National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasts diagnostic analyses

  1. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  2. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (‘stochastic’) model with the weather forecast model (‘deterministic’) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  3. Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Group Bylaws Executive Board NIF Calendar Target Shot Metrics Call for Proposals 2014 ... Target diagnostics capability continues to grow on NIF annually as we add new ...

  4. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  5. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  6. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  8. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  9. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  10. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  11. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  12. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  13. Plasma diagnostic reflectometry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, B.I.; Afeyan, B.B.; Garrison, J.C.; Kaiser, T.B.; Luhmann, N.C. Jr.; Domier, C.W.; Chou, A.E.; Baang, S.

    1996-02-26

    Theoretical and experimental studies of plasma diagnostic reflectometry have been undertaken as a collaborative research project between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of California Department of Applied Science Plasma Diagnostics Group under the auspices of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL. Theoretical analyses have explored the basic principles of reflectometry to understand its limitations, to address specific gaps in the understanding of reflectometry measurements in laboratory experiments, and to explore extensions of reflectometry such as ultra-short-pulse reflectometry. The theory has supported basic laboratory reflectometry experiments where reflectometry measurements can be corroborated by independent diagnostic measurements.

  14. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  15. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. MJO Simulation Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Waliser, D; Sperber, K; Hendon, H; Kim, D; Maloney, E; Wheeler, M; Weickmann, K; Zhang, C; Donner, L; Gottschalck, J; Higgins, W; Kang, I; Legler, D; Moncrieff, M; Schubert, S; Stern, W; Vitart, F; Wang, B; Wang, W; Woolnough, S

    2008-06-02

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) interacts with, and influences, a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, mid-latitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in our climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multi-model comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, due to the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the US CLIVAR MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation, to more sophisticated space-time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life-cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  19. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  20. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  1. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  2. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  3. Mode Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Mode Analyses of Gyrokinetic Simulations of Plasma Microturbulence by David R. Hatch A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Physics) at The University of Wisconsin - Madison 2010 c Copyright by David R. Hatch 2010 All Rights Reserved i For Jen and Owen ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Paul Terry, who provided me with a research topic which I have found engaging and challenging, and has also offered an ideal

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  5. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  6. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  8. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  9. Particle Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Diagnostics - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear Energy

  10. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  11. Diagnostic compositions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burch, W.M.

    1981-07-28

    The invention discloses diagnostic compositions for use in obtaining images of a patient's lungs. The basic components of the composition of the invention are sodium pertechnetate which is radioactive and ethanol. This composition may be combusted and the resulting products cooled or alternatively the composition may be inserted into a pressure vessel with an aerosol. In both cases a gas like mixture results. A particular advantage is that a patient is able to breath the mixture of the invention in a normal way and does not need to undergo any training in inhalation.

  12. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  13. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  14. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  15. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  16. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  17. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  18. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  19. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  20. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  1. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  2. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  4. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  5. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  6. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  7. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  8. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  9. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  10. On-line diagnostic system for power generators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skormin, V.A.; Goodenough, G.S.; Huber, R.K.

    1996-12-31

    A novel approach to diagnostics of a power generator is developed. It utilizes readily available data acquired by the existing computer-based monitoring/control system. Diagnostic procedures detect various trends in the generator data and interpret these trends in the generator data and interpret these trends as changes in the generator performance caused by incipient failures. Results of trend analyses, subjected to statistical validation, facilitate failure prediction and identification thus providing the justification for service when needed. The procedures are incorporated in a diagnostic system implemented in a PC interfaced with the existing VAX-based process monitoring and control system. The diagnostic system provides graphical display of the diagnostic messages.

  11. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  12. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  13. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  14. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  15. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  16. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  17. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  18. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  19. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  20. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  5. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  6. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  7. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  8. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  9. Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartlein, R.A.; Hampton, R.N.

    2010-12-30

    This report summarizes an extensive effort made to understand how to effectively use the various diagnostic technologies to establish the condition of medium voltage underground cable circuits. These circuits make up an extensive portion of the electric delivery infrastructure in the United States. Much of this infrastructure is old and experiencing unacceptable failure rates. By deploying efficient diagnostic testing programs, electric utilities can replace or repair circuits that are about to fail, providing an optimal approach to improving electric system reliability. This is an intrinsically complex topic. Underground cable systems are not homogeneous. Cable circuits often contain multiple branches with different cable designs and a range of insulation materials. In addition, each insulation material ages differently as a function of time, temperature and operating environment. To complicate matters further, there are a wide variety of diagnostic technologies available for assessing the condition of cable circuits with a diversity of claims about the effectiveness of each approach. As a result, the benefits of deploying cable diagnostic testing programs have been difficult to establish, leading many utilities to avoid the their use altogether. This project was designed to help address these issues. The information provided is the result of a collaborative effort between Georgia Tech NEETRAC staff, Georgia Tech academic faculty, electric utility industry participants, as well as cable system diagnostic testing service providers and test equipment providers. Report topics include: •How cable systems age and fail, •The various technologies available for detecting potential failure sites, •The advantages and disadvantages of different diagnostic technologies, •Different approaches for utilities to employ cable system diagnostics. The primary deliverables of this project are this report, a Cable Diagnostic Handbook (a subset of this report) and an online

  10. X-Ray Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    X-Ray Diagnostics X-Ray Diagnostics Maintenance of existing devices and development of advanced concepts Contact John Oertel (505) 665-3246 Email Hot, dense matter produced by intense laser interaction with a solid target often produces x-rays with energies from 100 eV to those exceeding 100 keV. A suite of diagnostics and methods have been deployed at Trident to diagnose the x-ray emission from laser-matter interaction experiments, or to use the x-rays as a probe of dense matter. These

  11. Systems and Industry Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    systems and industry analyses Go to the NETL Gasification Systems Program's Systems and Industry Analyses Studies Technology & Cost/Performance Studies NETL Gasification Systems Program's Systems and Industry Analyses Studies provide invaluable information, and help to ensure that the technologies being developed are the best ones to develop. System studies are often used to compare competing technologies, determine the best way to integrate a technology with other technologies, and predict

  12. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Optical

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SPIE. 8850, Target Diagnostics Physics and Engineering for Inertial Confinement Fusion II, ... SPIE. 8850, Target Diagnostics Physics and Engineering for Inertial Confinement Fusion II, ...

  13. Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CDE Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering We support stockpile manufacturing, surveillance, applied and basic energy sciences, threat reduction, public health, the environment, and space exploration. Contact Us Group Leader Peter Stark Deputy Group Leader Tom Yoshida Group Office (505) 667-5740 X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy The Chemical Diagnostics and Engineering (C-CDE) Group combines engineering design with routine analytical services and state-of-the-art

  14. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  15. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  16. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Campaign Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models Campaigns...

  17. Proceedings: Substation equipment diagnostics conference

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lyons, K.L.

    1994-07-01

    This Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference held November 3--5, 1993, in New Orleans, Louisiana, reviewed the status of EPRI research on transmission substation diagnostics as well as that of universities, manufacturers, testing organizations, and other researchers. The papers presented were organized under four categories of diagnostics: Transformers, Circuit Breakers, Other Substation Equipment, and Diagnostic Systems.

  18. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  19. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  20. Precision Diagnostic System

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    pds Precision Diagnostic System For NIF to reach the goal of ignition, it needs to produce highly shaped pulses that are precisely controlled. NIF's precision diagnostic system (PDS) examines all the properties of a NIF beam to verify performance. It has the same final optics configuration as installed in the NIF target chamber but with the hardware for only one beam in order to measure beam characteristics. These false color images of NIF 2ω (green, left) and 3ω (blue, right) laser beams

  1. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  2. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  3. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  4. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  6. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  7. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  8. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  9. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  10. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  11. Heterodyne laser diagnostic system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Globig, Michael A.; Johnson, Michael A.; Wyeth, Richard W.

    1990-01-01

    The heterodyne laser diagnostic system includes, in one embodiment, an average power pulsed laser optical spectrum analyzer for determining the average power of the pulsed laser. In another embodiment, the system includes a pulsed laser instantaneous optical frequency measurement for determining the instantaneous optical frequency of the pulsed laser.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  14. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  15. BEAM SIMULATIONS USING VIRTUAL DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE DRIVER LINAC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. York; X. Wu; Q. Zhao

    2011-12-21

    End-to-end beam simulations for the driver linac have shown that the design meets the necessary performance requirements including having adequate transverse and longitudinal acceptances. However, to achieve reliable operational performance, the development of appropriate beam diagnostic systems and control room procedures are crucial. With limited R&D funding, beam simulations provide a cost effective tool to evaluate candidate beam diagnostic systems and to provide a critical basis for developing early commissioning and later operational activities. We propose to perform beam dynamic studies and engineering analyses to define the requisite diagnostic systems of the driver linac and through simulation to develop and test commissioning and operational procedures.

  16. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  17. DIAGNOSTICS OF BNL ERL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    POZDEYEV,E.; BEN-ZVI, I.; CAMERON, P.; GASSNER, D.; KAYRAN, D.; ET AL.

    2007-06-25

    The ERL Prototype project is currently under development at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. The ERL is expected to demonstrate energy recovery of high-intensity beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps, while preserving the emittance of bunches with a charge of a few nanocoulombs produced by a high-current SRF gun. To successfully accomplish this task the machine will include beam diagnostics that will be used for accurate characterization of the three dimensional beam phase space at the injection and recirculation energies, transverse and longitudinal beam matching, orbit alignment, beam current measurement, and machine protection. This paper outlines requirements on the ERL diagnostics and describes its setup and modes of operation.

  18. On-board Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    On-board Diagnostics for Big Data J. Zurawski ⇤ , S. Balasubramanian ⇤ , A. Brown ‡ , E. Kissel † , A. Lake ⇤ , M. Swany † , B. Tierney ⇤ and M. Zekauskas ‡ ⇤ Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA Email: {zurawski, sowmya, andy, bltierney}@es.net † Indiana University School of Informatics and Computing, Bloomington, IN, USA Email: {ezkissel, swany}@indiana.edu ‡ Internet2 Ann Arbor, MI, USA Email: {aaron,

  19. Gas-Phase Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Phase Diagnostics - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  20. ITER Diagnostic First Wal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Douglas Loesser, et. al.

    2012-09-21

    The ITER Diagnostic Division is responsible for designing and procuring the First Wall Blankets that are mounted on the vacuum vessel port plugs at both the upper and equatorial levels This paper will discuss the effects of the diagnostic aperture shape and configuration on the coolant circuit design. The DFW design is driven in large part by the need to conform the coolant arrangement to a wide variety of diagnostic apertures combined with the more severe heating conditions at the surface facing the plasma, the first wall. At the first wall, a radiant heat flux of 35W/cm2 combines with approximate peak volumetric heating rates of 8W/cm3 (equatorial ports) and 5W/cm3 (upper ports). Here at the FW, a fast thermal response is desirable and leads to a thin element between the heat flux and coolant. This requirement is opposed by the wish for a thicker FW element to accommodate surface erosion and other off-normal plasma events.

  1. Nuclear Diagnostics of ICF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Izumi, N; Ierche, R A; Moran, M J; Phillips, T W; Sangster, T C; Schmid, G J; Stoyer, M A; Disdier, L; Bourgade, J L; Rouyer, A; Fisher, R K; Gerggren, R R; Caldwen, S E; Faulkner, J R; Mack, J M; Oertel, J A; Young, C S; Glebov, V Y; Jaanimagi, P A; Meyerhofer, D D; Soures, J M; Stockel, C; Frenje, J A; Li, C K; Petrasso, R D

    2001-10-18

    In inertial confinement fusion (ICF), a high temperature and high density plasma is produced by the spherical implosion of a small capsule. A spherical target capsule is irradiated uniformly by a laser beam (direct irradiation) or x-rays from a high Z enclosure (hohlraum) that is irradiated by laser or ion beams (indirect irradiation). Then high-pressure ablation of the surface causes the fuel to be accelerated inward. Thermonuclear fusion reactions begin in the center region of the capsule as it is heated to sufficient temperature (10 keV) by the converging shocks (hot spot formation). During the stagnation of the imploded shell, the fuel in the shell region is compressed to high density ({approx} 10{sup 3} times solid density in fuel region). When these conditions are established, energy released by the initial nuclear reactions in center ''hot-spot'' region can heat up the cold ''fuel'' region and cause ignition. They are developing advanced nuclear diagnostics for imploding plasmas of the ignition campaign on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The NIF is a 1.8MJ, 192-beam glass laser system that is under construction at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. One objective of the NIF is to demonstrate ignition and gain in an inertial confinement fusion plasma. Extreme physical conditions characterize the imploded plasmas on the NIF. First, the thickness of the plasma, expressed by areal density (plasma density times radius), is large, up to {approx} 1 g/cm{sup 2}. Highly penetrating probes such as energetic neutrons, hard x-rays, or {gamma} rays are required to see deep inside the plasma. Second, the implosion time is quite short. The implosion process takes {approx} 20 ns and the duration of the fusion reaction is on the order of 100 picoseconds. To observe the time history of the nuclear reactions, time resolution better than 10 ps is required. Third, the size of the imploded plasma is quite small ({approx} 100 {micro}m). To see the shape of burning region

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  5. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  7. Instrumentation and diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakaishi, C.V.; Bedick, R.C.

    1990-12-01

    This Technology Status Report describes research and accomplishments for the Instrumentation and Diagnostics (I D) Projects within the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Program of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE). Process understanding and control can be improved through the development of advanced instrumentation and diagnostics. The thrust of the I D Projects is to further develop existing measurement and control techniques for application to advanced coal-based technologies. Project highlights are: an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) instrument has been developed to analyze trace elements in gasification and combustion process streams. An in situ two-color Mie scattering technique with LSS can simultaneously measure the size, velocity, and elemental composition of coal particles during combustion. A high-temperature, fluorescence thermometry technique has accurately measured gas temperatures during field testing in combustion and gasification environments. Expert systems have been developed to improve the control of advanced coal-based processes. Capacitance flowmeters were developed to determine the mass flowrate, solid volume fraction, and particle velocities of coal slurries. 32 refs., 9 figs.

  8. NIO1 diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaniol, B. Barbisan, M.; Pasqualotto, R.; Serianni, G.; Cavenago, M.; De Muri, M.; Mimo, A.

    2015-04-08

    The radio frequency ion source NIO1, jointly developed by Consorzio RFX and INFN-LNL, will generate a 60kV-135mA hydrogen negative ion beam, composed of 9 beamlets over an area of about 40 × 40 mm{sup 2}. This experiment will operate in continuous mode and in conditions similar to those foreseen for the larger ion sources of the Neutral Beam Injectors for ITER. The modular design of NIO1 is convenient to address the several still open important issues related to beam extraction, optics, and performance optimization. To this purpose a set of diagnostics is being implemented. Electric and water cooling plant related measurements will allow monitoring current, pressure, flow, and temperature. The plasma in the source will be characterized by emission spectroscopy, cavity ring-down and laser absorption spectroscopy. The accelerated beam will be analyzed with a fast emittance scanner, its intensity profile and divergence with beam emission spectroscopy and visible tomography. The power distribution of the beam on the calorimeter will be monitored by thermocouples and by an infrared camera. This contribution presents the implementation and initial operation of some of these diagnostics in the commissioning phase of the experiment, in particular the cooling water calorimetry and emission spectroscopy.

  9. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  10. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - X-ray Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SPIE. 8505, Target Diagnostics Physics and Engineering for Inertial Confinement Fusion, ... Proc. SPIE. 8144, Penetrating Radiation Systems and Applications XII, 81440N. (September ...

  11. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  12. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  13. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  16. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  17. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  18. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  19. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  20. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  1. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  2. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  4. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  5. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  6. Sandia Energy - Sensors & Optical Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Optical Diagnostics Home CRF Permalink Gallery CRF Article Chosen by The Journal of Chemical Physics to Commemorate 80th Anniversary CRF, Energy, Facilities, News, News & Events,...

  7. Control and Diagnostics for RTUs

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Control and Diagnostics for RTUs 2014 Building Technologies Office Peer Review Jim Braun, ... RTUs Audience: RTU manufacturers; control, monitoring, and service companies 2 ...

  8. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Nuclear

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Robert M. Malone et al., "Overview of the gamma reaction history diagnostic for the National Ignition Facility (NIF)." Proc. SPIE. 7652, International Optical Design Conference ...

  9. Diagnostic Studies | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Studies Diagnostic Studies 2010 DOE Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen Programs Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, June 7-11, 2010 -- Washington D.C. PDF icon...

  10. Diagnostics and Microelectronics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balch, J.W.

    1993-03-01

    This report discusses activities of the Diagnostics and Microelectronics thrust area which conducts activities in semiconductor devices and semiconductor fabrication technology for programs at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our multidisciplinary engineering and scientific staff use modern computational tools and semi-conductor microfabrication equipment to develop high-performance devices. Our work concentrates on three broad technologies of semiconductor microdevices: (1) silicon on III-V semiconductor microeletronics, (2) lithium niobate-based and III-V semiconductor-based photonics, and (3) silicon-based micromaching for application to microstructures and microinstruments. In FY-92, we worked on projects in seven areas, described in this report: novel photonic detectors; a wideband phase modulator; an optoelectronic terahertz beam system; the fabrication of microelectrode electrochemical sensors; diamond heatsinks; advanced micromachining technologies; and electrophoresis using silicon microchannels.

  11. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  12. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  13. Engine combustion and flow diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-31

    This informative publication discusses the application of diagnostic techniques to internal combustion engines. The papers included fall into three broad categories: flow diagnostics, combustion diagnostics, and fuel spray diagnostics. Contents include: controlling combustion in a spark ignition engine by quantitative fuel distribution; a model for converting SI engine flame arrival signals into flame contours; in-cylinder diesel flame imaging compared with numerical computations; ignition and early soot formation in a DI diesel engine using multiple 2-D imaging diagnostics; investigation of diesel sprays using diffraction-based droplet sizing; fuel distribution effects on the combustion of a direct-injection stratified-charge engine; and 2-D measurements of the liquid phase temperature in fuel sprays.

  14. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  15. Energy Analyses | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science & Innovation » Clean Coal » Crosscutting Research » Energy Analyses Energy Analyses The Office of Fossil Energy conducts energy analyses to assess the economics of advanced process concepts in support of near-zero emissions power plants. Environmental Activities. These analyses include potential environmental impacts (e.g., on water quality, air emissions, solid waste disposal, climate change) of fossil fuel use and large-scale deployment of different generations of CCS. Of

  16. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  18. Utility programs for substation diagnostics development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    This article is a brief overview of the opening remarks of the utility panel. These remarks developed a number of interesting substation diagnostic activities and concepts in which the electric utilities are engaged and outlined the considerations which must accompany development of diagnostic sensors and systems. These area include transformer diagnostics, circuit breaker diagnostics, and testing/cost of diagnostic systems.

  19. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  1. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  2. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  3. Magnetic diagnostics for equilibrium reconstructions with eddy...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Magnetic diagnostics for equilibrium reconstructions with eddy currents on the lithium tokamak experimenta) Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Magnetic diagnostics for...

  4. Electrochemistry Diagnostics at LBNL | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Electrochemistry Diagnostics at LBNL Electrochemistry Diagnostics at LBNL 2010 DOE Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen Programs Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, June...

  5. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  6. Market Analyses | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Combined Heat & Power Deployment » Market Analyses Market Analyses Need information on the market potential for combined heat and power (CHP) in the U.S.? These assessments and analyses cover a wide range of markets including commercial and institutional buildings and facilities, district energy, and industrial sites. The market potential for CHP at federal sites and in selected states/regions is also examined. Commercial CHP and Bioenergy Systems for Landfills and Wastewater Treatment

  7. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  8. Analysing

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Varying Alpha Theory Debaprasad Maity 1, 2 and Pisin Chen 1, 2, 3 1 Department of Physics and Center for Theoretical Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617,...

  9. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  10. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  11. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  12. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  13. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  14. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  15. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  16. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  17. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  18. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  20. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  1. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  2. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  3. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  4. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  5. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  6. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - X-ray Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    X-ray Diagnostics Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references ARIANE Active Readout in a Neutron Environment (gated x-ray imager) 90-89 (but uses DIM) LLNL ARIANE is a gated x-ray detector measuring x-ray output at yields up to ~1E16 neutrons from TCC. ARIANE uses gated MCP technology adapted to operate in this neutron regime by moving the detector to a position just outside of the target chamber wall. ARIANE is typically used

  7. Non- contacting capacitive diagnostic device

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ellison, Timothy

    2005-07-12

    A non-contacting capacitive diagnostic device includes a pulsed light source for producing an electric field in a semiconductor or photovoltaic device or material to be evaluated and a circuit responsive to the electric field. The circuit is not in physical contact with the device or material being evaluated and produces an electrical signal characteristic of the electric field produced in the device or material. The diagnostic device permits quality control and evaluation of semiconductor or photovoltaic device properties in continuous manufacturing processes.

  8. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  9. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  11. Drive Diagnostic Filter Wheel Control

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-07-17

    DrD Filter Wheel Control is National Instrument's Labview software that drives a Drive Diagnostic filter wheel. The software can drive the filter wheel between each end limit, detect the positive and negative limit and each home position and post the stepper motot values to an Excel spreadsheet. The software can also be used to cycle the assembly between the end limits.

  12. Axial diagnostic package for Z

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nash, T.J.; Derzon, M.S.; Chandler, G.

    1998-06-01

    The authors have developed and fielded an axial diagnostic package for the 20 MA, 100 ns, z-pinch driver Z. The package is used to diagnose dynamic hohlraum experiments which require an axial line of sight. The heart of the package is a reentrant cone originally used to diagnose ion-beam-driven hohlraums on PBFA-H. It has one diagnostic line of sight at 0 degrees, 4 at 6 degrees, and 4 at 9 degrees. In addition it has a number of viewing, alignment, and vacuum feedthrough ports. The front of the package sits approximately 5 feet from the pinch. This allows much closer proximity to the pinch, with inherently better resolution and signal, than is presently possible in viewing the pinch from the side. Debris that is preferentially directed along the axis is mitigated by two apertures for each line of sight, and by fast valves and imaging pinholes or cross slits for each diagnostic. In the initial run with this package they fielded a time resolved pinhole camera, a five-channel pinhole-apertured x-ray diode array, a bolometer, a spatially resolved time-integrated crystal spectrometer, and a spatially and temporally resolved crystal spectrometer. They present data obtained from these diagnostics in the dynamic hohlraum research conducted on Z.

  13. R&D ERL: Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gassner, D.

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Recovery Linac (ERL) prototype project is currently under development at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. The ERL is expected to demonstrate energy recovery of high intensity beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps, while preserving the emittance of bunches with a charge of a few nanocoulombs produced by a high current SRF gun. To successfully accomplish this task the machine will include beam diagnostics that will be used for accurate characterization of the three dimensional beam phase space at the injection and recirculation energies, transverse and longitudinal beam matching, orbit alignment, beam current measurement, and machine protection. This report outlines requirements on the ERL diagnostics and describes its setup and modes of operation. The BNL Prototype ERL is an R&D effort aimed at reducing risks and costs associated with the proposed RHIC II electron cooler and eRHIC collider. The ERL will serve as a test bed for developing and testing instrumentation and studying physics and technological issues relevant to very high current ERL's. The prototype ERL, mated to a high current SRF gun, is expected to demonstrate production and energy recovery of high intensity, low emittance beams with a current of up to a few hundred milliamps. To successfully accomplish this task the ERL will include beam diagnostics required to characterize and tune beam parameters, as well as for machine protection. A preliminary diagnostics plan was presented in earlier publications. In this report, we describe the diagnostics presently planned to provide the data needed to meet these goals.

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. Towards intelligent diagnostic system employing integration of mathematical and engineering model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Isa, Nor Ashidi Mat

    2015-05-15

    The development of medical diagnostic system has been one of the main research fields during years. The goal of the medical diagnostic system is to place a nosological system that could ease the diagnostic evaluation normally performed by scientists and doctors. Efficient diagnostic evaluation is essentials and requires broad knowledge in order to improve conventional diagnostic system. Several approaches on developing the medical diagnostic system have been designed and tested since the earliest 60s. Attempts on improving their performance have been made which utilizes the fields of artificial intelligence, statistical analyses, mathematical model and engineering theories. With the availability of the microcomputer and software development as well as the promising aforementioned fields, medical diagnostic prototypes could be developed. In general, the medical diagnostic system consists of several stages, namely the 1) data acquisition, 2) feature extraction, 3) feature selection, and 4) classifications stages. Data acquisition stage plays an important role in converting the inputs measured from the real world physical conditions to the digital numeric values that can be manipulated by the computer system. One of the common medical inputs could be medical microscopic images, radiographic images, magnetic resonance image (MRI) as well as medical signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG). Normally, the scientist or doctors have to deal with myriad of data and redundant to be processed. In order to reduce the complexity of the diagnosis process, only the significant features of the raw data such as peak value of the ECG signal or size of lesion in the mammogram images will be extracted and considered in the subsequent stages. Mathematical models and statistical analyses will be performed to select the most significant features to be classified. The statistical analyses such as principal component analysis and discriminant analysis as well

  16. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  17. Diagnostics - Rotating Wall Machine - UW Plasma Physics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Diagnostics UW Madison Line Tied Reconnection Experiment Diagnostics LTRX HomeResearch MissionLTRX DevicePhysics TopicsDiagnosticsLTRX GalleryLTRX People CPLA Home Directory Publications Links University of Wisconsin Physics Department Department of Energy National Science Foundation As the UW-LTRX was designed with the goal of employing a rotating solid wall along the boundary of the experimental volume, diagnostic access is necessarily much more constrained than in comparable devices. With the

  18. Spall diagnostic development for convergent geometries using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Research Org: Sandia National Laboratories Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: ... English Subject: 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION; DETECTION; DEFECTS; DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES

  19. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  20. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  1. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  2. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  3. Diagnostic techniques used in AVLIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Heestand, G.M.; Beeler, R.G.

    1992-12-01

    This is the second part of a general overview talk on the atomic vapor laser isotope separation (AVLIS) process. In this presentation the authors will discuss the diagnostic techniques used to measure key parameters in their atomic vapor including densities, temperature, velocities charge exchange rates and background ionization levels. Although these techniques have been extensively applied to their uranium program they do have applicability to other systems. Relevant data demonstrating these techniques will be shown.

  4. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Nuclear

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references EMP Electromagnetic Power 102-84 LLNL EMP measures the electromagnetic frequency spectrum in the target chamber. C. G. Brown et al., "Analysis of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Measurements in the National Ingition Facility's Target Bay and Chamber." International Fusion Science and Applications (IFSA) Bordeaux, France, September 12, 2011, LLNL-PROC-512731 GRH Time and

  5. Diagnostics Implemented on NIF - Optical

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Optical Diagnostic acronym Diangostic Port location Built and commisioned by Description of function Published references FABS Q31B FABS Q36B Full Aperture Backscatter Station 150-236 130-185 LLNL For coherent light sources, most of the light leaving the target is back or forward scattered by stimulated Brillouin or Raman scattering. Particularly for hohlraum targets, the laser energy that is not absorbed comes back into the wedge focus lenses (WFLs) and is measured by FABS on two representative

  6. Diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing ... Heavy Duty Fuels DISI Combustion HCCISCCI Fundamentals Spray Combustion Modeling ...

  7. Diagnostics for Fast Ignition Science

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    MacPhee, A; Akli, K; Beg, F; Chen, C; Chen, H; Clarke, R; Hey, D; Freeman, R; Kemp, A; Key, M; King, J; LePape, S; Link, A; Ma, T; Nakamura, N; Offermann, D; Ovchinnikov, V; Patel, P; Phillips, T; Stephens, R; Town, R; Wei, M; VanWoerkom, L; Mackinnon, A

    2008-05-06

    The concept for Electron Fast Ignition Inertial Confinement Fusion demands sufficient laser energy be transferred from the ignitor pulse to the assembled fuel core via {approx}MeV electrons. We have assembled a suite of diagnostics to characterize such transfer. Recent experiments have simultaneously fielded absolutely calibrated extreme ultraviolet multilayer imagers at 68 and 256eV; spherically bent crystal imagers at 4 and 8keV; multi-keV crystal spectrometers; MeV x-ray bremmstrahlung and electron and proton spectrometers (along the same line of sight); nuclear activation samples and a picosecond optical probe based interferometer. These diagnostics allow careful measurement of energy transport and deposition during and following laser-plasma interactions at extremely high intensities in both planar and conical targets. Augmented with accurate on-shot laser focal spot and pre-pulse characterization, these measurements are yielding new insight into energy coupling and are providing critical data for validating numerical PIC and hybrid PIC simulation codes in an area that is crucial for many applications, particularly fast ignition. Novel aspects of these diagnostics and how they are combined to extract quantitative data on ultra high intensity laser plasma interactions are discussed, together with implications for full-scale fast ignition experiments.

  8. ARM - Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models General...

  9. Proceedings: Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference IX

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2001-09-01

    Advanced monitoring and diagnostic sensors and systems are needed to provide reliable and accurate information for determining the condition of major transmission substation equipment. The ninth EPRI Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference highlighted the work of researchers, universities, manufacturers, and utilities in producing advanced monitoring and diagnostic equipment for substations.

  10. Proceedings: Tenth EPRI Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2002-06-01

    Advanced monitoring and diagnostic sensors and systems are needed to provide reliable and accurate information for determining the condition of major transmission substation equipment. The tenth EPRI Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference highlighted the work of researchers, universities, manufacturers, and utilities in producing advanced monitoring and diagnostic equipment for substations.

  11. Proceedings: Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference VIII

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2000-06-01

    Advanced monitoring and diagnostic sensors and systems are needed to provide reliable and accurate information for determining the condition of major transmission substation equipment. The eighth EPRI Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference highlighted the work of researchers, universities, manufacturers, and utilities in producing advanced monitoring and diagnostic equipment for substations.

  12. Multiphysics Engineering Analysis for an Integrated Design of ITER Diagnostic First Wall and Diagnostic Shield Module Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhai, Y.; Loesser, G.; Smith, M.; Udintsev, V.; Giacomin, T., T.; Khodak, A.; Johnson, D,; Feder, R,

    2015-07-01

    ITER diagnostic first walls (DFWs) and diagnostic shield modules (DSMs) inside the port plugs (PPs) are designed to protect diagnostic instrument and components from a harsh plasma environment and provide structural support while allowing for diagnostic access to the plasma. The design of DFWs and DSMs are driven by 1) plasma radiation and nuclear heating during normal operation 2) electromagnetic loads during plasma events and associate component structural responses. A multi-physics engineering analysis protocol for the design has been established at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and it was used for the design of ITER DFWs and DSMs. The analyses were performed to address challenging design issues based on resultant stresses and deflections of the DFW-DSM-PP assembly for the main load cases. ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-Vessel Components (SDC-IC) required for design by analysis and three major issues driving the mechanical design of ITER DFWs are discussed. The general guidelines for the DSM design have been established as a result of design parametric studies.

  13. Support for Cost Analyses on

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    35 Hartwell Ave Lexington, MA 02421 Support for Cost Analyses on Solar-Driven High Temperature Thermochemical Water-Splitting Cycles Final Report to: Department of Energy Order DE-DT0000951 Report prepared by TIAX LLC Reference D0535 February 22, 2011 Matt Kromer (Principal Investigator) Kurt Roth Rosalind Takata Paul Chin Copyright 2011, TIAX LLC Notice: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government

  14. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  15. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  16. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  17. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  18. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  19. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  20. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  1. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  3. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  4. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  5. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  6. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  7. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  8. Pawnee Nation Energy Option Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matlock, M.; Kersey, K.; Riding In, C.

    2009-07-31

    In 2003, the Pawnee Nation leadership identified the need for the tribe to comprehensively address its energy issues. During a strategic energy planning workshop a general framework was laid out and the Pawnee Nation Energy Task Force was created to work toward further development of the tribe’s energy vision. The overarching goals of the “first steps” project were to identify the most appropriate focus for its strategic energy initiatives going forward, and to provide information necessary to take the next steps in pursuit of the “best fit” energy options. Based on the request of Pawnee Nation’s Energy Task Force the research team, consisting Tribal personnel and Summit Blue Consulting, focused on a review of renewable energy resource development potential, funding sources and utility organizational along with energy savings options. Elements of the energy demand forecasting and characterization and demand side options review remained in the scope of work, but were only addressed at a high level. Description of Activities Performed Renewable Energy Resource Development Potential The research team reviewed existing data pertaining to the availability of biomass (focusing on woody biomass, agricultural biomass/bio-energy crops, and methane capture), solar, wind and hydropower resources on the Pawnee-owned lands. Using these data, combined with assumptions about costs and revenue streams, the research team performed preliminary feasibility assessments for each resource category. The research team also reviewed available funding resources and made recommendations to Pawnee Nation highlighting those resources with the greatest potential for financially-viable development, both in the near-term and over a longer time horizon. Energy Efficiency Options While this was not a major focus of the project, the research team highlighted common strategies for reducing energy use in buildings. The team also discussed the benefits of adopting a building energy code and

  9. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  10. Laser diagnostics | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser diagnostics Subscribe to RSS - Laser diagnostics The Multi-Point Thomson Scattering (MPTS) diagnostic system has been providing time dependent Te and ne profile measurements on NSTX for ten years. COLLOQUIUM: Controlling the Production and Performance of Materials at the Mesoscale: The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes (MaRIE) Capability The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes (MaRIE) project will provide capability that will address the control of performance and production

  11. Automated diagnostic kiosk for diagnosing diseases (Patent) ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    contained within a collection vial into the apparatus for automated diagnostic services. ... Save Share this Record Citation Formats MLA APA Chicago Bibtex Export Metadata Endnote ...

  12. SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conference: SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining SQUID-Based ... Research Org: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Sponsoring Org: LDRD Country of ...

  13. Parabola Alignment Diagnostic - Laboratory for Laser Energetics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Parabola Alignment Diagnostic - Laboratory for Laser Energetics Laboratory for Laser Energetics Logo Search Home Around the Lab Past Issues Past Quick Shots About Office of the ...

  14. Status of TMX upgrade diagnostics construction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hornady, R.S.; Davis, J.C.; Simonen, T.C.

    1981-07-20

    This report describes the status of the initial TMX Upgrade diagnostics and the state of development of additional diagnostics being prepared for later TMX Upgrade experiments. The initial diagnostic instrument set has been described in the TMX Upgrade Proposal. This set is required to get TMX Upgrade operational and to evaluate its initial performance. Additional diagnostic instruments are needed to then carry out the more detailed experiments outlined by the TMX Upgrade program milestones. The relation of these new measurements to the physics program is described in The TMX Upgrade Program Plan.

  15. SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer Diagnostics: Combining...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Cancer Diagnostics: Combining SQUID-Based Ultra-Low Field MRI and Superparamagnetic Relaxometry Citation Details In-Document Search Title: SQUID Instrumentation for Early Cancer ...

  16. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Documents: ARCGIS Shape...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ARCGIS Shape File, all Countries Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Documents: ARCGIS Shape File, all Countries...

  17. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  19. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  20. Photovoltaics: Life-cycle Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fthenakis V. M.; Kim, H.C.

    2009-10-02

    Life-cycle analysis is an invaluable tool for investigating the environmental profile of a product or technology from cradle to grave. Such life-cycle analyses of energy technologies are essential, especially as material and energy flows are often interwoven, and divergent emissions into the environment may occur at different life-cycle-stages. This approach is well exemplified by our description of material and energy flows in four commercial PV technologies, i.e., mono-crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, ribbon-silicon, and cadmium telluride. The same life-cycle approach is applied to the balance of system that supports flat, fixed PV modules during operation. We also discuss the life-cycle environmental metrics for a concentration PV system with a tracker and lenses to capture more sunlight per cell area than the flat, fixed system but requires large auxiliary components. Select life-cycle risk indicators for PV, i.e., fatalities, injures, and maximum consequences are evaluated in a comparative context with other electricity-generation pathways.

  1. Siting analyses for existing facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ford, K.; Mannan, M. [RMT/Jones and Neuse, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    1996-08-01

    The term {open_quotes}facility siting{close_quotes} refers to the spacial relationships between process units, process equipment within units, and the location of buildings relative to process equipment. Facility siting is an important consideration for the safe operation of manufacturing facilities. Paragraph (d) of the Process Safety Management (PSM) rule (29 CFR 1910.119) requires employers to document the codes and standards used for designing process equipment. This documentation includes facility siting. The regulation also requires employers to document that the design of the facility complies with recognized and generally accepted good engineering practices. In addition, paragraph (e) of the PSM regulation requires that facility siting be evaluated during Process Hazard Analyses. Facility siting issues may also need to be considered in emergency planning and response which are required under paragraph (n) of the PSM rule. This paper will demonstrate, by utilizing an example, one technique for evaluating whether buildings could be affected by a catastrophic incident and for determining if these buildings should be included in the PSM programs developed at the facility such as Process Hazard Analysis and Mechanical Integrity. In addition, this example will illustrate a methodology for determining if the buildings are designed and located in accordance with good engineering practice and industry standards.

  2. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  4. Pawnee Nation Energy Option Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matlock, M.; Kersey, K.; Riding In, C.

    2009-07-21

    Pawnee Nation of Oklahoma Energy Option Analyses In 2003, the Pawnee Nation leadership identified the need for the tribe to comprehensively address its energy issues. During a strategic energy planning workshop a general framework was laid out and the Pawnee Nation Energy Task Force was created to work toward further development of the tribe’s energy vision. The overarching goals of the “first steps” project were to identify the most appropriate focus for its strategic energy initiatives going forward, and to provide information necessary to take the next steps in pursuit of the “best fit” energy options. Description of Activities Performed The research team reviewed existing data pertaining to the availability of biomass (focusing on woody biomass, agricultural biomass/bio-energy crops, and methane capture), solar, wind and hydropower resources on the Pawnee-owned lands. Using these data, combined with assumptions about costs and revenue streams, the research team performed preliminary feasibility assessments for each resource category. The research team also reviewed available funding resources and made recommendations to Pawnee Nation highlighting those resources with the greatest potential for financially-viable development, both in the near-term and over a longer time horizon. Findings and Recommendations Due to a lack of financial incentives for renewable energy, particularly at the state level, combined mediocre renewable energy resources, renewable energy development opportunities are limited for Pawnee Nation. However, near-term potential exists for development of solar hot water at the gym, and an exterior wood-fired boiler system at the tribe’s main administrative building. Pawnee Nation should also explore options for developing LFGTE resources in collaboration with the City of Pawnee. Significant potential may also exist for development of bio-energy resources within the next decade. Pawnee Nation representatives should closely monitor

  5. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  6. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  7. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  8. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  9. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  10. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  11. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  12. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  13. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  14. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  15. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  16. Proceedings: Substation equipment diagnostics conference III. Proceedings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-03-01

    This Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference III was held to review the status of transmission substation diagnostics by EPRI, as well as that of the universities, manufacturers, testing organizations, and other researchers. The papers presented were organized under three categories of diagnostics: Transformers, Miscellaneous Equipment, and Systems. A reception on the evening of the first day of the Conference provided an opportunity for the researchers, utilities and manufacturers to display their equipment for the attendees. Separate abstracts have been indexed into the database for articles from this conference.

  17. Proceedings: Substation equipment diagnostics conference 6

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Traub, T.P.

    1998-09-01

    Substation Equipment Diagnostics Conference 6 was held to assemble, assess and communicate information on the latest diagnostic techniques, test devices, and systems for substation equipment. It focused on the latest in diagnostic equipment and techniques being developed by EPRI and others in research programs, as well as the equipment and programs now available and in service by electric utilities. The conference brought together the views of researchers, manufacturers and users. The papers presented were organized under three categories: Transformers, Circuit Breakers and Other Substation Equipment, and Communications/Data Management/System Integration. Exhibit booths were provided for attendees to obtain detailed information about vendor products or services.

  18. Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units - 2014 BTO Peer Review Presenter: Jim Braun, Purdue University (The ...

  19. Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Diagnostics for the biased electrode experiment on NSTX A linear array of four ...

  20. Diagnostic and Prognostic Analysis of Battery Performance & Aging...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    es124gering2012o.pdf More Documents & Publications Diagnostic Testing and Analysis Toward Understanding Aging Mechanisms and Related Path Dependence Diagnostic Testing and ...

  1. Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock initiation in...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock initiation in energetic materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast laser diagnostics for studies of shock ...

  2. In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation in electrodes In-situ characterization and diagnostics of mechanical degradation in electrodes 2011 DOE Hydrogen ...

  3. Applying Diagnostics to Enhance Cable System Reliability (Cable...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Many large utilities in North America now deploy diagnostics or have changed their diagnostic testing approach as a result of this project. Previous to the CDFI, different ...

  4. Princeton Plasma Physics Lab - Laser diagnostics

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    high-resolution-diagnostic-system-national-ignition-facility

  5. Diagnostics on Demand | GE Global Research

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The "Diagnostics on Demand" Infectious Disease Test Kit Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share (Opens in new ...

  6. Practical Diagnostics for Evaluating Residential Commissioning Metrics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wray, Craig; Walker, Iain; Siegel, Jeff; Sherman, Max

    2002-06-11

    In this report, we identify and describe 24 practical diagnostics that are ready now to evaluate residential commissioning metrics, and that we expect to include in the commissioning guide. Our discussion in the main body of this report is limited to existing diagnostics in areas of particular concern with significant interactions: envelope and HVAC systems. These areas include insulation quality, windows, airtightness, envelope moisture, fan and duct system airflows, duct leakage, cooling equipment charge, and combustion appliance backdrafting with spillage. Appendix C describes the 83 other diagnostics that we have examined in the course of this project, but that are not ready or are inappropriate for residential commissioning. Combined with Appendix B, Table 1 in the main body of the report summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of all 107 diagnostics. We first describe what residential commissioning is, its characteristic elements, and how one might structure its process. Our intent in this discussion is to formulate and clarify these issues, but is largely preliminary because such a practice does not yet exist. Subsequent sections of the report describe metrics one can use in residential commissioning, along with the consolidated set of 24 practical diagnostics that the building industry can use now to evaluate them. Where possible, we also discuss the accuracy and usability of diagnostics, based on recent laboratory work and field studies by LBNL staff and others in more than 100 houses. These studies concentrate on evaluating diagnostics in the following four areas: the DeltaQ duct leakage test, air-handler airflow tests, supply and return grille airflow tests, and refrigerant charge tests. Appendix A describes those efforts in detail. In addition, where possible, we identify the costs to purchase diagnostic equipment and the amount of time required to conduct the diagnostics. Table 1 summarizes these data. Individual equipment costs for the 24

  7. Plasma diagnostics | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    diagnostics Subscribe to RSS - Plasma diagnostics The tools used by researchers to assess the characteristics of superheated and electrically charged gases known as plasmas. PPPL intern creates software for snapshot of plasma in NSTX-U When most of today's college interns were still in kindergarten, Max Wallace was working for more than a decade as a programmer for various companies, founding a hackerspace in Charlotte, North Carolina, and writing code for start-ups in Silicon Valley. Read more

  8. Development of fluorescence lifetime diagnostic. Project accomplishments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    summary (Attachment 1), Revision 1 (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Development of fluorescence lifetime diagnostic. Project accomplishments summary (Attachment 1), Revision 1 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of fluorescence lifetime diagnostic. Project accomplishments summary (Attachment 1), Revision 1 Ă— You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) SciTech Connect. This site is a product of DOE's Office of Scientific and

  9. Applying Diagnostics to Enhance Cable System Reliability (Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative, Phase II)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartlein, Rick; Hampton, Nigel; Perkel, Josh; Hernandez, JC; Elledge, Stacy; del Valle, Yamille; Grimaldo, Jose; Deku, Kodzo

    2015-07-25

    The Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative (CDFI) played a significant and powerful role in clarifying the concerns and understanding the benefits of performing diagnostic tests on underground power cable systems. This project focused on the medium and high voltage cable systems used in utility transmission and distribution (T&D) systems. While many of the analysis techniques and interpretations are applicable to diagnostics and cable systems outside of T&D, areas such as generating stations (nuclear, coal, wind, etc.) and other industrial environments were not the focus. Many large utilities in North America now deploy diagnostics or have changed their diagnostic testing approach as a result of this project. Previous to the CDFI, different diagnostic technology providers individually promoted their approach as the “the best” or “the only” means of detecting cable system defects.

  10. ORISE: Statistical Analyses of Worker Health

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Statistical Analyses Statistical analyses at the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) support ongoing programs involving medical surveillance of workers and other populations, as well as occupational epidemiology and research. ORISE emphasizes insightful and accurate analysis, practical interpretation of results and clear, easily read reports. All analyses are preceded by extensive data scrubbing and verification. ORISE's approach relies on applying appropriate methods of

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  12. Structural and Evolutionary Analyses Show Unique Stabilization...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Structural and Evolutionary Analyses Show Unique Stabilization Strategies in the Type IV Pili of Clostridium difficile Authors: Piepenbrink, Kurt H. ; Maldarelli, Grace A. ; ...

  13. DISPLAYING AND INTERPRETING FLUID INCLUSION STRATIGRAPHY ANALYSES...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    DISPLAYING AND INTERPRETING FLUID INCLUSION STRATIGRAPHY ANALYSES ON MUDLOG GRAPHS Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings:...

  14. Lifecycle Assessments and Sustainability Analyses | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to our research and development efforts. They provide an understanding of the economic, technical, and even global impacts of renewable technologies. These analyses also...

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  16. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  17. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  18. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  19. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  20. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Radiation Protection

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  2. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Environmental Restoration

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  3. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Nuclear Safety Specialist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  4. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Facility Representative

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  5. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Technical Program Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  6. FAQS Job Task Analyses- General Technical Base

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  7. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Quality Assurance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  8. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Weapons Quality Assurance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  9. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Environmental Compliance

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  10. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Deactivation and Decommissioning

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  11. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Occupational Safety

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  12. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Emergency Management

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  13. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Technical Training

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  14. FAQS Job Task Analyses- DOE Aviation Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  15. Functional Area Qualification Standard Job Task Analyses

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  16. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Safeguards and Security

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  17. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Chemical Processing

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  18. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Construction Management

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  19. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Industrial Hygiene

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  20. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Criticality Safety

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  1. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  2. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  3. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  5. Technical Report: Rayleigh Scattering Combustion Diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adams, Wyatt; Hecht, Ethan

    2015-07-29

    A laser Rayleigh scattering (LRS) temperature diagnostic was developed over 8 weeks with the goal of studying oxy-combustion of pulverized coal char in high temperature reaction environments with high concentrations of carbon dioxide. Algorithms were developed to analyze data collected from the optical diagnostic system and convert the information to temperature measurements. When completed, the diagnostic will allow for the kinetic gasification rates of the oxy-combustion reaction to be obtained, which was previously not possible since the high concentrations of high temperature CO2 consumed thermocouples that were used to measure flame temperatures inside the flow reactor where the combustion and gasification reactions occur. These kinetic rates are important for studying oxycombustion processes suitable for application as sustainable energy solutions.

  6. The year book of diagnostic radiology 1981

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whitehouse, W.M.; Adams, D.F.; Bookstein, J.J.; Gabrielsen, T.O.; Holt, J.F.; Martel, W.; Silver, T.M.; Thornbury, J.R.

    1981-01-01

    The 1981 edition of the Year Book of Diagnostic Radiology fulfills the standards of excellence established by previous volumes in this series. The abstracts were carefully chosen, are concise, and are well illustrated. The book is recommended for all practicing radiologists: for the resident it is a good source from which to select articles to be carefully studied, and as review source before board examinations; for the subspecialist it provides a means to maintain contact with all areas of diagnostic radiology; and for the general radiologist, it is a convenient and reliable guide to new developments in the specialty.

  7. Dichroic beamsplitter for high energy laser diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    LaFortune, Kai N; Hurd, Randall; Fochs, Scott N; Rotter, Mark D; Hackel, Lloyd

    2011-08-30

    Wavefront control techniques are provided for the alignment and performance optimization of optical devices. A Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor can be used to measure the wavefront distortion and a control system generates feedback error signal to optics inside the device to correct the wavefront. The system can be calibrated with a low-average-power probe laser. An optical element is provided to couple the optical device to a diagnostic/control package in a way that optimizes both the output power of the optical device and the coupling of the probe light into the diagnostics.

  8. Diagnostic techniques for magnetically confined high-temperature plasmas. II. Magnetic and electric measurements, charge-exchange diagnostics, particle-beam diagnostics, and fusion-product measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldston, R.J.

    1982-07-01

    A general overview of the four diagnostic techniques is given. Prospects for each technique are discussed. (MOW)

  9. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  10. SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Jakob, Christian

    2008-01-15

    Forcing data, suitable for use with single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs), have been derived from NWP analyses for the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites of Manus Island and Nauru.

  11. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  12. High bandwidth vapor density diagnostic system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Globig, Michael A.; Story, Thomas W.

    1992-01-01

    A high bandwidth vapor density diagnostic system for measuring the density of an atomic vapor during one or more photoionization events. The system translates the measurements from a low frequency region to a high frequency, relatively noise-free region in the spectrum to provide improved signal to noise ratio.

  13. The Neutron Imaging Diagnostic at NIF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merrill, F E; Buckles, R; Clark, D; Danly, C R; Drury, O B; Dzenitis, J M; Fatherly, V E; Fittinghoff, D N; Gallegos, R; Grim, G P; Guler, N; Loomis, E N; Lutz, S; Malone, R M; Martinson, D D; Mares, D; Morley, D J; Morgan, G L; Oertel, J A; Tregillis, I L; Volegov, P L; Weiss, P B; Wilde, C H

    2012-10-01

    A neutron imaging diagnostic has recently been commissioned at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This new system is an important diagnostic tool for inertial fusion studies at the NIF for measuring the size and shape of the burning DT plasma during the ignition stage of ICF implosions. The imaging technique utilizes a pinhole neutron aperture, placed between the neutron source and a neutron detector. The detection system measures the two dimensional distribution of neutrons passing through the pinhole. This diagnostic has been designed to collect two images at two times. The long flight path for this diagnostic, 28 m, results in a chromatic separation of the neutrons, allowing the independently timed images to measure the source distribution for two neutron energies. Typically the first image measures the distribution of the 14 MeV neutrons and the second image of the 6-12 MeV neutrons. The combination of these two images has provided data on the size and shape of the burning plasma within the compressed capsule, as well as a measure of the quantity and spatial distribution of the cold fuel surrounding this core.

  14. The neutron imaging diagnostic at NIF (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merrill, F. E.; Clark, D. D.; Danly, C. R.; Drury, O. B.; Fatherley, V. E.; Gallegos, R.; Grim, G. P.; Guler, N.; Loomis, E. N.; Martinson, D. D.; Mares, D.; Morley, D. J.; Morgan, G. L.; Oertel, J. A.; Tregillis, I. L.; Volegov, P. L.; Wilde, C. H.; Wilson, D. C.; Bower, D.; Dzenitis, J. M.; and others

    2012-10-15

    A neutron imaging diagnostic has recently been commissioned at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This new system is an important diagnostic tool for inertial fusion studies at the NIF for measuring the size and shape of the burning DT plasma during the ignition stage of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) implosions. The imaging technique utilizes a pinhole neutron aperture, placed between the neutron source and a neutron detector. The detection system measures the two dimensional distribution of neutrons passing through the pinhole. This diagnostic has been designed to collect two images at two times. The long flight path for this diagnostic, 28 m, results in a chromatic separation of the neutrons, allowing the independently timed images to measure the source distribution for two neutron energies. Typically the first image measures the distribution of the 14 MeV neutrons and the second image of the 6-12 MeV neutrons. The combination of these two images has provided data on the size and shape of the burning plasma within the compressed capsule, as well as a measure of the quantity and spatial distribution of the cold fuel surrounding this core.

  15. Method and apparatus for holographic wavefront diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toeppen, J.S.

    1995-04-25

    A wavefront diagnostic apparatus has an optic and a measuring system. The optic forms a holographic image in response to a beam of light striking a hologram formed on a surface of the optic. The measuring system detects the position of the array of holographic images and compares the positions of the array of holographic images to a reference holographic image. 3 figs.

  16. Method and apparatus for holographic wavefront diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toeppen, John S.

    1995-01-01

    A wavefront diagnostic apparatus has an optic and a measuring system. The optic forms a holographic image in response to a beam of light striking a hologram formed on a surface of the optic. The measuring system detects the position of the array of holographic images and compares the positions of the array of holographic images to a reference holographic image.

  17. Substation evaluation using Diagnostic Logic System (DIALOG)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andre, W.L.

    1989-08-01

    This project investigated the feasibility of applying a Diagnostic Logic System (DIAGLOG) to evaluate substation operation. The purpose was to see if a determination can be made as to whether the equipment in a substation operated correctly or not when an operating event occurred. The work was directed toward modifying an already proven diagnostic system to create a simplified procedure for describing the operation of substation equipment. Special operating tables or modules of logic were identified for describing relay and breaker operations. The resulting model composed of all the modules connected together is used to evaluate the actual observations available at the substation, and to compare them with what the substation should have produced. The report covers the diagnostic approach used, information on how to construct the modules and examples of diagnosis. Also covered are discussions on the special features of substations that offer a challenge to performing diagnostics. Included in the report are the results of modeling a typical substation and several notes are provided along with an initial library of typical modules which were developed in modeling one of the substations belonging to the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. This substation served as a feasibility demonstrator. 15 figs.

  18. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  19. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  20. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  1. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  2. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  3. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  4. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  5. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  6. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  7. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  8. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  9. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  10. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  11. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  12. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  13. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  14. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  15. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  16. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  17. Engineer Russ Feder leads development of diagnostic tools for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Engineer Russ Feder leads development of diagnostic tools for US ITER as physicist Dave ... Feder leads PPPL's development of all diagnostic tools for US ITER, which manages U.S. ...

  18. Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling Tool Development of a High-Temperature Diagnostics-While-Drilling Tool This report documents work performed in the ...

  19. Main challenges for ITER optical diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vukolov, K. Yu.; Orlovskiy, I. I.; Alekseev, A. G.; Borisov, A. A.; Andreenko, E. N.; Kukushkin, A. B.; Lisitsa, V. S.; Neverov, V. S.

    2014-08-21

    The review is made of the problems of ITER optical diagnostics. Most of these problems will be related to the intensive neutron radiation from hot plasma. At a high level of radiation loads the most types of materials gradually change their properties. This effect is most critical for optical diagnostics because of degradation of optical glasses and mirrors. The degradation of mirrors, that collect the light from plasma, basically will be induced by impurity deposition and (or) sputtering by charge exchange atoms. Main attention is paid to the search of glasses for vacuum windows and achromatic lens which are stable under ITER irradiation conditions. The last results of irradiation tests in nuclear reactor of candidate silica glasses KU-1, KS-4V and TF 200 are presented. An additional problem is discussed that deals with the stray light produced by multiple reflections from the first wall of the intense light emitted in the divertor plasma.

  20. Optical mixing as a plasma diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forman, P.R.; Riesenfeld, W.

    1980-03-01

    The nonlinear interaction of electromagnetic waves in a plasma are examined as the basis for a new and useful diagnostic tool. In particular, we consider the Raman-Induced Kerr Effect (RIKE) in a magnetic field-free plasma, and evaluate the characteristics of various laser sources and detecting equipment necessary for the implementation of a sensitive RIKE scattering system. Our conclusion is that the present state of technology permits the design of promising diagnostics systems of this type. Finally, we express reasonable conjectures on the generalization of the effect to magnetoplasmas, in which the measurement could lead to the determination not only of density, but also of the magnitude and direction of the imbedded magnetic field.

  1. Improved optical diagnostics for the NOVA laser

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fernandez, J.C.; Berggren, R.R.; Bradley, K.S.; Hsing, W.W.; Gomez, C.C.; Cobble, J.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper describes three diagnostics for detecting optical scatter from NOVA laser targets. Detecting such scatter can help not only the authors` understanding of plasma instabilities in laser plasmas, but also their efforts at plasma characterization, particularly hohlraum plasmas. These diagnostics are: the Full Aperture Backscatter Station (FABS), presently being built; the Oblique Scatter Array (OSA), just starting operation; and the Axial Imager, also just starting operation. FABS will allow imaging at high resolution of Brillouin and Raman backscatter. The OSA allows a quantitative measurement of Brillouin and Raman scatter in many directions (assuming the target allows the scatter to escape). The axial imager allows high-resolution imaging of Brillouin, Two-Plasmon Decay and Raman scatter emitted towards the East direction, which is along the symmetry axis of the NOVA laser beams.

  2. Improved optical diagnostics for the NOVA laser

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fernandez, J.C.; Berggren, R.R.; Bradley, K.S.; Hsing, W.W.; Gomez, C.C.; Cobble, J.A.; Wilke, M.D. )

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes three diagnostics detecting optical scatter from NOVA laser targets. Detecting such scatter can help to understand instabilities in laser plasmas and to characterize such plasmas, particularly hohlraum plasmas. These diagnostics are the full aperture backscatter station (FABS), presently being built; the oblique scatter array (OSA), just starting operation; and the axial imager, also just starting operation. FABS will allow imaging at high resolution of Brillouin and Raman backscatter. The OSA provides a quantitative measurement of Brillouin and Raman scatter in many directions. The axial imager allows high-resolution imaging of Brillouin, two-plasmon decay and Raman scatter emitted toward the direction of the symmetry axis of the NOVA laser beams.

  3. Automated diagnostic kiosk for diagnosing diseases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Regan, John Frederick; Birch, James Michael

    2014-02-11

    An automated and autonomous diagnostic apparatus that is capable of dispensing collection vials and collections kits to users interesting in collecting a biological sample and submitting their collected sample contained within a collection vial into the apparatus for automated diagnostic services. The user communicates with the apparatus through a touch-screen monitor. A user is able to enter personnel information into the apparatus including medical history, insurance information, co-payment, and answer a series of questions regarding their illness, which is used to determine the assay most likely to yield a positive result. Remotely-located physicians can communicate with users of the apparatus using video tele-medicine and request specific assays to be performed. The apparatus archives submitted samples for additional testing. Users may receive their assay results electronically. Users may allow the uploading of their diagnoses into a central databank for disease surveillance purposes.

  4. Building Diagnostic Market Deployment - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, Srinivas; Gayeski, N.

    2012-04-01

    The work described in this report was done as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and KGS Building LLC (KGS). PNNL and KGS both believe that the widespread adoption of automated fault de4tection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools will result in significant reduction to energy and peak energy consumption. The report provides an introduction, and summary of the various tasks performed under the CRADA. The CRADA project had three major focus areas: 1) Technical Assistance for Whole Building Energy Diagnostician (WBE) Commercialization, 2) Market Transfer of the Outdoor Air/Economizer Diagnostician (OAE), and 3) Development and Deployment of Automated Diagnostics to Improve Large Commercial Building Operations.

  5. Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics Novel Multidimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-Well Diagnostics presentation at the April 2013 peer review meeting held in Denver, Colorado. tang_peer2013.pdf (1.14 MB) More Documents & Publications Novel Multi-dimensional Tracers for Geothermal Inter-wall Diagnostics Use of Tracers to Characterize Fractures in Engineered Geothermal

  6. Diagnostics - Plasma Couette Experiment - Cary Forest Group - UW Plasma

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Physics Diagnostics UW Madison Plasma Couette Experiment Diagnostics PCX HomeResearch MissionPhysics TopicsDeviceDiagnosticsContacts LinksPCX People CPLA Home Directory Publications Links University of Wisconsin Physics Department Department of Energy National Science Foundation Diagnostics A combination Langmuir/Mach probe is radially scanned approximately 2.5" above the bottom endcap set of magnet & electrode rings. Electron temperature and plasma density is measured using a

  7. Diagnostics from a 1-D atmospheric column

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flatley, J.M.; Mace, G.

    1996-04-01

    Various diagnostics were computed from an array of radiosondes during an intensive field operation arranged by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The network data was centered around the site at Lamont, Oklahoma. The apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink were computed and compared to the kinematic vertical velocity for both real data and the mesoscale analysis and prediction system. Three different case studies of various weathe regimes were examined.

  8. Building Systems Diagnostics and Predictive Maintenance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, Srinivas; Pratt, Robert G.; Braun, J.

    2001-01-01

    There has been an increasing interest in the development of methods and tools for automated fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) of building systems and components in the 1990s. This chapter, written for the CRC Handbook for HVAC&R Engineering, will describe the status of these methods and and methodologies as applied to HVAC&R and building systems and present certain illustrative case studies.

  9. Diagnostic examination of Generation 2 lithium-ion cells and assessment ofperformance degradation mechanisms.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abraham, D. P.; Dees, D. W.; Knuth, J.; Reynolds, E.; Gerald, R.; Hyung,Y.-E.; Belharouak, I.; Stoll, M.; Sammann, E.; MacLaren, S.; Haasch, R.; Twesten,R.; Sardela, M.; Battaglia, V.; Cairns, E.; Kerr, J.; Kerlau, M.; Kostecki, R.; Lei,J.; McCarthy, K.; McLarnon, F.; Reimer, J.; Richardson, T.; Ross, P.; Sloop,S.; Song, X.; Zhuang, V.; Balasubramanian, M.; McBreen, J.; Chung, K.-Y.; Yang, X.Q.; Yoon, W.-S.; Norin, L.

    2005-07-15

    The Advanced Technology Development (ATD) Program is a multilaboratory effort to assist industrial developers of high-power lithium-ion batteries overcome the barriers of cost, calendar life, abuse tolerance, and low-temperature performance so that this technology may be rendered practical for use in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Included in the ATD Program is a comprehensive diagnostics effort conducted by researchers at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The goals of this effort are to identify and characterize processes that limit lithium-ion battery performance and calendar life, and ultimately to describe the specific mechanisms that cause performance degradation. This report is a compilation of the diagnostics effort conducted since spring 2001 to characterize Generation 2 ATD cells and cell components. The report is divided into a main body and appendices. Information on the diagnostic approach, details from individual diagnostic techniques, and details on the phenomenological model used to link the diagnostic data to the loss of 18650-cell electrochemical performance are included in the appendices. The main body of the report includes an overview of the 18650-cell test data, summarizes diagnostic data and modeling information contained in the appendices, and provides an assessment of the various mechanisms that have been postulated to explain performance degradation of the 18650 cells during accelerated aging. This report is intended to serve as a ready reference on ATD Generation 2 18650-cell performance and provide information on the tools for diagnostic examination and relevance of the acquired data. A comprehensive account of our experimental procedures and resulting data may be obtained by consulting the various references listed in the text. We hope that this report will serve as a roadmap for the diagnostic analyses of other lithium-ion technologies being

  10. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  11. Longitudinal Diagnostics for Short Electron Beam Bunches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loos, H.; ,

    2010-06-11

    Single-pass free electron lasers require high peak currents from ultra-short electron bunches to reach saturation and an accurate measurement of bunch length and longitudinal bunch profile is necessary to control the bunch compression process from low to high beam energy. The various state-of-the-art diagnostics methods from ps to fs time scales using coherent radiation detection, RF deflection, and other techniques are presented. The use of linear accelerators as drivers for free electron lasers (FEL) and the advent of single-pass (SASE) FELs has driven the development of a wide range of diagnostic techniques for measuring the length and longitudinal distribution of short and ultra-short electron bunches. For SASE FELs the radiation power and the length of the undulator needed to achieve saturation depend strongly on the charge density of the electron beam. In the case of X-ray FELs, this requires the accelerator to produce ultra-high brightness beams with micron size transverse normalized emittances and peak currents of several kA through several stages of magnetic bunch compression. Different longitudinal diagnostics are employed to measure the peak current and bunch profile along these stages. The measurement techniques can be distinguished into different classes. Coherent methods detect the light emitted from the beam by some coherent radiation process (spectroscopic measurement), or directly measure the Coulomb field traveling with the beam (electro-optic). Phase space manipulation techniques map the time coordinate onto a transverse dimension and then use conventional transverse beam diagnostics (transverse deflector, rf zero-phasing). Further methods measure the profile or duration of an incoherent light pulse emitted by the bunch at wavelengths much shorted than the bunch length (streak camera, fluctuation technique) or modulate the electron beam at an optical wavelength and then generate a narrow bandwidth radiation pulse with the longitudinal profile of

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  13. Reliability of chemical analyses of water samples

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beardon, R.

    1989-11-01

    Ground-water quality investigations require reliable chemical analyses of water samples. Unfortunately, laboratory analytical results are often unreliable. The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project`s solution to this problem was to establish a two phase quality assurance program for the analysis of water samples. In the first phase, eight laboratories analyzed three solutions of known composition. The analytical accuracy of each laboratory was ranked and three laboratories were awarded contracts. The second phase consists of on-going monitoring of the reliability of the selected laboratories. The following conclusions are based on two years experience with the UMTRA Project`s Quality Assurance Program. The reliability of laboratory analyses should not be taken for granted. Analytical reliability may be independent of the prices charged by laboratories. Quality assurance programs benefit both the customer and the laboratory.

  14. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

    2006-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

  15. Non-traditional ion beam analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, B.L.; Knapp, J.A.; Banks, J.C.; Barbour, J.C.; Walsh, D.S.

    1993-02-01

    Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS), elastic recoil detection (ERD), proton induced x-ray emission (PIXE) and nuclear reaction analysis (NRA) are among the most commonly used, or traditional, ion beam analysis (IBA) techniques. In this review, several adaptations of these IBA techniques are described where either the approach used in the analysis or the application area is clearly non-traditional or unusual. These analyses and/or applications are summarized in this paper.

  16. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  17. Advanced Diagnostics for High Pressure Spray Combustion.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Skeen, Scott A.; Manin, Julien Luc; Pickett, Lyle M.

    2014-06-01

    The development of accurate predictive engine simulations requires experimental data to both inform and validate the models, but very limited information is presently available about the chemical structure of high pressure spray flames under engine- relevant conditions. Probing such flames for chemical information using non- intrusive optical methods or intrusive sampling techniques, however, is challenging because of the physical and optical harshness of the environment. This work details two new diagnostics that have been developed and deployed to obtain quantitative species concentrations and soot volume fractions from a high-pressure combusting spray. A high-speed, high-pressure sampling system was developed to extract gaseous species (including soot precursor species) from within the flame for offline analysis by time-of-flight mass spectrometry. A high-speed multi-wavelength optical extinction diagnostic was also developed to quantify transient and quasi-steady soot processes. High-pressure sampling and offline characterization of gas-phase species formed following the pre-burn event was accomplished as well as characterization of gas-phase species present in the lift-off region of a high-pressure n-dodecane spray flame. For the initial samples discussed in this work several species were identified, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH); however, quantitative mole fractions were not determined. Nevertheless, the diagnostic developed here does have this capability. Quantitative, time-resolved measurements of soot extinction were also accomplished and the novel use of multiple incident wavelengths proved valuable toward characterizing changes in soot optical properties within different regions of the spray flame.

  18. TEDANN: Turbine engine diagnostic artificial neural network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kangas, L.J.; Greitzer, F.L.; Illi, O.J. Jr.

    1994-03-17

    The initial focus of TEDANN is on AGT-1500 fuel flow dynamics: that is, fuel flow faults detectable in the signals from the Electronic Control Unit`s (ECU) diagnostic connector. These voltage signals represent the status of the Electro-Mechanical Fuel System (EMFS) in response to ECU commands. The EMFS is a fuel metering device that delivers fuel to the turbine engine under the management of the ECU. The ECU is an analog computer whose fuel flow algorithm is dependent upon throttle position, ambient air and turbine inlet temperatures, and compressor and turbine speeds. Each of these variables has a representative voltage signal available at the ECU`s J1 diagnostic connector, which is accessed via the Automatic Breakout Box (ABOB). The ABOB is a firmware program capable of converting 128 separate analog data signals into digital format. The ECU`s J1 diagnostic connector provides 32 analog signals to the ABOB. The ABOB contains a 128 to 1 multiplexer and an analog-to-digital converter, CP both operated by an 8-bit embedded controller. The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) developed and published the hardware specifications as well as the micro-code for the ABOB Intel EPROM processor and the internal code for the multiplexer driver subroutine. Once the ECU analog readings are converted into a digital format, the data stream will be input directly into TEDANN via the serial RS-232 port of the Contact Test Set (CTS) computer. The CTS computer is an IBM compatible personal computer designed and constructed for tactical use on the battlefield. The CTS has a 50MHz 32-bit Intel 80486DX processor. It has a 200MB hard drive and 8MB RAM. The CTS also has serial, parallel and SCSI interface ports. The CTS will also host a frame-based expert system for diagnosing turbine engine faults (referred to as TED; not shown in Figure 1).

  19. Real time PV manufacturing diagnostic system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kochergin, Vladimir; Crawford, Michael A.

    2015-09-01

    The main obstacle Photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing at present is the higher cost of PV energy compared to that of fossil energy. While solar cell efficiencies continue to make incremental gains these improvements are so far insufficient to drive PV costs down to match that of fossil energy. Improved in-line diagnostics however, has the potential to significantly increase the productivity and reduce cost by improving the yield of the process. On this Phase I/Phase II SBIR project MicroXact developed and demonstrated at CIGS pilot manufacturing line a high-throughput in-line PV manufacturing diagnostic system, which was verified to provide fast and accurate data on the spatial uniformity of thickness, an composition of the thin films comprising the solar cell as the solar cell is processed reel-to-reel. In Phase II project MicroXact developed a stand-alone system prototype and demonstrated the following technical characteristics: 1) ability of real time defect/composition inconsistency detection over 60cm wide web at web speeds up to 3m/minute; 2) Better than 1mm spatial resolution on 60cm wide web; 3) an average better than 20nm spectral resolution resulting in more than sufficient sensitivity to composition imperfections (copper-rich and copper-poor regions were detected). The system was verified to be high vacuum compatible. Phase II results completely validated both technical and economic feasibility of the proposed concept. MicroXact’s solution is an enabling technique for in-line PV manufacturing diagnostics to increase the productivity of PV manufacturing lines and reduce the cost of solar energy, thus reducing the US dependency on foreign oil while simultaneously reducing emission of greenhouse gasses.

  20. Web100-based Network Diagnostic Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-03-20

    NDT is a client/server based network diagnostic tool developed to aid in finding network performance and configuration problems. The tool measures data transfer rates between two internet hosts (client and server). It also gathers detailed TCP statistical variable counters supplied by the Web100 modified server and uses these TCP variables to compute the theoretical performance rate between the two internet hosts. It then compares these analytical results with the measured results to determine if performancemore » or configuration problems exist and translates these results into plain text messages to aid users and network operators in resolving reported problems.« less

  1. Spectroscopic diagnostics for bacteria in biologic sample

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    El-Sayed, Mostafa A.; El-Sayed, Ivan H.

    2002-01-01

    A method to analyze and diagnose specific bacteria in a biologic sample using spectroscopy is disclosed. The method includes obtaining the spectra of a biologic sample of a non-infected patient for use as a reference, subtracting the reference from the spectra of an infected sample, and comparing the fingerprint regions of the resulting differential spectrum with reference spectra of bacteria in saline. Using this diagnostic technique, specific bacteria can be identified sooner and without culturing, bacteria-specific antibiotics can be prescribed sooner, resulting in decreased likelihood of antibiotic resistance and an overall reduction of medical costs.

  2. Modular initiator with integrated optical diagnostic

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alam, M. Kathleen; Schmitt, Randal L.; Welle, Eric J.; Madden, Sean P.

    2011-05-17

    A slapper detonator which integrally incorporates an optical wavequide structure for determining whether there has been degradation of the explosive in the explosive device that is to be initiated by the detonator. Embodiments of this invention take advantage of the barrel-like character of a typical slapper detonator design. The barrel assembly, being in direct contact with the energetic material, incorporates an optical diagnostic device into the barrel assembly whereby one can monitor the state of the explosive material. Such monitoring can be beneficial because the chemical degradation of the explosive plays an important in achieving proper functioning of a detonator/initiator device.

  3. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  4. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  5. FAQS Job Task Analyses Form | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Form FAQS Job Task Analyses Form Step 1, Identify and evaluate tasks; Step 2, Identify and evaluate competencies; and Step 3, Evaluate linkage between tasks and competencies. FAQS Job Task Analyses Form (18.57 KB) More Documents & Publications FAQS Job Task Analyses - Emergency Management FAQS Job Task Analyses - Environmental Compliance FAQS Job Task Analyses - Chemical Processing

  6. Stable isotopic analyses in paleoclimatic reconstruction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigand, P.E.

    1995-09-01

    Most traditional paleoclimatic proxy data have inherent time lags between climatic input and system response that constrain their use in accurate reconstruction of paleoclimate chronology, scaling of its variability, and the elucidation of the processes that determine its impact on the biotic and abiotic environment. With the exception of dendroclimatology, and studies of short-lived organisms and pollen recovered from annually varved lacustrine sediments, significant periods of time ranging from years, to centuries, to millennia may intervene between climate change and its first manifestation in paleoclimatic proxy data records. Reconstruction of past climate through changes in plant community composition derived from pollen sequences and plant remains from ancient woodrat middens, wet environments and dry caves all suffer from these lags. However, stable isotopic analyses can provide more immediate indication of biotic response to climate change. Evidence of past physiological response of organisms to changes in effective precipitation as climate varies can be provided by analyses of the stable isotopic content of plant macrofossils from various contexts. These analyses consider variation in the stable isotopic (hydrogen, oxygen and carbon) content of plant tissues as it reflects (1) past global or local temperature through changes in meteoric (rainfall) water chemistry in the case of the first two isotopes, and (2) plant stress through changes in plant respiration/transpiration processes under differing water availability, and varying atmospheric CO, composition (which itself may actually be a net result of biotic response to climate change). Studies currently being conducted in the Intermountain West indicate both long- and short-term responses that when calibrated with modem analogue studies have the potential of revealing not only the timing of climate events, but their direction, magnitude and rapidity.

  7. NSTX Diagnostics for Fusion Plasma Science Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. Kaita; D. Johnson; L. Roquemore; M. Bitter; F. Levinton; F. Paoletti; D. Stutman; and the NSTX Team

    2001-07-05

    This paper will discuss how plasma science issues are addressed by the diagnostics for the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), the newest large-scale machine in the magnetic confinement fusion (MCF) program. The development of new schemes for plasma confinement involves the interplay of experimental results and theoretical interpretations. A fundamental requirement, for example, is a determination of the equilibria for these configurations. For MCF, this is well established in the solutions of the Grad-Shafranov equation. While it is simple to state its basis in the balance between the kinetic and magnetic pressures, what they are as functions of space and time are often not easy to obtain. Quantities like the plasma pressure and current density are not directly measurable. They are derived from data that are themselves complex products of more basic parameters. The same difficulties apply to the understanding of plasma instabilities. Not only are the needs for spatial and temporal resolution more stringent, but the wave parameters which characterize the instabilities are difficult to resolve. We will show how solutions to the problems of diagnostic design on NSTX, and the physics insight the data analysis provides, benefits both NSTX and the broader scientific community.

  8. Diagnostics Beamline for the SRF Gun Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    T. Kamps; V. Durr; K. Goldammer; D. Kramer; P. Kuske; J. Kuszynski; D. Lipka; F. Marhauser; T. Quast; D. Richter; U. Lehnert; P. Michel; J. Teichert; P. Evtushenko; I. Will

    2005-08-22

    A superconducting radio-frequency photo electron injector (SRF gun) is currently under construction by a collaboration of BESSY, DESY, FZR and MBI. The project aims at the design and setup of a CW SRF gun including a diagnostics beamline for the ELBE FEL and to address R&D issues on low emittance injectors for future light sources such as the BESSY FEL. Of critical importance for the injector performance is the control of the electron beam parameters. For this reason a compact diagnostics beamline is under development serving a multitude of operation settings ranging from low-charge (77pC), low-emittance (1 mm mrad) mode to high-charge (2.5nC) operation of the gun. For these operation modes beam dynamics simulations are resulting in boundary conditions for the beam instrumentation. Proven and mature technology is projected wherever possible, for example for current and beam position monitoring. The layout of the beam profile and emittance measurement systems is described. For the bunch length, which varies between 5 ps and 50 ps, two schemes using electro-optical sampling and Cherenkov radiation are detailed. The beam energy and energy spread is measured with a 180-degree spectrometer.

  9. Diagnostic system for exhaust gas recirculation device

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsurusaki, S.

    1988-12-27

    A diagnostic system of an exhaust gas recirculation device is described having an exhaust gas recirculation control valve which is arranged in an exhaust gas recirculation passage interconnecting an exhaust passage to an intake passage of an internal combustion engine, the diagnostic system comprising: determining whether the engine is operating in a state at which the recirculation of exhaust gas is to be carried out; detecting a temperature in the exhaust gas recirculation passage downstream of the exhaust gas recirculation control valve; having a count value which is variable between a predetermined first value and a predetermined second value, the count value being changed from the first value toward the second value when the engine is operating in a state where the recirculation of exhaust is to be carried out; means for storing a first temperature detected by the detecting means when the count value is equal to the first value; and second determining means for obtaining a difference between the first temperature and second temperature detected by the detecting means when the count value becomes equal to the second value, to thereby determine that a malfunction has occurred in the exhaust gas recirculation device when the difference is lower than a predetermined value.

  10. Building Diagnostic Market Deployment - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Katipamula, S.; Gayeski, N.

    2012-04-30

    Operational faults are pervasive across the commercial buildings sector, wasting energy and increasing energy costs by up to about 30% (Mills 2009, Liu et al. 2003, Claridge et al. 2000, Katipamula and Brambley 2008, and Brambley and Katipamula 2009). Automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools provide capabilities essential for detecting and correcting these problems and eliminating the associated energy waste and costs. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Building Technology Program (BTP) has previously invested in developing and testing of such diagnostic tools for whole-building (and major system) energy use, air handlers, chillers, cooling towers, chilled-water distribution systems, and boilers. These diagnostic processes can be used to make the commercial buildings more energy efficient. The work described in this report was done as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and KGS Building LLC (KGS). PNNL and KGS both believe that the widespread adoption of AFDD tools will result in significant reduction to energy and peak energy consumption. The report provides an introduction and summary of the various tasks performed under the CRADA. The CRADA project had three major focus areas: (1) Technical Assistance for Whole Building Energy Diagnostician (WBE) Commercialization, (2) Market Transfer of the Outdoor Air/Economizer Diagnostician (OAE), and (3) Development and Deployment of Automated Diagnostics to Improve Large Commercial Building Operations. PNNL has previously developed two diagnostic tools: (1) whole building energy (WBE) diagnostician and (2) outdoor air/economizer (OAE) diagnostician. WBE diagnostician is currently licensed non-exclusively to one company. As part of this CRADA, PNNL developed implementation documentation and provided technical support to KGS to implement the tool into their software suite, Clockworks. PNNL also

  11. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  12. Waste Stream Analyses for Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    N. R. Soelberg

    2010-08-01

    A high-level study was performed in Fiscal Year 2009 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) to provide information for a range of nuclear fuel cycle options (Wigeland 2009). At that time, some fuel cycle options could not be adequately evaluated since they were not well defined and lacked sufficient information. As a result, five families of these fuel cycle options are being studied during Fiscal Year 2010 by the Systems Analysis Campaign for the DOE NE Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program. The quality and completeness of data available to date for the fuel cycle options is insufficient to perform quantitative radioactive waste analyses using recommended metrics. This study has been limited thus far to qualitative analyses of waste streams from the candidate fuel cycle options, because quantitative data for wastes from the front end, fuel fabrication, reactor core structure, and used fuel for these options is generally not yet available.

  13. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  14. Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ORION for...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ORION for US Fuel Cycle Options Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Fuel Cycle Assessment: Evaluation and Analyses using ...

  15. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Safeguards and Security General Technical...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and Security General Technical Base FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a...

  16. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Fire Protection Engineering | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fire Protection Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses - Fire Protection Engineering FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job ...

  17. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  18. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  19. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  1. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  2. Godiva and Juliet Diagnostics CED-1 (IER-176)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scorby, J C

    2011-12-21

    A suite of diagnostics are being proposed for use in the Juliet experiment (IER-128). In order to calibrate and test the diagnostics prior to use, the LLNL calibration facility and Godiva pulsed reactor will be used to provide intense sources of neutrons and gammas. Due to the similarities of the Godiva and Juliet radiation fields, the diagnostics being developed and tested for Juliet can also play an on-going role in diagnostics for Godiva as well as, perhaps, other critical assembly experiments. Similar work is also being conducted for IER-147 for the purpose of characterizing the Godiva radiation field in support of an upcoming international nuclear accident dosimetry exercise. Diagnostics developed and fielded under IER-147 can provide valuable data with respect to the neutron and gamma energy spectrums in the vicinity of Godiva which is relevant to the calibration of Juliet diagnostics.

  3. Parametric Adaptive Model Based Diagnostics | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Parametric Adaptive Model Based Diagnostics Parametric Adaptive Model Based Diagnostics A model-based adaptive, robust technology is presented for on-board diagnostics of failure of diesel engine emission control devices and ethanol estimation of flex-fuel vehicles. p-06_franchek.pdf (256.08 KB) More Documents & Publications Model-Based Transient Calibration Optimization for Next Generation Diesel Engines Evaluation of 2010 Urea-SCR Technology for Hybrid Vehicles using PSAT System

  4. 2010-12-1-DICE-Diagnostic-Service-Description

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Editor: Joe Metzger Status: DRAFT (v1.0) Date: 2010-12-1 1 General Service Description for DICE Network Diagnostic Services The DICE collaboration network diagnostic service will simplify the process of debugging, isolating, and correcting multi-domain network performance problems. The diagnostic service will allow users to measure network characteristics across multi-domain network paths. The service is designed to support network engineers in situations where a customer is experiencing

  5. TRACE ELEMENT ANALYSES OF URANIUM MATERIALS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beals, D; Charles Shick, C

    2008-06-09

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has developed an analytical method to measure many trace elements in a variety of uranium materials at the high part-per-billion (ppb) to low part-per-million (ppm) levels using matrix removal and analysis by quadrapole ICP-MS. Over 35 elements were measured in uranium oxides, acetate, ore and metal. Replicate analyses of samples did provide precise results however none of the materials was certified for trace element content thus no measure of the accuracy could be made. The DOE New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) does provide a Certified Reference Material (CRM) that has provisional values for a series of trace elements. The NBL CRM were purchased and analyzed to determine the accuracy of the method for the analysis of trace elements in uranium oxide. These results are presented and discussed in the following paper.

  6. Diagnostic Studies to Improve Abuse Tolerance and the Synthesis...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Synthesis of New Electrolyte Materials Diagnostic Studies to Improve Abuse Tolerance and the Synthesis of New Electrolyte Materials 2009 DOE Hydrogen Program and Vehicle ...

  7. LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    LANL spinoff receives NIH grant LANL spinoff receives NIH grant for respiratory disease diagnostic device Mesa Tech has been awarded a grant to develop an inexpensive, ...

  8. COLLOQUIUM: ITER and its Diagnostics - Rising to the Challenge...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    MBG Auditorium COLLOQUIUM: ITER and its Diagnostics - Rising to the Challenge Dr. Mike Walsh ITER The ITER project is now well underway with many teams completing various aspects ...

  9. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) is developed as a temperature diagnostic. A transient absorption spectroscopy setup has been developed to probe shock - induced changes during ...

  10. Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and Environmental Monitoring. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Development of Multifunctional Electrode Arrays for Medical Diagnostics and Environmental Monitoring. ...

  11. Target diagnostic system for the national ignition facility (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leeper, R.J.; Chandler, G.A.; Cooper, G.W.; Derzon, M.S.; Fehl, D.L.; Hebron, D.E.; Moats, A.R.; Noack, D.D.; Porter, J.L.; Ruggles, L.E.; Ruiz, C.L.; Torres, J.A.; Cable, M.D.; Bell, P.M.; Clower, C.A.; Hammel, B.A.; Kalantar, D.H.; Karpenko, V.P.; Kauffman, R.L.; Kilkenny, J.D.; Lee, F.D.; Lerche, R.A.; MacGowan, B.J.; Moran, M.J.; Nelson, M.B.; Olson, W.; Orzechowski, T.J.; Phillips, T.W.; Ress, D.; Tietbohl, G.L.; Trebes, J.E.; Bartlett, R.J.; Berggren, R.; Caldwell, S.E.; Chrien, R.E.; Failor, B.H.; Fernandez, J.C.; Hauer, A.; Idzorek, G.; Hockaday, R.G.; Murphy, T.J.; Oertel, J.; Watt, R.; Wilke, M.; Bradley, D.K.; Knauer, J.; Petrasso, R.D.; Li, C.K.

    1997-01-01

    A review of recent progress on the design of a diagnostic system proposed for ignition target experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) will be presented. This diagnostic package contains an extensive suite of optical, x ray, gamma ray, and neutron diagnostics that enable measurements of the performance of both direct and indirect driven NIF targets. The philosophy used in designing all of the diagnostics in the set has emphasized redundant and independent measurement of fundamental physical quantities relevant to the operation of the NIF target. A unique feature of these diagnostics is that they are being designed to be capable of operating in the high radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and debris backgrounds expected on the NIF facility. The diagnostic system proposed can be categorized into three broad areas: laser characterization, hohlraum characterization, and capsule performance diagnostics. The operating principles of a representative instrument from each class of diagnostic employed in this package will be summarized and illustrated with data obtained in recent prototype diagnostic tests. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  12. Hydrogen transport diagnostics by atomic and molecular emission...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Hydrogen transport diagnostics by atomic and molecular emission line profiles simultaneously measured for large helical device Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Hydrogen ...

  13. Application of dynamic displacement current for diagnostics of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    current was used for diagnostics of ionization processes between the ionization wave front and a plane anode. It is demonstrated that during the generation of a...

  14. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    for Physics-Based Model Development. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms: Tools for Physics-Based ...

  15. Real Time Diagnostics for Algae-final-sm

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Real-time Monitoring And Diagnostics Detecting pathogens and predators to quickly recover ... Real-time Monitoring With Online Algal Reflectance Monitor System Researchers have ...

  16. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Studies of Shock Initiation in...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Studies of Shock Initiation in Energetic Materials. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Studies of Shock Initiation in Energetic Materials. ...

  17. Diagnostic Studies on Lithium Battery Cells and Cell Components...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Mitigating Performance Degradation of High-Energy Lithium-Ion Cells Diagnostic studies on Li-battery cells and cell components Cell Fabrication Facility Team Production and ...

  18. Shielded flashback-resistant diffusion flame burner for combustion diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krupa, R.J.; Zizak, G.; Winefordner, J.D.

    1986-10-15

    A burner design is presented which is of general utility for combustion diagnostics of high temperature, high burning velocity flames. (AIP)

  19. PSU CBEI: VOLTTRON Compatible and Cost-Effective Fault Diagnostic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for AHU-VAV and AHU-CAV Systems 2014 Building Technologies Office Peer Review Dr. ... Project Goal: Develop and demonstrate a library of diagnostics decision support tools ...

  20. Ultrafast Laser Diagnostics for Energetic-Material Ignition Mechanisms...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    presented here. SRS a nd transient absorption diagnostics are demonstrated on static thin - film samples, and paths forward to dynamic experiments are presented. Sandia...

  1. Laser Integration Line target diagnostics first results (invited...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    and high resolution spectrometers have been fabricated in the frame of a unique industrial contract. Optical pointers are used to align the diagnostics to the target. The...

  2. Dental diagnostics using optical coherence techniques

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nathel, H.; Colston, B.; Armitage, G.

    1994-11-15

    Optical radiation can be used for diagnostic purposes in oral medicine. However, due to the turbid, amorphous, and inhomogeneous nature of dental tissue conventional techniques used to transilluminate materials are not well suited to dental tissues. Optical coherence techniques either in the time- of frequency-domain offer the capabilities of discriminating scattered from unscattered light, thus allowing for imaging through turbid tissue. Currently, using optical time-domain reflectometry we are able to discriminate specular from diffuse reflections occurring at tissue boundaries. We have determined the specular reflectivity of enamel and dentin to be approximately 6.6 x 10{sup -5} and 1.3 x 10{sup -6}, respectively. Implications to periodontal imaging will be discussed.

  3. RHIC electron lens test bench diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gassner, D.; Beebe, E.; Fischer, W.; Gu, X.; Hamdi, K.; Hock, J.; Liu, C.; Miller, T.; Pikin, A.; Thieberger, P.

    2011-05-16

    An Electron Lens (E-Lens) system will be installed in RHIC to increase luminosity by counteracting the head-on beam-beam interaction. The proton beam collisions at the RHIC experimental locations will introduce a tune spread due to a difference of tune shifts between small and large amplitude particles. A low energy electron beam will be used to improve luminosity and lifetime of the colliding beams by reducing the betatron tune shift and spread. In preparation for the Electron Lens installation next year, a test bench facility will be used to gain experience with many sub-systems. This paper will discuss the diagnostics related to measuring the electron beam parameters.

  4. Diagnostics Challenges for FACET-II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clarke, Christine

    2015-10-07

    FACET-II is a prospective user facility at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The facility will focus on high-energy, high-brightness beams and their interaction with plasma and lasers. The accelerator is designed for high-energy-density electron beams with peak currents of approximately 50 kA (potentially 100 kA) that are focused down to below 10x10 micron transverse spot size at an energy of 10 GeV. Subsequent phases of the facility will provide positron beams above 10 kA peak current to the experiment station. Experiments will require well characterised beams; however, the high peak current of the electron beam can lead to material failure in wirescanners, optical transition radiation screens and other instruments critical for measurement or delivery. The radiation environment and space constraints also put additional pressure on diagnostic design.

  5. 3D Diagnostic Of Complex Plasma

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, Edward; Samsonov, Dmitry

    2011-11-29

    This paper reports the development of a three-dimensional(3D) dust particle position diagnostic for complex plasmas. A beam produce by Light Emitting Diodes(LEDs) is formed into horizontal sheet, for the illumination of the particles. The light sheet has a vertical colour gradient across its width, from two opposing colours. The light scattered from the particles is imaged with the camera from above. The horizontal coordinates are measured from the positions on the image. The third coordinate is determined from the colour which represents a position on the gradient of the light sheet. The use of LEDs as a light source reduces a variation in Mie scattered intensity from the particles due to the particle size distribution. The variation would induce a large vertical positional error.

  6. Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting ...

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  8. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  9. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  10. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  11. Seismic Soil-Structure Interaction Analyses of a Deeply Embedded Model Reactor – SASSI Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nie J.; Braverman J.; Costantino, M.

    2013-10-31

    This report summarizes the SASSI analyses of a deeply embedded reactor model performed by BNL and CJC and Associates, as part of the seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) simulation capability project for the NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) Program of the Department of Energy. The SASSI analyses included three cases: 0.2 g, 0.5 g, and 0.9g, all of which refer to nominal peak accelerations at the top of the bedrock. The analyses utilized the modified subtraction method (MSM) for performing the seismic SSI evaluations. Each case consisted of two analyses: input motion in one horizontal direction (X) and input motion in the vertical direction (Z), both of which utilized the same in-column input motion. Besides providing SASSI results for use in comparison with the time domain SSI results obtained using the DIABLO computer code, this study also leads to the recognition that the frequency-domain method should be modernized so that it can better serve its mission-critical role for analysis and design of nuclear power plants.

  12. Interim Basis for PCB Sampling and Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BANNING, D.L.

    2001-03-20

    This document was developed as an interim basis for sampling and analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and will be used until a formal data quality objective (DQO) document is prepared and approved. On August 31, 2000, the Framework Agreement for Management of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Hanford Tank Waste was signed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) (Ecology et al. 2000). This agreement outlines the management of double shell tank (DST) waste as Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) PCB remediation waste based on a risk-based disposal approval option per Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations 761.61 (c). The agreement calls for ''Quantification of PCBs in DSTs, single shell tanks (SSTs), and incoming waste to ensure that the vitrification plant and other ancillary facilities PCB waste acceptance limits and the requirements of the anticipated risk-based disposal approval are met.'' Waste samples will be analyzed for PCBs to satisfy this requirement. This document describes the DQO process undertaken to assure appropriate data will be collected to support management of PCBs and is presented in a DQO format. The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA QA/G4, Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process (EPA 1994) and the Data Quality Objectives for Sampling and Analyses, HNF-IP-0842, Rev. 1A, Vol. IV, Section 4.16 (Banning 1999).

  13. Interim Basis for PCB Sampling and Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BANNING, D.L.

    2001-01-18

    This document was developed as an interim basis for sampling and analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and will be used until a formal data quality objective (DQO) document is prepared and approved. On August 31, 2000, the Framework Agreement for Management of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Hanford Tank Waste was signed by the US. Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) (Ecology et al. 2000). This agreement outlines the management of double shell tank (DST) waste as Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) PCB remediation waste based on a risk-based disposal approval option per Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations 761.61 (c). The agreement calls for ''Quantification of PCBs in DSTs, single shell tanks (SSTs), and incoming waste to ensure that the vitrification plant and other ancillary facilities PCB waste acceptance limits and the requirements of the anticipated risk-based disposal approval are met.'' Waste samples will be analyzed for PCBs to satisfy this requirement. This document describes the DQO process undertaken to assure appropriate data will be collected to support management of PCBs and is presented in a DQO format. The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA QAlG4, Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process (EPA 1994) and the Data Quality Objectives for Sampling and Analyses, HNF-IP-0842, Rev. 1 A, Vol. IV, Section 4.16 (Banning 1999).

  14. PRECLOSURE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Tsai

    2005-01-12

    Radiological consequence analyses are performed for potential releases from normal operations in surface and subsurface facilities and from Category 1 and Category 2 event sequences during the preclosure period. Surface releases from normal repository operations are primarily from radionuclides released from opening a transportation cask during dry transfer operations of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in Dry Transfer Facility 1 (DTF 1), Dry Transfer Facility 2 (DTF 2), the Canister Handling facility (CHF), or the Fuel Handling Facility (FHF). Subsurface releases from normal repository operations are from resuspension of waste package surface contamination and neutron activation of ventilated air and silica dust from host rock in the emplacement drifts. The purpose of this calculation is to demonstrate that the preclosure performance objectives, specified in 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b), have been met for the proposed design and operations in the geologic repository operations area. Preclosure performance objectives are discussed in Section 6.2.3 and are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.

  15. Activation analyses for different fusion structural alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Attaya, H.; Smith, D.

    1991-12-31

    The leading candidate structural materials, viz., the vanadium alloys, the nickel or the manganese stabilized austenitic steels, and the ferritic steels, are analysed in terms of their induced activation in the TPSS fusion power reactor. The TPSS reactor has 1950 MW fusion power and inboard and outboard average neutron wall loading of 3.75 and 5.35 MW/m{sup 2} respectively. The results shows that, after one year of continuous operation, the vanadium alloys have the least radioactivity at reactor shutdown. The maximum difference between the induced radioactivity in the vanadium alloys and in the other iron-based alloys occurs at about 10 years after reactor shutdown. At this time, the total reactor radioactivity, using the vanadium alloys, is about two orders of magnitude less than the total reactor radioactivity utilizing any other alloy. The difference is even larger in the first wall, the FW-vanadium activation is 3 orders of magnitude less than other alloys` FW activation. 2 refs., 7 figs.

  16. Activation analyses for different fusion structural alloys

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Attaya, H.; Smith, D.

    1991-01-01

    The leading candidate structural materials, viz., the vanadium alloys, the nickel or the manganese stabilized austenitic steels, and the ferritic steels, are analysed in terms of their induced activation in the TPSS fusion power reactor. The TPSS reactor has 1950 MW fusion power and inboard and outboard average neutron wall loading of 3.75 and 5.35 MW/m{sup 2} respectively. The results shows that, after one year of continuous operation, the vanadium alloys have the least radioactivity at reactor shutdown. The maximum difference between the induced radioactivity in the vanadium alloys and in the other iron-based alloys occurs at about 10 years after reactor shutdown. At this time, the total reactor radioactivity, using the vanadium alloys, is about two orders of magnitude less than the total reactor radioactivity utilizing any other alloy. The difference is even larger in the first wall, the FW-vanadium activation is 3 orders of magnitude less than other alloys' FW activation. 2 refs., 7 figs.

  17. Ultrasensitive microanalytical diagnostic methods for rickettsial pathogens

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hatch, A. V.

    2012-03-01

    A strategic CRADA was established between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at Galveston to address pressing needs for US protection against biological weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and emerging infectious diseases. The combination of unique expertise and facilities at UTMB and SNL enabled interdisciplinary research efforts in the development of rapid and accurate diagnostic methods for early detection of trace priority pathogen levels. Outstanding postdoctoral students were also trained at both institutions to help enable the next generation of scientists to tackle the challenging interdisciplinary problems in the area of biodefense and emerging infectious diseases. Novel approaches to diagnostics were developed and the both the speed of assays as well as the detection sensitivity were improved by over an order of magnitude compared to traditional methods. This is a significant step toward more timely and specific detection of dangerous infections. We developed in situ polymerized porous polymer monoliths that can be used as (1) size exclusion elements for capture and processing of rickettsial infected cells from a sample, (2) photopatternable framework for grafting high densities of functionalized antibodies/fluorescent particles using novel monolith chemistry. Grafting affinity reagents specific to rickettsial particles enables rapid, ultra-sensitive assays by overcoming transport limitations of traditional planar assay approaches. We have selectively trapped particles and bacteria at the cell trap and have also detected picomolar mouse IL-6 captured with only 20 minutes total incubation times using the densely patterned monolith framework. As predicted, the monolith exhibits >10x improvements in both capture speed and capture density compared to traditional planar approaches. The most significant advancements as part of this CRADA is the optimization of techniques allowing the detection of <10 rickettsial

  18. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  19. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  20. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  1. Genome-Facilitated Analyses of Geomicrobial Processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kenneth H. Nealson

    2012-05-02

    that makes up chitin, virtually all of the strains were in fact capable. This led to the discovery of a great many new genes involved with chitin and NAG metabolism (7). In a similar vein, a detailed study of the sugar utilization pathway revealed a major new insight into the regulation of sugar metabolism in this genus (19). Systems Biology and Comparative Genomics of the shewanellae: Several publications were put together describing the use of comparative genomics for analyses of the group Shewanella, and these were a logical culmination of our genomic-driven research (10,15,18). Eight graduate students received their Ph.D. degrees doing part of the work described here, and four postdoctoral fellows were supported. In addition, approximately 20 undergraduates took part in projects during the grant period.

  2. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  3. Development plan for an advanced drilling system with real-time diagnostics (Diagnostics-While-Drilling)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    FINGER,JOHN T.; MANSURE,ARTHUR J.; PRAIRIE,MICHAEL R.; GLOWKA,D.A.

    2000-02-01

    This proposal provides the rationale for an advanced system called Diagnostics-while-drilling (DWD) and describes its benefits, preliminary configuration, and essential characteristics. The central concept is a closed data circuit in which downhole sensors collect information and send it to the surface via a high-speed data link, where it is combined with surface measurements and processed through drilling advisory software. The driller then uses this information to adjust the drilling process, sending control signals back downhole with real-time knowledge of their effects on performance. The report presents background of related previous work, and defines a Program Plan for US Department of Energy (DOE), university, and industry cooperation.

  4. Range of Neutronic Parameters for Repository Criticality Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    W.J. Anderson

    1999-09-28

    The ''Range of Neutronic Parameters for Repository Criticality Analyses'' technical report contains a summary of the benchmark criticality analyses (including the laboratory critical experiment [LCEs] and the commercial reactor criticals [CRCs]) used to support the validation of the criticality evaluation methods. This report also documents the development of the Critical Limits (CLs) for the repository criticality analyses.

  5. ITER Generic Diagnostic Upper Port Plug Nuclear Heating and Personnel Dose Rate Assesment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell E. Feder and Mahmoud Z. Youssef

    2009-01-28

    Neutronics analysis to find nuclear heating rates and personnel dose rates were conducted in support of the integration of diagnostics in to the ITER Upper Port Plugs. Simplified shielding models of the Visible-Infrared diagnostic and of a large aperture diagnostic were incorporated in to the ITER global CAD model. Results for these systems are representative of typical designs with maximum shielding and a small aperture (Vis-IR) and minimal shielding with a large aperture. The neutronics discrete-ordinates code ATTILA® and SEVERIAN® (the ATTILA parallel processing version) was used. Material properties and the 500 MW D-T volume source were taken from the ITER “Brand Model” MCNP benchmark model. A biased quadrature set equivelant to Sn=32 and a scattering degree of Pn=3 were used along with a 46-neutron and 21-gamma FENDL energy subgrouping. Total nuclear heating (neutron plug gamma heating) in the upper port plugs ranged between 380 and 350 kW for the Vis-IR and Large Aperture cases. The Large Aperture model exhibited lower total heating but much higher peak volumetric heating on the upper port plug structure. Personnel dose rates are calculated in a three step process involving a neutron-only transport calculation, the generation of activation volume sources at pre-defined time steps and finally gamma transport analyses are run for selected time steps. ANSI-ANS 6.1.1 1977 Flux-to-Dose conversion factors were used. Dose rates were evaluated for 1 full year of 500 MW DT operation which is comprised of 3000 1800-second pulses. After one year the machine is shut down for maintenance and personnel are permitted to access the diagnostic interspace after 2-weeks if dose rates are below 100 ?Sv/hr. Dose rates in the Visible-IR diagnostic model after one day of shutdown were 130 ?Sv/hr but fell below the limit to 90 ?Sv/hr 2-weeks later. The Large Aperture style shielding model exhibited higher and more persistent dose rates. After 1-day the dose rate was 230 ?Sv/hr but

  6. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  8. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  10. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  11. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  12. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  13. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  14. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  15. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  16. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  17. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  18. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvén waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  19. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  20. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  1. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  2. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  3. High-Energy Laser Diagnostics (HELD) for the Measurement of Diesel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Laser Diagnostics (HELD) for the Measurement of Diesel Particulate Matter High-Energy Laser Diagnostics (HELD) for the Measurement of Diesel Particulate Matter 2004 Diesel ...

  4. Hydroxyalkyl phosphine compounds for use as diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceuticals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, Kattesh V.; Singh, Prahlad R.; Reddy, V. Sreenivasa; Katti, Kavita K.; Volkert, Wynn A.; Ketring, Alan R.

    1999-01-01

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises a functionalized hydroxyalkyl phosphine ligand and a metal combined with the ligand.

  5. A fast spectroscopic diagnostic for the measurement of plasma...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    diagnostic for the measurement of plasma impurity ion dynamics D. J. Den Hat-tog ... from two different chordal views of the plasma can be made simultaneously via two ...

  6. Fusion diagnostic developed at PPPL sheds light on plasma behavior...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Fusion diagnostic developed at PPPL sheds light on plasma behavior at EAST By Kitta ... (PPPL) has enabled a research team at a fusion energy experiment in China to observe--in ...

  7. Mach-Zehnder Fiber-Optic Links for ICF Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, E. K., Hermann, H. W.

    2012-11-01

    This article describes the operation and evolution of Mach-Zehnder links for single-point detectors in inertial confinement fusion experimental facilities, based on the Gamma Reaction History (GRH) diagnostic at the National Ignition Facility.

  8. Plasma density diagnostic for capillary-discharge based plasma...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Plasma density diagnostic for capillary-discharge based plasma channels Authors: Daniels, J. 1 Search SciTech Connect for author "Daniels, J." Search SciTech Connect for...

  9. Control and Diagnostics for Rooftop Units- 2014 BTO Peer Review

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presenter: Jim Braun, Purdue University (The Pennsylvania State University Consortium for Building Energy Innovation) This project aims to develop and validate cost-effective methods for rooftop air conditioning unit (RTU) coordination and diagnostics in small commercial buildings.

  10. Compatible and Cost-Effective Fault Diagnostic Solutions for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Air Volume Systems - 2014 BTO Peer Review Presenter: Jin Wen, Drexel University The goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a library of diagnostics decision-support ...

  11. Hydroxyalkyl phosphine compounds for use as diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceuticals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, K.V.; Singh, P.R.; Reddy, V.S.; Katti, K.K.; Volkert, W.A.; Ketring, A.R.

    1999-03-02

    This research discloses a compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises a functionalized hydroxyalkyl phosphine ligand and a metal combined with the ligand. 16 figs.

  12. DIAGNOSTICS FOR ION BEAM DRIVEN HIGH ENERGY DENSITY PHYSICS EXPERIMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bieniosek, F.M.; Henestroza, E.; Lidia, S.; Ni, P.A.

    2010-01-04

    Intense beams of heavy ions are capable of heating volumetric samples of matter to high energy density. Experiments are performed on the resulting warm dense matter (WDM) at the NDCX-I ion beam accelerator. The 0.3 MeV, 30-mA K{sup +} beam from NDCX-I heats foil targets by combined longitudinal and transverse neutralized drift compression of the ion beam. Both the compressed and uncompressed parts of the NDCX-I beam heat targets. The exotic state of matter (WDM) in these experiments requires specialized diagnostic techniques. We have developed a target chamber and fielded target diagnostics including a fast multi-channel optical pyrometer, optical streak camera, laser Doppler-shift interferometer (VISAR), beam transmission diagnostics, and high-speed gated cameras. We also present plans and opportunities for diagnostic development and a new target chamber for NDCX-II.

  13. Engineer Russ Feder leads development of diagnostic tools for...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    shifts to part-time work By John Greenwald March 16, 2015 ... diagnostic system behind them. (Photo by Elle StarkmanPPPL ... to be part of our strong team," Feder said. "I also ...

  14. Advanced Diagnostics and Control for Furnaces, Fired Heaters and Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2007-06-01

    This factsheet describes a research project whose objective is to develop and implement technologies that address advanced combustion diagnostics and rapid Btu measurements of fuels. These are the fundamental weaknesses associated with the combustion processes of a furnace.

  15. Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) Input Coal Analyses and Off-Gass Filter (OGF) Content Analyses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jantzen, Carol M.; Missimer, David M.; Guenther, Chris P.; Shekhawat, Dushyant; VanEssendelft, Dirk T.; Means, Nicholas C.

    2015-04-23

    in process piping and materials, in excessive off-gas absorbent loading, and in undesired process emissions. The ash content of the coal is important as the ash adds to the DMR and other vessel products which affect the final waste product mass and composition. The amount and composition of the ash also affects the reaction kinetics. Thus ash content and composition contributes to the mass balance. In addition, sodium, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and maybe silica and alumina in the ash may contribute to wall-scale formation. Sodium, potassium, and alumina in the ash will be overwhelmed by the sodium, potassium, and alumina from the feed but the impact from the other ash components needs to be quantified. A maximum coal particle size is specified so the feed system does not plug and a minimum particle size is specified to prevent excess elutriation from the DMR to the Process Gas Filter (PGF). A vendor specification was used to procure the calcined coal for IWTU processing. While the vendor supplied a composite analysis for the 22 tons of coal (Appendix A), this study compares independent analyses of the coal performed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Three supersacks a were sampled at three different heights within the sack in order to determine within bag variability and between bag variability of the coal. These analyses were also compared to the vendor’s composite analyses and to the coal specification. These analyses were also compared to historic data on Bestac coal analyses that had been performed at Hazen Research Inc. (HRI) between 2004-2011.

  16. Laser diagnostic for high current H{sup {minus}} beams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shafer, R.E.

    1998-01-01

    Laser photodetachment can be used on high current, high energy H{sup {minus}} beams to carry out a wide variety of beam diagnostic measurements parasitically during normal operation, without having to operate the facility at either reduced current or duty cycle. Suitable Q-switched laser systems are small, inexpensive, and can be mounted on or near the beamline. Most of the proposed laser-based diagnostics techniques have already been demonstrated.

  17. Spectral diagnostics of laser wakefield in capillary tubes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Andreev, N.E.; Chegotov, M.V.; Cros, B.; Mora, P.; Vieux, G.

    2006-05-15

    The modification of the spectrum of a probe pulse traveling in a linear plasma wave created in the wake of a pump pulse guided inside a capillary tube is analyzed for the cases of narrow or broad chirped probe spectra. It is shown that in both cases the measurement of the spectrum can be used as a diagnostic for the amplitude of the plasma wave. The results of full-scale numerical modeling confirm the developed analytical theory of wake-field diagnostics.

  18. Optical Diagnostics and Modeling Tools Applied to Diesel HCCI | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Optical Diagnostics and Modeling Tools Applied to Diesel HCCI Optical Diagnostics and Modeling Tools Applied to Diesel HCCI 2002 DEER Conference Presentation: Caterpillar Engine Research 2002_deer_choi.pdf (954.08 KB) More Documents & Publications Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Diesel Engine Combustion and Emissions Development of Enabling Technologies for High Efficiency, Low Emissions Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) Engines 3-D Combustion Simulation

  19. 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Princeton Plasma Physics Lab May 16, 2010, 9:00am to May 20, 2010, 5:00pm Conference Wildwood, New Jersey 18th Topical Conference High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics (HTPD) The 18th Topical Conference on High-Temperature Plasma Diagnostics will be held May 16-20, 2010 in Wildwood, New Jersey. This biennial conference brings together plasma physicists from a variety of fields including magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion, space plasmas, astrophysics, and industrial

  20. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  1. Preliminary Neutronics Analysis of the ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter Diagnostic Corner Cube Retroreflectors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tresemer, K. R.

    2015-07-01

    ITER is an international project under construction in France that will demonstrate nuclear fusion at a power plant-relevant scale. The Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) Diagnostic will be used to measure the plasma electron line density along 5 laser-beam chords. This line-averaged density measurement will be input to the ITER feedback-control system. The TIP is considered the primary diagnostic for these measurements, which are needed for basic ITER machine control. Therefore, system reliability & accuracy is a critical element in TIP’s design. There are two major challenges to the reliability of the TIP system. First is the survivability and performance of in-vessel optics and second is maintaining optical alignment over long optical paths and large vessel movements. Both of these issues greatly depend on minimizing the overall distortion due to neutron & gamma heating of the Corner Cube Retroreflectors (CCRs). These are small optical mirrors embedded in five first wall locations around the vacuum vessel, corresponding to certain plasma tangency radii. During the development of the design and location of these CCRs, several iterations of neutronics analyses were performed to determine and minimize the total distortion due to nuclear heating of the CCRs. The CCR corresponding to TIP Channel 2 was chosen for analysis as a good middle-road case, being an average distance from the plasma (of the five channels) and having moderate neutron shielding from its blanket shield housing. Results show that Channel 2 meets the requirements of the TIP Diagnostic, but barely. These results suggest other CCRs might be at risk of exceeding thermal deformation due to nuclear heating.

  2. Visible bremsstrahlung tomographic diagnostic for the pulsed high density field-reversed configuration experiment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gota, H.; Andreason, S. P.; Votroubek, G. R.; Pihl, C. J.; Slough, J. T.

    2006-10-15

    A diagnostic suite for the source section of the pulsed high density field-reversed configuration (FRC) experiment has been constructed to investigate the equilibrium and stability of FRC plasmas. In particular, a visible bremsstrahlung tomographic system has been designed and implemented. Three types of tomographic analyses for FRCs are performed: a Fourier fit method (Cormack-Granetz), a maximum entropy method, and a minimum Fisher method utilizing code developed for the TCV tokamak experiment in Switzerland [Anton et al., Plasma Phys. Controled Fusion 38, 1849 (1996)]. Results from the different methods and end-on imaging from the fast-framing camera are compared showing relative agreement of FRC internal structures between all measurements.

  3. Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Redevelopment Groundwater Chemical Analyses

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    from LM Monitoring Wells | Department of Energy Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Redevelopment Groundwater Chemical Analyses from LM Monitoring Wells Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Redevelopment Groundwater Chemical Analyses from LM Monitoring Wells AS&T Ancillary Work Plan (AWP) Final Well Redevelopment Evaluation Report Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Redevelopment Groundwater Chemical Analyses from LM Monitoring Wells (3.25 MB) More Documents & Publications Analysis and Geochemical Modeling

  4. FAQS Job Task Analyses - Instrument and Controls | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Instrument and Controls FAQS Job Task Analyses - Instrument and Controls FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies. FAQS JTA - Instrument and

  5. EIA- Energy Efficiency Related Links: EIA Reports and Analyses

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Reports Energy-Efficiency Related: EIA Reports and Analyses Released Release Date: October 1999 Last Updated: August 2010 End Users: Commercial Buildings Manufacturing ...

  6. Ch. III, Interpretation of water sample analyses Waunita Hot...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of water sample analyses Waunita Hot Springs area Gunnison County, Colorado Author R. H. Carpenter Editor T. G. Zacharakis Published Colorado Geological Survey in Cooperation...

  7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT COLUMN DEGRADATION ANALYSES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flach, G.

    2014-10-28

    PORFLOW related analyses supporting a Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) column degradation were performed. Previous analyses, Flach and Taylor 2014, used a model in which the SDU columns degraded in a piecewise manner from the top and bottom simultaneously. The current analyses employs a model in which all pieces of the column degrade at the same time. Information was extracted from the analyses which may be useful in determining the distribution of Tc-99 in the various SDUs throughout time and in determining flow balances for the SDUs.

  8. Interpretation of chemical analyses of waters collected from...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    chemical analyses of waters collected from two geothermal wells at Coso, California Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Journal Article:...

  9. Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    This document corresponds to Appendix C: Analysis Integrated Summary Report of the Technical Assessment Team Report. Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot ...

  10. 11th Topical conference high-temperature plasma diagnostics. Book of abstracts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-06-01

    This report contains abstracts from the 11th topical conference on high-temperature plasma diagnostics.

  11. Use of Time-Aggregated Data in Economic Screening Analyses of Combined Heat and Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudson II, Carl Randy

    2004-09-01

    Combined heat and power (CHP) projects (also known as cogeneration projects) usually undergo a series of assessments and viability checks before any commitment is made. A screening analysis, with electrical and thermal loads characterized on an annual basis, may be performed initially to quickly determine the economic viability of the proposed project. Screening analyses using time-aggregated data do not reflect several critical cost influences, however. Seasonal and diurnal variations in electrical and thermal loads, as well as time-of-use utility pricing structures, can have a dramatic impact on the economics. A more accurate economic assessment requires additional detailed data on electrical and thermal demand (e.g., hourly load data), which may not be readily available for the specific facility under study. Recent developments in CHP evaluation tools, however, can generate the needed hourly data through the use of historical data libraries and building simulation. This article utilizes model-generated hourly load data for four potential CHP applications and compares the calculated cost savings of a CHP system when evaluated on a time-aggregated (i.e., annual) basis to the savings when evaluated on an hour-by-hour basis. It is observed that the simple, aggregated analysis forecasts much greater savings (i.e., greater economic viability) than the more detailed hourly analysis. The findings confirm that the simpler tool produces results with a much more optimistic outlook, which, if taken by itself, might lead to erroneous project decisions. The more rigorous approach, being more reflective of actual requirements and conditions, presents a more accurate economic comparison of the alternatives, which, in turn, leads to better decision risk management.

  12. Electromagnetic Analysis of ITER Diagnostic Equatorial Port Plugs During Plasma Disruptions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Y. Zhai, R. Feder, A. Brooks, M. Ulrickson, C.S. Pitcher and G.D. Loesser

    2012-08-27

    ITER diagnostic port plugs perform many functionsincluding structural support of diagnostic systems under high electromagnetic loads while allowing for diagnostic access to the plasma. The design of diagnostic equatorial port plugs (EPP) are largely driven by electromagnetic loads and associate responses of EPP structure during plasma disruptions and VDEs. This paper summarizes results of transient electromagnetic analysis using Opera 3d in support of the design activities for ITER diagnostic EPP. A complete distribution of disruption loads on the Diagnostic First Walls (DFWs), Diagnostic Shield Modules (DSMs) and the EPP structure, as well as impact on the system design integration due to electrical contact among various EPP structural components are discussed.

  13. Research at ITER towards DEMO: Specific reactor diagnostic studies to be carried out on ITER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krasilnikov, A. V.; Kaschuck, Y. A.; Vershkov, V. A.; Petrov, A. A.; Petrov, V. G.; Tugarinov, S. N.

    2014-08-21

    In ITER diagnostics will operate in the very hard radiation environment of fusion reactor. Extensive technology studies are carried out during development of the ITER diagnostics and procedures of their calibration and remote handling. Results of these studies and practical application of the developed diagnostics on ITER will provide the direct input to DEMO diagnostic development. The list of DEMO measurement requirements and diagnostics will be determined during ITER experiments on the bases of ITER plasma physics results and success of particular diagnostic application in reactor-like ITER plasma. Majority of ITER diagnostic already passed the conceptual design phase and represent the state of the art in fusion plasma diagnostic development. The number of related to DEMO results of ITER diagnostic studies such as design and prototype manufacture of: neutron and γ–ray diagnostics, neutral particle analyzers, optical spectroscopy including first mirror protection and cleaning technics, reflectometry, refractometry, tritium retention measurements etc. are discussed.

  14. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  15. FAQS Job Task Analyses- NNSA Package Certification Engineer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  16. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Electrical Systems and Safety Oversight

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  17. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Confinement Ventilation and Process Gas Treatment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  18. FAQS Job Task Analyses- DOE Aviation Safety Officer

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  19. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Senior Technical Safety Manager

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  20. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Civil/Structural Engineering

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  1. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Nuclear Explosive Safety Study

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  2. FAQS Job Task Analyses- Safeguards and Security General Technical Base

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    FAQS Job Task Analyses are performed on the Function Area Qualification Standards. The FAQS Job Task Analyses consists of: Developing a comprehensive list of tasks that define the job such as the duties and responsibilities which include determining their levels of importance and frequency. Identifying and evaluating competencies. Last step is evaluating linkage between job tasks and competencies.

  3. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  4. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  5. Fluorescence-based video profile beam diagnostics: Theory and experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandoval, D.; Gilpatrick, D.; Shinas, M.; Garcia, R.; Yuan, V.; Zander, M.

    1994-05-01

    Inelastic collisions between accelerated particles and residual gas in the accelerator vessel can cause the residual gas to fluoresce. The gas fluorescence intensity is proportional to the current density of the particle beam. This process provides the foundation for a video diagnostic system to measure the profile and position of accelerated particle beams. This, in fact, has proven to be a useful diagnostic at several installations. This paper describes the light production process resulting from beam -- residual gas interactions and gives formulas for estimating the beam radiance for various conditions. Ground Test Accelerator (GTA) radiance calculations will be used as an example. In addition, measurement experiences with the GTA video diagnostics system will be discussed.

  6. Fluorescence-based video profile beam diagnostics: Theory and experience

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandoval, D.P.; Garcia, R.C.; Gilpatrick, J.D.; Shinas, M.A.; Wright, R.; Yuan, V.; Zander, M.E. )

    1994-10-10

    Inelastic collisions between accelerated particles and residual gas in the accelerator vessel can cause the residual gas to fluoresce. The gas fluorescence intensity is proportional to the current density of the particle beam. This process provides the foundation for a video diagnostics system to measure the profile and position of accelerated particle beams. This, in fact, has proven to be a useful diagnostic at several installations. This paper describes the light production process resulting from beam-residual gas interactions and gives formulas for estimating the beam radiance for various conditions. Ground Test Accelerator (GTA) radiance calculations will be used as an example. In addition, measurement experiences with the GTA video diagnostics system will be discussed.

  7. Nuclear diagnostics for the National Ignition Facility (invited)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Thomas J.; Barnes, Cris W.; Berggren, R. R.; Bradley, P.; Caldwell, S. E.; Chrien, R. E.; Faulkner, J. R.; Gobby, P. L.; Hoffman, N.; Jimerson, J. L.

    2001-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF), currently under construction at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, will provide unprecedented opportunities for the use of nuclear diagnostics in inertial confinement fusion experiments. The completed facility will provide 2 MJ of laser energy for driving targets, compared to the approximately 40 kJ that was available on Nova and the approximately 30 kJ available on Omega. Ignited NIF targets are anticipated to produce up to 10{sup 19} DT neutrons. In addition to a basic set of nuclear diagnostics based on previous experience, these higher NIF yields are expected to allow innovative nuclear diagnostic techniques to be utilized, such as neutron imaging, recoil proton techniques, and gamma-ray-based reaction history measurements.

  8. Optomechanical design of a prompt gamma reaction history diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hermann, Hans W; Kaufman, Morris I; Malone, Robert M; Frogget, Brent C; Tunnell, Thomas W; Cox, Brian; Frayer, Daniel K; Ali, Zaheer; Stoeffl, Wolfgang

    2009-01-01

    The National Ignition Facility and the Omega Laser Facility both have a need for measuring prompt gamma radiation as part of a nuclear diagnostic program. A new gamma-detection diagnostic using off-axis-parabolic mirrors has been built. Some new techniques were used in the design, construction, and tolerancing of this gamma ray diagnostic. Because of the wavelength requirement (250-700 nm), the optical element surface finishes were a key design consideration. The optical enclosure had to satisfy pressure safety concerns and shielding against electromagnetic interference induced by gammas and neutrons. Structural finite element analysis was needed to meet rigorous optical and safety requirements. The optomechanical design is presented. Alignment issues are also discussed.

  9. Passive Spectroscopic Diagnostics for Magnetically-confined Fusion Plasmas

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stratton, B. C.; Biter, M.; Hill, K. W.; Hillis, D. L.; Hogan, J. T.

    2007-07-18

    Spectroscopy of radiation emitted by impurities and hydrogen isotopes plays an important role in the study of magnetically-confined fusion plasmas, both in determining the effects of impurities on plasma behavior and in measurements of plasma parameters such as electron and ion temperatures and densities, particle transport, and particle influx rates. This paper reviews spectroscopic diagnostics of plasma radiation that are excited by collisional processes in the plasma, which are termed 'passive' spectroscopic diagnostics to distinguish them from 'active' spectroscopic diagnostics involving injected particle and laser beams. A brief overview of the ionization balance in hot plasmas and the relevant line and continuum radiation excitation mechanisms is given. Instrumentation in the soft X-ray, vacuum ultraviolet, ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared regions of the spectrum is described and examples of measurements are given. Paths for further development of these measurements and issues for their implementation in a burning plasma environment are discussed.

  10. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  11. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  12. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  13. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  14. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  15. STELLOPT Modeling of the 3D Diagnostic Response in ITER

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lazerson, Samuel A

    2013-05-07

    The ITER three dimensional diagnostic response to an n=3 resonant magnetic perturbation is modeled using the STELLOPT code. The in-vessel coils apply a resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) fi eld which generates a 4 cm edge displacement from axisymmetry as modeled by the VMEC 3D equilibrium code. Forward modeling of flux loop and magnetic probe response with the DIAGNO code indicates up to 20 % changes in measured plasma signals. Simulated LIDAR measurements of electron temperature indicate 2 cm shifts on the low field side of the plasma. This suggests that the ITER diagnostic will be able to diagnose the 3D structure of the equilibria.

  16. ARM - Evaluation Product - ARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Documentation Use the Data File Inventory tool to view data availability at the file level. Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Evaluation Product : ARM Diagnostics for Climate Model Evaluation [ ARM research - evaluation data product ] This data products include two types of data sets: 1. Observational data: we use long-term continuous forcing data

  17. High density harp or wire scanner for particle beam diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritsche, C.T.; Krogh, M.L.

    1996-05-21

    Disclosed is a diagnostic detector head harp used to detect and characterize high energy particle beams using an array of closely spaced detector wires, typically carbon wires, spaced less than 0.1 cm (0.040 inch) connected to a hybrid microcircuit formed on a ceramic substrate. A method to fabricate harps to obtain carbon wire spacing and density not previously available utilizing hybrid microcircuit technology. The hybrid microcircuit disposed on the ceramic substrate connects electrically between the detector wires and diagnostic equipment which analyzes pulses generated in the detector wires by the high energy particle beams. 6 figs.

  18. High density harp or wire scanner for particle beam diagnostics

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fritsche, Craig T.; Krogh, Michael L.

    1996-05-21

    A diagnostic detector head harp (23) used to detect and characterize high energy particle beams using an array of closely spaced detector wires (21), typically carbon wires, spaced less than 0.1 cm (0.040 inch) connected to a hybrid microcircuit (25) formed on a ceramic substrate (26). A method to fabricate harps (23) to obtain carbon wire spacing and density not previously available utilizing hybrid microcircuit technology. The hybrid microcircuit (25) disposed on the ceramic substrate (26) connects electrically between the detector wires (21) and diagnostic equipment (37) which analyzes pulses generated in the detector wires (21) by the high energy particle beams.

  19. Diagnostics for studies of novel laser ion acceleration mechanisms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Senje, Lovisa; Aurand, Bastian; Wahlström, Claes-Göran; Yeung, Mark; Kuschel, Stephan; Rödel, Christian; Wagner, Florian; Roth, Markus; Li, Kun; Neumayer, Paul; Dromey, Brendan; Jung, Daniel; Bagnoud, Vincent; Zepf, Matthew; Kuehl, Thomas

    2014-11-15

    Diagnostic for investigating and distinguishing different laser ion acceleration mechanisms has been developed and successfully tested. An ion separation wide angle spectrometer can simultaneously investigate three important aspects of the laser plasma interaction: (1) acquire angularly resolved energy spectra for two ion species, (2) obtain ion energy spectra for multiple species, separated according to their charge to mass ratio, along selected axes, and (3) collect laser radiation reflected from and transmitted through the target and propagating in the same direction as the ion beam. Thus, the presented diagnostic constitutes a highly adaptable tool for accurately studying novel acceleration mechanisms in terms of their angular energy distribution, conversion efficiency, and plasma density evolution.

  20. Hybrid opto-electric techniques for molecular diagnostics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haque, Aeraj Ul [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

    2012-01-01

    Hybrid optoelectric techniques reflect a new paradigm in microfluidics. In essence, these are microfluidic techniques that employ a synergistic combination of optical and electrical forces to enable noninvasive manipulation of fluids and/or particle-type entities at the micro/nano-scale [1]. Synergy between optical and electrical forces bestows these techniques with several unique features that are promising to bring new opportunities in molecular diagnostics. Within the scope of molecular diagnostics, several aspects of optoelectric techniques promise to play a relevant role. These include, but are not limited to, sample preparation, sorting, purification, amplification and detection.

  1. The heavy ion beam diagnostic for the tokamak ISTTOK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cabral, J.A.C.; Malaquias, A.; Praxedes, A.; Toledo, W. van; Varandas, C.A.F. )

    1994-08-01

    In this paper the authors describe the heavy ion beam diagnostic for the tokamak ISTTOK, which has been designed to determine the temporal evolution of the plasma density, poloidal magnetic field and plasma potential profiles. This diagnostic makes use of a new type of high density caesium plasma source, a multiple cell detector and a fast data acquisition system. The authors describe the numerical code for trajectory and beam attenuation simulations, a method for the experimental determination of the poloidal field profile, the ion gun and the detection, control and data acquisition systems. Calibration tests and the first experimental results are presented.

  2. Computation of Electron Cloud Diagnostics and Mitigation in the Main

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Injector | Argonne Leadership Computing Facility Computation of Electron Cloud Diagnostics and Mitigation in the Main Injector Authors: Veitzer, S.A., LeBrun, P., Cary, J.R., Spentzouris, P., Stoltz, P.H., Amundson, J.F. High-performance computations on Blue Gene/P at Argonne's Leadership Computing Facility have been used to determine phase shifts induced in injected RF diagnostics as a function of electron cloud density in the Main Injector. Inversion of the relationship between electron

  3. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  4. ARM - PI Product - SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsSCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : SCM Forcing Data Derived from NWP Analyses Forcing data, suitable for use with single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs), have been derived from NWP analyses for the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites of Manus Island and Nauru. Data Details

  5. Pilot project for a commercial buildings Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Center (EADC) program. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Capehart, B.L.

    1996-02-01

    Commercial energy use costs businesses around $70 billion annually. Many of these businesses are small and medium sized organizations that do not have the resources to help themselves, or to pay for professional engineering services to help reduce their energy costs and improve their economic competitiveness. Energy cost reduction actions with payback times of around two years could save the commercial sector 15--20%, or $10--$15 billion per year. This project was initially intended to evaluate the feasibility of performing commercial energy audits as an adjunct to the industrial audit program run by the US Department of Energy Industrial Office. This program is housed in 30 universities throughout the United States. Formerly known as Energy Analysis and Diagnostic Centers (EADC`s), the university programs are now called Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC`s) to reflect their expansion from energy use analyses to include waste and productivity analyses. The success of the EADC/IAC program in helping the manufacturing sector provides an excellent model for a similar program in the commercial buildings sector. This project has investigated using the EADC/IAC approach to performing energy audits for the commercial sector, and has determined that such an approach is feasible and cost effective.

  6. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  7. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  8. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  9. Status of the design of the ITER ECE diagnostic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Taylor, G.; Austin, M. E.; Beno, J. H.; Danani, S.; Feder, R.; Hesler, J. L.; Hubbard, A. E.; Johnson, D. W.; Kumar, R.; Pandya, H. K. B.; Roman, C.; Rowan, W. L.; Udintsev, V.; Vayakis, G.; Walsh, M.; Kubo, S.

    2015-03-12

    In this study, the baseline design for the ITER electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostic has entered the detailed preliminary design phase. Two plasma views are planned, a radial view and an oblique view that is sensitive to distortions in the electron momentum distribution near the average thermal momentum. Both views provide high spatial resolution electron temperature profiles when the momentum distribution remains Maxwellian. The ECE diagnostic system consists of the front-end optics, including two 1000 K calibration sources, in equatorial port plug EP9, the 70-1000 GHz transmission system from the front-end to the diagnostics hall, and the ECE instrumentation in the diagnostics hall. The baseline ECE instrumentation will include two Michelson interferometers that can simultaneously measure ordinary and extraordinary mode ECE from 70 to 1000 GHz, and two heterodyne radiometer systems, covering 122-230 GHz and 244-355 GHz. Significant design challenges include 1) developing highly-reliable 1000 K calibration sources and the associated shutters/mirrors, 2) providing compliant couplings between the front-end optics and the polarization splitter box that accommodate displacements of the vacuum vessel during plasma operations and bake out, 3) protecting components from damage due to stray ECH radiation and other intense millimeter wave emission and 4) providing the low-loss broadband transmission system.

  10. Status of the design of the ITER ECE diagnostic

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Taylor, G.; Austin, M. E.; Beno, J. H.; Danani, S.; Ellis, R. F.; Feder, R.; Hesler, J. L.; Hubbard, A. E.; Johnson, D. W.; Kumar, R.; et al

    2015-03-12

    In this study, the baseline design for the ITER electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostic has entered the detailed preliminary design phase. Two plasma views are planned, a radial view and an oblique view that is sensitive to distortions in the electron momentum distribution near the average thermal momentum. Both views provide high spatial resolution electron temperature profiles when the momentum distribution remains Maxwellian. The ECE diagnostic system consists of the front-end optics, including two 1000 K calibration sources, in equatorial port plug EP9, the 70-1000 GHz transmission system from the front-end to the diagnostics hall, and the ECE instrumentation inmore » the diagnostics hall. The baseline ECE instrumentation will include two Michelson interferometers that can simultaneously measure ordinary and extraordinary mode ECE from 70 to 1000 GHz, and two heterodyne radiometer systems, covering 122-230 GHz and 244-355 GHz. Significant design challenges include 1) developing highly-reliable 1000 K calibration sources and the associated shutters/mirrors, 2) providing compliant couplings between the front-end optics and the polarization splitter box that accommodate displacements of the vacuum vessel during plasma operations and bake out, 3) protecting components from damage due to stray ECH radiation and other intense millimeter wave emission and 4) providing the low-loss broadband transmission system.« less

  11. Soft x-ray diagnostics for pulsed power machines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Idzorek, G.C.; Coulter, W.L.; Walsh, P.J.; Montoya, R.R.

    1995-08-01

    A variety of soft x-ray diagnostics are being fielded on the Los Alamos National Laboratory Pegasus and Procyon pulsed power systems and also being fielded on joint US/Russian magnetized target fusion experiments known as MAGO (Magnitoye Obzhatiye). The authors have designed a low-cost modular photoemissive detector designated the XRD-96 that uses commercial 1100 series aluminum for the photocathode. In addition to photocathode detectors a number of designs using solid state silicon photodiodes have been designed and fielded. They also present a soft x-ray time-integrated pinhole camera system that uses standard type TMAX-400 photographic film that obviates the need for expensive and no longer produced zero-overcoat soft x-ray emulsion film. In a typical experiment the desired spectral energy cuts, signal intensity levels, and desired field of view will determine diagnostic geometry and x-ray filters selected. The authors have developed several computer codes to assist in the diagnostic design process and data deconvolution. Examples of the diagnostic design process and data analysis for a typical pulsed power experiment are presented.

  12. Electrically heated particulate filter diagnostic systems and methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gonze, Eugene V [Pinckney, MI

    2009-09-29

    A system that diagnoses regeneration of an electrically heated particulate filter is provided. The system generally includes a grid module that diagnoses a fault of the grid based on at least one of a current signal and a voltage signal. A diagnostic module at least one of sets a fault status and generates a warning signal based on the fault of the grid.

  13. Multifunctional ligand for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, K.V.; Volkert, W.A.; Ketring, A.R.; Singh, P.R.

    1996-05-14

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical are revealed. The ligand comprises either a phosphorous or germanium core and at least two hydrazine groups forming a ligand for bonding to a metal extending from the phosphorous or germanium core.

  14. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  15. Modernized active spectroscopic diagnostics (CXRS) of the T-10 tokamak

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krupin, V. A. Klyuchnikov, L. A. Korobov, K. V. Nemets, A. R. Nurgaliev, M. R.; Gorbunov, A. V.; Naumenko, N. N.; Troynov, V. I.; Tugarinov, S. N.; Fomin, F. V.

    2015-12-15

    This work presents the results of modernization of the CXRS (charge exchange recombination spectroscopy) diagnostics [1] at the T-10 tokamak. The relevance of this work is due to the importance of measurements of the ion temperature and nuclei density of the working gas and impurities for analysis of transport processes in the plasma ion component. Measurements of radial profiles of the ion temperature are extremely important for investigating the geodesic acoustic mode behavior which is conducted at the T-10 [2]. The modernized scheme of CXRS measurements, as well as the design and operational features of the spectrometer created for the new diagnostics, is described. Principles of data recording and further processing are considered in detail; attention is given to the problem of calibration of the whole complex of equipment. The performed changes in diagnostics allow the measurements to be taken simultaneously in three spectral intervals: in the region of the beam line H{sub α}, the CXRS line of carbon ion C{sup 5+}, and the CXRS line of one of the hydrogen-like ions: He{sup 1+}, Li{sup 2+}, N{sup 6+}, O{sup 7+} or Ne{sup 9+}. This makes it possible to measure the density profiles of two plasma impurities simultaneously, as well as the ion temperature from CXRS lines of different elements. The modernized diagnostics significantly broadens the possibilities of studying the physics of transport processes and quasi-coherent modes of plasma oscillations at the T-10.

  16. Multifunctional ligand for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Katti, Kattesh V.; Volkert, Wynn A.; Ketring, Alan R.; Singh, Prahlad R.

    1996-01-01

    A compound and method of making a compound for use as a diagnostic or therapeutic pharmaceutical comprises either a phosphorous or germanium core and at least two hydrazine groups forming a ligand for bonding to a metal extending from the phosphorous or germanium core.

  17. May 20, 2015 Webinar - Guidance for Conducting Technical Analyses...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance & RIsk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Webinar - May 20, 2015 - Guidance for Conducting Technical Analyses for 10 CFR Part 61 by Mr. Chris Grossman (NRC) ...

  18. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  19. Stillwater Hybrid Geo-Solar Power Plant Optimization Analyses (Conference)

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    | SciTech Connect Stillwater Hybrid Geo-Solar Power Plant Optimization Analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Stillwater Hybrid Geo-Solar Power Plant Optimization Analyses The Stillwater Power Plant is the first hybrid plant in the world able to bring together a medium-enthalpy geothermal unit with solar thermal and solar photovoltaic systems. Solar field and power plant models have been developed to predict the performance of the Stillwater geothermal / solar-thermal hybrid

  20. Overview of DOE-Supported Infrastructure Analyses Webinar

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE-Supported Infrastructure Analyses Webinar U.S. Department of Energy Fuel Cell Technologies Office July 24, 2013 2 | Fuel Cell Technologies Office eere.energy.gov * Introduction and webinar objectives * Analyses and Models * Examples * Component-level Models * Market Penetration * Transition Scenarios * Financial Models * Impact of Policies * Regional Models * Model enhancements * Next steps Agenda 3 | Fuel Cell Technologies Office eere.energy.gov H 2 USA is being formed as a public/private