National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for future forecasting system

  1. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  2. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  3. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  4. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  7. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  8. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  10. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  11. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  12. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01

    index.html. Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for FuturesError STEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futuresof forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the

  13. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs: FORECASTING EARTH'S SURFACE RESPONSE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Brad Murray, A.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  14. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01

    Union Carbide's Taft Plant is a typical petrochemical complex with several processes that use and produce various fuel and steam resources. The plant steam and fuel system balances vary extensively since several process units 'block operate...

  15. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  16. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  17. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  18. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  20. Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  3. Reconstruction of the Past and Forecast of the Future European and British Ice Sheets and Associated Sea–Level Change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hagdorn, Magnus K M

    The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of the past European and British ice sheets as a basis for forecasting their future. The behaviour of these ice sheets is investigated by simulating them using a ...

  4. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  5. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  9. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  10. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  11. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  12. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  14. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  16. Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fievet, Lucas; Cauwels, Peter; Sornette, Didier

    2014-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.

  17. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  18. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  19. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  20. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  2. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  3. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

  5. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01

    Farland (Member) J esTR ao (Head of Department) May 1991 ABSTRACT Streamflow Forecasting for Large-Scale Hydrologic Systems. (May 1991) Haitham Munir Awwad, B. S. , University of Jordan Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Juan B. Valdes An on-line streamflow... thankful to Dr. Ralph A. Wurbs and Dr. Marshall J. McFarland for their assistance on my advisory committee. Support for this thesis by the Department of Civil Engineering through the Engineering Excellence Fund, and by the U, S. Army Corps of Engineers...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  8. Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds STEVIE ROQUELAURE of uncertainty that lead to dispersion. Key words: Local numerical forecast system, fog and low clouds, seasonal prediction system. 1. Introduction Accurate prediction of fog and low clouds is one of the main issues

  9. Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer: From Future Power Systems (FPS) articles 18...

  10. A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios

    A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) A Papaioannou1 Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore »larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  12. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  13. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  14. Negotiating future climates for public policy: a critical assessment of the development of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hulme, Mike

    ) or of seasonal forecasting (a few months): Earth system models aim to simulate future climatic evolution over

  15. Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dorta, Miguel

    2012-07-16

    - returns has excess kurtosis or skewness, Gaussian based forecast could overexpose investors to financial risk. GARCH-class models, extensively used for log-returns density forecasting, have a somewhat limited ability to allow higher moments to be time... pricing model, which is based on the assumption of a log- normal density and risk-neutrality, would coincide with the true only if the underlying price process is a Brownian motion. Hence, differences between BS-derived put-IVs versus BS-derived call...

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  17. Ris Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risø Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems 3 Introduction In evaluations of long term energy forecasts made in the past the conclusion often is that a large number on internationally recognised scientific material". One key observation in a recent evaluation of long term energy

  18. Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, Shu-Ching Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud, Miami FL {ksale002, sadjadi,chens}@cs.fiu.edu ABSTRACT Current weather forecast and visualization systems lack the scalability to support numerous customized requests for weather research and forecasting

  19. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  20. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  1. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  2. Development of Load Forecasting Procedures for the Texas A&M University System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baltazar-Cervantes, J. C.; Lim, C.; Haberl, J. S.; Turnder, W. D.; Claridge, D. E.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on the effort to develop load-forecasting procedures for the Texas A&M University System (TAMUS). Such procedures are being investigated to determine if the TAMUS can benefit from the pending deregulation ...

  3. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    , Energy Meteorology Group, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany, elke.lorenz@uni-oldenburg.de + UniversityQUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Schneider° * University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory

  4. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  5. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fritsch, Roger Erwin

    1997-01-01

    Daily Standard & Poor's 500 stock index cash and futures prices are studies in a cointegration framework using Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. To account for the time varying relationship(basis) between the two ...

  8. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01

    Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline.of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. Energy Journal 16 (Modeling Forum. 2003. Natural Gas, Fuel Diversity and North

  9. A model for forecasting future air travel demand on the North Atlantic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taneja, Nawal K.

    1971-01-01

    Introduction: One of the key problems in the analysis and planning of any transport properties and facilities is estimating the future volume of traffic that may be expected to use these properties and facilities. Estimates ...

  10. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  11. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  13. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  14. DOE Announces Webinars on the Buildings of the Future Research...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    (in Buildings): Towards the Energy System of the Future - Andy Walker, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Forecasting Building Energy Demands from Very Dense Cities - Jorge...

  15. Preliminary constraint and forecasted future limits on duration of reionization from EDGES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rhoads, James

    -to-digital conversion and storage unit. The design of the system features several novel elements. The antenna is a "fat glitches and spurious instrumental signals in the measured sky spectrum. Analog-to-digital conversion

  16. An Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Gary S.

    are important for predicting pollutants regulated by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NAAQS pollutants, include CO, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, and SO2, are considered deleterious to public health and airAn Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems 1

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental InformationENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  18. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  19. Concept for Management of the Future Electricity System (Smart...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Concept for Management of the Future Electricity System (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Concept for Management of the Future Electricity System...

  20. Orphan drugs : future viability of current forecasting models, in light of impending changes to influential market factors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gottlieb, Joshua

    2011-01-01

    Interviews were conducted to establish a baseline for how orphan drug forecasting is currently undertaken by financial market and industry analysts with the intention of understanding the variables typically accounted for ...

  1. Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

    2011-10-21

    frequency. We find that turning the digital filter on in these two sets of experiments leads to a major improvement of the analyses. In the experiments with randomly placed observations, turning the digital fil- ter on degrades the analysis in the Tropics... are carried out with an implementation of the Local En- semble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both...

  2. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  3. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  4. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  5. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  6. Future Breathing System Requirements for Clean Diesel Engines...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Breathing System Requirements for Clean Diesel Engines Future Breathing System Requirements for Clean Diesel Engines Poster presentation at the 2007 Diesel Engine-Efficiency &...

  7. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  8. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  9. Data-driven spectral decomposition and forecasting of ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    We develop a framework for dimension reduction, mode decomposition, and nonparametric forecasting of data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. This framework is based on a representation of the Koopman group of unitary operators in a smooth orthonormal basis of the L2 space of the dynamical system, acquired from time-ordered data through the diffusion maps algorithm. Using this representation, we compute Koopman eigenfunctions through a regularized advection-diffusion operator, and employ these eigenfunctions in dimension reduction maps with projectible dynamics and high smoothness for the given observation modality. In systems with pure point spectra, we construct a decomposition of the generator of the Koopman group into mutually commuting vector fields, which we reconstruct in data space through a representation of the pushforward map in the Koopman eigenfunction basis. We also use a special property of this basis, namely that the basis elements evolve as simple harmonic oscillators, to build nonparamet...

  10. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Energy Meteorology Group, 26111 Oldenburg, GermanyH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systemsFORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann

  11. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  12. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  13. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  14. Advanced Diesel Common Rail Injection System for Future Emission...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    More Documents & Publications Injection System and Engine Strategies for Advanced Emission Standards SCR Technologies for NOx Reduction Powertrain Trends and Future...

  15. Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud Forecasts at Airports

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud authorities with accurate forecasts of fog and cloud ceiling. A specific event, which is called a low with the prediction of infrequent events like fog and the life cycles of low clouds. At Paris' Charles de Gaulle (Cd

  16. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  17. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  18. NREL: Transportation Research - Future Automotive Systems Technology

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTSWorking With UsSimulator Future Automotive

  19. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  20. Security engineering for embedded systems the SecFutur vision

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Security engineering for embedded systems ­ the SecFutur vision [Vision Paper] Sigrid Gürgens in the development of embedded systems. However, strongly interconnected em- bedded systems play vital roles in many for embedded systems is a discipline that currently attracts more interest. This paper presents the vision

  1. Environmental screening of future gasoline additives : computational tools to estimate chemical partitioning and forecast widespread groundwater contamination

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arey, J. Samuel (Jeremy Samuel), 1975-

    2004-01-01

    (cont.) application of Raoult's law for the same set of systems. An approach was developed which relates the empirical LSER solute polarity parameter, pi2Ĥ, to two more fundamental quantities: a polarizability term and a ...

  2. Concepts studies for future intracity air transportation systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joint DOT-NASA Civil Aviation Research and Development Policy Study.; United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Flight Transportation Laboratory

    1970-01-01

    Summary: This report is concerned with describing the possible application of future air transportation systems within urban areas of the United States. The planning horizon extends to 1995 and the report focuses on the ...

  3. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  4. The Future of the Andrew File System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-04-25

    The talk will discuss the ten operational capabilities that have made AFS unique in the distributed file system space and how these capabilities are being expanded upon to meet the needs of the 21st century. Derrick Brashear and Jeffrey Altman will present a technical road map of new features and technical innovations that are under development by the OpenAFS community and Your File System, Inc. funded by a U.S. Department of Energy Small Business Innovative Research grant. The talk will end with a comparison of AFS to its modern days competitors.

  5. DESIGNING EFFICIENT MEMORY FOR FUTURE COMPUTING SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balasubramonian, Rajeev

    , limited pin counts, increasing heterogeneity and complexity, and the diminished importance of cost main memory system with the following innovative features: (i) overfetch-aware re-organized chips, (ii) low-cost silicon photonic memory channels, (iii) largely autonomous memory modules with a packet

  6. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  7. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  8. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  9. A View on Future Building System Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wetter, Michael

    2011-04-01

    This chapter presents what a future environment for building system modeling and simulation may look like. As buildings continue to require increased performance and better comfort, their energy and control systems are becoming more integrated and complex. We therefore focus in this chapter on the modeling, simulation and analysis of building energy and control systems. Such systems can be classified as heterogeneous systems because they involve multiple domains, such as thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, electrical systems, control systems and communication systems. Also, they typically involve multiple temporal and spatial scales, and their evolution can be described by coupled differential equations, discrete equations and events. Modeling and simulating such systems requires a higher level of abstraction and modularisation to manage the increased complexity compared to what is used in today's building simulation programs. Therefore, the trend towards more integrated building systems is likely to be a driving force for changing the status quo of today's building simulation programs. Thischapter discusses evolving modeling requirements and outlines a path toward a future environment for modeling and simulation of heterogeneous building systems.A range of topics that would require many additional pages of discussion has been omitted. Examples include computational fluid dynamics for air and particle flow in and around buildings, people movement, daylight simulation, uncertainty propagation and optimisation methods for building design and controls. For different discussions and perspectives on the future of building modeling and simulation, we refer to Sahlin (2000), Augenbroe (2001) and Malkawi and Augenbroe (2004).

  10. Transportation Energy Futures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sperling, Daniel

    1989-01-01

    s values, forecasts of future energy prices and politicalYergin, D. , eds. 1979. Energy Future: Report of the Energy02, Sacramento, Calif. ENERGY FUTURES 103. Ullman, T. L. ,

  11. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  12. Power Systems Engineering Research Center Renewable Electricity Futures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Veen, Barry D.

    Power Systems Engineering Research Center Renewable Electricity Futures Trieu Mai Electricity of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the contiguous United States renewable electricity generation levels: from 30% up to 90% (focusing on 80%) of all U.S. electricity

  13. Ris Energy Report 7 Future low carbon energy systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risø Energy Report 7 Future low carbon energy systems Reprint of summary and recommendations Risø-R-1651(EN) October 2008 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen #12;Risø Energy Report 7 Preface This Risø Energy Report, the seventh of a series that began in 2002, takes as its point

  14. INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DATA COLLECTION EXISTING SYSTEM AND PROPOSED FUTURE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DATA COLLECTION IN CANADA: EXISTING SYSTEM AND PROPOSED FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. Parminder S. Sandhu Paul Willis October 1994 #12;Industrial Energy Data Collection in Canada: Existing. INTRODUCTION 1 3. NEED FOR INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DATA COLLECTION 2 PART 1 EVALUATION OF EXISTING DATA COLLECTION

  15. Natural Systems & Climate Change: Strategies for Our Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Natural Systems & Climate Change: Strategies for Our Future May 20,2013 #12;On the cover: Pendersen Ken Alex, Senior Policy Advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown and Director of the Office of Planning Collins, Collins Pine Company Joe Morris, Founder, Morris Grassfed Beef Misha Sarkovich, Sacramento

  16. Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the times and magnitudes of future earthquakes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Developing stress-monitoring sites using cross-hole seismology to stress-forecast the times 2000 Abstract A new understanding of rockmass deformation suggests that changing stress in the crust almost all rocks in the crust. These stress-aligned micro cracks cause the widely observed splitting

  17. Evaluating Future Standards and Codes with a Focus on High Penetration Photovoltaic (HPPV) System Deployment (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coddington, M.; Kroposki, B.; Basso, T.; Lynn, K.

    2010-12-01

    Poster displaying solutions for evaluating future standards and codes for high penetration photovoltaic (HPPV) systems.

  18. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  19. Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

    2010-06-27

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

  20. Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

    2010-03-15

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

  1. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  2. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  3. Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoeoek, Mikael; Li, Junchen; Johansson, Kersti; Snowden, Simon

    2012-03-15

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid 'oil boom'-development-i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events-their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  4. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  5. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  6. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  7. Middle Eastern power systems; Present and future developments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-06-01

    Middle Eastern Power systems have evolved independently of each other over many decades. The region covers a wide geographical area of over 4 million square kilometers with an estimated population in 1990 of over 120 million people. This paper discusses the present status and future power system developments in the Middle East with emphasis on the Mashrequ Arab Countries (MAC). MAC consists of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Interconnections within MAC and possible extensions to Turkey, Europe, and Central Africa are discussed. A common characteristic of the MAC power systems is that they are all operated by government or semi-government bodies. The energy resources in the region are varied. Countries such as Iraq, Egypt, and Syria have significant hydro power resources. On the other hand, the GCC countries and Iraq have abundant fossil fuel reserves.

  8. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  9. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  10. Future Directions in Control, Dynamics, and Systems: Overview, Grand Challenges, and New Courses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murray, Richard M.

    Future Directions in Control, Dynamics, and Systems: Overview, Grand Challenges, and New Courses and recommendations of a recent panel on Future Di- rections in Control, Dynamics, and Systems, sponsored by the US on Future Directions in Control and Dynamical Systems was formed to prepare a report to provide a renewed

  11. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative approaches could include simulation of climate over the 10,000-year period; however, this modeling extrapolation is well beyond the bounds of current scientific practice and would not provide results with better confidence. A corroborative alternative approach may be found in ''Future Climate Analysis-10,000 Years to 1,000,000 Years After Present'' (Sharpe 2003 [DIRS 161591]). The current revision of this report is prepared in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654]).

  12. Accomplishments and future perspective of coastal ocean observing systems Coastal oceans are the most densely urbanized regions on the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    are the most densely urbanized regions on the planet with populations growing at rapid rate. In the near future as communities increasingly rely on the coastal ocean to provide additional sources of energy (wind, waves, oil, our ability to map and forecast the coastal ocean remains low. While certain areas are difficult

  13. A forecast-driven tactical planning model for a serial manufacturing system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chhaochhria, Pallav

    We examine tactical planning for a serial manufacturing system that produces a product family with many process steps and low volumes. The system is subject to uncertainty in demand, in the supply of raw materials, and in ...

  14. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  15. Promising future energy storage systems: Nanomaterial based systems, Zn-air and electromechanical batteries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koopman, R.; Richardson, J.

    1993-10-01

    Future energy storage systems will require longer shelf life, higher duty cycles, higher efficiency, higher energy and power densities, and be fabricated in an environmentally conscious process. This paper describes several possible future systems which have the potential of providing stored energy for future electric and hybrid vehicles. Three of the systems have their origin in the control of material structure at the molecular level and the subsequent nanoengineering into useful device and components: aerocapacitors, nanostructure multilayer capacitors, and the lithium ion battery. The zinc-air battery is a high energy density battery which can provide vehicles with long range (400 km in autos) and be rapidly refueled with a slurry of zinc particles and electrolyte. The electromechanical battery is a battery-sized module containing a high-speed rotor integrated with an iron-less generator mounted on magnetic bearings and housed in an evacuated chamber.

  16. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  17. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B, Section 4.1).

  18. Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brest, Université de

    renewable energy resources are random and weather/climatic conditions-dependant. In this challenging context technical and economical constraints. Index Terms--Hybrid energy systems, renewable power generation-friendly nature (i.e. renewable energies). Although renewable energy penetration in electricity is expected

  19. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  20. System-of-Systems Framework for the Future Hydrogen-Based Transportation Economy: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duffy, M.; Sandor, D.

    2008-06-01

    From a supply chain view, this paper traces the flow of transportation fuels through required systems and addresses the current petroleum-based economy, DOE's vision for a future hydrogen-based transportation economy, and the challenges of a massive market and infrastructure transformation.

  1. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    DOCU[viENTS SECTION DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS STUDY GROUPIMPLICATIONS OF UTILIZING DISTRIBUTED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES .to implement a distributed energy future. RECENT TRENDS IN

  2. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    -Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms. G. Kariniotakis* , D. Mayer, J. Moussafir, R. Chevallaz-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches

  3. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  4. Advanced Diesel Common Rail Injection System for Future Emission Legislation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    2004 Diesel Engine Emissions Reduction (DEER) Conference Presentation: Robert Bosch GMBH Common Rail System Engineering for PC Diesel Systems

  5. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  6. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    OF UTILIZING DISTRIBUTED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES . . . . . . .DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS I~N CALIF RNIA/S FUTURE: UU-6831Ur'l1E:i\\i-fS SECTION DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS STUDY GROUP

  7. Water Requirements for Future Energy production in California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES. Water Demand Energy Suppon future forecasts of of Water energy predicted energy aunder these PHASE II: WATER ENERGY REQUIREMENTS FOR FUTURE

  8. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  9. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  10. Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergy A plug-inPPLforLDRD Report11, SolarMat 4" | Department ofMotors |FurnacesFuture

  11. Energy Mobility Network : system design, interfaces, and future interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheung, Natalie Wen Yua

    2011-01-01

    The Energy Mobility Network is a mobile, networked energy production, consumption and sharing system that is designed to motivate users to be more aware of their energy consumption. In particular, the system provides a ...

  12. u Computer Systems Research: Past and Future u Butler Lampson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arpaci-Dusseau, Remzi

    , was not made by computer systems researchers. In the light of all this experience, I will talk about the topics) Flaky for Ole/COM #12;888 The Failure of Systems Research u We didn't invent the Web u Why not? Too lighting, occlusion, noise, etc. ­ Recognizing speech and objects ­ In real time u Self-organizing systems

  13. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  14. On the Future of Computer Algebra Systems at the Threshold of 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Watt, Stephen M.

    On the Future of Computer Algebra Systems at the Threshold of 2010 Stephen M. Watt University in which software systems for computer algebra could be improved if designed from scratch today rather than that would be difficult to address by incremental evolution of existing systems. Computer algebra systems

  15. Present performance & future directions in two-photon addressed volumetric optical disk storage systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Esener, Sadik C.

    Present performance & future directions in two-photon addressed volumetric optical disk storage data storage is presented and future directions discussed. Influence of numerical aperture in a 3-D multi-layer optical data storage system is analyzed. Keywords: volumetric data storage, multi-layer data

  16. Development of Materials for Future Energy Systems using Combinatorial Synthesis of Thin Film Materials

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    production/storage/conversion of energy carriers are necessary to improve existing and enable future energyDevelopment of Materials for Future Energy Systems using Combinatorial Synthesis of Thin Film Professor Alfred Ludwig Institute for Materials, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum, Germany THE RESNICK

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  19. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  20. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  1. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  2. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  3. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    systems) might wish to do when faced with sequences of rising and falling tariff prices on a daily basis. This needs to encompass preset time of day, real time only time of...

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  5. Overview of the use of the PCI bus in present and future high energy physics data acquisition systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Praag, A; Matheys, J P; Van de Vyvre, P; Anguelov, T; Georgiev, G; Piperov, S; Vankov, I; Gillot, D; Guglielmi, A M; Orel, O; Sytin, A N

    1995-01-01

    Overview of the use of the PCI bus in present and future high energy physics data acquisition systems

  6. INVITED REVIEW Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    INVITED REVIEW Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future Published electronically: 2 May 2014 Background Earth system models describe the physical, chemical are to overcome these and other shortcomings. Key words: Plant functional types, PFT, Earth system model, ESM

  7. Optimal Use of Organic Waste in Future Energy Systems the Danish case

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal Use of Organic Waste in Future Energy Systems ­ the Danish case Marie Münster*, Henrik Lund a comparative energy system analysis of different technologies utilizing organic waste for heat, power and fuel to assess energy technologies together with the energy systems they are part of and influence. The energy

  8. Future nano- and micro-systems using nanobonding technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Howlader, Matiar M. R. E-mail: jamal@mcmaster.ca; Deen, M. Jamal E-mail: jamal@mcmaster.ca

    2014-03-31

    In this paper, some of the recent achievements in surface-activation-based nanobonding technology are described. This bonding technology allows for the combination of electronic, photonic, fluidic and mechanical functionalities into small form-factor systems for emerging applications in health diagnostics and screening, for example. These nanobonding technologies provide void-free, strong, and nanoscale bonding at room temperature or at low temperatures (<200 °C), and they do not require chemicals, adhesives, or high external pressure. The interfaces of the nanobonded materials in ultra-high vacuum and in air correspond to the covalent bonds, and hydrogen and hydroxyl bonds, respectively, which gives rise to excellent bonding properties. Further, these nanobonding technologies are well-suited for the development of low-cost, high-performance miniaturized systems such as biophotonic imaging systems.

  9. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  10. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  11. Driving the Future Argonne's vehicle systems reseArch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    of alternative fuels and advanced technologies. Heating and air conditioning systems have significant impacts is equipped to evaluate vehicles and components under extreme hot and cold temperature conditions (from 20°F to 95°F). This capability enables researchers to: Validate performance targets for battery packs

  12. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  13. RETHINKING THE FUTURE GRID: INTEGRATED NUCLEAR-RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S.M. Bragg-Sitton; R. Boardman

    2014-12-01

    The 2013 electricity generation mix in the United States consisted of ~13% renewables (hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal), 19% nuclear, 27% natural gas, and 39% coal. In the 2011 State of the Union Address, President Obama set a clean energy goal for the nation: “By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources. Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas. To meet this goal we will need them all.” The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Offices of Nuclear Energy (NE) and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recognize that “all of the above” means that we are called to best utilize all available clean energy sources. To meet the stated environmental goals for electricity generation and for the broader energy sector, there is a need to transform the energy infrastructure of the U.S. and elsewhere. New energy systems must be capable of significantly reducing environmental impacts in an efficient and economically viable manner while utilizing both hydrocarbon resources and clean energy generation sources. The U.S. DOE is supporting research and development that could lead to more efficient utilization of clean energy generation sources, including renewable and nuclear options, to meet both grid demand and thermal energy needs in the industrial sector. A concept being advanced by the DOE-NE and DOE-EERE is tighter coupling of nuclear and renewable energy sources in a manner that better optimizes energy use for the combined electricity, industrial manufacturing, and the transportation sectors. This integration concept has been referred to as a “hybrid system” that is capable of apportioning thermal and electrical energy to first meet the grid demand (with appropriate power conversion systems), then utilizing excess thermal and, in some cases, electrical energy to drive a process that results in an additional product. For the purposes of the present work, the hybrid system would integrate two or more energy resources to generate two or more products, one of which must be an energy commodity, such as electricity or transportation fuel. Subsystems would be integrated ‘‘behind’’ the electrical transmission bus and would be comprised of two or more energy conversion subsystems that have traditionally been separate or isolated. Energy flows would be dynamically apportioned as necessary to meet grid demand via a single, highly responsive connection to the grid that provides dispatchable electricity while capital-intensive generation assets operate at full capacity. Candidate region-specific hybrid energy systems selected for further study and figures of merit that will be used to assess system performance will be presented.

  14. Rethinking the Future Grid: Integrated Nuclear Renewable Energy Systems: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bragg-Sitton, S. M.; Boardman, R.; Ruth, M.; Zinaman, O.; Forsberg, C.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. DOE is supporting research and development that could lead to more efficient utilization of clean energy generation sources, including renewable and nuclear options, to meet both grid demand and thermal energy needs in the industrial sector. One concept under consideration by the DOE-NE and DOE-EERE is tighter coupling of nuclear and renewable energy sources in a manner that better optimizes energy use for the combined electricity, industrial manufacturing, and transportation sectors. This integration concept has been referred to as a 'hybrid system' that is capable of apportioning thermal and electrical energy to first meet the grid demand (with appropriate power conversion systems), then utilizing excess thermal and, in some cases, electrical energy to drive a process that results in an additional product.

  15. Exploring Machine Learning Techniques For Dynamic Modeling on Future Exascale Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Song, Shuaiwen; Tallent, Nathan R.; Vishnu, Abhinav

    2013-09-23

    Future exascale systems must be optimized for both power and performance at scale in order to achieve DOE’s goal of a sustained petaflop within 20 Megawatts by 2022 [1]. Massive parallelism of the future systems combined with complex memory hierarchies will form a barrier to efficient application and architecture design. These challenges are exacerbated with emerging complex architectures such as GPGPUs and Intel Xeon Phi as parallelism increases orders of magnitude and system power consumption can easily triple or quadruple. Therefore, we need techniques that can reduce the search space for optimization, isolate power-performance bottlenecks, identify root causes for software/hardware inefficiency, and effectively direct runtime scheduling.

  16. pahwa@ksu.edu Holonic Multi-agent Control of Power Distribution Systems of the Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singh, Gurdip

    SUMMARY Power distribution systems (PDS) of the future will have homes with smart meters to monitor energy consumption, on-site grid-connected solar or wind generation, battery storage, and plug-in vehicles. The feeders will have advanced power electronic switching devices to control the system, sensors at strategic

  17. Preventing Future Blackouts by Means of Enhanced Electric Power Systems Control: From

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Preventing Future Blackouts by Means of Enhanced Electric Power Systems Control: From Complexity that re- semble the blackout of August 2003. Also, the potential for efficient use of the resources during--Advanced control, complex large-scale dynamical systems, electric power blackouts, electricity restructuring

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  19. Designing the Future Energy System for Cleaner Air: A National Laboratory Perspective 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cale, J.

    2014-01-01

    of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. James Cale, Ph.D., Group Manager Distributed Energy Systems Integration (DESI) Power Systems Engineering Center... National Renewable Energy Laboratory Designing the Future Energy System for Cleaner Air: A National Laboratory Perspective ESL-KT-14-11-23 CATEE 2014: Clean Air Through Efficiency Conference, Dallas, Texas Nov. 18-20 2DOE and National Laboratories 2...

  20. Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2015-01-01

    Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

  1. Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Darghouth, Naim; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

    2013-01-09

    This scoping study investigates the impact of, and interactions among, three key sources of uncertainty in the future value of bill savings from customer-sited PV, focusing in particular on residential customers. These three sources of uncertainty are: changes to electricity market conditions that would affect retail electricity prices, changes to the types of retail rate structures available to residential customers with PV, and shifts away from standard net-metering toward other compensation mechanisms for residential PV. We investigate the impact of a range of electricity market scenarios on retail electricity prices and rate structures, and the resulting effects on the value of bill savings from PV. The scenarios include various levels of renewable and solar energy deployment, high and low natural gas prices, the possible introduction of carbon pricing, and greater or lesser reliance on utility-scale storage and demand response. We examine the bill savings from PV with time-invariant, flat residential retail rates, as well as with time-varying retail rates, including time-of-use (TOU) rates and real-time pricing (RTP). In addition, we explore a flat rate with increasing-block pricing (IBP). We evaluate the bill savings from PV with net metering, as currently allowed in many states, as well as scenarios with hourly netting, a partial form of net metering. This scoping study is the first known effort to evaluate these types of interactions in a reasonably comprehensive fashion, though by no means have we considered every possible change to electricity market conditions, retail rate structures, or PV compensation mechanisms. It focuses solely on the private value of bill savings for residential PV and does not seek to quantify the broader social or economic cost or value of solar electricity. Our analysis applies assumptions based loosely on California’s electricity market in a future year (2030); however, it is neither intended to forecast California’s future market, nor are our conclusions intended to have implications specific only to the California market. That said, some of the findings are unique to our underlying assumptions, as described further within the main body of the report, along with other key limitations.

  2. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  3. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  4. Memories of the future: how are the narratives of possible future(s) constructed by urban planning systems in France and Scotland? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McGlone, Kathryn

    2013-07-01

    This thesis is an examination of how futures thinking has been deployed by the respective planning authorities in the Nord Pas de Calais Region and Glasgow City Region. My intention was to examine the experience of ...

  5. Analyzing water supply in future energy systems using the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-FR)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Analyzing water supply in future energy systems using the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM Mathematics, MINES ParisTech Sophia Antipolis, France ABSTRACT Even though policies related to water is required to maintain water supplies while water is essential to produce energy. However, the models

  6. Energy Efficient Phase Change Memory Based Main Memory for Future High Performance Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Conte, Thomas M.

    time of a slow PCM based memory and significant energy reductions against a DDR3 commodity DRAM memoryEnergy Efficient Phase Change Memory Based Main Memory for Future High Performance Systems Abstract the point of view of scaling and energy consumption. PCM-only memories suffer from latency issues, high

  7. Ris Energy Report 8 The intelligent energy system infrastructure for the future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risø Energy Report 8 The intelligent energy system infrastructure for the future Reprint Petersen #12;Risø Energy Report 5 Renewable energy for power and transport Global energy policy today is dominated by three concerns: security of supply, climate change, and energy for development and poverty

  8. Ris Energy Report 8 The intelligent energy system infrastructure for the future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risø Energy Report 8 The intelligent energy system infrastructure for the future Risø-R-1695(EN) September 2009 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen #12;Risø Energy Report 8 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy Technical University

  9. Preparing the U.S. Foundation for Future Electric Energy Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    large-scale penetration of Renewable and Alternative Energy technologies Maintain U.S. Electric PowerPreparing the U.S. Foundation for Future Electric Energy Systems: A Strong Power and Energy Engineering Workforce U.S. Power and Energy Engineering Workforce Collaborative Prepared by the Management

  10. Natural Systems & Climate Change: Strategies for Our Future May 20, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Natural Systems & Climate Change: Strategies for Our Future May 20, 2013 Tsakopoulos Library of the Office of Planning and Research Chuck Bonham, Director, California Department of Fish and Wildlife Fadtke, Delta Conservancy Terry Collins, Collins Pine Company Joe Morris, Founder, Morris Grassfed Beef

  11. Future Generation Computer Systems 25 (2009) 599616 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Melbourne, University of

    2009-01-01

    Future Generation Computer Systems 25 (2009) 599­616 Contents lists available at Science that computing will one day be the 5th utility (after water, electricity, gas, and telephony). This computing of harnessing `Storage Clouds' for high performance content delivery. Finally, we conclude with the need

  12. Delivering the Green: The Future of California's Freight Transportation System Summary and Reading List

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Davis, University of

    Delivering the Green: The Future of California's Freight Transportation System Summary and Reading List California's freight sector is a critical part of California's economic engine, generating. California's freight sector, including trucks, trains, and ships is also the largest contributor to ozone

  13. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    are required to provide reliable power to customers. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future in their territory. Therefore, utilities are very concerned about distribution planning. They would like to use

  14. Abstract--In the UK and also worldwide it is certain that future transmission systems will operate with significantly larger

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taylor, Gary

    and offshore. Therefore, in order to operate and control future transmission systems securely and efficiently such generation to a power system. Traditional operation and control methodologies that are currently employed1 Abstract-- In the UK and also worldwide it is certain that future transmission systems

  15. Feasibility of Using VLS-PV Systems in the Future Egyptian Cities: Case Study Suez Canal Region 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    El Sudany, M. M.; Rashed, A.; Sheta, S.

    2010-01-01

    and architectural design strategy for the recent and future Egyptian cities, to be more adapted to use renewable energy integrated systems....

  16. Options Impacting the Electric System of the Future (ESF); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cory, Karlynn

    2015-08-10

    As utilities are faced with adapting to new technologies, technology and policy due diligence are necessary to ensure the development of a future grid that brings greater value to utilities and their consumers. This presentation explores the different kinds of future directions the power industry could consider to create, discussing key components necessary for success. It will also discuss the practical application and possible strategies for utilities and innovators to implement smart technologies that will enable an ultimate ‘intelligent’ grid capable of two-way communication, interoperability, and greater efficiency and system resiliency.

  17. Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lenstra, Arjen K.

    ENAC/ Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS for population safety and! Computational program: Routing System MINERVE Run-off model Infiltration model

  18. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  19. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  20. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  1. The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use The Role Of IC Engines In Future Energy Use Reviews future market trends and forecasts, and future engine challenges and research focus...

  2. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    technologies to satisfy future energy demands. On anotheraffecting the choice of future energy technologies can noabout the character of future energy alternatives (Schwartz,

  3. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    ASSESSMENTS VI. ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FUTURES FOR CALIFORNIA--prospects for alternative energy futures based on renewablej CHAPTER VI ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FUTURES FOR CALIFORNIA--

  4. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  5. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  6. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  7. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  8. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  9. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  10. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  11. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  12. For the MTS (Marine Transportation System Research & Technology) Conference The CCOM Chart-of-the-Future Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ware, Colin

    For the MTS (Marine Transportation System Research & Technology) Conference The CCOM Chart-of-the-Future Project: Maximizing Mariner Effectiveness through Fusion of Marine & Visualization Technologies Matthew D-of-the-Future Project is to develop a marine decision support system that takes full advantage of existing and emerging

  13. An overview of RDF processing systems: Current status, design features, and future trends

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ohlsson, O.O. ); Walter, D.K. . Waste Material Management Div.); Goodman, B.J. )

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the recent history of refuse-derived fuel (RDF) processing facilities in the United States. The current status of these facilities, including environmental, institutional, and economic considerations is discussed. The unit operations used to produce a desired RDF product are described, and the future potential of RDF processing systems is evaluated. Current research sponsored by the US Department of Energy is also presented. 6 refs., 3 figs., 8 tabs.

  14. Can change prediction help prioritise redesign work in future engineering systems?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wynn, David C.; Caldwell, Nicholas H. M.; Clarkson, P. John

    and Monte Carlo simulation to predict change in construction project", Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, IEEE, 2008, Vol.2, pp 670-675. Dr. David C. Wynn Senior Research Associate Engineering... INTERNATIONAL DESIGN CONFERENCE - DESIGN 2010 Dubrovnik - Croatia, May 17 - 20, 2010. CAN CHANGE PREDICTION HELP PRIORITISE REDESIGN WORK IN FUTURE ENGINEERING SYSTEMS? D. C. Wynn, N. H. M. Caldwell and P. J. Clarkson Keywords: engineering change...

  15. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    System (REEPS 2.1) , developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), is a forecasting model

  16. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  17. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  20. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  1. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    the Firm . States of the Future and Energy Sources PercentTable XV-l States of the Future and Energy Sources o ,j ;jto assume that a future energy source, not yet available for

  2. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using

  3. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01

    the following:1. FAPRI3. AO S5. Univariate Time Series7. Composite 2. WASDE4. Futures Market6. Multivariate Time Series The characteristics of each of the aforementioned forecast techniques are explained within the appropriate chapter. Furthermore, it should...

  4. FireGrid: Forecasting Fire Dynamics to Lead the Emergency Response 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rein, Guillermo

    2007-06-19

    The predictions of future events has fascinated humanity since the beginning of history. This attraction has permeated into science and engineering, where several disciplines has emerged providing the capability to forecast ...

  5. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  6. The DOE Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) Project: Demonstration of dynamic information technology for the future power system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mittelstadt, W.A. [USDOE Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States); Krause, P.E.; Wilson, R.E. [USDOE Western Area Power Administration, Golden, CO (United States); Overholt, P.N. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States); Sobajic, D.J. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hauer, J.F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Rizy, D.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1996-07-01

    In 1989 the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) joined the US Department of Energy (DOE) in an assessment of longer-term research and development needs for future electric power system operation. The effort produced a progressively sharper vision of a future power system in which enhanced control and operation are the primary means for serving new customer demands, in an environment where increased competition, a wider range of services and vendors, and much narrower operating margins all contribute to increased system efficiencies and capacity. Technology and infrastructure for real time access to wide area dynamic information were identified as critical path elements in realizing that vision. In 1995 the DOE accordingly launched the Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) Project jointly with the two Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) to address these issues in a practical operating environment--the western North America power system. The Project draws upon many years of PMA effort and related collaboration among the western utilities, plus an expanding infrastructure that includes regionally involved contractors, universities, and National Laboratories plus linkages to the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The WAMS project also brings added focus and resources to the evolving Western System Dynamic Information Network, or WesDINet. This is a collective response of the Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC) member utilities to their shared needs for direct information about power system characteristics, model fidelity, and operational performance. The WAMS project is a key source of the technology and backbone communications needed to make WesDINet a well integrated, cost effective enterprise network demonstrating the role of dynamic information technology in the emerging utility environment.

  7. The DOE Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) Project -- Demonstration of dynamic information technology for the future power system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mittelstadt, W.A. [Bonneville Power Administration (United States); Hauer, J.F. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Krause, P.E.; Wilson, R.E. [Western Power Administration (United States); Overholt, P.N. [USDOE (United States); Rizy, D.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1995-12-31

    In 1989 the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the Western Power Administration (WAPA) joined the US Department of Energy (DOE) in an assessment of longer-term research and development needs for future electric power system operation. The effort produced a progressively sharper vision of a future power system in which enhanced control and operation are the primary means for serving new customer demands in an environment characterized by increased competition, a wider range of services and vendors, and much narrower operating margins. Technology and infrastructure for real time access to wide area dynamic information were identified as critical path elements in realizing that vision. In 1995 the DOE accordingly launched the Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS) Project jointly with the two Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) to address these issues in a practical operating environment the western North America power system. The Project draws upon many years of PMA effort and related collaboration among the western utilities, plus an expanding infrastructure that includes regionally involved contractors, universities, and National Laboratories plus linkages to the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

  8. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  9. Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we studyOptimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation

  10. Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Imperial College, London

    Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

  11. Abstract Microgrids are a new concept for future energy dis-tribution systems that enable renewable energy integration and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Emmanuel

    1 Abstract ­ Microgrids are a new concept for future energy dis- tribution systems that enable renewable energy integration and improved energy management capability. Microgrids consist of multiple power quality and power distribution reliability, microgrids need to operate in both grid

  12. Future Generation Computer Systems 29 (2013) 472487 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sakellariou, Rizos

    2013-01-01

    Future Generation Computer Systems 29 (2013) 472­487 Contents lists available at SciVerse Science or water [1]. For the underlying infrastructure this means that it has to deal with dynamic load changes

  13. Future Generation Computer Systems 29 (2013) 10121023 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Melbourne, University of

    2013-01-01

    Future Generation Computer Systems 29 (2013) 1012­1023 Contents lists available at SciVerse Science (e.g., water, electricity and gas). The three main services are provided by the Cloud computing ar

  14. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  15. Future Healthcare

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2010-12-15

    Patients want answers, not numbers. Evidence-based medicine must have numbers to generate answers. Therefore, analysis of numbers to provide answers is the Holy Grail of healthcare professionals and its future systems. ...

  16. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    Politics REFERENCES H VIII. DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK OUTCOME ANALYSIS ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES

  17. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  18. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  19. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  20. Long-Term Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems (II&C) Modernization Future Vision and Strategy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kenneth Thomas

    2012-02-01

    Life extension beyond 60 years for the U.S operating nuclear fleet requires that instrumentation and control (I&C) systems be upgraded to address aging and reliability concerns. It is impractical for the legacy systems based on 1970's vintage technology operate over this extended time period. Indeed, utilities have successfully engaged in such replacements when dictated by these operational concerns. However, the replacements have been approached in a like-for-like manner, meaning that they do not take advantage of the inherent capabilities of digital technology to improve business functions. And so, the improvement in I&C system performance has not translated to bottom-line performance improvement for the fleet. Therefore, wide-scale modernization of the legacy I&C systems could prove to be cost-prohibitive unless the technology is implemented in a manner to enable significant business innovation as a means of off-setting the cost of upgrades. A Future Vision of a transformed nuclear plant operating model based on an integrated digital environment has been developed as part of the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) research pathway, under the Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program. This is a research and development program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), performed in close collaboration with the nuclear utility industry, to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. DOE's program focus is on longer-term and higher-risk/reward research that contributes to the national policy objectives of energy security and environmental security . The Advanced II&C research pathway is being conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The Future Vision is based on a digital architecture that encompasses all aspects of plant operations and support, integrating plant systems, plant work processes, and plant workers in a seamless digital environment to enhance nuclear safety, increase productivity, and improve overall plant performance. The long-term goal is to transform the operating model of the nuclear power plants (NPP)s from one that is highly reliant on a large staff performing mostly manual activities to an operating model based on highly integrated technology with a smaller staff. This digital transformation is critical to addressing an array of issues facing the plants, including aging of legacy analog systems, potential shortage of technical workers, ever-increasing expectations for nuclear safety improvement, and relentless pressure to reduce cost. The Future Vision is based on research is being conducted in the following major areas of plant function: (1) Highly integrated control rooms; (2) Highly automated plant; (3) Integrated operations; (4) Human performance improvement for field workers; and (5) Outage safety and efficiency. Pilot projects will be conducted in each of these areas as the means for industry to collectively integrate these new technologies into nuclear plant work activities. The pilot projects introduce new digital technologies into the nuclear plant operating environment at host operating plants to demonstrate and validate them for production usage. In turn, the pilot project technologies serve as the stepping stones to the eventual seamless digital environment as described in the Future Vision.

  1. Long-Term Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems (II&C) Modernization Future Vision and Strategy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kenneth Thomas; Bruce Hallbert

    2013-02-01

    Life extension beyond 60 years for the U.S operating nuclear fleet requires that instrumentation and control (I&C) systems be upgraded to address aging and reliability concerns. It is impractical for the legacy systems based on 1970’s vintage technology operate over this extended time period. Indeed, utilities have successfully engaged in such replacements when dictated by these operational concerns. However, the replacements have been approached in a like-for-like manner, meaning that they do not take advantage of the inherent capabilities of digital technology to improve business functions. And so, the improvement in I&C system performance has not translated to bottom-line performance improvement for the fleet. Therefore, wide-scale modernization of the legacy I&C systems could prove to be cost-prohibitive unless the technology is implemented in a manner to enable significant business innovation as a means of off-setting the cost of upgrades. A Future Vision of a transformed nuclear plant operating model based on an integrated digital environment has been developed as part of the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) research pathway, under the Light Water Reactor (LWR) Sustainability Program. This is a research and development program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), performed in close collaboration with the nuclear utility industry, to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. DOE’s program focus is on longer-term and higher-risk/reward research that contributes to the national policy objectives of energy security and environmental security . The Advanced II&C research pathway is being conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The Future Vision is based on a digital architecture that encompasses all aspects of plant operations and support, integrating plant systems, plant work processes, and plant workers in a seamless digital environment to enhance nuclear safety, increase productivity, and improve overall plant performance. The long-term goal is to transform the operating model of the nuclear power plants (NPP)s from one that is highly reliant on a large staff performing mostly manual activities to an operating model based on highly integrated technology with a smaller staff. This digital transformation is critical to addressing an array of issues facing the plants, including aging of legacy analog systems, potential shortage of technical workers, ever-increasing expectations for nuclear safety improvement, and relentless pressure to reduce cost. The Future Vision is based on research is being conducted in the following major areas of plant function: 1. Highly integrated control rooms 2. Highly automated plant 3. Integrated operations 4. Human performance improvement for field workers 5. Outage safety and efficiency. Pilot projects will be conducted in each of these areas as the means for industry to collectively integrate these new technologies into nuclear plant work activities. The pilot projects introduce new digital technologies into the nuclear plant operating environment at host operating plants to demonstrate and validate them for production usage. In turn, the pilot project technologies serve as the stepping stones to the eventual seamless digital environment as described in the Future Vision.

  2. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  3. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  4. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  5. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff; Schneider, Thomas; Brinkman, Gregory; Denholm, Paul

    2012-06-15

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

  6. PNNL Future Power Grid Initiative-developed GridOPTICS Software System (GOSS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-11-03

    The power grid is changing and evolving. One aspect of this change is the growing use of smart meters and other devices, which are producing large volumes of useful data. However, in many cases, the data can’t be translated quickly into actionable guidance to improve grid performance. There's a need for innovative tools. The GridOPTICS(TM) Software System, or GOSS, developed through PNNL's Future Power Grid Initiative, is open source and became publicly available in spring 2014. The value of this middleware is that it easily integrates grid applications with sources of data and facilitates communication between them. Such a capability provides a foundation for developing a range of applications to improve grid management.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  8. Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darghouth, Naim

    2014-01-01

    the amount of future renewable energy (RE) deployment is notFuture Electricity Market Conditions Prepared for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewablefuture changes. For example, higher penetrations of renewable energy

  9. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    logy as an energy alternative for the future. Some offor alternative scenarios for future pattern of energyfuture states of society must be established through the specification of alternative energy

  10. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  11. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center is Helping to Facilitate the Transition to a New Energy Future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-01-01

    The Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center (HTSC) at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) uses a systems engineering and integration approach to hydrogen research and development to help the United States make the transition to a new energy future - a future built on diverse and abundant domestic renewable resources and integrated hydrogen systems. Research focuses on renewable hydrogen production, delivery, and storage; fuel cells and fuel cell manufacturing; technology validation; safety, codes, and standards; analysis; education; and market transformation. Hydrogen can be used in fuel cells to power vehicles and to provide electricity and heat for homes and offices. This flexibility, combined with our increasing demand for energy, opens the door for hydrogen power systems. HTSC collaborates with DOE, other government agencies, industry, communities, universities, national laboratories, and other stakeholders to promote a clean and secure energy future.

  12. USC/ISI Technical Report ISI-TR-625, October 2006 1 Enabling Interoperability and Extensibility of Future SCADA Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    system devel- oped for oil and gas fields, the RTUs are usually places at production wells and injection the problem without waiting. The rigid design of cur- rent RTUs makes it hard to extend the SCADA from one and extensibility of future SCADA systems. Our work is based on the application of oil and gas field monitoring

  13. Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.; Schneider, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.

    2012-06-01

    The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

  14. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  15. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-04-01

    The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.

  16. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power

  17. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  18. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  19. Thermoelectric Power Generation System with Loop Thermosyphon in Future High Efficiency Hybrid Vehicles

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project discusses preliminary experimental results to find how thermoelectrics can be applied ot future hybrid vehicles and the optimum design of such equipment using heat pipes

  20. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Strategies (the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Strategies (analysis of future energy alternatives, and for this we we

  1. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  2. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  3. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  4. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O'Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  5. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  6. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  7. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  8. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  9. Future Grid: The Environment Future Grid Initiative White Paper

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Future Grid: The Environment Future Grid Initiative White Paper Power Systems Engineering Research Center Empowering Minds to Engineer the Future Electric Energy System #12;Future Grid: The Environment Prepared for the Project "The Future Grid to Enable Sustainable Energy Systems" Funded by the U

  10. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-01-01

    The Future of Electric Transmission in the United States.Environmental Impacts of Electric Transmission In order toTransmission R&D Planning Underwater application of electric

  11. The Future of Nature: How do the views of Nature...including the living systems of Earth... differ in McKibben's

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Future of Nature: How do the views of Nature...including the living systems of Earth... differ of human/Nature interaction, speculating about its future in 2050 (both books implicitly make into the future, while also speculating about `surprises'. Exploit the value of history in helping foresee

  12. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  13. Suitability of Agent Technology for Military Command and Control in the Future Combat System Environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Potok, TE

    2003-02-13

    The U.S. Army is faced with the challenge of dramatically improving its war fighting capability through advanced technologies. Any new technology must provide significant improvement over existing technologies, yet be reliable enough to provide a fielded system. The focus of this paper is to assess the novelty and maturity of agent technology for use in the Future Combat System (FCS). The FCS concept represents the U.S. Army's ''mounted'' form of the Objective Force. This concept of vehicles, communications, and weaponry is viewed as a ''system of systems'' which includes net-centric command and control (C{sup 2}) capabilities. This networked C{sup 2} is an important transformation from the historically centralized, or platform-based, C{sup 2} function since a centralized command architecture may become a decision-making and execution bottleneck, particularly as the pace of war accelerates. A mechanism to ensure an effective network-centric C{sup 2} capacity (combining intelligence gathering and analysis available at lower levels in the military hierarchy) is needed. Achieving a networked C{sup 2} capability will require breakthroughs in current software technology. Many have proposed the use of agent technology as a potential solution. Agents are an emerging technology, and it is not yet clear whether it is suitable for addressing the networked C{sup 2} challenge, particularly in satisfying battlespace scalability, mobility, and security expectations. We have developed a set of software requirements for FCS based on military requirements for this system. We have then evaluated these software requirements against current computer science technology. This analysis provides a set of limitations in the current technology when applied to the FCS challenge. Agent technology is compared against this set of limitations to provide a means of assessing the novelty of agent technology in an FCS environment. From this analysis we find that existing technologies will not likely be sufficient to meet the networked C{sup 2} requirements of FCS due to limitations in scalability, mobility, and security. Agent technology provides a number of advantages in these areas, mainly through much stronger messaging and coordination models. These models theoretically allow for significant improvements in many areas, including scalability, mobility, and security. However, the demonstration of such capabilities in an FCS environment does not currently exist, although a number of strong agent-based systems have been deployed in related areas. Additionally, there are challenges in FCS that neither current technology nor agent technology are particularly well suited, such as information fusion and decision support. In summary, we believe that agent technology has the capability to support most of the networked C{sup 2} requirements of FCS. However, we would recommend proof of principle experiments to verify the theoretical advantages of this technology in an FCS environment.

  14. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    cases only the paper industry is assumed to cogeneratein the future. In the paper industry, 56 percent of the ThisRefining, and Paper and Pulp Industries, FEA Contract CO-04-

  15. This article has been accepted for inclusion in a future issue of this journal. Content is final as presented, with the exception of pagination. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Egerstedt, Magnus

    systems. To overcome these challenges, it is envisioned that future, smart energy grids will be populated

  16. FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schubert, Wayne H.

    system using an efficient multigrid barotropic vorticity equation model (MBAR). Five perturbation classes Advisor Department Head ii #12;ABSTRACT OF THESIS FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO forecasts. These increases have been largely driven by improved numerical weather prediction models

  17. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  18. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nocedal, Jorge

    Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization M. Fisher J weather prediction centers to produce the initial conditions for 7- to 10-day weather fore- casts, with particular reference to the system in operation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 1

  19. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  20. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  1. Envisioning the Future of Computational Media: The Final Report of the Media Systems Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wardrip–Fruin, Noah; Mateas, Michael

    2014-01-01

    with the Mimesis System,” Computational Creativity (2012):scholarship both in computational systems and in the areapace with changes? What computational systems allow for real

  2. Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darghouth, Naim

    2014-01-01

    Margolis, R. , 2004. Are Photovoltaic Systems Worth More toeconomics of commercial photovoltaic systems in California.a grid-connected photovoltaic system. Renewable Energy 32,

  3. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  4. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  5. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  6. Convergence for the Smart Grid -On the technology opportunities for Future Cyber-Physical Energy Systems, invited paper at New Research Directions for Future Cyber-Physical Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Los Angeles, University of

    Convergence for the Smart Grid - On the technology opportunities for Future Cyber-Physical Energy Angeles, CA. 90095 http://winmec.ucla.edu Email:smartgrid@winmec.ucla.edu Convergence for the Smart Grid into what the Future / Smart Electric Grid should look like. For example the DOE has a vision for the Modern

  7. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Annamalai, H

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical western Pacific. On the training of post-doctoral scientists: the PI spent considerable amount of time and efforts in introducing the post-docs into climate modeling and designing the numerical experiments. With training provided and knowledge gained, post-docs worked in the project obtained long term positions elsewhere. The PI also enjoyed the experience in managing the works and educating work ethics to the younger generation. Based on the research achievements and publications, the PI gave invited talks in major international monsoon conferences/workshops, and gave lectures in various research organizations in the last six years. Finally, during the project period, the PI attended all the DOE organized PIs meeting and presented the major results. Some of the major implications of the project include: (i) Sustained observational efforts are necessary to monitor the three-dimensional moisture distribution over the Asian monsoon region that would aid in better understanding, modeling and predicting severe monsoons well in advance and (ii) process-based diagnostics lead pathways for model improvements.

  8. Forecasting Solar Wind Speeds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Takeru K. Suzuki

    2006-02-03

    By explicitly taking into account effects of Alfven waves, I derive from a simple energetics argument a fundamental relation which predicts solar wind (SW) speeds in the vicinity of the earth from physical properties on the sun. Kojima et al. recently found from their observations that a ratio of surface magnetic field strength to an expansion factor of open magnetic flux tubes is a good indicator of the SW speed. I show by using the derived relation that this nice correlation is an evidence of the Alfven wave which accelerates SW in expanding flux tubes. The observations further require that fluctuation amplitudes of magnetic field lines at the surface should be almost universal in different coronal holes, which needs to be tested by future observations.

  9. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  10. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    18F-FDG PET has been studied for detecting and staging recurrent ovarian cancer. Potential savings were estimated at 8500 per patient with PET (J Nucl Med...

  11. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    One last perceived cause of these delivery problems has been the lack of a hard and fast commitment to honor delivery schedules and timetables. In commercial contracts 21 there...

  12. Forecasting Future Food Security through Agent Based Modelling 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Georgie, Paul

    2010-11-24

    Regardless of what recognition human involvement has played, the consequences of our changing climate will have a negative effect on both agriculture and human well-being. This is expected to be most exacerbated for ...

  13. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergyTher i n cEnergyNaturaldefines and explains«- ChemicalSchoolsTransport

  14. Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garrett, Timothy J

    2008-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c. The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production - or p times g - through a time-independent factor of 9.7 +/- 0.3 milliwatts per inflation-adjuste...

  15. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    advantage of passive solar systems. Moreover, in the case of community energyenergy systems are shown in Table IX-7. That solar systems have a large advantagesolar rights and at the same time to take advantage of energy

  16. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  17. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  18. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  19. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  20. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    1976. R.T. Tamblyn, " Thermal Storage: June 1977. A Sleepinga flatplate collector and thermal storage system. With thethe collector and thermal storage and its exchange systems

  1. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    of Environmental Impacts of Energy Supply SOME OBSERVATIONS~. ~r:hnologies of energy supply, except for IIsupplyingllwith these systems. The energy supply system is described in

  2. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    Wind Cogeneration and Solar Thermal Hydroelectric Powerbasic heat source is solar thermal. Such a system includes afrom solar heat is o These solar thermal systems provide low

  3. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    of various distributed and renewable energy systems forto operate on renewable, largely distributed energy systems,distributed and largely renewable resources and from non-renewable energy

  4. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    of Some Major Energy Alternatives." Unpublishe d paper. (on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES), FinalStudy of Nuclear and Alternative .Energy Systems, National

  5. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    combined household greywater, human urine, and industrialwater system, the remaining greywater inflow could be reused

  6. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    systems. Alternative Energy Cooperative. Julie Reynolds,founder of Alternative Energy Cooperative), August 1, 1977,

  7. Evaluation of unthrottled combustion system options for light duty applications with future syncrude derived fuels. Alternative Fuels Utilization Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Needham, J. R.; Cooper, B. M.; Norris-Jones, S. R.

    1982-12-01

    An experimental program examining the interaction between several fuel and light duty automotive engine combinations is detailed. Combustion systems addressed covered indirect and direct injection diesel and spark ignited stratified charge. Fuels primarily covered D2, naphtha and intermediate broadcut blends. Low ignition quality diesel fuels were also evaluated. The results indicate the baseline fuel tolerance of each combustion system and enable characteristics of the systems to be compared. Performance, gaseous and particulate emissions aspects were assessed. The data obtained assists in the selection of candidate combustion systems for potential future fuels. Performance and environmental penalties as appropriate are highlighted relative to the individual candidates. Areas of further work for increased understanding are also reviewed.

  8. Future non-linear stability for solutions of the Einstein-Vlasov system of Bianchi types II and VI$_0$

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ernesto Nungesser

    2012-08-30

    In a recent paper arXiv:1208.4231 we have treated the future non-linear stability for reflection symmetric solutions of the Einstein-Vlasov system of Bianchi types II and VI$_0$. We have been able now to remove the reflection symmetry assumption, thus treating the non-diagonal case. Apart from the increasing complexity the methods have been essentially the same as in the diagonal case, showing that they are thus quite powerful. Here the challenge was to put the equations in a form that permits the use of the previous results. We are able to conclude that after a possible basis change the future of the non-diagonal spacetimes in consideration is asymptotically diagonal.

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  10. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES FORENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES FORon Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES), Final

  11. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  12. Published in Future Generation Computer Systems (15), 623 (1999), Technical Note DHPC-042.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hawick, Ken

    1999-01-01

    describe our DISCWorld system for wide-area, high-performance metacomputing in which we adopt a high: metacomputing; high-performance computing; wide-area networks; applications services. 1 Introduction Distributed Information Systems Control World (DISCWorld) system for wide-area, service-based, high-performance

  13. The house of the future

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2010-09-01

    Learn what it will take to create tomorrow's net-zero energy home as scientists reveal the secrets of cool roofs, smart windows, and computer-driven energy control systems. The net-zero energy home: Scientists are working to make tomorrow's homes more than just energy efficient -- they want them to be zero energy. Iain Walker, a scientist in the Lab's Energy Performance of Buildings Group, will discuss what it takes to develop net-zero energy houses that generate as much energy as they use through highly aggressive energy efficiency and on-site renewable energy generation. Talking back to the grid: Imagine programming your house to use less energy if the electricity grid is full or price are high. Mary Ann Piette, deputy director of Berkeley Lab's building technology department and director of the Lab's Demand Response Research Center, will discuss how new technologies are enabling buildings to listen to the grid and automatically change their thermostat settings or lighting loads, among other demands, in response to fluctuating electricity prices. The networked (and energy efficient) house: In the future, your home's lights, climate control devices, computers, windows, and appliances could be controlled via a sophisticated digital network. If it's plugged in, it'll be connected. Bruce Nordman, an energy scientist in Berkeley Lab's Energy End-Use Forecasting group, will discuss how he and other scientists are working to ensure these networks help homeowners save energy.

  14. Renewable Electricity Futures Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Renewable Electricity Futures Study Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. #12;Renewable Electricity Futures Study Edited By Hand, M.M. National Suggested Citations Renewable Electricity Futures Study (Entire Report) National Renewable Energy Laboratory

  15. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  16. Using Climate Predictions in Great Lakes Hydrologic Forecasts T. E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakes water levels cause extensive flooding, erosion, and damage to shorelines, shipping, and hydropower the forecasting system utility to decision makers and potential impacts in practical applications. CLIMATE EFFECTS

  17. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    Most Desirable Passive Solar Design Active Solar Heat On-Energy Systems Passive solar design of buildings Solar waterof implementing passive solar design techniques on a large

  18. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    will production and consumption of solar energy for heatingsolar technologies and reduced energy consumption. Theconsumption must be reduced for alternative energy systems (eg. solar,

  19. Can Future Emissions Limits be Met with a Hybrid EGR System Alone...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of hybrid EGR system in terms of deliverable EGR-rate, airfuel ratio, pumping losses and fuel use, taking into account interaction between EGR and boosting technology. Control...

  20. Comparative health and safety assessment of alternative future electrical-generation systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habegger, L.J.; Gasper, J.R.; Brown, C.D.

    1980-01-01

    The report is an analysis of health and safety risks of seven alternative electrical generation systems, all of which have potential for commercial availability in the post-2000 timeframe. The systems are compared on the basis of expected public and occupational deaths and lost workdays per year associated with 1000 MWe average unit generation. Risks and their uncertainties are estimated for all phases of the energy production cycle, including fuel and raw material extraction and processing, direct and indirect component manufacture, on-site construction, and system operation and maintenance. Also discussed is the potential significance of related major health and safety issues that remain largely unquantifiable. The technologies include: the SPS; a low-Btu coal gasification system with an open-cycle gas turbine combined with a steam topping cycle (CG/CC); a light water fission reactor system without fuel reprocessing (LWR); a liquid metal fast breeder fission reactor system (LMFBR); a central station terrestrial photovoltaic system (CTPV); and a first generation fusion system with magnetic confinement. For comparison with the baseload technologies, risk from a decentralized roof-top photovoltaic system with 6 kWe peak capacity and battery storage (DTPV) was also evaluated.

  1. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    and Solar Thermal Hydroelectric Power Geothermal . Land UsePower Commission, Hydroelectric Power Resources of thesome development for the hydroelectric power system. Nuclear

  2. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    serves as the solar collector and storage (Anderson, 1977).with neighborhood solar collection The and storage, anduse active solar systems (collectors plus storage) to meet

  3. A DYNAMICALLY RECONFIGURABLE SYSTEM-ON-A-CHIP ARCHITECTURE FOR FUTURE MOBILE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Starzyk, Janusz A.

    Systems Karlstr. 15, D-64283 Darmstadt, Germany e-mail: {becker, glesner}@mes.tu-darmstadt.de Manfred Glesner*, Janusz Starzyk** **Ohio University Electrical and Computer Engineering Athens, OH 45701 USA e mobile system infrastructure. Finally, the time-to-market and low price re- quirements have

  4. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  5. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  6. This article has been accepted for inclusion in a future issue of this journal. Content is final as presented, with the exception of pagination. IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dixon, Juan

    This article has been accepted for inclusion in a future issue of this journal. Content is final as presented, with the exception of pagination. IEEE SYSTEMS JOURNAL 1 A Risk-Constrained Project Portfolio

  7. Power Systems and Communications Infrastructures for the future, Beijing, September 2002 AN INITIAL COMPLEX SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    COMPLEX SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS OF BLACKOUTS IN POWER TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS I. Dobson D. E. Newman B of blackout risk. Indeed, the mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. To motivate our work we consider the statistics of series of blackouts. The North American Electrical

  8. Large scale participatory futures systems : a comparative study of online scenario planning approaches

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raford, Noah (Noah A.)

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective intelligence systems might play in urban planning research. Specifically, it examines methodological and practical issues raised by the design and ...

  9. HST.921 / HST.923 Information Technology in the Health Care System of the Future, Spring 2003

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Locke, Steven E. (Steven Elliot)

    The healthcare system in the US has been in the midst of a rapid transition in response to changing trends and patterns of care. The growing emphasis on evidence-based medical practice, continuous quality improvement, ...

  10. DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: A PRELIMINARY REPORT, VOLUME I

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Authors, Various

    2010-01-01

    a certain amount of energy: useful energy. 0.1 quad (Note that 0.1 quad of useful energy from a solar system Theto provide a unit of useful energy can be extended to the

  11. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity CMMBtu) of useful energy. Because many costs areis actually $2.62/MMBtu of useful energy. at four cents per5 to 10 percent of the useful energy delivered by the system

  12. Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future: A Preliminary Report Volume 2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balderston, F.

    2010-01-01

    in the thermal mass of a passive building. for degree dayEnergy Systems Passive solar design of buildings Solar waterPassive Solar Architecture and the California Building Code,

  13. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  14. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  15. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  16. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  17. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  18. Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maryland at College Park, University of

    Making Forecasts for Chaotic Physical Processes Christopher M. Danforth* and James A. Yorke of years into the future [1], as well as the evolution of galactic clusters [2]. Plasma phys- icists use is followed. Given this limitation, the modeler's goal is that some linear combination of ensemble members

  19. The future of GPS-based electric power system measurements, operation and control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rizy, D.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Wilson, R.E. [Western Area Power Administration, Golden, CO (United States); Martin, K.E.; Litzenberger, W.H. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States); Hauer, J.F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Overholt, P.N. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Sobajic, D.J. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Much of modern society is powered by inexpensive and reliable electricity delivered by a complex and elaborate electric power network. Electrical utilities are currently using the Global Positioning System-NAVSTAR (GPS) timekeeping to improve the network`s reliability. Currently, GPS synchronizes the clocks on dynamic recorders and aids in post-mortem analysis of network disturbances. Two major projects have demonstrated the use of GPS-synchronized power system measurements. In 1992, the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI) sponsored Phase Measurements Project used a commercially available Phasor Measurements Unit (PMU) to collect GPS-synchronized measurements for analyzing power system problems. In 1995, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) under DOE`s and EPRI`s sponsorship launched the Wide Area Measurements (WAMS) project. WAMS demonstrated GPS-synchronized measurements over a large area of their power networks and demonstrated the networking of GPS-based measurement systems in BPA and WAPA. The phasor measurement technology has also been used to conduct dynamic power system tests. During these tests, a large dynamic resistor was inserted to simulate a small power system disturbance.

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  1. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  2. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  3. Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zinaman, O.; Miller, M.; Adil, A.; Arent, D.; Cochran, J.; Vora, R.; Aggarwal, S.; Bipath, M.; Linvill, C.; David, A.; Kauffman, R.; Futch, M.; Villanueva Arcos, E.; Valenzuela, J. M.; Martinot, E.; Bazilian, M.; Pillai, R. K.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes key forces driving transformation in the power sector around the world, presents a framework for evaluating decisions regarding extent and pace of change, and defines pathways for transformation. Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Three approaches to policy and technology decision-making can guide these transformations: adaptive, reconstructive, and evolutionary. Within these approaches, we explore the five pathways that have emerged as viable models for power system transformation.

  4. Renewable Electricity Futures Study Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This volume focuses on the role of variable renewable generation in creating challenges to the planning and operations of power systems and the expansion of transmission to deliver electricity from remote resources to load centers. The technical and institutional changes to power systems that respond to these challenges are, in many cases, underway, driven by the economic benefits of adopting more modern communication, information, and computation technologies that offer significant operational cost savings and improved asset utilization. While this volume provides background information and numerous references, the reader is referred to the literature for more complete tutorials.

  5. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  6. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  7. Future Generation Computer Systems 25 (2009) 511524 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sakellariou, Rizos

    2009-01-01

    problems [2]. It does not refer only to resources such as CPU power, storage facilities and memory-oriented system for distributed data querying and integration on Grids$ Carmela Comitoa, , Anastasios Gounarisb November 2008 Available online 7 December 2008 Keywords: Data Grids Distributed query processing Wide

  8. Engineering Energy Systems of the Future as Cyber-Physical Ecosystems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ilic, Marija D.

    OF CYBER-PHYSICAL ECO-ENERGY SYSTEMS · Becoming commercially feasible (cost- effective supporting technologies; distributed IT infrastructure in place; low additional cost for implementing customer choice) #12 resources to provide the same energy density per capita as at present; right of ways hard to obtain

  9. Magnetic levitation systems for future aeronautics and space research and missions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blankson, I.M.; Mankins, J.C.

    1996-02-01

    The objectives, advantages, and research needs for several applications of superconducting magnetic levitation to aerodynamics research, testing, and space-launch are discussed. Applications include very large-scale magnetic balance and suspension systems for high alpha testing, support interference-free testing of slender hypersonic propulsion/airframe integrated vehicles, and hypersonic maglev. Current practice and concepts are outlined as part of a unified effort in high magnetic fields R&D within NASA. Recent advances in the design and construction of the proposed ground-based Holloman test track (rocket sled) that uses magnetic levitation are presented. It is projected that ground speeds of up to Mach 8 to 11 at sea-level are possible with such a system. This capability may enable supersonic combustor tests as well as ramjet-to-scramjet transition simulation to be performed in clean air. Finally a novel space launch concept (Maglifter) which uses magnetic levitation and propulsion for a re-usable `first stage` and rocket or air-breathing combined-cycle propulsion for its second stage is discussed in detail. Performance of this concept is compared with conventional advanced launch systems and a preliminary concept for a subscale system demonstration is presented.

  10. Enabling Interoperability and Extensibility of Future SCADA Systems Wei Ye and John Heidemann

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heidemann, John

    the sen- sor coverage. For example, in a SCADA system devel- oped for oil and gas fields, the RTUs- rent RTUs makes it hard to extend the SCADA from one application to another. This position paper argues is based on the application of oil and gas field monitoring, a collabo- rative effort between USC

  11. Automated Energy Distribution and Reliability System: Validation Integration - Results of Future Architecture Implementation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buche, D. L.

    2008-06-01

    This report describes Northern Indiana Public Service Co. project efforts to develop an automated energy distribution and reliability system. The purpose of this project was to implement a database-driven GIS solution that would manage all of the company's gas, electric, and landbase objects. This report is second in a series of reports detailing this effort.

  12. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  13. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  14. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  15. What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Soren T. Anderson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silver, Whendee

    What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices? Soren T. Anderson Michigan State University of consumers about their expectations of future gasoline prices. Overall, we find that consumer beliefs follow a random walk, which we deem a reasonable forecast of gasoline prices, but we find a deviation from

  16. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  17. Highly stable evolution of Earth's future orbit despite chaotic behavior of the Solar System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2015-01-01

    Due to the chaotic nature of the Solar System, the question of its dynamic long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, e.g. based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization, including catastrophic encounters and/or collisions involving the Earth, has been suggested to be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity (eM), with an estimated probability of ~1%. However, it has recently been shown that the statistics of numerical Solar System integrations are sensitive to the accuracy and type of numerical algorithm. Here I report results from computationally demanding ensemble integrations (N=1,600 with slightly different initial conditions) at unprecedented accuracy based on the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The standard symplectic algorithm produced spurious results for highly eccentric orbits and during close encounters, which were hence integrated with a suitabl...

  18. The future of primary care : an engineering system approach to fix the U.S. health care system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chong, Stéphane

    2009-01-01

    The ailing U.S. health care system faces two tremendous challenges: a rising health care bill and a growing number of uninsured individuals. Several policies have been enacted to tackle these challenges but they are ...

  19. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-01-01

    energy cost/value; and electricity system reliability, quality, and sufficiency are all CaliforniaCalifornia to increase energy self-sufficiency and reliability Greater Regional Coordination Maturing regional processes for equitable sharing of cost and

  20. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  1. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  2. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  3. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  4. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  6. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  7. The Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System architecture: Past, present, and future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dalesio, L.R.; Hill, J.O.; Kraimer, M.; Lewis, S.; Murray, D.; Hunt, S.; Claussen, M.; Watson, W.; Dalesio, J.

    1993-11-01

    The Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS), has been used at a number of sites for performing data acquisition, supervisory control, closed-loop control, sequential control, and operational optimization. The EPICS architecture was originally developed by a group with diverse backgrounds in physics and industrial control. The current architecture represents one instance of the ``standard model.`` It provides distributed processing and communication from any LAN device to the front end controllers. This paper will present the genealogy, current architecture, performance envelope, current installations, and planned extensions for requirements not met by the current architecture.

  8. Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Future Power Systems: The Role of Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weitemeyer, Stefan; Vogt, Thomas; Agert, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Integrating a high share of electricity from non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources in a power supply system is a challenging task. One option considered in many studies dealing with prospective power systems is the installation of storage devices to balance the fluctuations in power production. However, it is not yet clear how soon storage devices will be needed and how the integration process depends on different storage parameters. Using long-term solar and wind energy power production data series, we present a modelling approach to investigate the influence of storage size and efficiency on the pathway towards a 100% RES scenario. Applying our approach to data for Germany, we found that up to 50% of the overall electricity demand can be met by an optimum combination of wind and solar resources without both curtailment and storage devices if the remaining energy is provided by sufficiently flexible power plants. Our findings show further that the installation of small, but highly efficient storage devic...

  9. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  10. 526 VOLUME 14W E A T H E R A N D F O R E C A S T I N G Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by the automation of largely clerical tasks, allowing the forecasters more time to focus on the forecast problem in Kansas City, numerous major changes took place in forecast products, computer systems, and personnel mi either side of a line from city A to city B). The watch process has played an important role over

  11. Fitting and forecasting non-linear coupled dark energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Casas, Santiago; Baldi, Marco; Pettorino, Valeria; Vollmer, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    We consider cosmological models in which dark matter feels a fifth force mediated by the dark energy scalar field, also known as coupled dark energy. Our interest resides in estimating forecasts for future surveys like Euclid when we take into account non-linear effects, relying on new fitting functions that reproduce the non-linear matter power spectrum obtained from N-body simulations. We obtain fitting functions for models in which the dark matter-dark energy coupling is constant. Their validity is demonstrated for all available simulations in the redshift range $z=0-1.6$ and wave modes below $k=10 \\text{h/Mpc}$. These fitting formulas can be used to test the predictions of the model in the non-linear regime without the need for additional computing-intensive N-body simulations. We then use these fitting functions to perform forecasts on the constraining power that future galaxy-redshift surveys like Euclid will have on the coupling parameter, using the Fisher matrix method for galaxy clustering (GC) and w...

  12. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  13. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  14. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  15. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  16. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  18. Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mai, T.

    2012-08-01

    This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a Power Systems Engineering Research Center webinar on September 4, 2012.

  19. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08

    .............................................................................................9 Task 1: Developing a database of solar weather data ...............................9 Task 2: Developing the ?dynamic analysis? process .............................. 10 Task 3: Developing a Java applet that presents real-time solar...-computing resources have been recently discovered. Software materials include the programming language ?Java?, the Graphical-User-Interface ?JCreator?, and Rapid Miner. We also make use of publicly available scientific databases that contain a vast plethora...

  20. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  1. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  2. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  8. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  9. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  10. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  11. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  12. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  13. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  14. Preparation of Nucleic Acid Libraries for Personalized Sequencing Systems Using an Integrated Microfluidic Hub Technology (Seventh Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting 2012)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Patel, Kamlesh D [Ken]; SNL,

    2013-01-25

    Kamlesh (Ken) Patel from Sandia National Laboratories (Livermore, California) presents "Preparation of Nucleic Acid Libraries for Personalized Sequencing Systems Using an Integrated Microfluidic Hub Technology " at the 7th Annual Sequencing, Finishing, Analysis in the Future (SFAF) Meeting held in June, 2012 in Santa Fe, NM.

  15. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  16. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  17. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  18. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  19. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  20. The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion ...

  1. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  2. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds. The software can be used for area planning purposes. The software contains user's tools to design new load pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I

  3. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  4. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  5. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  6. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  7. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  8. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  10. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  11. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  12. The Universal Arrow of Time V-VI: (Part V) Unpredictable dynamics (Part VI) Future of artificial intelligence - Art, not Science: Practical Application of Unpredictable Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oleg Kupervasser

    2013-05-23

    The paper consists of the two independent papers:(Part V) We see that exact equations of quantum and classical mechanics describe ideal dynamics which is reversible and leads to Poincare's returns. Real equations of physics describing observable dynamics, for example, hydrodynamic equations of viscous fluid, are irreversible and exclude Poincare's returns to the initial state. Besides, these equations describe systems in terms of macroparameters or phase distribution functions of microparameters. For many systems introduction of macroparameters that allow exhaustive describing of dynamics of the system is impossible. Their dynamics becomes unpredictable in principle, sometimes even unpredictable by the probabilistic way. We will refer to dynamics describing such system as unpredictable dynamics. Dynamics of unpredictable systems is not described and not predicted by scientific methods. Thus, the science itself puts boundaries for its applicability. But such systems can intuitively "understand itself" and "predict" the behavior "of its own" or even "communicate with each other" at intuitive level. (Part VI) Perspective of the future of artificial intellect (AI) is considered. It is shown that AI development in the future will be closer rather to art than to science. Complex dissipative systems whose behavior cannot be understood completely in principle will be the basis of AI. Nevertheless, it will not be a barrier for their practical use.

  13. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  14. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  15. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  16. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  17. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  18. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  19. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  20. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  1. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  2. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  3. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  4. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  5. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  6. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  7. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  8. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  9. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  10. Control and Protection Paradigms of the Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Control and Protection Paradigms of the Future Future Grid Thrust Area 2 White Paper Power Systems Engineering Research Center Empowering Minds to Engineer the Future Electric Energy System #12;Thrust Area 2 White Paper Control and Protection Paradigms of the Future Project Team C.L. DeMarco, C.A. Baone, B

  11. Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Eds., T. Matsuno and H. Kida, pp. 145172.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moorcroft, Paul R.

    145 Present and Future of Modeling Global Environmental Change: Toward Integrated Modeling, Eds., T, NH 03824, U.S.A. Abstract--Here we examine the cause, size and future of the U.S. carbon sink.4%, with the remainder due to land use. To forecast the future of the U.S. carbon sink, we used the Ecosystem Demography

  12. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  13. R. Serres, Power System Analysis Project, 2014 Course Project, ELENE 4511: Power System Analysis, taught by Professor Javad Lavaei, May 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    . Introduction The load or demand forecasting is an estimation of electricity consumption in the future (except with high renewable energy penetration), load forecasting consists in predicting so). NYISO needs a forecast of electricity demand to schedule and control grid operation and thus, create

  14. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  15. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  16. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  17. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  18. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  19. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  20. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  1. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  2. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  3. Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    @compute.dtu.dk www.compute.dtu.dk M.Sc.-2013-87 #12;Summary (English) The Danish power production coming from energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present Thesis

  4. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  5. Water: The Future’s Fuel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benavente, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    George W. 1881. The Use of Water as a Fuel. Science, 321-combusted  with  O  Water:  The  Future’s  Fuel   163  Sciences, 3329-3342.  Water:  The  Future’s  Fuel   165  

  6. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  7. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  8. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    for this systems. Depending on the application, prediction of solar irradiance is beneficial on different timeSHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette Solar World Congress. This portion of the paper is the abstract. The abstract should not exceed 250

  9. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  10. Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for developing op&mal mix of observa&onal systems and NWP for real-&me nowcas&ng and forecas&ng&al end users Developing a Quan.ta.ve Precipita.on Es.ma.on, Nowcas.ng and Streamflow

  11. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  12. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  13. Simulated impact of urban expansion on future temperature heatwaves in Sydney

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evans, Jason

    Simulated impact of urban expansion on future temperature heatwaves in Sydney D. Argüesoa,b , J on 2-m temperature are investigated over Greater Sydney using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF the expected urban expansion in the future simulation according to local government urbanisation plans

  14. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  15. The Future of Geothermal Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ito, Garrett

    The Future of Geothermal Energy Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century #12;The Future of Geothermal Energy Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS and Renewable Energy, Office of Geothermal Technologies, Under DOE Idaho Operations Office Contract DE-AC07-05ID

  16. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  17. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  18. Small Water System Management Program: 100 K Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunacek, G.S. Jr. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-06-29

    Purposes of this document are: to provide an overview of the service and potable water system presently in service at the Hanford Site`s 100 K Area; to provide future system forecasts based on anticipated DOE activities and programs; to delineate performance, design, and operations criteria; and to describe planned improvements. The objective of the small water system management program is to assure the water system is properly and reliably managed and operated, and continues to exist as a functional and viable entity in accordance with WAC 246-290-410.

  19. Future land use plan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-08-31

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) changing mission, coupled with the need to apply appropriate cleanup standards for current and future environmental restoration, prompted the need for a process to determine preferred Future Land Uses for DOE-owned sites. DOE began the ``Future Land Use`` initiative in 1994 to ensure that its cleanup efforts reflect the surrounding communities` interests in future land use. This plan presents the results of a study of stakeholder-preferred future land uses for the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in central Long Island, New York. The plan gives the Laboratory`s view of its future development over the next 20 years, as well as land uses preferred by the community were BNL ever to cease operations as a national laboratory (the post-BNL scenario). The plan provides an overview of the physical features of the site including its history, topography, geology/hydrogeology, biological inventory, floodplains, wetlands, climate, and atmosphere. Utility systems and current environmental operations are described including waste management, waste water treatment, hazardous waste management, refuse disposal and ground water management. To complement the physical descriptions of the site, demographics are discussed, including overviews of the surrounding areas, laboratory population, and economic and non-economic impacts.

  20. Quantum motor and future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evgeny G. Fateev

    2013-01-20

    In a popular language, the possibilities of the Casimir expulsion effect are presented, which can be the basis of quantum motors. Such motors can be in the form of a special multilayer thin film with periodic and complex nanosized structures. Quantum motors of the type of the Casimir platforms can be the base of transportation, energy and many other systems in the future.

  1. Global energy - assessing the future

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, J.; Reiley, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    This book applies various forecasts of energy use to the CO/sub 2/ problem. The effect of demographic factors and economic growth on energy consumption are considered and a model is proposed relating energy consumption and carbon dioxide; predictions are made up to the year 2050 and the uncertainties in these long-term energy projections considered. Energy forms taken into account include oil and gas (both conventional and unconventional), coal, nuclear energy, solar and wind power, hydroelectricity and ocean thermal energy conversion systems and biomass.

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  4. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  5. Development of standardized air-blown coal gasifier/gas turbine concepts for future electric power systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadowski, R.S.; Brown, M.J.; Hester, J.C.; Harriz, J.T.; Ritz, G.J.

    1991-02-01

    The objective of this study is to develop standardized air blown fixed bed gasification hot gas cleanup integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) systems.

  6. SPECIAL COLLOQUIUM : Building a Commercial Space Launch System and the Role of Space Tourism in the Future (exceptionally on Tuesday)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-04-25

    The talk will explore a little of the history of space launch systems and rocketry, will explain why commercial space tourism did not take off after Apollo, and what is happening right now with commercial space systems such as Virgin's, utilising advances in aerospace technology not exploited by conventional ground-based rocket systems. I will then explain the Virgin Galactic technology, its business plan as a US-regulated space tourism company, and the nature of its applications. I will then go on to say a little of how our system can be utilised for sub-orbital space science based on a commercial business plan

  7. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentric viewing system for light collectionEnergy

  8. Electric Energy Challenges of the Future Future Grid Thrust Area 1 White Paper

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Electric Energy Challenges of the Future Future Grid Thrust Area 1 White Paper Power Systems Engineering Research Center Empowering Minds to Engineer the Future Electric Energy System #12;Thrust Area 1 White Paper Electric Energy Challenges of the Future Project Team Gerald T. Heydt, Kory Hedman Arizona

  9. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  10. Waste Information Management System-2012 - 12114

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Shoffner, P.; Lagos, L.; Roelant, D. [Applied Research Center, Florida International University, 10555 West Flagler Street, Suite 2100, Miami, FL 33174 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The Waste Information Management System (WIMS) -2012 was updated to support the Department of Energy (DOE) accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedule. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of radioactive waste that would be generated by DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site historically collected, organized, and displayed waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. In order for interested parties to understand and view the complete DOE complex-wide picture, the radioactive waste and shipment information of each DOE site needed to be entered into a common application. The WIMS application was therefore created to serve as a common application to improve stakeholder comprehension and improve DOE radioactive waste treatment and disposal planning and scheduling. WIMS allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, developed and deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the radioactive waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. WIMS continues to successfully accomplish the goals and objectives set forth by DOE for this project. It has replaced the historic process of each DOE site gathering, organizing, and reporting their waste forecast information utilizing different databases and display technologies. In addition, WIMS meets DOE's objective to have the complex-wide waste forecast and transportation information available to all stakeholders and the public in one easy-to-navigate system. The enhancements to WIMS made since its initial deployment include the addition of new DOE sites and facilities, an updated waste and transportation information, and the ability to easily display and print customized waste forecast, the disposition maps, GIS maps and transportation information. The system also allows users to customize and generate reports over the web. These reports can be exported to various formats, such as Adobe{sup R} PDF, Microsoft Excel{sup R}, and Microsoft Word{sup R} and downloaded to the user's computer. Future enhancements will include database/application migration to the next level. A new data import interface will be developed to integrate 2012-13 forecast waste streams. In addition, the application is updated on a continuous basis based on DOE feedback. (authors)

  11. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

  12. Physics of laser fusion. Volume IV. The future development of high-power solid-state laser systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Emmett, J.L.; Krupke, W.F.; Trenholme, J.B.

    1982-11-01

    Solid state lasers, particularly neodymium glass systems, have undergone intensive development during the last decade. In this paper, we review solid state laser technology in the context of high-peak-power systems for inertial confinement fusion. Specifically addressed are five major factors: efficiency, wavelength flexibility, average power, system complexity, and cost; these factors today limit broader application of the technology. We conclude that each of these factors can be greatly improved within current fundamental physical limits. We further conclude that the systematic development of new solid state laser madia, both vitreous and crystalline, should ultimately permit the development of wavelength-flexible, very high average power systems with overall efficiencies in the range of 10 to 20%.

  13. Building Energy Certification System: Application to a Building in Lisbon and Paths to a Future Enhanced Scheme 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nunes, P.; Carrilho da Graca, G.

    2011-01-01

    growth prospects in absolute consumption. In Portugal, the implementation of the Energy Certification System and Indoor Air Quality (SCE) [2] [3] [4] is an important step in the promotion of energy efficiency and achievement of the national targets...

  14. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  15. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Results from Phase 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phil Patterson, P.; Singh, M.; Plotkin, S.; Moore, J.

    2007-03-09

    Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  16. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  17. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  18. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  19. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  2. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  3. Pasolini for the Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ricciardi, Alessia

    2011-01-01

    Pasolini for the Future 1 AlessiaRicciardi Although “the future” may represent an ever hazierloss of hope regarding the future has become integral to our

  4. The Future Metropolitan Landscape

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bosselmann, Peter; Ruggeri, Deni

    2007-01-01

    The Future Metropolitan Landscape Peter Bosselmann and DeniMetropolitan Landscape The Future Metropolitan Landscape Thecomplex phenomenon of “The Future Metropolitan Landscape. ”

  5. Development of standardized air-blown coal gasifier/gas turbine concepts for future electric power systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blough, E.; Russell, W.; Leach, J.W.

    1990-08-01

    Computer models have been developed for evaluating conceptual designs of integrated coal gasification combined cycle power plants. An overall system model was developed for performing thermodynamic cycle analyses, and detailed models were developed for predicting performance characteristics of fixed bed coal gasifiers and hot gas clean up subsystem components. The overall system model performs mass and energy balances and does chemical equilibrium analyses to determine the effects of changes in operating conditions, or to evaluate proposed design changes. An existing plug flow model for fixed bed gasifiers known as the Wen II model was revised and updated. Also, a spread sheet model of zinc ferrite sulfur sorbent regeneration subsystem was developed. Parametric analyses were performed to determine how performance depends on variables in the system design. The work was done to support CRS Sirrine Incorporated in their study of standardized air blown coal gasifier gas turbine concepts.

  6. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  7. FuturICT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Helbing, Dirk; Lukowicz, Paul

    2012-01-01

    FuturlCT is a FET Flagship project using collective, participatory research, integrated across ICT, the social sciences and complexity science, to design socio-inspired technology and develop a science of global, socially interactive systems. The project will bring together, on a global level, Big Data, new modelling techniques and new forms of interaction, leading to a new understanding of society and its coevolution with technology. It aims to understand, explore and manage our complex, connected world in a more sustainable and resilient way. FuturICT is motivated by the fact that ubiquitous communication and sensing blur the boundaries between the physical and digital worlds, creating unparalleled opportunities for understanding the socio-economic fabric of our world, and for empowering humanity to make informed, responsible decisions for its future. The intimate, complex and dynamic relationship between global, networked ICT systems and human society directly influences the complexity and manageability of...

  8. AUTO ID FUTURE - FREQUENCY AGNOSTIC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DATTA, SHOUMEN

    Identification of information is one key to the development of intelligent decision systems of the future. Frequency agnostic automatic identification is only one step in the physical world to make physical objects identify ...

  9. CURRENT FUTURE Students taking Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Linhardt, Robert J.

    an additive manufacturing center, and a common large project space » develop a showcase of advanced technologies in; additive manufacturing, composites, advanced machin- ing, manufacturing systems controlCURRENT FUTURE Students taking Introduction to Engineering Design, the new Manufacturing Processes

  10. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  11. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  12. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  13. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  14. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; USA, Richland Washington; Oostrom, Mart; USA, Richland Washington; Porse, Sean L.; USA, Richland Washington; Thorne, Paul D.; USA, Richland Washington; Szecsody, Jim E.; USA, Richland Washington; Horner, Jake A.; USA, Richland Washington; Gilmore, Tyler J.; USA, Richland Washington

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios into the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at different vertical positions within the Ironton Sandstone. These preliminary results, and results from an updated models that incorporate additional site-specific characterization data, support development/refinement of the monitoring system design.

  15. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Vermuel, Vince R. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Oostrom, Mart [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Porse, Sean L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Thorne, Paul D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Szecsody, Jim E. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Horner, Jake A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA; Gilmore, Tyler J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland Washington USA

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios into the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at different vertical positions within the Ironton Sandstone. These preliminary results, and results from an updated models that incorporate additional site-specific characterization data, support development/refinement of the monitoring system design.

  16. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; USA, Richland Washington; Oostrom, Mart; USA, Richland Washington; Porse, Sean L.; USA, Richland Washington; Thorne, Paul D.; USA, Richland Washington; et al

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios intomore »the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at different vertical positions within the Ironton Sandstone. These preliminary results, and results from an updated models that incorporate additional site-specific characterization data, support development/refinement of the monitoring system design.« less

  17. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  18. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  19. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  20. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas