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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

MSN YYYYMM Value Column Order Description Unit FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

MSN YYYYMM Value Column Order Description Unit MSN YYYYMM Value Column Order Description Unit FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu FFPRBUS Total Fossil Fuels Production Quadrillion Btu

2

Diagram 5. Electricity Flow, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

generation. f Transmission and distribution losses (electricity losses that occur between the pointDiagram 5. Electricity Flow, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu) Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2007 221 Coal 20.99 Nuclear Electric Power 8.41 Energy Consumed To Generate Electricity 42

Bensel, Terrence G.

3

Table 1.1 Primary Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review November 2013 3 Table 1.1 Primary Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu) Production Trade

4

Figure 10.1 Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Figure 10.1 Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Total and Major Sources, 1949–2012 By Source, 2012 By Sector, 2012 Compared With Other Resources, 1949–2012

5

Table 1.2 Primary Energy Production by Source (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review November 2013 5 Table 1.2 Primary Energy Production by Source (Quadrillion Btu)

6

Table 1.4a Primary Energy Imports by Source (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

10 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review October 2013 Table 1.4a Primary Energy Imports by Source (Quadrillion Btu) Imports

7

Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review October 2013 7 Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Quadrillion Btu)

8

Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review November 2013 7 Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Quadrillion Btu)

9

Table 1.1 Primary Energy Overview, 1949-2011 (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table 1.1 Primary Energy Overview, 1949-2011 (Quadrillion Btu) Year: Production: Trade: Stock Change and Other 8: Consumption: Fossil Fuels 2

10

Table 1.2 Primary Energy Production by Source (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review August 2013 5 Table 1.2 Primary Energy Production by Source (Quadrillion Btu) Fossil Fuels

11

Expanded standards and codes case limits combined buildings delivered energy to 21 quadrillion Btu by 2035  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Erin Boedecker, Session Moderator Erin Boedecker, Session Moderator April 27, 2011 | Washington, DC Energy Demand. Efficiency, and Consumer Behavior 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 Technology Reference Expanded Standards Expanded Standards + Codes -7.6% ≈ 0 Expanded standards and codes case limits combined buildings delivered energy to 21 quadrillion Btu by 2035 2 Erin Boedecker, EIA Energy Conference, April 27, 2011 delivered energy quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 -4.8% 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 Technology Reference High Technology High technology assumptions with more efficient consumer behavior keep buildings energy to just over 20 quadrillion Btu 3 Erin Boedecker, EIA Energy Conference, April 27, 2011 delivered energy quadrillion Btu

12

Analysis of industrial markets for low and medium Btu coal gasification. [Forecasting  

SciTech Connect

Low- and medium-Btu gases (LBG and MBG) can be produced from coal with a variety of 13 existing and 25 emerging processes. Historical experience and previous studies indicate a large potential market for LBG and MBG coal gasification in the manufacturing industries for fuel and feedstocks. However, present use in the US is limited, and industry has not been making substantial moves to invest in the technology. Near-term (1979-1985) market activity for LBG and MBG is highly uncertain and is complicated by a myriad of pressures on industry for energy-related investments. To assist in planning its program to accelerate the commercialization of LBG and MBG, the Department of Energy (DOE) contracted with Booz, Allen and Hamilton to characterize and forecast the 1985 industrial market for LBG and MBG coal gasification. The study draws five major conclusions: (1) There is a large technically feasible market potential in industry for commercially available equipment - exceeding 3 quadrillion Btu per year. (2) Early adopters will be principally steel, chemical, and brick companies in described areas. (3) With no additional Federal initiatives, industry commitments to LBG and MBG will increase only moderately. (4) The major barriers to further market penetration are lack of economic advantage, absence of significant operating experience in the US, uncertainty on government environmental policy, and limited credible engineering data for retrofitting industrial plants. (5) Within the context of generally accepted energy supply and price forecasts, selected government action can be a principal factor in accelerating market penetration. Each major conclusion is discussed briefly and key implications for DOE planning are identified.

1979-07-30T23:59:59.000Z

13

Table US12. Total Consumption by Energy End Uses, 2005 Quadrillion ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) U.S. Households (millions) Other Appliances and Lighting Space Heating (Major Fuels) 4 Air-Conditioning 5 Water Heating 6 ...

14

Figure 1.1 Primary Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Web Page: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/#summary. Source: Table 1.1. 2 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review October 2013

15

Table 1.1 Primary Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Fossil Fuelsa Nuclear Electric Power Renew-able Energyb Total Imports Exports Net Importsc ... fuel ethanol stock change; and biodiesel stock change and balancing item.

16

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

17

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) U ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

heating oil. (b) Wood and wood-derived fuels. (c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, ...

18

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

19

The Btu tax is dead, long live the Btu tax  

SciTech Connect

The energy industry is powerful. That is the only explanation for its ability to jettison a cornerstone of the Clinton Administration's proposed deficit reduction package, the Btu tax plan, expected to raise about $71.5 billion over a five-year period. Clinton had proposed a broad-based energy tax of 25.7 cents per million Btus, and a surcharge of 34.2 cents on petroleum products, to be phased in over three years starting July 1, 1994. House Democrats went along, agreeing to impose a tax of 26.8 cents per million Btus, along with the 34.2-cent petroleum surcharge, both effective July 1, 1994. But something happened on the way to the Senate. Their version of the deficit reduction package contains no broad-based energy tax. It does, however, include a 4.3 cents/gallon fuel tax. Clinton had backed down, and House Democrats were left feeling abandoned and angry. What happened has as much to do with politics-particularly the fourth branch of government, lobbyists-as with a President who wants to try to please everyone. It turns out that almost every lawmaker or lobbyist who sought an exemption from the Btu tax, in areas as diverse as farming or ship and jet fuel used in international commercial transportation, managed to get it without giving up much in return. In the end, the Btu tax was so riddled with exemptions that its effectiveness as a revenue-raiser was in doubt. Meanwhile, it turns out that the Btu tax is not dead. According to Budget Director Leon Panetta, the Administration has not given up on the Btu tax and will fight for it when the reconciliation bill goes to a joint House-Senate conference.

Burkhart, L.A.

1993-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

20

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Utah Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Utah Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2...

22

Ohio Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Ohio Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2...

23

Idaho Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Idaho Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2...

24

Texas Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Texas Heat Content of Natural Gas Deliveries to Consumers (BTU per Cubic Foot) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2...

25

Table 2.1 Energy Consumption by Sector (Trillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review October 2013 23 Table 2.1 Energy Consumption by Sector (Trillion Btu) End-Use Sectors Electric

26

Table 2.4 Industrial Sector Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review October 2013 29 Table 2.4 Industrial Sector Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu) Primary Consumptiona

27

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: BTU Analysis Plus  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Plus Plus BTU Analysis Plus logo. Heat load calculation program that performs comprehensive heat load studies with hardcopy printouts of the results. The BTU Analysi Plus program is designed for general heating, air-conditioning, and commerical studies. Since 1987, the BTU Analysis family of programs have been commercially distributed and are marketed through professional organizations, trade advertisements, and word of mouth. They are currently used in six (6) foriegn countries and the U.S. Used in temperate, tropic, artic, and arid climates. They have proved themselves easy to use, accurate and productive again and again. A version of BTU Analysis Plus was adopted for use in the revised HEATING VENTILATING AND AIR CONDITIONING FUNDAMENTALS by Raymond A. Havrella.

28

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

30

Property:Geothermal/AnnualGenBtuYr | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AnnualGenBtuYr AnnualGenBtuYr Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Pages using the property "Geothermal/AnnualGenBtuYr" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) 4 4 UR Guest Ranch Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 5.3 + A Ace Development Aquaculture Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 72.5 + Agua Calientes Trailer Park Space Heating Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 5 + Alive Polarity's Murrietta Hot Spring Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 7 + Americulture Aquaculture Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 17 + Aq Dryers Agricultural Drying Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 6.5 + Aqua Caliente County Park Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 1.8 +

31

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: BTU Analysis REG  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

REG REG BTU Analysis REG logo. Heat load calculation program that performs comprehensive heat load studies with hardcopy printouts of the results. The REG program is designed for general heating, air-conditioning, and light commercial studies. Since 1987, the BTU Analysis family of programs have been commercially distributed and are marketed through professional organizations, trade advertisements, and word of mouth. They are currently used in six (6) foriegn countries and the U.S. Used in temperate, tropic, artic, and arid climates. They have proved themselves easy to use, accurate and productive again and again. A version of BTU Analysis, was adopted for use in the revised HEATING VENTILATING AND AIR CONDITIONING FUNDAMENTALS by Raymond A. Havrella. Keywords

32

Property:Geothermal/CapacityBtuHr | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

CapacityBtuHr CapacityBtuHr Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Number. Pages using the property "Geothermal/CapacityBtuHr" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) 4 4 UR Guest Ranch Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 0.8 + A Ace Development Aquaculture Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 10.3 + Agua Calientes Trailer Park Space Heating Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 2 + Alive Polarity's Murrietta Hot Spring Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 1 + Americulture Aquaculture Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 2.4 + Aq Dryers Agricultural Drying Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 3 + Aqua Caliente County Park Pool & Spa Low Temperature Geothermal Facility + 0.3 +

33

International Energy Outlook 2013 - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Total world energy use rises from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 820 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 1 ...

34

Transportation and Handling of Medium Btu Gas in Pipelines  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Coal-derived medium btu gas can be safely transported by pipeline over moderate distances, according to this survey of current industrial pipeline practices. Although pipeline design criteria will be more stringent than for natural gas pipelines, the necessary technology is readily available.

1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Oklahoma ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Oklahoma, 1960 - 2011 1960 33.9 902.0 1,118.9 0.0 NA 17.8 17.8 2,072.6 1961 26.1 976.9 1,119.9 0.0 NA 20.2 20 ...

36

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, California ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, California, 1960 - 2011 1960 0.0 589.7 1,771.0 (s) NA 270.2 270.2 2,630.9 1961 0.0 633.8 1,737.7 0.1 NA 248.2 ...

37

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Delaware ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Delaware, 1960 - 2011 1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 5.0 5.0 5.0 1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 5.1 5.1 5.1

38

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Texas ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Texas, 1960 - 2011 1960 26.4 6,610.7 5,379.4 0.0 NA 50.2 50.2 12,066.6 1961 26.5 6,690.2 5,447.3 0.0 NA 52.0 ...

39

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Indiana ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Indiana, 1960 - 2011 1960 346.3 0.3 69.9 0.0 NA 24.6 24.6 441.1 1961 336.7 0.4 66.7 0.0 NA 24.2 24.2 428.0

40

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Oregon ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Oregon, 1960 - 2011 1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 190.5 190.5 190.5 1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 188.9 188.9 188.9

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Arizona ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Arizona, 1960 - 2011 1960 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 NA 36.2 36.2 36.7 1961 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 NA 35.1 35.1 35.5

42

Environmental Permitting of a Low-BTU Coal Gasification Facility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The high price of natural gas and fuel oil for steam/power generation has alerted industry's decision makers to potentially more economical ways to provide the needed energy. Low-Btu fuel gas produced from coal appears to be an attractive alternate that merits serious consideration since only relatively small modifications to the existing oil or gas burner system may be required, and boiler derating can be minimized. The environmental permitting and planning process for a low-Btu coal gasification facility needs to address those items that are not only unique to the gasification process itself, but also items generic to conventional firing of coal. This paper will discuss the environmental data necessary for permitting a low-Btu gasification facility located in the State of Louisiana. An actual case study for a 500,000 lb/hr natural gas-fired process steam plant being converted to low Btu gas will be presented. Typical air, water and solid waste effluents that must be considered will also be described.

Murawczyk, C.; Stewart, J. T.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

BTU convergence spawning gas market opportunities in North America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The so-called BTU convergence of US electric power and natural gas sectors is spawning a boom in market opportunities in the US Northeast that ensures the region will be North America`s fastest growing gas market. That`s the view of Catherine Good Abbott, CEO of Columbia Gas Transmission Corp., who told a Ziff Energy conference in Calgary that US Northeast gas demand is expected to increase to almost 10 bcfd in 2000 and more than 12 bcfd in 2010 from about 8 bcfd in 1995 and only 3 bcfd in 1985. The fastest growth will be in the US Northeast`s electrical sector, where demand for gas is expected to double to 4 bcfd in 2010 from about 2 bcfd in 1995. In other presentations at the Ziff Energy conference, speakers voiced concerns about the complexity and speed of the BTU convergence phenomenon and offered assurances about the adequacy of gas supplies in North American to meet demand growth propelled by the BTU convergence boom. The paper discusses the gas demand being driven by power utilities, the BTU convergence outlook, electric power demand, Canadian production and supply, and the US overview.

NONE

1998-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

44

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

45

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

"Economic","per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Characteristic(a)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.2;" 2 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.2;" " Unit: Percents." ,,,"Consumption" " ",,"Consumption","per Dollar" " ","Consumption","per Dollar","of Value" "Economic","per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Characteristic(a)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)" ,"Total United States" "Value of Shipments and Receipts" "(million dollars)" " Under 20",3,3,3 " 20-49",5,5,4 " 50-99",6,5,4 " 100-249",5,5,4 " 250-499",7,9,7 " 500 and Over",3,2,2 "Total",2,2,2

49

International Energy Statistics - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

> Countries > International Energy Statistics: International Energy Statistics; Petroleum. ... Total Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Loading ...

50

Sectoral combustor for burning low-BTU fuel gas  

SciTech Connect

A high-temperature combustor for burning low-BTU coal gas in a gas turbine is disclosed. The combustor includes several separately removable combustion chambers each having an annular sectoral cross section and a double-walled construction permitting separation of stresses due to pressure forces and stresses due to thermal effects. Arrangements are described for air-cooling each combustion chamber using countercurrent convective cooling flow between an outer shell wall and an inner liner wall and using film cooling flow through liner panel grooves and along the inner liner wall surface, and for admitting all coolant flow to the gas path within the inner liner wall. Also described are systems for supplying coal gas, combustion air, and dilution air to the combustion zone, and a liquid fuel nozzle for use during low-load operation. The disclosed combustor is fully air-cooled, requires no transition section to interface with a turbine nozzle, and is operable at firing temperatures of up to 3000.degree. F. or within approximately 300.degree. F. of the adiabatic stoichiometric limit of the coal gas used as fuel.

Vogt, Robert L. (Schenectady, NY)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

"Economic","per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Characteristic(a)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.2;" 2 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.2;" " Unit: Percents." ,,,"Consumption" ,,"Consumption","per Dollar" ,"Consumption","per Dollar","of Value" "Economic","per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Characteristic(a)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)" ,"Total United States" "Value of Shipments and Receipts" "(million dollars)" " Under 20",2.5,2.5,2.4 " 20-49",5,5,4.3 " 50-99",5.8,5.8,5.3 " 100-249",6.2,6.2,5.3 " 250-499",8.2,8,7.1 " 500 and Over",4.3,3,2.7

52

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

54

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

55

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

56

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

58

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

59

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

60

,"Weekly Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Weekly Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)",1,"Weekly","12/13/2013" ,"Release Date:","12/18/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","12/27/2013" ,"Excel File Name:","rngwhhdw.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdw.htm" ,"Source:" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.doe.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/18/2013 12:22:22 PM"

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

The Mansfield Two-Stage, Low BTU Gasification System: Report of Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The least expensive way to produce gas from coal is by low Btu gasification, a process by which coal is converted to carbon monoxide and hydrogen by reacting it with air and steam. Low Btu gas, which is used near its point of production, eliminates the high costs of oxygen and methanation required to produce gas that can be transmitted over long distance. Standard low Btu fixed bed gasifiers have historically been plagued by three constraints; namely, the production of messy tars and oils, the inability to utilize caking coals, and the inability to accept coal fines. Mansfield Carbon Products, Inc., a subsidiary of A.T. Massey Coal Company, has developed an atmospheric pressure, two-stage process that eliminates these three problems.

Blackwell, L. T.; Crowder, J. T.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Analysis of the market and product costs for coal-derived high Btu gas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

DOE analyzed the market potential and economics of coal-derived high-Btu gas using supply and demand projections that reflect the effects of natural gas deregulation, recent large oil-price rises, and new or pending legislation designed to reduce oil imports. The results indicate that an increasingly large market for supplemental gas should open up by 1990 and that SNG from advanced technology will probably be as cheap as gas imports over a wide range of assumptions. Although several studies suggest that a considerable market for intermediate-Btu gas will also exist, the potential supplemental gas demand is large enough to support both intermediate - and high-Btu gas from coal. Advanced SNG-production technology will be particularly important for processing the US's abundant, moderately to highly caking Eastern coals, which current technology cannot handle economically.

Not Available

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

"NAICS",,"per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Code(a)","Economic Characteristic(b)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

3 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.3;" 3 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.3;" " Unit: Percents." " "," ",,,"Consumption" " "," ",,"Consumption","per Dollar" " "," ","Consumption","per Dollar","of Value" "NAICS",,"per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Code(a)","Economic Characteristic(b)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)" ,,"Total United States" " 311 - 339","ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES" ,"Value of Shipments and Receipts" ,"(million dollars)" ," Under 20",3,3,3

65

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Ohio, 1960 ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table PT2. Energy Production Estimates in Trillion Btu, Ohio, 1960 - 2011 1960 796.6 36.9 31.3 0.0 NA 37.0 37.0 901.9 1961 756.0 37.3 32.7 0.0 NA 36.4 36.4 862.4

66

U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million BTU)  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million BTU) Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9; 2000's: 12.91: 15.20 ...

67

Parametric Analysis of a 6500-Btu/kWh Heat Rate Dispersed Generator  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Cost and performance assessments of two alternative system designs for a 2-MW molten carbonate fuel cell power plant yielded encouraging results: a 6500-Btu/kWh heat rate and a total plant investment of $1200-$1300/kW. Differences between the two designs establish a permissible range of operating conditions for the fuel cell that will help guide its development.

1985-08-14T23:59:59.000Z

68

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

69

Process designs and cost estimates for a medium Btu gasification plant using a wood feedstock  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A gasification plant to effect the conversion of wood to medium-Btu gas has been designed. The Purox gasifier and associated equipment were selected as a prototype, since this system is nearer to commercialization than others considered. The object was to determine the cost of those processing steps common to all gasification schemes and to identify specific research areas. A detailed flowsheet and mass-balance are presented. Capital investment statements for three plant sizes (400, 800, 1,600 oven-dry tons per day) are included along with manufacturing costs for each of these plants at three feedstock prices: $10, $20, $30 per green ton (or $20, $40, $60 per dry ton). The design incorporates a front-end handling system, package cryogenic oxygen plant, the Purox gasifier, a gas-cleaning train consisting of a spray scrubber, ionizing wet scrubber, and condenser, and a wastewater treatment facility including a cooling tower and a package activated sludge unit. Cost figures for package units were obtained from suppliers and used for the oxygen and wastewater treatment plants. The gasifier is fed with wood chips at 20% moisture (wet basis). For each pound of wood, 0.32 lb of oxygen are required, and 1.11 lb of gas are produced. The heating value of the gas product is 300 Btu/scf. For each Btu of energy input (feed + process energy) to the plant, 0.91 Btu exists with the product gas. Total capital investments required for the plants considered are $9, $15, and $24 million (1978) respectively. In each case, the oxygen plant represents about 50% of the total investment. For feedstock prices from $10 to $30 per green ton ($1.11 to $3.33 per MM Btu), break-even costs of fuel gas range from $3 to $7 per MM Btu. At $30/ton, the feedstock cost represents approximately 72% of the total product cost for the largest plant size; at $10/ton, it represents only 47% of product cost.

Desrosiers, R. E.

1979-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

71

Annual Energy Outlook 2012  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

case Other projections (million short tons) (quadrillion Btu) EVA a IHSGI INFORUM IEA b Exxon- Mobil c BP b (million short tons) (quadrillion Btu) 2015 Production 1,084 993 20.24...

72

,"U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Monthly","8/2013" Monthly","8/2013" ,"Release Date:","10/31/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","11/29/2013" ,"Excel File Name:","ngm_epg0_plc_nus_dmmbtum.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/ngm_epg0_plc_nus_dmmbtum.htm" ,"Source:","Energy Information Administration" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.doe.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/18/2013 12:22:47 PM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" "Sourcekey","NGM_EPG0_PLC_NUS_DMMBTU" "Date","U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"

73

,"U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Annual",2012 Annual",2012 ,"Release Date:","10/31/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","11/29/2013" ,"Excel File Name:","ngm_epg0_plc_nus_dmmbtua.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/ngm_epg0_plc_nus_dmmbtua.htm" ,"Source:","Energy Information Administration" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.doe.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/18/2013 12:22:46 PM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" "Sourcekey","NGM_EPG0_PLC_NUS_DMMBTU" "Date","U.S. Natural Gas Liquid Composite Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"

74

,"Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Annual",2012 Annual",2012 ,"Release Date:","12/18/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","12/27/2013" ,"Excel File Name:","rngwhhda.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhda.htm" ,"Source:" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.doe.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/18/2013 12:22:19 PM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" "Sourcekey","RNGWHHD" "Date","Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" 35611,2.49 35976,2.09 36341,2.27 36707,4.31 37072,3.96 37437,3.38 37802,5.47 38168,5.89 38533,8.69 38898,6.73

75

,"Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Daily","12/16/2013" Daily","12/16/2013" ,"Release Date:","12/18/2013" ,"Next Release Date:","12/27/2013" ,"Excel File Name:","rngwhhdd.xls" ,"Available from Web Page:","http://tonto.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm" ,"Source:" ,"For Help, Contact:","infoctr@eia.doe.gov" ,,"(202) 586-8800",,,"12/18/2013 12:22:24 PM" "Back to Contents","Data 1: Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" "Sourcekey","RNGWHHD" "Date","Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu)" 35437,3.82 35438,3.8 35439,3.61 35440,3.92 35443,4 35444,4.01 35445,4.34 35446,4.71 35447,3.91

76

Production of Medium BTU Gas by In Situ Gasification of Texas Lignite  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The necessity of providing clean, combustible fuels for use in Gulf Coast industries is well established; one possible source of such a fuel is to perform in situ gasification of Texas lignite which lies below stripping depths. If oxygen (rather than air) is used for gasification, the resulting medium Btu gas could be economically transported by pipeline from the gasification sites to the Gulf coast. Technical, environmental, and economic aspects of implementing this technology are discussed.

Edgar, T. F.

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Development and testing of low-Btu fuel gas turbine combustors  

SciTech Connect

The integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) concept represents a highly efficient and environmentally compatible advanced coal fueled power generation technology. When IGCC is coupled with high temperature desulfurization, or hot gas cleanup (HGCU), the efficiency and cost advantage of IGCC is further improved with respect to systems based on conventional low temperature gas cleanup. Commercialization of the IGCC/HGCU concept requires successful development of combustion systems for high temperature low Btu fuel in gas turbines. Toward this goal, a turbine combustion system simulator has been designed, constructed, and fired with high temperature low Btu fuel. Fuel is supplied by a pilot scale fixed bed gasifier and hot gas desulfurization system. The primary objectives of this project are: (1) demonstration of long term operability of the turbine simulator with high temperature low Btu fuel; (2) characterization of particulates and other contaminants in the fuel as well as deposits in the fuel nozzle, combustor, and first stage nozzle; and (3) measurement of NO{sub x}, CO, unburned hydrocarbons, trace element, and particulate emissions.

Bevan, S.; Abuaf, N.; Feitelberg, A.S.; Hung, S.L.; Samuels, M.S.; Tolpadi, A.K.

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

An Evaluation of Low-BTU Gas from Coal as an Alternate Fuel for Process Heaters  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

As the price gap between oil and natural gas and coal continues to widen, Monsanto has carefully searched out and examined opportunities to convert fuel use to coal. Preliminary studies indicate that the low-btu gas produced by fixed-bed, air blown gasifiers could potentially replace the natural gas now used in process heaters. The technology is well established and requires less capital than the higher-btu process heaters. Low-btu gas has sufficient heating value and flame temperature to be acceptable fuel for most process heaters. Economics for gas production appear promising, but somewhat uncertain. Rough evaluations indicate rates of return of as much as 30-40%. However, the economics are very dependent on a number of site- specific considerations including: coal vs. natural gas prices, economic life of the gas-consuming facility, quantity of gas required, need for desulfurization, location of gasifiers in relation to gas users, existence of coal unloading and storage facilities, etc. Two of these factors, the difference between coal and natural gas prices and the project life are difficult to predict. The resulting uncertainty has caused Monsanto to pursue coal gasification for process heaters with cautious optimism, on a site by site basis.

Nebeker, C. J.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Word Pro - Untitled1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Quadrillion Btu Natural Gas Electrical Losses Electrical Losses Electrical Losses Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Coal Renewable Energy Coal Petroleum Electricity...

80

"NAICS",,"per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Code(a)","Economic Characteristic(b)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.4;" 4 Relative Standard Errors for Table 6.4;" " Unit: Percents." " "," ",,,"Consumption" " "," ",,"Consumption","per Dollar" " "," ","Consumption","per Dollar","of Value" "NAICS",,"per Employee","of Value Added","of Shipments" "Code(a)","Economic Characteristic(b)","(million Btu)","(thousand Btu)","(thousand Btu)" ,,"Total United States" " 311 - 339","ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES" ,"Employment Size" ," Under 50",3,4,4 ," 50-99",5,5,5 ," 100-249",4,4,3

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

84

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

85

Low/medium-Btu coal-gasification assessment program for specific sites of two New York utilities  

SciTech Connect

The scope of this study is to investigate the technical and economic aspects of coal gasification to supply low- or medium-Btu gas to the two power plant boilers selected for study. This includes the following major studies (and others described in the text): investigate coals from different regions of the country, select a coal based on its availability, mode of transportation and delivered cost to each power plant site; investigate the effects of burning low- and medium-Btu gas in the selected power plant boilers based on efficiency, rating and cost of modifications and make recommendations for each; and review the technical feasibility of converting the power plant boilers to coal-derived gas. The following two coal gasification processes have been used as the basis for this Study: the Combustion Engineering coal gasification process produces a low-Btu gas at approximately 100 Btu/scf at near atmospheric pressure; and the Texaco coal gasification process produces a medium-Btu gas at 292 Btu/scf at 800 psig. The engineering design and economics of both plants are described. Both plants meet the federal, state, and local environmental requirements for air quality, wastewater, liquid disposal, and ground level disposal of byproduct solids. All of the synthetic gas alternatives result in bus bar cost savings on a yearly basis within a few years of start-up because the cost of gas is assumed to escalate at a lower rate than that of fuel oil, approximately 4 to 5%.

Not Available

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Design and Performance of a Low Btu Fuel Rich-Quench-Lean Gas Turbine Combustor  

SciTech Connect

General Electric Company is developing gas turbines and a high temperature desulfurization system for use in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants. High temperature desulfurization, or hot gas cleanup (HGCU), offers many advantages over conventional low temperature desulfurization processes, but does not reduce the relatively high concentrations of fuel bound nitrogen (FBN) that are typically found in low Btu fuel. When fuels containing bound nitrogen are burned in conventional gas turbine combustors, a significant portion of the FBN is converted to NO{sub x}. Methods of reducing the NO{sub x} emissions from IGCC power plants equipped with HGCU are needed. Rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustion can decrease the conversion of FBN to NO{sub x} because a large fraction of the FBN is converted into non-reactive N{sub 2} in a fuel rich stage. Additional air, required for complete combustion, is added in a quench stage. A lean stage provides sufficient residence time for complete combustion. Objectives General Electric has developed and tested a rich-quench-lean gas turbine combustor for use with low Btu fuels containing FBN. The objective of this work has been to design an RQL combustor that has a lower conversion of FBN to N{sub x} than a conventional low Btu combustor and is suitable for use in a GE heavy duty gas turbine. Such a combustor must be of appropriate size and scale, configuration (can-annular), and capable of reaching ``F`` class firing conditions (combustor exit temperature = 2550{degrees}F).

Feitelberg, A.S.; Jackson, M.R.; Lacey, M.A.; Manning, K.S.; Ritter, A.M.

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

87

Understanding Utility Rates or How to Operate at the Lowest $/BTU  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper is intended to give the reader knowledge into utility marketing strategies, rates, and services. Although water is a utility service, this paper will concern itself with the energy utilities, gas and electric. Commonality and diversity exist in the strategies and rates of the gas and electric utilities. Both provide services at no charge which make energy operation for their customers easier, safer and more economical. It is important to become familiar with utility strategies, rates, and services because energy knowledge helps your business operate at the lowest energy cost ($/BTU).

Phillips, J. N.

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

International Energy Outlook 2001 - Highlights  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

To Forecasting Home Page EIA Homepage Highlights picture of a printer Printer Friendly Version (PDF) World energy consumption is projected to increase by 59 percent from 1999 to 2020. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2001 reference case forecast. In the reference case projections for the International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), world energy consumption is projected to increase by 59 percent over a 21-year forecast horizon, from 1999 to 2020. Worldwide energy use grows from 382 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1999 to 607 quadrillion Btu in 2020 (Figure 2 and Table 1). Many developments in 2000 influenced this year’s outlook, including persistently high world oil prices, stronger than anticipated economic recovery in southeast Asia, and

90

International Energy Outlook 2000 - Highlights  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) To Forecasting Home Page bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage HIGHLIGHTS World energy consumption is projected to increase by 60 percent from 1997 to 2020. Recent price developments in world oil markets and economic recovery in Southeast Asia have altered projections relative to last year’s report. In the reference case projections for the International Energy Outlook 2000 (IEO2000), world energy consumption increases by 60 percent over a 23-year forecast period, from 1997 to 2020. Energy use worldwide increases from 380 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1997 to 608 quadrillion Btu in 2020 (Figure 2 and Table 1). Many developments in 1999 are reflected in this year’s outlook. Shifting short-term world oil markets, the beginnings

91

Fuel injection staged sectoral combustor for burning low-BTU fuel gas  

SciTech Connect

A high-temperature combustor for burning low-BTU coal gas in a gas turbine is described. The combustor comprises a plurality of individual combustor chambers. Each combustor chamber has a main burning zone and a pilot burning zone. A pipe for the low-BTU coal gas is connected to the upstream end of the pilot burning zone; this pipe surrounds a liquid fuel source and is in turn surrounded by an air supply pipe; swirling means are provided between the liquid fuel source and the coal gas pipe and between the gas pipe and the air pipe. Additional preheated air is provided by counter-current coolant air in passages formed by a double wall arrangement of the walls of the main burning zone communicating with passages of a double wall arrangement of the pilot burning zone; this preheated air is turned at the upstream end of the pilot burning zone through swirlers to mix with the original gas and air input (and the liquid fuel input when used) to provide more efficient combustion. One or more fuel injection stages (second stages) are provided for direct input of coal gas into the main burning zone. The countercurrent air coolant passages are connected to swirlers surrounding the input from each second stage to provide additional oxidant.

Vogt, Robert L. (Schenectady, NY)

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Fuel injection staged sectoral combustor for burning low-BTU fuel gas  

SciTech Connect

A high-temperature combustor for burning low-BTU coal gas in a gas turbine is described. The combustor comprises a plurality of individual combustor chambers. Each combustor chamber has a main burning zone and a pilot burning zone. A pipe for the low-BTU coal gas is connected to the upstream end of the pilot burning zone: this pipe surrounds a liquid fuel source and is in turn surrounded by an air supply pipe: swirling means are provided between the liquid fuel source and the coal gas pipe and between the gas pipe and the air pipe. Additional preheated air is provided by counter-current coolant air in passages formed by a double wall arrangement of the walls of the main burning zone communicating with passages of a double wall arrangement of the pilot burning zone: this preheated air is turned at the upstream end of the pilot burning zone through swirlers to mix with the original gas and air input (and the liquid fuel input when used) to provide more efficient combustion. One or more fuel injection stages (second stages) are provided for direct input of coal gas into the main burning zone. The countercurrent air coolant passages are connected to swirlers surrounding the input from each second stage to provide additional oxidant.

Vogt, Robert L. (Schenectady, NY)

1985-02-12T23:59:59.000Z

93

High btu gas from peat. A feasibility study. Part 1. Executive summary. Final report  

SciTech Connect

In September, 1980, the US Department of Energy (DOE) awarded a Grant (No. DE-FG01-80RA50348) to the Minnesota Gas Company (Minnegasco) to evaluate the commercial viability - technical, economic and environmental - of producing 80 million standard cubic feet per day (SCFD) of substitute natural gas (SNG) from peat. The proposed product, high Btu SNG would be a suitable substitute for natural gas which is widely used throughout the Upper Midwest by residential, commercial and industrial sectors. The study team consisted of Dravo Engineers and Constructors, Ertec Atlantic, Inc., The Institute of Gas Technology, Deloitte, Haskins and Sells and Minnegasco. Preliminary engineering and operating and financial plans for the harvesting, dewatering and gasification operations were developed. A site in Koochiching County near Margie was chosen for detailed design purposes only; it was not selected as a site for development. Environmental data and socioeconomic data were gathered and reconciled. Potential economic data were gathered and reconciled. Potential impacts - both positive and negative - were identified and assessed. The peat resource itself was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Markets for plant by-products were also assessed. In summary, the technical, economic, and environmental assessment indicates that a facility producing 80 billion Btu's per day SNG from peat is not commercially viable at this time. Minnegasco will continue its efforts into the development of peat and continue to examine other options.

Not Available

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

96

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

99

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights International Energy Outlook 2004 Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 54 percent from 2001 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2004 reference case forecast. Figure 2. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 (Quadrillion Btu). Having Problems, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8600. Figure Data Figure 3. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (Quadrillion Btu). Having problems, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8600. Figure Data Figure 4. Comparison of 2003 and 2004 World Oil Price Projections, 1970-2025 (2002 Dollars per Barrel). Figure Data Figure 5. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Energy Source, 1970-2025 (Quadrilliion Btu). Need help, call the National Energy Information Center at 202-596-8600.

103

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

105

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

106

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Cofiring of coal and dairy biomass in a 100,000 btu/hr furnace  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Dairy biomass (DB) is evaluated as a possible co-firing fuel with coal. Cofiring of DB offers a technique of utilizing dairy manure for power/steam generation, reducing greenhouse gas concerns, and increasing financial returns to dairy operators. The effects of cofiring coal and DB have been studied in a 30 kW (100,000 BTU/hr) burner boiler facility. Experiments were performed with Texas Lignite coal (TXL) as a base line fuel. The combustion efficiency from co-firing is also addressed in the present work. Two forms of partially composted DB fuels were investigated: low ash separated solids and high ash soil surface. Two types of coal were investigated: TXL and Wyoming Powder River Basin coal (WYO). Proximate and ultimate analyses were performed on coal and DB. DB fuels have much higher nitrogen (kg/GJ) and ash content (kg/GJ) than coal. The HHV of TXL and WYO coal as received were 14,000 and 18,000 kJ/kg, while the HHV of the LA-PC-DBSepS and the HA-PC-DB-SoilS were 13,000 and 4,000 kJ/kg. The HHV based on stoichiometric air were 3,000 kJ/kg for both coals and LA-PC-DB-SepS and 2,900 kJ/kg for HA-PC-DB-SoilS. The nitrogen and sulfur loading for TXL and WYO ranged from 0.15 to 0.48 kg/GJ and from 0.33 to 2.67 for the DB fuels. TXL began pyrolysis at 640 K and the WYO at 660 K. The HA-PC-DB-SoilSs began pyrolysis at 530 K and the LA-PC-DB-SepS at 510 K. The maximum rate of volatile release occurred at 700 K for both coals and HA-PC-DB-SoilS and 750K for LA-PC-DB-SepS. The NOx emissions for equivalence ratio (?) varying from 0.9 to 1.2 ranged from 0.34 to 0.90 kg/GJ (0.79 to 0.16 lb/mmBTU) for pure TXL. They ranged from 0.35 to 0.7 kg/GJ (0.82 to 0.16 lb/mmBTU) for a 90:10 TXL:LA-PC-DB-SepS blend and from 0.32 to 0.5 kg/GJ (0.74 to 0.12 lb/mmBTU) for a 80:20 TXL:LA-PC-DB-SepS blend over the same range of ?. In a rich environment, DB:coal cofiring produced less NOx and CO than pure coal. This result is probably due to the fuel bound nitrogen in DB is mostly in the form of urea which reduces NOx to non-polluting gases such as nitrogen (N2).

Lawrence, Benjamin Daniel

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Combined compressed air storage-low BTU coal gasification power plant  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

An electrical generating power plant includes a Compressed Air Energy Storage System (CAES) fueled with low BTU coal gas generated in a continuously operating high pressure coal gasifier system. This system is used in coordination with a continuously operating main power generating plant to store excess power generated during off-peak hours from the power generating plant, and to return the stored energy as peak power to the power generating plant when needed. The excess coal gas which is produced by the coal gasifier during off-peak hours is stored in a coal gas reservoir. During peak hours the stored coal gas is combined with the output of the coal gasifier to fuel the gas turbines and ultimately supply electrical power to the base power plant.

Kartsounes, George T. (Naperville, IL); Sather, Norman F. (Naperville, IL)

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Materials exposure test facilities for varying low-Btu coal-derived gas  

SciTech Connect

As a part of the United States Department of Energy's High Temperature Turbine Technology Readiness Program, the Morgantown Energy Technology Center is participating in the Ceramics Corrosion/Erosion Materials Study. The objective is to create a technology base for ceramic materials which could be used by stationary gas power turbines operating in a high-temperature, coal-derived, low-Btu gas products of combustion environment. Two METC facilities have been designed, fabricated and will be operated simultaneously exposing ceramic materials dynamically and statically to products of combustion of a coal-derived gas. The current studies will identify the degradation of ceramics due to their exposure to a coal-derived gas combustion environment.

Nakaishi, C.V.; Carpenter, L.K.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

117

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

118

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

120

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

122

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Heavy duty gas turbine combustion tests with simulated low BTU coal gas  

SciTech Connect

There is an increasing industry interest in integrated gas turbine combined cycle plants in which coal gasifiers provide the fuel for the gas turbines. Some gasifier plant designs, including the air-blown processes, some integrated oxygen blown processes and some oxygen-blown processes followed by heavy moisturization, produce fuel gases which have lower heating values ranging from 130 to below 100 BTU/scf for which there is little gas turbine combustion experience. This program has the objectives to: Parametrically determine the effects of moisture, nitrogen and carbon dioxide as diluents so that the combustion characteristics of many varieties of gasification product gases can be reasonably predicted without physically testing each specific gas composition; determine emissions characteristics including NO[sub x], CO, levels etc. associated with each of the diluents; operate with two syngas compositions; DOE chosen air-blown and integrated oxygen-blown, to confirm that the combustion characteristics are in line with predictions; determine if logical'' refinements to the fuel nozzle will yield improved performance for LBTU fuels; determine the conversion rate of ammonia to NO[sub x]; determine the effects of methane inclusion in the fuel.

Ekstrom, T.E.; Battista, R.A.; Maxwell, G.P.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Heavy duty gas turbine combustion tests with simulated low BTU coal gas  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

There is an increasing industry interest in integrated gas turbine combined cycle plants in which coal gasifiers provide the fuel for the gas turbines. Some gasifier plant designs, including the air-blown processes, some integrated oxygen blown processes and some oxygen-blown processes followed by heavy moisturization, produce fuel gases which have lower heating values ranging from 130 to below 100 BTU/scf for which there is little gas turbine combustion experience. This program has the objectives to: Parametrically determine the effects of moisture, nitrogen and carbon dioxide as diluents so that the combustion characteristics of many varieties of gasification product gases can be reasonably predicted without physically testing each specific gas composition; determine emissions characteristics including NO{sub x}, CO, levels etc. associated with each of the diluents; operate with two syngas compositions; DOE chosen air-blown and integrated oxygen-blown, to confirm that the combustion characteristics are in line with predictions; determine if ``logical`` refinements to the fuel nozzle will yield improved performance for LBTU fuels; determine the conversion rate of ammonia to NO{sub x}; determine the effects of methane inclusion in the fuel.

Ekstrom, T.E.; Battista, R.A.; Maxwell, G.P.

1992-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

126

Heavy duty gas turbine combustion tests with simulated low BTU coal gas  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

There is an increasing industry interest in integrated gas turbine combined cycle plants in which coal gasifiers provide the fuel for the gas turbines. Some gasifier plant designs, including the air-blown processes, some integrated oxygen blown processes and some oxygen-blown processes followed by heavy moisturization, produce fuel gases which have lower heating values ranging from 130 to below 100 BTU/scf for which there is little gas turbine combustion experience. This program has the objectives to: Parametrically determine the effects of moisture, nitrogen and carbon dioxide as diluents so that the combustion characteristics of many varieties of gasification product gases can be reasonably predicted without physically testing each specific gas composition; determine emissions characteristics including NO[sub x], CO, levels etc. associated with each of the diluents; operate with two syngas compositions; DOE chosen air-blown and integrated oxygen-blown, to confirm that the combustion characteristics are in line with predictions; determine if logical'' refinements to the fuel nozzle will yield improved performance for LBTU fuels; determine the conversion rate of ammonia to NO[sub x]; determine the effects of methane inclusion in the fuel.

Ekstrom, T.E.; Battista, R.A.; Maxwell, G.P.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Analysis of medium-BTU gasification condensates, June 1985-June 1986  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This report provides the final results of chemical and physical analysis of condensates from biomass gasification systems which are part of the US Department of Energy Biomass Thermochemical Conversion Program. The work described in detail in this report involves extensive analysis of condensates from four medium-BTU gasifiers. The analyses include elemental analysis, ash, moisture, heating value, density, specific chemical analysis, ash, moisture, heating value, density, specific chemical analysis (gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, infrared spectrophotometry, Carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry) and Ames Assay. This work was an extension of a broader study earlier completed of the condensates of all the gasifers and pyrolyzers in the Biomass Thermochemical Conversion Program. The analytical data demonstrates the wide range of chemical composition of the organics recoverd in the condensates and suggests a direct relationship between operating temperature and chemical composition of the condensates. A continuous pathway of thermal degradation of the tar components as a function of temperature is proposed. Variations in the chemical composition of the organic in the tars are reflected in the physical properties of tars and phase stability in relation to water in the condensate. The biological activity appears to be limited to the tars produced at high temperatures as a result of formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in high concentrations. Future studies of the time/temperature relationship to tar composition and the effect of processing atmosphere should be undertaken. Further processing of the condensates either as wastewater treatment or upgrading of the organics to useful products is also recommended. 15 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

Elliott, D.C.

1987-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

132

Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

Chin, H S

2005-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

133

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

134

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

135

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

136

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

137

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

138

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

139

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

140

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

 

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Resources Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Resources The renewable energy share of total world energy consumption is expected to remain unchanged at 8 percent through 2025, despite a projected 56-percent increase in consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable resources. In the International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) reference case, moderate growth in the world’s consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy resources is projected over the next 24 years. Renewable energy sources are not expected to compete economically with fossil fuels in the mid-term forecast. In the absence of significant government policies aimed at reducing the impacts of carbon-emitting energy sources on the environment, it will be difficult to extend the use of renewables on a large scale. IEO2003 projects that consumption of renewable energy worldwide will grow by 56 percent, from 32 quadrillion Btu in 2001 to 50 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 69).

143

International Energy Outlook 1999 - Coal  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

coal.jpg (1776 bytes) coal.jpg (1776 bytes) Coal’s share of world energy consumption falls slightly in the IEO99 forecast. Coal continues to dominate many national fuel markets in developing Asia, but it is projected to lose market share to natural gas in some other areas of the world. Historically, trends in coal consumption have varied considerably by region. Despite declines in some regions, world coal consumption has increased from 84 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1985 to 93 quadrillion Btu in 1996. Regions that have seen increases in coal consumption include the United States, Japan, and developing Asia. Declines have occurred in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the countries of the former Soviet Union. In Western Europe, coal consumption declined by 30

144

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

145

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Consumption by Primary Fuel Consumption by Primary Fuel Total primary energy consumption grows by 12% in the AEO2014 Reference case, from 95 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 106 quadrillion Btu in 2040-1.3 quadrillion Btu less than in AEO2013 (Figure 8). The fossil fuel share of energy consumption falls from 82% in 2012 to 80% in 2040, as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels declines, largely as a result of slower growth in VMT and increased vehicle efficiency. figure dataTotal U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquids, which was 35.9 quadrillion Btu (18.5 MMbbl/d) in 2012, increases to 36.9 quadrillion Btu (19.5 MMbbl/d) in 2018, then declines to 35.4 quadrillion Btu (18.7 MMbbl/d) in 2034 and remains at that level through 2040. Total consumption of domestically produced biofuels increases slightly through 2022 and then

146

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Consumption by Primary Fuel Consumption by Primary Fuel Total primary energy consumption grows by 7 percent in the AEO2013 Reference case, from 98 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 104 quadrillion Btu in 2035-2.5 quadrillion Btu less than in AEO2012-and continues to grow at a rate of 0.6 percent per year, reaching about 108 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 7). The fossil fuel share of energy consumption falls from 82 percent in 2011 to 78 percent in 2040, as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely as a result of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for LDVs. figure dataWhile total liquid fuels consumption falls, consumption of domestically produced biofuels increases significantly, from 1.3 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 2.1 quadrillion Btu in 2040, and its share of

147

High Btu gas from peat. A feasibility study. Part 2. Management plans for project continuation. Task 10. Final report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The primary objective of this task, which was the responsibility of the Minnesota Gas Company, was to determine the needs of the project upon completion of the feasibility study and determine how to implement them most effectively. The findings of the study do not justify the construction of an 80 billion Btu/day SNG from peat plant. At the present time Minnegasco will concentrate on other issues of peat development. Other processes, other products, different scales of operation - these are the issues that Minnegasco will continue to study. 3 references.

Not Available

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

153

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

156

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Documentation of the Industrial Minor Fuels and Raw Materials model (MFUEL)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Most of the industrial demand for energy is projected by components of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), mainly the PURchased Heat and Power System (PURHAPS) and the oil refineries model (REFPRIDE). Other components of IFFS project a few fuel uses that are sometimes considered industrial. MFUEL projects those portions of industrial demand not covered by other components of IFFS: industrial use of motor gasoline, industrial consumption of lubricants and waxes, petrochemical feedstocks, metallurgical coal, special naphthas, natural gas used as a chemical feedstock, asphalt and road oil, petroleum coke, industrial kerosene, industrial hydropower, net imports of coal coke, other petroleum, and LPG used as a feedstock or by gas utilities. Each fuel is projected by a single equation at the national level, based on historical relationships, and then shared out to Federal Regions. MFUEL accounts for 5.01 quadrillion Btu out of the industrial energy total of 19.66 quadrillion in 1983, including 3.52 quadrillion Btu out of the 7.83 quadrillion of industrial petroleum use.

Werbos, P.J.

1984-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Word Pro - Untitled1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Primary Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu) Consumption, Production, and Imports, 1973-2012 Consumption, Production, and Imports, Monthly Overview, April 2013 Net Imports,...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Word Pro - Untitled1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Primary Energy Overview Overview, 1949-2011 Production and Consumption, 2011 Overview, 2011 Energy Flow, 2011 (Quadrillion Btu) 4 U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual...

162

International Energy Outlook 2002  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

2. World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020 (Quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. horizonal line image...

163

International Energy Outlook 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3. World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2020 (Quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. horizonal line...

164

International Energy Outlook 2002  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6. World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020 (Quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. horizonal...

165

U.S. Energy Information Administration...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 35 Table 22. Energy intensity, projected vs. actual Projected (quadrillion Btu Billion 2005 Chained...

166

"Table 17. Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,...

167

How much of the world's energy does the United States use? - FAQ ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

How much of the world's energy does the United States use? In 2010, world total primary energy consumption was 511 quadrillion Btu. The United States' primary energy ...

168

How is electricity used in U.S. homes? - FAQ - U.S. Energy ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Estimated U.S. residential electricity consumption by end-use, 2011. End-use Quadrillion Btu Billion kilowatthours Share of total; ... tariff, and demand charge data?

169

Slide 1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... quadrillion Btu Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Unconventional light-duty vehicles constitute 45 percent of sales in 2030 Hybrids Flex Fuel Turbo Direct Injection ...

170

Rest of US  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

www.eia.gov Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 …in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu

Adam Sieminski Administrator; Adam Sieminski; Eagle Ford (tx

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Table US1. Total Energy Consumption, Expenditures, and Intensities ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) U.S. Households (millions) Other Appliances and Lighting Space Heating (Major Fuels) 4 Air-Conditioning 5 Water Heating 6 ...

172

www.eia.gov  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Wind Offshore Wind Electricity Generation (billion kilowatthours) Biogenic Municipal Waste 5/ Energy Consumption 6/ (quadrillion Btu) End-Use Generators 7/

173

Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption Estimates by Source, 1949 ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table 1.3 Primary Energy Consumption Estimates by Source, 1949-2011 (Quadrillion Btu) Year: Fossil Fuels: Nuclear Electric Power

174

U.S. expected to be largest producer of petroleum and natural ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Maps by energy source and topic, includes ... Press Releases ... for 2011 and 2012 were roughly equivalent—within 1 quadrillion Btu of one another. In 2013, ...

175

Table E1. Estimated Primary Energy Consumption in the United ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Table E1. Estimated Primary Energy Consumption in the United States, Selected Years, 1635-1945 (Quadrillion Btu) Year: Fossil Fuels

176

Annul Coal Consumption by Country (1980 -2009) Total annual coal  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Annul Coal Consumption by Country (1980 -2009) Total annual coal consumption by country, 1980 to 2009 (available as Quadrillion Btu). Compiled by Energy Information Administration...

177

Table US1. Total Energy Consumption, Expenditures, and Intensities ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Part 1: Housing Unit Characteristics and Energy Usage Indicators Energy Consumption 2 Energy Expenditures 2 Total U.S. (quadrillion Btu) Per Household (Dollars) Per

178

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Sector  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Transportation sector energy demand Growth in transportation energy consumption flat across projection figure data The transportation sector consumes 27.1 quadrillion Btu of energy...

179

Figure 70. Delivered energy consumption for transportation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 70. Delivered energy consumption for transportation by mode, 2011 and 2040 (quadrillion Btu) Total Rail Pipeline Marine ...

180

Figure 64. Industrial energy consumption by fuel, 2011, 2025, and ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 64. Industrial energy consumption by fuel, 2011, 2025, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu) Natural Gas Petroleum and other liquids

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Figure 63. Industrial delivered energy consumption by application ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 63. Industrial delivered energy consumption by application, 2011-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Manufacturing heat and power Nonmanufacturing heat ...

182

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. The dataset contains data for the Rockies region...

183

Annual Renewable Electricity Net Generation by Country (1980...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Net Generation by Country (1980 - 2009) Total annual renewable electricity net generation by country, 1980 to 2009 (available in Billion Kilowatt-hours or as Quadrillion Btu)....

184

Table AP1. Total Households Using Home Appliances and Lighting by ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Total Consumption for Home Appliances and Lighting by Fuels Used, 2005 Quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) U.S. Households (millions) Electricity

185

Bulk chemicals industry uses 5% of U.S. energy - Today in ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The industrial sector is responsible for nearly a third of total energy use in the United States, consuming an estimated 31 quadrillion Btu in 2012.

186

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2011  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Table A1. Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) Supply, Disposition, and Prices Reference Case Annual Grow th...

187

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Figure 6. Energy...  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

6. Energy production by fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. Energy Information...

188

www.eia.gov  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

"MSN","YYYYMM","Value","Column_Order","Description","Unit" "OGTCBUS",197313,57.349835,1,"Petroleum and Natural Gas Consumption","Quadrillion Btu" ...

189

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Figure 2. Energy...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. History: Energy...

190

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Figure 5. Total...  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5. Total energy production and consumption, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu). For more detailed information, contact the National Energy Information Center at (202) 586-8800. Energy...

191

Word Pro - Untitled1  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu) Production Trade Stock Change and Other d Consumption Fossil Fuels a Nuclear Electric Power Renew- able Energy b Total Imports Exports Net...

192

Word Pro - S1.lwp  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Energy Overview (Quadrillion Btu) Production Trade Stock Change and Other d Consumption Fossil Fuels a Nuclear Electric Power Renew- able Energy b Total Imports Exports Net...

193

www.eia.gov  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Fig26 Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2013 U.S. Renewable Energy Supply (Quadrillion Btu) Energy Source Hydropower Wood biomass Liquid biofuels

194

IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use . 15 . world energy consumption . quadrillion Btu . Source: EIA, International Energy ...

195

United States: Energy Resources | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

state's page. Country Profile Name United States Population Unavailable GDP Unavailable Energy Consumption 99.53 Quadrillion Btu 2-letter ISO code US 3-letter ISO code USA...

196

EIA Data: Total International Primary Energy Consumption

This...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

EIA Data: Total International Primary Energy Consumption

This table lists total primary energy consumption by country and region in Quadrillion Btu.  Figures in this table...

197

Renewable Energy Consumption for Nonelectric Use by Energy Use...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Renewable Energy Consumption for Nonelectric Use by Energy Use Sector and Energy Source, 2004 - 2008 This dataset provides annual renewable energy consumption (in quadrillion Btu)...

198

Natural Gas Consumption by Country (1980 - 2009) Total annual...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Natural Gas Consumption by Country (1980 - 2009) Total annual dry natural gas consumption by country, 1980 to 2009 (available in Quadrillion Btu). Compiled by Energy Information...

199

OpenEI - Industrial  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

renewable energy consumption (in quadrillion btu) for electricity generation in the United States by energy use sector (commercial, industrial and electric power) and by...

200

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

207

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

211

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

212

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

214

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

217

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

218

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ¥oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

229

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

230

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

231

COMPCOAL{trademark}: A profitable process for production of a stable high-Btu fuel from Powder River Basin coal  

SciTech Connect

Western Research Institute (WRI) is developing a process to produce a stable, clean-burning, premium fuel from Powder River Basin (PRB) coal and other low-rank coals. This process is designed to overcome the problems of spontaneous combustion, dust formation, and readsorption of moisture that are experienced with PRB coal and with processed PRB coal. This process, called COMPCOAL{trademark}, results in high-Btu product that is intended for burning in boilers designed for midwestern coals or for blending with other coals. In the COMPCOAL process, sized coal is dried to zero moisture content and additional oxygen is removed from the coal by partial decarboxylation as the coal is contacted by a stream of hot fluidizing gas in the dryer. The hot, dried coal particles flow into the pyrolyzer where they are contacted by a very small flow of air. The oxygen in the air reacts with active sites on the surface of the coal particles causing the temperature of the coal to be raised to about 700{degrees}F (371{degrees}C) and oxidizing the most reactive sites on the particles. This ``instant aging`` contributes to the stability of the product while only reducing the heating value of the product by about 50 Btu/lb. Less than 1 scf of air per pound of dried coal is used to avoid removing any of the condensible liquid or vapors from the coal particles. The pyrolyzed coal particles are mixed with fines from the dryer cyclone and dust filter and the resulting mixture at about 600{degrees}F (316{degrees}C) is fed into a briquettor. Briquettes are cooled to about 250{degrees}F (121{degrees}C) by contact with a mist of water in a gas-tight mixing conveyor. The cooled briquettes are transferred to a storage bin where they are accumulated for shipment.

Smith, V.E.; Merriam, N.W.

1994-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

233

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

235

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

236

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

237

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

239

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

240

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

www.eia.gov  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

AC Argentina AR Aruba AA Bahamas, The BF Barbados BB Belize BH Bolivia BL ... World Total ww (Quadrillion (10 15) Btu) F.4 World Dry Natural Gas Production (Btu ...

242

www.eia.gov  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

AC Argentina AR Aruba AA Bahamas, The BF Barbados BB Belize BH Bolivia BL Brazil BR ... World Total ww - - NA (Quadrillion (10 15) Btu) F.5 World Coal Production (Btu ...

243

table E1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

AC Argentina AR Aruba AA Bahamas, The BF Barbados BB Belize BH Bolivia BL ... Table E.1 World Primary Energy Consumption (Btu), 1980-2006 (Quadrillion (10 15 ) Btu) Page

244

Facts and Stats | ENERGY STAR  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

combined7 Global energy and climate The approximate energy released in the burning of a wood match: 1 Btu8 Total energy used in the U.S. each year: 99.89 quadrillion Btu9 Portion...

245

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

246

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

247

~A four carbon alcohol. It has double the amount of carbon of ethanol, which equates to a substantial increase in harvestable energy (Btu's).  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to a substantial increase in harvestable energy (Btu's). ~Butanol is safer to handle with a Reid Value of 0.33 psi is easily recovered, increasing the energy yield of a bushel of corn by an additional 18 percent over the energy yield of ethanol produced from the same quantity of corn. ~Current butanol prices as a chemical

Toohey, Darin W.

248

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

249

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Low NO{sub x} turbine power generation utilizing low Btu GOB gas. Final report, June--August 1995  

SciTech Connect

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is second only to carbon dioxide as a contributor to potential global warming. Methane liberated by coal mines represents one of the most promising under exploited areas for profitably reducing these methane emissions. Furthermore, there is a need for apparatus and processes that reduce the nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}) emissions from gas turbines in power generation. Consequently, this project aims to demonstrate a technology which utilizes low grade fuel (CMM) in a combustion air stream to reduce NO{sub x} emissions in the operation of a gas turbine. This technology is superior to other existing technologies because it can directly use the varying methane content gases from various streams of the mining operation. The simplicity of the process makes it useful for both new gas turbines and retrofitting existing gas turbines. This report evaluates the feasibility of using gob gas from the 11,000 acre abandoned Gateway Mine near Waynesburg, Pennsylvania as a fuel source for power generation applying low NO{sub x} gas turbine technology at a site which is currently capable of producing low grade GOB gas ({approx_equal} 600 BTU) from abandoned GOB areas.

Ortiz, I.; Anthony, R.V.; Gabrielson, J.; Glickert, R.

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

267

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

268

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

269

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

280

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center EML 4930/EML 5930 Energy Conversion Systems II  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. District heating - distributing heat from waste heat from power generating plants. Water heating: passive Energy Science and Engineering Center Solar Heating Quadrillion Btu 1 Btu = 1,055.0559 joule 1 Quadrillion = 1015 Domestic active solar heating: Space heating - Cost effective to invest in home insulation

Krothapalli, Anjaneyulu

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

282

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

285

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

The Impact of Codes, Regulations, and Standards on Split-Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, 65,000 Btu/hr and Under  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document establishes a framework for understanding the technology and regulation of split-unitary air conditioners and heat pumps 65,000 Btu/hr and under. The reporting framework is structured so that it can be added to in the future. This study is broken into six chapters:The basic components, refrigeration cycle, operation, and efficiency ratings of split-unitary air conditioners and heat pumps are covered for background information.Equipment efficiency ...

2012-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

287

System and process for the abatement of casting pollution, reclaiming resin bonded sand, and/or recovering a low Btu fuel from castings  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Air is caused to flow through the resin bonded mold to aid combustion of the resin binder to form a low Btu gas fuel. Casting heat is recovered for use in a waste heat boiler or other heat abstraction equipment. Foundry air pollutis reduced, the burned portion of the molding sand is recovered for immediate reuse and savings in fuel and other energy is achieved. 5 figs.

Scheffer, K.D.

1984-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

288

System and process for the abatement of casting pollution, reclaiming resin bonded sand, and/or recovering a low BTU fuel from castings  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Air is caused to flow through the resin bonded mold to aid combustion of the resin binder to form a low BTU gas fuel. Casting heat is recovered for use in a waste heat boiler or other heat abstraction equipment. Foundry air pollution is reduced, the burned portion of the molding sand is recovered for immediate reuse and savings in fuel and other energy is achieved.

Scheffer, Karl D. (121 Governor Dr., Scotia, NY 12302)

1984-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

289

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

297

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

298

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

300

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

306

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

307

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by Sector Energy Consumption by Sector Transportation figure data Delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector grows from 27.6 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 28.8 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case (Figure 7). Energy consumption by light-duty vehicles (LDVs) (including commercial light trucks) initially declines in the Reference case, from 16.5 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 15.7 quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to projected increases in the fuel economy of highway vehicles. Projected energy consumption for LDVs increases after 2025, to 16.3 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The AEO2012 Reference case projections do not include proposed increases in LDV fuel economy standards-as outlined in the December 2011 EPA and NHTSA Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for 2017 and

308

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple space–time scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

312

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

313

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

314

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

315

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

316

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

317

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

318

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

319

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

320

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moody’s Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

323

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

324

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

325

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

326

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

327

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

328

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

330

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the �black box� of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the �price puzzle� and the �liquidity puzzle� are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watson�s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 58 percent from 2001 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world in the IEO2003 reference case forecast. In the International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003) reference case, world energy consumption is projected to increase by 58 percent over a 24-year forecast horizon, from 2001 to 2025. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 404 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2001 to 640 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 2). As in past editions of this report, the IEO2003 reference case outlook continues to show robust growth in energy consumption among the developing nations of the world (Figure 3). The strongest growth is projected for developing Asia, where demand for energy is expected to more than double over the forecast period. An average annual growth rate of 3 percent is projected for energy use in developing Asia, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total projected increment in world energy consumption and 69 percent of the increment for the developing world alone.

332

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

334

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting” Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting,” Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Comparison of coal-based systems: marketability of medium-Btu gas and SNG (substitute natural gas) for industrial applications. Final report, July 1979-March 1982  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In assessing the marketability of synthetic fuel gases from coal, this report emphasizes the determination of the relative attractiveness of substitute natural gas (SNG) and medium-Btu gas (MBG) for serving market needs in eight industrial market areas. The crucial issue in predicting the marketability of coal-based synthetic gas is the future price level of competing conventional alternatives, particularly oil. Under a low oil-price scenario, the market outlook for synthetic gases is not promising, but higher oil prices would encourage coal gasification.

Olsen, D.L.; Trexel, C.A.; Teater, N.R.

1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

339

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

340

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

342

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri—Columbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

355

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

359

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

363

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

364

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

365

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

370

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

379

Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption and Expenditures 1992 - Executive  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

& Expenditures > Executive Summary & Expenditures > Executive Summary 1992 Consumption & Expenditures Executive Summary Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption and Expenditures 1992 presents statistics about the amount of energy consumed in commercial buildings and the corresponding expenditures for that energy. These data are based on the 1992 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), a national energy survey of buildings in the commercial sector, conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Figure ES1. Energy Consumption is Commercial Buidings by Energy Source, 1992 Energy Consumption: In 1992, the 4.8 million commercial buildings in the United States consumed 5.5 quadrillion Btu of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and district heat. Of those 5.5 quadrillion Btu, consumption of site electricity accounted for 2.6 quadrillion Btu, or 48.0 percent, and consumption of natural gas accounted for 2.2 quadrillion Btu, or 39.6 percent. Fuel oil consumption made up 0.3 quadrillion Btu, or 4.0 percent of the total, while consumption of district heat made up 0.4 quadrillion Btu, or 7.9 percent of energy consumption in that sector. When the energy losses that occur at the electricity generating plants are included, the overall energy consumed by commercial buildings increases to about 10.8 quadrillion Btu (Figure ES1).

380

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

385

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

387

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rösch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Günter Blöschl; Christian Reszler; Jürgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

394

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

395

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

397

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Monthly energy review: September 1996  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Energy production during June 1996 totaled 5.6 quadrillion Btu, a 0.5% decrease from the level of production during June 1995. Energy consumption during June 1996 totaled 7.1 quadrillion Btu, 2.7% above the level of consumption during June 1995. Net imports of energy during June 1996 totaled 1.6 quadrillion Btu, 4.5% above the level of net imports 1 year earlier. Statistics are presented on the following topics: energy consumption, petroleum, natural gas, oil and gas resource development, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, energy prices, and international energy. 37 figs., 59 tabs.

NONE

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

405

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information – including all information contained in the history of past prices – about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

410

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

414

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

415

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

416

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

417

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

418

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

419

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

420

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

422

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

423

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

424

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

425

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

426

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

427

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

428

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

429

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

430

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

432

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

433

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

436

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

437

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

438

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

442

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

443

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

444

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

445

Dynamical Properties of Model Output Statistics Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using model output statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order ...

S. Vannitsem; C. Nicolis

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

River flow forecasting with constructive neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In utilities using a mixture of hydroelectric and non-hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend upon the reservoir height and the inflow into the reservoir for several months into the future. Accurate forecasts of reservoir ...

Mêuser Valença; Teresa Ludermir; Anelle Valença

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Forecast verification: Its Complexity and Dimensionality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two fundamental characteristics of forecast verification problems—complexity and dimensionality—are described. To develop quantitative definitions of these characteristics, a general framework for the problem of absolute verification (AV) is ...

Allan H. Murphy

1991-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Consensus Forecasts of Modeled Wave Parameters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The use of numerical guidance has become integral to the process of modern weather forecasting. Using various techniques, postprocessing of numerical model output has been shown to mitigate some of the deficiencies of these models, producing more ...

Tom H. Durrant; Frank Woodcock; Diana J. M. Greenslade

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Snowfall Limit Forecasts and Hydrological Modeling  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Here a method to make use of snowfall limit information—a standard output of ...

Cara Tobin; Andrea Rinaldo; Bettina Schaefli

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a recently developed hurricane ...

Kerry Emanuel; Fabian Fondriest; James Kossin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Airborne Volcanic Ash Forecast Area Reliability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In support of aircraft flight safety operations, daily comparisons between modeled, hypothetical, volcanic ash plumes calculated with meteorological forecasts and analyses were made over a 1.5-yr period. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder; Jerome L. Heffter; Roland R. Draxler

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the ...

Peter Lynch

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polguère

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Forecast U.S. Distillate Stocks  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA is not projecting a large recovery over the summer, but because refineries are forecast to run at high utilization rates, they may produce more distillate than expected and...

459

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now...

460

Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided ...

Paul J. Roebber

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasts quadrillion btu" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This ...

Anne C. Steinemann

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

An Objective Basis for Forecasting Tornado Intensity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Although violent tornadoes comprise only 2.3% of tornado occurrences in the United States, they cause 68% of the fatalities attributed to tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Despite these statistics, no attempt is made to forecast or warn of ...

J. R. Colquhoun; D. J. Shepherd

1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

MM5 Contrail Forecasting in Alaska  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is being used for forecasting the atmospheric layers of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) formation. Contrail ...

Martin Stuefer; Xiande Meng; Gerd Wendler

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting Resource Supply from Scarcity Rent Data Speaker(s): Larry Dale Date: December 18, 2000 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint of Contact: Diana Morris This talk...

469

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

470

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three ...

Ross Keith

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting: A Historical Perspective  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Techniques that have evolved during the hundred years that scientific severe thunderstorm forecasts have been prepared are reviewed. The early empirical rules developed by Finley, Showalter and Fulks, Fawbush, Miller and Starrett, and others have ...

Joseph T. Schaefer

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts via Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing of numerical model output can improve forecast quality, especially when model output is combined with surface observations. In this article, the development of nonlinear postprocessors for the prediction of ceiling and ...

Caren Marzban; Stephen Leyton; Brad Colman

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

475

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

477

Forecasting the demand for commercial telecommunications satellites  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper summarizes the key elements of a forecast methodology for predicting demand for commercial satellite services and the resulting demand for satellite hardware and launches. The paper discusses the characterization of satellite services into more than a dozen applications (including emerging satellite Internet applications) used by Futron Corporation in its forecasts. The paper discusses the relationship between demand for satellite services and demand for satellite hardware

Carissa Bryce Christensen; Carie A. Mullins; Linda A. Williams

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Controlling inventory by improving demand forecasting within the alcoholic beverage industry : a case study.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis explores how combing statistical demand forecasting methods and causal forecasting methods with judgmental forecasts via a Sales and Operation Planning process can improve… (more)

Deng, Xiaomu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

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481

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

482

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

483

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast.................................................................................. 19 Forecasting Commercial Floor Space Requirements

484

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Berk, Richard; He, Yan; Sorenson, Susan B.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

econ. WEATHER AND FORECASTING Environmental decisions (1993seasonal, and WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 spatialfor details. WEATHER AND FORECASTING V OLUME 19 T ABLE 2.

Simpson, James J; Dettinger, M D; Gehrke, F; McIntire, T J; Hufford, G L

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticdevelop a state-of-the- art forecasting tool to predict suchto be used solely for forecasting. Whether these perceptions

Richard Berk; Yan He; Susan B. Sorenson

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surface slope distributions for x-ray optics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Reliable before-fabrication forecasting of expected surfacefor highly reliable forecasting of the expected surfaceaccuracy of this type of forecasting by comparing the power

Yashchuk, Yekaterina V.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Berk, Richard; Sorenson, Susan B.; He, Yan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble modelSutcliffe (1970), River flow forecasting through conceptuala Distributed Flood Forecasting Model with Input Uncertainty

Li, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Maintaining the Role of Humans in the Forecast Process: Analyzing the Psyche of Expert Forecasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2–3 August 2005 at the American Meteorological Society's Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Washington, D.C. The forum consisted of three sessions. ...

Neil A. Stuart; David M. Schultz; Gary Klein

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Automated on-line determination of PPB levels of sodium and potassium in low-Btu coal gas and fluidized bed combustor exhaust by atomic emission spectrometry  

SciTech Connect

The Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC), US Department of Energy, is involved in the development of processes and equipment for production of low-Btu gas from coal and for fluidized bed combustion of coal. The ultimate objective is large scale production of electricity using high temperature gas turbines. Such turbines, however, are susceptible to accelerated corrosion and self-destruction when relatively low concentrations of sodium and potassium are present in the driving gas streams. Knowledge and control of the concentrations of those elements, at part per billion levels, are critical to the success of both the gas cleanup procedures that are being investigated and the overall energy conversion processes. This presentation describes instrumentation and procedures developed at the Ames Laboratory for application to the problems outlined above and results that have been obtained so far at METC. The first Ames instruments, which feature an automated, dual channel flame atomic emission spectrometer, perform the sodium and potassium determinations simultaneously, repetitively, and automatically every two to three minutes by atomizing and exciting a fraction of the subject gas sample stream in either an oxyhydrogen flame or a nitrous oxide-acetylene flame. The analytical results are printed and can be transmitted simultaneously to a process control center.

Haas, W.J. Jr.; Eckels, D.E.; Kniseley, R.N.; Fassel, V.A.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (Early Release)-Energy-Energy Consumption  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Consumption Consumption Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (Early Release) Energy Consumption Total primary energy consumption in the AEO2008 reference case increases at an average rate of 0.9 percent per year, from 100.0 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 123.8 quadrillion Btu in 2030—7.4 quadrillion Btu less than in the AEO2007 reference case. In 2030, the levels of consumption projected for liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal are all lower in the AEO2008 reference case than in the AEO2007 reference case. Among the most important factors resulting in lower total energy demand in the AEO2008 reference case are lower economic growth, higher energy prices, greater use of more efficient appliances, and slower growth in energy-intensive industries. Figure 2. Delivered energy consumption by sector, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

496

Word Pro - Untitled1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Primary Energy Production (Quadrillion Btu) Total, 1973-2012 Total, Monthly By Source, 1973-2012 By Source, Monthly Total, January-April By Source, April 2013 a Natural gas plant...

497

EIA - 2010 International Energy Outlook  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analyses> International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights Analyses> International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights International Energy Outlook 2010 - Highlights print version PDF Logo World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 in the Reference case. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries increases by 84 percent, compared with an increase of 14 percent in OECD countries. In the IEO2010 Reference case, which does not include prospective legislation or policies, world marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035. Total world energy use rises from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 590 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 1). Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption, 2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu) Chart data

498

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Consumption by Primary Fuel Consumption by Primary Fuel Total primary energy consumption, which was 101.4 quadrillion Btu in 2007, grows by 10 percent in the AEO2012 Reference case, from 98.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 108.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035-6 quadrillion Btu less than the AEO2011 projection for 2035. The fossil fuel share of energy consumption falls from 83 percent of total U.S. energy demand in 2010 to 77 percent in 2035. Biofuel consumption has been growing and is expected to continue to grow over the projection period. However, the projected increase would present challenges, particularly for volumes of ethanol beyond the saturation level of the E10 gasoline pool. Those additional volumes are likely to be slower in reaching the market, as infrastructure and consumer demand adjust. In

499

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by Sector Energy Consumption by Sector Transportation figure data Delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector remains relatively constant at about 27 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case (Figure 6). Energy consumption by LDVs (including commercial light trucks) declines in the Reference case, from 16.1 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to incorporation of the model year 2017 to 2025 GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs. Despite the projected increase in LDV miles traveled, energy consumption for LDVs further decreases after 2025, to 13.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035, as a result of fuel economy improvements achieved through stock turnover as older, less efficient vehicles are replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Beyond 2035, LDV energy demand begins to level off

500

Total Energy - Data - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Flow, (Quadrillion Btu) Total Energy Flow, (Quadrillion Btu) Total Energy Flow diagram image Footnotes: 1 Includes lease condensate. 2 Natural gas plant liquids. 3 Conventional hydroelectric power, biomass, geothermal, solar/photovoltaic, and wind. 4 Crude oil and petroleum products. Includes imports into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 5 Natural gas, coal, coal coke, biofuels, and electricity. 6 Adjustments, losses, and unaccounted for. 7 Natural gas only; excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 8 Petroleum products, including natural gas plant liquids, and crude oil burned as fuel. 9 Includes 0.01 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 10 Includes 0.13 quadrillion Btu of electricity net imports. 11 Total energy consumption, which is the sum of primary energy consumption, electricity retail sales, and electrical system energy losses.