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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

The 1st Joint International Conference on Multibody System Dynamics May 2527, 2010, Lappeenranta, Finland  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The 1st Joint International Conference on Multibody System Dynamics May 25­27, 2010, Lappeenrantast Joint International Conference on Multibody System Dynamics (IMSD'10)., Lappeenranta : Finland

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

2

M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics: Closed Systems 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics: Closed Systems 1 The First Law of Thermodynamics: Closed Systems The first law of thermodynamics can be simply is negative. #12; M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics: Closed

Bahrami, Majid

3

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

4

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

5

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

6

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Jos V. Segura

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Embedded Systems Design with Platform FPGAs: Principles and Practices, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This book will introduce professional engineers and students alike to system development using Platform FPGAs. The focus is on embedded systems but it also serves as a general guide to building custom computing systems. The text describes the fundamental ...

Ronald Sass; Andrew G. Schmidt

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Modern Embedded Computing: Designing Connected, Pervasive, Media-Rich Systems, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Modern embedded systems are used for connected, media-rich, and highly integrated handheld devices such as mobile phones, digital cameras, and MP3 players. All of these embedded systems require networking, graphic user interfaces, and integration with ...

Peter Barry; Patrick Crowley

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Usability in Government Systems: User Experience Design for Citizens and Public Servants, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As a usability specialist or interaction designer working with the government, or as a government or contractor professional involved in specifying, procuring, or managing system development, you need this book. Editors Elizabeth Buie and Dianne Murray ...

Elizabeth Buie; Dianne Murray

2012-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

13

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

17

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

18

Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st Year Sum. __________ (year)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Name Major Student ID Advisor 1st Year Fall __________ (year) 1st Year Spr. __________ (year) 1st) Projected Graduation Date SUBJECT SUBJECT CR. HRS. SUBJECT COURSE # CR. HRS. Advisor Signature Date Student

Barrash, Warren

19

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

23

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Connecticut's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources |...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

and Hydrogen Inc LiquidPiston Inc Nxegen SmartPower United Technologies Corp Registered Financial Organizations in Connecticut's 1st congressional district The Hartford Retrieved...

26

Proceedings of the 1st Nordic Feed  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proceedings of the 1st Nordic Feed Science Conference, Uppsala, Sweden Institutionen för husdjurens Department of Animal Nutrition and Management ISSN 0347-9838 ISRN SLU-HUV-R-274-SE #12;#12;Proceedings of the 1st Nordic Feed Science Conference 22 ­ 23 of June 2010 Uppsala Sweden Institutionen för husdjurens

27

Program Update: 1st Quarter 2013 | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

1st Quarter 2013 1st Quarter 2013 Program Update: 1st Quarter 2013 Inside this Update: Abandoned Uranium Mines Report to Congress: LM Wants Your Input; LM Discusses Management of LTS&M Records; LM Launches New Website Under energy.gov; Biological Monitoring at Amchitka Appears to Show Impacts from Fukushima Dai-ichi Incident; Completion of the CERCLA Natural Resource Damage Process at the Rocky Flats Site; Environmental Justice Activities; Mound Museum Volunteers: Preserving a Laboratory's Legacy; DOE Evaluates Environmental Impacts of Uranium Mining on Government Land in Western Colorado; Solar Photovoltaic System at Tuba City Site; and more. The Program Update newsletter is produced every quarter and highlights major activities and events that occurred across the DOE complex during

28

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Boards long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Sld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Arizona's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Contents Contents 1 Registered Research Institutions in Arizona's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Networking Organizations in Arizona's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in Arizona's 1st congressional district 4 Energy Generation Facilities in Arizona's 1st congressional district Registered Research Institutions in Arizona's 1st congressional district Northern Arizona University Registered Networking Organizations in Arizona's 1st congressional district Distributed Wind Energy Association Registered Energy Companies in Arizona's 1st congressional district Coolidge Petrosun Optimum Biodiesel Plant EV Solar Products Pacific Blue Energy Southwest Wind Power Southwest Windpower Inc Sunshine Arizona Wind Energy LLC Energy Generation Facilities in Arizona's 1st congressional district

31

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

33

Nebraska's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Nebraska. Nebraska. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Nebraska's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Research Institutions in Nebraska's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in Nebraska's 1st congressional district 4 Utility Companies in Nebraska's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Nebraska's 1st congressional district Cuming County Public Power District Smart Grid Project Stanton County Public Power District Smart Grid Project Registered Research Institutions in Nebraska's 1st congressional district University of Nebraska-Lincoln and University of Florida (Building Energy Efficient Homes for America) Registered Energy Companies in Nebraska's 1st congressional district Axis Technologies Group Inc

34

California's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

California. California. Contents 1 Registered Research Institutions in California's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Policy Organizations in California's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in California's 1st congressional district 4 Energy Generation Facilities in California's 1st congressional district Registered Research Institutions in California's 1st congressional district California Lighting Technology Center (University of California, Davis) Western Cooling Efficiency Center Registered Policy Organizations in California's 1st congressional district California Fuel Cell Partnership Solar Living Institute Registered Energy Companies in California's 1st congressional district AMG Energy Advanced Energy Products Advanced Energy Products Corp AEP

35

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAAs National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEPs regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

POLICY NAME 1ST READING BY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

POLICY NAME 1ST READING BY FACULTY SENATE APPROVED BY FACULTY SENATE POSTED FOR PUBLIC COMMENT APPROVED BY PRES or PROVOST ADOPTED FINAL POLICY DESTINATION Student Pregnancy Leave Pending Regents Professor (Version 1) 01/26/2011 04/27/2011 Regents Professor (Version 2) 04/12/2012 Revised Policy

Maxwell, Bruce D.

37

October 1st Hamilton Convention Centre  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

October 1st & 2nd , 2010 Hamilton Convention Centre 1 Summers Lane, Hamilton ON ANGELA SILLA, EventMaster University, Hamilton Brian Leber, MDCM, FRCPC Professor Division of Hematology & Thromboembolsim Department of Medicine McMaster University, Hamilton Peter Powers, MD, FRCPC Associate Professor Division of Hematology

Hitchcock, Adam P.

38

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.

LI De-shun; XU Kai-li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Oregon's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Oregon's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Oregon's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Oregon. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Oregon's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Research Institutions in Oregon's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Policy Organizations in Oregon's 1st congressional district 4 Registered Energy Companies in Oregon's 1st congressional district 5 Registered Financial Organizations in Oregon's 1st congressional district 6 Utility Companies in Oregon's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Oregon's 1st congressional district Pacific Northwest Generating Cooperative Smart Grid Project

42

Idaho's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Idaho's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Idaho's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Idaho. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Idaho's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Research Institutions in Idaho's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in Idaho's 1st congressional district 4 Energy Generation Facilities in Idaho's 1st congressional district 5 Utility Companies in Idaho's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Idaho's 1st congressional district Idaho Power Company Smart Grid Project M2M Communications Smart Grid Project Registered Research Institutions in Idaho's 1st congressional district

43

Washington's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1st congressional district: Energy Resources 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Washington. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Washington's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Networking Organizations in Washington's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in Washington's 1st congressional district 4 Registered Financial Organizations in Washington's 1st congressional district 5 Utility Companies in Washington's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Washington's 1st congressional district Snohomish County Public Utilities District Smart Grid Project Registered Networking Organizations in Washington's 1st congressional

44

Colorado's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Colorado's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Colorado's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Colorado. Contents 1 Registered Research Institutions in Colorado's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Networking Organizations in Colorado's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Policy Organizations in Colorado's 1st congressional district 4 Registered Energy Companies in Colorado's 1st congressional district 5 Registered Financial Organizations in Colorado's 1st congressional district 6 Energy Incentives for Colorado's 1st congressional district Registered Research Institutions in Colorado's 1st congressional district Colorado Renewable Energy Collaboratory

45

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

46

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the publics preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Weather Forecasting System Based on Satellite Imageries Using Neuro-fuzzy Techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have built an automated Satellite Images Forecasting System with Neuro-Fuzzy techniques. Firstly, Subtractive Clustering is applied on to a satellite image to extract the locations of the clouds. This is follo...

Chien-Wan Tham; Sion-Hui Tian; Liya Ding

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Static Forecasting of the Execution Times of Complexes of Interrelated Jobs in the Multiprocessor Computer Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Consideration was given to a procedure of approximate forecasting of the execution times of the complexes of interrelated jobs in the multiprocessor computer systems with the Erlangian execution time of each j...

N. N. Ivanov; V. V. Ignatushchenko; A. Yu. Mikhailov

50

Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Energy Companies in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Financial Organizations in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district 4 Utility Companies in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district PECO Energy Company Smart Grid Project Registered Energy Companies in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district Advanced Renewables LLC Aircuity Inc AlumiFuel Power Inc Biofuel Advanced Research and Development LLC BARD BlackGold Biofuels Blue Hill Investment Partners LLC CDI Corporation Chameleon Optics Inc Clean Markets Energy Cooperative Association of Pennsylvania

51

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Mexico's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Mexico's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in New Mexico. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in New Mexico's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Research Institutions in New Mexico's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Energy Companies in New Mexico's 1st congressional district 4 Energy Generation Facilities in New Mexico's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in New Mexico's 1st congressional district Ktech Corporation Smart Grid Demonstration Project Public Service Company of New Mexico Smart Grid Demonstration Project Registered Research Institutions in New Mexico's 1st congressional district

53

Louisiana's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1st congressional district 1st congressional district 2 Registered Energy Companies in Louisiana's 1st congressional district 3 Energy Incentives for Louisiana's 1st congressional district 4 Utility Companies in Louisiana's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Louisiana's 1st congressional district Entergy New Orleans, Inc. Smart Grid Project Entergy Services, Inc. Smart Grid Project Registered Energy Companies in Louisiana's 1st congressional district GT Energy Green Coast Enterprises New Orleans Preservation Research Center Sun Energy Group LLC Wayne Troyer & Associates Energy Incentives for Louisiana's 1st congressional district Climate Action Plan (New Orleans) JOB1 Workforce Development and Business Support (New Orleans, Louisiana) Net Metering (New Orleans, Louisiana)

54

Maine's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Maine's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Maine's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Maine. Contents 1 US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Maine's 1st congressional district 2 Registered Energy Companies in Maine's 1st congressional district 3 Registered Financial Organizations in Maine's 1st congressional district 4 Utility Companies in Maine's 1st congressional district US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Maine's 1st congressional district Central Maine Power Company Smart Grid Project Registered Energy Companies in Maine's 1st congressional district Ascendant Energy Company Inc Criterium Engineers International WoodFuels LLC

55

REPORT from 1st Annual World Congress of BIOENERGY ,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

REPORT from 1st Annual World Congress of BIOENERGY , DALIAN, CHINA Dr. Efstratios Kalogirou Earth of SYNERGIA (WTERT Greece) participated in the successful 1st Annual World Congress of BIOENERGY, held between

56

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Xie, Jinxing

59

1st Mile | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Mile Mile Jump to: navigation, search Name 1st Mile Place Lyngby, Denmark Zip 2800 Product Denmark-based company that provides research and screening for venture capitalists. Website http://www.1stmile.dk/ Coordinates 56.866669°, 8.31667° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":56.866669,"lon":8.31667,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

60

Kansas's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1st congressional district: Energy Resources 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Kansas. US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Kansas's 1st congressional district Midwest Energy Inc. Smart Grid Project Registered Energy Companies in Kansas's 1st congressional district Conestoga Energy Partners LLC ESE Alcohol Gateway Ethanol LLC formerly Wildcat Bio Energy LLC Kansas Ethanol LLC Nesika Energy LLC Orion Ethanol Reeve Agri Energy Inc Western Plains Energy LLC Utility Companies in Kansas's 1st congressional district Midwest Energy Inc Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Kansas%27s_1st_congressional_district&oldid=189120

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 45 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced ...

Dustan M. Wheatley; Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Ohio's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Ohio. Registered Energy Companies in Ohio's 1st congressional district AHL-TECH Ameridian Speciality Services CECO Environmental Corp CMC BMC Utility Products Cinergy Ventures II...

63

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

64

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system will implement a feature-oriented initialization scheme for both west coast ROMS and HOPS. The large Feature oriented Initialization Procedure development (ROMS and HOPS) Initialization Sensitivity runs

Gangopadhyay, Avijit

65

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

Bertossi, Leopoldo

66

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Missouri's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1st congressional district: Energy Resources 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Missouri. US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Missouri's 1st congressional district The Boeing Company Smart Grid Demonstration Project Registered Energy Companies in Missouri's 1st congressional district A2Wind Limited Affinity Wind LLC Akermin Inc Armstrong Teasdale Future Energy Group Clean Power Design CleanTech Biofuels Confluence Solar International Fuel Technology Inc Secure Energy Inc Solar Night Industries Inc Solutia Wind Capital Group Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Missouri%27s_1st_congressional_district&oldid=194597

68

03/0924 1 st INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON THE USE OF AQUATIC MACROPKYTES FOR WASTEWATER  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Filters (RBF). "Rustic" and rather simple wastewater treatment systems for such small communities in rural03/0924 1 st INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON THE USE OF AQUATIC MACROPKYTES FOR WASTEWATER TREATMENT IN CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS £-10 CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR WASTEWATER TREATMENT : THE FRENCH EXPERIENCE Catherine

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

69

North Carolina's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

st congressional district: Energy Resources st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in North Carolina. Registered Policy Organizations in North Carolina's 1st congressional district The Biofuels Center of North Carolina Registered Energy Companies in North Carolina's 1st congressional district Biofuels Center of North Carolina Field Controls Torpedo Speciality Wire Inc Energy Generation Facilities in North Carolina's 1st congressional district Craven County Biomass Facility Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=North_Carolina%27s_1st_congressional_district&oldid=196349" Categories: Places Stubs Congressional Districts

70

Nevada's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1st congressional district: Energy Resources 1st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Nevada. US Recovery Act Smart Grid Projects in Nevada's 1st congressional district NV Energy, Inc. Smart Grid Project Registered Energy Companies in Nevada's 1st congressional district Algodyne Ethanol Energy Inc Bio Solutions Manufacturing Inc Innovative Energy Solutions Inc Li ion Motors Corp formerly EV Innovations Inc Merlin Contracting Power Efficiency Corporation PEFF Powered by Renewables formerly Nevada Wind Renewable Capital Renewable Energy Resources Inc Renewable Powertech Inc Sol-Up USA, LLC Summit Energy Ventures LLC UNLV Center for Energy Research CER

71

1st Women-VetsinTech Hackathon @ Facebook  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The 1st EVER Women-VetsinTech hackathon @ Facebook will be a shortened version of the VetsinTech popular weekend event but will be action packed with goal of getting to a MVP (minimum viable...

72

Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80 m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to ...

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

73

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate pickups. This work describes an artificial intelligence method to aid the operator in taking decisions during system restoration by estimating residential load behaviour parameters such as overload in buses and the necessary time to recover steady-state power consumption. This method uses a fuzzy rule-based system to forecast the residential load, obtaining correct estimates with low computational cost. Test results using actual substation data are presented.

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Enterprise Mac Managed Preferences, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Many systems administrators on the Mac need a way to manage machine configuration after initial setup and deployment. Apples Managed Preferences system (also known as MCX) is under-documented, often misunderstood, and sometimes outright unknown by sys ...

Edward Marczak; Greg Neagle

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

78

BBO-based small autonomous hybrid power system optimization incorporating wind speed and solar radiation forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Rising carbon emission or carbon footprint imposes grave concern over the earth?s climatic condition, as it results in increasing average global temperature. Renewable energy sources seem to be the favorable solution in this regard. It can reduce the overall energy consumption rate globally. However, the renewable sources are intermittent in nature with very high initial installation price. Off-grid Small Autonomous Hybrid Power Systems (SAHPS) are good alternative for generating electricity locally in remote areas, where the transmission and distribution of electrical energy generated from conventional sources are otherwise complex, difficult and costly. In optimizing SAHPS, weather data over past several years are generally the main input, which include wind speed and solar radiation. The weather resources used in this optimization process have unsystematic variations based on the atmospheric and seasonal phenomenon and it also varies from year to year. While using past data in the analysis of SAHPS performance, it was assumed that the same pattern will be followed in the next year, which in reality is very unlikely to happen. In this paper, we use BBO optimization algorithm for SAHPS optimal component sizing by minimizing the cost of energy. We have also analysed the effect of using forecast weather data instead of past data on the SAHPS performance. ANNs, which are trained with back-propagation training algorithm, are used for wind speed and solar radiation forecasting. A case study was used for demonstrating the performance of BBO optimization algorithm along with forecasting effects. The simulation results clearly showed the advantages of utilizing wind speed and solar radiation forecasting in a SAHPS optimization problem.

R.A. Gupta; Rajesh Kumar; Ajay Kumar Bansal

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

80

Michigan's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

st congressional district: Energy Resources st congressional district: Energy Resources Jump to: navigation, search Equivalent URI DBpedia This article is a stub. You can help OpenEI by expanding it. This page represents a congressional district in Michigan. Registered Energy Companies in Michigan's 1st congressional district AG Solutions Inc Dow Building Solutions Dow Chemical Co Dow Chemical Company Dow Kokam Energy Generation Facilities in Michigan's 1st congressional district Hillman Power Co. Biomass Facility Viking-Lincoln Biomass Facility Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=Michigan%27s_1st_congressional_district&oldid=194174" Categories: Places Stubs Congressional Districts What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Browse properties

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Illinois' 1st congressional district: Energy Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Illinois. Illinois. Registered Networking Organizations in Illinois' 1st congressional district Chicago Clean Energy Alliance Registered Energy Companies in Illinois' 1st congressional district Acciona Wind Energy USA LLC Aerotecture International Inc American Bar Association Section on Environment American Science and Technology Corporation AST Atlas Material Testing Solutions Boeing Co CNT Energy Carbon Green BioEnergy LLC Carbon Opportunity Group Carbon Solutions Group Centre for Neighbourhood Technology Chicago Climate Exchange CCX Chromatin Inc Community and Economic Development Association of Cook County (CEDA) Digilog Global Environmental LLC E ON Climate Renewables North America formerly Airtricity USA Environmental Financial Group Environmental Law and Policy Center

83

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

(STARC), (), (NEC), () 1st. Layer 2nd. Layer 3rd. Layer  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, , , , , , (STARC), (), (NEC), () PG401 Program BPA RB SB BPA RB SB BPA RB SB BPA RB SB BPA RB SB BPA RB SB BPA RB SB 1st. Layer 2nd. Layer 3rd. Layer Total System BPA BPA 1 BPA 3 BPA2 BPA 4 BPA 5 BPA 6 RB 7 RB15 BPA 8 BPA 9 BPA 10 RB 11 BPA 12 BPA 13 RB 14 RB END RB RB BPA RB Data

Kasahara, Hironori

85

Proceeding of the 1st International Forum on Heat Transfer  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proceeding of the 1st International Forum on Heat Transfer November 24-26, 2004, Kyoto, Japan Paper No. HEAT TRANSFER PROBLEMS RELATED WITH CARBON NANOTUBES BY MOLECULAR DYNAMICS-BASED SIMULATIONS Dynamics Simulation, Thermal Conductance ABSTRACT Several heat transfer problems related to single

Maruyama, Shigeo

86

Improving Conifer Timber Steering Group Wednesday 1st  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Enterprise, Forest Industries Cluster Steve Lee - Forest Research, Conifer Breeding Programme Vaughan Hammond direction and integration of purpose to the Forest Research programmes in conifer breeding and timber1 Improving Conifer Timber Steering Group Wednesday 1st November, 2006 Attendees: Richard Ogilvy

87

Proceedings of the 1st Annual Gas Processing Symposium  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pretreatment units, a gas-fired power plant, a CO2 separation unit and storage tanks. LNG and condensateProceedings of the 1st Annual Gas Processing Symposium H. Alfadala, G.V. Rex Reklaitis and M.M. El. An example of the latter arises if part of the gas output from the separation plant is fed back

Foss, Bjarne A.

88

June 24-26, 2008 1st International Conference on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

June 24-26, 2008 ETH Zurich 1st International Conference on Machine Control & Guidance #12;June 24-26, 2008 ETH Zurich · 1855 founded · 383 Professors · 21 Nobelprizes · 13000 Students · Bachelor/Master/Doctorate School Main Building of ETH ZurichHönggerberg Campus ETH Zurich #12;June 24-26, 2008 ETH Zurich Science

89

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

90

Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- eral days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations Erin B. Munsell1 University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF

91

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

92

1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of historical distribution load data [2]. The increasinglypopular, accurate, and affordable Geographic Informahon Systems (GIS) technology provides an excellent data base platform for spatial load forecasting on collecting relevant geographic data. Thus spatial load forecasting becomes even more attractive than before

Chow, Mo-Yuen

93

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Microsoft Word - S06528_1st qtr 2010.doc  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

10 10 July 2010 LMS/RFS/S06528 This page intentionally left blank LMS/RFS/S06528 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Rocky Flats Site Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities First Quarter Calendar Year 2010 July 2010 This page intentionally left blank U.S. Department of Energy Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities-1st Quarter CY 2010 July 2010 Doc. No. S06528 Page i Contents Abbreviations.................................................................................................................................. v 1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Site Operations and Maintenance.........................................................................................

96

A new adaptive fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption forecasting with hike in prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Large increase or hike in energy prices has proven to impact electricity consumption in a way which cannot be drawn ... (FIS) to estimate and forecast long-term electricity consumption when prices experience larg...

S. M. Sajadi; S. M. Asadzadeh; V. Majazi Dalfard

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

NEPA Lessons Learned Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter FY 1995  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

. . National Environmental Policy Act N E P . A LESSONS Office of NEPA LEARNED QUARTERLY REPORT 1ST QUARTER FY 1995 Policy and Assistance U.S. Department of Energy March 1,1995 ODU- To foster continuing improvement of the Department's National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance program, the Secretarial Policy Statement on NEPA, issued June 13, 1994, requires the Office of Environment Safety and Health to solicit comments from the NEPA Document Manager, the NEPA Compliance Officer, and team members after completing each environmental impact statement and environmental assessment on lessons learned in the process, and to distribute a quarterly summary to all,NEPA Compliance Officers and NEPA Document Managers. This second quarterly report summarizes the lessons learned for documents completed between October 1 and December 31, 1994. It is based on responses to the revised

99

Program Update: 1st Quarter 2012 | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

2 2 Program Update: 1st Quarter 2012 Inside this Update: Interagency Working Group Collaborates on Codisposal of Uranium Mine and Mill Tailings Waste in New Mexico; Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Benchmarking Visit to the LMBC; LM Creates Cooperative Agreement with the Northern Arapaho Tribe; LM Participates in 2012 WM Conference; M Partners with Diné Environmental Institute on Remediation of Uranium Processing Sites; LM Stakeholder Survey 2012 Update; LM: LEEDing the Way; Yucca Mountain Transition Progress - Congressional Interest; and more. The Program Update newsletter is produced every quarter and highlights major activities and events that occurred across the DOE complex during that period of time. Office of Legacy Management (LM) Program Update, January-March 2012

100

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

102

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

104

Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A battery storage dispatch strategy that optimizes demand charge reduction in real-time was developed and the discharge of battery storage devices in a grid-connected, combined photovoltaic-battery storage system (PV+system) was simulated for a summer month, July 2012, and a winter month, November 2012, in an operational environment. The problem is formulated as a linear programming (LP; or linear optimization) routine and daily minimization of peak non-coincident demand is sought to evaluate the robustness, reliability, and consistency of the battery dispatch algorithm. The LP routine leverages solar power and load forecasts to establish a load demand target (i.e., a minimum threshold to which demand can be reduced using a photovoltaic (PV) array and battery array) that is adjusted throughout the day in response to forecast error. The LP routine perfectly minimizes demand charge but forecasts errors necessitate adjustments to the perfect dispatch schedule. The PV+system consistently reduced non-coincident demand on a metered load that has an elevated diurnal (i.e., daytime) peak. The average reduction in peak demand on weekdays (days that contain the elevated load peak) was 25.6% in July and 20.5% in November. By itself, the PV array (excluding the battery array) reduced the peak demand on average 19.6% in July and 11.4% in November. PV alone cannot perfectly mitigate load spikes due to inherent variability; the inclusion of a storage device reduced the peak demand a further 6.0% in July and 9.3% in November. Circumstances affecting algorithm robustness and peak reduction reliability are discussed.

R. Hanna; J. Kleissl; A. Nottrott; M. Ferry

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

1st International Workshop on High Performance Computing, Networking and Analytics for the Power Grid  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1st International Workshop on High Performance Computing, Networking and Analytics for the Power Transient Stability" #12;1st International Workshop on High Performance Computing, Networking and Analytics (University of Vermont). "Developing a Dynamic Model of Cascading Failure for High Performance Computing using

106

M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics: Control Volumes 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics: Control Volumes 1 The First Law of Thermodynamics: Control Volumes Here we will extend the conservation°o Control volume #12; M. Bahrami ENSC 388 (F09) 1st Law of Thermodynamics

Bahrami, Majid

107

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest regions growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

109

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

110

Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

111

Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

2010-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

112

Validation of Innovative Exploration Technologies for Newberry Volcano: Seismic data - raw taken by Apex Hipoint for 1st test 2012  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Validation of Innovative Exploration Technologies for Newberry Volcano: Seismic data - raw taken by Apex Hipoint for 1st test 2012

Jaffe, Todd

113

Proceedings of the 1st international workshop on Interactive multimedia for consumer electronics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

It is our great pleasure to welcome you to the 1st ACM International Workshop on Interactive Multimedia for Consumer Electronics -- IMCE'09. This year's workshop brings together researchers from both academia and industry in domains including ...

Ling Shao; Caifeng Shan; Jiebo Luo; Minoru Etoh

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Quarterly Coal Distribution Report 1st Quarter 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Destination Destination State ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Quarterly Coal Distribution Report 1st Quarter 2013 Alabama _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table DS-1. Domestic Coal Distribution, by Destination State, 1st Quarter 2013 Destination: Alabama (thousand short tons) Coal Origin State Transportation Mode Electric Power Sector Coke Plants Industrial Plants (excluding Coke) Commercial & Institutional Total Alabama Total 807 158 282 - 1,247 Alabama Railroad 449 71 14 - 534 Alabama River 358 - - - 358 Alabama Truck - 87 267 - 354 Colorado Total 204 - - - 204 Colorado Railroad

115

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

116

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

117

A demand side management strategy based on forecasting of residential renewable sources: A smart home system in Turkey  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The existing electricity systems have been substantially designed to allow only centralized power generation and unidirectional power flow. Therefore, the objective of improving the conventional power systems with the capabilities of decentralized generation and advanced control has conflicted with the present power system infrastructure and thus a profound change has necessitated in the current power grids. To that end, the concept of smart grid has been introduced at the last decades in order to accomplish the modernization of the power grid while incorporating various capabilities such as advanced metering, monitoring and self-healing to the systems. Among the various advanced components in smart grid structure, smart home is of vital importance due to its handling difficulties caused by the stochastic behaviors of inhabitants. However, limited studies concerning the implementation of smart homes have so far been reported in the literature. Motivated by this need, this paper investigates an experimental smart home with various renewable energy sources and storage systems in terms of several aspects such as in-home energy management, appliances control and power flow. Furthermore, the study represents one of the very first attempts to evaluate the contribution of power forecasting of renewable energy sources on the performance of smart home concepts.

A. Tascikaraoglu; A.R. Boynuegri; M. Uzunoglu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales control measures that could be taken for managing such episodes, European-scale air quality forecasting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

119

1st Advanced Marine Renewable Energy Instrumentation Experts Workshop: April 5-7, 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. marine energy industry is actively pursuing development of offshore wind and marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy systems. Experience in the wind energy sector demonstrates that new technology development requires thorough measurement and characterization of the environmental conditions prevalent at installation sites and of technology operating in the field. Presently, there are no turn-key instrumentation system solutions that meet the measurement needs of the marine energy industry. The 1st Advanced Marine Renewable Energy Instrumentation Experts Workshop brought together technical experts from government laboratories, academia, and industry representatives from marine energy, wind, offshore oil and gas, and instrumentation developers to present and discuss the instrumentation needs of the marine energy industry. The goals of the meeting were to: (1) Share the latest relevant knowledge among technical experts; (2) Review relevant state-of-the-art field measurement technologies and methods; (3) Review lessons learned from recent field deployments; (4) Identify synergies across different industries; (5) Identify gaps between existing and needed instrumentation capabilities; (6) Understand who are the leading experts; (7) Provide a forum where stakeholders from the marine energy industry could provide substantive input in the development of new marine energy field deployable instrumentation packages.

Not Available

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

New Hampshire's 1st congressional district: Energy Resources...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Cate Street Capital Inc Environmental Power Corp Eolian Renewable Energy LLC Freedom Energy Logistics JP Sercel Associates Inc Microgy Financial Services Inc Teletrol Systems Inc...

122

Cloud Computing: Theory and Practice, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Cloud Computing: Theory and Practice provides students and IT professionals with an in-depth analysis of the cloud from the ground up. Beginning with a discussion of parallel computing and architectures and distributed systems, the book turns to contemporary ...

Dan C. Marinescu

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment |  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment January 15, 2003 - 8:58am Addthis Washington, DC - Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham today announced the first eight projects chosen by the Department of Energy in the initial phase of President Bush's Clean Coal Power Initiative. The projects, valued at more than $1.3 billion, are expected to help pioneer a new generation of innovative power plant technologies that could help meet the President's Clear Skies and Climate Change initiatives. "The level of interest expressed in the first competition was tremendous," Secretary Abraham said. "That is a clear indication of the potential to develop and apply technology to improve our energy security through the use

125

DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment |  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment DOE Announces 1st Projects to Meet President's Clean Coal Commitment January 15, 2003 - 8:58am Addthis Washington, DC - Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham today announced the first eight projects chosen by the Department of Energy in the initial phase of President Bush's Clean Coal Power Initiative. The projects, valued at more than $1.3 billion, are expected to help pioneer a new generation of innovative power plant technologies that could help meet the President's Clear Skies and Climate Change initiatives. "The level of interest expressed in the first competition was tremendous," Secretary Abraham said. "That is a clear indication of the potential to develop and apply technology to improve our energy security through the use

126

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Quarterly Coal Distribution Report 1st Quarter 2013  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Origin Origin State ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Quarterly Coal Distribution Report 1st Quarter 2013 Alabama ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table OS-1. Domestic Coal Distribution, by Origin State, 1st Quarter 2013 Origin: Alabama (thousand short tons) Coal Destination State Transportation Mode Electric Power Sector Coke Plants Industrial Plants (excluding Coke) Commercial & Institutional Total Alabama Total 807 158 282 - 1,247 Alabama Railroad 449 71 14 - 534 Alabama River 358 - - - 358 Alabama Truck - 87 267 - 354 Indiana Total - 164 - - 164 Indiana Railroad - 164 - - 164

127

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts: effects of realistic initialization of the atmosphere  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles of retrospective 2-months dynamical forecasts initiated May 1st are used to predict the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989-2005. The Sub-Seasonal Predictions (SSPs) are based on a Coupled General Circulation ...

Andrea Alessandri; Andrea Borrelli; Annalisa Cherchi; Stefano Materia; Antonio Navarra; June-Yi Lee; Bin Wang

128

Lessons Learned Quarterly Report 1st Quarter FY 1996  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Success Stories: Success Stories: Articles from Department of Energy NEPA Lessons Learned Quarterly Reports 1996 Mar Hanford Tanks Public participation in NEPA process resulted in changes to the scope of the proposed project. The NEPA process resulted in enforceable mitigation commitments. 1997 Dec NPR Sale The NEPA process resulted in enforceable mitigation commitments for biological and cultural resources. 1999 Mar SPR Pipeline Integrating NEPA and the Section 404 permit processes proved efficient and resulted in mitigation commitments. 1999 Jun LANL Habitat Plan The NEPA process resulted in a site-wide habitat management plan (reducing future need for biological assessments), geographic information system (reference for future project analyses), and endangered species protection.

129

Smith Newton Vehicle Performance Evaluation - 1st Quarter 2014 (Brochure)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Fleet Test and Evaluation Team at the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory is evaluating and documenting the performance of electric and plug-in hybrid electric drive systems in medium-duty trucks across the nation. U.S. companies participating in this evaluation project received funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to cover part of the cost of purchasing these vehicles. Through this project, Smith Electric Vehicles is building and deploying 500 all-electric medium-duty trucks that will be deployed by a variety of companies in diverse climates across the country.

Not Available

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept

Brest, Université de

131

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Study of the SMO Algorithm Applied in Power System Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A new methodology on the algorithm of sequential minimal optimization (SMO) for power system load was presented. In order to solve the ... (SVM) can not deal with large scale data, this paper introduces the modif...

Jingmin Wang; Kanzhang Wu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

134

Adapted by Joshua Johnson November 12, 2013 Sand Tank (1st  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Adapted by Joshua Johnson November 12, 2013 Sand Tank (1st Grade) Lesson Plan Science Standards: Sand Tank provided by the CSM Integrated Groundwater Modeling Center Food coloring Aquifer activity and/or the Sand Tank Curriculum Guide. Lecture: 1. So you live in a city, where do you get your clean

135

Conference scope and theme The 1st International Smart Design conference aims to provide a  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Conference scope and theme The 1st International Smart Design conference aims to provide a timely. Posters The conference includes a poster session which will provide students with the opportunity for the best poster. Conference sponsored by PepsiCo Europe Poster submission / areas of interest Topics

Evans, Paul

136

Proceedings of the 1st workshop on Constraints in Software Testing, Verification and Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proceedings of the 1st workshop on Constraints in Software Testing, Verification and Analysis in Software Testing, Verifi- cation and Analysis (CSTVA'06), a workshop of the twelfth International interest in the application of constraint solving techniques to the field of testing and analysis

137

Presented by Issel Anne L. Lim 1st Year PhD Candidate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Presented by Issel Anne L. Lim 1st Year PhD Candidate Biomedical Engineering Johns Hopkins in temperature production + binding of channel-activating ligands ­ Channel protein itself temp-dep structural = transmembrane voltage A, B = preexponential factors = opening rate = closing rate TRPM8 & TRPV1: Opening vs

Yue, David

138

1st MORE TEAM MEETING Roma, 26-27 February 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1st MORE TEAM MEETING Roma, 26-27 February 2007 THE BEPICOLOMBO ORBIT DETERMINATION PROBLEM processed high resolution camera images (repeated on the same area of the surface) and S/C attitude data of the spherical harmonics of the gravity field of Mercury, static part; of degrees from 2 to at least 25 (possibly

Milani, Andrea

139

Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An accurate product reliability prediction model can not only learn and track the product's reliability and operational performance, but also offer useful information for managers to take follow-up actions to improve the product' quality and cost. This ... Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Neural network model, Reliability prediction, Repairable system

L. Yi-Hui

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

142

1st  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

short tons) short tons) Production ............................................. 266.4 241.4 259.0 249.6 245.1 243.1 263.5 256.1 258.2 248.7 264.6 261.7 1016.4 1007.8 1033.2 Appalachia ......................................... 80.6 76.1 69.3 68.1 70.4 71.3 72.0 71.9 73.3 69.9 74.3 73.8 294.1 285.5 291.2 Interior ................................................ 44.3 44.1 46.4 44.8 45.5 45.0 45.6 47.1 46.7 44.9 47.8 47.3 179.6 183.3 186.6 Western ............................................. 141.5 121.1 143.4 136.7 129.2 126.8 146.0 137.1 138.2 133.9 142.5 140.7 542.7 539.0 555.3 Primary Inventory Withdrawals .............. 0.8 0.8 4.1 0.1 5.5 -1.1 1.6 -2.6 1.0 -0.1 0.6 -2.3 5.7 3.5 -0.8 Imports .................................................. 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.4 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.9 9.2 9.3 10.7 Exports ..................................................

143

1st  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

(a) (a) OECD ................................................ 23.17 23.23 23.99 24.73 24.84 25.00 25.23 25.55 25.83 26.00 26.25 26.69 23.78 25.16 26.19 U.S. (50 States) ............................. 11.70 12.06 12.61 12.88 13.07 13.33 13.52 13.83 13.98 14.21 14.34 14.55 12.32 13.44 14.27 Canada .......................................... 4.12 3.87 4.21 4.48 4.32 4.27 4.34 4.51 4.58 4.55 4.66 4.86 4.17 4.36 4.66 Mexico ............................................ 2.93 2.89 2.88 2.91 2.82 2.79 2.76 2.74 2.68 2.68 2.72 2.70 2.90 2.78 2.69 North Sea (b) ................................. 2.94 2.89 2.74 2.89 3.07 3.04 3.01 2.91 3.03 2.99 2.94 3.02 2.86 3.01 2.99 Other OECD .................................. 1.48 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.56 1.56 1.59 1.56 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.57 1.53 1.57 1.57 Non-OECD ........................................

144

1st  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

North America ................................... 18.75 18.82 19.71 20.27 20.21 20.39 20.63 21.08 21.25 21.44 21.72 22.10 19.39 20.58 21.63 Canada ................................................ 4.12 3.87 4.21 4.48 4.32 4.27 4.34 4.51 4.58 4.55 4.66 4.86 4.17 4.36 4.66 Mexico ................................................. 2.93 2.89 2.88 2.91 2.82 2.79 2.76 2.74 2.68 2.68 2.72 2.70 2.90 2.78 2.69 United States ....................................... 11.70 12.06 12.61 12.88 13.07 13.33 13.52 13.83 13.98 14.21 14.34 14.55 12.32 13.44 14.27 Central and South America ............. 4.42 4.94 5.27 4.94 4.61 5.12 5.37 5.13 4.78 5.36 5.60 5.34 4.89 5.06 5.27 Argentina ............................................. 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.71 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.73 0.73 Brazil ....................................................

145

1st  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005) Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005) New England ............... 732 730 733 732 733 737 744 747 752 756 761 766 732 741 759 Middle Atlantic ............. 2,013 2,012 2,022 2,019 2,034 2,045 2,059 2,066 2,074 2,085 2,094 2,105 2,016 2,051 2,089 E. N. Central ................ 1,879 1,880 1,887 1,882 1,884 1,894 1,909 1,916 1,924 1,935 1,946 1,958 1,882 1,901 1,941 W. N. Central ............... 887 889 893 891 891 898 904 909 914 920 926 933 890 901 923 S. Atlantic .................... 2,475 2,479 2,494 2,500 2,507 2,524 2,541 2,552 2,571 2,590 2,608 2,629 2,487 2,531 2,599 E. S. Central ................ 636 638 640 640 642 646 649 652 656 660 664 669 639 647 662 W. S. Central ............... 1,637 1,655 1,673 1,675 1,681 1,691 1,704 1,711 1,724 1,736 1,750 1,767 1,660 1,697 1,744 Mountain ...................... 889 891 895 894 897

146

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

147

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

149

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

High-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical ...

N. C. Priv; Yuanfu Xie; Steven Koch; Robert Atlas; Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ross N. Hoffman

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

152

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

156

1st Semi-Annual Report to Congress on Appliance Energy-Efficiency Rulemakings Implementation Report: Energy Conservation Standards Activities  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

This document is the 1st Semi-Annual Report to Congress on Appliance Energy-Efficiency Rulemakings Implementation Report: Energy Conservation Standards Activities, as issued by the Assistant Secretary on August 2006.

157

1st Advanced Marine Renewable Energy Instrumentation Experts Workshop: April 5-7, 2011  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

PROGRAM PROGRAM 1st Advanced Marine Renewable Energy Instrumentation Experts Workshop April 5-7, 2011 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation,

158

Microsoft Word - S09187_1stQtr2012.doc  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Rocky Flats, Colorado, Site Rocky Flats, Colorado, Site Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities First Quarter Calendar Year 2012 July 2012 LMS/RFS/S09187 This page intentionally left blank LMS/RFS/S09187 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Rocky Flats, Colorado, Site Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities First Quarter Calendar Year 2012 July 2012 This page intentionally left blank U.S. Department of Energy Rocky Flats Site Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities-1st Quarter CY 2012 July 2012 Doc. No. S09187 Page i Contents Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. v

159

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

160

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

162

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

163

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Town Hall Meeting October 1st, 2012 | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

49 49 Varnish cache server Home Groups Community Central Green Button Applications Developer Utility Rate FRED: FRee Energy Database More Public Groups Private Groups Features Groups Blog posts Content Stream Documents Discussions Polls Q & A Events Notices My stuff Energy blogs 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2142234349 Varnish cache server Town Hall Meeting October 1st, 2012 Home > Blogs > Graham7781's blog Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2002) Super contributor 19 September, 2012 - 13:40 OpenEI Town Hall meeting What: OpenEI's town hall meeting is a half-hour open forum for discussions on energy topics with NREL's OpenEI team. Find out how your fellow researchers, students, teachers and energy professionals are using energy

166

Microsoft Word - S04474_1st qtr 08 rpt.doc  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

8 8 July 2008 Office of Legacy Management LMS/RFS/S04474 Work Performed Under DOE Contract No. for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management. DE-AM01-07LM00060 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Office of Legacy Management Office of Legacy Management Office of Legacy Management U.S. Department of Energy This page intentionally left blank LMS/RFS/S04474 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Rocky Flats Site Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities First Quarter Calendar Year 2008 July 2008 This page intentionally left blank U.S. Department of Energy Quarterly Report of Site Surveillance and Maintenance Activities-1st Quarter CY 2008 July 2008 Doc. No. S0447400 Page iii Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations

167

107th Congress 1st session S.1166, Next generation Lighting Initiative  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

II II 107TH CONGRESS 1ST SESSION S. 1166 To establish the Next Generation Lighting Initiative at the Department of Energy, and for other purposes. IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES JULY 11, 2001 Mr. BINGAMAN (for himself and Mr. DEWINE) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Nat- ural Resources A BILL To establish the Next Generation Lighting Initiative at the Department of Energy, and for other purposes. Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa- 1 tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, 2 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. 3 This Act may be cited as ''Next Generation Lighting 4 Initiative Act''. 5 SEC. 2. FINDING. 6 Congress finds that it is in the economic and energy 7 security interests of the United States to encourage the

168

Cognitive Modeling Carsten Pfeffer Dynamical Systems Approaches to  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cognitive Modeling Carsten Pfeffer Dynamical Systems Approaches to Cognition Carsten Pfeffer Universität Bremen December 1st, 2014 December 1st, 2014 1/30 #12;Cognitive Modeling Carsten Pfeffer Introduction Physical Symbol Systems December 1st, 2014 2/30 #12;Cognitive Modeling Carsten Pfeffer

Bremen, Universität

169

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

171

Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.

Duk Hee Lee; Sang Yong Park; Jong Chul Hong; Sang Jin Choi; Jong Wook Kim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiatives efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rnyi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Proceedings of the 1st IEEE International Conference on Nano/Micro Engineered and Molecular Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in a heat exchanger device is a high efficiency method. When superheated vapor passes over a sub that degrades the heat transfer efficiency. In this case, condensation mechanism changes from drop as the surface is ready for new drop-wise condensation, high heat flux due to phase change can continuously

Leu, Tzong-Shyng "Jeremy"

174

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

175

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

176

FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· FREE Name Tags for 1st year Students · FREE Selected Course Packs for 2nd year Students Process · Discounts & Free Registration to Events · Financial Support for Student Projects & Groups (up to $11,000 each year!) · Discounts on Insurance, Rental Cars, and more! · FREE Legal Advice · Expanded

Liu, Taosheng

177

1st Genomics-Bioinformatics Day on "Comparative Genomics" April 24th 2003 in the Medawar Building in the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1st Genomics-Bioinformatics Day on "Comparative Genomics" April 24th 2003 in the Medawar Building. There is a need, however, for researchers interested in genomics and bioinformatics to meet, so Jotun Hein, Richard Mott and Chris Ponting have organised the first Genomics/Bioinformatics day. It is our intention

Goldschmidt, Christina

178

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

179

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

180

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

182

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

183

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

184

Optimized Operation Strategies for PV Storages Systems Yield Limitations, Optimized Battery Configuration and the Benefit of a Perfect Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Decreasing feed in tariffs and system prices combined with an increase of electricity tariffs supports the trend to install PV storage systems in private households. In the past years several investigations and field trials have shown, that these systems can increase the self consumption of PV-power and support the self sufficiency of private households [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. These systems also have a positive influence on the low-voltage grid [7], [8]. In recent years several investigations have been done to determine the optimal system configuration. They focus on the storage and PV generator size [9] or the applied storage technology [10]. In general, the mode of operation follows a simple regime: If PV production is larger than the actual consumption, PV power is stored. If the local consumption is higher than the actual PV production, stored power is used as long as available. Only slight modifications have been done, to map the price and efficiency effects of power electronics [11], [12]. Therefore, the results are limited to a single mode of operation. In this presentation, we derive a mathematical framework, which allows the calculation of the upper performance limit for a specific household and storage system, without any assumption on the operation strategy. We apply these analysis to a large set of German households and compare the upper performance limit for two different storage system designs: A system with relative short lifetime and small capacity on the one hand and another with a long lifetime and larger capacity

Armin U. Schmiegel; Andreas Kleine

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

186

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

187

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities

188

LHC-2008 C.Vallee HERA Structure Functions 1 Physics at LHC-2008 Split, October 1st 2008  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LHC-2008 C.Vallee HERA Structure Functions 1 LHC Physics at LHC-2008 Split, October 1st 2008 Claude Vallée CPPM/DESY, on behalf of ZEUS and H1 FUNCTIONS STRUCTURE H E R A #12;LHC-2008 C.Vallee HERA/ antiquarks High x quarks/gluon x DGLAP W,Z top DY Jets Higgs Kinematics: HERA LHC , Zo e e q qx Q2 e W q q

189

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

190

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

191

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; Andr Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

194

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

196

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

The 1st August 2010 Solar Storm Effects on the Ionosphere in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Ground and Space GPS Technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

On 1st August 2010, the entire side of the sun facing earth erupted in a frenzy of solar activity. This solar storm just like a solar tsunami, the massive multiple filaments of magnetism were released from the...

Hu Wang; Qian-xin Wang; Ying-yan Cheng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

203

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

204

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

206

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

207

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

208

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

209

Volume 6 Issue 9 www.nasa.gov/centers/stennis September 2011 Stennis hosts 1st  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Vehicle & Hypersonic Systems for Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne. An area student prepares to ask a question

210

E-Print Network 3.0 - atlas 1st-level muon Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

First Result of Global Commissioning of the ATALS Endcap Muon Trigger System in ATLAS Cavern Summary: The First Result of Global Commissioning of the ATALS Endcap Muon Trigger...

211

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

212

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

213

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

215

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

216

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

217

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

219

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

220

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Database Archiving: How to Keep Lots of Data for a Very Long Time, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With the amount of data a business accumulates now doubling every 12 to 18 months, IT professionals need to know how to develop a system for archiving important database data, in a way that both satisfies regulatory requirements and is durable and secure. ... Keywords: Database Management, Information Management, Information Technology, Library & Information Science

Jack E. Olson

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Development of UCTE and reconnection of 1 st and 2nd Pan-European synchronous zones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Size and features of European electric power systems, like any other in the world, is subject to changes. The reason is of technical nature - increased work safety, as well as economic - the possibility of electricity trading i.e. increased production ... Keywords: UCTE, executive team for reconnection, reconnection, syncronous zone

Ivica Toljan; Eraldo Banovac; Sejid Tenjak

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

FISMA and the Risk Management Framework: The New Practice of Federal Cyber Security, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

If you are responsible for meeting federal information security requirements such as FISMA, this book is all you need to know to get a system authorized. Now in the first full revision of FISMA since its inception in 2002, a new wave of stronger security ...

Stephen D. Gantz; Daniel R. Philpott

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Physics 268r: Classical and Quantum Phase Transitions 1st lecture: January 28th Wednesday, 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

density function (see the note on the website) a(T; J) and b(T; J) behave a (T Tc) (6) (note to Prof Demler's course. The reading assignment is from "Fields" a book by Kardar, vol 2 chapters 1-5. We) i = 1 (3) We learned to solve this system using Mean ...eld theory and Landau theory. Let us review

226

Private Cloud Computing: Consolidation, Virtualization, and Service-Oriented Infrastructure, 1st edition  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Private cloud computing enables you to consolidate diverse enterprise systems into one that is cloud-based and can be accessed by end-users seamlessly, regardless of their location or changes in overall demand. Expert authors Steve Smoot and Nam K. Tan ...

Stephen R. Smoot; Nam K. Tan

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

228

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

230

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

232

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

233

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

1st Workshop on Dependability Issues in Wireless Ad Hoc Networks and Sensor Networks (DIWANS'04), Florence, Italy, Fault Tolerant Communication Topologies for Wireless Ad Hoc Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1st Workshop on Dependability Issues in Wireless Ad Hoc Networks and Sensor Networks (DIWANS'04), Florence, Italy, June 2004 Fault Tolerant Communication Topologies for Wireless Ad Hoc Networks Bernd, distributed algorithms, failure locality 1 Introduction Wireless sensor networks, mobile ad hoc networks

236

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

239

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

240

NREL: Systems Engineering - 2010 Wind Energy Systems Engineering...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

0 Wind Energy Systems Engineering Workshop The 1st NREL Wind Energy Systems Engineering Workshop took place on December 14, 2010, at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). The...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

242

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

243

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

244

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (SyntetosBoylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very robust behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled On the categorisation of demand patterns published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

readme.1st  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

But there are aspects to public domain distribution which we overlooked back in 1986: 1) CORRUPTION: There are many copies of Z80MU 3.10 floating around...

246

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

247

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

248

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

249

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

250

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

251

Poster/Oral Subject Area Classification Competitor First Name Competitor Last Name Award Place Amount Oral/Poster 1. History, Literature, Fine Arts, Communication, Languages, Philosophy Graduate Vahid Vahdat Zad Subject Area 1st 300  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Business, Education, Political Science, Public Policy Graduate Lauren Lewis Subject Area 1st-Tie 300 Poster-Tie 300 Poster 2. Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology, Business, Education, Political Science, Public 1st 300 Oral 2. Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology, Business, Education, Political Science, Public

252

Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology weather and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6% which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

255

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

257

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stphane Blair; Claude Girard; Andr Plante

258

Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte CarloType Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlotype simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical ...

Michael E. Splitt; Steven M. Lazarus; Sarah Collins; Denis N. Botambekov; William P. Roeder

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a ...

Stefano Materia; Andrea Borrelli; Alessio Bellucci; Andrea Alessandri; Pierluigi Di Pietro; Panagiotis Athanasiadis; Antonio Navarra; Silvio Gualdi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 17-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

264

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

265

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

266

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

267

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

269

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

270

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

271

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

273

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

274

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

275

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

276

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

277

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

278

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

280

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

282

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

288

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

289

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

290

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

293

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

294

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

295

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

296

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

298

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

300

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

303

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

305

Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing is an integral part of an ensemble prediction system. This study compares methods used to derive probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the high-resolution version of the German-focused Consortium ...

Sabrina Bentzien; Petra Friederichs

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

310

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

311

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

312

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

313

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

315

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

316

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

317

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

320

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Ual Sar?; Basar ztaysi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Microsoft Word - CX-SpacerInsulatorRepProg1st2ndQtr2013_WEB.doc  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

11, 2013 11, 2013 REPLY TO ATTN OF: KEP-4 SUBJECT: Environmental Clearance Memorandum Frank Weintraub Corinn Castro Project Manager - TEP-TPP-1 Program Manager - TPO-TPP-3 Proposed Action: 2013 Spacer and Insulator Replacement Program; First and Second Quarter Projects Budget Information: Work Order #00255064 PP&A Project No.: 1899 Categorical Exclusion Applied (from Subpart D, 10 C.F.R. Part 1021): B1.3, Routine maintenance Proposed by: Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Location: Various transmission lines located within BPA's Service Area. See Table 1 for locations of transmission lines. Description of the Proposed Action: In order to provide continued system reliability, BPA proposes to replace worn spacers and insulators along various transmission lines throughout

322

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

324

Travel Time Forecasting Lyngby 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

part of a new real-time traffic reporting system. This system is in the pipeline in the framework steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 7.4 Data cleaning, repair and aggregation

325

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

327

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

328

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

329

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

330

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

331

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

332

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

333

The Lyman-? forest in three dimensions: measurements of large scale flux correlations from BOSS 1st-year data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Using a sample of approximately 14,000 z > 2.1 quasars observed in the first year of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), we measure the three-dimensional correlation function of absorption in the Lyman-? forest. The angle-averaged correlation function of transmitted flux (F = e{sup ??}) is securely detected out to comoving separations of 60 h{sup ?1}Mpc, the first detection of flux correlations across widely separated sightlines. A quadrupole distortion of the redshift-space correlation function by peculiar velocities, the signature of the gravitational instability origin of structure in the Lyman-? forest, is also detected at high significance. We obtain a good fit to the data assuming linear theory redshift-space distortion and linear bias of the transmitted flux, relative to the matter fluctuations of a standard ?CDM cosmological model (inflationary cold dark matter with a cosmological constant). At 95% confidence, we find a linear bias parameter 0.16 < b < 0.24 and redshift-distortion parameter 0.44 < ? < 1.20, at central redshift z = 2.25, with a well constrained combination b(1+?) = 0.3360.012. The errors on ? are asymmetric, with ? = 0 excluded at over 5? confidence level. The value of ? is somewhat low compared to theoretical predictions, and our tests on synthetic data suggest that it is depressed (relative to expectations for the Lyman-? forest alone) by the presence of high column density systems and metal line absorption. These results set the stage for cosmological parameter determinations from three-dimensional structure in the Lyman-? forest, including anticipated constraints on dark energy from baryon acoustic oscillations.

Slosar, Ane [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Blgd 510, Upton NY 11375 (United States); Font-Ribera, Andreu [Institut de Cincies de l'Espai (CSIC-IEEC), Campus UAB, Fac. Cincies, torre C5 parell 2, Bellaterra, Catalonia (Spain); Pieri, Matthew M. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy, University of Colorado, 389 UCB, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States); Rich, James; Goff, Jean-Marc Le; Charlassier, Romain [CEA, Centre de Saclay, IRFU, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Aubourg, ric; Busca, Nicolas; Hamilton, Jean-Christophe [APC, Universit Paris Diderot-Paris 7, CNRS/IN2P3, CEA, Observatoire de Paris, 10, rue A. Domon and L. Duquet, Paris (France); Brinkmann, Jon [Apache Point Observatory, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Carithers, Bill; Corts, Marina; Ho, Shirley; McDonald, Patrick [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Croft, Rupert [Bruce and Astrid McWilliams Center for Cosmology, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Dawson, Kyle S. [University of Utah, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, 115 S 1400 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Eisenstein, Daniel [Harvard College Observatory, 60 Garden St., Cambridge MA 02138 (United States); Lee, Khee-Gan; Lupton, Robert [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Medolin, Bumbarija, E-mail: anze@bnl.gov [104-20 Queens Blvd 17A, Forest Hills, NY 11375 (United States); and others

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

336

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

337

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

338

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

339

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

340

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

342

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

343

Natural Calamities and Their Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Man and the Environment (habitat) comprise an integrated system consisting of numerous inter-related elements, possessing specific traits, and streamlined within certain boundaries. The interaction between Man...

Valery A. Menshikov; Anatoly N. Perminov

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

345

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily.

Zhongyue Su; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu; Ge Zhao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge of the melting process of a particle injected in a plasma jet. The plasma process is nowadays applied to produce devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

348

A COMPARISON OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL QUANTITIES WITH FORECASTS FROM CLOUD PREDICTION MODELS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, Bethesda, MD March 15-19, 2010 Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content

349

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

350

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

351

European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

352

Convective-scale Warn on Forecast: A Vision for 2020 David J. Stensrud1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 5 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods since these phenomena forecast guidance. Since increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning lead times

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

353

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

354

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in AprilMay provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 23 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in AprilMay that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3tha?1 in June and 0.4tha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.50.6tha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 23 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

356

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

357

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

358

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

359

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

360

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Takens embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid LevenbergMarquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

364

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Requirements for Requirements for m461:Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions Tomek Plewa (Florida State University) + 3 graduate students, Artur Gawryszczak (Warsaw), Konstantinos Kifonidis (Munich), Andrzej Odrzywolek (Cracow), Ju Zhang (FIT), Andrey Zhiglo (Kharkov) 1. m461: Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions * Summarize your projects and expected scientific objectives through 2014 * Modeling and simulations of transient phenomena in stellar astrophysics driven by either radiation or thermonuclear processes * Numerical solution of a coupled system of PDEs and ODEs * Tame nonlinearity! * Our goal is to ... * Explain observed properties of exploding stellar objects * Present focus is ... * Neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions * In the next 3 years we expect to ...

365

Intercomparison and Coupling of Ensemble and Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Methods for the Analysis and Forecasting of Hurricane Karl (2010)  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the performance of ensemble and variational data assimilation systems for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These methods include an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an incremental four-dimensional variational ...

Jonathan Poterjoy; Fuqing Zhang

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

367

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

370

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

371

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

372

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modelensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2006), 132, pp. 29052923 doi: 10.1256/qj.06.25 Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that many commonly used systems of measurement (`metrics') in weather forecast verification are capable of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics

Hamill, Tom

375

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis--vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

378

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

379

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Arajo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

383

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

384

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

385

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

386

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

388

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

389

Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

Not Available

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Revised {open_quotes}LEPS{close_quotes} scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The most commonly used measures for verifying forecasts or simulations of continuous variables are root-mean-squared error (rmse) and anomaly correlation. Some disadvantages of these measures are demonstrated. Existing assessment systems for categorical forecasts are discussed briefly. An alternative unbiased verification measure is developed, known as the linear error in probability space (LEPS) score. The LEPS score may be used to assess forecasts of both continuous and categorical variables and has some advantages over rmse and anomaly correlation. The properties of the version of LEPS discussed here are reviewed and compared with an earlier form of LEPS. A skill-score version of LEPS may be used to obtain an overall measure of the skill of a number of forecasts. This skill score is biased, but the bias is negligible if the number of effectively independent forecasts or simulations is large. Some examples are given in which the LEPS skill score is compared with rmse and anomaly correlation. 14 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs.

Potts, J.M. [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom)] [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom); Folland, C.K. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)] [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Jolliffe, I.T. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom)] [and others] [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom); and others

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Proceedings of the CADE17 ATP System Competition In order to stimulate ATP system development, and to expose ATP systems to interested researchers, the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proceedings of the CADE­17 ATP System Competition Abstract In order to stimulate ATP system development, and to expose ATP systems to interested researchers, the CADE­17 ATP System Competition (CASC­17) will be held on 17 June 2000. CASC­17 will evaluate the performance of sound, fully automatic, 1st order ATP

Sutcliffe, Geoff

392

Artificial neural network based models for forecasting electricity generation of grid connected solar PV power plant  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for forecasting the performance of electric energy generated output from a working 25-kWp grid connected solar PV system and a 100-kWp grid connected PV system installed at Minicoy Island of Union Territory of Lakshadweep Islands. The ANN interpolates among the solar PV generation output and relevant parameters such as solar radiation, module temperature and clearness index. In this study, three ANN models are implemented and validated with reasonable accuracy on real electric energy generation output data. The first model is univariate based on solar radiation and the output values. The second model is a multivariate model based on module temperature along with solar radiation. The third model is also a multivariate model based on module temperature, solar radiation and clearness index. A forecasting performance measure such as percentage root mean square error has been presented for each model. The second model, which gives the most accurate results, has been used in forecasting the generation output for another PV system with similar accuracy.

Imtiaz Ashraf; A. Chandra

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

394

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

395

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

396

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

397

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

399

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed

400

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODEL  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a crucial aspect of electric power system planning and operation. This paper presents a heuristic approach for optimal parameter estimation of long term load forecast models. The problem is viewed as an optimization one in which the goal is to minimize the total estimation error by properly adjusting the model coefficients. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the error associated with the estimated model parameters. Real data of Egyptian network is used to perform this study. Results are reported and compared to those obtained using the well known least error squares estimation technique. Comparison results are in favor of the proposed approach which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

M. R. AlRashidi; K. M. EL?Naggar

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

402

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

403

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

405

A Study on the Asymmetric Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) using the HWRF System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the results of a forecast from the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for Hurricane Earl (2010) are verified against observations and analyzed to understand the asymmetric rapid intensification of a ...

Hua Chen; Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan

406

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

407

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

408

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

410

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holts additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corbern-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

415

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

417

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

418

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

420

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

424

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

425

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Hctor Rodrguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

In Gbel, St., Braun, N., Spierling, U., Dechau, J. & Diener, H. (Eds.) TIDSE, 1st International Conference on Technologies for Interactive Digital Storytelling and Entertainment. Stuttgart  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Conference on Technologies for Interactive Digital Storytelling and Entertainment. Stuttgart: Fraunhofer, Peter Hoffmann, Michael Herczeg Institute for Multimedia and Interactive Systems University of Luebeck-learning systems. This has already occurred in the classical training and university teachings environments

Lübeck, Universität zu

427

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

429

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

430

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

431

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

433

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

International Conference on Hypersonic Flight in the 21st Century, 1st, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, Sept. 20-23, 1988, Proceedings  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The present conference on the development status of configurational concepts and component technologies for hypersonic-cruise and transatmospheric vehicles discusses topics relating to the U.S. National Aerospace Plane program, ESA-planned aerospace vehicles, Japanese spaceplane concepts, the integration of hypersonic aircraft into existing infrastructures, hypersonic airframe designs, hypersonic avionics and cockpit AI systems, hypersonic-regime CFD techniques, the economics of hypersonic vehicles, and possible legal implications of hypersonic flight. Also discussed are Soviet spaceplane concepts, propulsion systems involving laser power sources and hypervelocity launch technologies, and the management of support systems operations for hypersonic vehicles.

Higbea, M.E.; Vedda, J.A.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

436

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

437

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Coal log pipeline research at the University of Missouri. 1st Quarterly report for 1995, January 1, 1995--March 31, 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Work continued on the study of coal log pipeline research. Individual projects described include fast compaction of coal logs; effect of cooling on coal log quality; coal log capping; effectiveness of adding fiber to enhance coal log quality; fabrication using hydrophobic binders; cost estimation of different lubricants; automatic control of coal log pipeline system; CLP design; coal log train transport; economics of coal log pipeline; legal aspects; heating, cooling, and drying of logs; vacuum systems to enhance production; design; and effect of piston modification on capping.

Liu, H.

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfallrunoffinundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

444

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

446

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 1224-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 20062010 based on the data for 19972005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

457

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

458

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,irradianceforecastsforsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonforecastdatabase. SolarEnergy. 81:6,809?812.

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

2013-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

463

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

464

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

465

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

466

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

467

Plan for the Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(in coordination) Maj F. Anthony Eckel, PhD Chief, Air and Space Models Branch HQ Air Force Weather................................................................................................................................. 11 Products..................................................................................................................................... 13 Phase I Products

Mass, Clifford F.

468

Adaptive Forecast-Based Monitoring for Dynamic Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

process that makes plastic parts. The transition involvesa color change. In a laboratory setting, a single-screw extruder is used to per- form the color transition experiments. An on-line visual data acquisition

Nembhard, Harriet Black

469

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting system: Phase 3, Report. [Navy  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The world oil scenarios were analyzed using the NMFFS. The linear programming models of the NMFFS have great value in the analysis of petroleum resource allocation and refining. The results of the general market analysis indicated that all disruptions resulted in reduced crude oil supply, higher prices, and reduced demand in the world. In a major Persian Gulf disruption, US refining capability appeared adequate to satisfy normal US military fuel requirements, including those supplied by foreign refiners. However, this would be at the expense of civilian fuels production. Mobilization fuel requirements during a major disruption that curtailed most Persian Gulf and Venezuelan crude exports resulted in significant competition in the production of civil versus military jet fuels, particularly in Texas Gulf Coast and West Coast refineries. In all disruption scenarios studied, the Middle East emerged as a potentially important refiner of both civil and military jet fuels. With SPR drawdown and the IEA agreements in effect, the impacts of the disruptions on the production of refined products were significantly reduced, particularly in the United States, compared to the impacts without these programs. The IEA agreement caused a redistribution of the regional demand levels among IEA countries in favor of the major oil consuming countries like the United States, Canada, and some of the European countries. The results of the RYM analysis of refinery regions focused on the availability and quality of JP-5 production in key Navy supply regions. Several findings potentially important to the Navy are listed.

Hadder, G.R.; Das, S.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

1987-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System(C/NOFS)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

into a low inclination (13°) elliptical (375 x 710 km altitude) orbit. The six on board instrument packages are: · Planner Langmuir Probe · Vector Electric Field instrument · Neutral Wind Monitor · Ion Velocity

471

Solid Waste Forecast Database: User`s guide (Version 1.5)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Solid Waste Forecast Database (SWFD) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWFD system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWFD components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.5 of the SWFD, including system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations that are specific to SWFD menus and functions and does not provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWFD is established.

Bierschbach, M.C.

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

473

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

474

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

475

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

476

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

477

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

478

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

479

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

480

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting system 1st" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

482

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

483

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

484

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

485

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

486

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

487

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

488

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

489

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

490

Abstract of a Journal of the Weather in Quebec, between the 1st of April 1765, and 30th of April 1766. By Cap. Alex. Rose, of the 52d Regiment; Communicated by the Rev. P. Murdoch, D. D. F. R. S.  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

1 January 1766 research-article Abstract of a Journal of the Weather in Quebec, between the 1st of April 1765, and 30th of April 1766. By Cap. Alex. Rose, of the 52d Regiment; Communicated by the Rev...

1766-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

492

Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I and load data, estimates weather-normalized electric loads, computes design- day parameters, computes data, extrapolating past load growth patterns into the future. The most common trending method

Feinberg, Eugene A.

493

NURBS interpolation based on exponential smoothing forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To meet the requirement of exploring a new generation of CNC systems based on STEP-NC, NURBS interpolation has been studied. In contrast to existing NURBS interpolation based on the Taylors expansion, this paper...

Zhou Kai; Wang Guanjun; Jin Houzhong

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oahu Development of geothermal energy can be pro~ moted only13 Role of Renewables Geothermal energy cabL;; system tv:illQ New Techno of hence geothermal energy would be available

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A.; Shown, L.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

MonthlyReport1stQrtr  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

35 35 0 0 0 35 Number of charging events² 800 0 0 0 800 Electricity consumed (AC MWh) 5.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 Percent of time with a vehicle connected to charging unit 36% 0% 0% 0% 36% Percent of time with a vehicle drawing power from charging unit 7% 0% 0% 0% 7% Max electricity demand across all days Min electricity demand across all days Electricity demand on single calendar day with highest peak Max percentage of charging units connected across all days Min percentage of charging units connected across all days Percentage of charging units connected on single calendar day with peak electricity demand Region: All Report period: January 2011 through March 2011 Number of EV Project vehicles in region: 35 5/19/2011 5:37:48 PM INL/LTD-11-22097 1 of 2 © 2011 ECOtality

497

113TH CONGRESS 1ST SESSION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Hydropower at Corps of Engineers facilities. Sec. 2010. Clarification of work-in-kind credit authority. Sec authorizations. TITLE II--WATER RESOURCES POLICY REFORMS Sec. 2001. Purposes. Sec. 2002. Safety assurance review. 2011. Transfer of excess work-in-kind credit. Sec. 2012. Credit for in-kind contributions. Sec. 2013

US Army Corps of Engineers

498

1st Year Orientation Farid N. Najm  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

mobile, internet, sensors, HCI, energy, biology, medicine ... § Engineering can change the world § You and Program Advising ? Counselling and Referrals § Contact: ? Jennifer Fabro, First Year Counsellor ? Curtis

Prodiæ, Aleksandar

499

1st Circular Time-Resolved Vibrational  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Germany) Giulio Cerullo (Politec. Milano, Italy) Majed Chergui (EPFL, Switzerland) Dana Dlott (University of Illinois, USA) Thomas Elssser (Max Born Institute, Germany) Nikolaus Ernsting (Humbolt Univ. Germany Gerwert (Ruhr University, Germany) Peter Hamm (Univ. Zurich, Switzerland) Joachim Heberle (Free Univ

Gerwert, Klaus

500

Dewarless Logging Tool - 1st Generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report focuses on Sandia National Laboratories' effort to create high-temperature logging tools for geothermal applications without the need for heat shielding. One of the mechanisms for failure in conventional downhole tools is temperature. They can only survive a limited number of hours in high temperature environments. For the first time since the evolution of integrated circuits, components are now commercially available that are qualified to 225 C with many continuing to work up to 300 C. These components are primarily based on Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) technology. Sandia has developed and tested a simple data logger based on this technology that operates up to 300 C with a few limiting components operating to only 250 C without thermal protection. An actual well log to 240 C without shielding is discussed. The first prototype high-temperature tool measures pressure and temperature using a wire-line for power and communication. The tool is based around the HT83C51 microcontroller. A brief discussion of the background and status of the High Temperature Instrumentation program at Sandia, objectives, data logger development, and future project plans are given.

HENFLING,JOSEPH A.; NORMANN,RANDY A.

2000-08-01T23:59:59.000Z