National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasting system sources

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  7. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  8. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  9. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  13. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  15. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  16. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  17. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  19. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  20. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  1. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  2. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  3. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, Brian N. (Yakima, WA); Wu, Xin Di (San Jose, CA)

    1998-01-01

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metalorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition.

  4. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, B.N.; Wu, X.D.

    1998-10-13

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metallorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition. 13 figs.

  5. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  7. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  8. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  9. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  10. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  11. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  12. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  14. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  15. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  16. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, Charles W.; Beahm, Edward C.; Parker, George W.

    1995-01-01

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results.

  17. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, C.W.; Beahm, E.C.; Parker, G.W.

    1995-04-25

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results. 4 figs.

  18. High efficiency source coupler for optical waveguide illumination system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Siminovitch, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    A fiber optic or optical waveguide illumination system includes a source coupling system. The source coupling system includes an optical channel with an internal cavity. A light source is disposed inside the driving circuit. Coupling losses are minimized by placing the light source within the optical channel. The source cavity and the source optical channel can be shaped to enhance the amount of light captured in the channel by total internal reflection. Multiple light distribution waveguides can be connected to the source coupling channel to produce an illumination system.

  19. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  20. The use of predictive lithostratigraphy to significantly improve the ability to forecast reservoir and source rocks? Final CRADA report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doctor, R. D.; Moore, T. L.; Energy Systems

    2010-06-29

    The purpose of this CRADA, which ended in 2003, was to make reservoir and source rock distribution significantly more predictable by quantifying the fundamental controls on stratigraphic heterogeneity. To do this, the relationships among insolation, climate, sediment supply, glacioeustasy, and reservoir and source rock occurrence were investigated in detail. Work current at the inception of the CRADA had uncovered previously unrecognized associations among these processes and properties that produce a phenomenon that, when properly analyzed, will make lithostratigraphic variability (including texture, porosity, and permeability) substantially more understandable. Computer climate simulations of selected time periods, compared with the global distribution of paleoclimatic indicators, documented spatial and temporal climate changes as a function of insolation and provided quantitative changes in runoff, lake level, and glacioeustasy. The effect of elevation and climate on sediment yield was assessed numerically by analyzing digital terrain and climate data. The phase relationships of climate, yield, and glacioeustatic cycles from the Gulf of Mexico and/or other sedimentary basins were assessed by using lacunarity, a statistical technique.

  1. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  2. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  3. Power conditioning system for energy sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mazumder, Sudip K.; Burra, Rajni K.; Acharya, Kaustuva

    2008-05-13

    Apparatus for conditioning power generated by an energy source includes an inverter for converting a DC input voltage from the energy source to a square wave AC output voltage, and a converter for converting the AC output voltage from the inverter to a sine wave AC output voltage.

  4. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-07-01

    Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

  5. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng; Lai, Jih-Sheng

    1997-01-01

    A voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means.

  6. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of ... The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of ...

  7. Illumination system having a plurality of movable sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sweatt, William C.; Kubiak, Glenn D.

    2002-01-01

    An illumination system includes several discharge sources that are multiplexed together to reduce the amount of debris generated. The system includes: (a) a first electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of first activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a first movable carriage; (b) a second electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of second activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a second movable carriage; (c) means for directing electromagnetic radiation from the first electromagnetic radiation source array and electromagnetic radiation from the second electromagnetic radiation source array toward a common optical path; (d) means for synchronizing (i) the movements of the first movable carriage and of the second movable carriage and (ii) the activation of the first electromagnetic radiation source array and of the second electromagnetic radiation source array to provide an essentially continuous illumination of electromagnetic radiation along the common optical path.

  8. Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavriyev, Anton

    2014-03-27

    An alternative synchronization technique – one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

  9. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  10. Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kulp, Thomas Jan; Kliner, Dahv A. V.; Sommers, Ricky; Goers, Uta-Barbara; Armstrong, Karla M.

    2006-12-19

    The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

  11. Method and system of integrating information from multiple sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alford, Francine A.; Brinkerhoff, David L.

    2006-08-15

    A system and method of integrating information from multiple sources in a document centric application system. A plurality of application systems are connected through an object request broker to a central repository. The information may then be posted on a webpage. An example of an implementation of the method and system is an online procurement system.

  12. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  14. Connecting renewable power sources into the system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wetzler, F.U.

    1982-11-01

    The many technical, legal, and economic issues that must be overcome before windmills, fuel cells, and photovoltaics can serve existing grids ae discusssed. Distributed storage and generation sources (DSGs) consist of energy converters to transform sun, wind, or chemical energy into electricity; a power conditioner to convert dc to ac; relays, breakers, and fuses for equipment protection and personnel safety; and appropriate load-metering equipment for billing customers. Aside from windmills and windfarms, there are few utility owned DSGs. The Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (1978) requires utilities to permit the connection to their power grids of private DSGs with capacities of up to 80 MW. In addition, the utilities must purchase the power from the DSG owned at ''just and reasonable rates'' and offer to supply backup power if the owner's facility malfunctions. Before connecting to a utility line, a DSG entrepreneur must meet certain specifications spelled out by the participating utility. Long-range power-distribution strategies will be needed to assess various automated distribution schemes that have been proposed, together with communication techniques to control and coordinate the small and large DSG within a highly complex power grid.

  15. Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

    1985-06-01

    The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

  16. Industrial market for sulfur dioxide emission-control systems. Final report. [Forecasting to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-08-01

    Under the postulated EIA medium world oil price scenario, in which oil prices are projected to rise at a real rate of 2.2% per year, coal will represent from 78 to 91% of MFBI fuel consumption by the year 2000, up from the present 16%. This increase would occur even in the absence of FUA, because the cost of coal is substantially lower than the cost of oil or gas. Much of this market will develop in the relatively near to intermediate term (before 1990). Annual installations will be much lower (by about 40%) after that period, reflecting a lower overall steam demand growth rate and the fact that much of the discretionary conversion of gas and oil boilers to coal will have been completed. About 22% of the sales will be for discretionary conversion of oil and gas boilers still having some useful life; the rest will be for nondiscretionary expansion or replacement of worn-out boilers. Under the postulated cost and performance estimates for the competing coal-burning technologies, we expect that AFB combustors and lime spray dryer FGD systems will dominate the market, with 42% of the market in our base case scenario. If the attitudes of the industrial decision-makers are factored into the analyses, particularly their aversion to FGD systems with wet wastes, the AFB and lime spray dryer technologies will capture as much as 73% of the coal-burning market. Costs for the various flue gas desulfurization (FGD) technologies were projected to be sufficiently close that the selection of one over another will depend on site-specific factors such as the availability of waste disposal facilities, the demonstrated reliability of the particular systems, and the vendor's reputation.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  19. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, John H.; Stirling, William L.

    1986-01-01

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  20. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, J.H.; Stirling, W.L.

    1985-03-04

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  1. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  2. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  3. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  5. Guidelines for the implementation of an open source information system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.

    1995-08-01

    This work was initially performed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to help with the Open Source Task of the 93 + 2 Initiative; however, the information should be of interest to anyone working with open sources. The authors cover all aspects of an open source information system (OSIS) including, for example, identifying relevant sources, understanding copyright issues, and making information available to analysts. They foresee this document as a reference point that implementors of a system could augment for their particular needs. The primary organization of this document focuses on specific aspects, or components, of an OSIS; they describe each component and often make specific recommendations for its implementation. This document also contains a section discussing the process of collecting open source data and a section containing miscellaneous information. The appendix contains a listing of various providers, producers, and databases that the authors have come across in their research.

  6. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  7. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of

  8. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  9. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tainzhen; Liu, Xaiobing

    2009-11-01

    With the current movement toward net zero energy buildings, many technologies are promoted with emphasis on their superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerant flow (VRF) and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are probably the most competitive technologies among these. However, there are few studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems compared with GSHP systems. In this article, a preliminary comparison of energy efficiency between the air-source VRF and GSHP systems is presented. The computer simulation results show that GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRF system for conditioning a small office building in two selected US climates. In general, GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRV system, especially when the building has significant heating loads. For buildings with less heating loads, the GSHP system could still perform better than the air-source VRF system in terms of energy efficiency, but the resulting energy savings may be marginal.

  10. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  11. Small Business Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration |

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    (NNSA) Sourcing System NNSA is implementing a system housing small businesses that have participated in our Opportunity Sessions, and have completed the NNSA Capabilities Questionnaire. Information is gathered relevant to the performance of each small business and included in the system. Among the information contained is: Active contract vehicles Past performance information Primary performance areas Security clearance information Teaming partners As the database becomes more fully

  12. Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bornstein, Jonathan G.; Friedman, Peter S.

    1985-01-01

    A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

  13. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, W.K.; Stirling, W.L.

    1979-10-25

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employing crossed electric and magnetic fields, separates the electrons from the ions as they are extracted from the ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90/sup 0/ to each other, the electrons remain at approximately the electrical potential at which they were generated. The electromagnetic forces cause the ions to be accelerated to the full accelerating supply voltage energy while being deflected through an angle of less than 90/sup 0/. The electrons precess out of the accelerating field region into an electron recovery region where they are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply energy. It is possible, by this method, to collect > 90% of the electrons extracted along with the negative ions from a negative ion source beam at < 4% of full energy.

  14. NiSource Energy Technologies Inc.: System Integration of Distributed Power for Complete Building Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2003-10-01

    Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

  15. Central airport energy systems using alternate energy sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-07-01

    The purpose of this project was to develop the concept of a central airport energy system designed to supply energy for aircraft ground support and terminal complex utility systems using municipal waste as a fuel. The major task was to estimate the potential for reducing aircraft and terminal fuel consumption by the use of alternate renewable energy sources. Additional efforts included an assessment of indirect benefits of reducing airport atmospheric and noise pollution.

  16. Combined Electric Machine and Current Source Inverter Drive System - Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovation Portal Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Advanced Materials Advanced Materials Find More Like This Return to Search Combined Electric Machine and Current Source Inverter Drive System Oak Ridge National Laboratory Contact ORNL About This Technology Publications: PDF Document Publication 11-G00249_ID2505.pdf (764 KB) Technology Marketing SummaryThis technology is a drive system that includes a permanent magnet-less (PM-L) electric motor

  17. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  18. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  20. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  1. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  2. Electric machine and current source inverter drive system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hsu, John S

    2014-06-24

    A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

  3. Cesium Delivery System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Pandya, K.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382 428 (India); Bandyopadhyay, M.; Chakraborty, A.; Singh, M. J. [ITER- India, Institute for Plasma Research, A-29, Sector 25, GIDC, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2011-09-26

    The technique of surface production of negative ions using cesium, Cs, has been efficiently exploited over the years for producing negative ion beams with increased current densities from negative ion sources used on neutral beam lines. Deposition of Cs on the source walls and the plasma grid lowers the work function and therefore enables a higher yield of H{sup -}, when hydrogen particles (H and/or H{sub x}{sup +}) strike these surfaces.A single driver RF based (100 kW, 1 MHz) negative ion source test bed, ROBIN, is being set up at IPR under a technical collaboration between IPR and IPP, Germany. The optimization of the Cs oven design to be used on this facility as well as multidriver sources is underway. The characterization experiments of such a Cs delivery system with a 1 g Cs inventory have been carried out using surface ionization technique. The experiments have been carried by delivering Cs into a vacuum chamber without plasma. The linear motion of the surface ionization detector, SID, attached with a linear motion feedthrough allows measuring the angular distribution of the Cs coming out of the oven. Based on the experimental results, a Cs oven for ROBIN has been proposed. The Cs oven design and experimental results of the prototype Cs oven are reported and discussed in the paper.

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. Optical laser systems at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Minitti, Michael P.; Robinson, Joseph S.; Coffee, Ryan N.; Edstrom, Steve; Gilevich, Sasha; Glownia, James M.; Granados, Eduardo; Hering, Philippe; Hoffmann, Matthias C.; Miahnahri, Alan; et al

    2015-04-22

    Ultrafast optical lasers play an essential role in exploiting the unique capabilities of recently commissioned X-ray free-electron laser facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Pump–probe experimental techniques reveal ultrafast dynamics in atomic and molecular processes and reveal new insights in chemistry, biology, material science and high-energy-density physics. This manuscript describes the laser systems and experimental methods that enable cutting-edge optical laser/X-ray pump–probe experiments to be performed at LCLS.

  8. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, William K.; Stirling, William L.

    1982-01-01

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employs crossed electric and magnetic fields to separate the electrons from ions as they are extracted from a negative ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full kinetic energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90.degree. to each other, the electrons are separated from the plasma and remain at approximately the electrical potential of the generator in which they were generated. The electrons migrate from the ion beam path in a precessing motion out of the ion accelerating field region into an electron recovery region provided by a specially designed electron collector electrode. The electron collector electrode is uniformly spaced from a surface of the ion generator which is transverse to the direction of migration of the electrons and the two surfaces are contoured in a matching relationship which departs from a planar configuration to provide an electric field component in the recovery region which is parallel to the magnetic field thereby forcing the electrons to be directed into and collected by the electron collector electrode. The collector electrode is maintained at a potential slightly positive with respect to the ion generator so that the electrons are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply voltage energy.

  9. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  10. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  12. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  13. SOURCE?

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on the direction and maintanence of the core code * The code base is platform- neutral ... Its core function is to allow users to merge multiple sources of building energy data into ...

  14. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  15. Multiple delivery cesium oven system for negative ion sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Bhartiya, S.; Pandya, K.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, M. J.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382428 (India)

    2012-02-15

    Distribution of cesium in large negative ion beam sources to be operational in ITER, is presently based on the use of three or more cesium ovens, which operate simultaneously and are controlled remotely. However, use of multiple Cs ovens simultaneously is likely to pose difficulties in operation and maintenance of the ovens. An alternate method of Cs delivery, based on a single oven distribution system is proposed as one which could reduce the need of simultaneous operation of many ovens. A proof of principle experiment verifying the concept of a multinozzle distributor based Cs oven has been carried out at Institute for Plasma Research. It is also observed that the Cs flux is not controlled by Cs reservoir temperature after few hours of operation but by the temperature of the distributor which starts behaving as a Cs reservoir.

  16. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System April 4, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis Ball State ...

  17. Case Study for a Ground Source Heat Pump System using Mine Water...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    System using Mine Water as Heat Sink and Source Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Case Study for a Ground Source Heat Pump System using Mine Water as Heat Sink and ...

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  19. Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

    2010-02-01

    The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

  20. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  1. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  2. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  3. Simulation of H{sup -} ion source extraction systems for the Spallation Neutron Source with Ion Beam Simulator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kalvas, T.; Tarvainen, O.; Welton, R. F.; Han, B. X.; Stockli, M. P.

    2012-02-15

    A three-dimensional ion optical code IBSimu, which is being developed at University of Jyvaeskylae, features positive and negative ion plasma extraction models and self-consistent space charge calculation. The code has been utilized for modeling the existing extraction system of the H{sup -} ion source of the Spallation Neutron Source. Simulation results are in good agreement with experimental data. A high-current extraction system with downstream electron dumping at intermediate energy has been designed. According to the simulations it provides lower emittance compared to the baseline system at H{sup -} currents exceeding 40 mA. A magnetic low energy beam transport section consisting of two solenoids has been designed to transport the beam from the alternative electrostatic extraction systems to the radio frequency quadrupole.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  7. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  8. Method and system for imaging a radiation source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Myjak, Mitchell J. [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. [Kennewick, WA

    2011-04-19

    A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  10. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  11. Plasma phenomenology in astrophysical systems: Radio-sources and jets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Montani, Giovanni; Petitta, Jacopo

    2014-06-15

    We review the plasma phenomenology in the astrophysical sources which show appreciable radio emissions, namely Radio-Jets from Pulsars, Microquasars, Quasars, and Radio-Active Galaxies. A description of their basic features is presented, then we discuss in some details the links between their morphology and the mechanisms that lead to the different radio-emissions, investigating especially the role played by the plasma configurations surrounding compact objects (Neutron Stars, Black Holes). For the sake of completeness, we briefly mention observational techniques and detectors, whose structure set them apart from other astrophysical instruments. The fundamental ideas concerning angular momentum transport across plasma accretion disks—together with the disk-source-jet coupling problem—are discussed, by stressing their successes and their shortcomings. An alternative scenario is then inferred, based on a parallelism between astrophysical and laboratory plasma configurations, where small-scale structures can be found. We will focus our attention on the morphology of the radio-jets, on their coupling with the accretion disks and on the possible triggering phenomena, viewed as profiles of plasma instabilities.

  12. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  13. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  14. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  15. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  16. System and Method for Sealing a Vapor Deposition Source - Energy...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An apparatus for movably sealing a deposition chamber from the rest of a fabrication ... there is a need to seal the deposition chamber from the rest of the system under vacuum. ...

  17. COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01

    In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

  18. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  20. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  1. ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

    2010-09-01

    The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  3. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  4. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  6. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  7. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  8. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  9. System for recovery of daughter isotopes from a source material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tranter, Troy J [Idaho Falls, ID; Todd, Terry A [Aberdeen, ID; Lewis, Leroy C [Idaho Falls, ID; Henscheid, Joseph P [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-08-04

    A method of separating isotopes from a mixture containing at least two isotopes in a solution is disclosed. A first isotope is precipitated and is collected from the solution. A daughter isotope is generated and collected from the first isotope. The invention includes a method of producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product from a material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232. A solution is formed containing nitric acid and the material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232, and iodate is added to form a thorium iodate precipitate. A supernatant is separated from the thorium iodate precipitate and a second volume of nitric acid is added to the thorium iodate precipitate. The thorium iodate precipitate is stored and a decay product comprising actinium-225 and bismuth-213 is generated in the second volume of nitric acid, which is then separated from the thorium iodate precipitate, filtered, and treated using at least one chromatographic procedure. A system for producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product is also disclosed.

  10. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  11. Status of the SNS H- ion source and low-energy beam transport system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keller, R.; Thomae, R.; Stockli, M.; Welton, R.

    2002-04-01

    The ion source and Low-Energy Transport (LEBT) system that will provide H{sup -} ion beams to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Front End and the accelerator chain have been developed into a mature unit that will satisfy the operational needs through the commissioning and early operating phases of SNS. The ion source was derived from the SSC ion source, and many of its original features have been improved to achieve reliable operation at 6% duty factor, producing beam currents in the 35-mA range and above. The LEBT utilizes purely electrostatic focusing and includes static beam-steering elements and a pre-chopper. This paper will discuss the latest design features of the ion source and LEBT, give performance data for the integrated system, and report on relevant commissioning results obtained with the SNS RFQ accelerator. Perspectives for further improvements will be outlined in concluding remarks.

  12. Test bench to commission a third ion source beam line and a newly designed extraction system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winkelmann, T.; Cee, R.; Haberer, T.; Naas, B.; Peters, A.

    2012-02-15

    The HIT (Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center) is the first hospital-based treatment facility in Europe where patients can be irradiated with protons and carbon ions. Since the commissioning starting in 2006 two 14.5 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion sources are routinely used to produce a variety of ion beams from protons up to oxygen. In the future a helium beam for regular patient treatment is requested, therefore a third ion source (Supernanogan source from PANTECHNIK S.A.) will be integrated. This third ECR source with a newly designed extraction system and a spectrometer line is installed at a test bench at HIT to commission and validate this section. Measurements with different extraction system setups will be presented to show the improvement of beam quality for helium, proton, and carbon beams. An outlook to the possible integration scheme of the new ion source into the production facility will be discussed.

  13. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  16. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  17. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  19. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power transmission systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnes, P.R.; Dykas, W.P.; Kirby, B.J.; Purucker, S.L.; Lawler, J.S.

    1995-07-01

    Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines are nonconventional, environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources (very sunny or windy areas) are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. This study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these high-capacity renewable sources ranged from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility.

  20. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ball State University has completed its campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system, DOE announced on March 20. DOE played a part in the project by providing a $5 million grant through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

  1. Ball State University Completes Nation's Largest Ground-Source Geothermal System with Support from Recovery Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of the Obama Administration's all-of-the-above approach to American energy, the Energy Department today congratulated Ball State University for its campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system.

  2. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 2, Utility case assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaininger, H.W.; Ellis, P.R.; Schaefer, J.C.

    1994-06-01

    Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: (1) The local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics; (2) renewable energy source penetration level; (3) whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied; and (4) local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kw-scale applications may be connected to three-phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and MW-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications.

  3. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayedČ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  4. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  5. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  6. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  7. Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, and chemical reactant sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kong, Peter C

    2013-11-26

    Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, chemical reactant sources, and related methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor system comprising a reaction chamber, a combustion torch positioned to direct a flame into the reaction chamber, and one or more reactant feed assemblies configured to electrically energize at least one electrically conductive solid reactant structure to form a plasma and feed each electrically conductive solid reactant structure into the plasma to form at least one product is disclosed. In an additional embodiment, a chemical reactant source for a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor comprising an elongated electrically conductive reactant structure consisting essentially of at least one chemical reactant is disclosed. In further embodiments, methods of forming a chemical reactant source and methods of chemically converting at least one reactant into at least one product are disclosed.

  8. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  9. GEO3D - Three-Dimensional Computer Model of a Ground Source Heat Pump System

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    James Menart

    2013-06-07

    This file is the setup file for the computer program GEO3D. GEO3D is a computer program written by Jim Menart to simulate vertical wells in conjunction with a heat pump for ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems. This is a very detailed three-dimensional computer model. This program produces detailed heat transfer and temperature field information for a vertical GSHP system.

  10. Sources of CO and UHC Emissions in Low-Temperature Diesel Combustion Systems

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The sources of unburned hydrocarbons and CO emissions from a PCI-like, early-injection low-temperature combustion system are examined through a combination of homogeneous reactor modeling employing detailed kinetics, multi-dimensional modeling using a reduced kinetic scheme, engine-out emissions measurements, and in-cylinder imaging of the spatial distributions of UHC and CO.

  11. Electron emission in a source-collector sheath system: A kinetic study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rizopoulou, N. Coppins, M.; Bacharis, M.; Robinson, A. P. L.

    2014-10-15

    The classical source-collector sheath system describes a plasma that forms between a Maxwellian source and an absorbing wall. The plasma is assumed to be collisionless and without ionization. Two distinct areas are being formed: the collector sheath, an ion-rich region in contact with the absorbing boundary, and the source sheath, which is an electron-rich area near the Maxwellian source. In this work, we study a modified version of the classical source-collector sheath system, where the wall is no longer absorbing but emits electrons. As a result, we have two different types of collector sheath, one where a potential well is formed and one without a potential well. We examine the effect of electron emission for a range of conditions for the plasma and the emitted electrons. In the first part of this work, we study the problem analytically, and in the second, using our kinetic Vlasov code, Yggdrasil. The simulation results are in very good agreement with the predictions of our theoretical model.

  12. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  13. Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghafghazi, Saeed; Sowlati, T.; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Melin, Staffan

    2011-03-01

    Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these

  14. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  16. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  17. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

  18. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Short Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the a brief overview of the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems. A full report of this case study is also available.

  19. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, ...

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  1. A simplified fuzzy model to mimic a nonlinear system, applied to a plasma source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Z.; Rayner, J.; Cheetham, A.; Lund, T.

    1997-02-01

    This paper develops a fuzzy model to simulate the behavior of a nonlinear system, in particular a plasma source, with a view to developing a control system for materials processing plasmas employing a helicon source. Genetic algorithms are employed to optimize fuzzy rules related to the parameters of the fuzzy model which contain a set of variable zeros and poles of the nonlinear system as well as its time delay. A practical application of the fuzzy model is to estimate the electron number density of a low-temperature plasma. Based on the membership functions of the input and output, a set of fuzzy rules by which the variable zeros and poles are identified is derived and optimized u sing a genetic algorithm. The principal reason for investigating the proposed fuzzy model is the subsequent computer-aided design of a fuzzy controller to control the nonlinear system. Two experimental results are presented to validate the fuzzy model method. One shows a computer simulation and the other predicts the real-time behavior of the plasma source as its input parameters are varied.

  2. The oil and gas potential of southern Bolivia: Contributions from a dual source rock system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartshorn, K.G.

    1996-08-01

    The southern Sub-Andean and Chaco basins of Bolivia produce oil, gas and condensate from reservoirs ranging from Devonian to Tertiary in age. Geochemical evidence points to contributions from two Paleozoic source rocks: the Devonian Los Monos Formation and the Silurian Kirusillas Formation. Rock-Eval pyrolysis, biomarker data, microscopic kerogen analysis, and burial history modeling are used to assess the quality, distribution, and maturity of both source rock systems. The geochemical results are then integrated with the structural model for the area in order to determine the most likely pathways for migration of oil and gas in the thrust belt and its foreland. Geochemical analysis and modeling show that the primary source rock, shales of the Devonian Los Monos Formation, entered the oil window during the initial phase of thrusting in the sub-Andean belt. This provides ideal timing for oil accumulation in younger reservoirs of the thrust belt. The secondary source rock, although richer, consumed most of its oil generating capacity prior to the development of the thrust related structures. Depending on burial depth and location, however, the Silurian source still contributes gas, and some oil, to traps in the region.

  3. Ion source development for a photoneutralization based NBI system for fusion reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simonin, A.; Esch, H. P. L. de; Garibaldi, P.; Grand, C.; Bechu, S.; Bès, A.; Lacoste, A.

    2015-04-08

    The next step after ITER is to demonstrate the viability and generation of electricity by a future fusion reactor (DEMO). The specifications required to operate an NBI system on DEMO are very demanding. The system has to provide a very high level of power and energy, ~100MW of D° beam at 1MeV, including high wall-plug efficiency (? > 60%). For this purpose, a new injector concept, called Siphore, is under investigation between CEA and French universities. Siphore is based on the stripping of the accelerated negative ions by photo-detachment provided by several Fabry-Perot cavities (3.5MW of light power per cavity) implemented along the D{sup ?} beam. The beamline is designed to be tall and narrow in order that the photon flux overlaps the entire negative ion beam. The paper will describe the present R and D at CEA which addresses the development of an ion source and pre-accelerator prototypes for Siphore, the main goal being to produce an intense negative ion beam sheet. The negative ion source Cybele is based on a magnetized plasma column where hot electrons are emitted from the source center. Parametric studies of the source are performed using Langmuir probes in order to characterize the plasma and to compare with numerical models being developed in French universities.

  4. Gas Feeding System Supplying the U-400M Cyclotron Ion Source with Hydrogen Isotopes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yukhimchuk, A.A.; Angilopov, V.V.; Apasov, V.A.

    2005-07-15

    Automated system feeding into ion source hydrogen isotopes as molecules with preset ratio of the fluxes is described. The control system automatically maintained the working parameters and provided graphic and digital representation of the controlled processes. The radiofrequency (RF) ion source installed at the axial injection line of the cyclotron produced ion beams of HD{sup +}, HT{sup +}, DT{sup +}, D{sub 2}H{sup +}, etc. At a several months DT{sup +} beam acceleration the tritium consumption was less than 108 Bq/hr. The intensity of a 58.2 MeV triton beam (T{sup +} ions) extracted from the cyclotron chamber was about 10 nA.

  5. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  6. Design Study of the Extraction System of the 3rd Generation ECR Ion Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leitner, M.A.; Lyneis, C.M.; Taylor, C.E.; Wutte, D.; Xie, Z.Q.

    1998-10-06

    A design study for the extraction system of the 3rd Generation super conducting ECR ion source at LBNL is presented. The magnetic design of the ion source has a mirror field of 4 T at the injection and 3 T at the extraction side and a radial field of 2.4 T at the plasma chamber wall. Therefore, the ion beam formation takes place in a strong axial magnetic field. Furthermore the axial field drops from 3 T to 0.4 T within the first 30 cm. The influence of the high magnetic field on the ion beam extraction and matching to the beam line is investigated. The extraction system is first simulated with the 2D ion trajectory code IGUN with an estimated mean charge state of the extracted ion beam. These results are then compared with the 2D code AXCEL-INP, which can simulate the extraction of ions with different charge states. Finally, the influence of the strong magnetic hexapole field is studied with the three dimensional ion optics code KOBRA. The introduced tool set can be used to optimize the extraction system of the super conducting ECR ion source.

  7. Isotopic evidence of source variations in commingled magma systems: Colorado River extensional corridor, Arizona and Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Metcalf, R.V.; Smith, E.I.; Martin, M.W. . Dept. of Geoscience); Gonzales, D.A.; Walker, J.D. . Isotope Geochronology Lab.)

    1993-04-01

    Mixing of mantle derived mafic and crustal derived felsic magmas is a major Province-wide process forming Tertiary intermediate magmas within the Basin and Range. Major variations in magma sources, however, may exist in temporally and spatially related systems. Such variations are exemplified by two closely spaced plutons within the northern Colorado River extensional corridor. The 15.96 Ma Mt. Perkins pluton (MPP) was emplaced in three major phases: phase 1 (oldest) gabbro; phase 2 quartz diorite to hornblende granodiorite; and phase 3 biotite granodiorite ([+-]hbld). Phases 2 and 3 contain mafic microgranitoid enclaves (MME) that exhibit evidence of magma mingling. Combined data from phase 2 and 3 rocks, including MMW, shows positive [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr and negative [var epsilon]Nd correlations vs. SiO[sub 2] (50--72 wt %). Phase 2 rocks, which plot between phase 2 MME and MME-free phase 3 granodiorite, represent hybrid magmas formed by mixing of mantle and crustal derived magmas. Phase 1 gabbro falls off isotope-SiO[sub 2] trends and represents a separate mantle derived magma. The 13.2 Ma Wilson Ridge pluton (WRP), <20 km north of MPP, is cogenetic with the river Mountains volcano (RMV). In WRP an early diorite was intruded by a suite of monzodiorite to quartz monzonite. The monzodiorite portion contains MME and mafic schlieren representing mingled and mixed mafic magmas. The WRP and MPP represent two closely spaced isotopically distinct and separate magma systems. There are five magma sources. The two felsic mixing end members represent two different crustal magma sources. Two mantle sources are presented by MPP phase 1 gabbro and phase 2 MME, reflecting lithospheric and asthenospheric components, respectively. The latter represents the oldest reported Tertiary asthenospheric component within the region. A single lithospheric mantle source, different from the MPP gabbro, is indicated for the mafic mixing end member in the WRP-RMV suite.

  8. Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jurns, John M.; BĂ€ck, Harald; Gierow, Martin

    2014-01-29

    The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

  9. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  10. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2010-10-01

    A new high-fidelity integrated system method and analysis approach was developed and implemented for consistent and comprehensive evaluations of advanced fuel cycles leading to minimized Transuranic (TRU) inventories. The method has been implemented in a developed code system integrating capabilities of Monte Carlo N - Particle Extended (MCNPX) for high-fidelity fuel cycle component simulations. In this report, a Nuclear Energy System (NES) configuration was developed to take advantage of used fuel recycling and transmutation capabilities in waste management scenarios leading to minimized TRU waste inventories, long-term activities, and radiotoxicities. The reactor systems and fuel cycle components that make up the NES were selected for their ability to perform in tandem to produce clean, safe, and dependable energy in an environmentally conscious manner. The diversity in performance and spectral characteristics were used to enhance TRU waste elimination while efficiently utilizing uranium resources and providing an abundant energy source. A computational modeling approach was developed for integrating the individual models of the NES. A general approach was utilized allowing for the Integrated System Model (ISM) to be modified in order to provide simulation for other systems with similar attributes. By utilizing this approach, the ISM is capable of performing system evaluations under many different design parameter options. Additionally, the predictive capabilities of the ISM and its computational time efficiency allow for system sensitivity/uncertainty analysis and the implementation of optimization techniques.

  11. Analyzer-based phase-contrast imaging system using a micro focus x-ray source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Wei; Majidi, Keivan; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2014-08-15

    Here we describe a new in-laboratory analyzer based phase contrast-imaging (ABI) instrument using a conventional X-ray tube source (CXS) aimed at bio-medical imaging applications. Phase contrast-imaging allows visualization of soft tissue details usually obscured in conventional X-ray imaging. The ABI system design and major features are described in detail. The key advantage of the presented system, over the few existing CXS ABI systems, is that it does not require high precision components, i.e., CXS, X-ray detector, and electro-mechanical components. To overcome a main problem introduced by these components, identified as temperature stability, the system components are kept at a constant temperature inside of three enclosures, thus minimizing the electrical and mechanical thermal drifts. This is achieved by using thermoelectric (Peltier) cooling/heating modules that are easy to control precisely. For CXS we utilized a microfocus X-ray source with tungsten (W) anode material. In addition the proposed system eliminates tungsten's multiple spectral lines by selecting monochromator crystal size appropriately therefore eliminating need for the costly mismatched, two-crystal monochromator. The system imaging was fine-tuned for tungsten Kα{sub 1} line with the energy of 59.3 keV since it has been shown to be of great clinical significance by a number of researchers at synchrotron facilities. In this way a laboratory system that can be used for evaluating and quantifying tissue properties, initially explored at synchrotron facilities, would be of great interest to a larger research community. To demonstrate the imaging capability of our instrument we use a chicken thigh tissue sample.

  12. A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Banks, T. I.; Freedman, S. J.; Wallig, J.; Ybarrolaza, N.; Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Kishimoto, Y.; Koga, M.; Mitsui, T.; Nakamura, K.; Shimizu, I.; Shirai, J.; Suzuki, A.; Takemoto, Y.; Tamae, K.; Ueshima, K.; Watanabe, H.; Xu, B. D.; Yoshida, H.; Yoshida, S.; Kozlov, A.; Grant, C.; Keefer, G.; Piepke, A.; Bloxham, T.; Fujikawa, B. K.; Han, K.; Ichimura, K.; Murayama, H.; OŚłDonnell, T.; Steiner, H. M.; Winslow, L. A.; Dwyer, D. A.; McKeown, R. D.; Zhang, C.; Berger, B. E.; Lane, C. E.; Maricic, J.; Miletic, T.; Batygov, M.; Learned, J. G.; Matsuno, S.; Sakai, M.; Horton-Smith, G. A.; Downum, K. E.; Gratta, G.; Efremenko, Y.; Perevozchikov, O.; Karwowski, H. J.; Markoff, D. M.; Tornow, W.; Heeger, K. M.; Detwiler, J. A.; Enomoto, S.; Decowski, M. P.

    2014-10-14

    We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealed housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. Finally, an infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable’s motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.

  13. System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Musick, Charles R.; Critchlow, Terence; Ganesh, Madhaven; Slezak, Tom; Fidelis, Krzysztof

    2006-12-19

    A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

  14. A transverse bunch by bunch feedback system for Pohang Light Source upgrade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, E.-H.; Kim, D.-T.; Huang, J.-Y.; Shin, S.; Nakamura, T.; Kobayashi, K.

    2014-12-15

    The Pohang Light Source upgrade (PLS-II) project has successfully upgraded the Pohang Light Source (PLS). The main goals of the PLS-II project are to increase the beam energy to 3 GeV, increase the number of insertion devices by a factor of two (20 IDs), increase the beam current to 400 mA, and at the same time reduce the beam emittance to below 10 nm by using the existing PLS tunnel and injection system. Among 20 insertion devices, 10 narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are in operation now and two more in-vacuum undulators are to be installed later. Since these narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are most likely to produce coupled bunch instability by the resistive wall impedance and limit the stored beam current, a bunch by bunch feedback system is implemented to suppress coupled bunch instability in the PLS-II. This paper describes the scheme and performance of the PLS-II bunch by bunch feedback system.

  15. System and method for sonic wave measurements using an acoustic beam source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Sinha, Dipen N.; Pantea, Cristian

    2015-08-11

    A method and system for investigating structure near a borehole are described herein. The method includes generating an acoustic beam by an acoustic source; directing at one or more azimuthal angles the acoustic beam towards a selected location in a vicinity of a borehole; receiving at one or more receivers an acoustic signal, the acoustic signal originating from a reflection or a refraction of the acoustic wave by a material at the selected location; and analyzing the received acoustic signal to characterize features of the material around the borehole.

  16. Method of and system for determining locations of sources of harmonics in a power distribution network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hayes, R.M.; Kirkpatrick, T.L.; Lauletta, J.L.; Shuter, T.C.; Vollkommer, H.T. Jr.

    1987-05-19

    A system is described for determining directions of locations of sources of power harmonics relative to a node interconnecting n branches of a power distribution network, where n is an integer greater than or equal to 2, comprising: voltage transducer means for monitoring voltage waveforms in at least (n-1) of the n branches; current transducer means for monitoring current waveforms in at least (n-1) branches; means for sampling the current and voltage waveforms to obtain analog current and voltage waveform samples; A/D converter means for digitizing the analog waveform samples; and spectrum analyzer means for resolving the digitized samples into their respective harmonic components.

  17. The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Source-term release formulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Streile, G.P.; Shields, K.D.; Stroh, J.L.; Bagaasen, L.M.; Whelan, G.; McDonald, J.P.; Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-11-01

    This report is one of a series of reports that document the mathematical models in the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). Developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, MEPAS is an integrated impact assessment software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models in air, soil, and water media. Outputs are estimates of exposures and health risk assessments for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. Each of the MEPAS formulation documents covers a major MEPAS component such as source-term, atmospheric, vadose zone/groundwater, surface water, and health exposure/health impact assessment. Other MEPAS documentation reports cover the sensitivity/uncertainty formulations and the database parameter constituent property estimation methods. The pollutant source-term release component is documented in this report. MEPAS simulates the release of contaminants from a source, transport through the air, groundwater, surface water, or overland pathways, and transfer through food chains and exposure pathways to the exposed individual or population. For human health impacts, risks are computed for carcinogens and hazard quotients for noncarcinogens. MEPAS is implemented on a desktop computer with a user-friendly interface that allows the user to define the problem, input the required data, and execute the appropriate models for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses.

  18. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2009-09-01

    The impact associated with energy generation and utilization is immeasurable due to the immense, widespread, and myriad effects it has on the world and its inhabitants. The polar extremes are demonstrated on the one hand, by the high quality of life enjoyed by individuals with access to abundant reliable energy sources, and on the other hand by the global-scale environmental degradation attributed to the affects of energy production and use. Thus, nations strive to increase their energy generation, but are faced with the challenge of doing so with a minimal impact on the environment and in a manner that is self-reliant. Consequently, a revival of interest in nuclear energy has followed, with much focus placed on technologies for transmuting nuclear spent fuel. The performed research investigates nuclear energy systems that optimize the destruction of nuclear waste. In the context of this effort, nuclear energy system is defined as a configuration of nuclear reactors and corresponding fuel cycle components. The proposed system has unique characteristics that set it apart from other systems. Most notably the dedicated High-Energy External Source Transmuter (HEST), which is envisioned as an advanced incinerator used in combination with thermal reactors. The system is configured for examining environmentally benign fuel cycle options by focusing on minimization or elimination of high level waste inventories. Detailed high-fidelity exact-geometry models were developed for representative reactor configurations. They were used in preliminary calculations with Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtented (MCNPX) and Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code systems. The reactor models have been benchmarked against existing experimental data and design data. Simulink{reg_sign}, an extension of MATLAB{reg_sign}, is envisioned as the interface environment for constructing the nuclear energy system model by linking the individual reactor and fuel component sub

  19. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  1. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  2. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  4. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  6. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  8. Operating characteristics of a new ion source for KSTAR neutral beam injection system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Tae-Seong Jeong, Seung Ho; Chang, Doo-Hee; Lee, Kwang Won; In, Sang-Ryul

    2014-02-15

    A new positive ion source for the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research neutral beam injection (KSTAR NBI-1) system was designed, fabricated, and assembled in 2011. The characteristics of the arc discharge and beam extraction were investigated using hydrogen and helium gas to find the optimum operating parameters of the arc power, filament voltage, gas pressure, extracting voltage, accelerating voltage, and decelerating voltage at the neutral beam test stand at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in 2012. Based on the optimum operating condition, the new ion source was then conditioned, and performance tests were primarily finished. The accelerator system with enlarged apertures can extract a maximum 65 A ion beam with a beam energy of 100 keV. The arc efficiency and optimum beam perveance, at which the beam divergence is at a minimum, are estimated to be 1.0 A/kW and 2.5 uP, respectively. The beam extraction tests show that the design goal of delivering a 2 MW deuterium neutral beam into the KSTAR Tokamak plasma is achievable.

  9. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  10. Model for the heat source of the Cerro Prieto magma-hydrothermal system, Baja California, Mexico

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elders, W.A.; Bird, D.K.; Williams, A.E.; Schiffman, P.; Cox, B.

    1981-01-01

    Earlier studies at Cerro Prieto led to the development of a qualitative model for fluid flow in the geothermal system before it was drilled and perturbed by production. Current efforts are directed towards numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in the system in this undisturbed state. This one-dimensional model assumes that the heat source was a single basalt/gabbro intrusion which provided heat to the system as it cooled. After compilation of various information of the physical properties of the reservoir, the enthalpy contained in two 1 cm thick sections across the reservoir orthogonal to each other was calculated. Various shapes, sizes and depths for the intrusion were considered as initial conditions and boundary conditions for the calculations of heat transfer. A family of numerical models which so far gives the best matches to the conditions observed in the field today have in common a funnel-shaped intrusion with a top 4 km wide emplaced at a depth of 5 km some 30,000 to 50,000 years ago, providing heat to the geothermal system.

  11. Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K.

    2014-01-29

    China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

  12. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  13. A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Banks, T. I.; Freedman, S. J.; Wallig, J.; Ybarrolaza, N.; Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Kishimoto, Y.; Koga, M.; et al

    2014-10-14

    We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealedmore » housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. Finally, an infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable’s motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.« less

  14. Proposed second harmonic acceleration system for the intense pulsed neutron source rapid cycling synchrotron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norem, J.; Brandeberry, F.; Rauchas, A.

    1983-01-01

    The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) operating at Argonne National Laboratory is presently producing intensities of 2 to 2.5 x 10/sup 12/ protons per pulse (ppp) with the addition of a new ion source. This intensity is close to the space charge limit of the machine, estimated at approx.3 x 10/sup 12/ ppp, depending somewhat on the available aperture. With the present good performance in mind, accelerator improvements are being directed at: (1) increasing beam intensities for neutron science; (2) lowering acceleration losses to minimize activation; and (3) gaining better control of the beam so that losses can be made to occur when and where they can be most easily controlled. On the basis of preliminary measurements, we are now proposing a third cavity for the RF systems which would provide control of the longitudinal bunch shape during the cycle which would permit raising the effective space charge limit of the accelerator and reducing losses.

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. GEO2D - Two-Dimensional Computer Model of a Ground Source Heat Pump System

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    James Menart

    2013-06-07

    This file contains a zipped file that contains many files required to run GEO2D. GEO2D is a computer code for simulating ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems in two-dimensions. GEO2D performs a detailed finite difference simulation of the heat transfer occurring within the working fluid, the tube wall, the grout, and the ground. Both horizontal and vertical wells can be simulated with this program, but it should be noted that the vertical wall is modeled as a single tube. This program also models the heat pump in conjunction with the heat transfer occurring. GEO2D simulates the heat pump and ground loop as a system. Many results are produced by GEO2D as a function of time and position, such as heat transfer rates, temperatures and heat pump performance. On top of this information from an economic comparison between the geothermal system simulated and a comparable air heat pump systems or a comparable gas, oil or propane heating systems with a vapor compression air conditioner. The version of GEO2D in the attached file has been coupled to the DOE heating and cooling load software called ENERGYPLUS. This is a great convenience for the user because heating and cooling loads are an input to GEO2D. GEO2D is a user friendly program that uses a graphical user interface for inputs and outputs. These make entering data simple and they produce many plotted results that are easy to understand. In order to run GEO2D access to MATLAB is required. If this program is not available on your computer you can download the program MCRInstaller.exe, the 64 bit version, from the MATLAB website or from this geothermal depository. This is a free download which will enable you to run GEO2D..

  17. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  19. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  20. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F.; Burnett, Greg C.; Ng, Lawrence C.

    2007-10-16

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  1. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F; Burnett, Greg C; Ng, Lawrence C

    2013-05-21

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  2. System and method for characterizing synthesizing and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F.; Burnett, Greg C.; Ng, Lawrence C.

    2003-01-01

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  3. General Purpose Kernel Integration Shielding Code System-Point and Extended Gamma-Ray Sources.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1981-06-11

    PELSHIE3 calculates dose rates from gamma-emitting sources with different source geometries and shielding configurations. Eight source geometries are provided and are called by means of geometry index numbers. Gamma-emission characteristics for 134 isotopes, attenuation coefficients for 57 elements or shielding materials and Berger build-up parameters for 17 shielding materials can be obtained from a direct access data library by specifying only the appropriate library numbers. A different option allows these data to be read frommore » cards. For extended sources, constant source strengths as well as exponential and Bessel function source strength distributions are allowed in most cases.« less

  4. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  5. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  6. Microwave plasma source for neutral-beam injection systems. Quarterly technical progress report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-05-13

    Conceptual design studies of a cusp field rf ion source are described. A diagram of the thruster is given. (MOW)

  7. Update on maintenance and service costs of commercial building ground-source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cane, D.; Garnet, J.M.

    2000-07-01

    An earlier paper showed that commercial ground-source heat pump systems have significantly lower service and maintenance costs than alternative HVAC systems. This paper expands on those results by adding 13 more buildings to the original 25 sites and by comparing the results to the latest ASHRAE survey of HVAC maintenance costs. Data from the 38 sites are presented here including total (scheduled and unscheduled) maintenance costs in cents per square foot per year for base cost, in-house, and contractor-provided maintenance. Because some of the new sites had maintenance costs that were much higher than the industry norm, the resulting data are not normally distributed. Analysis (O'Hara Hines 1998) indicated that a log-normal distribution is a better fit; thus, the data are analyzed and presented here as log-normal. The log-mean annual total maintenance costs for the most recent year of the survey ranged from 6.07 cents per square foot to 8.37 cents per square foot for base cost and contractor-provided maintenance, respectively.

  8. Integrated Heat Pump (IHP) System Development - Air-Source IHP Control Strategy and Specifications and Ground-Source IHP Conceptual Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Richard W; Rice, C Keith; Baxter, Van D

    2007-05-01

    The integrated heat pump (IHP), as one appliance, can provide space cooling, heating, ventilation, and dehumidification while maintaining comfort and meeting domestic water heating needs in near-zero-energy home (NZEH) applications. In FY 2006 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) completed development of a control strategy and system specification for an air-source IHP. The conceptual design of a ground-source IHP was also completed. Testing and analysis confirm the potential of both IHP concepts to meet NZEH energy services needs while consuming 50% less energy than a suite of equipment that meets current minimum efficiency requirements. This report is in fulfillment of an FY06 DOE Building Technologies (BT) Joule Milestone.

  9. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-12-01

    The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

  10. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  11. Recovery Act: Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James A Menart, Professor

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems. The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The

  12. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menart, James A.

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ?Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump

  13. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  17. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting. | Department of Energy 0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. (297.93 KB) More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011 Update

  18. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  19. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  20. OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY SPALLATION NEUTRON SOURCE ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS AVAILABILITY AND IMPROVEMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, Roy I; Peplov, Vladimir V; Wezensky, Mark W; Norris, Kevin Paul; Barnett, William E; Hicks, Jim; Weaver, Joey T; Moss, John; Rust, Kenneth R; Mize, Jeffery J; Anderson, David E

    2011-01-01

    SNS electrical systems have been operational for 4 years. System availability statistics and improvements are presented for AC electrical systems, DC and pulsed power supplies and klystron modulators.

  1. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  3. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objective: Create a new modeling decisionŽ tool that will enable ground source heat pump (GSHP) designers and customers to make better design and purchasing decisions.

  4. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  5. A dual neutron/gamma source for the Fissmat Inspection for Nuclear Detection (FIND) system.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, Barney Lee; King, Michael; Rossi, Paolo; McDaniel, Floyd Del; Morse, Daniel Henry; Antolak, Arlyn J.; Provencio, Paula Polyak; Raber, Thomas N.

    2008-12-01

    Shielded special nuclear material (SNM) is very difficult to detect and new technologies are needed to clear alarms and verify the presence of SNM. High-energy photons and neutrons can be used to actively interrogate for heavily shielded SNM, such as highly enriched uranium (HEU), since neutrons can penetrate gamma-ray shielding and gamma-rays can penetrate neutron shielding. Both source particles then induce unique detectable signals from fission. In this LDRD, we explored a new type of interrogation source that uses low-energy proton- or deuteron-induced nuclear reactions to generate high fluxes of mono-energetic gammas or neutrons. Accelerator-based experiments, computational studies, and prototype source tests were performed to obtain a better understanding of (1) the flux requirements, (2) fission-induced signals, background, and interferences, and (3) operational performance of the source. The results of this research led to the development and testing of an axial-type gamma tube source and the design/construction of a high power coaxial-type gamma generator based on the {sup 11}B(p,{gamma}){sup 12}C nuclear reaction.

  6. Luminescent light source for laser pumping and laser system containing same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hamil, Roy A.; Ashley, Carol S.; Brinker, C. Jeffrey; Reed, Scott; Walko, Robert J.

    1994-01-01

    The invention relates to a pumping lamp for use with lasers comprising a porous substrate loaded with a component capable of emitting light upon interaction of the component with exciting radiation and a source of exciting radiation. Preferably, the pumping lamp comprises a source of exciting radiation, such as an electron beam, and an aerogel or xerogel substrate loaded with a component capable of interacting with the exciting radiation, e.g., a phosphor, to produce light, e.g., visible light, of a suitable band width and of a sufficient intensity to generate a laser beam from a laser material.

  7. Conceptual Design, Implementation and Commissioning of Data Acquisition and Control System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soni, Jignesh; Gahlaut, A.; Bansal, G.; Parmar, K. G.; Pandya, K.; Chakraborty, A.; Yadav, Ratnakar; Singh, M. J.; Bandyopadhyay, M.

    2011-09-26

    Negative ion Experimental facility has been setup at IPR. The facility consists of a RF based negative ion source (ROBIN)--procured under a license agreement with IPP Garching, as a replica of BATMAN, presently operating in IPP, 100 kW 1 MHz RF generators and a set of low and high voltage power supplies, vacuum system and diagnostics. 35 keV 10A H- beam is expected from this setup. Automated successful operation of the system requires an advanced, rugged, time proven and flexible control system. Further the data generated in the experimental phase needs to be acquired, monitored and analyzed to verify and judge the system performance. In the present test bed, this is done using a combination of PLC based control system and a PXI based data acquisition system. The control system consists of three different Siemens PLC systems viz. (1) S-7 400 PLC as a Master Control, (2) S-7 300 PLC for Vacuum system control and (3) C-7 PLC for RF generator control. Master control PLC directly controls all the subsystems except the Vacuum system and RF generator. The Vacuum system and RF generator have their own dedicated PLCs (S-7 300 and C-7 respectively). Further, these two PLC systems work as a slave for the Master control PLC system. Communication between PLC S-7 400, S-7 300 and central control room computer is done through Industrial Ethernet (IE). Control program and GUI are developed in Siemens Step-7 PLC programming software and Wincc SCADA software, respectively. There are approximately 150 analog and 200 digital control and monitoring signals required to perform complete closed loop control of the system. Since the source floats at high potential ({approx}35 kV); a combination of galvanic and fiber optic isolation has been implemented. PXI based Data Acquisition system (DAS) is a combination of PXI RT (Real time) system, front end signal conditioning electronics, host system and DAQ program. All the acquisition signals coming from various sub-systems are connected and

  8. Evaluation of a lithium formate EPR dosimetry system for dose measurements around {sup 192}Ir brachytherapy sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antonovic, Laura; Gustafsson, Haakan; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Carlsson Tedgren, Aasa

    2009-06-15

    A dosimetry system using lithium formate monohydrate (HCO{sub 2}Li{center_dot}H{sub 2}O) as detector material and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy for readout has been used to measure absorbed dose distributions around clinical {sup 192}Ir sources. Cylindrical tablets with diameter of 4.5 mm, height of 4.8 mm, and density of 1.26 g/cm{sup 3} were manufactured. Homogeneity test and calibration of the dosimeters were performed in a 6 MV photon beam. {sup 192}Ir irradiations were performed in a PMMA phantom using two different source models, the GammaMed Plus HDR and the microSelectron PDR-v1 model. Measured absorbed doses to water in the PMMA phantom were converted to the corresponding absorbed doses to water in water phantoms of dimensions used by the treatment planning systems (TPSs) using correction factors explicitly derived for this experiment. Experimentally determined absorbed doses agreed with the absorbed doses to water calculated by the TPS to within {+-}2.9%. Relative standard uncertainties in the experimentally determined absorbed doses were estimated to be within the range of 1.7%-1.3% depending on the radial distance from the source, the type of source (HDR or PDR), and the particular absorbed doses used. This work shows that a lithium formate dosimetry system is well suited for measurements of absorbed dose to water around clinical HDR and PDR {sup 192}Ir sources. Being less energy dependent than the commonly used thermoluminescent lithium fluoride (LiF) dosimeters, lithium formate monohydrate dosimeters are well suited to measure absorbed doses in situations where the energy dependence cannot easily be accounted for such as in multiple-source irradiations to verify treatment plans. Their wide dynamic range and linear dose response over the dose interval of 0.2-1000 Gy make them suitable for measurements on sources of the strengths used in clinical applications. The dosimeter size needs, however, to be reduced for application to

  9. ACT-ARA: Code System for the Calculation of Changes in Radiological Source Terms with Time

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1988-02-01

    The program calculates the source term activity as a function of time for parent isotopes as well as daughters. Also, at each time, the "probable release" is produced. Finally, the program determines the time integrated probable release for each isotope over the time period of interest.

  10. Distribution system stability, reliability and protective relaying due to incorporation of dispersed energy sources. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allison, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    This thesis discusses impacts and issues brought about by the enactment of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978. The United States power grid has a history of safe, economical, reliable service that, some feel, is threatened by the encroachment of small Dispersed Energy Sources, with possible inexperienced developers. The quality of electrical power from such sources is in question, as is power grid stability and reliability. Safety is another factor where methodry is subject to the incentives of the party whose viewpoint is sought. Much controversy is caused by the Act leaving methods of implementation to the individual States. The settlement, in one State, of some question in dispute forms no basis for extrapolation into other States. This leaves a potential developer with some uncertainty as to his options and advantages in assessing the incentives for investing in a Dispersed Energy Source. And such incentives form the thrust of the Act. This thesis brings these issues to the force and examines them for significance and possible resolution. It evaluates the outlook for significance and possible resolution. It evaluates the outlook of the Utility, the Dispersed Energy Source, and the Public for motivation and attempts to strike a balance between their opinions in reaching conclusions. Gray areas are addressed and possible remedies are offered.

  11. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  12. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  13. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  14. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  15. Sensivitity improvement in low-profile distributed detector systems for tracking sources in transit.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vilim, R. B.; Klann, R.; Campos, C.; Medley, T.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2007-01-01

    The RadTrac real-time detection and tracking software runs on a laptop computer networked to gamma-radiation detectors. A probabilistic estimate for source position is generated by combining measured count rate data with a first-principles stochastic model for the space and time dependence of count rates and knowledge of detector intrinsic efficiency. Recent development work has focused on improving RadTrac sensitivity in low-count rate situations. A method has been developed for processing count rates by energy according to that part of the energy spectrum with the greatest signal-to-noise ratio. In addition a method has been developed that places constraints on the solution that are physically appropriate when count rates approach background. In both instances experiments with a weak source confirmed the uncertainty in estimated position is reduced.

  16. In-situ X-ray diffraction system using sources and detectors at fixed angular positions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gibson, David M.; Gibson, Walter M.; Huang, Huapeng

    2007-06-26

    An x-ray diffraction technique for measuring a known characteristic of a sample of a material in an in-situ state. The technique includes using an x-ray source for emitting substantially divergent x-ray radiation--with a collimating optic disposed with respect to the fixed source for producing a substantially parallel beam of x-ray radiation by receiving and redirecting the divergent paths of the divergent x-ray radiation. A first x-ray detector collects radiation diffracted from the sample; wherein the source and detector are fixed, during operation thereof, in position relative to each other and in at least one dimension relative to the sample according to a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample. A second x-ray detector may be fixed relative to the first x-ray detector according to the a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample, especially in a phase monitoring embodiment of the present invention.

  17. Integration of Novel Flux Coupling Motor and Current Source Inverter |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Operations | Department of Energy Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power forecasting techniques into the operational tools used by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to forecast customer load, and then validate their efficacy at enabling

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  19. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  20. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  2. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  6. Interaction of plasmas in laser ion source with double laser system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuwa, Y.; Ikeda, S.; Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Tokyo ; Kumaki, M.; Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Tokyo ; Sekine, M.; Department of Nuclear Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro, Tokyo ; Cinquegrani, D.; Romanelli, M.; Kanesue, T.; Okamura, M.; Iwashita, Y.

    2014-02-15

    Multiple laser shots could be used to elongate an ion beam pulse width or to intensify beam current from laser ion sources. In order to confirm the feasibility of the multiple shot scheme, we investigated the properties of plasmas produced by double laser shots. We found that when the interval of the laser shots is shorter than 10 ?s, the ion current profile had a prominent peak, which is not observed in single laser experiments. The height of this peak was up to five times larger than that of single laser experiment.

  7. Radio frequency ion source operated with field effect transistor based radio frequency system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ando, A.; Komuro, A.; Matsuno, T.; Tsumori, K.; Takeiri, Y.

    2010-02-15

    Characteristics of radio frequency (RF) plasma production are investigated using a field effect transistor inverter power supply as an RF wave source. With the frequency of around 0.3 MHz, an electron density over 10{sup 18} m{sup -3} is produced in argon plasma. Although lower densities are obtained in hydrogen plasma, it drastically increased up to 5x10{sup 18} m{sup -3} with an axial magnetic field of around 100 G applied in the driver region. Effects of the magnetic field and gas pressure are investigated in the RF produced plasma with the frequency of several hundred kilohertz.

  8. GPHS-RTG system explosion test direct course experiment 5000. [General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01

    The General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) has been designed and is being built to provide electrical power for spacecrafts to be launched on the Space Shuttle. The objective of the RTG System Explosion Test was to expose a mock-up of the GPHS-RTG with a simulated heat source to the overpressure and impulse representative of a potential upper magnitude explosion of the Space Shuttle. The test was designed so that the heat source module would experience an overpressure at which the survival of the fuel element cladding would be expected to be marginal. Thus, the mock-up was placed where the predicted incident overpressure would be 1300 psi. The mock-up was mounted in an orientation representative of the launch configuration on the spacecraft to be used on the NASA Galileo Mission. The incident overpressure measured was in the range of 1400 to 2100 psi. The mock-up and simulated heat source were destroyed and only very small fragments were recovered. This damage is believed to have resulted from a combination of the overpressure and impact by very high velocity fragments from the ANFO sphere. Post-test analysis indicated that extreme working of the iridium clad material occurred, indicative of intensive impulsive loading on the metal.

  9. Source and Extraction for Simultaneous Four-hall Beam Delivery System at CEBAF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazimi, Reza; Wang, Haipeng; Spata, Mike F.; Hansknecht, John C.

    2013-06-01

    A new design for simultaneous delivery of the electron beam to all four 12 GeV CEBAF experimental halls* requires a new 750 MHz RF separator system in the 5th pass extraction region, a 250 MHz repetition rate for its beams, and addition of a fourth laser at the photo-cathode gun. The proposed system works in tandem with the existing 500 MHz RF separators and beam repetition rate on the lower passes. The new 5th pass RF separators will have the same basic design but modified to run at 750 MHz. The change to the beam repetition rate will be at the photo-cathode gun through an innovative upgrade of the seed laser driver system using electro-optic modulators. The new laser system also allows addition of the fourth laser. The new RF separators, the new laser system and other hardware changes required to implement the Four-Hall operation delivery system will be discussed in this paper.

  10. Sensitivity calibration of an imaging extreme ultraviolet spectrometer-detector system for determining the efficiency of broadband extreme ultraviolet sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuchs, S.; Roedel, C.; Bierbach, J.; Paz, A. E.; Foerster, E.; Paulus, G. G.; Krebs, M.; Haedrich, S.; Limpert, J.; Kuschel, S.; Wuensche, M.; Hilbert, V.; Zastrau, U.

    2013-02-15

    We report on the absolute sensitivity calibration of an extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer system that is frequently employed to study emission from short-pulse laser experiments. The XUV spectrometer, consisting of a toroidal mirror and a transmission grating, was characterized at a synchrotron source in respect of the ratio of the detected to the incident photon flux at photon energies ranging from 15.5 eV to 99 eV. The absolute calibration allows the determination of the XUV photon number emitted by laser-based XUV sources, e.g., high-harmonic generation from plasma surfaces or in gaseous media. We have demonstrated high-harmonic generation in gases and plasma surfaces providing 2.3 {mu}W and {mu}J per harmonic using the respective generation mechanisms.

  11. System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

    2014-12-30

    A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.

  12. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  13. PARAMETRIC STUDY OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM FOR HOT AND HUMID CLMATE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01

    The U-tube sizes and varied thermal conductivity with different grout materials are studied based on the benchmark residential building in Hot-humid Pensacola, Florida. In this study, the benchmark building is metered and the data is used to validate the simulation model. And a list of comparative simulation cases with varied parameter value are simulated to study the importance of pipe size and grout to the ground source heat pump energy consumption. The simulation software TRNSYS [1] is employed to fulfill this task. The results show the preliminary energy saving based on varied parameters. Future work needs to be conducted for the cost analysis, include the installation cost from contractor and materials cost.

  14. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  15. Advanced Soldier Thermoelectric Power System for Power Generation from Battlefield Heat Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendricks, Terry J.; Hogan, Tim; Case, Eldon D.; Cauchy, Charles J.

    2010-09-01

    The U.S. military uses large amounts of fuel during deployments and battlefield operations. This project sought to develop a lightweight, small form-factor, soldier-portable advanced thermoelectric (TE) system prototype to recover and convert waste heat from various deployed military equipment (i.e., diesel generators/engines, incinerators, vehicles, and potentially mobile kitchens), with the ultimate purpose of producing power for soldier battery charging, advanced capacitor charging, and other battlefield power applications. The technical approach employed microchannel technology, a unique “power panel” approach to heat exchange/TE system integration, and newly-characterized LAST (lead-antimony-silver-telluride) and LASTT (lead-antimony-silver-tin-telluride) TE materials segmented with bismuth telluride TE materials in designing a segmented-element TE power module and system. This project researched never-before-addressed system integration challenges (thermal expansion, thermal diffusion, electrical interconnection, thermal and electrical interfaces) of designing thin “power panels” consisting of alternating layers of thin, microchannel heat exchangers (hot and cold) sandwiching thin, segmented-element TE power generators. The TE properties, structurally properties, and thermal fatigue behavior of LAST and LASTT materials were developed and characterized such that the first segmented-element TE modules using LAST / LASTT materials were fabricated and tested at hot-side temperatures = 400 °C and cold-side temperatures = 40 °C. LAST / LASTT materials were successfully segmented with bismuth telluride and electrically interconnected with diffusion barrier materials and copper strapping within the module electrical circuit. A TE system design was developed to produce 1.5-1.6 kW of electrical energy using these new TE modules from the exhaust waste heat of 60-kW Tactical Quiet Generators as demonstration vehicles.

  16. Technical Feasibility Study for Deployment of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard -- Kittery, Maine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hillesheim, M.; Mosey, G.

    2014-11-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, in accordance with the RE-Powering America's Lands initiative, engaged the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct feasibility studies to assess the viability of developing renewable energy generating facilities on contaminated sites. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY) is a United States Navy facility located on a series of conjoined islands in the Piscataqua River between Kittery, ME and Portsmouth, NH. EPA engaged NREL to conduct a study to determine technical feasibility of deploying ground-source heat pump systems to help PNSY achieve energy reduction goals.

  17. Optics Supply Planning System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gaylord, J

    2009-04-30

    The purpose of this study is to specify the design for an initial optics supply planning system for NIF, and to present quality assurance and test plans for the construction of the system as specified. The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a large laser facility that is just starting operations. Thousands of specialized optics are required to operate the laser, and must be exchanged over time based on the laser shot plan and predictions of damage. Careful planning and tracking of optic exchanges is necessary because of the tight inventory of spare optics, and the long lead times for optics procurements and production changes. Automated inventory forecasting and production planning tools are required to replace existing manual processes. The optics groups members who are expected to use the supply planning system are the stakeholders for this project, and are divided into three groups. Each of these groups participated in a requirements specification that was used to develop this design. (1) Optics Management--These are the top level stakeholdersk, and the final decision makers. This group is the interface to shot operations, is ultimately responsible for optics supply, and decides which exchanges will be made. (2) Work Center Managers--This group manages the on site optics processing work centers. They schedule the daily work center operations, and are responsible for developing long term processing, equipment, and staffing plans. (3) Component Engineers--This group manages the vendor contracts for the manufacture of new optics and the off site rework of existing optics. They are responsible for sourcing vendors, negotiating contracts, and managing vendor processes. The scope of this analysis is to describe the structure and design details of a system that will meet all requirements that were described by stakeholders and documented in the analysis model for this project. The design specifies the architecture, components, interfaces, and data stores of the system

  18. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  19. STAR: The Secure Transportable Autonomous Reactor System - Encapsulated Fission Heat Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehud Greenspan

    2003-10-31

    OAK-B135 The Encapsulated Nuclear Heat Source (ENHS) is a novel 125 MWth fast spectrum reactor concept that was selected by the 1999 DOE NERI program as a candidate ''Generation-IV'' reactor. It uses Pb-Bi or other liquid-metal coolant and is intended to be factory manufactured in large numbers to be economically competitive. It is anticipated to be most useful to developing countries. The US team studying the feasibility of the ENHS reactor concept consisted of the University of California, Berkeley, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Westinghouse. Collaborating with the US team were three Korean organizations: Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korean Advanced Institute for Science and Technology (KAIST) and the University of Seoul, as well as the Central Research Institute of the Electrical Power Industry (CRIEPI) of Japan. Unique features of the ENHS include at least 20 years of operation without refueling; no fuel handling in the host country; no pumps and valves; excess reactivity does not exceed 1$; fully passive removal of the decay heat; very small probability of core damaging accidents; autonomous operation and capability of load-following over a wide range; very long plant life. In addition it offers a close match between demand and supply, large tolerance to human errors, is likely to get public acceptance via demonstration of superb safety, lack of need for offsite response, and very good proliferation resistance. The ENHS reactor is designed to meet the requirements of Generation IV reactors including sustainable energy supply, low waste, high level of proliferation resistance, high level of safety and reliability, acceptable risk to capital and, hopefully, also competitive busbar cost of electricity.

  20. Creating an EPICS Based Test Stand Development System for a BPM Digitizer of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-06-22

    The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is required to deliver a high quality electron beam for producing coherent X-rays. As a result, high resolution beam position monitoring is required. The Beam Position Monitor (BPM) digitizer acquires analog signals from the beam line and digitizes them to obtain beam position data. Although Matlab is currently being used to test the BPM digitizer?s functions and capability, the Controls Department at SLAC prefers to use Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS). This paper discusses the transition of providing similar as well as enhanced functionalities, than those offered by Matlab, to test the digitizer. Altogether, the improved test stand development system can perform mathematical and statistical calculations with the waveform signals acquired from the digitizer and compute the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of the signals. Finally, logging of meaningful data into files has been added.

  1. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using low-power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W.; Habbersett, Robert C.

    2014-07-01

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  2. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using a low power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W; Habbersett, Robert C

    2013-10-22

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  3. UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

    2011-10-01

    This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses

  4. LARGE PECULIAR MOTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM FROM THE DIPOLE ANISOTROPY IN SKY BRIGHTNESS DUE TO DISTANT RADIO SOURCES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singal, Ashok K.

    2011-12-15

    According to the cosmological principle, the universe should appear isotropic, without any preferred directions, to an observer whom we may consider to be fixed in the comoving coordinate system of the expanding universe. Such an observer is stationary with respect to the average distribution of the matter in the universe and the sky brightness at any frequency should appear uniform in all directions to such an observer. However, a peculiar motion of such an observer, due to a combined effect of Doppler boosting and aberration, will introduce a dipole anisotropy in the observed sky brightness; in reverse an observed dipole anisotropy in the sky brightness could be used to infer the peculiar velocity of the observer with respect to the average universe. We determine the peculiar velocity of the solar system relative to the frame of distant radio sources, by studying the anisotropy in the sky brightness from discrete radio sources, i.e., an integrated emission from discrete sources per unit solid angle. Our results give a direction of the velocity vector in agreement with the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) value, but the magnitude ({approx}1600 {+-} 400 km s{sup -1}) is {approx}4 times the CMBR value (369 {+-} 1 km s{sup -1}) at a statistically significant ({approx}3{sigma}) level. A genuine difference between the two dipoles would imply an anisotropic universe, with the anisotropy changing with the epoch. This would violate the cosmological principle where the isotropy of the universe is assumed for all epochs, and on which the whole modern cosmology is based upon.

  5. Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. The current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.

  6. Development of a radio frequency ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for neutral beam injection system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choe, Kyumin; Jung, Bongki; Chung, Kyoung-Jae; Hwang, Y. S.; Center for Advance Research in Fusion Reactor Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744

    2014-02-15

    Despite of high plasma density, helicon plasma has not yet been applied to a large area ion source such as a driver for neutral beam injection (NBI) system due to intrinsically poor plasma uniformity in the discharge region. In this study, a radio-frequency (RF) ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for high plasma density with good uniformity has been designed and constructed for the NBI system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus at Seoul National University. The ion source consists of a rectangular plasma expansion chamber (120 Ś 120 Ś 120 mm{sup 3}), four helicon plasma injectors with annular permanent magnets and RF power system. Main feature of the source is downstream plasma confinement in the cusp magnetic field configuration which is generated by arranging polarities of permanent magnets in the helicon plasma injectors. In this paper, detailed design of the multi-helicon plasma injector and plasma characteristics of the ion source are presented.

  7. Effect of Cracow program elimination of low emission sources upon the energy management system in Cracow

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Friedberg, J.; Goerlich, K.; Glowacki, K.

    1995-12-31

    At the end of the 1980s, the energy management at the local level-like the whole set of such utility services-was based upon respective enterprises subject to a certain supervision of the establishing body and to a control of the District Inspectorate of Energy Management. Those enterprises that deal with generation and supply of heat energy to the local market, with distribution of heat, natural gas and electricity, operated as state companies; the last two branches made a part of either regional or national companies. Irrespective of the aforesaid, the co-generation power plants existed usually outside the heat generation and supply system. The business economics of these enterprises was not subject to any market rules whatsoever, the prices were controlled and the customers had no right of choice of the energy supplier. From the very beginning the low emission elimination program assumed to have commercial rules introduced in the energy management. Thus, it turned out necessary to prepare the market - to draw up inventory of the conditions and needs related with heat supply and to take up market solutions as well. The management system, and in particular the items specified below, is discussed. The co-operation of energy distribution enterprises has been based upon a voluntary agreement (The Team for Energy Suppliers) so as to agree upon the basic actions of the respective partners; joint actions have been taken up more and more willingly.

  8. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Foundation heat exchangers for residential ground source heat pump systems Numerical modeling and experimental validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xing, Lu; Cullin, James; Spitler, Jeffery; Im, Piljae; Fisher, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    A new type of ground heat exchanger that utilizes the excavation often made for basements or foundations has been proposed as an alternative to conventional ground heat exchangers. This article describes a numerical model that can be used to size these foundation heat exchanger (FHX) systems. The numerical model is a two-dimensional finite-volume model that considers a wide variety of factors, such as soil freezing and evapotranspiration. The FHX numerical model is validated with one year of experimental data collected at an experimental house located near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model shows good agreement with the experimental data-heat pump entering fluid temperatures typically within 1 C (1.8 F) - with minor discrepancies due to approximations, such as constant moisture content throughout the year, uniform evapotranspiration over the seasons, and lack of ground shading in the model.

  10. A simplified radionuclide source term for total-system performance assessment; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilson, M.L.

    1991-11-01

    A parametric model for releases of radionuclides from spent-nuclear-fuel containers in a waste repository is presented. The model is appropriate for use in preliminary total-system performance assessments of the potential repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada; for this reason it is simpler than the models used for detailed studies of waste-package performance. Terms are included for releases from the spent fuel pellets, from the pellet/cladding gap and the grain boundaries within the fuel pellets, from the cladding of the fuel rods, and from the radioactive fuel-assembly parts. Multiple barriers are considered, including the waste container, the fuel-rod cladding, the thermal ``dry-out``, and the waste form itself. The basic formulas for release from a single fuel rod or container are extended to formulas for expected releases for the whole repository by using analytic expressions for probability distributions of some important parameters. 39 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  11. Characteristics of Hydrogen Negative Ion Source with FET based RF System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ando, A.; Matsuno, T.; Funaoi, T.; Tanaka, N.; Tsumori, K.; Takeiri, Y.

    2011-09-26

    Characteristics of radio frequency (RF) plasma production were investigated using a FET inverter power supply as a RF generator. High density hydrogen plasma was obtained using an external coil wound a cylindrical ceramic tube (driver region) with RF frequency of lower than 0.5 MHz. When an axial magnetic field around 10 mT was applied to the driver region, an electron density increased drastically and attained to over 10{sup 19} m{sup -3} in the driver region. Effect of the axial magnetic field in driver and expansion region was examined. Lower gas pressure operation below 0.5 Pa was possible with higher RF frequency. H{sup -} density in the expansion region was measured by using laser photo-detachment system. It decreased as the axial magnetic field applied, which was caused by the increase of energetic electron from the driver.

  12. Operational characteristics of the J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system for a spallation neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tatsumoto, Hideki; Ohtsu, Kiichi; Aso, Tomokazu; Kawakami, Yoshihiko; Teshigawara, Makoto

    2014-01-29

    The J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system provides supercritical hydrogen with the para-hydrogen concentration of more than 99 % and the temperature of less than 20 K to three moderators so as to provide cold pulsed neutron beams of a higher neutronic performance. Furthermore, the temperature fluctuation of the feed hydrogen stream is required to be within ± 0.25 K. A stable 300-kW proton beam operation has been carried out since November 2012. The para-hydrogen concentrations were measured during the cool-down process. It is confirmed that para-hydrogen always exists in the equilibrium concentration because of the installation of an ortho-para hydrogen convertor. Propagation characteristics of temperature fluctuation were measured by temporarily changing the heater power under off-beam condition to clarify the effects of a heater control for thermal compensation on the feed temperature fluctuation. The experimental data gave an allowable temperature fluctuation of ± 1.05 K. It is clarified through a 286-kW and a 524-kW proton beam operations that the heater control would be applicable for the 1-MW proton beam operation by extrapolating from the experimental data.

  13. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  14. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  15. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  16. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  17. Horizontal drilling in the Bakken Formation - The hunt for an elephant that never left the source system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Price, L. ); Le Fever, J. )

    1991-06-01

    New organic-geochemical studies show that bitumen extracted from the upper and lower shale members of the Mississippian Madison Group oils, and that the Bakken shales have contributed only a minor percentage of the conventionally produced oil in the Williston basin. Instead, organic-rich madison marls are an adequate source for the Madison oils. Also, few pathways exist for vertical migration of Bakken-generated oil to shallower Madison reservoirs. Vertical wells in older Bakken oil pools are perforated in one or all of the three units adjacent to the two Bakken shales but are not necessarily perforated in the Bakken shales. Rock-Eval analyses of 6- to 12-in. spaced core samples show that where Bakken shales are thermally mature, the three adjacent organic-poor units contain 10-20 times the hydrocarbons (HCs) they could have generated. Thus, Bakken-generated HCs appear to have moved into the three adjacent units, probably via fractures created by volume expansion of organic matter during HC generation in the Bakken shales. Bakken well histories reveal that unsuccessful Bakken wells appear due to questionable techniques during these operations and not a lack of fractures. If a large in-place resource base exists in the Bakken source system, its commercial recovery will depend on new exploration, drilling, completion, and production technologies and on how much of the generated oil is in fractures rather than dispersed throughout the rocks.

  18. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  19. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  1. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  2. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  3. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  4. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  5. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  6. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  7. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  8. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  9. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  10. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies, market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. Electron capture and electron transport by fast ions penetrating solids: An open quantum system approach with sources and sinks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seliger, Marek; Reinhold, Carlos O.; Minami, Tatsuya; Schultz, David R.; Pindzola, Michael S.; Yoshida, Shuhei; Burgdoerfer, Joachim; Lamour, Emily; Rozet, Jean-Pierre; Vernhet, Dominique

    2007-03-15

    We present a joint theoretical and experimental study of the time evolution of electronic states of highly charged hydrogenic ions formed by capture during transmission through solids as they undergo multiple collisions and radiative decay. For this transport problem we have developed an inhomogeneous nonunitary Lindblad master equation that allows for a description of open quantum systems with both sinks (electron loss) and source (capture) present. We apply this theoretical framework to study transient coherences created in electron capture by 13.6 MeV/amu Ar{sup 18+} ions transmitted through amorphous carbon foils and decoherence during subsequent interaction with the foil. In the limit of thin targets we can directly probe electron capture cross sections under single collision conditions, while for thicker targets we follow the partially coherent dynamics of the open quantum system in interaction with the solid as a function of interaction time. The calculated results are in close agreement with experimental data obtained at the LISE facility in GANIL. Photon intensities from excited argon ions were determined through high resolution x-ray spectroscopy in which individual fine structure components were resolved. Measurements were performed for a wide range of carbon foil thickness to study the time development of the excited state populations.

  12. Electron Capture and Electron Transport by Fast Ions Penetrating Solids: An open Quantum System Approach with Sources and Sinks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seliger, M.

    2007-03-01

    We present a joint theoretical and experimental study of the time evolution of electronic states of highly charged hydrogenic ions formed by capture during transmission through solids as they undergo multiple collisions and radiative decay. For this transport problem we have developed an inhomogeneous nonunitary Lindblad master equation that allows for a description of open quantum systems with both sinks (electron loss) and source (capture) present. We apply this theoretical framework to study transient coherences created in electron capture by 13.6 MeV/amu Ar18+ ions transmitted through amorphous carbon foils and decoherence during subsequent interaction with the foil. In the limit of thin targets we can directly probe electron capture cross sections under single collision conditions, while for thicker targets we follow the partially coherent dynamics of the open quantum system in interaction with the solid as a function of interaction time. The calculated results are in close agreement with experimental data obtained at the LISE facility in GANIL. Photon intensities from excited argon ions were determined through high resolution x-ray spectroscopy in which individual fine structure components were resolved. Measurements were performed for a wide range of carbon foil thickness to study the time development of the excited state populations.

  13. Method and system for determining depth distribution of radiation-emitting material located in a source medium and radiation detector system for use therein

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benke, Roland R.; Kearfott, Kimberlee J.; McGregor, Douglas S.

    2003-03-04

    A method, system and a radiation detector system for use therein are provided for determining the depth distribution of radiation-emitting material distributed in a source medium, such as a contaminated field, without the need to take samples, such as extensive soil samples, to determine the depth distribution. The system includes a portable detector assembly with an x-ray or gamma-ray detector having a detector axis for detecting the emitted radiation. The radiation may be naturally-emitted by the material, such as gamma-ray-emitting radionuclides, or emitted when the material is struck by other radiation. The assembly also includes a hollow collimator in which the detector is positioned. The collimator causes the emitted radiation to bend toward the detector as rays parallel to the detector axis of the detector. The collimator may be a hollow cylinder positioned so that its central axis is perpendicular to the upper surface of the large area source when positioned thereon. The collimator allows the detector to angularly sample the emitted radiation over many ranges of polar angles. This is done by forming the collimator as a single adjustable collimator or a set of collimator pieces having various possible configurations when connected together. In any one configuration, the collimator allows the detector to detect only the radiation emitted from a selected range of polar angles measured from the detector axis. Adjustment of the collimator or the detector therein enables the detector to detect radiation emitted from a different range of polar angles. The system further includes a signal processor for processing the signals from the detector wherein signals obtained from different ranges of polar angles are processed together to obtain a reconstruction of the radiation-emitting material as a function of depth, assuming, but not limited to, a spatially-uniform depth distribution of the material within each layer. The detector system includes detectors having

  14. Design of Isotope Heat Source for Automatic Modular Dispersal During Reentry, and Its Integration with Heat Exchangers of 6-kWe Dynamic Isotope Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schock, Alfred

    1989-01-01

    In late 1986 the Air Force Space Division (AF / SD) had expressed an interest in using a Dynamic Isotope Power System (DIPS) of approximately 6-kWe to power the Boost Surveillance and Tacking System (BSTS) satellites. In support of that objective, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested Fairchild Space Company to perform a conceptual design study of the DIPS heat source and of its integration with the dynamic power conversion system, with particular emphasis on system safety. This paper describes the results of that study. The study resulted in a design for a single heat source of ~30-kWt, employing the standard 250-W General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules which DOE had previously developed and safety-tested for Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTS's)

  15. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  16. Advanced Photon Source experimental beamline Safety Assessment Document: Addendum to the Advanced Photon Source Accelerator Systems Safety Assessment Document (APS-3.2.2.1.0)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    This Safety Assessment Document (SAD) addresses commissioning and operation of the experimental beamlines at the Advanced Photon Source (APS). Purpose of this document is to identify and describe the hazards associated with commissioning and operation of these beamlines and to document the measures taken to minimize these hazards and mitigate the hazard consequences. The potential hazards associated with the commissioning and operation of the APS facility have been identified and analyzed. Physical and administrative controls mitigate identified hazards. No hazard exists in this facility that has not been previously encountered and successfully mitigated in other accelerator and synchrotron radiation research facilities. This document is an updated version of the APS Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR). During the review of the PSAR in February 1990, the APS was determined to be a Low Hazard Facility. On June 14, 1993, the Acting Director of the Office of Energy Research endorsed the designation of the APS as a Low Hazard Facility, and this Safety Assessment Document supports that designation.

  17. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  19. Simulated Performance of Algorithms for the Localization of Radioactive Sources from a Position Sensitive Radiation Detecting System (COCAE)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Karafasoulis, K.; Zachariadou, K.; Seferlis, S.; Kaissas, I.; Potiriadis, C.; Lambropoulos, C.; Loukas, D.

    2011-12-13

    Simulation studies are presented regarding the performance of algorithms that localize point-like radioactive sources detected by a position sensitive portable radiation instrument (COCAE). The source direction is estimated by using the List Mode Maximum Likelihood Expectation Maximization (LM-ML-EM) imaging algorithm. Furthermore, the source-to-detector distance is evaluated by three different algorithms based on the photo-peak count information of each detecting layer, the quality of the reconstructed source image, and the triangulation method. These algorithms have been tested on a large number of simulated photons over a wide energy range (from 200 keV to 2 MeV) emitted by point-like radioactive sources located at different orientations and source-to-detector distances.

  20. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  1. Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P.; Bursik, M.; Dehn, J.; Jones, M.; Patra, A.; Pavolonis, M.; Pitman, E.B.; Singh, T.; Webley, P.

    2014-08-15

    Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

  2. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  3. Overview | Advanced Photon Source

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    APS Overview: Introduction APS Systems Map LINAC Booster Synchrotron Storage Ring Insertion Devices Experiment Hall LOMs & Beamlines Overview of the APS The Advanced Photon Source...

  4. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  5. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  6. System using a megawatt class millimeter wave source and a high-power rectenna to beam power to a suspended platform

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Caplan, Malcolm; Friedman, Herbert W.

    2005-07-19

    A system for beaming power to a high altitude platform is based upon a high power millimeter gyrotron source, optical transmission components, and a high-power receiving antenna (i.e., a rectenna) capable of rectifying received millimeter energy and converting such energy into useable electrical power.

  7. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  8. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  9. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  10. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  11. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  12. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  13. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  14. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  15. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  16. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  18. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  19. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  20. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  1. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  2. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  3. Technical and economic feasibility of the low energy geothermal sources in Europe. Appendices. Final report. Faisabilite technique et economique de la geothermie basse energie en Europe. Annexes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-01-01

    This is Part 2 of an earlier report and comprises 14 appendices of technical matter covering the determination of hydrogeological characteristics in a geothermal system, provisional technical programs for such things as drilling and well-tubing, influence of climatic data, heat exchangers and pumps, cost of production and injection pumps, transportation of geothermal water, examples of heat balances in industries such as the malting, brewing, dairy and tannery industries, and the utilization of a geothermal source in the mineral industry. Detailed reports are given for each of the systems already in existence in France. The present geothermal situation in Italy is reviewed together with projects and forecasts of use.

  4. OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

  5. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  6. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: ‱ Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. ‱ Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. ‱ A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. ‱ Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  8. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  9. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  10. DC source assemblies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Campbell, Jeremy B; Newson, Steve

    2013-02-26

    Embodiments of DC source assemblies of power inverter systems of the type suitable for deployment in a vehicle having an electrically grounded chassis are provided. An embodiment of a DC source assembly comprises a housing, a DC source disposed within the housing, a first terminal, and a second terminal. The DC source also comprises a first capacitor having a first electrode electrically coupled to the housing, and a second electrode electrically coupled to the first terminal. The DC source assembly further comprises a second capacitor having a first electrode electrically coupled to the housing, and a second electrode electrically coupled to the second terminal.

  11. Evaluation of two-stage system for neutron measurement aiming at increase in count rate at Japan Atomic Energy Agency-Fusion Neutronics Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shinohara, K. Ochiai, K.; Sukegawa, A.; Ishii, K.; Kitajima, S.; Baba, M.; Sasao, M.

    2014-11-15

    In order to increase the count rate capability of a neutron detection system as a whole, we propose a multi-stage neutron detection system. Experiments to test the effectiveness of this concept were carried out on Fusion Neutronics Source. Comparing four configurations of alignment, it was found that the influence of an anterior stage on a posterior stage was negligible for the pulse height distribution. The two-stage system using 25 mm thickness scintillator was about 1.65 times the count rate capability of a single detector system for d-D neutrons and was about 1.8 times the count rate capability for d-T neutrons. The results suggested that the concept of a multi-stage detection system will work in practice.

  12. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  13. Microfabricated diffusion source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Oborny, Michael C.; Frye-Mason, Gregory C.; Manginell, Ronald P.

    2008-07-15

    A microfabricated diffusion source to provide for a controlled diffusion rate of a vapor comprises a porous reservoir formed in a substrate that can be filled with a liquid, a headspace cavity for evaporation of the vapor therein, a diffusion channel to provide a controlled diffusion of the vapor, and an outlet to release the vapor into a gas stream. The microfabricated diffusion source can provide a calibration standard for a microanalytical system. The microanalytical system with an integral diffusion source can be fabricated with microelectromechanical systems technologies.

  14. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  15. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  16. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  17. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  18. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  19. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  20. Light Source

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    a Light Source Data and Analysis Framework at NERSC Jack Deslippe, Shane Canon, Eli Dart, Abdelilah Essiari, Alexander Hexemer, Dula Parkinson, Simon Patton, Craig Tull + Many More The ALS Data Needs September 21, 2010 - NIST (MD) Light source data volumes are growing many times faster than Moore's law. ● Light source luminosity ● Detector resolution & rep-rates ● Sample automation BES user facilities serve 10,000 scientists and engineers every year. Mostly composed of many small

  1. Comparison of 3D dose distributions for HDR {sup 192}Ir brachytherapy sources with normoxic polymer gel dosimetry and treatment planning system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Senkesen, Oznur; Tezcanli, Evrim; Buyuksarac, Bora; Ozbay, Ismail

    2014-10-01

    Radiation fluence changes caused by the dosimeter itself and poor spatial resolution may lead to lack of 3-dimensional (3D) information depending on the features of the dosimeter and quality assurance of dose distributions for high–dose rate (HDR) iridium-192 ({sup 192}Ir) brachytherapy sources is challenging and experimental dosimetry methods used for brachytherapy sources are limited. In this study, we investigated 3D dose distributions of {sup 192}Ir brachytherapy sources for irradiation with single and multiple dwell positions using a normoxic gel dosimeter and compared them with treatment planning system (TPS) calculations. For dose calibration purposes, 100-mL gel-containing vials were irradiated at predefined doses and then scanned in an magnetic resonance (MR) imaging unit. Gel phantoms prepared in 2 spherical glasses were irradiated with {sup 192}Ir for the calculated dwell positions, and MR scans of the phantoms were obtained. The images were analyzed with MATLAB software. Dose distributions and profiles derived with 1-mm resolution were compared with TPS calculations. Linearity was observed between the delivered dose and the reciprocal of the T2 relaxation time constant of the gel. The x-, y-, and z-axes were defined as the sagittal, coronal, and axial planes, respectively, the sagittal and axial planes were defined parallel to the long axis of the source while the coronal plane was defined horizontally to the long axis of the source. The differences between measured and calculated profile widths of 3-cm source length and point source for 70%, 50%, and 30% isodose lines were evaluated at 3 dose levels using 18 profiles of comparison. The calculations for 3-cm source length revealed a difference of > 3 mm in 1 coordinate at 50% profile width on the sagittal plane and 3 coordinates at 70% profile width and 2 coordinates at 50% and 30% profile widths on the axial plane. Calculations on the coronal plane for 3-cm source length showed > 3-mm difference in 1

  2. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  3. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  4. Ion source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Ehlers, Kenneth W.

    1984-01-01

    A magnetic filter for an ion source reduces the production of undesired ion species and improves the ion beam quality. High-energy ionizing electrons are confined by the magnetic filter to an ion source region, where the high-energy electrons ionize gas molecules. One embodiment of the magnetic filter uses permanent magnets oriented to establish a magnetic field transverse to the direction of travel of ions from the ion source region to the ion extraction region. In another embodiment, low energy 16 eV electrons are injected into the ion source to dissociate gas molecules and undesired ion species into desired ion species.

  5. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  6. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  7. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  8. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  9. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: â–ș We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. â–ș The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. â–ș At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. â–ș At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. â–ș At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  10. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  11. 500 MW X-Band RF System of a 0.25 GeV Electron LINAC for Advanced Compton Scattering Source Application

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chu, Tak Sum; Anderson, Scott; Barty, Christopher; Gibson, David; Hartemann, Fred; Marsh, Roark; Siders, Craig; Adolphsen, Chris; Jongewaard, Erik; Raubenheimer, Tor; Tantawi, Sami; Vlieks, Arnold; Wang, Juwen; /SLAC

    2012-07-03

    A Mono-Energetic Gamma-Ray (MEGa-Ray) Compton scattering light source is being developed at LLNL in collaboration with the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The electron beam for the Compton scattering interaction will be generated by a X-band RF gun and a X-band LINAC at the frequency of 11.424 GHz. High power RF in excess of 500 MW is needed to accelerate the electrons to energy of 250 MeV or greater for the interaction. Two high power klystron amplifiers, each capable of generating 50 MW, 1.5 msec pulses, will be the main high power RF sources for the system. These klystrons will be powered by state of the art solid-state high voltage modulators. A RF pulse compressor, similar to the SLED II pulse compressor, will compress the klystron output pulse with a power gain factor of five. For compactness consideration, we are looking at a folded waveguide setup. This will give us 500 MW at output of the compressor. The compressed pulse will then be distributed to the RF gun and to six traveling wave accelerator sections. Phase and amplitude control are located at the RF gun input and additional control points along the LINAC to allow for parameter control during operation. This high power RF system is being designed and constructed. In this paper, we will present the design, layout, and status of this RF system.

  12. 500 MW X-BAND RF SYSTEM OF A 0.25 GEV ELECTRON LINAC FOR ADVANCED COMPTON SCATTERING SOURCE APPLICATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chu, T S; Anderson, S G; Gibson, D J; Hartemann, F V; Marsh, R A; Siders, C; Barty, C P; Adolphsen, C; Jongewaard, E; Tantawi, S; Vlieks, A; Wang, J W; Raubenheimer, T

    2010-05-12

    A Mono-Energetic Gamma-Ray (MEGa-Ray) Compton scattering light source is being developed at LLNL in collaboration with SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The electron beam for the Compton scattering interaction will be generated by a X-band RF gun and a X-band LINAC at the frequency of 11.424 GHz. High power RF in excess of 500 MW is needed to accelerate the electrons to energy of 250 MeV or greater for the interaction. Two high power klystron amplifiers, each capable of generating 50 MW, 1.5 msec pulses, will be the main high power RF sources for the system. These klystrons will be powered by state of the art solid-state high voltage modulators. A RF pulse compressor, similar to the SLED II pulse compressor, will compress the klystron output pulse with a power gain factor of five. For compactness consideration, we are looking at a folded waveguide setup. This will give us 500 MW at output of the compressor. The compressed pulse will then be distributed to the RF gun and to six traveling wave accelerator sections. Phase and amplitude control are located at the RF gun input and additional control points along the LINAC to allow for parameter control during operation. This high power RF system is being designed and constructed. In this paper, we will present the design, layout, and status of this RF system.

  13. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 20 - The Smart Enterprise...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    all gives inefficient burn which costs more in fuel and emissions per kWh. Future Power Systems 20 The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Steve ...

  14. PROJECT PROFILE: Improving PV performance Estimates in the System...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This project will improve the forecasting of lifetime PV system performance as well as operations and maintenance costs by incorporating the Photovoltaic Reliability and ...

  15. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... exchange, premises controls and for configuring the new utility demand forecasting system. ... person thinks about hisher home energy costs in real time (or even at any time between ...

  16. ION SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Martina, E.F.

    1958-04-22

    An improved ion source particularly adapted to provide an intense beam of ions with minimum neutral molecule egress from the source is described. The ion source structure includes means for establishing an oscillating electron discharge, including an apertured cathode at one end of the discharge. The egress of ions from the source is in a pencil like beam. This desirable form of withdrawal of the ions from the plasma created by the discharge is achieved by shaping the field at the aperture of the cathode. A tubular insulator is extended into the plasma from the aperture and in cooperation with the electric fields at the cathode end of the discharge focuses the ions from the source,

  17. DropBot: An open-source digital microfluidic control system with precise control of electrostatic driving force and instantaneous drop velocity measurement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fobel, Ryan; Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research, 160 College St., Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E1 ; Fobel, Christian; Wheeler, Aaron R.; Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research, 160 College St., Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E1; Department of Chemistry, University of Toronto, 80 St. George St., Toronto, Ontario M5S 3H6

    2013-05-13

    We introduce DropBot: an open-source instrument for digital microfluidics (http://microfluidics.utoronto.ca/dropbot). DropBot features two key functionalities for digital microfluidics: (1) real-time monitoring of instantaneous drop velocity (which we propose is a proxy for resistive forces), and (2) application of constant electrostatic driving forces through compensation for amplifier-loading and device capacitance. We anticipate that this system will enhance insight into failure modes and lead to new strategies for improved device reliability, and will be useful for the growing number of users who are adopting digital microfluidics for automated, miniaturized laboratory operation.

  18. Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS), Executable Model and Source Model (version 4. 0) (for microcomputers). Model-Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-10-29

    The Integrated Air Pollution Control System (IAPCS) Cost Model is an IBM PC cost model that can be used to estimate the cost of installing SO2, NOx, and particulate matter control systems at coal-fired utility electric generating facilities. The model integrates various combinations of the following technologies: physical coal cleaning, coal switching, overfire air/low NOx burners, natural gas reburning, LIMB, ADVACATE, electrostatic precipitator, fabric filter, gas conditioning, wet lime or limestone FGD, lime spray drying/duct spray drying, dry sorbent injection, pressurized fluidized bed combustion, integrated gasification combined cycle, and pulverized coal burning boiler. The model generates capital, annualized, and unitized pollutant removal costs in either constant or current dollars for any year.

  19. Method and system for determining depth distribution of radiation-emitting material located in a source medium and radiation detector system for use therein

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benke, Roland R.; Kearfott, Kimberlee J.; McGregor, Douglas S.

    2004-04-27

    A radiation detector system includes detectors having different properties (sensitivity, energy resolution) which are combined so that excellent spectral information may be obtained along with good determinations of the radiation field as a function of position.

  20. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganic carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.

  1. A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; Link, Robert P.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

  2. NEUTRON SOURCES

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Richmond, J.L.; Wells, C.E.

    1963-01-15

    A neutron source is obtained without employing any separate beryllia receptacle, as was formerly required. The new method is safer and faster, and affords a source with both improved yield and symmetry of neutron emission. A Be container is used to hold and react with Pu. This container has a thin isolating layer that does not obstruct the desired Pu--Be reaction and obviates procedures previously employed to disassemble and remove a beryllia receptacle. (AEC)

  3. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  4. Ground Source Solutions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Kingdom Zip: NG22 9GW Sector: Buildings Product: UK-based installer of ground source energy systems to domestic and commercial buildings. References: Ground Source...

  5. Hydrogeologic Evaluation of a Ground-Source Cooling System at the BSF/CSF on the Battelle Campus: Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Vicky L.; Mackley, Rob D.; Waichler, Scott R.; Horner, Jacob A.; Moon, Thomas W.; Newcomer, Darrell R.; DeSmet, Darrell J.; Lindsey, K. A.; Porcello, J. J.

    2010-05-12

    This report documents both the field characterization activities and the numerical modeling effort at the BSF/CSF site to determine the viability of an open-loop ground source heat pump (GSHP). The primary purpose of the integrated field and modeling study was to determine far-field impacts related to a non-consumptive use water right for the well field containing four extraction and four injection wells. In the field, boreholes were logged and used to develop the geologic conceptual model. Hydraulic testing was performed to identify hydraulic properties and determine sustainable pumping rates. Estimates of the Ringold hydraulic conductivity (60-150 m/d) at the BSF/CSF site were consistent with the local and regional hydrogeology as well as estimates previously published by other investigators. Sustainable pumping rates at the extraction wells were variable (100 – 700 gpm), and confirmed field observations of aquifer heterogeneity. Field data were used to develop a numerical model of the site. Simulations assessed the potential of the well field to impact nearby contaminant plumes, neighboring water rights, and the thermal regime of nearby surface water bodies. Using steady-state flow scenarios in conjunction with particle tracking, a radius of influence of 400–600 m was identified around the well field. This distance was considerably shorter than the distance to the closest contaminant plume (~1.2 km northwest to the DOE Horn Rapids Landfill) and the nearest water right holder (~1.2 km southeast to the City of Richland Well Field). Results demonstrated that current trajectories for nearby contaminant plumes will not be impacted by the operation of the GSHP well field. The objective of the energy transport analysis was to identify potential thermal impacts to the Columbia River under likely operational scenarios for the BSF/CSF well field. Estimated pumping rates and injection temperatures were used to simulate heat transport for a range of hydraulic conductivity

  6. Experimental Component Characterization, Monte-Carlo-Based Image Generation and Source Reconstruction for the Neutron Imaging System of the National Ignition Facility

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barrera, C A; Moran, M J

    2007-08-21

    The Neutron Imaging System (NIS) is one of seven ignition target diagnostics under development for the National Ignition Facility. The NIS is required to record hot-spot (13-15 MeV) and downscattered (6-10 MeV) images with a resolution of 10 microns and a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 10 at the 20% contour. The NIS is a valuable diagnostic since the downscattered neutrons reveal the spatial distribution of the cold fuel during an ignition attempt, providing important information in the case of a failed implosion. The present study explores the parameter space of several line-of-sight (LOS) configurations that could serve as the basis for the final design. Six commercially available organic scintillators were experimentally characterized for their light emission decay profile and neutron sensitivity. The samples showed a long lived decay component that makes direct recording of a downscattered image impossible. The two best candidates for the NIS detector material are: EJ232 (BC422) plastic fibers or capillaries filled with EJ399B. A Monte Carlo-based end-to-end model of the NIS was developed to study the imaging capabilities of several LOS configurations and verify that the recovered sources meet the design requirements. The model includes accurate neutron source distributions, aperture geometries (square pinhole, triangular wedge, mini-penumbral, annular and penumbral), their point spread functions, and a pixelated scintillator detector. The modeling results show that a useful downscattered image can be obtained by recording the primary peak and the downscattered images, and then subtracting a decayed version of the former from the latter. The difference images need to be deconvolved in order to obtain accurate source distributions. The images are processed using a frequency-space modified-regularization algorithm and low-pass filtering. The resolution and SNR of these sources are quantified by using two surrogate sources. The simulations show that all LOS

  7. Advanced system demonstration for utilization of biomass as an energy source. Volume I. Scope and design criteria and project summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1980-10-01

    The information in this document is the result of an intensive engineering effort to demonstrate the feasibility of biomass-fueled boilers in cogeneration applications. This design package is based upon a specific site in the State of Maine. However, the design is generic in nature and could serve as a model for other biomass conversion facilities located anywhere biomass is abundant. The project's purpose and summary information are presented: the plant, its concept of operation; and other overall information are described. The capital cost estimate for the plant, and the basis upon which it was obtained are given; a schedule of key milestones and activities required to construct the plant and put it into operation is presented; and the general findings in areas that affect the viability of the project are discussed. The technical design, biomass study, environmental impact, commercialization, and economic factors are addressed. Each major plant area and the equipment and facilities that each includes are discussed in depth. Some overall plant requirements, including noise control, reliability, maintainability, and safety, are detailed. The results of each study relating to alternatives considered for optimizing plant operation parameters and specific system process schemes are briefly presented. All economic factors that affect the feasibility and viability of the biomass project are defined and evaluated.

  8. Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

  9. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  10. Neutron source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cason, J.L. Jr.; Shaw, C.B.

    1975-10-21

    A neutron source which is particularly useful for neutron radiography consists of a vessel containing a moderating media of relatively low moderating ratio, a flux trap including a moderating media of relatively high moderating ratio at the center of the vessel, a shell of depleted uranium dioxide surrounding the moderating media of relatively high moderating ratio, a plurality of guide tubes each containing a movable source of neutrons surrounding the flux trap, a neutron shield surrounding one part of each guide tube, and at least one collimator extending from the flux trap to the exterior of the neutron source. The shell of depleted uranium dioxide has a window provided with depleted uranium dioxide shutters for each collimator. Reflectors are provided above and below the flux trap and on the guide tubes away from the flux trap.

  11. ION SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Leland, W.T.

    1960-01-01

    The ion source described essentially eliminater the problem of deposits of nonconducting materials forming on parts of the ion source by certain corrosive gases. This problem is met by removing both filament and trap from the ion chamber, spacing them apart and outside the chamber end walls, placing a focusing cylinder about the filament tip to form a thin collimated electron stream, aligning the cylinder, slits in the walls, and trap so that the electron stream does not bombard any part in the source, and heating the trap, which is bombarded by electrons, to a temperature hotter than that in the ion chamber, so that the tendency to build up a deposit caused by electron bombardment is offset by the extra heating supplied only to the trap.

  12. NEUTRON SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Reardon, W.A.; Lennox, D.H.; Nobles, R.G.

    1959-01-13

    A neutron source of the antimony--beryllium type is presented. The source is comprised of a solid mass of beryllium having a cylindrical recess extending therein and a cylinder containing antimony-124 slidably disposed within the cylindrical recess. The antimony cylinder is encased in aluminum. A berylliunn plug is removably inserted in the open end of the cylindrical recess to completely enclose the antimony cylinder in bsryllium. The plug and antimony cylinder are each provided with a stud on their upper ends to facilitate handling remotely.

  13. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  14. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  15. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  16. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  18. Solar-powered electrodialysis. Part 2. Design of a solar-powered, electrodialysis system for desalting remote, brackish water sources. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundstrom, J.E.; Socha, M.M.; Lynch, J.D.

    1983-04-01

    The critical components in the design of a solar-powered, electrodialysis (SPED) plant have been evaluated and technology developed to combine ED equipment with a photovoltaic (PV) array. The plant design developed in Part II is simplified from the Part I design in three areas. First, the system uses a flat-panel PV aray rather than PV concentrators. Second, the system voltage is maintained at the voltage corresponding to the peak power output of the array which is essentially independent of the level of solar insolation. The third simplification is in the flow diagram for the plant where the number of pumps and variable flow valves has been reduced to two of each. The proposed system is expected to provide a reliable supply of fresh water from a brackish water source with minimum maintenance. In certain applications where grid power is unavailable and fuel costs exceed $.40 per liter, the solar-powered plant is expected to provide lower cost water today.

  19. Application of Spatial Data Modeling and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for Identification of Potential Siting Options for Various Electrical Generation Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Blevins, Brandon R; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Jochem, Warren C; Neish, Bradley S; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Rose, Amy N

    2012-05-01

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) initiated an internal National Electric Generation Siting Study, which is an ongoing multiphase study addressing several key questions related to our national electrical energy supply. This effort has led to the development of a tool, OR-SAGE (Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion), to support siting evaluations. The objective in developing OR-SAGE was to use industry-accepted approaches and/or develop appropriate criteria for screening sites and employ an array of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data sources at ORNL to identify candidate areas for a power generation technology application. The initial phase of the study examined nuclear power generation. These early nuclear phase results were shared with staff from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), which formed the genesis and support for an expansion of the work to several other power generation forms, including advanced coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS), solar, and compressed air energy storage (CAES). Wind generation was not included in this scope of work for EPRI. The OR-SAGE tool is essentially a dynamic visualization database. The results shown in this report represent a single static set of results using a specific set of input parameters. In this case, the GIS input parameters were optimized to support an economic study conducted by EPRI. A single set of individual results should not be construed as an ultimate energy solution, since US energy policy is very complex. However, the strength of the OR-SAGE tool is that numerous alternative scenarios can be quickly generated to provide additional insight into electrical generation or other GIS-based applications. The screening process divides the contiguous United States into 100 x 100 m (1-hectare) squares (cells), applying successive power generation-appropriate site selection and evaluation criteria (SSEC) to each cell. There are just under 700 million cells representing the

  20. SU-D-207-03: Development of 4D-CBCT Imaging System with Dual Source KV X-Ray Tubes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakamura, M; Ishihara, Y; Matsuo, Y; Ueki, N; Iizuka, Y; Mizowaki, T; Hiraoka, M

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The purposes of this work are to develop 4D-CBCT imaging system with orthogonal dual source kV X-ray tubes, and to determine the imaging doses from 4D-CBCT scans. Methods: Dual source kV X-ray tubes were used for the 4D-CBCT imaging. The maximum CBCT field of view was 200 mm in diameter and 150 mm in length, and the imaging parameters were 110 kV, 160 mA and 5 ms. The rotational angle was 105°, the rotational speed of the gantry was 1.5°/s, the gantry rotation time was 70 s, and the image acquisition interval was 0.3°. The observed amplitude of infrared marker motion during respiration was used to sort each image into eight respiratory phase bins. The EGSnrc/BEAMnrc and EGSnrc/DOSXYZnrc packages were used to simulate kV X-ray dose distributions of 4D-CBCT imaging. The kV X-ray dose distributions were calculated for 9 lung cancer patients based on the planning CT images with dose calculation grid size of 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 mm. The dose covering a 2-cc volume of skin (D2cc), defined as the inner 5 mm of the skin surface with the exception of bone structure, was assessed. Results: A moving object was well identified on 4D-CBCT images in a phantom study. Given a gantry rotational angle of 105° and the configuration of kV X-ray imaging subsystems, both kV X-ray fields overlapped at a part of skin surface. The D2cc for the 4D-CBCT scans was in the range 73.8–105.4 mGy. Linear correlation coefficient between the 1000 minus averaged SSD during CBCT scanning and D2cc was −0.65 (with a slope of −0.17) for the 4D-CBCT scans. Conclusion: We have developed 4D-CBCT imaging system with dual source kV X-ray tubes. The total imaging dose with 4D-CBCT scans was up to 105.4 mGy.

  1. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  2. ION SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Brobeck, W.M.

    1959-04-14

    This patent deals with calutrons and more particularly to an arrangement therein whereby charged bottles in a calutron source unit may be replaced without admitting atmospheric air to the calutron vacuum chamber. As described, an ion unit is disposed within a vacuum tank and has a reservoir open toward a wall of the tank. A spike projects from thc source into the reservoir. When a charge bottle is placed in the reservoir, the spike breaks a frangible seal on the bottle. After the contents of the bottle are expended the bottle may be withdrawn and replaced with another charge bottle by a varuum lock arrangement in conjunction with an arm for manipulating the bottle.

  3. ION SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bell, W.A. Jr.; Love, L.O.; Prater, W.K.

    1958-01-28

    An ion source is presented capable of producing ions of elements which vaporize only at exceedingly high temperatures, i.e.,--1500 degrees to 3000 deg C. The ion source utilizes beams of electrons focused into a first chamber housing the material to be ionized to heat the material and thereby cause it to vaporize. An adjacent second chamber receives the vaporized material through an interconnecting passage, and ionization of the vaporized material occurs in this chamber. The ionization action is produced by an arc discharge sustained between a second clectron emitting filament and the walls of the chamber which are at different potentials. The resultant ionized material egresses from a passageway in the second chamber. Using this device, materials which in the past could not be processed in mass spectometers may be satisfactorily ionized for such applications.

  4. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  5. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  6. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  7. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The international area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.

  10. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Project objective: Create a new ...

  11. Backup power sources for DOE facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    This standard establishes fundamental requirements and guidance for backup power sources at DOE facilities. Purpose is to document good engineering practices for installation, testing, and maintenance of these backup power sources, which also covers emergency power sources. Examples are those which supply power to nuclear safety systems, radiation monitors and alarms, fire protection systems, security systems, and emergency lighting.

  12. HIGH VOLTAGE ION SOURCE

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Luce, J.S.

    1960-04-19

    A device is described for providing a source of molecular ions having a large output current and with an accelerated energy of the order of 600 kv. Ions are produced in an ion source which is provided with a water-cooled source grid of metal to effect maximum recombination of atomic ions to molecular ions. A very high accelerating voltage is applied to withdraw and accelerate the molecular ions from the source, and means are provided for dumping the excess electrons at the lowest possible potentials. An accelerating grid is placed adjacent to the source grid and a slotted, grounded accelerating electrode is placed adjacent to the accelerating grid. A potential of about 35 kv is maintained between the source grid and accelerating grid, and a potential of about 600 kv is maintained between the accelerating grid and accelerating electrode. In order to keep at a minimum the large number of oscillating electrons which are created when such high voltages are employed in the vicinity of a strong magnetic field, a plurality of high voltage cascaded shields are employed with a conventional electron dumping system being employed between each shield so as to dump the electrons at the lowest possible potential rather than at 600 kv.

  13. Intense fusion neutron sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuteev, B. V.; Goncharov, P. R.; Sergeev, V. Yu.; Khripunov, V. I.

    2010-04-15

    The review describes physical principles underlying efficient production of free neutrons, up-to-date possibilities and prospects of creating fission and fusion neutron sources with intensities of 10{sup 15}-10{sup 21} neutrons/s, and schemes of production and application of neutrons in fusion-fission hybrid systems. The physical processes and parameters of high-temperature plasmas are considered at which optimal conditions for producing the largest number of fusion neutrons in systems with magnetic and inertial plasma confinement are achieved. The proposed plasma methods for neutron production are compared with other methods based on fusion reactions in nonplasma media, fission reactions, spallation, and muon catalysis. At present, intense neutron fluxes are mainly used in nanotechnology, biotechnology, material science, and military and fundamental research. In the near future (10-20 years), it will be possible to apply high-power neutron sources in fusion-fission hybrid systems for producing hydrogen, electric power, and technological heat, as well as for manufacturing synthetic nuclear fuel and closing the nuclear fuel cycle. Neutron sources with intensities approaching 10{sup 20} neutrons/s may radically change the structure of power industry and considerably influence the fundamental and applied science and innovation technologies. Along with utilizing the energy produced in fusion reactions, the achievement of such high neutron intensities may stimulate wide application of subcritical fast nuclear reactors controlled by neutron sources. Superpower neutron sources will allow one to solve many problems of neutron diagnostics, monitor nano-and biological objects, and carry out radiation testing and modification of volumetric properties of materials at the industrial level. Such sources will considerably (up to 100 times) improve the accuracy of neutron physics experiments and will provide a better understanding of the structure of matter, including that of the

  14. Present status and forecast of T&D facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ko, In-Suk

    1994-12-31

    Before the end of the 1970s, because of our marvelous economic growth and industrial development we had made our best efforts to develop more power sources. But from the 1980s, KEPCO has invested for T&D facility of high quality and improved system reliability. The main considerations for T&D expansion are positive investment to improve facilities of the electric company, improvement of the quality of electrical equipment during manufacturing, and bettering the field construction of power facilities. In order to achieve the ultimate goal of supplying high quality electricity, we will try to improve cooperation between our domestic industries, and research institutes, and increase the exchange of international technology.

  15. LONG-TERM SPECTRAL VARIATIONS OF ULTRALUMINOUS X-RAY SOURCES IN THE INTERACTING GALAXY SYSTEMS M 51 AND NGC 4490/85

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshida, Tessei; Ebisawa, Ken; Tsujimoto, Masahiro [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Matsushita, Kyoko [Department of Physics, Tokyo University of Science, 1-3 Kagurazaka, Shinjuku, Tokyo 162-8601 (Japan); Kawaguchi, Toshihiro, E-mail: yoshida.tessei@ac.jaxa.j [Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577 (Japan)

    2010-10-10

    Variable ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs), which are considered to be black hole binaries (BHBs), are known to show state transitions similar to Galactic BHBs. However, the relation between the ULX states and the Galactic BHB states is still unclear, primarily due to the less well-understood behaviors of ULXs in contrast to the Galactic BHBs. Here, we report a statistical X-ray spectral study of 34 energy spectra from seven bright ULXs in the interacting galaxy systems M 51 and NGC 4490/85, using archive data from multiple Chandra and XMM-Newton observations spanning a few years. In order to compare them with Galactic BHB states, we applied representative spectral models of BHBs-a power-law (PL), a multi-color disk blackbody (MCD), and a slim-disk model-to all the ULX spectra. We found a hint of a bimodal structure in the luminosity distribution of the samples, suggesting that ULXs have two states that respectively have typical luminosities of (3-6)x 10{sup 39} and (1.5-3)x 10{sup 39} ergs s{sup -1}. Most spectra in the brighter state are explained by the MCD or the slim-disk model, whereas those in the fainter state are explained by the PL model. In particular, the slim-disk model successfully explains the observed spectral variations of NGC 4490/85 ULX-6 and ULX-8 by changes of the mass accretion rate to a black hole of an estimated mass of <40 M{sub sun}. From the best-fit model parameters of each state, we speculate that the brighter state in these two ULXs corresponds to the brightest state of Galactic BHBs, which is often called the 'apparently standard state'. The fainter state of the ULXs has a PL-shaped spectrum, but the photon index range is much wider than that seen in any single state of Galactic BHBs. We thus speculate that it is a state unique to ULXs. Some sources show much fainter and steeper spectra than the faint state, which we identified as yet another state.

  16. Radiation source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thode, Lester E.

    1981-01-01

    A device and method for relativistic electron beam heating of a high-density plasma in a small localized region. A relativistic electron beam generator or accelerator produces a high-voltage electron beam which propagates along a vacuum drift tube and is modulated to initiate electron bunching within the beam. The beam is then directed through a low-density gas chamber which provides isolation between the vacuum modulator and the relativistic electron beam target. The relativistic beam is then applied to a high-density target plasma which typically comprises DT, DD, or similar thermonuclear gas at a density of 10.sup.17 to 10.sup.20 electrons per cubic centimeter. The target gas is ionized prior to application of the relativistic electron beam by means of a laser or other preionization source to form a plasma. Utilizing a relativistic electron beam with an individual particle energy exceeding 3 MeV, classical scattering by relativistic electrons passing through isolation foils is negligible. As a result, relativistic streaming instabilities are initiated within the high-density target plasma causing the relativistic electron beam to efficiently deposit its energy into a small localized region of the high-density plasma target.

  17. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  18. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  19. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  20. Detecting fission from special nuclear material sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rowland, Mark S.; Snyderman, Neal J.

    2012-06-05

    A neutron detector system for discriminating fissile material from non-fissile material wherein a digital data acquisition unit collects data at high rate, and in real-time processes large volumes of data directly into information that a first responder can use to discriminate materials. The system comprises counting neutrons from the unknown source and detecting excess grouped neutrons to identify fission in the unknown source. The system includes a graphing component that displays the plot of the neutron distribution from the unknown source over a Poisson distribution and a plot of neutrons due to background or environmental sources. The system further includes a known neutron source placed in proximity to the unknown source to actively interrogate the unknown source in order to accentuate differences in neutron emission from the unknown source from Poisson distributions and/or environmental sources.

  1. Studies and optimization of Pohang Light Source-II superconducting radio frequency system at stable top-up operation with beam current of 400 mA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joo, Youngdo Yu, Inha; Park, Insoo; Chun, Myunghwan; Lee, Byung-Joon; Hwang, Ilmoon; Ha, Taekyun; Shin, Seunghwan; Sohn, Younguk

    2014-12-21

    After three years of upgrading work, the Pohang Light Source-II (PLS-II) is now successfully operating. The final quantitative goal of PLS-II is a top-up user-service operation with beam current of 400 mA to be completed by the end of 2014. During the beam store test up to 400 mA in the storage ring (SR), it was observed that the vacuum pressure around the radio frequency (RF) window of the superconducting cavity rapidly increases over the interlock level limiting the availability of the maximum beam current storing. Although available beam current is enhanced by setting a higher RF accelerating voltage, it is better to keep the RF accelerating voltage as low as possible in the long time top-up operation. We investigated the cause of the window vacuum pressure increment by studying the changes in the electric field distribution at the superconducting cavity and waveguide according to the beam current. In our simulation, an equivalent physical modeling was developed using a finite-difference time-domain code. The simulation revealed that the electric field amplitude at the RF window is exponentially increased as the beam current increases, thus this high electric field amplitude causes a RF breakdown at the RF window, which comes with the rapid increase of window vacuum pressure. The RF accelerating voltage of PLS-II RF system was set to 4.95 MV, which was estimated using the maximum available beam current that works as a function of RF voltage, and the top-up operation test with the beam current of 400 mA was successfully carried out.

  2. Current-carrying element based on second-generation high-temperature superconductor for the magnet system of a fusion neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Novikov, M. S. Ivanov, D. P. E-mail: denis.ivanov30@mail.ru; Novikov, S. I. Shuvaev, S. A. E-mail: sergey.shuvaev@phystech.edu

    2015-12-15

    Application of current-carrying elements (CCEs) made of second-generation high-temperature superconductor (2G HTS) in magnet systems of a fusion neutron source (FNS) and other fusion devices will allow their magnetic field and thermodynamic stability to be increased substantially in comparison with those of low-temperature superconductor (LTS) magnets. For a toroidal magnet of the FNS, a design of a helical (partially transposed) CCE made of 2G HTS is under development with forced-flow cooling by helium gas, a current of 20–30 kA, an operating temperature of 10–20 K, and a magnetic field on the winding of 12–15 T (prospectively ∌20 T). Short-sized samples of the helical flexible heavy-current CCE are being fabricated and investigated; a pilot-line unit for production of long-sized CCE pieces is under construction. The applied fabrication technique allows the CCE to be produced which combines a high operating current, thermal and mechanical stability, manufacturability, and low losses in the alternating modes. The possibility of fabricating the CCE with the outer dimensions and values of the operating parameter required for the FNS (and with a significant margin) using already available serial 2G HTS tapes is substantiated. The maximum field of toroidal magnets with CCEs made of 2G HTS will be limited only by mechanical properties of the magnet’s casing and structure, while the thermal stability will be approximately two orders of magnitude higher than that of toroidal magnets with LTS-based CCEs. The helical CCE made of 2G HTS is very promising for fusion and hybrid electric power plants, and its design and technologies of production, as well as the prototype coils made of it for the FNS and other tokamaks, are worth developing now.

  3. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  4. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  5. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  6. Evaluated teletherapy source library

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cox, Lawrence J.; Schach Von Wittenau, Alexis E.

    2000-01-01

    The Evaluated Teletherapy Source Library (ETSL) is a system of hardware and software that provides for maintenance of a library of useful phase space descriptions (PSDs) of teletherapy sources used in radiation therapy for cancer treatment. The PSDs are designed to be used by PEREGRINE, the all-particle Monte Carlo dose calculation system. ETSL also stores other relevant information such as monitor unit factors (MUFs) for use with the PSDs, results of PEREGRINE calculations using the PSDs, clinical calibration measurements, and geometry descriptions sufficient for calculational purposes. Not all of this information is directly needed by PEREGRINE. It also is capable of acting as a repository for the Monte Carlo simulation history files from which the generic PSDs are derived.

  7. Calibrated vapor generator source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Davies, John P.; Larson, Ronald A.; Goodrich, Lorenzo D.; Hall, Harold J.; Stoddard, Billy D.; Davis, Sean G.; Kaser, Timothy G.; Conrad, Frank J.

    1995-01-01

    A portable vapor generator is disclosed that can provide a controlled source of chemical vapors, such as, narcotic or explosive vapors. This source can be used to test and calibrate various types of vapor detection systems by providing a known amount of vapors to the system. The vapor generator is calibrated using a reference ion mobility spectrometer. A method of providing this vapor is described, as follows: explosive or narcotic is deposited on quartz wool, placed in a chamber that can be heated or cooled (depending on the vapor pressure of the material) to control the concentration of vapors in the reservoir. A controlled flow of air is pulsed over the quartz wool releasing a preset quantity of vapors at the outlet.

  8. Calibrated vapor generator source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Davies, J.P.; Larson, R.A.; Goodrich, L.D.; Hall, H.J.; Stoddard, B.D.; Davis, S.G.; Kaser, T.G.; Conrad, F.J.

    1995-09-26

    A portable vapor generator is disclosed that can provide a controlled source of chemical vapors, such as, narcotic or explosive vapors. This source can be used to test and calibrate various types of vapor detection systems by providing a known amount of vapors to the system. The vapor generator is calibrated using a reference ion mobility spectrometer. A method of providing this vapor is described, as follows: explosive or narcotic is deposited on quartz wool, placed in a chamber that can be heated or cooled (depending on the vapor pressure of the material) to control the concentration of vapors in the reservoir. A controlled flow of air is pulsed over the quartz wool releasing a preset quantity of vapors at the outlet. 10 figs.

  9. ARM - Sources of Atmospheric Carbon

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Atmospheric carbon represented a steady state system, where influx equaled outflow, before the Industrial Revolution. Currently, it is no longer a steady state system because the

  10. Contaminant Sources are Known

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sources are Known Historical contaminant sources from liquid discharges and solid waste management units are known. August 1, 2013 Contaminant source map LANL contaminant...

  11. Infrared source test

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ott, L.

    1994-11-15

    The purpose of the Infrared Source Test (IRST) is to demonstrate the ability to track a ground target with an infrared sensor from an airplane. The system is being developed within the Advance Technology Program`s Theater Missile Defense/Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) section. The IRST payload consists of an Amber Radiance 1 infrared camera system, a computer, a gimbaled mirror, and a hard disk. The processor is a custom R3000 CPU board made by Risq Modular Systems, Inc. for LLNL. The board has ethernet, SCSI, parallel I/O, and serial ports, a DMA channel, a video (frame buffer) interface, and eight MBytes of main memory. The real-time operating system VxWorks has been ported to the processor. The application code is written in C on a host SUN 4 UNIX workstation. The IRST is the result of a combined effort by physicists, electrical and mechanical engineers, and computer scientists.

  12. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  13. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational

  14. Development of an Air-Source Heat Pump Integrated with a Water Heating / Dehumidification Module

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rice, C Keith; Uselton, Robert B.; Shen, Bo; Baxter, Van D; Shrestha, Som S

    2014-01-01

    A residential-sized dual air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) concept is under development in partnership between ORNL and a manufacturer. The concept design consists of a two-stage air-source heat pump (ASHP) coupled on the air distribution side with a separate novel water heating/dehumidification (WH/DH) module. The motivation for this unusual equipment combination is the forecast trend for home sensible loads to be reduced more than latent loads. Integration of water heating with a space dehumidification cycle addresses humidity control while performing double-duty. This approach can be applied to retrofit/upgrade applications as well as new construction. A WH/DH module capable of ~1.47 L/h water removal and ~2 kW water heating capacity was assembled by the manufacturer. A heat pump system model was used to guide the controls design; lab testing was conducted and used to calibrate the models. Performance maps were generated and used in a TRNSYS sub-hourly simulation to predict annual performance in a well-insulated house. Annual HVAC/WH energy savings of ~35% are predicted in cold and hot-humid U.S. climates compared to a minimum efficiency baseline.

  15. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  16. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  17. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  18. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  19. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  20. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  1. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  2. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  3. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  4. Finding of No Significant Impact and Final Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Testing and Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    N /A

    2002-08-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy (the Department) has completed an Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of the Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Test. Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site. Based on the analysis in the environmental assessment, the Department has determined that the proposed action, the relocation of the Department's heat source and radioisotope power system operations, does not constitute a major Federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment within the meaning of the ''National Environmental Policy Act'' of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement is not required, and the Department is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI).

  5. Open-Source GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vatsavai, Raju; Burk, Thomas E; Lime, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The components making up an Open Source GIS are explained in this chapter. A map server (Sect. 30.1) can broadly be defined as a software platform for dynamically generating spatially referenced digital map products. The University of Minnesota MapServer (UMN Map Server) is one such system. Its basic features are visualization, overlay, and query. Section 30.2 names and explains many of the geospatial open source libraries, such as GDAL and OGR. The other libraries are FDO, JTS, GEOS, JCS, MetaCRS, and GPSBabel. The application examples include derived GIS-software and data format conversions. Quantum GIS, its origin and its applications explained in detail in Sect. 30.3. The features include a rich GUI, attribute tables, vector symbols, labeling, editing functions, projections, georeferencing, GPS support, analysis, and Web Map Server functionality. Future developments will address mobile applications, 3-D, and multithreading. The origins of PostgreSQL are outlined and PostGIS discussed in detail in Sect. 30.4. It extends PostgreSQL by implementing the Simple Feature standard. Section 30.5 details the most important open source licenses such as the GPL, the LGPL, the MIT License, and the BSD License, as well as the role of the Creative Commons.

  6. Contaminant Sources are Known

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Contaminant Sources are Known Contaminant Sources are Known Historical contaminant sources from liquid discharges and solid waste management units are known. August 1, 2013 Contaminant source map LANL contaminant source map RELATED IMAGES http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3789/9631743884_4caeb970f9_t.jpg Enlarge

  7. Primary ion sources for EBIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keller, R.

    2001-03-21

    This paper gives an introduction into the topic of primary ion sources that can be used to feed ions of normally solid elements into EBIS devices. Starting with a set of typical requirements for primary ion sources, some major types of ion generators are discussed first, with emphasis on their working principles rather than trying to give a fully representative listing of used and proposed generators. Beam-transport issues between primary ion source and EBIS are then examined, and generic characteristics of suitable beam-formation and transport systems are explained.

  8. Feasibility of CO2 Capture from Mobile Sources | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    CO2 Capture from Mobile Sources Feasibility of CO2 Capture from Mobile Sources Presents integrated system for post-combustion CO2 capture from mobile sources PDF icon ...

  9. Light-Source Facilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Safety Light Source Facilities America ALS - Advanced Light Source, USA APS - Advanced Photon Source, USA CAMD - Center for Advanced Microstructures & Devices, USA CHESS - Cornell High Energy Synchrotron Source, USA CLS - Canadian Light Source, Canada CTST - UCSB Center for Terahertz Science and Technology, USA DFELL - Duke Free Electron Laser Laboratory, USA Jlab - Jefferson Lab, USA LCLS - Linear Coherent Light Source, USA LNLS - Laboratorio Nacional de Luz Sincrotron, Brazil NSLS -

  10. Electrolytes for power sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Doddapaneni, Narayan; Ingersoll, David

    1995-01-01

    Electrolytes for power sources, particularly alkaline and acidic power sources, comprising benzene polysulfonic acids and benzene polyphosphonic acids or salts of such acids.

  11. Electrolytes for power sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Doddapaneni, N.; Ingersoll, D.

    1995-01-03

    Electrolytes are disclosed for power sources, particularly alkaline and acidic power sources, comprising benzene polysulfonic acids and benzene polyphosphonic acids or salts of such acids. 7 figures.

  12. Source Selection Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    source selection in accordance with Part 15 of the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR). ... CERTIFICATIONS Although there is no regulation requiring each Source Evaluation Board ...

  13. Laser-Compton Light Source Technology

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    mega ray Laser-Compton Light Source Technology Laser-Compton light source technology enables production of mono-energetic gamma rays and x rays. In the gamma-ray regime, these sources enable new, isotope-specific nuclear materials detection systems and photon-based study of nuclear processes (nuclear photonics). Laser-Compton light sources and related nuclear missions concepts were conceived of and realized over the course of the last decade at LLNL. Created by Compton scattering short-duration

  14. ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Company Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator...

  15. Bases for solid waste volume estimates for tank waste remediation system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reddick, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-01

    This document presents the background and basis for the Tank Waste Remediation System forecast for solid waste submitted in June 1996. The forecast was generated for single-shell tank and double-shell tank activities including operations through retrieval and disposal of chemical tank waste.

  16. Systems Integration | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration Systems Integration Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Hawaii DREAMS of New Solar Technologies Read more Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Plug and Play Solar PV for American Homes Read more Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Modal, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Read more High PV Penetration with Energy Storage in Flagstaff, AZ High PV Penetration with Energy Storage

  17. Ground Source Heat Pumps | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    efficient when cooling your home. Not only does this save energy and money, it reduces air pollution. GSHP System Ground source heat pump systems consist of three parts: the...

  18. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng (Knoxville, TN); Lai, Jih-Sheng (Blacksburg, VA)

    2002-01-01

    A multilevel cascade voltage source inverter having separate DC sources is described herein. This inverter is applicable to high voltage, high power applications such as flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) including static VAR generation (SVG), power line conditioning, series compensation, phase shifting and voltage balancing and fuel cell and photovoltaic utility interface systems. The M-level inverter consists of at least one phase wherein each phase has a plurality of full bridge inverters equipped with an independent DC source. This inverter develops a near sinusoidal approximation voltage waveform with only one switching per cycle as the number of levels, M, is increased. The inverter may have either single-phase or multi-phase embodiments connected in either wye or delta configurations.

  19. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with separate DC sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-06-24

    A multilevel cascade voltage source inverter having separate DC sources is described herein. This inverter is applicable to high voltage, high power applications such as flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) including static VAR generation (SVG), power line conditioning, series compensation, phase shifting and voltage balancing and fuel cell and photovoltaic utility interface systems. The M-level inverter consists of at least one phase wherein each phase has a plurality of full bridge inverters equipped with an independent DC source. This inverter develops a near sinusoidal approximation voltage waveform with only one switching per cycle as the number of levels, M, is increased. The inverter may have either single-phase or multi-phase embodiments connected in either wye or delta configurations. 15 figs.

  20. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng; Lai, Jih-Sheng

    2001-04-03

    A multilevel cascade voltage source inverter having separate DC sources is described herein. This inverter is applicable to high voltage, high power applications such as flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) including static VAR generation (SVG), power line conditioning, series compensation, phase shifting and voltage balancing and fuel cell and photovoltaic utility interface systems. The M-level inverter consists of at least one phase wherein each phase has a plurality of full bridge inverters equipped with an independent DC source. This inverter develops a near sinusoidal approximation voltage waveform with only one switching per cycle as the number of levels, M, is increased. The inverter may have either single-phase or multi-phase embodiments connected in either wye or delta configurations.

  1. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng; Lai, Jih-Sheng

    1997-01-01

    A multilevel cascade voltage source inverter having separate DC sources is described herein. This inverter is applicable to high voltage, high power applications such as flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) including static VAR generation (SVG), power line conditioning, series compensation, phase shifting and voltage balancing and fuel cell and photovoltaic utility interface systems. The M-level inverter consists of at least one phase wherein each phase has a plurality of full bridge inverters equipped with an independent DC source. This inverter develops a near sinusoidal approximation voltage waveform with only one switching per cycle as the number of levels, M, is increased. The inverter may have either single-phase or multi-phase embodiments connected in either wye or delta configurations.

  2. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  3. Radiation source with shaped emission

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kubiak, Glenn D.; Sweatt, William C.

    2003-05-13

    Employing a source of radiation, such as an electric discharge source, that is equipped with a capillary region configured into some predetermined shape, such as an arc or slit, can significantly improve the amount of flux delivered to the lithographic wafers while maintaining high efficiency. The source is particularly suited for photolithography systems that employs a ringfield camera. The invention permits the condenser which delivers critical illumination to the reticle to be simplified from five or more reflective elements to a total of three or four reflective elements thereby increasing condenser efficiency. It maximizes the flux delivered and maintains a high coupling efficiency. This architecture couples EUV radiation from the discharge source into a ring field lithography camera.

  4. Evaluation of Analytical and Numerical Techniques for Defining the Radius of Influence for an Open-Loop Ground Source Heat Pump System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Vicky L.; Mackley, Rob D.; Waichler, Scott R.; Horner, Jacob A.

    2013-09-26

    In an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GHP) system, groundwater is extracted, run through a heat exchanger, and injected back into the ground, resulting in no mass balance changes to the flow system. Although the groundwater use is non-consumptive, the withdrawal and injection of groundwater may cause negative hydraulic and thermal impacts to the flow system. Because GHP is a relatively new technology and regulatory guidelines for determining environmental impacts for GHPs may not exist, consumptive use metrics may need to be used for permit applications. For consumptive use permits, a radius of influence is often used, which is defined as the radius beyond which hydraulic impacts to the system are considered negligible. In this paper, the hydraulic radius of influence concept was examined using analytical and numerical methods for a non-consumptive GHP system in southeastern Washington State. At this location, the primary hydraulic concerns were impacts to nearby contaminant plumes and a water supply well field. The results of this study showed that the analytical techniques with idealized radial flow were generally unsuited because they over predicted the influence of the well system. The numerical techniques yielded more reasonable results because they could account for aquifer heterogeneities and flow boundaries. In particular, the use of a capture zone analysis was identified as the best method for determining potential changes in current contaminant plume trajectories. The capture zone analysis is a more quantitative and reliable tool for determining the radius of influence with a greater accuracy and better insight for a non-consumptive GHP assessment.

  5. The FELICIA bulletin board system and the IRBIS anonymous FTP server: Computer security information sources for the DOE community. CIAC-2302

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orvis, W.J.

    1993-11-03

    The Computer Incident Advisory Capability (CIAC) operates two information servers for the DOE community, FELICIA (formerly FELIX) and IRBIS. FELICIA is a computer Bulletin Board System (BBS) that can be accessed by telephone with a modem. IRBIS is an anonymous ftp server that can be accessed on the Internet. Both of these servers contain all of the publicly available CIAC, CERT, NIST, and DDN bulletins, virus descriptions, the VIRUS-L moderated virus bulletin board, copies of public domain and shareware virus- detection/protection software, and copies of useful public domain and shareware utility programs. This guide describes how to connect these systems and obtain files from them.

  6. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal

  7. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources ...

  8. Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Multilevel cascade voltage source inverter with seperate DC sources A ...

  9. Characterization of the LiSi/CsBr-LiBr-KBr/FeS(2) System for Potential Use as a Geothermal Borehole Power Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    GUIDOTTI, RONALD A.; REINHARDT, FREDERICK W.

    1999-10-18

    We are continuing to study the suitability of modified thermal-battery technology as a potential power source for geothermal borehole applications. Previous work focused on the LiSi/FeS{sub 2} couple over a temperature range of 350 C to 400 C with the LiBr-KBr-LiF eutectic, which melts at 324.5 C. In this work, the discharge processes that take place in LiSi/CsBr-LiBr-KBr eutectic/FeS{sub 2} thermal cells were studied at temperatures between 250 C and 400 C using pelletized cells with immobilized electrolyte. The CsBr-LiBr-KBr eutectic was selected because of its lower melting point (228.5 C). Incorporation of a quasi-reference electrode allowed the determination of the relative contribution of each electrode to the overall cell polarization. The results of single-cell tests and limited battery tests are presented, along with preliminary data for battery stacks tested in a simulated geothermal borehole environment.

  10. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  11. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  12. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  13. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  14. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  15. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  16. Design of a californium source-driven measurement system for accountability of material recovered from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment charcoal bed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bentzinger, D.L.; Perez, R.B.; Mattingly, J.K.; Valentine, T.E.; Mihalczo, J.T.

    1998-05-01

    The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment Facility (MSRE) operated from 1965 to 1969. The fuel was a molten salt that flowed through the reactor core which consisted of uranium tetrafluoride with molten lithium and beryllium salt used as the coolant. In 1968 the fuel was switched from {sup 235}U to {sup 233}U. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment was canceled in 1969 at which time approximately 4800 kg of salt was transferred to the fuel drain tanks. There was about 36.3 kg of uranium, 675 grams of plutonium and various fission products present in the fuel salt. The salt was allowed to solidify in the fuel drain tanks. The salt was heated on a yearly basis to recombine the fluorine gas with the uranium salt mixture. In March 1994, a gas sample was taken from the off gas system that indicated {sup 233}U had migrated from the fuel drain tank system to the off gas system. It was found that approximately 2.6 kg of uranium had migrated to the Auxiliary Charcoal Bed (ACB). The ACB is located in the concrete-lined charcoal bed cell which is below ground level located outside the MSRE building. Therefore, there was a concern for the potential of a nuclear criticality accident, although water would have to leak into the chamber for a criticality accident to occur. Unstable carbon/fluorine compounds were also formed when the fluorine reacted with the charcoal in the charcoal bed. The purpose of the proposed measurement system was to perform an accountability measurement to determine the fissile mass of {sup 233}U in the primary vessel. The contents of the primary containment assembly will then be transferred to three smaller containers for long term storage. Calculations were performed using MCNP-DSP to determine the configuration of the measurement system. The information obtained from the time signatures can then be compared to the measurement data to determine the amount of {sup 233}U present in the primary containment assembly.

  17. How regulators should use natural gas price forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Costello, Ken

    2010-08-15

    Natural gas prices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Natural gas prices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High natural gas prices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make natural gas generation the most economical. (author)

  18. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  19. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... renewable energy systems Nexus of natural gas and renewable energy Modeling of electric sector regulation and policy in capacity expansion and dispatch models, e.g. the ...

  20. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds ...

  1. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Research Org: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US) Sponsoring Org: USDOE Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: Power system ...

  2. FORSITE, a multiple-project management system: overview and general description

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Entingh, D.J.; Bernstein, A.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Gould, A.V.

    1982-10-01

    The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based multiproject monitoring, scheduling, and forecasting system. Its main purpose is to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system actively combines conceptual project development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at multiple specific geothermal sites. The forecasting capabilities of the model include estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis.

  3. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  4. SOURCE SELECTION INFORMATION -

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    SOURCE SELECTION INFORMATION - SEE FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION (FAR) 2.101 AND 3.104 ... SOURCE SELECTION INFORMATION - SEE FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION (FAR) 2.101 AND 3.104 ...

  5. Energy Sources | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Sources Energy Sources June 6, 2016 Installing a concentrating solar power system in Gila Bend, Arizona. The curved mirrors are tilted toward the sun, focusing sunlight on tubes that run the length of the mirrors. The reflected sunlight heats a fluid flowing through the tubes. The hot fluid then is used to boil water in a conventional steam-turbine generator to produce electricity. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder. Top 6 Things You Didn't Know About Solar Energy Counting down our list of top things

  6. Sources_Sought_Notices

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Sources for Office Supplies Sources for Office Supplies Consistent with the Office of Management and Budget's savings mandates and the Acting Director of the Office of Procurement and Assistance Management's memorandum entitled "Sources for Office Supplies," dated September 9, 2011, the Department of Energy (DOE) supports utilization of: (1) the General Service Administration's (GSA) Blanket Purchase Agreements (BPA) under the Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative for Office Supplies

  7. Effects of zebra mussels, obtained from Lake Erie and St Lawrence River, as a food source on immune system of lesser scaup

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flipo, D.; Fournier, M.; Beaulieu, C.; Tessier, C.

    1995-12-31

    A feeding study was undertaken to assess the influence of a zebra mussel diet from Lake Erie and the St.Lawrence river on the immune system of lesser scaup. The Great lakes and the St.Lawrence river are known to be among the most contaminated waters found in the country. Analytical studies have shown that zebra mussels are contaminated by organochlorines and other pollutants. The occurrence of these toxicants in the food diet of lesser scaup can cause serious injuries. The immune system, in its capacity to destroy foreign particles and protect the host against diseases, can serve as a useful sentinel of the health status of these environmentally stressed organisms. Immune parameters of lesser scaup fed with zebra mussels from Lake Erie or the St. Lawrence river were evaluated. The duration of the feeding trial was nine weeks. Phagocytic activity and oxidative bursts of heterophils were evaluated by flow cytometry. Intracellular thiol levels of lymphocytes and heterophils were also determined by flow cytometry. The results showed a dimunition of phagocytic activity and bactericidal potential after 6 weeks of the zebra mussel diet compared to the control. These results may be associated with pathology problems encountered in treated groups at the end of the diet. Birds from the St. Lawrence River group (40%) and the Lake Erie group (40%) demonstrated variable degrees of pododermatitis compared to the control group. The intracellular level of thiol was consistently found to be elevated in lymphocytes and heterophyls from birds feeding with on the St. Lawrence River. In conclusion, flow cytometry assays like phagocytosis, oxidative burst and thiol staining can serve as biomarkers of the immune status of birds and can give important information for evaluating the health of birds exposed to environmental contamination.

  8. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  9. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  10. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-03-01

    In this paper, we examine the shape of the persistence model error distribution for ten different wind plants in the ERCOT system over multiple timescales. Comparisons are made between the experimental distribution shape and that of the normal distribution.

  12. New Configuration and Materials for Scalable Bioelectrochemical System and

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  13. Improved Characterization and Monitoring of Electromagnetic Sources -

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Innovation Portal Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Electricity Transmission Electricity Transmission Find More Like This Return to Search Improved Characterization and Monitoring of Electromagnetic Sources Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Contact LLNL About This Technology Technology Marketing Summary LLNL's technology is useful in fields such as power systems engineering, security monitoring, and vehicle tracking to identify, locate and monitor a particular source of

  14. Experimental results of an electron cyclotron resonance oxygen source and a low energy beam transport system for 1 MeV integral split ring radio frequency quadruple accelerator upgrade project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, S. X.; Zhang, M.; Song, Z. Z.; Xu, R.; Zhao, J.; Yuan, Z. X.; Yu, J. X.; Chen, J.; Guo, Z. Y.

    2008-02-15

    To meet the requirements of developing separated function radio frequency quadruple (rfq) and upgrading the 1 MeV integral split ring rfq accelerator, an electron cyclotron resonance O{sup +} ion source and low energy beam transport (LEBT) system have been developed. Using two Einzel lenses to focus the beam, more than 6 mA O{sup +} peak beam current with energy of 22 keV can be easily obtained at the end of LEBT when the duty faction is at 1/6. The normalized root-mean-square emittance of 90% of the beam is about 0.12{pi} mm mrad. By changing the focusing power of lenses, the beam waist can be shifted from 80 mm before the beam diaphragm 2 to 80 mm after it. The experimental results will be presented in this article.

  15. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  16. Microwave ion source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Reijonen, Jani; Thomae, Rainer W.

    2005-07-26

    A compact microwave ion source has a permanent magnet dipole field, a microwave launcher, and an extractor parallel to the source axis. The dipole field is in the form of a ring. The microwaves are launched from the middle of the dipole ring using a coaxial waveguide. Electrons are heated using ECR in the magnetic field. The ions are extracted from the side of the source from the middle of the dipole perpendicular to the source axis. The plasma density can be increased by boosting the microwave ion source by the addition of an RF antenna. Higher charge states can be achieved by increasing the microwave frequency. A xenon source with a magnetic pinch can be used to produce intense EUV radiation.

  17. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  18. Open Source Software

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Open Source Software Open Source Software All open source software available through the Laboratory is listed below. Contact thumbnail of Kathleen McDonald Head of Intellectual Property, Business Development Executive Kathleen McDonald Richard P. Feynman Center for Innovation (505) 667-5844 Email For more information regarding how to access software from Los Alamos, contact the Software Team. brulilo, Version 0.x brulilo is a Python package for building and evolving thermonuclear reaction

  19. Dynamic radioactive particle source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Moore, Murray E.; Gauss, Adam Benjamin; Justus, Alan Lawrence

    2012-06-26

    A method and apparatus for providing a timed, synchronized dynamic alpha or beta particle source for testing the response of continuous air monitors (CAMs) for airborne alpha or beta emitters is provided. The method includes providing a radioactive source; placing the radioactive source inside the detection volume of a CAM; and introducing an alpha or beta-emitting isotope while the CAM is in a normal functioning mode.

  20. Ground Source Heat Pump Subprogram Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EGS Demonstration s, 51.4 Innovative Exploration Technologies, 98.1 Ground Source Heat Pumps, ... chiller, VAV air handling system, and gas-fired hot water boiler *54 GHP units, 200 ...

  1. The Electron Beam Ion Source (EBIS)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Brookhaven Lab

    2010-01-08

    Brookhaven National Lab has successfully developed a new pre-injector system, called the Electron Beam Ion Source, for the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and NASA Space Radiation Laboratory science programs. The first of several planned improvemen

  2. SOURCE SELECTION INFORMATION -

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    SOURCE SELECTION INFORMATION - SEE FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION (FAR) 2.101 AND 3.104 Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 (enter date here, centered revised template...

  3. Improved ion source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Leung, K.N.; Ehlers, K.W.

    1982-05-04

    A magnetic filter for an ion source reduces the production of undesired ion species and improves the ion beam quality. High-energy ionizing electrons are confined by the magnetic filter to an ion source region, where the high-energy electrons ionize gas molecules. One embodiment of the magnetic filter uses permanent magnets oriented to establish a magnetic field transverse to the direction of travel of ions from the ion source region to the ion extraction region. In another embodiment, low energy 16 eV electrons are injected into the ion source to dissociate gas molecules and undesired ion species into desired ion species,

  4. Recycling, Source Reduction,

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... Recovery and Electricity Generation" "(d)","Relative to National Average Landfill" "GREENHOUSE GAS EFFECTS OF RECYCLING, SOURCE REDUCING, AND COMPOSTING VARIOUS WASTE MATERIALS ...

  5. Beamlines | Advanced Photon Source

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Beamlines Beamlines Home Beamlines Directory Research Techniques Sectors Directory Status and Schedule Safety and Training Beamlines The Advanced Photon Source consists of 34...

  6. Regulatory Control of Sealed Sources in Germany including Regulations Regarding Spent and Disused Sources - 13176

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dollan, Ralph; Haeusler, Uwe; Czarwinski, Renate

    2013-07-01

    Effective regulatory control is essential to ensure the safe and secure use of radioactive material and the appropriate management of radioactive waste. To ensure a sustainable control of high radioactive sources, the European Commission published the Council Directive 2003/122/EURATOM on the control of high-activity sealed radioactive sources and orphan sources, which had to be transferred into national legislation by all member states of the European Union. Major requirement of the Directive is a system to ensure traceability of high-activity sealed sources from 'cradle to grave' as well as the provision to take back disused sources by the supplier or manufacturer. With the Act on high-activity sealed radioactive sources Germany implemented the requirements of the Directive 2003/122/EURATOM and established a national registry of high-activity sealed sources in 2006. Currently, about 27.000 high-activity sealed sources are recorded in this national registry. (authors)

  7. Earth System Observations

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4 Earth System Observations Research comprises Earth, ocean, and atmospheric sciences to better understand and predict climate change's impact on ecosystems and to study subsurface geological materials and their interactions. Deploying research facilities globally Forecasting forests' responses to climate change Monitoring terrestrial ecosystems Contact Us Group Leader Claudia Mora Email Deputy Group Leader Bob Roback Email Profile pages header Search our Profile pages Investigating carbon

  8. The Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    120 140 Generation (TWh) Imports Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Biomass Hydro Pumped H. Wind Solar ... Costs + Start-Up and Shutdown Costs + Import Costs - Export Revenues 8 Solar Power ...

  9. Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ...2013 - GSHP Data Analysis in 1 st phase of U.S.-China CERC-BEE - GSHP ARRA Grantee Data Mining 2 | Building Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Purpose & Objectives Problem ...

  10. Radiation Source Replacement Workshop

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Moran, Traci L.; Bond, Leonard J.

    2010-12-01

    This report summarizes a Radiation Source Replacement Workshop in Houston Texas on October 27-28, 2010, which provided a forum for industry and researchers to exchange information and to discuss the issues relating to replacement of AmBe, and potentially other isotope sources used in well logging.

  11. PORTABLE SOURCE OF RADIOACTIVITY

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Goertz, R.C.; Ferguson, K.R.; Rylander, E.W.; Safranski, L.M.

    1959-06-16

    A portable source for radiogiaphy or radiotherapy is described. It consists of a Tl/sup 170/ or Co/sup 60/ source mounted in a rotatable tungsten alloy plug. The plug rotates within a brass body to positions of safety or exposure. Provision is made for reloading and carrying the device safely. (T.R.H.)

  12. Radioisotopic heat source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jones, G.J.; Selle, J.E.; Teaney, P.E.

    1975-09-30

    Disclosed is a radioisotopic heat source and method for a long life electrical generator. The source includes plutonium dioxide shards and yttrium or hafnium in a container of tantalum-tungsten-hafnium alloy, all being in a nickel alloy outer container, and subjected to heat treatment of from about 1570$sup 0$F to about 1720$sup 0$F for about one h. (auth)

  13. Electrospray ion source with reduced analyte electrochemistry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kertesz, Vilmos; Van Berkel, Gary J

    2013-07-30

    An electrospray ion (ESI) source and method capable of ionizing an analyte molecule without oxidizing or reducing the analyte of interest. The ESI source can include an emitter having a liquid conduit, a working electrode having a liquid contacting surface, a spray tip, a secondary working electrode, and a charge storage coating covering partially or fully the liquid contacting surface of the working electrode. The liquid conduit, the working electrode and the secondary working electrode can be in liquid communication. The electrospray ion source can also include a counter electrode proximate to, but separated from, said spray tip. The electrospray ion source can also include a power system for applying a voltage difference between the working electrodes and a counter-electrode. The power system can deliver pulsed voltage changes to the working electrodes during operation of said electrospray ion source to minimize the surface potential of the charge storage coating.

  14. Electrospray ion source with reduced analyte electrochemistry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kertesz, Vilmos [Knoxville, TN; Van Berkel, Gary [Clinton, TN

    2011-08-23

    An electrospray ion (ESI) source and method capable of ionizing an analyte molecule without oxidizing or reducing the analyte of interest. The ESI source can include an emitter having a liquid conduit, a working electrode having a liquid contacting surface, a spray tip, a secondary working electrode, and a charge storage coating covering partially or fully the liquid contacting surface of the working electrode. The liquid conduit, the working electrode and the secondary working electrode can be in liquid communication. The electrospray ion source can also include a counter electrode proximate to, but separated from, said spray tip. The electrospray ion source can also include a power system for applying a voltage difference between the working electrodes and a counter-electrode. The power system can deliver pulsed voltage changes to the working electrodes during operation of said electrospray ion source to minimize the surface potential of the charge storage coating.

  15. Piezotube borehole seismic source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Daley, Tom M; Solbau, Ray D; Majer, Ernest L

    2014-05-06

    A piezoelectric borehole source capable of permanent or semipermanent insertion into a well for uninterrupted well operations is described. The source itself comprises a series of piezoelectric rings mounted to an insulative mandrel internally sized to fit over a section of well tubing, the rings encased in a protective housing and electrically connected to a power source. Providing an AC voltage to the rings will cause expansion and contraction sufficient to create a sonic pulse. The piezoelectric borehole source fits into a standard well, and allows for uninterrupted pass-through of production tubing, and other tubing and electrical cables. Testing using the source may be done at any time, even concurrent with well operations, during standard production.

  16. Photonic crystal light source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Fleming, James G.; Lin, Shawn-Yu; Bur, James A.

    2004-07-27

    A light source is provided by a photonic crystal having an enhanced photonic density-of-states over a band of frequencies and wherein at least one of the dielectric materials of the photonic crystal has a complex dielectric constant, thereby producing enhanced light emission at the band of frequencies when the photonic crystal is heated. The dielectric material can be a metal, such as tungsten. The spectral properties of the light source can be easily tuned by modification of the photonic crystal structure and materials. The photonic crystal light source can be heated electrically or other heating means. The light source can further include additional photonic crystals that exhibit enhanced light emission at a different band of frequencies to provide for color mixing. The photonic crystal light source may have applications in optical telecommunications, information displays, energy conversion, sensors, and other optical applications.

  17. Advanced Variable Speed Air-Source Integrated Heat Pump | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Pump Advanced Variable Speed Air-Source Integrated Heat Pump Advanced variable-speed Air Source Integrated Heat Pump prototype system and field test site near Knoxville, TN Credit: ...

  18. GreenSource Solutions LLC | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    GreenSource Solutions LLC Jump to: navigation, search Name: GreenSource Solutions LLC Place: Novato, California Zip: 94945 Product: US-based PV system installer and consulting....

  19. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  20. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.