g y y External Technical Review (ETR) Report Major Risk Factors Integrated Facility Disposition Project (IFDP) Oak Ridge, TN AUGUST 1, 2008 Acknowledgement The External Technical Review of the

  1. Relative risk site evaluations for Yakima Training Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, R.M.; Whelan, G.

    1996-11-01

    All 20 U.S. Army Yakima Training Center (YTC) sites evaluated were given a `low` relative risk. At Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 22, a `minimum` soils contaminant hazard factor was assigned even though 6,700 mg/kg TPH-diesel was found in surface soil. SWMU 22 is physically located on top of and with the fence surrounding Area of Concern (AOC) 4. Because the diesel is most likely associated with AOC 4, and plans are to clean up AOC 4, any further actions regarding these contaminated soils should be addressed as part of the planned actions for AOC 4. Contaminant hazard factors of `moderate` were assigned to the soil pathway for SWMUs 4 and 7 because dieldrin and arsenic, respectively, were found in surface soil samples at concentrations exceeding standards. A `moderate` contaminant hazard factor was also assigned to the sediment pathway for AOC 1 because arsenic detected in sediments in `Larry`s Swimming Pool` exceeded the standard. All other contaminant hazard factors were rated as minimal. The receptor factor for all sites and pathways was rated `limited,` except for SWMU 54 in which the groundwater receptor factor was rated `potential.` A `potential` rating was assigned to the groundwater pathway at this site to be conservative. The site is located on the south side of the syncline axis where the unconfined aquifer may be present and there are no monitoring wells at the site to confirm or deny the presence of groundwater contamination.

  2. Risk-Quantified Decision-Making at Rocky Flats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, Jeffrey C.

    2008-01-15

    Surface soils in the 903 Pad Lip Area of the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) were contaminated with {sup 239/240}Pu by site operations. To meet remediation goals, accurate definition of areas where {sup 239/240}Pu activity exceeded the threshold level of 50 pCi/g and those below 50- pCi/g needed definition. In addition, the confidence for remedial decisions needed to be quantified and displayed visually. Remedial objectives needed to achieve a 90 percent certainty that unremediated soils had less than a 10 percent chance of {sup 239/240}Pu activity exceeding 50-pCi/g. Removing areas where the chance of exceedance is greater than 10 percent creates a 90 percent confidence in the remedial effort results. To achieve the stipulated goals, the geostatistical approach of probability kriging (Myers 1997) was implemented. Lessons learnt: Geostatistical techniques provided a risk-quantified approach to remedial decision-making and provided visualizations of the excavation area. Error analysis demonstrated compliance and confirmed that more than sufficient soils were removed. Error analysis also illustrated that any soils above the threshold that were not removed would be of nominal activity. These quantitative approaches were useful from a regulatory, engineering, and stakeholder satisfaction perspective.

  3. Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Friedrich, Steinhaeusler; Lyudmila, Zaitseva; Stan, Rydell

    2008-08-07

    The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb).This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment.

  4. Exploring Complex Systems Aspects of Blackout Risk and Mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Newman, David E [University of Alaska; Carreras, Benjamin A [ORNL; Lynch, Vickie E [ORNL; Dobson, Ian [University of Wisconsin, Madison

    2011-01-01

    Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure, and blackouts of these systems have major consequences for the economy and national security. Analyses of blackout data suggest that blackout size distributions have a power law form over much of their range. This result is an indication that blackouts behave as a complex dynamical system. We use a simulation of an upgrading power transmission system to investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power law region. Thus, while the absolute frequency of blackouts of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large blackouts to small blackouts to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small blackouts can even increase the frequency of large blackouts. This result occurs because the large and small blackouts are not mutually independent, but are strongly coupled by the complex dynamics.

  5. A Risk Management Approach to the "Insider Threat"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bishop, Matt; Engle, Sophie J.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Gates, Carrie; Greitzer, Frank L.; Peisert, Sean; Whalen, Sean

    2010-09-01

    Abstract Recent surveys indicate that the financial impact and operating losses due to insider intrusions are increasing. But these studies often disagree on what constitutes an insider; indeed, many define it only implicitly. In theory, appropriate selection of, and enforcement of, properly specified security policies should prevent legitimate users from abusing their access to computer systems, information, and other resources. However, even if policies could be expressed precisely, the natural mapping between the natural language expression of a security policy, and the expression of that policy in a form that can be implemented on a computer system or network, creates gaps in enforcement. This paper defines insider precisely, in terms of these gaps, and explores an access-based model for analyzing threats that include those usually termed insider threats. This model enables an organization to order its resources based on the business value for that resource and of the information it contains. By identifying those users with access to high-value resources, we obtain an ordered list of users who can cause the greatest amount of damage. Concurrently with this, we examine psychological indicators in order to determine which users are at the greatest risk of acting inappropriately.We conclude by examining how to merge this model with one of forensic logging and auditing.

  6. Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2002-01-01

    In February 2002 the Secretary of Energy directed the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare a report on the nature and use of derivative contracts in the petroleum, natural gas, and electricity industries. Derivatives are contracts ('financial instruments') that are used to manage risk, especially price risk.

  7. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia; Galyean, William; Gupta, Abhinav; Dimitrijevic, Vesna; Malsch, Marty

    2003-01-29

    OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

  8. Information resources used in health risk assessment by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Post, G.B.; Baratta, M.; Wolfson, S.; McGeorge, L.

    1990-12-31

    The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection`s responsibilities related to health-based risk assessment are described, including its research projects and its development of health based compound specific standards and guidance levels. The resources used by the agency to support health risk assessment work are outlined.

  9. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Cancer classification issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiltse, J.

    1990-12-31

    Issues presented are related to classification of weight of evidence in cancer risk assessments. The focus in this paper is on lines of evidence used in constructing a conclusion about potential human carcinogenicity. The paper also discusses issues that are mistakenly addressed as classification issues but are really part of the risk assessment process. 2 figs.

  10. GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teresa E. Jordan

    2015-09-30

    This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with fairways or industries added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet list_of_contents.csv in the folder SupportingInfo. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder combining_metrics.

  11. Identification and Prioritization of Analysis Cases for Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Risk Screening

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-06-16

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of marine and hydrokinetic energy generation projects. The development process consists of two main phases of analysis. In the first phase, preliminary risk analyses will take the form of screening studies in which key environmental impacts and the uncertainties that create risk are identified, leading to a better-focused characterization of the relevant environmental effects. Existence of critical data gaps will suggest areas in which specific modeling and/or data collection activities should take place. In the second phase, more detailed quantitative risk analyses will be conducted, with residual uncertainties providing the basis for recommending risk mitigation and monitoring activities. We also describe the process used for selecting three cases for fiscal year 2010 risk screening analysis using the ERES. A case is defined as a specific technology deployed in a particular location involving certain environmental receptors specific to that location. The three cases selected satisfy a number of desirable criteria: 1) they correspond to real projects whose deployment is likely to take place in the foreseeable future; 2) the technology developers are willing to share technology and project-related data; 3) the projects represent a diversity of technology-site-receptor characteristics; 4) the projects are of national interest, and 5) environmental effects data may be available for the projects.

  12. Analyses to support development of risk-informed separation distances for hydrogen codes and standards.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Houf, William G.; Fluer, Inc., Paso Robels, CA; Fluer, Larry; Middleton, Bobby

    2009-03-01

    The development of a set of safety codes and standards for hydrogen facilities is necessary to ensure they are designed and operated safely. To help ensure that a hydrogen facility meets an acceptable level of risk, code and standard development organizations are tilizing risk-informed concepts in developing hydrogen codes and standards.

  13. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  14. Developing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Storage CO2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duncan, Ian

    2014-08-31

    The operational risks for CCS projects include: risks of capturing, compressing, transporting and injecting CO₂; risks of well blowouts; risk that CO₂ will leak into shallow aquifers and contaminate potable water; and risk that sequestered CO₂ will leak into the atmosphere. This report examines these risks by using information on the risks associated with analogue activities such as CO2 based enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), natural gas storage and acid gas disposal. We have developed a new analysis of pipeline risk based on Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian theory probabilities may describe states of partial knowledge, even perhaps those related to non-repeatable events. The Bayesian approach enables both utilizing existing data and at the same time having the capability to adsorb new information thus to lower uncertainty in our understanding of complex systems. Incident rates for both natural gas and CO2 pipelines have been widely used in papers and reports on risk of CO2 pipelines as proxies for the individual risk created by such pipelines. Published risk studies of CO2 pipelines suggest that the individual risk associated with CO2 pipelines is between 10-3 and 10-4, which reflects risk levels approaching those of mountain climbing, which many would find unacceptably high. This report concludes, based on a careful analysis of natural gas pipeline failures, suggests that the individual risk of CO2 pipelines is likely in the range of 10-6 to 10-7, a risk range considered in the acceptable to negligible range in most countries. If, as is commonly thought, pipelines represent the highest risk component of CCS outside of the capture plant, then this conclusion suggests that most (if not all) previous quantitative- risk assessments of components of CCS may be orders of magnitude to high. The potential lethality of unexpected CO2 releases from pipelines or wells are arguably the highest risk aspects of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), carbon capture, and storage (CCS). Assertions in the CCS literature, that CO2 levels of 10% for ten minutes, or 20 to 30% for a few minutes are lethal to humans, are not supported by the available evidence. The results of published experiments with animals exposed to CO2, from mice to monkeys, at both normal and depleted oxygen levels, suggest that lethal levels of CO2 toxicity are in the range 50 to 60%. These experiments demonstrate that CO2 does not kill by asphyxia, but rather is toxic at high concentrations. It is concluded that quantitative risk assessments of CCS have overestimated the risk of fatalities by using values of lethality a factor two to six lower than the values estimated in this paper. In many dispersion models of CO2 releases from pipelines, no fatalities would be predicted if appropriate levels of lethality for CO2 had been used in the analysis.

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK-BASED AND TECHNOLOGY-INDEPENDENT SAFETY CRITERIA FOR GENERATION IV SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William E. Kastenberg; Edward Blandford; Lance Kim

    2009-03-31

    This project has developed quantitative safety goals for Generation IV (Gen IV) nuclear energy systems. These safety goals are risk based and technology independent. The foundations for a new approach to risk analysis has been developed, along with a new operational definition of risk. This project has furthered the current state-of-the-art by developing quantitative safety goals for both Gen IV reactors and for the overall Gen IV nuclear fuel cycle. The risk analysis approach developed will quantify performance measures, characterize uncertainty, and address a more comprehensive view of safety as it relates to the overall system. Appropriate safety criteria are necessary to manage risk in a prudent and cost-effective manner. This study is also important for government agencies responsible for managing, reviewing, and for approving advanced reactor systems because they are charged with assuring the health and safety of the public.

  16. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-12-31

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative risk analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or end states. These postulated options or end states can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal land.

  17. Public perceptions of industrial risks: the context of public attitudes toward radioactive waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Earle, T.C.

    1981-06-01

    A survey was made to determine the public risk perception of several industrial hazards. A free response approach was used in order for respondents to generate their own alternatives. The general class of hazard investigated here included all hazardous industrial facilities. The free response survey was used to study public perception of: (a) the closeness of the nearest hazardous industrial facility (as estimated by the respondent); (b) the sort of facility it is; (c) the sorts of risk associated with it; and (d) the persons placed at risk by it. Respondents also identified the risks of, and the persons placed at risk by, both a toxic chemical disposal facility and a nuclear waste disposal facility. Results of this study thus can inform us of the unprompted concerns of the public regarding a wide variety of industrial facilities.

  18. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  19. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaeger, Calvin D.; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  20. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S.

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  1. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  2. Potential Risks of Freshwater Aquifer Contamination with Geosequestration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jackson, Robert

    2013-09-30

    Substantial leakage of CO{sub 2} from deep geological strata to shallow potable aquifers is likely to be rare, but chemical detection of potential leakage nonetheless remains an integral component of any safe carbon capture and storage system. CO{sub 2} that infiltrates an unconfined freshwater aquifer will have an immediate impact on water chemistry by lowering pH in most cases and by altering the concentration of total dissolved solids. Chemical signatures in affected waters provide an important opportunity for early detection of leaks. In the presence of CO{sub 2}, trace elements such as Mn, Fe, and Ca can increase by an order of magnitude or more above control concentrations within 100 days. Therefore, these and other elements should be monitored along with pH as geochemical markers of potential CO{sub 2} leaks. Dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity can also be rapidly responsive to CO{sub 2} and are stable indicators of a leak. Importantly, such changes may be detectable long before direct changes in CO{sub 2} are observed. The experimental results also suggest that the relative severity of the impact of leaks on overlying drinking-water aquifers should be considered in the selection of CO{sub 2} sequestration sites. One primary selection criteria should be metal and metalloid availability, such as uranium and arsenic abundance, to carefully monitor chemical species that could trigger changes above maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Overall, the risks of leakage from underground CO{sub 2} storage are real but appear to be manageable if systems are closely monitored.

  3. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  4. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study Documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The RiskMod Model is comprised of a set of risk simulation models, collectively referred to as RiskSim; a set of computer programs that manages data referred to as Data Management Procedures; and RevSim, a model that calculates net revenues. RiskMod interacts with the AURORA Model, the RAM2007, and the ToolKit Model during the process of performing the Risk Analysis Study. AURORA is the computer model being used to perform the Market Price Forecast Study (see Market Price Forecast Study, WP-07-E-BPA-03); the RAM2007 is the computer model being used to calculate rates (see Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05); and the ToolKit is the computer model being used to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard (see Section 3 in the Risk Analysis Study, WP-07-E-BPA-04). Variations in monthly loads, resources, natural gas prices, forward market electricity prices, transmission expenses, and aluminum smelter benefit payments are simulated in RiskSim. Monthly spot market electricity prices for the simulated loads, resources, and natural gas prices are estimated by the AURORA Model. Data Management Procedures facilitate the format and movement of data that flow to and/or from RiskSim, AURORA, and RevSim. RevSim estimates net revenues using risk data from RiskSim, spot market electricity prices from AURORA, loads and resources data from the Load Resource Study, WP-07-E-BPA-01, various revenues from the Revenue Forecast component of the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05, and rates and expenses from the RAM2007. Annual average surplus energy revenues, purchased power expenses, and section 4(h)(10)(C) credits calculated by RevSim are used in the Revenue Forecast and the RAM2007. Heavy Load Hour (HLH) and Light Load Hour (LLH) surplus and deficit energy values from RevSim are used in the Transmission Expense Risk Model. Net revenues estimated for each simulation by RevSim are input into the ToolKit Model to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard. The processes and interaction between each of the models and studies are depicted in Graph 1.

  5. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study Documentation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    The RiskMod Model is comprised of a set of risk simulation models, collectively referred to as RiskSim; a set of computer programs that manages data referred to as Data Management Procedures; and RevSim, a model that calculates net revenues. RiskMod interacts with the AURORA Model, the RAM2007, and the ToolKit Model during the process of performing the Risk Analysis Study. AURORA is the computer model being used to perform the Market Price Forecast Study (see Market Price Forecast Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-03); the RAM2007 is the computer model being used to calculate rates (see Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-05); and the ToolKit is the computer model being used to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard (see Section 3 in the Risk Analysis Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-04). Variations in monthly loads, resources, natural gas prices, forward market electricity prices, transmission expenses, and aluminum smelter benefit payments are simulated in RiskSim. Monthly spot market electricity prices for the simulated loads, resources, and natural gas prices are estimated by the AURORA Model. Data Management Procedures facilitate the format and movement of data that flow to and/or from RiskSim, AURORA, and RevSim. RevSim estimates net revenues using risk data from RiskSim, spot market electricity prices from AURORA, loads and resources data from the Load Resource Study, WP-07-FS-BPA-01, various revenues from the Revenue Forecast component of the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-FSBPA-05, and rates and expenses from the RAM2007. Annual average surplus energy revenues, purchased power expenses, and section 4(h)(10)(C) credits calculated by RevSim are used in the Revenue Forecast and the RAM2007. Heavy Load Hour (HLH) and Light Load Hour (LLH) surplus and deficit energy values from RevSim are used in the Transmission Expense Risk Model. Net revenues estimated for each simulation by RevSim are input into the ToolKit Model to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard. The processes and interaction between each of the models and studies are depicted in Graph 1.

  6. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

  7. Assessing the health risks of natural CO2 seeps in Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, J.J.; Wood, R.A.; Haszeldine, R.S.

    2011-10-04

    Industrialized societies which continue to use fossil fuel energy sources are considering adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology to meet carbon emission reduction targets. Deep geological storage of CO2 onshore faces opposition regarding potential health effects of CO2 leakage from storage sites. There is no experience of commercial scale CCS with which to verify predicted risks of engineered storage failure. Studying risk from natural CO2 seeps can guide assessment of potential health risks from leaking onshore CO2 stores. Italy and Sicily are regions of intense natural CO2 degassing from surface seeps. These seeps exhibit a variety of expressions, characteristics (e.g., temperature/ flux), and location environments. Here we quantify historical fatalities from CO2 poisoning using a database of 286 natural CO2 seeps in Italy and Sicily. We find that risk of human death is strongly influenced by seep surface expression, local conditions (e.g., topography and wind speed), CO2 flux, and human behavior. Risk of accidental human death from these CO2 seeps is calculated to be 10-8 year-1 to the exposed population. This value is significantly lower than that of many socially accepted risks. Seepage from future storage sites is modeled to be less than Italian natural flux rates. With appropriate hazard management, health risks from unplanned seepage at onshore storage sites can be adequately minimized.

  8. A framework for assessing ecological risks of petroleum-derived materials in soil

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1997-05-01

    Ecological risk assessment estimates the nature and likelihood of effects of human actions on nonhuman organisms, populations, and ecosystems. It is intended to be clearer and more rigorous in its approach to estimation of effects and uncertainties than previously employed methods of ecological assessment. Ecological risk assessment is characterized by a standard paradigm that includes problem formulation, analysis of exposure and effects, risk characterization, and communication with a risk manager. This report provides a framework that applies the paradigm to the specific problem of assessing the ecological risks of petroleum in soil. This type of approach requires that assessments be performed in phases: (1) a scoping assessment to determine whether there is a potential route of exposure for potentially significant ecological receptors; (2) a screening assessment to determine whether exposures could potentially reach toxic levels; and (3) a definitive assessment to estimate the nature, magnitude, and extent of risks. The principal technical issue addressed is the chemically complex nature of petroleum--a complexity that may be dealt with by assessing risks on the basis of properties of the whole material, properties of individual chemicals that are representative of chemical classes, distributions of properties of the constituents of chemical classes, properties of chemicals detected in the soil, and properties of indicator chemicals. The advantages and feasibility of these alternatives are discussed. The report concludes with research recommendations for improving each stage in the assessment process.

  9. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  10. Waste management project's alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project's alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is examined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  11. Developing guidelines for improved assessment of risk to environmental receptors in NEPA documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cunningham, M.; Abbott, L.; Berger, J.

    1995-12-01

    NAEP`s NEPA Practice Committee has formed several subcommittees to develop guidelines, and ultimately standards, for conducting various analyses to meet the letter and spirit of NEPA. The authors comprise the Ecological Risk Assessment Subcommittee, and our purpose is to identify those aspects of ecological risk assessment of potentially greatest use in analyses for NEPA documents and to make this information available to NAEP members and other NEPA practioners. Our task is to identify procedures and techniques commonly used in ecological risk assessment for CERCLA and RCRA compliance that are useful directly, or in modified form, to improve the estimation of risk to environmental receptors in NEPA analyses. Environmental receptors include biota and media such as air and water. Our approach is to focus first on the practical aspects of environmental assessment for NEPA that we identify as needing improvement. These include: (1) knowing when a quantitative risk assessment is warranted; (2) assigning significance of potential harm; (3) how to assess cumulative risk; (4) how to cope with missing information and knowing when surrogate information is available and appropriate to use; (5) efficiency in analysis - lack of explicit screening steps; and (6) biodiversity-related effects assessment. Specific steps to help environmental professionals prepare NEPA documents to address these issues will be presented, including references to NEPA documents that employ explicit risk estimation.

  12. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana open bays. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1996-03-22

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has a program of research in the environmental aspects of oil and gas extraction. This sampling project will characterize the environmental impacts associated with the discharge of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM), metals and organics in produced water. This report is part of a series of studies of the health and ecological risks from discharges of produced water to the Gulf of Mexico, supported by the USDOE. These assessments are being coordinated with the field study, using the collected data to perform human health and ecological risk assessments. These assessments will provide input to regulators in the development of guidelines and permits, and to industry in the development and use of appropriate discharge practices. The initial human health and ecological risk assessments consist of conservative screening analyses meant to identify potentially important contaminants, and to eliminate others from further consideration. More quantitative assessments were done for contaminants identified, in the screening analysis, as being of potential concern. Section 2 gives an overview of human health and ecological risk assessment to help put the analyses presented here in perspective. Section 3 provides the hazard assessment portion of the risk assessment, and identifies the important receptors and pathways of concern. Section 3 also outlines the approach taken to the risk assessments presented in the rest of the report. The remaining sections (4 through 9) present the human health and ecological risk assessments for discharges of produced water to open bays in Louisiana.

  13. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Coles, Garill A.; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic operation while maintaining adequate safety margins.

  14. Comparison of AB2588 multipathway risk factors for California fossil-fuel power stations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L.

    1997-12-31

    Substances released from power plants may travel through various exposure pathways resulting in human health and environmental risks. The stack air emission`s primary pathway is inhalation from the ambient air. Multipathway factors (adjustment factors to the inhalation risk) are used to evaluate the importance of non-inhalation pathways (such as ingestion and dermal contact). The multipathway factor for a specific substance is the health risk by all pathways divided by the inhalation health risk for that substance. These factors are compared for fossil fuel power stations that submitted regulatory risk assessments in compliance with California Toxic Hot Spots Act (AB2588). Substances representing the largest contributions to the cancer risk are of primary concern: arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium (+6), formaldehyde, nickel, lead, selenium, and PAHs. Comparisons of the chemical-specific multipathway factors show the impacts of regulatory policy decisions on the estimated health risk for trace substances. As an example, point estimates of the soil mixing depth, varying from 1 cm to 15 cm, relate to the relative importance of the pathway. For the deeper mixing depths, the root-zone uptake by homegrown tomato plants (for assumed consumption rate of 15% for San Diego) may result in high multipathway factors for several trace metals. For shallower mixing depths, soil ingestion may become the dominant non-inhalation pathway. These differences may lead to significantly different risk estimates for similar facilities located at different California locations such as to be under local regulatory authorities. The overall multipathway factor for the total cancer risk is about 2, much smaller than some of the chemical-specific factors. Science-based multipathway analysis should reduce much of the concern that may be due to policy-based decisions on pathway selection and high-value point-estimates of the parameters.

  15. Baseline biological risk assessment for aquatic populations occurring near Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dauble, D.; Brandt, C.; Lewis, R.; Smith, R.

    1995-12-31

    Eielson Air Force Base (AFB), Alaska was listed as a Superfund site in November 1989 with 64 potential source areas of contamination. As part of a sitewide remedial investigation, baseline risk assessments were conducted in 1993 and 1994 to evaluate hazards posed to biological receptors and to human health. Fish tissue, aquatic invertebrates, aquatic vegetation, sediment, and surface water data were collected from several on-site and off-site surface water bodies. An initial screening risk assessment indicated that several surface water sites along two major tributary creeks flowing through the base had unacceptable risks to both aquatic receptors and to human health because of DDTs. Other contaminants of concern (i.e., PCBs and PAHs) were below screening risk levels for aquatic organisms, but contributed to an unacceptable risk to human health. Additional samples was taken in 1994 to characterize the site-wide distribution of PAHs, DDTs, and PCBs in aquatic biota and sediments. Concentrations of PAHs were invertebrates > aquatic vegetation > fish, but concentrations were sufficiently low that they posed no significant risk to biological receptors. Pesticides were detected in all fish tissue samples. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were also detected in most fish from Garrison Slough. The pattern of PCB concentrations in Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) was related to their proximity to a sediment source in lower Garrison Slough. Ingestion of PCB-contaminated fish is the primary human-health risk driver for surface water bodies on Eielson AFB, resulting in carcinogenic risks > 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} for future recreational land-use at some sites. Principal considerations affecting uncertainty in the risk assessment process included spatial and temporal variability in media contaminant concentrations and inconsistencies between modelled and measured body burdens.

  16. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  17. Contents of risk assessments to support the retrieval and closure of tanks for the Washington State Department of Ecology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MANN, F.M.

    2003-03-21

    Before the Integrated Mission Acceleration Plan can be performed, risk assessments of various options must be performed for ORP, DOE Headquarters, and the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This document focuses on the risk assessments for Ecology.

  18. Scientific Opportunities to Reduce Risk in Nuclear Process Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bredt, Paul R.; Felmy, Andrew R.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Poloski, Adam P.; Vienna, John D.; Moyer, Bruce A.; Hobbs, David; Wilmarth, B.; Mcilwain, Michael; Subramanian, K.; Krahn, Steve; Machara, N.

    2009-08-28

    Cleaning up the nations nuclear weapons complex remains as one of the most technologically challenging and financially costly problems facing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Safety, cost, and technological challenges have often delayed progress in retrieval, processing, and final disposition of high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and challenging materials. Some of the issues result from the difficulty and complexity of the technological issues; others have programmatic bases, such as strategies that may provide undue focus on near-term goals or difficulty in developing and maintaining stakeholder confidence in the proposed solutions. We propose that independent basic fundamental science research, addressing the full cleanup life-cycle, offers an opportunity to help address these challenges by providing 1) scientific insight into the fundamental mechanisms involved in currently selected processing and disposal options, 2) a rational path to the development of alternative technologies should the primary options fail, 3) confidence that models that predict long-term performance of different disposal options are based upon the best available science, and 4) fundamental science discovery that enables transformational solutions to revolutionize the current baseline processes. Over the last 3 years, DOEs Office of Environmental Management (EM) has experienced a fundamental shift in philosophy. The mission focus of driving to closure has been replaced by one of enabling the long-term needs of DOE and the nation. Resolving new challenges, such as the disposition of DOE spent nuclear fuel, have been added to EMs responsibilities. In addition, the schedules for addressing several elements of the cleanup mission have been extended. As a result, EMs mission is no longer focused only on driving the current baselines to closure. Meeting the mission will require fundamental advances over at least a 30-year window if not longer as new challenges are added. The overall intent of this paper is to foster a dialogue on how basic scientific research can assist DOE in executing its cleanup and environmental management mission. In this paper, we propose that such scientific investments not be focused solely on what may be viewed as current DOE needs, but also be based upon longer-term investments in specific areas of science that underpin technologies presently in use. In the latter regard, we propose four science theme areas: 1) the structure and dynamics of materials and interfaces, 2) coupled chemical and physical processes, 3) complex solution phase phenomena, and 4) chemical recognition phenomena. The proposed scientific focus for each of these theme areas and the scientific opportunities are identified, along with links to major risks within the initiative areas identified in EMs Engineering and Technology Roadmap.

  19. Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    Nuclear simulations are often computationally expensive, time-consuming, and high-dimensional with respect to the number of input parameters. Thus exploring the space of all possible simulation outcomes is infeasible using finite computing resources. During simulation-based probabilistic risk analysis, it is important to discover the relationship between a potentially large number of input parameters and the output of a simulation using as few simulation trials as possible. This is a typical context for performing adaptive sampling where a few observations are obtained from the simulation, a surrogate model is built to represent the simulation space, and new samples are selected based on the model constructed. The surrogate model is then updated based on the simulation results of the sampled points. In this way, we attempt to gain the most information possible with a small number of carefully selected sampled points, limiting the number of expensive trials needed to understand features of the simulation space. We analyze the specific use case of identifying the limit surface, i.e., the boundaries in the simulation space between system failure and system success. In this study, we explore several techniques for adaptively sampling the parameter space in order to reconstruct the limit surface. We focus on several adaptive sampling schemes. First, we seek to learn a global model of the entire simulation space using prediction models or neighborhood graphs and extract the limit surface as an iso-surface of the global model. Second, we estimate the limit surface by sampling in the neighborhood of the current estimate based on topological segmentations obtained locally. Our techniques draw inspirations from topological structure known as the Morse-Smale complex. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using a global prediction model versus local topological view of the simulation space, comparing several different strategies for adaptive sampling in both contexts. One of the most interesting models we propose attempt to marry the two by obtaining a coarse global representation using prediction models, and a detailed local representation based on topology. Our methods are validated on several analytical test functions as well as a small nuclear simulation dataset modeled after a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor.

  20. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua; Kinoshita, Robert

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling strategies, and post processing analysis capabilities. The first part of the report provides an extensive description of two major developments introduced this year: adaptive sampling for limit surface sampling and multi variate distributions. The document concludes with a description of the demo case (BWR-SBO) and a discussion of the results obtained.