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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 20 4010 Miles #12;Bay-S Pinellas Bay-UPR Bay Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12

2

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

3

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the designation as UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLAR April 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering DYNAMIC ALGORITHM FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM A Junior Scholars Thesis by LUKE DUNCAN FISCHER Submitted to the Office of Undergraduate... 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System. (April 2010) Luke Duncan Fischer Department of Nuclear Engineering Texas A&M University Research Advisor: Dr. Stephen Guetersloh...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

4

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

6

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

7

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles West Bay #12;Aransas Bay

8

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

9

Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

Awwad, Haitham Munir

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

11

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

Bertossi, Leopoldo

12

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

14

Documentation of the Hourly Time Series NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- 1 - Documentation of the Hourly Time Series from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial condition 1 Jan 1979, 0Z Record 1: f00: forecast at first time step of 3 mins Record 2: f01: forecast (either averaged over 0 to 1 hour, or instantaneous at 1 hour) Record 3: f02: forecast (either

15

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

16

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

17

THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

18

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW) Full  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT Phase 1 High-Resolution Window Forecast System Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Full Description Product Location The RTOFS for the North Atlantic resolution nest Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system Full Description Product Location (hwrf

19

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Energy Reliability As part of Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Under Task 3.1: Photovoltaic Systems Reliability Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Hawai`i Energy Sustainability Program Subtask 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems Di Niu on the Internet. Automated demand forecast and performance prediction, if implemented, can help with capacity an accurate user demand forecast. In this paper, we analyze the operational traces collected from UUSee Inc

Li, Baochun

22

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation Proposed NewcatalystNeutronEnvironmentZIRKLEEFFECTS OFElaineElectric Grid - Forecasting system

23

Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems

24

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems - Using BoundedCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems - Using BoundedCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems Forecasting the

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2010-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

26

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links

Greenslade, Diana

27

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system breaking points, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2... contract work Saturday Would you plan work for Saturday? Not much detail for Saturday and Sunday With more info could be easier to decide go, no go From deterministic to probabilistic ? Forecast presented as a single scenario ? One scenario presented...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

31

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Xie, Jinxing

34

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System J Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada J. N. S. COLE Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences March 2008) ABSTRACT A new radiation package, "McRad," has become operational with cycle 32R2

Robert, Pincus

36

Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time-Invariant Dynamic Systems with  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Alternatively, time series are represented by state-space models, also referred to as multivariate dynamic and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time to a discrete time, multivariate time series [1, 2]. The primary inference that we address is one- step

Xiang, Yang

37

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

38

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Program Plan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

package. · Two 18 UTC update forecasts on demand basis, with the same domain and configuration, running2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment Program Plan April 20, 2009 #12;2 Table of Content 1. Overview .......................................................................................................4 3. Forecast System Configuration

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

42

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

43

Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

44

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

45

Cryogenic hydrogen circulation system of neutron source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Cold neutron sources of reactors and spallation neutron sources are classic high flux neutron sources in operation all over the world. Cryogenic fluids such as supercritical or supercooled hydrogen are commonly selected as a moderator to absorb the nuclear heating from proton beams. By comparing supercritical hydrogen circulation systems and supercooled hydrogen circulation systems, the merits and drawbacks in both systems are summarized. When supercritical hydrogen circulates as the moderator, severe pressure fluctuations caused by temperature changes will occur. The pressure control system used to balance the system pressure, which consists of a heater as an active controller for thermal compensation and an accumulator as a passive volume controller, is preliminarily studied. The results may provide guidelines for design and operation of other cryogenic hydrogen system for neutron sources under construction.

Qiu, Y. N. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 China and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China); Hu, Z. J.; Wu, J. H.; Li, Q.; Zhang, Y. [Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100190 (China); Zhang, P. [School of Energy and Power Engineering, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, WH430074 (China); Wang, G. P. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ100049 (China)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

46

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

47

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

48

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-term Electricity Demand Forecasting System 1) Obtain Daily Regional Temperatures 6) Estimate Daily WeatherLoad Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation

49

Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

smart grid operations [1]. Despite their ubiquity and the complexity of many forecasting methods, most predictions of upcoming values, typically to minimize a metric such as root mean squared error. However

Kolter, J. Zico

50

Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept

Brest, Université de

51

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Solar Forecasting  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

On December 7, 2012,DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

54

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

55

EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

Heinemann, Detlev

56

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development Project objectives: 1. Compile filtered hourly data for three...

57

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

58

Open Source CRM Systems for SMEs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems are very common in large companies. However, CRM systems are not very common in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Most SMEs do not implement CRM systems due to several reasons, such as lack of knowledge about CRM or lack of financial resources to implement CRM systems. SMEs have to start implementing Information Systems (IS) technology into their business operations in order to improve business values and gain more competitive advantage over rivals. CRM system has the potential to help improve the business value and competitive capabilities of SMEs. Given the high fixed costs of normal activity of companies, we intend to promote free and viable solutions for small and medium businesses. In this paper, we explain the reasons why SMEs do not implement CRM system and the benefits of using open source CRM system in SMEs. We also describe the functionalities of top open source CRM systems, examining the applicability of these tools in fitting the needs of SMEs.

Tereso, Marco

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

60

Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area sector. This paper presents a novel approach for mid-term electricity load forecasting. It uses a hybrid

Ducatelle, Frederick

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

62

Core-melt source reduction system  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results. 4 figs.

Forsberg, C.W.; Beahm, E.C.; Parker, G.W.

1995-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

63

Core-melt source reduction system  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A core-melt source reduction system for ending the progression of a molten core during a core-melt accident and resulting in a stable solid cool matrix. The system includes alternating layers of a core debris absorbing material and a barrier material. The core debris absorbing material serves to react with and absorb the molten core such that containment overpressurization and/or failure does not occur. The barrier material slows the progression of the molten core debris through the system such that the molten core has sufficient time to react with the core absorbing material. The system includes a provision for cooling the glass/molten core mass after the reaction such that a stable solid cool matrix results.

Forsberg, Charles W. (Oak Ridge, TN); Beahm, Edward C. (Oak Ridge, TN); Parker, George W. (Concord, TN)

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest regions growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

66

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

67

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.

Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

as other types of air source heat pumps, VRF systems needconventional packaged air source heat pumps. Typical GSHPis basically an air source heat pump), especially when the

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPLICATIONS OF HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS TO BUILDINGS AND BRIDGE DECKS. By MAHADEVAN Chapter Page 1. Introduction 1.1. Overview of hybrid ground source heat pump systems 1.2. Literature review 1.3. Thesis objective and scope 2. Optimal sizing of hybrid ground source heat pump system

70

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations ­ Current status in U.S. markets ­ Handling uncertainties in system operations ­ Wind power

Kemner, Ken

71

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

72

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

73

Forecasted Opportunities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsing ZirconiaPolicyFeasibilityFieldMinds" |beamtheFor yourForForecasted

74

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,forecasting of solar- radiation data, Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

76

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind

Greenslade, Diana

77

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the manufactunng costs of fuel cells systems from presentlevel and manufactunng cost of PEM fuel cell systems, for amthe present cost cf PEM fuel cell systems by consldenng a

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Power conditioning system for energy sources  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Apparatus for conditioning power generated by an energy source includes an inverter for converting a DC input voltage from the energy source to a square wave AC output voltage, and a converter for converting the AC output voltage from the inverter to a sine wave AC output voltage.

Mazumder, Sudip K. (Chicago, IL); Burra, Rajni K. (Chicago, IL); Acharya, Kaustuva (Chicago, IL)

2008-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

79

Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means.

Peng, Fang Zheng (Oak Ridge, TN); Lai, Jih-Sheng (Knoxville, TN)

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Voltage balanced multilevel voltage source converter system  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Disclosed is a voltage balanced multilevel converter for high power AC applications such as adjustable speed motor drives and back-to-back DC intertie of adjacent power systems. This converter provides a multilevel rectifier, a multilevel inverter, and a DC link between the rectifier and the inverter allowing voltage balancing between each of the voltage levels within the multilevel converter. The rectifier is equipped with at least one phase leg and a source input node for each of the phases. The rectifier is further equipped with a plurality of rectifier DC output nodes. The inverter is equipped with at least one phase leg and a load output node for each of the phases. The inverter is further equipped with a plurality of inverter DC input nodes. The DC link is equipped with a plurality of rectifier charging means and a plurality of inverter discharging means. The plurality of rectifier charging means are connected in series with one of the rectifier charging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of rectifier DC output nodes. The plurality of inverter discharging means are connected in series with one of the inverter discharging means disposed between and connected in an operable relationship with each adjacent pair of inverter DC input nodes. Each of said rectifier DC output nodes are individually electrically connected to the respective inverter DC input nodes. By this means, each of the rectifier DC output nodes and each of the inverter DC input nodes are voltage balanced by the respective charging and discharging of the rectifier charging means and the inverter discharging means. 15 figs.

Peng, F.Z.; Lai, J.S.

1997-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Illumination system having a plurality of movable sources  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

An illumination system includes several discharge sources that are multiplexed together to reduce the amount of debris generated. The system includes: (a) a first electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of first activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a first movable carriage; (b) a second electromagnetic radiation source array that includes a plurality of second activatable radiation source elements that are positioned on a second movable carriage; (c) means for directing electromagnetic radiation from the first electromagnetic radiation source array and electromagnetic radiation from the second electromagnetic radiation source array toward a common optical path; (d) means for synchronizing (i) the movements of the first movable carriage and of the second movable carriage and (ii) the activation of the first electromagnetic radiation source array and of the second electromagnetic radiation source array to provide an essentially continuous illumination of electromagnetic radiation along the common optical path.

Sweatt, William C. (Albuquerque, NM); Kubiak, Glenn D. (Livermore, CA)

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer Michigan system an assessment system around since 1992 #12;Free and Open-Source · Free: "Free beer=split(/\\,/,$line); $username=$entries[4]; _ #12;Campus A Campus B LON-CAPA Architecture Shared Cross-Institutional Resource

84

An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LON-CAPA An Open-Source Learning Content Management and Assessment System Gerd Kortemeyer-CAPA is free open-source a learning content management system an assessment system around since 1992 #12 Cross-Institutional Resource Library (Base de Dados Compartilhada entre Instituições) Resource Assembly

85

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design May 19, 2010 Geothermal Technologies Program 2010 Peer Review ENVIRON International PI : Metin Ozbek Track : GSHP Demonstration Projects This...

87

Model Reduction for Power Electronics Systems with Multiple Heat Sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model Reduction for Power Electronics Systems with Multiple Heat Sources A. Augustin, T. Hauck, B demonstrates the model order re- duction procedures applied to semiconductor devices with multiple heat sources. The approach is demonstrated for a device with nine heat sources where some of them are perma- nently active

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

88

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of...

89

Synchronization System for Next Generation Light Sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An alternative synchronization technique one that would allow explicit control of the pulse train including its repetition rate and delay is clearly desired. We propose such a scheme. Our method is based on optical interferometry and permits synchronization of the pulse trains generated by two independent mode-locked lasers. As the next generation x-ray sources will be driven by a clock signal derived from a mode-locked optical source, our technique will provide a way to synchronize x-ray probe with the optical pump pulses.

Zavriyev, Anton

2014-03-27T23:59:59.000Z

90

Backscatter absorption gas imaging systems and light sources therefore  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

The location of gases that are not visible to the unaided human eye can be determined using tuned light sources that spectroscopically probe the gases and cameras that can provide images corresponding to the absorption of the gases. The present invention is a light source for a backscatter absorption gas imaging (BAGI) system, and a light source incorporating the light source, that can be used to remotely detect and produce images of "invisible" gases. The inventive light source has a light producing element, an optical amplifier, and an optical parametric oscillator to generate wavelength tunable light in the IR. By using a multi-mode light source and an amplifier that operates using 915 nm pump sources, the power consumption of the light source is reduced to a level that can be operated by batteries for long periods of time. In addition, the light source is tunable over the absorption bands of many hydrocarbons, making it useful for detecting hazardous gases.

Kulp, Thomas Jan (Livermore, CA); Kliner, Dahv A. V. (San Ramon, CA); Sommers, Ricky (Oakley, CA); Goers, Uta-Barbara (Campbell, NY); Armstrong, Karla M. (Livermore, CA)

2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

91

Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

Robinson, J.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

A High-Fidelity Temperature Distribution Forecasting System for Data Centers Jinzhu Chen1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

are essential for preventing overheating- induced server shutdowns and improving a data center's energy are complex Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) whose thermal characteristics are inherently affected by both

93

Combined permeable pavement and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The PhD thesis focuses on the performance assessment of permeable pavement systems incorporating ground source heat pumps (GSHP). The relatively high variability of temperature in these systems allows for the survival of pathogenic organisms within...

Grabowiecki, Piotr

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

95

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

96

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:YearRound-UpHeatMulti-Dimensional Subject:Ground Source Heat Pump Subprogram Overview Ground

98

Assessment of dynamic energy conversion systems for radioisotope heat sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The use of dynamic conversion systems to convert the heat generated in a 7500 W(t) 90 Sr radioisotopic heat source to electricity is examined. The systems studies were Stirling; Brayton Cycle; three organic Rankines (ORCs) (Barber-Nichols/ORMAT, Sundstrand, and TRW); and an organic Rankine plus thermoelectrics. The systems were ranked for a North Warning System mission using a Los Alamos Multiattribute Decision Theory code. Three different heat source designs were used: case I with a beginning of life (BOL) source temperature of 640 C, case II with a BOL source temperature of 745/sup 0/C, and case III with a BOL source temperature of 945/sup 0/C. The Stirling engine system was the top-ranked system of cases I and II, closely followed by the ORC systems in case I and ORC plus thermoelectrics in case II. The Brayton cycle system was top-ranked for case III, with the Stirling engine system a close second. The use of /sup 238/Pu in heat source sizes of 7500 W(t) was examined and found to be questionable because of cost and material availability and because of additional requirements for analysis of safeguards and critical mass.

Thayer, G.R.; Mangeng, C.A.

1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

100

Information Sources for Small Water Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managers of small waters systems must have information about a variety of topics. This publication lists essential printed and electronic resources on disaster preparedness, national drinking water standards, private water well management, water...

Dozier, Monty; Theodori, Gene L.; Jensen, Ricard

2007-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

102

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

104

A Technology Assessment System Of The Alternative Energy Sources...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

System Of The Alternative Energy Sources (Sun And Wind) For Rural Communities In Mexico Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Book Section: A...

105

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

TRACING FLUID SOURCES IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM USING FLUID-INCLUSION GAS CHEMISTRY Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings:...

106

Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

2009-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

107

Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

Hudlow, M.D.

108

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

109

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3 forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

110

ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

INFORMATION SYSTEM Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

Katz, Richard

111

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

114

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

NiSource Energy Technologies Inc.: System Integration of Distributed Power for Complete Building Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

Not Available

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Lighting system combining daylight concentrators and an artificial source  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A combined lighting system for a building interior includes a stack of luminescent solar concentrators (LSC), an optical conduit made of preferably optical fibers for transmitting daylight from the LSC stack, a collimating lens set at an angle, a fixture for receiving the daylight at one end and for distributing the daylight as illumination inside the building, an artificial light source at the other end of the fixture for directing artifical light into the fixture for distribution as illumination inside the building, an automatic dimmer/brightener for the artificial light source, and a daylight sensor positioned near to the LSC stack for controlling the automatic dimmer/brightener in response to the daylight sensed. The system also has a reflector positioned behind the artificial light source and a fan for exhausting heated air out of the fixture during summer and for forcing heated air into the fixture for passage into the building interior during winter.

Bornstein, Jonathan G. (Miami, FL); Friedman, Peter S. (Toledo, OH)

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Rainfall-River Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

US Army Corps of Engineers

118

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER SOURCES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER SOURCES Nejc Trdin1, 2 , Marko Bohanec1 , Mitja.bohanec}@ijs.si, mitja.janza@geo-zs.si ABSTRACT Meeting the quality criteria for drinking water is one of the areas which of data collected while monitoring water adequacy, an expert carries a large burden and also his decisions

Bohanec, Marko

119

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

tool for geothermal water loop heat pump systems, 9thInternational IEA Heat Pump Conference, Zrich, Switzerland,Performance of ground source heat pump system in a near-zero

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

122

A capital cost comparison of commercial ground-source heat pump systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report provides a capital cost comparison of commercial ground source heat pump systems. The study includes groundwater systems, ground-coupled systems and hybrid systems.

Rafferty, K.

1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

125

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

127

Advanced Neutron Source reactor control and plant protection systems design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the reactor control and plant protection systems' conceptual design of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS). The Plant Instrumentation, Control, and Data Systems and the Reactor Instrumentation and Control System of the ANS are planned as an integrated digital system with a hierarchical, distributed control structure of qualified redundant subsystems and a hybrid digital/analog protection system to achieve the necessary fast response for critical parameters. Data networks transfer information between systems for control, display, and recording. Protection is accomplished by the rapid insertion of negative reactivity with control rods or other reactivity mechanisms to shut down the fission process and reduce heat generation in the fuel. The shutdown system is designed for high functional reliability by use of conservative design features and a high degree of redundance and independence to guard against single failures. Two independent reactivity control systems of different design principles are provided, and each system has multiple independent rods or subsystems to provide appropriate margin for malfunctions such as stuck rods or other single failures. Each system is capable of maintaining the reactor in a cold shutdown condition independently of the functioning of the other system. A highly reliable, redundant channel control system is used not only to achieve high availability of the reactor, but also to reduce challenges to the protection system by maintaining important plant parameters within appropriate limits. The control system has a number of contingency features to maintain acceptable, off-normal conditions in spite of limited control or plant component failures thereby further reducing protection system challenges.

Anderson, J.L.; Battle, R.E.; March-Leuba, J. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Khayat, M.I. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States))

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

129

Electric machine and current source inverter drive system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A drive system includes an electric machine and a current source inverter (CSI). This integration of an electric machine and an inverter uses the machine's field excitation coil for not only flux generation in the machine but also for the CSI inductor. This integration of the two technologies, namely the U machine motor and the CSI, opens a new chapter for the component function integration instead of the traditional integration by simply placing separate machine and inverter components in the same housing. Elimination of the CSI inductor adds to the CSI volumetric reduction of the capacitors and the elimination of PMs for the motor further improve the drive system cost, weight, and volume.

Hsu, John S

2014-06-24T23:59:59.000Z

130

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

a unique sampling of articles, we examine academic and mediaSample Articles Prediction Source Academic and Trade Totalshow that articles reporting on academic forecasts have

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

The Method of Distributed Volumetric Sources for Forecasting the Transient and Pseudo-steady State Productivity of Multiple Transverse Fractures Intersected by a Horizontal Well  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

level of the fossil-fuel recovery challenge. The mammoth volume and long-term potential of coalbed methane (CBM), tight gas, and hydrate resources are driving technical progress. Attractive gas prices in North America and unprecedented interest... In an era of declining production and increasing demand, economically producing gas from unconventional sources is the next level of the fossil-fuel recovery challenge. 6 The mammoth volume and long-term potential of coalbed methane (CBM), tight gas...

Fan, Diangeng

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

132

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Linac Coherent Light Source Undulator RF BPM System  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) will be the world's first x-ray free-electron laser (FEL) when it becomes operational in 2009. The LCLS is currently in the construction phase. The beam position monitor (BPM) system planned for the LCLS undulator will incorporate a high-resolution X-band cavity BPM system described in this paper. The BPM system will provide high-resolution measurements of the electron beam trajectory on a pulse-to-pulse basis and over many shots. The X-band cavity BPM size, simple fabrication, and high resolution make it an ideal choice for LCLS beam position detection. We will discuss the system specifications, design, and prototype test results.

Lill, R.M.; Morrison, L.H.; Waldschmidt, G.J.; Walters, D.R.; /Argonne; Johnson, R.; Li, Z.; Smith, S.; Straumann, T.; /SLAC

2007-04-17T23:59:59.000Z

134

Cesium Delivery System for Negative Ion Source at IPR  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The technique of surface production of negative ions using cesium, Cs, has been efficiently exploited over the years for producing negative ion beams with increased current densities from negative ion sources used on neutral beam lines. Deposition of Cs on the source walls and the plasma grid lowers the work function and therefore enables a higher yield of H{sup -}, when hydrogen particles (H and/or H{sub x}{sup +}) strike these surfaces.A single driver RF based (100 kW, 1 MHz) negative ion source test bed, ROBIN, is being set up at IPR under a technical collaboration between IPR and IPP, Germany. The optimization of the Cs oven design to be used on this facility as well as multidriver sources is underway. The characterization experiments of such a Cs delivery system with a 1 g Cs inventory have been carried out using surface ionization technique. The experiments have been carried by delivering Cs into a vacuum chamber without plasma. The linear motion of the surface ionization detector, SID, attached with a linear motion feedthrough allows measuring the angular distribution of the Cs coming out of the oven. Based on the experimental results, a Cs oven for ROBIN has been proposed. The Cs oven design and experimental results of the prototype Cs oven are reported and discussed in the paper.

Bansal, G.; Pandya, K.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382 428 (India); Bandyopadhyay, M.; Chakraborty, A.; Singh, M. J. [ITER- India, Institute for Plasma Research, A-29, Sector 25, GIDC, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

2011-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

135

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

138

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

multiple water-to-air heat pump units, which are connectedeach of the water-to-air heat pump units can run in eitheras other types of air source heat pumps, VRF systems need

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Small Business Sourcing System | National Nuclear Security Administration  

National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "ofEarlyEnergyDepartment ofDepartmentStewardship Science AcademicLaboratory |Sourcing System | National

140

A Stochastic Calculus for Network Systems with Renewable Energy Sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We consider the performance modeling and evaluation of network systems powered with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Such energy sources largely depend on environmental conditions, which are hard to predict accurately. As such, it may only make sense to require the network systems to support a soft quality of service (QoS) guarantee, i.e., to guarantee a service requirement with a certain high probability. In this paper, we intend to build a solid mathematical foundation to help better understand the stochastic energy constraint and the inherent correlation between QoS and the uncertain energy supply. We utilize a calculus approach to model the cumulative amount of charged energy and the cumulative amount of consumed energy. We derive upper and lower bounds on the remaining energy level based on a stochastic energy charging rate and a stochastic energy discharging rate. By building the bridge between energy consumption and task execution (i.e., service), we study the QoS guarantee under...

Wu, Kui; Marinakis, Dimitri

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

SOURCE?  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Department of Energy (DOE) in partnership with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is an open-source code package designed to be a common, low-cost, standardized tool...

142

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

143

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

144

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

145

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS FOR TRANSIT MARK FILIPI, AICP PTP 23rd Annual Transportation transportation projects § Develop and maintain Regional Travel Demand Model § Develop forecast socio in cooperative review during all phases of travel demand forecasting 4 #12;Cooperative Review Should Include

Minnesota, University of

146

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the consensus forecast produced in 2006, primarily from the decreased demand as a result of the current nationalConsensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks

Mohaghegh, Shahab

147

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

148

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Demand Forecasting of New Products Using Attribute Analysis Marina Kang A thesis submitted Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock upon currently employed new-SKU demand forecasting methods which involve the processing of large

Sun, Yu

149

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

150

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large

Hamill, Tom

151

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

153

HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM SIMULATION USING VISUAL MODELING TOOL FOR HVACSIM+ M.H. Khan, 74078, USA ABSTRACT This paper presents a simulation of a hybrid ground source heat pump system, performed using a new graphical user interface for HVACSIM+. Hybrid ground source heat pump systems

154

Secondary Startup Neutron Sources as a Source of Tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The hypothesis of this paper is that the Zircaloy clad fuel source is minimal and that secondary startup neutron sources are the significant contributors of the tritium in the RCS that was previously assigned to release from fuel. Currently there are large uncertainties in the attribution of tritium in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Coolant System (RCS). The measured amount of tritium in the coolant cannot be separated out empirically into its individual sources. Therefore, to quantify individual contributors, all sources of tritium in the RCS of a PWR must be understood theoretically and verified by the sum of the individual components equaling the measured values.

Shaver, Mark W.; Lanning, Donald D.

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

156

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Quantifying PV power output variability, Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Multiple delivery cesium oven system for negative ion sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Distribution of cesium in large negative ion beam sources to be operational in ITER, is presently based on the use of three or more cesium ovens, which operate simultaneously and are controlled remotely. However, use of multiple Cs ovens simultaneously is likely to pose difficulties in operation and maintenance of the ovens. An alternate method of Cs delivery, based on a single oven distribution system is proposed as one which could reduce the need of simultaneous operation of many ovens. A proof of principle experiment verifying the concept of a multinozzle distributor based Cs oven has been carried out at Institute for Plasma Research. It is also observed that the Cs flux is not controlled by Cs reservoir temperature after few hours of operation but by the temperature of the distributor which starts behaving as a Cs reservoir.

Bansal, G.; Bhartiya, S.; Pandya, K.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, M. J.; Soni, J.; Gahlaut, A.; Parmar, K. G.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382428 (India)

2012-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

158

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

160

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Study of the design Method of an Efficient Ground Source Heat Pump Thermal Source System in a Cold Area  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system-an energy efficiency and environment friendly system-is becoming popular in many parts of China. However, an imbalance usually exists between the annual heat extracted from and rejected to the ground due...

Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.; Zou, Y.; Du, G.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

On the Maturity of Open Source BPM Systems Petia Wohed1 , Arthur H.M. ter Hofstede2 , Nick Russell3 Management (BPM) systems and the increasing acceptance and spread of open source software. This development and BPM systems? 2. What is the maturity level of these systems? Seeking answers to these questions we

van der Aalst, Wil

163

Forecasting oilfield economic performance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

165

Hybrid Ground Source System Analysis and Tool Development  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Development Principal Investigator Scott Hackel, Energy Center of Wisconsin Ground Source Heat Pumps Demonstration Projects May 18, 2010 This presentation does not contain any...

166

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

167

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

168

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

172

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

& Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

174

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

Mohaghegh, Shahab

175

NiSource Energy Technologies: Optimizing Combined Heat and Power Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Summarizes NiSource Energy Technologies' work under contract to DOE's Distribution and Interconnection R&D. Includes studying distributed generation interconnection issues and CHP system performance.

Not Available

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

177

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2.............................................................................................. 10 #12;Introduction and Background This document describes staff's updated 2007 peak demand forecasts

178

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product estimates. Margaret Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand

179

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

180

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

T he long-term economic forecast calls for the continuation of the economic recovery in 2014 predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada from 2014 onward. The Las Vegas economy-Term Economic Forecast Figure 1: Total Employment (1990-2050) Source: Center for Business and Economic Research

Hemmers, Oliver

182

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast

183

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

186

Combined Operation of Solar Energy Source Heat Pump, Low-vale Electricity and Floor Radiant System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

solar energy, low-vale electricity as heat sources in a floor radiant system are analyzed. This paper presents a new heat pump system and discusses its operational modes in winter....

Liu, G.; Guo, Z.; Hu, S.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

A framework for quantifying complexity and understanding its sources : application to tow large-scale systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The motivation for this work is to quantify the complexity of complex systems and to understand its sources. To study complexity, we develop a theoretical framework where the complex system of interest is embedded in a ...

Martin, Pierre-Alain J. Y

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Designing and testing the neutron source deployment system and calibration plan for a dark matter detector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this thesis, we designed and tested a calibration and deployment system for the MiniCLEAN dark matter detector. The deployment system uses a computer controlled winch to lower a canister containing a neutron source into ...

Westerdale, Shawn (Shawn S.)

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

190

An assessment of the measurement equivalence of rating sources in a multisource feedback system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(Tornow, 1993b; Funderburg & Levy, 1997). Supporters of 360-degree feedback systems believe that each rating source provides the ratee with unique information (e. g. , Hazucha, Hezlett, & Schneider, 1993), so high levels of agreement between rating... sources are not expected. However, 360-degree feedback systems have been criticized for the low levels of agreement between rating sources, as psychometric theory states that high levels of agreement between ratings 1'rom different raters are needed...

Sheehan, Mary Kathleen

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A RESIDENTIAL GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM WITH ANTIFREEZE SOLUTION M in a ground source heat pump system falls near or below 0o C, an antifreeze mixture must be used to prevent freezing in the heat pump. The antifreeze mixture type and concentration has a number of implications

192

Development of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Development of New Three-Level Current-Source Inverter for Grid Connected Photovoltaic System-phase three-level current source inverter (CSI) driven by a single gate-drive power supply in both chopper and inverter, and its feasibility on grid connected photovoltaic system application. Using this new topology

Fujimoto, Hiroshi

193

SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SEEDEEP: A System for Exploring and Querying Scientific Deep Web Data Sources Fan Wang Gagan that are hidden behind query forms, thus forming what is re- ferred to as the deep web. In this paper, we propose SEEDEEP, a System for Exploring and quErying scientific DEEP web data sources. SEEDEEP is able

Agrawal, Gagan

194

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

195

Field Test of High Efficiency Residential Buildings with Ground-source and Air-source Heat Pump Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the field performance of space conditioning and water heating equipment in four single-family residential structures with advanced thermal envelopes. Each structure features a different, advanced thermal envelope design: structural insulated panel (SIP); optimum value framing (OVF); insulation with embedded phase change materials (PCM) for thermal storage; and exterior insulation finish system (EIFS). Three of the homes feature ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) for space conditioning and water heating while the fourth has a two-capacity air-source heat pump (ASHP) and a heat pump water heater (HPWH). Two of the GCHP-equipped homes feature horizontal ground heat exchange (GHX) loops that utillize the existing foundation and utility service trenches while the third features a vertical borehole with vertical u-tube GHX. All of the houses were operated under the same simulated occupancy conditions. Operational data on the house HVAC/Water heating (WH) systems are presented and factors influencing overall performance are summarized.

Ally, Moonis Raza [ORNL] [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL] [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL] [ORNL

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Optimal Ground-Source Heat Pump System Design  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Project objectives: Develop a least-cost design tool (OptGSHP) that will enable GSHP developers to analyze system cost and performance in a variety of building applications to support both design, operational and purchase decisions. Integrate groundwater flow and heat transport into OptGSHP. Demonstrate the usefulness of OptGSHP and the significance of a systems approach to the design of GSHP systems.

197

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

198

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga, , Yuhong Yanga,1 a313 Ford Hall, 224 Church St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Abstract Numerous forecast combination schemes with distinct on combining forecasts with minimizing the occurrence of forecast outliers in mind. An unnoticed phenomenon

Yuhong, Yang

199

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

200

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

202

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid

203

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

204

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

205

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts April 14, 2009 Massoud,000 MW #12;6 Demand Forecasts Price Effect (prior to conservation) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30 Jourabchi #12;2 Changes since the Last Draft ForecastChanges since the Last Draft Forecast Improved

206

Multi-Source Hydronic Heat Pump System Performance Test Bed  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pump unit) with a central chilled water storage tank. The MSHHP system uses significantly less energy than a conventional HVAC system, and lowers peak demand by shifting required electrical energy consumption to lower-cost, off-peak and mid-peak rates...

Meckler, M.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Method and system for imaging a radiation source  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A method for imaging a radiation source, and a device that utilizes these methods that in one embodiment include the steps of: calculating at least one Compton cone of a first parameter of a radiation emission from information received from a sensor occurrence; and tracing this Compton cone on to a unit sphere having preselected characteristics using an estimated angular uncertainty to limit at least a portion of said tracing. In another embodiment of the invention at least two Compton cones are calculated and then intersected upon a predefined surface such as a sphere. These intersection points can then be iterated over a preselected series of prior events.

Myjak, Mitchell J. (Richland, WA) [Richland, WA; Seifert, Carolyn E. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA; Morris, Scott J. (Kennewick, WA) [Kennewick, WA

2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

208

An integrated strategic sourcing process for complex systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Aerospace firms continue to outsource increasingly complex components and systems for access to talent, lower costs, and global presence. In addition to strong competition from Airbus and other emergent companies, Boeing ...

Hsu, David T. (David Ta-wei)

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

210

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

211

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

212

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

214

COMPARATIVE STUDY AMONG HYBRID GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM, COMPLETE GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP AND CONVENTIONAL HVAC SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, a hotel with hybrid geothermal heat pump system (HyGSHP) in the Pensacola is selected and simulated by the transient simulation software package TRNSYS [1]. To verify the simulation results, the validations are conducted by using the monthly average entering water temperature, monthly facility consumption data, and etc. And three types of HVAC systems are compared based on the same building model and HVAC system capacity. The results are presented to show the advantages and disadvantages of HyGSHP compared with the other two systems in terms of energy consumptions, life cycle cost analysis.

Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Values in TWh forthe Year2022 Formula Mid Demand Forecast Renewable Net High Demand Forecast Renewable Net Low Demand Forecast Renewable Net #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION5 Demand Forecast · Retail Sales Forecast from California Energy Demand 2012 2022(CED 2011), Adopted Forecast* ­ Form 1.1c · Demand Forecast

216

Interconnected High-Voltage Pulsed-Power Converters System Design for H? Ion Sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents the design and experimental validations of a system of three new high-voltage (HV) pulsedpower converters for the H? sources. The system requires three pulsed voltages (50, 40, and 25 kV to ground) at 2-Hz repetition rate, for 700 ?s of usable flat-top. The solution presents ripplefree output voltages and minimal stored energy to protect the ion source from the consequences of arc events. Experimental results on the final full-scale prototype are presented. In case of short-circuit events, the maximal energy delivered to the source is in the Joule range. HV flat-top stability of 1% is experimentally achieved with a simple Proportional-Integral- Derivative regulation and preliminary tuned H? source (e.g., radio frequency control, gas injection, and so forth). The system is running since more than a year with no power converter failures and damage to the source.

Aguglia, D

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Infuse: A Tool for Automatically Managing and Coordinating Source Changes in Large Systems Dewayne changes occur outside the tool. In contrast, Infuse concentrates on the actual change process and provides facilities for both managing and coordinating source changes. Infuse provides facilities for automatically

Perry, Dewayne E.

219

DYNAMIC MODELLING OF AUTONOMOUS POWER SYSTEMS INCLUDING RENEWABLE POWER SOURCES.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(thermal, gas, diesel) and renewable (hydro, wind) power units. The objective is to assess the impact - that have a special dynamic behaviour, and the wind turbines. Detailed models for each one of the power system components are developed. Emphasis is given in the representation of different hydro power plant

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

220

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Impact of Dynamic PHEVs Load on Renewable Sources based Distribution System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of Dynamic PHEVs Load on Renewable Sources based Distribution System F. R. Islam, H. R. Pota.Roy@student.adfa.edu.au Abstract--In this paper, charging effect of dynamic Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is presented in a renewable energy based electricity distribution system. For planning and designing a distribution system

Pota, Himanshu Roy

222

Chapter III. Processes F. Land-Based N Sources and Their Delivery to Coastal Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to terrestrial systems of newly fixed N2 (the conversion of relatively inert N2 gas to more bioavailable N forms can be important pathways for delivery of land-based N sources. This chapter focuses on export of N

Seitzinger, Sybil

223

Biofilms as sources of fecal bacteria contamination in the stormwater drainage system in Singapore  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A study was performed to examine a possible source of fecal bacteria contamination originating from within the stormwater drainage system in Singapore. The extent of fecal bacteria presence in storm drain biofilms was ...

Burkhart, Tsung Hwa (Tsung Hwa Sophia)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Integration of renewable energy sources: reliability-constrained power system planning and operations using computational intelligence  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of cost, power dispatchability, and environmental impact. For instance, the intermittency of some renewable energy sources may compromise the system reliability when they are integrated into the traditional power grids. Thus, multiple issues should...

Wang, Lingfeng

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

225

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

226

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

227

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Ground Source Heat Pump System Data Analysis | Department of Energy  

Energy Savers [EERE]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of Inspector General Office0-72.pdfGeorge Waldmann GeorgeLogging Systems (DecemberGREENINGSenate

229

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2002), 128, pp. 285321 In uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems By R. E. MORSS¤ and K. A. EMANUEL Massachusetts Institute to improve individual forecasts have shown a mix of positive, negative, and neutral results. In this study, the in uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors is explored in idealized systems

Emanuel, Kerry A.

231

Chameleon foreCAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Dark energy models, such as the chameleon, where the acceleration of the expansion of the universe results from the dynamics of a scalar field coupled to matter, suffer from the potential existence of a fifth force. Three known mechanisms have been proposed to restore General Relativity in the solar system and the laboratory, which are the symmetron/Damour-Polyakov effect, the Vainshtein property and the chameleon screening. Here, we propose to probe the existence of chameleons in the laboratory, considering their particle physics consequences. We envisage the resonant and non-resonant production of chameleons in the sun and their back-conversion into X-ray photons in a solar helioscope pipe such as the one used by CAST. A detection of these X-rays would indicate the existence of chameleons. We focus on a template model for the solar magnetic field: a constant magnetic field in a narrow shell surrounding the tachocline. The X-ray photons in a helioscope pipe obtained from back-conversion of the chameleons created inside the sun have a spectrum which is peaked in the sub-keV region, just below the actual sensitivity range of the present axion helioscopes. Nevertheless they are detectable by present day magnetic helioscopes like CAST and Sumico, which were built originally for solar axions. We also propose a chameleon-through-a-wall experiment whereby X-ray photons from a synchroton radiation source could be converted into chameleons inside a dipole magnet, then pass a wall which is opaque to X-rays before being back-converted into X-ray photons in a second magnet downstream. We show that this could provide a direct signature for the existence of chameleon particles.

Philippe Brax; Axel Lindner; Konstantin Zioutas

2012-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

232

ADVANCED RADIOISOTOPE HEAT SOURCE AND PROPULSION SYSTEMS FOR PLANETARY EXPLORATION  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The exploration of planetary surfaces and atmospheres may be enhanced by increasing the range and mobility of a science platform. Fundamentally, power production and availability of resources are limiting factors that must be considered for all science and exploration missions. A novel power and propulsion system is considered and discussed with reference to a long-range Mars surface exploration mission with in-situ resource utilization. Significance to applications such as sample return missions is also considered. Key material selections for radioisotope encapsulation techniques are presented.

R. C. O'Brien; S. D. Howe; J. E. Werner

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

234

System for recovery of daughter isotopes from a source material  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A method of separating isotopes from a mixture containing at least two isotopes in a solution is disclosed. A first isotope is precipitated and is collected from the solution. A daughter isotope is generated and collected from the first isotope. The invention includes a method of producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product from a material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232. A solution is formed containing nitric acid and the material containing thorium-229 and thorium-232, and iodate is added to form a thorium iodate precipitate. A supernatant is separated from the thorium iodate precipitate and a second volume of nitric acid is added to the thorium iodate precipitate. The thorium iodate precipitate is stored and a decay product comprising actinium-225 and bismuth-213 is generated in the second volume of nitric acid, which is then separated from the thorium iodate precipitate, filtered, and treated using at least one chromatographic procedure. A system for producing an actinium-225/bismuth-213 product is also disclosed.

Tranter, Troy J. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Todd, Terry A. (Aberdeen, ID) [Aberdeen, ID; Lewis, Leroy C. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID; Henscheid, Joseph P. (Idaho Falls, ID) [Idaho Falls, ID

2009-08-04T23:59:59.000Z

235

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Session: Short-term forecasting of wind power (BT2.5) Track: Technical  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Session: Short-term forecasting of wind power (BT2.5) Track: Technical BEST PRACTICE IN THE USE) Armines / Ecole des Mines Short-term forecasting of wind power for about 48 hours in advance is an established technique by now. Any utility getting over a few percent wind power penetration is buying a system

237

The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power transmission systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal power plants, and wind turbines are nonconventional, environmentally attractive sources of energy that can be considered for electric power generation. Many of the areas with abundant renewable energy resources (very sunny or windy areas) are far removed from major load centers. Although electrical power can be transmitted over long distances of many hundreds of miles through high-voltage transmission lines, power transmission systems often operate near their limits with little excess capacity for new generation sources. This study assesses the available capacity of transmission systems in designated abundant renewable energy resource regions and identifies the requirements for high-capacity plant integration in selected cases. In general, about 50 MW of power from renewable sources can be integrated into existing transmission systems to supply local loads without transmission upgrades beyond the construction of a substation to connect to the grid. Except in the Southwest, significant investment to strengthen transmission systems will be required to support the development of high-capacity renewable sources of 1000 MW or greater in areas remote from major load centers. Cost estimates for new transmission facilities to integrate and dispatch some of these high-capacity renewable sources ranged from several million dollars to approximately one billion dollars, with the latter figure an increase in total investment of 35%, assuming that the renewable source is the only user of the transmission facility.

Barnes, P.R.; Dykas, W.P.; Kirby, B.J.; Purucker, S.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Lawler, J.S. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Short communication Optimization of hybrid ground coupled and air source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short communication Optimization of hybrid ­ ground coupled and air source ­ heat pump systems 2008 Accepted 14 January 2010 Available online 28 January 2010 Keywords: Ground coupled heat pump Air to water heat pump Thermal storage device Hybrid HVAC system Energy efficiency Numerical simulation a b

Fernández de Córdoba, Pedro

239

The integration of renewable energy sources into electric power distribution systems. Volume 2, Utility case assessments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Electric utility distribution system impacts associated with the integration of renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WT) are considered in this project. The impacts are expected to vary from site to site according to the following characteristics: (1) The local solar insolation and/or wind characteristics; (2) renewable energy source penetration level; (3) whether battery or other energy storage systems are applied; and (4) local utility distribution design standards and planning practices. Small, distributed renewable energy sources are connected to the utility distribution system like other, similar kW- and MW-scale equipment and loads. Residential applications are expected to be connected to single-phase 120/240-V secondaries. Larger kw-scale applications may be connected to three-phase secondaries, and larger hundred-kW and MW-scale applications, such as MW-scale windfarms or PV plants, may be connected to electric utility primary systems via customer-owned primary and secondary collection systems. Small, distributed renewable energy sources installed on utility distribution systems will also produce nonsite-specific utility generation system benefits such as energy and capacity displacement benefits, in addition to the local site-specific distribution system benefits. Although generation system benefits are not site-specific, they are utility-specific, and they vary significantly among utilities in different regions. In addition, transmission system benefits, environmental benefits and other benefits may apply. These benefits also vary significantly among utilities and regions. Seven utility case studies considering PV, WT, and battery storage were conducted to identify a range of potential renewable energy source distribution system applications.

Zaininger, H.W.; Ellis, P.R.; Schaefer, J.C. [Zaininger Engineering Co., San Jose, CA (United States)

1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more ...

Ng, Jeffrey

242

Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

Goodman, Theodore H.

243

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely

Boyer, Edmond

245

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

246

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

247

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation

Boyer, Edmond

248

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservationLoad forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

249

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections of commercial floor space

250

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

251

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared

252

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch

253

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

254

Designing, selecting and installing a residential ground-source heat pump system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It's a compelling proposition: Use the near-constant-temperature heat underground to heat and cool your home and heat domestic water, slashing your energy bills. Yet despite studies demonstrating significant energy savings from ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems, their adoption has been hindered by high upfront costs. Fewer than 1% of US homes use a GSHP system. However, compared to a minimum-code-compliant conventional space-conditioning system, when properly designed and installed, a GSHP retrofit at current market prices offers simple payback of 4.3 years on national average, considering existing federal tax credits. Most people understand how air-source heat pumps work: they move heat from indoor air to outdoor air when cooling and from outdoor air to indoor air when heating. The ground-source heat pump operates on the same principle, except that it moves heat to or from the ground source instead of outdoor air. The ground source is usually a vertical or horiontal ground heat exchanger. Because the ground usually has a more favorable temperature than ambient air for the heating and cooling operation of the vapor-compression refrigeration cycle, GSHP sysems can operate with much higher energy efficiencies than air-source heat pump systems when properly designed and installed. A GSHP system used in a residual building typically provides space conditioning and hot water and comprises three major components: a water-source heat pump unit designed to operate at a wider range of entering fluid temperatures (typically from 30 F to 110 F, or 1 C to 43 C) than a conventional water-source heat pump unit; a ground heat exchanger (GHX); and distribution systems to deliver hot water to the storage tank and heating or cooling to the conditioned rooms. In most residual GSHP systems, the circulation pumps and associated valves are integrated with the heat pump to circulate the heat-carrier fluid (water or aqueous antifreeze solution) through the heat pump and the GHX. A recent assessment indicates that if 20% of US homes replaced their existing space-conditioning and water-heating systems with properly designed, installed and operated state-of-the-art GSHP systems, it would yield significant benefits each year. These include 0.8 quad British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy savings, 54.3 million metric tons of CO{sub 2} emission reductions, $10.4 billion in energy cost savings and 43.2 gigawatts of reduction in summer peak electrical demand.

Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Liu, Xiaobing [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 Gorin Principal Authors Lynn Marshall Project Manager Kae C. Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting

256

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

257

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

Kemner, Ken

258

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

259

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

260

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

The Ultra Luminous X-ray sources in the High Velocity System of NGC 1275  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We report the results of a study of X-ray point sources coincident with the High Velocity System (HVS) projected in front of NGC 1275. A very deep X-ray image of the core of the Perseus cluster made with the Chandra Observatory has been used. We find a population of Ultra-Luminous X-ray sources (ULX; 7 sources with LX [0.5-7 keV] > 7x10^39 erg/s). As with the ULX populations in the Antennae and Cartwheel galaxies, those in the HVS are associated with a region of very active star formation. Several sources have possible optical counterparts found on HST images, although the X-ray brightest one does not. Absorbed power-law models fit the X-ray spectra, with most having a photon index between 2 and 3.

O. Gonzalez-Martin; A. C. Fabian; J. S. Sanders

2006-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

262

Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, and chemical reactant sources  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor systems, chemical reactant sources, and related methods are disclosed. In one embodiment, a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor system comprising a reaction chamber, a combustion torch positioned to direct a flame into the reaction chamber, and one or more reactant feed assemblies configured to electrically energize at least one electrically conductive solid reactant structure to form a plasma and feed each electrically conductive solid reactant structure into the plasma to form at least one product is disclosed. In an additional embodiment, a chemical reactant source for a combustion flame-plasma hybrid reactor comprising an elongated electrically conductive reactant structure consisting essentially of at least one chemical reactant is disclosed. In further embodiments, methods of forming a chemical reactant source and methods of chemically converting at least one reactant into at least one product are disclosed.

Kong, Peter C

2013-11-26T23:59:59.000Z

263

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

264

Discussions on Disposal Forms of Auxiliary Heat Source in Surface Water Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents two common forms of auxiliary heat source in surface water heat pump system and puts forward the idea that the disposal forms affect operation cost. It deduces operation cost per hour of the two forms. With a project...

Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.; Li, G.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Thermal Economic Analysis of an Underground Water Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper presents the thermal economic analysis of an underground water source heat pump system in a high school building based on usage per exergy cost as an evaluation standard, in which the black box model has been used and the cost...

Zhang, W.; Lin, B.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

A Novel Integrated Frozen Soil Thermal Energy Storage and Ground-Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this paper, a novel integrated frozen soil thermal energy storage and ground-source heat pump (IFSTS&GSHP) system in which the GHE can act as both cold thermal energy storage device and heat exchanger for GSHP is first presented. The IFSTS...

Jiang, Y.; Yao, Y.; Rong, L.; Ma, Z.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Smart Engineering System Design, vol. 4:243-252, 2002 NETWORK CONGESTION ARBITRATION AND SOURCE PROBLEM  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to address the problem. However, these tools simply give the network administrator a great deal1 Smart Engineering System Design, vol. 4:243-252, 2002 NETWORK CONGESTION ARBITRATION AND SOURCE PROBLEM PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS J. ALAN BIVENS Computer Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Varela, Carlos

268

Source and mobility of Rare Earth Elements in a sedimentary aquifer system: Aquitaine basin (Southern France)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Source and mobility of Rare Earth Elements in a sedimentary aquifer system: Aquitaine basin Geological Survey Service, Bordeaux, France, e.malcuit@brgm.fr The study of rare earth elements (REEs such as rivers and lakes and groundwaters. Rare earth elements) are of great interest because of their unique

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

269

Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage Systems*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multiple-Source and Multiple-Destination Charge Migration in Hybrid Electrical Energy Storage massimo.poncino@polito.it Abstract-- Hybrid electrical energy storage (HEES) systems consist of multiple banks of heterogeneous electrical energy storage (EES) elements that are connected to each other through

Pedram, Massoud

270

Blind Identification of MIMO FIR Systems Driven by Quasi-Stationary Sources Using Second Order  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Blind Identification of MIMO FIR Systems Driven by Quasi-Stationary Sources Using Second Order This paper discusses a frequency domain method for blind identification of MIMO convolutive channels driven are presented to demonstrate the performance of the new algorithm1 . I. Introduction Blind identification

Reilly, James P.

271

Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. More Documents & Publications Future Power...

272

Characteristics of elliptical sources in BEAMnrc Monte Carlo system: Implementation and application  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Recently, several papers noticed that the electron focal spot of a linear accelerator (linac) could be elliptical which would cause dosimetric discrepancies between measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. To resolve the mismatch, two elliptical source models were developed in BEAMnrc code. The first was a parallel beam elliptical source with uniform distribution where the shape of the source was primarily considered. The other was a parallel beam elliptical source with Gaussian distribution whose source distribution follows the normal distribution. To validate the elliptical source models, uniform and Gaussian electron beams were impinged on a thin air target. Both models successfully reproduced the elliptical shapes and source distributions. Then, this study investigated the characteristics of the elliptical Gaussian source for a 6 MV photon beam in a Varian 21EX linac. The linac head model was implemented in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system and commissioned by comparing the lateral and depth dose profiles to the ion chamber measurements acquired from the annual quality assurance (QA). It was found that the circular Gaussian beam with 6 MeV/0.2 cm full width half maximum (FWHM) produces the best matches to the QA data. To explore the characteristics of the elliptical Gaussian source, this study employed an elliptical Gaussian electron source with 0.1 cm FWHM in the x axis and 0.2 cm FWHM in the y axis which was incident on the target of the linac head. Two circular Gaussian beams with 0.1 and 0.2 cm FWHM were employed to compare the differences between circular and elliptical sources. For all the sources, planar and energy fluences were acquired and analyzed. This study also compared the lateral and depth dose profiles in a water phantom by using a DOSXYZnrc user code. In results, a constricted shoulder effect was observed in both planar and energy fluence plots when the FWHM value was increased and the field size is larger than 30x30 cm{sup 2}. The same effect was also noticed in the lateral dose profiles, while the depth dose profile did not vary much.

Kim, Sangroh [Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States)

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

273

Electron emission in a source-collector sheath system: A kinetic study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The classical source-collector sheath system describes a plasma that forms between a Maxwellian source and an absorbing wall. The plasma is assumed to be collisionless and without ionization. Two distinct areas are being formed: the collector sheath, an ion-rich region in contact with the absorbing boundary, and the source sheath, which is an electron-rich area near the Maxwellian source. In this work, we study a modified version of the classical source-collector sheath system, where the wall is no longer absorbing but emits electrons. As a result, we have two different types of collector sheath, one where a potential well is formed and one without a potential well. We examine the effect of electron emission for a range of conditions for the plasma and the emitted electrons. In the first part of this work, we study the problem analytically, and in the second, using our kinetic Vlasov code, Yggdrasil. The simulation results are in very good agreement with the predictions of our theoretical model.

Rizopoulou, N., E-mail: nikoleta.rizopoulou06@imperial.ac.uk; Coppins, M.; Bacharis, M. [Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BW (United Kingdom); Robinson, A. P. L. [Central Laser Facility, Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0QX (United Kingdom)

2014-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

274

Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) is the probability forecast based on an arbitrary vector wE in the unit simplex, experts forecasts ?E , and model {p?} . Remark 2 In most cases, we can choose c = 1/?, implying in the result below that c? = 1. Example 3 The prediction function is a mixture... 0 = 1, and #IT (k) = tk+1 ? tk. Define ek ? E. Theorem 12 Under Conditions 1 and 7, R1,...,t (pW ) ? c? K? k=0 Rt(k),...,t(k+1)?1 ( p?(e(k)) ) + c ln (#E) ?c K? k=1 ln ut(k) (ek, ek?1)? c K? k=0 t(k+1)?2? s=t(k) ln (us+1 (ek, ek)) . 9 Remark 13...

Sancetta, Alessio

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

275

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Life cycle assessment of base-load heat sources for district heating system options  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose There has been an increased interest in utilizing renewable energy sources in district heating systems. District heating systems are centralized systems that provide heat for residential and commercial buildings in a community. While various renewable and conventional energy sources can be used in such systems, many stakeholders are interested in choosing the feasible option with the least environmental impacts. This paper evaluates and compares environmental burdens of alternative energy source options for the base load of a district heating center in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) using the life cycle assessment method. The considered energy sources include natural gas, wood pellet, sewer heat, and ground heat. Methods The life cycle stages considered in the LCA model cover all stages from fuel production, fuel transmission/transportation, construction, operation, and finally demolition of the district heating system. The impact categories were analyzed based on the IMPACT 2002+ method. Results and discussion On a life-cycle basis, the global warming effect of renewable energy options were at least 200 kgeqCO2 less than that of the natural gas option per MWh of heat produced by the base load system. It was concluded that less than 25% of the upstream global warming impact associated with the wood pellet energy source option was due to transportation activities and about 50% of that was resulted from wood pellet production processes. In comparison with other energy options, the wood pellets option has higher impacts on respiratory of inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification, and nutrification categories. Among renewable options, the global warming impact of heat pump options in the studied case in Vancouver, BC, were lower than the wood pellet option due to BC's low carbon electricity generation profile. Ozone layer depletion and mineral extraction were the highest for the heat pump options due to extensive construction required for these options. Conclusions Natural gas utilization as the primary heat source for district heat production implies environmental complications beyond just the global warming impacts. Diffusing renewable energy sources for generating the base load district heat would reduce human toxicity, ecosystem quality degradation, global warming, and resource depletion compared to the case of natural gas. Reducing fossil fuel dependency in various stages of wood pellet production can remarkably reduce the upstream global warming impact of using wood pellets for district heat generation.

Ghafghazi, Saeed [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sowlati, T. [University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL; Melin, Staffan [Delta Research Corporation

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecast

278

1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future a reliable power system with just enough capacity (with proper reliability margins) to support their customers. Distribution systems are the retail part of utilities that supply power to their customers

Chow, Mo-Yuen

279

Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Full Report)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems.

Not Available

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Energy Sources and Systems Analysis: 40 South Lincoln Redevelopment District (Short Report)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents the a brief overview of the results of a case study to analyze district energy systems for their potential use in a project that involves redeveloping 270 units of existing public housing, along with other nearby sites. When complete, the redevelopment project will encompass more than 900 mixed-income residential units, commercial and retail properties, and open space. The analysis estimated the hourly heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and electric loads required by the community; investigated potential district system technologies to meet those needs; and researched available fuel sources to power such systems. A full report of this case study is also available.

Not Available

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Evaluation of White Light Sources For an Absolute Fiber Optic Sensor Readout System  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes work done in pursuit of an absolute readout system for Fabry-Perot optics sensors such as those built both by FISO and LLNL. The use of white light results in a short coherence length reducing the ambiguity of the Fabry-Perot gap measurement which is required to readout the sensor. The light source coherence length is the critical parameter in determining the ability to build a relative or an absolute system. Optical sources such as lasers and LEDs are rather narrow in optical spectral bandwidth and have long coherence length. Thus, when used in interferometric sensor measurements, one fringe looks much like another and it is difficult to make an absolute measurement. In contrast, white light sources are much broader in spectral bandwidth and have very short coherence lengths making interferometry possible only over the coherence length, which can be 1 or 2 microns. The small number of fringes in the interferogram make it easier to calculate the centroid and to unambiguously determine the sensor gap. However, unlike LEDs and Lasers, white light sources have very low optical power when coupled into optical fibers. Although, the overall light output of a white light source can be hundreds of milliwatts to watts, it is difficult to couple more than microwatts into a 50-micron core optical fiber. In addition, white light sources have a large amount of optical power in spectrum that is not necessarily useful in terms of sensor measurements. The reflectivity of a quarter wave of Titanium Oxide is depicted in Figure 2. This coating of Titanium Oxide is used in the fabrication of the sensor. This figure shows that any light emitted at wavelengths shorter than 600 nm is not too useful for the readout system. A white light LED spectrum is depicted in Figure 3 and shows much of the spectrum below 600 nm. In addition Silicon photodiodes are usually used in the readout system limiting the longest wavelength to about 1100 nm. Tungsten filament sources may have much of their optical power at wavelengths longer than 1100 nm, which is outside the wavelength range of interest. An incandescent spectrum from a tungsten filament is depicted in Figure 4. None of this is to say that other types of readout systems couldn't be built with IR detectors and broadband coatings for the sensors. However, without reengineering the sensors, the wavelength restrictions must be tolerated.

McConaghy, C F

2003-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

282

Control system for 5 MW neutral beam ion source for SST1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This article describes the control system for a 5 MW ion source of the NBI (neutral beam injector) for steady-state superconducting tokamak-1 (SST-1). The system uses both hardware and software solutions. It comprises a DAS (data acquisition system) and a control system. The DAS is used to read the voltage and current signals from eight filament heater power supplies and 24 discharge power supplies. The control system is used to adjust the filament heater current in order to achieve an effective control on the discharge current in the plasma box. The system consists of a VME (Verse Module Eurocard) system and C application program running on a VxWorks{sup TM} real-time operating system. A PID (proportional, integral, and differential) algorithm is used to control the filament heater current. Experiments using this system have shown that the discharge current can be controlled within 1% accuracy for a PID loop time of 20 ms. Response of the control system to the pressure variation of the gas in the chamber has also been studied and compared with the results obtained from those of an uncontrolled system. The present approach increases the flexibility of the control system. It not only eases the control of the plasma but also allows an easy changeover to various operation scenarios.

Patel, G.B.; Onali, Raja; Sharma, Vivek; Suresh, S.; Tripathi, V.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Singh, N.P.; Thakkar, Dipal; Gupta, L.N.; Singh, M.J.; Patel, P.J.; Chakraborty, A.K.; Baruah, U.K.; Mattoo, S.K. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India-382428 (India)

2006-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

283

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Thulium heat source for high-endurance and high-energy density power systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We are studying the performance characteristics of radioisotope heat source designs for high-endurance and high-energy-density power systems that use thulium-170. Heat sources in the power range of 5--50 kW{sub th} coupled with a power conversion efficiency of {approximately}30%, can easily satisfy current missions for autonomous underwater vehicles. New naval missions will be possible because thulium isotope power systems have a factor of one-to-two hundred higher endurance and energy density than chemical and electrochemical systems. Thulium-170 also has several other attractive features, including the fact that it decays to stable ytterbium-170 with a half-life of four months. For terrestrial applications, refueling on that time scale should be acceptable in view of the advantage of its benign decay. The heat source designs we are studying account for the requirements of isotope production, shielding, and integration with power conversion components. These requirements are driven by environmental and safety considerations. Thulium is present in the form of thin refractory thulia disks that allow power conversion at high peak temperature. We give estimates of power system state points, performance, mass, and volume characteristics. Monte Carlo radiation analysis provides a detailed assessment of shield requirements and heat transfer under normal and distressed conditions is also considered. 11 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

Walter, C.E.; Kammeraad, J.E.; Van Konynenburg, R.; VanSant, J.H.

1991-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

Sancetta, Alessio

288

Solid low-level waste forecasting guide  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

The Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

290

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigerant flow systems and ground source heat pump systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of energy efficiency between variable refrigeranttheir superior energy efficiency. The variable refrigerantfew studies reporting the energy efficiency of VRF systems

Hong, Tainzhen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview Campus by campus Snapshot in time Not all projects Construction coordination efforts

Kamat, Vineet R.

292

Spark-protected ion-source control and monitoring system at 1. 5 MV  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Heavy Ion Fusion Program at Argonne National Laboratory utilizes a 1.5-MV Xe ion preaccelerator. Reliable beam transport requires accurate measurements and precise control of various ion-source parameters. This paper discusses the use of a multiplexed fiberoptic data-transmission system and low-cost digital stepper motors for control functions. Techniques are discussed which allow TTL and CMOS semiconductor curcuits to survive the destructive sparks which can occur in the 1.5-MV preaccelerator.

Bogaty, J.M.; Zolecki, R.

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

STUDY OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

STUDY OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS OF FROST GROWTH ON HEAT EXCHANGERS USED AS OUTDOOR COILS IN AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS Dissertation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3.5.3 Air Side Heat Transfer Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.5.4 Fluid Side Heat

294

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

296

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation Vivien Mallet1. [1] Sequential aggregation is an ensemble forecasting approach that weights each ensemble member based on past observations and past forecasts. This approach has several limitations: The weights

Mallet, Vivien

297

Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is to issue deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models. Uncertainty canProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc discretization than is seen in other weather quantities. The prevailing paradigm in weather forecasting

Washington at Seattle, University of

298

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes MURUVVET CELIKBAS1 departments which enable organizations to match demand forecasts with production quantities. This research problem where demand is uncertain and the marketing de- partment provides a forecast to manufacturing

Swaminathan, Jayashankar M.

299

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy-2 Demand Forecast Disaggregation......................................................1-4 Statewide

300

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand Aggregate plan Master production Planning and Forecast Bias · Forecast error seldom is normally distributed · There are few finite planning

Brock, David

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

Parsons, Simon

302

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

303

Waste heat recovery from the European Spallation Source cryogenic helium plants - implications for system design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron spallation project currently being designed will be built outside of Lund, Sweden. The ESS design includes three helium cryoplants, providing cryogenic cooling for the proton accelerator superconducting cavities, the target neutron source, and for the ESS instrument suite. In total, the cryoplants consume approximately 7 MW of electrical power, and will produce approximately 36 kW of refrigeration at temperatures ranging from 2-16 K. Most of the power consumed by the cryoplants ends up as waste heat, which must be rejected. One hallmark of the ESS design is the goal to recycle waste heat from ESS to the city of Lund district heating system. The design of the cooling system must optimize the delivery of waste heat from ESS to the district heating system and also assure the efficient operation of ESS systems. This report outlines the cooling scheme for the ESS cryoplants, and examines the effect of the cooling system design on cryoplant design, availability and operation.

Jurns, John M. [European Spallation Source ESS AB, P.O. Box 176, 221 00 Lund (Sweden); Bck, Harald [Sweco Industry AB, P.O. Box 286, 201 22 Malm (Sweden); Gierow, Martin [Lunds Energikoncernen AB, P.O. Box 25, 221 00 Lund (Sweden)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

304

NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and ResourcesOtherForecasting NREL researchers use solar and

305

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

306

Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the U.S. residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which

307

The Climate of the McMurdo, Antarctica, Region as Represented by One Year of Forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs a limited-area model, the Polar fifth-generation and seasonal distributions of wind direction and speed, 2-m temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation influence on the near-surface winds. Time-mean vortices occur in the lee of Ross Island, perhaps a factor

Howat, Ian M.

308

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

309

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

Heinemann, Detlev

310

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

311

Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events...

Jahn, Wolfram

312

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

313

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

314

Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

Genève, Université de

315

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

316

-Assessment of current water conditions -Precipitation Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;-Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought of the mountains, so early demand for irrigation water should be minimal as we officially move into spring. Western, it is forecast to bring wet snow to the eastern slope of the Rockies, with less accumulations west of the divide

317

A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

Vertes, Akos

318

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

de Lijser, Peter

319

Model of the heat source of the Cerro Prieto magma-hydrothermal system, Baja California, Mexico  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Earlier studies at Cerro Prieto by UCR have led to the development of a qualitative model for field flow in the geothermal system before it was drilled and perturbed by production. Current efforts are directed towards numerical modelling of heat and mass transfer in the system in this undisturbed state. A two-dimensional model assumes that the heat sources were a single basalt/gabbro intrusion which provided heat to the system as it cooled. After compiling various information on the physical properties of the reservoir, the enthalpy contained in two 1cm thick section across the reservoir orthogonal to each other was calculated. Next various shapes, sizes and depths for the intrusion as initial conditions and boundary conditions for the calculation of heat transfer were considered. A family of numerical models which so far gives the best matches to the conditions observed in the field today have in common a funnel-shaped intrusion with a top 4km wide emplaced at a depth of 5km some 30,000 to 50,000 years ago, providing heat to the geothermal system. Numerical modelling is still in progress. Although none of the models so far computed may be a perfect match for the thermal history of the reservoir, they all indicate that the intrusive heat source is young, close and large.

Elders, W.A.; Bird, D.K.; Williams, A.E.; Schiffman, P.; Cox, B.

1982-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

320

Analyzer-based phase-contrast imaging system using a micro focus x-ray source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Here we describe a new in-laboratory analyzer based phase contrast-imaging (ABI) instrument using a conventional X-ray tube source (CXS) aimed at bio-medical imaging applications. Phase contrast-imaging allows visualization of soft tissue details usually obscured in conventional X-ray imaging. The ABI system design and major features are described in detail. The key advantage of the presented system, over the few existing CXS ABI systems, is that it does not require high precision components, i.e., CXS, X-ray detector, and electro-mechanical components. To overcome a main problem introduced by these components, identified as temperature stability, the system components are kept at a constant temperature inside of three enclosures, thus minimizing the electrical and mechanical thermal drifts. This is achieved by using thermoelectric (Peltier) cooling/heating modules that are easy to control precisely. For CXS we utilized a microfocus X-ray source with tungsten (W) anode material. In addition the proposed system eliminates tungsten's multiple spectral lines by selecting monochromator crystal size appropriately therefore eliminating need for the costly mismatched, two-crystal monochromator. The system imaging was fine-tuned for tungsten K?{sub 1} line with the energy of 59.3keV since it has been shown to be of great clinical significance by a number of researchers at synchrotron facilities. In this way a laboratory system that can be used for evaluating and quantifying tissue properties, initially explored at synchrotron facilities, would be of great interest to a larger research community. To demonstrate the imaging capability of our instrument we use a chicken thigh tissue sample.

Zhou, Wei [BME Department, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616 (United States); Majidi, Keivan; Brankov, Jovan G., E-mail: brankov@iit.edu [ECE Department, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616 (United States)

2014-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

System and method for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and method is disclosed for integrating and accessing multiple data sources within a data warehouse architecture. The metadata formed by the present method provide a way to declaratively present domain specific knowledge, obtained by analyzing data sources, in a consistent and useable way. Four types of information are represented by the metadata: abstract concepts, databases, transformations and mappings. A mediator generator automatically generates data management computer code based on the metadata. The resulting code defines a translation library and a mediator class. The translation library provides a data representation for domain specific knowledge represented in a data warehouse, including "get" and "set" methods for attributes that call transformation methods and derive a value of an attribute if it is missing. The mediator class defines methods that take "distinguished" high-level objects as input and traverse their data structures and enter information into the data warehouse.

Musick, Charles R. (Castro Valley, CA); Critchlow, Terence (Livermore, CA); Ganesh, Madhaven (San Jose, CA); Slezak, Tom (Livermore, CA); Fidelis, Krzysztof (Brentwood, CA)

2006-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

322

A compact ultra-clean system for deploying radioactive sources inside the KamLAND detector  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We describe a compact, ultra-clean device used to deploy radioactive sources along the vertical axis of the KamLAND liquid-scintillator neutrino detector for purposes of calibration. The device worked by paying out and reeling in precise lengths of a hanging, small-gauge wire rope (cable); an assortment of interchangeable radioactive sources could be attached to a weight at the end of the cable. All components exposed to the radiopure liquid scintillator were made of chemically compatible UHV-cleaned materials, primarily stainless steel, in order to avoid contaminating or degrading the scintillator. To prevent radon intrusion, the apparatus was enclosed in a hermetically sealed housing inside a glove box, and both volumes were regularly flushed with purified nitrogen gas. An infrared camera attached to the side of the housing permitted real-time visual monitoring of the cable's motion, and the system was controlled via a graphical user interface.

T. I. Banks; S. J. Freedman; J. Wallig; N. Ybarrolaza; A. Gando; Y. Gando; H. Ikeda; K. Inoue; Y. Kishimoto; M. Koga; T. Mitsui; K. Nakamura; I. Shimizu; J. Shirai; A. Suzuki; Y. Takemoto; K. Tamae; K. Ueshima; H. Watanabe; B. D. Xu; H. Yoshida; S. Yoshida; A. Kozlov; C. Grant; G. Keefer; A. Piepke; T. Bloxham; B. K. Fujikawa; K. Han; K. Ichimura; H. Murayama; T. O'Donnell; H. M. Steiner; L. A. Winslow; D. A. Dwyer; R. D. McKeown; C. Zhang; B. E. Berger; C. E. Lane; J. Maricic; T. Miletic; M. Batygov; J. G. Learned; S. Matsuno; M. Sakai; G. A. Horton-Smith; K. E. Downum; G. Gratta; Y. Efremenko; O. Perevozchikov; H. J. Karwowski; D. M. Markoff; W. Tornow; K. M. Heeger; J. A. Detwiler; S. Enomoto; M. P. Decowski

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Low-Level Radio Frequency System Development for the National Synchrotron Light Source II  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Synchrotron Light Source-II (NSLS-II) is a new ultra-bright 3GeV 3rd generation synchrotron radiation light source. The performance goals require operation with a beam current of 500mA and a bunch current of at least 0.5mA. The position and timing specifications of the ultra-bright photon beam imposes a set of stringent requirements on the performance of radio frequency (RF) control. In addition, commissioning and staged installation of damping wigglers and insertion devices requires the flexibility of handling varying beam conditions. To meet these requirements, a digital implementation of the LLRF is chosen, and digital serial links are planned for the system integration. The first prototype of the controller front-end hardware has been built, and is currently being tested.

Ma,H.; Rose, J.

2009-05-04T23:59:59.000Z

324

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

The Keg River/Winnipegosis petroleum system - Source to trap (part 2)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Keg River/Winnipegosis Formation is a heterogeneous hydrocarbon system composed of three oil families based upon gas chromatography of extracts from nine potential source rocks, six oil stained cores, and oils from fourteen Keg River/Winnipegosis fields. Family 1 - The 'pinnacle' play oils (North Alberta, South Saskatchewan, and North Dakota), together with Virago field (Southeast Alberta), comprise a locally sourced (upper Keg River/lower Muskeg/Ratner) family that exhibits a broad maturity range heavily dependent upon present burial depths and geothermal gradients. Family 2 - Oils from Utikima Lake, Peerless, Panny, and Senex fields in Alberta are a homogeneous, migrated oil sourced from the Duvernay Formation (upper Devonian). Family 3 - Oils from Temple field (North Dakota) and oil-stained carbonate cores of west-central Saskatchewan are of unknown source (possibly mixed Ordovician and Devonian or Mississippian). Long-distance (> 200 mi or > 320 km) oil migration routes through the thermally immature Keg River carbonates of Northeast Alberta were tracked by epi-fluorescence (E-F) study of 200 thin sections. Drill stem test (DST) recoveries and E-F oil shows demonstrate that oil migration extended northeast of the Senex area to the Keg River shelf margin. Oil migration along the shelf margin was southeast, oblique to regional structural dip. E-F shows in shelf margin strata continue southeast to the Cold Lake Weapon Range where a pre-Cretaceous dissolution event removed the overlying Muskeg halite seal. Porous carbonates of the Keg River shelf margin were possibly a migration route for oils sourcing the Cretaceous Athabasca oil sands overlying this dissolution area.

Kirkby, K.C. (Union Pacific Resources, Madison, WI (United States)); Tinker, S.W. (Marathon Oil Co., Littleton, CO (United States))

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal design of ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage tank in an office building Na Zhu*, Yu Lei, Pingfang Hu, Linghong Xu, Zhangning Jiang Department of Building Environment and Equipment Engineering... heat pump system integrated with phase change cooling storage technology could save energy and shift peak load. This paper studied the optimal design of a ground source heat pump system integrated with phase change thermal storage tank in an office...

Zhu, N.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

328

Primordial Black Holes as Heat Sources for Living Systems with Longest Possible Lifetimes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Just forty years ago, Hawking wrote his famous paper on primordial black holes (PBH). There have been since innumerable discussions on the consequences of the existence of such exotic objects and ramifications of their properties. Here we suggest that PBH's in an ever expanding universe (as implied by dark energy domination, especially of a cosmological constant) could be the ultimate repository for long lived living systems. PBH's having solar surface temperatures would last 10^32 years as a steady power source and should be considered in any discussion on exobiological life.

C Sivaram; Kenath Arun; Kiren O V

2014-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

329

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Source-term release formulations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is one of a series of reports that document the mathematical models in the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). Developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy, MEPAS is an integrated impact assessment software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models in air, soil, and water media. Outputs are estimates of exposures and health risk assessments for radioactive and hazardous pollutants. Each of the MEPAS formulation documents covers a major MEPAS component such as source-term, atmospheric, vadose zone/groundwater, surface water, and health exposure/health impact assessment. Other MEPAS documentation reports cover the sensitivity/uncertainty formulations and the database parameter constituent property estimation methods. The pollutant source-term release component is documented in this report. MEPAS simulates the release of contaminants from a source, transport through the air, groundwater, surface water, or overland pathways, and transfer through food chains and exposure pathways to the exposed individual or population. For human health impacts, risks are computed for carcinogens and hazard quotients for noncarcinogens. MEPAS is implemented on a desktop computer with a user-friendly interface that allows the user to define the problem, input the required data, and execute the appropriate models for both deterministic and probabilistic analyses.

Streile, G.P.; Shields, K.D.; Stroh, J.L.; Bagaasen, L.M.; Whelan, G.; McDonald, J.P.; Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

High fidelity nuclear energy system optimization towards an environmentally benign, sustainable, and secure energy source.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact associated with energy generation and utilization is immeasurable due to the immense, widespread, and myriad effects it has on the world and its inhabitants. The polar extremes are demonstrated on the one hand, by the high quality of life enjoyed by individuals with access to abundant reliable energy sources, and on the other hand by the global-scale environmental degradation attributed to the affects of energy production and use. Thus, nations strive to increase their energy generation, but are faced with the challenge of doing so with a minimal impact on the environment and in a manner that is self-reliant. Consequently, a revival of interest in nuclear energy has followed, with much focus placed on technologies for transmuting nuclear spent fuel. The performed research investigates nuclear energy systems that optimize the destruction of nuclear waste. In the context of this effort, nuclear energy system is defined as a configuration of nuclear reactors and corresponding fuel cycle components. The proposed system has unique characteristics that set it apart from other systems. Most notably the dedicated High-Energy External Source Transmuter (HEST), which is envisioned as an advanced incinerator used in combination with thermal reactors. The system is configured for examining environmentally benign fuel cycle options by focusing on minimization or elimination of high level waste inventories. Detailed high-fidelity exact-geometry models were developed for representative reactor configurations. They were used in preliminary calculations with Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtented (MCNPX) and Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code systems. The reactor models have been benchmarked against existing experimental data and design data. Simulink{reg_sign}, an extension of MATLAB{reg_sign}, is envisioned as the interface environment for constructing the nuclear energy system model by linking the individual reactor and fuel component sub-models for overall analysis of the system. It also provides control over key user input parameters and the ability to effectively consolidate vital output results for uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and optimization procedures. The preliminary analysis has shown promising advanced fuel cycle scenarios that include Pressure Water Reactors Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs) and dedicated HEST waste incineration facilities. If deployed, these scenarios may substantially reduce nuclear waste inventories approaching environmentally benign nuclear energy system characteristics. Additionally, a spent fuel database of the isotopic compositions for multiple design and control parameters has been created for the VHTR-HEST input fuel streams. Computational approaches, analysis metrics, and benchmark strategies have been established for future detailed studies.

Tsvetkov, Pavel Valeryevich (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Ames, David E., II (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Rochau, Gary Eugene

2009-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2011-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

332

A pre-feasibility study to assess the potential of Open Loop Ground Source Heat to heat and cool the proposed Earth Science Systems Building  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

............................................................1 1.2. History of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems................................................3 1.3. Components of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems..........................................3 1.4. Types of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems ................................................4 1.5. The Earth Systems Science

333

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2010-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

335

Phase loop bandwidth measurements on the advanced photon source 352 MHz rf systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Phase loop bandwidth tests were performed on the Advanced Photon Source storage ring 352-MHz rf systems. These measurements were made using the HP3563A Control Systems Analyzer, with the rf systems running at 30 kilowatts into each of the storage ring cavities, without stored beam. An electronic phase shifter was used to inject approximately 14 degrees of stimulated phase shift into the low-level rf system, which produced measureable response voltage in the feedback loops without upsetting normal rf system operation. With the PID (proportional-integral-differential) amplifier settings at the values used during accelerator operation, the measurement data revealed that the 3-dB response for the cavity sum and klystron power-phase loops is approximately 7 kHz and 45 kHz, respectively, with the cavities the primary bandwidth-limiting factor in the cavity-sum loop. Data were taken at various PID settings until the loops became unstable. Crosstalk between the two phase loops was measured.

Horan, D.; Nassiri, A.; Schwartz, C.

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Photostimulated phosphor based image plate detection system for HRVUV beamline at Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A high resolution vacuum ultraviolet (HRVUV) beamline based on a 6.65 meter off-plane Eagle spectrometer is in operation at the Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source, RRCAT, Indore, India. To facilitate position sensitive detection and fast spectral recording, a new BaFBr:Eu2+ phosphor based image plate (IP) detection system interchangeable with the existing photomultiplier (PMT) scanning system has been installed on this beamline. VUV photoabsorption studies on Xe, O2, N2O and SO2 are carried out to evaluate the performance of the IP detection system. An FWHM of ~ 0.5 {\\AA} is achieved for the Xe atomic line at 1469.6 {\\AA}. Reproducibility of spectra is found to be within the experimental resolution. Compared to the PMT scanning system, the IP shows several advantages in terms of sensitivity, recording time and S/N ratio, which are highlighted in the paper. This is the first report of incorporation of an IP detection system in a VUV beamline using synchrotron radiation. Commissioning of the new detection sys...

Haris, K; Shastri, Aparna; K., Sunanda; K., Babita; Rao, S V N Bhaskara; Ahmad, Shabbir; Tauheed, A

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Global search tool for the Advanced Photon Source Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) database.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) is a relational database tool that has been implemented at the Advanced Photon Source to maintain an updated account of approximately 600 control system software applications, 400,000 process variables, and 30,000 control system hardware components. To effectively display this large amount of control system information to operators and engineers, IRMIS was initially built with nine Web-based viewers: Applications Organizing Index, IOC, PLC, Component Type, Installed Components, Network, Controls Spares, Process Variables, and Cables. However, since each viewer is designed to provide details from only one major category of the control system, the necessity for a one-stop global search tool for the entire database became apparent. The user requirements for extremely fast database search time and ease of navigation through search results led to the choice of Asynchronous JavaScript and XML (AJAX) technology in the implementation of the IRMIS global search tool. Unique features of the global search tool include a two-tier level of displayed search results, and a database data integrity validation and reporting mechanism.

Quock, D. E. R.; Cianciarulo, M. B.; APS Engineering Support Division; Purdue Univ.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Design and dosimetric characteristics of a new endocavitary contact radiotherapy system using an electronic brachytherapy source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: To present design aspects and acceptance tests performed for clinical implementation of electronic brachytherapy treatment of early stage rectal adenocarcinoma. A dosimetric comparison is made between the historically used Philips RT-50 unit and the newly developed Axxent{sup Registered-Sign} Model S700 electronic brachytherapy source manufactured by Xoft (iCad, Inc.). Methods: Two proctoscope cones were manufactured by ElectroSurgical Instruments (ESI). Two custom surface applicators were manufactured by Xoft and were designed to fit and interlock with the proctoscope cones from ESI. Dose rates, half value layers (HVL), and percentage depth dose (PDD) measurements were made with the Xoft system and compared to historical RT-50 data. A description of the patient treatment approach and exposure rates during the procedure is also provided. Results: The electronic brachytherapy system has a lower surface dose rate than the RT-50. The dose rate to water on the surface from the Xoft system is approximately 2.1 Gy/min while the RT-50 is 10-12 Gy/min. However, treatment times with Xoft are still reasonable. The HVLs and PDDs between the two systems were comparable resulting in similar doses to the target and to regions beyond the target. The exposure rate levels around a patient treatment were acceptable. The standard uncertainty in the dose rate to water on the surface is approximately {+-}5.2%. Conclusions: The Philips RT-50 unit is an out-of-date radiotherapy machine that is no longer manufactured with limited replacement parts. The use of a custom-designed proctoscope and Xoft surface applicators allows delivery of a well-established treatment with the ease of a modern radiotherapy device. While the dose rate is lower with the use of Xoft, the treatment times are still reasonable. Additionally, personnel may stand farther away from the Xoft radiation source, thus potentially reducing radiation exposure to the operator and other personnel.

Richardson, Susan; Garcia-Ramirez, Jose; Lu Wei; Myerson, Robert J.; Parikh, Parag [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 21201 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States)

2012-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

339

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

can also degrade the quality of the storm water runoff. Monitoring and modeling studies have shown: Urbanization; Hydrologic modeling; Runoff; Non-point source pollution; GIS; Forecasting 1. Introduction behavior due to urbanization include increased lake and wetlands water levels (Calder et al., 1995

340

MPC for Wind Power Gradients --Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MPC for Wind Power Gradients -- Utilizing Forecasts, Rotor Inertia, and Central Energy Storage iterations. We demonstrate our method in simulations with various wind scenarios and prices for energy. INTRODUCTION Today, wind power is the most important renewable energy source. For the years to come, many

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

To Cope with the Uncertainity in Smart Energy Systems: Office Buildings as a Source for Energy Flexibility  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

systems at farms) will lead to a large amount of distributed and fluctuating (small) renewable energy sources throughout the grid, at homes, farms, and companies. The need of centralized electricity generation thus becomes more difficult to plan. This can...

Zieler, W.; Aduda, K.; Boxem, G.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Numerical Simulation of a Latent Heat Storage System of a Solar-Aided Ground Source Heat Pump  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this study, the rectangular phase change storage tank (PCST) linked to a solar-aided ground source heat pump (SAGSHP) system is investigated experimentally and theoretically. The container of the phase change material (PCM) is the controlling...

Wang, F.; Zheng, M.; Li, Z.; Lei, B.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

345

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

346

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

347

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra +  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra + Abstract Consider a weather forecaster predicting a probability of rain for the next day. We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster. Sandroni shows that any test

Fortnow, Lance

348

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

349

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections

350

Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

we have an evolving demand forecast. Under assumptions about the forecasts, the demand process their supply chain operations based on a forecast of future demand over some planning horizon. Furthermore stock inventory in a supply chain that is subject to a dynamic, evolving demand forecast. In particular

Graves, Stephen C.

351

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast supports the analysis and recommendations of the 2007 Integrated Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly

352

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Design progress of cryogenic hydrogen system for China Spallation Neutron Source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

China Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) is a large proton accelerator research facility with 100 kW beam power. Construction started in October 2011 and is expected to last 6.5 years. The cryogenic hydrogen circulation is cooled by a helium refrigerator with cooling capacity of 2200 W at 20 K and provides supercritical hydrogen to neutron moderating system. Important progresses of CSNS cryogenic system were concluded as follows. Firstly, process design of cryogenic system has been completed including helium refrigerator, hydrogen loop, gas distribution, and safety interlock. Secondly, an accumulator prototype was designed to mitigate pressure fluctuation caused by dynamic heat load from neutron moderation. Performance test of the accumulator has been carried out at room and liquid nitrogen temperature. Results show the accumulator with welding bellows regulates hydrogen pressure well. Parameters of key equipment have been identified. The contract for the helium refrigerator has been signed. Mechanical design of the hydrogen cold box has been completed, and the hydrogen pump, ortho-para hydrogen convertor, helium-hydrogen heat exchanger, hydrogen heater, and cryogenic valves are in procurement. Finally, Hydrogen safety interlock has been finished as well, including the logic of gas distribution, vacuum, hydrogen leakage and ventilation. Generally, design and construction of CSNS cryogenic system is conducted as expected.

Wang, G. P.; Zhang, Y.; Xiao, J.; He, C. C.; Ding, M. Y.; Wang, Y. Q.; Li, N.; He, K. [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. (China)

2014-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

354

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

355

Effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity in beta-voltaic nuclear battery system: A preliminary result  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is known that one main problem in the application of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system is its low efficiency. The efficiency of the beta-voltaic nuclear battery system mainly depends on three aspects: source of radioactive radiation, interface between materials in the system and process of converting electron-hole pair to electric current in the semiconductor material. In this work, we show the effect of geometrical configuration of radioactive sources on radiation intensity of beta-voltaic nuclear battery system.

Basar, Khairul, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Riupassa, Robi D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Bachtiar, Reza, E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id; Badrianto, Muldani D., E-mail: khbasar@fi.itb.ac.id [Nuclear Physics and Biophysics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung (Indonesia)

2014-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

356

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel

359

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

360

Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

Holzrichter, John F; Burnett, Greg C; Ng, Lawrence C

2013-05-21T23:59:59.000Z

362

System and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and method for characterizing, synthesizing, and/or canceling out acoustic signals from inanimate sound sources is disclosed. Propagating wave electromagnetic sensors monitor excitation sources in sound producing systems, such as machines, musical instruments, and various other structures. Acoustical output from these sound producing systems is also monitored. From such information, a transfer function characterizing the sound producing system is generated. From the transfer function, acoustical output from the sound producing system may be synthesized or canceled. The methods disclosed enable accurate calculation of matched transfer functions relating specific excitations to specific acoustical outputs. Knowledge of such signals and functions can be used to effect various sound replication, sound source identification, and sound cancellation applications.

Holzrichter, John F. (Berkeley, CA); Burnett, Greg C. (Livermore, CA); Ng, Lawrence C. (Danville, CA)

2007-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

363

Recent Performance of the SNS H- ion source and low-energy beam transport system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Recent measurements of the H beam current show that SNS is injecting about 55 mA into the RFQ compared to 45 mA in 2010. Since 2010, the H beam exiting the RFQ dropped from 40 mA to 34 mA, which is sufficient for 1 MW of beam power. To minimize the impact of the RFQ degradation, the service cycle of the best performing source was extended to 6 weeks. The only degradation is fluctuations in the electron dump voltage towards the end of some service cycles, a problem that is being investigated. Very recently, the RFQ was retuned, which partly restored its transmission. In addition, the electrostatic low-energy beam transport system was reengineered to double its heat sinking and equipped with a thermocouple that monitors the temperature of the ground electrode between the two Einzel lenses. The recorded data show that emissions from the source at high voltage dominate the heat load. Emissions from the partly Cs-covered first lens cause the temperature to peak several hours after starting up. On rare occasions, the temperature can also peak due to corona discharges between the center ground electrode and one of the lenses.

Stockli, Martin P [ORNL] [ORNL; Ewald, Kerry D [ORNL] [ORNL; Han, Baoxi [ORNL] [ORNL; Murray Jr, S N [ORNL] [ORNL; Pennisi, Terry R [ORNL] [ORNL; Piller, Chip [ORNL] [ORNL; Santana, Manuel [ORNL] [ORNL; Tang, Johnny Y [ORNL] [ORNL; Welton, Robert F [ORNL] [ORNL

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

The preliminary design of thermoelectric generation system using the fluid heat sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the preliminary design of a thermoelectric generation system using the fluid heat sources available as the waste heat of the phosphoric acid fuel cells. The thermoelectric generator consists of many thermoelectric generation units. For estimating the output performance of the thermoelectric generator, an equilibrium thermal circuit was derived from an analytic model of a thermoelectric generation unit. Based on the equivalent thermal circuit, the output performance at thermal equilibrium was calculated by iteration. In this paper, the output performance was estimated considering the cold side pumping power. The calculation was done by assuming a heat source temperature of about 450K on the hot side, about 310 K on the cold side, and 2,000kWth as heat exchange capacity. The electric power of the generator with a size of 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.4 (h) m{sup 3} was found to be about 70 kW and its power density, about 1.5 kW/m{sup 2} excepting the pumping power on the cold water side.

Hori, Y.; Ito, T. [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Yokosuka, Kanagawa (Japan)

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

365

Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range

367

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan

368

Analysis of Selection of Single or Double U-bend Pipes in a Ground Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The ground source heat pump (GSHP) system is widely used because of its energy-saving and environmental-friendly characteristics. The buried pipes heat exchangers play an important role in the whole GSHP system design. However, in most cases, single...

Shu, H.; Duanmu, L.; Hua, R.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen sulfide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journal of Power Sources 135 (2004) 184­191 A solid oxide fuel cell system fed with hydrogen for a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This paper presents an examination of a simple hydrogen sulfide and natural gas-fed solid oxide fuel cell system. The possibility of utilization of hydrogen sulfide

370

Integrated Heat Pump (IHP) System Development - Air-Source IHP Control Strategy and Specifications and Ground-Source IHP Conceptual Design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The integrated heat pump (IHP), as one appliance, can provide space cooling, heating, ventilation, and dehumidification while maintaining comfort and meeting domestic water heating needs in near-zero-energy home (NZEH) applications. In FY 2006 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) completed development of a control strategy and system specification for an air-source IHP. The conceptual design of a ground-source IHP was also completed. Testing and analysis confirm the potential of both IHP concepts to meet NZEH energy services needs while consuming 50% less energy than a suite of equipment that meets current minimum efficiency requirements. This report is in fulfillment of an FY06 DOE Building Technologies (BT) Joule Milestone.

Murphy, Richard W [ORNL; Rice, C Keith [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Discussion of an Optimization Scheme for the Ground Source Heat Pump System of HVAC  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

With the implementation of the global sustainable development strategy, people pay more attention to renewable energy resources such as ground source heat pumps. The technology of ground source heat pump is widely applied to heat and cold...

Mu, W.; Wang, S.; Pan, S.; Shi, Y.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in Future Power Systems: The Role of Storage  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Integrating a high share of electricity from non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources in a power supply system is a challenging task. One option considered in many studies dealing with prospective power systems is the installation of storage devices to balance the fluctuations in power production. However, it is not yet clear how soon storage devices will be needed and how the integration process depends on different storage parameters. Using long-term solar and wind energy power production data series, we present a modelling approach to investigate the influence of storage size and efficiency on the pathway towards a 100% RES scenario. Applying our approach to data for Germany, we found that up to 50% of the overall electricity demand can be met by an optimum combination of wind and solar resources without both curtailment and storage devices if the remaining energy is provided by sufficiently flexible power plants. Our findings show further that the installation of small, but highly efficient storage devic...

Weitemeyer, Stefan; Vogt, Thomas; Agert, Carsten

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

THE FIRST TARGET ION SOURCE SYSTEM FOR THE SPIRAL PROJECT: RESULTS OF THE ON LINE TESTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. This TISS is based on the coupling of a carbon external target with a permanent magnet ECR ion source called

Boyer, Edmond

374

Numerical Simulation of a Displacement Ventilation System with Multi-heat Sources and Analysis of Influential Factors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Doctor Instructor Professor The key laboratory of clean coal power generation and combustion technology of the ministry of education, southeast university College of energy sources & environment, Inner Mongolia University of Science & Technology...ICEBO2006, Shenzhen, China Maximize Comfort: Temperature, Humidity and IAQ Vol.I-7-1 Numerical Simulation of a Displacement Ventilation System with Multi-heat Sources and Analysis of Influential Factors Xuan Wu Jingfang Gao Wenfei Wu...

Wu, X.; Gao, J.; Wu, W.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Economical Analysis of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump with Water Thermal Storage System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper is based on a chilled and heat source for the building which has a total area of 140000m2 in the suburb of Beijing. By comparing the groundwater source heat pump of water thermal storage (GHPWTS) with a conventional chilled and heat source...

Zhou, Z.; Xu, W.; Li, J.; Zhao, J.; Niu, L.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

Murtagh, Fionn

377

Gaussian Processes for Short-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting Joseph Bockhorst, Chris Barber  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on this task, and attention has shifted to statistical and machine learning approaches. Among the challenges of wind energy into electrical trans- mission systems. The importance of wind forecasts for wind energy throughout a power system must be nearly in balance at all times, 2) because it depends strongly on wind

Bockhorst, Joseph

378

Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump System  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ?Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP systems.

Menart, James A. [Wright State University

2013-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

379

Recovery Act: Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report is a compilation of the work that has been done on the grant DE-EE0002805 entitled ???¢????????Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems.???¢??????? The goal of this project was to develop a detailed computer simulation tool for GSHP (ground source heat pump) heating and cooling systems. Two such tools were developed as part of this DOE (Department of Energy) grant; the first is a two-dimensional computer program called GEO2D and the second is a three-dimensional computer program called GEO3D. Both of these simulation tools provide an extensive array of results to the user. A unique aspect of both these simulation tools is the complete temperature profile information calculated and presented. Complete temperature profiles throughout the ground, casing, tube wall, and fluid are provided as a function of time. The fluid temperatures from and to the heat pump, as a function of time, are also provided. In addition to temperature information, detailed heat rate information at several locations as a function of time is determined. Heat rates between the heat pump and the building indoor environment, between the working fluid and the heat pump, and between the working fluid and the ground are computed. The heat rates between the ground and the working fluid are calculated as a function time and position along the ground loop. The heating and cooling loads of the building being fitted with a GSHP are determined with the computer program developed by DOE called ENERGYPLUS. Lastly COP (coefficient of performance) results as a function of time are provided. Both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional computer programs developed as part of this work are based upon a detailed finite volume solution of the energy equation for the ground and ground loop. Real heat pump characteristics are entered into the program and used to model the heat pump performance. Thus these computer tools simulate the coupled performance of the ground loop and the heat pump. The price paid for the three-dimensional detail is the large computational times required with GEO3D. The computational times required for GEO2D are reasonable, a few minutes for a 20 year simulation. For a similar simulation, GEO3D takes days of computational time. Because of the small simulation times with GEO2D, a number of attractive features have been added to it. GEO2D has a user friendly interface where inputs and outputs are all handled with GUI (graphical user interface) screens. These GUI screens make the program exceptionally easy to use. To make the program even easier to use a number of standard input options for the most common GSHP situations are provided to the user. For the expert user, the option still exists to enter their own detailed information. To further help designers and GSHP customers make decisions about a GSHP heating and cooling system, cost estimates are made by the program. These cost estimates include a payback period graph to show the user where their GSHP system pays for itself. These GSHP simulation tools should be a benefit to the advancement of GSHP system

James A Menart, Professor

2013-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

380

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

Paris-Sud XI, Universit de

382

Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting through Visualization of Spatial Diffusion  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting. Schuster, Stuart J. Allen, and David L. Brock Company Contact Several companies are interested in this area to implement an operational system for improving new product forecasting in practice. Is Innovative thinking

Brock, David

383

Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically. Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.

Sandholm, Thomas

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

EVIDENCE FOR MULTIPLE SOURCES OF {sup 10}Be IN THE EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Beryllium-10 is a short-lived radionuclide (t{sub 1/2} = 1.4 Myr) uniquely synthesized by spallation reactions and inferred to have been present when the solar system's oldest solids (calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions, CAIs) formed. Yet, the astrophysical site of {sup 10}Be nucleosynthesis is uncertain. We report Li-Be-B isotope measurements of CAIs from CV chondrites, including CAIs that formed with the canonical {sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al ratio of {approx}5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5} (canonical CAIs) and CAIs with Fractionation and Unidentified Nuclear isotope effects (FUN-CAIs) characterized by {sup 26}Al/{sup 27}Al ratios much lower than the canonical value. Our measurements demonstrate the presence of four distinct fossil {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be isochrons, lower in the FUN-CAIs than in the canonical CAIs, and variable within these classes. Given that FUN-CAI precursors escaped evaporation-recondensation prior to evaporative melting, we suggest that the {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratio recorded by FUN-CAIs represents a baseline level present in presolar material inherited from the protosolar molecular cloud, generated via enhanced trapping of galactic cosmic rays. The higher and possibly variable apparent {sup 10}Be/{sup 9}Be ratios of canonical CAIs reflect additional spallogenesis, either in the gaseous CAI-forming reservoir, or in the inclusions themselves: this indicates at least two nucleosynthetic sources of {sup 10}Be in the early solar system. The most promising locale for {sup 10}Be synthesis is close to the proto-Sun during its early mass-accreting stages, as these are thought to coincide with periods of intense particle irradiation occurring on timescales significantly shorter than the formation interval of canonical CAIs.

Wielandt, Daniel; Krot, Alexander N.; Bizzarro, Martin [Centre for Star and Planet Formation, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen DK-1350 (Denmark); Nagashima, Kazuhide; Huss, Gary R. [Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, HI 96822 (United States); Ivanova, Marina A. [Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO Science Run and the second and third Virgo Science Runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ~2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semi-major axes of the orbit from ~0.6e-3 ls to ~6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3e-24 at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for circular binary orbits, the upper limits obtained remain valid for orbital eccentricities as large as 0.9. In addition, upper limits are placed on continuous gravitational wave emission from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1 between 20 Hz and 57.25 Hz.

The LIGO Scientific Collaboration; the Virgo Collaboration; J. Aasi; B. P. Abbott; R. Abbott; T. Abbott; M. R. Abernathy; T. Accadia; F. Acernese; K. Ackley; C. Adams; T. Adams; P. Addesso; R. X. Adhikari; C. Affeldt; M. Agathos; N. Aggarwal; O. D. Aguiar; A. Ain; P. Ajith; A. Alemic; B. Allen; A. Allocca; D. Amariutei; M. Andersen; R. Anderson; S. B. Anderson; W. G. Anderson; K. Arai; M. C. Araya; C. Arceneaux; J. Areeda; S. M. Aston; P. Astone; P. Aufmuth; C. Aulbert; L. Austin; B. E. Aylott; S. Babak; P. T. Baker; G. Ballardin; S. W. Ballmer; J. C. Barayoga; M. Barbet; B. C. Barish; D. Barker; F. Barone; B. Barr; L. Barsotti; M. Barsuglia; M. A. Barton; I. Bartos; R. Bassiri; A. Basti; J. C. Batch; J. Bauchrowitz; Th. S. Bauer; B. Behnke; M. Bejger; M. G. Beker; C. Belczynski; A. S. Bell; C. Bell; G. Bergmann; D. Bersanetti; A. Bertolini; J. Betzwieser; P. T. Beyersdorf; I. A. Bilenko; G. Billingsley; J. Birch; S. Biscans; M. Bitossi; M. A. Bizouard; E. Black; J. K. Blackburn; L. Blackburn; D. Blair; S. Bloemen; M. Blom; O. Bock; T. P. Bodiya; M. Boer; G. Bogaert; C. Bogan; C. Bond; F. Bondu; L. Bonelli; R. Bonnand; R. Bork; M. Born; V. Boschi; Sukanta Bose; L. Bosi; C. Bradaschia; P. R. Brady; V. B. Braginsky; M. Branchesi; J. E. Brau; T. Briant; D. O. Bridges; A. Brillet; M. Brinkmann; V. Brisson; A. F. Brooks; D. A. Brown; D. D. Brown; F. Brckner; S. Buchman; T. Bulik; H. J. Bulten; A. Buonanno; R. Burman; D. Buskulic; C. Buy; L. Cadonati; G. Cagnoli; J. Caldern Bustillo; E. Calloni; J. B. Camp; P. Campsie; K. C. Cannon; B. Canuel; J. Cao; C. D. Capano; F. Carbognani; L. Carbone; S. Caride; A. Castiglia; S. Caudill; M. Cavagli; F. Cavalier; R. Cavalieri; C. Celerier; G. Cella; C. Cepeda; E. Cesarini; R. Chakraborty; T. Chalermsongsak; S. J. Chamberlin; S. Chao; P. Charlton; E. Chassande-Mottin; X. Chen; Y. Chen; A. Chincarini; A. Chiummo; H. S. Cho; J. Chow; N. Christensen; Q. Chu; S. S. Y. Chua; S. Chung; G. Ciani; F. Clara; J. A. Clark; F. Cleva; E. Coccia; P. -F. Cohadon; A. Colla; C. Collette; M. Colombini; L. Cominsky; M. Constancio Jr.; A. Conte; D. Cook; T. R. Corbitt; M. Cordier; N. Cornish; A. Corpuz; A. Corsi; C. A. Costa; M. W. Coughlin; S. Coughlin; J. -P. Coulon; S. Countryman; P. Couvares; D. M. Coward; M. Cowart; D. C. Coyne; R. Coyne; K. Craig; J. D. E. Creighton; T. D. Creighton; S. G. Crowder; A. Cumming; L. Cunningham; E. Cuoco; K. Dahl; T. Dal Canton; M. Damjanic; S. L. Danilishin; S. D'Antonio; K. Danzmann; V. Dattilo; H. Daveloza; M. Davier; G. S. Davies; E. J. Daw; R. Day; T. Dayanga; G. Debreczeni; J. Degallaix; S. Delglise; W. Del Pozzo; T. Denker; T. Dent; H. Dereli; V. Dergachev; R. De Rosa; R. T. DeRosa; R. DeSalvo; S. Dhurandhar; M. Daz; L. Di Fiore; A. Di Lieto; I. Di Palma; A. Di Virgilio; A. Donath; F. Donovan; K. L. Dooley; S. Doravari; S. Dossa; R. Douglas; T. P. Downes; M. Drago; R. W. P. Drever; J. C. Driggers; Z. Du; S. Dwyer; T. Eberle; T. Edo; M. Edwards; A. Effler; H. Eggenstein; P. Ehrens; J. Eichholz; S. S. Eikenberry; G. Endr?czi; R. Essick; T. Etzel; M. Evans; T. Evans; M. Factourovich; V. Fafone; S. Fairhurst; Q. Fang; S. Farinon; B. Farr; W. M. Farr; M. Favata; H. Fehrmann; M. M. Fejer; D. Feldbaum; F. Feroz; I. Ferrante; F. Ferrini; F. Fidecaro; L. S. Finn; I. Fiori; R. P. Fisher; R. Flaminio; J. -D. Fournier; S. Franco; S. Frasca; F. Frasconi; M. Frede; Z. Frei; A. Freise; R. Frey; T. T. Fricke; P. Fritschel; V. V. Frolov; P. Fulda; M. Fyffe; J. Gair; L. Gammaitoni; S. Gaonkar; F. Garufi; N. Gehrels; G. Gemme; E. Genin; A. Gennai; S. Ghosh; J. A. Giaime; K. D. Giardina; A. Giazotto; C. Gill; J. Gleason; E. Goetz; R. Goetz; L. Gondan; G. Gonzlez; N. Gordon; M. L. Gorodetsky; S. Gossan; S. Goler; R. Gouaty; C. Grf; P. B. Graff; M. Granata; A. Grant; S. Gras; C. Gray; R. J. S. Greenhalgh; A. M. Gretarsson; P. Groot; H. Grote; K. Grover; S. Grunewald; G. M. Guidi; C. Guido; K. Gushwa; E. K. Gustafson; R. Gustafson; D. Hammer; G. Hammond; M. Hanke; J. Hanks; C. Hanna; J. Hanson; J. Harms; G. M. Harry; I. W. Harry; E. D. Harstad; M. Hart; M. T. Hartman; C. -J. Haster; K. Haughian; A. Heidmann; M. Heintze; H. Heitmann; P. Hello; G. Hemming; M. Hendry; I. S. Heng; A. W. Heptonstall; M. Heurs; M. Hewitson; S. Hild; D. Hoak; K. A. Hodge; K. Holt; S. Hooper; P. Hopkins; D. J. Hosken; J. Hough; E. J. Howell; Y. Hu; E. Huerta; B. Hughey; S. Husa; S. H. Huttner; M. Huynh; T. Huynh-Dinh; D. R. Ingram; R. Inta; T. Isogai; A. Ivanov; B. R. Iyer; K. Izumi; M. Jacobson; E. James; H. Jang; P. Jaranowski; Y. Ji; F. Jimnez-Forteza; W. W. Johnson; D. I. Jones; R. Jones; R. J. G. Jonker; L. Ju; Haris K; P. Kalmus; V. Kalogera; S. Kandhasamy; G. Kang; J. B. Kanner; J. Karlen; M. Kasprzack; E. Katsavounidis; W. Katzman; H. Kaufer; K. Kawabe; F. Kawazoe; F. Kflian; G. M. Keiser; D. Keitel; D. B. Kelley; W. Kells; A. Khalaidovski

2014-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

386

Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economists Gold Price Forecasts, Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold

Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Finite Volume Based Computer Program for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Project objective: Create a new modeling decision? tool that will enable ground source heat pump (GSHP) designers and customers to make better design and purchasing decisions.

388

Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

Datta, Shoumen

2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

389

Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

Chevis, Gia Marie

2004-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

390

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

391

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

393

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Design of interferometer system for Keda Torus eXperiment using terahertz solid-state diode sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A solid-state source based terahertz (THz) interferometer diagnostic system has been designed and characterized for the Keda Torus eXperiment (KTX). The THz interferometer utilizes the planar diodes based frequency multiplier (X48) to provide the probing beam at fixed frequency 0.650 THz, and local oscillator is provided by an independent solid-state diode source with tunable frequency (0.650 THz +/? 10 MHz). Both solid-state sources have approximately 1 mW power. The planar-diode mixers optimized for high sensitivity, ?750 mV/mW, are used in the heterodyne detection system, which permits multichannel interferometer on KTX with a low phase noise. A sensitivity of {sub min} = 4.5 10{sup 16} m{sup ?2} and a temporal resolution of 0.2 ?s have been achieved during the initial bench test.

Xie, Jinlin, E-mail: jlxie@ustc.edu.cn; Wang, Haibo; Li, Hong; Lan, Tao; Liu, Adi; Liu, Wandong; Yu, Changxuan [School of Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Ding, Weixing [School of Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); University of California-Los Angeles, P. O. Box 957099, Los Angeles, California 90095-7099 (United States)

2014-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

395

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

396

TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

397

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal

Washington at Seattle, University of

398

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the NN5 Time Series Forecasting competition Robert R. Andrawis Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt robertrezk@eg.ibm.com November 6, 2010 Abstract In this work we introduce a forecasting model with which we participated

Atiya, Amir

399

GET your forecast at the click of a button.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast

Greenslade, Diana

400

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination Xiongqing Zhang Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from

Cao, Quang V.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans

Steenburgh, Jim

402

Earnings forecast bias -a statistical analysis Franois Dossou  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis François Dossou Sandrine Lardic** Karine Michalon' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

403

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta*  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta* Department of Economics Bayesian and classical methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition-sample period and January 1990 to March 2009 as the out-of- sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance

Ahmad, Sajjad

404

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China Presenter: Zhifeng Hao can be divided into load forecasting and electrical consumption predicting according to forecasting in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and so on. And the prediction is from one day to seven

405

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

406

Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

407

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

408

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

409

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption

410

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff in the Demand Analysis. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data

411

Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing

412

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

McBurney, Peter

413

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services Peter McBurney and Simon.j.mcburney,s.d.parsonsg@elec.qmw.ac.uk Abstract. This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service

McBurney, Peter

414

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

415

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

416

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

Perez, Richard R.

417

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Modeling of Standing Column Wells in Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Zheng Deng O'Neill, Ph.D., P.E.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Modeling of Standing Column Wells in Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Zheng Deng O'Neill, Ph.D., P Montfort University, Leicester, United Kingdom 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, ground source heat pump-surface environment: · Ground-coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems (Closed-loop) · Surface water heat pump (SWHP) systems

419

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

422

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia. FURTHER INFORMATION: www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 From © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Australia Coastal Waters Zones

Greenslade, Diana

423

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

424

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

425

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surface. In this paper, a case is presented for which the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) HIRLAM

Stoffelen, Ad

426

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

427

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

428

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

429

Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been to develop a generic model for summarisation of time series data. Initially, we have applied standard

Sripada, Yaji

430

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

431

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

432

Getting ahead in sourcing through benchmarking and system dynamic analysis : an aerospace industry perspective  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sourcing and purchasing have received renewed attention recently as many supply chains challenge themselves to meet cost reduction goals. These challenges are especially apparent in the high-mix, low volume, and often ...

Chang, Yue (Yue Cathy)

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Life cycle assessment of UK pig production systems: the impact of dietary protein source  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was developed to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing 1 kg pig live weight. A comparison was made between dietary protein sources, i.e. imported soybean meal with the UK protein ...

Stephen, Katie Louise

2012-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

434

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

436

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. The current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.

NONE

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

438

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

439

European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

440

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Conceptual Design, Implementation and Commissioning of Data Acquisition and Control System for Negative Ion Source at IPR  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Negative ion Experimental facility has been setup at IPR. The facility consists of a RF based negative ion source (ROBIN)--procured under a license agreement with IPP Garching, as a replica of BATMAN, presently operating in IPP, 100 kW 1 MHz RF generators and a set of low and high voltage power supplies, vacuum system and diagnostics. 35 keV 10A H- beam is expected from this setup. Automated successful operation of the system requires an advanced, rugged, time proven and flexible control system. Further the data generated in the experimental phase needs to be acquired, monitored and analyzed to verify and judge the system performance. In the present test bed, this is done using a combination of PLC based control system and a PXI based data acquisition system. The control system consists of three different Siemens PLC systems viz. (1) S-7 400 PLC as a Master Control, (2) S-7 300 PLC for Vacuum system control and (3) C-7 PLC for RF generator control. Master control PLC directly controls all the subsystems except the Vacuum system and RF generator. The Vacuum system and RF generator have their own dedicated PLCs (S-7 300 and C-7 respectively). Further, these two PLC systems work as a slave for the Master control PLC system. Communication between PLC S-7 400, S-7 300 and central control room computer is done through Industrial Ethernet (IE). Control program and GUI are developed in Siemens Step-7 PLC programming software and Wincc SCADA software, respectively. There are approximately 150 analog and 200 digital control and monitoring signals required to perform complete closed loop control of the system. Since the source floats at high potential ({approx}35 kV); a combination of galvanic and fiber optic isolation has been implemented. PXI based Data Acquisition system (DAS) is a combination of PXI RT (Real time) system, front end signal conditioning electronics, host system and DAQ program. All the acquisition signals coming from various sub-systems are connected and acquired by the PXI RT system, through only fiber optics link for signal conditioning, electrical isolation and better noise immunity. Real time and Host application programs are developed in LabVIEW and the data shall be stored with a facility of online display of selected parameters. Mathematical calculations and report generation will take place at the end of each beam shot. The paper describes in detail about the design approach, implementation strategy, program development, commissioning and operational test result of ROBIN through a data acquisition and control system.

Soni, Jignesh; Gahlaut, A.; Bansal, G.; Parmar, K. G.; Pandya, K.; Chakraborty, A. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar (Gujarat) 382 428 (India); Yadav, Ratnakar; Singh, M. J.; Bandyopadhyay, M. [ITER-India, Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar (Gujarat) 382 025 (India)

2011-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

442

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

443

A dual neutron/gamma source for the Fissmat Inspection for Nuclear Detection (FIND) system.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Shielded special nuclear material (SNM) is very difficult to detect and new technologies are needed to clear alarms and verify the presence of SNM. High-energy photons and neutrons can be used to actively interrogate for heavily shielded SNM, such as highly enriched uranium (HEU), since neutrons can penetrate gamma-ray shielding and gamma-rays can penetrate neutron shielding. Both source particles then induce unique detectable signals from fission. In this LDRD, we explored a new type of interrogation source that uses low-energy proton- or deuteron-induced nuclear reactions to generate high fluxes of mono-energetic gammas or neutrons. Accelerator-based experiments, computational studies, and prototype source tests were performed to obtain a better understanding of (1) the flux requirements, (2) fission-induced signals, background, and interferences, and (3) operational performance of the source. The results of this research led to the development and testing of an axial-type gamma tube source and the design/construction of a high power coaxial-type gamma generator based on the {sup 11}B(p,{gamma}){sup 12}C nuclear reaction.

Doyle, Barney Lee (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); King, Michael; Rossi, Paolo (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); McDaniel, Floyd Del (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Morse, Daniel Henry; Antolak, Arlyn J.; Provencio, Paula Polyak (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Raber, Thomas N.

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Luminescent light source for laser pumping and laser system containing same  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

The invention relates to a pumping lamp for use with lasers comprising a porous substrate loaded with a component capable of emitting light upon interaction of the component with exciting radiation and a source of exciting radiation. Preferably, the pumping lamp comprises a source of exciting radiation, such as an electron beam, and an aerogel or xerogel substrate loaded with a component capable of interacting with the exciting radiation, e.g., a phosphor, to produce light, e.g., visible light, of a suitable band width and of a sufficient intensity to generate a laser beam from a laser material.

Hamil, Roy A. (Tijeras, NM); Ashley, Carol S. (Albuquerque, NM); Brinker, C. Jeffrey (Albuquerque, NM); Reed, Scott (Albuquerque, NM); Walko, Robert J. (Albuquerque, NM)

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

Analysis of Energy and Soft Dirt in an Urban Untreated Sewage Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

When using urban untreated sewage as a cool and heat source of heat pump, it is unavoidable to form soft dirt. Based on the method of exergy, an analysis is given of the impact the dirt growth of a tube-shell sewage heat exchanger will have...

Qian, J.; Sun, D.; Li, X.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Journal of Power Sources 134 (2004) 130138 Performance optimization of a batterycapacitor hybrid system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-ion battery with commercial super capacitors using impedance measurement were car- ried out by Chu and BraatzJournal of Power Sources 134 (2004) 130­138 Performance optimization of a battery­capacitor hybrid, the pulse frequency and design parameters (the capacitor configuration index) on the performance

Popov, Branko N.

448

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

449

Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography source  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Flexible CO2 laser system for fundamental research related to an extreme ultraviolet lithography 2009; published online 10 December 2009 A CO2 laser system with flexible parameters was developed 1010 W/cm2 . Utilizing this CO2 MOPA laser system, high conversion efficiency from laser to in-band 2

Najmabadi, Farrokh

450

Thirty-year solid waste generation forecast for facilities at SRS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The information supplied by this 30-year solid waste forecast has been compiled as a source document to the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (WMEIS). The WMEIS will help to select a sitewide strategic approach to managing present and future Savannah River Site (SRS) waste generated from ongoing operations, environmental restoration (ER) activities, transition from nuclear production to other missions, and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) programs. The EIS will support project-level decisions on the operation of specific treatment, storage, and disposal facilities within the near term (10 years or less). In addition, the EIS will provide a baseline for analysis of future waste management activities and a basis for the evaluation of the specific waste management alternatives. This 30-year solid waste forecast will be used as the initial basis for the EIS decision-making process. The Site generates and manages many types and categories of waste. With a few exceptions, waste types are divided into two broad groups-high-level waste and solid waste. High-level waste consists primarily of liquid radioactive waste, which is addressed in a separate forecast and is not discussed further in this document. The waste types discussed in this solid waste forecast are sanitary waste, hazardous waste, low-level mixed waste, low-level radioactive waste, and transuranic waste. As activities at SRS change from primarily production to primarily decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration, the volume of each waste s being managed will change significantly. This report acknowledges the changes in Site Missions when developing the 30-year solid waste forecast.

Not Available

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administrationcontroller systemsBiSiteNeutron Scattering4 ByWatchingStateAbout Us

452

Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to remain competitive, it is necessary to stay informed and use the most advanced technologies available. Recent developments in communication, like the Internet and the World Wide Web, enormously facilitate worldwide data and technology transfer. A compilation of the most important sources of data on renewable energies, especially geothermal, as well as lists of relevant technology transfer programs are presented. Information on how to gain access to, and learn more about them, is also given.

Lippmann, M.J.; Antunez, E.

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Information systems and technology transfer programs on geothermal energy and other renewable sources of energy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to remain competitive it is necessary to stay informed and use the most advanced technologies available. Recent developments in communication, like the Internet and the World Wide Web, enormously facilitate worldwide data and technology transfer. A compilation of the most important sources of data on renewable energies, especially geothermal, as well as lists of relevant technology transfer programs are presented. Information on how to gain access to, and learn more about them is also given.

Lippmann, Marcelo J.; Antunez, Emilio u.

1996-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

454

In-situ X-ray diffraction system using sources and detectors at fixed angular positions  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

An x-ray diffraction technique for measuring a known characteristic of a sample of a material in an in-situ state. The technique includes using an x-ray source for emitting substantially divergent x-ray radiation--with a collimating optic disposed with respect to the fixed source for producing a substantially parallel beam of x-ray radiation by receiving and redirecting the divergent paths of the divergent x-ray radiation. A first x-ray detector collects radiation diffracted from the sample; wherein the source and detector are fixed, during operation thereof, in position relative to each other and in at least one dimension relative to the sample according to a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample. A second x-ray detector may be fixed relative to the first x-ray detector according to the a-priori knowledge about the known characteristic of the sample, especially in a phase monitoring embodiment of the present invention.

Gibson, David M. (Voorheesville, NY); Gibson, Walter M. (Voorheesville, NY); Huang, Huapeng (Latham, NY)

2007-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

455

LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

456

Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix D ECONOMIC AND DEMAND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AND DEMAND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Role of the Demand Forecast A demand forecast of at least 20 years is one of the explicit requirements of the Northwest Power Act. A demand forecast is, of course analysis. Because the future is inherently uncertain, the Council forecasts a range of future demand levels

457

DIRECT: A System for Mining Data Value Conversion Rules from Disparate Data Sources  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The successful integration of data from autonomous and heterogeneous systems calls for the resolution of semantic conflicts that may be present. Such conflicts are often ...

Fan, Weiguo

2003-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

458

Study on The Intelligence Control System of Artificial Cooling Source in Architecture  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. In the system, MPI channel was used to communicate between PLC and PC, and WINCC was used for the man-machine conversation....

Yang, Z.; Xu, X.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

System and method for investigating sub-surface features of a rock formation with acoustic sources generating coded signals  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and a method for investigating rock formations includes generating, by a first acoustic source, a first acoustic signal comprising a first plurality of pulses, each pulse including a first modulated signal at a central frequency; and generating, by a second acoustic source, a second acoustic signal comprising a second plurality of pulses. A receiver arranged within the borehole receives a detected signal including a signal being generated by a non-linear mixing process from the first-and-second acoustic signal in a non-linear mixing zone within the intersection volume. The method also includes-processing the received signal to extract the signal generated by the non-linear mixing process over noise or over signals generated by a linear interaction process, or both.

Vu, Cung Khac; Nihei, Kurt; Johnson, Paul A; Guyer, Robert; Ten Cate, James A; Le Bas, Pierre-Yves; Larmat, Carene S

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

460

Sensitivity calibration of an imaging extreme ultraviolet spectrometer-detector system for determining the efficiency of broadband extreme ultraviolet sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We report on the absolute sensitivity calibration of an extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer system that is frequently employed to study emission from short-pulse laser experiments. The XUV spectrometer, consisting of a toroidal mirror and a transmission grating, was characterized at a synchrotron source in respect of the ratio of the detected to the incident photon flux at photon energies ranging from 15.5 eV to 99 eV. The absolute calibration allows the determination of the XUV photon number emitted by laser-based XUV sources, e.g., high-harmonic generation from plasma surfaces or in gaseous media. We have demonstrated high-harmonic generation in gases and plasma surfaces providing 2.3 {mu}W and {mu}J per harmonic using the respective generation mechanisms.

Fuchs, S.; Roedel, C.; Bierbach, J.; Paz, A. E.; Foerster, E.; Paulus, G. G. [Institute of Optics und Quantum Electronics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Helmholtz-Institute Jena (Germany); Krebs, M. [Institute of Applied Physics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Haedrich, S.; Limpert, J. [Helmholtz-Institute Jena (Germany); Institute of Applied Physics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany); Kuschel, S.; Wuensche, M.; Hilbert, V.; Zastrau, U. [Institute of Optics und Quantum Electronics, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena (Germany)

2013-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Interaction of plasmas in laser ion source with double laser system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Multiple laser shots could be used to elongate an ion beam pulse width or to intensify beam current from laser ion sources. In order to confirm the feasibility of the multiple shot scheme, we investigated the properties of plasmas produced by double laser shots. We found that when the interval of the laser shots is shorter than 10 ?s, the ion current profile had a prominent peak, which is not observed in single laser experiments. The height of this peak was up to five times larger than that of single laser experiment.

Fuwa, Y., E-mail: yasuhiro.fuwa@riken.jp [Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Ikeda, S. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Tokyo (Japan); Kumaki, M. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Tokyo (Japan); Sekine, M. [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan) [Riken, Wako, Saitama (Japan); Department of Nuclear Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro, Tokyo (Japan); Cinquegrani, D. [Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States)] [Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States); Romanelli, M. [School of Applied and Engineering Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States)] [School of Applied and Engineering Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850 (United States); Kanesue, T.; Okamura, M. [Collider-Accelerator Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States)] [Collider-Accelerator Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York 11973 (United States); Iwashita, Y. [Institute for Chemical Research, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto (Japan)] [Institute for Chemical Research, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto (Japan)

2014-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

462

Analysis and Implementation of an Orientation-Aware Source Localization System with Smart Devices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to thank the rest of my committee members, and the faculty and staff of the Department of Electrical Engineering at Texas A&M University. I must recognize the support of the Panamanian Government through the Profes- sional Excellence Scholarship Program... the Android API and the relative orientation with respect to the source ?, the proper argument to Ga(). . . . . . . . . . 23 4.1 This plot shows the antenna gain (dBm) as a function of azimuth angle for two smartphone models (E?-polarization, ? = 90?, 0? < ?...

Tunon Coronado, Daniel Antonio

2014-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

463

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource February 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource February 2014 January...

465

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource April 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource April 2014 March 2015 Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry)...

466

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Preference Month CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource May 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource May 2014 April...

467

Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

based on Green Book ("Above Normal") values. Base Resource March 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource March 2014 February 2015 Exceedence Level: 90%...

468

analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

469

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind...

470

Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

Gordon, Geoffrey J.

473

The Application of Frequency-Conversion Technology in Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Reconstruction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Deep well pump power is relatively ubiquitous in the groundwater heat pump air-conditioning system in some hotels in Hunan, and the heat pump usually meets the change of the load by throttling. Therefore, frequency conversion technology is proposed...

Dai, X.; Song, S.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

First all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown sources in binary systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect ...

Aggarwal, Nancy

475

Source and Extraction for Simultaneous Four-hall Beam Delivery System at CEBAF  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A new design for simultaneous delivery of the electron beam to all four 12 GeV CEBAF experimental halls* requires a new 750 MHz RF separator system in the 5th pass extraction region, a 250 MHz repetition rate for its beams, and addition of a fourth laser at the photo-cathode gun. The proposed system works in tandem with the existing 500 MHz RF separators and beam repetition rate on the lower passes. The new 5th pass RF separators will have the same basic design but modified to run at 750 MHz. The change to the beam repetition rate will be at the photo-cathode gun through an innovative upgrade of the seed laser driver system using electro-optic modulators. The new laser system also allows addition of the fourth laser. The new RF separators, the new laser system and other hardware changes required to implement the Four-Hall operation delivery system will be discussed in this paper.

Kazimi, Reza; Wang, Haipeng; Spata, Mike F.; Hansknecht, John C.

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned andof goods as well as to forecast the expected future truckused for the short-term forecasts of freight volumes on

Chow, Joseph Y.; Yang, Choon Heon; Regan, Amelia C.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

revisions to the EIAs natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller Abstract We present an electricity demand forecasting algorithm based on Gaussian processes. By introducing. Introduction Electricity demand forecasting is an important aspect of the control and scheduling of power

Teschner, Matthias

480

Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system sources" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

Wickham, Richard Robert

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

PARAMETRIC STUDY OF GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMP SYSTEM FOR HOT AND HUMID CLMATE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U-tube sizes and varied thermal conductivity with different grout materials are studied based on the benchmark residential building in Hot-humid Pensacola, Florida. In this study, the benchmark building is metered and the data is used to validate the simulation model. And a list of comparative simulation cases with varied parameter value are simulated to study the importance of pipe size and grout to the ground source heat pump energy consumption. The simulation software TRNSYS [1] is employed to fulfill this task. The results show the preliminary energy saving based on varied parameters. Future work needs to be conducted for the cost analysis, include the installation cost from contractor and materials cost.

Jiang Zhu; Yong X. Tao

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Technical Feasibility Study for Deployment of Ground-Source Heat Pump Systems: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard -- Kittery, Maine  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, in accordance with the RE-Powering America's Lands initiative, engaged the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct feasibility studies to assess the viability of developing renewable energy generating facilities on contaminated sites. Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNSY) is a United States Navy facility located on a series of conjoined islands in the Piscataqua River between Kittery, ME and Portsmouth, NH. EPA engaged NREL to conduct a study to determine technical feasibility of deploying ground-source heat pump systems to help PNSY achieve energy reduction goals.

Hillesheim, M.; Mosey, G.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Counter-facing plasma focus system as a repetitive and/or long-pulse high energy density plasma source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A plasma focus system composed of a pair of counter-facing coaxial plasma guns is proposed as a long-pulse and/or repetitive high energy density plasma source. A proof-of-concept experiment demonstrated that with an assist of breakdown and outer electrode connections, current sheets evolved into a configuration for stable plasma confinement at the center of the electrodes. The current sheets could successively compress and confine the high energy density plasma every half period of the discharge current, enabling highly repetitive light emissions in extreme ultraviolet region with time durations in at least ten microseconds.

Aoyama, Yutaka; Nakajima, Mitsuo; Horioka, Kazuhiko [Department of Energy Sciences, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502 (Japan)

2009-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

485

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of EnergyEnergyENERGYWomen Owned SmallOf TheViolations | Department of EnergyisWilliamForecasting

486

Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST31 ORV 15051SoilWind Energy Wind RenewableForecast

487

Forecast calls for better models | EMSL  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickr Flickr Editor's note: Since theNational SupplementalFor theForecast

488

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecasting

489

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecastingResearch

490

P h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast Improvement  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableP h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems, and alternate deployments of existing

491

The Well-Group Distribution of Groundwater Source Heat Pump System Optimized Research  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

It is the key question that how does the well group arrange for application of GWSHP system. Based on the fact that the water movement is the important factor of heat transfer on aquifer, this paper presents two steps analysis method and analyze...

Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Optimal Well-Group Distribution of a Groundwater Source Heat Pump System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

It is critical to determine how the well group arranges for application of the GWSHP system. Based on the fact that water movement is the most important factor influencing heat transfer in an aquifer, this paper presents a two-step analysis method...

Liu, Z.; Lu, L.; Yoshida, H.

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Tagged Neutron Source for API Inspection Systems with Greatly Enhanced Spatial Resolution  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We recently developed induced fission and transmission imaging methods with time- and directionally-tagged neutrons offer new capabilities for characterization of fissile material configurations and enhanced detection of special nuclear materials (SNM). An Advanced Associated Particle Imaging (API) generator with higher angular resolution and neutron yield than existing systems is needed to fully exploit these methods.

None

2012-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

494

Advanced Soldier Thermoelectric Power System for Power Generation from Battlefield Heat Sources  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. military uses large amounts of fuel during deployments and battlefield operations. This project sought to develop a lightweight, small form-factor, soldier-portable advanced thermoelectric (TE) system prototype to recover and convert waste heat from various deployed military equipment (i.e., diesel generators/engines, incinerators, vehicles, and potentially mobile kitchens), with the ultimate purpose of producing power for soldier battery charging, advanced capacitor charging, and other battlefield power applications. The technical approach employed microchannel technology, a unique power panel approach to heat exchange/TE system integration, and newly-characterized LAST (lead-antimony-silver-telluride) and LASTT (lead-antimony-silver-tin-telluride) TE materials segmented with bismuth telluride TE materials in designing a segmented-element TE power module and system. This project researched never-before-addressed system integration challenges (thermal expansion, thermal diffusion, electrical interconnection, thermal and electrical interfaces) of designing thin power panels consisting of alternating layers of thin, microchannel heat exchangers (hot and cold) sandwiching thin, segmented-element TE power generators. The TE properties, structurally properties, and thermal fatigue behavior of LAST and LASTT materials were developed and characterized such that the first segmented-element TE modules using LAST / LASTT materials were fabricated and tested at hot-side temperatures = 400 C and cold-side temperatures = 40 C. LAST / LASTT materials were successfully segmented with bismuth telluride and electrically interconnected with diffusion barrier materials and copper strapping within the module electrical circuit. A TE system design was developed to produce 1.5-1.6 kW of electrical energy using these new TE modules from the exhaust waste heat of 60-kW Tactical Quiet Generators as demonstration vehicles.

Hendricks, Terry J.; Hogan, Tim; Case, Eldon D.; Cauchy, Charles J.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

UNDERSTANDING METHANE EMISSIONS SOURCES AND VIABLE MITIGATION MEASURES IN THE NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS: RUSSIAN AND U.S. EXPERIENCE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This article will compare the natural gas transmission systems in the U.S. and Russia and review experience with methane mitigation technologies in the two countries. Russia and the United States (U.S.) are the world's largest consumers and producers of natural gas, and consequently, have some of the largest natural gas infrastructure. This paper compares the natural gas transmission systems in Russia and the U.S., their methane emissions and experiences in implementing methane mitigation technologies. Given the scale of the two systems, many international oil and natural gas companies have expressed interest in better understanding the methane emission volumes and trends as well as the methane mitigation options. This paper compares the two transmission systems and documents experiences in Russia and the U.S. in implementing technologies and programs for methane mitigation. The systems are inherently different. For instance, while the U.S. natural gas transmission system is represented by many companies, which operate pipelines with various characteristics, in Russia predominately one company, Gazprom, operates the gas transmission system. However, companies in both countries found that reducing methane emissions can be feasible and profitable. Examples of technologies in use include replacing wet seals with dry seals, implementing Directed Inspection and Maintenance (DI&M) programs, performing pipeline pump-down, applying composite wrap for non-leaking pipeline defects and installing low-bleed pneumatics. The research methodology for this paper involved a review of information on methane emissions trends and mitigation measures, analytical and statistical data collection; accumulation and analysis of operational data on compressor seals and other emission sources; and analysis of technologies used in both countries to mitigate methane emissions in the transmission sector. Operators of natural gas transmission systems have many options to reduce natural gas losses. Depending on the value of gas, simple, low-cost measures, such as adjusting leaking equipment components, or larger-scale measures, such as installing dry seals on compressors, can be applied.

Ishkov, A.; Akopova, Gretta; Evans, Meredydd; Yulkin, Grigory; Roshchanka, Volha; Waltzer, Suzie; Romanov, K.; Picard, David; Stepanenko, O.; Neretin, D.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Creating an EPICS Based Test Stand Development System for a BPM Digitizer of the Linac Coherent Light Source  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) is required to deliver a high quality electron beam for producing coherent X-rays. As a result, high resolution beam position monitoring is required. The Beam Position Monitor (BPM) digitizer acquires analog signals from the beam line and digitizes them to obtain beam position data. Although Matlab is currently being used to test the BPM digitizer?s functions and capability, the Controls Department at SLAC prefers to use Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS). This paper discusses the transition of providing similar as well as enhanced functionalities, than those offered by Matlab, to test the digitizer. Altogether, the improved test stand development system can perform mathematical and statistical calculations with the waveform signals acquired from the digitizer and compute the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of the signals. Finally, logging of meaningful data into files has been added.

Not Available

2011-06-22T23:59:59.000Z

497

System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using a low power laser source  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

Graves, Steven W; Habbersett, Robert C

2013-10-22T23:59:59.000Z

498

System and method for measuring particles in a sample stream of a flow cytometer using low-power laser source  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system and method for analyzing a particle in a sample stream of a flow cytometer or the like. The system has a light source, such as a laser pointer module, for generating a low powered light beam and a fluidics apparatus which is configured to transport particles in the sample stream at substantially low velocity through the light beam for interrogation. Detectors, such as photomultiplier tubes, are configured to detect optical signals generated in response to the light beam impinging the particles. Signal conditioning circuitry is connected to each of the detectors to condition each detector output into electronic signals for processing and is designed to have a limited frequency response to filter high frequency noise from the detector output signals.

Graves, Steven W.; Habbersett, Robert C.

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

IMPACTS OF ADVANCE DEMAND INFORMATION IN MULTI-CLASS PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

coming from an MRP system. They consider demand forecasts as advance demand information. The accuracy a capacitated forecasting-production-inventory system with a stationary demand process and forecast updates1 IMPACTS OF ADVANCE DEMAND INFORMATION IN MULTI-CLASS PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS Seda Tepe

Karaesmen, Fikri

500

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z