National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasting purposes dimensions

  1. Purpose

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Purpose Determine which objects are attracted to a magnet. Performing the experiment 1. Touch the magnet to each object. Which objects or which portions of objects are attracted to the magnet? 2. See if you can attract the paper clip to one end of the magnet and then pick up another paper clip, or nail with the paper clip. 3. Rub the paper clip slowly over the magnet in its long direction about fifty times. Now try to pick up a second paper clip with the first paper clip, but without the

  2. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  3. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  4. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  5. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  6. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  8. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  9. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  10. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  11. I. Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Guidance for EPAct 2005 Section 242 Program I. Purpose In the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005; Public Law 109-58) Congress established a new program to support the expansion of hydropower energy development at existing dams and impoundments through an incentive payment procedure. Under section 242 of EPAct 2005, the Secretary of Energy is directed to provide incentive payments to the owner or operator of qualified hydroelectric facilities for electric energy generated and sold from a

  12. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  13. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  14. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  15. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  18. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  19. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  20. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  1. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  2. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  3. Big Mysteries: Extra Dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lincoln, Don

    2014-06-10

    The weakness of gravity compared to the other subatomic forces is a real mystery. While nobody knows the answer, one credible solution is that gravity has access to more spatial dimensions than the other three known forces. In this video, Fermilab's Dr. Don Lincoln describes this idea, with the help of some very urbane characters.

  4. Big Mysteries: Extra Dimensions

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Lincoln, Don

    2014-08-07

    The weakness of gravity compared to the other subatomic forces is a real mystery. While nobody knows the answer, one credible solution is that gravity has access to more spatial dimensions than the other three known forces. In this video, Fermilab's Dr. Don Lincoln describes this idea, with the help of some very urbane characters.

  5. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  6. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  7. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  8. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  9. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  10. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  11. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  13. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  14. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  15. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  16. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  17. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  18. Fit for Purpose Projects

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    that needs to be addressed by current and future Fit-for-Purpose projects includes: Reservoir pressure management - In deep saline formations, pressure increases due to...

  19. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  20. Systems Analysis Workshop Purpose

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation on SAW purpose to the DOE Systems Analysis Workshop held in Washington, D.C. July 28-29, 2004 to discuss and define role of systems analysis in DOE Hydrogen Program.

  1. Poster Presentation Purpose

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Presentation Purpose The primary purpose of the poster presentation is to provide an opportunity to communicate the results of research and to initiate discussion among science colleagues. Because poster presentations are usually done in groups, with observers milling around a large room of posters, the presentations are relaxed and more conducive to the exchange of ideas and techniques between presenters and observers. The Poster A good poster is uncluttered and clear in design. It has legible

  2. Correlated Electrons in Reduced Dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bonesteel, Nicholas E

    2015-01-31

    This report summarizes the work accomplished under the support of US DOE grant # DE-FG02-97ER45639, "Correlated Electrons in Reduced Dimensions." The underlying hypothesis of the research supported by this grant has been that studying the unique behavior of correlated electrons in reduced dimensions can lead to new ways of understanding how matter can order and how it can potentially be used. The systems under study have included i) fractional quantum Hall matter, which is realized when electrons are confined to two-dimensions and placed in a strong magnetic field at low temperature, ii) one-dimensional chains of spins and exotic quasiparticle excitations of topologically ordered matter, and iii) electrons confined in effectively ``zero-dimensional" semiconductor quantum dots.

  3. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  4. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  7. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  8. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  9. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  10. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  11. Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

  12. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  13. MENTORING PROGRAM Purpose

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Last Revised: February 5, 2013 MENTORING PROGRAM Purpose To provide a formal structure to develop employees through mentoring with other professionals at the Ames Laboratory. The mentoring program includes a focus on critical positions that have no succession planning in place. Objectives * To promote individual development through the transfer of skills, expert knowledge and insight. * To provide an additional resource for feedback and guidance. * To develop an internal pipeline for succession

  14. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  15. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  16. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  17. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  18. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  19. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  20. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  5. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  6. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  7. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  8. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  9. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  10. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  12. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  13. Purpose

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to achieve the Laboratory mission and strategic objectives. OHAP Outcomes As part of the Strategic Planning and Goal Setting process, laboratory management annually reviews...

  14. Purpose

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Magic Arcs - The bottom arc always looks bigger than the top one, yet they are actually the same size. You just can't trust your senses. The secret is that the longer edge of the ...

  15. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  16. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  17. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  18. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  19. Positioner with long travel in two dimensions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Trumper, David L.; Williams, Mark E.

    1997-12-23

    A precision positioning system is provided which provides long travel in two of the linear dimensions, while using non-contact bearings for both a first subassembly which provides long travel in one of the linear dimension and a second subassembly which provides long travel in the second linear dimension. The first or upper subassembly is preferably a magnetic subassembly which, in addition to providing long travel, also compensates or positions in three rotary dimensions and in the third linear dimension. The second subassembly is preferably either an air bearing or magnetic subassembly and is normally used only to provide long travel. Angled surfaces may be provided for magnetic bearings and capacitive or other gap sensing probes may be mounted to the stage and ground flush with the bearing actuators to provide more precise gap measurements.

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  1. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  2. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  5. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  8. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  9. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  10. Shape invariant potentials in higher dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sandhya, R.; Sree Ranjani, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2015-08-15

    In this paper we investigate the shape invariance property of a potential in one dimension. We show that a simple ansatz allows us to reconstruct all the known shape invariant potentials in one dimension. This ansatz can be easily extended to arrive at a large class of new shape invariant potentials in arbitrary dimensions. A reformulation of the shape invariance property and possible generalizations are proposed. These may lead to an important extension of the shape invariance property to Hamiltonians that are related to standard potential problems via space time transformations, which are found useful in path integral formulation of quantum mechanics.

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. Supersymmetric {sigma}-models in 2-dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zumino, B. |

    1997-02-01

    The author gives a brief introduction to supersymmetric {sigma}-models in two space-time dimensions. The topics he covers are: the bosonic {sigma}-model; supersymmetry in two dimensions; complex manifolds; the Kaehler and hyper-Kaehler case; and chiral supersymmetries. The lesson to be learned from the lecture is that the number of supersymmetries is intimately related to the geometric structure of the target space manifold: more geometric structure corresponds to more supersymmetries.

  13. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  14. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  15. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  16. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  17. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  18. Chern-Simons and WZW anomaly cancelations across dimensions ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chern-Simons and WZW anomaly cancelations across dimensions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chern-Simons and WZW anomaly cancelations across dimensions The WZW ...

  19. Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions Authors: Hill, ...

  20. Electrochemistry on the nanoscale: the force dimension (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Electrochemistry on the nanoscale: the force dimension Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Electrochemistry on the nanoscale: the force dimension Authors: Black, Jennifer M ...

  1. Electrochemistry at the Nanoscale: The Force Dimension (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Electrochemistry at the Nanoscale: The Force Dimension Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Electrochemistry at the Nanoscale: The Force Dimension Authors: Black, Jennifer M ...

  2. Widget:RemovePDFImageDimensions | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    from PDF images. This is a temporary measure until PdfHandler extension properly gets landscapeportrait dimensions from PDF files. Usage: Widget:RemovePDFImageDimensions...

  3. Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions ...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Chern-Simons and WZW Anomaly Cancelations Across Dimensions You are ...

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  5. General purpose programmable accelerator board

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robertson, Perry J.; Witzke, Edward L.

    2001-01-01

    A general purpose accelerator board and acceleration method comprising use of: one or more programmable logic devices; a plurality of memory blocks; bus interface for communicating data between the memory blocks and devices external to the board; and dynamic programming capabilities for providing logic to the programmable logic device to be executed on data in the memory blocks.

  6. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  7. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  8. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  9. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  10. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  11. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  12. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  13. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  14. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  15. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  16. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  17. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  19. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  20. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  1. FLRW and LTB Cosmology in Extra Dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gueham, A.; Mebarki, N.

    2010-10-31

    Two models of 4+1 dimensions are discussed and some new exact solutions are found. Moreover, a dynamical study of a 4+1 homogeneous FLRW model is made. It is shown that the LTB inhomogeneous case leads to a scenario of the universe similar to that of Turok's cyclic model but with different mechanism.

  2. Broken Scale Invariance and Anomalous Dimensions

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Wilson, K. G.

    1970-05-01

    Mack and Kastrup have proposed that broken scale invariance is a symmetry of strong interactions. There is evidence from the Thirring model and perturbation theory that the dimensions of fields defined by scale transformations will be changed by the interaction from their canonical values. We review these ideas and their consequences for strong interactions.

  3. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  4. Systems and methods for displaying data in split dimension levels

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Stolte, Chris; Hanrahan, Patrick

    2015-07-28

    Systems and methods for displaying data in split dimension levels are disclosed. In some implementations, a method includes: at a computer, obtaining a dimensional hierarchy associated with a dataset, wherein the dimensional hierarchy includes at least one dimension and a sub-dimension of the at least one dimension; and populating information representing data included in the dataset into a visual table having a first axis and a second axis, wherein the first axis corresponds to the at least one dimension and the second axis corresponds to the sub-dimension of the at least one dimension.

  5. DOE Workshop Overview and Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4/13/2016 eere.energy.gov DOE Workshop Overview and Purpose Workshop on Gas Clean-Up for Fuel Cell Applications 3/6/2014, Argonne National Laboratory Dr. Dimitrios Papageorgopoulos Fuel Cells Program Manager Fuel Cell Technologies Office U.S. Department of Energy 2 | Fuel Cell Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Fuel Cells Overview and Benefits The Role of Fuel Cells Key Benefits Very High Efficiency Reduced CO 2 Emissions * 35-50%+ reductions for CHP systems (>80% with biogas) * 55-90%

  6. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  7. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  8. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  9. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  11. Spherical gravitational collapse in N dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goswami, Rituparno; Joshi, Pankaj S.

    2007-10-15

    We investigate here spherically symmetric gravitational collapse in a space-time with an arbitrary number of dimensions and with a general type I matter field, which is a broad class that includes most of the physically reasonable matter forms. We show that given the initial data for matter in terms of the initial density and pressure profiles at an initial surface t=t{sub i} from which the collapse evolves, there exist the rest of the initial data functions and classes of solutions of Einstein equations which we construct here, such that the space-time evolution goes to a final state which is either a black hole or a naked singularity, depending on the nature of initial data and evolutions chosen, and subject to validity of the weak energy condition. The results are discussed and analyzed in the light of the cosmic censorship hypothesis in black hole physics. The formalism here combines the earlier results on gravitational collapse in four dimensions in a unified treatment. Also the earlier work is generalized to higher-dimensional space-times to allow a study of the effect of the number of dimensions on the possible final outcome of the collapse in terms of either a black hole or naked singularity. No restriction is adopted on the number of dimensions, and other limiting assumptions such as self-similarity of space-time are avoided, in order to keep the treatment general. Our methodology allows us to consider to an extent the genericity and stability aspects related to the occurrence of naked singularities in gravitational collapse.

  12. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  13. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  14. Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Purpose, Policies,...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Group Purpose, Policies, and Operations Draft document (last updated in 2010) discusses the purpose, policies, and operations of the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group. ...

  15. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  16. Instantons and Massless Fermions in Two Dimensions

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Callan, C. G. Jr.; Dashen, R.; Gross, D. J.

    1977-05-01

    The role of instantons in the breakdown of chiral U(N) symmetry is studied in a two dimensional model. Chiral U(1) is always destroyed by the axial vector anomaly. For N = 2 chiral SU(N) is also spontaneously broken yielding massive fermions and three (decoupled) Goldstone bosons. For N greater than or equal to 3 the fermions remain massless. Realistic four dimensional theories are believed to behave in a similar way but the critical N above which the fermions cease to be massive is not known in four dimensions.

  17. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  18. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  19. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  20. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  1. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  2. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  3. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  4. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy has just published the latest edition of its biannual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, which models the...

  5. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  8. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  9. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  10. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  11. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  12. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  13. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  14. Nonuniform black strings in various dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sorkin, Evgeny

    2006-11-15

    The nonuniform black-strings branch, which emerges from the critical Gregory-Laflamme string, is numerically constructed in dimensions 6{<=}D{<=}11 and extended into the strongly nonlinear regime. All the solutions are more massive and less entropic than the marginal string. We find the asymptotic values of the mass, the entropy and other physical variables in the limit of large horizon deformations. By explicit metric comparison we verify that the local geometry around the waist of our most nonuniform solutions is conelike with less than 10% deviation. We find evidence that in this regime the characteristic length scale has a power-law dependence on a parameter along the branch of the solutions, and estimate the critical exponent.

  15. On partially massless theory in 3 dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alexandrov, Sergei; Deffayet, Cédric

    2015-03-24

    We analyze the first-order formulation of the ghost-free bigravity model in three-dimensions known as zwei-dreibein gravity. For a special choice of parameters, it was argued to have an additional gauge symmetry and give rise to a partially massless theory. We provide a thorough canonical analysis and identify that whether the theory becomes partially massless depends on the form of the stability condition of the secondary constraint responsible for the absence of the ghost. Generically, it is found to be an equation for a Lagrange multiplier implying that partially massless zwei-dreibein gravity does not exist. However, for special backgrounds this condition is identically satisfied leading to the presence of additional symmetries, which however disappear at quadratic order in perturbations.

  16. Rotating black lens solution in five dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen Yu; Teo, Edward

    2008-09-15

    It has recently been shown that a stationary, asymptotically flat vacuum black hole in five space-time dimensions with two commuting axial symmetries must have an event horizon with either a spherical, ring or lens-space topology. In this paper, we study the third possibility, a so-called black lens with L(n,1) horizon topology. Using the inverse scattering method, we construct a black-lens solution with the simplest possible rod structure, and possessing a single asymptotic angular momentum. Its properties are then analyzed; in particular, it is shown that there must either be a conical singularity or a naked curvature singularity present in the space-time.

  17. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  18. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  19. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  20. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  1. Linear dimensions and volumes of human lungs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickman, David P.

    2012-03-30

    TOTAL LUNG Capacity is defined as “the inspiratory capacity plus the functional residual capacity; the volume of air contained in the lungs at the end of a maximal inspiration; also equals vital capacity plus residual volume” (from MediLexicon.com). Within the Results and Discussion section of their April 2012 Health Physics paper, Kramer et al. briefly noted that the lungs of their experimental subjects were “not fully inflated.” By definition and failure to obtain maximal inspiration, Kramer et. al. did not measure Total Lung Capacity (TLC). The TLC equation generated from this work will tend to underestimate TLC and does notmore » improve or update total lung capacity data provided by ICRP and others. Likewise, the five linear measurements performed by Kramer et. al. are only representative of the conditions of the measurement (i.e., not at-rest volume, but not fully inflated either). While there was significant work performed and the data are interesting, the data does not represent a maximal situation, a minimal situation, or an at-rest situation. Moreover, while interesting, the linear data generated by this study is limited by the conditions of the experiment and may not be fully comparative with other lung or inspiratory parameters, measures, or physical dimensions.« less

  2. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  3. Anomalous Dimensions and Non-Gaussianity (Journal Article) |...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Anomalous Dimensions and Non-Gaussianity Authors: Green, Daniel ; Lewandowski, ... Sponsoring Org: US DOE Office of Science (DOE SC);High Energy Physics (HEP);National ...

  4. Dimensions of invariant measures for continuous random dynamical systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bielaczyc, Tomasz; Horbacz, Katarzyna

    2015-03-10

    We consider continuous random dynamical systems with jumps. We estimate the dimension of the invariant measures and apply the results to a model of stochastic gene expression.

  5. SN1987A Constraints on Large Compact Dimensions (Technical Report...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    scale. The observed weakness of gravitational interactions is then explained by the existence of extra compact dimensions of space, which are accessible to gravity but not to...

  6. SN1987A Constraints on Large Compact Dimensions (Technical Report...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    dimensions of space, which are accessible to gravity but not to Standard Model particles. ... GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS; GRAVITONS; STANDARD MODEL; SUPERNOVAE; LIMITING VALUES Word ...

  7. Single Particle Database of Natural Ice Crystals: Dimensions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Particle Database of Natural Ice Crystals: Dimensions and Aspect Ratios For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http:www.arm.govsciencehighlights...

  8. Search for Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Large extra dimensions (LED) have been proposed to account for the apparent weakness of gravitation. These theories also indicate that the postulated massive Kaluza-Klein (KK) ...

  9. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  10. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  11. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge.

  12. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  15. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  16. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  17. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  18. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information ...

  19. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  20. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  1. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  3. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  4. Human dimensions in cyber operations research and development priorities.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Forsythe, James Chris; Silva, Austin Ray; Stevens-Adams, Susan Marie; Bradshaw, Jeffrey

    2012-11-01

    Within cyber security, the human element represents one of the greatest untapped opportunities for increasing the effectiveness of network defenses. However, there has been little research to understand the human dimension in cyber operations. To better understand the needs and priorities for research and development to address these issues, a workshop was conducted August 28-29, 2012 in Washington DC. A synthesis was developed that captured the key issues and associated research questions. Research and development needs were identified that fell into three parallel paths: (1) human factors analysis and scientific studies to establish foundational knowledge concerning factors underlying the performance of cyber defenders; (2) development of models that capture key processes that mediate interactions between defenders, users, adversaries and the public; and (3) development of a multi-purpose test environment for conducting controlled experiments that enables systems and human performance measurement. These research and development investments would transform cyber operations from an art to a science, enabling systems solutions to be engineered to address a range of situations. Organizations would be able to move beyond the current state where key decisions (e.g. personnel assignment) are made on a largely ad hoc basis to a state in which there exist institutionalized processes for assuring the right people are doing the right jobs in the right way. These developments lay the groundwork for emergence of a professional class of cyber defenders with defined roles and career progressions, with higher levels of personnel commitment and retention. Finally, the operational impact would be evident in improved performance, accompanied by a shift to a more proactive response in which defenders have the capacity to exert greater control over the cyber battlespace.

  5. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  6. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  8. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  9. Limits on Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    theory of Large Extra Dimensions (LED) proposed by Arkani-Hamed, Dimopoulos, and Dvali. ... faint neutron stars (NS). To set limits on LED we use the model of Hannestad and Raffelt ...

  10. Limits on Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Considering 2 to 7 extra dimensions of the same size in the context of the HR model, we use Monte Carlo techniques to calculate the expected differential flux of gamma-rays arising ...

  11. NLO BFKL and anomalous dimensions of light-ray operators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balitsky, Ian

    2013-05-01

    This presentation covers: Regge limit in the coordinate space; BFKL representation of 4-point correlation function in N = 4 SYM; light-ray operators; DGLAP representation of 4-point correlation function; and anomalous dimensions from DGAP vs BFKL representations.

  12. Affordability Contest Adds New Dimension to Solar Decathlon 2011 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Affordability Contest Adds New Dimension to Solar Decathlon 2011 Affordability Contest Adds New Dimension to Solar Decathlon 2011 September 27, 2011 - 10:20am Addthis Matt Hansen reviews each team’s design drawings and construction specifications to estimate the total construction cost of its house. (Credit: Alexis Power/U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon) Matt Hansen reviews each team's design drawings and construction specifications to estimate the total

  13. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  14. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process

  15. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  16. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  17. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  18. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  19. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    .g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

  1. Dimensions and aspect ratios of natural ice crystals

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Um, J.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Hong, Y. P.; Lee, S. -S.; Jung, C. H.; Lawson, R. P.; Mo, Q.

    2014-12-10

    During the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) in the Tropics, the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) in the Arctic, and the 2010 Small PARTicles In CirrUS (SPARTICUS) campaign in mid-latitudes, high-resolution images of ice crystals were recorded by a Cloud Particle Imager at temperatures (T) between -87 and 0 °C. The projected maximum dimension (D'), length (L'), and width (W') of pristine columns, plates, and component bullets of bullet rosettes were measured using newly developed software, the Ice Crystal Ruler. The number of bullets in each bullet rosette was also measured. Column crystals were furthermore » distinguished as either horizontally oriented columns or columns with other orientations to eliminate any orientation effect on the measured dimensions. Dimensions and aspect ratios (AR, dimension of major axis divided by dimension of minor axis) of crystals were determined as functions of temperature, geophysical location, and type of cirrus. Dimensions of crystals generally increased as temperature increased. Columns and bullets had larger dimensions (i.e., W') of the minor axis (i.e., a axis) for a given dimension (i.e., D' or L') of the major axis (i.e., c axis), and thus smaller AR, as T increased, whereas this trend did not occur for plate crystals. The average number of branches in bullet rosettes was 5.50±1.35 during three campaigns and 6.32±1.34 (5.46±1.34; 4.95±1.01) during TWP-ICE (SPARTICUS; ISDAC). The AR of bullets increased with the number of branches in bullet rosettes. Most dimensions of crystals and ARs of columnar crystals measured during SPARTICUS were larger than those measured during TWP-ICE and ISDAC at −67 < T < −35 °C and at −40 < T < −15 °C, respectively. The relative occurrence of varying pristine habits depended strongly on cirrus type (i.e., anvil or non-anvil clouds), with plates especially occurring more frequently in anvils. The L–W relationships of columns

  2. Dimensions and aspect ratios of natural ice crystals

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Um, J.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Hong, Y. P.; Lee, S. -S.; Jung, C. H.; Lawson, R. P.; Mo, Q.

    2015-04-15

    During the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) in the tropics, the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) in the Arctic, and the 2010 Small PARTicles In CirrUS (SPARTICUS) campaign at mid-latitudes, high-resolution images of ice crystals were recorded by a Cloud Particle Imager at temperatures (T) between -87 and 0 °C. The projected maximum dimension (D'), length (L'), and width (W') of pristine columns, plates, and component bullets of bullet rosettes were measured using newly developed software, the Ice Crystal Ruler. The number of bullets in each bullet rosette was also measured. Column crystals were furthermore » distinguished as either horizontally oriented columns or columns with other orientations to eliminate any orientation effect on the measured dimensions. The dimensions and aspect ratios (AR, the dimension of the major axis divided by the dimension of the minor axis) of crystals were determined as functions of temperature, geophysical location, and type of cirrus. Dimensions of crystals generally increased with temperature. Columns and bullets had larger dimensions (i.e., W') of the minor axis (i.e., a axis) for a given dimension (i.e., D' orL') of the major axis (i.e., c axis), and thus smaller AR, as T increased, whereas this trend did not occur for plate crystals. The average number of branches in bullet rosettes was 5.50 ± 1.35 during three campaigns and 6.32 ± 1.34 (5.46 ± 1.34; 4.95 ± 1.01) during TWP-ICE (SPARTICUS; ISDAC). The AR of bullets increased with the number of branches in bullet rosettes. Most dimensions of crystals and ARs of columnar crystals measured during SPARTICUS were larger than those measured during TWP-ICE and ISDAC at −67 < T < -35 °C and at −40 < T < −15 °C, respectively. The relative occurrence of varying pristine habits depended strongly on cirrus type (i.e., anvil or non-anvil clouds), with plates especially occurring more frequently in anvils. The L

  3. A Key Role for Dimension in the Neutrino Mechanism of Core-Collapse...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    to demonstrate an important role for spatial dimension and instabilities in the ... ASTRONOMY; ASTROPHYSICS; BLACK HOLES; DIMENSIONS; EXPLOSIONS; NEUTRINOS; NEUTRON STARS; ...

  4. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  5. On the selection of dimension reduction techniques for scientific applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fan, Y J; Kamath, C

    2012-02-17

    Many dimension reduction methods have been proposed to discover the intrinsic, lower dimensional structure of a high-dimensional dataset. However, determining critical features in datasets that consist of a large number of features is still a challenge. In this paper, through a series of carefully designed experiments on real-world datasets, we investigate the performance of different dimension reduction techniques, ranging from feature subset selection to methods that transform the features into a lower dimensional space. We also discuss methods that calculate the intrinsic dimensionality of a dataset in order to understand the reduced dimension. Using several evaluation strategies, we show how these different methods can provide useful insights into the data. These comparisons enable us to provide guidance to a user on the selection of a technique for their dataset.

  6. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  7. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  8. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  9. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  10. Minimum length, extra dimensions, modified gravity and black hole remnants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maziashvili, Michael

    2013-03-01

    We construct a Hilbert space representation of minimum-length deformed uncertainty relation in presence of extra dimensions. Following this construction, we study corrections to the gravitational potential (back reaction on gravity) with the use of correspondingly modified propagator in presence of two (spatial) extra dimensions. Interestingly enough, for r?0 the gravitational force approaches zero and the horizon for modified Schwarzschild-Tangherlini space-time disappears when the mass approaches quantum-gravity energy scale. This result points out to the existence of zero-temperature black hole remnants in ADD brane-world model.

  11. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  12. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  13. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  14. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  15. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  16. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  17. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  19. Quantum dissipative effect of one dimension coupled anharmonic oscillator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sulaiman, A.; Zen, Freddy P.

    2015-04-16

    Quantum dissipative effect of one dimension coupled anharmonic oscillator is investigated. The systems are two coupled harmonic oscillator with the different masses. The dissipative effect is studied based on the quantum state diffusion formalism. The result show that the anharmonic effect increase the amplitude but the lifetime of the oscillation depend on the damping coefficient and do not depend on the temperature.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  1. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  2. Electronic multi-purpose material level sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McEwan, T.E.

    1997-03-11

    The present electronic multi-purpose material level sensor is based on time domain reflectometry (TDR) of very short electrical pulses. Pulses are propagated along a transmission line that is partially immersed in a liquid, powder, or other substance such as grain in a silo. The time difference of the reflections at the start of the transmission line and the air/liquid interface are used to determine levels to better than 0.01 inch. The sensor is essentially independent of circuit element and temperature variations, and can be mass produced at an extremely low price. The transmission line may be a Goubau line, microstrip, coaxial cable, twin lead, CPS or CPW, and may typically be a strip placed along the inside wall of a tank. The reflected pulses also contain information about strata within the liquid such as sludge-build-up at the bottom of an oil tank. 9 figs.

  3. Electronic multi-purpose material level sensor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McEwan, Thomas E.

    1997-01-01

    The present electronic multi-purpose material level sensor is based on time domain reflectometry (TDR) of very short electrical pulses. Pulses are propagated along a transmission line that is partially immersed in a liquid, powder, or other substance such as grain in a silo. The time difference of the reflections at the start of the transmission line and the air/liquid interface are used to determine levels to better than 0.01 inch. The sensor is essentially independent of circuit element and temperature variations, and can be mass produced at an extremely low price. The transmission line may be a Goubau line, microstrip, coaxial cable, twin lead, CPS or CPW, and may typically be a strip placed along the inside wall of a tank. The reflected pulses also contain information about strata within the liquid such as sludge-build-up at the bottom of an oil tank.

  4. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  5. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  6. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  8. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  11. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  12. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  13. Particle creation by naked singularities in higher dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miyamoto, Umpei; Nemoto, Hiroya; Shimano, Masahiro

    2011-04-15

    Recently, the possibility was pointed out by one of the present authors and his collaborators that an effective naked singularity referred to as ''a visible border of spacetime'' is generated by high-energy particle collision in the context of large extra dimensions or TeV-scale gravity. In this paper, we investigate the particle creation by a naked singularity in general dimensions, while adopting a model in which a marginally naked singularity forms in the collapse of a homothetic lightlike pressureless fluid. We find that the spectrum deviates from that of Hawking radiation due to scattering near the singularity but can be recast in quasithermal form. The temperature is always higher than that of Hawking radiation of a same-mass black hole, and can be arbitrarily high depending on a parameter in the model. This implies that, in principle, the naked singularity may be distinguished from a black hole in collider experiments.

  14. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  15. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. ...

  16. Quantum Dimension of Photosynthesis Revealed by Angular Resolved Coherent

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Imaging | MIT-Harvard Center for Excitonics Dimension of Photosynthesis Revealed by Angular Resolved Coherent Imaging September 29, 2009 at 3pm/36-428 Ian Mercer Department of Physics, University College Dublin mercer abstract: Understanding the role of coherent electronic motion is expected to resolve general questions of importance in macromolecular energy transfer, in nature and in devices. Significant progress has been made using coherent optical four wave-mixing, however the

  17. Team Massachusetts Brings a Fourth Dimension to the Solar Decathlon

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Team Massachusetts is bringing a unique perspective to the Solar Decathlon this fall. You might say it is a fourth dimension because of the team’s newly constructed 4D Home. But it could also be argued that it is because the Massachusetts College of Art and Design and University of Massachusetts Lowell are collaborating for the team’s first entry into the biannual competition, and they’re both public institutions.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  19. General Purpose Energy Storage (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    General Purpose Energy Storage Citation Details In-Document Search Title: General Purpose Energy Storage You are accessing a document from the Department of Energy's (DOE) ...

  20. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  1. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  2. Inert scalar dark matter in an extra dimension inspired model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lineros, R.A.; Santos, F.A. Pereira dos E-mail: fabio.alex@fis.puc-rio.br

    2014-10-01

    In this paper we analyze a dark matter model inspired by theories with extra dimensions. The dark matter candidate corresponds to the first Kaluza–Klein mode of an real scalar added to the Standard Model. The tower of new particles enriches the calculation of the relic abundance. For large mass splitting, the model converges to the predictions of the inert singlet dark matter model. For nearly degenerate mass spectrum, coannihilations increase the cross-sections used for direct and indirect dark matter searches. Moreover, the Kaluza–Klein zero mode can mix with the SM higgs and further constraints can be applied.

  3. Levinson theorem for the Dirac equation in D+1 dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gu Xiaoyan; Ma Zhongqi; Dong Shihai

    2003-06-01

    In terms of the generalized Sturm-Liouville theorem, the Levinson theorem for the Dirac equation with a spherically symmetric potential in D+1 dimensions is uniformly established as a relation between the total number of bound states and the sum of the phase shifts of the scattering states at E={+-}M with a given angular momentum. The critical case, where the Dirac equation has a half bound state, is analyzed in detail. A half bound state is a zero-momentum solution if its wave function is finite but does not decay fast enough at infinity to be square integrable.

  4. Tracking single particle rotation: Probing dynamics in four dimensions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Anthony, Stephen Michael; Yu, Yan

    2015-04-29

    Direct visualization and tracking of small particles at high spatial and temporal resolution provides a powerful approach to probing complex dynamics and interactions in chemical and biological processes. Analysis of the rotational dynamics of particles adds a new dimension of information that is otherwise impossible to obtain with conventional 3-D particle tracking. In this review, we survey recent advances in single-particle rotational tracking, with highlights on the rotational tracking of optically anisotropic Janus particles. Furthermore, strengths and weaknesses of the various particle tracking methods, and their applications are discussed.

  5. Search for universal extra dimensions in ppbar collisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich; Abbott, Braden Keim; Acharya, Bannanje Sripath; Adams, Mark Raymond; Adams, Todd; Alexeev, Guennadi D.; Alkhazov, Georgiy D.; Alton, Andrew K.; Alverson, George O.; Aoki, Masato; Askew, Andrew Warren; /Florida State U. /Stockholm U.

    2011-12-01

    We present a search for Kaluza-Klein (KK) particles predicted by models with universal extra dimensions (UED) using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7.3 fb{sup -1}, collected by the D0 detector at a p{bar p} center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The decay chain of KK particles can lead to a final state with two muons of the same charge. This signature is used to set a lower limit on the compactification scale of R{sup -1} > 260 GeV in a minimal UED model.

  6. Method of forming cavitated objects of controlled dimension

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anderson, Paul R.; Miller, Wayne J.

    1982-01-01

    A method of controllably varying the dimensions of cavitated objects such as hollow spherical shells wherein a precursor shell is heated to a temperature above the shell softening temperature in an ambient atmosphere wherein the ratio of gases which are permeable through the shell wall at that temperature to gases which are impermeable through the shell wall is substantially greater than the corresponding ratio for gases contained within the precursor shell. As the shell expands, the partial pressures of permeable gases internally and externally of the shell approach and achieve equilibrium, so that the final shell size depends solely upon the difference in impermeable gas partial pressures and shell surface tension.

  7. Method of forming cavitated objects of controlled dimension

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anderson, P.R.; Miller, W.J.

    1981-02-11

    A method is disclosed of controllably varying the dimensions of cavitated objects such as hollow spherical shells wherein a precursor shell is heated to a temperature above the shell softening temperature in an ambient atmosphere wherein the ratio of gases which are permeable through the shell wall at that temperature to gases which are impermeable through the shell wall is substantially greater than the corresponding ratio for gases contained within the precursor shell. As the shell expands, the partial pressures of permeable gases internally and externally of the shell approach and achieve equilibrium, so that the final shell size depends solely upon the difference in impermeable gas partial pressures and shell surface tension.

  8. Near field optical probe for critical dimension measurements

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Stallard, B.R.; Kaushik, S.

    1999-05-18

    A resonant planar optical waveguide probe for measuring critical dimensions on an object in the range of 100 nm and below is disclosed. The optical waveguide includes a central resonant cavity flanked by Bragg reflector layers with input and output means at either end. Light is supplied by a narrow bandwidth laser source. Light resonating in the cavity creates an evanescent electrical field. The object with the structures to be measured is translated past the resonant cavity. The refractive index contrasts presented by the structures perturb the field and cause variations in the intensity of the light in the cavity. The topography of the structures is determined from these variations. 8 figs.

  9. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  10. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  11. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  12. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  13. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  14. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled “Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.” By researching the physical processes...

  16. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  17. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  18. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in ...

  19. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  20. Friedmann's equations in all dimensions and Chebyshev's theorem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Shouxin; Gibbons, Gary W.; Li, Yijun; Yang, Yisong E-mail: gwg1@damtp.cam.ac.uk E-mail: yisongyang@nyu.edu

    2014-12-01

    This short but systematic work demonstrates a link between Chebyshev's theorem and the explicit integration in cosmological time t and conformal time η of the Friedmann equations in all dimensions and with an arbitrary cosmological constant Λ. More precisely, it is shown that for spatially flat universes an explicit integration in t may always be carried out, and that, in the non-flat situation and when Λ is zero and the ratio w of the pressure and energy density in the barotropic equation of state of the perfect-fluid universe is rational, an explicit integration may be carried out if and only if the dimension n of space and w obey some specific relations among an infinite family. The situation for explicit integration in η is complementary to that in t. More precisely, it is shown in the flat-universe case with Λ ≠ 0 that an explicit integration in η can be carried out if and only if w and n obey similar relations among a well-defined family which we specify, and that, when Λ = 0, an explicit integration can always be carried out whether the space is flat, closed, or open. We also show that our method may be used to study more realistic cosmological situations when the equation of state is nonlinear.

  1. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  3. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  4. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  5. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  7. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  9. Program Evaluation: Purpose and Principles of Peer Reviews |...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Peer reviews have a clear purpose and core principles. Purpose Peer review is essential to ... Core Principles for EERE In-Progress Peer Review Managers and staff in EERE will provide ...

  10. Title 40 CFR 1500 Purpose, Policy, and Mandate | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Purpose, Policy, and Mandate Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal Document- Federal RegulationFederal Regulation: Title 40 CFR 1500 Purpose,...

  11. Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Purpose, Policies, and Operations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Draft document (last updated in 2010) discusses the purpose, policies, and operations of the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group.

  12. Extra dimensions and neutrinoless double beta decay experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gozdz, Marek; Kaminski, Wieslaw A.; Faessler, Amand [Theoretical Physics Department, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, Lublin (Poland); Institute fuer Theoretische Physik, Universitaet Tuebingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 14, D-72076 Tuebingen (Germany)

    2005-05-01

    The neutrinoless double beta decay is one of the few phenomena, belonging to the nonstandard physics, which is extensively being sought for in experiments. In the present paper the link between the half-life of the neutrinoless double beta decay and theories with large extra dimensions is explored. The use of the sensitivities of currently planned 0{nu}2{beta} experiments: DAMA, CANDLES, COBRA, DCBA, CAMEO, GENIUS, GEM, MAJORANA, MOON, CUORE, EXO, and XMASS, gives the possibility for a nondirect 'experimental' verification of various extra dimensional scenarios. We discuss also the results of the Heidelberg-Moscow Collaboration. The calculations are based on the Majorana neutrino mass generation mechanism in the Arkani-Hamed-Dimopoulos-Dvali model.

  13. Sparse matrix transform for fast projection to reduced dimension

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Theiler, James P; Cao, Guangzhi; Bouman, Charles A

    2010-01-01

    We investigate three algorithms that use the sparse matrix transform (SMT) to produce variance-maximizing linear projections to a lower-dimensional space. The SMT expresses the projection as a sequence of Givens rotations and this enables computationally efficient implementation of the projection operator. The baseline algorithm uses the SMT to directly approximate the optimal solution that is given by principal components analysis (PCA). A variant of the baseline begins with a standard SMT solution, but prunes the sequence of Givens rotations to only include those that contribute to the variance maximization. Finally, a simpler and faster third algorithm is introduced; this also estimates the projection operator with a sequence of Givens rotations, but in this case, the rotations are chosen to optimize a criterion that more directly expresses the dimension reduction criterion.

  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  15. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  16. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  17. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  18. Program Evaluation: Purpose and Costs | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Purpose and Costs Program Evaluation: Purpose and Costs Steps one through three will help you establish the purpose of and determine which resources are available for your evaluation (learn more about the other steps in general program evaluations): Step 1: Decide the Evaluation Objectives Step 2: Determine Resources Available Step 3: Determine the Timeline for Completing the Evaluation Step 1: Decide the Evaluation Objectives Evaluation objectives are determined by careful consideration of the

  19. Program Evaluation: Define Review Purpose and Scope | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Define Review Purpose and Scope Program Evaluation: Define Review Purpose and Scope The first step in preparation for a particular peer review is to determine the specific purpose and scope of the review within the context of other review and management activities. Improving program management and demonstrating public accountability, providing an honest independent technical review of the projects and program, and communicating the value of the programs to the larger public are all potentially

  20. Regulation Identifier Number Title/Subject/Purpose Rule Type

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Regulation Identifier Number TitleSubjectPurpose Rule Type Status 1990-AA40 ... Amend DOE's statutory prescribed regulation, which set forth the procedural rules ...

  1. The Purpose and Value of Successful Technology Demonstrations...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Purpose and Value of Successful Technology Demonstrations - The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Demonstrations by Steve Bossart, NETL Senior Management and Technical...

  2. Remote Control of Laboratory Equipment for Educational Purposes...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Remote Control of Laboratory Equipment for Educational Purposes This invention consists of a method to remote control many types of laboratory equipment that is typically found in ...

  3. Dirac equation in low dimensions: The factorization method

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Snchez-Monroy, J.A.; Quimbay, C.J.

    2014-11-15

    We present a general approach to solve the (1+1) and (2+1)-dimensional Dirac equations in the presence of static scalar, pseudoscalar and gauge potentials, for the case in which the potentials have the same functional form and thus the factorization method can be applied. We show that the presence of electric potentials in the Dirac equation leads to two KleinGordon equations including an energy-dependent potential. We then generalize the factorization method for the case of energy-dependent Hamiltonians. Additionally, the shape invariance is generalized for a specific class of energy-dependent Hamiltonians. We also present a condition for the absence of the Klein paradox (stability of the Dirac sea), showing how Dirac particles in low dimensions can be confined for a wide family of potentials. - Highlights: The low-dimensional Dirac equation in the presence of static potentials is solved. The factorization method is generalized for energy-dependent Hamiltonians. The shape invariance is generalized for energy-dependent Hamiltonians. The stability of the Dirac sea is related to the existence of supersymmetric partner Hamiltonians.

  4. Dimensions of Usability: Cougaar, Aglets and Adaptive Agent Architecture (AAA)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haack, Jereme N.; Cowell, Andrew J.; Gorton, Ian

    2004-06-20

    Research and development organizations are constantly evaluating new technologies in order to implement the next generation of advanced applications. At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, agent technologies are perceived as an approach that can provide a competitive advantage in the construction of highly sophisticated software systems in a range of application areas. An important factor in selecting a successful agent architecture is the level of support it provides the developer in respect to developer support, examples of use, integration into current workflow and community support. Without such assistance, the developer must invest more effort into learning instead of applying the technology. Like many other applied research organizations, our staff are not dedicated to a single project and must acquire new skills as required, underlining the importance of being able to quickly become proficient. A project was instigated to evaluate three candidate agent toolkits across the dimensions of support they provide. This paper reports on the outcomes of this evaluation and provides insights into the agent technologies evaluated.

  5. Extra Dimensions: 3D and Time in PDF Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graf, N.A.; /SLAC

    2012-04-11

    Experimental science is replete with multi-dimensional information which is often poorly represented by the two dimensions of presentation slides and print media. Past efforts to disseminate such information to a wider audience have failed for a number of reasons, including a lack of standards which are easy to implement and have broad support. Adobe's Portable Document Format (PDF) has in recent years become the de facto standard for secure, dependable electronic information exchange. It has done so by creating an open format, providing support for multiple platforms and being reliable and extensible. By providing support for the ECMA standard Universal 3D (U3D) file format in its free Adobe Reader software, Adobe has made it easy to distribute and interact with 3D content. By providing support for scripting and animation, temporal data can also be easily distributed to a wide, non-technical audience. We discuss how the field of radiation imaging could benefit from incorporating full 3D information about not only the detectors, but also the results of the experimental analyses, in its electronic publications. In this article, we present examples drawn from high-energy physics, mathematics and molecular biology which take advantage of this functionality. We demonstrate how 3D detector elements can be documented, using either CAD drawings or other sources such as GEANT visualizations as input.

  6. Extra Dimensions: 3D and Time in PDF Documentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graf, Norman A.; /SLAC

    2011-11-10

    High energy physics is replete with multi-dimensional information which is often poorly represented by the two dimensions of presentation slides and print media. Past efforts to disseminate such information to a wider audience have failed for a number of reasons, including a lack of standards which are easy to implement and have broad support. Adobe's Portable Document Format (PDF) has in recent years become the de facto standard for secure, dependable electronic information exchange. It has done so by creating an open format, providing support for multiple platforms and being reliable and extensible. By providing support for the ECMA standard Universal 3D (U3D) file format in its free Adobe Reader software, Adobe has made it easy to distribute and interact with 3D content. By providing support for scripting and animation, temporal data can also be easily distributed to a wide audience. In this talk, we present examples of HEP applications which take advantage of this functionality. We demonstrate how 3D detector elements can be documented, using either CAD drawings or other sources such as GEANT visualizations as input. Using this technique, higher dimensional data, such as LEGO plots or time-dependent information can be included in PDF files. In principle, a complete event display, with full interactivity, can be incorporated into a PDF file. This would allow the end user not only to customize the view and representation of the data, but to access the underlying data itself.

  7. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Kong, Kyoungchul; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  8. Social impact assessment - new dimensions in project planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, M.G.; Hartog, J.J.; Sykes, R.M.

    1996-11-01

    The Objective of the presentation is to provide understanding of how to improve attention to the social dimensions of EP projects. Social Impacts are the consequences to human populations, communities or individuals resulting from a project or activity. Such impacts may change the way in which people live, relate to one another, organize and cope as members of society. There is an increasing demand and expectation that Exploration and Production activities will both understand their impacts and define benefits for the local communities. Social Impact Assessment can be considered a branch of Environmental Impact Assessment. It has become a tool in its own fight due to the focus that was paid to the natural and physical issues within the EIA process. However there are still strong alignments and the wise project planner will integrate social and environmental issues within their project planning process. This can be done through a combination of studies but can result in a single report. The benefits of SIA will be demonstrated to include: (1) obtaining approvals (2) forward planning and design (3) increased project success-benefits to local community (4) economic benefits (5) decision making by management The types of impacts including demographic, socioeconomic, health, social infrastructure, resources, psychological and community, cultural and social equity will be reviewed. Methods and techniques to identify and assess impacts will be addressed. One of the main challenges in SIA is to reach the right audience. Methods to scope studies and implement consultation will be addressed.

  9. Gamma ray lines from a universal extra dimension

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertone, G.; Jackson, C. B.; Shaughnessy, G.; Tait, T. M.P.; Vallinotto, A.

    2012-03-01

    Indirect Dark Matter searches are based on the observation of secondary particles produced by the annihilation or decay of Dark Matter. Among them, gamma-rays are perhaps the most promising messengers, as they do not suffer deflection or absorption on Galactic scales, so their observation would directly reveal the position and the energy spectrum of the emitting source. Here, we study the detailed gamma-ray energy spectrum of Kaluza--Klein Dark Matter in a theory with 5 Universal Extra Dimensions. We focus in particular on the two body annihilation of Dark Matter particles into a photon and another particle, which produces monochromatic photons, resulting in a line in the energy spectrum of gamma rays. Previous calculations in the context of the five dimensional UED model have computed the line signal from annihilations into \\gamma \\gamma, but we extend these results to include \\gamma Z and \\gamma H final states. We find that these spectral lines are subdominant compared to the predicted \\gamma \\gamma signal, but they would be important as follow-up signals in the event of the observation of the \\gamma \\gamma line, in order to distinguish the 5d UED model from other theoretical scenarios.

  10. DIMENSION STABILIZED FIXED PHOTOGRAPHIC TYPE EMULSION AND A METHOD FOR PRODUCING SAME

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gilbert, F.C.

    1962-03-13

    A process is given for stabilizing the dimensions of fixed gelatin-base photographic type emulsions containing silver halide, and particularly to such emulsions containing large amounts of silver chloride for use as nuclear track emulsions, so that the dimensions of the final product are the same as or in a predetermined fixed ratio to the dimensions of the emulsions prior to exposure. The process comprises contacting an exposed, fixed emulsion with a solution of wood rosin dissolved in ethyl alcohol for times corresponding to the dimensions desired, and thereafter permitting the alcohol to evaporate. (AEC)

  11. Rajesh Maingi adds a new strategic dimension to fusion and plasma...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rajesh Maingi adds a new strategic dimension to fusion and plasma physics research By John ... gas that fuels fusion reactions in donut-shaped magnetic facilities called tokamaks. ...

  12. Extra Dimensions of Space: Are They Going to be Found Soon?

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Rubakov, Valery [Institute for Nuclear Research, Moscow, Russia

    2010-09-01

    Our space may well have more than 3 dimensions. Indeed, theories that pretend to be most fundamental choose to live in higher dimensions: a natural area for superstring/Mtheory is 9- or 10-dimensional space. Extra dimensions have been hidden so far, but they would open up above a certain energy threshold. A fascinating possibility is that this happens within reach of particle colliders. This lecture will address the motivation for such a viewpoint and implications of accessible extra dimensions for our understanding of nature.

  13. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  14. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Impact of oxygenates on petroleum refining, review and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Unzelman, G.H.

    1995-09-01

    During the coming decade, oxygenates will continue to impact light oil processing and will steadily change the composition of the US gasoline pool. There are several major driving forces that will sustain the gradual influx of oxygen to US gasoline toward the regulatory limits: (1) the positive environmental characteristics of oxygenated compounds, (2) the high-octane quality of ethers that promote elimination of less desirable hydrocarbons and (3) the competitive need for ultra-clean gasoline to compete with alternatives. From 1995 forward, conventional gasoline will gradually shift to RFG (reformulated gasoline) containing a minimum of 2 wt% oxygen and less aromatics. As a result some processing changes, already in motion in the refining industry, will continue. For example, less severe naphtha reforming and cracking innovations to yield more feed for etherification and alkylation. While alternative fuel and vehicle technology will continue to develop, oxygenates in US gasoline will contribute the major alternative dimension to transportation fuel in the foreseeable future. With RFG, internal-combustion engine emissions will be progressively less toxic and lower in photochemical reactivity. The oxygenate mix will favor methyl ethers in spite of the recent methanol price spike. Ethyl ethers will be used on a more limited basis for specific situations where lower volatility and feedstock economics are an advantage. Downstream blending of ethanol will supplement ethers blended at the refinery in situations where economics are more favorable than refinery ethers. Long-range survival of ethanol, as a direct blending agent or feedstock for refinery ethers, depends on one or more of several factors: future crude oil costs, longevity of subsidies and/or mandates, and new production technology based on cellulose yielding ethanol economically competitive with hydrocarbons.

  16. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  17. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  18. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  19. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  20. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  1. MO-E-17A-10: Evaluation of Body and Head Dimensions of Pediatric Patients as a Function of Age

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seibert, JA; Boone, JM

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Phantom development in medical physics plays an important role in radiation dose assessment and image quality evaluation, and this is especially true in the pediatric patient population. The purpose of this investigation was to establish the relationship between patient age and patient size, focusing on the abdomen-pelvis and head effective diameters, for patients ranging in age from newborn to 18 years. Methods: A dose reporting tool for computed tomography systems was installed at our institution to achieve compliance with state law commencing on July 1, 2012. The software records a number of patient-specific data, and also reports CT dose metrics (CTDIvol and DLP) into the patients interpretive report. The database generated by the software was mined to determine patient effective diameter as a function of age for pediatric patients aged 0–18 years. CT protocols including abdomen-pelvis and routine head were evaluated, and specific to this study the patients age, gender and equivalent diameter were recorded. Results: Six age ranges were evaluated: A(0–3), B(4–6), C(7–9), D(10–12),E(13–15),F(16–18). For the torso in these groups based upon 694 patients, median effective diameters were 147, 167, 184, 214, 231, 246 mm, respectively. For the head (N=1833), median diameters were 143, 157, 162, 168, 174, and 174, respectively. Conclusion: A solid understanding of the approximate dimensions of pediatric patients as a function of age is useful in the development of age-based imaging protocols and dose assessments. CT dose-reporting tools generate a great deal of data with respect to body dimensions automatically. In this study, median equivalent diameters for the abdomen-pelvis and head of pediatric patients were evaluated. These data may prove useful in the development of both mathematical and physical phantoms for dosimetry and image quality assessment.

  2. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  3. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  4. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  5. Self-Direction of Public Purpose Charges (LECPPP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Oregon's 1999 electric-utility restructuring legislation (SB 1149) required Pacific Power and Portland General Electric (PGE) to collect a 3% public-purpose charge from their customers to support...

  6. Attachment 1: DOE Phased Retirement Implementation Plan Purpose:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1: DOE Phased Retirement Implementation Plan Purpose: Phased retirement is designed to assist agencies with knowledge management and continuity of operations in the short term. Although the main purpose is to enhance the mentoring and training of the employees who will be filling the positions or taking on duties of more experienced retiring employees, phased retirement may also be used to provide employees with the opportunity to share experiences across Departmental elements. Phased retirement

  7. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  8. Search for Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron Stars

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    with the Fermi-LAT (Thesis/Dissertation) | SciTech Connect Thesis/Dissertation: Search for Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron Stars with the Fermi-LAT Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Search for Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron Stars with the Fermi-LAT Large extra dimensions (LED) have been proposed to account for the apparent weakness of gravitation. These theories also indicate that the postulated massive Kaluza-Klein (KK) gravitons may

  9. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  10. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  11. A Key Role for Dimension in the Neutrino Mechanism of Core-Collapse...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Neutrino Mechanism of Core-Collapse Supernova Explosions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: A Key Role for Dimension in the Neutrino Mechanism of Core-Collapse Supernova ...

  12. Apparatus and method for tracking a molecule or particle in three dimensions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Werner, James H.; Goodwin, Peter M.; Lessard, Guillaume

    2009-03-03

    An apparatus and method were used to track the movement of fluorescent particles in three dimensions. Control software was used with the apparatus to implement a tracking algorithm for tracking the motion of the individual particles in glycerol/water mixtures. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the tracking algorithms in combination with the apparatus may be used for tracking the motion of single fluorescent or fluorescently labeled biomolecules in three dimensions.

  13. Weldability of general purpose heat source new-process iridium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kanne, W.R.

    1987-01-01

    Weldability tests on General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) iridium capsules showed that a new iridium fabrication process reduced susceptibility to underbead cracking. Seventeen capsules were welded (a total of 255 welds) in four categories and the number of cracks in each weld was measured.

  14. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  16. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  17. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  18. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  19. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  20. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  1. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  2. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  3. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  4. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  5. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  6. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  7. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  8. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  9. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  10. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  11. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  12. CRUSH TESTING OF 9977 GENERAL PURPOSE FISSILE PACKAGINGS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, A.

    2010-07-28

    The 9977 General Purpose Fissile Package (GPFP) was designed in response to the adoption of the crush test requirement in the US regulations for packages for radioactive materials (10 CFR 71). This presentation on crush testing of the 9977 GPFP Reviews origins of Crush Test Requirements and implementation of crush test requirements in 10 CFR 71. SANDIA testing performed to support the rule making is reviewed. The differences in practice, on the part of the US Department of Energy from those required by the NRC for commercial purposes, are explained. The design features incorporated into the 9977 GPFP to enable it to withstand the crush test and the crush tests performed on the 9977 are described. Lessons learned from crush testing of GPFP packagings are given.

  13. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  14. Regulation Identifier Number Title/Subject/Purpose Rule Type

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    7/21/2016. Highlighted areas denote changes from the last update. Regulation Identifier Number Title/Subject/Purpose Rule Type Status 1990-AA40 Adminstrative Requirements for Other Transactions: revise requirements for technology investment agreements to broaden to support all types of other transactions. NOPR Drafting Notice of Proposed Rule-making for Federal Register 1901-AB37 Enforcement of Classified Information Security Requirements: Amend DOE's statutory prescribed regulation, which set

  15. Chapter 1 - Introduction and Statement of Purpose and Need

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1-1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND STATEMENT OF PURPOSE AND NEED The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is proposing to construct and operate an Actinide Chemistry and Repository Science Laboratory (ACRSL) to support chemical research activities related to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico. The laboratory would be located on New Mexico State University property adjacent to the existing Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring and Research Center (CEMRC) in Carlsbad, New Mexico.

  16. Special purpose modes in photonic band gap fibers

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Spencer, James; Noble, Robert; Campbell, Sara

    2013-04-02

    Photonic band gap fibers are described having one or more defects suitable for the acceleration of electrons or other charged particles. Methods and devices are described for exciting special purpose modes in the defects including laser coupling schemes as well as various fiber designs and components for facilitating excitation of desired modes. Results are also presented showing effects on modes due to modes in other defects within the fiber and due to the proximity of defects to the fiber edge. Techniques and devices are described for controlling electrons within the defect(s). Various applications for electrons or other energetic charged particles produced by such photonic band gap fibers are also described.

  17. RADIOLOGICAL DATA FOR ALARA PLANNING PURPOSES Rev. 1 Contact

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    RADIOLOGICAL DATA FOR ALARA PLANNING PURPOSES Rev. 1 Contact 1 ft 3 ft 10 ft 25 ft 50 ft 125 ft 100 mR/hr line 5 mR/hr line (R/hr) (R/hr) (R/hr) (R/hr) (R/hr) (R/hr) (R/hr) (feet) (feet) Outside of Cask (max) *Unshielded Liner (max) Top of *Unshielded Liner after the cask lid is removed *Unshielded Liner Inside of Cask/Lid Outside of Cask Lifting rig or any other support equipment Does the cask have fixed contamination that may "leach out" during transport (Yes/No)? If yes, please list

  18. Development of a General Purpose Power System Control Board

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nam, S.H.; Jeong, S.H.; Kim, S.H.; Kim, S.C.; Park, S.S.; Suh, J.H.; Bellomo, P.; Cassel, R.; Larsen, R.; Nguyen, M.N.; /SLAC

    2007-07-23

    In an effort to control modern solid state power modules, a general purpose, multi function power system control board (PSCB) has been under development as a collaboration project between Pohang Accelerator Laboratory (PAL), Korea, and Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), USA. The PSCB is an embedded, interlock supervisory, diagnostic, timing, and set-point control board. It is designed to use in various power systems such as sequenced kicker pulsers, solid state RF modulators, simple DC magnet power supplies, etc. The PSCB has the Ethernet communication with the TCP/IP Modbus protocol.

  19. Quantum quenches in two spatial dimensions using chain array matrix product states

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    A. J. A. James; Konik, R.

    2015-10-15

    We describe a method for simulating the real time evolution of extended quantum systems in two dimensions (2D). The method combines the benefits of integrability and matrix product states in one dimension to avoid several issues that hinder other applications of tensor based methods in 2D. In particular, it can be extended to infinitely long cylinders. As an example application we present results for quantum quenches in the 2D quantum [(2+1)-dimensional] Ising model. As a result, in quenches that cross a phase boundary we find that the return probability shows nonanalyticities in time.

  20. The Next Dimension of Mapping the Universe: The Dark Energy Spectroscopic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Instrument | Department of Energy Dimension of Mapping the Universe: The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument The Next Dimension of Mapping the Universe: The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument June 11, 2015 - 10:24am Addthis Zoomed-in image from the Dark Energy Camera of the barred spiral galaxy NGC 1365, in the Fornax cluster of galaxies, which lies about 60 million light years from Earth -- in other words, far, far away. | Photo courtesy of the Dark Energy Survey Collaboration. Zoomed-in

  1. Dual-purpose desalting, RO versus MSF an economic comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brandt, D.C.; Battey, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Capital and annual operating costs are estimated for producing water using three combinations of seawater reverse osmosis and gas turbines. The costs and operating parameters were developed for Middle East conditions assuming a Red Sea water source. The plants were designed to produce 37,850 m/sup 3//d (10 mgd) of potable water and to export 50,000 kW of power. The reverse osmosis plant utilizes energy recovery and was designed with full pretreatment for a surface water supply. Electricity is provided by either gas turbines, steam turbines, or combined cycle plants. Power and water costs developed for these systems were compared to costs for conventional, dual-purpose MSF/steam turbine plants for the same water and power production. These evaluations considered two levels of fuel costs. The results of this study show the significant effect of fuel costs on process selection and on water and power costs. Capital and operating costs were 20 to 28 percent less and 23 to 33 percent less, respectively, for the RO/gas turbine and RO/combined cycle plants as compared to conventional, dual-purpose MSF steam turbine plants. In addition to economics, the merits of the systems are discussed relative to delivery, ease and flexibility of operation, turndown capability, and so forth.

  2. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  3. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  4. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  5. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  6. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  7. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  8. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  9. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  10. International training course on nuclear materials accountability for safeguards purposes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1980-12-01

    The two volumes of this report incorporate all lectures and presentations at the International Training Course on Nuclear Materials Accountability and Control for Safeguards Purposes, held May 27-June 6, 1980, at the Bishop's Lodge near Santa Fe, New Mexico. The course, authorized by the US Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act and sponsored by the US Department of Energy in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, was developed to provide practical training in the design, implementation, and operation of a National system of nuclear materials accountability and control that satisfies both National and IAEA International safeguards objectives. Volume I, covering the first week of the course, presents the background, requirements, and general features of material accounting and control in modern safeguard systems. Volume II, covering the second week of the course, provides more detailed information on measurement methods and instruments, practical experience at power reactor and research reactor facilities, and examples of operating state systems of accountability and control.

  11. Multi-purpose canister system evaluation: A systems engineering approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    This report summarizes Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to investigate various container systems for handling, transporting, storing, and disposing of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). The primary goal of DOE`s investigations was to select a container technology that could handle the vast majority of commercial SNF at a reasonable cost, while ensuring the safety of the public and protecting the environment. Several alternative cask and canister concepts were evaluated for SNF assembly packaging to determine the most suitable concept. Of these alternatives, the multi-purpose canister (MPC) system was determined to be the most suitable. Based on the results of these evaluations, the decision was made to proceed with design and certification of the MPC system. A decision to fabricate and deploy MPCs will be made after further studies and preparation of an environmental impact statement.

  12. Electrochemical detection of single molecules using abiotic nanopores having electrically tunable dimensions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sansinena, Jose-Maria; Redondo, Antonio; Olazabal, Virginia; Hoffbauer, Mark A.; Akhadov, Elshan A.

    2009-12-29

    A barrier structure for use in an electrochemical stochastic membrane sensor for single molecule detection. The sensor is based upon inorganic nanopores having electrically tunable dimensions. The inorganic nanopores are formed from inorganic materials and an electrically conductive polymer. Methods of making the barrier structure and sensing single molecules using the barrier structure are also described.

  13. Optimizing moderator dimensions for neutron scattering at the spallation neutron source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, J. K.; Robertson, J. L.; Herwig, Kenneth W.; Gallmeier, Franz X.; Riemer, Bernard W. [Instrument and Source Division, Spallation Neutron Source, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States)] [Instrument and Source Division, Spallation Neutron Source, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    In this work, we investigate the effect of neutron moderator dimensions on the performance of neutron scattering instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). In a recent study of the planned second target station at the SNS facility, we have found that the dimensions of a moderator play a significant role in determining its surface brightness. A smaller moderator may be significantly brighter over a smaller viewing area. One of the immediate implications of this finding is that for modern neutron scattering instrument designs, moderator dimensions and brightness have to be incorporated as an integrated optimization parameter. Here, we establish a strategy of matching neutron scattering instruments with moderators using analytical and Monte Carlo techniques. In order to simplify our treatment, we group the instruments into two broad categories: those with natural collimation and those that use neutron guide systems. For instruments using natural collimation, the optimal moderator selection depends on the size of the moderator, the sample, and the moderator brightness. The desired beam divergence only plays a role in determining the distance between sample and moderator. For instruments using neutron optical systems, the smallest moderator available that is larger than the entrance dimension of the closest optical element will perform the best (assuming, as is the case here that smaller moderators are brighter)

  14. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  15. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  16. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  17. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  18. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  19. General-purpose event generators for LHC physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, Andy; Butterworth, Jonathan; Gieseke, Stefan; Grellscheid, David; Hoche, Stefan; Hoeth, Hendrik; Krauss, Frank; Lonnblad, Leif; Nurse, Emily; Richardson, Peter; Schumann, Steffen; Seymour, Michael H.; Sjostrand, Torbjorn; Skands, Peter; Webber, Bryan; /Cambridge U.

    2011-03-03

    We review the physics basis, main features and use of general-purpose Monte Carlo event generators for the simulation of proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Topics included are: the generation of hard-scattering matrix elements for processes of interest, at both leading and next-to-leading QCD perturbative order; their matching to approximate treatments of higher orders based on the showering approximation; the parton and dipole shower formulations; parton distribution functions for event generators; non-perturbative aspects such as soft QCD collisions, the underlying event and diffractive processes; the string and cluster models for hadron formation; the treatment of hadron and tau decays; the inclusion of QED radiation and beyond-Standard-Model processes. We describe the principal features of the Ariadne, Herwig++, Pythia 8 and Sherpa generators, together with the Rivet and Professor validation and tuning tools, and discuss the physics philosophy behind the proper use of these generators and tools. This review is aimed at phenomenologists wishing to understand better how parton-level predictions are translated into hadron-level events as well as experimentalists wanting a deeper insight into the tools available for signal and background simulation at the LHC.

  20. Multi-purpose hydrogen isotopes separation plant design

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boniface, H.A.; Gnanapragasam, N.V.; Ryland, D.K.; Suppiah, S.; Castillo, I.

    2015-03-15

    There is a potential interest at AECL's Chalk River Laboratories to remove tritium from moderately tritiated light water and to reclaim tritiated, downgraded heavy water. With only a few limitations, a single CECE (Combined Electrolysis and Catalytic Exchange) process configuration can be designed to remove tritium from heavy water or light water and upgrade heavy water. Such a design would have some restrictions on the nature of the feed-stock and tritium product, but could produce essentially tritium-free light or heavy water that is chemically pure. The extracted tritium is produced as a small quantity of tritiated heavy water. The overall plant capacity is fixed by the total amount of electrolysis and volume of catalyst. In this proposal, with 60 kA of electrolysis a throughput of 15 kg*h{sup -1} light water for detritiation, about 4 kg*h{sup -1} of heavy water for detritiation and about 27 kg*h{sup -1} of 98% heavy water for upgrading can be processed. Such a plant requires about 1,000 liters of AECL isotope exchange catalyst. The general design features and details of this multi-purpose CECE process are described in this paper, based on some practical choices of design criteria. In addition, we outline the small differences that must be accommodated and some compromises that must be made to make the plant capable of such flexible operation. (authors)

  1. RAPID/Best Practices/Purpose and Need | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and will represent the project. For the NEPA lead agency, the purpose may be different. Agency's Purpose and Need Statement Federal agencies conducting environmental...

  2. Purpose and Need: CEQ Exchange of Letters with Secretary of Transporta...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Purpose and Need: CEQ Exchange of Letters with Secretary of Transportation Purpose and Need: CEQ Exchange of Letters with Secretary of Transportation A discussion between the ...

  3. Predicting Pattern Tooling and Casting Dimensions for Investment Casting - Phase II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sabau, Adrian S

    2005-09-01

    The investment casting process allows the production of complex-shape parts and close dimensional tolerances. One of the most important phases in the investment casting process is the design of the pattern die. Pattern dies are used to create wax patterns by injecting wax into dies. The wax patterns are used to create a ceramic shell by the application of a series of ceramic coatings, and the alloy is cast into the dewaxed shell mold (Fig. 1.1). However, the complexity of shape and the close dimensional tolerances required in the final casting make it difficult to determine tooling dimensions. The final linear dimension of the casting depends on the cumulative effects of the linear expansions or contractions in each step of the investment casting process (Fig. 1.2). In most cases, the mold geometry or cores restrict the shrinkage of the pattern or the cast part, and the final casting dimensions may be affected by time-dependent processes such as viscoelastic deformation of the wax, and viscoplastic creep and plastic deformations of the shell and alloy. The pattern die is often reworked several times to produce castings whose dimensions are within acceptable tolerances. To date, investment casting technology has been based on hands-on training and experience. Technical literature is limited to experimental, phenomenological studies aimed at obtaining empirical correlations for quick and easy application in industry. The goal of this project was to predict casting dimensions for investment castings in order to meet blueprint nominal during the first casting run. Several interactions have to be considered in a coupled manner to determine the shrinkage factors: these are the die-wax, wax-shell, and shell-alloy interactions (as illustrated in Fig. 1.3). In this work, the deformations of the die-wax and shell-alloy systems were considered in a coupled manner, while the coupled deformation of the wax-shell system was not considered. Future work is needed in order to

  4. Reconstruction of ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in N dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strohaber, J.; Kolomenskii, A. A.; Schuessler, H. A.

    2010-07-15

    We present an analytical inversion technique, which can be used to recover ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in an N-dimensional detection scheme. The solution is given as a power series in intensity. For this reason, we call this technique a multiphoton expansion (MPE). The MPE formalism was verified with an exactly solvable inversion problem in two dimensions, and probabilities in the postsaturation region, where the intensity-selective scanning approach breaks down, were recovered. In three dimensions, ionization probabilities of Xe were successfully recovered with MPE from simulated (using the Ammosov-Delone-Krainov tunneling theory) ion yields. Finally, we tested our approach with intensity-resolved benzene-ion yields, which show a resonant multiphoton ionization process. By applying MPE to this data (which were artificially averaged), the resonant structure was recovered, which suggests that the resonance in benzene may have been observed in spatially averaged data taken elsewhere.

  5. Spherically symmetric self-dual Yang-Mills instantons on curved backgrounds in all even dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radu, Eugen; Tchrakian, D. H.; Yang Yisong

    2008-02-15

    We present several different classes of self-dual Yang-Mills instantons in all even d-dimensional backgrounds with Euclidean signature. In d=4p+2 the only solutions we found are on constant curvature dS (de Sitter) and AdS (anti-de Sitter) backgrounds and are evaluated in closed form. In d=4p an interesting class of instantons are given on black hole backgrounds. One class of solutions are (Euclidean) time-independent and spherically symmetric in d-1 dimensions, and the other class are spherically symmetric in all d dimensions. Some of the solutions in the former class are evaluated numerically, all the rest being given in closed form. Analytic proofs of existence covering all numerically evaluated solutions are given. All instantons studied have finite action and vanishing energy momentum tensor and do not disturb the geometry.

  6. On exact statistics and classification of ergodic systems of integer dimension

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guralnik, Zachary Guralnik, Gerald; Pehlevan, Cengiz

    2014-06-01

    We describe classes of ergodic dynamical systems for which some statistical properties are known exactly. These systems have integer dimension, are not globally dissipative, and are defined by a probability density and a two-form. This definition generalizes the construction of Hamiltonian systems by a Hamiltonian and a symplectic form. Some low dimensional examples are given, as well as a discretized field theory with a large number of degrees of freedom and a local nearest neighbor interaction. We also evaluate unequal-time correlations of these systems without direct numerical simulation, by Pad approximants of a short-time expansion. We briefly speculate on the possibility of constructing chaotic dynamical systems with non-integer dimension and exactly known statistics. In this case there is no probability density, suggesting an alternative construction in terms of a Hopf characteristic function and a two-form.

  7. Flavor ratios of extragalactic neutrinos and neutrino shortcuts in extra dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Aeikens, Elke; Päs, Heinrich; Pakvasa, Sandip; Sicking, Philipp

    2015-10-02

    The recent measurement of high energy extragalactic neutrinos by the IceCube Collaboration has opened a new window to probe non-standard neutrino properties. Among other effects, sterile neutrino altered dispersion relations (ADRs) due to shortcuts in an extra dimension can significantly affect astrophysical flavor ratios. We discuss two limiting cases of this effect, first active-sterile neutrino oscillations with a constant ADR potential and second an MSW-like resonant conversion arising from geodesics oscillating around the brane in an asymmetrically warped extra dimension. We demonstrate that the second case has the potential to suppress significantly the flux of specific flavors such as ν{sub μ} or ν{sub τ} at high energies.

  8. Green functions for generalized point interactions in one dimension: A scattering approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schmidt, Alexandre G.M.; Cheng, B.K.; Luz, M.G.E. da

    2002-12-01

    Recently, general point interactions in one dimension has been used to model a large number of different phenomena in quantum mechanics. Such potentials, however, require some sort of regularization to lead to meaningful results. The usual ways to do so rely on technicalities that may hide important physical aspects of the problem. In this work we present a method to calculate the exact Green functions for general point interactions in one dimension. Our approach differs from previous ones because it is based only on physical quantities, namely, the scattering coefficients R and T to construct G. Renormalization or particular mathematical prescriptions are not invoked. The simple formulation of the method makes it easy to extend to more general contexts, such as for lattices of N general point interactions, on a line, on a half-line, under periodic boundary conditions, and confined in a box.

  9. Fractal dimensions of niobium oxide films probed by protons and lithium ions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pehlivan, Esat; Niklasson, Gunnar A.

    2006-09-01

    Cyclic voltammetry (CV) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were used to determine fractal surface dimensions of sputter deposited niobium pentoxide films. Peak currents were determined by CV measurements. Power spectral densities obtained from AFM measurements of the films were used for calculating length scale dependent root mean square roughness. In order to compare the effect of Li and H ion intercalation at the fractal surfaces, LiClO{sub 4} based as well as propionic acid electrolytes were used. The CV measurements gave a fractal dimension of 2.36 when the films were intercalated by Li ions and 1.70 when the films were intercalated by protons. AFM measurements showed that the former value corresponds to the fractal surface roughness of the films, while the latter value is close to the dimensionality of the distribution of hillocks on the surface. We conclude that the protons are preferentially intercalated at such sites.

  10. Simple thermodynamics of strongly coupled one-component-plasma in two and three dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khrapak, Sergey A.; Khrapak, Alexey G.

    2014-10-15

    Simple analytical approximations for the internal energy of the strongly coupled one-component-plasma in two and three dimensions are discussed. As a result, new practical expressions for the internal energy in the fluid phase are proposed. Their accuracy is checked by evaluating the location of the fluid-solid phase transition from the free energy consideration. Possible applications to other related systems are briefly discussed.

  11. The effect of dimension limits on the performance indices of Stirling engine MAC-02

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abenavoli, R.I.; Carlini, M.; Kormanski, H.; Rudzinska, K.

    1995-12-31

    The paper presents a comparative study of different Stirling engine MAC-02 specifications. The MAC-02 is the engine of beta configuration with heater and cooler tubes drilled inside the cylinder wall and connected by an annular regenerator of wire mesh type, surrounding the cylinder. Piston and displacer are driven by Ericsson linkage, which brings some advantages with respect to other conventional drives, however, for its complexity it has not been considered yet in published Stirling engine optimization codes. The most difficult aspects in designing such an engine configuration is the strong interdependence among constructional parameters particularly drive rod angularity, rod, cylinder, piston and heat exchanger dimensions. For this reason a special method for the optimal engine synthesis was elaborated and presented in Impero Abenavoli, R., et al. (1993). The corresponding computer code SE-OPT was used to obtain results discussed in this paper. A number of the engine design specifications were calculated and compared one to another. Each of the cases under consideration was determined as the optimal solution of non-linear programming problem defined with different engine dimension boundaries. The maximum of indicated power was chosen as the objective function. Although several tens of constraints were included into the optimization problems, only the limits imposed on the total engine length and cylinder diameter are analyzed in this paper. The two parameters were considered as variables dependent on the other ones (free and fixed parameters). The effect of these main engine dimension limits on selected performance indices (indicated power and efficiency) and the optimal values of other ensure parameters such as heat exchanger dimensions, linkage parameters and piston phrase angles were investigated.

  12. Use of metallic glasses for fabrication of structures with submicron dimensions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wiley, John D.; Perepezko, John H.

    1986-01-01

    Patterned structures of submicron dimension formed of supported or unsupported amorphous metals having submicron feature sizes characterized by etching behavior sufficient to allow delineation of sharp edges and smooth flat flanks, resistance to time-dependent dimensional changes caused by creep, flow, in-diffusion of unwanted impurities, out-diffusion of constituent atoms, void formation, grain growth or phase separation and resistance to phase transformations or compound formation.

  13. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  14. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  15. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  16. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  17. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  18. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  19. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  20. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  1. Global strings in extra dimensions: The full map of solutions, matter trapping, and the hierarchy problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bronnikov, K. A.; Meierovich, B. E.

    2008-02-15

    We consider (d{sub 0} + 2)-dimensional configurations with global strings in two extra dimensions and a flat metric in d{sub 0} dimensions, endowed with a warp factor e{sup 2{gamma}} depending on the distance l from the string center. All possible regular solutions of the field equations are classified by the behavior of the warp factor and the extradimensional circular radius r(l). Solutions with r {yields} {infinity} and r {yields} const > 0 as l {yields} {infinity} are interpreted in terms of thick brane-world models. Solutions with r {yields} 0 as l {yields} l{sub c} > 0, i.e., those with a second center, are interpreted as either multibrane systems (which are appropriate for large enough distances l{sub c} between the centers) or as Kaluza-Klein-type configurations with extra dimensions invisible due to their smallness. In the case of the Mexican-hat symmetry-breaking potential, we build the full map of regular solutions on the ({epsilon}, {Gamma}) parameter plane, where {epsilon} acts as an effective cosmological constant and {Gamma} characterizes the gravitational field strength. The trapping properties of candidate brane worlds for test scalar fields are discussed. Good trapping properties for massive fields are found for models with increasing warp factors. Kaluza-Klein-type models are shown to have nontrivial warp factor behaviors, leading to matter particle mass spectra that seem promising from the standpoint of hierarchy problems.

  2. Global strings in extra dimensions: The full map of solutions, matter trapping, and the hierarchy problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bronnikov, K. A.; Meierovich, B. E.

    2008-02-15

    We consider (d{sub 0} + 2)-dimensional configurations with global strings in two extra dimensions and a flat metric in d{sub 0} dimensions, endowed with a warp factor e{sup 2{gamma}} depending on the distance l from the string center. All possible regular solutions of the field equations are classified by the behavior of the warp factor and the extradimensional circular radius r(l). Solutions with r {sup {yields}} {infinity} and r {sup {yields}} const > 0 as l {sup {yields}} {infinity} are interpreted in terms of thick brane-world models. Solutions with r {sup {yields}} 0 as l {sup {yields}} l{sub c} > 0, i.e., those with a second center, are interpreted as either multibrane systems (which are appropriate for large enough distances l{sub c} between the centers) or as Kaluza-Klein-type configurations with extra dimensions invisible due to their smallness. In the case of the Mexican-hat symmetry-breaking potential, we build the full map of regular solutions on the ({epsilon}, {gamma}) parameter plane, where {epsilon} acts as an effective cosmological constant and {gamma} characterizes the gravitational field strength. The trapping properties of candidate brane worlds for test scalar fields are discussed. Good trapping properties for massive fields are found for models with increasing warp factors. Kaluza-Klein-type models are shown to have nontrivial warp factor behaviors, leading to matter particle mass spectra that seem promising from the standpoint of hierarchy problems.

  3. Optimizing Moderator Dimensions for Neutron Scattering at the Spallation Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, Jinkui [ORNL; Robertson, Lee [ORNL; Herwig, Kenneth W [ORNL; Gallmeier, Franz X [ORNL; Riemer, Bernie [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In this work, we investigate the effect of neutron moderator dimensions on the performance of neutron scattering instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source. In a recent study of the planned second target station at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility [1,2], we have found that the dimensions of a moderator play a significant role in determining its surface brightness. A smaller moderator may be significantly brighter for a smaller viewing area [4]. One of the immediate implications of this finding is that for modern neutron scattering instrument designs, moderator dimensions and brightness have to be incorporated as an integrated optimization parameter. Here, we establish a strategy of matching neutron scattering instruments with moderators using analytical and Monte Carlo techniques. In order to simplify our treatment, we group the instruments into two broad categories, those with natural collimation and those that use neutron guide systems. We found that the cross-sections of the sample and the neutron guide, respectively, are the deciding factors for choosing the moderator. Beam divergence plays no role as long as it is within the reach of practical constraints. Namely, the required divergence is not too large for the guide or sample to be located close enough to the moderator on an actual spallation source.

  4. Higgs production and decay in models of a warped extra dimension with a bulk Higgs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, Paul R.; Carena, Marcela; Carmona, Adrian; Neubert, Matthias

    2015-01-13

    Warped extra-dimension models in which the Higgs boson is allowed to propagate in the bulk of a compact AdS? space are conjectured to be dual to models featuring a partially composite Higgs boson. They offer a framework with which to investigate the implications of changing the scaling dimension of the Higgs operator, which can be used to reduce the constraints from electroweak precision data. In the context of such models, we calculate the cross section for Higgs production in gluon fusion and the H ? ?? decay rate and show that they are finite (at one-loop order) as a consequence of gauge invariance. The extended scalar sector comprising the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Standard Model scalars is constructed in detail. The largest effects are due to virtual KK fermions, whose contributions to the cross section and decay rate introduce a quadratic sensitivity to the maximum allowed value y* of the random complex entries of the 5D anarchic Yukawa matrices. We find an enhancement of the gluon-fusion cross section and a reduction of the H ? ?? rate as well as of the tree-level Higgs couplings to fermions and electroweak gauge bosons. We perform a detailed study of the correlated signal strengths for different production mechanisms and decay channels as functions of y*, the mass scale of Kaluza-Klein resonances and the scaling dimension of the composite Higgs operator.

  5. Higgs production and decay in models of a warped extra dimension with a bulk Higgs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Archer, Paul R.; Carena, Marcela; Carmona, Adrian; Neubert, Matthias

    2015-01-13

    Warped extra-dimension models in which the Higgs boson is allowed to propagate in the bulk of a compact AdS? space are conjectured to be dual to models featuring a partially composite Higgs boson. They offer a framework with which to investigate the implications of changing the scaling dimension of the Higgs operator, which can be used to reduce the constraints from electroweak precision data. In the context of such models, we calculate the cross section for Higgs production in gluon fusion and the H ? ?? decay rate and show that they are finite (at one-loop order) as a consequencemoreof gauge invariance. The extended scalar sector comprising the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Standard Model scalars is constructed in detail. The largest effects are due to virtual KK fermions, whose contributions to the cross section and decay rate introduce a quadratic sensitivity to the maximum allowed value y* of the random complex entries of the 5D anarchic Yukawa matrices. We find an enhancement of the gluon-fusion cross section and a reduction of the H ? ?? rate as well as of the tree-level Higgs couplings to fermions and electroweak gauge bosons. We perform a detailed study of the correlated signal strengths for different production mechanisms and decay channels as functions of y*, the mass scale of Kaluza-Klein resonances and the scaling dimension of the composite Higgs operator.less

  6. Electric-utility DSM programs: 1990 data and forecasts to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirst, E.

    1992-06-01

    In April 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data on 1989 and 1990 electric-utility demand-site management (DMS) programs. These data represent a census of US utility DSM programs, with reports of utility expenditures, energy savings, and load reductions caused by these programs. In addition, EIA published utility estimates of the costs and effects of these programs from 1991 to 2000. These data provide the first comprehensive picture of what utilities are spending and accomplishing by utility, state, and region. This report presents, summarizes, and interprets the 1990 data and the utility forecasts of their DSM-program expenditures and impacts to the year 2000. Only utilities with annual sales greater than 120 GWh were required to report data on their DSM programs to EIA. Of the 1194 such utilities, 363 reported having a DSM program that year. These 363 electric utilities spent $1.2 billion on their DSM programs in 1990, up from $0.9 billion in 1989. Estimates of energy savings (17,100 GWh in 1990 and 14,800 GWh in 1989) and potential reductions in peak demand (24,400 MW in 1990 and about 19,400 MW in 1989) also showed substantial increases. Overall, utility DSM expenditures accounted for 0.7% of total US electric revenues, while the reductions in energy and demand accounted for 0.6% and 4.9% of their respective 1990 national totals. The investor-owned utilities accounted for 70 to 90% of the totals for DSM costs, energy savings, and demand reductions. The public utilities reported larger percentage reductions in peak demand and energy smaller percentage DSM expenditures. These averages hide tremendous variations across utilities. Utility forecasts of DSM expenditures and effects show substantial growth in both absolute and relative terms.

  7. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  8. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  9. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  10. Quality Control Inspector 2.0: Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy 2.0: Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting Quality Control Inspector 2.0: Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting - Complete (20.91 MB) Lesson Plan: Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting (299.15 KB) PowerPoint: Purpose of Monitoring and Inspecting (20.68 MB) More Documents & Publications Quality Control Inspector 2.0: Regulations and Standards Quality Control Inspector 2.0: Introduction to Weatherization for Quality Control Inspectors

  11. System-Level Logistics for Dual Purpose Canister Disposal

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kalinina, Elena A.

    2014-06-03

    The analysis presented in this report investigated how the direct disposal of dual purpose canisters (DPCs) may be affected by the use of standard transportation aging and disposal canisters (STADs), early or late start of the repository, and the repository emplacement thermal power limits. The impacts were evaluated with regard to the availability of the DPCs for emplacement, achievable repository acceptance rates, additional storage required at an interim storage facility (ISF) and additional emplacement time compared to the corresponding repackaging scenarios, and fuel age at emplacement. The result of this analysis demonstrated that the biggest difference in the availability of UNF for emplacement between the DPC-only loading scenario and the DPCs and STADs loading scenario is for a repository start date of 2036 with a 6 kW thermal power limit. The differences are also seen in the availability of UNF for emplacement between the DPC-only loading scenario and the DPCs and STADs loading scenario for the alternative with a 6 kW thermal limit and a 2048 start date, and for the alternatives with a 10 kW thermal limit and 2036 and 2048 start dates. The alternatives with disposal of UNF in both DPCs and STADs did not require additional storage, regardless of the repository acceptance rate, as compared to the reference repackaging case. In comparison to the reference repackaging case, alternatives with the 18 kW emplacement thermal limit required little to no additional emplacement time, regardless of the repository start time, the fuel loading scenario, or the repository acceptance rate. Alternatives with the 10 kW emplacement thermal limit and the DPCs and STADs fuel loading scenario required some additional emplacement time. The most significant decrease in additional emplacement time occurred in the alternative with the 6 kW thermal limit and the 2036 repository starting date. The average fuel age at emplacement ranges from 46 to 88 years. The maximum fuel age at

  12. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  13. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  14. Higgs production and decay in models of a warped extra dimension with a bulk Higgs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, Paul R.; Carena, Marcela; Carmona, Adrian; Neubert, Matthias

    2015-01-13

    Warped extra-dimension models in which the Higgs boson is allowed to propagate in the bulk of a compact AdS5 space are conjectured to be dual to models featuring a partially composite Higgs boson. They offer a framework with which to investigate the implications of changing the scaling dimension of the Higgs operator, which can be used to reduce the constraints from electroweak precision data. In the context of such models, we calculate the cross section for Higgs production in gluon fusion and the H → γγ decay rate and show that they are finite (at one-loop order) as a consequence of gauge invariance. The extended scalar sector comprising the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Standard Model scalars is constructed in detail. The largest effects are due to virtual KK fermions, whose contributions to the cross section and decay rate introduce a quadratic sensitivity to the maximum allowed value y* of the random complex entries of the 5D anarchic Yukawa matrices. We find an enhancement of the gluon-fusion cross section and a reduction of the H → γγ rate as well as of the tree-level Higgs couplings to fermions and electroweak gauge bosons. As a result, we perform a detailed study of the correlated signal strengths for different production mechanisms and decay channels as functions of y*, the mass scale of Kaluza-Klein resonances and the scaling dimension of the composite Higgs operator.

  15. Higgs production and decay in models of a warped extra dimension with a bulk Higgs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Archer, Paul R.; Carena, Marcela; Carmona, Adrian; Neubert, Matthias

    2015-01-13

    Warped extra-dimension models in which the Higgs boson is allowed to propagate in the bulk of a compact AdS5 space are conjectured to be dual to models featuring a partially composite Higgs boson. They offer a framework with which to investigate the implications of changing the scaling dimension of the Higgs operator, which can be used to reduce the constraints from electroweak precision data. In the context of such models, we calculate the cross section for Higgs production in gluon fusion and the H → γγ decay rate and show that they are finite (at one-loop order) as a consequencemore » of gauge invariance. The extended scalar sector comprising the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Standard Model scalars is constructed in detail. The largest effects are due to virtual KK fermions, whose contributions to the cross section and decay rate introduce a quadratic sensitivity to the maximum allowed value y* of the random complex entries of the 5D anarchic Yukawa matrices. We find an enhancement of the gluon-fusion cross section and a reduction of the H → γγ rate as well as of the tree-level Higgs couplings to fermions and electroweak gauge bosons. As a result, we perform a detailed study of the correlated signal strengths for different production mechanisms and decay channels as functions of y*, the mass scale of Kaluza-Klein resonances and the scaling dimension of the composite Higgs operator.« less

  16. Search for Universal Extra Dimensions in p(p)over-bar Collisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abazov V. M.; Abbott B.; Acharya B. S.; Adams M.; Adams T.; Alexeev G. D.; Alkhazov G.; Alton A.; Alverson G.; Aoki M.; Askew A.; Asman B.; Atkins S.; Atramentov O.; Augsten K.; Avila C.; BackusMayes J.; Badaud F.; Bagby L.; Baldin B.; Bandurin D. V.; Banerjee S.; Barberis E.; Baringer P.; Barreto J.; Bartlett J. F.; Bassler U.; Bazterra V.; Bean A.; Begalli M.; Belanger-Champagne C.; Bellantoni L.; Beri S. B.; Bernardi G.; Bernhard R.; Bertram I.; Besancon M.; Beuselinck R.; Bezzubov V. A.; Bhat P. C.; Bhatia S.; Bhatnagar V.; Blazey G.; Blessing S.; Bloom K.; Boehnlein A.; Boline D.; Boos E. E.; Borissov G.; Bose T.; Brandt A.; Brandt O.; Brock R.; Brooijmans G.; Bross A.; Brown D.; Brown J.; Bu X. B.; Buehler M.; Buescher V.; Bunichev V.; Burdin S.; Burnett T. H.; Buszello C. P.; Calpas B.; Camacho-Perez E.; Carrasco-Lizarraga M. A.; Casey B. C. K.; Castilla-Valdez H.; Chakrabarti S.; Chakraborty D.; Chan K. M.; Chandra A.; Chapon E.; Chen G.; Chevalier-Thery S.; Cho D. K.; Cho S. W.; Choi S.; Choudhary B.; Cihangir S.; Claes D.; Clutter J.; Cooke M.; Cooper W. E.; Corcoran M.; Couderc F.; Cousinou M-C; Croc A.; Cutts D.; Das A.; Davies G.; de Jong S. J.; De La Cruz-Burelo E.; Deliot F.; Demina R.; Denisov D.; Denisov S. P.; Desai S.; Deterre C.; DeVaughan K.; Diehl H. T.; Diesburg M.; Ding P. F.; Dominguez A.; Dorland T.; Dubey A.; Dudko L. V.; Duggan D.; Duperrin A.; Dutt S.; Dyshkant A.; Eads M.; Edmunds D.; Ellison J.; Elvira V. D.; Enari Y.; Evans H.; Evdokimov A.; Evdokimov V. N.; Facini G.; Ferbel T.; Fiedler F.; Filthaut F.; Fisher W.; Fisk H. E.; Fortner M.; Fox H.; Fuess S.; Garcia-Bellido A.; Garcia-Guerra G. A.; Gavrilov V.; Gay P.; Geng W.; Gerbaudo D.; Gerber C. E.; Gershtein Y.; Ginther G.; Golovanov G.; Goryachev V. N.; Goussiou A.; Grannis P. D.; Greder S.; Greenlee H.; Greenwood Z. D.; Gregores E. M.; Grenier G.; Gris Ph; Grivaz J-F; Grohsjean A.; Gruenendahl S.; Gruenewald M. W.; Guillemin T.; Gutierrez G.; Gutierrez P.; Haas A.; Hagopian S.; Haley J.; Han L.; Harder K.; Harel A.; Hauptman J. M.; Hays J.; Head T.; Hebbeker T.; Hedin D.; Hegab H.; Heinson A. P.; Heintz U.; Hensel C.; Heredia-De La Cruz I.; Herner K.; Hesketh G.; Hildreth M. D.; Hirosky R.; Hoang T.; Hobbs J. D.; Hoeneisen B.; Hohlfeld M.; Hubacek Z.; Hynek V.; Iashvili I.; Ilchenko Y.; Illingworth R.; Ito A. S.; Jabeen S.; Jaffre M.; Jamin D.; Jayasinghe A.; Jesik R.; Johns K.; Johnson M.; Jonckheere A.; Jonsson P.; Joshi J.; Jung A. W.; Juste A.; Kaadze K.; Kajfasz E.; Karmanov D.; Kasper P. A.; Katsanos I.; Kehoe R.; Kermiche S.; Khalatyan N.; Khanov A.; Kharchilava A.; Kharzheev Y. N.; Kohli J. M.; Kozelov A. V.; Kraus J.; Kulikov S.; Kumar A.; Kupco A.; Kurca T.; Kuzmin V. A.; Lammers S.; Landsberg G.; Lebrun P.; Lee H. S.; Lee S. W.; Lee W. M.; Lellouch J.; Li H.; Li L.; Li Q. Z.; Lietti S. M.; Lim J. K.; Lincoln D.; Linnemann J.; Lipaev V. V.; Lipton R.; Liu Y.; Lobodenko A.; Lokajicek M.; de Sa R. Lopes; Lubatti H. J.; Luna-Garcia R.; Lyon A. L.; Maciel A. K. A.; Mackin D.; Madar R.; Magana-Villalba R.; Malik S.; Malyshev V. L.; Mansour J.; Maravin Y.; Martinez-Ortega J.; McCarthy R.; McGivern C. L.; Meijer M. M.; Melnitchouk A.; Menezes D.; Mercadante P. G.; Merkin M.; Meyer A.; Meyer J.; et al.

    2012-03-30

    We present a search for Kaluza-Klein (KK) particles predicted by models with universal extra dimensions (UED) using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7.3 fb{sup -1}, collected by the D0 detector at a p{bar p} center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The decay chain of KK particles can lead to a final state with two muons of the same charge. This signature is used to set a lower limit on the compactification scale of R{sup -1} > 260 GeV in a minimal UED model.

  17. A Method for Connecting Dissimilar Finite Element Meshes in Three Dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dohrmann, C.R.; Heinstein, M.W.; Key, S.W.

    1998-11-12

    A method is presented for connecting dissimilar finite element meshes in three dimensions. The method combines the concept of master and slave surfaces with the uniform strain approach for surface, corrections finite elements- By modifyhg the are made to element formulations boundaries of elements on the slave such that first-order patch tests are passed. The method can be used to connect meshes which use different element types. In addition, master and slave surfaces can be designated independently of relative mesh resolutions. Example problems in three-dimensional linear elasticity are presented.

  18. Analytical solutions of a generalized non-central potential in N-dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Durmus, Aysen; zfidan, Aysel

    2014-10-15

    We present that N-dimensional non-relativistic wave equation for the generalized non-central potential with arbitrary angular momentum is analytically solvable in the hyperspherical coordinates. Asymptotic iteration method as a different approach is applied to obtain N-dimensional energy eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenfunctions. In hyperspherical coordinates, the wave function solutions are obtained in terms of hypergeometric functions and Jacobi polynomials. The bound states of quantum systems under consideration for some special cases, such as Hartmann and Makarov potentials, have been discussed in N-dimensions.

  19. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  20. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  1. Search for signatures of extra dimensions in the diphoton mass spectrum at the Large Hadron Collider

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatrchyan, Serguei; Khachatryan, Vardan; Sirunyan, Albert M.; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; /Yerevan Phys. Inst. /Vienna, OAW /Minsk, High Energy Phys. Ctr. /Antwerp U., WISINF /Vrije U., Brussels /Brussels U. /Gent U. /Louvain U. /UMH, Mons /Rio de Janeiro, CBPF /Rio de Janeiro State U.

    2011-12-01

    A search for signatures of extra dimensions in the diphoton invariant-mass spectrum has been performed with the CMS detector at the LHC. No excess of events above the standard model expectation is observed using a data sample collected in proton-proton collisions at {radical}s = 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.2 fb{sup -1}. In the context of the large-extra-dimensions model, lower limits are set on the effective Planck scale in the range of 2.3-3.8 TeV at the 95% confidence level. These limits are the most restrictive bounds on virtual-graviton exchange to date. The most restrictive lower limits to date are also set on the mass of the first graviton excitation in the Randall-Sundrum model in the range of 0.86-1.84 TeV, for values of the associated coupling parameter between 0.01 and 0.10.

  2. Ground-state energy of the interacting Bose gas in two dimensions: An explicit construction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Beane, Silas R.

    2010-12-15

    The isotropic scattering phase shift is calculated for nonrelativistic bosons interacting at low energies via an arbitrary finite-range potential in d space-time dimensions. Scattering on a (d-1)-dimensional torus is then considered, and the eigenvalue equation relating the energy levels on the torus to the scattering phase shift is derived. With this technology in hand, and focusing on the case of two spatial dimensions, a perturbative expansion is developed for the ground-state energy of N identical bosons which interact via an arbitrary finite-range potential in a finite area. The leading nonuniversal effects due to range corrections and three-body forces are included. It is then shown that the thermodynamic limit of the ground-state energy in a finite area can be taken in closed form to obtain the energy per particle in the low-density expansion by explicitly summing the parts of the finite-area energy that diverge with powers of N. The leading and subleading finite-size corrections to the thermodynamic limit equation of state are also computed. Closed-form results--some well known, others perhaps not--for two-dimensional lattice sums are included in an Appendix.

  3. Weapons proliferation and organized crime: The Russian military and security force dimension

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turbiville, G.H.

    1996-06-01

    One dimension of international security of the post-Cold War era that has not received enough attention is how organized crime facilitates weapons proliferation worldwide. The former Soviet Union (FSU) has emerged as the world`s greatest counterproliferation challenge. It contains the best developed links among organized crime, military and security organizations, and weapons proliferation. Furthermore, Russian military and security forces are the principle source of arms becoming available to organized crime groups, participants in regional conflict, and corrupt state officials engaged in the black, gray, and legal arms markets in their various dimensions. The flourishing illegal trade in conventional weapons is the clearest and most tangible manifestation of the close links between Russian power ministries and criminal organizations. The magnitude of the WMD proliferation problem from the FSU is less clear and less tangible. There have been many open reports of small-scale fissile material smuggling out of the FSU. The situation with regard to the proliferation of chemical weapon usually receives less attention but may be more serious. With an acknowledged stockpile of 40,000 metric tons of chemical agents, the potential for proliferation is enormous.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills June 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for Residential Electric Bills i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by

  5. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  6. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  7. Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship: should we care about the Rockets and the Feathers?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,153 3,253 3.2% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.98 0.2% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $422 3.3% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,993 2,051 2.9% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.36 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $372 $377 1.3% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,372 2,431 2.5% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  8. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  9. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  10. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  11. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  12. I. Purpose

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... Alternative methodologies must be reviewed, confirmed, and documented by a third party with valid and relevant industry experience and credentials and be submitted to DOE. DOE ...

  13. I. Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    authorized operator of qualified hydroelectric facilities for electric energy generated and sold from a qualified hydroelectric facility for a specified 10-year period. (See 42 U.S.C. 15881) The Department of Energy (DOE) has not made these incentive payments in the past due to a lack of appropriations for the hydroelectric production incentive. The Joint Explanatory Statement to the Fiscal Year 2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill, however, includes $3,600,000 for conventional hydropower under

  14. I. Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    operator of qualified hydroelectric facilities for electric energy generated and sold from a qualified hydroelectric facility for a specified 10-year period. (See 42 U.S.C. 15881) The Department of Energy (DOE) has not made these incentive payments in the past due to a lack of appropriations for the hydroelectric production incentive. The Joint Explanatory Statement to the Fiscal Year 2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill, however, includes $3,600,000 for conventional hydropower under section 242 of

  15. I. Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    development at existing dams and impoundments through an incentive payment procedure. ... The amount of such payment made to any such owner or operator shall be as determined under ...

  16. I. Purpose

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The amount of such payment made to any such owner or operator shall be as determined under ... receipt by the Secretary of an incentive payment application which establishes that the ...

  17. Distinguishing Supersymmetry From Universal Extra Dimensions or Little Higgs Models With Dark Matter Experiments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hooper, Dan; Zaharijas, Gabrijela; /Fermilab

    2006-12-01

    There are compelling reasons to think that new physics will appear at or below the TeV-scale. It is not known what form this new physics will take, however. Although The Large Hadron collider is very likely to discover new particles associated with the TeV-scale, it may be difficult for it to determine the nature of those particles, whether superpartners, Kaluza-Klein modes or other states. In this article, we consider how direct and indirect dark matter detection experiments may provide information complementary to hadron colliders, which can be used to discriminate between supersymmetry, models with universal extra dimensions, and Little Higgs theories. We find that, in many scenarios, dark matter experiments can be effectively used to distinguish between these possibilities.

  18. Triviality of the BCS-BEC crossover in extended dimensions: Implications for the ground state energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nussinov, Zohar [Department of Physics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63160-4899 (United States); Nussinov, Shmuel [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Ramat-Aviv, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2006-11-15

    Cold atom traps and certain neutron star layers may contain fermions with separation much larger than the range of pairwise potentials yet much shorter than the scattering length. Such systems can display universal characteristics independent of the details of the short range interactions. Our main result is that for space dimensions D smaller than two and larger than four a specific extension of this problem is amenable to exact results. In particular, the energy per particle at the BCS-BEC crossover point is equal to the energy of the free fermion system in all D{<=}2 whereas this energy is rigorously nonpositive (and potentially vanishing) in all D{>=}4. We discuss the D=3 case. A particular unjustified recipe suggests {xi}=1/2 in D=3.

  19. Single-crystal diamond refractive lens for focusing X-rays in two dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antipov, S.; Baryshev, Sergey; Butler, J. E.; Antipova, O.; Liu, Zunping; Stoupin, S.

    2016-01-01

    The fabrication and performance evaluation of single-crystal diamond refractive X-ray lenses of which the surfaces are paraboloids of revolution for focusing X-rays in two dimensions simultaneously are reported. The lenses were manufactured using a femtosecond laser micromachining process and tested using X-ray synchrotron radiation. Such lenses were stacked together to form a standard compound refractive lens (CRL). Owing to the superior physical properties of the material, diamond CRLs could become indispensable wavefront-preserving primary focusing optics for X-ray free-electron lasers and the next-generation synchrotron storage rings. They can be used for highly efficient refocusing of the extremely bright X-ray sources for secondary optical schemes with limited aperture such as nanofocusing Fresnel zone plates and multilayer Laue lenses.

  20. All bulk and boundary unitary cubic curvature theories in three dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guellue, Ibrahim; Sisman, Tahsin Cagri; Tekin, Bayram

    2011-01-15

    We construct all the bulk and boundary unitary cubic curvature parity invariant gravity theories in three dimensions in (anti)-de Sitter spaces. For bulk unitarity, our construction is based on the principle that the free theory of the cubic curvature theory reduces to one of the three known unitary theories which are the cosmological Einstein-Hilbert theory, the quadratic theory of the scalar curvature, or the new massive gravity (NMG). Bulk and boundary unitarity in NMG is in conflict; therefore, cubic theories that are unitary both in the bulk and on the boundary have free theories that reduce to the other two alternatives. We also study the unitarity of the Born-Infeld extensions of NMG to all orders in curvature.

  1. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  2. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  3. Idaho IC 61-1701, Legislative Purposes and Findings for the Siting...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    701, Legislative Purposes and Findings for the Siting of Certain Electrical Transmission Facilities Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Legal...

  4. Initial Assessment of U.S. Refineries for Purposes of Potential...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. Refineries for Purposes of Potential Bio-Based Oil Insertions Freeman, Charles J.; Jones, Susanne B.; Padmaperuma, Asanga B.; Santosa, Daniel M.; Valkenburg, Corinne; Shinn,...

  5. ug[SCIP,*] Library : A Software Library for General Purpose Parallel...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ugSCIP,* Library : A Software Library for General Purpose Parallel Branch-and-Bound ... ugSCIP,* library is a software library to parallelize customized SCIP solvers. ...

  6. There appears to be some confusion regarding the purpose of the...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to be some confusion regarding the purpose of the public meetings that the Department of Energy and the Washington State Department of Ecology are holding and the potential...

  7. Purpose and Need: CEQ Exchange of Letters with Secretary of Transportation (CEQ, 2003)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A discussion between the Council on Environmental Quality and the Secretary of Transportation on how to formulate a Purpose and Need statement with multiple cooperating agencies.

  8. Search for large extra dimensions in the exclusive photon + missing energy channel in p anti-p collisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lazoflores, Jose A.; /Florida State U.

    2006-04-01

    A search was conducted for evidence of large extra dimensions (LED) at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory's Tevatron using the D0 detector. The Tevatron is a p{bar p} collider at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. Events with particles escaping into extra dimensions will have large missing energy. The search was carried out using data from a total luminosity of 197 {+-} 13 pb{sup -1} with an observable high transverse momentum photon and a large transverse missing energy. The 70 observed events are consistent with photons produced by standard known reactions plus other background processes produced by cosmic muons. The mass limits on the fundamental mass scale at 95% confidence level for large extra dimensions of 2, 4, 6 and 8 are 500 GeV, 581 GeV, 630 GeV, and 668 GeV respectively.

  9. Fractal dimension of cohesive sediment flocs at steady state under seven shear flow conditions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhu, Zhongfan; Yu, Jingshan; Wang, Hongrui; Dou, Jie; Wang, Cheng

    2015-08-12

    The morphological properties of kaolin flocs were investigated in a Couette-flow experiment at the steady state under seven shear flow conditions (shear rates of 5.36, 9.17, 14, 24, 31, 41 and 53 s-1). These properties include a one-dimensional (1-D) fractal dimension (D1), a two-dimensional (2-D) fractal dimension (D2), a perimeter-based fractal dimension (Dpf) and an aspect ratio (AR). They were calculated based on the projected area (A), equivalent size, perimeter (P) and length (L) of the major axis of the floc determined through sample observation and an image analysis system. The parameter D2, which characterizes the relationship between the projectedmore » area and the length of the major axis using a power function, A ∝ LD2, increased from 1.73 ± 0.03, 1.72 ± 0.03, and 1.75 ± 0.04 in the low shear rate group (G = 5.36, 9.17, and 14 s-1) to 1.92 ± 0.03, 1.82 ± 0.02, 1.85 ± 0.02, and 1.81 ± 0.02 in the high shear rate group (24, 31, 41 and 53 s-1), respectively. The parameter D1 characterizes the relationship between the perimeter and length of the major axis by the function P ∝ LD1 and decreased from 1.52 ± 0.02, 1.48 ± 0.02, 1.55 ± 0.02, and 1.63 ± 0.02 in the low shear group (5.36, 9.17, 14 and 24 s-1) to 1.45 ± 0.02, 1.39 ± 0.02, and 1.39 ± 0.02 in the high shear group (31, 41 and 53 s-1), respectively. The results indicate that with increasing shear rates, the flocs become less elongated and that their boundary lines become tighter and more regular, caused by more breakages and possible restructurings of the flocs. The parameter Dpf, which is related to the perimeter and the projected area through the function , decreased as the shear rate increased almost linearly. The parameter AR, which is the ratio of the length of the major axis and equivalent diameter, decreased from 1.56, 1.59, 1.53 and 1.51 in the low shear rate group to 1.43, 1.47 and 1.48 in the high shear rate group. These changes in Dpf and AR show that the flocs become

  10. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  11. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  12. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer at $3.94 a gallon The retail price of diesel fuel is expected to average $3.94 a gallon during the summer driving season that which runs from April through September. That's close to last summer's pump price of $3.95, according to the latest monthly energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Demand for distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel, is expected to be up less than 1 percent from last summer. Daily

  13. Geometrical properties of the trans-spherical solutions in higher dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kang, Gungwon; Kim, Hyeong-Chan; Lee, Jungjai

    2009-06-15

    We investigate the geometrical properties of static vacuum p-brane solutions of Einstein gravity in D=n+p+3 dimensions, which have spherical symmetry of S{sup n+1} orthogonal to the p directions and which are invariant under the translation along them. The solutions are characterized by the mass density and p number of tension densities. The causal structure of the higher-dimensional solutions is essentially the same as that of the five-dimensional ones. Namely, a naked singularity appears for most solutions except for the Schwarzschild black p-brane and the Kaluza-Klein bubble. We show that some important geometric properties such as the area of S{sup n+1} and the total spatial volume are characterized only by the three parameters (the mass density, the sum of tension densities, and the sum of tension density squares), rather than individual tension densities. These geometric properties are analyzed in detail in this parameter space and are compared with those of the five-dimensional case.

  14. Group-invariant solutions of semilinear Schrdinger equations in multi-dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anco, Stephen C.; Feng, Wei; Department of Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014

    2013-12-15

    Symmetry group methods are applied to obtain all explicit group-invariant radial solutions to a class of semilinear Schrdinger equations in dimensions n ? 1. Both focusing and defocusing cases of a power nonlinearity are considered, including the special case of the pseudo-conformal power p = 4/n relevant for critical dynamics. The methods involve, first, reduction of the Schrdinger equations to group-invariant semilinear complex 2nd order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with respect to an optimal set of one-dimensional point symmetry groups, and second, use of inherited symmetries, hidden symmetries, and conditional symmetries to solve each ODE by quadratures. Through Noether's theorem, all conservation laws arising from these point symmetry groups are listed. Some group-invariant solutions are found to exist for values of n other than just positive integers, and in such cases an alternative two-dimensional form of the Schrdinger equations involving an extra modulation term with a parameter m = 2?n ? 0 is discussed.

  15. Search for Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron Stars with the Fermi-LAT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berenji, Bijan; /Stanford U., Appl. Phys. Dept. /SLAC

    2012-09-19

    Large extra dimensions (LED) have been proposed to account for the apparent weakness of gravitation. These theories also indicate that the postulated massive Kaluza-Klein (KK) gravitons may be produced by nucleon-nucleon bremsstrahlung in the course of core collapse of supernovae. Hannestad and Raffelt have predicted energy spectra of gamma ray emission from the decay of KK gravitons trapped by the gravity of the remnant neutron stars (NS). These and other authors have used EGRET data on NS to obtain stringent limits on LED. Fermi-LAT is observing radio pulsar positions obtained from radio and x-ray catalogs. NS with certain characteristics are unlikely emitter of gamma rays, and emit in radio and perhaps x-rays. This talk will focus on the blind analysis we plan to perform, which has been developed using the 1st 2 months of all sky data and Monte Carlo simulations, to obtain limits on LED based on about 1 year of Fermi-LAT data. Preliminary limits from this analysis using these first 2 months of data will be also be discussed.

  16. Hamiltonian dynamics of an exotic action for gravity in three dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Escalante, Alberto Manuel-Cabrera, J.

    2014-04-15

    The Hamiltonian dynamics and the canonical covariant formalism for an exotic action in three dimensions are performed. By working with the complete phase space, we report a complete Hamiltonian description of the theory such as the extended action, the extended Hamiltonian, the algebra among the constraints, the Diracs brackets and the correct gauge transformations. In addition, we show that in spite of exotic action and tetrad gravity with a cosmological constant give rise to the same equations of motion, they are not equivalent, in fact, we show that their corresponding Diracs brackets are quite different. Finally, we construct a gauge invariant symplectic form which in turn represents a complete Hamiltonian description of the covariant phase space. -- Highlights: We report a detailed Hamiltonian analysis for an exotic action of gravity. We show that Palatini and exotic actions are not equivalent. The exotic action is a non-commutative theory. The fundamental gauge transformations of the theory are ?-deformed Poincar transformations. A Lorentz and gauge invariant symplectic two-form is constructed.

  17. Critical-field theory of the Kondo lattice model in two dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Ki-Seok

    2005-05-15

    In the context of the U(1) slave-boson theory we derive a critical-field theory near the quantum-critical point of the Kondo lattice model in two spatial dimensions. First, we argue that strong gauge fluctuations in the U(1) slave-boson theory give rise to confinement between spinons and holons, thus causing 'neutralized' spinons in association with the slave-boson U(1) gauge field. Second, we show that critical fluctuations of Kondo singlets near the quantum-critical point result in a new U(1) gauge field. This emergent gauge field has nothing to do with the slave-boson U(1) gauge field. Third, we find that the slave-boson U(1) gauge field can be exactly integrated out in the low-energy limit. As a result we find a critical-field theory in terms of renormalized conduction electrons and neutralized spinons interacting via the new emergent U(1) gauge field. Based on this critical-field theory we obtain the temperature dependence of the specific heat and the imaginary part of the self-energy of the renormalized electrons. These quantities display non-Fermi-liquid behavior near the quantum-critical point.

  18. A curvilinear, fully implicit, conservative electromagnetic PIC algorithm in multiple dimensions

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Chacon, L.; Chen, G.

    2016-04-19

    Here, we extend a recently proposed fully implicit PIC algorithm for the Vlasov–Darwin model in multiple dimensions (Chen and Chacón (2015) [1]) to curvilinear geometry. As in the Cartesian case, the approach is based on a potential formulation (Φ, A), and overcomes many difficulties of traditional semi-implicit Darwin PIC algorithms. Conservation theorems for local charge and global energy are derived in curvilinear representation, and then enforced discretely by a careful choice of the discretization of field and particle equations. Additionally, the algorithm conserves canonical-momentum in any ignorable direction, and preserves the Coulomb gauge ∇ • A = 0 exactly. Anmore » asymptotically well-posed fluid preconditioner allows efficient use of large cell sizes, which are determined by accuracy considerations, not stability, and can be orders of magnitude larger than required in a standard explicit electromagnetic PIC simulation. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency properties of the algorithm with numerical experiments in mapped meshes in 1D-3V and 2D-3V.« less

  19. Microscopic description of anisotropic low-density dipolar Bose gases in two dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Macia, A.; Mazzanti, F.; Boronat, J.; Zillich, R. E.

    2011-09-15

    A microscopic description of the zero-energy two-body ground state and many-body static properties of anisotropic homogeneous gases of bosonic dipoles in two dimensions at low densities is presented and discussed. By changing the polarization angle with respect to the plane, we study the impact of the anisotropy, present in the dipole-dipole interaction, on the energy per particle, comparing the results with mean-field predictions. We restrict the analysis to the regime where the interaction is always repulsive, although the strength of the repulsion depends on the orientation with respect to the polarization field. We present a series expansion of the solution of the zero-energy two-body problem, which allows us to find the scattering length of the interaction and to build a suitable Jastrow factor that we use as a trial wave function for both a variational and diffusion Monte Carlo simulation of the infinite system. We find that the anisotropy has an almost negligible impact on the ground-state properties of the many-body system in the universal regime where the scattering length governs the physics of the system. We also show that scaling in the gas parameter persists in the dipolar case up to values where other isotropic interactions with the same scattering length yield different predictions.

  20. The application of light-cone quantization to quantum chromodynamics in one-plus-one dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hornbostel, K.J.

    1988-12-01

    Formal and computational aspects of light cone quantization are studied by application to quantum chromodynamics (QCD) in one spatial plus one temporal dimension. This quantization scheme, which has been extensively applied to perturbative calculations, is shown to provide an intuitively appealing and numerically tractable approach to non-perturbative computations as well. In the initial section, a light-cone quantization procedure is developed which incorporates fields on the boundaries. This allows for the consistent treatment of massless fermions and the construction of explicitly conserved momentum and charge operators. The next section, which comprises the majority of this work, focuses on the numerical solution of the light-cone Schrodinger equation for bound states. The state space is constructed and the Hamiltonian is evaluated and diagonalized by computer for arbitrary number of colors, baryon number and coupling constant strength. As a result, the full spectrum of mesons and baryons and their associated wavefunctions are determined. These results are compared with those which exist from other approaches to test the reliability of the method. The program also provides a preliminary test for the feasibility of, and an opportunity to develop approximation schemes for, an attack on three-plus-one dimensional QCD. Finally, analytic results are presented which include a discussion of integral equations for wavefunctions and their endpoint behavior. Solutions for hadronic masses and wavefunctions in the limits of both large and small quark mass are discussed. 49 refs., 32 figs., 10 tabs.

  1. Analysis to determine the maximum dimensions of flexible apertures in sensored security netting products.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Murton, Mark; Bouchier, Francis A.; vanDongen, Dale T.; Mack, Thomas Kimball; Cutler, Robert Paul; Ross, Michael P.

    2013-08-01

    Although technological advances provide new capabilities to increase the robustness of security systems, they also potentially introduce new vulnerabilities. New capability sometimes requires new performance requirements. This paper outlines an approach to establishing a key performance requirement for an emerging intrusion detection sensor: the sensored net. Throughout the security industry, the commonly adopted standard for maximum opening size through barriers is a requirement based on square inches-typically 96 square inches. Unlike standard rigid opening, the dimensions of a flexible aperture are not fixed, but variable and conformable. It is demonstrably simple for a human intruder to move through a 96-square-inch opening that is conformable to the human body. The longstanding 96-square-inch requirement itself, though firmly embedded in policy and best practice, lacks a documented empirical basis. This analysis concluded that the traditional 96-square-inch standard for openings is insufficient for flexible openings that are conformable to the human body. Instead, a circumference standard is recommended for these newer types of sensored barriers. The recommended maximum circumference for a flexible opening should be no more than 26 inches, as measured on the inside of the netting material.

  2. Nonlinear quantum-mechanical system associated with Sine-Gordon equation in (1 + 2) dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zarmi, Yair

    2014-10-15

    Despite the fact that it is not integrable, the (1 + 2)-dimensional Sine-Gordon equation has N-soliton solutions, whose velocities are lower than the speed of light (c = 1), for all N ≥ 1. Based on these solutions, a quantum-mechanical system is constructed over a Fock space of particles. The coordinate of each particle is an angle around the unit circle. U, a nonlinear functional of the particle number-operators, which obeys the Sine-Gordon equation in (1 + 2) dimensions, is constructed. Its eigenvalues on N-particle states in the Fock space are the slower-than-light, N-soliton solutions of the equation. A projection operator (a nonlinear functional of U), which vanishes on the single-particle subspace, is a mass-density generator. Its eigenvalues on multi-particle states play the role of the mass density of structures that emulate free, spatially extended, relativistic particles. The simplicity of the quantum-mechanical system allows for the incorporation of perturbations with particle interactions, which have the capacity to “annihilate” and “create” solitons – an effect that does not have an analog in perturbed classical nonlinear evolution equations.

  3. A PRECISION TEST FOR AN EXTRA SPATIAL DIMENSION USING BLACK-HOLE-PULSAR BINARIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simonetti, John H.; Minic, Djordje; Surani, Umair; Vijayan, Vipin; Kavic, Michael

    2011-08-20

    We discuss the observable effects of enhanced black hole mass loss in a black hole-neutron star (BH-NS) binary, due to the presence of a warped extra spatial dimension of curvature radius L in the braneworld scenario. For some masses and orbital parameters in the expected ranges the binary components would outspiral-the opposite of the behavior due to energy loss from gravitational radiation alone. If the NS is a pulsar, observations of the rate of change of the orbital period with a precision obtained for the binary pulsar B1913+16 could easily detect the effect of mass loss. For M{sub BH} = 7 M{sub sun}, M{sub NS} = 1.4 M{sub sun}, eccentricity e = 0.1, and L = 10 {mu}m, the critical orbital period dividing systems that inspiral from systems that outspiral is P {approx} 6.5 hr, which is within the range of expected orbital periods; this value drops to P {approx} 4.2 hr for M{sub BH} = 5 M{sub sun}. Observations of a BH-pulsar system could set considerably better limits on L in these braneworld models than could be determined by torsion-balance gravity experiments in the foreseeable future.

  4. Physics-based dimension reduction in uncertainty quantification for radiative transfer

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hetzler, A. C.; Adams, M. L.; Stripling Iv, H. F.; Hawkins, W. D.

    2013-07-01

    We present a physics-based methodology for quantifying the uncertainty in a given quantity of interest (QOI) that is contributed by uncertainties in opacities in radiation transport problems. Typically, opacities are tabulated as a function of density, temperature, and photon energy group. The size of this table makes a study of uncertainties at this level challenging because of the well-known 'curse of dimensionality.' We address this by studying uncertain parameters in the underlying physical model that generates the opacity tables. At this level, there are fewer uncertain parameters but still too many to analyze directly through computationally expensive radiation transport simulations. In order to explore this large uncertain parameter space, we develop two simplified radiation transport problems that are much less computationally demanding than the target problem of interest. An emulator is created for each QOI for each simplified problem using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS). This emulator is used to create a functional relationship between the QOIs and the uncertain parameters. Sensitivity analysis is performed using the emulator to determine which parameters contribute significantly to the uncertainty. This physics-based screening process reduces the dimension of the parameter space that is then studied via the computationally expensive radiation transport calculation to generate distributions of quantities of interest. Results of this research demonstrate that the QOIs for the target problem agree for varying screening criteria determined by the sensitivity analysis, and the QOIs agree well for varying Latin Hypercube Design (LHD) sample sizes for the uncertain space. (authors)

  5. Critical Dimensions of Water-tamped Slabs and Spheres of Active Material

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Greuling, E.; Argo, H.: Chew, G.; Frankel, M. E.; Konopinski, E.J.; Marvin, C.; Teller, E.

    1946-08-06

    The magnitude and distribution of the fission rate per unit area produced by three energy groups of moderated neutrons reflected from a water tamper into one side of an infinite slab of active material is calculated approximately in section II. This rate is directly proportional to the current density of fast neutrons from the active material incident on the water tamper. The critical slab thickness is obtained in section III by solving an inhomogeneous transport integral equation for the fast-neutron current density into the tamper. Extensive use is made of the formulae derived in "The Mathematical Development of the End-Point Method" by Frankel and Goldberg. In section IV slight alterations in the theory outlined in sections II and III were made so that one could approximately compute the critical radius of a water-tamper sphere of active material. The derived formulae were applied to calculate the critical dimensions of water-tamped slabs and spheres of solid UF{sub 6} leaving various (25) isotope enrichment fractions. Decl. Dec. 16, 1955.

  6. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  7. Integration of US Department of Energy contractor installations for the purpose of optimizing treatment, storage, and disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lucas, M.; Gnoose, J.; Coony, M.; Martin, E.; Piscitella, R.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) manages a multibillion dollar environmental management (EM) program. In June 1996, the Assistant Secretary of Energy for EM issued a memorandum with guidance and a vision for a ten year planning process for the EM Program. The purpose of this process, which became known as the Accelerated Cleanup: Focus on 2006, is to make step changes within the DOE complex regarding the approach for making meaningful environmental cleanup progress. To augment the process, Assistant Secretary requested the site contractors to engage in an effort to identify and evaluate integration alternatives for EM waste stream treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) that would parallel the 2006 Plan. In October 1996, ten DOE contractor installations began the task of identifying alternative opportunities for low level radioactive waste (LLW). Cost effective, efficient solutions were necessary to meet all requirements associated with storing, characterizing, treating, packaging, transporting, and disposing of LLW while protecting the workers` health and safety, and minimizing impacts to the environment. To develop these solutions, a systems engineering approach was used to establish the baseline requirements, to develop alternatives, and to evaluate the alternatives. Key assumptions were that unique disposal capabilities exist within the DOE that must be maintained; private sector disposal capability for some LLW may not continue to exist into the foreseeable future; and decisions made by the LLW Team must be made on a system or complex wide basis to fully realize the potential cost and schedule benefits. This integration effort promoted more accurate waste volume estimates and forecasts; enhanced recognition of existing treatment, storage, and disposal capabilities and capacities; and improved identification of cost savings across the complex.

  8. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  9. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  10. Predicting Pattern Tooling and Casting Dimensions for Investment Casting, Phase II

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nick Cannell; Adrian S. Sabau

    2005-09-30

    the shell mold. A model for thermal radiation within the shell mold was developed, and the thermal model was successfully validated using ProCAST. Since the fused silica shells had the lowest thermal expansion properties in the industry, the dewaxing phase, including the coupling between wax-shell systems, was neglected. The prefiring of the empty shell mold was considered in the model, and the shell mold was limited to a pure elastic material. The alloy dimensions were obtained from numerical simulations only with coupled shell-alloy systems. The alloy dimensions were in excellent quantitative agreement with experimental data, validating the deformation module. For actual parts, however, the creep properties of the shell molds must also be obtained, modeled, and validated.

  11. Table N1.3. First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ... It is the total amount of first use of energy" "for all (fuel and nonfuel) purposes." " ... for any table cell, multiply the cell's" "corresponding RSE column and RSE row factors. ...

  12. EIA Energy Efficiency-Table 2a. First Use for All Purposes (Primary...

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    a Page Last Modified: May 2010 Table 2a. Consumption of Energy (Primary 1 Energy) for All Purposes (First Use) for Selected Industries, 1998, 2002, and 2006 (Trillion Btu) MECS...

  13. Summary of Investigations on Technical Feasibility of Direct Disposal of Dual-Purpose Canisters R1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This study has evaluated the technical feasibility of direct disposal in a geologic repository, of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) of existing designs.  The...

  14. Preliminary Report on Dual-Purpose Canister Disposal Alternatives (FY13)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This report documents the first phase of a multi-year project to understand the technical feasibility and logistical implications of direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel in existing dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) and other types of storage casks.

  15. IC 42-104 - Appropriation (of Water) Must be for Beneficial Purpose...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    of water must be for beneficial purpose. Published NA Year Signed or Took Effect 1899 Legal Citation I.C. 42-104 DOI Not Provided Check for DOI availability: http:...

  16. Influence of store dimensions and auxiliary volume configuration on the performance of medium-sized solar combisystems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundh, Magdalena; Zass, Katrin; Wilhelms, Claudius; Vajen, Klaus; Jordan, Ulrike

    2010-07-15

    To increase the fractional energy savings achieved with solar thermal combisystems the store volume may be increased. Installation of large stores in single-family houses is, however, often limited by space constraints. In this article the influence of the store dimensions, as well as internal and external auxiliary volume configurations, are investigated for large solar water stores by annual dynamic TRNSYS simulations. The results show that store sizes up to 4 m{sup 3} may be used in solar heating systems with 30 m{sup 2} collector area. It is further shown that well-insulated stores are rather insensitive to the geometry. Stores deviating from the conventional dimensions still yield high fractional energy savings. Furthermore, the simulations show that the performance of an internal auxiliary volume configuration in most cases exceeds that of a solution with an external auxiliary unit. The practical limitations of very thin auxiliary volumes must, however, be further investigated. (author)

  17. Predicting Pattern Tooling and Casting Dimensions for Investment Casting, Phase III

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sabau, Adrian S

    2008-04-01

    Efforts during Phase III focused mainly on the shell-alloy systems. A high melting point alloy, 17-4PH stainless steel, was considered. The experimental part of the program was conducted at ORNL and commercial foundries, where wax patterns were injected, molds were invested, and alloys were poured. Shell molds made of fused-silica and alumino-silicates were considered. A literature review was conducted on thermophysical and thermomechanical properties alumino-silicates. Material property data, which were not available from material suppliers, was obtained. For all the properties of 17-4PH stainless steel, the experimental data available in the literature did not cover the entire temperature range necessary for process simulation. Thus, some material properties were evaluated using ProCAST, based on CompuTherm database. A comparison between the predicted material property data and measured property data was made. It was found that most material properties were accurately predicted only over several temperature ranges. No experimental data for plastic modulus were found. Thus, several assumptions were made and ProCAST recommendations were followed in order to obtain a complete set of mechanical property data at high temperatures. Thermal expansion measurements for the 17-4PH alloy were conducted during heating and cooling. As a function of temperature, the thermal expansion for both the alloy and shell mold materials showed different evolution on heating and cooling. Numerical simulations were performed using ProCAST for the investment casting of 17-4PH stainless steel parts in fused silica molds using the thermal expansion obtained on heating and another one with thermal expansion obtained on cooling. Since the fused silica shells had the lowest thermal expansion properties in the industry, the dewaxing phase, including the coupling between wax-shell systems, was neglected. The shell mold was considered to be a pure elastic material. The alloy dimensions were

  18. A non-linear dimension reduction methodology for generating data-driven stochastic input models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2008-06-20

    Stochastic analysis of random heterogeneous media (polycrystalline materials, porous media, functionally graded materials) provides information of significance only if realistic input models of the topology and property variations are used. This paper proposes a framework to construct such input stochastic models for the topology and thermal diffusivity variations in heterogeneous media using a data-driven strategy. Given a set of microstructure realizations (input samples) generated from given statistical information about the medium topology, the framework constructs a reduced-order stochastic representation of the thermal diffusivity. This problem of constructing a low-dimensional stochastic representation of property variations is analogous to the problem of manifold learning and parametric fitting of hyper-surfaces encountered in image processing and psychology. Denote by M the set of microstructures that satisfy the given experimental statistics. A non-linear dimension reduction strategy is utilized to map M to a low-dimensional region, A. We first show that M is a compact manifold embedded in a high-dimensional input space R{sup n}. An isometric mapping F from M to a low-dimensional, compact, connected set A is contained in R{sup d}(d<

  19. Study of. lambda. parameters and crossover phenomena in SU(N) x SU(N) sigma models in two dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shigemitsu, J; Kogut, J B

    1981-01-01

    The spin system analogues of recent studies of the string tension and ..lambda.. parameters of SU(N) gauge theories in 4 dimensions are carried out for the SU(N) x SU(N) and O(N) models in 2 dimensions. The relations between the ..lambda.. parameters of both the Euclidean and Hamiltonian formulation of the lattice models and the ..lambda.. parameter of the continuum models are obtained. The one loop finite renormalization of the speed of light in the lattice Hamiltonian formulations of the O(N) and SU(N) x SU(N) models is calculated. Strong coupling calculations of the mass gaps of these spin models are done for all N and the constants of proportionality between the gap and the ..lambda.. parameter of the continuum models are obtained. These results are contrasted with similar calculations for the SU(N) gauge models in 3+1 dimensions. Identifying suitable coupling constants for discussing the N ..-->.. infinity limits, the numerical results suggest that the crossover from weak to strong coupling in the lattice O(N) models becomes less abrupt as N increases while the crossover for the SU(N) x SU(N) models becomes more abrupt. The crossover in SU(N) gauge theories also becomes more abrupt with increasing N, however, at an even greater rate than in the SU(N) x SU(N) spin models.

  20. Microstructure for ferroelastic transitions from strain pseudo-spin clock models in two and three dimensions: a mean field analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lookman, Turab; Vasseur, Romain

    2009-01-01

    We obtain the microstructure of ferroelastic transitions in two and three dimensions from the solution of their corresponding discrete pseudo-spin models. In two dimensions we consider two transitions each from the high symmetry square and triangle symmetries: square-to-rectangle (SR), square-to-oblique (SO), triangle-to-centered rectangle (TR) and triangle-to-oblique (TO). In three dimensions we study the corresponding spin model for the cubic to tetragonal transition. The Landau free energies for these transitions result in N+ I states clock models (Z{sub N}) with long range interactions and we derive mean-field self-consistency equations for the clock model Hamiltonians. The microstructures from the mean-field solutions of the models are very similar to those obtained from the original continuum models or Monte Carlo simulations on the spin models (in the SR case), illustrating that these discrete models capture the salient physics. The models, in the presence of disorder, provide the basis for the study of the strain glass phase observed in martensitic alloys.

  1. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  2. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  3. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  4. Source book for planning nuclear dual-purpose electric/distillation desalination plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reed, S.A.

    1981-02-01

    A source book on nuclear dual-purpose electric/distillation desalination plants was prepared to assist government and other planners in preparing broad evaluations of proposed applications of dual-purpose plants. The document is divided into five major sections. Section 1 presents general discussions relating to the benefits of dual-purpose plants, and spectrum for water-to-power ratios. Section 2 presents information on commercial nuclear plants manufactured by US manufacturers. Section 3 gives information on distillation desalting processes and equipment. Section 4 presents a discussion on feedwater pretreatment and scale control. Section 5 deals with methods for coupling the distillation and electrical generating plants to operate in the dual mode.

  5. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  6. Fact #616: March 29, 2010 Household Vehicle-Miles of Travel by Trip Purpose

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    | Department of Energy 6: March 29, 2010 Household Vehicle-Miles of Travel by Trip Purpose Fact #616: March 29, 2010 Household Vehicle-Miles of Travel by Trip Purpose In 2009, getting to and from work accounted for about 27% of household vehicle-miles of travel (VMT). Work-related business was 8.4% of VMT in 2001, but declined to 6.7% in 2009, possibly due to advancements in computing technology making it possible for more business to be handled electronically. VMT for shopping was almost

  7. Initial Assessment of U.S. Refineries for Purposes of Potential Bio-Based

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Oil Insertions (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Initial Assessment of U.S. Refineries for Purposes of Potential Bio-Based Oil Insertions Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Initial Assessment of U.S. Refineries for Purposes of Potential Bio-Based Oil Insertions In order to meet U.S. biofuel objectives over the coming decade the conversion of a broad range of biomass feedstocks, using diverse processing options, will be required. Further, the production of both gasoline and diesel

  8. Using Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Trichloroethylene Concentrations at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kopp, Joshua D

    2007-05-01

    To determine the future extent of the TCE contamination plume at PGDP, a groundwater and solute transport model has been developed by the Department of Energy (DOE). The model used to perform these calculations is MODFLOWT which is an enhanced groundwater transport model developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). MODFLOWT models groundwater movement as well as the transport of species that are subject to adsorption and decay by using a finite difference method (Duffield et al 2001). A significant limitation of MODFLOWT is that it requires large amounts of data. This data can be difficult and expensive to obtain. MODFLOWT also requires excessive computational time to perform one simulation. It is desirable to have a model that can predict the spatial extent of the contaminant plume without as much required data and that does not require excessive computational times. The purpose of this study is to develop and alternative model to MODFLOWT that can produce similar results for possible use in a companion management model. The alternative model used in this study is an artificial neural network (ANN).

  9. Energy spectra and wave function of trigonometric Rosen-Morse potential as an effective quantum chromodynamics potential in D-dimensions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deta, U. A.; Suparmi,; Cari,; Husein, A. S.; Yuliani, H.; Khaled, I. K. A.; Luqman, H.; Supriyanto

    2014-09-30

    The Energy Spectra and Wave Function of Schrodinger equation in D-Dimensions for trigonometric Rosen-Morse potential were investigated analytically using Nikiforov-Uvarov method. This potential captures the essential traits of the quark-gluon dynamics of Quantum Chromodynamics. The approximate energy spectra are given in the close form and the corresponding approximate wave function for arbitrary l-state (l ? 0) in D-dimensions are formulated in the form of differential polynomials. The wave function of this potential unnormalizable for general case. The wave function of this potential unnormalizable for general case. The existence of extra dimensions (centrifugal factor) and this potential increase the energy spectra of system.

  10. Beginning of Construction for Purposes of the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit and Energy Investment Tax Credit

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Beginning of Construction for Purposes of the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit and Energy Investment Tax Credit

  11. Estimate of the allowable dimensions of diagnosed defects in category III and IV welded pipeline joints{sup 1}

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grin', E. A.; Bochkarev, V. I.

    2013-01-15

    An approach for estimating the permissible dimensions of technological defects in butt welded joints in category III and IV pipelines is described. The allowable size of a welding defect is determined from the condition of compliance with the specifications on strength for a reference cross section (damaged joint) of the pipeline taking into account its weakening by a given defect.With regard to the fairly widespread discovery of technological defects in butt welded joints during diagnostics of auxiliary pipelines for thermal electric power plants, the proposed approach can be used in practice by repair and consulting organizations.

  12. Large-dimension, high-ZT Thermoelectric Nanocomposites for High-Power High-efficiency Waste Heat Recovery for Electricity Generation

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Large-dimension, high-ZT BiTe and Pb-based nanocomposites produced with a low-cost scalable process were used for development and testing of TE module prototypes, and demonstration of a waste heat recovery system

  13. Measurement of groove features and dimensions of the vertical test cathode and the choke joint of the superconducting electron gun cavity of the Energy Recovery LINAC

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hammons, L.; Ke, M.

    2011-10-13

    vertical test cathode, the geometry of these grooves was altered, presenting the possibility that multipacting may, in fact, be occurring in this area and contributing to the low gradients that have been observed in the fine-grain cavity. Therefore, the Survey and Alignment group in C-AD engaged in measurements of the cavity joint, shown in Figure 2 and the cathode weldment, shown in Figure 3 for the purpose of characterizing the grooves in both the cavity and the vertical test cathode and comparing the dimensions of the cathode with those of the prints supplied by Advanced Energy Systems (AES), the original designer and manufacturer of both the test cathode and the electron gun cavity, in preparation to have a new one manufactured. The goal was to ensure that the articles as built matched the design prints in preparation for manufacturing a new vertical test cathode. This report describes the data collected by the Survey group in these efforts. The endeavor was challenging for the group given the millimeter-scale dimensions of the grooves and the requirement for high precision.

  14. Multi-Purpose, Application-Centric, Scalable I/O Proxy Application

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2015-06-15

    MACSio is a Multi-purpose, Application-Centric, Scalable I/O proxy application. It is designed to support a number of goals with respect to parallel I/O performance testing and benchmarking including the ability to test and compare various I/O libraries and I/O paradigms, to predict scalable performance of real applications and to help identify where improvements in I/O performance can be made within the HPC I/O software stack.

  15. Table 1.5 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    5 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002;" " Level: National Data; " " Row: Energy Sources and Shipments, including Further Classification of 'Other' Energy Sources;" " Column: First Use per Energy Sources and Shipments;" " Unit: Trillion Btu." " "," "," " " "," ","RSE" ,"Total","Row" "Energy Source","First

  16. Table 1.5 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010;

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    .5 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010; Level: National Data; Row: Energy Sources and Shipments, including Further Classification of 'Other' Energy Sources; Column: First Use per Energy Sources and Shipments; Unit: Trillion Btu. Total Energy Source First Use Total United States Coal 1,328 Natural Gas 5,725 Net Electricity 2,437 Purchases 2,510 Transfers In 33 Onsite Generation from Noncombustible Renewable Energy 7 Sales and Transfers Offsite 113 Coke and Breeze 374

  17. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  18. Developing and bounding ice particle mass- and area-dimension expressions for use in atmospheric models and remote sensing

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Erfani, Ehsan; Mitchell, David L.

    2016-04-07

    Here, ice particle mass- and projected area-dimension (m-D and A-D) power laws are commonly used in the treatment of ice cloud microphysical and optical properties and the remote sensing of ice cloud properties. Although there has long been evidence that a single m-D or A-D power law is often not valid over all ice particle sizes, few studies have addressed this fact. This study develops self-consistent m-D and A-D expressions that are not power laws but can easily be reduced to power laws for the ice particle size (maximum dimension or D) range of interest, and they are valid overmore » a much larger D range than power laws. This was done by combining ground measurements of individual ice particle m and D formed at temperature T < –20 °C during a cloud seeding field campaign with 2-D stereo (2D-S) and cloud particle imager (CPI) probe measurements of D and A, and estimates of m, in synoptic and anvil ice clouds at similar temperatures. The resulting m-D and A-D expressions are functions of temperature and cloud type (synoptic vs. anvil), and are in good agreement with m-D power laws developed from recent field studies considering the same temperature range (–60 °C < T < –20 °C).« less

  19. Trigonometrical sums connected with the chiral Potts model, Verlinde dimension formula, two-dimensional resistor network, and number theory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chair, Noureddine

    2014-02-15

    We have recently developed methods for obtaining exact two-point resistance of the complete graph minus N edges. We use these methods to obtain closed formulas of certain trigonometrical sums that arise in connection with one-dimensional lattice, in proving Scotts conjecture on permanent of Cauchy matrix, and in the perturbative chiral Potts model. The generalized trigonometrical sums of the chiral Potts model are shown to satisfy recursion formulas that are transparent and direct, and differ from those of Gervois and Mehta. By making a change of variables in these recursion formulas, the dimension of the space of conformal blocks of SU(2) and SO(3) WZW models may be computed recursively. Our methods are then extended to compute the corner-to-corner resistance, and the Kirchhoff index of the first non-trivial two-dimensional resistor network, 2N. Finally, we obtain new closed formulas for variant of trigonometrical sums, some of which appear in connection with number theory. -- Highlights: Alternative derivation of certain trigonometrical sums of the chiral Potts model are given. Generalization of these trigonometrical sums satisfy recursion formulas. The dimension of the space of conformal blocks may be computed from these recursions. Exact corner-to-corner resistance, the Kirchhoff index of 2N are given.

  20. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  1. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  2. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  3. Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

    2016-01-01

    A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

  4. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  5. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  6. Table 2.2 Manufacturing Energy Consumption for All Purposes, 2006 (Trillion Btu )

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Manufacturing Energy Consumption for All Purposes, 2006 (Trillion Btu ) NAICS 1 Code Manufacturing Group Coal Coal Coke and Breeze 2 Natural Gas Distillate Fuel Oil LPG 3 and NGL 4 Residual Fuel Oil Net Electricity 5 Other 6 Shipments of Energy Sources 7 Total 8 311 Food 147 1 638 16 3 26 251 105 (s) 1,186 312 Beverage and Tobacco Products 20 0 41 1 1 3 30 11 -0 107 313 Textile Mills 32 0 65 (s) (s) 2 66 12 -0 178 314 Textile Product Mills 3 0 46 (s) 1 Q 20 (s) -0 72 315 Apparel 0 0 7 (s) (s)

  7. The Multi-Purpose Detector for NICA heavy-Ion Collider at JINR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogachevsky, O. V.

    2012-05-15

    The Multi-Purpose Detector (MPD) is designed to study heavy-ion collisions at the Nuclotron-based heavy Ion Collider fAcility (NICA) at JINR, Dubna. Its main components located inside a superconducting solenoid are a tracking system composed of a silicon microstrip vertex detector followed by a large volume time-projection chamber, a time-of-flight system for particle identification and a barrel electromagnetic calorimeter. A zero degree hadron calorimeter is designed specifically to measure the energy of spectators. In this paper, all parts of the apparatus are described and their tracking and particle identification parameters are discussed in some detail.

  8. Table A30. Total Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Value of

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    0. Total Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Value of" "Shipment Categories, Industry Group, and Selected Industries, 1991" " (Estimates in Trillion Btu)" ,,,," Value of Shipments and Receipts(b)" ,,,," ","(million dollars)" ,,,"-","-","-","-","-","-","RSE" "SIC"," "," "," "," "," ","

  9. Table A33. Total Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Employment

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Employment" " Size Categories, Industry Group, and Selected Industries, 1991 (Continued)" " (Estimates in Trillion Btu)" ,,,,,"Employment Size" ,,,"-","-","-","-","-","-","RSE" "SIC"," "," "," "," "," "," ",,500,"Row" "Code(a)","Industry Groups and

  10. Table A9. Total Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Census

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    A9. Total Primary Consumption of Energy for All Purposes by Census" " Region and Economic Characteristics of the Establishment, 1991" " (Estimates in Btu or Physical Units)" ,,,,,,,,"Coke" " "," ","Net","Residual","Distillate","Natural Gas(d)"," ","Coal","and Breeze"," ","RSE" " ","Total","Electricity(b)","Fuel

  11. Table E1.1. First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 1998

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    .1. First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 1998;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources and Shipments;" " Unit: Trillion Btu." " "," "," "," "," "," "," "," "," "," ",," " " "," ",," "," ",," ","

  12. Table 1.1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010;

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010; Level: National and Regional Data; Row: NAICS Codes; Column: Energy Sources and Shipments; Unit: Physical Units or Btu. Coke and Shipments Net Residual Distillate Natural Gas(e) LPG and Coal Breeze of Energy Sources NAICS Total(b) Electricity(c) Fuel Oil Fuel Oil(d) (billion NGL(f) (million (million Other(g) Produced Onsite(h) Code(a) Subsector and Industry (trillion Btu) (million kWh) (million bbl) (million bbl) cu ft) (million

  13. Table 1.2 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010; Level: National and Regional Data; Row: NAICS Codes; Column: Energy Sources and Shipments; Unit: Trillion Btu. Shipments NAICS Net Residual Distillate LPG and Coke and of Energy Sources Code(a) Subsector and Industry Total(b) Electricity(c) Fuel Oil Fuel Oil(d) Natural Gas(e) NGL(f) Coal Breeze Other(g) Produced Onsite(h) Total United States 311 Food 1,162 257 12 23 583 8 182 2 96 * 3112 Grain and Oilseed Milling 355 56 * 1 123 Q

  14. Table 1.3 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002;" " Level: National and Regional Data; " " Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes;" " Column: Energy Sources and Shipments;" " Unit: Trillion Btu." " "," "," "," "," "," "," "," "," "," ",," " " "," ",," "," ",," ","

  15. Table 1.3 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010;

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1.3 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010; Level: National and Regional Data; Row: Values of Shipments and Employment Sizes; Column: Energy Sources and Shipments; Unit: Trillion Btu. Shipments Economic Net Residual Distillate LPG and Coke and of Energy Sources Characteristic(a) Total(b) Electricity(c) Fuel Oil Fuel Oil(d) Natural Gas(e) NGL(f) Coal Breeze Other(g) Produced Onsite(h) Total United States Value of Shipments and Receipts (million dollars) Under 20 1,169 314 6

  16. A strict test of stellar evolution models: The absolute dimensions of the massive benchmark eclipsing binary V578 Mon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garcia, E. V.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pavlovski, K.; Hensberge, H.; Chew, Y. Gmez Maqueo; Claret, A.

    2014-09-01

    We determine the absolute dimensions of the eclipsing binary V578 Mon, a detached system of two early B-type stars (B0V + B1V, P = 2.40848 days) in the star-forming region NGC 2244 of the Rosette Nebula. From the light curve analysis of 40 yr of photometry and the analysis of HERMES spectra, we find radii of 5.41 0.04 R{sub ?} and 4.29 0.05 R{sub ?}, and temperatures of 30,000 500 K and 25,750 435 K, respectively. We find that our disentangled component spectra for V578 Mon agree well with previous spectral disentangling from the literature. We also reconfirm the previous spectroscopic orbit of V578 Mon finding that masses of 14.54 0.08 M{sub ?} and 10.29 0.06 M{sub ?} are fully compatible with the new analysis. We compare the absolute dimensions to the rotating models of the Geneva and Utrecht groups and the models of the Granada group. We find that all three sets of models marginally reproduce the absolute dimensions of both stars with a common age within the uncertainty for gravity-effective temperature isochrones. However, there are some apparent age discrepancies for the corresponding mass-radius isochrones. Models with larger convective overshoot, >0.35, worked best. Combined with our previously determined apsidal motion of 0.07089{sub ?0.00013}{sup +0.00021} deg cycle{sup 1}, we compute the internal structure constants (tidal Love number) for the Newtonian and general relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion as log k {sub 2} = 1.975 0.017 and log k {sub 2} = 3.412 0.018, respectively. We find the relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion to be small, <4%. We find that the prediction of log k {sub 2,theo} = 2.005 0.025 of the Granada models fully agrees with our observed log k {sub 2}.

  17. Analytical Formulation for Sizing and Estimating the Dimensions and Weight of Wind Turbine Hub and Drivetrain Components

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; King, R.; Dykes, K.; Veers, P.

    2015-06-09

    This report summarizes the theory, verification, and validation of a new sizing tool for wind turbine drivetrain components, the Drivetrain Systems Engineering (DriveSE) tool. DriveSE calculates the dimensions and mass properties of the hub, main shaft, main bearing(s), gearbox, bedplate, transformer if up-tower, and yaw system. The level of fi¬ delity for each component varies depending on whether semiempirical parametric or physics-based models are used. The physics-based models have internal iteration schemes based on system constraints and design criteria. Every model is validated against available industry data or finite-element analysis. The verification and validation results show that the models reasonably capture primary drivers for the sizing and design of major drivetrain components.

  18. Generation of high-amplitude soliton waves in crystalline materials of different dimensions under high radiative, dynamic, and temperature loads

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dubovsky, O. A. Orlov, A. V.

    2011-12-15

    It is shown that beams of high-amplitude supersonic breather solitons, phonons, and subsonic excitations of new type (torsions) are generated in crystalline materials of different dimensions under high radiative and dynamic loads near the stability threshold. The dispersion dependences of solitons and phonons in 1D crystals are presented. It is shown that, in 2D crystals beams consisting of six or two (depending on the bombarding particle direction), breather solitons are generated and propagate in certain crystallographic directions. The masses of soliton excitations as particles (coupled complexes of massless phonons) have been determined. It is shown that the subsonic soliton waves of a new type with torsion atomic vibrations are generated in 3D nanotubes, along with supersonic soliton waves of longitudinal vibrations.

  19. A Built for Purpose Micro-Hole Coiled Tubing Rig (MCTR)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bart Patton

    2007-09-30

    This report will serve as the final report on the work performed from the contract period October 2005 thru April 2007. The project 'A Built for Purpose Microhole Coiled Tubing Rig (MCTR)' purpose was to upgrade an existing state-of-the-art Coiled Tubing Drilling Rig to a Microhole Coiled Tubing Rig (MCTR) capable of meeting the specifications and tasks of the Department of Energy. The individual tasks outlined to meet the Department of Energy's specifications are: (1) Concept and development of lubricator and tool deployment system; (2) Concept and development of process control and data acquisition; (3) Concept and development of safety and efficiency improvements; and (4) Final unit integration and testing. The end result of the MCTR upgrade has produced a unit capable of meeting the following requirements: (1) Capable of handling 1-inch through 2-3/8-inch coiled tubing (Currently dressed for 2-3/8-inch coiled tubing and capable of running up to 3-1/2-inch coiled tubing); (2) Capable of drilling and casing surface, intermediate, production and liner hole intervals; (3) Capable of drilling with coiled tubing and has all controls and installation piping for a top drive; (4) Rig is capable of running 7-5/8-inch range 2 casing; and (5) Capable of drilling 5,000 ft true vertical depth (TVD) and 6,000 ft true measured depth (TMD).

  20. Report on subcontract from Lawrence Livermore National Lab, "Development of Large-Dimension Configuration-Interaction Shell-Model Code"

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, C W

    2012-01-24

    The project period was devoted to several developments in the technical capabilities of the BIGSTIC large-dimension configuration-interaction shell-model code, written in Fortran 90. The specific computational goals for the project period were: (1) store Lanczos vectors on core in RAM to minimize I/O; (2) rewrite reorthogonalization with Lanczos vectors stored in core, consult with personnel at LLNL, LBL, ORNL, Iowa State University to maximize performance; (3) restrict creation of N-body jumps to those needed by an individual node; and (4) distribute 3-body interaction over many cores. Significant progress was made towards these goals, especially (1) and (2), although in the process they discovered intermediate tasks that had to be accomplished first. The achievements were as follows - I put into place structures and algorithms to facility fragmenting very large-dimension Lanczos intermediate vectors. Only by fragmenting the vectors can we carry out (1) and (2). In addition, I reorganized the action of the Hamiltonian matrix and created a new division of operations for MPI. Based upon earlier work, I made plans of a revised algorithm for distribution of work with MPI, with a particular eye towards breaking up the Lanczos vectors. I introduce a new derived type (opbundles) which collects the parameters for the Hamiltonian, and rewrote the application routines to use it. It has been validated and verified. I made progress towards revised MPI parallelization. Using the opbundles, I was able to compute a distribution of work over compute nodes, which should be very efficient. This new distribution is easier to derive and more efficient, in principle, than the old distribution. Furthermore, it should make applications with fragmented Lanczos vectors easier. Implementation is still in progress.