National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasts diagnostic analyses

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  2. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  3. Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NIF User Portal Experimental Capabilities NIF User Group Bylaws Executive Board NIF Calendar Target Shot Metrics Call for Proposals 2014 Awarded Campaigns 2015 Awarded Campaigns Conflict of Interest Policy Jupiter Laser Facility home / for users / experimental capabilities Diagnostics Plans for NIF diagnostics began with the Nova Technical Contract in the mid-1990s. At that time, the Joint Central Diagnostic Team was formed to coordinate efforts, working with their home laboratories, to develop

  4. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  5. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,143 -0.3% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.96 ...

  6. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  8. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  9. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  10. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  11. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. December 22, 2014 Using Wikipedia to forecast disease Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505) 667-0471 Email "A global disease-forecasting system will improve

  12. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  13. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  14. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  16. Plasma diagnostic reflectometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, B.I.; Afeyan, B.B.; Garrison, J.C.; Kaiser, T.B.; Luhmann, N.C. Jr.; Domier, C.W.; Chou, A.E.; Baang, S.

    1996-02-26

    Theoretical and experimental studies of plasma diagnostic reflectometry have been undertaken as a collaborative research project between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of California Department of Applied Science Plasma Diagnostics Group under the auspices of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL. Theoretical analyses have explored the basic principles of reflectometry to understand its limitations, to address specific gaps in the understanding of reflectometry measurements in laboratory experiments, and to explore extensions of reflectometry such as ultra-short-pulse reflectometry. The theory has supported basic laboratory reflectometry experiments where reflectometry measurements can be corroborated by independent diagnostic measurements.

  17. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  18. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies ...

  19. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  20. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  1. MJO Simulation Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waliser, D; Sperber, K; Hendon, H; Kim, D; Maloney, E; Wheeler, M; Weickmann, K; Zhang, C; Donner, L; Gottschalck, J; Higgins, W; Kang, I; Legler, D; Moncrieff, M; Schubert, S; Stern, W; Vitart, F; Wang, B; Wang, W; Woolnough, S

    2008-06-02

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) interacts with, and influences, a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, mid-latitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in our climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multi-model comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, due to the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the US CLIVAR MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation, to more sophisticated space-time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life-cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

  2. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  3. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement ...

  4. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  5. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  6. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. File Acquisition-Forecast-2016-05-06.xlsx More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Small Business Program Manager Directory

  7. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  8. Mode Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mode Analyses of Gyrokinetic Simulations of Plasma Microturbulence by David R. Hatch A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Physics) at The University of Wisconsin - Madison 2010 c Copyright by David R. Hatch 2010 All Rights Reserved i For Jen and Owen ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Paul Terry, who provided me with a research topic which I have found engaging and challenging, and has also offered an ideal

  9. Particle Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Diagnostics - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project ...

  11. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. ... means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. ...

  12. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  13. Diagnostic compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burch, W.M.

    1981-07-28

    The invention discloses diagnostic compositions for use in obtaining images of a patient's lungs. The basic components of the composition of the invention are sodium pertechnetate which is radioactive and ethanol. This composition may be combusted and the resulting products cooled or alternatively the composition may be inserted into a pressure vessel with an aerosol. In both cases a gas like mixture results. A particular advantage is that a patient is able to breath the mixture of the invention in a normal way and does not need to undergo any training in inhalation.

  14. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  15. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  17. Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CDE Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering We support stockpile manufacturing, surveillance, ... for nuclear safeguard monitoring The Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering (C-CDE) ...

  18. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  19. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    NOAA also will provide advanced satellite products. INNOVATIONS NOAA is providing numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling with new information that will help solar forecasts. ...

  20. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Management Tools and Best Practices Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices Development ...

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  2. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  3. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  4. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  5. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  6. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  7. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ... Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits ...

  9. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio ...

  10. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar ...

  11. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  12. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  13. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  15. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  17. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  18. On-line diagnostic system for power generators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skormin, V.A.; Goodenough, G.S.; Huber, R.K.

    1996-12-31

    A novel approach to diagnostics of a power generator is developed. It utilizes readily available data acquired by the existing computer-based monitoring/control system. Diagnostic procedures detect various trends in the generator data and interpret these trends in the generator data and interpret these trends as changes in the generator performance caused by incipient failures. Results of trend analyses, subjected to statistical validation, facilitate failure prediction and identification thus providing the justification for service when needed. The procedures are incorporated in a diagnostic system implemented in a PC interfaced with the existing VAX-based process monitoring and control system. The diagnostic system provides graphical display of the diagnostic messages.

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Research Staff NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation through NREL's Power Systems Engineering Center. Photo not available Linda Crow - Administrative Associate B.S. Environmental Studies, The Evergreen State College Linda currently works for the Resource Assessment and Forecasting group as their administrative support. She has worked with scientists at the Office of Science at the Air Force Academy and at

  20. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  1. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  2. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  3. On-board Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    On-board Diagnostics for Big Data J. Zurawski , S. Balasubramanian , A. Brown , E. Kissel , A. Lake , M. Swany , B. Tierney and M. Zekauskas ...

  4. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  5. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  6. Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartlein, R.A.; Hampton, R.N.

    2010-12-30

    This report summarizes an extensive effort made to understand how to effectively use the various diagnostic technologies to establish the condition of medium voltage underground cable circuits. These circuits make up an extensive portion of the electric delivery infrastructure in the United States. Much of this infrastructure is old and experiencing unacceptable failure rates. By deploying efficient diagnostic testing programs, electric utilities can replace or repair circuits that are about to fail, providing an optimal approach to improving electric system reliability. This is an intrinsically complex topic. Underground cable systems are not homogeneous. Cable circuits often contain multiple branches with different cable designs and a range of insulation materials. In addition, each insulation material ages differently as a function of time, temperature and operating environment. To complicate matters further, there are a wide variety of diagnostic technologies available for assessing the condition of cable circuits with a diversity of claims about the effectiveness of each approach. As a result, the benefits of deploying cable diagnostic testing programs have been difficult to establish, leading many utilities to avoid the their use altogether. This project was designed to help address these issues. The information provided is the result of a collaborative effort between Georgia Tech NEETRAC staff, Georgia Tech academic faculty, electric utility industry participants, as well as cable system diagnostic testing service providers and test equipment providers. Report topics include: •How cable systems age and fail, •The various technologies available for detecting potential failure sites, •The advantages and disadvantages of different diagnostic technologies, •Different approaches for utilities to employ cable system diagnostics. The primary deliverables of this project are this report, a Cable Diagnostic Handbook (a subset of this report) and an online knowledge based system (KBS) that helps utilities select the most effective diagnostic technologies for a given cable circuit and circuit conditions.

  7. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  10. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  11. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  12. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of

  13. Systems and Industry Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    systems and industry analyses Go to the NETL Gasification Systems Program's Systems and Industry Analyses Studies Technology & Cost/Performance Studies NETL Gasification Systems Program's Systems and Industry Analyses Studies provide invaluable information, and help to ensure that the technologies being developed are the best ones to develop. System studies are often used to compare competing technologies, determine the best way to integrate a technology with other technologies, and predict

  14. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  15. X-Ray Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    X-Ray Diagnostics X-Ray Diagnostics Maintenance of existing devices and development of advanced concepts Contact John Oertel (505) 665-3246 Email Hot, dense matter produced by intense laser interaction with a solid target often produces x-rays with energies from 100 eV to those exceeding 100 keV. A suite of diagnostics and methods have been deployed at Trident to diagnose the x-ray emission from laser-matter interaction experiments, or to use the x-rays as a probe of dense matter. These

  16. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Preprint Jie Zhang 1 , Bri-Mathias Hodge 1 , Siyuan Lu 2 , Hendrik F. Hamann 2 , Brad Lehman 3 , Joseph Simmons 4 , Edwin Campos 5 , and Venkat Banunarayanan 6 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 IBM TJ Watson Research Center 3 Northeastern University 4 University of Arizona 5 Argonne National Laboratory 6 U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Denver,

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  18. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Campaign Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models Campaigns...

  19. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  20. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  1. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  2. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  4. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  6. Heterodyne laser diagnostic system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Globig, Michael A.; Johnson, Michael A.; Wyeth, Richard W.

    1990-01-01

    The heterodyne laser diagnostic system includes, in one embodiment, an average power pulsed laser optical spectrum analyzer for determining the average power of the pulsed laser. In another embodiment, the system includes a pulsed laser instantaneous optical frequency measurement for determining the instantaneous optical frequency of the pulsed laser.

  7. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  8. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would

  9. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  10. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Modelling Approach (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the

  11. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Technical Report: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf]

  12. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability | Department of Energy Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability This document is the notice of data availability for Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types. PDF icon

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  14. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, ...

  15. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    These projects aim to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting that could increase penetration of solar power by enabling more certainty in power prediction from solar power ...

  16. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates ...

  17. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  18. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  19. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  1. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  2. BEAM SIMULATIONS USING VIRTUAL DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE DRIVER LINAC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. York; X. Wu; Q. Zhao

    2011-12-21

    End-to-end beam simulations for the driver linac have shown that the design meets the necessary performance requirements including having adequate transverse and longitudinal acceptances. However, to achieve reliable operational performance, the development of appropriate beam diagnostic systems and control room procedures are crucial. With limited R&D funding, beam simulations provide a cost effective tool to evaluate candidate beam diagnostic systems and to provide a critical basis for developing early commissioning and later operational activities. We propose to perform beam dynamic studies and engineering analyses to define the requisite diagnostic systems of the driver linac and through simulation to develop and test commissioning and operational procedures.

  3. DIAGNOSTICS OF BNL ERL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    POZDEYEV,E.; BEN-ZVI, I.; CAMERON, P.; GASSNER, D.; KAYRAN, D.; ET AL.

    2007-06-25

    The ERL Prototype project is currently under development at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. The ERL is expected to demonstrate energy recovery of high-intensity beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps, while preserving the emittance of bunches with a charge of a few nanocoulombs produced by a high-current SRF gun. To successfully accomplish this task the machine will include beam diagnostics that will be used for accurate characterization of the three dimensional beam phase space at the injection and recirculation energies, transverse and longitudinal beam matching, orbit alignment, beam current measurement, and machine protection. This paper outlines requirements on the ERL diagnostics and describes its setup and modes of operation.

  4. Gas-Phase Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Phase Diagnostics - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  5. ITER Diagnostic First Wal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Douglas Loesser, et. al.

    2012-09-21

    The ITER Diagnostic Division is responsible for designing and procuring the First Wall Blankets that are mounted on the vacuum vessel port plugs at both the upper and equatorial levels This paper will discuss the effects of the diagnostic aperture shape and configuration on the coolant circuit design. The DFW design is driven in large part by the need to conform the coolant arrangement to a wide variety of diagnostic apertures combined with the more severe heating conditions at the surface facing the plasma, the first wall. At the first wall, a radiant heat flux of 35W/cm2 combines with approximate peak volumetric heating rates of 8W/cm3 (equatorial ports) and 5W/cm3 (upper ports). Here at the FW, a fast thermal response is desirable and leads to a thin element between the heat flux and coolant. This requirement is opposed by the wish for a thicker FW element to accommodate surface erosion and other off-normal plasma events.

  6. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  7. Laser diagnostics | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser diagnostics Subscribe to RSS - Laser diagnostics The Multi-Point Thomson Scattering (MPTS) diagnostic system has been providing time dependent Te and ne profile measurements ...

  8. Nuclear Diagnostics of ICF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izumi, N; Ierche, R A; Moran, M J; Phillips, T W; Sangster, T C; Schmid, G J; Stoyer, M A; Disdier, L; Bourgade, J L; Rouyer, A; Fisher, R K; Gerggren, R R; Caldwen, S E; Faulkner, J R; Mack, J M; Oertel, J A; Young, C S; Glebov, V Y; Jaanimagi, P A; Meyerhofer, D D; Soures, J M; Stockel, C; Frenje, J A; Li, C K; Petrasso, R D

    2001-10-18

    In inertial confinement fusion (ICF), a high temperature and high density plasma is produced by the spherical implosion of a small capsule. A spherical target capsule is irradiated uniformly by a laser beam (direct irradiation) or x-rays from a high Z enclosure (hohlraum) that is irradiated by laser or ion beams (indirect irradiation). Then high-pressure ablation of the surface causes the fuel to be accelerated inward. Thermonuclear fusion reactions begin in the center region of the capsule as it is heated to sufficient temperature (10 keV) by the converging shocks (hot spot formation). During the stagnation of the imploded shell, the fuel in the shell region is compressed to high density ({approx} 10{sup 3} times solid density in fuel region). When these conditions are established, energy released by the initial nuclear reactions in center ''hot-spot'' region can heat up the cold ''fuel'' region and cause ignition. They are developing advanced nuclear diagnostics for imploding plasmas of the ignition campaign on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The NIF is a 1.8MJ, 192-beam glass laser system that is under construction at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. One objective of the NIF is to demonstrate ignition and gain in an inertial confinement fusion plasma. Extreme physical conditions characterize the imploded plasmas on the NIF. First, the thickness of the plasma, expressed by areal density (plasma density times radius), is large, up to {approx} 1 g/cm{sup 2}. Highly penetrating probes such as energetic neutrons, hard x-rays, or {gamma} rays are required to see deep inside the plasma. Second, the implosion time is quite short. The implosion process takes {approx} 20 ns and the duration of the fusion reaction is on the order of 100 picoseconds. To observe the time history of the nuclear reactions, time resolution better than 10 ps is required. Third, the size of the imploded plasma is quite small ({approx} 100 {micro}m). To see the shape of burning region, a spatial resolution of {approx} 5 {micro}m is required for imaging systems. Fourth, the diagnostics operate in a harsh background. In implosion experiments, strong bursts of electromagnetic pulses, x-rays, neutrons, and neutron-induced radioactivity are produced. Therefore the diagnostics have to be designed to survive in these backgrounds. In addition, to prevent materials ablated from diagnostic components close to the target from being deposited on the laser optics, these components are excluded from a zone around the target with a radius in the range of 0.5 m to 5 m. This exclusion zone has a large impact on diagnostic design.

  9. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  10. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  13. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  14. Instrumentation and diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakaishi, C.V.; Bedick, R.C.

    1990-12-01

    This Technology Status Report describes research and accomplishments for the Instrumentation and Diagnostics (I D) Projects within the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Program of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE). Process understanding and control can be improved through the development of advanced instrumentation and diagnostics. The thrust of the I D Projects is to further develop existing measurement and control techniques for application to advanced coal-based technologies. Project highlights are: an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) instrument has been developed to analyze trace elements in gasification and combustion process streams. An in situ two-color Mie scattering technique with LSS can simultaneously measure the size, velocity, and elemental composition of coal particles during combustion. A high-temperature, fluorescence thermometry technique has accurately measured gas temperatures during field testing in combustion and gasification environments. Expert systems have been developed to improve the control of advanced coal-based processes. Capacitance flowmeters were developed to determine the mass flowrate, solid volume fraction, and particle velocities of coal slurries. 32 refs., 9 figs.

  15. NIO1 diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaniol, B. Barbisan, M.; Pasqualotto, R.; Serianni, G.; Cavenago, M.; De Muri, M.; Mimo, A.

    2015-04-08

    The radio frequency ion source NIO1, jointly developed by Consorzio RFX and INFN-LNL, will generate a 60kV-135mA hydrogen negative ion beam, composed of 9 beamlets over an area of about 40 × 40 mm{sup 2}. This experiment will operate in continuous mode and in conditions similar to those foreseen for the larger ion sources of the Neutral Beam Injectors for ITER. The modular design of NIO1 is convenient to address the several still open important issues related to beam extraction, optics, and performance optimization. To this purpose a set of diagnostics is being implemented. Electric and water cooling plant related measurements will allow monitoring current, pressure, flow, and temperature. The plasma in the source will be characterized by emission spectroscopy, cavity ring-down and laser absorption spectroscopy. The accelerated beam will be analyzed with a fast emittance scanner, its intensity profile and divergence with beam emission spectroscopy and visible tomography. The power distribution of the beam on the calorimeter will be monitored by thermocouples and by an infrared camera. This contribution presents the implementation and initial operation of some of these diagnostics in the commissioning phase of the experiment, in particular the cooling water calorimetry and emission spectroscopy.

  16. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  17. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  18. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  19. Sandia Energy - Sensors & Optical Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Optical Diagnostics Home CRF Permalink Gallery CRF Article Chosen by The Journal of Chemical Physics to Commemorate 80th Anniversary CRF, Energy, Facilities, News, News & Events,...

  20. Control and Diagnostics for RTUs

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... (e.g., temperature) Mathematical Models Measurements ... Expensive to measure Use them as inputs to diagnostic tools. ... for RTU that meets DOE Advanced RTU specification * ...

  1. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  2. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  3. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  4. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  5. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR...

  6. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  7. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  8. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average 2.21 per gallon this summer. While that's 17 ...

  9. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  10. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    1) To provide profiles of the horizontal wind to be used to test and validate short-term cloud advection forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical ...

  11. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  12. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    (2007, EE) obtain similar results on a panel of 15 OECD countries, with annual data ... Results Point forecasts of the N.Y. gasoline price 26 Panel (a): daily data Model MSFE ...

  13. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the ... (RIT) that enables grid operators to use wind energy more cost-effectively to serve ...

  14. Energy Analyses | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science & Innovation » Clean Coal » Crosscutting Research » Energy Analyses Energy Analyses The Office of Fossil Energy conducts energy analyses to assess the economics of advanced process concepts in support of near-zero emissions power plants. Environmental Activities. These analyses include potential environmental impacts (e.g., on water quality, air emissions, solid waste disposal, climate change) of fossil fuel use and large-scale deployment of different generations of CCS. Of

  15. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chesapeake Bay (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters

  16. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  17. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  19. Engine combustion and flow diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-31

    This informative publication discusses the application of diagnostic techniques to internal combustion engines. The papers included fall into three broad categories: flow diagnostics, combustion diagnostics, and fuel spray diagnostics. Contents include: controlling combustion in a spark ignition engine by quantitative fuel distribution; a model for converting SI engine flame arrival signals into flame contours; in-cylinder diesel flame imaging compared with numerical computations; ignition and early soot formation in a DI diesel engine using multiple 2-D imaging diagnostics; investigation of diesel sprays using diffraction-based droplet sizing; fuel distribution effects on the combustion of a direct-injection stratified-charge engine; and 2-D measurements of the liquid phase temperature in fuel sprays.

  20. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  1. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  3. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  4. Market Analyses | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Combined Heat & Power Deployment » Market Analyses Market Analyses Need information on the market potential for combined heat and power (CHP) in the U.S.? These assessments and analyses cover a wide range of markets including commercial and institutional buildings and facilities, district energy, and industrial sites. The market potential for CHP at federal sites and in selected states/regions is also examined. Commercial CHP and Bioenergy Systems for Landfills and Wastewater Treatment

  5. Parametric Adaptive Model Based Diagnostics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A model-based adaptive, robust technology is presented for on-board diagnostics of failure of diesel engine emission control devices and ethanol estimation of flex-fuel vehicles.

  6. Magnetic diagnostics for equilibrium reconstructions with eddy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Magnetic diagnostics for equilibrium reconstructions with eddy currents on the lithium tokamak experimenta) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Magnetic diagnostics for...

  7. Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate initiation fundamentals...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate initiation fundamentals in energetic materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate ...

  8. Analysing

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Varying Alpha Theory Debaprasad Maity 1, 2 and Pisin Chen 1, 2, 3 1 Department of Physics and Center for Theoretical Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617,...

  9. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  10. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  11. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  12. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  13. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - X-ray Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    X-ray Diagnostics Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references ARIANE Active Readout in a Neutron Environment (gated x-ray imager) 90-89 (but uses DIM) LLNL ARIANE is a gated x-ray detector measuring x-ray output at yields up to ~1E16 neutrons from TCC. ARIANE uses gated MCP technology adapted to operate in this neutron regime by moving the detector to a position just outside of the target chamber wall. ARIANE is typically used

  14. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  15. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  16. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  17. Non- contacting capacitive diagnostic device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ellison, Timothy

    2005-07-12

    A non-contacting capacitive diagnostic device includes a pulsed light source for producing an electric field in a semiconductor or photovoltaic device or material to be evaluated and a circuit responsive to the electric field. The circuit is not in physical contact with the device or material being evaluated and produces an electrical signal characteristic of the electric field produced in the device or material. The diagnostic device permits quality control and evaluation of semiconductor or photovoltaic device properties in continuous manufacturing processes.

  18. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during

  19. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  20. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Types | Department of Energy Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types More Documents & Publications Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability CX-100584 Categorical Exclusion Determination ISSUANCE

  1. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  2. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  3. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  5. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  6. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  7. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  8. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  9. Drive Diagnostic Filter Wheel Control

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-07-17

    DrD Filter Wheel Control is National Instrument's Labview software that drives a Drive Diagnostic filter wheel. The software can drive the filter wheel between each end limit, detect the positive and negative limit and each home position and post the stepper motot values to an Excel spreadsheet. The software can also be used to cycle the assembly between the end limits.

  10. R&D ERL: Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gassner, D.

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Recovery Linac (ERL) prototype project is currently under development at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. The ERL is expected to demonstrate energy recovery of high intensity beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps, while preserving the emittance of bunches with a charge of a few nanocoulombs produced by a high current SRF gun. To successfully accomplish this task the machine will include beam diagnostics that will be used for accurate characterization of the three dimensional beam phase space at the injection and recirculation energies, transverse and longitudinal beam matching, orbit alignment, beam current measurement, and machine protection. This report outlines requirements on the ERL diagnostics and describes its setup and modes of operation. The BNL Prototype ERL is an R&D effort aimed at reducing risks and costs associated with the proposed RHIC II electron cooler and eRHIC collider. The ERL will serve as a test bed for developing and testing instrumentation and studying physics and technological issues relevant to very high current ERL's. The prototype ERL, mated to a high current SRF gun, is expected to demonstrate production and energy recovery of high intensity, low emittance beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps. To successfully accomplish this task the ERL will include beam diagnostics required to characterize and tune beam parameters, as well as for machine protection. A preliminary diagnostics plan was presented in earlier publications. In this report, we describe the diagnostics presently planned to provide the data needed to meet these goals.

  11. ARM - Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models General...

  12. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  13. Diagnostic techniques used in AVLIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heestand, G.M.; Beeler, R.G.

    1992-12-01

    This is the second part of a general overview talk on the atomic vapor laser isotope separation (AVLIS) process. In this presentation the authors will discuss the diagnostic techniques used to measure key parameters in their atomic vapor including densities, temperature, velocities charge exchange rates and background ionization levels. Although these techniques have been extensively applied to their uranium program they do have applicability to other systems. Relevant data demonstrating these techniques will be shown.

  14. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Nuclear

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references EMP Electromagnetic Power 102-84 LLNL EMP measures the electromagnetic frequency spectrum in the target chamber. C. G. Brown et al., "Analysis of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Measurements in the National Ingition Facility's Target Bay and Chamber." International Fusion Science and Applications (IFSA) Bordeaux, France, September 12, 2011, LLNL-PROC-512731 GRH Time and

  15. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Optical

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Optical Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references FABS Q31B FABS Q36B Full Aperture Backscatter Station 150-236 130-185 LLNL For coherent light sources, most of the light leaving the target is back or forward scattered by stimulated Brillouin or Raman scattering. Particularly for hohlraum targets, the laser energy that is not absorbed comes back into the wedge focus lenses (WFLs) and is measured by FABS on two representative

  16. Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy Nuclear

  17. Diagnostics for Fast Ignition Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacPhee, A; Akli, K; Beg, F; Chen, C; Chen, H; Clarke, R; Hey, D; Freeman, R; Kemp, A; Key, M; King, J; LePape, S; Link, A; Ma, T; Nakamura, N; Offermann, D; Ovchinnikov, V; Patel, P; Phillips, T; Stephens, R; Town, R; Wei, M; VanWoerkom, L; Mackinnon, A

    2008-05-06

    The concept for Electron Fast Ignition Inertial Confinement Fusion demands sufficient laser energy be transferred from the ignitor pulse to the assembled fuel core via {approx}MeV electrons. We have assembled a suite of diagnostics to characterize such transfer. Recent experiments have simultaneously fielded absolutely calibrated extreme ultraviolet multilayer imagers at 68 and 256eV; spherically bent crystal imagers at 4 and 8keV; multi-keV crystal spectrometers; MeV x-ray bremmstrahlung and electron and proton spectrometers (along the same line of sight); nuclear activation samples and a picosecond optical probe based interferometer. These diagnostics allow careful measurement of energy transport and deposition during and following laser-plasma interactions at extremely high intensities in both planar and conical targets. Augmented with accurate on-shot laser focal spot and pre-pulse characterization, these measurements are yielding new insight into energy coupling and are providing critical data for validating numerical PIC and hybrid PIC simulation codes in an area that is crucial for many applications, particularly fast ignition. Novel aspects of these diagnostics and how they are combined to extract quantitative data on ultra high intensity laser plasma interactions are discussed, together with implications for full-scale fast ignition experiments.

  18. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction ! " #" $ % % & # % " " " ' % ' ( ) * + " % ( , - . / 0 / " 0 . * 0 . * . . " 0 References A short model description Sensitivity tests Results Tropospheric humidity # " humidity 1 % 2 % ' 3 " % + 1 % 2 % % 3 % Updraft entrainment ' + % " 3 % 4 # " + %' 5 6)( . % ' 1 % .7

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  20. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  1. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  3. Pawnee Nation Energy Option Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matlock, M.; Kersey, K.; Riding In, C.

    2009-07-31

    In 2003, the Pawnee Nation leadership identified the need for the tribe to comprehensively address its energy issues. During a strategic energy planning workshop a general framework was laid out and the Pawnee Nation Energy Task Force was created to work toward further development of the tribe’s energy vision. The overarching goals of the “first steps” project were to identify the most appropriate focus for its strategic energy initiatives going forward, and to provide information necessary to take the next steps in pursuit of the “best fit” energy options. Based on the request of Pawnee Nation’s Energy Task Force the research team, consisting Tribal personnel and Summit Blue Consulting, focused on a review of renewable energy resource development potential, funding sources and utility organizational along with energy savings options. Elements of the energy demand forecasting and characterization and demand side options review remained in the scope of work, but were only addressed at a high level. Description of Activities Performed Renewable Energy Resource Development Potential The research team reviewed existing data pertaining to the availability of biomass (focusing on woody biomass, agricultural biomass/bio-energy crops, and methane capture), solar, wind and hydropower resources on the Pawnee-owned lands. Using these data, combined with assumptions about costs and revenue streams, the research team performed preliminary feasibility assessments for each resource category. The research team also reviewed available funding resources and made recommendations to Pawnee Nation highlighting those resources with the greatest potential for financially-viable development, both in the near-term and over a longer time horizon. Energy Efficiency Options While this was not a major focus of the project, the research team highlighted common strategies for reducing energy use in buildings. The team also discussed the benefits of adopting a building energy code and introduced two model energy codes Pawnee Nation should consider for adoption. Summary of Current and Expected Future Electricity Usage The research team provided a summary overview of electricity usage patterns in current buildings and included discussion of known plans for new construction. Utility Options Review Pawnee Nation electric utility options were analyzed through a four-phase process, which included: 1) summarizing the relevant utility background information; 2) gathering relevant utility assessment data; 3) developing a set of realistic Pawnee electric utility service options, and 4) analyzing the various Pawnee electric utility service options for the Pawnee Energy Team’s consideration. III. Findings and Recommendations Due to a lack of financial incentives for renewable energy, particularly at the state level, combined mediocre renewable energy resources, renewable energy development opportunities are limited for Pawnee Nation. However, near-term potential exists for development of solar hot water at the gym, and an exterior wood-fired boiler system at the tribe’s main administrative building. Pawnee Nation should also explore options for developing LFGTE resources in collaboration with the City of Pawnee. Significant potential may also exist for development of bio-energy resources within the next decade. Pawnee Nation representatives should closely monitor market developments in the bio-energy industry, establish contacts with research institutions with which the tribe could potentially partner in grant-funded research initiatives. In addition, a substantial effort by the Kaw and Cherokee tribes is underway to pursue wind development at the Chilocco School Site in northern Oklahoma where Pawnee is a joint landowner. Pawnee Nation representatives should become actively involved in these development discussions and should explore the potential for joint investment in wind development at the Chilocco site.

  4. PEVELOPMENT OF FLUORESCENCE LIFETIME DIAGNOSTIC

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    PEVELOPMENT OF FLUORESCENCE LIFETIME DIAGNOSTIC w I Project Accomplishments Summary (Attachment I) CRADA NO. TSB-1449-97 Date: U 1 8 1 9 8 Revision: 1 A . Parties The project is a relationship between the Lawrence Livennore National Laboratoq (LLNL) and Optiphase, Inc. University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 7000 East Avenue, L-399 Livermore, CA 94550 Optiphase, h c 7652 Haskell Ave. Van Nuys, CA 91406 Technical Contact - D r . Pepe Davis (8 18)782-0997ext 1 12 B .

  5. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  6. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  7. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  10. SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining SQUID-Based ... Research Org: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Sponsoring Org: LDRD Country of ...

  11. Parabola Alignment Diagnostic - Laboratory for Laser Energetics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Parabola Alignment Diagnostic - Laboratory for Laser Energetics Laboratory for Laser Energetics Logo Search Home Around the Lab Past Issues Past Quick Shots About Office of the ...

  12. SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Cancer Diagnostics: Combining SQUID-Based Ultra-Low Field MRI and Superparamagnetic Relaxometry Citation Details In-Document Search Title: SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer ...

  13. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Documents: ARCGIS Shape...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ARCGIS Shape File, all Countries Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Documents: ARCGIS Shape File, all Countries...

  14. Diagnostics - Rotating Wall Machine - UW Plasma Physics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    all diagnostics and feedthroughs must ultimately enter from either end of the machine. ... All signals are integrated prior to digitization by Sterling Scientific analog ...

  15. Siting analyses for existing facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ford, K.; Mannan, M. [RMT/Jones and Neuse, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    1996-08-01

    The term {open_quotes}facility siting{close_quotes} refers to the spacial relationships between process units, process equipment within units, and the location of buildings relative to process equipment. Facility siting is an important consideration for the safe operation of manufacturing facilities. Paragraph (d) of the Process Safety Management (PSM) rule (29 CFR 1910.119) requires employers to document the codes and standards used for designing process equipment. This documentation includes facility siting. The regulation also requires employers to document that the design of the facility complies with recognized and generally accepted good engineering practices. In addition, paragraph (e) of the PSM regulation requires that facility siting be evaluated during Process Hazard Analyses. Facility siting issues may also need to be considered in emergency planning and response which are required under paragraph (n) of the PSM rule. This paper will demonstrate, by utilizing an example, one technique for evaluating whether buildings could be affected by a catastrophic incident and for determining if these buildings should be included in the PSM programs developed at the facility such as Process Hazard Analysis and Mechanical Integrity. In addition, this example will illustrate a methodology for determining if the buildings are designed and located in accordance with good engineering practice and industry standards.

  16. Photovoltaics: Life-cycle Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fthenakis V. M.; Kim, H.C.

    2009-10-02

    Life-cycle analysis is an invaluable tool for investigating the environmental profile of a product or technology from cradle to grave. Such life-cycle analyses of energy technologies are essential, especially as material and energy flows are often interwoven, and divergent emissions into the environment may occur at different life-cycle-stages. This approach is well exemplified by our description of material and energy flows in four commercial PV technologies, i.e., mono-crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, ribbon-silicon, and cadmium telluride. The same life-cycle approach is applied to the balance of system that supports flat, fixed PV modules during operation. We also discuss the life-cycle environmental metrics for a concentration PV system with a tracker and lenses to capture more sunlight per cell area than the flat, fixed system but requires large auxiliary components. Select life-cycle risk indicators for PV, i.e., fatalities, injures, and maximum consequences are evaluated in a comparative context with other electricity-generation pathways.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  1. Pawnee Nation Energy Option Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matlock, M.; Kersey, K.; Riding In, C.

    2009-07-21

    Pawnee Nation of Oklahoma Energy Option Analyses In 2003, the Pawnee Nation leadership identified the need for the tribe to comprehensively address its energy issues. During a strategic energy planning workshop a general framework was laid out and the Pawnee Nation Energy Task Force was created to work toward further development of the tribe’s energy vision. The overarching goals of the “first steps” project were to identify the most appropriate focus for its strategic energy initiatives going forward, and to provide information necessary to take the next steps in pursuit of the “best fit” energy options. Description of Activities Performed The research team reviewed existing data pertaining to the availability of biomass (focusing on woody biomass, agricultural biomass/bio-energy crops, and methane capture), solar, wind and hydropower resources on the Pawnee-owned lands. Using these data, combined with assumptions about costs and revenue streams, the research team performed preliminary feasibility assessments for each resource category. The research team also reviewed available funding resources and made recommendations to Pawnee Nation highlighting those resources with the greatest potential for financially-viable development, both in the near-term and over a longer time horizon. Findings and Recommendations Due to a lack of financial incentives for renewable energy, particularly at the state level, combined mediocre renewable energy resources, renewable energy development opportunities are limited for Pawnee Nation. However, near-term potential exists for development of solar hot water at the gym, and an exterior wood-fired boiler system at the tribe’s main administrative building. Pawnee Nation should also explore options for developing LFGTE resources in collaboration with the City of Pawnee. Significant potential may also exist for development of bio-energy resources within the next decade. Pawnee Nation representatives should closely monitor market developments in the bio-energy industry, establish contacts with research institutions with which the tribe could potentially partner in grant-funded research initiatives. In addition, a substantial effort by the Kaw and Cherokee tribes is underway to pursue wind development at the Chilocco School Site in northern Oklahoma where Pawnee is a joint landowner. Pawnee Nation representatives should become actively involved in these development discussions and should explore the potential for joint investment in wind development at the Chilocco site. Financial incentives for project development are generally structured to provide tribes with access to conventional financing mechanisms. Grant funding for project construction is currently difficult to obtain. Substantial new opportunities for bio-fuel development may exist in the next few years with passage of the 2007 Farm Bill, and through opportunities made available through Oklahoma’s new Bio-energy Center. A review of potential alternatives to Pawnee Nation’s current electricity supply scenario revealed that a range of options could be viable. These include the following scenarios: business as usual, alternative supply, negotiate lower rates with City of Pawnee, focus on reducing energy usage, develop electric utility organization. Under any circumstances, Pawnee Nation should purse strategies to reduce energy usage, as this is the simplest means of reducing electric costs and environmental impacts. The research team also recommends that Pawnee Nation initiate some focused discussions with the City of Pawnee, with GRDA, and with IEC to discuss its wholesale supply purchase options. These discussions will better inform the Pawnee Energy Team of the specific pros and cons of its wholesale power supply options, and will assist the Team’s broader decision-making on utility-related issues. The ultimate path chosen by Pawnee Nation will depend on further consideration of priorities and potential barriers by Pawnee Nation’s Energy Team.

  2. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  3. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  5. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  6. Diagnostics Specialized Development Ref. IO/16/CFT/70000227

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Call for Nomination Diagnostics Specialized Development Ref. IO/16/CFT/70000227 Purpose The purpose of this Contract is to provide specialized development services for many different Diagnostics. Most of the Diagnostics are the scope of the Domestic Agencies (DAs). About 30% of the Diagnostic scope is however completely IO scope. A large variety of Diagnostics techniques are covered by this Contract. Background The Diagnostics System provides accurate measurements of plasma behavior and

  7. Princeton Plasma Physics Lab - Laser diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    high-resolution-diagnostic-system-national-ignition-facility

  8. Plasma diagnostics | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    as plasmas. Graduate students from two British universities install a critical new diagnostic on NSTX-U A system of antennas similar to those that astrophysicists use to study...

  9. NREL Develops Diagnostic Test Cases To Improve Building Energy...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Develops Diagnostic Test Cases To Improve Building Energy Simulation Programs The National ... research groups developed a set of diagnostic test cases for building energy simulations. ...

  10. Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock initiation in...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock initiation in energetic materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock ...

  11. In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation in electrodes In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation in electrodes 2011 DOE Hydrogen ...

  12. Diagnostic and Prognostic Analysis of Battery Performance & Aging...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Diagnostic and Prognostic Analysis of Battery Performance & Aging based on Kinetic and ... More Documents & Publications Diagnostic Testing and Analysis Toward Understanding Aging ...

  13. Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal ...

  14. Building America Expert Meeting: Summary for Diagnostic and Performanc...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Summary for Diagnostic and Performance Feedback for Residential Space Conditioning System Equipment Building America Expert Meeting: Summary for Diagnostic and Performance Feedback ...

  15. Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX A linear array of four ...

  16. Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review Presenter: Jim Braun, Purdue University (The ...

  17. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  18. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  19. Practical Diagnostics for Evaluating Residential Commissioning Metrics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wray, Craig; Walker, Iain; Siegel, Jeff; Sherman, Max

    2002-06-11

    In this report, we identify and describe 24 practical diagnostics that are ready now to evaluate residential commissioning metrics, and that we expect to include in the commissioning guide. Our discussion in the main body of this report is limited to existing diagnostics in areas of particular concern with significant interactions: envelope and HVAC systems. These areas include insulation quality, windows, airtightness, envelope moisture, fan and duct system airflows, duct leakage, cooling equipment charge, and combustion appliance backdrafting with spillage. Appendix C describes the 83 other diagnostics that we have examined in the course of this project, but that are not ready or are inappropriate for residential commissioning. Combined with Appendix B, Table 1 in the main body of the report summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of all 107 diagnostics. We first describe what residential commissioning is, its characteristic elements, and how one might structure its process. Our intent in this discussion is to formulate and clarify these issues, but is largely preliminary because such a practice does not yet exist. Subsequent sections of the report describe metrics one can use in residential commissioning, along with the consolidated set of 24 practical diagnostics that the building industry can use now to evaluate them. Where possible, we also discuss the accuracy and usability of diagnostics, based on recent laboratory work and field studies by LBNL staff and others in more than 100 houses. These studies concentrate on evaluating diagnostics in the following four areas: the DeltaQ duct leakage test, air-handler airflow tests, supply and return grille airflow tests, and refrigerant charge tests. Appendix A describes those efforts in detail. In addition, where possible, we identify the costs to purchase diagnostic equipment and the amount of time required to conduct the diagnostics. Table 1 summarizes these data. Individual equipment costs for the 24 practical diagnostics range from a few hundred dollars to many thousands of dollars. The higher costs are associated with infrared thermography and state-of-the-art automated diagnostic systems. Most tests can be performed in one hour or less, using equipment priced toward the lower end of the cost spectrum.

  20. ORISE: Statistical Analyses of Worker Health

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Statistical Analyses Statistical analyses at the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) support ongoing programs involving medical surveillance of workers and other populations, as well as occupational epidemiology and research. ORISE emphasizes insightful and accurate analysis, practical interpretation of results and clear, easily read reports. All analyses are preceded by extensive data scrubbing and verification. ORISE's approach relies on applying appropriate methods of

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Deactivation and Decommissioning

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Civil/Structural Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses - Civil/Structural Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF

  2. Structural and Evolutionary Analyses Show Unique Stabilization...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Structural and Evolutionary Analyses Show Unique Stabilization Strategies in the Type IV Pili of Clostridium difficile Authors: Piepenbrink, Kurt H. ; Maldarelli, Grace A. ; ...

  3. DISPLAYING AND INTERPRETING FLUID INCLUSION STRATIGRAPHY ANALYSES...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    DISPLAYING AND INTERPRETING FLUID INCLUSION STRATIGRAPHY ANALYSES ON MUDLOG GRAPHS Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings:...

  4. Lifecycle Assessments and Sustainability Analyses | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to our research and development efforts. They provide an understanding of the economic, technical, and even global impacts of renewable technologies. These analyses also...

  5. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within...

  6. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  7. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  8. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an...

  9. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  10. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. ...

  11. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  12. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  13. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  14. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  15. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  16. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  17. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  18. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Nuclear Safety Specialist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  19. FAQS Job Task Analyses- DOE Aviation Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  20. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Technical Program Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Weapons Quality Assurance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  2. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Facility Representative

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  3. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Quality Assurance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  4. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Criticality Safety

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  5. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Radiation Protection

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  6. FAQS Job Task Analyses- General Technical Base

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  7. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Chemical Processing

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  8. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Fire Protection Engineering

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  9. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Emergency Management

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  10. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Technical Training

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  11. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Environmental Compliance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  12. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Industrial Hygiene

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  13. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  14. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM Observations (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations (in English; Croatian) Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was

  15. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  16. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  17. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  18. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  20. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  1. Technical Report: Rayleigh Scattering Combustion Diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adams, Wyatt; Hecht, Ethan

    2015-07-29

    A laser Rayleigh scattering (LRS) temperature diagnostic was developed over 8 weeks with the goal of studying oxy-combustion of pulverized coal char in high temperature reaction environments with high concentrations of carbon dioxide. Algorithms were developed to analyze data collected from the optical diagnostic system and convert the information to temperature measurements. When completed, the diagnostic will allow for the kinetic gasification rates of the oxy-combustion reaction to be obtained, which was previously not possible since the high concentrations of high temperature CO2 consumed thermocouples that were used to measure flame temperatures inside the flow reactor where the combustion and gasification reactions occur. These kinetic rates are important for studying oxycombustion processes suitable for application as sustainable energy solutions.

  2. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  3. Dichroic beamsplitter for high energy laser diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    LaFortune, Kai N; Hurd, Randall; Fochs, Scott N; Rotter, Mark D; Hackel, Lloyd

    2011-08-30

    Wavefront control techniques are provided for the alignment and performance optimization of optical devices. A Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor can be used to measure the wavefront distortion and a control system generates feedback error signal to optics inside the device to correct the wavefront. The system can be calibrated with a low-average-power probe laser. An optical element is provided to couple the optical device to a diagnostic/control package in a way that optimizes both the output power of the optical device and the coupling of the probe light into the diagnostics.

  4. SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jakob, Christian

    2008-01-15

    Forcing data, suitable for use with single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs), have been derived from NWP analyses for the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites of Manus Island and Nauru.

  5. Diagnostic techniques for magnetically confined high-temperature plasmas. II. Magnetic and electric measurements, charge-exchange diagnostics, particle-beam diagnostics, and fusion-product measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldston, R.J.

    1982-07-01

    A general overview of the four diagnostic techniques is given. Prospects for each technique are discussed. (MOW)

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  7. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    outcome of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular interest are: 1. Correlated behavior among variables (e.g., changes in dispatch stacks, production costs, or generation by type as a function of forecasting accuracy); 2. The relative reduction in wind curtailment with improved forecasting accuracy; and 3. The value of information (e.g., which subset of

  8. High bandwidth vapor density diagnostic system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Globig, Michael A.; Story, Thomas W.

    1992-01-01

    A high bandwidth vapor density diagnostic system for measuring the density of an atomic vapor during one or more photoionization events. The system translates the measurements from a low frequency region to a high frequency, relatively noise-free region in the spectrum to provide improved signal to noise ratio.

  9. Method and apparatus for holographic wavefront diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toeppen, J.S.

    1995-04-25

    A wavefront diagnostic apparatus has an optic and a measuring system. The optic forms a holographic image in response to a beam of light striking a hologram formed on a surface of the optic. The measuring system detects the position of the array of holographic images and compares the positions of the array of holographic images to a reference holographic image. 3 figs.

  10. Method and apparatus for holographic wavefront diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toeppen, John S.

    1995-01-01

    A wavefront diagnostic apparatus has an optic and a measuring system. The optic forms a holographic image in response to a beam of light striking a hologram formed on a surface of the optic. The measuring system detects the position of the array of holographic images and compares the positions of the array of holographic images to a reference holographic image.

  11. The neutron imaging diagnostic at NIF (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merrill, F. E.; Clark, D. D.; Danly, C. R.; Drury, O. B.; Fatherley, V. E.; Gallegos, R.; Grim, G. P.; Guler, N.; Loomis, E. N.; Martinson, D. D.; Mares, D.; Morley, D. J.; Morgan, G. L.; Oertel, J. A.; Tregillis, I. L.; Volegov, P. L.; Wilde, C. H.; Wilson, D. C.; Bower, D.; Dzenitis, J. M.; and others

    2012-10-15

    A neutron imaging diagnostic has recently been commissioned at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This new system is an important diagnostic tool for inertial fusion studies at the NIF for measuring the size and shape of the burning DT plasma during the ignition stage of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) implosions. The imaging technique utilizes a pinhole neutron aperture, placed between the neutron source and a neutron detector. The detection system measures the two dimensional distribution of neutrons passing through the pinhole. This diagnostic has been designed to collect two images at two times. The long flight path for this diagnostic, 28 m, results in a chromatic separation of the neutrons, allowing the independently timed images to measure the source distribution for two neutron energies. Typically the first image measures the distribution of the 14 MeV neutrons and the second image of the 6-12 MeV neutrons. The combination of these two images has provided data on the size and shape of the burning plasma within the compressed capsule, as well as a measure of the quantity and spatial distribution of the cold fuel surrounding this core.

  12. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  13. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  14. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models includes the characterization of patient-specific response with implications for treatment management and research study design.

  15. Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling Tool Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling Tool This report documents work performed in the ...

  16. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  17. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the "Microbase" value added product (referred to as OBS, within

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  20. Building Diagnostic Market Deployment - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, Srinivas; Gayeski, N.

    2012-04-01

    The work described in this report was done as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and KGS Building LLC (KGS). PNNL and KGS both believe that the widespread adoption of automated fault de4tection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools will result in significant reduction to energy and peak energy consumption. The report provides an introduction, and summary of the various tasks performed under the CRADA. The CRADA project had three major focus areas: 1) Technical Assistance for Whole Building Energy Diagnostician (WBE) Commercialization, 2) Market Transfer of the Outdoor Air/Economizer Diagnostician (OAE), and 3) Development and Deployment of Automated Diagnostics to Improve Large Commercial Building Operations.

  1. Optical mixing as a plasma diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forman, P.R.; Riesenfeld, W.

    1980-03-01

    The nonlinear interaction of electromagnetic waves in a plasma are examined as the basis for a new and useful diagnostic tool. In particular, we consider the Raman-Induced Kerr Effect (RIKE) in a magnetic field-free plasma, and evaluate the characteristics of various laser sources and detecting equipment necessary for the implementation of a sensitive RIKE scattering system. Our conclusion is that the present state of technology permits the design of promising diagnostics systems of this type. Finally, we express reasonable conjectures on the generalization of the effect to magnetoplasmas, in which the measurement could lead to the determination not only of density, but also of the magnitude and direction of the imbedded magnetic field.

  2. Improved optical diagnostics for the NOVA laser

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fernandez, J.C.; Berggren, R.R.; Bradley, K.S.; Hsing, W.W.; Gomez, C.C.; Cobble, J.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper describes three diagnostics for detecting optical scatter from NOVA laser targets. Detecting such scatter can help not only the authors` understanding of plasma instabilities in laser plasmas, but also their efforts at plasma characterization, particularly hohlraum plasmas. These diagnostics are: the Full Aperture Backscatter Station (FABS), presently being built; the Oblique Scatter Array (OSA), just starting operation; and the Axial Imager, also just starting operation. FABS will allow imaging at high resolution of Brillouin and Raman backscatter. The OSA allows a quantitative measurement of Brillouin and Raman scatter in many directions (assuming the target allows the scatter to escape). The axial imager allows high-resolution imaging of Brillouin, Two-Plasmon Decay and Raman scatter emitted towards the East direction, which is along the symmetry axis of the NOVA laser beams.

  3. Improved optical diagnostics for the NOVA laser

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fernandez, J.C.; Berggren, R.R.; Bradley, K.S.; Hsing, W.W.; Gomez, C.C.; Cobble, J.A.; Wilke, M.D. )

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes three diagnostics detecting optical scatter from NOVA laser targets. Detecting such scatter can help to understand instabilities in laser plasmas and to characterize such plasmas, particularly hohlraum plasmas. These diagnostics are the full aperture backscatter station (FABS), presently being built; the oblique scatter array (OSA), just starting operation; and the axial imager, also just starting operation. FABS will allow imaging at high resolution of Brillouin and Raman backscatter. The OSA provides a quantitative measurement of Brillouin and Raman scatter in many directions. The axial imager allows high-resolution imaging of Brillouin, two-plasmon decay and Raman scatter emitted toward the direction of the symmetry axis of the NOVA laser beams.

  4. Automated diagnostic kiosk for diagnosing diseases

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Regan, John Frederick; Birch, James Michael

    2014-02-11

    An automated and autonomous diagnostic apparatus that is capable of dispensing collection vials and collections kits to users interesting in collecting a biological sample and submitting their collected sample contained within a collection vial into the apparatus for automated diagnostic services. The user communicates with the apparatus through a touch-screen monitor. A user is able to enter personnel information into the apparatus including medical history, insurance information, co-payment, and answer a series of questions regarding their illness, which is used to determine the assay most likely to yield a positive result. Remotely-located physicians can communicate with users of the apparatus using video tele-medicine and request specific assays to be performed. The apparatus archives submitted samples for additional testing. Users may receive their assay results electronically. Users may allow the uploading of their diagnoses into a central databank for disease surveillance purposes.

  5. Building Systems Diagnostics and Predictive Maintenance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, Srinivas; Pratt, Robert G.; Braun, J.

    2001-01-01

    There has been an increasing interest in the development of methods and tools for automated fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) of building systems and components in the 1990s. This chapter, written for the CRC Handbook for HVAC&R Engineering, will describe the status of these methods and and methodologies as applied to HVAC&R and building systems and present certain illustrative case studies.

  6. Diagnostic examination of Generation 2 lithium-ion cells and assessment ofperformance degradation mechanisms.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abraham, D. P.; Dees, D. W.; Knuth, J.; Reynolds, E.; Gerald, R.; Hyung,Y.-E.; Belharouak, I.; Stoll, M.; Sammann, E.; MacLaren, S.; Haasch, R.; Twesten,R.; Sardela, M.; Battaglia, V.; Cairns, E.; Kerr, J.; Kerlau, M.; Kostecki, R.; Lei,J.; McCarthy, K.; McLarnon, F.; Reimer, J.; Richardson, T.; Ross, P.; Sloop,S.; Song, X.; Zhuang, V.; Balasubramanian, M.; McBreen, J.; Chung, K.-Y.; Yang, X.Q.; Yoon, W.-S.; Norin, L.

    2005-07-15

    The Advanced Technology Development (ATD) Program is a multilaboratory effort to assist industrial developers of high-power lithium-ion batteries overcome the barriers of cost, calendar life, abuse tolerance, and low-temperature performance so that this technology may be rendered practical for use in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Included in the ATD Program is a comprehensive diagnostics effort conducted by researchers at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The goals of this effort are to identify and characterize processes that limit lithium-ion battery performance and calendar life, and ultimately to describe the specific mechanisms that cause performance degradation. This report is a compilation of the diagnostics effort conducted since spring 2001 to characterize Generation 2 ATD cells and cell components. The report is divided into a main body and appendices. Information on the diagnostic approach, details from individual diagnostic techniques, and details on the phenomenological model used to link the diagnostic data to the loss of 18650-cell electrochemical performance are included in the appendices. The main body of the report includes an overview of the 18650-cell test data, summarizes diagnostic data and modeling information contained in the appendices, and provides an assessment of the various mechanisms that have been postulated to explain performance degradation of the 18650 cells during accelerated aging. This report is intended to serve as a ready reference on ATD Generation 2 18650-cell performance and provide information on the tools for diagnostic examination and relevance of the acquired data. A comprehensive account of our experimental procedures and resulting data may be obtained by consulting the various references listed in the text. We hope that this report will serve as a roadmap for the diagnostic analyses of other lithium-ion technologies being evaluated for HEV applications. It is our hope that the information contained in this report will lead to the development of new lithium-ion cell chemistries and designs that will meet the 15-year cell calendar-life goal established by DOE's FreedomCar and Fuel Partnership.

  7. Longitudinal Diagnostics for Short Electron Beam Bunches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loos, H.; ,

    2010-06-11

    Single-pass free electron lasers require high peak currents from ultra-short electron bunches to reach saturation and an accurate measurement of bunch length and longitudinal bunch profile is necessary to control the bunch compression process from low to high beam energy. The various state-of-the-art diagnostics methods from ps to fs time scales using coherent radiation detection, RF deflection, and other techniques are presented. The use of linear accelerators as drivers for free electron lasers (FEL) and the advent of single-pass (SASE) FELs has driven the development of a wide range of diagnostic techniques for measuring the length and longitudinal distribution of short and ultra-short electron bunches. For SASE FELs the radiation power and the length of the undulator needed to achieve saturation depend strongly on the charge density of the electron beam. In the case of X-ray FELs, this requires the accelerator to produce ultra-high brightness beams with micron size transverse normalized emittances and peak currents of several kA through several stages of magnetic bunch compression. Different longitudinal diagnostics are employed to measure the peak current and bunch profile along these stages. The measurement techniques can be distinguished into different classes. Coherent methods detect the light emitted from the beam by some coherent radiation process (spectroscopic measurement), or directly measure the Coulomb field traveling with the beam (electro-optic). Phase space manipulation techniques map the time coordinate onto a transverse dimension and then use conventional transverse beam diagnostics (transverse deflector, rf zero-phasing). Further methods measure the profile or duration of an incoherent light pulse emitted by the bunch at wavelengths much shorted than the bunch length (streak camera, fluctuation technique) or modulate the electron beam at an optical wavelength and then generate a narrow bandwidth radiation pulse with the longitudinal profile of the beam mapped onto (optical replicator). The operational needs for bunch length measurements to have fast acquisitions, to be used in feedback systems, to distinguish pulse to pulse changes and to be nondestructive or parasitically have resulted into developing many of the diagnostics into single-shot techniques and in the following the main discussion will emphasize them.

  8. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  9. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

    2006-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

  10. Non-traditional ion beam analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, B.L.; Knapp, J.A.; Banks, J.C.; Barbour, J.C.; Walsh, D.S.

    1993-02-01

    Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS), elastic recoil detection (ERD), proton induced x-ray emission (PIXE) and nuclear reaction analysis (NRA) are among the most commonly used, or traditional, ion beam analysis (IBA) techniques. In this review, several adaptations of these IBA techniques are described where either the approach used in the analysis or the application area is clearly non-traditional or unusual. These analyses and/or applications are summarized in this paper.

  11. ARM XDC Datastreams

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Diagnostic Analyses Documentation ECMWFDIAG Instrument External Datastream Descriptions ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Information updated on November 30, 2015, 4:39 pm GMT General Data Description Diagnostic Analyses data are derived from ECMWF model runs in simulated vertical profiles of diagnostic variables at

  12. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  13. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  14. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  15. FAQS Job Task Analyses Form | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Form FAQS Job Task Analyses Form Step 1, Identify and evaluate tasks; Step 2, Identify and evaluate competencies; and Step 3, Evaluate linkage between tasks and competencies. File FAQS Job Task Analyses Form More Documents & Publications FAQS Job Task Analyses - Emergency Management FAQS Job Task Analyses - Environmental Compliance FAQS Job Task Analyses - Chemical Processing

  16. Real time PV manufacturing diagnostic system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kochergin, Vladimir; Crawford, Michael A.

    2015-09-01

    The main obstacle Photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing at present is the higher cost of PV energy compared to that of fossil energy. While solar cell efficiencies continue to make incremental gains these improvements are so far insufficient to drive PV costs down to match that of fossil energy. Improved in-line diagnostics however, has the potential to significantly increase the productivity and reduce cost by improving the yield of the process. On this Phase I/Phase II SBIR project MicroXact developed and demonstrated at CIGS pilot manufacturing line a high-throughput in-line PV manufacturing diagnostic system, which was verified to provide fast and accurate data on the spatial uniformity of thickness, an composition of the thin films comprising the solar cell as the solar cell is processed reel-to-reel. In Phase II project MicroXact developed a stand-alone system prototype and demonstrated the following technical characteristics: 1) ability of real time defect/composition inconsistency detection over 60cm wide web at web speeds up to 3m/minute; 2) Better than 1mm spatial resolution on 60cm wide web; 3) an average better than 20nm spectral resolution resulting in more than sufficient sensitivity to composition imperfections (copper-rich and copper-poor regions were detected). The system was verified to be high vacuum compatible. Phase II results completely validated both technical and economic feasibility of the proposed concept. MicroXact’s solution is an enabling technique for in-line PV manufacturing diagnostics to increase the productivity of PV manufacturing lines and reduce the cost of solar energy, thus reducing the US dependency on foreign oil while simultaneously reducing emission of greenhouse gasses.

  17. Advanced Diagnostics for High Pressure Spray Combustion.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skeen, Scott A.; Manin, Julien Luc; Pickett, Lyle M.

    2014-06-01

    The development of accurate predictive engine simulations requires experimental data to both inform and validate the models, but very limited information is presently available about the chemical structure of high pressure spray flames under engine- relevant conditions. Probing such flames for chemical information using non- intrusive optical methods or intrusive sampling techniques, however, is challenging because of the physical and optical harshness of the environment. This work details two new diagnostics that have been developed and deployed to obtain quantitative species concentrations and soot volume fractions from a high-pressure combusting spray. A high-speed, high-pressure sampling system was developed to extract gaseous species (including soot precursor species) from within the flame for offline analysis by time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A high-speed multi-wavelength optical extinction diagnostic was also developed to quantify transient and quasi-steady soot processes. High-pressure sampling and offline characterization of gas-phase species formed following the pre-burn event was accomplished as well as characterization of gas-phase species present in the lift-off region of a high-pressure n-dodecane spray flame. For the initial samples discussed in this work several species were identified, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH); however, quantitative mole fractions were not determined. Nevertheless, the diagnostic developed here does have this capability. Quantitative, time-resolved measurements of soot extinction were also accomplished and the novel use of multiple incident wavelengths proved valuable toward characterizing changes in soot optical properties within different regions of the spray flame.

  18. TEDANN: Turbine engine diagnostic artificial neural network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kangas, L.J.; Greitzer, F.L.; Illi, O.J. Jr.

    1994-03-17

    The initial focus of TEDANN is on AGT-1500 fuel flow dynamics: that is, fuel flow faults detectable in the signals from the Electronic Control Unit`s (ECU) diagnostic connector. These voltage signals represent the status of the Electro-Mechanical Fuel System (EMFS) in response to ECU commands. The EMFS is a fuel metering device that delivers fuel to the turbine engine under the management of the ECU. The ECU is an analog computer whose fuel flow algorithm is dependent upon throttle position, ambient air and turbine inlet temperatures, and compressor and turbine speeds. Each of these variables has a representative voltage signal available at the ECU`s J1 diagnostic connector, which is accessed via the Automatic Breakout Box (ABOB). The ABOB is a firmware program capable of converting 128 separate analog data signals into digital format. The ECU`s J1 diagnostic connector provides 32 analog signals to the ABOB. The ABOB contains a 128 to 1 multiplexer and an analog-to-digital converter, CP both operated by an 8-bit embedded controller. The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) developed and published the hardware specifications as well as the micro-code for the ABOB Intel EPROM processor and the internal code for the multiplexer driver subroutine. Once the ECU analog readings are converted into a digital format, the data stream will be input directly into TEDANN via the serial RS-232 port of the Contact Test Set (CTS) computer. The CTS computer is an IBM compatible personal computer designed and constructed for tactical use on the battlefield. The CTS has a 50MHz 32-bit Intel 80486DX processor. It has a 200MB hard drive and 8MB RAM. The CTS also has serial, parallel and SCSI interface ports. The CTS will also host a frame-based expert system for diagnosing turbine engine faults (referred to as TED; not shown in Figure 1).

  19. Spectroscopic diagnostics for bacteria in biologic sample

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    El-Sayed, Mostafa A.; El-Sayed, Ivan H.

    2002-01-01

    A method to analyze and diagnose specific bacteria in a biologic sample using spectroscopy is disclosed. The method includes obtaining the spectra of a biologic sample of a non-infected patient for use as a reference, subtracting the reference from the spectra of an infected sample, and comparing the fingerprint regions of the resulting differential spectrum with reference spectra of bacteria in saline. Using this diagnostic technique, specific bacteria can be identified sooner and without culturing, bacteria-specific antibiotics can be prescribed sooner, resulting in decreased likelihood of antibiotic resistance and an overall reduction of medical costs.

  20. Modular initiator with integrated optical diagnostic

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alam, M. Kathleen; Schmitt, Randal L.; Welle, Eric J.; Madden, Sean P.

    2011-05-17

    A slapper detonator which integrally incorporates an optical wavequide structure for determining whether there has been degradation of the explosive in the explosive device that is to be initiated by the detonator. Embodiments of this invention take advantage of the barrel-like character of a typical slapper detonator design. The barrel assembly, being in direct contact with the energetic material, incorporates an optical diagnostic device into the barrel assembly whereby one can monitor the state of the explosive material. Such monitoring can be beneficial because the chemical degradation of the explosive plays an important in achieving proper functioning of a detonator/initiator device.

  1. Web100-based Network Diagnostic Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-03-20

    NDT is a client/server based network diagnostic tool developed to aid in finding network performance and configuration problems. The tool measures data transfer rates between two internet hosts (client and server). It also gathers detailed TCP statistical variable counters supplied by the Web100 modified server and uses these TCP variables to compute the theoretical performance rate between the two internet hosts. It then compares these analytical results with the measured results to determine if performancemore » or configuration problems exist and translates these results into plain text messages to aid users and network operators in resolving reported problems.« less

  2. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  3. Waste Stream Analyses for Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    N. R. Soelberg

    2010-08-01

    A high-level study was performed in Fiscal Year 2009 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) to provide information for a range of nuclear fuel cycle options (Wigeland 2009). At that time, some fuel cycle options could not be adequately evaluated since they were not well defined and lacked sufficient information. As a result, five families of these fuel cycle options are being studied during Fiscal Year 2010 by the Systems Analysis Campaign for the DOE NE Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program. The quality and completeness of data available to date for the fuel cycle options is insufficient to perform quantitative radioactive waste analyses using recommended metrics. This study has been limited thus far to qualitative analyses of waste streams from the candidate fuel cycle options, because quantitative data for wastes from the front end, fuel fabrication, reactor core structure, and used fuel for these options is generally not yet available.

  4. Diagnostics Beamline for the SRF Gun Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    T. Kamps; V. Durr; K. Goldammer; D. Kramer; P. Kuske; J. Kuszynski; D. Lipka; F. Marhauser; T. Quast; D. Richter; U. Lehnert; P. Michel; J. Teichert; P. Evtushenko; I. Will

    2005-08-22

    A superconducting radio-frequency photo electron injector (SRF gun) is currently under construction by a collaboration of BESSY, DESY, FZR and MBI. The project aims at the design and setup of a CW SRF gun including a diagnostics beamline for the ELBE FEL and to address R&D issues on low emittance injectors for future light sources such as the BESSY FEL. Of critical importance for the injector performance is the control of the electron beam parameters. For this reason a compact diagnostics beamline is under development serving a multitude of operation settings ranging from low-charge (77pC), low-emittance (1 mm mrad) mode to high-charge (2.5nC) operation of the gun. For these operation modes beam dynamics simulations are resulting in boundary conditions for the beam instrumentation. Proven and mature technology is projected wherever possible, for example for current and beam position monitoring. The layout of the beam profile and emittance measurement systems is described. For the bunch length, which varies between 5 ps and 50 ps, two schemes using electro-optical sampling and Cherenkov radiation are detailed. The beam energy and energy spread is measured with a 180-degree spectrometer.

  5. NSTX Diagnostics for Fusion Plasma Science Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. Kaita; D. Johnson; L. Roquemore; M. Bitter; F. Levinton; F. Paoletti; D. Stutman; and the NSTX Team

    2001-07-05

    This paper will discuss how plasma science issues are addressed by the diagnostics for the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), the newest large-scale machine in the magnetic confinement fusion (MCF) program. The development of new schemes for plasma confinement involves the interplay of experimental results and theoretical interpretations. A fundamental requirement, for example, is a determination of the equilibria for these configurations. For MCF, this is well established in the solutions of the Grad-Shafranov equation. While it is simple to state its basis in the balance between the kinetic and magnetic pressures, what they are as functions of space and time are often not easy to obtain. Quantities like the plasma pressure and current density are not directly measurable. They are derived from data that are themselves complex products of more basic parameters. The same difficulties apply to the understanding of plasma instabilities. Not only are the needs for spatial and temporal resolution more stringent, but the wave parameters which characterize the instabilities are difficult to resolve. We will show how solutions to the problems of diagnostic design on NSTX, and the physics insight the data analysis provides, benefits both NSTX and the broader scientific community.

  6. Building Diagnostic Market Deployment - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, S.; Gayeski, N.

    2012-04-30

    Operational faults are pervasive across the commercial buildings sector, wasting energy and increasing energy costs by up to about 30% (Mills 2009, Liu et al. 2003, Claridge et al. 2000, Katipamula and Brambley 2008, and Brambley and Katipamula 2009). Automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools provide capabilities essential for detecting and correcting these problems and eliminating the associated energy waste and costs. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Building Technology Program (BTP) has previously invested in developing and testing of such diagnostic tools for whole-building (and major system) energy use, air handlers, chillers, cooling towers, chilled-water distribution systems, and boilers. These diagnostic processes can be used to make the commercial buildings more energy efficient. The work described in this report was done as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and KGS Building LLC (KGS). PNNL and KGS both believe that the widespread adoption of AFDD tools will result in significant reduction to energy and peak energy consumption. The report provides an introduction and summary of the various tasks performed under the CRADA. The CRADA project had three major focus areas: (1) Technical Assistance for Whole Building Energy Diagnostician (WBE) Commercialization, (2) Market Transfer of the Outdoor Air/Economizer Diagnostician (OAE), and (3) Development and Deployment of Automated Diagnostics to Improve Large Commercial Building Operations. PNNL has previously developed two diagnostic tools: (1) whole building energy (WBE) diagnostician and (2) outdoor air/economizer (OAE) diagnostician. WBE diagnostician is currently licensed non-exclusively to one company. As part of this CRADA, PNNL developed implementation documentation and provided technical support to KGS to implement the tool into their software suite, Clockworks. PNNL also provided validation data sets and the WBE software tool to validate the KGS implementation. OAE diagnostician automatically detects and diagnoses problems with outdoor air ventilation and economizer operation for air handling units (AHUs) in commercial buildings using data available from building automation systems (BASs). As part of this CRADA, PNNL developed implementation documentation and provided technical support to KGS to implement the tool into their software suite. PNNL also provided validation data sets and the OAE software tool to validate the KGS implementation. Finally, as part of this CRADA project, PNNL developed new processes to automate parts of the re-tuning process and transfer those process to KGS for integration into their software product. The transfer of DOE-funded technologies will transform the commercial buildings sector by making buildings more energy efficient and also reducing the carbon footprint from the buildings. As part of the CRADA with PNNL, KGS implemented the whole building energy diagnostician, a portion of outdoor air economizer diagnostician and a number of measures that automate the identification of re-tuning measures.

  7. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  8. Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting ...

  9. Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ORION for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ORION for US Fuel Cycle Options Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ...

  10. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Safeguards and Security General Technical...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Security General Technical Base FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a...

  11. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  12. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  13. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  14. Godiva and Juliet Diagnostics CED-1 (IER-176)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scorby, J C

    2011-12-21

    A suite of diagnostics are being proposed for use in the Juliet experiment (IER-128). In order to calibrate and test the diagnostics prior to use, the LLNL calibration facility and Godiva pulsed reactor will be used to provide intense sources of neutrons and gammas. Due to the similarities of the Godiva and Juliet radiation fields, the diagnostics being developed and tested for Juliet can also play an on-going role in diagnostics for Godiva as well as, perhaps, other critical assembly experiments. Similar work is also being conducted for IER-147 for the purpose of characterizing the Godiva radiation field in support of an upcoming international nuclear accident dosimetry exercise. Diagnostics developed and fielded under IER-147 can provide valuable data with respect to the neutron and gamma energy spectrums in the vicinity of Godiva which is relevant to the calibration of Juliet diagnostics.

  15. TRACE ELEMENT ANALYSES OF URANIUM MATERIALS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beals, D; Charles Shick, C

    2008-06-09

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has developed an analytical method to measure many trace elements in a variety of uranium materials at the high part-per-billion (ppb) to low part-per-million (ppm) levels using matrix removal and analysis by quadrapole ICP-MS. Over 35 elements were measured in uranium oxides, acetate, ore and metal. Replicate analyses of samples did provide precise results however none of the materials was certified for trace element content thus no measure of the accuracy could be made. The DOE New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) does provide a Certified Reference Material (CRM) that has provisional values for a series of trace elements. The NBL CRM were purchased and analyzed to determine the accuracy of the method for the analysis of trace elements in uranium oxide. These results are presented and discussed in the following paper.

  16. 2010-12-1-DICE-Diagnostic-Service-Description

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Editor: Joe Metzger Status: DRAFT (v1.0) Date: 2010-12-1 1 General Service Description for DICE Network Diagnostic Services The DICE collaboration network diagnostic service will simplify the process of debugging, isolating, and correcting multi-domain network performance problems. The diagnostic service will allow users to measure network characteristics across multi-domain network paths. The service is designed to support network engineers in situations where a customer is experiencing

  17. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Tools for Physics-Based Model Development. (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms: Tools for Physics-Based Model Development. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms: Tools for Physics-Based Model Development. We present the results of an LDRD project to develop diagnostics to perform fundamental measurements of material properties

  18. Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate initiation fundamentals in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    energetic materials. (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate initiation fundamentals in energetic materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast laser diagnostics to investigate initiation fundamentals in energetic materials. We present the results of a two year early career LDRD project, which has focused on the development of ultrafast diagnostics to measure temperature, pressure and chemical change during the shock

  19. CBEI - Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) for Advanced RTUs

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    diagnostics (FDD) that achieve: 90% diagnosis rate of 10% performance degradation, ... Achieve at least 90% diagnosis rate for performance degradation of 10% or more and a false ...

  20. LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LANL spinoff receives NIH grant LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic device Mesa Tech has been awarded a grant to develop an inexpensive, ...

  1. Diagnostic Studies on Lithium Battery Cells and Cell Components...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Studies on Lithium Battery Cells and Cell Components Diagnostic Studies on Lithium Battery Cells and Cell Components 2012 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle ...

  2. Diagnostic Studies to Improve Abuse Tolerance and the Synthesis...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Synthesis of New Electrolyte Materials Diagnostic Studies to Improve Abuse Tolerance and the Synthesis of New Electrolyte Materials 2009 DOE Hydrogen Program and Vehicle ...

  3. Radioisotopes for Medical Diagnostics and Cancer Therapy at BNL...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Radioisotopes for Medical Diagnostics and Cancer Therapy at BNL Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Applications of Nuclear ...

  4. Target diagnostic system for the national ignition facility (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leeper, R.J.; Chandler, G.A.; Cooper, G.W.; Derzon, M.S.; Fehl, D.L.; Hebron, D.E.; Moats, A.R.; Noack, D.D.; Porter, J.L.; Ruggles, L.E.; Ruiz, C.L.; Torres, J.A.; Cable, M.D.; Bell, P.M.; Clower, C.A.; Hammel, B.A.; Kalantar, D.H.; Karpenko, V.P.; Kauffman, R.L.; Kilkenny, J.D.; Lee, F.D.; Lerche, R.A.; MacGowan, B.J.; Moran, M.J.; Nelson, M.B.; Olson, W.; Orzechowski, T.J.; Phillips, T.W.; Ress, D.; Tietbohl, G.L.; Trebes, J.E.; Bartlett, R.J.; Berggren, R.; Caldwell, S.E.; Chrien, R.E.; Failor, B.H.; Fernandez, J.C.; Hauer, A.; Idzorek, G.; Hockaday, R.G.; Murphy, T.J.; Oertel, J.; Watt, R.; Wilke, M.; Bradley, D.K.; Knauer, J.; Petrasso, R.D.; Li, C.K.

    1997-01-01

    A review of recent progress on the design of a diagnostic system proposed for ignition target experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) will be presented. This diagnostic package contains an extensive suite of optical, x ray, gamma ray, and neutron diagnostics that enable measurements of the performance of both direct and indirect driven NIF targets. The philosophy used in designing all of the diagnostics in the set has emphasized redundant and independent measurement of fundamental physical quantities relevant to the operation of the NIF target. A unique feature of these diagnostics is that they are being designed to be capable of operating in the high radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and debris backgrounds expected on the NIF facility. The diagnostic system proposed can be categorized into three broad areas: laser characterization, hohlraum characterization, and capsule performance diagnostics. The operating principles of a representative instrument from each class of diagnostic employed in this package will be summarized and illustrated with data obtained in recent prototype diagnostic tests. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  5. Combined Reflectivity/imaging Method for Assessing Diagnostic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    with laser treatment to restore the reflectivity of diagnostic mirrors after degradation by plasma deposition. Multiple mirrors, including an aluminum first surface reference ...

  6. Laser Integration Line target diagnostics first results (invited...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and high resolution spectrometers have been fabricated in the frame of a unique industrial contract. Optical pointers are used to align the diagnostics to the target. The...

  7. Application of dynamic displacement current for diagnostics of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    current was used for diagnostics of ionization processes between the ionization wave front and a plane anode. It is demonstrated that during the generation of a...

  8. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    presented here. SRS a nd transient absorption diagnostics are demonstrated on static thin - film samples, and paths forward to dynamic experiments are presented. Sandia...

  9. Hydrogen transport diagnostics by atomic and molecular emission...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Hydrogen transport diagnostics by atomic and molecular emission line profiles simultaneously measured for large helical device Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Hydrogen ...

  10. Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics and Environmental Monitoring. Abstract not provided. Authors: Harper, Jason C. ; Edwards, Thayne L. ; ...

  11. Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics. Abstract not provided. Authors: Harper, Jason C. ; Edwards, Thayne L. ; Polsky, Ronen ; Wheeler, ...

  12. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    for Physics-Based Model Development. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms: Tools for Physics-Based ...

  13. Real Time Diagnostics for Algae-final-sm

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Real-time Monitoring And Diagnostics Detecting pathogens and predators to quickly recover ... Real-time Monitoring With Online Algal Reflectance Monitor System Researchers have ...

  14. COLLOQUIUM: ITER and its Diagnostics - Rising to the Challenge...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    measure the performance and provide the control signals for this device. A diagnostic set will be installed on the ITER machine to provide the measurements necessary to control, ...

  15. Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado.

  16. 3D Diagnostic Of Complex Plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, Edward; Samsonov, Dmitry

    2011-11-29

    This paper reports the development of a three-dimensional(3D) dust particle position diagnostic for complex plasmas. A beam produce by Light Emitting Diodes(LEDs) is formed into horizontal sheet, for the illumination of the particles. The light sheet has a vertical colour gradient across its width, from two opposing colours. The light scattered from the particles is imaged with the camera from above. The horizontal coordinates are measured from the positions on the image. The third coordinate is determined from the colour which represents a position on the gradient of the light sheet. The use of LEDs as a light source reduces a variation in Mie scattered intensity from the particles due to the particle size distribution. The variation would induce a large vertical positional error.

  17. RHIC electron lens test bench diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gassner, D.; Beebe, E.; Fischer, W.; Gu, X.; Hamdi, K.; Hock, J.; Liu, C.; Miller, T.; Pikin, A.; Thieberger, P.

    2011-05-16

    An Electron Lens (E-Lens) system will be installed in RHIC to increase luminosity by counteracting the head-on beam-beam interaction. The proton beam collisions at the RHIC experimental locations will introduce a tune spread due to a difference of tune shifts between small and large amplitude particles. A low energy electron beam will be used to improve luminosity and lifetime of the colliding beams by reducing the betatron tune shift and spread. In preparation for the Electron Lens installation next year, a test bench facility will be used to gain experience with many sub-systems. This paper will discuss the diagnostics related to measuring the electron beam parameters.

  18. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  19. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  20. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  1. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  5. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or

  6. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  7. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  8. doe sc arm 16 025 The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL_formatted

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    5 Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report MP Jensen SE Giangrande MJ Bartholomew April 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

  9. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  10. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  11. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  12. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  13. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  14. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvén waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  15. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  16. Seismic Soil-Structure Interaction Analyses of a Deeply Embedded Model Reactor – SASSI Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nie J.; Braverman J.; Costantino, M.

    2013-10-31

    This report summarizes the SASSI analyses of a deeply embedded reactor model performed by BNL and CJC and Associates, as part of the seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) simulation capability project for the NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) Program of the Department of Energy. The SASSI analyses included three cases: 0.2 g, 0.5 g, and 0.9g, all of which refer to nominal peak accelerations at the top of the bedrock. The analyses utilized the modified subtraction method (MSM) for performing the seismic SSI evaluations. Each case consisted of two analyses: input motion in one horizontal direction (X) and input motion in the vertical direction (Z), both of which utilized the same in-column input motion. Besides providing SASSI results for use in comparison with the time domain SSI results obtained using the DIABLO computer code, this study also leads to the recognition that the frequency-domain method should be modernized so that it can better serve its mission-critical role for analysis and design of nuclear power plants.

  17. Interim Basis for PCB Sampling and Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BANNING, D.L.

    2001-03-20

    This document was developed as an interim basis for sampling and analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and will be used until a formal data quality objective (DQO) document is prepared and approved. On August 31, 2000, the Framework Agreement for Management of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Hanford Tank Waste was signed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) (Ecology et al. 2000). This agreement outlines the management of double shell tank (DST) waste as Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) PCB remediation waste based on a risk-based disposal approval option per Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations 761.61 (c). The agreement calls for ''Quantification of PCBs in DSTs, single shell tanks (SSTs), and incoming waste to ensure that the vitrification plant and other ancillary facilities PCB waste acceptance limits and the requirements of the anticipated risk-based disposal approval are met.'' Waste samples will be analyzed for PCBs to satisfy this requirement. This document describes the DQO process undertaken to assure appropriate data will be collected to support management of PCBs and is presented in a DQO format. The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA QA/G4, Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process (EPA 1994) and the Data Quality Objectives for Sampling and Analyses, HNF-IP-0842, Rev. 1A, Vol. IV, Section 4.16 (Banning 1999).

  18. Interim Basis for PCB Sampling and Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BANNING, D.L.

    2001-01-18

    This document was developed as an interim basis for sampling and analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and will be used until a formal data quality objective (DQO) document is prepared and approved. On August 31, 2000, the Framework Agreement for Management of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Hanford Tank Waste was signed by the US. Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) (Ecology et al. 2000). This agreement outlines the management of double shell tank (DST) waste as Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) PCB remediation waste based on a risk-based disposal approval option per Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations 761.61 (c). The agreement calls for ''Quantification of PCBs in DSTs, single shell tanks (SSTs), and incoming waste to ensure that the vitrification plant and other ancillary facilities PCB waste acceptance limits and the requirements of the anticipated risk-based disposal approval are met.'' Waste samples will be analyzed for PCBs to satisfy this requirement. This document describes the DQO process undertaken to assure appropriate data will be collected to support management of PCBs and is presented in a DQO format. The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA QAlG4, Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process (EPA 1994) and the Data Quality Objectives for Sampling and Analyses, HNF-IP-0842, Rev. 1 A, Vol. IV, Section 4.16 (Banning 1999).

  19. PRECLOSURE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Tsai

    2005-01-12

    Radiological consequence analyses are performed for potential releases from normal operations in surface and subsurface facilities and from Category 1 and Category 2 event sequences during the preclosure period. Surface releases from normal repository operations are primarily from radionuclides released from opening a transportation cask during dry transfer operations of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in Dry Transfer Facility 1 (DTF 1), Dry Transfer Facility 2 (DTF 2), the Canister Handling facility (CHF), or the Fuel Handling Facility (FHF). Subsurface releases from normal repository operations are from resuspension of waste package surface contamination and neutron activation of ventilated air and silica dust from host rock in the emplacement drifts. The purpose of this calculation is to demonstrate that the preclosure performance objectives, specified in 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b), have been met for the proposed design and operations in the geologic repository operations area. Preclosure performance objectives are discussed in Section 6.2.3 and are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.

  20. Activation analyses for different fusion structural alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Attaya, H.; Smith, D.

    1991-12-31

    The leading candidate structural materials, viz., the vanadium alloys, the nickel or the manganese stabilized austenitic steels, and the ferritic steels, are analysed in terms of their induced activation in the TPSS fusion power reactor. The TPSS reactor has 1950 MW fusion power and inboard and outboard average neutron wall loading of 3.75 and 5.35 MW/m{sup 2} respectively. The results shows that, after one year of continuous operation, the vanadium alloys have the least radioactivity at reactor shutdown. The maximum difference between the induced radioactivity in the vanadium alloys and in the other iron-based alloys occurs at about 10 years after reactor shutdown. At this time, the total reactor radioactivity, using the vanadium alloys, is about two orders of magnitude less than the total reactor radioactivity utilizing any other alloy. The difference is even larger in the first wall, the FW-vanadium activation is 3 orders of magnitude less than other alloys` FW activation. 2 refs., 7 figs.

  1. Activation analyses for different fusion structural alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Attaya, H.; Smith, D.

    1991-01-01

    The leading candidate structural materials, viz., the vanadium alloys, the nickel or the manganese stabilized austenitic steels, and the ferritic steels, are analysed in terms of their induced activation in the TPSS fusion power reactor. The TPSS reactor has 1950 MW fusion power and inboard and outboard average neutron wall loading of 3.75 and 5.35 MW/m{sup 2} respectively. The results shows that, after one year of continuous operation, the vanadium alloys have the least radioactivity at reactor shutdown. The maximum difference between the induced radioactivity in the vanadium alloys and in the other iron-based alloys occurs at about 10 years after reactor shutdown. At this time, the total reactor radioactivity, using the vanadium alloys, is about two orders of magnitude less than the total reactor radioactivity utilizing any other alloy. The difference is even larger in the first wall, the FW-vanadium activation is 3 orders of magnitude less than other alloys' FW activation. 2 refs., 7 figs.

  2. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  3. Annex II Technical Specifications Diagnostics Divertor Erosion Monitor

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Diagnostics Divertor Erosion Monitor ITER_D_ QZ29YZ v1.3 ITER_D_QZ29YZ Page 1 of 7 Divertor Erosion Monitor of ITER Diagnostics Components Technical Specifications ITER_D_QZ29YZ Page 2 of 7 Table of Contents 1 PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................3 2 SCOPE .................................................................................................................................3 3 ESTIMATED

  4. Ultrasensitive microanalytical diagnostic methods for rickettsial pathogens

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hatch, A. V.

    2012-03-01

    A strategic CRADA was established between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at Galveston to address pressing needs for US protection against biological weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and emerging infectious diseases. The combination of unique expertise and facilities at UTMB and SNL enabled interdisciplinary research efforts in the development of rapid and accurate diagnostic methods for early detection of trace priority pathogen levels. Outstanding postdoctoral students were also trained at both institutions to help enable the next generation of scientists to tackle the challenging interdisciplinary problems in the area of biodefense and emerging infectious diseases. Novel approaches to diagnostics were developed and the both the speed of assays as well as the detection sensitivity were improved by over an order of magnitude compared to traditional methods. This is a significant step toward more timely and specific detection of dangerous infections. We developed in situ polymerized porous polymer monoliths that can be used as (1) size exclusion elements for capture and processing of rickettsial infected cells from a sample, (2) photopatternable framework for grafting high densities of functionalized antibodies/fluorescent particles using novel monolith chemistry. Grafting affinity reagents specific to rickettsial particles enables rapid, ultra-sensitive assays by overcoming transport limitations of traditional planar assay approaches. We have selectively trapped particles and bacteria at the cell trap and have also detected picomolar mouse IL-6 captured with only 20 minutes total incubation times using the densely patterned monolith framework. As predicted, the monolith exhibits >10x improvements in both capture speed and capture density compared to traditional planar approaches. The most significant advancements as part of this CRADA is the optimization of techniques allowing the detection of <10 rickettsial cells in a whole blood sample. This detection limit is over 2 orders of magnitude more sensitive that previously reported methods and overcomes a key hurdle in ability to sense dangerous infections before they are too late to treat and contain. We also showed that in the new format, cross-reactivity with interfering species is reduced thereby increasing the specificity of such tests. Promising options to treat whole blood and avoid clogging and non-specific fouling of sensors were also developed.

  5. Genome-Facilitated Analyses of Geomicrobial Processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kenneth H. Nealson

    2012-05-02

    This project had the goal(s) of understanding the mechanism(s) of extracellular electron transport (EET) in the microbe Shewanella oneidensis MR-1, and a number of other strains and species in the genus Shewanella. The major accomplishments included sequencing, annotation, and analysis of more than 20 Shewanella genomes. The comparative genomics enabled the beginning of a systems biology approach to this genus. Another major contribution involved the study of gene regulation, primarily in the model organism, MR-1. As part of this work, we took advantage of special facilities at the DOE: e.g., the synchrotron radiation facility at ANL, where we successfully used this system for elemental characterization of single cells in different metabolic states (1). We began work with purified enzymes, and identification of partially purified enzymes, leading to initial characterization of several of the 42 c-type cytochromes from MR-1 (2). As the genome became annotated, we began experiments on transcriptome analysis under different conditions of growth, the first step towards systems biology (3,4). Conductive appendages of Shewanella, called bacterial nanowires were identified and characterized during this work (5, 11, 20,21). For the first time, it was possible to measure the electron transfer rate between single cells and a solid substrate (20), a rate that has been confirmed by several other laboratories. We also showed that MR-1 cells preferentially attach to cells at a given charge, and are not attracted, or even repelled by other charges. The interaction with the charged surfaces begins with a stimulation of motility (called electrokinesis), and eventually leads to attachment and growth. One of the things that genomics allows is the comparative analysis of the various Shewanella strains, which led to several important insights. First, while the genomes predicted that none of the strains looked like they should be able to degrade N-acetyl glucosamine (NAG), the monomer that makes up chitin, virtually all of the strains were in fact capable. This led to the discovery of a great many new genes involved with chitin and NAG metabolism (7). In a similar vein, a detailed study of the sugar utilization pathway revealed a major new insight into the regulation of sugar metabolism in this genus (19). Systems Biology and Comparative Genomics of the shewanellae: Several publications were put together describing the use of comparative genomics for analyses of the group Shewanella, and these were a logical culmination of our genomic-driven research (10,15,18). Eight graduate students received their Ph.D. degrees doing part of the work described here, and four postdoctoral fellows were supported. In addition, approximately 20 undergraduates took part in projects during the grant period.

  6. Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Samples R-15 C-5 SWB and R-16 C-4 Lip Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant ...

  7. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Deactivation and Decommissioning | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy FAQS Job Task Analyses - Deactivation and Decommissioning FAQS Job Task Analyses - Deactivation and Decommissioning FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between

  8. Development plan for an advanced drilling system with real-time diagnostics (Diagnostics-While-Drilling)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    FINGER,JOHN T.; MANSURE,ARTHUR J.; PRAIRIE,MICHAEL R.; GLOWKA,D.A.

    2000-02-01

    This proposal provides the rationale for an advanced system called Diagnostics-while-drilling (DWD) and describes its benefits, preliminary configuration, and essential characteristics. The central concept is a closed data circuit in which downhole sensors collect information and send it to the surface via a high-speed data link, where it is combined with surface measurements and processed through drilling advisory software. The driller then uses this information to adjust the drilling process, sending control signals back downhole with real-time knowledge of their effects on performance. The report presents background of related previous work, and defines a Program Plan for US Department of Energy (DOE), university, and industry cooperation.

  9. Range of Neutronic Parameters for Repository Criticality Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W.J. Anderson

    1999-09-28

    The ''Range of Neutronic Parameters for Repository Criticality Analyses'' technical report contains a summary of the benchmark criticality analyses (including the laboratory critical experiment [LCEs] and the commercial reactor criticals [CRCs]) used to support the validation of the criticality evaluation methods. This report also documents the development of the Critical Limits (CLs) for the repository criticality analyses.

  10. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  11. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  12. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  13. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  14. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  15. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOE/SC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ Bartholomew S Giangrande March 2016 CLIMATE RESEARCH FACILITY DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the U.S. Government. Neither the United States nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,

  16. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  17. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  18. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    introduction in 1992 of an American-made truck with a fully factory-installed/war- ranted liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) engine represents another "Ford first" in the alternative fuel arena. Now the company has introduced an LPG- powered F-700, a medium/heavy- duty truck. According to Tom Steckel, Ford's medium-duty marketing man- ager, Ford's latest sales figures already prove the alternative fuel F-700's popularity. With a little more than 10 months of the model year finished, Ford

  19. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  20. ITER Generic Diagnostic Upper Port Plug Nuclear Heating and Personnel Dose Rate Assesment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell E. Feder and Mahmoud Z. Youssef

    2009-01-28

    Neutronics analysis to find nuclear heating rates and personnel dose rates were conducted in support of the integration of diagnostics in to the ITER Upper Port Plugs. Simplified shielding models of the Visible-Infrared diagnostic and of a large aperture diagnostic were incorporated in to the ITER global CAD model. Results for these systems are representative of typical designs with maximum shielding and a small aperture (Vis-IR) and minimal shielding with a large aperture. The neutronics discrete-ordinates code ATTILA® and SEVERIAN® (the ATTILA parallel processing version) was used. Material properties and the 500 MW D-T volume source were taken from the ITER “Brand Model” MCNP benchmark model. A biased quadrature set equivelant to Sn=32 and a scattering degree of Pn=3 were used along with a 46-neutron and 21-gamma FENDL energy subgrouping. Total nuclear heating (neutron plug gamma heating) in the upper port plugs ranged between 380 and 350 kW for the Vis-IR and Large Aperture cases. The Large Aperture model exhibited lower total heating but much higher peak volumetric heating on the upper port plug structure. Personnel dose rates are calculated in a three step process involving a neutron-only transport calculation, the generation of activation volume sources at pre-defined time steps and finally gamma transport analyses are run for selected time steps. ANSI-ANS 6.1.1 1977 Flux-to-Dose conversion factors were used. Dose rates were evaluated for 1 full year of 500 MW DT operation which is comprised of 3000 1800-second pulses. After one year the machine is shut down for maintenance and personnel are permitted to access the diagnostic interspace after 2-weeks if dose rates are below 100 ?Sv/hr. Dose rates in the Visible-IR diagnostic model after one day of shutdown were 130 ?Sv/hr but fell below the limit to 90 ?Sv/hr 2-weeks later. The Large Aperture style shielding model exhibited higher and more persistent dose rates. After 1-day the dose rate was 230 ?Sv/hr but was still at 120 ?Sv/hr 4-weeks later.

  1. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) Input Coal Analyses and Off-Gass Filter (OGF) Content Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jantzen, Carol M.; Missimer, David M.; Guenther, Chris P.; Shekhawat, Dushyant; VanEssendelft, Dirk T.; Means, Nicholas C.

    2015-04-23

    A full engineering scale Fluidized Bed Steam Reformer (FBSR) system is being used at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) to stabilize acidic Low Activity Waste (LAW) known as Sodium Bearing Waste (SBW). The INTEC facility, known as the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU), underwent an Operational Readiness Review (ORR) and a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) in March 2014. The IWTU began non-radioactive simulant processing in late 2014 and by January, 2015 ; the IWTU had processed 62,000 gallons of simulant. The facility is currently in a planned outage for inspection of the equipment and will resume processing simulated waste feed before commencing to process 900,000 gallons of radioactive SBW. The SBW acidic waste will be made into a granular FBSR product (carbonate based) for disposal in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). In the FBSR process calcined coal is used to create a CO2 fugacity to force the waste species to convert to carbonate species. The quality of the coal, which is a feed input, is important because the reactivity, moisture, and volatiles (C,H,N,O, and S) in the coal impact the reactions and control of the mineralizing process in the primary steam reforming vessel, the Denitration and Mineralizing Reformer (DMR). Too much moisture in the coal can require that additional coal be used. However since moisture in the coal is only a small fraction of the moisture from the fluidizing steam this can be self-correcting. If the coal reactivity or heating value is too low then the coal feedrate needs to be adjusted to achieve the desired heat generation. Too little coal and autothermal heat generation in the DMR cannot be sustained and/or the carbon dioxide fugacity will be too low to create the desired carbonate mineral species. Too much coal and excess S and hydroxide species can form. Excess sulfur from coal that (1) is too rich in sulfur or (2) from overfeeding coal can promote wall scale and contribute to corrosion in process piping and materials, in excessive off-gas absorbent loading, and in undesired process emissions. The ash content of the coal is important as the ash adds to the DMR and other vessel products which affect the final waste product mass and composition. The amount and composition of the ash also affects the reaction kinetics. Thus ash content and composition contributes to the mass balance. In addition, sodium, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and maybe silica and alumina in the ash may contribute to wall-scale formation. Sodium, potassium, and alumina in the ash will be overwhelmed by the sodium, potassium, and alumina from the feed but the impact from the other ash components needs to be quantified. A maximum coal particle size is specified so the feed system does not plug and a minimum particle size is specified to prevent excess elutriation from the DMR to the Process Gas Filter (PGF). A vendor specification was used to procure the calcined coal for IWTU processing. While the vendor supplied a composite analysis for the 22 tons of coal (Appendix A), this study compares independent analyses of the coal performed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Three supersacks a were sampled at three different heights within the sack in order to determine within bag variability and between bag variability of the coal. These analyses were also compared to the vendor’s composite analyses and to the coal specification. These analyses were also compared to historic data on Bestac coal analyses that had been performed at Hazen Research Inc. (HRI) between 2004-2011.

  2. DIAGNOSTICS FOR ION BEAM DRIVEN HIGH ENERGY DENSITY PHYSICS EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bieniosek, F.M.; Henestroza, E.; Lidia, S.; Ni, P.A.

    2010-01-04

    Intense beams of heavy ions are capable of heating volumetric samples of matter to high energy density. Experiments are performed on the resulting warm dense matter (WDM) at the NDCX-I ion beam accelerator. The 0.3 MeV, 30-mA K{sup +} beam from NDCX-I heats foil targets by combined longitudinal and transverse neutralized drift compression of the ion beam. Both the compressed and uncompressed parts of the NDCX-I beam heat targets. The exotic state of matter (WDM) in these experiments requires specialized diagnostic techniques. We have developed a target chamber and fielded target diagnostics including a fast multi-channel optical pyrometer, optical streak camera, laser Doppler-shift interferometer (VISAR), beam transmission diagnostics, and high-speed gated cameras. We also present plans and opportunities for diagnostic development and a new target chamber for NDCX-II.

  3. Hydroxyalkyl phosphine compounds for use as diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceuticals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, K.V.; Singh, P.R.; Reddy, V.S.; Katti, K.K.; Volkert, W.A.; Ketring, A.R.

    1999-03-02

    This research discloses a compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises a functionalized hydroxyalkyl phosphine ligand and a metal combined with the ligand. 16 figs.

  4. Fusion diagnostic developed at PPPL sheds light on plasma behavior...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Fusion diagnostic developed at PPPL sheds light on plasma behavior at EAST By Kitta ... (PPPL) has enabled a research team at a fusion energy experiment in China to observe--in ...

  5. Advanced Diagnostics and Control for Furnaces, Fired Heaters and Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-06-01

    This factsheet describes a research project whose objective is to develop and implement technologies that address advanced combustion diagnostics and rapid Btu measurements of fuels. These are the fundamental weaknesses associated with the combustion processes of a furnace.

  6. Hydroxyalkyl phosphine compounds for use as diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceuticals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, Kattesh V.; Singh, Prahlad R.; Reddy, V. Sreenivasa; Katti, Kavita K.; Volkert, Wynn A.; Ketring, Alan R.

    1999-01-01

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises a functionalized hydroxyalkyl phosphine ligand and a metal combined with the ligand.

  7. Engineer Russ Feder leads development of diagnostic tools for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Engineer Russ Feder leads development of diagnostic tools for US ITER as physicist Dave ... In a rare transition, engineer Russ Feder has stepped into a management job that a ...

  8. Plasma density diagnostic for capillary-discharge based plasma...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Plasma density diagnostic for capillary-discharge based plasma channels Authors: Daniels, J. 1 Search SciTech Connect for author "Daniels, J." Search SciTech Connect for...

  9. Mach-Zehnder Fiber-Optic Links for ICF Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, E. K., Hermann, H. W.

    2012-11-01

    This article describes the operation and evolution of Mach-Zehnder links for single-point detectors in inertial confinement fusion experimental facilities, based on the Gamma Reaction History (GRH) diagnostic at the National Ignition Facility.

  10. Compatible and Cost-Effective Fault Diagnostic Solutions for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    a library of diagnostics decision-support tools for medium-to-large-sized commercial buildings that use air handling unit (AHU) systems that can enable cost-effective ...

  11. Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units- 2014 BTO Peer Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Jim Braun, Purdue University (The Pennsylvania State University Consortium for Building Energy Innovation) This project aims to develop and validate cost-effective methods for rooftop air conditioning unit (RTU) coordination and diagnostics in small commercial buildings.

  12. Spall diagnostic development for convergent geometries using momentum

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    witness windows. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Spall diagnostic development for convergent geometries using momentum witness windows. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Spall diagnostic development for convergent geometries using momentum witness windows. No abstract prepared. Authors: Furnish, Michael David Publication Date: 2004-11-01 OSTI Identifier: 964145 Report Number(s): SAND2004-5837C TRN: US200922%%24 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource

  13. Laser diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shafer, R.E.

    1998-01-01

    Laser photodetachment can be used on high current, high energy H{sup {minus}} beams to carry out a wide variety of beam diagnostic measurements parasitically during normal operation, without having to operate the facility at either reduced current or duty cycle. Suitable Q-switched laser systems are small, inexpensive, and can be mounted on or near the beamline. Most of the proposed laser-based diagnostics techniques have already been demonstrated.

  14. Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Environmental Monitoring. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics and Environmental Monitoring. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics and Environmental Monitoring. Abstract not provided. Authors: Harper, Jason C. ; Edwards, Thayne L. ; Polsky, Ronen ; Wheeler, David Roger ; Brozik, Susan Marie Publication Date: 2011-08-01 OSTI Identifier: 1120360 Report

  15. Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics.

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics. Abstract not provided. Authors: Harper, Jason C. ; Edwards, Thayne L. ; Polsky, Ronen ; Wheeler, David Roger ; Brozik, Susan Marie Publication Date: 2011-02-01 OSTI Identifier: 1109401 Report Number(s): SAND2011-0881C 473595 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type:

  16. 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 16, 2010, 9:00am to May 20, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Wildwood, New Jersey 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) The 18th Topical Conference on High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics will be held May 16-20, 2010 in Wildwood, New Jersey. This biennial conference brings together plasma physicists from a variety of fields including magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion, space plasmas, astrophysics, and industrial

  17. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics to Investigate Initiation Fundamentals in

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Energetic Materials. (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics to Investigate Initiation Fundamentals in Energetic Materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics to Investigate Initiation Fundamentals in Energetic Materials. Abstract not provided. Authors: Farrow, Darcie ; Kearney, Sean Patrick ; Scoglietti, Daniel Publication Date: 2011-08-01 OSTI Identifier: 1143441 Report Number(s): SAND2011-5736C 481988 DOE Contract Number:

  18. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  19. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  20. Use of Time-Aggregated Data in Economic Screening Analyses of Combined Heat and Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudson II, Carl Randy

    2004-09-01

    Combined heat and power (CHP) projects (also known as cogeneration projects) usually undergo a series of assessments and viability checks before any commitment is made. A screening analysis, with electrical and thermal loads characterized on an annual basis, may be performed initially to quickly determine the economic viability of the proposed project. Screening analyses using time-aggregated data do not reflect several critical cost influences, however. Seasonal and diurnal variations in electrical and thermal loads, as well as time-of-use utility pricing structures, can have a dramatic impact on the economics. A more accurate economic assessment requires additional detailed data on electrical and thermal demand (e.g., hourly load data), which may not be readily available for the specific facility under study. Recent developments in CHP evaluation tools, however, can generate the needed hourly data through the use of historical data libraries and building simulation. This article utilizes model-generated hourly load data for four potential CHP applications and compares the calculated cost savings of a CHP system when evaluated on a time-aggregated (i.e., annual) basis to the savings when evaluated on an hour-by-hour basis. It is observed that the simple, aggregated analysis forecasts much greater savings (i.e., greater economic viability) than the more detailed hourly analysis. The findings confirm that the simpler tool produces results with a much more optimistic outlook, which, if taken by itself, might lead to erroneous project decisions. The more rigorous approach, being more reflective of actual requirements and conditions, presents a more accurate economic comparison of the alternatives, which, in turn, leads to better decision risk management.

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Civil/Structural Engineering | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Civil/Structural Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses - Civil/Structural Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF

  2. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Construction Management | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Construction Management FAQS Job Task Analyses - Construction Management FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF icon FAQS JTA -

  3. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Environmental Restoration | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Restoration FAQS Job Task Analyses - Environmental Restoration FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF icon FAQS JTA - Environmental

  4. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Instrument and Controls | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Instrument and Controls FAQS Job Task Analyses - Instrument and Controls FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF icon FAQS JTA -

  5. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Occupational Safety | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Occupational Safety FAQS Job Task Analyses - Occupational Safety FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF icon FAQS JTA - Occupational

  6. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Safeguards and Security | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Security FAQS Job Task Analyses - Safeguards and Security FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. PDF icon FAQS JTA - Safeguards and

  7. Visible bremsstrahlung tomographic diagnostic for the pulsed high density field-reversed configuration experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gota, H.; Andreason, S. P.; Votroubek, G. R.; Pihl, C. J.; Slough, J. T.

    2006-10-15

    A diagnostic suite for the source section of the pulsed high density field-reversed configuration (FRC) experiment has been constructed to investigate the equilibrium and stability of FRC plasmas. In particular, a visible bremsstrahlung tomographic system has been designed and implemented. Three types of tomographic analyses for FRCs are performed: a Fourier fit method (Cormack-Granetz), a maximum entropy method, and a minimum Fisher method utilizing code developed for the TCV tokamak experiment in Switzerland [Anton et al., Plasma Phys. Controled Fusion 38, 1849 (1996)]. Results from the different methods and end-on imaging from the fast-framing camera are compared showing relative agreement of FRC internal structures between all measurements.

  8. EIA- Energy Efficiency Related Links: EIA Reports and Analyses

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Reports Energy-Efficiency Related: EIA Reports and Analyses Released Release Date: October 1999 Last Updated: August 2010 End Users: Commercial Buildings Manufacturing ...

  9. Ch. III, Interpretation of water sample analyses Waunita Hot...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of water sample analyses Waunita Hot Springs area Gunnison County, Colorado Author R. H. Carpenter Editor T. G. Zacharakis Published Colorado Geological Survey in Cooperation...

  10. Interpretation of chemical analyses of waters collected from...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    chemical analyses of waters collected from two geothermal wells at Coso, California Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Journal Article:...

  11. Combined Quantum Chemical/Raman Spectroscopic Analyses of Li...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Combined Quantum ChemicalRaman Spectroscopic Analyses of Li+ Cation Solvation: Cyclic ... Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Combined Quantum ChemicalRaman Spectroscopic ...

  12. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT COLUMN DEGRADATION ANALYSES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flach, G.

    2014-10-28

    PORFLOW related analyses supporting a Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) column degradation were performed. Previous analyses, Flach and Taylor 2014, used a model in which the SDU columns degraded in a piecewise manner from the top and bottom simultaneously. The current analyses employs a model in which all pieces of the column degrade at the same time. Information was extracted from the analyses which may be useful in determining the distribution of Tc-99 in the various SDUs throughout time and in determining flow balances for the SDUs.

  13. I I Hydrological/Geological Studies Radiochemical Analyses of...

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    ' HydrologicalGeological Studies Radiochemical Analyses of Water Samples from Selected Streams, Wells, Springs and Precipitation Collected Prior to Re-Entry . , Drilling, Project ...

  14. 11th Topical conference high-temperature plasma diagnostics. Book of abstracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-06-01

    This report contains abstracts from the 11th topical conference on high-temperature plasma diagnostics.

  15. FAQS Job Task Analyses- DOE Aviation Safety Officer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  16. FAQS Job Task Analyses- NNSA Package Certification Engineer

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  17. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Electrical Systems and Safety Oversight

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  18. Functional Area Qualification Standard Job Task Analyses | Department of

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Energy Job Task Analyses Functional Area Qualification Standard Job Task Analyses DOE Aviation Manager DOE Aviation Safety Officer Chemical Processing Civil/Structural Engineering Confinement Ventilation and Process Gas Treatment Construction Management Criticality Safety Deactivation and Decommissioning Electrical Systems and Safety Oversight Emergency Management Environmental Compliance Environmental Restoration Facility Representative Fire Protection Engineering General Technical Base

  19. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Safeguards and Security General Technical Base

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  20. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Nuclear Explosive Safety Study

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Senior Technical Safety Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  2. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Confinement Ventilation and Process Gas Treatment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  3. Research at ITER towards DEMO: Specific reactor diagnostic studies to be carried out on ITER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krasilnikov, A. V.; Kaschuck, Y. A.; Vershkov, V. A.; Petrov, A. A.; Petrov, V. G.; Tugarinov, S. N. [Institution Project center ITER, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2014-08-21

    In ITER diagnostics will operate in the very hard radiation environment of fusion reactor. Extensive technology studies are carried out during development of the ITER diagnostics and procedures of their calibration and remote handling. Results of these studies and practical application of the developed diagnostics on ITER will provide the direct input to DEMO diagnostic development. The list of DEMO measurement requirements and diagnostics will be determined during ITER experiments on the bases of ITER plasma physics results and success of particular diagnostic application in reactor-like ITER plasma. Majority of ITER diagnostic already passed the conceptual design phase and represent the state of the art in fusion plasma diagnostic development. The number of related to DEMO results of ITER diagnostic studies such as design and prototype manufacture of: neutron and ?–ray diagnostics, neutral particle analyzers, optical spectroscopy including first mirror protection and cleaning technics, reflectometry, refractometry, tritium retention measurements etc. are discussed.

  4. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  5. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  6. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  7. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  8. Optomechanical design of a prompt gamma reaction history diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hermann, Hans W; Kaufman, Morris I; Malone, Robert M; Frogget, Brent C; Tunnell, Thomas W; Cox, Brian; Frayer, Daniel K; Ali, Zaheer; Stoeffl, Wolfgang

    2009-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility and the Omega Laser Facility both have a need for measuring prompt gamma radiation as part of a nuclear diagnostic program. A new gamma-detection diagnostic using off-axis-parabolic mirrors has been built. Some new techniques were used in the design, construction, and tolerancing of this gamma ray diagnostic. Because of the wavelength requirement (250-700 nm), the optical element surface finishes were a key design consideration. The optical enclosure had to satisfy pressure safety concerns and shielding against electromagnetic interference induced by gammas and neutrons. Structural finite element analysis was needed to meet rigorous optical and safety requirements. The optomechanical design is presented. Alignment issues are also discussed.

  9. Fluorescence-based video profile beam diagnostics: Theory and experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandoval, D.; Gilpatrick, D.; Shinas, M.; Garcia, R.; Yuan, V.; Zander, M.

    1994-05-01

    Inelastic collisions between accelerated particles and residual gas in the accelerator vessel can cause the residual gas to fluoresce. The gas fluorescence intensity is proportional to the current density of the particle beam. This process provides the foundation for a video diagnostic system to measure the profile and position of accelerated particle beams. This, in fact, has proven to be a useful diagnostic at several installations. This paper describes the light production process resulting from beam -- residual gas interactions and gives formulas for estimating the beam radiance for various conditions. Ground Test Accelerator (GTA) radiance calculations will be used as an example. In addition, measurement experiences with the GTA video diagnostics system will be discussed.

  10. Fluorescence-based video profile beam diagnostics: Theory and experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandoval, D.P.; Garcia, R.C.; Gilpatrick, J.D.; Shinas, M.A.; Wright, R.; Yuan, V.; Zander, M.E. )

    1994-10-10

    Inelastic collisions between accelerated particles and residual gas in the accelerator vessel can cause the residual gas to fluoresce. The gas fluorescence intensity is proportional to the current density of the particle beam. This process provides the foundation for a video diagnostics system to measure the profile and position of accelerated particle beams. This, in fact, has proven to be a useful diagnostic at several installations. This paper describes the light production process resulting from beam-residual gas interactions and gives formulas for estimating the beam radiance for various conditions. Ground Test Accelerator (GTA) radiance calculations will be used as an example. In addition, measurement experiences with the GTA video diagnostics system will be discussed.

  11. Nuclear diagnostics for the National Ignition Facility (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Thomas J.; Barnes, Cris W.; Berggren, R. R.; Bradley, P.; Caldwell, S. E.; Chrien, R. E.; Faulkner, J. R.; Gobby, P. L.; Hoffman, N.; Jimerson, J. L.

    2001-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF), currently under construction at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, will provide unprecedented opportunities for the use of nuclear diagnostics in inertial confinement fusion experiments. The completed facility will provide 2 MJ of laser energy for driving targets, compared to the approximately 40 kJ that was available on Nova and the approximately 30 kJ available on Omega. Ignited NIF targets are anticipated to produce up to 10{sup 19} DT neutrons. In addition to a basic set of nuclear diagnostics based on previous experience, these higher NIF yields are expected to allow innovative nuclear diagnostic techniques to be utilized, such as neutron imaging, recoil proton techniques, and gamma-ray-based reaction history measurements.

  12. Passive Spectroscopic Diagnostics for Magnetically-confined Fusion Plasmas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stratton, B. C.; Biter, M.; Hill, K. W.; Hillis, D. L.; Hogan, J. T.

    2007-07-18

    Spectroscopy of radiation emitted by impurities and hydrogen isotopes plays an important role in the study of magnetically-confined fusion plasmas, both in determining the effects of impurities on plasma behavior and in measurements of plasma parameters such as electron and ion temperatures and densities, particle transport, and particle influx rates. This paper reviews spectroscopic diagnostics of plasma radiation that are excited by collisional processes in the plasma, which are termed 'passive' spectroscopic diagnostics to distinguish them from 'active' spectroscopic diagnostics involving injected particle and laser beams. A brief overview of the ionization balance in hot plasmas and the relevant line and continuum radiation excitation mechanisms is given. Instrumentation in the soft X-ray, vacuum ultraviolet, ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared regions of the spectrum is described and examples of measurements are given. Paths for further development of these measurements and issues for their implementation in a burning plasma environment are discussed.

  13. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  15. The heavy ion beam diagnostic for the tokamak ISTTOK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cabral, J.A.C.; Malaquias, A.; Praxedes, A.; Toledo, W. van; Varandas, C.A.F. )

    1994-08-01

    In this paper the authors describe the heavy ion beam diagnostic for the tokamak ISTTOK, which has been designed to determine the temporal evolution of the plasma density, poloidal magnetic field and plasma potential profiles. This diagnostic makes use of a new type of high density caesium plasma source, a multiple cell detector and a fast data acquisition system. The authors describe the numerical code for trajectory and beam attenuation simulations, a method for the experimental determination of the poloidal field profile, the ion gun and the detection, control and data acquisition systems. Calibration tests and the first experimental results are presented.

  16. Hybrid opto-electric techniques for molecular diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haque, Aeraj Ul [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

    2012-01-01

    Hybrid optoelectric techniques reflect a new paradigm in microfluidics. In essence, these are microfluidic techniques that employ a synergistic combination of optical and electrical forces to enable noninvasive manipulation of fluids and/or particle-type entities at the micro/nano-scale [1]. Synergy between optical and electrical forces bestows these techniques with several unique features that are promising to bring new opportunities in molecular diagnostics. Within the scope of molecular diagnostics, several aspects of optoelectric techniques promise to play a relevant role. These include, but are not limited to, sample preparation, sorting, purification, amplification and detection.

  17. High density harp or wire scanner for particle beam diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritsche, C.T.; Krogh, M.L.

    1996-05-21

    Disclosed is a diagnostic detector head harp used to detect and characterize high energy particle beams using an array of closely spaced detector wires, typically carbon wires, spaced less than 0.1 cm (0.040 inch) connected to a hybrid microcircuit formed on a ceramic substrate. A method to fabricate harps to obtain carbon wire spacing and density not previously available utilizing hybrid microcircuit technology. The hybrid microcircuit disposed on the ceramic substrate connects electrically between the detector wires and diagnostic equipment which analyzes pulses generated in the detector wires by the high energy particle beams. 6 figs.

  18. High density harp or wire scanner for particle beam diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritsche, Craig T.; Krogh, Michael L.

    1996-05-21

    A diagnostic detector head harp (23) used to detect and characterize high energy particle beams using an array of closely spaced detector wires (21), typically carbon wires, spaced less than 0.1 cm (0.040 inch) connected to a hybrid microcircuit (25) formed on a ceramic substrate (26). A method to fabricate harps (23) to obtain carbon wire spacing and density not previously available utilizing hybrid microcircuit technology. The hybrid microcircuit (25) disposed on the ceramic substrate (26) connects electrically between the detector wires (21) and diagnostic equipment (37) which analyzes pulses generated in the detector wires (21) by the high energy particle beams.

  19. Pilot project for a commercial buildings Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Center (EADC) program. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Capehart, B.L.

    1996-02-01

    Commercial energy use costs businesses around $70 billion annually. Many of these businesses are small and medium sized organizations that do not have the resources to help themselves, or to pay for professional engineering services to help reduce their energy costs and improve their economic competitiveness. Energy cost reduction actions with payback times of around two years could save the commercial sector 15--20%, or $10--$15 billion per year. This project was initially intended to evaluate the feasibility of performing commercial energy audits as an adjunct to the industrial audit program run by the US Department of Energy Industrial Office. This program is housed in 30 universities throughout the United States. Formerly known as Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers (EADC`s), the university programs are now called Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC`s) to reflect their expansion from energy use analyses to include waste and productivity analyses. The success of the EADC/IAC program in helping the manufacturing sector provides an excellent model for a similar program in the commercial buildings sector. This project has investigated using the EADC/IAC approach to performing energy audits for the commercial sector, and has determined that such an approach is feasible and cost effective.

  20. ARM - PI Product - SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    love to hear from you Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses Forcing data, suitable for use with...

  1. February 23, 2016 Webinar - Multi-Criteria Decisional Analyses...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Practice (CoP) Webinar - February 23, 2016 - Multi-Criteria Decisional Analyses: Methodology and Case Studies (Dr. Igor Linkov and Mr. Matthew Bates, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). ...

  2. May 20, 2015 Webinar - Guidance for Conducting Technical Analyses...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance & RIsk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Webinar - May 20, 2015 - Guidance for Conducting Technical Analyses for 10 CFR Part 61 by Mr. Chris Grossman (NRC) ...

  3. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  4. Preliminary Multiphysics Analyses of HFIR LEU Fuel Conversion using COMSOL

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Preliminary Multiphysics Analyses of HFIR LEU Fuel Conversion using COMSOL Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Preliminary Multiphysics Analyses of HFIR LEU Fuel Conversion using COMSOL The research documented herein was performed by several individuals across multiple organizations. We have previously acknowledged our funding for the project, but another common thread among the authors of this document, and hence the research

  5. Combined Quantum Chemical/Raman Spectroscopic Analyses of Li+ Cation

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Solvation: Cyclic Carbonate Solvents - Ethylene Carbonate and Propylene Earbonate (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Combined Quantum Chemical/Raman Spectroscopic Analyses of Li+ Cation Solvation: Cyclic Carbonate Solvents - Ethylene Carbonate and Propylene Earbonate Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Combined Quantum Chemical/Raman Spectroscopic Analyses of Li+ Cation Solvation: Cyclic Carbonate Solvents - Ethylene Carbonate and Propylene Earbonate Combined computational/Raman

  6. Transcriptome and Biochemical Analyses of Fungal Degradation of Wood

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Transcriptome and Biochemical Analyses of Fungal Degradation of Wood Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Transcriptome and Biochemical Analyses of Fungal Degradation of Wood Lignocellulosic accounts for a large percentage of material that can be utilized for biofuels. The most costly part of lignocellulosic material processing is the initial hydrolysis of the wood which is needed to circumvent the lignin barrier and the crystallinity of cellulose.

  7. Using multivariate analyses to compare subsets of electrodes and potentials

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    within an electrode array for predicting sugar concentrations in mixed solutions. (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Journal Article: Using multivariate analyses to compare subsets of electrodes and potentials within an electrode array for predicting sugar concentrations in mixed solutions. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Using multivariate analyses to compare subsets of electrodes and potentials within an electrode array for predicting sugar concentrations in mixed solutions. A

  8. Soft x-ray diagnostics for pulsed power machines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Idzorek, G.C.; Coulter, W.L.; Walsh, P.J.; Montoya, R.R.

    1995-08-01

    A variety of soft x-ray diagnostics are being fielded on the Los Alamos National Laboratory Pegasus and Procyon pulsed power systems and also being fielded on joint US/Russian magnetized target fusion experiments known as MAGO (Magnitoye Obzhatiye). The authors have designed a low-cost modular photoemissive detector designated the XRD-96 that uses commercial 1100 series aluminum for the photocathode. In addition to photocathode detectors a number of designs using solid state silicon photodiodes have been designed and fielded. They also present a soft x-ray time-integrated pinhole camera system that uses standard type TMAX-400 photographic film that obviates the need for expensive and no longer produced zero-overcoat soft x-ray emulsion film. In a typical experiment the desired spectral energy cuts, signal intensity levels, and desired field of view will determine diagnostic geometry and x-ray filters selected. The authors have developed several computer codes to assist in the diagnostic design process and data deconvolution. Examples of the diagnostic design process and data analysis for a typical pulsed power experiment are presented.

  9. Multifunctional ligand for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, K.V.; Volkert, W.A.; Ketring, A.R.; Singh, P.R.

    1996-05-14

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical are revealed. The ligand comprises either a phosphorous or germanium core and at least two hydrazine groups forming a ligand for bonding to a metal extending from the phosphorous or germanium core.

  10. Multifunctional ligand for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, Kattesh V.; Volkert, Wynn A.; Ketring, Alan R.; Singh, Prahlad R.

    1996-01-01

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises either a phosphorous or germanium core and at least two hydrazine groups forming a ligand for bonding to a metal extending from the phosphorous or germanium core.

  11. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  12. Electrically heated particulate filter diagnostic systems and methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gonze, Eugene V [Pinckney, MI

    2009-09-29

    A system that diagnoses regeneration of an electrically heated particulate filter is provided. The system generally includes a grid module that diagnoses a fault of the grid based on at least one of a current signal and a voltage signal. A diagnostic module at least one of sets a fault status and generates a warning signal based on the fault of the grid.

  13. Status of the design of the ITER ECE diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, G.; Austin, M. E.; Beno, J. H.; Danani, S.; Feder, R.; Hesler, J. L.; Hubbard, A. E.; Johnson, D. W.; Kumar, R.; Pandya, H. K. B.; Roman, C.; Rowan, W. L.; Udintsev, V.; Vayakis, G.; Walsh, M.; Kubo, S.

    2015-03-12

    In this study, the baseline design for the ITER electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostic has entered the detailed preliminary design phase. Two plasma views are planned, a radial view and an oblique view that is sensitive to distortions in the electron momentum distribution near the average thermal momentum. Both views provide high spatial resolution electron temperature profiles when the momentum distribution remains Maxwellian. The ECE diagnostic system consists of the front-end optics, including two 1000 K calibration sources, in equatorial port plug EP9, the 70-1000 GHz transmission system from the front-end to the diagnostics hall, and the ECE instrumentation in the diagnostics hall. The baseline ECE instrumentation will include two Michelson interferometers that can simultaneously measure ordinary and extraordinary mode ECE from 70 to 1000 GHz, and two heterodyne radiometer systems, covering 122-230 GHz and 244-355 GHz. Significant design challenges include 1) developing highly-reliable 1000 K calibration sources and the associated shutters/mirrors, 2) providing compliant couplings between the front-end optics and the polarization splitter box that accommodate displacements of the vacuum vessel during plasma operations and bake out, 3) protecting components from damage due to stray ECH radiation and other intense millimeter wave emission and 4) providing the low-loss broadband transmission system.

  14. Status of the design of the ITER ECE diagnostic

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Taylor, G.; Austin, M. E.; Beno, J. H.; Danani, S.; Ellis, R. F.; Feder, R.; Hesler, J. L.; Hubbard, A. E.; Johnson, D. W.; Kumar, R.; et al

    2015-03-12

    In this study, the baseline design for the ITER electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostic has entered the detailed preliminary design phase. Two plasma views are planned, a radial view and an oblique view that is sensitive to distortions in the electron momentum distribution near the average thermal momentum. Both views provide high spatial resolution electron temperature profiles when the momentum distribution remains Maxwellian. The ECE diagnostic system consists of the front-end optics, including two 1000 K calibration sources, in equatorial port plug EP9, the 70-1000 GHz transmission system from the front-end to the diagnostics hall, and the ECE instrumentation inmore » the diagnostics hall. The baseline ECE instrumentation will include two Michelson interferometers that can simultaneously measure ordinary and extraordinary mode ECE from 70 to 1000 GHz, and two heterodyne radiometer systems, covering 122-230 GHz and 244-355 GHz. Significant design challenges include 1) developing highly-reliable 1000 K calibration sources and the associated shutters/mirrors, 2) providing compliant couplings between the front-end optics and the polarization splitter box that accommodate displacements of the vacuum vessel during plasma operations and bake out, 3) protecting components from damage due to stray ECH radiation and other intense millimeter wave emission and 4) providing the low-loss broadband transmission system.« less

  15. Electromagnetic Analysis For The Design Of ITER Diagnostic Port Plugs During Plasma Disruptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhai, Y

    2014-03-03

    ITER diagnostic port plugs perform many functions including structural support of diagnostic systems under high electromagnetic loads while allowing for diagnostic access to plasma. The design of diagnotic equatorial port plugs (EPP) are largely driven by electromagnetic loads and associate response of EPP structure during plasma disruptions and VDEs. This paper summarizes results of transient electromagnetic analysis using Opera 3d in support of the design activities for ITER diagnostic EPP. A complete distribution of disruption loads on the Diagnostic First Walls (DFWs). Diagnostic Shield Modules (DSMs) and the EPP structure, as well as impact on the system design integration due to electrical contact among various EPP structural components are discussed.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  18. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  19. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  20. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  1. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  2. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  3. Finite element analyses of a linear-accelerator electron gun

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iqbal, M. E-mail: muniqbal@ihep.ac.cn; Wasy, A.; Islam, G. U.; Zhou, Z.

    2014-02-15

    Thermo-structural analyses of the Beijing Electron-Positron Collider (BEPCII) linear-accelerator, electron gun, were performed for the gun operating with the cathode at 1000 °C. The gun was modeled in computer aided three-dimensional interactive application for finite element analyses through ANSYS workbench. This was followed by simulations using the SLAC electron beam trajectory program EGUN for beam optics analyses. The simulations were compared with experimental results of the assembly to verify its beam parameters under the same boundary conditions. Simulation and test results were found to be in good agreement and hence confirmed the design parameters under the defined operating temperature. The gun is operating continuously since commissioning without any thermal induced failures for the BEPCII linear accelerator.

  4. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  5. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  6. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE 4 th Solar Integration Workshop Carlo Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Anthony Florita, and Bri-Mathias Hodge Berlin, Germany November 10, 2014 NREL/PR-5000-63082 2 Motivation and Scope * The economic benefits from renewable energy forecasting are largely unquantified in the power community o Current renewable energy penetration levels in the United States are often too low to appreciably quantify the value of improving renewable energy

  7. X-Ray Line-Shape Diagnostics and Novel Stigmatic Imaging Schemes...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    X-Ray Line-Shape Diagnostics and Novel Stigmatic Imaging Schemes for the National Ignition Facility Citation Details In-Document Search Title: X-Ray Line-Shape Diagnostics and ...

  8. ChemCam laser first analyses yield beautiful results

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ChemCam laser first analyses ChemCam laser first analyses yield beautiful results The laser instrument has fired nearly 500 shots so far that have produced strong, clear data about the composition of the Martian surface. August 23, 2012 This photo mosaic shows the scour mark, dubbed Goulburn, left by the thrusters on the sky crane that helped lower NASA's Curiosity rover to the Red Planet. It is located 16 to 20 feet (5 to 6 meters) to the left of the rover's landing position. The sky crane

  9. Optical diagnostics integrated with laser spark delivery system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yalin, Azer; Willson, Bryan; Defoort, Morgan; Joshi, Sachin; Reynolds, Adam

    2008-09-02

    A spark delivery system for generating a spark using a laser beam is provided, and includes a laser light source and a laser delivery assembly. The laser delivery assembly includes a hollow fiber and a launch assembly comprising launch focusing optics to input the laser beam in the hollow fiber. The laser delivery assembly further includes exit focusing optics that demagnify an exit beam of laser light from the hollow fiber, thereby increasing the intensity of the laser beam and creating a spark. Other embodiments use a fiber laser to generate a spark. Embodiments of the present invention may be used to create a spark in an engine. Yet other embodiments include collecting light from the spark or a flame resulting from the spark and conveying the light for diagnostics. Methods of using the spark delivery systems and diagnostic systems are provided.

  10. Description of the prototype diagnostic residual gas analyzer for ITER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Younkin, T. R.; Biewer, T. M.; Klepper, C. C.; Marcus, C.

    2014-11-15

    The diagnostic residual gas analyzer (DRGA) system to be used during ITER tokamak operation is being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to measure fuel ratios (deuterium and tritium), fusion ash (helium), and impurities in the plasma. The eventual purpose of this instrument is for machine protection, basic control, and physics on ITER. Prototyping is ongoing to optimize the hardware setup and measurement capabilities. The DRGA prototype is comprised of a vacuum system and measurement technologies that will overlap to meet ITER measurement requirements. Three technologies included in this diagnostic are a quadrupole mass spectrometer, an ion trap mass spectrometer, and an optical penning gauge that are designed to document relative and absolute gas concentrations.

  11. Integrated real-time fracture-diagnostics instrumentation system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engi, D

    1983-01-01

    The use of an integrated, real-time fracture-diagnostics instrumentation system for the control of the fracturing treatment during massive hydraulic fracturing is proposed. The proposed system consists of four subsystems: an internal-fracture-pressure measurement system, a fluid-flow measurement system, a borehole seismic system, and a surface-electric-potential measurement system. This use of borehole seismic and surface-electric-potential measurements, which are essentially away-from-the-wellbore measurements, in conjunction with the use of the more commonly used types of measurements, i.e., at-the-wellbore pressure and fluid-flow measurements, is a distinctive feature of the composite real-time diagnostics system. Currently, the real-time capabilities of the individual subsystems are being developed, and the problems associated with their integration into a complete, computer-linked instrumentation system are being addressed. 2 figures.

  12. First beam measurements on the vessel for extraction and source plasma analyses (VESPA) at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lawrie, Scott R.; Faircloth, Daniel C.; Letchford, Alan P.; Perkins, Mike; Whitehead, Mark O.; Wood, Trevor

    2015-04-08

    In order to facilitate the testing of advanced H{sup −} ion sources for the ISIS and Front End Test Stand (FETS) facilities at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), a Vessel for Extraction and Source Plasma Analyses (VESPA) has been constructed. This will perform the first detailed plasma measurements on the ISIS Penning-type H{sup −} ion source using emission spectroscopic techniques. In addition, the 30-year-old extraction optics are re-designed from the ground up in order to fully transport the beam. Using multiple beam and plasma diagnostics devices, the ultimate aim is improve H{sup −} production efficiency and subsequent transport for either long-term ISIS user operations or high power FETS requirements. The VESPA will also accommodate and test a new scaled-up Penning H{sup −} source design. This paper details the VESPA design, construction and commissioning, as well as initial beam and spectroscopy results.

  13. Comparative guide to emerging diagnostic tools for large commercial HVAC systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Friedman, Hannah; Piette, Mary Ann

    2001-05-01

    This guide compares emerging diagnostic software tools that aid detection and diagnosis of operational problems for large HVAC systems. We have evaluated six tools for use with energy management control system (EMCS) or other monitoring data. The diagnostic tools summarize relevant performance metrics, display plots for manual analysis, and perform automated diagnostic procedures. Our comparative analysis presents nine summary tables with supporting explanatory text and includes sample diagnostic screens for each tool.

  14. U-135: HP WBEM Discloses Diagnostic Data to Remote and Local Users

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Two vulnerabilities were reported in HP WBEM. A remote or local user can gain access to diagnostic data.

  15. Measure Guideline: Air Conditioner Diagnostics, Maintenance, and Replacement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Springer, D.; Dakin, B.

    2013-03-01

    This guideline responds to the need for an efficient means of identifying, diagnosing, and repairing faults in air conditioning systems in existing homes that are undergoing energy upgrades. Inadequate airflow due to constricted ducts or undersized filters, improper refrigerant charge, and other system defects can be corrected at a fraction of the cost of equipment replacement and can yield significant savings. The guideline presents a two-step approach to diagnostics and repair.

  16. Measure Guideline. Air Conditioner Diagnostics, Maintenance, and Replacement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Springer, David; Dakin, Bill

    2013-03-01

    This guideline responds to the need for an efficient means of identifying, diagnosing, and repairing faults in air conditioning systems in existing homes that are undergoing energy upgrades. Inadequate airflow due to constricted ducts or undersized filters, improper refrigerant charge, and other system defects can be corrected at a fraction of the cost of equipment replacement and can yield significant savings. The guideline presents a two-step approach to diagnostics and repair.

  17. LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic device

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LANL spinoff receives NIH grant LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic device Mesa Tech has been awarded a grant to develop an inexpensive, instrument-free, nucleic-acid testing device to diagnose various respiratory diseases in record time. October 19, 2011 Los Alamos National Laboratory sits on top of a once-remote mesa in northern New Mexico with the Jemez mountains as a backdrop to research and innovation covering multi-disciplines from bioscience, sustainable

  18. Diagnostic Mass-Consistent Wind Field Monte Carlo Dispersion Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1991-01-01

    MATHEW generates a diagnostic mass-consistent, three-dimensional wind field based on point measurements of wind speed and direction. It accounts for changes in topography within its calculational domain. The modeled wind field is used by the Langrangian ADPIC dispersion model. This code is designed to predict the atmospheric boundary layer transport and diffusion of neutrally bouyant, non-reactive species as well as first-order chemical reactions and radioactive decay (including daughter products).

  19. Real Time Diagnostics for Algae-final-sm

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Real-time Monitoring And Diagnostics Detecting pathogens and predators to quickly recover from pond crashes Algal Pond Crash Detection Sandia National Laboratories is developing a suite of complementary technologies to help the emerging algae industry detect and quickly recover from algal pond crashes, an obstacle to large-scale algae cultivation for biofuels. Because of the way algae is grown and produced in most algal ponds, they are prone to attack by fungi, rotifers, viruses or other

  20. Diffraction effects in the coherent transition radiation bunch length diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazakevich, G.; Lebedev, V.; Nagaitsev, S.; /Fermilab

    2007-08-01

    Diffraction effects in the Coherent Transition Radiation (CTR) bunch length diagnostics are considered for the A0 Photoinjector and the New Muon Laboratory (NML) injection module. The effects can cause a noticeable distortion of the measured CTR spectra depending on the experimental setup and the bunch parameters and resulting in errors of the bunch length measurements. Presented calculations show possible systematic errors in the bunch length in measurements based on the CTR spectra at A0 Photo injector and the NML injection module.

  1. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Studies of Shock Initiation in Energetic

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Materials. (Conference) | SciTech Connect for Studies of Shock Initiation in Energetic Materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Studies of Shock Initiation in Energetic Materials. Abstract not provided. Authors: Farrow, Darcie ; Kearney, Sean Patrick ; Jilek, Brook Anton ; Urayama, Junji ; Kohl, Ian Thomas Publication Date: 2013-06-01 OSTI Identifier: 1115245 Report Number(s): SAND2013-5254C 478660 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource

  2. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics to Investigate Initiation in Energetic

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Materials. (Conference) | SciTech Connect to Investigate Initiation in Energetic Materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics to Investigate Initiation in Energetic Materials. Abstract not provided. Authors: Farrow, Darcie Publication Date: 2012-01-01 OSTI Identifier: 1118319 Report Number(s): SAND2012-0257C 481469 DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000 Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: NW external LDRD review held January 18, 2012 in

  3. Method to directly radiolabel antibodies for diagnostic imaging and therapy

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thakur, Mathew L.

    1994-01-01

    The invention is a novel method and kit for directly radiolabeling proteins such as antibodies or antibody fragments for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. The method comprises incubating a protein-containing solution with a solution of sodium ascorbate; adding a required quantity of reduced radionuclide to the incubated protein. A kit is also provided wherein the protein and/or reducing agents may be in lyophilized form.

  4. Method to directly radiolabel antibodies for diagnostic imaging and therapy

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thakur, Mathew L.

    1991-01-01

    The invention is a novel method and kit for directly radiolabeling proteins such as antibodies or antibody fragments for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. The method comprises incubating a protein-containing solution with a solution of sodium ascorbate; adding a required quantity of reduced radionuclide to the incubated protein. A kit is also provided wherein the protein and/or reducing agents may be in lyophilized form.

  5. Laser diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shafer, R.E.

    1998-12-01

    In the last 5 years, significant technology advances have been made in the performance, size, and cost of solid-state diode-pumped lasers. These developments enable the use of compact Q-switched Nd:YAG lasers as a beam diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams. Because the threshold for photodetachment is only 0.75 eV, and the maximum detachment cross section is 4{times}10{sup {minus}17}cm{sup 2} at 1.5 eV, A 50 mJ/pulse Q-switched Nd:YAG laser can neutralize a significant fraction of the beam in a single 10 ns wide pulse. The neutral beam maintains nearly identical parameters as the parent H{sup {minus}} beam, including size, divergence, energy, energy spread, and phase spread. A dipole magnet can separate the neutral beam from the H{sup {minus}} beam to allow diagnostics on the neutral beam without intercepting the high-current H{sup {minus}} beam. Such a laser system can also be used to extract a low current proton beam, or to induce fluorescence in partially stripped heavy ion beams. Possible beamline diagnostic systems will be reviewed, and the neutral beam yields will be calculated. {copyright} {ital 1998 American Institute of Physics.}

  6. Laser diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shafer, R.E.

    1998-05-05

    In the last 5 years, significant technology advances have been made in the performance, size, and cost of solid-state diode-pumped lasers. These developments enable the use of compact Q-switched Nd:YAG lasers as a beam diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams. Because the threshold for photodetachment is only 0.75 eV, and the maximum detachment cross section is 4 {times} 10{sup {minus}17} cm{sup 2} at 1.5 eV, a 50 mJ/pulse Q-switched Nd:YAG laser can neutralize a significant fraction of the beam in a single 10-ns wide pulse. The neutral beam maintains nearly identical parameters as the parent H{sup {minus}} beam, including size, divergence, energy, energy spread, and phase spread. A dipole magnet can separate the neutral beam from the H{sup {minus}} beam to allow diagnostics on the neutral beam without intercepting the high-current H{sup {minus}} beam. Such a laser system can also be used to extract a low current proton beam, or to induce fluorescence in partially stripped heavy ion beams. Possible beamline diagnostic systems will be reviewed, and the neutral beam yields will be calculated.

  7. Laser diagnostic for high current H{sup -} beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shafer, Robert E.

    1998-12-10

    In the last 5 years, significant technology advances have been made in the performance, size, and cost of solid-state diode-pumped lasers. These developments enable the use of compact Q-switched Nd:YAG lasers as a beam diagnostic for high current H{sup -} beams. Because the threshold for photodetachment is only 0.75 eV, and the maximum detachment cross section is 4x10{sup -17} cm{sup 2} at 1.5 eV, A 50 mJ/pulse Q-switched Nd:YAG laser can neutralize a significant fraction of the beam in a single 10 ns wide pulse. The neutral beam maintains nearly identical parameters as the parent H{sup -} beam, including size, divergence, energy, energy spread, and phase spread. A dipole magnet can separate the neutral beam from the H{sup -} beam to allow diagnostics on the neutral beam without intercepting the high-current H{sup -} beam. Such a laser system can also be used to extract a low current proton beam, or to induce fluorescence in partially stripped heavy ion beams. Possible beamline diagnostic systems will be reviewed, and the neutral beam yields will be calculated.

  8. Correlation ECE diagnostic in Alcator C-Mod

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sung, C.; White, A. E.; Howard, N. T.; Mikkelsen, D.; Irby, J.; Leccacorvi, R.; Vieira, R.; Oi, C.; Rice, J.; Reinke, M.; Gao, C.; Ennever, P.; Porkolab, M.; Churchill, R.; Theiler, C.; Walk, J.; Hughes, J.; Hubbard, A.; Greenwald, M.

    2015-03-12

    Correlation ECE (CECE) is a diagnostic technique that allows measurement of small amplitude electron temperature, Te, fluctuations through standard cross-correlation analysis methods. In Alcator C-Mod, a new CECE diagnostic has been installed[Sung RSI 2012], and interesting phenomena have been observed in various plasma conditions. We find that local Te fluctuations near the edge (ρ ~ 0:8) decrease across the linearto- saturated ohmic confinement transition, with fluctuations decreasing with increasing plasma density[Sung NF 2013], which occurs simultaneously with rotation reversals[Rice NF 2011]. Te fluctuations are also reduced across core rotation reversals with an increase of plasma density in RF heated L-mode plasmas, which implies that the same physics related to the reduction of Te fluctuations may be applied to both ohmic and RF heated L-mode plasmas. In I-mode plasmas, we observe the reduction of core Te fluctuations, which indicates changes of turbulence occur not only in the pedestal region but also in the core across the L/I transition[White NF 2014]. The present CECE diagnostic system in C-Mod and these experimental results are described in this paper.

  9. PERFORMANCE OF THE DIAGNOSTICS FOR NSLS-II LINAC COMMISSIONING

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fliller III, R.; Padrazo, D.; Wang, G.M.; Heese, R.; Hseuh H.-C.; Johanson, M.; Kosciuk, B.N.; Pinayev, I.; Rose, J.; Shaftan, T.; Singh, O.

    2011-03-28

    The National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) is a state of the art 3-GeV third generation light source currently under construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The NSLS-II injection system consists of a 200 MeV linac, a 3-GeV booster synchrotron and associated transfer lines. The transfer lines not only provide a means to deliver the beam from one machine to another, they also provide a suite of diagnostics and utilities to measure the properties of the beam to be delivered. In this paper we discuss the suite of diagnostics that will be used to commission the NSLS-II linac and measure the beam properties. The linac to booster transfer line can measure the linac emittance with a three screens measurement or a quadrupole scan. Energy and energy spread are measured in a dispersive section. Total charge and charge uniformity are measured with wall current monitors in the linac and transformers in the transfer line. We show that the performance of the diagnostics in the transfer line will be sufficient to ensure the linac meets its specifications and provides a means of trouble shooting and studying the linac in future operation.

  10. Error field and magnetic diagnostic modeling for W7-X

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lazerson, Sam A.; Gates, David A.; NEILSON, GEORGE H.; OTTE, M.; Bozhenkov, S.; Pedersen, T. S.; GEIGER, J.; LORE, J.

    2014-07-01

    The prediction, detection, and compensation of error fields for the W7-X device will play a key role in achieving a high beta (Β = 5%), steady state (30 minute pulse) operating regime utilizing the island divertor system [1]. Additionally, detection and control of the equilibrium magnetic structure in the scrape-off layer will be necessary in the long-pulse campaign as bootstrapcurrent evolution may result in poor edge magnetic structure [2]. An SVD analysis of the magnetic diagnostics set indicates an ability to measure the toroidal current and stored energy, while profile variations go undetected in the magnetic diagnostics. An additional set of magnetic diagnostics is proposed which improves the ability to constrain the equilibrium current and pressure profiles. However, even with the ability to accurately measure equilibrium parameters, the presence of error fields can modify both the plasma response and diverter magnetic field structures in unfavorable ways. Vacuum flux surface mapping experiments allow for direct measurement of these modifications to magnetic structure. The ability to conduct such an experiment is a unique feature of stellarators. The trim coils may then be used to forward model the effect of an applied n = 1 error field. This allows the determination of lower limits for the detection of error field amplitude and phase using flux surface mapping. *Research supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 with Princeton University.

  11. THz time-domain spectroscopy for tokamak plasma diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Causa, F.; Zerbini, M.; Buratti, P.; Gabellieri, L.; Pacella, D.; Romano, A.; Tuccillo, A. A.; Tudisco, O.; Johnston, M.; Doria, A.; Gallerano, G. P.; Giovenale, E.

    2014-08-21

    The technology is now becoming mature for diagnostics using large portions of the electromagnetic spectrum simultaneously, in the form of THz pulses. THz radiation-based techniques have become feasible for a variety of applications, e.g., spectroscopy, imaging for security, medicine and pharmaceutical industry. In particular, time-domain spectroscopy (TDS) is now being used also for plasma diagnostics in various fields of application. This technique is promising also for plasmas for fusion applications, where plasma characteristics are non-uniform and/or evolve during the discharge This is because THz pulses produced with femtosecond mode-locked lasers conveniently span the spectrum above and below the plasma frequency and, thus, can be used as very sensitive and versatile probes of widely varying plasma parameters. The short pulse duration permits time resolving plasma characteristics while the large frequency span permits a large dynamic range. The focus of this work is to present preliminary experimental and simulation results demonstrating that THz TDS can be realistically adapted as a versatile tokamak plasma diagnostic technique.

  12. Correlation ECE diagnostic in Alcator C-Mod

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Sung, C.; White, A. E.; Howard, N. T.; Mikkelsen, D.; Irby, J.; Leccacorvi, R.; Vieira, R.; Oi, C.; Rice, J.; Reinke, M.; et al

    2015-03-12

    Correlation ECE (CECE) is a diagnostic technique that allows measurement of small amplitude electron temperature, Te, fluctuations through standard cross-correlation analysis methods. In Alcator C-Mod, a new CECE diagnostic has been installed[Sung RSI 2012], and interesting phenomena have been observed in various plasma conditions. We find that local Te fluctuations near the edge (ρ ~ 0:8) decrease across the linearto- saturated ohmic confinement transition, with fluctuations decreasing with increasing plasma density[Sung NF 2013], which occurs simultaneously with rotation reversals[Rice NF 2011]. Te fluctuations are also reduced across core rotation reversals with an increase of plasma density in RF heated L-modemore » plasmas, which implies that the same physics related to the reduction of Te fluctuations may be applied to both ohmic and RF heated L-mode plasmas. In I-mode plasmas, we observe the reduction of core Te fluctuations, which indicates changes of turbulence occur not only in the pedestal region but also in the core across the L/I transition[White NF 2014]. The present CECE diagnostic system in C-Mod and these experimental results are described in this paper.« less

  13. Medical Isotope Production Analyses In KIPT Neutron Source Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Talamo, Alberto; Gohar, Yousry

    2016-01-01

    Medical isotope production analyses in Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) neutron source facility were performed to include the details of the irradiation cassette and the self-shielding effect. An updated detailed model of the facility was used for the analyses. The facility consists of an accelerator-driven system (ADS), which has a subcritical assembly using low-enriched uranium fuel elements with a beryllium-graphite reflector. The beryllium assemblies of the reflector have the same outer geometry as the fuel elements, which permits loading the subcritical assembly with different number of fuel elements without impacting the reflector performance. The subcritical assembly is driven by an external neutron source generated from the interaction of 100-kW electron beam with a tungsten target. The facility construction was completed at the end of 2015, and it is planned to start the operation during the year of 2016. It is the first ADS in the world, which has a coolant system for removing the generated fission power. Argonne National Laboratory has developed the design concept and performed extensive design analyses for the facility including its utilization for the production of different radioactive medical isotopes. 99Mo is the parent isotope of 99mTc, which is the most commonly used medical radioactive isotope. Detailed analyses were performed to define the optimal sample irradiation location and the generated activity, for several radioactive medical isotopes, as a function of the irradiation time.

  14. Analyses of Selected Provisions of Proposed Energy Legislation: 2003

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This study responds to a July 31, 2003 request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan. The study is based primarily on analyses the Energy Information Administration has previously done for studies requested by Congress. It includes analysis of the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Renewable Fuels Standard, production in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, the construction of an Alaskan Natural Gas pipeline, and various tax provisions.

  15. Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Ahlgrimm, Maike

    2015-04-02

    ECMWF derived diagnostic variables over MAGIC's ship path from Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI. Two dimensional (time and height) slices were extracted once the ship's exact positions were known.

  16. International Energy Agency Building Energy Simulation Test and Diagnostic Method (IEA BESTEST) Multi-Zone Non-Airflow In-Depth Diagnostic Cases: MZ320 -- MZ360

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neymark, J.; Judkoff, R.; Alexander, D.; Felsmann, C.; Strachan, P.; Wijsman, A.

    2008-09-01

    This report documents a set of diagnostic test cases for multi-zone heat transfer models. The methodology combines empirical validation, analytical verification, and comparative analysis techniques.

  17. Neutronics analyses in support of rotating target developments at SNS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gallmeier, Franz X.

    2010-03-08

    A second target station (STS) for Spallation Neutron Souce (SNS) very likely being operated in long-pulse mode is in the early design phase, will complement the ORNL neutron sources, which presently consist of a short-pulse spallation source and the HFIR research reactor. As an alternative to the stationary liquid metal target, a rotating target is being considered. Neutronics studies in support of a 3MW power 20 Hz repetition rate rotating target feasibility study funded through the laboratory LDRD program, was extended towards a 1.5 MW STS design. The scope of work included in-operation heat deposition rates in target structures for thermal and structural analyses, target radionuclide inventory for decay heat and safety analyses, lifetime estimations due to radiation-driven material damage of target and moderator components, moderator neutron performance and moderator cryogenic heatloads.

  18. Finite element analyses for seismic shear wall international standard problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, Y.J.; Hofmayer, C.H.

    1998-04-01

    Two identical reinforced concrete (RC) shear walls, which consist of web, flanges and massive top and bottom slabs, were tested up to ultimate failure under earthquake motions at the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation`s (NUPEC) Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory, Japan. NUPEC provided the dynamic test results to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) for use as an International Standard Problem (ISP). The shear walls were intended to be part of a typical reactor building. One of the major objectives of the Seismic Shear Wall ISP (SSWISP) was to evaluate various seismic analysis methods for concrete structures used for design and seismic margin assessment. It also offered a unique opportunity to assess the state-of-the-art in nonlinear dynamic analysis of reinforced concrete shear wall structures under severe earthquake loadings. As a participant of the SSWISP workshops, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) performed finite element analyses under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). Three types of analysis were performed, i.e., monotonic static (push-over), cyclic static and dynamic analyses. Additional monotonic static analyses were performed by two consultants, F. Vecchio of the University of Toronto (UT) and F. Filippou of the University of California at Berkeley (UCB). The analysis results by BNL and the consultants were presented during the second workshop in Yokohama, Japan in 1996. A total of 55 analyses were presented during the workshop by 30 participants from 11 different countries. The major findings on the presented analysis methods, as well as engineering insights regarding the applicability and reliability of the FEM codes are described in detail in this report. 16 refs., 60 figs., 16 tabs.

  19. Electrical signature analysis applications for non-intrusive automotive alternator diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ayers, C.W.

    1996-03-01

    Automotive alternators are designed to supply power for automobile engine ignition systems as well as charge the storage battery. This product is used in a large market where consumers are concerned with acoustic noise and vibration that comes from the unit. as well as overall quality and dependability. Alternators and generators in general are used in industries other than automotive, such as transportation and airline industries and in military applications. Their manufacturers are interested in pursuing state-of-the-art methods to achieve higher quality and reduced costs. Preliminary investigations of non-intrusive diagnostic techniques utilizing the inherent voltage signals of alternators have been performed with promising results. These techniques are based on time and frequency domain analyses of specially conditioned signals taken from several alternators under various test conditions. This paper discusses investigations that show correlations of the alternator output voltage to airborne noise production. In addition these signals provide insight into internal magnetic characteristics that relate to design and/or assembly problems.

  20. Extending RISMC Capabilities for Real-Time Diagnostics and Prognostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    curtis smith; Mandelli, Diego

    2014-11-01

    Quick and effective accident management is essential in any industry in order to limit and contain possible threats to both people and environment/assets. This is in particular relevant in the nuclear industry where accidents may have major impacts from an economic, health and societal point of view. As an example, the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident highlighted the importance of the ability of plant operators and plant staff to react quickly and effectively in accident conditions. This particular event showed the importance of being able to: • Determine/estimate the actual status of the plant (i.e., diagnosis) when the monitoring system is corrupted or partially unavailable, and, • Forecast its future evolution (i.e., prognosis). In this paper we want to describe a research direction geared toward the development of a new set of advanced diagnosis and prognosis tools. We employ innovative data mining and machine learning techniques that are able to infer plant status and mimic the plant’s full temporal behavior in order to assist the reactor operators during an accident scenario.