National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasting system sources

  1. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  2. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  5. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01

    Union Carbide's Taft Plant is a typical petrochemical complex with several processes that use and produce various fuel and steam resources. The plant steam and fuel system balances vary extensively since several process units 'block operate...

  6. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  7. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  8. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  9. NH13A: No-source tsunami forecasting for Alaska communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tolkova, Elena

    NH13A: No-source tsunami forecasting for Alaska communities Dmitry Nicolsky (UAF) djnicolsky://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/ Wave trains to Alaska: direction structure (time history) tsunami source R E S P and accurate regional tsunami forecasts · A deep-ocean detector and a coastal site can be connected

  10. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  11. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  12. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental InformationENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  13. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  14. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  15. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  16. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  17. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  18. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01

    Farland (Member) J esTR ao (Head of Department) May 1991 ABSTRACT Streamflow Forecasting for Large-Scale Hydrologic Systems. (May 1991) Haitham Munir Awwad, B. S. , University of Jordan Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Juan B. Valdes An on-line streamflow... thankful to Dr. Ralph A. Wurbs and Dr. Marshall J. McFarland for their assistance on my advisory committee. Support for this thesis by the Department of Civil Engineering through the Engineering Excellence Fund, and by the U, S. Army Corps of Engineers...

  19. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  20. Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds STEVIE ROQUELAURE of uncertainty that lead to dispersion. Key words: Local numerical forecast system, fog and low clouds, seasonal prediction system. 1. Introduction Accurate prediction of fog and low clouds is one of the main issues

  1. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  2. Detiding DART buoy data for real-time extraction of source coefficients for operational tsunami forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I

    2014-01-01

    U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...

  3. A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios

    A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) A Papaioannou1 Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed

  4. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore »larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  5. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  6. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  7. Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, Shu-Ching Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud, Miami FL {ksale002, sadjadi,chens}@cs.fiu.edu ABSTRACT Current weather forecast and visualization systems lack the scalability to support numerous customized requests for weather research and forecasting

  8. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  9. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  10. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  11. Development of Load Forecasting Procedures for the Texas A&M University System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baltazar-Cervantes, J. C.; Lim, C.; Haberl, J. S.; Turnder, W. D.; Claridge, D. E.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on the effort to develop load-forecasting procedures for the Texas A&M University System (TAMUS). Such procedures are being investigated to determine if the TAMUS can benefit from the pending deregulation ...

  12. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    , Energy Meteorology Group, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany, elke.lorenz@uni-oldenburg.de + UniversityQUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Schneider° * University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory

  13. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  14. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  15. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  16. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  17. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  19. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, Brian N. (Yakima, WA); Wu, Xin Di (San Jose, CA)

    1998-01-01

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metalorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition.

  20. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, B.N.; Wu, X.D.

    1998-10-13

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metallorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition. 13 figs.

  1. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  2. An Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Gary S.

    are important for predicting pollutants regulated by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NAAQS pollutants, include CO, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, and SO2, are considered deleterious to public health and airAn Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems 1

  3. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  4. 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 2004 Pollock Year-Class Prediction: Average Recruitment DATA This forecast is based on five data sources: three physical properties and two biological data sets. The sources are: 1) Observed 2004 Kodiak precipitation totals (inches) from hourly observations. Data for 2004 were obtained from the NOAA National

  5. Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

    2011-10-21

    frequency. We find that turning the digital filter on in these two sets of experiments leads to a major improvement of the analyses. In the experiments with randomly placed observations, turning the digital fil- ter on degrades the analysis in the Tropics... are carried out with an implementation of the Local En- semble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both...

  6. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  7. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  8. Data-driven spectral decomposition and forecasting of ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    We develop a framework for dimension reduction, mode decomposition, and nonparametric forecasting of data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. This framework is based on a representation of the Koopman group of unitary operators in a smooth orthonormal basis of the L2 space of the dynamical system, acquired from time-ordered data through the diffusion maps algorithm. Using this representation, we compute Koopman eigenfunctions through a regularized advection-diffusion operator, and employ these eigenfunctions in dimension reduction maps with projectible dynamics and high smoothness for the given observation modality. In systems with pure point spectra, we construct a decomposition of the generator of the Koopman group into mutually commuting vector fields, which we reconstruct in data space through a representation of the pushforward map in the Koopman eigenfunction basis. We also use a special property of this basis, namely that the basis elements evolve as simple harmonic oscillators, to build nonparamet...

  9. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Energy Meteorology Group, 26111 Oldenburg, GermanyH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systemsFORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  11. Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud Forecasts at Airports

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud authorities with accurate forecasts of fog and cloud ceiling. A specific event, which is called a low with the prediction of infrequent events like fog and the life cycles of low clouds. At Paris' Charles de Gaulle (Cd

  12. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  13. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  14. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  15. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  16. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    Performance of ground source heat pump system in a near-zerosimulation tool for ground- source heat pump system designflow systems and ground source heat pump systems Abstract

  17. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  18. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  19. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  20. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  1. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  2. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  3. Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

    2010-06-27

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

  4. Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

    2010-03-15

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

  5. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  6. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  7. APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO BUILDINGS AND BRIDGE DECKS. By MAHADEVAN Chapter Page 1. Introduction 1.1. Overview of hybrid ground source heat pump systems 1.2. Literature review 1.3. Thesis objective and scope 2. Optimal sizing of hybrid ground source heat pump system

  8. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  9. Power conditioning system for energy sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mazumder, Sudip K. (Chicago, IL); Burra, Rajni K. (Chicago, IL); Acharya, Kaustuva (Chicago, IL)

    2008-05-13

    Apparatus for conditioning power generated by an energy source includes an inverter for converting a DC input voltage from the energy source to a square wave AC output voltage, and a converter for converting the AC output voltage from the inverter to a sine wave AC output voltage.

  10. A forecast-driven tactical planning model for a serial manufacturing system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chhaochhria, Pallav

    We examine tactical planning for a serial manufacturing system that produces a product family with many process steps and low volumes. The system is subject to uncertainty in demand, in the supply of raw materials, and in ...

  11. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-07-01

    Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  14. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  15. Identifying Pollutant Sources in Tidally Mixed Systems: Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Winant, Clinton D.

    sitessas a primary source of fecal indicator bacteria in the water column and subtidal sediments and magnitude of pollutant sources potentially responsible for the impairment. While this information mayIdentifying Pollutant Sources in Tidally Mixed Systems: Case Study of Fecal Indicator Bacteria from

  16. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  17. Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kulp, Thomas Jan (Livermore, CA); Kliner, Dahv A. V. (San Ramon, CA); Sommers, Ricky (Oakley, CA); Goers, Uta-Barbara (Campbell, NY); Armstrong, Karla M. (Livermore, CA)

    2006-12-19

    The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

  18. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  19. Method and system of integrating information from multiple sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alford, Francine A. (Livermore, CA); Brinkerhoff, David L. (Antioch, CA)

    2006-08-15

    A system and method of integrating information from multiple sources in a document centric application system. A plurality of application systems are connected through an object request broker to a central repository. The information may then be posted on a webpage. An example of an implementation of the method and system is an online procurement system.

  20. Combined permeable pavement and ground source heat pump systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grabowiecki, Piotr

    2010-01-01

    The PhD thesis focuses on the performance assessment of permeable pavement systems incorporating ground source heat pumps (GSHP). The relatively high variability of temperature in these systems allows for the survival of ...

  1. Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavriyev, Anton

    2014-03-27

    An alternative synchronization technique – one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

  2. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  3. Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brest, Université de

    renewable energy resources are random and weather/climatic conditions-dependant. In this challenging context technical and economical constraints. Index Terms--Hybrid energy systems, renewable power generation-friendly nature (i.e. renewable energies). Although renewable energy penetration in electricity is expected

  4. Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    measurements, continuous performance monitoring of associated GSHP systems, and analysis aided by calibrated models - Collection and analysis of available data based on...

  5. Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

    1985-06-01

    The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

  6. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRFGSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRVintended to be as energy efficient as required by current

  7. Information Sources for Small Water Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dozier, Monty; Theodori, Gene L.; Jensen, Ricard

    2007-02-19

    Managers of small waters systems must have information about a variety of topics. This publication lists essential printed and electronic resources on disaster preparedness, national drinking water standards, private water well management, water...

  8. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    -Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms. G. Kariniotakis* , D. Mayer, J. Moussafir, R. Chevallaz-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches

  9. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  10. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    type air-source VRF system and a GSHP system that uses single-stage scroll compressors and vertical ground loop heat exchanger (

  11. Sources of Schedule Risk in Complex System Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Browning, Tyson R.

    1998-07-26

    From one perspective, developing complex systems is an exercise in uncertainty reduction and risk management. In this article I first organize the principle sources of risk in product development into five categories: ...

  12. TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings:...

  13. A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Wind) For Rural Communities In Mexico Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library...

  14. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  15. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  16. Guidelines for the implementation of an open source information system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.

    1995-08-01

    This work was initially performed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to help with the Open Source Task of the 93 + 2 Initiative; however, the information should be of interest to anyone working with open sources. The authors cover all aspects of an open source information system (OSIS) including, for example, identifying relevant sources, understanding copyright issues, and making information available to analysts. They foresee this document as a reference point that implementors of a system could augment for their particular needs. The primary organization of this document focuses on specific aspects, or components, of an OSIS; they describe each component and often make specific recommendations for its implementation. This document also contains a section discussing the process of collecting open source data and a section containing miscellaneous information. The appendix contains a listing of various providers, producers, and databases that the authors have come across in their research.

  17. Accelerator Systems Division (ASD) | Advanced Photon Source

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge KiosksAbout UsAbout NewAccelerator Systems

  18. Design and development of the CSNS ion source control system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lu Yan-Hua; Li Gang; Ouyang Hua-Fu

    2013-04-10

    After the CSNS ion source test stand has been stably working for years, an online control system for CSNS ion source aiming to be more stable and reliable is now under development. F3RP61-2L, a new PLC CPU module under Linux system, is introduced to the system as an IOC, to function together with the I/O modules of FA-M3 PLC on the PLC-bus. The adoption of the new IOC not only simplifies the architecture of the control system, but also improves the data transmission speed. In this paper, the design and development of the supervisory and control system for CSNS ion source are described.

  19. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

  20. Multi-Source Hydronic Heat Pump System Performance Test Bed 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meckler, M.

    1984-01-01

    of peak power and energy savings allowed by the innovative system. The main difference between the MSHHP and a conventional HVAC system is use of a chilled water "diversity" cooling loop interconnecting air to water coils (located at each water source heat...

  1. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tainzhen; Liu, Xaiobing

    2009-11-01

    With the current movement toward net zero energy buildings, many technologies are promoted with emphasis on their superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerant flow (VRF) and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are probably the most competitive technologies among these. However, there are few studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems compared with GSHP systems. In this article, a preliminary comparison of energy efficiency between the air-source VRF and GSHP systems is presented. The computer simulation results show that GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRF system for conditioning a small office building in two selected US climates. In general, GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRV system, especially when the building has significant heating loads. For buildings with less heating loads, the GSHP system could still perform better than the air-source VRF system in terms of energy efficiency, but the resulting energy savings may be marginal.

  2. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  3. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  5. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  6. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  7. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  9. Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bornstein, Jonathan G. (Miami, FL); Friedman, Peter S. (Toledo, OH)

    1985-01-01

    A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

  10. Evolution Patterns of Open-Source Software Systems and Communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nakakoji, Kumiyo

    Evolution Patterns of Open-Source Software Systems and Communities Kumiyo Nakakoji1,2,3 Yasuhiro product evolution". To understand how this "natural product evolution" happens, we have conducted a case study of four typical OSS projects. Unlike most previous studies on software evolution that focus

  11. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  12. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  13. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    tool for geothermal water loop heat pump systems, 9thInternational IEA Heat Pump Conference, Zürich, Switzerland,of ground source heat pump system in a near-zero energy

  14. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    tool for geothermal water loop heat pump systems, 9thInternational IEA Heat Pump Conference, Zürich, Switzerland,Performance of ground source heat pump system in a near-zero

  15. Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lippmann, M J

    1996-01-01

    Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy

  16. A global aerosol model forecast for the ACE-Asia field experiment Mian Chin,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chin, Mian

    layer. We attribute this ``missing'' dust source to desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed

  17. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  18. Reliability analysis of electric power systems including time dependent sources 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Younjong

    1987-01-01

    Chairman of Advisory Committee: Chanan Singh A method for reliability analysis of electric power systems with time dependent sources, such as photovoltaic and wind generation, is introduced. The fluctuating characteristic of unconventional generation... and active solar. wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Of all the renewable energy technologies that have been the focus of encouraging government and private R k D efforts, photovoltaic generation and wind turbine generation appear to be the leading...

  19. Electric machine and current source inverter drive system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hsu, John S

    2014-06-24

    A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

  20. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  1. Seismic and infrasonic source processes in volcanic fluid systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matoza, Robin S.

    2009-01-01

    into a volcano-seismic source process in low-viscosityDIEGO Seismic and infrasonic source processes in volcanicTHE DISSERTATION Seismic and infrasonic source processes in

  2. Cesium Delivery System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Pandya, K.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382 428 (India); Bandyopadhyay, M.; Chakraborty, A.; Singh, M. J. [ITER- India, Institute for Plasma Research, A-29, Sector 25, GIDC, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2011-09-26

    The technique of surface production of negative ions using cesium, Cs, has been efficiently exploited over the years for producing negative ion beams with increased current densities from negative ion sources used on neutral beam lines. Deposition of Cs on the source walls and the plasma grid lowers the work function and therefore enables a higher yield of H{sup -}, when hydrogen particles (H and/or H{sub x}{sup +}) strike these surfaces.A single driver RF based (100 kW, 1 MHz) negative ion source test bed, ROBIN, is being set up at IPR under a technical collaboration between IPR and IPP, Germany. The optimization of the Cs oven design to be used on this facility as well as multidriver sources is underway. The characterization experiments of such a Cs delivery system with a 1 g Cs inventory have been carried out using surface ionization technique. The experiments have been carried by delivering Cs into a vacuum chamber without plasma. The linear motion of the surface ionization detector, SID, attached with a linear motion feedthrough allows measuring the angular distribution of the Cs coming out of the oven. Based on the experimental results, a Cs oven for ROBIN has been proposed. The Cs oven design and experimental results of the prototype Cs oven are reported and discussed in the paper.

  3. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  4. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  5. Optical laser systems at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Minitti, Michael P.; Robinson, Joseph S.; Coffee, Ryan N.; Edstrom, Steve; Gilevich, Sasha; Glownia, James M.; Granados, Eduardo; Hering, Philippe; Hoffmann, Matthias C.; Miahnahri, Alan; et al

    2015-04-22

    Ultrafast optical lasers play an essential role in exploiting the unique capabilities of recently commissioned X-ray free-electron laser facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Pump–probe experimental techniques reveal ultrafast dynamics in atomic and molecular processes and reveal new insights in chemistry, biology, material science and high-energy-density physics. This manuscript describes the laser systems and experimental methods that enable cutting-edge optical laser/X-ray pump–probe experiments to be performed at LCLS.

  6. A Stochastic Calculus for Network Systems with Renewable Energy Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Kui; Marinakis, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    We consider the performance modeling and evaluation of network systems powered with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Such energy sources largely depend on environmental conditions, which are hard to predict accurately. As such, it may only make sense to require the network systems to support a soft quality of service (QoS) guarantee, i.e., to guarantee a service requirement with a certain high probability. In this paper, we intend to build a solid mathematical foundation to help better understand the stochastic energy constraint and the inherent correlation between QoS and the uncertain energy supply. We utilize a calculus approach to model the cumulative amount of charged energy and the cumulative amount of consumed energy. We derive upper and lower bounds on the remaining energy level based on a stochastic energy charging rate and a stochastic energy discharging rate. By building the bridge between energy consumption and task execution (i.e., service), we study the QoS guarantee under...

  7. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, William K. (Oak Ridge, TN); Stirling, William L. (Oak Ridge, TN)

    1982-01-01

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employs crossed electric and magnetic fields to separate the electrons from ions as they are extracted from a negative ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full kinetic energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90.degree. to each other, the electrons are separated from the plasma and remain at approximately the electrical potential of the generator in which they were generated. The electrons migrate from the ion beam path in a precessing motion out of the ion accelerating field region into an electron recovery region provided by a specially designed electron collector electrode. The electron collector electrode is uniformly spaced from a surface of the ion generator which is transverse to the direction of migration of the electrons and the two surfaces are contoured in a matching relationship which departs from a planar configuration to provide an electric field component in the recovery region which is parallel to the magnetic field thereby forcing the electrons to be directed into and collected by the electron collector electrode. The collector electrode is maintained at a potential slightly positive with respect to the ion generator so that the electrons are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply voltage energy.

  8. Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lenstra, Arjen K.

    ENAC/ Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS for population safety and! Computational program: Routing System MINERVE Run-off model Infiltration model

  9. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  10. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  11. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  12. Finding Predictors of Field Defects for Open Source Software Systems in Commonly Available Data Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Herbsleb, James D.

    Sources: a Case Study of OpenBSD Paul Luo Li Jim Herbsleb Mary Shaw Institute for Software Research organizations to make informed decisions regarding open source software components. In this paper, we remotely that are seeking to adopt open source software components to make informed choices between candidates 2.Help

  13. HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+ M.H. Khan, 74078, USA ABSTRACT This paper presents a simulation of a hybrid ground source heat pump system, performed using a new graphical user interface for HVACSIM+. Hybrid ground source heat pump systems

  14. Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

    2010-02-01

    The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

  15. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  16. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  17. The ALPS project: open source software for strongly correlated systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    F. Alet; P. Dayal; A. Grzesik; A. Honecker; M. Koerner; A. Laeuchli; S. R. Manmana; I. P. McCulloch; F. Michel; R. M. Noack; G. Schmid; U. Schollwoeck; F. Stoeckli; S. Todo; S. Trebst; M. Troyer; P. Werner; S. Wessel; for the ALPS collaboration

    2004-10-15

    We present the ALPS (Algorithms and Libraries for Physics Simulations) project, an international open source software project to develop libraries and application programs for the simulation of strongly correlated quantum lattice models such as quantum magnets, lattice bosons, and strongly correlated fermion systems. Development is centered on common XML and binary data formats, on libraries to simplify and speed up code development, and on full-featured simulation programs. The programs enable non-experts to start carrying out numerical simulations by providing basic implementations of the important algorithms for quantum lattice models: classical and quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) using non-local updates, extended ensemble simulations, exact and full diagonalization (ED), as well as the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG). The software is available from our web server at http://alps.comp-phys.org.

  18. Multiple delivery cesium oven system for negative ion sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Bhartiya, S.; Pandya, K.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, M. J.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382428 (India)

    2012-02-15

    Distribution of cesium in large negative ion beam sources to be operational in ITER, is presently based on the use of three or more cesium ovens, which operate simultaneously and are controlled remotely. However, use of multiple Cs ovens simultaneously is likely to pose difficulties in operation and maintenance of the ovens. An alternate method of Cs delivery, based on a single oven distribution system is proposed as one which could reduce the need of simultaneous operation of many ovens. A proof of principle experiment verifying the concept of a multinozzle distributor based Cs oven has been carried out at Institute for Plasma Research. It is also observed that the Cs flux is not controlled by Cs reservoir temperature after few hours of operation but by the temperature of the distributor which starts behaving as a Cs reservoir.

  19. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  3. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  5. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    System (REEPS 2.1) , developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), is a forecasting model

  6. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  7. Rotating and static sources for gamma knife radiosurgery systems: Monte Carlo studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, Peter K.N.

    Rotating and static sources for gamma knife radiosurgery systems: Monte Carlo studies J. Y. C of the 201 static sources Leksell gamma knife, LGK . The rotating sources of RGSs simulate an infinite number by the surrounding normal brain tissues, which is a resultant of 201 static 60 Co sources. Each individual beam

  8. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  9. Study of the design Method of an Efficient Ground Source Heat Pump Thermal Source System in a Cold Area 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.; Zou, Y.; Du, G.

    2006-01-01

    The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system-an energy efficiency and environment friendly system-is becoming popular in many parts of China. However, an imbalance usually exists between the annual heat extracted from and rejected to the ground due...

  10. Quete: Ontology-Based Query System for Distributed Sources Haridimos Kondylakis1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Analyti, Anastasia

    of information sources. Our contribution is a system that provides a flexible ap- proach for integrating interconnection of diverse and large numbers of information sources. In order to provide uniform accessQuete: Ontology-Based Query System for Distributed Sources Haridimos Kondylakis1,2 , Anastasia

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  12. Seismic and infrasonic source processes in volcanic fluid systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matoza, Robin S.

    2009-01-01

    Tsunami and Volcano Hazard Assessment and the Nucleartsunamis, surf, and mountain associated waves (MAW) caused by air flow over topography; while man-made sources include nuclear

  13. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  14. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using

  15. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  16. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  17. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  20. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  1. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  2. An Open Source Laboratory for Operating Systems Projects Mark Claypool, David Finkel and Craig Wills *

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    1 An Open Source Laboratory for Operating Systems Projects Mark Claypool, David Finkel and Craig 100 Institute Road Worcester, MA 01609 Abstract Typical undergraduate operating systems projects use services provided by an operating system via system calls or develop code in a simulated operating system

  3. Integration of renewable energy sources: reliability-constrained power system planning and operations using computational intelligence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Lingfeng

    2009-05-15

    studied in the dissertation include reliability evaluation of power systems with time-dependent energy sources, multi-objective design of hybrid generation systems, risk and cost tradeoff in economic dispatch with wind power penetration, optimal placement...

  4. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system, DOE announced on March 20. DOE played a part in the project by providing a...

  5. Designing and testing the neutron source deployment system and calibration plan for a dark matter detector

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Westerdale, Shawn (Shawn S.)

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we designed and tested a calibration and deployment system for the MiniCLEAN dark matter detector. The deployment system uses a computer controlled winch to lower a canister containing a neutron source into ...

  6. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  7. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  8. Deferrable Load Scheduling in a Stand-alone Power System with Renewable Energy Sources and a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Cheng-Shang

    Deferrable Load Scheduling in a Stand-alone Power System with Renewable Energy Sources.O.C. Email: lds@cs.nthu.edu.tw Abstract--Renewable energy resources are environmentally friendly and have in such a system is to effectively utilize renewable energy sources so that the loads can be served as quickly

  9. SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agrawal, Gagan

    SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources Fan Wang Gagan that are hidden behind query forms, thus forming what is re- ferred to as the deep web. In this paper, we propose SEEDEEP, a System for Exploring and quErying scientific DEEP web data sources. SEEDEEP is able

  10. MODELING OF STANDING COLUMN WELLS IN GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MODELING OF STANDING COLUMN WELLS IN GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS By ZHENG DENG Bachelor December, 2004 #12;ii MODELING OF STANDING COLUMN WELLS IN GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS Thesis Approved) ..................................................................... 6 1.3. Basic physical mechanism in SCWs (heat transfer and mass transfer in porous media

  11. The Eucalyptus Open-source Cloud-computing System Daniel Nurmi, Rich Wolski, Chris Grzegorczyk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    California at Santa Barbara, University of

    The Eucalyptus Open-source Cloud-computing System Daniel Nurmi, Rich Wolski, Chris Grzegorczyk to be instrumented and modified by systems researchers. In this work, we present EUCALYPTUS ­ an open- source deployed across a variety physical resources. We outline the ba- sic principles of the EUCALYPTUS design

  12. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION M in a ground source heat pump system falls near or below 0o C, an antifreeze mixture must be used to prevent freezing in the heat pump. The antifreeze mixture type and concentration has a number of implications

  13. Meeting Inelastic Demand in Systems with Storage and Renewable Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gautam, Natarajan

    such as wind turbines or solar panels, and an in- house energy storage device. In our setting, power demand- voltaic (PV) solar panels or wind turbines) that is situated locally and owned by the consumer. Note consider, [1] also models the use of diesel generators and external renewable sources (besides on

  14. An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ": no licensing fees "Free speech": source code, Bugzilla, mailing lists, research results, all out in the open: derivative must be distributed under same license, i.e., GNU General Public License while ($line those terms mean · Re-use possible on any level #12;Resource Assembly Writes module about energy

  15. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  18. Field Test of High Efficiency Residential Buildings with Ground-source and Air-source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ally, Moonis Raza [ORNL] [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL] [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the field performance of space conditioning and water heating equipment in four single-family residential structures with advanced thermal envelopes. Each structure features a different, advanced thermal envelope design: structural insulated panel (SIP); optimum value framing (OVF); insulation with embedded phase change materials (PCM) for thermal storage; and exterior insulation finish system (EIFS). Three of the homes feature ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) for space conditioning and water heating while the fourth has a two-capacity air-source heat pump (ASHP) and a heat pump water heater (HPWH). Two of the GCHP-equipped homes feature horizontal ground heat exchange (GHX) loops that utillize the existing foundation and utility service trenches while the third features a vertical borehole with vertical u-tube GHX. All of the houses were operated under the same simulated occupancy conditions. Operational data on the house HVAC/Water heating (WH) systems are presented and factors influencing overall performance are summarized.

  19. Development of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fujimoto, Hiroshi

    Development of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System and inverter, and its feasibility on grid connected photovoltaic system application. Using this new topology photovoltaic system 1. INTRODUCTION Solid state inverters allow to put photovoltaic (PV) systems into the power

  20. Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

  1. Method and system for imaging a radiation source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Myjak, Mitchell J. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA

    2011-04-19

    A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

  2. Plasma phenomenology in astrophysical systems: Radio-sources and jets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Montani, Giovanni; Petitta, Jacopo

    2014-06-15

    We review the plasma phenomenology in the astrophysical sources which show appreciable radio emissions, namely Radio-Jets from Pulsars, Microquasars, Quasars, and Radio-Active Galaxies. A description of their basic features is presented, then we discuss in some details the links between their morphology and the mechanisms that lead to the different radio-emissions, investigating especially the role played by the plasma configurations surrounding compact objects (Neutron Stars, Black Holes). For the sake of completeness, we briefly mention observational techniques and detectors, whose structure set them apart from other astrophysical instruments. The fundamental ideas concerning angular momentum transport across plasma accretion disks—together with the disk-source-jet coupling problem—are discussed, by stressing their successes and their shortcomings. An alternative scenario is then inferred, based on a parallelism between astrophysical and laboratory plasma configurations, where small-scale structures can be found. We will focus our attention on the morphology of the radio-jets, on their coupling with the accretion disks and on the possible triggering phenomena, viewed as profiles of plasma instabilities.

  3. COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01

    In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

  4. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power

  5. Interconnected High-Voltage Pulsed-Power Converters System Design for H? Ion Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aguglia, D

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the design and experimental validations of a system of three new high-voltage (HV) pulsedpower converters for the H? sources. The system requires three pulsed voltages (50, 40, and 25 kV to ground) at 2-Hz repetition rate, for 700 ?s of usable flat-top. The solution presents ripplefree output voltages and minimal stored energy to protect the ion source from the consequences of arc events. Experimental results on the final full-scale prototype are presented. In case of short-circuit events, the maximal energy delivered to the source is in the Joule range. HV flat-top stability of 1% is experimentally achieved with a simple Proportional-Integral- Derivative regulation and preliminary tuned H? source (e.g., radio frequency control, gas injection, and so forth). The system is running since more than a year with no power converter failures and damage to the source.

  6. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  7. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  8. Energy-Harvesting for Source-Channel Coding in Cyber-Physical Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zemen, Thomas

    -recognized to be energy consumption and storage, due to the difficulty to provide a continuous or sporadic energy source different forms of energy, such as solar, elastic or radio frequency, into electrical power. The regimeEnergy-Harvesting for Source-Channel Coding in Cyber-Physical Systems P. Castiglione FTW Wien

  9. Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perry, Dewayne E.

    Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems Dewayne changes occur outside the tool. In contrast, Infuse concentrates on the actual change process and provides facilities for both managing and coordinating source changes. Infuse provides facilities for automatically

  10. VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2 HVAC&R RESEARCH APRIL 2005 Ground-Source Heat Pump System Research--

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2 HVAC&R RESEARCH APRIL 2005 165 EDITORIAL Ground-Source Heat Pump System Research-- Past, Present, and Future J.D. Spitler, PhD, PE Fellow ASHRAE Ground-source heat pump (GSHP to Heinrich Zoelly is the first known reference to ground-source heat pump systems.2 In the US, some ground-source

  11. Study on The Intelligence Control System of Artificial Cooling Source in Architecture 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Z.; Xu, X.

    2006-01-01

    To overcome the shortcoming of constant temperature and humidity in artificial cooling source control system, a dynamic indoor temperature control strategy was put forward under health and thermal comfortable principles. With a lump human model...

  12. Biofilms as sources of fecal bacteria contamination in the stormwater drainage system in Singapore

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burkhart, Tsung Hwa (Tsung Hwa Sophia)

    2013-01-01

    A study was performed to examine a possible source of fecal bacteria contamination originating from within the stormwater drainage system in Singapore. The extent of fecal bacteria presence in storm drain biofilms was ...

  13. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  14. Test bench to commission a third ion source beam line and a newly designed extraction system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winkelmann, T.; Cee, R.; Haberer, T.; Naas, B.; Peters, A.

    2012-02-15

    The HIT (Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center) is the first hospital-based treatment facility in Europe where patients can be irradiated with protons and carbon ions. Since the commissioning starting in 2006 two 14.5 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion sources are routinely used to produce a variety of ion beams from protons up to oxygen. In the future a helium beam for regular patient treatment is requested, therefore a third ion source (Supernanogan source from PANTECHNIK S.A.) will be integrated. This third ECR source with a newly designed extraction system and a spectrometer line is installed at a test bench at HIT to commission and validate this section. Measurements with different extraction system setups will be presented to show the improvement of beam quality for helium, proton, and carbon beams. An outlook to the possible integration scheme of the new ion source into the production facility will be discussed.

  15. ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

    2010-09-01

    The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

  16. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  17. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  18. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  19. During the emergency power test conducted on Saturday October 31 , 2015, we discovered a communication conflict between the Cogeneration Plant system and the Emergency Power source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hitchcock, Adam P.

    a communication conflict between the Cogeneration Plant system and the Emergency Power source system. Basically

  20. Roadmap for commodity sourcing strategy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chong, Wenzheng

    2015-01-01

    The procurement and sourcing group of OG company was tasked to systematically forecast, design and develop the future state of the company's next generation supply base. The main objective is to anticipate the preferred ...

  1. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  2. System for recovery of daughter isotopes from a source material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tranter, Troy J. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Todd, Terry A. (Aberdeen, ID) [Aberdeen, ID; Lewis, Leroy C. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Henscheid, Joseph P. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-08-04

    A method of separating isotopes from a mixture containing at least two isotopes in a solution is disclosed. A first isotope is precipitated and is collected from the solution. A daughter isotope is generated and collected from the first isotope. The invention includes a method of producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product from a material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232. A solution is formed containing nitric acid and the material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232, and iodate is added to form a thorium iodate precipitate. A supernatant is separated from the thorium iodate precipitate and a second volume of nitric acid is added to the thorium iodate precipitate. The thorium iodate precipitate is stored and a decay product comprising actinium-225 and bismuth-213 is generated in the second volume of nitric acid, which is then separated from the thorium iodate precipitate, filtered, and treated using at least one chromatographic procedure. A system for producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product is also disclosed.

  3. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  4. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power transmission systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnes, P.R.; Dykas, W.P.; Kirby, B.J.; Purucker, S.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Lawler, J.S. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1995-07-01

    Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines are nonconventional, environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources (very sunny or windy areas) are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. This study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these high-capacity renewable sources ranged from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility.

  5. Short communication Optimization of hybrid ground coupled and air source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernández de Córdoba, Pedro

    Short communication Optimization of hybrid ­ ground coupled and air source ­ heat pump systems 2008 Accepted 14 January 2010 Available online 28 January 2010 Keywords: Ground coupled heat pump Air to water heat pump Thermal storage device Hybrid HVAC system Energy efficiency Numerical simulation a b

  6. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 2, Utility case assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaininger, H.W.; Ellis, P.R.; Schaefer, J.C.

    1994-06-01

    Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: (1) The local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics; (2) renewable energy source penetration level; (3) whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied; and (4) local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kw-scale applications may be connected to three-phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and MW-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications.

  7. FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schubert, Wayne H.

    system using an efficient multigrid barotropic vorticity equation model (MBAR). Five perturbation classes Advisor Department Head ii #12;ABSTRACT OF THESIS FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO forecasts. These increases have been largely driven by improved numerical weather prediction models

  8. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  9. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nocedal, Jorge

    Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization M. Fisher J weather prediction centers to produce the initial conditions for 7- to 10-day weather fore- casts, with particular reference to the system in operation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 1

  10. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  11. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  12. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  13. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  14. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  15. Designing, selecting and installing a residential ground-source heat pump system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Liu, Xiaobing [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    It's a compelling proposition: Use the near-constant-temperature heat underground to heat and cool your home and heat domestic water, slashing your energy bills. Yet despite studies demonstrating significant energy savings from ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems, their adoption has been hindered by high upfront costs. Fewer than 1% of US homes use a GSHP system. However, compared to a minimum-code-compliant conventional space-conditioning system, when properly designed and installed, a GSHP retrofit at current market prices offers simple payback of 4.3 years on national average, considering existing federal tax credits. Most people understand how air-source heat pumps work: they move heat from indoor air to outdoor air when cooling and from outdoor air to indoor air when heating. The ground-source heat pump operates on the same principle, except that it moves heat to or from the ground source instead of outdoor air. The ground source is usually a vertical or horiontal ground heat exchanger. Because the ground usually has a more favorable temperature than ambient air for the heating and cooling operation of the vapor-compression refrigeration cycle, GSHP sysems can operate with much higher energy efficiencies than air-source heat pump systems when properly designed and installed. A GSHP system used in a residual building typically provides space conditioning and hot water and comprises three major components: a water-source heat pump unit designed to operate at a wider range of entering fluid temperatures (typically from 30 F to 110 F, or 1 C to 43 C) than a conventional water-source heat pump unit; a ground heat exchanger (GHX); and distribution systems to deliver hot water to the storage tank and heating or cooling to the conditioned rooms. In most residual GSHP systems, the circulation pumps and associated valves are integrated with the heat pump to circulate the heat-carrier fluid (water or aqueous antifreeze solution) through the heat pump and the GHX. A recent assessment indicates that if 20% of US homes replaced their existing space-conditioning and water-heating systems with properly designed, installed and operated state-of-the-art GSHP systems, it would yield significant benefits each year. These include 0.8 quad British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy savings, 54.3 million metric tons of CO{sub 2} emission reductions, $10.4 billion in energy cost savings and 43.2 gigawatts of reduction in summer peak electrical demand.

  16. The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S. [University of Athens, Physics Department, Section of Nuclear and Particle Physics, Zografos 15771 Athens (Greece); Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V. [IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, 1420092 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-08-25

    The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

  17. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  18. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  19. Introduction Hi-C is a source code to hypercode translation system. Utilizing the GNU etags utility, Hi-C parses source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaiser, Gail E.

    Introduction Hi-C is a source code to hypercode translation system. Utilizing the GNU etags utility, Hi-C parses source code bases and generates the corresponding HTML pages. Symbol definitions files. Hi-C currently understands code written in over 18 languages. Hi-C makes it easy for development

  20. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  1. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  2. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  3. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  4. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  5. Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, and chemical reactant sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kong, Peter C

    2013-11-26

    Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, chemical reactant sources, and related methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor system comprising a reaction chamber, a combustion torch positioned to direct a flame into the reaction chamber, and one or more reactant feed assemblies configured to electrically energize at least one electrically conductive solid reactant structure to form a plasma and feed each electrically conductive solid reactant structure into the plasma to form at least one product is disclosed. In an additional embodiment, a chemical reactant source for a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor comprising an elongated electrically conductive reactant structure consisting essentially of at least one chemical reactant is disclosed. In further embodiments, methods of forming a chemical reactant source and methods of chemically converting at least one reactant into at least one product are disclosed.

  6. Freshwater flooding from rivers, overflowing sewage and septic systems and other sources can have a signifi-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    on the source of the flood water and the materials carried in the water. Flooded plants usually die because there is no hazardous flood debris such as pro- pane tanks, pressurized-gas cylinders, refrigerators, air conditioners and Laboratory Manager, and Professor and Extension Water Resources Specialist, The Texas A&M System. Before

  7. Sources of CO and UHC Emissions in Low-Temperature Diesel Combustion Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The sources of unburned hydrocarbons and CO emissions from a PCI-like, early-injection low-temperature combustion system are examined through a combination of homogeneous reactor modeling employing detailed kinetics, multi-dimensional modeling using a reduced kinetic scheme, engine-out emissions measurements, and in-cylinder imaging of the spatial distributions of UHC and CO.

  8. Towards a comprehensive open-source system for geophysical data processing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Patterson, William P.

    used in seismic interpretation. These three components operate in parallel on a distributed computerTowards a comprehensive open-source system for geophysical data processing and interpretation Glenn of a broad range of geophysical data, with emphasis on reflection/refraction seismics. The package also

  9. Distributed Operating Systems I (4005-730-01) Brief guide to information sources for primary research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaminsky, Alan

    for primary research The following online databases are subscribed to by the library. They can be searched3/16/2005 1 Distributed Operating Systems I (4005-730-01) Brief guide to information sources can be accessed at http://wally.rit.edu/electronic/topic/compsci.html · ACM Digital Library o Full

  10. A Novel Integrated Frozen Soil Thermal Energy Storage and Ground-Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Y.; Yao, Y.; Rong, L.; Ma, Z.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a novel integrated frozen soil thermal energy storage and ground-source heat pump (IFSTS&GSHP) system in which the GHE can act as both cold thermal energy storage device and heat exchanger for GSHP is first presented. The IFSTS...

  11. EESOM: Electrical Energy Sourcing Optimization Model Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fang-Yen, Christopher

    EESOM: Electrical Energy Sourcing Optimization Model Department of Electrical and Systems Sobkiw Dr. John Keenan Project Overview The United States' electrical energy sector faces a set. Questions such as when and where electrical energy is needed and how the resources that fuel its generation

  12. Thermal Economic Analysis of an Underground Water Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, W.; Lin, B.

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents the thermal economic analysis of an underground water source heat pump system in a high school building based on usage per exergy cost as an evaluation standard, in which the black box model has been used and the cost...

  13. Discussions on Disposal Forms of Auxiliary Heat Source in Surface Water Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.; Li, G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents two common forms of auxiliary heat source in surface water heat pump system and puts forward the idea that the disposal forms affect operation cost. It deduces operation cost per hour of the two forms. With a project...

  14. Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage Systems*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedram, Massoud

    Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage massimo.poncino@polito.it Abstract-- Hybrid electrical energy storage (HEES) systems consist of multiple banks of heterogeneous electrical energy storage (EES) elements that are connected to each other through

  15. Optimization for Fractional Cooperation in Multiple-Source Multiple-Relay Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adve, Raviraj

    . Chu Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario, Canada Email Toronto, Ontario, Canada Email: aeckford@yorku.ca Raviraj S. Adve Dept. of Electrical and ComputerOptimization for Fractional Cooperation in Multiple-Source Multiple-Relay Systems Josephine P. K

  16. Electron emission in a source-collector sheath system: A kinetic study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rizopoulou, N. Coppins, M.; Bacharis, M.; Robinson, A. P. L.

    2014-10-15

    The classical source-collector sheath system describes a plasma that forms between a Maxwellian source and an absorbing wall. The plasma is assumed to be collisionless and without ionization. Two distinct areas are being formed: the collector sheath, an ion-rich region in contact with the absorbing boundary, and the source sheath, which is an electron-rich area near the Maxwellian source. In this work, we study a modified version of the classical source-collector sheath system, where the wall is no longer absorbing but emits electrons. As a result, we have two different types of collector sheath, one where a potential well is formed and one without a potential well. We examine the effect of electron emission for a range of conditions for the plasma and the emitted electrons. In the first part of this work, we study the problem analytically, and in the second, using our kinetic Vlasov code, Yggdrasil. The simulation results are in very good agreement with the predictions of our theoretical model.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  18. Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghafghazi, Saeed [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sowlati, T. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Melin, Staffan [Delta Research Corporation

    2011-03-01

    Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these options. Conclusions Natural gas utilization as the primary heat source for district heat production implies environmental complications beyond just the global warming impacts. Diffusing renewable energy sources for generating the base load district heat would reduce human toxicity, ecosystem quality degradation, global warming, and resource depletion compared to the case of natural gas. Reducing fossil fuel dependency in various stages of wood pellet production can remarkably reduce the upstream global warming impact of using wood pellets for district heat generation.

  19. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  20. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Short Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the a brief overview of the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems. A full report of this case study is also available.

  1. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

  2. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  3. Using Climate Predictions in Great Lakes Hydrologic Forecasts T. E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakes water levels cause extensive flooding, erosion, and damage to shorelines, shipping, and hydropower the forecasting system utility to decision makers and potential impacts in practical applications. CLIMATE EFFECTS

  4. A simplified fuzzy model to mimic a nonlinear system, applied to a plasma source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Z.; Rayner, J.; Cheetham, A.; Lund, T.

    1997-02-01

    This paper develops a fuzzy model to simulate the behavior of a nonlinear system, in particular a plasma source, with a view to developing a control system for materials processing plasmas employing a helicon source. Genetic algorithms are employed to optimize fuzzy rules related to the parameters of the fuzzy model which contain a set of variable zeros and poles of the nonlinear system as well as its time delay. A practical application of the fuzzy model is to estimate the electron number density of a low-temperature plasma. Based on the membership functions of the input and output, a set of fuzzy rules by which the variable zeros and poles are identified is derived and optimized u sing a genetic algorithm. The principal reason for investigating the proposed fuzzy model is the subsequent computer-aided design of a fuzzy controller to control the nonlinear system. Two experimental results are presented to validate the fuzzy model method. One shows a computer simulation and the other predicts the real-time behavior of the plasma source as its input parameters are varied.

  5. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  6. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01

    Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigeranttheir superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerantfew studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems

  7. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  8. Design Study of the Extraction System of the 3rd Generation ECR Ion Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leitner, M.A.; Lyneis, C.M.; Taylor, C.E.; Wutte, D.; Xie, Z.Q.

    1998-10-06

    A design study for the extraction system of the 3rd Generation super conducting ECR ion source at LBNL is presented. The magnetic design of the ion source has a mirror field of 4 T at the injection and 3 T at the extraction side and a radial field of 2.4 T at the plasma chamber wall. Therefore, the ion beam formation takes place in a strong axial magnetic field. Furthermore the axial field drops from 3 T to 0.4 T within the first 30 cm. The influence of the high magnetic field on the ion beam extraction and matching to the beam line is investigated. The extraction system is first simulated with the 2D ion trajectory code IGUN with an estimated mean charge state of the extracted ion beam. These results are then compared with the 2D code AXCEL-INP, which can simulate the extraction of ions with different charge states. Finally, the influence of the strong magnetic hexapole field is studied with the three dimensional ion optics code KOBRA. The introduced tool set can be used to optimize the extraction system of the super conducting ECR ion source.

  9. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  10. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  11. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  12. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  14. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  15. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  16. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  17. Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jurns, John M.; Bäck, Harald; Gierow, Martin

    2014-01-29

    The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

  18. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  19. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  20. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  1. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  2. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  3. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  4. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  5. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2010-10-01

    A new high-fidelity integrated system method and analysis approach was developed and implemented for consistent and comprehensive evaluations of advanced fuel cycles leading to minimized Transuranic (TRU) inventories. The method has been implemented in a developed code system integrating capabilities of Monte Carlo N - Particle Extended (MCNPX) for high-fidelity fuel cycle component simulations. In this report, a Nuclear Energy System (NES) configuration was developed to take advantage of used fuel recycling and transmutation capabilities in waste management scenarios leading to minimized TRU waste inventories, long-term activities, and radiotoxicities. The reactor systems and fuel cycle components that make up the NES were selected for their ability to perform in tandem to produce clean, safe, and dependable energy in an environmentally conscious manner. The diversity in performance and spectral characteristics were used to enhance TRU waste elimination while efficiently utilizing uranium resources and providing an abundant energy source. A computational modeling approach was developed for integrating the individual models of the NES. A general approach was utilized allowing for the Integrated System Model (ISM) to be modified in order to provide simulation for other systems with similar attributes. By utilizing this approach, the ISM is capable of performing system evaluations under many different design parameter options. Additionally, the predictive capabilities of the ISM and its computational time efficiency allow for system sensitivity/uncertainty analysis and the implementation of optimization techniques.

  6. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    are required to provide reliable power to customers. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future in their territory. Therefore, utilities are very concerned about distribution planning. They would like to use

  7. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  8. Deploying quantum light sources on nanosatellites I: lessons and perspectives on the optical system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rakhitha Chandrasekara; Tang Zhongkan; Tan Yue Chuan; Cliff Cheng; Brigitta Septriani; Kadir Durak; James Anthony Grieve; Alexander Ling

    2015-08-28

    The Small Photon Entangling Quantum System is an integrated instrument where the pump, photon pair source and detectors are combined within a single optical tray and electronics package that is no larger than 10cm x 10cm x 3cm. This footprint enables the instrument to be placed onboard nanosatellites or the CubeLab facility within the International Space Station. The first mission is to understand the different environmental conditions that may affect the operation of an entangled photon source in low Earth orbit. This understanding is crucial for the construction of cost-effective entanglement based experiments that utilize nanosatellite architecture. We will discuss the challenges and lessons we have learned over three years of development and testing of the integrated optical platform and review the perspectives for future advanced experiments.

  9. System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Musick, Charles R. (Castro Valley, CA); Critchlow, Terence (Livermore, CA); Ganesh, Madhaven (San Jose, CA); Slezak, Tom (Livermore, CA); Fidelis, Krzysztof (Brentwood, CA)

    2006-12-19

    A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

  10. A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. I. Banks; S. J. Freedman; J. Wallig; N. Ybarrolaza; A. Gando; Y. Gando; H. Ikeda; K. Inoue; Y. Kishimoto; M. Koga; T. Mitsui; K. Nakamura; I. Shimizu; J. Shirai; A. Suzuki; Y. Takemoto; K. Tamae; K. Ueshima; H. Watanabe; B. D. Xu; H. Yoshida; S. Yoshida; A. Kozlov; C. Grant; G. Keefer; A. Piepke; T. Bloxham; B. K. Fujikawa; K. Han; K. Ichimura; H. Murayama; T. O'Donnell; H. M. Steiner; L. A. Winslow; D. A. Dwyer; R. D. McKeown; C. Zhang; B. E. Berger; C. E. Lane; J. Maricic; T. Miletic; M. Batygov; J. G. Learned; S. Matsuno; M. Sakai; G. A. Horton-Smith; K. E. Downum; G. Gratta; Y. Efremenko; O. Perevozchikov; H. J. Karwowski; D. M. Markoff; W. Tornow; K. M. Heeger; J. A. Detwiler; S. Enomoto; M. P. Decowski

    2015-02-12

    We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealed housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. An infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable's motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.

  11. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  12. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  13. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  14. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  15. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  16. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  18. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  19. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  20. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  1. A transverse bunch by bunch feedback system for Pohang Light Source upgrade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, E.-H.; Kim, D.-T.; Huang, J.-Y.; Shin, S.; Nakamura, T.; Kobayashi, K.

    2014-12-15

    The Pohang Light Source upgrade (PLS-II) project has successfully upgraded the Pohang Light Source (PLS). The main goals of the PLS-II project are to increase the beam energy to 3 GeV, increase the number of insertion devices by a factor of two (20 IDs), increase the beam current to 400 mA, and at the same time reduce the beam emittance to below 10 nm by using the existing PLS tunnel and injection system. Among 20 insertion devices, 10 narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are in operation now and two more in-vacuum undulators are to be installed later. Since these narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are most likely to produce coupled bunch instability by the resistive wall impedance and limit the stored beam current, a bunch by bunch feedback system is implemented to suppress coupled bunch instability in the PLS-II. This paper describes the scheme and performance of the PLS-II bunch by bunch feedback system.

  2. Performance Evaluation of a ground source heat pump system based on ANN and ANFIS models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, W.; Hu, P.; Lei, F.; Zhu, N.; Zhang,J.

    2014-01-01

    .H DONG," MATLAB neural network and application," Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2005. [10] S. A. Kalogirou, "Applications of artificial neural networks in energy systems," Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 40, pp. 1073-1087, 1999. [11... stream_source_info ESL-IC-14-09-38.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 28204 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name ESL-IC-14-09-38.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Performance evaluation of a...

  3. 526 VOLUME 14W E A T H E R A N D F O R E C A S T I N G Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by the automation of largely clerical tasks, allowing the forecasters more time to focus on the forecast problem in Kansas City, numerous major changes took place in forecast products, computer systems, and personnel mi either side of a line from city A to city B). The watch process has played an important role over

  4. Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Akaev, Askar; Korotayev, Andrey V; Fomin, Alexey

    2012-01-01

    countries   Data source: World Bank 2012: NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG. This diagram demonstrates that the oil price

  5. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  6. Global search tool for the Advanced Photon Source Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) database.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quock, D. E. R.; Cianciarulo, M. B.; APS Engineering Support Division; Purdue Univ.

    2007-01-01

    The Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) is a relational database tool that has been implemented at the Advanced Photon Source to maintain an updated account of approximately 600 control system software applications, 400,000 process variables, and 30,000 control system hardware components. To effectively display this large amount of control system information to operators and engineers, IRMIS was initially built with nine Web-based viewers: Applications Organizing Index, IOC, PLC, Component Type, Installed Components, Network, Controls Spares, Process Variables, and Cables. However, since each viewer is designed to provide details from only one major category of the control system, the necessity for a one-stop global search tool for the entire database became apparent. The user requirements for extremely fast database search time and ease of navigation through search results led to the choice of Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX) technology in the implementation of the IRMIS global search tool. Unique features of the global search tool include a two-tier level of displayed search results, and a database data integrity validation and reporting mechanism.

  7. Numerical Simulation of a Latent Heat Storage System of a Solar-Aided Ground Source Heat Pump 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, F.; Zheng, M.; Li, Z.; Lei, B.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the rectangular phase change storage tank (PCST) linked to a solar-aided ground source heat pump (SAGSHP) system is investigated experimentally and theoretically. The container of the phase change material ...

  8. Preliminary Retro-Commissioning Study on Optimal Operation for the Heat Source System of a District Heating Cooling Plant 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shingu, H.; Yoshida, H.; Wang, F.; Ono, E.

    2008-01-01

    In order to improve the energy performance of a district heating and cooling (DHC) plant, the expected performance of the plant is studied using simulations based on mathematical models. A complete heat source system model, equipped with an embedded...

  9. Designing an Online Bus Route Planning System for the City of Edinburgh using Google Maps and Open Source Applications 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cunnane, Alan

    2007-11-20

    The increasing use of web based GIS and Transport GIS systems has facilitated a rise in transport services being provided online to the public. With the emergence of more and more open source software and applications, ...

  10. Operating characteristics of a new ion source for KSTAR neutral beam injection system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Tae-Seong Jeong, Seung Ho; Chang, Doo-Hee; Lee, Kwang Won; In, Sang-Ryul

    2014-02-15

    A new positive ion source for the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research neutral beam injection (KSTAR NBI-1) system was designed, fabricated, and assembled in 2011. The characteristics of the arc discharge and beam extraction were investigated using hydrogen and helium gas to find the optimum operating parameters of the arc power, filament voltage, gas pressure, extracting voltage, accelerating voltage, and decelerating voltage at the neutral beam test stand at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in 2012. Based on the optimum operating condition, the new ion source was then conditioned, and performance tests were primarily finished. The accelerator system with enlarged apertures can extract a maximum 65 A ion beam with a beam energy of 100 keV. The arc efficiency and optimum beam perveance, at which the beam divergence is at a minimum, are estimated to be 1.0 A/kW and 2.5 uP, respectively. The beam extraction tests show that the design goal of delivering a 2 MW deuterium neutral beam into the KSTAR Tokamak plasma is achievable.

  11. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  12. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  13. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  14. MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage the control of a wind power plant, possibly consisting of many individual wind turbines. The goal. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

  15. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  16. Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K.

    2014-01-29

    China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

  17. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity in beta-voltaic nuclear battery system: A preliminary result

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Basar, Khairul, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Riupassa, Robi D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Bachtiar, Reza, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Badrianto, Muldani D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id [Nuclear Physics and Biophysics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung (Indonesia)

    2014-01-01

    It is known that one main problem in the application of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system is its low efficiency. The efficiency of the beta-voltaic nuclear battery system mainly depends on three aspects: source of radioactive radiation, interface between materials in the system and process of converting electron-hole pair to electric current in the semiconductor material. In this work, we show the effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system.

  20. System and method for characterizing synthesizing and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F. (Berkeley, CA); Burnett, Greg C. (Livermore, CA); Ng, Lawrence C. (Danville, CA)

    2003-01-01

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  1. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F; Burnett, Greg C; Ng, Lawrence C

    2013-05-21

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  2. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F. (Berkeley, CA); Burnett, Greg C. (Livermore, CA); Ng, Lawrence C. (Danville, CA)

    2007-10-16

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  3. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08

    .............................................................................................9 Task 1: Developing a database of solar weather data ...............................9 Task 2: Developing the ?dynamic analysis? process .............................. 10 Task 3: Developing a Java applet that presents real-time solar...-computing resources have been recently discovered. Software materials include the programming language ?Java?, the Graphical-User-Interface ?JCreator?, and Rapid Miner. We also make use of publicly available scientific databases that contain a vast plethora...

  4. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  5. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  6. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  12. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  13. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  14. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  15. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  16. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  17. The Poisson alignment reference system implementation at the Advanced Photon Source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Feier, I.

    1998-09-21

    The Poisson spot was established using a collimated laser beam from a 3-mW diode laser. It was monitored on a quadrant detector and found to be very sensitive to vibration and air disturbances. Therefore, for future work we strongly recommend a sealed vacuum tube in which the Poisson line may be propagated. A digital single-axis feedback system was employed to generate an straight line reference (SLR) on the X axis. Pointing accuracy was better than 8 {+-} 2 microns at a distance of 5 m. The digital system was found to be quite slow with a maximum bandwidth of 47 {+-} 9 Hz. Slow drifts were easily corrected but any vibration over 5 Hz was not. We recommend an analog proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller for high bandwidth and smooth operation of the kinematic mirror. Although the Poisson alignment system (PAS) at the Advanced Photon Source is still in its infancy, it already shows great promise as a possible alignment system for the low-energy undulator test line (LEUTL). Since components such as wigglers and quadruples will initially be aligned with respect to each other using conventional means and mounted on some kind of rigid rail, the goal would be to align six to ten such rails over a distance of about 30 m. The PAS could be used to align these rails by mounting a sphere at the joint between two rails. These spheres would need to be in a vacuum pipe to eliminate the refractive effects of air. Each sphere would not be attached to either rail but instead to a flange connecting the vacuum pipes of each rail. Thus the whole line would be made up of straight, rigid segments that could be aligned by moving the joints. Each sphere would have its own detector, allowing the operators to actively monitor the position of each joint and therefore the overall alignment of the system.

  18. Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen sulfide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-01-01

    Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184­191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This paper presents an examination of a simple hydrogen sulfide and natural gas-fed solid oxide fuel cell system. The possibility of utilization of hydrogen sulfide

  19. Analysis of Selection of Single or Double U-bend Pipes in a Ground Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.

    2006-01-01

    The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is widely used because of its energy-saving and environmental-friendly characteristics. The buried pipes heat exchangers play an important role in the whole GSHP system design. However, in most cases, single...

  20. Energy Management of DVS-DPM Enabled Embedded Systems Powered by Fuel Cell-Battery Hybrid Source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kambhampati, Subbarao

    Energy Management of DVS-DPM Enabled Embedded Systems Powered by Fuel Cell-Battery Hybrid Source a policy to maximize the operational lifetime of a DVS-DPM enabled embedded system powered by a fuel cell of the fuel cell (FC), and that the fuel consumption can be minimized by a combination of a load en- ergy

  1. Multiple sources or late injection of short-lived r-nuclides in the early solar system?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Multiple sources or late injection of short-lived r-nuclides in the early solar system? N. Dauphasa abundances of short-lived r-nuclides (107 Pd, 129 I, 182 Hf, and 244 Pu) in the interstellar medium (ISM) and the observed abundances in the early solar system (ESS) conclusively showed that these nuclides cannot simply

  2. Integrated Heat Pump (IHP) System Development - Air-Source IHP Control Strategy and Specifications and Ground-Source IHP Conceptual Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Richard W [ORNL; Rice, C Keith [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL

    2007-05-01

    The integrated heat pump (IHP), as one appliance, can provide space cooling, heating, ventilation, and dehumidification while maintaining comfort and meeting domestic water heating needs in near-zero-energy home (NZEH) applications. In FY 2006 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) completed development of a control strategy and system specification for an air-source IHP. The conceptual design of a ground-source IHP was also completed. Testing and analysis confirm the potential of both IHP concepts to meet NZEH energy services needs while consuming 50% less energy than a suite of equipment that meets current minimum efficiency requirements. This report is in fulfillment of an FY06 DOE Building Technologies (BT) Joule Milestone.

  3. Discussion of an Optimization Scheme for the Ground Source Heat Pump System of HVAC 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mu, W.; Wang, S.; Pan, S.; Shi, Y.

    2006-01-01

    With the implementation of the global sustainable development strategy, people pay more attention to renewable energy resources such as ground source heat pumps. The technology of ground source heat pump is widely applied to heat and cold...

  4. Update on maintenance and service costs of commercial building ground-source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cane, D.; Garnet, J.M.

    2000-07-01

    An earlier paper showed that commercial ground-source heat pump systems have significantly lower service and maintenance costs than alternative HVAC systems. This paper expands on those results by adding 13 more buildings to the original 25 sites and by comparing the results to the latest ASHRAE survey of HVAC maintenance costs. Data from the 38 sites are presented here including total (scheduled and unscheduled) maintenance costs in cents per square foot per year for base cost, in-house, and contractor-provided maintenance. Because some of the new sites had maintenance costs that were much higher than the industry norm, the resulting data are not normally distributed. Analysis (O'Hara Hines 1998) indicated that a log-normal distribution is a better fit; thus, the data are analyzed and presented here as log-normal. The log-mean annual total maintenance costs for the most recent year of the survey ranged from 6.07 cents per square foot to 8.37 cents per square foot for base cost and contractor-provided maintenance, respectively.

  5. Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Future Power Systems: The Role of Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weitemeyer, Stefan; Vogt, Thomas; Agert, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Integrating a high share of electricity from non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources in a power supply system is a challenging task. One option considered in many studies dealing with prospective power systems is the installation of storage devices to balance the fluctuations in power production. However, it is not yet clear how soon storage devices will be needed and how the integration process depends on different storage parameters. Using long-term solar and wind energy power production data series, we present a modelling approach to investigate the influence of storage size and efficiency on the pathway towards a 100% RES scenario. Applying our approach to data for Germany, we found that up to 50% of the overall electricity demand can be met by an optimum combination of wind and solar resources without both curtailment and storage devices if the remaining energy is provided by sufficiently flexible power plants. Our findings show further that the installation of small, but highly efficient storage devic...

  6. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  7. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  8. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  9. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  10. Economical Analysis of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump with Water Thermal Storage System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Z.; Xu, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, J.; Niu, L.

    2006-01-01

    The paper is based on a chilled and heat source for the building which has a total area of 140000m2 in the suburb of Beijing. By comparing the groundwater source heat pump of water thermal storage (GHPWTS) with a conventional chilled and heat source...

  11. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  12. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menart, James A.

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ?Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP systems.

  13. Recovery Act: Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James A Menart, Professor

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ���¢��������Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.���¢������� The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP system

  14. First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aasi, J; Abbott, R; Abbott, T; Abernathy, M R; Accadia, T; Acernese, F; Ackley, K; Adams, C; Adams, T; Addesso, P; Adhikari, R X; Affeldt, C; Agathos, M; Aggarwal, N; Aguiar, O D; Ain, A; Ajith, P; Alemic, A; Allen, B; Allocca, A; Amariutei, D; Andersen, M; Anderson, R; Anderson, S B; Anderson, W G; Arai, K; Araya, M C; Arceneaux, C; Areeda, J; Aston, S M; Astone, P; Aufmuth, P; Aulbert, C; Austin, L; Aylott, B E; Babak, S; Baker, P T; Ballardin, G; Ballmer, S W; Barayoga, J C; Barbet, M; Barish, B C; Barker, D; Barone, F; Barr, B; Barsotti, L; Barsuglia, M; Barton, M A; Bartos, I; Bassiri, R; Basti, A; Batch, J C; Bauchrowitz, J; Bauer, Th S; Behnke, B; Bejger, M; Beker, M G; Belczynski, C; Bell, A S; Bell, C; Bergmann, G; Bersanetti, D; Bertolini, A; Betzwieser, J; Beyersdorf, P T; Bilenko, I A; Billingsley, G; Birch, J; Biscans, S; Bitossi, M; Bizouard, M A; Black, E; Blackburn, J K; Blackburn, L; Blair, D; Bloemen, S; Blom, M; Bock, O; Bodiya, T P; Boer, M; Bogaert, G; Bogan, C; Bond, C; Bondu, F; Bonelli, L; Bonnand, R; Bork, R; Born, M; Boschi, V; Bose, Sukanta; Bosi, L; Bradaschia, C; Brady, P R; Braginsky, V B; Branchesi, M; Brau, J E; Briant, T; Bridges, D O; Brillet, A; Brinkmann, M; Brisson, V; Brooks, A F; Brown, D A; Brown, D D; Brückner, F; Buchman, S; Bulik, T; Bulten, H J; Buonanno, A; Burman, R; Buskulic, D; Buy, C; Cadonati, L; Cagnoli, G; Bustillo, J Calderón; Calloni, E; Camp, J B; Campsie, P; Cannon, K C; Canuel, B; Cao, J; Capano, C D; Carbognani, F; Carbone, L; Caride, S; Castiglia, A; Caudill, S; Cavaglià, M; Cavalier, F; Cavalieri, R; Celerier, C; Cella, G; Cepeda, C; Cesarini, E; Chakraborty, R; Chalermsongsak, T; Chamberlin, S J; Chao, S; Charlton, P; Chassande-Mottin, E; Chen, X; Chen, Y; Chincarini, A; Chiummo, A; Cho, H S; Chow, J; Christensen, N; Chu, Q; Chua, S S Y; Chung, S; Ciani, G; Clara, F; Clark, J A; Cleva, F; Coccia, E; Cohadon, P -F; Colla, A; Collette, C; Colombini, M; Cominsky, L; Constancio, M; Conte, A; Cook, D; Corbitt, T R; Cordier, M; Cornish, N; Corpuz, A; Corsi, A; Costa, C A; Coughlin, M W; Coughlin, S; Coulon, J -P; Countryman, S; Couvares, P; Coward, D M; Cowart, M; Coyne, D C; Coyne, R; Craig, K; Creighton, J D E; Creighton, T D; Crowder, S G; Cumming, A; Cunningham, L; Cuoco, E; Dahl, K; Canton, T Dal; Damjanic, M; Danilishin, S L; D'Antonio, S; Danzmann, K; Dattilo, V; Daveloza, H; Davier, M; Davies, G S; Daw, E J; Day, R; Dayanga, T; Debreczeni, G; Degallaix, J; Deléglise, S; Del Pozzo, W; Denker, T; Dent, T; Dereli, H; Dergachev, V; De Rosa, R; DeRosa, R T; DeSalvo, R; Dhurandhar, S; Díaz, M; Di Fiore, L; Di Lieto, A; Di Palma, I; Di Virgilio, A; Donath, A; Donovan, F; Dooley, K L; Doravari, S; Dossa, S; Douglas, R; Downes, T P; Drago, M; Drever, R W P; Driggers, J C; Du, Z; Dwyer, S; Eberle, T; Edo, T; Edwards, M; Effler, A; Eggenstein, H; Ehrens, P; Eichholz, J; Eikenberry, S S; Endr\\Hoczi, G; Essick, R; Etzel, T; Evans, M; Evans, T; Factourovich, M; Fafone, V; Fairhurst, S; Fang, Q; Farinon, S; Farr, B; Farr, W M; Favata, M; Fehrmann, H; Fejer, M M; Feldbaum, D; Feroz, F; Ferrante, I; Ferrini, F; Fidecaro, F; Finn, L S; Fiori, I; Fisher, R P; Flaminio, R; Fournier, J -D; Franco, S; Frasca, S; Frasconi, F; Frede, M; Frei, Z; Freise, A; Frey, R; Fricke, T T; Fritschel, P; Frolov, V V; Fulda, P; Fyffe, M; Gair, J; Gammaitoni, L; Gaonkar, S; Garufi, F; Gehrels, N; Gemme, G; Genin, E; Gennai, A; Ghosh, S; Giaime, J A; Giardina, K D; Giazotto, A; Gill, C; Gleason, J; Goetz, E; Goetz, R; Gondan, L; González, G; Gordon, N; Gorodetsky, M L; Gossan, S; Goßler, S; Gouaty, R; Gräf, C; Graff, P B; Granata, M; Grant, A; Gras, S; Gray, C; Greenhalgh, R J S; Gretarsson, A M; Groot, P; Grote, H; Grover, K; Grunewald, S; Guidi, G M; Guido, C; Gushwa, K; Gustafson, E K; Gustafson, R; Hammer, D; Hammond, G; Hanke, M; Hanks, J; Hanna, C; Hanson, J; Harms, J; Harry, G M; Harry, I W; Harstad, E D; Hart, M; Hartman, M T; Haster, C -J; Haughian, K; Heidmann, A; Heintze, M; Heitmann, H; Hello, P; Hemming, G; Hendry, M; Heng, I S; Heptonstall, A W; Heurs, M; Hewitson, M; Hild, S; Hoak, D; Hodge, K A; Holt, K; Hooper, S; Hopkins, P; Hosken, D J; Hough, J; Howell, E J; Hu, Y; Huerta, E; Hughey, B; Husa, S; Huttner, S H; Huynh, M; Huynh-Dinh, T; Ingram, D R; Inta, R; Isogai, T; Ivanov, A; Iyer, B R; Izumi, K; Jacobson, M; James, E; Jang, H; Jaranowski, P; Ji, Y; Jiménez-Forteza, F; Johnson, W W; Jones, D I; Jones, R; Jonker, R J G; Ju, L; K, Haris; Kalmus, P; Kalogera, V; Kandhasamy, S; Kang, G; Kanner, J B; Karlen, J; Kasprzack, M; Katsavounidis, E; Katzman, W; Kaufer, H; Kawabe, K; Kawazoe, F; Kéfélian, F; Keiser, G M; Keitel, D; Kelley, D B; Kells, W; Khalaidovski, A; Khalili, F Y; Khazanov, E A; Kim, C; Kim, K; Kim, N; Kim, N G; Kim, Y -M; King, E J; King, P J; Kinzel, D L; Kissel, J S; Klimenko, S; Kline, J; Koehlenbeck, S; Kokeyama, K; Kondrashov, V; Koranda, S

    2014-01-01

    We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for ci...

  15. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objective: Create a new modeling decision? tool that will enable ground source heat pump (GSHP) designers and customers to make better design and purchasing decisions.

  16. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds. The software can be used for area planning purposes. The software contains user's tools to design new load pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I

  17. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  18. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  19. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  20. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  1. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  2. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  3. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  4. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  5. Z .Journal of Marine Systems 16 1998 283295 Sources and cycling of nitrogen in the Gulf of Maine

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Townsend, David W.

    Z .Journal of Marine Systems 16 1998 283­295 Sources and cycling of nitrogen in the Gulf of Maine David W. Townsend ) School of Marine Sciences, 5741 Libby Hall, UniÕersity of Maine, Orono, ME 04469 and nitrogen fluxes in the Gulf of Maine region shows that deep Slope Water that enters the Gulf through

  6. The Use of Aluminum Process Reject Heat as the Source of Energy for a District Heating System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCabe, J.; Olszewski, M.

    1980-01-01

    Rocket Research Company (RRC) is investigating the use of industrial process reject heat as a source of energy for large scale district heating. The District heating System is a network of closed-loop hot water pipes that recover energy from...

  7. Agile Frequency Scaling for Adaptive Power Allocation in Many-core Systems Powered by Renewable Energy Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Mei

    Agile Frequency Scaling for Adaptive Power Allocation in Many-core Systems Powered by Renewable problem in this paper. We attempt to solve this problem by proposing an Adaptive Power Allocation have to undergo a significant change when a renewable energy source is scavenging. APAT has a linear

  8. OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY SPALLATION NEUTRON SOURCE ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS AVAILABILITY AND IMPROVEMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, Roy I [ORNL; Peplov, Vladimir V [ORNL; Wezensky, Mark W [ORNL; Norris, Kevin Paul [ORNL; Barnett, William E [ORNL; Hicks, Jim [ORNL; Weaver, Joey T [ORNL; Moss, John [ORNL; Rust, Kenneth R [ORNL; Mize, Jeffery J [ORNL; Anderson, David E [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    SNS electrical systems have been operational for 4 years. System availability statistics and improvements are presented for AC electrical systems, DC and pulsed power supplies and klystron modulators.

  9. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  10. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  11. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  12. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  13. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  14. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  15. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  16. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  17. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  18. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  19. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  20. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  1. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  2. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  3. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  4. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  5. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  6. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  7. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  8. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  9. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  10. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  11. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  12. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  13. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  14. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  15. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  16. Life cycle assessment of UK pig production systems: the impact of dietary protein source 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stephen, Katie Louise

    2012-06-22

    A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was developed to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing 1 kg pig live weight. A comparison was made between dietary protein sources, i.e. imported soybean meal with the UK protein ...

  17. Statistical method for identification of sources of electromechanical oscillations in power systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McNabb, Patrick James

    2011-06-28

    The use of real-time continuous dynamics monitoring often indicates dynamic behaviour that was not anticipated by model-based studies. In such cases it can be difficult to locate the sources of problems using conventional ...

  18. Getting ahead in sourcing through benchmarking and system dynamic analysis : an aerospace industry perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Yue (Yue Cathy)

    2006-01-01

    Sourcing and purchasing have received renewed attention recently as many supply chains challenge themselves to meet cost reduction goals. These challenges are especially apparent in the high-mix, low volume, and often ...

  19. Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    @compute.dtu.dk www.compute.dtu.dk M.Sc.-2013-87 #12;Summary (English) The Danish power production coming from energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present Thesis

  20. Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, N.

    2014-01-01

    source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building Dr. Na Zhu Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China 2014-09-14 ESL-IC-14-09-18a...-conditioning system: ?Splitting air-conditioner for cooling and coal fired boiler for heating. • Problems: a)Energy efficiency is low b)This system is not environmental friendly 2014/11/11 New energy saving technology ESL-IC-14-09-18a Proceedings of the 14th...

  1. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  2. Conceptual Design, Implementation and Commissioning of Data Acquisition and Control System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soni, Jignesh; Gahlaut, A.; Bansal, G.; Parmar, K. G.; Pandya, K.; Chakraborty, A.; Yadav, Ratnakar; Singh, M. J.; Bandyopadhyay, M.

    2011-09-26

    Negative ion Experimental facility has been setup at IPR. The facility consists of a RF based negative ion source (ROBIN)--procured under a license agreement with IPP Garching, as a replica of BATMAN, presently operating in IPP, 100 kW 1 MHz RF generators and a set of low and high voltage power supplies, vacuum system and diagnostics. 35 keV 10A H- beam is expected from this setup. Automated successful operation of the system requires an advanced, rugged, time proven and flexible control system. Further the data generated in the experimental phase needs to be acquired, monitored and analyzed to verify and judge the system performance. In the present test bed, this is done using a combination of PLC based control system and a PXI based data acquisition system. The control system consists of three different Siemens PLC systems viz. (1) S-7 400 PLC as a Master Control, (2) S-7 300 PLC for Vacuum system control and (3) C-7 PLC for RF generator control. Master control PLC directly controls all the subsystems except the Vacuum system and RF generator. The Vacuum system and RF generator have their own dedicated PLCs (S-7 300 and C-7 respectively). Further, these two PLC systems work as a slave for the Master control PLC system. Communication between PLC S-7 400, S-7 300 and central control room computer is done through Industrial Ethernet (IE). Control program and GUI are developed in Siemens Step-7 PLC programming software and Wincc SCADA software, respectively. There are approximately 150 analog and 200 digital control and monitoring signals required to perform complete closed loop control of the system. Since the source floats at high potential ({approx}35 kV); a combination of galvanic and fiber optic isolation has been implemented. PXI based Data Acquisition system (DAS) is a combination of PXI RT (Real time) system, front end signal conditioning electronics, host system and DAQ program. All the acquisition signals coming from various sub-systems are connected and acquired by the PXI RT system, through only fiber optics link for signal conditioning, electrical isolation and better noise immunity. Real time and Host application programs are developed in LabVIEW and the data shall be stored with a facility of online display of selected parameters. Mathematical calculations and report generation will take place at the end of each beam shot. The paper describes in detail about the design approach, implementation strategy, program development, commissioning and operational test result of ROBIN through a data acquisition and control system.

  3. THE GALACTIC CENTER WEATHER FORECAST

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Moscibrodzka, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154 (United States); Shiokawa, H.; Gammie, C. F. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Dolence, J. C., E-mail: monikam@physics.unlv.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Peyton Hall, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2012-06-10

    In accretion-based models for Sgr A*, the X-ray, infrared, and millimeter emission arise in a hot, geometrically thick accretion flow close to the black hole. The spectrum and size of the source depend on the black hole mass accretion rate M-dot . Since Gillessen et al. have recently discovered a cloud moving toward Sgr A* that will arrive in summer 2013, M-dot may increase from its present value M-dot{sub 0}. We therefore reconsider the 'best-bet' accretion model of Moscibrodzka et al., which is based on a general relativistic MHD flow model and fully relativistic radiative transfer, for a range of M-dot . We find that for modest increases in M-dot the characteristic ring of emission due to the photon orbit becomes brighter, more extended, and easier to detect by the planned Event Horizon Telescope submillimeter Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiment. If M-dot {approx}>8 M-dot{sub 0}, this 'silhouette' of the black hole will be hidden beneath the synchrotron photosphere at 230 GHz, and for M-dot {approx}>16 M-dot{sub 0} the silhouette is hidden at 345 GHz. We also find that for M-dot > 2 M-dot{sub 0} the near-horizon accretion flow becomes a persistent X-ray and mid-infrared source, and in the near-infrared Sgr A* will acquire a persistent component that is brighter than currently observed flares.

  4. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  5. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  6. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    for this systems. Depending on the application, prediction of solar irradiance is beneficial on different timeSHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette Solar World Congress. This portion of the paper is the abstract. The abstract should not exceed 250

  7. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  8. Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for developing op&mal mix of observa&onal systems and NWP for real-&me nowcas&ng and forecas&ng&al end users Developing a Quan.ta.ve Precipita.on Es.ma.on, Nowcas.ng and Streamflow

  9. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  10. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  11. Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. The current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.

  12. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  13. 1 Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: 2 Microsimulation of Land Use and Transport Patterns in Austin, Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    use electricity, natural gas and other energy sources regularly52 for space conditioning and powering1 Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: 2 Microsimulation of Land Use 2030 household energy 26 demands and GHG emissions estimates are compared under five different land use

  14. Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2010-10-12

    High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information...

  15. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  16. A pre-feasibility study to assess the potential of Open Loop Ground Source Heat to heat and cool the proposed Earth Science Systems Building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A pre-feasibility study to assess the potential of Open Loop Ground Source Heat to heat and cool the proposed Earth Science Systems Building at the University of British Columbia Abha Parajulee Kim Smet............................................................1 1.2. History of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems................................................3 1

  17. Multi-Level DC/DC Power Conversion System with Multiple DC Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tolbert, Leon M.

    boost converter. Experimental results are provided to confirm the analysis and control concept. I, instead of connecting all batteries in series as one power source and a bi-directional boost converter. INTRODUCTION Traditional dc/dc converters require at least one inductive component, which is bulky, heavy

  18. Analysis of Energy and Soft Dirt in an Urban Untreated Sewage Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.

    2006-01-01

    When using urban untreated sewage as a cool and heat source of heat pump, it is unavoidable to form soft dirt. Based on the method of exergy, an analysis is given of the impact the dirt growth of a tube-shell sewage heat exchanger will have...

  19. Green power grids: how energy from renewable sources affects network and markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mureddu, Mario; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources, fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and introducing new criticalities that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations causing an increased request of conventional energy sources oriented to balance energy requests on short notices. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources and to their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies among the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations on the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players behavior. Our model is a data-d...

  20. Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Najmabadi, Farrokh

    Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography 2009; published online 10 December 2009 A CO2 laser system with flexible parameters was developed 1010 W/cm2 . Utilizing this CO2 MOPA laser system, high conversion efficiency from laser to in-band 2

  1. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs: FORECASTING EARTH'S SURFACE RESPONSE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Brad Murray, A.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  2. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  3. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  4. Activation process in excitable systems with multiple noise sources: One and two interacting units

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Igor Franovi?; Kristina Todorovi?; Matjaž Perc; Nebojša Vasovi?; Nikola Buri?

    2015-07-12

    We consider the coaction of two distinct noise sources on the activation process of a single or two interacting excitable units represented by the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model. The nonlocal approach involving Hamiltonian formalism is adapted to obtain the most probable activation paths around which the corresponding stochastic trajectories are clustered. The key point lies in introducing the boundary conditions relevant for a class II excitable unit, which further allow an immediate generalization to scenarios involving a couple of units. We also analyze the effects of two noise sources on the statistical features of the activation process, demonstrating how these are modified due to the linear/nonlinear form of interactions. Universal properties of activation process are qualitatively discussed in light of stochastic bifurcation, underlying transition from stochastically stable fixed point to continuous oscillations.

  5. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentric viewing system for light collectionEnergy

  6. In-situ X-ray diffraction system using sources and detectors at fixed angular positions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gibson, David M. (Voorheesville, NY); Gibson, Walter M. (Voorheesville, NY); Huang, Huapeng (Latham, NY)

    2007-06-26

    An x-ray diffraction technique for measuring a known characteristic of a sample of a material in an in-situ state. The technique includes using an x-ray source for emitting substantially divergent x-ray radiation--with a collimating optic disposed with respect to the fixed source for producing a substantially parallel beam of x-ray radiation by receiving and redirecting the divergent paths of the divergent x-ray radiation. A first x-ray detector collects radiation diffracted from the sample; wherein the source and detector are fixed, during operation thereof, in position relative to each other and in at least one dimension relative to the sample according to a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample. A second x-ray detector may be fixed relative to the first x-ray detector according to the a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample, especially in a phase monitoring embodiment of the present invention.

  7. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  8. The permutation entropy rate equals the metric entropy rate for ergodic information sources and ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jose M. Amigo; Matthew B. Kennel; Ljupco Kocarev

    2005-03-21

    Permutation entropy quantifies the diversity of possible orderings of the values a random or deterministic system can take, as Shannon entropy quantifies the diversity of values. We show that the metric and permutation entropy rates--measures of new disorder per new observed value--are equal for ergodic finite-alphabet information sources (discrete-time stationary stochastic processes). With this result, we then prove that the same holds for deterministic dynamical systems defined by ergodic maps on $n$% -dimensional intervals. This result generalizes a previous one for piecewise monotone interval maps on the real line (Bandt, Keller and Pompe, "Entropy of interval maps via permutations",\\textit{Nonlinearity} \\textbf{15}, 1595-602, (2002)), at the expense of requiring ergodicity and using a definition of permutation entropy rate differing in the order of two limits. The case of non-ergodic finite-alphabet sources is also studied and an inequality developed. Finally, the equality of permutation and metric entropy rates is extended to ergodic non-discrete information sources when entropy is replaced by differential entropy in the usual way.

  9. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  10. DIRECT: A System for Mining Data Value Conversion Rules from Disparate Data Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, Weiguo

    2003-02-10

    The successful integration of data from autonomous and heterogeneous systems calls for the resolution of semantic conflicts that may be present. Such conflicts are often ...

  11. System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

    2014-12-30

    A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.

  12. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    freezing in the heat pump. The antifreeze mixture type and concentration has a number of implications for the design and performance of the system. These include the required ground loop heat exchanger length, and the first cost of the system. For example, the required ground loop heat exchanger length and first cost

  13. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  14. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  15. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  16. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  17. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  18. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  19. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  20. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  1. The Application of Frequency-Conversion Technology in Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Reconstruction 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, X.; Song, S.

    2006-01-01

    Deep well pump power is relatively ubiquitous in the groundwater heat pump air-conditioning system in some hotels in Hunan, and the heat pump usually meets the change of the load by throttling. Therefore, frequency conversion technology is proposed...

  2. Source and Extraction for Simultaneous Four-hall Beam Delivery System at CEBAF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazimi, Reza; Wang, Haipeng; Spata, Mike F.; Hansknecht, John C.

    2013-06-01

    A new design for simultaneous delivery of the electron beam to all four 12 GeV CEBAF experimental halls* requires a new 750 MHz RF separator system in the 5th pass extraction region, a 250 MHz repetition rate for its beams, and addition of a fourth laser at the photo-cathode gun. The proposed system works in tandem with the existing 500 MHz RF separators and beam repetition rate on the lower passes. The new 5th pass RF separators will have the same basic design but modified to run at 750 MHz. The change to the beam repetition rate will be at the photo-cathode gun through an innovative upgrade of the seed laser driver system using electro-optic modulators. The new laser system also allows addition of the fourth laser. The new RF separators, the new laser system and other hardware changes required to implement the Four-Hall operation delivery system will be discussed in this paper.

  3. Technical Feasibility Study for Deployment of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard -- Kittery, Maine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hillesheim, M.; Mosey, G.

    2014-11-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, in accordance with the RE-Powering America's Lands initiative, engaged the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct feasibility studies to assess the viability of developing renewable energy generating facilities on contaminated sites. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY) is a United States Navy facility located on a series of conjoined islands in the Piscataqua River between Kittery, ME and Portsmouth, NH. EPA engaged NREL to conduct a study to determine technical feasibility of deploying ground-source heat pump systems to help PNSY achieve energy reduction goals.

  4. Development of a radio frequency ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for neutral beam injection system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choe, Kyumin; Jung, Bongki; Chung, Kyoung-Jae; Hwang, Y. S.; Center for Advance Research in Fusion Reactor Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744

    2014-02-15

    Despite of high plasma density, helicon plasma has not yet been applied to a large area ion source such as a driver for neutral beam injection (NBI) system due to intrinsically poor plasma uniformity in the discharge region. In this study, a radio-frequency (RF) ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for high plasma density with good uniformity has been designed and constructed for the NBI system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus at Seoul National University. The ion source consists of a rectangular plasma expansion chamber (120 × 120 × 120 mm{sup 3}), four helicon plasma injectors with annular permanent magnets and RF power system. Main feature of the source is downstream plasma confinement in the cusp magnetic field configuration which is generated by arranging polarities of permanent magnets in the helicon plasma injectors. In this paper, detailed design of the multi-helicon plasma injector and plasma characteristics of the ion source are presented.

  5. PARAMETRIC STUDY OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM FOR HOT AND HUMID CLMATE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01

    The U-tube sizes and varied thermal conductivity with different grout materials are studied based on the benchmark residential building in Hot-humid Pensacola, Florida. In this study, the benchmark building is metered and the data is used to validate the simulation model. And a list of comparative simulation cases with varied parameter value are simulated to study the importance of pipe size and grout to the ground source heat pump energy consumption. The simulation software TRNSYS [1] is employed to fulfill this task. The results show the preliminary energy saving based on varied parameters. Future work needs to be conducted for the cost analysis, include the installation cost from contractor and materials cost.

  6. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  7. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  8. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  10. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  11. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  12. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  13. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  14. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  15. UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

    2011-10-01

    This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

  16. The Well-Group Distribution of Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Optimized Research 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

    2006-01-01

    It is the key question that how does the well group arrange for application of GWSHP system. Based on the fact that the water movement is the important factor of heat transfer on aquifer, this paper presents two steps analysis method and analyze...

  17. Empirically Examining the Parallelizability of Open Source Software Systems Saleh M. Alnaeli

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maletic, Jonathan I.

    roadblock to adapt and re-engineer systems to better utilize parallelization. This is somewhat contradictory and adapted to better utilize the underlying hardware. Popular programming languages provide little direct, since everyone now has a multicore processor on his or her desk, a renewed focus on the parallelization

  18. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using a low power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W; Habbersett, Robert C

    2013-10-22

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  19. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using low-power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W.; Habbersett, Robert C.

    2014-07-01

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  20. Advanced Soldier Thermoelectric Power System for Power Generation from Battlefield Heat Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendricks, Terry J.; Hogan, Tim; Case, Eldon D.; Cauchy, Charles J.

    2010-09-01

    The U.S. military uses large amounts of fuel during deployments and battlefield operations. This project sought to develop a lightweight, small form-factor, soldier-portable advanced thermoelectric (TE) system prototype to recover and convert waste heat from various deployed military equipment (i.e., diesel generators/engines, incinerators, vehicles, and potentially mobile kitchens), with the ultimate purpose of producing power for soldier battery charging, advanced capacitor charging, and other battlefield power applications. The technical approach employed microchannel technology, a unique “power panel” approach to heat exchange/TE system integration, and newly-characterized LAST (lead-antimony-silver-telluride) and LASTT (lead-antimony-silver-tin-telluride) TE materials segmented with bismuth telluride TE materials in designing a segmented-element TE power module and system. This project researched never-before-addressed system integration challenges (thermal expansion, thermal diffusion, electrical interconnection, thermal and electrical interfaces) of designing thin “power panels” consisting of alternating layers of thin, microchannel heat exchangers (hot and cold) sandwiching thin, segmented-element TE power generators. The TE properties, structurally properties, and thermal fatigue behavior of LAST and LASTT materials were developed and characterized such that the first segmented-element TE modules using LAST / LASTT materials were fabricated and tested at hot-side temperatures = 400 °C and cold-side temperatures = 40 °C. LAST / LASTT materials were successfully segmented with bismuth telluride and electrically interconnected with diffusion barrier materials and copper strapping within the module electrical circuit. A TE system design was developed to produce 1.5-1.6 kW of electrical energy using these new TE modules from the exhaust waste heat of 60-kW Tactical Quiet Generators as demonstration vehicles.

  1. Analysis and Implementation of an Orientation-Aware Source Localization System with Smart Devices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tunon Coronado, Daniel Antonio

    2014-05-29

    , and the circle represents the estimate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 viii LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 3.1 Constants from WGS84, the coordinate system used by GPS. . . . . . 24 4.1 This table presents the results from two well-known tests of normality... include limitations on the amount of information that can be exchanged between sen- sors to achieve a desired level of performance, the computational power dedicated to cooperative signal processing, and the energy that can be used for computation...

  2. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  3. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  4. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  5. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  6. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  7. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  8. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  9. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  10. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  11. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  12. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  14. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  15. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  16. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  17. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  18. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  19. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  20. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  1. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  2. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting

  3. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  6. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  9. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  10. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    have a significant influence on electric power generation by solar energy systems. An efficient use. Examples are the management of electricity grids with high penetration rates from solar sources are a high quality source for irradiance information because of excellent temporal and spatial resolution

  11. Combined Operation of Solar Energy Source Heat Pump, Low-vale Electricity and Floor Radiant System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, G.; Guo, Z.; Hu, S.

    2006-01-01

    accordin g to heat quantity compared charge according to area. 2.3 Government Encouraging Use of New and Re producible Energy In order to save energy in architecture field, government and MINISRY OF CONSTRUCTIO N P.R. CHINA issue a series of laws... has longer life and its life is up to fifty years. 6) Divided calculation heat is easily carried out i n floor radiant heating system. It is helpful to so lve charge question. According to statistic, it can save energy about 20~30% that charge...

  12. Diversity systems for Rayleigh fading channels: an application of multiple description source codes 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Shih-Ming

    1993-01-01

    decoders (Strategy 2). Performance of the 21-, 25-, 29-, and 31-level MDSQ-based sys- tems with R=3. 0 bpss and using both the central and side de- coders (Strategy 2); MRC-MDC: MRC with 8-level LM quan- tizer and MDC. 60 10 Performance of the 39-, 47...-, 53-, and 57-level MDSQ-based sys- tems with II=3. 0 bpss and using both the central and side de- coders (Strategy 2). MRC-MDC: MRC with 8-level LM quan- tizer and MDC. 61 Performance of the MRC-based systems with MDC and NBC, respectively. II=3...

  13. System and Method for Sealing a Vapor Deposition Source - Energy Innovation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking With LivermoreSustainable Landmimic key features ofPortal System

  14. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

    2011-11-09

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to incorporate the uncertainties associated with input, model structure, and parameter into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform the BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameter and model structure. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters show that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of different uncertainty sources and including output error into the MCMC framework are expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  16. Foundation heat exchangers for residential ground source heat pump systems Numerical modeling and experimental validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xing, Lu [Oklahoma State University; Cullin, James [Oklahoma State University; Spitler, Jeffery [Oklahoma State University; Im, Piljae [ORNL; Fisher, Daniel [Oklahoma State University

    2011-01-01

    A new type of ground heat exchanger that utilizes the excavation often made for basements or foundations has been proposed as an alternative to conventional ground heat exchangers. This article describes a numerical model that can be used to size these foundation heat exchanger (FHX) systems. The numerical model is a two-dimensional finite-volume model that considers a wide variety of factors, such as soil freezing and evapotranspiration. The FHX numerical model is validated with one year of experimental data collected at an experimental house located near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model shows good agreement with the experimental data-heat pump entering fluid temperatures typically within 1 C (1.8 F) - with minor discrepancies due to approximations, such as constant moisture content throughout the year, uniform evapotranspiration over the seasons, and lack of ground shading in the model.

  17. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  18. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  19. Operational characteristics of the J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system for a spallation neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tatsumoto, Hideki; Ohtsu, Kiichi; Aso, Tomokazu; Kawakami, Yoshihiko; Teshigawara, Makoto

    2014-01-29

    The J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system provides supercritical hydrogen with the para-hydrogen concentration of more than 99 % and the temperature of less than 20 K to three moderators so as to provide cold pulsed neutron beams of a higher neutronic performance. Furthermore, the temperature fluctuation of the feed hydrogen stream is required to be within ± 0.25 K. A stable 300-kW proton beam operation has been carried out since November 2012. The para-hydrogen concentrations were measured during the cool-down process. It is confirmed that para-hydrogen always exists in the equilibrium concentration because of the installation of an ortho-para hydrogen convertor. Propagation characteristics of temperature fluctuation were measured by temporarily changing the heater power under off-beam condition to clarify the effects of a heater control for thermal compensation on the feed temperature fluctuation. The experimental data gave an allowable temperature fluctuation of ± 1.05 K. It is clarified through a 286-kW and a 524-kW proton beam operations that the heater control would be applicable for the 1-MW proton beam operation by extrapolating from the experimental data.

  20. Activation process in excitable systems with multiple noise sources: Large number of units

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Igor Franovi?; Matjaž Perc; Kristina Todorovi?; Srdjan Kosti?; Nikola Buri?

    2015-07-12

    We study the activation process in large assemblies of type II excitable units whose dynamics is influenced by two independent noise terms. The mean-field approach is applied to explicitly demonstrate that the assembly of excitable units can itself exhibit macroscopic excitable behavior. In order to facilitate the comparison between the excitable dynamics of a single unit and an assembly, we introduce three distinct formulations of the assembly activation event. Each formulation treats different aspects of the relevant phenomena, including the threshold-like behavior and the role of coherence of individual spikes. Statistical properties of the assembly activation process, such as the mean time-to-first pulse and the associated coefficient of variation, are found to be qualitatively analogous for all three formulations, as well as to resemble the results for a single unit. These analogies are shown to derive from the fact that global variables undergo stochastic bifurcation from the stochastically stable fixed point to continuous oscillations. Local activation processes are analyzed in light of competition between the noise-led and the relaxation-driven dynamics. We also briefly report on a system-size anti-resonant effect displayed by the mean time-to-first pulse.

  1. Integration of Uncertainty Information into Power System Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Samaan, Nader A.; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Hafen, Ryan P.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

    2011-10-10

    Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, loss of transmission lines, and others. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critical important to build knowledge of major sources of uncertainty, learn how to simulate them, and then incorporate this information into the decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive view on the sources of uncertainty in power systems, important characteristics, available models, and ways of their integration into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).

  2. Results of the Development of Humanitarian Landmine Detection System by a Compact Fusion Neutron Source and Dual Sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoshikawa, Kiyoshi; Masuda, Kai; Takamatsu, Teruhisa; Yamamoto, Yasushi; Toku, Hisayuki; Fujimoto, Takashi [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Hotta, Eiki; Yamauchi, Kunihito [Department of Energy Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259-G3-36 Nagatsuda-cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 226-8502 (Japan); Ohnishi, Masami; Osawa, Hodaka [Department of Electrical Engineering, Kansai University, 3-3-35 Yamate-cho, Suita, Osaka 564-8680 (Japan); Shiroya, Seiji; Misawa, Tsuyoshi; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki [Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University, Kumatori-cho, Sennan-gun, Osaka 590-0494 (Japan); Kubo, Yoshikazu; Doi, Toshiro [JGC Corporation, Minato-Mirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2009-03-10

    A 5-year task is described on the research and development of the advanced humanitarian landmine detection system by using a compact discharge-type fusion neutron source called IECF (Inertial-Electrostatic Confinement Fusion) device and 3 dual sensors made of BGO and NaI(Tl). With 10{sup 7} D-D neutrons/s stably produced in steady-state mode, H-2.2 MeV, N-5.3, 10.8 MeV {gamma} rays from (n,{gamma}) reaction with hydrogen and nitrogen atoms in the explosives are measured for two kinds of explosives (TNT, RDX), under the conditions of three different buried depths, and soil moistures each. Final probabilities of detection for arid soil are found to be 100% in the present tests. The neutron backscattering method is also found to be efficient.

  3. Optimising PICCANTE -- an open source particle-in-cell code for advanced simulations on Tier-0 systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sgattoni, Andrea; Sinigardi, Stefano; Marocchino, Alberto; Macchi, Andrea; Weinberg, Volker; Karmakar, Anupam

    2015-01-01

    We discuss a detailed strong and weak scaling analysis of PICCANTE, an open source, massively parallel, fully-relativistic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code. PIC codes are widely used in plasma physics and astrophysics to study the cases where kinetic effects are relevant. PICCANTE is primarily developed to study laser-plasma interaction. Within a PRACE Preparatory Access Project, various revisions of different routines of the code have been analysed on the HPC systems JUQUEEN at J\\"ulich Supercomputing Centre (JSC), Germany, and FERMI at CINECA, Italy, to improve the parallel scalability and the I/O performance of the application. The diagnostic tool Scalasca is used to filter out suboptimal routines. Different output strategies are discussed. The detailed strong and weak scaling behaviour of the improved code is presented in comparison with the original version of the code.

  4. Towards a Dynamic Data Driven Application System for Wildfire Simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Knyazev, Andrew

    -time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The system should change the forecast when new data is received (DDDAS) for short-range forecast of wildfire behavior with models steered by real-time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The forecast should be based on all available data, such as fuel maps

  5. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  6. Source: Proceedings of the US-Korea Workshop on Smart Structural Systems, Pusan, Korea, August 23-Laboratory and Field Validation of a Wireless Sensing Unit Design for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lynch, Jerome P.

    Source: Proceedings of the US-Korea Workshop on Smart Structural Systems, Pusan, Korea, August 23 with a series of tests conducted in the laboratory and the field. In particular, the Alamosa Canyon Bridge of installing a monitoring system in the Tsing Ma suspension bridge was reported over $27,000 per sensing

  7. Probing SZ Source Detection with Gasdynamical Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. Richard Bond; Marcelo I. Ruetalo; James W. Wadsley; Michael D. Gladders

    2002-05-30

    The huge worldwide investment in CMB experiments should make the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect a key probe of the cosmic web in the near future. For the promise to be realized, substantial development of simulation and analysis tools to relate observation to theory is needed. The high nonlinearity and dissipative/feedback gas physics lead to highly non-Gaussian patterns that are much more difficult to analyze than Gaussian primary anisotropies for which the procedures are reasonably well developed. Historical forecasts for what CMB experiments might see used semi-analytic tools, including large scale map constructions, with localized and simplified pressure structures distributed on a point process of (clustered) sources. Hydro studies beyond individual cluster/supercluster systems were inadequate, but now large-volume simulations with high resolution are beginning to shift the balance. We illustrate this by applying ``Gasoline'' (parallelized Tree+SPH) computations to construct SZ maps and derive statistical measures. We believe rapid Monte Carlo simulations using parameterized templates centered on point processes informed by optical and other means on the observational side, and by hydro simulations on the theory side, should play an important role in pipelines to analyze the new SZ field data. We show that localized sources should dominate upcoming SZ experiments, identify sources in the maps under filtering and noise levels expected for these experiments, use the RCS photometric optical survey as an example of redshift localization, and discuss whether cosmic web patterns such as superclusters can be enhanced when such extra source information is supplied.

  8. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  9. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  10. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  11. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  12. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  13. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  14. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  15. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  16. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  17. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  18. Electron capture and electron transport by fast ions penetrating solids: An open quantum system approach with sources and sinks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seliger, Marek; Reinhold, Carlos O.; Minami, Tatsuya; Schultz, David R.; Pindzola, Michael S.; Yoshida, Shuhei; Burgdoerfer, Joachim; Lamour, Emily; Rozet, Jean-Pierre; Vernhet, Dominique

    2007-03-15

    We present a joint theoretical and experimental study of the time evolution of electronic states of highly charged hydrogenic ions formed by capture during transmission through solids as they undergo multiple collisions and radiative decay. For this transport problem we have developed an inhomogeneous nonunitary Lindblad master equation that allows for a description of open quantum systems with both sinks (electron loss) and source (capture) present. We apply this theoretical framework to study transient coherences created in electron capture by 13.6 MeV/amu Ar{sup 18+} ions transmitted through amorphous carbon foils and decoherence during subsequent interaction with the foil. In the limit of thin targets we can directly probe electron capture cross sections under single collision conditions, while for thicker targets we follow the partially coherent dynamics of the open quantum system in interaction with the solid as a function of interaction time. The calculated results are in close agreement with experimental data obtained at the LISE facility in GANIL. Photon intensities from excited argon ions were determined through high resolution x-ray spectroscopy in which individual fine structure components were resolved. Measurements were performed for a wide range of carbon foil thickness to study the time development of the excited state populations.

  19. Electron Capture and Electron Transport by Fast Ions Penetrating Solids: An open Quantum System Approach with Sources and Sinks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seliger, M.

    2007-03-01

    We present a joint theoretical and experimental study of the time evolution of electronic states of highly charged hydrogenic ions formed by capture during transmission through solids as they undergo multiple collisions and radiative decay. For this transport problem we have developed an inhomogeneous nonunitary Lindblad master equation that allows for a description of open quantum systems with both sinks (electron loss) and source (capture) present. We apply this theoretical framework to study transient coherences created in electron capture by 13.6 MeV/amu Ar18+ ions transmitted through amorphous carbon foils and decoherence during subsequent interaction with the foil. In the limit of thin targets we can directly probe electron capture cross sections under single collision conditions, while for thicker targets we follow the partially coherent dynamics of the open quantum system in interaction with the solid as a function of interaction time. The calculated results are in close agreement with experimental data obtained at the LISE facility in GANIL. Photon intensities from excited argon ions were determined through high resolution x-ray spectroscopy in which individual fine structure components were resolved. Measurements were performed for a wide range of carbon foil thickness to study the time development of the excited state populations.

  20. Method and system for determining depth distribution of radiation-emitting material located in a source medium and radiation detector system for use therein

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benke, Roland R. (Helotes, TX); Kearfott, Kimberlee J. (Ann Arbor, MI); McGregor, Douglas S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

    2003-03-04

    A method, system and a radiation detector system for use therein are provided for determining the depth distribution of radiation-emitting material distributed in a source medium, such as a contaminated field, without the need to take samples, such as extensive soil samples, to determine the depth distribution. The system includes a portable detector assembly with an x-ray or gamma-ray detector having a detector axis for detecting the emitted radiation. The radiation may be naturally-emitted by the material, such as gamma-ray-emitting radionuclides, or emitted when the material is struck by other radiation. The assembly also includes a hollow collimator in which the detector is positioned. The collimator causes the emitted radiation to bend toward the detector as rays parallel to the detector axis of the detector. The collimator may be a hollow cylinder positioned so that its central axis is perpendicular to the upper surface of the large area source when positioned thereon. The collimator allows the detector to angularly sample the emitted radiation over many ranges of polar angles. This is done by forming the collimator as a single adjustable collimator or a set of collimator pieces having various possible configurations when connected together. In any one configuration, the collimator allows the detector to detect only the radiation emitted from a selected range of polar angles measured from the detector axis. Adjustment of the collimator or the detector therein enables the detector to detect radiation emitted from a different range of polar angles. The system further includes a signal processor for processing the signals from the detector wherein signals obtained from different ranges of polar angles are processed together to obtain a reconstruction of the radiation-emitting material as a function of depth, assuming, but not limited to, a spatially-uniform depth distribution of the material within each layer. The detector system includes detectors having different properties (sensitivity, energy resolution) which are combined so that excellent spectral information may be obtained along with good determinations of the radiation field as a function of position.