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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

A demand side management strategy based on forecasting of residential renewable sources: A smart home system in Turkey  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The existing electricity systems have been substantially designed to allow only centralized power generation and unidirectional power flow. Therefore, the objective of improving the conventional power systems with the capabilities of decentralized generation and advanced control has conflicted with the present power system infrastructure and thus a profound change has necessitated in the current power grids. To that end, the concept of smart grid has been introduced at the last decades in order to accomplish the modernization of the power grid while incorporating various capabilities such as advanced metering, monitoring and self-healing to the systems. Among the various advanced components in smart grid structure, “smart home” is of vital importance due to its handling difficulties caused by the stochastic behaviors of inhabitants. However, limited studies concerning the implementation of smart homes have so far been reported in the literature. Motivated by this need, this paper investigates an experimental smart home with various renewable energy sources and storage systems in terms of several aspects such as in-home energy management, appliances control and power flow. Furthermore, the study represents one of the very first attempts to evaluate the contribution of power forecasting of renewable energy sources on the performance of smart home concepts.

A. Tascikaraoglu; A.R. Boynuegri; M. Uzunoglu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

3

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

4

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

5

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

9

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

13

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

14

Exploring Variations in People’s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Past research has shown that individuals vary in their attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information. To deepen knowledge about these variations, this article explores 1) patterns in people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of ...

Julie L. Demuth; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Rebecca E. Morss

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

Bertossi, Leopoldo

17

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

18

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

20

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

BBO-based small autonomous hybrid power system optimization incorporating wind speed and solar radiation forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Rising carbon emission or carbon footprint imposes grave concern over the earth?s climatic condition, as it results in increasing average global temperature. Renewable energy sources seem to be the favorable solution in this regard. It can reduce the overall energy consumption rate globally. However, the renewable sources are intermittent in nature with very high initial installation price. Off-grid Small Autonomous Hybrid Power Systems (SAHPS) are good alternative for generating electricity locally in remote areas, where the transmission and distribution of electrical energy generated from conventional sources are otherwise complex, difficult and costly. In optimizing SAHPS, weather data over past several years are generally the main input, which include wind speed and solar radiation. The weather resources used in this optimization process have unsystematic variations based on the atmospheric and seasonal phenomenon and it also varies from year to year. While using past data in the analysis of SAHPS performance, it was assumed that the same pattern will be followed in the next year, which in reality is very unlikely to happen. In this paper, we use BBO optimization algorithm for SAHPS optimal component sizing by minimizing the cost of energy. We have also analysed the effect of using forecast weather data instead of past data on the SAHPS performance. ANNs, which are trained with back-propagation training algorithm, are used for wind speed and solar radiation forecasting. A case study was used for demonstrating the performance of BBO optimization algorithm along with forecasting effects. The simulation results clearly showed the advantages of utilizing wind speed and solar radiation forecasting in a SAHPS optimization problem.

R.A. Gupta; Rajesh Kumar; Ajay Kumar Bansal

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Süld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

28

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.

LI De-shun; XU Kai-li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

33

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand…

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the public’s preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Weather Forecasting System Based on Satellite Imageries Using Neuro-fuzzy Techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have built an automated Satellite Images Forecasting System with Neuro-Fuzzy techniques. Firstly, Subtractive Clustering is applied on to a satellite image to extract the locations of the clouds. This is follo...

Chien-Wan Tham; Sion-Hui Tian; Liya Ding

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Static Forecasting of the Execution Times of Complexes of Interrelated Jobs in the Multiprocessor Computer Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Consideration was given to a procedure of approximate forecasting of the execution times of the complexes of interrelated jobs in the multiprocessor computer systems with the Erlangian execution time of each j...

N. N. Ivanov; V. V. Ignatushchenko; A. Yu. Mikhailov

37

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Xie, Jinxing

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4–5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced ...

Dustan M. Wheatley; Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

43

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system will implement a feature-oriented initialization scheme for both west coast ROMS and HOPS. The large Feature oriented Initialization Procedure development (ROMS and HOPS) Initialization Sensitivity runs

Gangopadhyay, Avijit

44

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

45

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80 m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to ...

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

48

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

49

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

50

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate pickups. This work describes an artificial intelligence method to aid the operator in taking decisions during system restoration by estimating residential load behaviour parameters such as overload in buses and the necessary time to recover steady-state power consumption. This method uses a fuzzy rule-based system to forecast the residential load, obtaining correct estimates with low computational cost. Test results using actual substation data are presented.

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

54

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

55

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

58

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

59

Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

- eral days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations Erin B. Munsell1 University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF

60

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of historical distribution load data [2]. The increasinglypopular, accurate, and affordable Geographic Informahon Systems (GIS) technology provides an excellent data base platform for spatial load forecasting on collecting relevant geographic data. Thus spatial load forecasting becomes even more attractive than before

Chow, Mo-Yuen

62

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

A new adaptive fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption forecasting with hike in prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Large increase or hike in energy prices has proven to impact electricity consumption in a way which cannot be drawn ... (FIS) to estimate and forecast long-term electricity consumption when prices experience larg...

S. M. Sajadi; S. M. Asadzadeh; V. Majazi Dalfard…

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Cryogenic hydrogen circulation system of neutron source  

SciTech Connect

Cold neutron sources of reactors and spallation neutron sources are classic high flux neutron sources in operation all over the world. Cryogenic fluids such as supercritical or supercooled hydrogen are commonly selected as a moderator to absorb the nuclear heating from proton beams. By comparing supercritical hydrogen circulation systems and supercooled hydrogen circulation systems, the merits and drawbacks in both systems are summarized. When supercritical hydrogen circulates as the moderator, severe pressure fluctuations caused by temperature changes will occur. The pressure control system used to balance the system pressure, which consists of a heater as an active controller for thermal compensation and an accumulator as a passive volume controller, is preliminarily studied. The results may provide guidelines for design and operation of other cryogenic hydrogen system for neutron sources under construction.

Qiu, Y. N. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 China and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China); Hu, Z. J.; Wu, J. H.; Li, Q.; Zhang, Y. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 (China); Zhang, P. [School of Energy and Power Engineering, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, WH430074 (China); Wang, G. P. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

67

Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept

Brest, Université de

68

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

70

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

71

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

73

Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A battery storage dispatch strategy that optimizes demand charge reduction in real-time was developed and the discharge of battery storage devices in a grid-connected, combined photovoltaic-battery storage system (PV+ system) was simulated for a summer month, July 2012, and a winter month, November 2012, in an operational environment. The problem is formulated as a linear programming (LP; or linear optimization) routine and daily minimization of peak non-coincident demand is sought to evaluate the robustness, reliability, and consistency of the battery dispatch algorithm. The LP routine leverages solar power and load forecasts to establish a load demand target (i.e., a minimum threshold to which demand can be reduced using a photovoltaic (PV) array and battery array) that is adjusted throughout the day in response to forecast error. The LP routine perfectly minimizes demand charge but forecasts errors necessitate adjustments to the perfect dispatch schedule. The PV+ system consistently reduced non-coincident demand on a metered load that has an elevated diurnal (i.e., daytime) peak. The average reduction in peak demand on weekdays (days that contain the elevated load peak) was 25.6% in July and 20.5% in November. By itself, the PV array (excluding the battery array) reduced the peak demand on average 19.6% in July and 11.4% in November. PV alone cannot perfectly mitigate load spikes due to inherent variability; the inclusion of a storage device reduced the peak demand a further 6.0% in July and 9.3% in November. Circumstances affecting algorithm robustness and peak reduction reliability are discussed.

R. Hanna; J. Kleissl; A. Nottrott; M. Ferry

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development | Department...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development Project objectives: 1. Compile filtered hourly data for three...

75

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

77

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

78

Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

SciTech Connect

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

79

Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model  

SciTech Connect

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

2010-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

80

The use of predictive lithostratigraphy to significantly improve the ability to forecast reservoir and source rocks? Final CRADA report.  

SciTech Connect

The purpose of this CRADA, which ended in 2003, was to make reservoir and source rock distribution significantly more predictable by quantifying the fundamental controls on stratigraphic heterogeneity. To do this, the relationships among insolation, climate, sediment supply, glacioeustasy, and reservoir and source rock occurrence were investigated in detail. Work current at the inception of the CRADA had uncovered previously unrecognized associations among these processes and properties that produce a phenomenon that, when properly analyzed, will make lithostratigraphic variability (including texture, porosity, and permeability) substantially more understandable. Computer climate simulations of selected time periods, compared with the global distribution of paleoclimatic indicators, documented spatial and temporal climate changes as a function of insolation and provided quantitative changes in runoff, lake level, and glacioeustasy. The effect of elevation and climate on sediment yield was assessed numerically by analyzing digital terrain and climate data. The phase relationships of climate, yield, and glacioeustatic cycles from the Gulf of Mexico and/or other sedimentary basins were assessed by using lacunarity, a statistical technique.

Doctor, R. D.; Moore, T. L.; Energy Systems

2010-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

82

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

83

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

as other types of air source heat pumps, VRF systems needconventional packaged air source heat pumps. Typical GSHPis basically an air source heat pump), especially when the

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales control measures that could be taken for managing such episodes, European-scale air quality forecasting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

85

An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer Michigan State University #12;LON-CAPA Overview · LON-CAPA is free open-source a learning content management system an assessment system around since 1992 #12;Free and Open-Source · Free: "Free beer

86

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

87

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

88

Small Business Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration Our Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Continuing Management Reform Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Us Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Media Room Congressional Testimony Fact Sheets Newsletters Press Releases Speeches Events Social Media Video Gallery Photo Gallery NNSA Archive Federal Employment Apply for Our Jobs Our Jobs Working at NNSA Blog Small Business Sourcing System Home > About Us > Our Operations > Acquisition and Project Management > Small Business > Small Business Toolbox > Small Business Sourcing System Small Business Sourcing System

89

An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer-CAPA is free open-source a learning content management system an assessment system around since 1992 #12 and �merson Cruz Michigan State University #12;Overview Presentation Outline: ·System Overview

90

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means.

Peng, Fang Zheng (Oak Ridge, TN); Lai, Jih-Sheng (Knoxville, TN)

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

VERIFIABLE ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM: AN OPEN SOURCE SOLUTION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

VERIFIABLE ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM: AN OPEN SOURCE SOLUTION Halina Kaminski* and Mark Perry over existing network system. KEY WORDS Free Libre Open Source Software; Electronic Voting; Security in managing the election process through the use of electronic voting systems. While computer scientists

Perry, Mark

96

Study of the SMO Algorithm Applied in Power System Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A new methodology on the algorithm of sequential minimal optimization (SMO) for power system load was presented. In order to solve the ... (SVM) can not deal with large scale data, this paper introduces the modif...

Jingmin Wang; Kanzhang Wu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Trimming of a ground source heat pump system in Saltsjöbaden.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

?? The real performance of ground source heat pumps systems are not precisely highlighted in most cases, especially when it comes to installations older than… (more)

Garnier, Michel

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

99

Model Reduction for Power Electronics Systems with Multiple Heat Sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Model Reduction for Power Electronics Systems with Multiple Heat Sources A. Augustin, T. Hauck, B demonstrates the model order re- duction procedures applied to semiconductor devices with multiple heat sources. The approach is demonstrated for a device with nine heat sources where some of them are perma- nently active

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

100

Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An accurate product reliability prediction model can not only learn and track the product's reliability and operational performance, but also offer useful information for managers to take follow-up actions to improve the product' quality and cost. This ... Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Neural network model, Reliability prediction, Repairable system

L. Yi-Hui

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

103

Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources  

SciTech Connect

An alternative synchronization technique – one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

Zavriyev, Anton

2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

104

Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

Kulp, Thomas Jan (Livermore, CA); Kliner, Dahv A. V. (San Ramon, CA); Sommers, Ricky (Oakley, CA); Goers, Uta-Barbara (Campbell, NY); Armstrong, Karla M. (Livermore, CA)

2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

105

Method and system of integrating information from multiple sources  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and method of integrating information from multiple sources in a document centric application system. A plurality of application systems are connected through an object request broker to a central repository. The information may then be posted on a webpage. An example of an implementation of the method and system is an online procurement system.

Alford, Francine A. (Livermore, CA); Brinkerhoff, David L. (Antioch, CA)

2006-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

106

Combined permeable pavement and ground source heat pump systems   

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The PhD thesis focuses on the performance assessment of permeable pavement systems incorporating ground source heat pumps (GSHP). The relatively high variability of temperature in these systems allows for the survival of pathogenic organisms within...

Grabowiecki, Piotr

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

108

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

110

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

111

Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources  

SciTech Connect

The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Peer Review Peer Review GSHP System Data Analysis Xiaobing Liu, Ph.D. Oak Ridge National Laboratory liux2@ornl.gov (865-574-2593) 4/3/2013 - GSHP Data Analysis in 1 st phase of U.S.-China CERC-BEE - GSHP ARRA Grantee Data Mining 2 | Building Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Purpose & Objectives Problem Statement: High first cost of ground heat exchangers (GHXs) and lack of knowledge/trust in achievable benefits are major barriers preventing

113

Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Peer Review Peer Review GSHP System Data Analysis Xiaobing Liu, Ph.D. Oak Ridge National Laboratory liux2@ornl.gov (865-574-2593) 4/3/2013 - GSHP Data Analysis in 1 st phase of U.S.-China CERC-BEE - GSHP ARRA Grantee Data Mining 2 | Building Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Purpose & Objectives Problem Statement: High first cost of ground heat exchangers (GHXs) and lack of knowledge/trust in achievable benefits are major barriers preventing

114

Sources of Schedule Risk in Complex System Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

From one perspective, developing complex systems is an exercise in uncertainty reduction and risk management. In this article I first organize the principle sources of risk in product development into five categories: ...

Browning, Tyson R.

1998-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

115

Mass-Selected Ion Deposition System - Electrospray Source | EMSL  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

molecules originating in the ion source from impacting the surface, an ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) chamber for ion deposition by soft landing, and a vacuum-lock system for introducing...

116

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings:...

117

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

High-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical ...

N. C. Privé; Yuanfu Xie; Steven Koch; Robert Atlas; Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ross N. Hoffman

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

120

Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis  

SciTech Connect

A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

2009-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Wind Power Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

122

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

126

APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO BUILDINGS AND BRIDGE DECKS. By MAHADEVAN PUMP SYSTEMS TO BUILDINGS AND BRIDGE DECKS. Thesis Approved cannot find enough words to thank my father, H. Ramamoorthy, my mother, R. Devasena, and my brother

127

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

128

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

New ion source for KSTAR neutral beam injection system  

SciTech Connect

The neutral beam injection system (NBI-1) of the KSTAR tokamak can accommodate three ion sources; however, it is currently equipped with only one prototype ion source. In the 2010 and 2011 KSTAR campaigns, this ion source supplied deuterium neutral beam power of 0.7-1.6 MW to the KSTAR plasma with a beam energy of 70-100 keV. A new ion source will be prepared for the 2012 KSTAR campaign with a much advanced performance compared with the previous one. The newly designed ion source has a very large transparency ({approx}56%) without deteriorating the beam optics, which is designed to deliver a 2 MW injection power of deuterium beams at 100 keV. The plasma generator of the ion source is of a horizontally cusped bucket type, and the whole inner wall, except the cathode filaments and plasma grid side, functions as an anode. The accelerator assembly consists of four multi-circular aperture grids made of copper and four electrode flanges made of aluminum alloy. The electrodes are insulated using PEEK. The ion source will be completed and tested in 2011.

Kim, Tae-Seong; Jeong, Seung Ho; In, Sang-Ryul [Department of Nuclear Fusion Engineering Development, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

130

NiSource Energy Technologies Inc.: System Integration of Distributed Power for Complete Building Systems  

SciTech Connect

Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

Not Available

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

132

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

133

Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

Bornstein, Jonathan G. (Miami, FL); Friedman, Peter S. (Toledo, OH)

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER SOURCES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER SOURCES Nejc Trdin1, 2 , Marko Bohanec1 , Mitja.bohanec}@ijs.si, mitja.janza@geo-zs.si ABSTRACT Meeting the quality criteria for drinking water is one of the areas which of data collected while monitoring water adequacy, an expert carries a large burden and also his decisions

Bohanec, Marko

135

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

136

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

tool for geothermal water loop heat pump systems, 9thInternational IEA Heat Pump Conference, Zürich, Switzerland,Performance of ground source heat pump system in a near-zero

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

140

A capital cost comparison of commercial ground-source heat pump systems  

SciTech Connect

The report provides a capital cost comparison of commercial ground source heat pump systems. The study includes groundwater systems, ground-coupled systems and hybrid systems.

Rafferty, K.

1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Assessment of a Solar Assisted Air Source and a Solar Assisted Water Source Heat Pump System in a Canadian Household  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an assessment of two solar assisted heat pump systems integrated into an air distribution system in three different 210 m2 single detached residential houses in Montreal, Canada. The housing types considered are a 1980's house, an energy efficient house and a “net zero ready” house. The advanced heat pump systems considered in the analysis focused on coupling solar energy on the evaporator side of an air source and water source heat pumps to improve performance compared to a standard air source heat pump and provide an alternative to a costly ground source heat pump system. The annual energy consumption and utility cost of the solar assisted heat pump systems were compared to a market available air source heat pump, a ground source heat pump system as well as the typical reference housing heating and cooling system. The results predicted that a solar assisted air source heat pump has a comparable capital cost to a ground source heat pump system in all housing types and the highest energy savings for a “net zero ready” house of 34% compared to the base case. The solar assisted water source heat pump did not yield interesting results, as the solar assisted air source heat pump demonstrated improved energy savings and lower capital costs in all housing types considered. Comparing the 20 year life cycle costs of the solar assisted heat pump systems to the base case, only in the 1980's housing archetype did the solar assisted air source heat pump system demonstrate a lower life cycle cost than the base case. A standard air source heat pump yielded the lowest life cycle cost in the 1980's and energy efficient house considered and the reference base case system had the lowest life cycle cost in the net zero ready house considered.

Martin Kegel; Justin Tamasauskas; Roberto Sunye; Antoine Langlois

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

SNS/BNL Diagnostics System Group, Spallation Neutron Source, SNS  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

SNS/BNL Diagnostics System Group SNS/BNL Diagnostics System Group Homepage The Spallation Neutron Source project is a collaboration between six national laboratories of the United states to build a Mega Watt neutrons source driven by a proton accelerator. The complex is going to be build in Oak Ridge (Tennessee) and consists of a full energy (1 Gev) linac, an accumulator ring and a mercury target with several instruments for neutron scattering. Information on the project can be found at http://www.sns.gov. At Brookhaven National Laboratory we work mainly on the accumulator ring and transfer lines diagnostics (HEBT, Ring, RTBT). Some of the systems are SNS-wide ie: the Beam Loss Monitor system and Beam Current Monitor system. In addition our group provides parts of other systems to our partner laboratories. Our group is part or the Collider Accelerator Division that is also in charge of RHIC and the AGS complex. If you are looking for information on a particular topic you can contact the persons working on it.

143

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

145

Electric machine and current source inverter drive system  

SciTech Connect

A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

Hsu, John S

2014-06-24T23:59:59.000Z

146

Linac Coherent Light Source Undulator RF BPM System  

SciTech Connect

The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) will be the world's first x-ray free-electron laser (FEL) when it becomes operational in 2009. The LCLS is currently in the construction phase. The beam position monitor (BPM) system planned for the LCLS undulator will incorporate a high-resolution X-band cavity BPM system described in this paper. The BPM system will provide high-resolution measurements of the electron beam trajectory on a pulse-to-pulse basis and over many shots. The X-band cavity BPM size, simple fabrication, and high resolution make it an ideal choice for LCLS beam position detection. We will discuss the system specifications, design, and prototype test results.

Lill, R.M.; Morrison, L.H.; Waldschmidt, G.J.; Walters, D.R.; /Argonne; Johnson, R.; Li, Z.; Smith, S.; Straumann, T.; /SLAC

2007-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

147

Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.

Duk Hee Lee; Sang Yong Park; Jong Chul Hong; Sang Jin Choi; Jong Wook Kim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

150

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

151

A key review of wastewater source heat pump (WWSHP) systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Heat pumps (HPs) are part of the environmentally friendly technologies using renewable energy and have been utilized in the developed countries for years. Wastewater is seen as a renewable heat source for HPs. At the beginning of the 1980s, waste (sewage) water source heat pumps (WWSHPs) were widely applied in North European countries like Sweden and Norway and partially applied in China. In the past two decades, the WWSHP has become increasingly popular due to its advantages of relatively higher energy utilization efficiency and environmental protection. The present study comprehensively reviews WWSHP systems in terms of applications and performance assessments including energetic, exergetic, environmental and economic aspects for the first time to the best of the authors’ knowledge. In this context, a historical development of \\{WWSHPs\\} was briefly given first. Next, wastewater potential and its characteristics were presented while a WWSHP system was introduced. The previously conducted studies on \\{WWSHPs\\} were then reviewed and classified in a tabulated form. Finally, some concluding remarks were listed. The COP values of the reviewed studies ranged from 1.77 to 10.63 for heating and 2.23 to 5.35 for cooling based on the experimental and simulated values. The performance assessments are mostly made using energy analysis methods while the number of exergetic evaluations is very low and has not been comprehensively performed. It is expected that the comprehensive review here will be very beneficial to those dealing with the design, analysis, simulation and performance assessment of WWSHP systems.

Arif Hepbasli; Emrah Biyik; Orhan Ekren; Huseyin Gunerhan; Mustafa Araz

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

153

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

154

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

155

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

156

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

157

A Stochastic Calculus for Network Systems with Renewable Energy Sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We consider the performance modeling and evaluation of network systems powered with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Such energy sources largely depend on environmental conditions, which are hard to predict accurately. As such, it may only make sense to require the network systems to support a soft quality of service (QoS) guarantee, i.e., to guarantee a service requirement with a certain high probability. In this paper, we intend to build a solid mathematical foundation to help better understand the stochastic energy constraint and the inherent correlation between QoS and the uncertain energy supply. We utilize a calculus approach to model the cumulative amount of charged energy and the cumulative amount of consumed energy. We derive upper and lower bounds on the remaining energy level based on a stochastic energy charging rate and a stochastic energy discharging rate. By building the bridge between energy consumption and task execution (i.e., service), we study the QoS guarantee under...

Wu, Kui; Marinakis, Dimitri

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Optimized Operation Strategies for PV Storages Systems Yield Limitations, Optimized Battery Configuration and the Benefit of a Perfect Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Decreasing feed in tariffs and system prices combined with an increase of electricity tariffs supports the trend to install PV storage systems in private households. In the past years several investigations and field trials have shown, that these systems can increase the self consumption of PV-power and support the self sufficiency of private households [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. These systems also have a positive influence on the low-voltage grid [7], [8]. In recent years several investigations have been done to determine the optimal system configuration. They focus on the storage and PV generator size [9] or the applied storage technology [10]. In general, the mode of operation follows a simple regime: If PV production is larger than the actual consumption, PV power is stored. If the local consumption is higher than the actual PV production, stored power is used as long as available. Only slight modifications have been done, to map the price and efficiency effects of power electronics [11], [12]. Therefore, the results are limited to a single mode of operation. In this presentation, we derive a mathematical framework, which allows the calculation of the upper performance limit for a specific household and storage system, without any assumption on the operation strategy. We apply these analysis to a large set of German households and compare the upper performance limit for two different storage system designs: A system with relative short lifetime and small capacity on the one hand and another with a long lifetime and larger capacity

Armin U. Schmiegel; Andreas Kleine

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

160

Experimental investigation on system with combination of ground-source heat pump and solar collector  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the heating performance and energy distribution of a system with the combination of ground-source heat pump and solar collector or a solar-assisted ground-source heat pump system (SAGSHPS) by ...

Tao Hu ? ?; Jialing Zhu ???; Wei Zhang ? ?

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)  

SciTech Connect

The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

163

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities

164

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

165

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

166

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

Study of the design Method of an Efficient Ground Source Heat Pump Thermal Source System in a Cold Area  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system-an energy efficiency and environment friendly system-is becoming popular in many parts of China. However, an imbalance usually exists between the annual heat extracted from and rejected to the ground due...

Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.; Zou, Y.; Du, G.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

170

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

172

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

173

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1 , Arthur H.M. ter Hofstede2 , Nick Russell3 Management (BPM) systems and the increasing acceptance and spread of open source software. This development and BPM systems? 2. What is the maturity level of these systems? Seeking answers to these questions we

van der Aalst, Wil

175

Vacuum system for the LBL advanced light source (ALS)  

SciTech Connect

A 1.5 to 1.9 GeV synchrotron light source is being built at LBL. The vacuum system is designed to permit all synchrotron photons on the median plane to escape the electron channel and go into an antechamber through a 10 mm high slot. This slot offers effective RF isolation between the electron duct and the antechamber. All unused synchrotron photons within a few mrad of the median plane will be stopped by 96 nearly horizontal absorbers located in the antechamber. The gas, generated by the photons hitting the absorbers, will be directed down to reactive titanium surfaces. Twelve 10 meter long vessels constitute the vacuum chambers for all the lattice magnets. Each chamber will be machined from two thick plates of 5083-H321 aluminum and welded at the perimeter. The nominal wall thickness of the vacuum chamber is 40 mm, which makes it possible to machine a flange into the chamber without the use of welding. 5 refs., 5 figs.

Kennedy, K.

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Advanced light ion source extraction system for a new electron cyclotron resonance ion source geometry at Saclay  

SciTech Connect

One of the main goal of intense light ion injector projects such as IPHI, IFMIF, or SPIRAL2, is to produce high current beams while keeping transverse emittance as low as possible. To prevent emittance growth induced in a dual solenoid low energy transfer line, its length has to be minimized. This can be performed with the advanced light ion source extraction system concept that we are developing: a new ECR 2.45 GHz type ion source based on the use of an additional low energy beam transport (LEBT) short length solenoid close to the extraction aperture to create the resonance in the plasma chamber. The geometry of the source has been considerably modified to allow easy maintenance of each component and to save space in front of the extraction. The source aims to be very flexible and to be able to extract high current ion beams at energy up to 100 kV. A specific experimental setup for this source is under installation on the BETSI test bench, to compare its performances with sources developed up to now in the laboratory, such as SILHI, IFMIF, or SPIRAL2 ECR sources. This original extraction source concept is presented, as well as electromagnetic simulations with OPERA-2D code. Ion beam extraction in space charge compensation regime with AXCEL, and beam dynamics simulation with SOLMAXP codes show the beam quality improvement at the end of the LEBT.

Delferriere, O.; Gobin, R.; Harrault, F.; Nyckees, S.; Sauce, Y.; Tuske, O. [Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique, CEA/Saclay, DSM/IRFU, 91191 Gif/Yvette (France)

2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

177

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Development Principal Investigator Scott Hackel, Energy Center of Wisconsin Ground Source Heat Pumps Demonstration Projects May 18, 2010 This presentation does not contain any...

178

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Study on Energy Efficiency Evaluation Method of Cooling Water System of Surface Water Source Heat Pump  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Water source heat pump system is a green air-conditioning system which has high efficiency, energy saving, and environmental protection, but inappropriate design of the system type of water intake will impact on ...

Jibo Long; Siyi Huang

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

183

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

184

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

186

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

187

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

188

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

189

NiSource Energy Technologies: Optimizing Combined Heat and Power Systems  

SciTech Connect

Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

Not Available

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

191

Biochemical Screening of Pyrimidine Antimetabolites: I. Systems with Oxidative Energy Source  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Systems with Oxidative Energy Source* JOSEPHE. STONEANDVANR...to the uridine nucleo tides. Normal rat liver cytoplasm...furnished the source of energy for the reactions. A...of an agent upon the energy source, the absolute...ics to uridine nucleo- tides, could be used for production...

Joseph E. Stone and Van R. Potter

1956-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Application/architecture power co-optimization for embedded systems powered by renewable sources  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Embedded systems are being built with renewable power sources such as solar cells to replenish the energy of batteries. The renewable power sources have a wide range of efficiency levels that depend on environment parameters and the current drawn from ... Keywords: architectural optimization, load matching, power management, power utilization, renewable power source

Dexin Li; Pai H. Chou

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Photon collimator system for the ILC Positron Source  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

High energy e+e- linear colliders are the next large scale project in particle physics. They need intense sources to achieve the required luminosity. In particular, the positron source must provide about 10E+14 positrons per second. The positron source for the International Linear Collider (ILC) is based on a helical undulator passed by the electron beam to create an intense circularly polarized photon beam. With these photons a longitudinally polarized positron beam is generated; the degree of polarization can be enhanced by collimating the photon beam. However, the high photon beam intensity causes huge thermal load in the collimator material. In this paper the thermal load in the photon collimator is discussed and a flexible design solution is presented.

Riemann, S; Moortgat-Pick, G; Ushakov, A

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

An Open Source Laboratory for Operating Systems Projects Mark Claypool, David Finkel and Craig Wills *  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 An Open Source Laboratory for Operating Systems Projects Mark Claypool, David Finkel and Craig 100 Institute Road Worcester, MA 01609 Abstract Typical undergraduate operating systems projects use services provided by an operating system via system calls or develop code in a simulated operating system

Claypool, Mark

195

Combined Operation of Solar Energy Source Heat Pump, Low-vale Electricity and Floor Radiant System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

solar energy, low-vale electricity as heat sources in a floor radiant system are analyzed. This paper presents a new heat pump system and discusses its operational modes in winter....

Liu, G.; Guo, Z.; Hu, S.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Designing and testing the neutron source deployment system and calibration plan for a dark matter detector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this thesis, we designed and tested a calibration and deployment system for the MiniCLEAN dark matter detector. The deployment system uses a computer controlled winch to lower a canister containing a neutron source into ...

Westerdale, Shawn (Shawn S.)

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Long-Distance FBG Sensor System Using High-Speed Swept-Wavelength Light Source  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A long-distance FBG sensor system using a power controlled high-speed swept-wavelength light source is proposed and demonstrated. This system can measure FBGs reflection wavelengths...

Saitoh, Takanori; Nakamura, Kenichi; Takahashi, Yoshifumi; Iida, Hiroyuki; Iki, Yoshimitsu; Miyagi, Koichiro

198

An assessment of the measurement equivalence of rating sources in a multisource feedback system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(Tornow, 1993b; Funderburg & Levy, 1997). Supporters of 360-degree feedback systems believe that each rating source provides the ratee with unique information (e. g. , Hazucha, Hezlett, & Schneider, 1993), so high levels of agreement between rating... sources are not expected. However, 360-degree feedback systems have been criticized for the low levels of agreement between rating sources, as psychometric theory states that high levels of agreement between ratings 1'rom different raters are needed...

Sheehan, Mary Kathleen

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION M in a ground source heat pump system falls near or below 0o C, an antifreeze mixture must be used to prevent freezing in the heat pump. The antifreeze mixture type and concentration has a number of implications

200

SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources Fan Wang Gagan that are hidden behind query forms, thus forming what is re- ferred to as the deep web. In this paper, we propose SEEDEEP, a System for Exploring and quErying scientific DEEP web data sources. SEEDEEP is able

Agrawal, Gagan

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

FINITE-SOURCE QUEUEING SYSTEMS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

-free operation time of the whole system. 0Research is partially supported by Hungarian Scientific Research Fund unloader system at which trains arrive which bring coal from various mines. There are N trains involved", which is one the most important performance measures showing the system's processing power. Example 4

Sztrik, János

202

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

203

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

204

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

206

Field Test of High Efficiency Residential Buildings with Ground-source and Air-source Heat Pump Systems  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the field performance of space conditioning and water heating equipment in four single-family residential structures with advanced thermal envelopes. Each structure features a different, advanced thermal envelope design: structural insulated panel (SIP); optimum value framing (OVF); insulation with embedded phase change materials (PCM) for thermal storage; and exterior insulation finish system (EIFS). Three of the homes feature ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) for space conditioning and water heating while the fourth has a two-capacity air-source heat pump (ASHP) and a heat pump water heater (HPWH). Two of the GCHP-equipped homes feature horizontal ground heat exchange (GHX) loops that utillize the existing foundation and utility service trenches while the third features a vertical borehole with vertical u-tube GHX. All of the houses were operated under the same simulated occupancy conditions. Operational data on the house HVAC/Water heating (WH) systems are presented and factors influencing overall performance are summarized.

Ally, Moonis Raza [ORNL] [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL] [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL] [ORNL

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

208

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

209

Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

210

System and Method for Sealing a Vapor Deposition Source - Energy...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

costs and minimizes system downtime for cleaning Applications and Industries Thin film solar Deposition of any thin film Patents and Patent Applications ID Number Title and...

211

Economic Operation and Planning of Distribution System Sources.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis presents the findings of some research carried out pertaining to economic operation and planning distribution systems. An optimal capacitor switching algorithm is developed… (more)

Li, KaiYu

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Multi-Source Hydronic Heat Pump System Performance Test Bed  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

pump unit) with a central chilled water storage tank. The MSHHP system uses significantly less energy than a conventional HVAC system, and lowers peak demand by shifting required electrical energy consumption to lower-cost, off-peak and mid-peak rates...

Meckler, M.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Method and system for imaging a radiation source  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

Myjak, Mitchell J. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA

2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

215

Lighting Group: Sources and Ballasts: HID Lighting Systems  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Ballasts and Controls for HID Lighting Ballasts and Controls for HID Lighting Systems Evaluation of Electronic Ballasts and Related Controls for HID Lighting Systems Objective HID ballast The goal of this project is to evaluate the potential of electronic ballasts and related controls for HID lighting systems to improve the efficiency of current technology. The specific objectives of this project are to: Test, analyze and determine the potential of electronic ballasts for HID lighting systems in cooperation with manufacturers as an emerging energy efficient technology to reduce lighting loads in commercial, industrial and municipal applications. Identify control strategies to further improve the energy efficiency of these systems with a municipal partner. Provide appropriate recommendations for incorporating these technologies into current state codes and regulations.

216

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

217

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

218

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

219

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

220

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

An integrated strategic sourcing process for complex systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Aerospace firms continue to outsource increasingly complex components and systems for access to talent, lower costs, and global presence. In addition to strong competition from Airbus and other emergent companies, Boeing ...

Hsu, David T. (David Ta-wei)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

DYNAMIC MODELLING OF AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS INCLUDING RENEWABLE POWER SOURCES.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

(thermal, gas, diesel) and renewable (hydro, wind) power units. The objective is to assess the impact - that have a special dynamic behaviour, and the wind turbines. Detailed models for each one of the power system components are developed. Emphasis is given in the representation of different hydro power plant

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

224

Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems Dewayne changes occur outside the tool. In contrast, Infuse concentrates on the actual change process and provides facilities for both managing and coordinating source changes. Infuse provides facilities for automatically

Perry, Dewayne E.

225

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

226

Immune System's Fat Problem Solved | Advanced Photon Source  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Getting to the Core of Luminescent Nanowires Getting to the Core of Luminescent Nanowires Giant Magnetocaloric Materials Could Have Large Impact on the Environment Tracking the Origins of Fossil Fuels Tailoring the Properties of Magnetic Nanostructures X-ray Holograms Expose Secret Magnetism Science Highlights Archives: 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | Subscribe to APS Science Highlights rss feed Immune System's Fat Problem Solved JUNE 22, 2007 Bookmark and Share Footprint of the NKT TCR on the surface of human CD1d. © 2007 Nature Publishing Group Understanding how the human immune system functions helps science develop pharmaceuticals to combat disease. We now have new information on this process, thanks to scientists from Monash University and the University of

227

Using GIS to Study Pollutant Source Function in Passaic River System, New Jersey  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using GIS to Study Pollutant Source Function in Passaic River System, New Jersey Huan Feng1 Information Systems (GIS) to map the distributions of contaminants in the sediments. This study is designed in the Passaic River system using GIS methods. The results are expected to be vital in developing environmental

Brookhaven National Laboratory

228

Chapter III. Processes F. Land-Based N Sources and Their Delivery to Coastal Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to terrestrial systems of newly fixed N2 (the conversion of relatively inert N2 gas to more bioavailable N forms can be important pathways for delivery of land-based N sources. This chapter focuses on export of N

Seitzinger, Sybil

229

Real-Time Implementation Control for Multi-source Energy System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper describes the first stage of an on going project dealing with the multi-source energy management Strategy. In this work, a combined system producing electrical energy from Photovoltaic (PV) energy, wind

Adil Mehdary; Aziz Naamane; Nacer M’sirdi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Biofilms as sources of fecal bacteria contamination in the stormwater drainage system in Singapore  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A study was performed to examine a possible source of fecal bacteria contamination originating from within the stormwater drainage system in Singapore. The extent of fecal bacteria presence in storm drain biofilms was ...

Burkhart, Tsung Hwa (Tsung Hwa Sophia)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

233

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION  

SciTech Connect

The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

236

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Plants' Rapid Response System Revealed | Advanced Photon Source  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Rewriting the Organofluorine Playbook Rewriting the Organofluorine Playbook Computer-Designed Proteins to Disarm a Variety of Flu Viruses Driving Membrane Curvature Unlocking the Nanoscale Secrets of Bird-Feather Colors An Unlikely Route to Ferroelectricity Science Highlights Archives: 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | Subscribe to APS Science Highlights rss feed Plants' Rapid Response System Revealed JULY 6, 2012 Bookmark and Share Images of several related proteins made at synchrotrons in the U.S. and France have allowed scientists at Washington University in St. Louis and the European Molecular Biology Laboratory in Grenoble, France, to solve the structure of a key piece of the biochemical machinery that allows plants to control the concentrations of circulating hormones. WUSTL graduate student

239

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

243

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

244

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

245

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

246

Short communication Optimization of hybrid ground coupled and air source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short communication Optimization of hybrid ­ ground coupled and air source ­ heat pump systems 2008 Accepted 14 January 2010 Available online 28 January 2010 Keywords: Ground coupled heat pump Air to water heat pump Thermal storage device Hybrid HVAC system Energy efficiency Numerical simulation a b

Fernández de Córdoba, Pedro

247

Ball State University Completes Nation's Largest Ground-Source Geothermal System with Support from Recovery Act  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

As part of the Obama Administration's all-of-the-above approach to American energy, the Energy Department today congratulated Ball State University for its campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system.

248

Analysis of combined cooling, heating, and power systems based on source primary energy consumption  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) is a cogeneration technology that integrates an absorption chiller to produce cooling, which is sometimes referred to as trigeneration. For building applications, CCHP systems have the advantage to maintain high overall energy efficiency throughout the year. Design and operation of CCHP systems must consider the type and quality of the energy being consumed. Type and magnitude of the on-site energy consumed by a building having separated heating and cooling systems is different than a building having CCHP. Therefore, building energy consumption must be compared using the same reference which is usually the primary energy measured at the source. Site-to-source energy conversion factors can be used to estimate the equivalent source energy from site energy consumption. However, building energy consumption depends on multiple parameters. In this study, mathematical relations are derived to define conditions a CCHP system should operate in order to guarantee primary energy savings.

Nelson Fumo; Louay M. Chamra

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

251

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

252

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

253

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

254

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

255

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

256

Designing, selecting and installing a residential ground-source heat pump system  

SciTech Connect

It's a compelling proposition: Use the near-constant-temperature heat underground to heat and cool your home and heat domestic water, slashing your energy bills. Yet despite studies demonstrating significant energy savings from ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems, their adoption has been hindered by high upfront costs. Fewer than 1% of US homes use a GSHP system. However, compared to a minimum-code-compliant conventional space-conditioning system, when properly designed and installed, a GSHP retrofit at current market prices offers simple payback of 4.3 years on national average, considering existing federal tax credits. Most people understand how air-source heat pumps work: they move heat from indoor air to outdoor air when cooling and from outdoor air to indoor air when heating. The ground-source heat pump operates on the same principle, except that it moves heat to or from the ground source instead of outdoor air. The ground source is usually a vertical or horiontal ground heat exchanger. Because the ground usually has a more favorable temperature than ambient air for the heating and cooling operation of the vapor-compression refrigeration cycle, GSHP sysems can operate with much higher energy efficiencies than air-source heat pump systems when properly designed and installed. A GSHP system used in a residual building typically provides space conditioning and hot water and comprises three major components: a water-source heat pump unit designed to operate at a wider range of entering fluid temperatures (typically from 30 F to 110 F, or 1 C to 43 C) than a conventional water-source heat pump unit; a ground heat exchanger (GHX); and distribution systems to deliver hot water to the storage tank and heating or cooling to the conditioned rooms. In most residual GSHP systems, the circulation pumps and associated valves are integrated with the heat pump to circulate the heat-carrier fluid (water or aqueous antifreeze solution) through the heat pump and the GHX. A recent assessment indicates that if 20% of US homes replaced their existing space-conditioning and water-heating systems with properly designed, installed and operated state-of-the-art GSHP systems, it would yield significant benefits each year. These include 0.8 quad British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy savings, 54.3 million metric tons of CO{sub 2} emission reductions, $10.4 billion in energy cost savings and 43.2 gigawatts of reduction in summer peak electrical demand.

Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Liu, Xiaobing [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Conference Proceedings: TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Details Activities (1) Areas (1) Regions (0) Abstract: Vein and alteration assemblages from eight Coso wells have been collected and their fluid-inclusion gases analyzed by quadrupole mass spectrometry. Four major types of alteration were sampled: 1) young calcite-hematite-pyrite veins; 2) wairakite or epidote veins and alteration that are spatially associated with deep reservoirs in the main field and eastern wells; 3) older sericite and pyrite wallrock alteration; and 4) stilbite-calcite veins that are common in cooler or marginal portions of

258

A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Wind) For Rural Communities In Mexico Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Book Section: A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Wind) For Rural Communities In Mexico Details Activities (0) Areas (0) Regions (0) Abstract: Summary The generation and exploitation of energy are intimately linked to the growth and development of a country. The energy policy that prevails around the world, including Mexico, is mainly based on the use of fossil fuels (hydrocarbons), which have impacted the environment in a considerable way, and will not be able to accomplish the compromises of a sustainable development policy. It is necessary to modify the actual

259

Devonian Novaculites as source of oil in Marathon-Ouachita thrust system  

SciTech Connect

The Arkansas Novaculite of southern Oklahoma and the Caballos Novaculite of west Texas (both Devonian) form fractured reservoirs in the Marathon-Ouachita thrust system. These formations were examined to ascertain their petroleum potential. Findings include the following. (1) The thermal maturity of the thrust system conforms to the maturity of the sequence that it has overthrust, suggesting that this allochthonous facies is not anomalously mature. (2) Shale units within the novaculites contain oil-prone organic matter in sufficient concentrations to constitute source rocks. (3) The composition of oils from Isom Springs field in southern Oklahoma and from McKay Creek field in west Texas is virtually identical and generally resembles Devonian oils in Oklahoma and west Texas. The authors concluded that the Devonian novaculites of the Marathon-Ouachita thrust system are self sourcing and do not require a fortuitous juxtaposition of source rocks of a different age to produce a commercial deposit.

Zemmels, I.; Grizzle, P.L.; Walters, C.C.; Haney, F.R.

1985-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Closed source experimental system for soft x-ray spectroscopy of radioactive materials  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An instrumental and experimental setup for soft x-rayspectroscopy meeting the requirements of a closed source for radioactivity is described. The system consists of a vacuum sealed cell containing the sample mounted on a tubing system to ensure compatibility with most standard manipulators. The soft x rays penetrate a thin x-ray window separating the interior of the cell from the vacuum in the experimental chamber. Our first results for single crystal PuO 2 confirm the feasibility of experiments using the setup. The results are consistent with results of first principles calculations and previously recorded spectra obtained using a standard open source setup. The results show that the closed source experimental system can be used to collect valuable experimental data from radioactive materials.

A. Modin; S. M. Butorin; J. Vegelius; A. Olsson; C.-J. Englund; J. Andersson; L. Werme; J. Nordgren; T. Käämbre; G. Skarnemark; B. E. Burakov

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology weather and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6% which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

264

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

The Ultra Luminous X-ray sources in the High Velocity System of NGC 1275  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We report the results of a study of X-ray point sources coincident with the High Velocity System (HVS) projected in front of NGC 1275. A very deep X-ray image of the core of the Perseus cluster made with the Chandra Observatory has been used. We find a population of Ultra-Luminous X-ray sources (ULX; 7 sources with LX [0.5-7 keV] > 7x10^39 erg/s). As with the ULX populations in the Antennae and Cartwheel galaxies, those in the HVS are associated with a region of very active star formation. Several sources have possible optical counterparts found on HST images, although the X-ray brightest one does not. Absorbed power-law models fit the X-ray spectra, with most having a photon index between 2 and 3.

O. Gonzalez-Martin; A. C. Fabian; J. S. Sanders

2006-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

266

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stéphane Bélair; Claude Girard; André Plante

267

Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical ...

Michael E. Splitt; Steven M. Lazarus; Sarah Collins; Denis N. Botambekov; William P. Roeder

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a ...

Stefano Materia; Andrea Borrelli; Alessio Bellucci; Andrea Alessandri; Pierluigi Di Pietro; Panagiotis Athanasiadis; Antonio Navarra; Silvio Gualdi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Negative resistances in nonlinear lumped acoustic systems and IC?engine source data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Negative real parts of impedances can be found in IC?engine source characterization measurements. There is an obvious problem with the physical interpretation of negative resistances and consequently there have been many questions about the validity of such results. This paper is an attempt to explain the origin of the mentioned negative acoustic resistances. To this end a simple nonlinear lumped acoustic system that is a force?driven damped mass?spring system is analyzed. Since this is a common case in acoustic measurements linear analysis is performed in spite of the obvious nonlinear properties. It is shown that the degree of nonlinearity in the system is crucial to the values of the acoustic impedance. Furthermore it is shown that it is possible to achieve negative resistances already in a simple lumped system. Finally these results are also compared to simulated and measured IC?engine source impedances.

Fredrik Albertson

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Discussions on Disposal Forms of Auxiliary Heat Source in Surface Water Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper presents two common forms of auxiliary heat source in surface water heat pump system and puts forward the idea that the disposal forms affect operation cost. It deduces operation cost per hour of the two forms. With a project...

Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.; Li, G.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Thermal Economic Analysis of an Underground Water Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper presents the thermal economic analysis of an underground water source heat pump system in a high school building based on usage per exergy cost as an evaluation standard, in which the black box model has been used and the cost...

Zhang, W.; Lin, B.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Sources of CO and UHC Emissions in Low-Temperature Diesel Combustion Systems  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

The sources of unburned hydrocarbons and CO emissions from a PCI-like, early-injection low-temperature combustion system are examined through a combination of homogeneous reactor modeling employing detailed kinetics, multi-dimensional modeling using a reduced kinetic scheme, engine-out emissions measurements, and in-cylinder imaging of the spatial distributions of UHC and CO.

273

Source and mobility of Rare Earth Elements in a sedimentary aquifer system: Aquitaine basin (Southern France)  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Source and mobility of Rare Earth Elements in a sedimentary aquifer system: Aquitaine basin Geological Survey Service, Bordeaux, France, e.malcuit@brgm.fr The study of rare earth elements (REEs such as rivers and lakes and groundwaters. Rare earth elements) are of great interest because of their unique

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

274

A Novel Integrated Frozen Soil Thermal Energy Storage and Ground-Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper, a novel integrated frozen soil thermal energy storage and ground-source heat pump (IFSTS&GSHP) system in which the GHE can act as both cold thermal energy storage device and heat exchanger for GSHP is first presented. The IFSTS...

Jiang, Y.; Yao, Y.; Rong, L.; Ma, Z.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Characteristics of elliptical sources in BEAMnrc Monte Carlo system: Implementation and application  

SciTech Connect

Recently, several papers noticed that the electron focal spot of a linear accelerator (linac) could be elliptical which would cause dosimetric discrepancies between measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. To resolve the mismatch, two elliptical source models were developed in BEAMnrc code. The first was a parallel beam elliptical source with uniform distribution where the shape of the source was primarily considered. The other was a parallel beam elliptical source with Gaussian distribution whose source distribution follows the normal distribution. To validate the elliptical source models, uniform and Gaussian electron beams were impinged on a thin air target. Both models successfully reproduced the elliptical shapes and source distributions. Then, this study investigated the characteristics of the elliptical Gaussian source for a 6 MV photon beam in a Varian 21EX linac. The linac head model was implemented in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system and commissioned by comparing the lateral and depth dose profiles to the ion chamber measurements acquired from the annual quality assurance (QA). It was found that the circular Gaussian beam with 6 MeV/0.2 cm full width half maximum (FWHM) produces the best matches to the QA data. To explore the characteristics of the elliptical Gaussian source, this study employed an elliptical Gaussian electron source with 0.1 cm FWHM in the x axis and 0.2 cm FWHM in the y axis which was incident on the target of the linac head. Two circular Gaussian beams with 0.1 and 0.2 cm FWHM were employed to compare the differences between circular and elliptical sources. For all the sources, planar and energy fluences were acquired and analyzed. This study also compared the lateral and depth dose profiles in a water phantom by using a DOSXYZnrc user code. In results, a constricted shoulder effect was observed in both planar and energy fluence plots when the FWHM value was increased and the field size is larger than 30x30 cm{sup 2}. The same effect was also noticed in the lateral dose profiles, while the depth dose profile did not vary much.

Kim, Sangroh [Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States)

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

279

Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options  

SciTech Connect

Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these options. Conclusions Natural gas utilization as the primary heat source for district heat production implies environmental complications beyond just the global warming impacts. Diffusing renewable energy sources for generating the base load district heat would reduce human toxicity, ecosystem quality degradation, global warming, and resource depletion compared to the case of natural gas. Reducing fossil fuel dependency in various stages of wood pellet production can remarkably reduce the upstream global warming impact of using wood pellets for district heat generation.

Ghafghazi, Saeed [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sowlati, T. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Melin, Staffan [Delta Research Corporation

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

282

Hot gas defrosting method for air-source transcritical CO2 heat pump systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract When the air-source heat pump systems operate at low ambient temperatures in winter, frost forms on the coil surface of the outdoor evaporators. The frost substantially affects the operating performance and energy efficiency of heat pump systems, and hence periodic defrosting is essential. In this study, several defrost methods are presented to look for a candidate for air-source transcritical CO2 heat pump systems. The hot gas method proves to be more suitable among other defrosting methods for transcritical CO2 heat pump systems. To validate its reliability and rationality, an air-source transcritical CO2 heat pump water heater was built in a climatic laboratory. Through the experiments, the dynamic process of temperature and pressure were obtained to demonstrate the hot gas defrosting characteristics and system cycle. The hot gas defrosting cycle in the p–h diagram was also validated by experiment results. Meanwhile, instant defrosting images were captured to record the dynamic defrosting process. The defrosting process lasted 10 min and defrosting efficiency was 34.8% for hot gas defrosting method. The effectiveness and applicability of hot gas defrosting method for CO2 heat pump water heater is validated by experiments.

Bin Hu; Dongfang Yang; Feng Cao; Ziwen Xing; Jiyou Fei

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Quantum key distribution system in standard telecommunications fiber using a short wavelength single-photon source  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A demonstration of the principles of quantum key distribution is performed using a single-photon source in a proof of concept test-bed over a distance of 2 km in standard telecommunications optical fiber. The single-photon source was an optically-pumped quantum dot in a microcavity emitting at a wavelength of 895 nm. Characterization of the quantum key distribution parameters was performed at a range of different optical excitation powers. An investigation of the effect of varying the optical excitation power of the quantum dot microcavity on the quantum bit error rate and cryptographic key exchange rate of the system are presented.

R. J. Collins; P. J. Clarke; V. Fernandez; K. J. Gordon; M. N. Makhonin; J. A. Timpson; A. Tahraoui; M. Hopkinson; A. M. Fox; M. S. Skolnick; G. S. Buller

2010-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

284

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

285

Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)  

SciTech Connect

This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

Not Available

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Personnel Safety System for the beamlines at the Advanced Photon Source  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Personnel Safety System (PSS) at the Advanced Photon Source is a high reliability fail?safe redundant engineered safety system that provides personnel access control to prevent inadvertent entry into experimental stations when hazardous radiation conditions exist and warns personnel of changes in safe operating conditions inside these stations. Single fault tolerant access control is provided by two independent interlock ‘‘chains’’ implemented via programmable logic controllers (PLCs). Reduction of common mode failures is accomplished by different hardware and software platforms for the two chains. The system design is presented.

J. Hawkins; C. Seaver; J. Stein; J. Stoffel; N. Friedman

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Evaluation of White Light Sources For an Absolute Fiber Optic Sensor Readout System  

SciTech Connect

This report summarizes work done in pursuit of an absolute readout system for Fabry-Perot optics sensors such as those built both by FISO and LLNL. The use of white light results in a short coherence length reducing the ambiguity of the Fabry-Perot gap measurement which is required to readout the sensor. The light source coherence length is the critical parameter in determining the ability to build a relative or an absolute system. Optical sources such as lasers and LEDs are rather narrow in optical spectral bandwidth and have long coherence length. Thus, when used in interferometric sensor measurements, one fringe looks much like another and it is difficult to make an absolute measurement. In contrast, white light sources are much broader in spectral bandwidth and have very short coherence lengths making interferometry possible only over the coherence length, which can be 1 or 2 microns. The small number of fringes in the interferogram make it easier to calculate the centroid and to unambiguously determine the sensor gap. However, unlike LEDs and Lasers, white light sources have very low optical power when coupled into optical fibers. Although, the overall light output of a white light source can be hundreds of milliwatts to watts, it is difficult to couple more than microwatts into a 50-micron core optical fiber. In addition, white light sources have a large amount of optical power in spectrum that is not necessarily useful in terms of sensor measurements. The reflectivity of a quarter wave of Titanium Oxide is depicted in Figure 2. This coating of Titanium Oxide is used in the fabrication of the sensor. This figure shows that any light emitted at wavelengths shorter than 600 nm is not too useful for the readout system. A white light LED spectrum is depicted in Figure 3 and shows much of the spectrum below 600 nm. In addition Silicon photodiodes are usually used in the readout system limiting the longest wavelength to about 1100 nm. Tungsten filament sources may have much of their optical power at wavelengths longer than 1100 nm, which is outside the wavelength range of interest. An incandescent spectrum from a tungsten filament is depicted in Figure 4. None of this is to say that other types of readout systems couldn't be built with IR detectors and broadband coatings for the sensors. However, without reengineering the sensors, the wavelength restrictions must be tolerated.

McConaghy, C F

2003-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

288

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

289

Variational Assimilation for Xenon Dynamical Forecasts in Neutronic using Advanced Background Error Covariance Matrix  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal-hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Ponçot, Angélique; Bouriquet, Bertrand; Erhard, Patrick; Gratton, Serge; Thual, Olivier

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Variational assimilation for xenon dynamical forecasts in neutronic using advanced background error covariance matrix modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of error covariance matrices. Our purpose here is to evaluate the efficiency of variational data assimilation for the xenon induced oscillations forecasts in nuclear cores. In this paper we focus on the comparison between 3DVAR schemes with optimised background error covariance matrix B and a 4DVAR scheme. Tests were made in twin experiments using a simulation code which implements a mono-dimensional coupled model of xenon dynamics, thermal, and thermal–hydraulic processes. We enlighten the very good efficiency of the 4DVAR scheme as well as good results with the 3DVAR one using a careful multivariate modelling of B.

Angélique Ponçot; Jean-Philippe Argaud; Bertrand Bouriquet; Patrick Erhard; Serge Gratton; Olivier Thual

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

293

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

294

Feasibility of combined solar thermal and ground source heat pump systems in cold climate, Canada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This document presents a study for examining the viability of hybrid ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems that use solar thermal collectors as the supplemental component in heating dominated buildings. Loads for an actual house in the City of Milton near Toronto, Canada, were estimated. TRNSYS, a system simulation software tool, was used to model yearly performance of a conventional GSHP system as well as a proposed hybrid GSHP system. Actual yearly data collected from the site were examined against the simulation results. This study demonstrates that hybrid ground source heat pump system combined with solar thermal collectors is a feasible choice for space conditioning for heating dominated houses. It was shown that the solar thermal energy storage in the ground could reduce a large amount of ground heat exchanger (GHX) length. Combining three solar thermal collectors with a total area of 6.81 m2 to a GSHP system will reduce GHX length by 15%. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for different cities of Canada and resulted that Vancouver, with mildest climate compared to other cities, was the best candidate for the proposed solar hybrid GSHP system with a GHX length reduction to solar collector area ratio of 7.64 m/m2. Overall system economic viability was also evaluated using a 20-year life-cycle cost analysis. The analysis showed that there is small economic benefit in comparing to the conventional GSHP system. The net present value of the proposed hybrid system based on the 20-year life-cycle cost analysis was estimated to be in a range of 3.7%–7.6% (or $1500 to $3430 Canadian dollar) lower than the conventional GSHP system depending on the drilling cost.

Farzin M. Rad; Alan S. Fung; Wey H. Leong

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigeranttheir superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerantfew studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

297

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

299

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

300

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

302

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

303

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

304

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

306

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

307

Discussion of an Optimization Scheme for the Ground Source Heat Pump System of HVAC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ICEBO2006, Shenzhen, China Renewable Energy Resources and a Greener Future Vol.VIII-13-3 Discussion of an Optimization Scheme for the Ground Source Heat Pump System of HVAC Wei Mu Suilin Wang Shuyuan Pan Yongzheng Shi Master Student... the Jurisdiction of Beijing Municipality (BJE10016200511). REFERENCES [1]Rongguang Wang,Yufeng Zhang,Yang,Xiaotong Zheng. Study on Direct Use Of Geothermal Energy For Heating And Its Energy Efficency Effects [J]. ACTA ENERGIAE SOLARIS SINICA, 2002, 23...

Mu, W.; Wang, S.; Pan, S.; Shi, Y.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Development and evaluation of a 27 MHz multielectrode current-source interstitial hyperthermia system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Hyperthermia is a cancer therapy which is mostly applied in combination with radiotherapy. The aim of hyperthermia is to increase tumortemperatures to 40?°C?45?°C. One of the heating techniques that has been developed to be combined with afterloading interstitial radiotherapy (IRT) is 27 MHz current-source interstitial hyperthermia (IHT). A four-channel version of a current-source IHT system had been developed to study the effectiveness of interstitial hyperthermia in combination with IRT in tumors growing in the flank of a rat. Temperatures up to 46?°C at the edges of various solid tumors with volumes in the range 1500–2000 mm 3 are easily reached within 4–10 min. Furthermore in a collaboration between the University Hospital Utrecht and the Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center in Rotterdam a multielectrode current-source (MECS) IHT-system for clinical use has been developed. Basically this system consists of three units. First the actual heating system including a 27 MHz electromagnetic power unit and multielectrode applicators. Second a 196-channel thermometry system with manganin–constantan thermcouple thermometers. Third a computer plus treatment control software that provides the connection between the first two units and the operator. The power unit has 2 groups of 32 channels with opposite phase. The power can be controlled separately for each channel. Temperatures are measured with seven-point thermocouple probes inside applicators or inside extra nonheating catheters. The performance of the MECS-IHT system was examined focusing on the efficiency of the power deposition in tissue the homogeneity of the temperature distribution and on thermometry accuracy.

Robert S. J. P. Kaatee

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

STUDY OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

STUDY OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS Dissertation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3.5.3 Air Side Heat Transfer Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.5.4 Fluid Side Heat

310

Reliability evaluation of electric power generation systems including unconventional energy sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Used in Case Study Table 5. Interstate Transition Rates of Units in Base System Table 6. Comparison of LOLE Results for January 1982 Table 7. Comparison of LOLE Results for July 1982 . Table 8. Comparison of Frequency Results for January 1982... Table 9. Comparison of Frequency Results for July 1982 Table 10. Comparison of CPU secs Used by III and IV 27 36 50 52 55 55 56 56 57 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1. 1 Alternative Energy Sources In recent years, the escalation in the cost...

Lago-Gonzalez, Alex

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

312

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design  

SciTech Connect

The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

Jurns, John M. [European Spallation Source ESS AB, P.O. Box 176, 221 00 Lund (Sweden); Bäck, Harald [Sweco Industry AB, P.O. Box 286, 201 22 Malmö (Sweden); Gierow, Martin [Lunds Energikoncernen AB, P.O. Box 25, 221 00 Lund (Sweden)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

314

Heating and cooling performance analysis of a ground source heat pump system in Southern Germany  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper examines thermal performance of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system. The GSHP system was installed in an office building in Nuremberg city of Germany. In order to evaluate system performance the GSHP system has been continuously monitored for 4 years. Heating and cooling performance of the GSHP system is analyzed based on the accumulated data. Major findings of this work include: (1) coefficient of performance (COP) is estimated to be 3.9 for a typical winter day and energy efficiency ratio (EER) is assessed to be 8.0 for a typical summer day. These results indicate that the GSHP system has a higher efficiency for building cooling than building heating. (2) For a long-term period, the seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) of the GSHP system is observed to increase by 8.7% annually, whereas the seasonal COP is decreased by 4.0% over a 4-year period. The heating and cooling performance of the GSHP system migrates in opposite trend is caused by the unevenly distributed heating and cooling load of the building. This phenomenon deserves serious attention in the design of future GSHP systems in order to avoid the reducing of energy efficiency over long-term operation.

Jin Luo; Joachim Rohn; Manfred Bayer; Anna Priess; Lucas Wilkmann; Wei Xiang

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Comparison between single- and dual-electrode ion source systems for low-energy ion transport  

SciTech Connect

Extraction of ions with energies below 100 eV has been demonstrated using a hot-cathode multi-cusp ion source equipped with extraction electrodes made of thin wires. Two electrode geometries, a single-electrode system, and a dual-electrode system were built and tested. The single-electrode configuration showed high ion beam current densities at shorter distances from the electrode but exhibited rapid attenuation as the distance from the electrode increased. Beam angular spread measurements showed similar beam divergence for both electrode configurations at low plasma densities. At high plasma densities and low extraction potentials, the single-electrode system showed the angular spread twice as large as that of the dual-electrode system. Energy distribution analyses showed a broader energy spread for ion beams extracted from a single-electrode set-up.

Vasquez, M. Jr.; Tokumura, S.; Kasuya, T.; Maeno, S.; Wada, M. [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-321 and Nissin Ion Equipment Co., Ltd. 575 Kuze Tonoshiro-cho, Minami-ku, Kyoto 601-8205 (Japan); Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-321 (Japan); Novelion Systems Co.Ltd., D-Egg, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-332 (Japan); Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-321 (Japan)

2012-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

316

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project “Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas”. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90 min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

An adaptive load dispatching and forecasting strategy for a virtual power plant including renewable energy conversion units  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The increasing awareness on the risky state of conventional energy sources in terms of future energy supply security and health of environment has promoted the research activities on alternative energy systems. However, due to the fact that the power production of main alternative sources such as wind and solar is directly related with meteorological conditions, these sources should be combined with dispatchable energy sources in a hybrid combination in order to ensure security of demand supply. In this study, the evaluation of such a hybrid system consisting of wind, solar, hydrogen and thermal power systems in the concept of virtual power plant strategy is realized. An economic operation-based load dispatching strategy that can interactively adapt to the real measured wind and solar power production values is proposed. The adaptation of the load dispatching algorithm is provided by the update mechanism employed in the meteorological condition forecasting algorithms provided by the combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition, Cascade-Forward Neural Network and Linear Model through a fusion strategy. Thus, the effects of the stochastic nature of solar and wind energy systems are better overcome in order to participate in the electricity market with higher benefits.

A. Tascikaraoglu; O. Erdinc; M. Uzunoglu; A. Karakas

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Low-Level Radio Frequency System Development for the National Synchrotron Light Source II  

SciTech Connect

The National Synchrotron Light Source-II (NSLS-II) is a new ultra-bright 3GeV 3rd generation synchrotron radiation light source. The performance goals require operation with a beam current of 500mA and a bunch current of at least 0.5mA. The position and timing specifications of the ultra-bright photon beam imposes a set of stringent requirements on the performance of radio frequency (RF) control. In addition, commissioning and staged installation of damping wigglers and insertion devices requires the flexibility of handling varying beam conditions. To meet these requirements, a digital implementation of the LLRF is chosen, and digital serial links are planned for the system integration. The first prototype of the controller front-end hardware has been built, and is currently being tested.

Ma,H.; Rose, J.

2009-05-04T23:59:59.000Z

320

A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealed housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. An infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable's motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.

Banks, T I; Wallig, J; Ybarrolaza, N; Gando, A; Gando, Y; Ikeda, H; Inoue, K; Kishimoto, Y; Koga, M; Mitsui, T; Nakamura, K; Shimizu, I; Shirai, J; Suzuki, A; Takemoto, Y; Tamae, K; Ueshima, K; Watanabe, H; Xu, B D; Yoshida, H; Yoshida, S; Kozlov, A; Grant, C; Keefer, G; Piepke, A; Bloxham, T; Fujikawa, B K; Han, K; Ichimura, K; Murayama, H; O'Donnell, T; Steiner, H M; Winslow, L A; Dwyer, D A; McKeown, R D; Zhang, C; Berger, B E; Lane, C E; Maricic, J; Miletic, T; Batygov, M; Learned, J G; Matsuno, S; Sakai, M; Horton-Smith, G A; Downum, K E; Gratta, G; Efremenko, Y; Perevozchikov, O; Karwowski, H J; Markoff, D M; Tornow, W; Heeger, K M; Detwiler, J A; Enomoto, S; Decowski, M P

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

Musick, Charles R. (Castro Valley, CA); Critchlow, Terence (Livermore, CA); Ganesh, Madhaven (San Jose, CA); Slezak, Tom (Livermore, CA); Fidelis, Krzysztof (Brentwood, CA)

2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

322

Organic Rankine Cycle System Preliminary Design with Corn Cob Biomass Waste Burning as Heat Source  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The renewable energy source potencies in Indonesia are needed to be utilized to fulfill the electricity requirement in rural or remote area that not yet get electricity. One of the potency is biomass waste. Therefore, this paper discusses about the electricity generation preliminary design of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system with corn cob biomass waste burning as heat source, so it can be obtained the theoretic corn farm area requirement, electricity power, and thermal efficiency at heat source temperature and flow rate variations. Corn cob burning temperature can heat up the heating fluid that is heated by boiler with corn cob as the biomass fuel. Furthermore, that heating fluid is used as ORC electricity generation heat source. The independent variables in this study are the heating fluid temperature which varied between 110, 120, and 130oC, and the heating fluid flow rate that varied between 100, 150, and 200 liter/minute. \\{R141b\\} is selected to be the working fluid, palm oil is used for heating fluid and water as cooling fluid. The calculation results that the theoretic electricity power, thermal efficiency, and corn farm area requirement, respectively, are in the range of 3.5-8.5 kW, 9.2-10.3%, and 49.5-101.1 hectare/year. All of the highest range values are resulted at the highest temperature and flow rate, 130oC and 200 liter/minute. This result shows that corn cob burning heat is potential to be utilized as electricity generation heat source for rural society, particularly for some areas that have been studied.

Nur Rohmah; Ghalya Pikra; Agus Salim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building Na Zhu*, Yu Lei, Pingfang Hu, Linghong Xu, Zhangning Jiang Department of Building Environment and Equipment Engineering... heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage technology could save energy and shift peak load. This paper studied the optimal design of a ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change thermal storage tank in an office...

Zhu, N.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

327

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

328

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

329

MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage iterations. We demonstrate our method in simulations with various wind scenarios and prices for energy. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

330

DEVELOPMENT OF THE CRYOGENIC HYDROGEN SYSTEM FOR A SPALLATION NEUTRTON SOURCE IN J-PARC  

SciTech Connect

An intense spallation neutron source (JSNS) driven by a proton beam of 1-MW has been constructed as one of the main experimental facilities in J-PARC. Supercritical hydrogen at around 20 K and 1.5 MPa was selected as a moderator material in JSNS. Three kinds of hydrogen moderators (coupled, decoupled, and poisoned) were installed to provide pulsed neutron beam of higher neutronic performance. The total nuclear heating in the moderators was estimated to be 3.75 kW for a proton beam power of 1 MW. The cryogenic hydrogen system, where the hydrogen circulation system is cooled by a helium refrigerator system with the refrigerator capacity of 6.45 kW at 15.6 K, provides the supercritical hydrogen for the moderators and absorbs nuclear heating in the moderators. The off-beam commissioning has confirmed that the cryogenic hydrogen system can be cooled down to 18 K within 19 hours. The supercritical hydrogen with a mass flow rate of 190 g/s can be circulated in the rated condition. It was verified that the cryogenic hydrogen system satisfied the performance requirements. The first cold neutron beam cooled by the cryogenic hydrogen system was successfully generated in May 2008.

Tatsumoto, H.; Aso, T.; Ohtsu, K.; Uehara, T.; Sakurayama, H.; Kawakami, Y.; Kato, T.; Futakawa, M. [J-PARC Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan)

2010-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

331

Primordial Black Holes as Heat Sources for Living Systems with Longest Possible Lifetimes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Just forty years ago, Hawking wrote his famous paper on primordial black holes (PBH). There have been since innumerable discussions on the consequences of the existence of such exotic objects and ramifications of their properties. Here we suggest that PBH's in an ever expanding universe (as implied by dark energy domination, especially of a cosmological constant) could be the ultimate repository for long lived living systems. PBH's having solar surface temperatures would last 10^32 years as a steady power source and should be considered in any discussion on exobiological life.

C Sivaram; Kenath Arun; Kiren O V

2014-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

332

Primordial Black Holes as Heat Sources for Living Systems with Longest Possible Lifetimes  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Just forty years ago, Hawking wrote his famous paper on primordial black holes (PBH). There have been since innumerable discussions on the consequences of the existence of such exotic objects and ramifications of their properties. Here we suggest that PBH's in an ever expanding universe (as implied by dark energy domination, especially of a cosmological constant) could be the ultimate repository for long lived living systems. PBH's having solar surface temperatures would last 10^32 years as a steady power source and should be considered in any discussion on exobiological life.

Sivaram, C; O, Kiren

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Source-term release formulations  

SciTech Connect

This report is one of a series of reports that document the mathematical models in the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). Developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, MEPAS is an integrated impact assessment software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models in air, soil, and water media. Outputs are estimates of exposures and health risk assessments for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. Each of the MEPAS formulation documents covers a major MEPAS component such as source-term, atmospheric, vadose zone/groundwater, surface water, and health exposure/health impact assessment. Other MEPAS documentation reports cover the sensitivity/uncertainty formulations and the database parameter constituent property estimation methods. The pollutant source-term release component is documented in this report. MEPAS simulates the release of contaminants from a source, transport through the air, groundwater, surface water, or overland pathways, and transfer through food chains and exposure pathways to the exposed individual or population. For human health impacts, risks are computed for carcinogens and hazard quotients for noncarcinogens. MEPAS is implemented on a desktop computer with a user-friendly interface that allows the user to define the problem, input the required data, and execute the appropriate models for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses.

Streile, G.P.; Shields, K.D.; Stroh, J.L.; Bagaasen, L.M.; Whelan, G.; McDonald, J.P.; Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.  

SciTech Connect

The impact associated with energy generation and utilization is immeasurable due to the immense, widespread, and myriad effects it has on the world and its inhabitants. The polar extremes are demonstrated on the one hand, by the high quality of life enjoyed by individuals with access to abundant reliable energy sources, and on the other hand by the global-scale environmental degradation attributed to the affects of energy production and use. Thus, nations strive to increase their energy generation, but are faced with the challenge of doing so with a minimal impact on the environment and in a manner that is self-reliant. Consequently, a revival of interest in nuclear energy has followed, with much focus placed on technologies for transmuting nuclear spent fuel. The performed research investigates nuclear energy systems that optimize the destruction of nuclear waste. In the context of this effort, nuclear energy system is defined as a configuration of nuclear reactors and corresponding fuel cycle components. The proposed system has unique characteristics that set it apart from other systems. Most notably the dedicated High-Energy External Source Transmuter (HEST), which is envisioned as an advanced incinerator used in combination with thermal reactors. The system is configured for examining environmentally benign fuel cycle options by focusing on minimization or elimination of high level waste inventories. Detailed high-fidelity exact-geometry models were developed for representative reactor configurations. They were used in preliminary calculations with Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtented (MCNPX) and Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code systems. The reactor models have been benchmarked against existing experimental data and design data. Simulink{reg_sign}, an extension of MATLAB{reg_sign}, is envisioned as the interface environment for constructing the nuclear energy system model by linking the individual reactor and fuel component sub-models for overall analysis of the system. It also provides control over key user input parameters and the ability to effectively consolidate vital output results for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and optimization procedures. The preliminary analysis has shown promising advanced fuel cycle scenarios that include Pressure Water Reactors Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs) and dedicated HEST waste incineration facilities. If deployed, these scenarios may substantially reduce nuclear waste inventories approaching environmentally benign nuclear energy system characteristics. Additionally, a spent fuel database of the isotopic compositions for multiple design and control parameters has been created for the VHTR-HEST input fuel streams. Computational approaches, analysis metrics, and benchmark strategies have been established for future detailed studies.

Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rochau, Gary Eugene

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

A novel off-grid hybrid power system comprised of solar photovoltaic, wind, and hydro energy sources  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Several factors must be considered before adopting a full-phase power generation system based on renewable energy sources. Long-term necessary data (for one year if possible) should be collected before making any decisions concerning implementation of such a systems. To accurately assess the potential of available resources, we measured solar irradiation, wind speed, and ambient temperature at two high-altitude locations in Nepal: the Lama Hotel in Rasuwa District and Thingan in Makawanpur District. Here, we propose two practical, economical hybridization methods for small off-grid systems consisting entirely of renewable energy sources—specifically solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and micro-hydro sources. One of the methods was tested experimentally, and the results can be applied to help achieve Millennium Development Goal 7: Ensuring environmental sustainability. Hydro, wind, and solar photovoltaic energy are the top renewable energy sources in terms of globally installed capacity. However, no reports have been published about off-grid hybrid systems comprised of all three sources, making this implementation the first of its kind anywhere. This research may be applied as a practical guide for implementing similar systems in various locations. Of the four off-grid PV systems installed by the authors for village electrification in Nepal, one was further hybridized with wind and hydro power sources. This paper presents a novel approach for connecting renewable energy sources to a utility mini-grid.

Binayak Bhandari; Kyung-Tae Lee; Caroline Sunyong Lee; Chul-Ki Song; Ramesh K. Maskey; Sung-Hoon Ahn

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

339

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

340

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

342

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

344

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

346

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

349

Global search tool for the Advanced Photon Source Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) database.  

SciTech Connect

The Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) is a relational database tool that has been implemented at the Advanced Photon Source to maintain an updated account of approximately 600 control system software applications, 400,000 process variables, and 30,000 control system hardware components. To effectively display this large amount of control system information to operators and engineers, IRMIS was initially built with nine Web-based viewers: Applications Organizing Index, IOC, PLC, Component Type, Installed Components, Network, Controls Spares, Process Variables, and Cables. However, since each viewer is designed to provide details from only one major category of the control system, the necessity for a one-stop global search tool for the entire database became apparent. The user requirements for extremely fast database search time and ease of navigation through search results led to the choice of Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX) technology in the implementation of the IRMIS global search tool. Unique features of the global search tool include a two-tier level of displayed search results, and a database data integrity validation and reporting mechanism.

Quock, D. E. R.; Cianciarulo, M. B.; APS Engineering Support Division; Purdue Univ.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Modelling elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the \\{OSeMOSYS\\} (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

‘Smart Grids’ are expected to help facilitate a better integration of distributed storage and demand response options into power systems and markets. Quantifying the associated system benefits may provide valuable design and policy insights. Yet many existing energy system models are not able to depict various critical features associated with Smart Grids in a single comprehensive framework. These features may for example include grid stability issues in a system with several flexible demand types and storage options to help balance a high penetration of renewable energy. Flexible and accessible tools have the potential to fill this niche. This paper expands on the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). It describes how ‘blocks of functionality’ may be added to represent variability in electricity generation, a prioritisation of demand types, shifting demand, and storage options. The paper demonstrates the flexibility and ease-of-use of \\{OSeMOSYS\\} with regard to modifications of its code. It may therefore serve as a useful test-bed for new functionality in tools with wide-spread use and larger applications, such as MESSAGE, TIMES, MARKAL, or LEAP. As with the core code of OSeMOSYS, the functional blocks described in this paper are available in the public domain.

M. Welsch; M. Howells; M. Bazilian; J.F. DeCarolis; S. Hermann; H.H. Rogner

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Photostimulated phosphor based image plate detection system for HRVUV beamline at Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A high resolution vacuum ultraviolet (HRVUV) beamline based on a 6.65 meter off-plane Eagle spectrometer is in operation at the Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source, RRCAT, Indore, India. To facilitate position sensitive detection and fast spectral recording, a new BaFBr:Eu2+ phosphor based image plate (IP) detection system interchangeable with the existing photomultiplier (PMT) scanning system has been installed on this beamline. VUV photoabsorption studies on Xe, O2, N2O and SO2 are carried out to evaluate the performance of the IP detection system. An FWHM of ~ 0.5 {\\AA} is achieved for the Xe atomic line at 1469.6 {\\AA}. Reproducibility of spectra is found to be within the experimental resolution. Compared to the PMT scanning system, the IP shows several advantages in terms of sensitivity, recording time and S/N ratio, which are highlighted in the paper. This is the first report of incorporation of an IP detection system in a VUV beamline using synchrotron radiation. Commissioning of the new detection sys...

Haris, K; Shastri, Aparna; K., Sunanda; K., Babita; Rao, S V N Bhaskara; Ahmad, Shabbir; Tauheed, A

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Design optimization of a fuzzy distributed generation (DG) system with multiple renewable energy sources  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The global rise in energy demands brings major obstacles to many energy organizations in providing adequate energy supply. Hence many techniques to generate cost effective reliable and environmentally friendly alternative energy source are being explored. One such method is the integration of photovoltaic cells wind turbine generators and fuel-based generators included with storage batteries. This sort of power systems are known as distributed generation (DG) power system. However the application of DG power systems raise certain issues such as cost effectiveness environmental impact and reliability. The modelling as well as the optimization of this DG power system was successfully performed in the previous work using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The central idea of that work was to minimize cost minimize emissions and maximize reliability (multi-objective (MO) setting) with respect to the power balance and design requirements. In this work we introduce a fuzzy model that takes into account the uncertain nature of certain variables in the DG system which are dependent on the weather conditions (such as; the insolation and wind speed profiles). The MO optimization in a fuzzy environment was performed by applying the Hopfield Recurrent Neural Network (HNN). Analysis on the optimized results was then carried out.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Active source requirements for assay of sludge drums on the BIR WIT system  

SciTech Connect

The design of the active source for active and passive computed tomography (A&PCT) is critical with respect to accuracy and throughput. The A&PCT active source requirements are highly dependent upon the attenuation properties of the waste matrix within the drum. On of the most highly attenuating waste matrices is sludge. This waste stream will consist of solidified aqueous waste consisting of IDC 001 first stage sludge and IDC 007 wet sludge. Also, the stream consists of solidified organic waste known as code IDC 003 organic setups. We have evaluated the sludge drum data that was previously acquired on the WIT system and have determined that the active source activity must be increased to provide reasonable throughput. The sludge drum that is evaluated here is drum CEPRF11. CEPRF11 is a test drum that was part of the Nondestructive Assay system Capability Evaluation Project (CEP) and contained an actual Rocky Flats waste that is categorized as code 003 solidified organic waste. The full drum was evaluated and found to be somewhat homogenous; therefore, a single slice is arbitrarily chosen to represent the entire drum. Slice number 8 is used and is located approximately at the center of the drum. Figure 1 shows the averaged projections for different energies derived from the active sinogram of slice number 8 from the CEPRF11 drum. This is the average of all the projections of slice 8 taken over 180 degrees with an active integration time of 6 seconds. Figure 2 is also a graph showing the average of all the projections for slice 8; however, the active integration time is 30 seconds.

Roberson, G.P.; Camp, D.C.

1998-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

354

Design and dosimetric characteristics of a new endocavitary contact radiotherapy system using an electronic brachytherapy source  

SciTech Connect

Purpose: To present design aspects and acceptance tests performed for clinical implementation of electronic brachytherapy treatment of early stage rectal adenocarcinoma. A dosimetric comparison is made between the historically used Philips RT-50 unit and the newly developed Axxent{sup Registered-Sign} Model S700 electronic brachytherapy source manufactured by Xoft (iCad, Inc.). Methods: Two proctoscope cones were manufactured by ElectroSurgical Instruments (ESI). Two custom surface applicators were manufactured by Xoft and were designed to fit and interlock with the proctoscope cones from ESI. Dose rates, half value layers (HVL), and percentage depth dose (PDD) measurements were made with the Xoft system and compared to historical RT-50 data. A description of the patient treatment approach and exposure rates during the procedure is also provided. Results: The electronic brachytherapy system has a lower surface dose rate than the RT-50. The dose rate to water on the surface from the Xoft system is approximately 2.1 Gy/min while the RT-50 is 10-12 Gy/min. However, treatment times with Xoft are still reasonable. The HVLs and PDDs between the two systems were comparable resulting in similar doses to the target and to regions beyond the target. The exposure rate levels around a patient treatment were acceptable. The standard uncertainty in the dose rate to water on the surface is approximately {+-}5.2%. Conclusions: The Philips RT-50 unit is an out-of-date radiotherapy machine that is no longer manufactured with limited replacement parts. The use of a custom-designed proctoscope and Xoft surface applicators allows delivery of a well-established treatment with the ease of a modern radiotherapy device. While the dose rate is lower with the use of Xoft, the treatment times are still reasonable. Additionally, personnel may stand farther away from the Xoft radiation source, thus potentially reducing radiation exposure to the operator and other personnel.

Richardson, Susan; Garcia-Ramirez, Jose; Lu Wei; Myerson, Robert J.; Parikh, Parag [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 21201 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States)

2012-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

355

Intermittent experimental study of a vertical ground source heat pump system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, the intermittent experiment of a vertical ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is investigated and the corresponding geo-temperature variations are studied. The performance of the GSHP system under intermittent operation and the comparisons of different intermittent modes are presented in the paper. The parameters of soil backfill material, air temperature and inlet volume flow rate are also investigated. Experimental results suggest that, due to the recovery in ground thermal energy in intermittent time, the heat exchange rate and the operation performance coefficient (COP) of the heat pump increases, and the compressor power decreases in the successive working. But an insufficient soil recovery time leads to a rapid decline of the performance parameters and the soil temperature. The temperature transports faster under large soil thermal conductivity conditions and the soil temperature decreases more quickly and recovers more slowly with larger inlet flow rate and lower weather temperature for different soil thermal diffusivities. Through multiple nonlinear regression analysis, a curve formula can be fitted to predict the soil temperature variations under intermittent operation of the ground source heat pump in winter, Dalian. It can be found that the soil temperature increases at an exponential function with each factor.

Yan Shang; Ming Dong; Sufen Li

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

358

To Cope with the Uncertainity in Smart Energy Systems: Office Buildings as a Source for Energy Flexibility  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

systems at farms) will lead to a large amount of distributed and fluctuating (small) renewable energy sources throughout the grid, at homes, farms, and companies. The need of centralized electricity generation thus becomes more difficult to plan. This can...

Zieler, W.; Aduda, K.; Boxem, G.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Numerical Simulation of a Latent Heat Storage System of a Solar-Aided Ground Source Heat Pump  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this study, the rectangular phase change storage tank (PCST) linked to a solar-aided ground source heat pump (SAGSHP) system is investigated experimentally and theoretically. The container of the phase change material (PCM) is the controlling...

Wang, F.; Zheng, M.; Li, Z.; Lei, B.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Fluoride and Arsenic in an Alluvial Aquifer System in Chihuahua, Mexico: Contaminant Levels, Potential Sources, and Co-occurrence  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The objectives of this study were to identify potential sources of As and F within an alluvial aquifer system in central Chihuahua, to evaluate their change in concentrations with...?1, and 13 wells surpassed the...

Víctor M. Reyes-Gómez; María Teresa Alarcón-Herrera…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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361

Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing is an integral part of an ensemble prediction system. This study compares methods used to derive probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the high-resolution version of the German-focused Consortium ...

Sabrina Bentzien; Petra Friederichs

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source  

SciTech Connect

China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. (China)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

363

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

364

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report  

SciTech Connect

This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

Holzrichter, John F. (Berkeley, CA); Burnett, Greg C. (Livermore, CA); Ng, Lawrence C. (Danville, CA)

2007-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

367

The preliminary design of thermoelectric generation system using the fluid heat sources  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the preliminary design of a thermoelectric generation system using the fluid heat sources available as the waste heat of the phosphoric acid fuel cells. The thermoelectric generator consists of many thermoelectric generation units. For estimating the output performance of the thermoelectric generator, an equilibrium thermal circuit was derived from an analytic model of a thermoelectric generation unit. Based on the equivalent thermal circuit, the output performance at thermal equilibrium was calculated by iteration. In this paper, the output performance was estimated considering the cold side pumping power. The calculation was done by assuming a heat source temperature of about 450K on the hot side, about 310 K on the cold side, and 2,000kWth as heat exchange capacity. The electric power of the generator with a size of 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.4 (h) m{sup 3} was found to be about 70 kW and its power density, about 1.5 kW/m{sup 2} excepting the pumping power on the cold water side.

Hori, Y.; Ito, T. [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Yokosuka, Kanagawa (Japan)

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

368

Recent Performance of the SNS H- ion source and low-energy beam transport system  

SciTech Connect

Recent measurements of the H beam current show that SNS is injecting about 55 mA into the RFQ compared to 45 mA in 2010. Since 2010, the H beam exiting the RFQ dropped from 40 mA to 34 mA, which is sufficient for 1 MW of beam power. To minimize the impact of the RFQ degradation, the service cycle of the best performing source was extended to 6 weeks. The only degradation is fluctuations in the electron dump voltage towards the end of some service cycles, a problem that is being investigated. Very recently, the RFQ was retuned, which partly restored its transmission. In addition, the electrostatic low-energy beam transport system was reengineered to double its heat sinking and equipped with a thermocouple that monitors the temperature of the ground electrode between the two Einzel lenses. The recorded data show that emissions from the source at high voltage dominate the heat load. Emissions from the partly Cs-covered first lens cause the temperature to peak several hours after starting up. On rare occasions, the temperature can also peak due to corona discharges between the center ground electrode and one of the lenses.

Stockli, Martin P [ORNL] [ORNL; Ewald, Kerry D [ORNL] [ORNL; Han, Baoxi [ORNL] [ORNL; Murray Jr, S N [ORNL] [ORNL; Pennisi, Terry R [ORNL] [ORNL; Piller, Chip [ORNL] [ORNL; Santana, Manuel [ORNL] [ORNL; Tang, Johnny Y [ORNL] [ORNL; Welton, Robert F [ORNL] [ORNL

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Analysis of Selection of Single or Double U-bend Pipes in a Ground Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is widely used because of its energy-saving and environmental-friendly characteristics. The buried pipes heat exchangers play an important role in the whole GSHP system design. However, in most cases, single...

Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen sulfide  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184­191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This paper presents an examination of a simple hydrogen sulfide and natural gas-fed solid oxide fuel cell system. The possibility of utilization of hydrogen sulfide

371

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

372

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

373

Increasing the renewable energy sources absorption capacity of the Macedonian energy system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Macedonian energy sector is the main emitter of greenhouse gases with share of about 70% in the total annual emissions. Also 70%–75% of emissions are associated with the electricity generation due to the predominant role of the lignite fuelled power plants. Recently the government has adopted a strategy for the use of renewable energy sources (RES) which identifies a target of 21% of final energy consumption from RES by 2020. In this paper analyses are conducted in order to investigate to which extent and in which way the absorption capacity of the power system for RES electricity can be improved. For this purpose combining various conventional and RES technologies including pump storage hydro power plant and revitalisation of the existing lignite power plants six scenarios for the power system expansion are developed by making use of EnergyPLAN model. Critical excess of electricity analyses are conducted in order to identify the maximal penetration of wind electricity. The results have shown that in the exiting capacities maximal penetration of wind electricity in 2020 is 13% of total electricity consumption. The revitalization of the existing lignite power plants and building of pump storage power plant would increase the wind penetration. Furthermore the developed scenarios are comparatively assessed in terms of the associated greenhouse gases emissions and import of electricity.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

375

THE FIRST TARGET ION SOURCE SYSTEM FOR THE SPIRAL PROJECT: RESULTS OF THE ON LINE TESTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. This TISS is based on the coupling of a carbon external target with a permanent magnet ECR ion source called

Boyer, Edmond

376

Economical Analysis of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump with Water Thermal Storage System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The paper is based on a chilled and heat source for the building which has a total area of 140000m2 in the suburb of Beijing. By comparing the groundwater source heat pump of water thermal storage (GHPWTS) with a conventional chilled and heat source...

Zhou, Z.; Xu, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, J.; Niu, L.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

12-32021E2_Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

378

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

380

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

382

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers (EERE)

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

385

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

HEAT EXCHANGE AND WEATHER FORECASTING  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...energy into kinetic energy. In the scheme of...that the potential energy has to be re- stored...time, search for energy sources and sinks...earth's surfaces as a converter of radiation into...where K is the thermal diffusivity; in...the mobility of the ocean waters, we see that...

Sverre Petterssen

1959-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

389

Travel Time Forecasting Lyngby 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

part of a new real-time traffic reporting system. This system is in the pipeline in the framework steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 7.4 Data cleaning, repair and aggregation

390

,"Energy Source","State Energy Data System","Annual/Monthly Energy Review"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

A. Comparison of fuel detail for the State Energy Data System and the Annual and Monthly Energy Review data systems" A. Comparison of fuel detail for the State Energy Data System and the Annual and Monthly Energy Review data systems" ,"Energy Source","State Energy Data System","Annual/Monthly Energy Review" "Consumption Sector","Category","Fuel Detail","Fuel Detail" "Residential ","Coal","Coal","Coal" "Residential ","Natural Gas","Natural Gas","Natural Gas" "Residential ","Petroleum","Distillate Fuel","Distillate Fuel" "Residential ","Petroleum","Kerosene","Kerosene" "Residential ","Petroleum","LPG","LPG"

391

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

393

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

394

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

395

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

396

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

397

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

398

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

399

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998 - Residential Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND MODULE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND MODULE blueball.gif (205 bytes) Housing Stock Submodule blueball.gif (205 bytes) Appliance Stock Submodule blueball.gif (205 bytes) Technology Choice Submodule blueball.gif (205 bytes) Shell Integrity Submodule blueball.gif (205 bytes) Fuel Consumption Submodule The residential demand module (RDM) forecasts energy consumption by Census division for seven marketed energy sources plus solar thermal and geothermal energy. The RDM is a structural model and its forecasts are built up from projections of the residential housing stock and of the energy-consuming equipment contained therein. The components of the RDM and its interactions with the NEMS system are shown in Figure 5. NEMS provides forecasts of residential energy prices, population, and housing starts,

400

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for circular binary orbits, the upper limits obtained remain valid for orbital eccentricities as large as 0.9. In addition, upper limits are placed on continuous gravitational wave emission from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1 between 20 Hz and 57.25 Hz.

The LIGO Scientific Collaboration; the Virgo Collaboration; J. Aasi; B. P. Abbott; R. Abbott; T. Abbott; M. R. Abernathy; T. Accadia; F. Acernese; K. Ackley; C. Adams; T. Adams; P. Addesso; R. X. Adhikari; C. Affeldt; M. Agathos; N. Aggarwal; O. D. Aguiar; A. Ain; P. Ajith; A. Alemic; B. Allen; A. Allocca; D. Amariutei; M. Andersen; R. Anderson; S. B. Anderson; W. G. Anderson; K. Arai; M. C. Araya; C. Arceneaux; J. Areeda; S. M. Aston; P. Astone; P. Aufmuth; C. Aulbert; L. Austin; B. E. Aylott; S. Babak; P. T. Baker; G. Ballardin; S. W. Ballmer; J. C. Barayoga; M. Barbet; B. C. Barish; D. Barker; F. Barone; B. Barr; L. Barsotti; M. Barsuglia; M. A. Barton; I. Bartos; R. Bassiri; A. Basti; J. C. Batch; J. Bauchrowitz; Th. S. Bauer; B. Behnke; M. Bejger; M. G. Beker; C. Belczynski; A. S. Bell; C. Bell; G. Bergmann; D. Bersanetti; A. Bertolini; J. Betzwieser; P. T. Beyersdorf; I. A. Bilenko; G. Billingsley; J. Birch; S. Biscans; M. Bitossi; M. A. Bizouard; E. Black; J. K. Blackburn; L. Blackburn; D. Blair; S. Bloemen; M. Blom; O. Bock; T. P. Bodiya; M. Boer; G. Bogaert; C. Bogan; C. Bond; F. Bondu; L. Bonelli; R. Bonnand; R. Bork; M. Born; V. Boschi; Sukanta Bose; L. Bosi; C. Bradaschia; P. R. Brady; V. B. Braginsky; M. Branchesi; J. E. Brau; T. Briant; D. O. Bridges; A. Brillet; M. Brinkmann; V. Brisson; A. F. Brooks; D. A. Brown; D. D. Brown; F. Brückner; S. Buchman; T. Bulik; H. J. Bulten; A. Buonanno; R. Burman; D. Buskulic; C. Buy; L. Cadonati; G. Cagnoli; J. Calderón Bustillo; E. Calloni; J. B. Camp; P. Campsie; K. C. Cannon; B. Canuel; J. Cao; C. D. Capano; F. Carbognani; L. Carbone; S. Caride; A. Castiglia; S. Caudill; M. Cavaglià; F. Cavalier; R. Cavalieri; C. Celerier; G. Cella; C. Cepeda; E. Cesarini; R. Chakraborty; T. Chalermsongsak; S. J. Chamberlin; S. Chao; P. Charlton; E. Chassande-Mottin; X. Chen; Y. Chen; A. Chincarini; A. Chiummo; H. S. Cho; J. Chow; N. Christensen; Q. Chu; S. S. Y. Chua; S. Chung; G. Ciani; F. Clara; J. A. Clark; F. Cleva; E. Coccia; P. -F. Cohadon; A. Colla; C. Collette; M. Colombini; L. Cominsky; M. Constancio Jr.; A. Conte; D. Cook; T. R. Corbitt; M. Cordier; N. Cornish; A. Corpuz; A. Corsi; C. A. Costa; M. W. Coughlin; S. Coughlin; J. -P. Coulon; S. Countryman; P. Couvares; D. M. Coward; M. Cowart; D. C. Coyne; R. Coyne; K. Craig; J. D. E. Creighton; T. D. Creighton; S. G. Crowder; A. Cumming; L. Cunningham; E. Cuoco; K. Dahl; T. Dal Canton; M. Damjanic; S. L. Danilishin; S. D'Antonio; K. Danzmann; V. Dattilo; H. Daveloza; M. Davier; G. S. Davies; E. J. Daw; R. Day; T. Dayanga; G. Debreczeni; J. Degallaix; S. Deléglise; W. Del Pozzo; T. Denker; T. Dent; H. Dereli; V. Dergachev; R. De Rosa; R. T. DeRosa; R. DeSalvo; S. Dhurandhar; M. Díaz; L. Di Fiore; A. Di Lieto; I. Di Palma; A. Di Virgilio; A. Donath; F. Donovan; K. L. Dooley; S. Doravari; S. Dossa; R. Douglas; T. P. Downes; M. Drago; R. W. P. Drever; J. C. Driggers; Z. Du; S. Dwyer; T. Eberle; T. Edo; M. Edwards; A. Effler; H. Eggenstein; P. Ehrens; J. Eichholz; S. S. Eikenberry; G. Endr?czi; R. Essick; T. Etzel; M. Evans; T. Evans; M. Factourovich; V. Fafone; S. Fairhurst; Q. Fang; S. Farinon; B. Farr; W. M. Farr; M. Favata; H. Fehrmann; M. M. Fejer; D. Feldbaum; F. Feroz; I. Ferrante; F. Ferrini; F. Fidecaro; L. S. Finn; I. Fiori; R. P. Fisher; R. Flaminio; J. -D. Fournier; S. Franco; S. Frasca; F. Frasconi; M. Frede; Z. Frei; A. Freise; R. Frey; T. T. Fricke; P. Fritschel; V. V. Frolov; P. Fulda; M. Fyffe; J. Gair; L. Gammaitoni; S. Gaonkar; F. Garufi; N. Gehrels; G. Gemme; E. Genin; A. Gennai; S. Ghosh; J. A. Giaime; K. D. Giardina; A. Giazotto; C. Gill; J. Gleason; E. Goetz; R. Goetz; L. Gondan; G. González; N. Gordon; M. L. Gorodetsky; S. Gossan; S. Goßler; R. Gouaty; C. Gräf; P. B. Graff; M. Granata; A. Grant; S. Gras; C. Gray; R. J. S. Greenhalgh; A. M. Gretarsson; P. Groot; H. Grote; K. Grover; S. Grunewald; G. M. Guidi; C. Guido; K. Gushwa; E. K. Gustafson; R. Gustafson; D. Hammer; G. Hammond; M. Hanke; J. Hanks; C. Hanna; J. Hanson; J. Harms; G. M. Harry; I. W. Harry; E. D. Harstad; M. Hart; M. T. Hartman; C. -J. Haster; K. Haughian; A. Heidmann; M. Heintze; H. Heitmann; P. Hello; G. Hemming; M. Hendry; I. S. Heng; A. W. Heptonstall; M. Heurs; M. Hewitson; S. Hild; D. Hoak; K. A. Hodge; K. Holt; S. Hooper; P. Hopkins; D. J. Hosken; J. Hough; E. J. Howell; Y. Hu; E. Huerta; B. Hughey; S. Husa; S. H. Huttner; M. Huynh; T. Huynh-Dinh; D. R. Ingram; R. Inta; T. Isogai; A. Ivanov; B. R. Iyer; K. Izumi; M. Jacobson; E. James; H. Jang; P. Jaranowski; Y. Ji; F. Jiménez-Forteza; W. W. Johnson; D. I. Jones; R. Jones; R. J. G. Jonker; L. Ju; Haris K; P. Kalmus; V. Kalogera; S. Kandhasamy; G. Kang; J. B. Kanner; J. Karlen; M. Kasprzack; E. Katsavounidis; W. Katzman; H. Kaufer; K. Kawabe; F. Kawazoe; F. Kéfélian; G. M. Keiser; D. Keitel; D. B. Kelley; W. Kells; A. Khalaidovski

2014-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

402

First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for ci...

Aasi, J; Abbott, R; Abbott, T; Abernathy, M R; Accadia, T; Acernese, F; Ackley, K; Adams, C; Adams, T; Addesso, P; Adhikari, R X; Affeldt, C; Agathos, M; Aggarwal, N; Aguiar, O D; Ain, A; Ajith, P; Alemic, A; Allen, B; Allocca, A; Amariutei, D; Andersen, M; Anderson, R; Anderson, S B; Anderson, W G; Arai, K; Araya, M C; Arceneaux, C; Areeda, J; Aston, S M; Astone, P; Aufmuth, P; Aulbert, C; Austin, L; Aylott, B E; Babak, S; Baker, P T; Ballardin, G; Ballmer, S W; Barayoga, J C; Barbet, M; Barish, B C; Barker, D; Barone, F; Barr, B; Barsotti, L; Barsuglia, M; Barton, M A; Bartos, I; Bassiri, R; Basti, A; Batch, J C; Bauchrowitz, J; Bauer, Th S; Behnke, B; Bejger, M; Beker, M G; Belczynski, C; Bell, A S; Bell, C; Bergmann, G; Bersanetti, D; Bertolini, A; Betzwieser, J; Beyersdorf, P T; Bilenko, I A; Billingsley, G; Birch, J; Biscans, S; Bitossi, M; Bizouard, M A; Black, E; Blackburn, J K; Blackburn, L; Blair, D; Bloemen, S; Blom, M; Bock, O; Bodiya, T P; Boer, M; Bogaert, G; Bogan, C; Bond, C; Bondu, F; Bonelli, L; Bonnand, R; Bork, R; Born, M; Boschi, V; Bose, Sukanta; Bosi, L; Bradaschia, C; Brady, P R; Braginsky, V B; Branchesi, M; Brau, J E; Briant, T; Bridges, D O; Brillet, A; Brinkmann, M; Brisson, V; Brooks, A F; Brown, D A; Brown, D D; Brückner, F; Buchman, S; Bulik, T; Bulten, H J; Buonanno, A; Burman, R; Buskulic, D; Buy, C; Cadonati, L; Cagnoli, G; Bustillo, J Calderón; Calloni, E; Camp, J B; Campsie, P; Cannon, K C; Canuel, B; Cao, J; Capano, C D; Carbognani, F; Carbone, L; Caride, S; Castiglia, A; Caudill, S; Cavaglià, M; Cavalier, F; Cavalieri, R; Celerier, C; Cella, G; Cepeda, C; Cesarini, E; Chakraborty, R; Chalermsongsak, T; Chamberlin, S J; Chao, S; Charlton, P; Chassande-Mottin, E; Chen, X; Chen, Y; Chincarini, A; Chiummo, A; Cho, H S; Chow, J; Christensen, N; Chu, Q; Chua, S S Y; Chung, S; Ciani, G; Clara, F; Clark, J A; Cleva, F; Coccia, E; Cohadon, P -F; Colla, A; Collette, C; Colombini, M; Cominsky, L; Constancio, M; Conte, A; Cook, D; Corbitt, T R; Cordier, M; Cornish, N; Corpuz, A; Corsi, A; Costa, C A; Coughlin, M W; Coughlin, S; Coulon, J -P; Countryman, S; Couvares, P; Coward, D M; Cowart, M; Coyne, D C; Coyne, R; Craig, K; Creighton, J D E; Creighton, T D; Crowder, S G; Cumming, A; Cunningham, L; Cuoco, E; Dahl, K; Canton, T Dal; Damjanic, M; Danilishin, S L; D'Antonio, S; Danzmann, K; Dattilo, V; Daveloza, H; Davier, M; Davies, G S; Daw, E J; Day, R; Dayanga, T; Debreczeni, G; Degallaix, J; Deléglise, S; Del Pozzo, W; Denker, T; Dent, T; Dereli, H; Dergachev, V; De Rosa, R; DeRosa, R T; DeSalvo, R; Dhurandhar, S; Díaz, M; Di Fiore, L; Di Lieto, A; Di Palma, I; Di Virgilio, A; Donath, A; Donovan, F; Dooley, K L; Doravari, S; Dossa, S; Douglas, R; Downes, T P; Drago, M; Drever, R W P; Driggers, J C; Du, Z; Dwyer, S; Eberle, T; Edo, T; Edwards, M; Effler, A; Eggenstein, H; Ehrens, P; Eichholz, J; Eikenberry, S S; Endr\\Hoczi, G; Essick, R; Etzel, T; Evans, M; Evans, T; Factourovich, M; Fafone, V; Fairhurst, S; Fang, Q; Farinon, S; Farr, B; Farr, W M; Favata, M; Fehrmann, H; Fejer, M M; Feldbaum, D; Feroz, F; Ferrante, I; Ferrini, F; Fidecaro, F; Finn, L S; Fiori, I; Fisher, R P; Flaminio, R; Fournier, J -D; Franco, S; Frasca, S; Frasconi, F; Frede, M; Frei, Z; Freise, A; Frey, R; Fricke, T T; Fritschel, P; Frolov, V V; Fulda, P; Fyffe, M; Gair, J; Gammaitoni, L; Gaonkar, S; Garufi, F; Gehrels, N; Gemme, G; Genin, E; Gennai, A; Ghosh, S; Giaime, J A; Giardina, K D; Giazotto, A; Gill, C; Gleason, J; Goetz, E; Goetz, R; Gondan, L; González, G; Gordon, N; Gorodetsky, M L; Gossan, S; Goßler, S; Gouaty, R; Gräf, C; Graff, P B; Granata, M; Grant, A; Gras, S; Gray, C; Greenhalgh, R J S; Gretarsson, A M; Groot, P; Grote, H; Grover, K; Grunewald, S; Guidi, G M; Guido, C; Gushwa, K; Gustafson, E K; Gustafson, R; Hammer, D; Hammond, G; Hanke, M; Hanks, J; Hanna, C; Hanson, J; Harms, J; Harry, G M; Harry, I W; Harstad, E D; Hart, M; Hartman, M T; Haster, C -J; Haughian, K; Heidmann, A; Heintze, M; Heitmann, H; Hello, P; Hemming, G; Hendry, M; Heng, I S; Heptonstall, A W; Heurs, M; Hewitson, M; Hild, S; Hoak, D; Hodge, K A; Holt, K; Hooper, S; Hopkins, P; Hosken, D J; Hough, J; Howell, E J; Hu, Y; Huerta, E; Hughey, B; Husa, S; Huttner, S H; Huynh, M; Huynh-Dinh, T; Ingram, D R; Inta, R; Isogai, T; Ivanov, A; Iyer, B R; Izumi, K; Jacobson, M; James, E; Jang, H; Jaranowski, P; Ji, Y; Jiménez-Forteza, F; Johnson, W W; Jones, D I; Jones, R; Jonker, R J G; Ju, L; K, Haris; Kalmus, P; Kalogera, V; Kandhasamy, S; Kang, G; Kanner, J B; Karlen, J; Kasprzack, M; Katsavounidis, E; Katzman, W; Kaufer, H; Kawabe, K; Kawazoe, F; Kéfélian, F; Keiser, G M; Keitel, D; Kelley, D B; Kells, W; Khalaidovski, A; Khalili, F Y; Khazanov, E A; Kim, C; Kim, K; Kim, N; Kim, N G; Kim, Y -M; King, E J; King, P J; Kinzel, D L; Kissel, J S; Klimenko, S; Kline, J; Koehlenbeck, S; Kokeyama, K; Kondrashov, V; Koranda, S

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

404

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

405

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

406

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

407

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

409

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

410

Solar Colletors Combined with Ground-Source Heat Pumps in Dwellings - Analyses of System Performance.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The use of ground-source heat pumps for heating buildings and domestic hot water in dwellings is increasing rapidly in Sweden. The heat pump extracts heat… (more)

Kjellsson, Elisabeth

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Natural Calamities and Their Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Man and the Environment (habitat) comprise an integrated system consisting of numerous inter-related elements, possessing specific traits, and streamlined within certain boundaries. The interaction between Man...

Valery A. Menshikov; Anatoly N. Perminov…

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

413

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily.

Zhongyue Su; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu; Ge Zhao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge of the melting process of a particle injected in a plasma jet. The plasma process is nowadays applied to produce devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

416

A COMPARISON OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL QUANTITIES WITH FORECASTS FROM CLOUD PREDICTION MODELS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, Bethesda, MD March 15-19, 2010 Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content

417

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

418

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

419

European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

420

Convective-scale Warn on Forecast: A Vision for 2020 David J. Stensrud1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 5 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods since these phenomena forecast guidance. Since increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning lead times

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

422

PRECISION CURRENT SOURCE OF THE INVERTER TYPE VCH-3000-12 TO POWER MAGNETIC SYSTEMS OF ACCELERATORS AND CHARGED  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRECISION CURRENT SOURCE OF THE INVERTER TYPE VCH-3000-12 TO POWER MAGNETIC SYSTEMS OF ACCELERATORS, with the help of fans placed on the front boards of the Inverter and Rectifier units. Figure 1 shows through the Inverter, Rectifier, LC filter (the resonance frequency is 800 Hz) and the correction circuit

Kozak, Victor R.

423

AN OPEN-SOURCE MULTI-FPGA MODULAR SYSTEM FOR FAIR BENCHMARKING OF TRUE RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN OPEN-SOURCE MULTI-FPGA MODULAR SYSTEM FOR FAIR BENCHMARKING OF TRUE RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS: patrick.haddad@st.com ABSTRACT True Random Number Generators (TRNG) are cryptographic primitives upload their configuration bitstream to the remote FPGA and download random data generated in the same

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

424

To build a photoelectrochemical (PEC) system that produces hydrogen fuel directly from water using sunlight as the energy source.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 SS H2 O2 metaloxide GoalGoal To build a photoelectrochemical (PEC) system that produces hydrogen fuel directly from water using sunlight as the energy source. Approach: development of a multi provides voltage assist using lower-energy photons catalyst surface optimized for hydrogen evolution UH

425

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha?1 in June and 0.4 t ha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

427

Software Implementation of Source Code Quality Analysis and Evaluation for Weapon Systems Software  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

DESIS(DEfense Software Information System) is being developed to manage and maintain weapon systems software as a whole in defense ... the system is to evaluate software quality of weapon systems, analyze whether...

Seill Kim; Youngkyu Park

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Life cycle assessment of UK pig production systems: the impact of dietary protein source   

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was developed to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing 1 kg pig live weight. A comparison was made between dietary protein sources, i.e. imported soybean meal with the UK protein ...

Stephen, Katie Louise

2012-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

429

Evaluation of Engineered Geothermal Systems as a Heat Source for Oil Sands Production in Northern Alberta  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The project costs presented in the following section are intended ... give a basic understanding of the economics of geothermal heat as an energy source for oil sands extraction. Long et...2005) reported that oil...

V. Pathak; T. Babadagli; J. A. Majorowicz; M. J. Unsworth

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Getting ahead in sourcing through benchmarking and system dynamic analysis : an aerospace industry perspective  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Sourcing and purchasing have received renewed attention recently as many supply chains challenge themselves to meet cost reduction goals. These challenges are especially apparent in the high-mix, low volume, and often ...

Chang, Yue (Yue Cathy)

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Design and Development of a Robot-Based Automation System for Cryogenic Crystal Sample Mounting at the Advanced Photon Source  

SciTech Connect

X-ray crystallography is the primary method to determine the 3D structures of complex macromolecules at high resolution. In the years to come, the Advanced Photon Source (APS) and similar 3rd-generation synchrotron sources elsewhere will become the most powerful tools for studying atomic structures of biological molecules. One of the major bottlenecks in the x-ray data collection process is the constant need to change and realign the crystal sample. This is a very time- and manpower-consuming task. An automated sample mounting system will help to solve this bottleneck problem. We have developed a novel robot-based automation system for cryogenic crystal sample mounting at the APS. Design of the robot-based automation system, as well as its on-line test results at the Argonne Structural Biology Center (SBC) 19-BM experimental station, are presented in this paper.

Shu, D.; Preissner, C.; Nocher, D.; Han, Y.; Barraza, J.; Lee, P.; Lee, W.-K.; Cai, Z.; Ginell, S.; Alkire, R.; Lazarski, K.; Schuessler, R.; Joachimiak, A. [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Av., Argonne, Il 60439 (United States)

2004-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

432

Inverse modeling and forecasting for the exploitation of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field, Kamchatka, Russia  

SciTech Connect

A three-dimensional numerical model of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field has been developed based on a conceptual hydrogeological model of the system. It extends over a 13.6-km2 area and includes three layers: (1) a base layer with inflow; (2) a geothermal reservoir; and (3) an upper layer with discharge and recharge/infiltration areas. Using the computer program iTOUGH2 (Finsterle, 2004), the model is calibrated to a total of 13,675 calibration points, combining natural-state and 1960-2006 exploitation data. The principal model parameters identified and estimated by inverse modeling include the fracture permeability and fracture porosity of the geothermal reservoir, the initial natural upflow rate, the base-layer porosity, and the permeabilities of the infiltration zones. Heat and mass balances derived from the calibrated model helped identify the sources of the geothermal reserves in the field. With the addition of five makeup wells, simulation forecasts for the 2007-2032 period predict a sustainable average steam production of 29 kg/s, which is sufficient to maintain the generation of 6.8 MWe at the Pauzhetsky power plant.

Finsterle, Stefan; Kiryukhin, A.V.; Asaulova, N.P.; Finsterle, S.

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

434

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

435

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

436

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

A dual neutron/gamma source for the Fissmat Inspection for Nuclear Detection (FIND) system.  

SciTech Connect

Shielded special nuclear material (SNM) is very difficult to detect and new technologies are needed to clear alarms and verify the presence of SNM. High-energy photons and neutrons can be used to actively interrogate for heavily shielded SNM, such as highly enriched uranium (HEU), since neutrons can penetrate gamma-ray shielding and gamma-rays can penetrate neutron shielding. Both source particles then induce unique detectable signals from fission. In this LDRD, we explored a new type of interrogation source that uses low-energy proton- or deuteron-induced nuclear reactions to generate high fluxes of mono-energetic gammas or neutrons. Accelerator-based experiments, computational studies, and prototype source tests were performed to obtain a better understanding of (1) the flux requirements, (2) fission-induced signals, background, and interferences, and (3) operational performance of the source. The results of this research led to the development and testing of an axial-type gamma tube source and the design/construction of a high power coaxial-type gamma generator based on the {sup 11}B(p,{gamma}){sup 12}C nuclear reaction.

Doyle, Barney Lee (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); King, Michael; Rossi, Paolo (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); McDaniel, Floyd Del (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Morse, Daniel Henry; Antolak, Arlyn J.; Provencio, Paula Polyak (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Raber, Thomas N.

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Requirements for Requirements for m461:Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions Tomek Plewa (Florida State University) + 3 graduate students, Artur Gawryszczak (Warsaw), Konstantinos Kifonidis (Munich), Andrzej Odrzywolek (Cracow), Ju Zhang (FIT), Andrey Zhiglo (Kharkov) 1. m461: Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions * Summarize your projects and expected scientific objectives through 2014 * Modeling and simulations of transient phenomena in stellar astrophysics driven by either radiation or thermonuclear processes * Numerical solution of a coupled system of PDEs and ODEs * Tame nonlinearity! * Our goal is to ... * Explain observed properties of exploding stellar objects * Present focus is ... * Neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions * In the next 3 years we expect to ...

440

Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Natural gas is the primary source for electricity production in Turkey. However, Turkey does not have indigenous resources and imports more than 98.0% of the natural gas it consumes. In 2011, more than 20.0% of Turkey's annual trade deficit was due to imported natural gas, estimated at US$ 20.0 billion. Turkish government has very ambitious targets for the country's energy sector in the next decade according to the Vision 2023 agenda. Previously, we have estimated that Turkey's annual electricity demand would be 530,000 GWh at the year 2023. Considering current energy market dynamics it is almost evident that a substantial amount of this demand would be supplied from natural gas. However, meticulous analysis of the Vision 2023 goals clearly showed that the information about the natural gas sector is scarce. Most importantly there is no demand forecast for natural gas in the Vision 2023 agenda. Therefore, in this study the aim was to generate accurate forecasts for Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030. For this purpose, two semi-empirical models based on econometrics, gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita, and demographics, population change, were developed. The logistic equation, which can be used for long term natural gas demand forecasting, and the linear equation, which can be used for medium term demand forecasting, fitted to the timeline series almost seamlessly. In addition, these two models provided reasonable fits according to the mean absolute percentage error, MAPE %, criteria. Turkey's natural gas demand at the year 2030 was calculated as 76.8 billion m3 using the linear model and 83.8 billion m3 based on the logistic model. Consequently, found to be in better agreement with the official Turkish petroleum pipeline corporation (BOTAS) forecast, 76.4 billion m3, than results published in the literature.

Mehmet Melikoglu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Intercomparison and Coupling of Ensemble and Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Methods for the Analysis and Forecasting of Hurricane Karl (2010)  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the performance of ensemble and variational data assimilation systems for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These methods include an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an incremental four-dimensional variational ...

Jonathan Poterjoy; Fuqing Zhang

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

From pre-salt sources to post-salt traps: A specific petroleum system in Congo coastal basin  

SciTech Connect

The Bas Congo basin extends from Gabon to Angola and is a prolific oil province where both pre-salt and post salt sources and reservoirs have been found. In the northern part of the basin referred to as the Congo coastal basin, the proven petroleum system is more specific: mature source rocks are found only in pre-salt series whereas by contrast 99 % proven hydrocarbon reserves am located in post-salt traps. Such a system is controlled by the following factors: Source rocks are mostly organic rich shales deposited in a restricted environment developed in a rift prior to the Atlantic Ocean opening; Migration from pre-salt sources to post-salt traps is finalized by local discontinuities of the regional salt layer acting otherwise as a tight seal; Post-salt reservoirs are either carbonates or sands desposited in the evolutive shelf margin developped during Upper Cretaceous; Geometric traps are linked to salt tectonics (mostly turtle-shaped structures); Regional shaly seals are related to transgressive shales best developped during high rise sea level time interval. Stratigraphically, the age of hydrocarbon fields trends are younger and younger from West to East: lower Albian in Nkossa, Upper Albian and lower Cenomanian in Likouala, Yanga, Sendji, Upper Cenomanian in Tchibouela, Turonian in Tchendo, Turanian and Senonian in Emeraude.

Vernet, R.

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Luminescent light source for laser pumping and laser system containing same  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

The invention relates to a pumping lamp for use with lasers comprising a porous substrate loaded with a component capable of emitting light upon interaction of the component with exciting radiation and a source of exciting radiation. Preferably, the pumping lamp comprises a source of exciting radiation, such as an electron beam, and an aerogel or xerogel substrate loaded with a component capable of interacting with the exciting radiation, e.g., a phosphor, to produce light, e.g., visible light, of a suitable band width and of a sufficient intensity to generate a laser beam from a laser material.

Hamil, Roy A. (Tijeras, NM); Ashley, Carol S. (Albuquerque, NM); Brinker, C. Jeffrey (Albuquerque, NM); Reed, Scott (Albuquerque, NM); Walko, Robert J. (Albuquerque, NM)

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Status of Cryogenic System for Spallation Neutron Source's Superconducting Radiofrequency Test Facility at Oak Ridge National Lab  

SciTech Connect

Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) is building an independent cryogenic system for its Superconducting Radiofrequency Test Facility (SRFTF). The scope of the system is to support the SNS cryomodule test and cavity test at 2-K (using vacuum pump) and 4.5K for the maintenance purpose and Power Upgrade Project of SNS, and to provide the part of the cooling power needed to backup the current CHL to keep Linac at 4.5-K during CHL maintenance period in the future. The system is constructed in multiple phases. The first phase is to construct an independent 4K helium refrigeration system with helium Dewar and distribution box as load interface. It is schedule to be commissioned in 2013. Here we report the concept design of the system and the status of the first phase of this project.

Xu, Ting [ORNL; Casagrande, Fabio [ORNL; Ganni, Venkatarao [ORNL; Knudsen, Peter N [ORNL; Strong, William Herb [ORNL

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

446

Advanced system demonstration for utilization of biomass as an energy source  

SciTech Connect

The results of a 20 month study to explore the technical and economic feasibility of fuelwood utilization to operate a 50 megawatt energy conversion facility are described. The availability of biomass as a fuel source, the methods of harvesting and collecting the fuelstock, the costs of providing adequate fuel to the plant, and other requirements for fueling the proposed conversion facility are investigated. (MHR)

Not Available

1980-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Analysis of Energy and Soft Dirt in an Urban Untreated Sewage Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When using urban untreated sewage as a cool and heat source of heat pump, it is unavoidable to form soft dirt. Based on the method of exergy, an analysis is given of the impact the dirt growth of a tube-shell sewage heat exchanger will have...

Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 - Residential Demand  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

residential demand module (RDM) forecasts energy consumption by Census division for seven marketed energy sources plus solar and geothermal energy. RDM is a structural model and its forecasts are built up from projections of the residential housing stock and of the energy-consuming equipment contained therein. The components of RDM and its interactions with the NEMS system are shown in Figure 5. NEMS provides forecasts of residential energy prices, population, and housing starts, which are used by RDM to develop forecasts of energy consumption by fuel and Census division. residential demand module (RDM) forecasts energy consumption by Census division for seven marketed energy sources plus solar and geothermal energy. RDM is a structural model and its forecasts are built up from projections of the residential housing stock and of the energy-consuming equipment contained therein. The components of RDM and its interactions with the NEMS system are shown in Figure 5. NEMS provides forecasts of residential energy prices, population, and housing starts, which are used by RDM to develop forecasts of energy consumption by fuel and Census division. Figure 5. Residential Demand Module Structure RDM incorporates the effects of four broadly-defined determinants of energy consumption: economic and demographic effects, structural effects, technology turnover and advancement effects, and energy market effects. Economic and demographic effects include the number, dwelling type (single-family, multi-family or mobile homes), occupants per household, and location of housing units. Structural effects include increasing average dwelling size and changes in the mix of desired end-use services provided by energy (new end uses and/or increasing penetration of current end uses, such as the increasing popularity of electronic equipment and computers). Technology effects include changes in the stock of installed equipment caused by normal turnover of old, worn out equipment with newer versions which tend to be more energy efficient, the integrated effects of equipment and building shell (insulation level) in new construction, and in the projected availability of even more energy-efficient equipment in the future. Energy market effects include the short-run effects of energy prices on energy demands, the longer-run effects of energy prices on the efficiency of purchased equipment and the efficiency of building shells, and limitations on minimum levels of efficiency imposed by legislated efficiency standards.

449

Two-Dimensional Hybrid Spatial Audio Systems with User Variable Controls of Sound Source Attributes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents two novel hybrid spatial audio systems demonstrated for use in two-dimensional ... further creative freedom to a composer, sound engineer or sound designer. The systems are principally ... bas...

Martin J. Morrell; Joshua D. Reiss

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

453

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

454

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

455

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Rural Electrification Through Solar and Wind Hybrid System: A Self Sustained Grid Free Electric Power Source  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In India, more than 200 million people live in rural areas without access to grid-connected power. A convenient & cost-effective solution would be hybrid power systems which can reduce dependency on grid supply, improve reliability. For a typical domestic load a solar –wind hybrid system is designed with charge controller to charge a conventional battery. To optimize system efficiency, a simple algorithm is developed for system sizing. Total cost of unit is calculated using life cycle cost analysis and payback peri

Vadirajacharya; P.K. Katti

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Study on The Intelligence Control System of Artificial Cooling Source in Architecture  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

. In the system, MPI channel was used to communicate between PLC and PC, and WINCC was used for the man-machine conversation....

Yang, Z.; Xu, X.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Radio frequency ion source operated with field effect transistor based radio frequency system  

SciTech Connect

Characteristics of radio frequency (RF) plasma production are investigated using a field effect transistor inverter power supply as an RF wave source. With the frequency of around 0.3 MHz, an electron density over 10{sup 18} m{sup -3} is produced in argon plasma. Although lower densities are obtained in hydrogen plasma, it drastically increased up to 5x10{sup 18} m{sup -3} with an axial magnetic field of around 100 G applied in the driver region. Effects of the magnetic field and gas pressure are investigated in the RF produced plasma with the frequency of several hundred kilohertz.

Ando, A.; Komuro, A.; Matsuno, T. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8759 (Japan); Tsumori, K.; Takeiri, Y. [National Institute for Fusion Science, Toki 509-5292 (Japan)

2010-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

460

System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.

Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2006), 132, pp. 29052923 doi: 10.1256/qj.06.25 Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that many commonly used systems of measurement (`metrics') in weather forecast verification are capable of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics

Hamill, Tom

462

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

464

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

466

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

468

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

469

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

470

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

471

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

473

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

474

First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect ...

Aggarwal, Nancy

475

The Application of Frequency-Conversion Technology in Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Reconstruction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Deep well pump power is relatively ubiquitous in the groundwater heat pump air-conditioning system in some hotels in Hunan, and the heat pump usually meets the change of the load by throttling. Therefore, frequency conversion technology is proposed...

Dai, X.; Song, S.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Simulation Study of Hybrid Ground Source Heat Pump System in the Hot-Humid Climate.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??The beachfront hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP), located in the hot-humid climate, is simulated by TRNSYS in the thesis, and the simulation… (more)

Zhu, Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Gathering knowledge for a question answering system from heterogeneous information sources  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Although vast amounts of information are available electronically today, no effective information access mechanism exists to provide humans with convenient information access. A general, open-domain question answering system is a solution to this problem. ...

Boris Katz; Jimmy Lin; Sue Felshin

2001-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed tovisual monitoring of the cable’s motion, and the system wasand wide-ribbon woven-nylon cables, respectively, and their

Banks, T. I.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Source and Extraction for Simultaneous Four-hall Beam Delivery System at CEBAF  

SciTech Connect

A new design for simultaneous delivery of the electron beam to all four 12 GeV CEBAF experimental halls* requires a new 750 MHz RF separator system in the 5th pass extraction region, a 250 MHz repetition rate for its beams, and addition of a fourth laser at the photo-cathode gun. The proposed system works in tandem with the existing 500 MHz RF separators and beam repetition rate on the lower passes. The new 5th pass RF separators will have the same basic design but modified to run at 750 MHz. The change to the beam repetition rate will be at the photo-cathode gun through an innovative upgrade of the seed laser driver system using electro-optic modulators. The new laser system also allows addition of the fourth laser. The new RF separators, the new laser system and other hardware changes required to implement the Four-Hall operation delivery system will be discussed in this paper.

Kazimi, Reza; Wang, Haipeng; Spata, Mike F.; Hansknecht, John C.

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

PARAMETRIC STUDY OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM FOR HOT AND HUMID CLMATE  

SciTech Connect

The U-tube sizes and varied thermal conductivity with different grout materials are studied based on the benchmark residential building in Hot-humid Pensacola, Florida. In this study, the benchmark building is metered and the data is used to validate the simulation model. And a list of comparative simulation cases with varied parameter value are simulated to study the importance of pipe size and grout to the ground source heat pump energy consumption. The simulation software TRNSYS [1] is employed to fulfill this task. The results show the preliminary energy saving based on varied parameters. Future work needs to be conducted for the cost analysis, include the installation cost from contractor and materials cost.

Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Technical Feasibility Study for Deployment of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard -- Kittery, Maine  

SciTech Connect

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, in accordance with the RE-Powering America's Lands initiative, engaged the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct feasibility studies to assess the viability of developing renewable energy generating facilities on contaminated sites. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY) is a United States Navy facility located on a series of conjoined islands in the Piscataqua River between Kittery, ME and Portsmouth, NH. EPA engaged NREL to conduct a study to determine technical feasibility of deploying ground-source heat pump systems to help PNSY achieve energy reduction goals.

Hillesheim, M.; Mosey, G.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) The projections of world energy consumption appearing in this yearÂ’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) are based on the Energy Information AdministrationÂ’s (EIAÂ’s) international energy modeling tool, System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). SAGE is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each regionÂ’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.

483

rf power system for thrust measurements of a helicon plasma source  

SciTech Connect

A rf power system has been developed, which allows the use of rf plasma devices in an electric propulsion test facility without excessive noise pollution in thruster diagnostics. Of particular importance are thrust stand measurements, which were previously impossible due to noise. Three major changes were made to the rf power system: first, the cable connection was changed from a balanced transmission line to an unbalanced coaxial line. Second, the rf power cabinet was placed remotely in order to reduce vibration-induced noise in the thrust stand. Finally, a relationship between transmission line length and rf was developed, which allows good transmission of rf power from the matching network to the helicon antenna. The modified system was tested on a thrust measurement stand and showed that rf power has no statistically significant contribution to the thrust stand measurement.

Kieckhafer, Alexander W.; Walker, Mitchell L. R. [Department of Aerospace Engineering, High-Power Electric Propulsion Laboratory, College of Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332 (United States)

2010-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

484

Energy Sources | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

July 20, 2011 July 20, 2011 Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. July 8, 2011 Energy Matters Mailbag This edition of the mailbag tackles follow-up questions from our Energy Matters discussion on breaking our reliance on foreign oil. June 30, 2011 Energy Matters: Our Energy Independence June 22, 2011 Distributed Energy Distributed energy consists of a range of smaller-scale and modular devices designed to provide electricity, and sometimes also thermal energy, in locations close to consumers. They include fossil and renewable energy technologies (e.g., photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, microturbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells, combustion turbines, and steam

485

HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

, and plotting the output are also included. INTRODUCTION HVACSIM+, which stands for `HVAC SIMulation PLUS other systems', is a non-proprietary simulation package developed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Gaithersburg, Maryland, U.S.A. It is capable of modeling HVAC (heating, ventilation

486

Classification and nondegeneracy of SU(n + 1) Toda system with singular sources  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

= 4i0 in R2 , R2 eui dx -1, 0 is Dirac measure at 0, and the coefficients aij) Toda system for SU(n + 1): ui + n j=1 aijeuj = 4 m j=1 ijPj in R2 R2 eui dx

Wei, Jun-cheng

487

The Well-Group Distribution of Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Optimized Research  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is the key question that how does the well group arrange for application of GWSHP system. Based on the fact that the water movement is the important factor of heat transfer on aquifer, this paper presents two steps analysis method and analyze...

Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Optimal Well-Group Distribution of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is critical to determine how the well group arranges for application of the GWSHP system. Based on the fact that water movement is the most important factor influencing heat transfer in an aquifer, this paper presents a two-step analysis method...

Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Tagged Neutron Source for API Inspection Systems with Greatly Enhanced Spatial Resolution  

SciTech Connect

We recently developed induced fission and transmission imaging methods with time- and directionally-tagged neutrons offer new capabilities for characterization of fissile material configurations and enhanced detection of special nuclear materials (SNM). An Advanced Associated Particle Imaging (API) generator with higher angular resolution and neutron yield than existing systems is needed to fully exploit these methods.

None

2012-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

490

Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision  

SciTech Connect

A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

Not Available

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Revised {open_quotes}LEPS{close_quotes} scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The most commonly used measures for verifying forecasts or simulations of continuous variables are root-mean-squared error (rmse) and anomaly correlation. Some disadvantages of these measures are demonstrated. Existing assessment systems for categorical forecasts are discussed briefly. An alternative unbiased verification measure is developed, known as the linear error in probability space (LEPS) score. The LEPS score may be used to assess forecasts of both continuous and categorical variables and has some advantages over rmse and anomaly correlation. The properties of the version of LEPS discussed here are reviewed and compared with an earlier form of LEPS. A skill-score version of LEPS may be used to obtain an overall measure of the skill of a number of forecasts. This skill score is biased, but the bias is negligible if the number of effectively independent forecasts or simulations is large. Some examples are given in which the LEPS skill score is compared with rmse and anomaly correlation. 14 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs.

Potts, J.M. [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom)] [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom); Folland, C.K. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)] [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Jolliffe, I.T. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom)] [and others] [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom); and others

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE  

SciTech Connect

This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using a low power laser source  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

Graves, Steven W; Habbersett, Robert C

2013-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

494

System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using low-power laser source  

DOE Patents (OSTI)

A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

Graves, Steven W.; Habbersett, Robert C.

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Creating an EPICS Based Test Stand Development System for a BPM Digitizer of the Linac Coherent Light Source  

SciTech Connect

The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is required to deliver a high quality electron beam for producing coherent X-rays. As a result, high resolution beam position monitoring is required. The Beam Position Monitor (BPM) digitizer acquires analog signals from the beam line and digitizes them to obtain beam position data. Although Matlab is currently being used to test the BPM digitizer?s functions and capability, the Controls Department at SLAC prefers to use Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS). This paper discusses the transition of providing similar as well as enhanced functionalities, than those offered by Matlab, to test the digitizer. Altogether, the improved test stand development system can perform mathematical and statistical calculations with the waveform signals acquired from the digitizer and compute the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of the signals. Finally, logging of meaningful data into files has been added.

Not Available

2011-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

496

Artificial neural network based models for forecasting electricity generation of grid connected solar PV power plant  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for forecasting the performance of electric energy generated output from a working 25-kWp grid connected solar PV system and a 100-kWp grid connected PV system installed at Minicoy Island of Union Territory of Lakshadweep Islands. The ANN interpolates among the solar PV generation output and relevant parameters such as solar radiation, module temperature and clearness index. In this study, three ANN models are implemented and validated with reasonable accuracy on real electric energy generation output data. The first model is univariate based on solar radiation and the output values. The second model is a multivariate model based on module temperature along with solar radiation. The third model is also a multivariate model based on module temperature, solar radiation and clearness index. A forecasting performance measure such as percentage root mean square error has been presented for each model. The second model, which gives the most accurate results, has been used in forecasting the generation output for another PV system with similar accuracy.

Imtiaz Ashraf; A. Chandra

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

An efficient high-quality hierarchical clustering algorithm for automatic inference of software architecture from the source code of a software system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

It is a high-quality algorithm for hierarchical clustering of large software source code. This effectively allows to break the complexity of tens of millions lines of source code, so that a human software engineer can comprehend a software system at high level by means of looking at its architectural diagram that is reconstructed automatically from the source code of the software system. The architectural diagram shows a tree of subsystems having OOP classes in its leaves (in the other words, a nested software decomposition). The tool reconstructs the missing (inconsistent/incomplete/inexistent) architectural documentation for a software system from its source code. This facilitates software maintenance: change requests can be performed substantially faster. Simply speaking, this unique tool allows to lift the comprehensible grain of object-oriented software systems from OOP class-level to subsystem-level. It is estimated that a commercial tool, developed on the basis of this work, will reduce software mainte...

Rogatch, Sarge

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Rules and Regulations Pertaining to a User Fee System for Point Source Dischargers that Discharge Pollutants into the Waters of the State (Rhode Island)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

These regulations establish a user fee system for point source dischargers that discharge pollutants into the surface waters of the State. The funds from such fees are used by the Department of...

499

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

500

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)