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1

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

5

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

8

Model documentation: electricity market module. [15 year forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This report documents the electricity market model. This model is a component of the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), the energy market model used to provide projections of energy markets up to 15 years into the future. The electricity market model was developed by the Supply Analysis and Integration Branch as part of building the larger system. This report is written for an audience consisting of mathematical economists, statisticians, operations research analysts, and utility planners. This report contains an overview and a mathematical specification of the electricity market module. It includes a description of the model logic and the individual subroutines in the computer code. A companion document Intermediate Future Forecasting System: Executive Summary (DOE/EIA-430) provides an overview of the components in IFFS and their linkages. 22 figures, 2 tables.

Sanders, R.C.; Murphy, F.H.

1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquías Peña Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

10

NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical seasonal forecast system is described in detail. The new system is aimed at a next-generation numerical seasonal prediction in which focus is placed on land processes, initial ...

Masao Kanamitsu; Arun Kumar; Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wanqui Wang; Fanglin Yang; Song-You Hong; Peitao Peng; Wilber Chen; Shrinivas Moorthi; Ming Ji

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

12

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro?Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed

Nazrin Ullah; P. Choudhury

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Hua-Lu Pan; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; Robert Kistler; John Woollen; David Behringer; Haixia Liu; Diane Stokes; Robert Grumbine; George Gayno; Jun Wang; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-Ya Chuang; Hann-Ming H. Juang; Joe Sela; Mark Iredell; Russ Treadon; Daryl Kleist; Paul Van Delst; Dennis Keyser; John Derber; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Helin Wei; Rongqian Yang; Stephen Lord; Huug Van Den Dool; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang; Craig Long; Muthuvel Chelliah; Yan Xue; Boyin Huang; Jae-Kyung Schemm; Wesley Ebisuzaki; Roger Lin; Pingping Xie; Mingyue Chen; Shuntai Zhou; Wayne Higgins; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Quanhua Liu; Yong Chen; Yong Han; Lidia Cucurull; Richard W. Reynolds; Glenn Rutledge; Mitch Goldberg

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Nonlinear forecasting and iterated function systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The theory of dynamical forecasting can be extended to iterated function systems. An unordered set of iterates may be sufficient to construct a simulation of the unknown dynamics. The underlying dynamical system may be nondeterministic: A random element may be allowed in the dynamics

Giorgio Mantica; B. G. Giraud

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Temporally distributed deterministic and stochastic excitation of the tangent linear forecast system governing forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing assimilation error growth is examined. The method used is to ...

Brian F. Farrell; Petros J. Ioannou

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Toward an Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for South America  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and ...

C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson; M. Balmaseda; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; G. J. van Oldenborgh

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting ­ August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS

Stevenson, Paul

24

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution forecasting approach ...

Luc Fillion; Monique Tanguay; Ervig Lapalme; Bertrand Denis; Michel Desgagne; Vivian Lee; Nils Ek; Zhuo Liu; Manon Lajoie; Jean-François Caron; Christian Pagé

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

An Improved Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A Model Output Statistics system for forecasting the conditional probability of precipitation type (PoPT) became operational within the National Weather Service in September 1978. Forecasts are provided for three precipitation type categories: ...

Joseph R. Bocchieri; George J. Maglaras

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

A web-based Hong Kong tourism demand forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate predictions of future business activities are important for business decision-making. As a consequence, powerful and simple forecasting processes are urgently pursued by decision-makers. This study presents a tourism demand forecasting system ...

Haiyan Song; Zixuan Gao; Xinyan Zhang; Shanshan Lin

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the extent to which an empirical correction method can improve forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System. The empirical correction is based on adding a forcing ...

Xiaosong Yang; Timothy DelSole; Hua-Lu Pan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

31

How Do Forecasters Utilize Output From A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study Of A High-Impact Precipitation Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation process. A sixteen-...

Clark Evans; Donald F. Van Dyke; Todd Lericos

32

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Quasigeostrophic Forecasting and Physical Processes of Iceland-Faroe Frontal Variability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a hydrocast survey of the Iceland-Faroe Front (IFF) from October 1992, quasigeostrophic forecasts are studied to validate their efficacy and to diagnose the physical processes involved in the rapid growth of a cold tongue intrusion. ...

Arthur J. Miller; Pierre-Marie Poulain; Alex Warn-Varnas; Hernan G. Arango; Allan R. Robinson; Wayne G. Leslie

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

An Example of Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting with a Global Analysis-Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The tracking of Hurricane Elena by the ECMWF operational analysis system is compared with reported positions from reconnaissance aircraft and coastal radar. An example forecast is shown for the operational model and also for an experimental ...

W. A. Heckley; M. J. Miller; A. K. Betts

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Changes to the 1995 NCEP Operational Medium-Range Forecast Model Analysis–Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent changes in the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) global analysis–forecast system are described. The most significant analysis change was the direct use of satellite-...

Peter Caplan; John Derber; William Gemmill; Song-You Hong; Hua-Lu Pan; David Parrish

1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Dynamical Properties of MOS Forecasts: Analysis of the ECMWF Operational Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The dynamical properties of ECMWF operational forecasts corrected by a (linear) model output statistics (MOS) technique are investigated, in light of the analysis performed in the context of low-order chaotic systems. Based on the latter work, ...

S. Vannitsem

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were ...

Jeffrey S. Whitaker; Thomas M. Hamill; Xue Wei; Yucheng Song; Zoltan Toth

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

To forecast short-term load in electric power system based on FNN  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric power system load forecasting plays an important part in the Energy Management System (EMS), which has a great effect on the operating, controlling and planning of power system. Accurate load forecasting, especially short-term load forecasting, ...

Yueli Hu; Huijie Ji; Xiaolong Song

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses ...

Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

A Short-Term Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasting System for Wind Power Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 h ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather ...

Justin J. Traiteur; David J. Callicutt; Maxwell Smith; Somnath Baidya Roy

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a wealth of data derived from scientific research and provides increasingly accurate solar forecasts. As the database of information grows over time, this algorithm perfects itself and reduces forecast uncertainties. This will provide a vastly more effective way of processing existing data for practical use in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we created an algorithm that stores data from several sources in a way that is useable, we created the ?dynamic algorithm? used for creating accurate/effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a vast improvement over current methods employed.

Fischer, Luke D.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

45

A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise ...

Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Forecast Skill of the South American Monsoon System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast ...

Charles Jones; Leila M. V. Carvalho; Brant Liebmann

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Harold E. Brooks; Steven J. Weiss; Stephen F. Corfidi

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Application of Learning Fuzzy Inference Systems in Electricity Load Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper highlights the results and applied techniques for the electricity load forecast competition organised by the European Network on Intelligent Technologies for Smart Adaptive Systems (www.eunite.org). The electricity load forecast problem is tackled in two di#erent stages by creating two di#erent models. The first model will predict the temperature and the second model uses the predicted temperature to forecast the maximum electricity load. For both model, learning fuzzy inference systems are applied. Initial fuzzy rules are generated and then the numerical data provided by Eastern Slovakian Electricity Corporation are used to learn the parameters of the learning fuzzy inference systems. The learning technique is applied for both temperature and load forecast.

Ahamd Lotfi

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval

Farrell, Brian F.

50

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

51

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature

53

Relative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Retrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 (CFSv2)] shows ...

Qin Zhang; Huug van den Dool

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Singhal, Gaurav

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Intelligent Circuit Breaker Forecasting and Prewarning System Research  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes an intelligent circuit breaker software and hardware design, real-time multi-task alarm system will be introduced into circuit breaker monitoring and control, to the timely opening and timely alarm. According to the different impact ... Keywords: Intelligent circuit breaker, forecasting, prewarning

Jiaomin Liu; Li Li; Yaxuan Li; Peng Liu

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Knowledge representation in an expert storm forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

METEOR is a rule- and frame-based system for short-term (3-18 hour) severe convective storm forecasting. This task requires a framework that supports inferences about the temporal and spatial features of meteorological changes. Initial predictions are ...

Renee Elio; Johannes De Haan

1985-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area Forecast Systems (LAFS). A ...

Bao-Fong Jeng; Hway-Jen Chen; Shwu-Ching Lin; Tzay-Ming Leou; Melinda S. Peng; Simon W. Chang; Wu-Ron Hsu; C.-P. Chang

1991-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...

W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

A Numerical Daily Air Quality Forecast System for The Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A real-time photochemical air quality forecast system has been implemented for the Puget Sound region to support public awareness of air quality issues. The Air Indicator Report for Public Access and Community Tracking (AIRPACT) forecast system ...

Joseph Vaughan; Brian Lamb; Chris Frei; Rob Wilson; Clint Bowman; Cristiana Figueroa-Kaminsky; Sally Otterson; Mike Boyer; Cliff Mass; Mark Albright; Jane Koenig; Alice Collingwood; Mike Gilroy; Naydene Maykut

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An overview of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) current operational Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is presented. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter ...

Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Ariel F. Stein; Albion Taylor; Mark G. Ruminski; Shobha Kondragunta; Jian Zeng; Ho-Chun Huang; Geoffrey Manikin; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula M. Davidson

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Climate Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean Sector in the NSIPP Seasonal Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Prospects for forecasting Indian dipole mode (IDM) events with lead times of a season or more are examined using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model forecast system. The mean climatology of the system over ...

Roxana C. Wajsowicz

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Use of a Real-Time Computer Graphics System in Analysis and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Real-time computer graphics systems are being introduced into weather stations throughout the United States. A sample of student forecasters used such a system to solve specific specialized forecasting problems. Results suggest that for some ...

John J. Cahir; John M. Norman; Dale A. Lowry

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

Statistical Forecasts Based on the National Meteorological Center's Numerical Weather Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The production of interpretive weather element forecasts from dynamical model output variables is now an integral part of the centralized guidance systems of weather services throughout the world. The statistical forecasting system in the United ...

Gary M. Carter; J. Paul Dallavalle; Harry R. Glahn

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes results from the second phase of the California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project.

2003-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

65

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Summer-Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To examine the impact from land model upgrades and different land initializations on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Climate Forecast System (CFS), extensive T126 CFS experiments are carried out for 25 summers with 10 ...

Rongqian Yang; Kenneth Mitchell; Jesse Meng; Michael Ek

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Patterns of Land Surface Errors and Biases in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One year’s worth of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea level pressure) are validated for land-based stations over the entire planet for forecasts ...

David Werth; Alfred Garrett

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a ...

Steven M. Lazarus; Samuel T. Wilson; Michael E. Splitt; Gary A. Zarillo

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

A Diagnostic Verification of the Precipitation Forecasts Produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a given threshold was ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning Automated Thunderstorm Tracks into Severe Weather Warnings  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a new tool called the Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System (TIFS; formerly known as ThunderBox) for interactively producing finished severe weather warnings and other forecasts from ...

John Bally

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Neural networks based multiplex forecasting system of the end-point of copper blow period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The neural network and the experiential evaluation method are introduced into the industrial converting process forecast, and a multiplex forecast system is proposed at the end-point of copper blow period in a matte converting process. The fuzzy clustering ...

Lihua Xue; Hongzhong Huang; Yaohua Hu; Zhangming Shi

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy ...

Gabriel García-Medina; H. Tuba Özkan-Haller; Peter Ruggiero; Jeffrey Oskamp

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

A deterministic air quality forecasting system for Torino urban area, Italy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An urban air quality forecasting system for Torino city has been developed, within the EU funded project FUMAPEX, to support the prevention and management of urban air pollution episodes. The proposed forecasting system is designed to provide stakeholders ... Keywords: Air quality forecasting, Air quality management, Chemical transport models, Urban air pollution, Urban meteorology

S. Finardi; R. De Maria; A. D'Allura; C. Cascone; G. Calori; F. Lollobrigida

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction Xing, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initiali- zation to improve the seasonal climate forecasts. We present a first look at the capability

Pan, Ming

75

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Vol. 3  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 MW in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 percent Renewable Portfolio Standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forecasting ...

2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

76

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEP’s Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006–August 2010. Verification is conducted for 10–20 hydrologic basins in ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Jun Du

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

78

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

Heinemann, Detlev

79

Application of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System to Medium-Range Forecasting in South Africa: New Products, Benefits, and Challenges  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Forecasting System (EFS) is used operationally in South Africa for medium-range forecasts up to 14 days ahead. The use of model-generated probability forecasts has a clear benefit ...

Warren J. Tennant; Zoltan Toth; Kevin J. Rae

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

pricing. Although it is known that probabilistic forecasts (which give a distribution over possible futureLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields Matt Wytock and J. Zico Kolter Abstract-- Short-term forecasting is a ubiquitous practice

Kolter, J. Zico

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Characterization and Impact of Extreme Forecast Errors on Power Systems  

SciTech Connect

Extreme events in the electrical power system, caused by the load and wind forecasting errors, can impact the power system infrastructure via two main avenues. The first avenue is a sudden and significant power unbalance exceeding reasonable operating reserve capacity. The second is a sudden increase of power flows on the system critical paths causing transmission violations. The challenge in managing these system unbalances is more significant for a standalone balancing area operation. The consolidation of balancing authorities into a single balancing area can offset the operating reserve problem but this strategy enhances incremental power flows on the transmission interfaces, potentially leading to more unpredictable transmission congestion. This paper evaluates the expectancy of occurrence of tail events due to forecast error extremes using California ISO and BPA data. Having this type of information, independent system operators and operating utilities could be better prepared to address the tail events by exploring alternative reserve options such as: wide area control coordination, new operating proce-dures and remedial actions.

Heydt, Gerald T.; Vittal, Vijay; Malhara, Sunita V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Zhou, Ning; Etingov, Pavel V.

2011-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

83

FUTURA: Hybrid System for Electric Load Forecasting by Using Case-Based Reasoning and Expert System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of combining a numeric extrapolation of data with the methodology of case-based reasoning and expert systems in order to improve the electric load forecasting are presented in this contribution. Registers of power consumption are stored as ...

Raúl Vilcahuamán; Joaquim Meléndez; Josep Lluis de la Rosa

2002-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Factors Influencing Skill Improvements in the ECMWF Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the past 30 years the skill in ECMWF numerical forecasts has steadily improved. There are three major contributing factors: 1) improvements in the forecast model, 2) improvements in the data assimilation, and 3) the increased number of ...

Linus Magnusson; Erland Källén

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Capsule: The development and implementation of a drought monitoring and seasonal hydrological forecast system for sub-Saharan Africa contributes to building capacity through technology and knowledge transfer.

Justin Sheffield; Eric F. Wood; Nathaniel Chaney; Kaiyu Guan; Sara Sadri; Xing Yuan; Luke Olang; Abou Amani; Abdou Ali; Siegfried Demuth; Laban Ogallo

86

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes initial results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2003-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

87

The Stratospheric Extension of the Canadian Global Deterministic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting System and Its Impact on Tropospheric Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new system that resolves the stratosphere was implemented for operational medium-range weather forecasts at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. The model lid was raised from 10 to 0.1 hPa, parameterization schemes for nonorographic gravity wave ...

Martin Charron; Saroja Polavarapu; Mark Buehner; P. A. Vaillancourt; Cécilien Charette; Michel Roch; Josée Morneau; Louis Garand; Josep M. Aparicio; Stephen MacPherson; Simon Pellerin; Judy St-James; Sylvain Heilliette

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

California Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing, Phase 1: Initial Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting uses sophisticated numerical weather forecasting and wind plant power generation models to predict the hourly energy generation of a wind power plant up to 48 hours in advance. As a result, it has great potential to address the needs of the California Independent System Operator (ISO) and the wind plant operators, as well as power marketers and buyers and utility system dispatch personnel. This report gives the results of 28 days of testing of wind energy forecasting at a Californ...

2003-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

89

Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing: Phase 2: 12-Month Testing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Wind energy forecasting systems are expected to support system operation in cases where wind generation contributes more than a few percent of total generating capacity. This report presents final results from the Texas Wind Energy Forecasting System Development and Testing Project at a 75-MW wind project in west Texas.

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

90

Combining artificial neural networks and heuristic rules in a hybrid intelligent load forecast system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this work, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is combined to Heuristic Rules producing a powerful hybrid intelligent system for short and mid-term electric load forecasting. The Heuristic Rules are used to adjust the ANN output to improve the system ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, electric load forecast, heuristic rules, hybrid system

Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino; Aida A. Ferreira; Manoel A. Carvalho, Jr.; Milde M. S. Lira; Geane B. Silva; Otoni Nóbrega Neto

2006-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

92

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is the culmination of a 3-yr project to develop a numerical primitive equation system for generating high-resolution (1–5 km) short-term (24–36 h) forecasts for the Australian coastal cities ...

M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Tory; M. Azzi; J. Carras; W. Lilley; P. C. Manins; P. Nelson; L. Ng; K. Puri; N. Wong; S. Walsh; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

The complex fuzzy system forecasting model based on triangular fuzzy robust wavelet ?-support vector machine  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a new version of fuzzy wavelet support vector regression machine to forecast the nonlinear fuzzy system with multi-dimensional input variables. The input and output variables of the proposed model are described as triangular fuzzy ... Keywords: Fuzzy ?-support vector machine, Fuzzy system forecasting, Particle swarm optimization, Wavelet kernel function

Qi Wu

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Ensemble Precipitation and Water-Level Forecasts for Anticipatory Water-System Control  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is presented for testing weather forecast products for applications in anticipatory water-system control. The applicability of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the ECMWF is tested for flood control in a regional water system in ...

Schalk Jan van Andel; Roland K. Price; Arnold H. Lobbrecht; Frans van Kruiningen; Robert Mureau

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

The Land Surface Analysis in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) uses the NASA Land Information System (LIS) to create its land surface analysis: the NCEP Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Comparing to the previous two generations of NCEP global ...

Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Helin Wei; Michael Ek; George Gayno; Pingping Xie; Kenneth Mitchell

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Dynamical Initialization for the Numerical Forecasting of Ocean Surface Circulations Using a Variational Assimilation System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A variational data assimilation system is presented for the initialization of an ocean surface circulation forecast system. The authors’ variational data assimilation system is designed to satisfy both statistical and dynamical constraints. As is ...

Yoichi Ishikawa; Toshiyuki Awaji; Nobumasa Komori

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

A Real-Time Eulerian Photochemical Model Forecast System: Overview and Initial Ozone Forecast Performance in the Northeast U.S. Corridor  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article reports on the first implementation of a real-time Eulerian photochemical model forecast system in the United States. The forecast system consists of a tripartite set of one-way coupled models that run routinely on a parallel ...

John N. McHenry; William F. Ryan; Nelson L. Seaman; Carlie J. Coats Jr; Janusz Pudykiewicz; Sarav Arunachalam; Jeffery M. Vukovich

2004-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Forecast Verification of the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Sea Ice Concentration Fields  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice–ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24–120-h sea ice forecasts. Here forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from PIPS ...

Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Ruth H. Preller; Pamela G. Posey

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Comparative analysis of models integrating synoptic forecast data into potato late blight risk estimate systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Determinacy analysis, logistic regression, discriminant analysis and neural network models were compared for their accuracy in 5-day (120h) forecasts of daily potato late blight risk according to a modified-Wallin disease severity model. For 12 locations ... Keywords: Expert systems, Forecasting, Neural network models, Risk mitigation

Kathleen M. Baker; William W. Kirk

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Improved forecasting of time series data of real system using genetic programming  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A study is made to improve short term forecasting of time series data of real system using Genetic Programming (GP) under the framework of time delayed embedding technique. GP based approach is used to make analytical model of time series data of real ... Keywords: genetic programming, state-space reconstruction, time series forecasting

Dilip P. Ahalpara

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new radiation package, “McRad,” has become operational with cycle 32R2 of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). McRad includes an improved description of the land surface ...

J-J. Morcrette; H. W. Barker; J. N. S. Cole; M. J. Iacono; R. Pincus

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Nettuno: Analysis of a Wind and Wave Forecast System in the Mediterranean Sea  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Nettuno is a wind and wave forecast system in the Mediterranean Sea. It has been operational since 2009 producing twice a day high resolution forecasts for the next 72 hours. We have carried out a detailed analysis of the results, both in space ...

Luciana Bertotti; Luigi Cavaleri; Layla Loffredo; Lucio Torrisi

105

The Description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We present a description of the development of the spectral forecast components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The original system, called 3.0, was introduced in January 1988. New versions were introduced ...

Timothy F. Hogan; Thomas E. Rosmond

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a unique problem in the eastern United States due to the influence of the Appalachian Mountains. At times these systems are able to traverse the terrain and produce severe ...

Casey E. Letkewicz; Matthew D. Parker

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

The Regional Analysis and Forecast System of the National Meteorological Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The three components of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), ...

James E. Hoke; Norman A. Phillips; Geoffrey J. Dimego; James J. Tuccillo; Joseph G. Sela

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasting systems, and related systems for decadal prediction, are crucial in the development of adaptation strategies to climate change. However, despite important achievements in this area in the last 10 years, significant levels of ...

Alberto Arribas; M. Glover; A. Maidens; K. Peterson; M. Gordon; C. MacLachlan; R. Graham; D. Fereday; J. Camp; A. A. Scaife; P. Xavier; P. McLean; A. Colman; S. Cusack

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

The Development and Verification of TIPS: An Expert System to Forecast Thunderstorm Occurrence  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A rule-based expert system has been developed to assist military weather forecasters in the prediction of thunderstorms. The knowledge base used by the Thunderstorm Intelligence Prediction System (TIPS) was built by using meteorological ...

Robert R. Lee; Jeffrey E. Passner

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this ...

A. J. Challinor; J. M. Slingo; T. R. Wheeler; P. Q. Craufurd; D. I. F. Grimes

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System  

SciTech Connect

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA`s modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes.

1997-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The operational coupled land–atmosphere forecast model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is evaluated for the strength and characteristics of its coupling in the water cycle between land and atmosphere. Following the ...

Li Zhang; Paul A. Dirmeyer; Jiangfeng Wei; Zhichang Guo; Cheng-Hsuan Lu

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

TEACHMET: An Expert System for Teaching Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Students or weather forecasting need to learn to identify efficiently the information relevant to the elements they predict. One way students learn these skills is by engaging in discussions of interesting weather situations as they occur. In ...

Nathan M. Reiss; James C. Hofmann

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...

Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Comparing Probabilistic Forecasting Systems with the Brier Score  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article considers the Brier score for verifying ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts of binary events. New estimators for the effect of ensemble size on the expected Brier score, and associated confidence intervals, are proposed. An ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

METEOR: An Artificial Intelligence System for Convective Storm Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An experienced forecaster can use several different types of knowledge in forcing. First, there is his theoretical understanding of meteorology, which is well entrenched in current numerical models. A second type is his “local knowledge,” gained ...

Renée Elio; Johannes De Haan; G. S. Strong

1987-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Forecasting distribution system loads using curve shape clustering  

SciTech Connect

Trending using curve fitting to past small area load growth is an economical but not highly accurate method of forecasting loads for distribution planning. A new trending method uses clustering of historical load at the small area level as the forecast algorithm. This new method has significant performance advantages over normal curve fit methods and can be implemented in 16 bit integer arithmetic on most computers. The method and test results are discussed in detail.

Willis, H.L.; Northcote-Green, J.E.D.; Schauer, A.E.; Vismor, T.D.

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Prediction Skill and Bias of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction were examined. The CFSv2 was ...

Yan Xue; Mingyue Chen; Arun Kumar; Zeng-Zhen Hu; Wanqiu Wang

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

The Impact of Advanced Nowcasting Systems on Severe Weather Warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of ...

Neil I. Fox; Rob Webb; John Bally; Michael W. Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; David M. L. Sills; Paul I. Joe; James Wilson; Chris G. Collier

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Tropical Cyclone Formations over the Western North Pacific in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A set of criteria is developed to identify tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecast fields. Then the NOGAPS forecasts of TC formations from 1997 to 1999 are ...

Kevin K. W. Cheung; Russell L. Elsberry

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, “Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations.” This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This year’s goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

123

On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Space-Time Wind Speed Forecasting for Improved Power System Dispatch  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large scale integration of wind power, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient scheduling of wind power in electric energy systems. In this article, space-time wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models. First, we proposed a new space-time wind forecasting model, which generalizes and improves upon a so-called regime-switching space-time model by allowing the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons. Then, results from the new wind forecasting model are implemented into a power system economic dispatch model, which takes into account both spatial and temporal wind speed correlations. This, in turn, leads to an overall more cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation portfolio. The potential economic benefits arise in the system-wide generation cost savings and in the ancillary service cost savings. This is illustrated in a test system in the northwest region of the U.S. Compared with persistent and autoregressive models, our proposed method could lead to annual integration cost savings on the scale of tens of millions of dollars in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Northwest. Key words: Power system economic dispatch; Power system operation; Space-time statistical model; Wind data; Wind speed forecasting.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton; Yingzhong Gu; Le Xie

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

A Computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes a prototype computational Web Portal for the Distributed Marine Environment Forecast System (DMEFS). DMEFS is a research framework to develop and operate validated Climate-Weather-Ocean models. The DMEFS portal is implemented as ...

Tomasz Haupt; Purushotham Bangalore; Gregory Henley

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Assessment of the Aviation Weather Center Global Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems*  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper examines the precision of location and top height of mesoscale convective systems, as forecast by the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The examination was motivated by the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) on the space ...

Baruch Ziv; Yoav Yair; Karin Presman; Martin Füllekrug

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Modeling the Distribution of Precipitation Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Kernel Density Estimation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a powerful tool widely used ...

Syd Peel; Laurence J. Wilson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Sensitivity of Forecast Rainfall in a Texas Convective System to Soil Moisture and Convective Parameterization  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of soil moisture on the forecast of a small-scale convective system, and sensitivity of results to the convective parameterization used, are investigated through Eta Model simulations (run in an operational-like setting) of a ...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2000-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Model Bias in a Continuously Cycled Assimilation System and Its Influence on Convection-Permitting Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the spring 2011 season, a real-time continuously cycled ensemble data assimilation system using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed toolkit ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Simulations and Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analysis of the retrospective ensemble predictions (hindcasts) of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicates that the model successfully simulates many major features of the Asian summer monsoon including the climatology and interannual ...

Song Yang; Zuqiang Zhang; Vernon E. Kousky; R. Wayne Higgins; Soo-Hyun Yoo; Jianyin Liang; Yun Fan

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Test of a Poor Man’s Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Range Probability Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are designed specifically for medium-range forecasting, but there is also considerable interest in predictability in the short range, particularly for potential severe-weather developments. A ...

A. Arribas; K. B. Robertson; K. R. Mylne

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Characteristics of Subsurface Ocean Response to ENSO Assessed from Simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The subsurface ocean temperature response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined based on 31-yr (1981–2011) simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The ...

Hui Wang; Arun Kumar; Wanqiu Wang

134

Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble forecast system consists of ...

Tadashi Fujita; David J. Stensrud; David C. Dowell

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

135

A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form of probabilities of ...

Laurence J. Wilson; William R. Burrows; Andreas Lanzinger

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

Linking the Eta Model with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Build a National Air Quality Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

NOAA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have developed a national air quality forecasting (AQF) system that is based on numerical models for meteorology, emissions, and chemistry. The AQF system generates gridded model forecasts ...

Tanya L. Otte; George Pouliot; Jonathan E. Pleim; Jeffrey O. Young; Kenneth L. Schere; David C. Wong; Pius C. S. Lee; Marina Tsidulko; Jeffery T. McQueen; Paula Davidson; Rohit Mathur; Hui-Ya Chuang; Geoff DiMego; Nelson L. Seaman

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, energy management systems, fuzzy logic, load behaviour estimation, power system distribution, power system restoration, residential load forecasting, thermostatically controlled loads

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

A System Dynamics Approach for Developing Zone Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study of Linkong Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

System dynamics (SD) approach for developing zone water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of its water resources system which has multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions amongst system elements. As an example, Tianjin Binhai Linkong ... Keywords: developing zone, system dynamics, water resources demand, Linkong

Xuehua Zhang; Hongwei Zhang; Xinhua Zhao

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This dissertation investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local neighborhood of each model grid point location ?. A local error covariance matrix P? is defined for each local region and the diagnostics are applied to the linear space S? defined by the range of the ensemble based estimate of P?. The particular diagnostics are chosen to help investigate the ability of S? to efficiently capture the space of true forecast or analysis uncertainties, accurately predict the magnitude of forecast or analysis uncertainties, and to distinguish between the importance of different state space directions. Additionally, we aim to better understand the roots of the underestimation of the magnitude of uncertainty by the ensemble at longer forecast lead times. Numerical experiments are carried out with an implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both simulated observations under the perfect model scenario and observations of the real atmosphere are used in these experiments. It is found that (i) paradoxically, the linear space S? provides an increasingly better estimate of the space of forecast uncertainties as the time evolution of the ensemble perturbations becomes more nonlinear with increasing forecast time, (ii) S? provides a more reliable linear representation of the space of forecast uncertainties for cases of more rapid error growth, (iii) the E-dimension is a reliable predictor of the performance of S? in predicting the space of forecast uncertainties, (iv) the ensemble grossly underestimates the forecast error variance in S?, (v) when realistic observation coverage is used, the ensemble typically overestimates the uncertainty in the leading eigen-directions of ˆP ? and underestimates the uncertainty in the trailing directions at analysis time and underestimates the uncertainty in all directions by the 120-hr forecast lead time, and (vi) at analysis time, with a constant covariance inflation factor, the ensemble typically underestimates uncertainty in densely observed regions and overestimates the uncertainty in sparsely observed regions.

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

A novel statistical time-series pattern based interval forecasting strategy for activity durations in workflow systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting workflow activity durations is of great importance to support satisfactory QoS in workflow systems. Traditionally, a workflow system is often designed to facilitate the process automation in a specific application domain where activities ... Keywords: Activity duration, Interval forecasting, Statistical time series, Time-series patterns, Workflow system

Xiao Liu; Zhiwei Ni; Dong Yuan; Yuanchun Jiang; Zhangjun Wu; Jinjun Chen; Yun Yang

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional WRF ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

144

Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.

Not Available

1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather System’s mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...

Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

Chin, H S

2005-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

147

Long range forecast of power demands on the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company system. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect

The report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGandE) through the year 2003. The report describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations and associated summary statistics, the forecast assumptions, and the calculated forecasts of energy usage and peak demand. Separate models were estimated for summer and winter residential electricity usage in both Baltimore city and the non-city portion of the BGandE service area. Equations were also estimated for commercial energy usage, industrial usage, streetlighting, and for losses plus Company use. Non-econometric techniques were used to estimate future energy use by Bethlehem Steel Corporation's Sparrows Point plant in Baltimore County, Conrail, and the Baltimore Mass Transit Administration underground rail system. Models of peak demand for summer and winter were also estimated.

Estomin, S.L.; Kahal, M.I.

1985-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

A Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation Using Simple Nudging Data Assimilation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study describes the establishment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for Coastal Ocean Circulation (NFS-COC), which was run operationally on a daily basis to provide users ocean surface currents and sea levels that vary with synoptic winds, and ...

Jia Wang

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts.com Abstract The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predic and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south

Webster, Peter J.

150

A forecasting system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function neural network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A predictive system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is proposed in this paper. The proposed work consists of three parts: information acquisition, fuel consumption forecasting algorithm and performance evaluation. ... Keywords: Artificial neural network, Car fuel consumption, Radial basis function algorithm

Jian-Da Wu; Jun-Ching Liu

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A detailed evaluation of NOAA’s Smoke Forecasting System (SFS) is a fundamental part of its development and further refinement. In this work, particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5-?m (PM2.5) concentration levels, simulated ...

Ariel F. Stein; Glenn D. Rolph; Roland R. Draxler; Barbara Stunder; Mark Ruminski

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Load forecasting framework of electricity consumptions for an Intelligent Energy Management System in the user-side  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work presents an electricity consumption-forecasting framework configured automatically and based on an Adaptative Neural Network Inference System (ANFIS). This framework is aimed to be implemented in industrial plants, such as automotive factories, ... Keywords: ANFIS, Forecasting, Genetic algorithm, Intelligent EMS, Modelling

Juan J. Cárdenas; Luis Romeral; Antonio Garcia; Fabio Andrade

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Application of a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary system for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Hybrid neuro-evolutionary system, Neural network, Price forecast

Nima Amjady; Farshid Keynia

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on the fluctuating wind and solar resources an indispensable necessity. Any efficient imple- mentation of wind-alone photovoltaic or wind energy systems, control systems in buildings, control of solar thermal power plants time constants. For example, an operation of a PV-diesel system needs information in the very short

Heinemann, Detlev

155

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Real-Time Multimodel Superensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1999  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, Atlantic hurricane forecasts for the year 1999 are addressed. The methodology for these forecasts is called the multimodel superensemble. This statistical method makes use of the real-time forecasts provided by a number of ...

C. Eric Williford; T. N. Krishnamurti; Ricardo Correa Torres; Steven Cocke; Zaphiris Christidis; T. S. Vijaya Kumar

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Application of a Limited-Area Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System to a Case of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Severe weather risk assessment is becoming an increasing component of the daily operational activity at advanced meteorological forecasting centers. To improve its forecast capabilities and develop a severe weather warning system, the Sardinian ...

P. A. Chessa; G. Ficca; M. Marrocu; R. Buizza

2004-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Westerly Wind Events and the 1997/98 El Niño Event in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System: A Case Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 1997/98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. Its onset was predicted by several numerical models, though none fully captured its intensity. This was the case for the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system that underestimated the ...

Frédéric Vitart; Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; David Anderson

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case Study of a Melbourne 4-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during ...

K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; G. D. Hess; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; N. Wong

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The effect of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation. Two sets of experiments are analyzed. The primary experiment compares ...

Steven L. Mullen; Roberto Buizza

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper verifies the strengths and positions of extratropical cyclones around North America and the adjacent oceans within the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the ...

Michael E. Charles; Brian A. Colle

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Impact of the Different Components of 4DVAR on the Global Forecast System of the Meteorological Service of Canada  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme has recently been implemented in the medium-range weather forecast system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). The new scheme is now composed of several additional and ...

Stéphane Laroche; Pierre Gauthier; Monique Tanguay; Simon Pellerin; Josée Morneau

2007-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

165

Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to provide precipitation forecasts during the 2008/09 and 2009/10 winters (wet season) for Israel and the surrounding region where complex terrain dominates. The WRF precipitation ...

Amir Givati; Barry Lynn; Yubao Liu; Alon Rimmer

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2010-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

167

Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

2011-06-23T23:59:59.000Z

168

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

170

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Customization of the EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) and User Support for the California Independent System Operator (CA-ISO)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is an important part of power system planning and operation. In the past, forecasting was achieved by extrapolating existing load data combined with other influencing factors. This method is no longer accurate enough. The Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) is a tool for the quick and accurate prediction of hourly loads that provides the level of accuracy required by today's complex and competitive power markets. This report describes all the deliverables for t...

2002-11-19T23:59:59.000Z

177

Application of partial mutual information variable selection to ANN forecasting of water quality in water distribution systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recent trends in the management of water supply have increased the need for modelling techniques that can provide reliable, efficient, and accurate representation of the complex, non-linear dynamics of water quality within water distribution systems. ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Chlorine disinfection, Chlorine residual forecasting, Input variable selection, Partial mutual information, Water quality modelling

Robert J. May; Graeme C. Dandy; Holger R. Maier; John B. Nixon

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part II: Case Study of a Sydney 7-Day Photochemical Smog Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) is examined by means of a case study of a 7-day photochemical smog event in the Sydney region. This was the worst smog event for the 2000/ 01 oxidant season, and, because of ...

G. D. Hess; K. J. Tory; M. E. Cope; S. Lee; K. Puri; P. C. Manins; M. Young

2004-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

A PGAS Implementation by Co-design of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Today the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) runs a 16 km global T1279 operational weather forecast model using 1,536 cores of an IBM Power7. Following the historical evolution in resolution upgrades, ECMWF could expect to be ... Keywords: PGAS, COARRAYS, FORTRAN2008, CRESTA,

George Mozdzynski, Mats Hamrud, Nils Wedi, Jens Doleschal, Harvey Richardson

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Using adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system to forecast automobile sales  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Improving the sales forecasting accuracy has become a primary concern for automobile industry. Here, we only focus on new automobile sales in Taiwan. The data set is based on monthly sales, and the data can be divided into three styles of automobile ... Keywords: ANFIS, ANN, ARIMA, Demand forecasting

Fu-Kwun Wang; Ku-Kuang Chang; Chih-Wei Tzeng

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

183

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations  

SciTech Connect

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Combined hydraulic and black-box models for flood forecasting in urban drainage systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Rapid urbanization and its implications for both water quality issues and floods have increased the need for modeling of urban drainage systems. Many operational models are based on deterministic solutions of hydraulic equations. Improving such models by adding a “black-box ” component to deal with any systematic structure in the residuals is proposed. In this study, a conventional deterministic stormwater drainage network model is first developed for a rapidly developing catchment using the HYDROWORKS ?now called Infoworks ? package, from Wallingford Software in the United Kingdom. However, despite the generally satisfactory results, the HYDROWORKS model tended to underestimate the flow volume. In this paper, a black-box or “systems ” model is fitted to the hydraulic urban drainage model in order to improve its overall efficiency. A study was conducted of suitable black-box models, which included the nonlinear artificial neural network model ?ANN?, and the linear time series models of Box and Jenkins in 1976. They were added to either the output ?in simulation mode ? or, in updating mode, to the residuals ?i.e., difference between modeled and measured output ? of the deterministic hydraulic model. The updating procedure provided a considerable improvement in the overall model efficiency for different lead-time forecasting. In simulation mode, however, only the nonlinear ANN model gave better performance in calibration, and a slight improvement in validation.

Michael Bruen; M. Asce; Jianqing Yang

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm complex. The ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

A Fuzzy Logic–Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

WIND-3 is an application for aviation weather forecasting that uses the analog method to produce deterministic predictions of cloud ceiling height and horizontal visibility at airports. For data, it uses historical and current airport ...

Bjarne Hansen

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)  

SciTech Connect

Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Calibrated Surface Temperature Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a way of correcting underdispersion in ensemble forecasts. BMA is a standard statistical procedure for combining predictive distributions from different sources. The output of BMA is a ...

Laurence J. Wilson; Stephane Beauregard; Adrian E. Raftery; Richard Verret

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting is a feasible method to integrate a deterministic forecast with an estimate of the probability distribution of atmospheric states. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction ...

Roberto Buizza

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

194

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

195

Implementing Innovation in Planning Practice: The Case of Travel Demand Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project. Institute ofTRB. Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice andPurvis. Regional Travel Forecasting Model System for the San

Newmark, Gregory Louis

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...

Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

A Revised Hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from Field Site to Terrestrial Water Storage and Impact in the Integrated Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land (TESSEL) is used operationally in the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) for describing the evolution of soil, vegetation, and snow over the continents at diverse spatial resolutions. A revised ...

Gianpaolo Balsamo; Anton Beljaars; Klaus Scipal; Pedro Viterbo; Bart van den Hurk; Martin Hirschi; Alan K. Betts

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Missing wind data forecasting with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In any region, to begin generating electricity from wind energy, it is necessary to determine the 1-year distribution characteristics of wind speed. For this aim, a wind observation station must be constructed and 1-year wind speed and direction data ... Keywords: ANFIS, Back-propagation, Forecasting, Missing data, Wind energy, Wind speed

Fatih O. Hocaoglu; Yusuf Oysal; Mehmet Kurban

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Study of Machine Round-Off response on Weather Forecasting Simulations Using High Performance Computing Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The weather forecasting model T80L18 is found to be sensitive to variations in the computing platform. The global spectral model simulation variation due to machine round off is examined using rounding mode analysis and the perturbation methods. The ...

S. Janakiraman; J. V. Ratnam; Akshara Kaginalkar

2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

A Weather Forecasting System using concept of Soft Computing: a new approach  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather forecasting and warnings are the major services provided by the meteorological profession. Many government and private agencies are working on its behavior but still it is challenging and incomplete. We propose a new technique to construct the learning set of images

A. Sharma; U. Datta

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramón de Elía; René Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

206

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

209

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

210

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Röpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS. VOL. 25. NO. I. FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

for Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," IEEE Trans. PWRS, vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996, pp. 397-402. [4Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1 , James H. Taylor2) is presented for the hourly load forecasting of the coming days. In this approach, 24 independent networks

Luh, Peter

212

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

215

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

218

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

219

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

220

Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Model deficiencies limit a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system’s ability to produce accurate predictions. In this paper, an approach for transforming the output of a forecast system into a revised forecast is presented; it is designed to ...

Randal D. Koster; Thomas L. Bell; Rolf H. Reichle; Max J. Suarez; Siegfried D. Schubert

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Verification of a Mesoscale Data-Assimilation and Forecasting System for the Oklahoma City Area during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command have developed a multiscale, rapid-cycling, real-time, four-dimensional data-assimilation and forecasting system that has been in operational use at ...

Yubao Liu; Fei Chen; Thomas Warner; Jeffrey Basara

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205 The Use of Tracers as Diagnostics for Model Development  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

emissions of CFCs and SF6 are often related to the `electrical power grid distributions); tropospheric #12ECMWF Seminar on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems, 7-10 September 2009 205/sinks and incomplete observational data sets. In addition, the importance of models' transport capabilities vis

223

A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Analyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA’s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over the 15-yr common period ...

Peitao Peng; Anthony G. Barnston; Arun Kumar

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

225

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ...

Huiling Yuan; Chungu Lu; John A. McGinley; Paul J. Schultz; Brian D. Jamison; Linda Wharton; Christopher J. Anderson

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

A novel hybrid AI system framework for crude oil price forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a novel hybrid AI system framework is developed by means of a systematic integration of artificial neural networks (ANN) and rulebased expert system (RES) with web-based text mining (WTM) techniques. Within the hybrid AI system framework, ...

Shouyang Wang; Lean Yu; K. K. Lai

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part I: Comparsion of Coarse- and Fine-Grid Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using a nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing, the authors employ the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique, developed originally for global and synoptic-scale ...

Fanyou Kong; Kelvin K. Droegemeier; Nicki L. Hickmon

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

An Objective Comparison of Model Output Statistics and “Perfect Prog” Systems in Producing Numerical Weather Element Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The “perfect prog” (PP) and model output statistics (MOS) approaches were used to develop multiple linear regression equations to forecast probabilities of more than a trace of precipitation over 6-h periods, probabilities of precipitation ...

N. Brunet; R. Verret; N. Yacowar

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

232

Toward a Monitoring and Forecasting System For Atmospheric Composition: The GEMS Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a ...

A. Hollingsworth; R. J. Engelen; A. Benedetti; A. Dethof; J. Flemming; J. W. Kaiser; J-J. Morcrette; A. J. Simmons; C. Textor; O. Boucher; F. Chevallier; P. Rayner; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; C. Granier; V-H. Peuch; L. Rouil; M. G. Schultz

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from the global positioning system (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression ...

Kristen Kehrer; Brian Graf; William P. Roeder

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Predictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System: Predictability of the Space of Uncertainties  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble prediction system is inherently flow dependent. This paper investigates the flow dependence of the ensemble performance with the help of linear diagnostics applied to the ensemble perturbations in a small local ...

Elizabeth Satterfield; Istvan Szunyogh

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Prev'air: An Operational Forecasting and Mapping System for Air Quality in Europe  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The current state of the art in three-dimensional chemistry-transport models allows them to be considered as mature and reliable enough to be combined with observations networks for implementing integrated air quality monitoring systems over ...

Laurence Rouil; Cécile Honoré; Bertrand Bessagnet; Laure Malherbe; Frédérik Meleux; Robert Vautard; Matthias Beekmann; Jean-Marie Flaud; Anne Dufour; Daniel Martin; Aline Peuch; Vincent-Henri Peuch; Christian Elichegaray; Nathalie Poisson; Laurent Menut

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Examining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research diagnosed a strong ...

Adam J. Clark; Jidong Gao; Patrick T. Marsh; Travis Smith; John S. Kain; James Correia Jr.; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl’s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and ...

Ryan D. Torn; David Cook

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large-scale computa&onal models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Real &me numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading using large conditions). Forecast = best prediction given the present knowledge on the system. Projection = attempt functionalities) #12;Real time forecast for the H1N1pdm (2009) Key parameters

Cattuto, Ciro

239

Original paper: Development of a web-based disease forecasting system for strawberries  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Abstract: Florida produces about 16 million flats of strawberries every year, 15% of berries produced in the U.S. and virtually all the berries grown in the winter. Fungicides are applied on a weekly schedule to control Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit ... Keywords: Climate, Decision support system, Google Maps, Simulation modeling, Web-based interface

W. Pavan; C. W. Fraisse; N. A. Peres

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Ethernet-Based Computer Monitoring the Roof Abscission Layer With Experts Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

China is a coal accident-prone country. In all coal accidents, the most serious incident is roof accident. Roof accidents are account for over 45% of the total mortality in coal enterprises. Roof accident is threatening the lives and safety of miners, ... Keywords: the roof abscission layer, on-line monitoring, displacement, Ethernet, expert system

Yong Zhan; Xianghong Yan; Hongmei Zhu; Yang Song

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

A forecasting solution to the oil spill problem based on a hybrid intelligent system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Oil spills represent one of the most destructive environmental disasters. Predicting the possibility of finding oil slicks in a certain area after an oil spill can be critical in reducing environmental risks. The system presented here uses the Case-Based ... Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, Ensembles, Fusion algorithms, Oil spill, Radial Basis Function, Self organizing memory

Bruno Baruque; Emilio Corchado; Aitor Mata; Juan M. Corchado

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a ...

David H. Bromwich; Andrew J. Monaghan; Kevin W. Manning; Jordan G. Powers

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

A 10-yr Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices with NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A plateau vortex refers to a shallow meso-?-scale cyclonic vortex that is usually confined to near-surface levels (500 hPa) over the Tibetan Plateau during warm seasons. It is the major precipitation-producing weather system over the plateau, but ...

Xinyuan Feng; Changhai Liu; Roy Rasmussen; Guangzhou Fan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

A 10-Year Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices with NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A plateau vortex refers to a shallow meso-?-scale cyclonic vortex that is usually confined to near surface levels (500 hPa) over the Tibetan Plateau during warm seasons. It is the major precipitation-producing weather system over the plateau, but ...

Xinyuan Feng; Changhai Liu; Roy Rasmussen; Guangzhou Fan

245

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

246

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Volume 1: Executive Summary  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 megawatts (MW) in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 Renewable Portfolio Standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forecasti...

2006-11-14T23:59:59.000Z

247

California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting System Development, Volume 4: California Wind Generation Research Dataset (CARD)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The rated capacity of wind generation in California is expected to grow rapidly in the future beyond the approximately 2100 megawatts in place at the end of 2005. The main drivers are the state's 20 percent renewable portfolio standard requirement in 2010 and the low cost of wind energy relative to other renewable energy sources. As wind is an intermittent generation resource and weather changes can cause large and rapid changes in output, system operators will need accurate and robust wind energy forec...

2006-11-13T23:59:59.000Z

248

The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Four aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Dropwindsonde ...

Sim D. Aberson

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Early Warnings of Severe Weather from Ensemble Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A system has been developed to give probabilistic warnings of severe-weather events for the United Kingdom (UK) on a regional and national basis, based on forecast output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ...

T. P. Legg; K. R. Mylne

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been proposed, and to choose ...

Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Downscaling Ensemble Weather Predictions for Improved Week-2 Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study investigates the use of large-scale ensemble weather predictions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System [GFS; formerly known as Medium-Range Forecast (MRF)] for improving week-2 ...

Xiaoli Liu; Paulin Coulibaly

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Verification of Eta–RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Motivated by the success of ensemble forecasting at the medium range, the performance of a prototype short-range ensemble forecast system is examined. The ensemble dataset consists of 15 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. There ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Assimilation of Standard and Targeted Observations within the Unstable Subspace of the Observation–Analysis–Forecast Cycle System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper it is shown that the flow-dependent instabilities that develop within an observation–analysis–forecast (OAF) cycle and that are responsible for the background error can be exploited in a very simple way to assimilate observations. ...

Anna Trevisan; Francesco Uboldi

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Near-Surface and Land Surface Forecast System of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution 2D near-surface and land surface model was developed to produce snow and temperature forecasts over the complex alpine region of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. The model is driven by downscaled ...

Natacha B. Bernier; Stéphane Bélair; Bernard Bilodeau; Linying Tong

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

A review of agent-based models for forecasting the deployment of distributed generation in energy systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Agent-based models are seeing increasing use in the study of distributed generation (DG) deployment. Researchers and decision makers involved in the implementation of DG have been lacking a concise overview of why they should consider using agent-based ... Keywords: agent-based modeling, consumer behavior, distributed generation, energy forecasting, product deployment

Jason G. Veneman; M. A. Oey; L. J. Kortmann; F. M. Brazier; L. J. de Vries

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA

Wu, Dekai

257

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

260

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Short Term Hourly Load Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

--Congestion forecasting, price forecasting, wholesale power market, locational marginal price, load partitioning, convex for system planning.1 Many studies have focused on electricity price forecasting based on statistical tools distributed loads and DC-OPF system variable solutions was identified and applied to forecast congestion

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

262

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

264

Weather Forecasts by the WRF-ARW Model with the GSI Data Assimilation System in the Complex Terrain Areas of Southwest Asia  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper will first describe the forecasting errors encountered from running the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model; ARW) in the complex terrain of ...

J. Xu; S. Rugg; L. Byerle; Z. Liu

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

On the Relationship between the Accuracy and Value of Forecasts in the Cost–Loss Ratio Situation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper explores the relationship between the quality and value of imperfect forecasts. It is assumed that these forecasts are produced by a primitive probabilistic forecasting system and that the decision-making problem of concern is the cost-...

Allan H. Murphy; Martin Ehrendorfer

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

268

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A high-resolution nested regional spectral model and an ensemble prediction system are combined to forecast the track, intensity, and flooding precipitation arising from Typhoon Winnie of August 1997, which eventually reached supertyphoon status. ...

Brian P. Mackey; T. N. Krishnamurti

2001-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Scientific Verification of Deterministic River Stage Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One element of a complete verification system is the ability to determine why forecasts behave as they do. This paper describes and demonstrates an operationally feasible method for conducting this type of diagnostic verification analysis. ...

Edwin Welles; Soroosh Sorooshian

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Computer Generation of Marine Weather Forecast Text  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

MARWORDS is a natural language text generation system which has been developed to synthesize marine forecasts for the Davis Strait area in Northern Canada. It uses standard manually produced predictions of wind speed, air temperature, and other ...

E. Goldberg; R. Kittredge; A. Polguère

1988-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Assessing the Usefulness of Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The errors in both the initialization and simulated evolution of weather and climate models create significant uncertainties in forecasts at lead times beyond a few days. Modern prediction systems sample the sources of these uncertainties to ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble forecasting systems often contain systematic biases and spread deficiencies that can be corrected by statistical postprocessing. This study presents an improvement to an ensemble statistical postprocessing technique, called ensemble ...

Bruce A. Veenhuis

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da (INPE) #12;Talk Outline CPTEC/INPE Operational Forecast Systems (time scales) Modeling Forecast-Brazil Space Sector Workshop, São José dos Campos 26 - 27 August. 2010 CPTEC: Forecasting Modeling Scales Time

274

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from for producing 150 draft forecasts per day, which are then post-edited by forecasters before being released

Sripada, Yaji

275

The IFF: The Isopycnal Float Fluorometer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An isopycnal float has been developed which provides a description of water parcel motion and simultaneous measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence, pressure and temperature along a chosen isopycnal surface. The device consists of a modified ...

Gary L. Hitchcock; E. J. Lessard; D. Dorson; J. Fontaine; T. Rossby

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

277

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

280

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP FDP) aimed to demonstrate the utility and impact of modern nowcast systems. The project focused on the use of radar processing systems and ...

Peter T. May; Thomas D. Keenan; Rod Potts; James W. Wilson; Rob Webb; Andrew Treloar; Elly Spark; Sue Lawrence; Elizabeth Ebert; John Bally; Paul Joe

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Combining artificial neural networks and statistics for stock-market forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have developed a stock-market forecasting system based on artificial neural networks. The system has been trained with the Standard & Poor 500 composite indexes of past twenty years. Meanwhile, the system produces the forecasts and adjusts ...

Shaun-Inn Wu; Ruey-Pyng Lu

1993-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

287

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

288

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

A non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In addition to structural measures, governmental authorities have set up flood forecasting systems to be used as early warning systems, to minimize the damage of future floods. These flood forecasting systems make use of hydrological and hydrodynamic ... Keywords: Non parametric approach, Operational flood forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting, Uncertainty estimation

N. Van Steenbergen; J. Ronsyn; P. Willems

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

290

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

The Joy of Stochastic Forecasting: An Overview of the Stochastic...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

especially when clustered with loads in locally controlled buildings scale microgrids. He also leads forecasting work using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and...

292

Economic Impacts of Advanced Weather Forecasting on Energy ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 5, 2010 ... Abstract: We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the ...

293

Exploiting Weather Forecast Information in the Operation of ...  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Mar 4, 2009 ... On-Line Economic Optimization of Energy Systems Using Weather Forecast Information. Victor M Zavala (vzavala ***at*** mcs.anl.gov)

294

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sørensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

Quantitative Flood Forecasting on Small- and Medium-Sized Basins: A Probabilistic Approach for Operational Purposes  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The forecast of rainfall-driven floods is one of the main themes of analysis in hydrometeorology and a critical issue for civil protection systems. This work describes a complete hydrometeorological forecast system for small- and medium-sized ...

Francesco Silvestro; Nicola Rebora; Luca Ferraris

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

300

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Bias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some unexpected and striking ...

Yun Fan; Huug van den Dool

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The regional single-model-based Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS to investigate the ...

Yong Wang; Simona Tascu; Florian Weidle; Karin Schmeisser

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.  

SciTech Connect

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

306

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

307

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

308

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

311

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

313

GSI 3DVar-based Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single Resolution Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter-variational hybrid data assimilation system based on the grid point statistical interpolation (GSI) three dimensional variational (3DVar) system was developed. The performance of the system was investigated using the ...

Xuguang Wang; David Parrish; Daryl Kleist; Jeffrey Whitaker

314

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

317

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Large Forecast Degradations due to Synoptic Surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Seasons  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Though operational tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance generally leads to smaller track forecast errors in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecasting System (GFS) than would occur otherwise, not every case is ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the Warm Season: A USWRP Research and Development Strategy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Warm-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are the poorest performance area of forecast systems worldwide. They stubbornly fall further behind while other aspects of weather prediction steadily improve. Unless a major effort is ...

J. Michael Fritsch; R. E. Carbone

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

An Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive ...

R. Sharman; C. Tebaldi; G. Wiener; J. Wolff

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part I: Two-Meter Temperatures  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produced a reforecast dataset for a 2005 version of their ensemble forecast system. The dataset consisted of 15-member reforecasts conducted for the 20-yr period 1982–2001, ...

Renate Hagedorn; Thomas M. Hamill; Jeffrey S. Whitaker

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Impacts of Forecaster Involvement on Convective Storm Initiation and Evolution Nowcasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A forecaster-interactive capability was added to an automated convective storm nowcasting system [Auto-Nowcaster (ANC)] to allow forecasters to enhance the performance of 1-h nowcasts of convective storm initiation and evolution produced every 6 ...

Rita D. Roberts; Amanda R. S. Anderson; Eric Nelson; Barbara G. Brown; James W. Wilson; Matthew Pocernich; Thomas Saxen

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Monthly Forecast of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Using a Coupled GCM  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its ...

Frédéric Vitart; Steve Woolnough; M. A. Balmaseda; A. M. Tompkins

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

High-Resolution GFS-Based MOS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts on a 4-km Grid  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed high-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS)-based model output statistics (MOS) 6- and 12-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) guidance on ...

Jerome P. Charba; Frederick G. Samplatsky

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Summer Rainfall Forecast Spread in an Ensemble Initialized with Different Soil Moisture Analyses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble forecasting system initialized using varied soil moisture alone has been evaluated for rainfall forecasts of six warm season convective cases. Ten different soil moisture analyses were used as initial conditions in ...

Eric A. Aligo; William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model–based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate ...

Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Joshua K. Roundy; Ming Pan

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Verification of Cloud Forecasts over the Eastern Pacific Using Passive Satellite Retrievals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Operational cloud forecasts generated by the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) were verified over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The study focused on the accuracy of cloud forecasts associated with extratropical cyclone ...

Jason E. Nachamkin; Jerome Schmidt; Cristian Mitrescu

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

Cañizares, Claudio A.

329

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems

330

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison Luke, University of Stuttgart May 16, 2012 Abstract When faced with the task of forecasting a dynamic system intuition dictates that perfect knowledge of the system should in theory yield perfect forecasting, often

Steinwart, Ingo

331

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analyst’s earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts ’ earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

An Examination of WRF 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation on Its Capability in Retrieving Unobserved Variables and Forecasting Precipitation through Observing System Simulation Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of 3DVAR radar data assimilation in terms of the retrievals of convective fields and their impact on subsequent quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). An assimilation methodology ...

Soichiro Sugimoto; N. Andrew Crook; Juanzhen Sun; Qingnong Xiao; Dale M. Barker

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Mesoscale Convective Systems in Weakly Forced Large-Scale Environments. Part III: Numerical Simulations and Implications for Operational Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During a 24-h period, beginning 1200 UTC 11 May 1982, a series of mesoscale convective systems developed within a weakly forced large-scale environment. Two of these systems had a large component of motion against the midtropospheric flow and ...

David J. Stensrud; J. Michael Fritsch

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

337

Three Years of Operational Prediction of Forecast Skill at NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In real time since 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) has been running a system to predict the forecast skill of the medium-range forecasts produced by the NMC global spectral model. The predictors used are the agreement of an ...

Richard L. Wobus; Eugenia Kalnay

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

A Comprehensive Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecasts over the Tropics  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The 15-member ensemble hindcasts performed with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS) for the period 1981–2005, as well as real-time forecasts for the period 2006–09, are assessed for seasonal prediction ...

K. P. Sooraj; H. Annamalai; Arun Kumar; Hui Wang

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

339

On Modeling and Forecasting Time Series of Smooth Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

/fertility rate curves (Hyndman and Ullah, 2007; Erbas et al., 2007). Other examples include electricity system the rates are unobservable; hence one needs to forecast future rate profiles based on historical call of telephone customer service centers, where forecasts of daily call arrival rate profiles are needed

Shen, Haipeng

340

Chaotic time series forecasting using locally quadratic fuzzy neural models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time series forecasting in highly nonlinear and chaotic systems is a challenging research area with a variety of applications in economics, environmental sciences and various fields of engineering. This paper presents a novel Locally Quadratic Fuzzy ... Keywords: chaotic time series, forecasting, locally quadratic neural fuzzy model

Mohammad J. Mahjoob; Majid Abdollahzade; Reza Zarringhalam; Ahmad Kalhor

2008-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Aspects of Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0–48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for 129 cases over the ...

F. Anthony Eckel; Clifford F. Mass

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Enhancements to ANNSTLF, EPRI's Short Term Load Forecaster  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Reliable hourly load forecasts are important to electric utilities, power marketers, energy service providers, and independent system operators. To meet this need, EPRI's Artificial Neural Net Short Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF), which is already implemented at more than thirty-five utilities, was recently enhanced for greater accuracy and user friendliness.

1997-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

343

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

344

An Operational Dynamical Downscaling Prediction System for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002–04 Real-Time Forecast Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) and Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME) in Brazil have developed a dynamical downscaling prediction system for Northeast Brazil (the Nordeste) and have ...

Liqiang Sun; Huilan Li; Stephen E. Zebiak; David F. Moncunill; Francisco D. A. D. S. Filho; Antonio D. Moura

2006-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

Potential Benefits of Using Probabilistic Forecasts for Waves and Marine Winds Based on the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential benefits of using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for waves and marine surface winds are demonstrated using buoy and platform data as well as altimeter data.

Øyvind Saetra; Jean-Raymond Bidlot

2004-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Coarse Graining the Vorticity Equation in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: The Search for Kinetic Energy Backscatter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter parameterization schemes are now widely used in ensemble prediction systems to account for random error associated with excessive dissipation and unrepresented energy backscatter in numerical weather ...

G. J. Shutts

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective Storm Nowcasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Five of the nowcasting systems that were available during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) were selected for evaluation. These systems, from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, had the capability to nowcast ...

James W. Wilson; Elizabeth E. Ebert; Thomas R. Saxen; Rita D. Roberts; Cynthia K. Mueller; Michael Sleigh; Clive E. Pierce; Alan Seed

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

349

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

350

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

351

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

352

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

353

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

354

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional ... Keywords: Biogeochemical cycles, Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, Regional ocean prediction, Sea ice modeling, Split-explicit time stepping

D. B. Haidvogel; H. Arango; W. P. Budgell; B. D. Cornuelle; E. Curchitser; E. Di Lorenzo; K. Fennel; W. R. Geyer; A. J. Hermann; L. Lanerolle; J. Levin; J. C. McWilliams; A. J. Miller; A. M. Moore; T. M. Powell; A. F. Shchepetkin; C. R. Sherwood; R. P. Signell; J. C. Warner; J. Wilkin

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

357

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

358

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large

Hamill, Tom

359

Guidelines for Financial Forecasting with Neural Networks JingTao YAO  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the observed movements. For instance, the forecasting of stock prices can be described in this way. Assume], foreign exchange rates forecasting [15, 24], option prices [25], advertising and sales volumes [13Guidelines for Financial Forecasting with Neural Networks JingTao YAO Dept of Information Systems

Yao, JingTao

360

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Neural-wavelet Methodology for Load Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Intelligent demand-side management represents a future trend of power system regulation. A key issue in intelligent demand-side management is accurate prediction of load within a local area grid (LAG), which is defined as a set of customers with an appropriate ... Keywords: load forecasting, load identification, neural-wavelet

Rong Gao; Lefteri H. Tsoukalas

2001-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

364

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Practice Prize Paper---PIN Optimal Distribution of Auction Vehicles System: Applying Price Forecasting, Elasticity Estimation, and Genetic Algorithms to Used-Vehicle Distribution  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In addition to retailing new vehicles, automotive manufacturers in the United States sell millions of vehicles through leasing and to fleet customers every year. The majority of these vehicles are returned to the automotive manufacturers at the end of ... Keywords: auction price, distribution, forecasting, optimization, used vehicle

Jie Du; Lili Xie; Stephan Schroeder

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

370

A Multigrid Wave Forecasting Model: A New Paradigm in Operational Wave Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new operational wave forecasting system has been implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) using the third public release of WAVEWATCH III. The new system uses a mosaic of grids with two-way nesting in a single ...

Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; Vera Gerald; Deanna Spindler; Todd Spindler; Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Degui Cao; Jeffrey L. Hanson; Eve-Marie Devaliere

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

372

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for ‘normal forces ’ and the one for ‘break drivers’, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the University of Washington Probability Forecast (PROBCAST), a Web-based portal to probabilistic weather predictions over the Pacific Northwest. PROBCAST products are derived from the output of a mesoscale ensemble system ...

Clifford Mass; Jeff Baars; Susan Joslyn; John Pyle; Patrick Tewson; David Jones; Tilmann Gneiting; Adrian Raftery; J. M. Sloughter; Chris Fraley

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

An Hourly Assimilation–Forecast Cycle: The RUC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysis–forecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Dezsö Dévényi; Stephen S. Weygandt; Kevin J. Brundage; John M. Brown; Georg A. Grell; Dongsoo Kim; Barry E. Schwartz; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Tracy Lorraine Smith; Geoffrey S. Manikin

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Atmospheric Moisture and Cloud Cover Characteristics Forecast by AMPS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) forecasts of atmospheric moisture and cloud fraction (CF) are compared with observations at McMurdo and Amundsen–Scott South Pole station (hereafter, South Pole station) in Antarctica. Overall, it is ...

Ryan L. Fogt; David H. Bromwich

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using the recently developed mean–variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from ...

Zak Kipling; Cristina Primo; Andrew Charlton-Perez

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the ...

Edith Brown Weiss

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Shipping source level estimation for ambient noise forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The ability to accurately estimate shipping source levels from ambient noise data is an essential step towards creating a forecast model of the ocean soundscape. Source level estimates can be obtained by solving the system of linear equations

Jeffrey S. Rogers; Steven L. Means; Stephen C. Wales

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Evaluation of Prototypical Climate Forecasts: The Sufficiency Relation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sufficiency relation, originally developed in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, provides a sound basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. The importance of this relation resides in the fact that if ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As a natural phenomenon, drought can have devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine in the developing world such as Africa. In this study, we have established a seasonal hydrologic forecasting system over Africa. ...

Xing Yuan; Eric F. Wood; Nathaniel W. Chaney; Justin Sheffield; Jonghun Kam; Miaoling Liang; Kaiyu Guan

382

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

383

Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S. [La Trobe Univ., Melbourne (Australia). Applied Computing Research Inst.

1999-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range ...

Thomas R. Saxen; Cynthia K. Mueller; Thomas T. Warner; Matthias Steiner; Edward E. Ellison; Eric W. Hatfield; Terri L. Betancourt; Susan M. Dettling; Niles A. Oien

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Accuracy of RUC-1 and RUC-2 Wind and Aircraft Trajectory Forecasts by Comparison with ACARS Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As part of an investigation into terminal airspace productivity sponsored by the NASA Ames Research Center, a study was performed at the Forecast Systems Laboratory to investigate sources of wind forecast error and to assess differences in wind ...

Barry E. Schwartz; Stanley G. Benjamin; Steven M. Green; Matthew R. Jardin

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first… (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis  

SciTech Connect

This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

1980-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

391

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, ¥oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frédéric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

402

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

403

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? ” The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 – 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

405

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

408

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

409

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

415

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

416

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

417

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

418

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part II: Interrange Comparison of the Accuracy of Model Analyses and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study builds upon previous efforts to document the performance of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather Modeling System using conventional metrics. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity were verified for ...

Yubao Liu; Thomas T. Warner; Elford G. Astling; James F. Bowers; Christopher A. Davis; Scott F. Halvorson; Daran L. Rife; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Scott P. Swerdlin; Mei Xu

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2006  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation.

2006-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

420

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2005  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation. The project objective is to summarize the results o...

2006-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The imminent introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into the automotive marketplace has the potential to dramatically affect electricity service providers. The vehicles will require infrastructure that facilitates recharging, and the resulting electric load could have a combination of positive and negative effects on utility systems. To characterize the effects, it is necessary to forecast the size of the PEV fleet and its electricity consumption. The electricity use must be analyzed over long ...

2010-12-22T23:59:59.000Z

422

Wind forecasting objectives for utility schedulers and energy traders  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The wind energy industry and electricity producers can benefit in a number of ways from increased wind forecast accuracy. Higher confidence in the reliability of wind forecasts can help persuade an electric utility to increase the penetration of wind energy into its operating system and to augment the capacity value of wind electric generation. Reliable forecasts can also assist daily energy traders employed by utilities in marketing the available and anticipated wind energy to power pools and other energy users. As the number of utilities with wind energy experience grows, and wind energy penetration levels increase, the need for reliable wind forecasts will likely grow as well. This period of wind energy growth also coincides with advances in computer weather prediction technology that could lead to more accurate wind forecasts. Thus, it is important to identify the type of forecast information needed by utility schedulers and energy traders. This step will help develop approaches to the challenge of wind forecasting that will result in useful products being supplied to utilities or other energy generating entities. This paper presents the objectives, approach, and current findings of a US Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) initiative to develop useful wind forecasting tools for utilities involved with wind energy generation. The focus of this initiative thus far has been to learn about the needs of prospective utility users. NREL representatives conducted a series of onsite interviews with key utility staff, usually schedulers and research planners, at seven US utilities. The purpose was to ascertain information on actual scheduling and trading procedures, and how utilities could integrate wind forecasting into these activities.

Schwartz, M.N. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Bailey, B.H. [AWS Scientific, Inc., Albany, NY (United States)

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

The possible reasons for the misrepresented long-term climate trends in the seasonal forecasts of HFP2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-year multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin

424

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, Ozone Ensemble Forecast with Machine Learning Algorithms  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, Ozone Ensemble Forecast with Machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

425

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

426

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

427

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

429

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

430

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

431

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

433

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

434

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

435

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

436

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

437

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (“locality”), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Operational pollution forecast for the region of Bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational prototype of the Integrated Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System is presented. This version of the system is limited to relatively low resolution (10 km) but covers all Bulgaria. It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System (MM5

D. Syrakov; I. Etropolska; M. Prodanova; K. Ganev; N. Miloshev; K. Slavov

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Impact of Wind PowerImpact of Wind Power Forecasting on Unit Commitment and Dispatchp Jianhui Wang and University of Porto, Portugal 8th Int. Wind Integration Workshop, Bremen, Germany, Oct. 14 2009 #12;Outline of the information in wind power forecasts in system and market operationsin system and market operations Stochastic

Hudson, Randy

446

Artificial Intelligence technique for modelling and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been used and applied in different sectors, such as engineering, economic, medicine, military, marine, etc. AI has also been applied for modelling, identification, optimisation, prediction, forecasting, and control ... Keywords: AI, FPGA, GAs, VHDL, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, hybrid systems, neural networks, photovoltaic systems, solar radiation forecasting, solar radiation modelling, solar radiation prediction

Adel Mellit

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Probabilistic aspects of meteorological and ozone regional ensemble forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This study investigates whether probabilistic ozone forecasts from an ensemble can be made with skill; i.e., high verification resolution and reliability. Twenty-eight ozone forecasts were generated over the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, for the 5-day period 11-15 August 2004, and compared with 1-hour averaged measurements of ozone concentrations at five stations. The forecasts were obtained by driving the CMAQ model with four meteorological forecasts and seven emission scenarios: a control run, {+-} 50% NO{sub x}, {+-} 50% VOC, and {+-} 50% NO{sub x} combined with VOC. Probabilistic forecast quality is verified using relative operating characteristic curves, Talagrand diagrams, and a new reliability index. Results show that both meteorology and emission perturbations are needed to have a skillful probabilistic forecast system--the meteorology perturbation is important to capture the ozone temporal and spatial distribution, and the emission perturbation is needed to span the range of ozone-concentration magnitudes. Emission perturbations are more important than meteorology perturbations for capturing the likelihood of high ozone concentrations. Perturbations involving NO{sub x} resulted in a more skillful probabilistic forecast for the episode analyzed, and therefore the 50% perturbation values appears to span much of the emission uncertainty for this case. All of the ensembles analyzed show a high ozone concentration bias in the Talagrand diagrams, even when the biases from the unperturbed emissions forecasts are removed from all ensemble members. This result indicates nonlinearity in the ensemble, which arises from both ozone chemistry and its interaction with input from particular meteorological models.

Monache, L D; Hacker, J; Zhou, Y; Deng, X; Stull, R

2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

449

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecasters—and between forecasters and users—regarding the meaning of the phrase “good (bad) weather forecasts.” These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

455

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

456

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

457

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting” in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations”, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system iffs" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109—129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

468

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

469

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

The Value of ENSO Forecast Information to Dual-Purpose Winter Wheat Production in the U.S. Southern High Plains  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The value of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast information to southern high plains winter wheat and cattle-grazing production systems was estimated here by simulation. Although previous work has calculated average forecast value, the ...

Steve Mauget; John Zhang; Jonghan Ko

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2002), 128, pp. 285321 In uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems By R. E. MORSS¤ and K. A. EMANUEL Massachusetts Institute to improve individual forecasts have shown a mix of positive, negative, and neutral results. In this study, the in uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors is explored in idealized systems

Emanuel, Kerry A.

472

Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

473

A.: Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A utilizes differencing, while Model B uses a recently developed seasonal volatility technique. In both models the stochastic component is described by an ARMA time series. Models are tested on a time series of system-wide loads from the California power market and compared with the official forecast of the California System Operator (CAISO). 1.

Rafa? Weron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

475

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

477

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Non-stationary Signal Forecasting by Neural Network with Modified Neurons  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the non-stationary power signal forecasting by using a neural network with modified neurons for PJM data set provided by Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO). In this data set, the load information is the sum of power load ... Keywords: load, forecasting, neural model, modified neurons

Chih-Chien Huang; Yi-Ching Lin; Yu-Ju Chen; Shuming T. Wang; Rey-Chue Hwang

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Optimizing the extreme learning machine using harmony search for hydrologic time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Lately, the research related to time series forecasting has been an area of considerable interest in different fields. It is very important to predict the behavior of the time series but it is not an easy task. Several models to aim this issue have been ... Keywords: extreme learning machine, harmony search, hybrid intelligent system, time series forecasting

Ivna Valença; Mêuser Valença

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

A Quick Guide to Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used

Kemner, Ken

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481

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model developed for industrial energy analysis at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Although the results are mixed, generally ITEMS show greater penetration of energy efficient technologies and thus lower energy use, even though the business as usual forecasts for ITEMS uses a higher discount rate than NEMS uses.

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

2000-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PV penetration while maintaing relatively low cost and high reliabilityflexibility and reliability [6, 7]. As a result, PV systems

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

489

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

490

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

499

Comparison of Energy Information Administration and Bonneville Power Administration load forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Comparisons of the modeling methodologies underlying the project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) and the Bonneville Power Administration forecasts are discussed in this paper. This Technical Memorandum is presented in order to reconcile apparent inconsistencies between the forecasts. These represent different purposes for the modeling effort as well as different forecasts. Nonetheless, both are appropriate within the context that they are intended. The BPA forecasts are site-specific, detailed, micro-level, yearly forecasts of the demand for electricity. PIES develops regional, macro forecasts and does not contain estimates of the timing of the completion of plants within the period of the forecast. The BPA forecast is intended to be utilized in analyzing a sub-regional capacity expansion program. PIES is a regional energy market-clearing, non-normative model which allows different scenarios to be compared by changing input variables. Clearly, both forecasts are dependent upon the accuracy of the assumptions and input variables included. However, the differing levels of aggregation and objectives require different types of input variables.

Reed, H.J.

1978-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.