Sample records for forecasting system sources

  1. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  2. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  3. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  4. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  5. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  6. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  7. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  8. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  10. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  11. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  12. THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

  13. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  14. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  15. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Energy Reliability As part of Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Under Task 3.1: Photovoltaic Systems Reliability Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Hawai`i Energy Sustainability Program Subtask 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation

  16. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  17. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  18. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  19. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 4 report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.; Hadder, G.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

    1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Navy's Maritime Strategy is designed to maintain military readiness and the ability to operate in all major theaters of the world. Mobility fuels required for sea, air, and land operations are vital components of the Navy's peacetime and wartime strategies. The purpose of the Navy's Mobility Fuels Technology Program is to understand fuel supply and fuel property impacts on Navy equipment performance and fleet readiness and operations. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has assisted the Department of Navy in developing and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel availability, quality, and relative price, as well as evaluating options to increase fuel supplies during world oil supply disruptions. Publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the foundation of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The NMFFS was enhanced as ORNL reviewed data on world oil reserves, production and prices, trends in crude oil and refined product quality, and changes in refinery process technology. The system was used to analyze the availability, quality, and relative price of military fuels that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refining regions under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and two hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in the year 1995. 25 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  20. Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems

  1. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. This information is then applied to stitch images together into largermore »views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  2. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system. Phase II, report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Vineyard, T.A.; Das, S.; Lee, R.

    1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's fuel use strategy and the Mobility Fuels Technology Program. Until recently, there has been a long-term decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets and a shift in refinery capacities domestically and worldwide. Three publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) and diesel fuel (F-76) that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refinery regions under business-as-usual and four hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in 1990. The results from the study indicate that jet fuel availability could be reduced in some refinery regions under the disruptions studied. Various strategies were investigated for increasing JP-5 production during the disruptions. In general, the availability of JP-5 was more limited than F-76 under the disruption cases studied; however, in all cases one or more strategies were identified to increase refinery output of JP-5 in all study regions. Based on the four hypothetical disruption scenarios studied, the analysis suggested tat JP-5 production could be increased by relaxing the smoke point, freezing point, flash point, and by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel in the study regions. A more complete analysis of navy mobility fuel trends, as well as several changes in the models to make them easier to use in fuel planning and forecastig studies, are planned as part of the third phase of this program.

  3. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev HeinemannH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systems and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

  4. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  5. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  7. NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Guebuem

    NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

  8. Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations) Natural (dust, fires, volcanos) Meteorology: Transport, turbulence Clouds and radiation, precipitations Chemistry-transport model Gas and particles concentrations Use of model outputs: Analysis Direct: model vs

  9. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  10. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  11. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  12. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  13. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  14. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, B.N.; Wu, X.D.

    1998-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metallorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition. 13 figs.

  15. Solid source MOCVD system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hubert, Brian N. (Yakima, WA); Wu, Xin Di (San Jose, CA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A system for MOCVD fabrication of superconducting and non-superconducting oxide films provides a delivery system for the feeding of metalorganic precursors for multi-component chemical vapor deposition. The delivery system can include multiple cartridges containing tightly packed precursor materials. The contents of each cartridge can be ground at a desired rate and fed together with precursor materials from other cartridges to a vaporization zone and then to a reaction zone within a deposition chamber for thin film deposition.

  16. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS: The contribution of power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly of the electricity grids and for energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output

  17. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  18. Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time-Invariant Dynamic Systems with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiang, Yang

    . Alternatively, time series are represented by state-space models, also referred to as multivariate dynamic and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time to a discrete time, multivariate time series [1, 2]. The primary inference that we address is one- step

  19. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  20. Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ducatelle, Frederick

    Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area for secure operation, management of modern power systems and electricity production in the power generation

  1. Advanced Light Source control system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Magyary, S.; Chin, M.; Cork, C.; Fahmie, M.; Lancaster, H.; Molinari, P.; Ritchie, A.; Robb, A.; Timossi, C.

    1989-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Advanced Light Source (ALS) is a third generation 1--2 GeV synchrotron radiation source designed to provide ports for 60 beamlines. It uses a 50 MeV electron linac and 1.5 GeV, 1 Hz, booster synchrotron for injection into a 1--2 GeV storage ring. Interesting control problems are created because of the need for dynamic closed beam orbit control to eliminate interaction between the ring tuning requirements and to minimize orbit shifts due to ground vibrations. The extremely signal sensitive nature of the experiments requires special attention to the sources of electrical noise. These requirements have led to a control system design which emphasizes connectivity at the accelerator equipment end and a large I/O bandwidth for closed loop system response. Not overlooked are user friendliness, operator response time, modeling, and expert system provisions. Portable consoles are used for local operation of machine equipment. Our solution is a massively parallel system with >120 Mbits/sec I/O bandwidth and >1500 Mips computing power. At the equipment level connections are made using over 600 powerful Intelligent Local Controllers (ILC-s) mounted in 3U size Eurocard slots using fiber-optic cables between rack locations. In the control room, personal computers control and display all machine variables at a 10 Hz rate including the scope signals which are collected though the control system. Commercially available software and industry standards are used extensively. Particular attention is paid to reliability, maintainability and upgradeability. 10 refs., 11 figs.

  2. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  3. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  4. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  5. Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

  6. Cryogenic hydrogen circulation system of neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qiu, Y. N. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 China and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China); Hu, Z. J.; Wu, J. H.; Li, Q.; Zhang, Y. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 (China); Zhang, P. [School of Energy and Power Engineering, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, WH430074 (China); Wang, G. P. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China)

    2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Cold neutron sources of reactors and spallation neutron sources are classic high flux neutron sources in operation all over the world. Cryogenic fluids such as supercritical or supercooled hydrogen are commonly selected as a moderator to absorb the nuclear heating from proton beams. By comparing supercritical hydrogen circulation systems and supercooled hydrogen circulation systems, the merits and drawbacks in both systems are summarized. When supercritical hydrogen circulates as the moderator, severe pressure fluctuations caused by temperature changes will occur. The pressure control system used to balance the system pressure, which consists of a heater as an active controller for thermal compensation and an accumulator as a passive volume controller, is preliminarily studied. The results may provide guidelines for design and operation of other cryogenic hydrogen system for neutron sources under construction.

  7. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  8. Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bray, Rebecca Anne

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis documents the results and studies conducted when determining the accuracy of the Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) methodology of forecasting future levels of traffic demand. The data that was used was the Federal Highway...

  9. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  10. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  11. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  12. Open Source Course Management and Assessment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LON-CAPA: Open Source Course Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer Michigan State, homework problems) is a lot of work · Doing so for use in just one course is a waste of time and effort Assembly Course Management Resource Assembly Course Management #12;Campus A Campus B Resource Assembly

  13. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  14. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  15. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, C.W.; Beahm, E.C.; Parker, G.W.

    1995-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results. 4 figs.

  16. Core-melt source reduction system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forsberg, Charles W. (Oak Ridge, TN); Beahm, Edward C. (Oak Ridge, TN); Parker, George W. (Concord, TN)

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results.

  17. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  18. The use of predictive lithostratigraphy to significantly improve the ability to forecast reservoir and source rocks? Final CRADA report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doctor, R. D.; Moore, T. L.; Energy Systems

    2010-06-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this CRADA, which ended in 2003, was to make reservoir and source rock distribution significantly more predictable by quantifying the fundamental controls on stratigraphic heterogeneity. To do this, the relationships among insolation, climate, sediment supply, glacioeustasy, and reservoir and source rock occurrence were investigated in detail. Work current at the inception of the CRADA had uncovered previously unrecognized associations among these processes and properties that produce a phenomenon that, when properly analyzed, will make lithostratigraphic variability (including texture, porosity, and permeability) substantially more understandable. Computer climate simulations of selected time periods, compared with the global distribution of paleoclimatic indicators, documented spatial and temporal climate changes as a function of insolation and provided quantitative changes in runoff, lake level, and glacioeustasy. The effect of elevation and climate on sediment yield was assessed numerically by analyzing digital terrain and climate data. The phase relationships of climate, yield, and glacioeustatic cycles from the Gulf of Mexico and/or other sedimentary basins were assessed by using lacunarity, a statistical technique.

  19. APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO BUILDINGS AND BRIDGE DECKS. By MAHADEVAN Chapter Page 1. Introduction 1.1. Overview of hybrid ground source heat pump systems 1.2. Literature review 1.3. Thesis objective and scope 2. Optimal sizing of hybrid ground source heat pump system

  20. Spallation Neutron Source ring vacuum systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mapes, M.; Hseuh, H.C.; Rank, J.; Smart, L.; Todd, R.; Weiss, D. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States)

    2006-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The Spallation Neutron Source ring, which is presently being commissioned at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is designed to accumulate high-intensity protons. Ultrahigh vacuum of 10{sup -9} torr is required in the accumulator ring to minimize beam-residual gas ionization. To reduce the secondary-electron yield and the associated electron cloud instability, the ring vacuum chambers are coated with titanium nitride (TiN). In order to minimize radiation exposure, quick-disconnect chain clamp flanges are used in some areas where radiation levels are expected to be high. This article describes the design, fabrication, assembly, and vacuum processing of the ring and beam transport vacuum systems, as well as the associated vacuum instrumentation.

  1. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  3. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  4. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  5. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  6. Power conditioning system for energy sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mazumder, Sudip K. (Chicago, IL); Burra, Rajni K. (Chicago, IL); Acharya, Kaustuva (Chicago, IL)

    2008-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Apparatus for conditioning power generated by an energy source includes an inverter for converting a DC input voltage from the energy source to a square wave AC output voltage, and a converter for converting the AC output voltage from the inverter to a sine wave AC output voltage.

  7. Illumination system having a plurality of movable sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sweatt, William C. (Albuquerque, NM); Kubiak, Glenn D. (Livermore, CA)

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An illumination system includes several discharge sources that are multiplexed together to reduce the amount of debris generated. The system includes: (a) a first electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of first activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a first movable carriage; (b) a second electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of second activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a second movable carriage; (c) means for directing electromagnetic radiation from the first electromagnetic radiation source array and electromagnetic radiation from the second electromagnetic radiation source array toward a common optical path; (d) means for synchronizing (i) the movements of the first movable carriage and of the second movable carriage and (ii) the activation of the first electromagnetic radiation source array and of the second electromagnetic radiation source array to provide an essentially continuous illumination of electromagnetic radiation along the common optical path.

  8. An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer Michigan system an assessment system around since 1992 #12;Free and Open-Source · Free: "Free beer=split(/\\,/,$line); $username=$entries[4]; _ #12;Campus A Campus B LON-CAPA Architecture Shared Cross-Institutional Resource

  9. An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer-CAPA is free open-source a learning content management system an assessment system around since 1992 #12 Cross-Institutional Resource Library (Base de Dados Compartilhada entre Instituições) Resource Assembly

  10. Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

    1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

  11. Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design May 19, 2010 Geothermal Technologies Program 2010 Peer Review ENVIRON International PI : Metin Ozbek Track : GSHP Demonstration Projects This...

  12. Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the manufactunng costs of fuel cells systems from presentlevel and manufactunng cost of PEM fuel cell systems, for amthe present cost cf PEM fuel cell systems by consldenng a

  13. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  14. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  15. Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kulp, Thomas Jan (Livermore, CA); Kliner, Dahv A. V. (San Ramon, CA); Sommers, Ricky (Oakley, CA); Goers, Uta-Barbara (Campbell, NY); Armstrong, Karla M. (Livermore, CA)

    2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

  16. Combined permeable pavement and ground source heat pump systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grabowiecki, Piotr

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The PhD thesis focuses on the performance assessment of permeable pavement systems incorporating ground source heat pumps (GSHP). The relatively high variability of temperature in these systems allows for the survival of pathogenic organisms within...

  17. Method and system of integrating information from multiple sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Alford, Francine A. (Livermore, CA); Brinkerhoff, David L. (Antioch, CA)

    2006-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method of integrating information from multiple sources in a document centric application system. A plurality of application systems are connected through an object request broker to a central repository. The information may then be posted on a webpage. An example of an implementation of the method and system is an online procurement system.

  18. Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavriyev, Anton

    2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

    An alternative synchronization technique – one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

  19. Operating experience with the Argonne PIIECR ion source system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pardo, R.C.; Billquist, P.J.

    1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Argonne PIIECR ion source is the first ECR in source system to operate on a high voltage (350 kV) platform. The system is the injector into a new superconducting linac which will eventually provide beams over the entire periodic table, including uranium. The experience we have had with the system to date will be discussed. Emphasis will be placed on the source performance with solid materials and the initial performance of the system as an injector to the superconducting linac. The bunching system which is part of the overall source system allows a determination of the system longitudinal emittance. Results of these initial measurements will be presented. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 5 report: Impacts of ultra low sulfur diesel fuel production on Navy fuel availability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Das, S.; Lee, R.; Domingo, N.; Davis, R.M.

    1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Legislation for ultra low sulfur (ULS) diesel fuel, with a greatly reduced allowable sulfur content and a new limit on aromatics content, is expected to be in place by 1995. The ULS diesel fuel has been specified to satisfy national standards for particulate emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines. The economic and engineering models of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System have been used to study the impacts of ULS diesel fuel production on other refined petroleum products, with emphasis on the quality of Navy mobility fuels. The study predicts that to produce ULS diesel fuel, Gulf and West Coast refiners will have to invest about $4.4 billion in new processing capacity. Refiners will shift aromatics from No. 2 diesel fuel to jet fuel and to No. 2 fuel oil. Therefore, particulate emissions could be transferred from the nation's highways to the airways and to communities which use No. 2 fuel oil for residential and commercial heating. The study also predicts that there will be an increase in the aromatics content of domestically produced Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel. The gum-forming tendencies of F-76 an F-77 burner fuel oil will increase in most cases. The freezing point of JP-5 will improve. There will be minor changes in the cost of JP-5, but sizable reductions in the cost of F-76 and F-77. 20 refs., 2 figs., 17 tabs.

  1. Open Source Ch Control System Toolkit and Web-Based

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Harry H.

    Open Source Ch Control System Toolkit and Web-Based Control System Design for Teaching Automatic, and WCCDM for teaching automatic control of linear time-invariant systems is presented. With the CCST.20454 Keywords: control systems; Web-based education INTRODUCTION Automatic control has become a major

  2. Information Sources for Small Water Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dozier, Monty; Theodori, Gene L.; Jensen, Ricard

    2007-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

    E - 4 3 8 0 2 - 0 7 ?The protection of water quality is vital for managers of small water systems.? Information S o urces for Small Water System s Monty Dozier, Associate Professor and Extension Specialist; Gene Theodori, Associate Professor... and Extension Program Leader; and Ric Jensen, Assistant Research Scientist, Texas Water Resources Institute, The Texas A&M University T The protection of water quality is vital for managers of small water systems. Ample resources related to water quality...

  3. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG ...

  4. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  5. Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

    1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

  6. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, J.H.; Stirling, W.L.

    1985-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  7. Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whealton, John H. (Oak Ridge, TN); Stirling, William L. (Oak Ridge, TN)

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

  8. Information Sources for Small Water Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dozier, Monty; Theodori, Gene L.; Jensen, Ricard

    2007-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Managers of small waters systems must have information about a variety of topics. This publication lists essential printed and electronic resources on disaster preparedness, national drinking water standards, private water well management, water...

  9. A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Wind) For Rural Communities In Mexico Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Book Section: A...

  10. TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings: TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING...

  11. Guidelines for the implementation of an open source information system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.

    1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This work was initially performed for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to help with the Open Source Task of the 93 + 2 Initiative; however, the information should be of interest to anyone working with open sources. The authors cover all aspects of an open source information system (OSIS) including, for example, identifying relevant sources, understanding copyright issues, and making information available to analysts. They foresee this document as a reference point that implementors of a system could augment for their particular needs. The primary organization of this document focuses on specific aspects, or components, of an OSIS; they describe each component and often make specific recommendations for its implementation. This document also contains a section discussing the process of collecting open source data and a section containing miscellaneous information. The appendix contains a listing of various providers, producers, and databases that the authors have come across in their research.

  12. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  13. Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn't YourTransport(Fact Sheet), GeothermalGrid Integration and the CarryingPeer Review GSHP System

  14. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

  15. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  16. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  17. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tainzhen; Liu, Xaiobing

    2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the current movement toward net zero energy buildings, many technologies are promoted with emphasis on their superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerant flow (VRF) and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are probably the most competitive technologies among these. However, there are few studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems compared with GSHP systems. In this article, a preliminary comparison of energy efficiency between the air-source VRF and GSHP systems is presented. The computer simulation results show that GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRF system for conditioning a small office building in two selected US climates. In general, GSHP system is more energy efficient than the air-source VRV system, especially when the building has significant heating loads. For buildings with less heating loads, the GSHP system could still perform better than the air-source VRF system in terms of energy efficiency, but the resulting energy savings may be marginal.

  18. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  19. NiSource Energy Technologies Inc.: System Integration of Distributed Power for Complete Building Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

  20. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  1. Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bornstein, Jonathan G. (Miami, FL); Friedman, Peter S. (Toledo, OH)

    1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  3. Optimal control in thermodynamic systems with sources of finite capacity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuznetsov, A.G.; Rudenko, A.V.; Tsirlin, A.M.

    1985-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper considers problems of optimal control of thermodynamic processes of heat and mass transfer on contact of two systems. The control signal is a vector of the temperatures and concentrations of one system, the parameters of the second being variable at a rate proportional to the heat and material flows. The limiting efficiency of the heat machine is found when the cycle duration and source capacities are bounded.

  4. Evolution Patterns of Open-Source Software Systems and Communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nakakoji, Kumiyo

    Evolution Patterns of Open-Source Software Systems and Communities Kumiyo Nakakoji1,2,3 Yasuhiro product evolution". To understand how this "natural product evolution" happens, we have conducted a case study of four typical OSS projects. Unlike most previous studies on software evolution that focus

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  6. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  7. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    tool for geothermal water loop heat pump systems, 9thInternational IEA Heat Pump Conference, Zürich, Switzerland,Performance of ground source heat pump system in a near-zero

  8. A capital cost comparison of commercial ground-source heat pump systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rafferty, K.

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report provides a capital cost comparison of commercial ground source heat pump systems. The study includes groundwater systems, ground-coupled systems and hybrid systems.

  9. Status and design of the Advanced Photon Source control system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDowell, W.; Knott, M.; Lenkszus, F.; Kraimer, M.; Arnold, N.; Daly, R.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the current status of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) control system. It will discuss the design decisions which led us to use industrial standards and collaborations with other laboratories to develop the APS control system. The system uses high performance graphic workstations and the X-windows Graphical User Interface (GUI) at the operator interface level. It connects to VME/VXI-based microprocessors at the field level using TCP/IP protocols over high performance networks. This strategy assures the flexibility and expansibility of the control system. A defined interface between the system components will allow the system to evolve with the direct addition of future, improved equipment and new capabilities.

  10. Status and design of the Advanced Photon Source control system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDowell, W.; Knott, M.; Lenkszus, F.; Kraimer, M.; Arnold, N.; Daly, R.

    1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the current status of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) control system. It will discuss the design decisions which led us to use industrial standards and collaborations with other laboratories to develop the APS control system. The system uses high performance graphic workstations and the X-windows Graphical User Interface (GUI) at the operator interface level. It connects to VME/VXI-based microprocessors at the field level using TCP/IP protocols over high performance networks. This strategy assures the flexibility and expansibility of the control system. A defined interface between the system components will allow the system to evolve with the direct addition of future, improved equipment and new capabilities.

  11. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  12. The Method of Distributed Volumetric Sources for Forecasting the Transient and Pseudo-steady State Productivity of Multiple Transverse Fractures Intersected by a Horizontal Well

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, Diangeng

    2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    from 9/1/2007 .........................................................64? 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1 General Background In an era of declining production and increasing demand, economically producing gas from unconventional sources is the next... In an era of declining production and increasing demand, economically producing gas from unconventional sources is the next level of the fossil-fuel recovery challenge. 6 The mammoth volume and long-term potential of coalbed methane (CBM), tight gas...

  13. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  14. Reliability analysis of electric power systems including time dependent sources 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Younjong

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Chairman of Advisory Committee: Chanan Singh A method for reliability analysis of electric power systems with time dependent sources, such as photovoltaic and wind generation, is introduced. The fluctuating characteristic of unconventional generation... and active solar. wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Of all the renewable energy technologies that have been the focus of encouraging government and private R k D efforts, photovoltaic generation and wind turbine generation appear to be the leading...

  15. Advanced Neutron Source reactor control and plant protection systems design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anderson, J.L.; Battle, R.E.; March-Leuba, J. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Khayat, M.I. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States))

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes the reactor control and plant protection systems' conceptual design of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS). The Plant Instrumentation, Control, and Data Systems and the Reactor Instrumentation and Control System of the ANS are planned as an integrated digital system with a hierarchical, distributed control structure of qualified redundant subsystems and a hybrid digital/analog protection system to achieve the necessary fast response for critical parameters. Data networks transfer information between systems for control, display, and recording. Protection is accomplished by the rapid insertion of negative reactivity with control rods or other reactivity mechanisms to shut down the fission process and reduce heat generation in the fuel. The shutdown system is designed for high functional reliability by use of conservative design features and a high degree of redundance and independence to guard against single failures. Two independent reactivity control systems of different design principles are provided, and each system has multiple independent rods or subsystems to provide appropriate margin for malfunctions such as stuck rods or other single failures. Each system is capable of maintaining the reactor in a cold shutdown condition independently of the functioning of the other system. A highly reliable, redundant channel control system is used not only to achieve high availability of the reactor, but also to reduce challenges to the protection system by maintaining important plant parameters within appropriate limits. The control system has a number of contingency features to maintain acceptable, off-normal conditions in spite of limited control or plant component failures thereby further reducing protection system challenges.

  16. Electric machine and current source inverter drive system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hsu, John S

    2014-06-24T23:59:59.000Z

    A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

  17. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  19. Cesium Delivery System for Negative Ion Source at IPR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Pandya, K.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382 428 (India); Bandyopadhyay, M.; Chakraborty, A.; Singh, M. J. [ITER- India, Institute for Plasma Research, A-29, Sector 25, GIDC, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2011-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The technique of surface production of negative ions using cesium, Cs, has been efficiently exploited over the years for producing negative ion beams with increased current densities from negative ion sources used on neutral beam lines. Deposition of Cs on the source walls and the plasma grid lowers the work function and therefore enables a higher yield of H{sup -}, when hydrogen particles (H and/or H{sub x}{sup +}) strike these surfaces.A single driver RF based (100 kW, 1 MHz) negative ion source test bed, ROBIN, is being set up at IPR under a technical collaboration between IPR and IPP, Germany. The optimization of the Cs oven design to be used on this facility as well as multidriver sources is underway. The characterization experiments of such a Cs delivery system with a 1 g Cs inventory have been carried out using surface ionization technique. The experiments have been carried by delivering Cs into a vacuum chamber without plasma. The linear motion of the surface ionization detector, SID, attached with a linear motion feedthrough allows measuring the angular distribution of the Cs coming out of the oven. Based on the experimental results, a Cs oven for ROBIN has been proposed. The Cs oven design and experimental results of the prototype Cs oven are reported and discussed in the paper.

  20. The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

  1. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  2. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    multiple water-to-air heat pump units, which are connectedeach of the water-to-air heat pump units can run in eitheras other types of air source heat pumps, VRF systems need

  3. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  4. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  5. Optical laser systems at the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Minitti, Michael P.; Robinson, Joseph S.; Coffee, Ryan N.; Edstrom, Steve; Gilevich, Sasha; Glownia, James M.; Granados, Eduardo; Hering, Philippe; Hoffmann, Matthias C.; Miahnahri, Alan; et al

    2015-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Ultrafast optical lasers play an essential role in exploiting the unique capabilities of recently commissioned X-ray free-electron laser facilities such as the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Pump–probe experimental techniques reveal ultrafast dynamics in atomic and molecular processes and reveal new insights in chemistry, biology, material science and high-energy-density physics. This manuscript describes the laser systems and experimental methods that enable cutting-edge optical laser/X-ray pump–probe experiments to be performed at LCLS.

  6. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  7. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  8. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  9. SOURCE?

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Department of Energy (DOE) in partnership with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is an open-source code package designed to be a common, low-cost, standardized tool...

  10. A Stochastic Calculus for Network Systems with Renewable Energy Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wu, Kui; Marinakis, Dimitri

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We consider the performance modeling and evaluation of network systems powered with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Such energy sources largely depend on environmental conditions, which are hard to predict accurately. As such, it may only make sense to require the network systems to support a soft quality of service (QoS) guarantee, i.e., to guarantee a service requirement with a certain high probability. In this paper, we intend to build a solid mathematical foundation to help better understand the stochastic energy constraint and the inherent correlation between QoS and the uncertain energy supply. We utilize a calculus approach to model the cumulative amount of charged energy and the cumulative amount of consumed energy. We derive upper and lower bounds on the remaining energy level based on a stochastic energy charging rate and a stochastic energy discharging rate. By building the bridge between energy consumption and task execution (i.e., service), we study the QoS guarantee under...

  11. Electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Dagenhart, William K. (Oak Ridge, TN); Stirling, William L. (Oak Ridge, TN)

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An electron energy recovery system for negative ion sources is provided. The system, employs crossed electric and magnetic fields to separate the electrons from ions as they are extracted from a negative ion source plasma generator and before the ions are accelerated to their full kinetic energy. With the electric and magnetic fields oriented 90.degree. to each other, the electrons are separated from the plasma and remain at approximately the electrical potential of the generator in which they were generated. The electrons migrate from the ion beam path in a precessing motion out of the ion accelerating field region into an electron recovery region provided by a specially designed electron collector electrode. The electron collector electrode is uniformly spaced from a surface of the ion generator which is transverse to the direction of migration of the electrons and the two surfaces are contoured in a matching relationship which departs from a planar configuration to provide an electric field component in the recovery region which is parallel to the magnetic field thereby forcing the electrons to be directed into and collected by the electron collector electrode. The collector electrode is maintained at a potential slightly positive with respect to the ion generator so that the electrons are collected at a small fraction of the full accelerating supply voltage energy.

  12. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  13. HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+ M.H. Khan, 74078, USA ABSTRACT This paper presents a simulation of a hybrid ground source heat pump system, performed using a new graphical user interface for HVACSIM+. Hybrid ground source heat pump systems

  14. Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

  15. Control system for insertion devices at the advanced photon source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, O.A.; Den Hartog, P.; Moog, E.R.; Smith, M.L. [Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois60439-4800 (United States)

    1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Eighteen insertion devices (IDs) are installed at the Advanced Photon Source (APS), and three more are scheduled for installation by the end of this year. A distributed control system for insertion devices at the APS storage ring was created with the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). The basic components of this system are operator interfaces (OPIs), input output controllers (IOCs), and a local area network that allows the OPI and IOC to communicate. The IOC operates under the VxWorks OS with an EPICS database and a sequencer. The sequencer runs an ID control program written in State Notation Language. The OPI is built with the EPICS tool MEDM and provides display screens with input and output fields and buttons for gap control of the IDs. Global commands like {open_quotes}open all IDs{close_quotes} are C-shell scripts invoked from the display menu. The algorithms for control and protection of the ID and ID vacuum chamber and the accuracy of gap control are discussed. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  16. Control system for insertion devices at the Advanced Photon Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, O.A.; Den Hartog, P.; Moog, E.R.; Smith, M.L. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Advanced Photon Source

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Eighteen insertion devices (IDs) are installed at the Advanced Photon Source (APS), and three more are scheduled for installation by the end of this year. A distributed control system for insertion devices at the APS storage ring was created with the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). The basic components of this system are operator interfaces (OPIs), input output controllers (IOCs), and a local area network that allows the OPI and IOC to communicate. The IOC operates under the VxWorks OS with an EPICS database and a sequencer. The sequencer runs an ID control program written in State Notation Language. The OPI is built with the EPICS tool MEDM and provides display screens with input and output fields and buttons for gap control of the IDs. Global commands like ``open all IDs`` are C-shell scripts invoked from the display menu. The algorithms for control and protection of the ID and ID vacuum chamber and the accuracy of gap control are discussed.

  17. Control system for insertion devices at the advanced photon source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Oleg A.; Den Hartog, Patric; Moog, Elizabeth R.; Smith, Martin L. [Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439-4800 (United States)

    1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Eighteen insertion devices (IDs) are installed at the Advanced Photon Source (APS), and three more are scheduled for installation by the end of this year. A distributed control system for insertion devices at the APS storage ring was created with the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). The basic components of this system are operator interfaces (OPIs), input output controllers (IOCs), and a local area network that allows the OPI and IOC to communicate. The IOC operates under the VxWorks OS with an EPICS database and a sequencer. The sequencer runs an ID control program written in State Notation Language. The OPI is built with the EPICS tool MEDM and provides display screens with input and output fields and buttons for gap control of the IDs. Global commands like 'open all IDs' are C-shell scripts invoked from the display menu. The algorithms for control and protection of the ID and ID vacuum chamber and the accuracy of gap control are discussed.

  18. Multiple delivery cesium oven system for negative ion sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bansal, G.; Bhartiya, S.; Pandya, K.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, M. J.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382428 (India)

    2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Distribution of cesium in large negative ion beam sources to be operational in ITER, is presently based on the use of three or more cesium ovens, which operate simultaneously and are controlled remotely. However, use of multiple Cs ovens simultaneously is likely to pose difficulties in operation and maintenance of the ovens. An alternate method of Cs delivery, based on a single oven distribution system is proposed as one which could reduce the need of simultaneous operation of many ovens. A proof of principle experiment verifying the concept of a multinozzle distributor based Cs oven has been carried out at Institute for Plasma Research. It is also observed that the Cs flux is not controlled by Cs reservoir temperature after few hours of operation but by the temperature of the distributor which starts behaving as a Cs reservoir.

  19. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  2. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  3. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  4. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  5. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 5 report: Jet fuel conversion by Pacific fuel suppliers and impacts on Navy fuel availability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Das, S.; Lee, R.; Domingo, N.; Davis, R.M.

    1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    NATO members have made the commitment to convert land-based jet aircraft from naphtha-type JP-4 jet fuel to kerosene-type JP-8. JP-8 has safety advantages because of its relatively low volatility. With the NATO conversion underway, the US military has conducted market surveys to determine the effects of jet fuel conversion in the Pacific basin. This report describes the application of the economic and engineering models of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System to predict the effects of jet fuel conversion in the Pacific basin. The primary objective of the study was to estimate the impacts of conversion on the cost and quality of Navy jet and marine fuels. The study predicts that the average cost increase for producing JP-8 instead of JP-4 is 5 cents per gallon. The associated cost increases for Navy fuels are 0.4 cents per gallon for JP-5 jet fuel; 0.2 cents per gallon for F-76 marine diesel fuel; and 0.4 cents per gallon for F-77 burner fuel oil. Conversion has little effect on the quality of Navy fuels. With or without conversion, the study predicts that Navy fuels produced in the US West Coast could have increased tendencies to form gums and other particulates, with potentially adverse impacts on storage stability. 22 refs., 2 figs., 11 tabs.

  7. Study of the design Method of an Efficient Ground Source Heat Pump Thermal Source System in a Cold Area 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.; Zou, Y.; Du, G.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system-an energy efficiency and environment friendly system-is becoming popular in many parts of China. However, an imbalance usually exists between the annual heat extracted from and rejected to the ground due...

  8. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  9. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  10. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  11. On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van der Aalst, Wil

    On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1 , Arthur H.M. ter Hofstede2 , Nick Russell3 Management (BPM) systems and the increasing acceptance and spread of open source software. This development and BPM systems? 2. What is the maturity level of these systems? Seeking answers to these questions we

  12. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  13. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  14. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  15. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  16. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  17. 3818 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 28, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2013 Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Similar Shape

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sapatinas, Theofanis

    to electricity authorities worldwide to use as far as possible the low functionality cost machines for covering is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar is an integrable process in the design of power systems faced by electricity authorities world- wide. It involves

  18. Development of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fujimoto, Hiroshi

    photovoltaic system 1. INTRODUCTION Solid state inverters allow to put photovoltaic (PV) systems into the powerDevelopment of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System-phase three-level current source inverter (CSI) driven by a single gate-drive power supply in both chopper

  19. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  20. Seismic and infrasonic source processes in volcanic fluid systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matoza, Robin S.

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    in Infrasonic Early Warning Systems. IUGG XXIV Generaland the PEGASAS-VE early-warning system. In Proceedings of

  1. NiSource Energy Technologies: Optimizing Combined Heat and Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

  2. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  3. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  4. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  5. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  6. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  7. Ball State Completes Largest U.S. Ground-Source Geothermal System...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ground-source geothermal system, the nation's largest geothermal heating and cooling system, DOE announced on March 20. DOE played a part in the project by providing a 5 million...

  8. Combined Operation of Solar Energy Source Heat Pump, Low-vale Electricity and Floor Radiant System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, G.; Guo, Z.; Hu, S.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    solar energy, low-vale electricity as heat sources in a floor radiant system are analyzed. This paper presents a new heat pump system and discusses its operational modes in winter....

  9. Designing and testing the neutron source deployment system and calibration plan for a dark matter detector

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Westerdale, Shawn (Shawn S.)

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this thesis, we designed and tested a calibration and deployment system for the MiniCLEAN dark matter detector. The deployment system uses a computer controlled winch to lower a canister containing a neutron source into ...

  10. A framework for quantifying complexity and understanding its sources : application to tow large-scale systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martin, Pierre-Alain J. Y

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The motivation for this work is to quantify the complexity of complex systems and to understand its sources. To study complexity, we develop a theoretical framework where the complex system of interest is embedded in a ...

  11. Combined Operation of Solar Energy Source Heat Pump, Low-vale Electricity and Floor Radiant System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, G.; Guo, Z.; Hu, S.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    solar energy, low-vale electricity as heat sources in a floor radiant system are analyzed. This paper presents a new heat pump system and discusses its operational modes in winter....

  12. Integration of renewable energy sources: reliability-constrained power system planning and operations using computational intelligence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Lingfeng

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    studied in the dissertation include reliability evaluation of power systems with time-dependent energy sources, multi-objective design of hybrid generation systems, risk and cost tradeoff in economic dispatch with wind power penetration, optimal placement...

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  14. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  15. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  16. he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemmers, Oliver

    T he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the economic recovery in 2014 predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada from 2014 onward. The Las Vegas economy-Term Economic Forecast Figure 1: Total Employment (1990-2050) Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

  17. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  18. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  19. SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agrawal, Gagan

    SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources Fan Wang Gagan that are hidden behind query forms, thus forming what is re- ferred to as the deep web. In this paper, we propose SEEDEEP, a System for Exploring and quErying scientific DEEP web data sources. SEEDEEP is able

  20. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION M in a ground source heat pump system falls near or below 0o C, an antifreeze mixture must be used to prevent freezing in the heat pump. The antifreeze mixture type and concentration has a number of implications

  1. Source Information Transmission over MIMO Systems with Transmitter Side Information

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liebling, Michael

    Dept. of Electrical and Computer Eng. University of California, Santa Barbara Jerry D. Gibson Dept. of Electrical and Computer Eng. University of California, Santa Barbara Email: gibson@ece.ucsb.edu Marco Chiani, it encoded and transmitted the source information using a constant rate, chosen to achieve a selected outage

  2. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    process unit is not operating (down) is specified. If the process will be operating for the entire period, the word "LP" is displayed. PRODUCTION SCHEDULE 2/20/92 - 5/20/82 UNIT 1 A UP 2 B UP D 2./20-3./15 D 4.19. TO- 3 C D 2./20-3./15 D 4..../9. TO- 4 D 5 E D 4./15 TO- UP 6 F D 2./20-2./21 7 G UP 9 I UP 8 H D 2./20-3./13 D 3./27 TO- 10 J 11 K D 2./20 TO- 12 L UP 13 M UP UP 15 0 14 N UP D 2./20-2./24 D 3./7.-3./17 D 3./28 TO- 16 P 17 G D 4./1. TO- 19 R II 3...

  3. Field Test of High Efficiency Residential Buildings with Ground-source and Air-source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ally, Moonis Raza [ORNL] [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL] [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes the field performance of space conditioning and water heating equipment in four single-family residential structures with advanced thermal envelopes. Each structure features a different, advanced thermal envelope design: structural insulated panel (SIP); optimum value framing (OVF); insulation with embedded phase change materials (PCM) for thermal storage; and exterior insulation finish system (EIFS). Three of the homes feature ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) for space conditioning and water heating while the fourth has a two-capacity air-source heat pump (ASHP) and a heat pump water heater (HPWH). Two of the GCHP-equipped homes feature horizontal ground heat exchange (GHX) loops that utillize the existing foundation and utility service trenches while the third features a vertical borehole with vertical u-tube GHX. All of the houses were operated under the same simulated occupancy conditions. Operational data on the house HVAC/Water heating (WH) systems are presented and factors influencing overall performance are summarized.

  4. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  5. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  6. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  7. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  8. Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

  9. Method and system for imaging a radiation source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Myjak, Mitchell J. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA

    2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

  10. An integrated strategic sourcing process for complex systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsu, David T. (David Ta-wei)

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Aerospace firms continue to outsource increasingly complex components and systems for access to talent, lower costs, and global presence. In addition to strong competition from Airbus and other emergent companies, Boeing ...

  11. COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

  12. Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perry, Dewayne E.

    Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems Dewayne changes occur outside the tool. In contrast, Infuse concentrates on the actual change process and provides facilities for both managing and coordinating source changes. Infuse provides facilities for automatically

  13. Reliability analysis of electric power systems including time dependent sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Younjong

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    ' the PEP S subsystem is computed by: POP, = NP POt (3. 22) where POPt = power output of the PEPS subsystem during the jth hour NP = number of PEPS units in the subsystem 25 The parameters used for designing the PEPS subsystem are taken from I5... and wind velocity data are obtained for output computation. The capacity of two unconventional subsystem is designed to be equal to each other. 5. 1 System Description Generation System For the purpose of this study, one of the EPRI reduced scenarios...

  14. Impact of Dynamic PHEVs Load on Renewable Sources based Distribution System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pota, Himanshu Roy

    Impact of Dynamic PHEVs Load on Renewable Sources based Distribution System F. R. Islam, H. R. Pota.Roy@student.adfa.edu.au Abstract--In this paper, charging effect of dynamic Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is presented in a renewable energy based electricity distribution system. For planning and designing a distribution system

  15. Biofilms as sources of fecal bacteria contamination in the stormwater drainage system in Singapore

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burkhart, Tsung Hwa (Tsung Hwa Sophia)

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A study was performed to examine a possible source of fecal bacteria contamination originating from within the stormwater drainage system in Singapore. The extent of fecal bacteria presence in storm drain biofilms was ...

  16. DYNAMIC MODELLING OF AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS INCLUDING RENEWABLE POWER SOURCES.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    (thermal, gas, diesel) and renewable (hydro, wind) power units. The objective is to assess the impact - that have a special dynamic behaviour, and the wind turbines. Detailed models for each one of the power system components are developed. Emphasis is given in the representation of different hydro power plant

  17. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  18. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  19. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  20. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  1. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    solar photovoltaics (PV) in electric power systems utilizingphotovoltaics (PV) in traditional electric power systems

  2. Performance Evaluation of a ground source heat pump system based on ANN and ANFIS models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sun, W.; Hu, P.; Lei, F.; Zhu, N.; Zhang,J.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Performance evaluation of a ground source heat pump system based on ANN and ANFIS models Weijuan SUN a, Pingfang HUa,*, Fei Leia, Na Zhua, Jiangning Zhanga aHuazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China Abstract...: The aim of this work is to calculate the heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) and the system COP of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system based on an artificial neural network (ANN) model and (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model...

  3. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  4. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  5. ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

  6. Multi-cusp ion source for Gen 5.5 doping system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Inouchi, Yutaka; Matsumoto, Takeshi; Dohi, Shojiro; Tanii, Masahiro; Takahashi, Genki; Imai, Katsuharu; Nishimura, Ippei; Tatemichi, Junichi; Konishi, Masashi; Naito, Masao [Nissin Ion Equipment Co., Ltd., 29 Hinokigaoka, Minakuchi-cho, Koka, Shiga, 528-0068 (Japan)

    2012-11-06T23:59:59.000Z

    A multi-cusp ion source was designed for Nissin ion doping system 'iG5' developed for GEN5.5 processes. It has many points of similarity to iG4 ion source. The extraction area and the internal volume of the plasma chamber are scaled up. And the method to obtain high current B{sup +} beams is same as iG4 ion source. On the other hand, iG5 ion source has an added feature on the extraction system. We use new developed multi-slit extraction system to obtain stable beams with small divergence. The target boron beam current density of 1mA/cm (that is 130mA) was obtained.

  7. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  8. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  9. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    modeling of solar steam- generators, solar water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power generation systems,

  10. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  11. System for recovery of daughter isotopes from a source material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tranter, Troy J. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Todd, Terry A. (Aberdeen, ID) [Aberdeen, ID; Lewis, Leroy C. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Henscheid, Joseph P. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of separating isotopes from a mixture containing at least two isotopes in a solution is disclosed. A first isotope is precipitated and is collected from the solution. A daughter isotope is generated and collected from the first isotope. The invention includes a method of producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product from a material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232. A solution is formed containing nitric acid and the material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232, and iodate is added to form a thorium iodate precipitate. A supernatant is separated from the thorium iodate precipitate and a second volume of nitric acid is added to the thorium iodate precipitate. The thorium iodate precipitate is stored and a decay product comprising actinium-225 and bismuth-213 is generated in the second volume of nitric acid, which is then separated from the thorium iodate precipitate, filtered, and treated using at least one chromatographic procedure. A system for producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product is also disclosed.

  12. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power transmission systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnes, P.R.; Dykas, W.P.; Kirby, B.J.; Purucker, S.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Lawler, J.S. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines are nonconventional, environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources (very sunny or windy areas) are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. This study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these high-capacity renewable sources ranged from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility.

  13. Short communication Optimization of hybrid ground coupled and air source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fernández de Córdoba, Pedro

    Short communication Optimization of hybrid ­ ground coupled and air source ­ heat pump systems 2008 Accepted 14 January 2010 Available online 28 January 2010 Keywords: Ground coupled heat pump Air to water heat pump Thermal storage device Hybrid HVAC system Energy efficiency Numerical simulation a b

  14. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 2, Utility case assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaininger, H.W.; Ellis, P.R.; Schaefer, J.C. [Zaininger Engineering Co., San Jose, CA (United States)

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: (1) The local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics; (2) renewable energy source penetration level; (3) whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied; and (4) local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kw-scale applications may be connected to three-phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and MW-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications.

  15. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is ³delayed² and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  17. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  18. VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2 HVAC&R RESEARCH APRIL 2005 Ground-Source Heat Pump System Research--

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    VOLUME 11, NUMBER 2 HVAC&R RESEARCH APRIL 2005 165 EDITORIAL Ground-Source Heat Pump System Research-- Past, Present, and Future J.D. Spitler, PhD, PE Fellow ASHRAE Ground-source heat pump (GSHP-source heat pumps installed worldwide. These systems may be closed-loop ("ground-coupled") or open

  19. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely

  20. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  1. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  2. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  3. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake. The in- crease in computer power in recent years and advances in numerical mesoscale models of both ocean Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed

  4. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  5. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  8. Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, and chemical reactant sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kong, Peter C

    2013-11-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, chemical reactant sources, and related methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor system comprising a reaction chamber, a combustion torch positioned to direct a flame into the reaction chamber, and one or more reactant feed assemblies configured to electrically energize at least one electrically conductive solid reactant structure to form a plasma and feed each electrically conductive solid reactant structure into the plasma to form at least one product is disclosed. In an additional embodiment, a chemical reactant source for a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor comprising an elongated electrically conductive reactant structure consisting essentially of at least one chemical reactant is disclosed. In further embodiments, methods of forming a chemical reactant source and methods of chemically converting at least one reactant into at least one product are disclosed.

  9. Data acquisition system for the neutron scattering instruments at the intense pulsed neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crawford, R.K.; Daly, R.T.; Haumann, J.R.; Hitterman, R.L.; Morgan, C.B.; Ostrowski, G.E.; Worlton, T.G.

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) at Argonne National Laboratory is a major new user-oriented facility which is now coming on line for basic research in neutron scattering and neutron radiation damage. This paper describes the data-acquisition system which will handle data acquisition and instrument control for the time-of-flight neutron-scattering instruments at IPNS. This discussion covers the scientific and operational requirements for this system, and the system architecture that was chosen to satisfy these requirements. It also provides an overview of the current system implementation including brief descriptions of the hardware and software which have been developed.

  10. Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage Systems*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pedram, Massoud

    Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage massimo.poncino@polito.it Abstract-- Hybrid electrical energy storage (HEES) systems consist of multiple banks of heterogeneous electrical energy storage (EES) elements that are connected to each other through

  11. A Novel Integrated Frozen Soil Thermal Energy Storage and Ground-Source Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Y.; Yao, Y.; Rong, L.; Ma, Z.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, a novel integrated frozen soil thermal energy storage and ground-source heat pump (IFSTS&GSHP) system in which the GHE can act as both cold thermal energy storage device and heat exchanger for GSHP is first presented. The IFSTS...

  12. Blind Identification of MIMO FIR Systems Driven by Quasi-Stationary Sources Using Second Order

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reilly, James P.

    1 Blind Identification of MIMO FIR Systems Driven by Quasi-Stationary Sources Using Second Order This paper discusses a frequency domain method for blind identification of MIMO convolutive channels driven are presented to demonstrate the performance of the new algorithm1 . I. Introduction Blind identification

  13. Journal of Power Sources 134 (2004) 130138 Performance optimization of a batterycapacitor hybrid system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Popov, Branko N.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    -ion battery with commercial super capacitors using impedance measurement were car- ried out by Chu and Braatz and the battery system were compared under a similar set of operating parameters. 2. Experimental A Sony US 18650Journal of Power Sources 134 (2004) 130­138 Performance optimization of a battery­capacitor hybrid

  14. Discussions on Disposal Forms of Auxiliary Heat Source in Surface Water Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.; Li, G.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents two common forms of auxiliary heat source in surface water heat pump system and puts forward the idea that the disposal forms affect operation cost. It deduces operation cost per hour of the two forms. With a project...

  15. A Novel Integrated Frozen Soil Thermal Energy Storage and Ground-Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jiang, Y.; Yao, Y.; Rong, L.; Ma, Z.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, a novel integrated frozen soil thermal energy storage and ground-source heat pump (IFSTS&GSHP) system in which the GHE can act as both cold thermal energy storage device and heat exchanger for GSHP is first presented. The IFSTS...

  16. Smart Engineering System Design, vol. 4:243-252, 2002 NETWORK CONGESTION ARBITRATION AND SOURCE PROBLEM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Varela, Carlos

    to address the problem. However, these tools simply give the network administrator a great deal1 Smart Engineering System Design, vol. 4:243-252, 2002 NETWORK CONGESTION ARBITRATION AND SOURCE PROBLEM PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS J. ALAN BIVENS Computer Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  17. Thermal Economic Analysis of an Underground Water Source Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, W.; Lin, B.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper presents the thermal economic analysis of an underground water source heat pump system in a high school building based on usage per exergy cost as an evaluation standard, in which the black box model has been used and the cost...

  18. Discussions on Disposal Forms of Auxiliary Heat Source in Surface Water Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.; Li, G.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents two common forms of auxiliary heat source in surface water heat pump system and puts forward the idea that the disposal forms affect operation cost. It deduces operation cost per hour of the two forms. With a project...

  19. Towards a comprehensive open-source system for geophysical data processing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Patterson, William P.

    used in seismic interpretation. These three components operate in parallel on a distributed computerTowards a comprehensive open-source system for geophysical data processing and interpretation Glenn of a broad range of geophysical data, with emphasis on reflection/refraction seismics. The package also

  20. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  1. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  2. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  3. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  4. Electron emission in a source-collector sheath system: A kinetic study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rizopoulou, N., E-mail: nikoleta.rizopoulou06@imperial.ac.uk; Coppins, M.; Bacharis, M. [Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BW (United Kingdom); Robinson, A. P. L. [Central Laser Facility, Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0QX (United Kingdom)

    2014-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The classical source-collector sheath system describes a plasma that forms between a Maxwellian source and an absorbing wall. The plasma is assumed to be collisionless and without ionization. Two distinct areas are being formed: the collector sheath, an ion-rich region in contact with the absorbing boundary, and the source sheath, which is an electron-rich area near the Maxwellian source. In this work, we study a modified version of the classical source-collector sheath system, where the wall is no longer absorbing but emits electrons. As a result, we have two different types of collector sheath, one where a potential well is formed and one without a potential well. We examine the effect of electron emission for a range of conditions for the plasma and the emitted electrons. In the first part of this work, we study the problem analytically, and in the second, using our kinetic Vlasov code, Yggdrasil. The simulation results are in very good agreement with the predictions of our theoretical model.

  5. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    heat pump, and the energy consumption of the whole GSHP system given the accurate information of the building, GSHP system, weather data,

  6. Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghafghazi, Saeed [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sowlati, T. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Melin, Staffan [Delta Research Corporation

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these options. Conclusions Natural gas utilization as the primary heat source for district heat production implies environmental complications beyond just the global warming impacts. Diffusing renewable energy sources for generating the base load district heat would reduce human toxicity, ecosystem quality degradation, global warming, and resource depletion compared to the case of natural gas. Reducing fossil fuel dependency in various stages of wood pellet production can remarkably reduce the upstream global warming impact of using wood pellets for district heat generation.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

  8. Diversity systems for Rayleigh fading channels: an application of multiple description source codes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Shih-Ming

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    for R=3, k=3 (left) and 4 (right). V Index assignments for R=3, k=5 (left) and 6 (right). 46 46 47 47 VI Optimum 15-level MDSQ design for a unit variance memoryless Gaussian source, R = 3. 0 bpss, E(ds) = 0. 010527, E(ds) E(ds) = 0. 036519. 48... VII Optimum 31-level MDSQ design for a unit variance memory- less Gaussian source, R = 4. 0 bps, E(ds) =0. 0026756, E(dr) = E(ds) =0. 0098501. 49 VIII Optimal thresholds for the 39, 47, 53, and 57-level MDSQ-based systems using the central and side...

  9. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Short Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents the a brief overview of the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems. A full report of this case study is also available.

  10. Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

  11. Control system for 5 MW neutral beam ion source for SST1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Patel, G.B.; Onali, Raja; Sharma, Vivek; Suresh, S.; Tripathi, V.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, N.P.; Thakkar, Dipal; Gupta, L.N.; Singh, M.J.; Patel, P.J.; Chakraborty, A.K.; Baruah, U.K.; Mattoo, S.K. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India-382428 (India)

    2006-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This article describes the control system for a 5 MW ion source of the NBI (neutral beam injector) for steady-state superconducting tokamak-1 (SST-1). The system uses both hardware and software solutions. It comprises a DAS (data acquisition system) and a control system. The DAS is used to read the voltage and current signals from eight filament heater power supplies and 24 discharge power supplies. The control system is used to adjust the filament heater current in order to achieve an effective control on the discharge current in the plasma box. The system consists of a VME (Verse Module Eurocard) system and C application program running on a VxWorks{sup TM} real-time operating system. A PID (proportional, integral, and differential) algorithm is used to control the filament heater current. Experiments using this system have shown that the discharge current can be controlled within 1% accuracy for a PID loop time of 20 ms. Response of the control system to the pressure variation of the gas in the chamber has also been studied and compared with the results obtained from those of an uncontrolled system. The present approach increases the flexibility of the control system. It not only eases the control of the plasma but also allows an easy changeover to various operation scenarios.

  12. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 1: National assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnes, P.R.; Van Dyke, J.W. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Tesche, F.M. [6714 Norway Road, Dallas, TX (United States); Zaininger, H.W. [Zaininger Engineering Co., San Jose, CA (United States)

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaic, solar thermal electricity, and wind turbine power are environmentally beneficial sources of electric power generation. The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems can provide additional economic benefits because of a reduction in the losses associated with transmission and distribution lines. Benefits associated with the deferment of transmission and distribution investment may also be possible for cases where there is a high correlation between peak circuit load and renewable energy electric generation, such as photovoltaic systems in the Southwest. Case studies were conducted with actual power distribution system data for seven electric utilities with the participation of those utilities. Integrating renewable energy systems into electric power distribution systems increased the value of the benefits by about 20 to 55% above central station benefits in the national regional assessment. In the case studies presented in Vol. II, the range was larger: from a few percent to near 80% for a case where costly investments were deferred. In general, additional savings of at least 10 to 20% can be expected by integrating at the distribution level. Wind energy systems were found to be economical in good wind resource regions, whereas photovoltaic systems costs are presently a factor of 2.5 too expensive under the most favorable conditions.

  13. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  14. Spark-protected ion-source control and monitoring system at 1. 5 MV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bogaty, J.M.; Zolecki, R.

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Heavy Ion Fusion Program at Argonne National Laboratory utilizes a 1.5-MV Xe ion preaccelerator. Reliable beam transport requires accurate measurements and precise control of various ion-source parameters. This paper discusses the use of a multiplexed fiberoptic data-transmission system and low-cost digital stepper motors for control functions. Techniques are discussed which allow TTL and CMOS semiconductor curcuits to survive the destructive sparks which can occur in the 1.5-MV preaccelerator.

  15. Standards and the design of the Advanced Photon Source control system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McDowell, W.P.; Knott, M.J.; Lenkszus, F.R.; Kraimer, M.R.; Daly, R.T.; Arnold, N.D.; Anderson, M.D.; Anderson, J.B.; Zieman, R.C.; Cha, Ben-Chin K.; Vong, F.C.; Nawrocki, G.J.; Gunderson, G.R.; Karonis, N.T.; Winans, J.R.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Advanced Photon Source (APS), now under construction at Argonne National Laboratory is a 7 GeV positron storage ring dedicated to research facilities using synchrotron radiation. This ring, along with its injection accelerators is to be controlled and monitored with a single, flexible, and expandable control system. In the conceptual stage the control system design group faced the challenges that face all control system designers: to force the machine designers to quantify and codify the system requirements, to protect the investment in hardware and software from rapid obsolescence, and to find methods of quickly incorporating new generations of equipment and replace of obsolete equipment without disrupting the exiting system. To solve these and related problems, the APS control system group made an early resolution to use standards in the design of the system. This paper will cover the present status of the APS control system as well as discuss the design decisions which led us to use industrial standards and collaborations with other laboratories whenever possible to develop a control system. It will explain the APS control system and illustrate how the use of standards has allowed APS to design a control system whose implementation addresses these issues. The system will use high performance graphic workstations using an X-Windows Graphical User Interface at the operator interface level. It connects to VME-based microprocessors at the field level using TCP/IP protocols over high performance networks. This strategy assures the flexibility and expansibility of the control system. A defined interface between the system components will allow the system to evolve with the direct addition of future, improved equipment and new capabilities.

  16. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  17. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    -effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future a reliable power system with just enough capacity (with proper reliability margins) to support their customers. Distribution systems are the retail part of utilities that supply power to their customers

  18. Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Tainzhen

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigeranttheir superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerantfew studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems

  19. Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jurns, John M. [European Spallation Source ESS AB, P.O. Box 176, 221 00 Lund (Sweden); Bäck, Harald [Sweco Industry AB, P.O. Box 286, 201 22 Malmö (Sweden); Gierow, Martin [Lunds Energikoncernen AB, P.O. Box 25, 221 00 Lund (Sweden)

    2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  1. Organic facies and systems tracts: Implications for source rock preservation and prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kosters, E.C.; Vanderzwaan, F.J.; Gijsbert, J. (Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands))

    1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sequence stratigraphy is concerned with making predictions about reservoirs ahead of the drill, however, little attention has been paid to the configuration of organic-rich facies of source rock quality. We suggest that preservation of source rock type facies in clastic systems is mutually exclusive and time successive. The main database is a collection of cores and other samples through the Holocene Rhone delta. The early Holocene Transgressive Systems Tract (TST) contains five levels of channelization. The most significant peat bed is located immediately landward of the shoreline of maximum transgression (SMT). The Highstand Systems Tract (HST) consists of two parasequences, containing mostly laterally continuous strandplain complexes without peat. In addition to sufficient accommodation space, an important control on formation of fresh-water peats and organic-rich shelf muds is availability of river-induced nutrients. Peat quality, however, is best without riverine clastics. In a delta plain, a balance between these two controls may be reached when river-fed nutrients are trapped there indirectly. The potential for such a condition arises in a TST setting. On the shelf, eutrophication of marine habitats is also controlled by river-fed nutrients, but excess river clastics are detrimental to marine source rock quality. A balance between these two controls may be reached in HST settings where fine-grained riverine clastics are forced onto the shelf rather than in the delta plain. In this case, nutrient supply to the shelf results in large quantities of marine biomass. This biomass becomes sufficiently concentrated due to moderate fine-grained riverine sedimentation which guarantees burial and preservation. Thus, varying river-water and nutrient supply in TST and HST settings seems to control large-scale preservation patterns of both continental and marine organics. This hypothesis suggests further potential for using sequence stratigraphy for source rock occurrence.

  2. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  3. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  4. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  5. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  6. Study of the design Method of an Efficient Ground Source Heat Pump Thermal Source System in a Cold Area

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.; Zou, Y.; Du, G.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2005, 6(2):162-165.(In Chinese) [4] Sun Jianping, Wang Jinggang, etc. Operating performance analysis of the ground source heat pump [J]. Journal of North China electric Power University, 2004,31(5):52-55.(In Chinese) [5] Wang...

  7. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new high-fidelity integrated system method and analysis approach was developed and implemented for consistent and comprehensive evaluations of advanced fuel cycles leading to minimized Transuranic (TRU) inventories. The method has been implemented in a developed code system integrating capabilities of Monte Carlo N - Particle Extended (MCNPX) for high-fidelity fuel cycle component simulations. In this report, a Nuclear Energy System (NES) configuration was developed to take advantage of used fuel recycling and transmutation capabilities in waste management scenarios leading to minimized TRU waste inventories, long-term activities, and radiotoxicities. The reactor systems and fuel cycle components that make up the NES were selected for their ability to perform in tandem to produce clean, safe, and dependable energy in an environmentally conscious manner. The diversity in performance and spectral characteristics were used to enhance TRU waste elimination while efficiently utilizing uranium resources and providing an abundant energy source. A computational modeling approach was developed for integrating the individual models of the NES. A general approach was utilized allowing for the Integrated System Model (ISM) to be modified in order to provide simulation for other systems with similar attributes. By utilizing this approach, the ISM is capable of performing system evaluations under many different design parameter options. Additionally, the predictive capabilities of the ISM and its computational time efficiency allow for system sensitivity/uncertainty analysis and the implementation of optimization techniques.

  8. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  9. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  10. Model of the heat source of the Cerro Prieto magma-hydrothermal system, Baja California, Mexico

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elders, W.A.; Bird, D.K.; Williams, A.E.; Schiffman, P.; Cox, B.

    1982-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Earlier studies at Cerro Prieto by UCR have led to the development of a qualitative model for field flow in the geothermal system before it was drilled and perturbed by production. Current efforts are directed towards numerical modelling of heat and mass transfer in the system in this undisturbed state. A two-dimensional model assumes that the heat sources were a single basalt/gabbro intrusion which provided heat to the system as it cooled. After compiling various information on the physical properties of the reservoir, the enthalpy contained in two 1cm thick section across the reservoir orthogonal to each other was calculated. Next various shapes, sizes and depths for the intrusion as initial conditions and boundary conditions for the calculation of heat transfer were considered. A family of numerical models which so far gives the best matches to the conditions observed in the field today have in common a funnel-shaped intrusion with a top 4km wide emplaced at a depth of 5km some 30,000 to 50,000 years ago, providing heat to the geothermal system. Numerical modelling is still in progress. Although none of the models so far computed may be a perfect match for the thermal history of the reservoir, they all indicate that the intrusive heat source is young, close and large.

  11. Analyzer-based phase-contrast imaging system using a micro focus x-ray source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Wei [BME Department, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616 (United States); Majidi, Keivan; Brankov, Jovan G., E-mail: brankov@iit.edu [ECE Department, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616 (United States)

    2014-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Here we describe a new in-laboratory analyzer based phase contrast-imaging (ABI) instrument using a conventional X-ray tube source (CXS) aimed at bio-medical imaging applications. Phase contrast-imaging allows visualization of soft tissue details usually obscured in conventional X-ray imaging. The ABI system design and major features are described in detail. The key advantage of the presented system, over the few existing CXS ABI systems, is that it does not require high precision components, i.e., CXS, X-ray detector, and electro-mechanical components. To overcome a main problem introduced by these components, identified as temperature stability, the system components are kept at a constant temperature inside of three enclosures, thus minimizing the electrical and mechanical thermal drifts. This is achieved by using thermoelectric (Peltier) cooling/heating modules that are easy to control precisely. For CXS we utilized a microfocus X-ray source with tungsten (W) anode material. In addition the proposed system eliminates tungsten's multiple spectral lines by selecting monochromator crystal size appropriately therefore eliminating need for the costly mismatched, two-crystal monochromator. The system imaging was fine-tuned for tungsten K?{sub 1} line with the energy of 59.3 keV since it has been shown to be of great clinical significance by a number of researchers at synchrotron facilities. In this way a laboratory system that can be used for evaluating and quantifying tissue properties, initially explored at synchrotron facilities, would be of great interest to a larger research community. To demonstrate the imaging capability of our instrument we use a chicken thigh tissue sample.

  12. Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, N.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building Na Zhu*, Yu Lei, Pingfang Hu, Linghong Xu, Zhangning Jiang Department of Building Environment and Equipment Engineering... heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage technology could save energy and shift peak load. This paper studied the optimal design of a ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change thermal storage tank in an office...

  13. A proposed second harmonic acceleration system for the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source Rapid Cycling Synchrotron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norem, J.; Brandeberry, F.; Rauchas, A.

    1983-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) operating at Argonne National Laboratory is presently producing intensities of 2-2.5 x 10/sup 12/ protons per pulse (ppp) with the addition of a new ion source. This intensity is close to the space charge limit of the machine, estimated at about 3 x 10/sup 12/ ppp, depending somewhat on the available aperture. With the present good performance in mind, accelerator improvements are being directed at increasing beam intensities for neutron science, lowering acceleration losses to minimize activation, and gaining better control of the beam so that losses can be made to occur when and where they can be most easily controlled. On the basis of preliminary measurements, the authors are now proposing a third cavity for the RF system which would provide control of the longitudinal bunch shape during the cycle which would permit raising the effective space charge limit of the accelerator and reducing losses.

  14. System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Musick, Charles R. (Castro Valley, CA); Critchlow, Terence (Livermore, CA); Ganesh, Madhaven (San Jose, CA); Slezak, Tom (Livermore, CA); Fidelis, Krzysztof (Brentwood, CA)

    2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

  15. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  16. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  17. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  18. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  19. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  1. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  2. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  3. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  4. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  5. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  6. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  8. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  9. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  10. The Climate of the McMurdo, Antarctica, Region as Represented by One Year of Forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs a limited-area model, the Polar fifth-generation and seasonal distributions of wind direction and speed, 2-m temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation influence on the near-surface winds. Time-mean vortices occur in the lee of Ross Island, perhaps a factor

  11. High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rochau, Gary Eugene

    2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The impact associated with energy generation and utilization is immeasurable due to the immense, widespread, and myriad effects it has on the world and its inhabitants. The polar extremes are demonstrated on the one hand, by the high quality of life enjoyed by individuals with access to abundant reliable energy sources, and on the other hand by the global-scale environmental degradation attributed to the affects of energy production and use. Thus, nations strive to increase their energy generation, but are faced with the challenge of doing so with a minimal impact on the environment and in a manner that is self-reliant. Consequently, a revival of interest in nuclear energy has followed, with much focus placed on technologies for transmuting nuclear spent fuel. The performed research investigates nuclear energy systems that optimize the destruction of nuclear waste. In the context of this effort, nuclear energy system is defined as a configuration of nuclear reactors and corresponding fuel cycle components. The proposed system has unique characteristics that set it apart from other systems. Most notably the dedicated High-Energy External Source Transmuter (HEST), which is envisioned as an advanced incinerator used in combination with thermal reactors. The system is configured for examining environmentally benign fuel cycle options by focusing on minimization or elimination of high level waste inventories. Detailed high-fidelity exact-geometry models were developed for representative reactor configurations. They were used in preliminary calculations with Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtented (MCNPX) and Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code systems. The reactor models have been benchmarked against existing experimental data and design data. Simulink{reg_sign}, an extension of MATLAB{reg_sign}, is envisioned as the interface environment for constructing the nuclear energy system model by linking the individual reactor and fuel component sub-models for overall analysis of the system. It also provides control over key user input parameters and the ability to effectively consolidate vital output results for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and optimization procedures. The preliminary analysis has shown promising advanced fuel cycle scenarios that include Pressure Water Reactors Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs) and dedicated HEST waste incineration facilities. If deployed, these scenarios may substantially reduce nuclear waste inventories approaching environmentally benign nuclear energy system characteristics. Additionally, a spent fuel database of the isotopic compositions for multiple design and control parameters has been created for the VHTR-HEST input fuel streams. Computational approaches, analysis metrics, and benchmark strategies have been established for future detailed studies.

  12. Numerical Simulation of a Latent Heat Storage System of a Solar-Aided Ground Source Heat Pump 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, F.; Zheng, M.; Li, Z.; Lei, B.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this study, the rectangular phase change storage tank (PCST) linked to a solar-aided ground source heat pump (SAGSHP) system is investigated experimentally and theoretically. The container of the phase change material (PCM) is the controlling...

  13. Numerical Simulation of a Latent Heat Storage System of a Solar-Aided Ground Source Heat Pump

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, F.; Zheng, M.; Li, Z.; Lei, B.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this study, the rectangular phase change storage tank (PCST) linked to a solar-aided ground source heat pump (SAGSHP) system is investigated experimentally and theoretically. The container of the phase change material (PCM) is the controlling...

  14. Preliminary Retro-Commissioning Study on Optimal Operation for the Heat Source System of a District Heating Cooling Plant

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shingu, H.; Yoshida, H.; Wang, F.; Ono, E.

    In order to improve the energy performance of a district heating and cooling (DHC) plant, the expected performance of the plant is studied using simulations based on mathematical models. A complete heat source system model, equipped with an embedded...

  15. Photostimulated phosphor based image plate detection system for HRVUV beamline at Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haris, K; Shastri, Aparna; K., Sunanda; K., Babita; Rao, S V N Bhaskara; Ahmad, Shabbir; Tauheed, A

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A high resolution vacuum ultraviolet (HRVUV) beamline based on a 6.65 meter off-plane Eagle spectrometer is in operation at the Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source, RRCAT, Indore, India. To facilitate position sensitive detection and fast spectral recording, a new BaFBr:Eu2+ phosphor based image plate (IP) detection system interchangeable with the existing photomultiplier (PMT) scanning system has been installed on this beamline. VUV photoabsorption studies on Xe, O2, N2O and SO2 are carried out to evaluate the performance of the IP detection system. An FWHM of ~ 0.5 {\\AA} is achieved for the Xe atomic line at 1469.6 {\\AA}. Reproducibility of spectra is found to be within the experimental resolution. Compared to the PMT scanning system, the IP shows several advantages in terms of sensitivity, recording time and S/N ratio, which are highlighted in the paper. This is the first report of incorporation of an IP detection system in a VUV beamline using synchrotron radiation. Commissioning of the new detection sys...

  16. Phase loop bandwidth measurements on the advanced photon source 352 MHz rf systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Horan, D.; Nassiri, A.; Schwartz, C.

    1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Phase loop bandwidth tests were performed on the Advanced Photon Source storage ring 352-MHz rf systems. These measurements were made using the HP3563A Control Systems Analyzer, with the rf systems running at 30 kilowatts into each of the storage ring cavities, without stored beam. An electronic phase shifter was used to inject approximately 14 degrees of stimulated phase shift into the low-level rf system, which produced measureable response voltage in the feedback loops without upsetting normal rf system operation. With the PID (proportional-integral-differential) amplifier settings at the values used during accelerator operation, the measurement data revealed that the 3-dB response for the cavity sum and klystron power-phase loops is approximately 7 kHz and 45 kHz, respectively, with the cavities the primary bandwidth-limiting factor in the cavity-sum loop. Data were taken at various PID settings until the loops became unstable. Crosstalk between the two phase loops was measured.

  17. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  18. Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holliday, J R; Klein, B; Rundle, J B; Tiampo, K F

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.

  19. Effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity in beta-voltaic nuclear battery system: A preliminary result

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Basar, Khairul, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Riupassa, Robi D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Bachtiar, Reza, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Badrianto, Muldani D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id [Nuclear Physics and Biophysics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung (Indonesia)

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is known that one main problem in the application of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system is its low efficiency. The efficiency of the beta-voltaic nuclear battery system mainly depends on three aspects: source of radioactive radiation, interface between materials in the system and process of converting electron-hole pair to electric current in the semiconductor material. In this work, we show the effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system.

  20. Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. (China)

    2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

  1. A Software System for Modeling and Controlling Accelerator Physics Parameters at the Advanced Light Source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schachinger, L.C.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and Controlling Accelerator Physics Parameters at theLight Source for accelerator physics studies and accelerator

  2. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F. (Berkeley, CA); Burnett, Greg C. (Livermore, CA); Ng, Lawrence C. (Danville, CA)

    2007-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  3. System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Holzrichter, John F; Burnett, Greg C; Ng, Lawrence C

    2013-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  6. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  7. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  8. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  9. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  10. The refrigeration and cryogenic distribution system for the shortpulse x-ray source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Green, Michael A.; Corlett, John N.

    2002-10-20T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the essential elements of the cryogenic system. The cryogenic distribution system starts at the level of the linac superconducting RF cavities [1] and moves out through the cryogenic piping to the liquid helium refrigeration plant that will be used to cool the RF cavities and the undulator magnets. For this report, the cryogenic distribution system and cryogenic refrigerator includes the following elements: (1) The piping within the linac cryogenic modules will influence the heat transfer through the super-fluid helium from the outer surface of the TESLA niobium cavity and the liquid to gas interface within the horizontal header pipe where the superfluid helium boils. This piping determines the final design of the linac cryogenic module. (2) The acceptable pressure drops determine the supply and return piping dimensions. (3) The helium distribution system is determined by the need to cool down and warm up the various elements in the light source. (4) The size of the cryogenic plant is determined by the heat loads and the probable margin of error on those heat loads. Since the final heat loads are determined by the acceleration gradient in the cavities, a linac with five cryogenic modules will be compared to a linac with only four cryogenic modules. The design assumes that all cryogenic elements in the facility will be cooled using a common cryogenic plant. To minimize vibration effects on the beam lines, this plant is assumed to be located some distance from the synchrotron light beam lines. All of the cryogenic elements in the facility will be attached to the helium refrigeration system through cryogenic transfer lines. The largest single cryogenic load is the main linac, which consists of four or five cryogenic modules depending on the design gradient for the cavities in the linac section. The second largest heat load comes from the cryogenic modules that contain the transverse deflecting RF cavities. The injector linac is the third largest heat load. The seven superconducting undulator magnets in the hard x-ray production section are the smallest heat loads connected to the light source refrigeration plant. The linac and deflecting cavity sections require helium cooling at 1.9 K, 5 K and 40 K. The undulator magnets require two-phase helium cooling at 4.3 to 4.5 K.

  11. Preliminary tests of a second harmonic rf system for the intense pulsed neutron source synchrotron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norem, J.; Brandeberry, F.

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) operating at Argonne National Laboratory is presently producing intensities of 2 to 2.5 x 10/sup 12/ protons per pulse (ppp) with the addition of a new ion source. This intensity is close to the space charge limit of the machine, estimated at approx. 3 x 10/sup 12/ ppp, depending somewhat on the available aperture. Accelerator improvements are being directed at (1) increasing beam intensities for neutron science, (2) lowering acceleration losses to minimize activation, and (3) gaining better control of the beam so that losses can be made to occur when and where they can be most easily controlled. We are now proposing a third cavity for the RF system which would provide control of the longitudinal bunch shape during the cycle which would permit raising the effective space charge limit of the accelerator and reducing losses by providing more RF voltage at maximum acceleration. This paper presents an outline of the expected benefits together with recent results obtained during low energy operation with one of the two existing cavities operating at the second harmonic (2f/sub 0/).

  12. Proposed second harmonic acceleration system for the intense pulsed neutron source rapid cycling synchrotron

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Norem, J.; Brandeberry, F.; Rauchas, A.

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Intense Pulsed Neutron Source (IPNS) operating at Argonne National Laboratory is presently producing intensities of 2 to 2.5 x 10/sup 12/ protons per pulse (ppp) with the addition of a new ion source. This intensity is close to the space charge limit of the machine, estimated at approx.3 x 10/sup 12/ ppp, depending somewhat on the available aperture. With the present good performance in mind, accelerator improvements are being directed at: (1) increasing beam intensities for neutron science; (2) lowering acceleration losses to minimize activation; and (3) gaining better control of the beam so that losses can be made to occur when and where they can be most easily controlled. On the basis of preliminary measurements, we are now proposing a third cavity for the RF systems which would provide control of the longitudinal bunch shape during the cycle which would permit raising the effective space charge limit of the accelerator and reducing losses.

  13. Permanent magnet electron beam ion source/trap systems with bakeable magnets for improved operation conditions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmidt, M., E-mail: mike.schmidt@dreebit.com [DREEBIT GmbH, 01109 Dresden (Germany); Zschornack, G.; Kentsch, U.; Ritter, E. [Department of Physics, Dresden University of Technology, 01062 Dresden, Germany and Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Institute of Ion Beam Physics and Materials Research, 01328 Dresden (Germany)] [Department of Physics, Dresden University of Technology, 01062 Dresden, Germany and Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Institute of Ion Beam Physics and Materials Research, 01328 Dresden (Germany)

    2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The magnetic system of a Dresden electron beam ion source (EBIS) generating the necessary magnetic field with a new type of permanent magnet made of high energy density NdFeB-type material operable at temperatures above 100?°C has been investigated and tested. The employment of such kind of magnets provides simplified operation without the time-consuming installation and de-installation procedures of the magnets for the necessary baking of the ion source after commissioning and maintenance work. Furthermore, with the use of a new magnetization technique the geometrical filling factor of the magnetic Dresden EBIS design could be increased to a filling factor of 100% leading to an axial magnetic field strength of approximately 0.5 T exceeding the old design by 20%. Simulations using the finite element method software Field Precision and their results compared with measurements are presented as well. It could be shown that several baking cycles at temperatures higher than 100?°C did not change the magnetic properties of the setup.

  14. Upgrade of the extraction system of permanent magnet electron cyclotron resonance ion source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, M.; Peng, S. X.; Song, Z. Z.; Yuan, Z. X.; Zhou, Q. F.; Lu, P. N.; Xu, R.; Zhao, J.; Yu, J. X.; Chen, J. E.; Guo, Z. Y.; Lu, Y. R. [State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology and Institute of Heavy Ion Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Ren, H. T. [State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology and Institute of Heavy Ion Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)

    2010-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A set of new ion extraction electrodes have been designed for the permanent magnetic electron cyclotron resonance ion source at Peking University to improve beam quality and transmission. PBGUNS has been used to optimize the extraction electrodes and simulate the beam behavior at the extraction region. The experiments showed that with the new system, the beam half divergence angle can be less than 40 mrad and the normalized rms emittance is about 0.13{pi} mm mrad when the extracted current is 100 mA at 50 keV in pulse mode. The voltage of the suppression electrode has great effect on beam divergence. The effect of the microwave power and gas flow is also studied.

  15. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  16. Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen sulfide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184­191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This paper presents an examination of a simple hydrogen sulfide and natural gas-fed solid oxide fuel cell system. The possibility of utilization of hydrogen sulfide

  17. Analysis of Selection of Single or Double U-bend Pipes in a Ground Source Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is widely used because of its energy-saving and environmental-friendly characteristics. The buried pipes heat exchangers play an important role in the whole GSHP system design. However, in most cases, single...

  18. Integrated Heat Pump (IHP) System Development - Air-Source IHP Control Strategy and Specifications and Ground-Source IHP Conceptual Design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murphy, Richard W [ORNL; Rice, C Keith [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL

    2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The integrated heat pump (IHP), as one appliance, can provide space cooling, heating, ventilation, and dehumidification while maintaining comfort and meeting domestic water heating needs in near-zero-energy home (NZEH) applications. In FY 2006 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) completed development of a control strategy and system specification for an air-source IHP. The conceptual design of a ground-source IHP was also completed. Testing and analysis confirm the potential of both IHP concepts to meet NZEH energy services needs while consuming 50% less energy than a suite of equipment that meets current minimum efficiency requirements. This report is in fulfillment of an FY06 DOE Building Technologies (BT) Joule Milestone.

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  20. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  1. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  2. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  3. A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Chen

    2013-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    , and is shown to have improved performance compared with conventional persistent model. The tradeoff between communication cost and improved forecast quality is studied using realistic data sets collected from California and Colorado. n IEEE 14 bus system test...

  4. Discussion of an Optimization Scheme for the Ground Source Heat Pump System of HVAC 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mu, W.; Wang, S.; Pan, S.; Shi, Y.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    With the implementation of the global sustainable development strategy, people pay more attention to renewable energy resources such as ground source heat pumps. The technology of ground source heat pump is widely applied to heat and cold...

  5. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  6. Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Future Power Systems: The Role of Storage

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weitemeyer, Stefan; Vogt, Thomas; Agert, Carsten

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Integrating a high share of electricity from non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources in a power supply system is a challenging task. One option considered in many studies dealing with prospective power systems is the installation of storage devices to balance the fluctuations in power production. However, it is not yet clear how soon storage devices will be needed and how the integration process depends on different storage parameters. Using long-term solar and wind energy power production data series, we present a modelling approach to investigate the influence of storage size and efficiency on the pathway towards a 100% RES scenario. Applying our approach to data for Germany, we found that up to 50% of the overall electricity demand can be met by an optimum combination of wind and solar resources without both curtailment and storage devices if the remaining energy is provided by sufficiently flexible power plants. Our findings show further that the installation of small, but highly efficient storage devic...

  7. Economical Analysis of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump with Water Thermal Storage System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Z.; Xu, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, J.; Niu, L.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper is based on a chilled and heat source for the building which has a total area of 140000m2 in the suburb of Beijing. By comparing the groundwater source heat pump of water thermal storage (GHPWTS) with a conventional chilled and heat source...

  8. Economical Analysis of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump with Water Thermal Storage System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Z.; Xu, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, J.; Niu, L.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The paper is based on a chilled and heat source for the building which has a total area of 140000m2 in the suburb of Beijing. By comparing the groundwater source heat pump of water thermal storage (GHPWTS) with a conventional chilled and heat source...

  9. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  10. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  11. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  12. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  13. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  14. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  15. A pre-feasibility study to assess the potential of Open Loop Ground Source Heat to heat and cool the proposed Earth Science Systems Building

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A pre-feasibility study to assess the potential of Open Loop Ground Source Heat to heat and cool............................................................1 1.2. History of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems................................................3 1.3. Components of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems..........................................3 1.4. Types of Ground

  16. Recovery Act: Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James A Menart, Professor

    2013-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ���¢��������Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.���¢������� The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP system

  17. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menart, James A. [Wright State University

    2013-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ?Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP systems.

  18. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  19. Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murtagh, Fionn

    electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

  20. Gaussian Processes for Short-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting Joseph Bockhorst, Chris Barber

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bockhorst, Joseph

    on this task, and attention has shifted to statistical and machine learning approaches. Among the challenges of wind energy into electrical trans- mission systems. The importance of wind forecasts for wind energy throughout a power system must be nearly in balance at all times, 2) because it depends strongly on wind

  1. Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , in order to be able to absorb a large fraction of wind power in the electrical systems reliable short from refer- ence MET forecasts to the actual wind farm, wind farm power curve models, dynamical models of art wind power prediction system is outlined in Section 2. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP

  2. EVIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE SOURCES OF {sup 10}Be IN THE EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wielandt, Daniel; Krot, Alexander N.; Bizzarro, Martin [Centre for Star and Planet Formation, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen DK-1350 (Denmark); Nagashima, Kazuhide; Huss, Gary R. [Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, HI 96822 (United States); Ivanova, Marina A. [Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Beryllium-10 is a short-lived radionuclide (t{sub 1/2} = 1.4 Myr) uniquely synthesized by spallation reactions and inferred to have been present when the solar system's oldest solids (calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions, CAIs) formed. Yet, the astrophysical site of {sup 10}Be nucleosynthesis is uncertain. We report Li-Be-B isotope measurements of CAIs from CV chondrites, including CAIs that formed with the canonical {sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al ratio of {approx}5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5} (canonical CAIs) and CAIs with Fractionation and Unidentified Nuclear isotope effects (FUN-CAIs) characterized by {sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al ratios much lower than the canonical value. Our measurements demonstrate the presence of four distinct fossil {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be isochrons, lower in the FUN-CAIs than in the canonical CAIs, and variable within these classes. Given that FUN-CAI precursors escaped evaporation-recondensation prior to evaporative melting, we suggest that the {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratio recorded by FUN-CAIs represents a baseline level present in presolar material inherited from the protosolar molecular cloud, generated via enhanced trapping of galactic cosmic rays. The higher and possibly variable apparent {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratios of canonical CAIs reflect additional spallogenesis, either in the gaseous CAI-forming reservoir, or in the inclusions themselves: this indicates at least two nucleosynthetic sources of {sup 10}Be in the early solar system. The most promising locale for {sup 10}Be synthesis is close to the proto-Sun during its early mass-accreting stages, as these are thought to coincide with periods of intense particle irradiation occurring on timescales significantly shorter than the formation interval of canonical CAIs.

  3. First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aasi, J; Abbott, R; Abbott, T; Abernathy, M R; Accadia, T; Acernese, F; Ackley, K; Adams, C; Adams, T; Addesso, P; Adhikari, R X; Affeldt, C; Agathos, M; Aggarwal, N; Aguiar, O D; Ain, A; Ajith, P; Alemic, A; Allen, B; Allocca, A; Amariutei, D; Andersen, M; Anderson, R; Anderson, S B; Anderson, W G; Arai, K; Araya, M C; Arceneaux, C; Areeda, J; Aston, S M; Astone, P; Aufmuth, P; Aulbert, C; Austin, L; Aylott, B E; Babak, S; Baker, P T; Ballardin, G; Ballmer, S W; Barayoga, J C; Barbet, M; Barish, B C; Barker, D; Barone, F; Barr, B; Barsotti, L; Barsuglia, M; Barton, M A; Bartos, I; Bassiri, R; Basti, A; Batch, J C; Bauchrowitz, J; Bauer, Th S; Behnke, B; Bejger, M; Beker, M G; Belczynski, C; Bell, A S; Bell, C; Bergmann, G; Bersanetti, D; Bertolini, A; Betzwieser, J; Beyersdorf, P T; Bilenko, I A; Billingsley, G; Birch, J; Biscans, S; Bitossi, M; Bizouard, M A; Black, E; Blackburn, J K; Blackburn, L; Blair, D; Bloemen, S; Blom, M; Bock, O; Bodiya, T P; Boer, M; Bogaert, G; Bogan, C; Bond, C; Bondu, F; Bonelli, L; Bonnand, R; Bork, R; Born, M; Boschi, V; Bose, Sukanta; Bosi, L; Bradaschia, C; Brady, P R; Braginsky, V B; Branchesi, M; Brau, J E; Briant, T; Bridges, D O; Brillet, A; Brinkmann, M; Brisson, V; Brooks, A F; Brown, D A; Brown, D D; Brückner, F; Buchman, S; Bulik, T; Bulten, H J; Buonanno, A; Burman, R; Buskulic, D; Buy, C; Cadonati, L; Cagnoli, G; Bustillo, J Calderón; Calloni, E; Camp, J B; Campsie, P; Cannon, K C; Canuel, B; Cao, J; Capano, C D; Carbognani, F; Carbone, L; Caride, S; Castiglia, A; Caudill, S; Cavaglià, M; Cavalier, F; Cavalieri, R; Celerier, C; Cella, G; Cepeda, C; Cesarini, E; Chakraborty, R; Chalermsongsak, T; Chamberlin, S J; Chao, S; Charlton, P; Chassande-Mottin, E; Chen, X; Chen, Y; Chincarini, A; Chiummo, A; Cho, H S; Chow, J; Christensen, N; Chu, Q; Chua, S S Y; Chung, S; Ciani, G; Clara, F; Clark, J A; Cleva, F; Coccia, E; Cohadon, P -F; Colla, A; Collette, C; Colombini, M; Cominsky, L; Constancio, M; Conte, A; Cook, D; Corbitt, T R; Cordier, M; Cornish, N; Corpuz, A; Corsi, A; Costa, C A; Coughlin, M W; Coughlin, S; Coulon, J -P; Countryman, S; Couvares, P; Coward, D M; Cowart, M; Coyne, D C; Coyne, R; Craig, K; Creighton, J D E; Creighton, T D; Crowder, S G; Cumming, A; Cunningham, L; Cuoco, E; Dahl, K; Canton, T Dal; Damjanic, M; Danilishin, S L; D'Antonio, S; Danzmann, K; Dattilo, V; Daveloza, H; Davier, M; Davies, G S; Daw, E J; Day, R; Dayanga, T; Debreczeni, G; Degallaix, J; Deléglise, S; Del Pozzo, W; Denker, T; Dent, T; Dereli, H; Dergachev, V; De Rosa, R; DeRosa, R T; DeSalvo, R; Dhurandhar, S; Díaz, M; Di Fiore, L; Di Lieto, A; Di Palma, I; Di Virgilio, A; Donath, A; Donovan, F; Dooley, K L; Doravari, S; Dossa, S; Douglas, R; Downes, T P; Drago, M; Drever, R W P; Driggers, J C; Du, Z; Dwyer, S; Eberle, T; Edo, T; Edwards, M; Effler, A; Eggenstein, H; Ehrens, P; Eichholz, J; Eikenberry, S S; Endr\\Hoczi, G; Essick, R; Etzel, T; Evans, M; Evans, T; Factourovich, M; Fafone, V; Fairhurst, S; Fang, Q; Farinon, S; Farr, B; Farr, W M; Favata, M; Fehrmann, H; Fejer, M M; Feldbaum, D; Feroz, F; Ferrante, I; Ferrini, F; Fidecaro, F; Finn, L S; Fiori, I; Fisher, R P; Flaminio, R; Fournier, J -D; Franco, S; Frasca, S; Frasconi, F; Frede, M; Frei, Z; Freise, A; Frey, R; Fricke, T T; Fritschel, P; Frolov, V V; Fulda, P; Fyffe, M; Gair, J; Gammaitoni, L; Gaonkar, S; Garufi, F; Gehrels, N; Gemme, G; Genin, E; Gennai, A; Ghosh, S; Giaime, J A; Giardina, K D; Giazotto, A; Gill, C; Gleason, J; Goetz, E; Goetz, R; Gondan, L; González, G; Gordon, N; Gorodetsky, M L; Gossan, S; Goßler, S; Gouaty, R; Gräf, C; Graff, P B; Granata, M; Grant, A; Gras, S; Gray, C; Greenhalgh, R J S; Gretarsson, A M; Groot, P; Grote, H; Grover, K; Grunewald, S; Guidi, G M; Guido, C; Gushwa, K; Gustafson, E K; Gustafson, R; Hammer, D; Hammond, G; Hanke, M; Hanks, J; Hanna, C; Hanson, J; Harms, J; Harry, G M; Harry, I W; Harstad, E D; Hart, M; Hartman, M T; Haster, C -J; Haughian, K; Heidmann, A; Heintze, M; Heitmann, H; Hello, P; Hemming, G; Hendry, M; Heng, I S; Heptonstall, A W; Heurs, M; Hewitson, M; Hild, S; Hoak, D; Hodge, K A; Holt, K; Hooper, S; Hopkins, P; Hosken, D J; Hough, J; Howell, E J; Hu, Y; Huerta, E; Hughey, B; Husa, S; Huttner, S H; Huynh, M; Huynh-Dinh, T; Ingram, D R; Inta, R; Isogai, T; Ivanov, A; Iyer, B R; Izumi, K; Jacobson, M; James, E; Jang, H; Jaranowski, P; Ji, Y; Jiménez-Forteza, F; Johnson, W W; Jones, D I; Jones, R; Jonker, R J G; Ju, L; K, Haris; Kalmus, P; Kalogera, V; Kandhasamy, S; Kang, G; Kanner, J B; Karlen, J; Kasprzack, M; Katsavounidis, E; Katzman, W; Kaufer, H; Kawabe, K; Kawazoe, F; Kéfélian, F; Keiser, G M; Keitel, D; Kelley, D B; Kells, W; Khalaidovski, A; Khalili, F Y; Khazanov, E A; Kim, C; Kim, K; Kim, N; Kim, N G; Kim, Y -M; King, E J; King, P J; Kinzel, D L; Kissel, J S; Klimenko, S; Kline, J; Koehlenbeck, S; Kokeyama, K; Kondrashov, V; Koranda, S

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for ci...

  4. First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The LIGO Scientific Collaboration; the Virgo Collaboration; J. Aasi; B. P. Abbott; R. Abbott; T. Abbott; M. R. Abernathy; T. Accadia; F. Acernese; K. Ackley; C. Adams; T. Adams; P. Addesso; R. X. Adhikari; C. Affeldt; M. Agathos; N. Aggarwal; O. D. Aguiar; A. Ain; P. Ajith; A. Alemic; B. Allen; A. Allocca; D. Amariutei; M. Andersen; R. Anderson; S. B. Anderson; W. G. Anderson; K. Arai; M. C. Araya; C. Arceneaux; J. Areeda; S. M. Aston; P. Astone; P. Aufmuth; C. Aulbert; L. Austin; B. E. Aylott; S. Babak; P. T. Baker; G. Ballardin; S. W. Ballmer; J. C. Barayoga; M. Barbet; B. C. Barish; D. Barker; F. Barone; B. Barr; L. Barsotti; M. Barsuglia; M. A. Barton; I. Bartos; R. Bassiri; A. Basti; J. C. Batch; J. Bauchrowitz; Th. S. Bauer; B. Behnke; M. Bejger; M. G. Beker; C. Belczynski; A. S. Bell; C. Bell; G. Bergmann; D. Bersanetti; A. Bertolini; J. Betzwieser; P. T. Beyersdorf; I. A. Bilenko; G. Billingsley; J. Birch; S. Biscans; M. Bitossi; M. A. Bizouard; E. Black; J. K. Blackburn; L. Blackburn; D. Blair; S. Bloemen; M. Blom; O. Bock; T. P. Bodiya; M. Boer; G. Bogaert; C. Bogan; C. Bond; F. Bondu; L. Bonelli; R. Bonnand; R. Bork; M. Born; V. Boschi; Sukanta Bose; L. Bosi; C. Bradaschia; P. R. Brady; V. B. Braginsky; M. Branchesi; J. E. Brau; T. Briant; D. O. Bridges; A. Brillet; M. Brinkmann; V. Brisson; A. F. Brooks; D. A. Brown; D. D. Brown; F. Brückner; S. Buchman; T. Bulik; H. J. Bulten; A. Buonanno; R. Burman; D. Buskulic; C. Buy; L. Cadonati; G. Cagnoli; J. Calderón Bustillo; E. Calloni; J. B. Camp; P. Campsie; K. C. Cannon; B. Canuel; J. Cao; C. D. Capano; F. Carbognani; L. Carbone; S. Caride; A. Castiglia; S. Caudill; M. Cavaglià; F. Cavalier; R. Cavalieri; C. Celerier; G. Cella; C. Cepeda; E. Cesarini; R. Chakraborty; T. Chalermsongsak; S. J. Chamberlin; S. Chao; P. Charlton; E. Chassande-Mottin; X. Chen; Y. Chen; A. Chincarini; A. Chiummo; H. S. Cho; J. Chow; N. Christensen; Q. Chu; S. S. Y. Chua; S. Chung; G. Ciani; F. Clara; J. A. Clark; F. Cleva; E. Coccia; P. -F. Cohadon; A. Colla; C. Collette; M. Colombini; L. Cominsky; M. Constancio Jr.; A. Conte; D. Cook; T. R. Corbitt; M. Cordier; N. Cornish; A. Corpuz; A. Corsi; C. A. Costa; M. W. Coughlin; S. Coughlin; J. -P. Coulon; S. Countryman; P. Couvares; D. M. Coward; M. Cowart; D. C. Coyne; R. Coyne; K. Craig; J. D. E. Creighton; T. D. Creighton; S. G. Crowder; A. Cumming; L. Cunningham; E. Cuoco; K. Dahl; T. Dal Canton; M. Damjanic; S. L. Danilishin; S. D'Antonio; K. Danzmann; V. Dattilo; H. Daveloza; M. Davier; G. S. Davies; E. J. Daw; R. Day; T. Dayanga; G. Debreczeni; J. Degallaix; S. Deléglise; W. Del Pozzo; T. Denker; T. Dent; H. Dereli; V. Dergachev; R. De Rosa; R. T. DeRosa; R. DeSalvo; S. Dhurandhar; M. Díaz; L. Di Fiore; A. Di Lieto; I. Di Palma; A. Di Virgilio; A. Donath; F. Donovan; K. L. Dooley; S. Doravari; S. Dossa; R. Douglas; T. P. Downes; M. Drago; R. W. P. Drever; J. C. Driggers; Z. Du; S. Dwyer; T. Eberle; T. Edo; M. Edwards; A. Effler; H. Eggenstein; P. Ehrens; J. Eichholz; S. S. Eikenberry; G. Endr?czi; R. Essick; T. Etzel; M. Evans; T. Evans; M. Factourovich; V. Fafone; S. Fairhurst; Q. Fang; S. Farinon; B. Farr; W. M. Farr; M. Favata; H. Fehrmann; M. M. Fejer; D. Feldbaum; F. Feroz; I. Ferrante; F. Ferrini; F. Fidecaro; L. S. Finn; I. Fiori; R. P. Fisher; R. Flaminio; J. -D. Fournier; S. Franco; S. Frasca; F. Frasconi; M. Frede; Z. Frei; A. Freise; R. Frey; T. T. Fricke; P. Fritschel; V. V. Frolov; P. Fulda; M. Fyffe; J. Gair; L. Gammaitoni; S. Gaonkar; F. Garufi; N. Gehrels; G. Gemme; E. Genin; A. Gennai; S. Ghosh; J. A. Giaime; K. D. Giardina; A. Giazotto; C. Gill; J. Gleason; E. Goetz; R. Goetz; L. Gondan; G. González; N. Gordon; M. L. Gorodetsky; S. Gossan; S. Goßler; R. Gouaty; C. Gräf; P. B. Graff; M. Granata; A. Grant; S. Gras; C. Gray; R. J. S. Greenhalgh; A. M. Gretarsson; P. Groot; H. Grote; K. Grover; S. Grunewald; G. M. Guidi; C. Guido; K. Gushwa; E. K. Gustafson; R. Gustafson; D. Hammer; G. Hammond; M. Hanke; J. Hanks; C. Hanna; J. Hanson; J. Harms; G. M. Harry; I. W. Harry; E. D. Harstad; M. Hart; M. T. Hartman; C. -J. Haster; K. Haughian; A. Heidmann; M. Heintze; H. Heitmann; P. Hello; G. Hemming; M. Hendry; I. S. Heng; A. W. Heptonstall; M. Heurs; M. Hewitson; S. Hild; D. Hoak; K. A. Hodge; K. Holt; S. Hooper; P. Hopkins; D. J. Hosken; J. Hough; E. J. Howell; Y. Hu; E. Huerta; B. Hughey; S. Husa; S. H. Huttner; M. Huynh; T. Huynh-Dinh; D. R. Ingram; R. Inta; T. Isogai; A. Ivanov; B. R. Iyer; K. Izumi; M. Jacobson; E. James; H. Jang; P. Jaranowski; Y. Ji; F. Jiménez-Forteza; W. W. Johnson; D. I. Jones; R. Jones; R. J. G. Jonker; L. Ju; Haris K; P. Kalmus; V. Kalogera; S. Kandhasamy; G. Kang; J. B. Kanner; J. Karlen; M. Kasprzack; E. Katsavounidis; W. Katzman; H. Kaufer; K. Kawabe; F. Kawazoe; F. Kéfélian; G. M. Keiser; D. Keitel; D. B. Kelley; W. Kells; A. Khalaidovski

    2014-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for circular binary orbits, the upper limits obtained remain valid for orbital eccentricities as large as 0.9. In addition, upper limits are placed on continuous gravitational wave emission from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1 between 20 Hz and 57.25 Hz.

  5. Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objective: Create a new modeling decision? tool that will enable ground source heat pump (GSHP) designers and customers to make better design and purchasing decisions.

  6. Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

  7. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds statistical load models for various service areas (load pockets), estimates weather-normalized loads

  8. Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting through Visualization of Spatial Diffusion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brock, David

    Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting. Schuster, Stuart J. Allen, and David L. Brock Company Contact Several companies are interested in this area to implement an operational system for improving new product forecasting in practice. Is · Innovative thinking

  9. Design of interferometer system for Keda Torus eXperiment using terahertz solid-state diode sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xie, Jinlin, E-mail: jlxie@ustc.edu.cn; Wang, Haibo; Li, Hong; Lan, Tao; Liu, Adi; Liu, Wandong; Yu, Changxuan [School of Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Ding, Weixing [School of Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); University of California-Los Angeles, P. O. Box 957099, Los Angeles, California 90095-7099 (United States)

    2014-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A solid-state source based terahertz (THz) interferometer diagnostic system has been designed and characterized for the Keda Torus eXperiment (KTX). The THz interferometer utilizes the planar diodes based frequency multiplier (X48) to provide the probing beam at fixed frequency 0.650 THz, and local oscillator is provided by an independent solid-state diode source with tunable frequency (0.650 THz +/? 10 MHz). Both solid-state sources have approximately 1 mW power. The planar-diode mixers optimized for high sensitivity, ?750 mV/mW, are used in the heterodyne detection system, which permits multichannel interferometer on KTX with a low phase noise. A sensitivity of {sub min} = 4.5 × 10{sup 16} m{sup ?2} and a temporal resolution of 0.2 ?s have been achieved during the initial bench test.

  10. The Use of Aluminum Process Reject Heat as the Source of Energy for a District Heating System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCabe, J.; Olszewski, M.

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Rocket Research Company (RRC) is investigating the use of industrial process reject heat as a source of energy for large scale district heating. The District heating System is a network of closed-loop hot water pipes that recover energy from...

  11. rf power system for thrust measurements of a helicon plasma source Alexander W. Kieckhafer and Mitchell L. R. Walker

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walker, Mitchell

    rf power system for thrust measurements of a helicon plasma source Alexander W. Kieckhafer measurement stand and showed that rf power has no statistically significant contribution to the thrust stand now, a true thrust diagnostic that can measure thrust of a rf device does not exist. A helicon plasma

  12. Modeling of Standing Column Wells in Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Zheng Deng O'Neill, Ph.D., P.E.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modeling of Standing Column Wells in Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Zheng Deng O'Neill, Ph.D., P Montfort University, Leicester, United Kingdom 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, ground source heat pump-surface environment: · Ground-coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems (Closed-loop) · Surface water heat pump (SWHP) systems

  13. OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY SPALLATION NEUTRON SOURCE ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS AVAILABILITY AND IMPROVEMENTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cutler, Roy I [ORNL; Peplov, Vladimir V [ORNL; Wezensky, Mark W [ORNL; Norris, Kevin Paul [ORNL; Barnett, William E [ORNL; Hicks, Jim [ORNL; Weaver, Joey T [ORNL; Moss, John [ORNL; Rust, Kenneth R [ORNL; Mize, Jeffery J [ORNL; Anderson, David E [ORNL

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    SNS electrical systems have been operational for 4 years. System availability statistics and improvements are presented for AC electrical systems, DC and pulsed power supplies and klystron modulators.

  14. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  15. Using Niched Co-Evolution Strategies to Address Non-Uniqueness in Characterizing Sources of Contamination in a Water Distribution System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Drake, Kristen Leigh

    2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

    USING NICHED CO-EVOLUTION STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS NON- UNIQUENESS IN CHARACTERIZING SOURCES OF CONTAMINATION IN A WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM A Thesis by KRISTEN LEIGH DRAKE Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A...-Uniqueness in Characterizing Sources of Contamination in a Water Distribution System Copyright 2011 Kristen Leigh Drake USING NICHED CO-EVOLUTION STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS NON- UNIQUENESS IN CHARACTERIZING SOURCES OF CONTAMINATION IN A WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM A...

  16. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  17. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  18. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  20. Getting ahead in sourcing through benchmarking and system dynamic analysis : an aerospace industry perspective

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chang, Yue (Yue Cathy)

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sourcing and purchasing have received renewed attention recently as many supply chains challenge themselves to meet cost reduction goals. These challenges are especially apparent in the high-mix, low volume, and often ...

  1. Integration of renewable energy sources: reliability-constrained power system planning and operations using computational intelligence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Lingfeng

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Renewable sources of energy such as wind turbine generators and solar panels have attracted much attention because they are environmentally friendly, do not consume fossil fuels, and can enhance a nation’s energy security. As a result, recently more...

  2. Statistical method for identification of sources of electromechanical oscillations in power systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McNabb, Patrick James

    2011-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of real-time continuous dynamics monitoring often indicates dynamic behaviour that was not anticipated by model-based studies. In such cases it can be difficult to locate the sources of problems using conventional ...

  3. Life cycle assessment of UK pig production systems: the impact of dietary protein source 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stephen, Katie Louise

    2012-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was developed to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing 1 kg pig live weight. A comparison was made between dietary protein sources, i.e. imported soybean meal with the UK protein ...

  4. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  5. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  6. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  7. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  8. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  9. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  10. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  11. Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. The current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.

  12. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  13. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  15. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  16. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  17. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  18. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  20. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  1. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  2. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  3. Green power grids: how energy from renewable sources affects network and markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mureddu, Mario; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources, fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and introducing new criticalities that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations causing an increased request of conventional energy sources oriented to balance energy requests on short notices. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources and to their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies among the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations on the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players behavior. Our model is a data-d...

  4. NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used to protect hardware operating in high temperature environments, such as combustor liners and gas turbine

  5. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  6. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  7. Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

  8. Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

    High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information...

  9. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  10. Luminescent light source for laser pumping and laser system containing same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hamil, Roy A. (Tijeras, NM); Ashley, Carol S. (Albuquerque, NM); Brinker, C. Jeffrey (Albuquerque, NM); Reed, Scott (Albuquerque, NM); Walko, Robert J. (Albuquerque, NM)

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The invention relates to a pumping lamp for use with lasers comprising a porous substrate loaded with a component capable of emitting light upon interaction of the component with exciting radiation and a source of exciting radiation. Preferably, the pumping lamp comprises a source of exciting radiation, such as an electron beam, and an aerogel or xerogel substrate loaded with a component capable of interacting with the exciting radiation, e.g., a phosphor, to produce light, e.g., visible light, of a suitable band width and of a sufficient intensity to generate a laser beam from a laser material.

  11. Fiberoptic Fabry-Perot engine pressure sensor system using a continuous wave laser source 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Sun

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A fiber optic Fabry-Perot engine pressure sensor using a continuous wave laser source is implemented and tested. The operating point of the Fabrv-Perot sensor is locked to the quadrature point by electronic feedback control of laser temperature...

  12. Analysis of Energy and Soft Dirt in an Urban Untreated Sewage Source Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When using urban untreated sewage as a cool and heat source of heat pump, it is unavoidable to form soft dirt. Based on the method of exergy, an analysis is given of the impact the dirt growth of a tube-shell sewage heat exchanger will have...

  13. Survey of the information system in Nepal relating to new and renewable sources of energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report explores the role of information in Nepal in supporting energy development and use. Separate chapters are devoted to: Characteristics and activities of energy organizations and their staff; energy information needs of users; information sources used; and information dissemination and exchange.

  14. Analysis of Energy and Soft Dirt in an Urban Untreated Sewage Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When using urban untreated sewage as a cool and heat source of heat pump, it is unavoidable to form soft dirt. Based on the method of exergy, an analysis is given of the impact the dirt growth of a tube-shell sewage heat exchanger will have...

  15. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  16. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  17. Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Najmabadi, Farrokh

    Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography 2009; published online 10 December 2009 A CO2 laser system with flexible parameters was developed 1010 W/cm2 . Utilizing this CO2 MOPA laser system, high conversion efficiency from laser to in-band 2

  18. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  19. Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lippmann, M.J.; Antunez, E.

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to remain competitive, it is necessary to stay informed and use the most advanced technologies available. Recent developments in communication, like the Internet and the World Wide Web, enormously facilitate worldwide data and technology transfer. A compilation of the most important sources of data on renewable energies, especially geothermal, as well as lists of relevant technology transfer programs are presented. Information on how to gain access to, and learn more about them, is also given.

  20. Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lippmann, Marcelo J.; Antunez, Emilio u.

    1996-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to remain competitive it is necessary to stay informed and use the most advanced technologies available. Recent developments in communication, like the Internet and the World Wide Web, enormously facilitate worldwide data and technology transfer. A compilation of the most important sources of data on renewable energies, especially geothermal, as well as lists of relevant technology transfer programs are presented. Information on how to gain access to, and learn more about them is also given.

  1. Thirty-year solid waste generation forecast for facilities at SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The information supplied by this 30-year solid waste forecast has been compiled as a source document to the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (WMEIS). The WMEIS will help to select a sitewide strategic approach to managing present and future Savannah River Site (SRS) waste generated from ongoing operations, environmental restoration (ER) activities, transition from nuclear production to other missions, and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) programs. The EIS will support project-level decisions on the operation of specific treatment, storage, and disposal facilities within the near term (10 years or less). In addition, the EIS will provide a baseline for analysis of future waste management activities and a basis for the evaluation of the specific waste management alternatives. This 30-year solid waste forecast will be used as the initial basis for the EIS decision-making process. The Site generates and manages many types and categories of waste. With a few exceptions, waste types are divided into two broad groups-high-level waste and solid waste. High-level waste consists primarily of liquid radioactive waste, which is addressed in a separate forecast and is not discussed further in this document. The waste types discussed in this solid waste forecast are sanitary waste, hazardous waste, low-level mixed waste, low-level radioactive waste, and transuranic waste. As activities at SRS change from primarily production to primarily decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration, the volume of each waste s being managed will change significantly. This report acknowledges the changes in Site Missions when developing the 30-year solid waste forecast.

  2. Commissioning of a higher harmonic RF system for the Advanced Light Source

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Byrd, John M.; De Santis, Stefano; Georgsson, Mattias; Stover, G.; Fox, John D.; Teytelman, Dmitry

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commissioning of a higher harmonic RF system for theAbstract We report on the commissioning of a higher harmonicpresents the results of commissioning of the ALS harmonic

  3. DIRECT: A System for Mining Data Value Conversion Rules from Disparate Data Sources

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fan, Weiguo

    2003-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The successful integration of data from autonomous and heterogeneous systems calls for the resolution of semantic conflicts that may be present. Such conflicts are often ...

  4. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  5. Sensitivity calibration of an imaging extreme ultraviolet spectrometer-detector system for determining the efficiency of broadband extreme ultraviolet sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuchs, S.; Roedel, C.; Bierbach, J.; Paz, A. E.; Foerster, E.; Paulus, G. G. [Institute of Optics und Quantum Electronics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Helmholtz-Institute Jena (Germany); Krebs, M. [Institute of Applied Physics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Haedrich, S.; Limpert, J. [Helmholtz-Institute Jena (Germany); Institute of Applied Physics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Kuschel, S.; Wuensche, M.; Hilbert, V.; Zastrau, U. [Institute of Optics und Quantum Electronics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany)

    2013-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    We report on the absolute sensitivity calibration of an extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer system that is frequently employed to study emission from short-pulse laser experiments. The XUV spectrometer, consisting of a toroidal mirror and a transmission grating, was characterized at a synchrotron source in respect of the ratio of the detected to the incident photon flux at photon energies ranging from 15.5 eV to 99 eV. The absolute calibration allows the determination of the XUV photon number emitted by laser-based XUV sources, e.g., high-harmonic generation from plasma surfaces or in gaseous media. We have demonstrated high-harmonic generation in gases and plasma surfaces providing 2.3 {mu}W and {mu}J per harmonic using the respective generation mechanisms.

  6. System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.

  7. Interaction of plasmas in laser ion source with double laser system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fuwa, Y., E-mail: yasuhiro.fuwa@riken.jp [Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Ikeda, S. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Tokyo (Japan); Kumaki, M. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Tokyo (Japan); Sekine, M. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Department of Nuclear Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro, Tokyo (Japan); Cinquegrani, D. [Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States)] [Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States); Romanelli, M. [School of Applied and Engineering Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States)] [School of Applied and Engineering Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States); Kanesue, T.; Okamura, M. [Collider-Accelerator Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States)] [Collider-Accelerator Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States); Iwashita, Y. [Institute for Chemical Research, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto (Japan)] [Institute for Chemical Research, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto (Japan)

    2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Multiple laser shots could be used to elongate an ion beam pulse width or to intensify beam current from laser ion sources. In order to confirm the feasibility of the multiple shot scheme, we investigated the properties of plasmas produced by double laser shots. We found that when the interval of the laser shots is shorter than 10 ?s, the ion current profile had a prominent peak, which is not observed in single laser experiments. The height of this peak was up to five times larger than that of single laser experiment.

  8. Analysis and Implementation of an Orientation-Aware Source Localization System with Smart Devices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tunon Coronado, Daniel Antonio

    2014-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

    to thank the rest of my committee members, and the faculty and staff of the Department of Electrical Engineering at Texas A&M University. I must recognize the support of the Panamanian Government through the ”Profes- sional Excellence Scholarship Program... the Android API and the relative orientation with respect to the source ?, the proper argument to Ga(·). . . . . . . . . . 23 4.1 This plot shows the antenna gain (dBm) as a function of azimuth angle for two smartphone models (E?-polarization, ? = 90?, 0? < ?...

  9. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOriginEducationVideo »UsageSecretary ofSmallConfidential,2 Solar BackgroundWakePowersSystems

  10. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  11. Development of a radio frequency ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for neutral beam injection system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Choe, Kyumin; Jung, Bongki [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)] [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Kyoung-Jae, E-mail: jkjlsh1@snu.ac.kr [Center for Advance Research in Fusion Reactor Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)] [Center for Advance Research in Fusion Reactor Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Hwang, Y. S. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of) [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Center for Advance Research in Fusion Reactor Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Despite of high plasma density, helicon plasma has not yet been applied to a large area ion source such as a driver for neutral beam injection (NBI) system due to intrinsically poor plasma uniformity in the discharge region. In this study, a radio-frequency (RF) ion source with multi-helicon plasma injectors for high plasma density with good uniformity has been designed and constructed for the NBI system of Versatile Experiment Spherical Torus at Seoul National University. The ion source consists of a rectangular plasma expansion chamber (120 × 120 × 120 mm{sup 3}), four helicon plasma injectors with annular permanent magnets and RF power system. Main feature of the source is downstream plasma confinement in the cusp magnetic field configuration which is generated by arranging polarities of permanent magnets in the helicon plasma injectors. In this paper, detailed design of the multi-helicon plasma injector and plasma characteristics of the ion source are presented.

  12. The Application of Frequency-Conversion Technology in Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Reconstruction 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, X.; Song, S.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Deep well pump power is relatively ubiquitous in the groundwater heat pump air-conditioning system in some hotels in Hunan, and the heat pump usually meets the change of the load by throttling. Therefore, frequency conversion technology is proposed...

  13. The Application of Frequency-Conversion Technology in Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Reconstruction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dai, X.; Song, S.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Deep well pump power is relatively ubiquitous in the groundwater heat pump air-conditioning system in some hotels in Hunan, and the heat pump usually meets the change of the load by throttling. Therefore, frequency conversion technology is proposed...

  14. Technical Feasibility Study for Deployment of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard -- Kittery, Maine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hillesheim, M.; Mosey, G.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, in accordance with the RE-Powering America's Lands initiative, engaged the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct feasibility studies to assess the viability of developing renewable energy generating facilities on contaminated sites. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY) is a United States Navy facility located on a series of conjoined islands in the Piscataqua River between Kittery, ME and Portsmouth, NH. EPA engaged NREL to conduct a study to determine technical feasibility of deploying ground-source heat pump systems to help PNSY achieve energy reduction goals.

  15. Source and Extraction for Simultaneous Four-hall Beam Delivery System at CEBAF

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kazimi, Reza; Wang, Haipeng; Spata, Mike F.; Hansknecht, John C.

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new design for simultaneous delivery of the electron beam to all four 12 GeV CEBAF experimental halls* requires a new 750 MHz RF separator system in the 5th pass extraction region, a 250 MHz repetition rate for its beams, and addition of a fourth laser at the photo-cathode gun. The proposed system works in tandem with the existing 500 MHz RF separators and beam repetition rate on the lower passes. The new 5th pass RF separators will have the same basic design but modified to run at 750 MHz. The change to the beam repetition rate will be at the photo-cathode gun through an innovative upgrade of the seed laser driver system using electro-optic modulators. The new laser system also allows addition of the fourth laser. The new RF separators, the new laser system and other hardware changes required to implement the Four-Hall operation delivery system will be discussed in this paper.

  16. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  17. PARAMETRIC STUDY OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM FOR HOT AND HUMID CLMATE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U-tube sizes and varied thermal conductivity with different grout materials are studied based on the benchmark residential building in Hot-humid Pensacola, Florida. In this study, the benchmark building is metered and the data is used to validate the simulation model. And a list of comparative simulation cases with varied parameter value are simulated to study the importance of pipe size and grout to the ground source heat pump energy consumption. The simulation software TRNSYS [1] is employed to fulfill this task. The results show the preliminary energy saving based on varied parameters. Future work needs to be conducted for the cost analysis, include the installation cost from contractor and materials cost.

  18. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  19. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  20. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  1. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  2. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  3. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  4. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  5. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  6. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  7. 2013 IREP Symposium-Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control -IX (IREP), August 25-30, 2013, Rethymnon, Greece Effects of Various Uncertainty Sources on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liberzon, Daniel

    , Rethymnon, Greece Effects of Various Uncertainty Sources on Automatic Generation Control Systems D is the automatic generation control (AGC), which is responsible for maintaining the nominal system frequency2013 IREP Symposium-Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control -IX (IREP), August 25-30, 2013

  8. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using a low power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W; Habbersett, Robert C

    2013-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  9. System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using low-power laser source

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Graves, Steven W.; Habbersett, Robert C.

    2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

  10. Creating an EPICS Based Test Stand Development System for a BPM Digitizer of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2011-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is required to deliver a high quality electron beam for producing coherent X-rays. As a result, high resolution beam position monitoring is required. The Beam Position Monitor (BPM) digitizer acquires analog signals from the beam line and digitizes them to obtain beam position data. Although Matlab is currently being used to test the BPM digitizer?s functions and capability, the Controls Department at SLAC prefers to use Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS). This paper discusses the transition of providing similar as well as enhanced functionalities, than those offered by Matlab, to test the digitizer. Altogether, the improved test stand development system can perform mathematical and statistical calculations with the waveform signals acquired from the digitizer and compute the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of the signals. Finally, logging of meaningful data into files has been added.

  11. UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

  12. Rules and Regulations Pertaining to a User Fee System for Point Source Dischargers that Discharge Pollutants into the Waters of the State (Rhode Island)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    These regulations establish a user fee system for point source dischargers that discharge pollutants into the surface waters of the State. The funds from such fees are used by the Department of...

  13. Optimal Well-Group Distribution of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is critical to determine how the well group arranges for application of the GWSHP system. Based on the fact that water movement is the most important factor influencing heat transfer in an aquifer, this paper presents a two-step analysis method...

  14. The Well-Group Distribution of Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Optimized Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is the key question that how does the well group arrange for application of GWSHP system. Based on the fact that the water movement is the important factor of heat transfer on aquifer, this paper presents two steps analysis method and analyze...

  15. Optimal Well-Group Distribution of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is critical to determine how the well group arranges for application of the GWSHP system. Based on the fact that water movement is the most important factor influencing heat transfer in an aquifer, this paper presents a two-step analysis method...

  16. The Well-Group Distribution of Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Optimized Research 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is the key question that how does the well group arrange for application of GWSHP system. Based on the fact that the water movement is the important factor of heat transfer on aquifer, this paper presents two steps analysis method and analyze...

  17. Advanced Soldier Thermoelectric Power System for Power Generation from Battlefield Heat Sources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendricks, Terry J.; Hogan, Tim; Case, Eldon D.; Cauchy, Charles J.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. military uses large amounts of fuel during deployments and battlefield operations. This project sought to develop a lightweight, small form-factor, soldier-portable advanced thermoelectric (TE) system prototype to recover and convert waste heat from various deployed military equipment (i.e., diesel generators/engines, incinerators, vehicles, and potentially mobile kitchens), with the ultimate purpose of producing power for soldier battery charging, advanced capacitor charging, and other battlefield power applications. The technical approach employed microchannel technology, a unique “power panel” approach to heat exchange/TE system integration, and newly-characterized LAST (lead-antimony-silver-telluride) and LASTT (lead-antimony-silver-tin-telluride) TE materials segmented with bismuth telluride TE materials in designing a segmented-element TE power module and system. This project researched never-before-addressed system integration challenges (thermal expansion, thermal diffusion, electrical interconnection, thermal and electrical interfaces) of designing thin “power panels” consisting of alternating layers of thin, microchannel heat exchangers (hot and cold) sandwiching thin, segmented-element TE power generators. The TE properties, structurally properties, and thermal fatigue behavior of LAST and LASTT materials were developed and characterized such that the first segmented-element TE modules using LAST / LASTT materials were fabricated and tested at hot-side temperatures = 400 °C and cold-side temperatures = 40 °C. LAST / LASTT materials were successfully segmented with bismuth telluride and electrically interconnected with diffusion barrier materials and copper strapping within the module electrical circuit. A TE system design was developed to produce 1.5-1.6 kW of electrical energy using these new TE modules from the exhaust waste heat of 60-kW Tactical Quiet Generators as demonstration vehicles.

  18. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  19. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  20. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  1. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  2. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  3. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  4. Characterizing the marginal basis source energy and emissions associated with comfort cooling systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reindl, D.T.; Knebel, D.E.; Gansler, R.A. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A ten-story commercial office building located in Fort Worth, Texas, was used as a prototype to investigate the environmental impact associated with applying various electric and gas technologies for providing ventilation and comfort conditioning. The instantaneous (hourly) electrical and gas requirements demanded by the building were ``traced`` back to their source, the point where fuel is extracted from the ground The total energy consumed and emissions produced are quantified for both electric and gas technologies. On an annual basis, electric technologies had carbon dioxide emissions that were 20% to 26% lower when compared with the gas cooling technology. The gas cooling technology had lower total carbon monoxide emissions; however, after accounting for environmental oxidation of the carbon monoxide emissions, the gas cooling technology had an overall 24% to 35% greater oxide of carbon emission impact. The gas technology had a 19% to 25% lower oxide of nitrogen emission rate when compared with the electric technologies. The gas technology had a 3% to 15% lower annual total emission of sulfur dioxide compared to electric technologies. The primary reason for this is the absence of sulfur in the ``clean`` fuel assumed to be used by the gas technology (natural gas). The gas cooling technologies required 20% to 30% more energy to be extracted from the earth to provide the equivalent space conditioning for the prototypical office building when compared with the worst-and best-case electric technologies, respectively.

  5. Study on The Intelligence Control System of Artificial Cooling Source in Architecture

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Z.; Xu, X.

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    . In the system ,Z, gaussmf, and trimf membership function are used. The range of kp ,ki ,kd is [-3 3][-0.1 0.1[? [-300 300] respectively . The range of e and ec are [-1.6 1.6][ -0.3 0.3]; The rules are edited on the function of kp ,ki ,kd in the PID... controller . There are seven fuzzy subclass {PB,PM,PS,ZO,NS,NM,NB}adopted in the system, moreover, centroid method is used to defuzzification. The kp(k), ki(k) and kd(k) in the controller are calculated as: kp(k)=xi1? kp0+k_pid(1)? xi11 (28) ki...

  6. IRAS F02044+0957 radio source in interacting system of galaxies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Verkhodanov, O V; Mujica, R; Valdés, J R; Trushkin, S A

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The steep spectrum of IRAS F02044+0957 was obtained with the RATAN-600 radio telescope at four frequencies. Optical spectroscopy of the system components, was carried out with the 2.1m telescope of the Guillermo Haro Observatory. Observational data allow us to conclude that this object is a pair of interacting galaxies, a LINER and a HII galaxy, at $z=0.093$.

  7. IRAS F02044+0957: radio source in interacting system of galaxies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O. V. Verkhodanov; V. H. Chavushyan; R. Mújica; J. R. Valdés; S. A. Trushkin

    2001-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    The steep spectrum of IRAS F02044+0957 was obtained with the RATAN-600 radio telescope at four frequencies. Optical spectroscopy of the system components, was carried out with the 2.1m telescope of the Guillermo Haro Observatory. Observational data allow us to conclude that this object is a pair of interacting galaxies, a LINER and a HII galaxy, at $z=0.093$.

  8. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  9. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  10. STAR: The Secure Transportable Autonomous Reactor System - Encapsulated Fission Heat Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ehud Greenspan

    2003-10-31T23:59:59.000Z

    OAK-B135 The Encapsulated Nuclear Heat Source (ENHS) is a novel 125 MWth fast spectrum reactor concept that was selected by the 1999 DOE NERI program as a candidate ''Generation-IV'' reactor. It uses Pb-Bi or other liquid-metal coolant and is intended to be factory manufactured in large numbers to be economically competitive. It is anticipated to be most useful to developing countries. The US team studying the feasibility of the ENHS reactor concept consisted of the University of California, Berkeley, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Westinghouse. Collaborating with the US team were three Korean organizations: Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korean Advanced Institute for Science and Technology (KAIST) and the University of Seoul, as well as the Central Research Institute of the Electrical Power Industry (CRIEPI) of Japan. Unique features of the ENHS include at least 20 years of operation without refueling; no fuel handling in the host country; no pumps and valves; excess reactivity does not exceed 1$; fully passive removal of the decay heat; very small probability of core damaging accidents; autonomous operation and capability of load-following over a wide range; very long plant life. In addition it offers a close match between demand and supply, large tolerance to human errors, is likely to get public acceptance via demonstration of superb safety, lack of need for offsite response, and very good proliferation resistance. The ENHS reactor is designed to meet the requirements of Generation IV reactors including sustainable energy supply, low waste, high level of proliferation resistance, high level of safety and reliability, acceptable risk to capital and, hopefully, also competitive busbar cost of electricity.

  11. Design, status and first operations of the spallation neutron source polyphase resonant converter modulator system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reass, W. A. (William A.); Apgar, S. E. (Sean E.); Baca, D. M. (David M.); Doss, James D.; Gonzales, J. (Jacqueline); Gribble, R. F. (Robert F.); Hardek, T. W. (Thomas W.); Lynch, M. T. (Michael T.); Rees, D. E. (Daniel E.); Tallerico, P. J. (Paul J.); Trujillo, P. B. (Pete B.); Anderson, D. E. (David E.); Heidenreich, D. A. (Dale A.); Hicks, J. D. (Jim D.); Leontiev, V. N.

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a new 1.4 MW average power beam, 1 GeV accelerator being built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The accelerator requires 15 converter-modulator stations each providing between 9 and 11 MW pulses with up to a 1 .I MW average power. The converter-modulator can be described as a resonant 20 kHz polyphase boost inverter. Each converter modulator derives its buss voltage from a standard substation cast-core transformer. Each substation is followed by an SCR pre-regulator to accommodate voltage changes from no load to full load, in addition to providing a soft-start function. Energy storage is provided by self-clearing metallized hazy polypropylene traction capacitors. These capacitors do not fail short, but clear any internal anomaly. Three 'H-Bridge' IGBT transistor networks are used to generate the polyphase 20 kHz transformer primary drive waveforms. The 20 kHz drive waveforms are time-gated to generate the desired klystron pulse width. Pulse width modulation of the individual 20 lcHz pulses is utilized to provide regulated output waveforms with DSP based adaptive feedforward and feedback techniques. The boost transformer design utilizes nanocrystalline alloy that provides low core loss at design flux levels and switching frequencies. Capacitors are used on the transformer secondary networks to resonate the leakage inductance. The transformers are wound for a specific leakage inductance, not turns ratio. This design technique generates multiple secondary volts per turn as compared to the primary. With the appropriate tuning conditions, switching losses are minimized. The resonant topology has the added benefit of being deQed in a klystron fault condition, with little energy deposited in the arc. This obviates the need of crowbars or other related networks. A review of these design parameters, operational performance, production status, and OWL installation and performance to date will be presented.

  12. Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)

    2014-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

  13. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  14. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  15. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  16. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  17. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  18. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  19. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  20. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  1. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  2. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  3. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  6. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  7. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  8. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  9. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  10. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  11. Foundation heat exchangers for residential ground source heat pump systems Numerical modeling and experimental validation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xing, Lu [Oklahoma State University; Cullin, James [Oklahoma State University; Spitler, Jeffery [Oklahoma State University; Im, Piljae [ORNL; Fisher, Daniel [Oklahoma State University

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A new type of ground heat exchanger that utilizes the excavation often made for basements or foundations has been proposed as an alternative to conventional ground heat exchangers. This article describes a numerical model that can be used to size these foundation heat exchanger (FHX) systems. The numerical model is a two-dimensional finite-volume model that considers a wide variety of factors, such as soil freezing and evapotranspiration. The FHX numerical model is validated with one year of experimental data collected at an experimental house located near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model shows good agreement with the experimental data-heat pump entering fluid temperatures typically within 1 C (1.8 F) - with minor discrepancies due to approximations, such as constant moisture content throughout the year, uniform evapotranspiration over the seasons, and lack of ground shading in the model.

  12. P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronics Systems," Logistics Spectrum, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 25-28, April-June 2004.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sandborn, Peter

    of sustainment-dominated systems include: avionics, military systems, and industrial equipment. Such products with their redesign due to stringent qualification/certification requirements. Ultimately systems are redesigned one-recurring engineering and system re-qualification costs. Unlike high-volume commercial products in which redesign

  13. Probing SZ Source Detection with Gasdynamical Simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    J. Richard Bond; Marcelo I. Ruetalo; James W. Wadsley; Michael D. Gladders

    2002-05-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The huge worldwide investment in CMB experiments should make the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect a key probe of the cosmic web in the near future. For the promise to be realized, substantial development of simulation and analysis tools to relate observation to theory is needed. The high nonlinearity and dissipative/feedback gas physics lead to highly non-Gaussian patterns that are much more difficult to analyze than Gaussian primary anisotropies for which the procedures are reasonably well developed. Historical forecasts for what CMB experiments might see used semi-analytic tools, including large scale map constructions, with localized and simplified pressure structures distributed on a point process of (clustered) sources. Hydro studies beyond individual cluster/supercluster systems were inadequate, but now large-volume simulations with high resolution are beginning to shift the balance. We illustrate this by applying ``Gasoline'' (parallelized Tree+SPH) computations to construct SZ maps and derive statistical measures. We believe rapid Monte Carlo simulations using parameterized templates centered on point processes informed by optical and other means on the observational side, and by hydro simulations on the theory side, should play an important role in pipelines to analyze the new SZ field data. We show that localized sources should dominate upcoming SZ experiments, identify sources in the maps under filtering and noise levels expected for these experiments, use the RCS photometric optical survey as an example of redshift localization, and discuss whether cosmic web patterns such as superclusters can be enhanced when such extra source information is supplied.

  14. Limits to Forecasting Precision for Outbreaks of Directly Transmitted

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and source are credited. Abbreviations: CV, coefficient of variation; EWS, early warning system; SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome E-mail: drake@nceas.ucsb.edu A B S T R A C T Background Early warning systems variable predicted by early warning systems is the final outbreak size. However, for directly transmitted

  15. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  16. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  17. Identification of Unknown Interface Locations in a Source/Shield System Using the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search Method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Armstrong, Jerawan C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Favorite, Jeffrey A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-20T23:59:59.000Z

    The Levenberg-Marquardt (or simply Marquardt) and differential evolution (DE) optimization methods were recently applied to solve inverse transport problems. The Marquardt method is fast but convergence of the method is dependent on the initial guess. While it has been shown to work extremely well at finding an optimum independent of the initial guess, the DE method does not provide a global optimal solution in some problems. In this paper, we apply the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm to solve the inverse problem of material interface location identification in one-dimensional spherical radiation source/shield systems, and we compare the results obtained by MADS to those obtained by Levenberg-Marquardt and DE.

  18. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  19. Operational characteristics of the J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system for a spallation neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tatsumoto, Hideki; Ohtsu, Kiichi; Aso, Tomokazu; Kawakami, Yoshihiko; Teshigawara, Makoto [J-PARC Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan)

    2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The J-PARC cryogenic hydrogen system provides supercritical hydrogen with the para-hydrogen concentration of more than 99 % and the temperature of less than 20 K to three moderators so as to provide cold pulsed neutron beams of a higher neutronic performance. Furthermore, the temperature fluctuation of the feed hydrogen stream is required to be within ± 0.25 K. A stable 300-kW proton beam operation has been carried out since November 2012. The para-hydrogen concentrations were measured during the cool-down process. It is confirmed that para-hydrogen always exists in the equilibrium concentration because of the installation of an ortho-para hydrogen convertor. Propagation characteristics of temperature fluctuation were measured by temporarily changing the heater power under off-beam condition to clarify the effects of a heater control for thermal compensation on the feed temperature fluctuation. The experimental data gave an allowable temperature fluctuation of ± 1.05 K. It is clarified through a 286-kW and a 524-kW proton beam operations that the heater control would be applicable for the 1-MW proton beam operation by extrapolating from the experimental data.

  20. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  1. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  2. Analysis of PG E's residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

    1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecasts for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.

  3. A comparison of HDR near source dosimetry using a treatment planning system, Monte Carlo simulation, and radiochromic film

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amoush, Ahmad, E-mail: amousha@ccf.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Luckstead, Marcus; Lamba, Michael; Elson, Howard; Kassing, William [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

    2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study aimed to investigate the high-dose rate Iridium-192 brachytherapy, including near source dosimetry, of a catheter-based applicator from 0.5 mm to 1 cm along the transverse axis. Radiochromic film and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation were used to generate absolute dose for the catheter-based applicator. Results from radiochromic film and MC simulation were compared directly to the treatment planning system (TPS) based on the American Association of Physicists in Medicine Updated Task Group 43 (TG-43U1) dose calculation formalism. The difference between dose measured using radiochromic film along the transverse plane at 0.5 mm from the surface and the predicted dose by the TPS was 24%±13%. The dose difference between the MC simulation along the transverse plane at 0.5 mm from the surface and the predicted dose by the TPS was 22.1%±3%. For distances from 1.5 mm to 1 cm from the surface, radiochromic film and MC simulation agreed with TPS within an uncertainty of 3%. The TPS under-predicts the dose at the surface of the applicator, i.e., 0.5 mm from the catheter surface, as compared to the measured and MC simulation predicted dose. MC simulation results demonstrated that 15% of this error is due to neglecting the beta particles and discrete electrons emanating from the sources and not considered by the TPS, and 7% of the difference was due to the photon alone, potentially due to the differences in MC dose modeling, photon spectrum, scoring techniques, and effect of the presence of the catheter and the air gap. Beyond 1 mm from the surface, the TPS dose algorithm agrees with the experimental and MC data within 3%.

  4. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  5. Method and system for determining depth distribution of radiation-emitting material located in a source medium and radiation detector system for use therein

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benke, Roland R. (Helotes, TX); Kearfott, Kimberlee J. (Ann Arbor, MI); McGregor, Douglas S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

    2003-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    A method, system and a radiation detector system for use therein are provided for determining the depth distribution of radiation-emitting material distributed in a source medium, such as a contaminated field, without the need to take samples, such as extensive soil samples, to determine the depth distribution. The system includes a portable detector assembly with an x-ray or gamma-ray detector having a detector axis for detecting the emitted radiation. The radiation may be naturally-emitted by the material, such as gamma-ray-emitting radionuclides, or emitted when the material is struck by other radiation. The assembly also includes a hollow collimator in which the detector is positioned. The collimator causes the emitted radiation to bend toward the detector as rays parallel to the detector axis of the detector. The collimator may be a hollow cylinder positioned so that its central axis is perpendicular to the upper surface of the large area source when positioned thereon. The collimator allows the detector to angularly sample the emitted radiation over many ranges of polar angles. This is done by forming the collimator as a single adjustable collimator or a set of collimator pieces having various possible configurations when connected together. In any one configuration, the collimator allows the detector to detect only the radiation emitted from a selected range of polar angles measured from the detector axis. Adjustment of the collimator or the detector therein enables the detector to detect radiation emitted from a different range of polar angles. The system further includes a signal processor for processing the signals from the detector wherein signals obtained from different ranges of polar angles are processed together to obtain a reconstruction of the radiation-emitting material as a function of depth, assuming, but not limited to, a spatially-uniform depth distribution of the material within each layer. The detector system includes detectors having different properties (sensitivity, energy resolution) which are combined so that excellent spectral information may be obtained along with good determinations of the radiation field as a function of position.

  6. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  7. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  8. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  9. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  10. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  11. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  12. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  13. MODELING, SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF GROUND SOURCE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MODELING, SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS By MUHAMMAD HAIDER KHAN AND OPTIMIZATION OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS Thesis Approved..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.............................................. 1 1

  14. NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and the Ohio State University, and is supported by the National Weather Service. Model output is available 734-741-2235 www.glerl.noaa.gov PREDICTING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE NEARSHORE ZONE Most human Lakes coasts. To date, two high resolution grid experimental models have been developed for Lake

  15. Advanced Photon Source experimental beamline Safety Assessment Document: Addendum to the Advanced Photon Source Accelerator Systems Safety Assessment Document (APS-3.2.2.1.0)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Safety Assessment Document (SAD) addresses commissioning and operation of the experimental beamlines at the Advanced Photon Source (APS). Purpose of this document is to identify and describe the hazards associated with commissioning and operation of these beamlines and to document the measures taken to minimize these hazards and mitigate the hazard consequences. The potential hazards associated with the commissioning and operation of the APS facility have been identified and analyzed. Physical and administrative controls mitigate identified hazards. No hazard exists in this facility that has not been previously encountered and successfully mitigated in other accelerator and synchrotron radiation research facilities. This document is an updated version of the APS Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR). During the review of the PSAR in February 1990, the APS was determined to be a Low Hazard Facility. On June 14, 1993, the Acting Director of the Office of Energy Research endorsed the designation of the APS as a Low Hazard Facility, and this Safety Assessment Document supports that designation.

  16. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  17. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  18. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  19. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  20. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.