National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasting system sources

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  7. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  8. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  9. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  10. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  13. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  15. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  16. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  17. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  19. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  20. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  1. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  2. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  3. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, Brian N. (Yakima, WA); Wu, Xin Di (San Jose, CA)

    1998-01-01

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metalorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition.

  4. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, B.N.; Wu, X.D.

    1998-10-13

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metallorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition. 13 figs.

  5. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  7. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  8. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  9. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  10. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  11. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  12. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  14. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  15. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  16. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, Charles W.; Beahm, Edward C.; Parker, George W.

    1995-01-01

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results.

  17. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, C.W.; Beahm, E.C.; Parker, G.W.

    1995-04-25

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results. 4 figs.

  18. High efficiency source coupler for optical waveguide illumination system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Siminovitch, Michael J.

    2000-01-01

    A fiber optic or optical waveguide illumination system includes a source coupling system. The source coupling system includes an optical channel with an internal cavity. A light source is disposed inside the driving circuit. Coupling losses are minimized by placing the light source within the optical channel. The source cavity and the source optical channel can be shaped to enhance the amount of light captured in the channel by total internal reflection. Multiple light distribution waveguides can be connected to the source coupling channel to produce an illumination system.

  19. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  20. The use of predictive lithostratigraphy to significantly improve the ability to forecast reservoir and source rocks? Final CRADA report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doctor, R. D.; Moore, T. L.; Energy Systems

    2010-06-29

    The purpose of this CRADA, which ended in 2003, was to make reservoir and source rock distribution significantly more predictable by quantifying the fundamental controls on stratigraphic heterogeneity. To do this, the relationships among insolation, climate, sediment supply, glacioeustasy, and reservoir and source rock occurrence were investigated in detail. Work current at the inception of the CRADA had uncovered previously unrecognized associations among these processes and properties that produce a phenomenon that, when properly analyzed, will make lithostratigraphic variability (including texture, porosity, and permeability) substantially more understandable. Computer climate simulations of selected time periods, compared with the global distribution of paleoclimatic indicators, documented spatial and temporal climate changes as a function of insolation and provided quantitative changes in runoff, lake level, and glacioeustasy. The effect of elevation and climate on sediment yield was assessed numerically by analyzing digital terrain and climate data. The phase relationships of climate, yield, and glacioeustatic cycles from the Gulf of Mexico and/or other sedimentary basins were assessed by using lacunarity, a statistical technique.

  1. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  2. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  3. Power conditioning system for energy sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mazumder, Sudip K.; Burra, Rajni K.; Acharya, Kaustuva

    2008-05-13

    Apparatus for conditioning power generated by an energy source includes an inverter for converting a DC input voltage from the energy source to a square wave AC output voltage, and a converter for converting the AC output voltage from the inverter to a sine wave AC output voltage.

  4. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-07-01

    Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

  5. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, Fang Zheng; Lai, Jih-Sheng

    1997-01-01

    A voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means.

  6. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of ... The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of ...

  7. Illumination system having a plurality of movable sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sweatt, William C.; Kubiak, Glenn D.

    2002-01-01

    An illumination system includes several discharge sources that are multiplexed together to reduce the amount of debris generated. The system includes: (a) a first electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of first activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a first movable carriage; (b) a second electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of second activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a second movable carriage; (c) means for directing electromagnetic radiation from the first electromagnetic radiation source array and electromagnetic radiation from the second electromagnetic radiation source array toward a common optical path; (d) means for synchronizing (i) the movements of the first movable carriage and of the second movable carriage and (ii) the activation of the first electromagnetic radiation source array and of the second electromagnetic radiation source array to provide an essentially continuous illumination of electromagnetic radiation along the common optical path.

  8. Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavriyev, Anton

    2014-03-27

    An alternative synchronization technique – one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

  9. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  10. Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kulp, Thomas Jan; Kliner, Dahv A. V.; Sommers, Ricky; Goers, Uta-Barbara; Armstrong, Karla M.

    2006-12-19

    The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

  11. Method and system of integrating information from multiple sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alford, Francine A.; Brinkerhoff, David L.

    2006-08-15

    A system and method of integrating information from multiple sources in a document centric application system. A plurality of application systems are connected through an object request broker to a central repository. The information may then be posted on a webpage. An example of an implementation of the method and system is an online procurement system.

  12. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  13. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  14. Connecting renewable power sources into the system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wetzler, F.U.

    1982-11-01

    The many technical, legal, and economic issues that must be overcome before windmills, fuel cells, and photovoltaics can serve existing grids ae discusssed. Distributed storage and generation sources (DSGs) consist of energy converters to transform sun, wind, or chemical energy into electricity; a power conditioner to convert dc to ac; relays, breakers, and fuses for equipment protection and personnel safety; and appropriate load-metering equipment for billing customers. Aside from windmills and windfarms, there are few utility owned DSGs. The Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (1978) requires utilities to permit the connection to their power grids of private DSGs with capacities of up to 80 MW. In addition, the utilities must purchase the power from the DSG owned at ''just and reasonable rates'' and offer to supply backup power if the owner's facility malfunctions. Before connecting to a utility line, a DSG entrepreneur must meet certain specifications spelled out by the participating utility. Long-range power-distribution strategies will be needed to assess various automated distribution schemes that have been proposed, together with communication techniques to control and coordinate the small and large DSG within a highly complex power grid.

  15. Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

    1985-06-01

    The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

  16. Industrial market for sulfur dioxide emission-control systems. Final report. [Forecasting to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-08-01

    Under the postulated EIA medium world oil price scenario, in which oil prices are projected to rise at a real rate of 2.2% per year, coal will represent from 78 to 91% of MFBI fuel consumption by the year 2000, up from the present 16%. This increase would occur even in the absence of FUA, because the cost of coal is substantially lower than the cost of oil or gas. Much of this market will develop in the relatively near to intermediate term (before 1990). Annual installations will be much lower (by about 40%) after that period, reflecting a lower overall steam demand growth rate and the fact that much of the discretionary conversion of gas and oil boilers to coal will have been completed. About 22% of the sales will be for discretionary conversion of oil and gas boilers still having some useful life; the rest will be for nondiscretionary expansion or replacement of worn-out boilers. Under the postulated cost and performance estimates for the competing coal-burning technologies, we expect that AFB combustors and lime spray dryer FGD systems will dominate the market, with 42% of the market in our base case scenario. If the attitudes of the industrial decision-makers are factored into the analyses, particularly their aversion to FGD systems with wet wastes, the AFB and lime spray dryer technologies will capture as much as 73% of the coal-burning market. Costs for the various flue gas desulfurization (FGD) technologies were projected to be sufficiently close that the selection of one over another will depend on site-specific factors such as the availability of waste disposal facilities, the demonstrated reliability of the particular systems, and the vendor's reputation.

  17. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, John H.; Stirling, William L.

    1986-01-01

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  18. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, J.H.; Stirling, W.L.

    1985-03-04

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  19. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  1. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  2. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  3. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  4. Guidelines for the implementation of an open source information system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.

    1995-08-01

    This work was initially performed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to help with the Open Source Task of the 93 + 2 Initiative; however, the information should be of interest to anyone working with open sources. The authors cover all aspects of an open source information system (OSIS) including, for example, identifying relevant sources, understanding copyright issues, and making information available to analysts. They foresee this document as a reference point that implementors of a system could augment for their particular needs. The primary organization of this document focuses on specific aspects, or components, of an OSIS; they describe each component and often make specific recommendations for its implementation. This document also contains a section discussing the process of collecting open source data and a section containing miscellaneous information. The appendix contains a listing of various providers, producers, and databases that the authors have come across in their research.

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  6. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  7. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of

  8. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  9. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tainzhen; Liu, Xaiobing

    2009-11-01

    With the current movement toward net zero energy buildings, many technologies are promoted with emphasis on their superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerant flow (VRF) and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are probably the most competitive technologies among these. However, there are few studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems compared with GSHP systems. In this article, a preliminary comparison of energy efficiency between the air-source VRF and GSHP systems is presented. The computer simulation results show that GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRF system for conditioning a small office building in two selected US climates. In general, GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRV system, especially when the building has significant heating loads. For buildings with less heating loads, the GSHP system could still perform better than the air-source VRF system in terms of energy efficiency, but the resulting energy savings may be marginal.

  10. Small Business Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration |

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    (NNSA) Sourcing System NNSA is implementing a system housing small businesses that have participated in our Opportunity Sessions, and have completed the NNSA Capabilities Questionnaire. Information is gathered relevant to the performance of each small business and included in the system. Among the information contained is: Active contract vehicles Past performance information Primary performance areas Security clearance information Teaming partners As the database becomes more fully

  11. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  12. Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bornstein, Jonathan G.; Friedman, Peter S.

    1985-01-01

    A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

  13. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, W.K.; Stirling, W.L.

    1979-10-25

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employing crossed electric and magnetic fields, separates the electrons from the ions as they are extracted from the ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90/sup 0/ to each other, the electrons remain at approximately the electrical potential at which they were generated. The electromagnetic forces cause the ions to be accelerated to the full accelerating supply voltage energy while being deflected through an angle of less than 90/sup 0/. The electrons precess out of the accelerating field region into an electron recovery region where they are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply energy. It is possible, by this method, to collect > 90% of the electrons extracted along with the negative ions from a negative ion source beam at < 4% of full energy.

  14. NiSource Energy Technologies Inc.: System Integration of Distributed Power for Complete Building Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2003-10-01

    Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

  15. Central airport energy systems using alternate energy sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-07-01

    The purpose of this project was to develop the concept of a central airport energy system designed to supply energy for aircraft ground support and terminal complex utility systems using municipal waste as a fuel. The major task was to estimate the potential for reducing aircraft and terminal fuel consumption by the use of alternate renewable energy sources. Additional efforts included an assessment of indirect benefits of reducing airport atmospheric and noise pollution.

  16. Combined Electric Machine and Current Source Inverter Drive System - Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovation Portal Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Energy Analysis Energy Analysis Advanced Materials Advanced Materials Find More Like This Return to Search Combined Electric Machine and Current Source Inverter Drive System Oak Ridge National Laboratory Contact ORNL About This Technology Publications: PDF Document Publication 11-G00249_ID2505.pdf (764 KB) Technology Marketing SummaryThis technology is a drive system that includes a permanent magnet-less (PM-L) electric motor

  17. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  19. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  20. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  1. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  2. Electric machine and current source inverter drive system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hsu, John S

    2014-06-24

    A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

  3. Cesium Delivery System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Pandya, K.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382 428 (India); Bandyopadhyay, M.; Chakraborty, A.; Singh, M. J. [ITER- India, Institute for Plasma Research, A-29, Sector 25, GIDC, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2011-09-26

    The technique of surface production of negative ions using cesium, Cs, has been efficiently exploited over the years for producing negative ion beams with increased current densities from negative ion sources used on neutral beam lines. Deposition of Cs on the source walls and the plasma grid lowers the work function and therefore enables a higher yield of H{sup -}, when hydrogen particles (H and/or H{sub x}{sup +}) strike these surfaces.A single driver RF based (100 kW, 1 MHz) negative ion source test bed, ROBIN, is being set up at IPR under a technical collaboration between IPR and IPP, Germany. The optimization of the Cs oven design to be used on this facility as well as multidriver sources is underway. The characterization experiments of such a Cs delivery system with a 1 g Cs inventory have been carried out using surface ionization technique. The experiments have been carried by delivering Cs into a vacuum chamber without plasma. The linear motion of the surface ionization detector, SID, attached with a linear motion feedthrough allows measuring the angular distribution of the Cs coming out of the oven. Based on the experimental results, a Cs oven for ROBIN has been proposed. The Cs oven design and experimental results of the prototype Cs oven are reported and discussed in the paper.

  4. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  5. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  7. Optical laser systems at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Minitti, Michael P.; Robinson, Joseph S.; Coffee, Ryan N.; Edstrom, Steve; Gilevich, Sasha; Glownia, James M.; Granados, Eduardo; Hering, Philippe; Hoffmann, Matthias C.; Miahnahri, Alan; et al

    2015-04-22

    Ultrafast optical lasers play an essential role in exploiting the unique capabilities of recently commissioned X-ray free-electron laser facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Pump–probe experimental techniques reveal ultrafast dynamics in atomic and molecular processes and reveal new insights in chemistry, biology, material science and high-energy-density physics. This manuscript describes the laser systems and experimental methods that enable cutting-edge optical laser/X-ray pump–probe experiments to be performed at LCLS.

  8. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, William K.; Stirling, William L.

    1982-01-01

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employs crossed electric and magnetic fields to separate the electrons from ions as they are extracted from a negative ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full kinetic energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90.degree. to each other, the electrons are separated from the plasma and remain at approximately the electrical potential of the generator in which they were generated. The electrons migrate from the ion beam path in a precessing motion out of the ion accelerating field region into an electron recovery region provided by a specially designed electron collector electrode. The electron collector electrode is uniformly spaced from a surface of the ion generator which is transverse to the direction of migration of the electrons and the two surfaces are contoured in a matching relationship which departs from a planar configuration to provide an electric field component in the recovery region which is parallel to the magnetic field thereby forcing the electrons to be directed into and collected by the electron collector electrode. The collector electrode is maintained at a potential slightly positive with respect to the ion generator so that the electrons are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply voltage energy.

  9. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  10. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  12. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  13. SOURCE?

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    on the direction and maintanence of the core code * The code base is platform- neutral ... Its core function is to allow users to merge multiple sources of building energy data into ...

  14. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  15. Multiple delivery cesium oven system for negative ion sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Bhartiya, S.; Pandya, K.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, M. J.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382428 (India)

    2012-02-15

    Distribution of cesium in large negative ion beam sources to be operational in ITER, is presently based on the use of three or more cesium ovens, which operate simultaneously and are controlled remotely. However, use of multiple Cs ovens simultaneously is likely to pose difficulties in operation and maintenance of the ovens. An alternate method of Cs delivery, based on a single oven distribution system is proposed as one which could reduce the need of simultaneous operation of many ovens. A proof of principle experiment verifying the concept of a multinozzle distributor based Cs oven has been carried out at Institute for Plasma Research. It is also observed that the Cs flux is not controlled by Cs reservoir temperature after few hours of operation but by the temperature of the distributor which starts behaving as a Cs reservoir.

  16. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System April 4, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis Ball State ...

  17. Case Study for a Ground Source Heat Pump System using Mine Water...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    System using Mine Water as Heat Sink and Source Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Case Study for a Ground Source Heat Pump System using Mine Water as Heat Sink and ...

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  19. Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

    2010-02-01

    The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

  20. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  1. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  2. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  3. Simulation of H{sup -} ion source extraction systems for the Spallation Neutron Source with Ion Beam Simulator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kalvas, T.; Tarvainen, O.; Welton, R. F.; Han, B. X.; Stockli, M. P.

    2012-02-15

    A three-dimensional ion optical code IBSimu, which is being developed at University of Jyvaeskylae, features positive and negative ion plasma extraction models and self-consistent space charge calculation. The code has been utilized for modeling the existing extraction system of the H{sup -} ion source of the Spallation Neutron Source. Simulation results are in good agreement with experimental data. A high-current extraction system with downstream electron dumping at intermediate energy has been designed. According to the simulations it provides lower emittance compared to the baseline system at H{sup -} currents exceeding 40 mA. A magnetic low energy beam transport section consisting of two solenoids has been designed to transport the beam from the alternative electrostatic extraction systems to the radio frequency quadrupole.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  5. Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

  6. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  7. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  8. Method and system for imaging a radiation source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Myjak, Mitchell J. [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. [Kennewick, WA

    2011-04-19

    A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

  9. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  10. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  11. Plasma phenomenology in astrophysical systems: Radio-sources and jets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Montani, Giovanni; Petitta, Jacopo

    2014-06-15

    We review the plasma phenomenology in the astrophysical sources which show appreciable radio emissions, namely Radio-Jets from Pulsars, Microquasars, Quasars, and Radio-Active Galaxies. A description of their basic features is presented, then we discuss in some details the links between their morphology and the mechanisms that lead to the different radio-emissions, investigating especially the role played by the plasma configurations surrounding compact objects (Neutron Stars, Black Holes). For the sake of completeness, we briefly mention observational techniques and detectors, whose structure set them apart from other astrophysical instruments. The fundamental ideas concerning angular momentum transport across plasma accretion disks—together with the disk-source-jet coupling problem—are discussed, by stressing their successes and their shortcomings. An alternative scenario is then inferred, based on a parallelism between astrophysical and laboratory plasma configurations, where small-scale structures can be found. We will focus our attention on the morphology of the radio-jets, on their coupling with the accretion disks and on the possible triggering phenomena, viewed as profiles of plasma instabilities.

  12. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  13. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  14. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  15. System and Method for Sealing a Vapor Deposition Source - Energy...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An apparatus for movably sealing a deposition chamber from the rest of a fabrication ... there is a need to seal the deposition chamber from the rest of the system under vacuum. ...

  16. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  17. COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01

    In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

  18. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  20. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  1. ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

    2010-09-01

    The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  3. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  4. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  6. System for recovery of daughter isotopes from a source material

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tranter, Troy J [Idaho Falls, ID; Todd, Terry A [Aberdeen, ID; Lewis, Leroy C [Idaho Falls, ID; Henscheid, Joseph P [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-08-04

    A method of separating isotopes from a mixture containing at least two isotopes in a solution is disclosed. A first isotope is precipitated and is collected from the solution. A daughter isotope is generated and collected from the first isotope. The invention includes a method of producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product from a material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232. A solution is formed containing nitric acid and the material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232, and iodate is added to form a thorium iodate precipitate. A supernatant is separated from the thorium iodate precipitate and a second volume of nitric acid is added to the thorium iodate precipitate. The thorium iodate precipitate is stored and a decay product comprising actinium-225 and bismuth-213 is generated in the second volume of nitric acid, which is then separated from the thorium iodate precipitate, filtered, and treated using at least one chromatographic procedure. A system for producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product is also disclosed.

  7. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  8. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  9. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  10. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  11. Status of the SNS H- ion source and low-energy beam transport system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keller, R.; Thomae, R.; Stockli, M.; Welton, R.

    2002-04-01

    The ion source and Low-Energy Transport (LEBT) system that will provide H{sup -} ion beams to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Front End and the accelerator chain have been developed into a mature unit that will satisfy the operational needs through the commissioning and early operating phases of SNS. The ion source was derived from the SSC ion source, and many of its original features have been improved to achieve reliable operation at 6% duty factor, producing beam currents in the 35-mA range and above. The LEBT utilizes purely electrostatic focusing and includes static beam-steering elements and a pre-chopper. This paper will discuss the latest design features of the ion source and LEBT, give performance data for the integrated system, and report on relevant commissioning results obtained with the SNS RFQ accelerator. Perspectives for further improvements will be outlined in concluding remarks.

  12. Test bench to commission a third ion source beam line and a newly designed extraction system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Winkelmann, T.; Cee, R.; Haberer, T.; Naas, B.; Peters, A.

    2012-02-15

    The HIT (Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center) is the first hospital-based treatment facility in Europe where patients can be irradiated with protons and carbon ions. Since the commissioning starting in 2006 two 14.5 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion sources are routinely used to produce a variety of ion beams from protons up to oxygen. In the future a helium beam for regular patient treatment is requested, therefore a third ion source (Supernanogan source from PANTECHNIK S.A.) will be integrated. This third ECR source with a newly designed extraction system and a spectrometer line is installed at a test bench at HIT to commission and validate this section. Measurements with different extraction system setups will be presented to show the improvement of beam quality for helium, proton, and carbon beams. An outlook to the possible integration scheme of the new ion source into the production facility will be discussed.

  13. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  15. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  17. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  19. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power transmission systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnes, P.R.; Dykas, W.P.; Kirby, B.J.; Purucker, S.L.; Lawler, J.S.

    1995-07-01

    Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines are nonconventional, environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources (very sunny or windy areas) are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. This study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these high-capacity renewable sources ranged from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility.

  20. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ball State University has completed its campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system, DOE announced on March 20. DOE played a part in the project by providing a $5 million grant through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

  1. Ball State University Completes Nation's Largest Ground-Source Geothermal System with Support from Recovery Act

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of the Obama Administration's all-of-the-above approach to American energy, the Energy Department today congratulated Ball State University for its campus-wide ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system.

  2. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 2, Utility case assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaininger, H.W.; Ellis, P.R.; Schaefer, J.C.

    1994-06-01

    Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: (1) The local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics; (2) renewable energy source penetration level; (3) whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied; and (4) local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kw-scale applications may be connected to three-phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and MW-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications.

  3. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayed˛ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  4. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  5. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  6. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  7. Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, and chemical reactant sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kong, Peter C

    2013-11-26

    Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, chemical reactant sources, and related methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor system comprising a reaction chamber, a combustion torch positioned to direct a flame into the reaction chamber, and one or more reactant feed assemblies configured to electrically energize at least one electrically conductive solid reactant structure to form a plasma and feed each electrically conductive solid reactant structure into the plasma to form at least one product is disclosed. In an additional embodiment, a chemical reactant source for a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor comprising an elongated electrically conductive reactant structure consisting essentially of at least one chemical reactant is disclosed. In further embodiments, methods of forming a chemical reactant source and methods of chemically converting at least one reactant into at least one product are disclosed.

  8. GEO3D - Three-Dimensional Computer Model of a Ground Source Heat Pump System

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    James Menart

    2013-06-07

    This file is the setup file for the computer program GEO3D. GEO3D is a computer program written by Jim Menart to simulate vertical wells in conjunction with a heat pump for ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems. This is a very detailed three-dimensional computer model. This program produces detailed heat transfer and temperature field information for a vertical GSHP system.

  9. Sources of CO and UHC Emissions in Low-Temperature Diesel Combustion Systems

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The sources of unburned hydrocarbons and CO emissions from a PCI-like, early-injection low-temperature combustion system are examined through a combination of homogeneous reactor modeling employing detailed kinetics, multi-dimensional modeling using a reduced kinetic scheme, engine-out emissions measurements, and in-cylinder imaging of the spatial distributions of UHC and CO.

  10. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  11. Electron emission in a source-collector sheath system: A kinetic study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rizopoulou, N. Coppins, M.; Bacharis, M.; Robinson, A. P. L.

    2014-10-15

    The classical source-collector sheath system describes a plasma that forms between a Maxwellian source and an absorbing wall. The plasma is assumed to be collisionless and without ionization. Two distinct areas are being formed: the collector sheath, an ion-rich region in contact with the absorbing boundary, and the source sheath, which is an electron-rich area near the Maxwellian source. In this work, we study a modified version of the classical source-collector sheath system, where the wall is no longer absorbing but emits electrons. As a result, we have two different types of collector sheath, one where a potential well is formed and one without a potential well. We examine the effect of electron emission for a range of conditions for the plasma and the emitted electrons. In the first part of this work, we study the problem analytically, and in the second, using our kinetic Vlasov code, Yggdrasil. The simulation results are in very good agreement with the predictions of our theoretical model.

  12. Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghafghazi, Saeed; Sowlati, T.; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Melin, Staffan

    2011-03-01

    Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these

  13. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  14. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  16. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  17. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

  18. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Short Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01

    This report presents the a brief overview of the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems. A full report of this case study is also available.

  19. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  20. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, ...

  1. A simplified fuzzy model to mimic a nonlinear system, applied to a plasma source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Z.; Rayner, J.; Cheetham, A.; Lund, T.

    1997-02-01

    This paper develops a fuzzy model to simulate the behavior of a nonlinear system, in particular a plasma source, with a view to developing a control system for materials processing plasmas employing a helicon source. Genetic algorithms are employed to optimize fuzzy rules related to the parameters of the fuzzy model which contain a set of variable zeros and poles of the nonlinear system as well as its time delay. A practical application of the fuzzy model is to estimate the electron number density of a low-temperature plasma. Based on the membership functions of the input and output, a set of fuzzy rules by which the variable zeros and poles are identified is derived and optimized u sing a genetic algorithm. The principal reason for investigating the proposed fuzzy model is the subsequent computer-aided design of a fuzzy controller to control the nonlinear system. Two experimental results are presented to validate the fuzzy model method. One shows a computer simulation and the other predicts the real-time behavior of the plasma source as its input parameters are varied.

  2. The oil and gas potential of southern Bolivia: Contributions from a dual source rock system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hartshorn, K.G.

    1996-08-01

    The southern Sub-Andean and Chaco basins of Bolivia produce oil, gas and condensate from reservoirs ranging from Devonian to Tertiary in age. Geochemical evidence points to contributions from two Paleozoic source rocks: the Devonian Los Monos Formation and the Silurian Kirusillas Formation. Rock-Eval pyrolysis, biomarker data, microscopic kerogen analysis, and burial history modeling are used to assess the quality, distribution, and maturity of both source rock systems. The geochemical results are then integrated with the structural model for the area in order to determine the most likely pathways for migration of oil and gas in the thrust belt and its foreland. Geochemical analysis and modeling show that the primary source rock, shales of the Devonian Los Monos Formation, entered the oil window during the initial phase of thrusting in the sub-Andean belt. This provides ideal timing for oil accumulation in younger reservoirs of the thrust belt. The secondary source rock, although richer, consumed most of its oil generating capacity prior to the development of the thrust related structures. Depending on burial depth and location, however, the Silurian source still contributes gas, and some oil, to traps in the region.

  3. Ion source development for a photoneutralization based NBI system for fusion reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simonin, A.; Esch, H. P. L. de; Garibaldi, P.; Grand, C.; Bechu, S.; Bčs, A.; Lacoste, A.

    2015-04-08

    The next step after ITER is to demonstrate the viability and generation of electricity by a future fusion reactor (DEMO). The specifications required to operate an NBI system on DEMO are very demanding. The system has to provide a very high level of power and energy, ~100MW of D° beam at 1MeV, including high wall-plug efficiency (? > 60%). For this purpose, a new injector concept, called Siphore, is under investigation between CEA and French universities. Siphore is based on the stripping of the accelerated negative ions by photo-detachment provided by several Fabry-Perot cavities (3.5MW of light power per cavity) implemented along the D{sup ?} beam. The beamline is designed to be tall and narrow in order that the photon flux overlaps the entire negative ion beam. The paper will describe the present R and D at CEA which addresses the development of an ion source and pre-accelerator prototypes for Siphore, the main goal being to produce an intense negative ion beam sheet. The negative ion source Cybele is based on a magnetized plasma column where hot electrons are emitted from the source center. Parametric studies of the source are performed using Langmuir probes in order to characterize the plasma and to compare with numerical models being developed in French universities.

  4. Gas Feeding System Supplying the U-400M Cyclotron Ion Source with Hydrogen Isotopes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yukhimchuk, A.A.; Angilopov, V.V.; Apasov, V.A.

    2005-07-15

    Automated system feeding into ion source hydrogen isotopes as molecules with preset ratio of the fluxes is described. The control system automatically maintained the working parameters and provided graphic and digital representation of the controlled processes. The radiofrequency (RF) ion source installed at the axial injection line of the cyclotron produced ion beams of HD{sup +}, HT{sup +}, DT{sup +}, D{sub 2}H{sup +}, etc. At a several months DT{sup +} beam acceleration the tritium consumption was less than 108 Bq/hr. The intensity of a 58.2 MeV triton beam (T{sup +} ions) extracted from the cyclotron chamber was about 10 nA.

  5. Design Study of the Extraction System of the 3rd Generation ECR Ion Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leitner, M.A.; Lyneis, C.M.; Taylor, C.E.; Wutte, D.; Xie, Z.Q.

    1998-10-06

    A design study for the extraction system of the 3rd Generation super conducting ECR ion source at LBNL is presented. The magnetic design of the ion source has a mirror field of 4 T at the injection and 3 T at the extraction side and a radial field of 2.4 T at the plasma chamber wall. Therefore, the ion beam formation takes place in a strong axial magnetic field. Furthermore the axial field drops from 3 T to 0.4 T within the first 30 cm. The influence of the high magnetic field on the ion beam extraction and matching to the beam line is investigated. The extraction system is first simulated with the 2D ion trajectory code IGUN with an estimated mean charge state of the extracted ion beam. These results are then compared with the 2D code AXCEL-INP, which can simulate the extraction of ions with different charge states. Finally, the influence of the strong magnetic hexapole field is studied with the three dimensional ion optics code KOBRA. The introduced tool set can be used to optimize the extraction system of the super conducting ECR ion source.

  6. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  7. Isotopic evidence of source variations in commingled magma systems: Colorado River extensional corridor, Arizona and Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Metcalf, R.V.; Smith, E.I.; Martin, M.W. . Dept. of Geoscience); Gonzales, D.A.; Walker, J.D. . Isotope Geochronology Lab.)

    1993-04-01

    Mixing of mantle derived mafic and crustal derived felsic magmas is a major Province-wide process forming Tertiary intermediate magmas within the Basin and Range. Major variations in magma sources, however, may exist in temporally and spatially related systems. Such variations are exemplified by two closely spaced plutons within the northern Colorado River extensional corridor. The 15.96 Ma Mt. Perkins pluton (MPP) was emplaced in three major phases: phase 1 (oldest) gabbro; phase 2 quartz diorite to hornblende granodiorite; and phase 3 biotite granodiorite ([+-]hbld). Phases 2 and 3 contain mafic microgranitoid enclaves (MME) that exhibit evidence of magma mingling. Combined data from phase 2 and 3 rocks, including MMW, shows positive [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr and negative [var epsilon]Nd correlations vs. SiO[sub 2] (50--72 wt %). Phase 2 rocks, which plot between phase 2 MME and MME-free phase 3 granodiorite, represent hybrid magmas formed by mixing of mantle and crustal derived magmas. Phase 1 gabbro falls off isotope-SiO[sub 2] trends and represents a separate mantle derived magma. The 13.2 Ma Wilson Ridge pluton (WRP), <20 km north of MPP, is cogenetic with the river Mountains volcano (RMV). In WRP an early diorite was intruded by a suite of monzodiorite to quartz monzonite. The monzodiorite portion contains MME and mafic schlieren representing mingled and mixed mafic magmas. The WRP and MPP represent two closely spaced isotopically distinct and separate magma systems. There are five magma sources. The two felsic mixing end members represent two different crustal magma sources. Two mantle sources are presented by MPP phase 1 gabbro and phase 2 MME, reflecting lithospheric and asthenospheric components, respectively. The latter represents the oldest reported Tertiary asthenospheric component within the region. A single lithospheric mantle source, different from the MPP gabbro, is indicated for the mafic mixing end member in the WRP-RMV suite.

  8. Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jurns, John M.; Bäck, Harald; Gierow, Martin

    2014-01-29

    The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

  9. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  10. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2010-10-01

    A new high-fidelity integrated system method and analysis approach was developed and implemented for consistent and comprehensive evaluations of advanced fuel cycles leading to minimized Transuranic (TRU) inventories. The method has been implemented in a developed code system integrating capabilities of Monte Carlo N - Particle Extended (MCNPX) for high-fidelity fuel cycle component simulations. In this report, a Nuclear Energy System (NES) configuration was developed to take advantage of used fuel recycling and transmutation capabilities in waste management scenarios leading to minimized TRU waste inventories, long-term activities, and radiotoxicities. The reactor systems and fuel cycle components that make up the NES were selected for their ability to perform in tandem to produce clean, safe, and dependable energy in an environmentally conscious manner. The diversity in performance and spectral characteristics were used to enhance TRU waste elimination while efficiently utilizing uranium resources and providing an abundant energy source. A computational modeling approach was developed for integrating the individual models of the NES. A general approach was utilized allowing for the Integrated System Model (ISM) to be modified in order to provide simulation for other systems with similar attributes. By utilizing this approach, the ISM is capable of performing system evaluations under many different design parameter options. Additionally, the predictive capabilities of the ISM and its computational time efficiency allow for system sensitivity/uncertainty analysis and the implementation of optimization techniques.

  11. Analyzer-based phase-contrast imaging system using a micro focus x-ray source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Wei; Majidi, Keivan; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2014-08-15

    Here we describe a new in-laboratory analyzer based phase contrast-imaging (ABI) instrument using a conventional X-ray tube source (CXS) aimed at bio-medical imaging applications. Phase contrast-imaging allows visualization of soft tissue details usually obscured in conventional X-ray imaging. The ABI system design and major features are described in detail. The key advantage of the presented system, over the few existing CXS ABI systems, is that it does not require high precision components, i.e., CXS, X-ray detector, and electro-mechanical components. To overcome a main problem introduced by these components, identified as temperature stability, the system components are kept at a constant temperature inside of three enclosures, thus minimizing the electrical and mechanical thermal drifts. This is achieved by using thermoelectric (Peltier) cooling/heating modules that are easy to control precisely. For CXS we utilized a microfocus X-ray source with tungsten (W) anode material. In addition the proposed system eliminates tungsten's multiple spectral lines by selecting monochromator crystal size appropriately therefore eliminating need for the costly mismatched, two-crystal monochromator. The system imaging was fine-tuned for tungsten Kα{sub 1} line with the energy of 59.3 keV since it has been shown to be of great clinical significance by a number of researchers at synchrotron facilities. In this way a laboratory system that can be used for evaluating and quantifying tissue properties, initially explored at synchrotron facilities, would be of great interest to a larger research community. To demonstrate the imaging capability of our instrument we use a chicken thigh tissue sample.

  12. A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Banks, T. I.; Freedman, S. J.; Wallig, J.; Ybarrolaza, N.; Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Kishimoto, Y.; Koga, M.; Mitsui, T.; Nakamura, K.; Shimizu, I.; Shirai, J.; Suzuki, A.; Takemoto, Y.; Tamae, K.; Ueshima, K.; Watanabe, H.; Xu, B. D.; Yoshida, H.; Yoshida, S.; Kozlov, A.; Grant, C.; Keefer, G.; Piepke, A.; Bloxham, T.; Fujikawa, B. K.; Han, K.; Ichimura, K.; Murayama, H.; O׳Donnell, T.; Steiner, H. M.; Winslow, L. A.; Dwyer, D. A.; McKeown, R. D.; Zhang, C.; Berger, B. E.; Lane, C. E.; Maricic, J.; Miletic, T.; Batygov, M.; Learned, J. G.; Matsuno, S.; Sakai, M.; Horton-Smith, G. A.; Downum, K. E.; Gratta, G.; Efremenko, Y.; Perevozchikov, O.; Karwowski, H. J.; Markoff, D. M.; Tornow, W.; Heeger, K. M.; Detwiler, J. A.; Enomoto, S.; Decowski, M. P.

    2014-10-14

    We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealed housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. Finally, an infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable’s motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.

  13. System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Musick, Charles R.; Critchlow, Terence; Ganesh, Madhaven; Slezak, Tom; Fidelis, Krzysztof

    2006-12-19

    A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

  14. A transverse bunch by bunch feedback system for Pohang Light Source upgrade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, E.-H.; Kim, D.-T.; Huang, J.-Y.; Shin, S.; Nakamura, T.; Kobayashi, K.

    2014-12-15

    The Pohang Light Source upgrade (PLS-II) project has successfully upgraded the Pohang Light Source (PLS). The main goals of the PLS-II project are to increase the beam energy to 3 GeV, increase the number of insertion devices by a factor of two (20 IDs), increase the beam current to 400 mA, and at the same time reduce the beam emittance to below 10 nm by using the existing PLS tunnel and injection system. Among 20 insertion devices, 10 narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are in operation now and two more in-vacuum undulators are to be installed later. Since these narrow gap in-vacuum undulators are most likely to produce coupled bunch instability by the resistive wall impedance and limit the stored beam current, a bunch by bunch feedback system is implemented to suppress coupled bunch instability in the PLS-II. This paper describes the scheme and performance of the PLS-II bunch by bunch feedback system.

  15. Method of and system for determining locations of sources of harmonics in a power distribution network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hayes, R.M.; Kirkpatrick, T.L.; Lauletta, J.L.; Shuter, T.C.; Vollkommer, H.T. Jr.

    1987-05-19

    A system is described for determining directions of locations of sources of power harmonics relative to a node interconnecting n branches of a power distribution network, where n is an integer greater than or equal to 2, comprising: voltage transducer means for monitoring voltage waveforms in at least (n-1) of the n branches; current transducer means for monitoring current waveforms in at least (n-1) branches; means for sampling the current and voltage waveforms to obtain analog current and voltage waveform samples; A/D converter means for digitizing the analog waveform samples; and spectrum analyzer means for resolving the digitized samples into their respective harmonic components.

  16. System and method for sonic wave measurements using an acoustic beam source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Sinha, Dipen N.; Pantea, Cristian

    2015-08-11

    A method and system for investigating structure near a borehole are described herein. The method includes generating an acoustic beam by an acoustic source; directing at one or more azimuthal angles the acoustic beam towards a selected location in a vicinity of a borehole; receiving at one or more receivers an acoustic signal, the acoustic signal originating from a reflection or a refraction of the acoustic wave by a material at the selected location; and analyzing the received acoustic signal to characterize features of the material around the borehole.

  17. The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Source-term release formulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Streile, G.P.; Shields, K.D.; Stroh, J.L.; Bagaasen, L.M.; Whelan, G.; McDonald, J.P.; Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-11-01

    This report is one of a series of reports that document the mathematical models in the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). Developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, MEPAS is an integrated impact assessment software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models in air, soil, and water media. Outputs are estimates of exposures and health risk assessments for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. Each of the MEPAS formulation documents covers a major MEPAS component such as source-term, atmospheric, vadose zone/groundwater, surface water, and health exposure/health impact assessment. Other MEPAS documentation reports cover the sensitivity/uncertainty formulations and the database parameter constituent property estimation methods. The pollutant source-term release component is documented in this report. MEPAS simulates the release of contaminants from a source, transport through the air, groundwater, surface water, or overland pathways, and transfer through food chains and exposure pathways to the exposed individual or population. For human health impacts, risks are computed for carcinogens and hazard quotients for noncarcinogens. MEPAS is implemented on a desktop computer with a user-friendly interface that allows the user to define the problem, input the required data, and execute the appropriate models for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses.

  18. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II; Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2009-09-01

    The impact associated with energy generation and utilization is immeasurable due to the immense, widespread, and myriad effects it has on the world and its inhabitants. The polar extremes are demonstrated on the one hand, by the high quality of life enjoyed by individuals with access to abundant reliable energy sources, and on the other hand by the global-scale environmental degradation attributed to the affects of energy production and use. Thus, nations strive to increase their energy generation, but are faced with the challenge of doing so with a minimal impact on the environment and in a manner that is self-reliant. Consequently, a revival of interest in nuclear energy has followed, with much focus placed on technologies for transmuting nuclear spent fuel. The performed research investigates nuclear energy systems that optimize the destruction of nuclear waste. In the context of this effort, nuclear energy system is defined as a configuration of nuclear reactors and corresponding fuel cycle components. The proposed system has unique characteristics that set it apart from other systems. Most notably the dedicated High-Energy External Source Transmuter (HEST), which is envisioned as an advanced incinerator used in combination with thermal reactors. The system is configured for examining environmentally benign fuel cycle options by focusing on minimization or elimination of high level waste inventories. Detailed high-fidelity exact-geometry models were developed for representative reactor configurations. They were used in preliminary calculations with Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtented (MCNPX) and Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code systems. The reactor models have been benchmarked against existing experimental data and design data. Simulink{reg_sign}, an extension of MATLAB{reg_sign}, is envisioned as the interface environment for constructing the nuclear energy system model by linking the individual reactor and fuel component sub

  19. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  2. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  3. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  5. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  6. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  7. Operating characteristics of a new ion source for KSTAR neutral beam injection system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Tae-Seong Jeong, Seung Ho; Chang, Doo-Hee; Lee, Kwang Won; In, Sang-Ryul

    2014-02-15

    A new positive ion source for the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research neutral beam injection (KSTAR NBI-1) system was designed, fabricated, and assembled in 2011. The characteristics of the arc discharge and beam extraction were investigated using hydrogen and helium gas to find the optimum operating parameters of the arc power, filament voltage, gas pressure, extracting voltage, accelerating voltage, and decelerating voltage at the neutral beam test stand at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in 2012. Based on the optimum operating condition, the new ion source was then conditioned, and performance tests were primarily finished. The accelerator system with enlarged apertures can extract a maximum 65 A ion beam with a beam energy of 100 keV. The arc efficiency and optimum beam perveance, at which the beam divergence is at a minimum, are estimated to be 1.0 A/kW and 2.5 uP, respectively. The beam extraction tests show that the design goal of delivering a 2 MW deuterium neutral beam into the KSTAR Tokamak plasma is achievable.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  9. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  10. Model for the heat source of the Cerro Prieto magma-hydrothermal system, Baja California, Mexico

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elders, W.A.; Bird, D.K.; Williams, A.E.; Schiffman, P.; Cox, B.

    1981-01-01

    Earlier studies at Cerro Prieto led to the development of a qualitative model for fluid flow in the geothermal system before it was drilled and perturbed by production. Current efforts are directed towards numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in the system in this undisturbed state. This one-dimensional model assumes that the heat source was a single basalt/gabbro intrusion which provided heat to the system as it cooled. After compilation of various information of the physical properties of the reservoir, the enthalpy contained in two 1 cm thick sections across the reservoir orthogonal to each other was calculated. Various shapes, sizes and depths for the intrusion were considered as initial conditions and boundary conditions for the calculations of heat transfer. A family of numerical models which so far gives the best matches to the conditions observed in the field today have in common a funnel-shaped intrusion with a top 4 km wide emplaced at a depth of 5 km some 30,000 to 50,000 years ago, providing heat to the geothermal system.

  11. Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K.

    2014-01-29

    China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

  12. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  13. Proposed second harmonic acceleration system for the intense pulsed neutron source rapid cycling synchrotron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norem, J.; Brandeberry, F.; Rauchas, A.

    1983-01-01

    The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) operating at Argonne National Laboratory is presently producing intensities of 2 to 2.5 x 10/sup 12/ protons per pulse (ppp) with the addition of a new ion source. This intensity is close to the space charge limit of the machine, estimated at approx.3 x 10/sup 12/ ppp, depending somewhat on the available aperture. With the present good performance in mind, accelerator improvements are being directed at: (1) increasing beam intensities for neutron science; (2) lowering acceleration losses to minimize activation; and (3) gaining better control of the beam so that losses can be made to occur when and where they can be most easily controlled. On the basis of preliminary measurements, we are now proposing a third cavity for the RF systems which would provide control of the longitudinal bunch shape during the cycle which would permit raising the effective space charge limit of the accelerator and reducing losses.

  14. A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Banks, T. I.; Freedman, S. J.; Wallig, J.; Ybarrolaza, N.; Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Kishimoto, Y.; Koga, M.; et al

    2014-10-14

    We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealedmore » housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. Finally, an infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable’s motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.« less

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. GEO2D - Two-Dimensional Computer Model of a Ground Source Heat Pump System

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    James Menart

    2013-06-07

    This file contains a zipped file that contains many files required to run GEO2D. GEO2D is a computer code for simulating ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems in two-dimensions. GEO2D performs a detailed finite difference simulation of the heat transfer occurring within the working fluid, the tube wall, the grout, and the ground. Both horizontal and vertical wells can be simulated with this program, but it should be noted that the vertical wall is modeled as a single tube. This program also models the heat pump in conjunction with the heat transfer occurring. GEO2D simulates the heat pump and ground loop as a system. Many results are produced by GEO2D as a function of time and position, such as heat transfer rates, temperatures and heat pump performance. On top of this information from an economic comparison between the geothermal system simulated and a comparable air heat pump systems or a comparable gas, oil or propane heating systems with a vapor compression air conditioner. The version of GEO2D in the attached file has been coupled to the DOE heating and cooling load software called ENERGYPLUS. This is a great convenience for the user because heating and cooling loads are an input to GEO2D. GEO2D is a user friendly program that uses a graphical user interface for inputs and outputs. These make entering data simple and they produce many plotted results that are easy to understand. In order to run GEO2D access to MATLAB is required. If this program is not available on your computer you can download the program MCRInstaller.exe, the 64 bit version, from the MATLAB website or from this geothermal depository. This is a free download which will enable you to run GEO2D..

  17. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F.; Burnett, Greg C.; Ng, Lawrence C.

    2007-10-16

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  18. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F; Burnett, Greg C; Ng, Lawrence C

    2013-05-21

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  19. System and method for characterizing synthesizing and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F.; Burnett, Greg C.; Ng, Lawrence C.

    2003-01-01

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  20. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  1. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  2. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  3. General Purpose Kernel Integration Shielding Code System-Point and Extended Gamma-Ray Sources.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1981-06-11

    PELSHIE3 calculates dose rates from gamma-emitting sources with different source geometries and shielding configurations. Eight source geometries are provided and are called by means of geometry index numbers. Gamma-emission characteristics for 134 isotopes, attenuation coefficients for 57 elements or shielding materials and Berger build-up parameters for 17 shielding materials can be obtained from a direct access data library by specifying only the appropriate library numbers. A different option allows these data to be read frommore » cards. For extended sources, constant source strengths as well as exponential and Bessel function source strength distributions are allowed in most cases.« less

  4. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  5. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  6. Update on maintenance and service costs of commercial building ground-source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cane, D.; Garnet, J.M.

    2000-07-01

    An earlier paper showed that commercial ground-source heat pump systems have significantly lower service and maintenance costs than alternative HVAC systems. This paper expands on those results by adding 13 more buildings to the original 25 sites and by comparing the results to the latest ASHRAE survey of HVAC maintenance costs. Data from the 38 sites are presented here including total (scheduled and unscheduled) maintenance costs in cents per square foot per year for base cost, in-house, and contractor-provided maintenance. Because some of the new sites had maintenance costs that were much higher than the industry norm, the resulting data are not normally distributed. Analysis (O'Hara Hines 1998) indicated that a log-normal distribution is a better fit; thus, the data are analyzed and presented here as log-normal. The log-mean annual total maintenance costs for the most recent year of the survey ranged from 6.07 cents per square foot to 8.37 cents per square foot for base cost and contractor-provided maintenance, respectively.

  7. Microwave plasma source for neutral-beam injection systems. Quarterly technical progress report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-05-13

    Conceptual design studies of a cusp field rf ion source are described. A diagram of the thruster is given. (MOW)

  8. Integrated Heat Pump (IHP) System Development - Air-Source IHP Control Strategy and Specifications and Ground-Source IHP Conceptual Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Richard W; Rice, C Keith; Baxter, Van D

    2007-05-01

    The integrated heat pump (IHP), as one appliance, can provide space cooling, heating, ventilation, and dehumidification while maintaining comfort and meeting domestic water heating needs in near-zero-energy home (NZEH) applications. In FY 2006 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) completed development of a control strategy and system specification for an air-source IHP. The conceptual design of a ground-source IHP was also completed. Testing and analysis confirm the potential of both IHP concepts to meet NZEH energy services needs while consuming 50% less energy than a suite of equipment that meets current minimum efficiency requirements. This report is in fulfillment of an FY06 DOE Building Technologies (BT) Joule Milestone.

  9. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-12-01

    The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

  10. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  11. Recovery Act: Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James A Menart, Professor

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems. The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The

  12. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menart, James A.

    2013-02-22

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ?Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump

  13. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  14. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  17. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  18. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting. | Department of Energy 0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. (297.93 KB) More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011 Update

  19. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  20. OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY SPALLATION NEUTRON SOURCE ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS AVAILABILITY AND IMPROVEMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, Roy I; Peplov, Vladimir V; Wezensky, Mark W; Norris, Kevin Paul; Barnett, William E; Hicks, Jim; Weaver, Joey T; Moss, John; Rust, Kenneth R; Mize, Jeffery J; Anderson, David E

    2011-01-01

    SNS electrical systems have been operational for 4 years. System availability statistics and improvements are presented for AC electrical systems, DC and pulsed power supplies and klystron modulators.

  1. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objective: Create a new modeling ÂŤdecisionÂŽ tool that will enable ground source heat pump (GSHP) designers and customers to make better design and purchasing decisions.

  3. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  4. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  5. A dual neutron/gamma source for the Fissmat Inspection for Nuclear Detection (FIND) system.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doyle, Barney Lee; King, Michael; Rossi, Paolo; McDaniel, Floyd Del; Morse, Daniel Henry; Antolak, Arlyn J.; Provencio, Paula Polyak; Raber, Thomas N.

    2008-12-01

    Shielded special nuclear material (SNM) is very difficult to detect and new technologies are needed to clear alarms and verify the presence of SNM. High-energy photons and neutrons can be used to actively interrogate for heavily shielded SNM, such as highly enriched uranium (HEU), since neutrons can penetrate gamma-ray shielding and gamma-rays can penetrate neutron shielding. Both source particles then induce unique detectable signals from fission. In this LDRD, we explored a new type of interrogation source that uses low-energy proton- or deuteron-induced nuclear reactions to generate high fluxes of mono-energetic gammas or neutrons. Accelerator-based experiments, computational studies, and prototype source tests were performed to obtain a better understanding of (1) the flux requirements, (2) fission-induced signals, background, and interferences, and (3) operational performance of the source. The results of this research led to the development and testing of an axial-type gamma tube source and the design/construction of a high power coaxial-type gamma generator based on the {sup 11}B(p,{gamma}){sup 12}C nuclear reaction.

  6. Luminescent light source for laser pumping and laser system containing same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hamil, Roy A.; Ashley, Carol S.; Brinker, C. Jeffrey; Reed, Scott; Walko, Robert J.

    1994-01-01

    The invention relates to a pumping lamp for use with lasers comprising a porous substrate loaded with a component capable of emitting light upon interaction of the component with exciting radiation and a source of exciting radiation. Preferably, the pumping lamp comprises a source of exciting radiation, such as an electron beam, and an aerogel or xerogel substrate loaded with a component capable of interacting with the exciting radiation, e.g., a phosphor, to produce light, e.g., visible light, of a suitable band width and of a sufficient intensity to generate a laser beam from a laser material.

  7. Conceptual Design, Implementation and Commissioning of Data Acquisition and Control System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Soni, Jignesh; Gahlaut, A.; Bansal, G.; Parmar, K. G.; Pandya, K.; Chakraborty, A.; Yadav, Ratnakar; Singh, M. J.; Bandyopadhyay, M.

    2011-09-26

    Negative ion Experimental facility has been setup at IPR. The facility consists of a RF based negative ion source (ROBIN)--procured under a license agreement with IPP Garching, as a replica of BATMAN, presently operating in IPP, 100 kW 1 MHz RF generators and a set of low and high voltage power supplies, vacuum system and diagnostics. 35 keV 10A H- beam is expected from this setup. Automated successful operation of the system requires an advanced, rugged, time proven and flexible control system. Further the data generated in the experimental phase needs to be acquired, monitored and analyzed to verify and judge the system performance. In the present test bed, this is done using a combination of PLC based control system and a PXI based data acquisition system. The control system consists of three different Siemens PLC systems viz. (1) S-7 400 PLC as a Master Control, (2) S-7 300 PLC for Vacuum system control and (3) C-7 PLC for RF generator control. Master control PLC directly controls all the subsystems except the Vacuum system and RF generator. The Vacuum system and RF generator have their own dedicated PLCs (S-7 300 and C-7 respectively). Further, these two PLC systems work as a slave for the Master control PLC system. Communication between PLC S-7 400, S-7 300 and central control room computer is done through Industrial Ethernet (IE). Control program and GUI are developed in Siemens Step-7 PLC programming software and Wincc SCADA software, respectively. There are approximately 150 analog and 200 digital control and monitoring signals required to perform complete closed loop control of the system. Since the source floats at high potential ({approx}35 kV); a combination of galvanic and fiber optic isolation has been implemented. PXI based Data Acquisition system (DAS) is a combination of PXI RT (Real time) system, front end signal conditioning electronics, host system and DAQ program. All the acquisition signals coming from various sub-systems are connected and

  8. Evaluation of a lithium formate EPR dosimetry system for dose measurements around {sup 192}Ir brachytherapy sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antonovic, Laura; Gustafsson, Haakan; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Carlsson Tedgren, Aasa

    2009-06-15

    A dosimetry system using lithium formate monohydrate (HCO{sub 2}Li{center_dot}H{sub 2}O) as detector material and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy for readout has been used to measure absorbed dose distributions around clinical {sup 192}Ir sources. Cylindrical tablets with diameter of 4.5 mm, height of 4.8 mm, and density of 1.26 g/cm{sup 3} were manufactured. Homogeneity test and calibration of the dosimeters were performed in a 6 MV photon beam. {sup 192}Ir irradiations were performed in a PMMA phantom using two different source models, the GammaMed Plus HDR and the microSelectron PDR-v1 model. Measured absorbed doses to water in the PMMA phantom were converted to the corresponding absorbed doses to water in water phantoms of dimensions used by the treatment planning systems (TPSs) using correction factors explicitly derived for this experiment. Experimentally determined absorbed doses agreed with the absorbed doses to water calculated by the TPS to within {+-}2.9%. Relative standard uncertainties in the experimentally determined absorbed doses were estimated to be within the range of 1.7%-1.3% depending on the radial distance from the source, the type of source (HDR or PDR), and the particular absorbed doses used. This work shows that a lithium formate dosimetry system is well suited for measurements of absorbed dose to water around clinical HDR and PDR {sup 192}Ir sources. Being less energy dependent than the commonly used thermoluminescent lithium fluoride (LiF) dosimeters, lithium formate monohydrate dosimeters are well suited to measure absorbed doses in situations where the energy dependence cannot easily be accounted for such as in multiple-source irradiations to verify treatment plans. Their wide dynamic range and linear dose response over the dose interval of 0.2-1000 Gy make them suitable for measurements on sources of the strengths used in clinical applications. The dosimeter size needs, however, to be reduced for application to

  9. ACT-ARA: Code System for the Calculation of Changes in Radiological Source Terms with Time

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1988-02-01

    The program calculates the source term activity as a function of time for parent isotopes as well as daughters. Also, at each time, the "probable release" is produced. Finally, the program determines the time integrated probable release for each isotope over the time period of interest.

  10. Distribution system stability, reliability and protective relaying due to incorporation of dispersed energy sources. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allison, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    This thesis discusses impacts and issues brought about by the enactment of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978. The United States power grid has a history of safe, economical, reliable service that, some feel, is threatened by the encroachment of small Dispersed Energy Sources, with possible inexperienced developers. The quality of electrical power from such sources is in question, as is power grid stability and reliability. Safety is another factor where methodry is subject to the incentives of the party whose viewpoint is sought. Much controversy is caused by the Act leaving methods of implementation to the individual States. The settlement, in one State, of some question in dispute forms no basis for extrapolation into other States. This leaves a potential developer with some uncertainty as to his options and advantages in assessing the incentives for investing in a Dispersed Energy Source. And such incentives form the thrust of the Act. This thesis brings these issues to the force and examines them for significance and possible resolution. It evaluates the outlook for significance and possible resolution. It evaluates the outlook of the Utility, the Dispersed Energy Source, and the Public for motivation and attempts to strike a balance between their opinions in reaching conclusions. Gray areas are addressed and possible remedies are offered.

  11. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  12. Sensivitity improvement in low-profile distributed detector systems for tracking sources in transit.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vilim, R. B.; Klann, R.; Campos, C.; Medley, T.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2007-01-01

    The RadTrac real-time detection and tracking software runs on a laptop computer networked to gamma-radiation detectors. A probabilistic estimate for source position is generated by combining measured count rate data with a first-principles stochastic model for the space and time dependence of count rates and knowledge of detector intrinsic efficiency. Recent development work has focused on improving RadTrac sensitivity in low-count rate situations. A method has been developed for processing count rates by energy according to that part of the energy spectrum with the greatest signal-to-noise ratio. In addition a method has been developed that places constraints on the solution that are physically appropriate when count rates approach background. In both instances experiments with a weak source confirmed the uncertainty in estimated position is reduced.

  13. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  14. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  15. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  16. In-situ X-ray diffraction system using sources and detectors at fixed angular positions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gibson, David M.; Gibson, Walter M.; Huang, Huapeng

    2007-06-26

    An x-ray diffraction technique for measuring a known characteristic of a sample of a material in an in-situ state. The technique includes using an x-ray source for emitting substantially divergent x-ray radiation--with a collimating optic disposed with respect to the fixed source for producing a substantially parallel beam of x-ray radiation by receiving and redirecting the divergent paths of the divergent x-ray radiation. A first x-ray detector collects radiation diffracted from the sample; wherein the source and detector are fixed, during operation thereof, in position relative to each other and in at least one dimension relative to the sample according to a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample. A second x-ray detector may be fixed relative to the first x-ray detector according to the a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample, especially in a phase monitoring embodiment of the present invention.

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  18. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  19. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  20. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  1. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  2. Integration of Novel Flux Coupling Motor and Current Source Inverter |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Operations | Department of Energy Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power forecasting techniques into the operational tools used by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to forecast customer load, and then validate their efficacy at enabling

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  4. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  6. Interaction of plasmas in laser ion source with double laser system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuwa, Y.; Ikeda, S.; Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Tokyo ; Kumaki, M.; Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Tokyo ; Sekine, M.; Department of Nuclear Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro, Tokyo ; Cinquegrani, D.; Romanelli, M.; Kanesue, T.; Okamura, M.; Iwashita, Y.

    2014-02-15

    Multiple laser shots could be used to elongate an ion beam pulse width or to intensify beam current from laser ion sources. In order to confirm the feasibility of the multiple shot scheme, we investigated the properties of plasmas produced by double laser shots. We found that when the interval of the laser shots is shorter than 10 ?s, the ion current profile had a prominent peak, which is not observed in single laser experiments. The height of this peak was up to five times larger than that of single laser experiment.

  7. Radio frequency ion source operated with field effect transistor based radio frequency system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ando, A.; Komuro, A.; Matsuno, T.; Tsumori, K.; Takeiri, Y.

    2010-02-15

    Characteristics of radio frequency (RF) plasma production are investigated using a field effect transistor inverter power supply as an RF wave source. With the frequency of around 0.3 MHz, an electron density over 10{sup 18} m{sup -3} is produced in argon plasma. Although lower densities are obtained in hydrogen plasma, it drastically increased up to 5x10{sup 18} m{sup -3} with an axial magnetic field of around 100 G applied in the driver region. Effects of the magnetic field and gas pressure are investigated in the RF produced plasma with the frequency of several hundred kilohertz.

  8. GPHS-RTG system explosion test direct course experiment 5000. [General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01

    The General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) has been designed and is being built to provide electrical power for spacecrafts to be launched on the Space Shuttle. The objective of the RTG System Explosion Test was to expose a mock-up of the GPHS-RTG with a simulated heat source to the overpressure and impulse representative of a potential upper magnitude explosion of the Space Shuttle. The test was designed so that the heat source module would experience an overpressure at which the survival of the fuel element cladding would be expected to be marginal. Thus, the mock-up was placed where the predicted incident overpressure would be 1300 psi. The mock-up was mounted in an orientation representative of the launch configuration on the spacecraft to be used on the NASA Galileo Mission. The incident overpressure measured was in the range of 1400 to 2100 psi. The mock-up and simulated heat source were destroyed and only very small fragments were recovered. This damage is believed to have resulted from a combination of the overpressure and impact by very high velocity fragments from the ANFO sphere. Post-test analysis indicated that extreme working of the iridium clad material occurred, indicative of intensive impulsive loading on the metal.

  9. Sensitivity calibration of an imaging extreme ultraviolet spectrometer-detector system for determining the efficiency of broadband extreme ultraviolet sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuchs, S.; Roedel, C.; Bierbach, J.; Paz, A. E.; Foerster, E.; Paulus, G. G.; Krebs, M.; Haedrich, S.; Limpert, J.; Kuschel, S.; Wuensche, M.; Hilbert, V.; Zastrau, U.

    2013-02-15

    We report on the absolute sensitivity calibration of an extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer system that is frequently employed to study emission from short-pulse laser experiments. The XUV spectrometer, consisting of a toroidal mirror and a transmission grating, was characterized at a synchrotron source in respect of the ratio of the detected to the incident photon flux at photon energies ranging from 15.5 eV to 99 eV. The absolute calibration allows the determination of the XUV photon number emitted by laser-based XUV sources, e.g., high-harmonic generation from plasma surfaces or in gaseous media. We have demonstrated high-harmonic generation in gases and plasma surfaces providing 2.3 {mu}W and {mu}J per harmonic using the respective generation mechanisms.

  10. System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

    2014-12-30

    A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.