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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

3

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

4

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

5

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

6

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

7

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes (Germany, France) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme Value Theory (EVT) (4) Application of EVT to Verification (5) Frost

Katz, Richard

8

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study on Extremes · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

9

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 FORECAST VERIFICATION OF EXTREMES: USE OF EXTREME VALUE THEORY Rick Katz Institute for Study ON EXTREMES · Emil Gumbel (1891 ­ 1966) -- Pioneer in application of statistics of extremes "Il est impossible que l'improbable n'arrive jamais." #12;3 OUTLINE (1) Motivation (2) Conventional Methods (3) Extreme

Katz, Richard

10

Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

14

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

15

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

16

Future Sustainability Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Theory and an Application  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Future Sustainability Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Theory and an Application ... For example, there are often subtle but persistent price signals embedded in long-term investment decisions and stock price fluctuations. ...

Nataliya Malyshkina; Deb Niemeier

2010-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

17

Quantile Forecasting of Commodity Futures' Returns: Are Implied Volatility Factors Informative?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study develops a multi-period log-return quantile forecasting procedure to evaluate the performance of eleven nearby commodity futures contracts (NCFC) using a sample of 897 daily price observations and at-the-money (ATM) put and call implied...

Dorta, Miguel

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

18

Application of neural networking in live cattle futures market: an approach to price-forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Ju Chou, B. S. , Tunghai University, Taiwan Chair of Advisory Committee Dr. John P. Walter The ability to forecast closing price changes using neural networking technique in the live cattle futures market was investigated. Futures prices and contract... volumes from 1977 through 1991 were obtained for four commodities: live cattle, feeder cattle, live hogs and corn. Twelve neural networks were constructed, one for each combination of six contract months and two uading periods. The two trading periods...

Chou, Chien-Ju

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

19

China's Present Situation of Coal Consumption and Future Coal Demand Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article analyzes China's coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material, and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries, which account for 85% of total coal consumption in 2005. Considering energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes, etc., this article makes a forecast of 2010s and 2020s domestic coal demand in these four industries. In addition, considering such relevant factors as our country's future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demands, using per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution's results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 26202850 million tons and in 2020 might be 30903490 million tons, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.

Wang Yan; Li Jingwen

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Bayesian forecasting of demand time-series data with zero values  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper describes the development of a Bayesian procedure to analyse and forecast positive demand time-series data with a proportion of zero values and a high level of variability for the non-zero data. The resulting forecasts play decisive roles in organisational planning, budgeting, and performance monitoring. Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. However, they can be unsuitable for the analysis of non-negative demand time-series data with the aforementioned features. In this paper, an unconstrained latent demand underlying the observed demand is introduced into the linear heteroscedastic model associated with the Holt-Winters model. Accurate forecasts for the observed demand can readily be derived from those obtained with exponential smoothing for the latent demand. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated using a simulation study and two real time-series datasets which correspond to tourism demand and book sales. [Received 4 November 2010; Revised 7 September 2011, 10 April 2012; Accepted 10 May 2012

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Weather satellites and the economic value of forecasts: evidence from the electric power industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather information routinely assists in managing resources more efficiently and reducing industrial operating costs. The electric energy industry in particular makes extensive use of weather information supplied by both government and commercial suppliers. Through direct purchases of weather data and information, and through participating in the increasing market for weather derivatives, this sector provides measurable indicators of the economic importance of weather information. Space weather in the form of magnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections from the sun creates geomagnetically induced currents that disturb the electric power grid, sometimes causing significant economic impacts on electric power distribution. This paper examines the use of space-derived weather information on the U.S. electric power industry. It also explores issues that may impair the most optimum use of the information and reviews the longer-term opportunities for employing weather data acquired from satellites in future commercial and government activity.

Henry R. Hertzfeld; Ray A. Williamson; Avery Sen

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Holts exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holts exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holts method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.

Andr Luis Santiago Maia; Francisco de A.T. de Carvalho

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study employs a flexible regime-switching EGARCH model with Student-t distributed error terms to investigate whether volatility regimes and basis affect the behavior of crude oil futures returns, including the conditional mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis as well as the extent of heavy-tailedness. The study also examines whether volatility regimes and asymmetric basis effects can improve the forecasting accuracy. The main merit of the empirical model is that the basis effect is allowed to be asymmetric and to vary across volatility regimes. Empirical results suggest that the conditional mean and variance respond to the basis asymmetrically and nonlinearly, and that the responses of transition probabilities to the basis are symmetric. Furthermore, the conditional higher moments are sensitive to the absolute value of basis, and the heavy tailed characteristic can be greatly alleviated by taking into account the asymmetric basis effects and regime switches. Finally, the regime switches and asymmetric basis effects play decisive roles in forecasting return, volatility and tail distribution.

Kuang-Liang Chang

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.

Fievet, Lucas; Cauwels, Peter; Sornette, Didier

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Developing Louisiana's Forest Products Industry: Adding Value for the Future  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of a manufacturingThe increased value at each stage of a manufacturing assembly processassembly process Those and necessaryimportant and necessary Addition of net economic valueAddition of net economic value Value can be added through manufacturing orValue can be added through manufacturing or marketingmarketing Why Add Value

26

4 - Future industrial coal utilization: forecasts and emerging technological and regulatory issues  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract: Coal production and utilization will grow substantially in the future. This chapter starts by describing coal production and consumption, with a focus on future trends. A discussion of major technology and regulatory issues for coal-fired power plants and the production of metallurgical coal then follows.

J.K. Alderman

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price: interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Daily Standard & Poor's 500 stock index cash and futures prices are studies in a cointegration framework using Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. To account for the time varying relationship(basis) between the two markets, a theoretical...

Fritsch, Roger Erwin

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Future scenarios and trends in energy generation in brazil: supply and demand and mitigation forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The structure of the Brazilian energy matrix defines Brazil as a global leader in power generation from renewable sources. In 2011, the share of renewable sources in electricity production reached 88.8%, mainly due to the large national water potential. Although the Brazilian energy model presents a strong potential for expansion, the total energy that could be used with most current renewable technologies often outweighs the national demand. The current composition of the national energy matrix has outstanding participation of hydropower, even though the country has great potential for the exploitation of other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biomass. This document therefore refers to the trend of evolution of the Brazilian Energy Matrix and exposes possible mitigation scenarios, also considering climate change. The methodology to be used in the modeling includes the implementation of the LEAP System (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) program, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute, which allows us to propose different scenarios under the definition of socioeconomic scenarios and base power developed in the context of the REGSA project (Promoting Renewable Electricity Generation in South America). Results envision future scenarios and trends in power generation in Brazil, and the projected demand and supply of electricity for up to 2030.

Jos Baltazar Salgueirinho Osrio De Andrade Guerra; Luciano Dutra; Norma Beatriz Camiso Schwinden; Suely Ferraz de Andrade

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one models outperformance of another.

Rafa? Weron

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

32

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

33

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we first make a review of the past annual production of electricity and the cumulative installed capacity for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. This together with the annual costs of PV modules and CSP systems allows us the determination of the experience curves and the corresponding learning rates. Then, we go over a rigorous exposition of the methodology employed for the calculation of the value of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for PV and CSP. Based on this knowledge, we proceed to establish a mathematical model which yields closed-form analytical expressions for the present value of the LCOE, as well as its future evolution (20102050) based on the International Energy Agency roadmaps for the cumulative installed capacity. Next, we explain in detail how specific values are assigned to the twelve independent variables which enter the LCOE formula: solar resource, discount and learning rates, initial cost and lifetime of the system, operational and maintenance costs, etc. With all this background, and making use of a simple computer simulation program, we can generate the following: sensitivity analysis curves, graphs on the evolution of the LCOE in the period 20102050, and calculations of the years at which grid parities will be reached. These representations prove to be very useful in energy planning policies, like tariff-in schemes, tax exemptions, etc., and in making investment decisions, since they allow, for a given location, to directly compare the costs of PV vs CSP power generation technologies for the period 20102050. Among solar technologies, PV seems always more appropriate for areas located in middle to high latitudes of the Earth, while CSP systems, preferably with thermal storage incorporated, yield their best performance in arid areas located at relatively low latitudes.

J. Hernndez-Moro; J.M. Martnez-Duart

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

36

A study of Shanghai fuel oil futures price volatility based on high frequency data: Long-range dependence, modeling and forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In existing researches, the investigations of oil price volatility are always performed based on daily data and squared daily return is always taken as the proxy of actual volatility. However, it is widely accepted that the popular realized volatility (RV) based on high frequency data is a more robust measure of actual volatility than squared return. Due to this motivation, we investigate dynamics of daily volatility of Shanghai fuel oil futures prices employing 5-minute high frequency data. First, using a nonparametric method, we find that RV displays strong long-range dependence and recent financial crisis can cause a lower degree of long-range dependence. Second, we model daily volatility using RV models and GARCH-class models. Our results indicate that RV models for intraday data overwhelmingly outperform GARCH-class models for daily data in forecasting fuel oil price volatility, regardless the proxy of actual volatility. Finally, we investigate the major source of such volatile prices and found that trader activity has major contribution to fierce variations of fuel oil prices.

Li Liu; Jieqiu Wan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

38

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

39

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Ual Sar?; Basar ztaysi

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

42

"Education for Sustainable Development allows every human being to acquire the knowl-edge, skills, attitudes and values necessary to shape a sustainable future"  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AGENDA SCHEDULE E S D "Education for Sustainable Development allows every human being to acquire Urbanisation UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development http the knowl- edge, skills, attitudes and values necessary to shape a sustainable future" Biodiversity

Tanaka, Jiro

43

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

none,

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Future-oriented women will pay to reduce global warming: Mediation via political orientation, environmental values, and belief in global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The present work addresses calls to clarify the role of gender in climate change mitigation and adaptation by testing a theoretical model linking gender and concern with future and immediate consequences to mitigation actions through political orientation, environmental values, and belief in global warming (genderנtime orientation?liberal political orientation?environmental values?belief in global warming?willingness to pay to reduce global warming). Drawing on a sample of 299 U.S. residents, structural equation modeling and bootstrapped indirect effects testing revealed support for the model. Interaction analyses further revealed that women scored higher than men on model variables among respondents who routinely consider the future consequences of their actions, but the gender difference was reversed among those low in concern with future consequences (on liberal political orientation and willingness to pay to reduce global warming). Practical and theoretical implications are considered.

Jeff Joireman; Richie L. Liu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

46

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

The Value of Energy Performance and Green Attributes in Buildings: A Review of Existing Literature and Recommendations for Future Research  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

quantify the value of green and energy efficiency upgradesofhomeswithBuildGreen,ENERGYSTARorLEEDforHomesmajor renovations, and energy or green upgrade projects.

Stuart, Elizabeth

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

49

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

50

The Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American Meteorological Society...

51

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

52

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

54

Evaluation of artificial neural networks as a model for forecasting consumption of wood products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In specific sciences, such as forest policy, the need for anticipation becomes more urgent because it has to manage valuable natural resources whose protection and sustainable management is rendered essential. In this paper, a modern method has been used, known as artificial neural networks (ANNs). In order to forecast the necessary future volumes of timber in Greece, a neural network has been developed and trained, using a variety of time series derived from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (concerning Greece) as external values and as internal value the Consumer Price Index has been used. Comparing the results of this project with linear and non-linear econometric forecasting models, it has been found that neural networks correspond, as confirmed by the econometric indicators MAPE (average absolute percentage error) and RMSE (the square root of the percentage by the average sum of squares differences).

Giorgos Tigas; Panagiotis Lefakis; Konstantinos Ioannou; Athanasios Hasekioglou

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (SyntetosBoylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very robust behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled On the categorisation of demand patterns published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

The Value of Energy Performance and Green Attributes in Buildings: A Review of Existing Literature and Recommendations for Future Research  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Labels, certifications, and rating systems for energy efficiency performance and green attributes of buildings have been available in the U.S. for over 10 years, and used extensively in the European Union and Australia for longer. Such certifications and ratings can make energy efficiency more visible, and could help spur demand for energy efficiency if these designations are shown to have a positive impact on sales or rental prices. This policy brief discusses the findings and methodologies from recent studies on this topic, and suggests recommendations for future research. Although there have been just a handful of studies within the last 10 years that have investigated these effects, a few key findings emerge: To maximize sales price impact, label or rating information must be disclosed early and visibly in the sales process; The approach to evaluating energy efficiency labels (e.g., ENERGY STAR) and general green certifications (e.g., LEED or GreenPoint Rated) may need to be different, depending on the type, vintage and market penetration of the label; Collaborative efforts to promote label adoption and build a large dataset of labeled buildings will be required to produce reliable study results.

Stuart, Elizabeth

2011-09-07T23:59:59.000Z

57

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

58

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

63

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

64

Negotiating future climates for public policy: a critical assessment of the development of  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) or of seasonal forecasting (a few months): Earth system models aim to simulate future climatic evolution over

Hulme, Mike

65

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

66

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

67

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Market penetration: How to predict the future  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the biggest challenges in evaluating energy efficiency programs if predicting how customers will react to future changes in incentives and technology. This is especially true within a competitive energy market. This paper presents a market penetration model based on states preference experiments that is designed to address this issue. This model can be used to predict customer purchases under alternative market conditions such as changes in technology, program rebates, and program qualifying equipment. The states preference experiments elicit ratings from residential customers on program and equipment attributes such as price, rebate, and annual energy savings. The data were collected and the model estimated using information from Florida Power and Light's Residential HVAC Program. Once the data are gathered, a logic model is estimated to determine the probability that each program and equipment option is chosen. The model is calibrated to actual customer purchases and then used to predict future equipment purchases and program participation. When values for very high efficiency equipment are included in the experiment, the model can be used to forecast future purchases even when purchases of these units are not currently widespread. This market penetration model provides a method to forecast equipment purchases, while taking into account future changes in technology, and, as a result, will be valuable to any utility seeking to continue energy efficiency programs in a competitive market.

Grover, S.; Ikenze-Bates, I.

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

71

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiatives efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rnyi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

73

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

74

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

75

Comparison of Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and AVITAS market forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasts of future world demand for commercial aircraft are published fairly regularly by Airbus and Boeing. Other players in the aviation business, Rolls Royce and AVITAS, have also published forecasts in the past year. This article analyses and compares the methods used and assumptions made by the several forecasters. It concludes that there are wide areas of similarity in the approaches used and highlights the most significant area of divergence.

Ralph Anker

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

77

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

78

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Oil prices Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMAGARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion.

Nigel Meade

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand ........................................................................ 28 Possible Future Trends for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles .............................................................. 23 Electricity Demand Growth in the West

83

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

84

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

85

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

86

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles

Imperial College, London

87

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements.

88

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the publics preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

91

Clean Energy Program Policy Brief. The Value of Energy Performance and Green Attributes in Buildings: Review of Existing Literature and Recommendations for Future Research.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

quantify the value of green and energy efficiency upgradesofhomeswithBuildGreen,ENERGYSTARorLEEDforHomesmajor renovations, and energy or green upgrade projects.

Stuart, Elizabeth

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Future Climate Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative approaches could include simulation of climate over the 10,000-year period; however, this modeling extrapolation is well beyond the bounds of current scientific practice and would not provide results with better confidence. A corroborative alternative approach may be found in ''Future Climate Analysis-10,000 Years to 1,000,000 Years After Present'' (Sharpe 2003 [DIRS 161591]). The current revision of this report is prepared in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654]).

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03T23:59:59.000Z

95

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

96

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

97

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

99

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

100

Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods an...

Baran, Sndor

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

103

Future Climate Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B, Section 4.1).

James Houseworth

2001-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

104

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

105

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

106

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

108

Study on technology of electromagnetic radiation of sensitive index to forecast the coal and gas hazards  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Hazard forecast of coal and gas outburst was an important step of comprehensive outburst-prevention measures. Aiming at the manifestation of disaster threatens such as the gas outburst to mine safety, this paper explained the forecasting principles of electromagnetic radiation to coal and gas outburst, by the electromagnetic radiation theory of coal rock damage; it studied the characteristics and rules of electromagnetic radiation during the deformation and fracture process of loaded coal rocks, and confirmed forecast sensitive indexes of electromagnetic radiation as well as its critical values by signals of electromagnetic radiation. By applying EMR monitoring technology in the field, outburst prediction and forecast tests to the characteristics of electromagnetic radiation during the driving process was taken, and figured out the hazard prediction values by using forecast methods of static and dynamic trend.

Yuliang Wu; Wen Li

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

110

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

112

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Application of Artificial Neural Network Forecasts to Predict Fog at Canberra International Airport  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The occurrence of fog can significantly impact air transport operations, and plays an important role in aviation safety. The economic value of aviation forecasts for Sydney Airport alone in 1993 was estimated at $6.8 million (Australian dollars) ...

Dustin Fabbian; Richard de Dear; Stephen Lellyett

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Real-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting JASPER A. VRUGT Earth values must be specified (Table 1). Corresponding author address: Jasper Vrugt, Earth and Envi- ronmental

Vrugt, Jasper A.

115

Extremal Dependence Indices: Improved Verification Measures for Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Binary Events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Verifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating measure for the ...

Christopher A. T. Ferro; David B. Stephenson

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

Stoffel, T.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Selling Hedge with Futures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

trades price risk for basis risk. Once more, the basis forecast is a key to hedging with futures. Did Bill receive $5.60 per bushel for his en- tire crop? The answer depends on the quantity produced. If he produced his historical average of 24...,000 bushels, he was protected at $5.60 per bushel for the 15,000 bushels he hedged and received a price at harvest of $5.40 per bushel for the unhedged 9,000 bushels. This yields a weight- ed average price of $5.525 per bushel. Had he produced more than...

Kastens, Terry L.; Welch, Mark

2009-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

118

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

119

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

120

The Economic Value of Temperature Forecasts in Electricity Generation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Every day, the U.S. electricity-generating industry decides how to meet the electricity demand anticipated over the next 24 h. Various generating units are available to meet the demand, and each unit may have its own production lead time, start-...

Thomas J. Teisberg; Rodney F. Weiher; Alireza Khotanzad

2005-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

123

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

The future of oil: Geology versus technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We discuss and reconcile the geological and economic/technological views concerning the future of world oil production and prices, and present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out-of-sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade, though the error bands are wide, reflecting sharply differing judgments on the ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.

Jaromir Benes; Marcelle Chauvet; Ondra Kamenik; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula; Jack Selody

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

126

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

128

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

130

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

133

Real time forecasting of near-future evolution  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...evolving populations, each with a non-renewable supply of 96 beneficial mutations that...G. Callan, Jr, and M. Lassig 2008 Energy-dependent fitness: a quantitative model...Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA. pgerrish...

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

135

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

136

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

137

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

138

Forecasting Solar Wind Speeds  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

By explicitly taking into account effects of Alfven waves, I derive from a simple energetics argument a fundamental relation which predicts solar wind (SW) speeds in the vicinity of the earth from physical properties on the sun. Kojima et al. recently found from their observations that a ratio of surface magnetic field strength to an expansion factor of open magnetic flux tubes is a good indicator of the SW speed. I show by using the derived relation that this nice correlation is an evidence of the Alfven wave which accelerates SW in expanding flux tubes. The observations further require that fluctuation amplitudes of magnetic field lines at the surface should be almost universal in different coronal holes, which needs to be tested by future observations.

Takeru K. Suzuki

2006-02-03T23:59:59.000Z

139

Fire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over south-east Australia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

values were driven mainly by WRF errors in wind speed simulation. However, in both cases the qualityFire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over south-east Australia from 1985 to 2009 has been simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

Evans, Jason

140

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ocean indicators Current knowledge and future directions Brian Burke, NOAA Fisheries Brian.Burke@noaa.gov #12;· Review of ocean indicator work · Forecasting · Indicator gaps and the importance of mechanistic understanding · Plugging in to management #12;Haeseker et al. 2012 Ocean survival is low and variable #12;-10 -5

145

Value Engineering  

Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

To establish Department of Energy (DOE) value engineering policy that establishs and maintains cost-effective value procedures and processes.

2002-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

146

Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CONTINUOUS MODEL UPDATING AND FORECASTING FOR A NATURALLY FRACTURED RESERVOIR A Thesis by HISHAM HASSAN S. ALMOHAMMADI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... guidance and support throughout my time here in Texas A&M University. I also would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Eduardo Gildin and Dr. Michael Sherman, for providing valued insight and help during the course of this research. I am indebted...

Almohammadi, Hisham

2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

147

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 17-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong Minh.Ha.Duong@cmu.edu CNRS, France HDGC, Carnegie Mellon Possible global warming futures ­ p.1/36 #12;SRES: Forecasts or scenarios? +5.5 C in 2100 the controversy using imprecise probabilities, a more general information theory. . . Possible global warming

152

What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Soren T. Anderson  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices? Soren T. Anderson Michigan State University of consumers about their expectations of future gasoline prices. Overall, we find that consumer beliefs follow a random walk, which we deem a reasonable forecast of gasoline prices, but we find a deviation from

Silver, Whendee

153

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

154

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

155

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

156

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

157

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

158

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

159

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

160

Future Accelerators (?)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

John Womersley

2003-08-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

163

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

164

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

165

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

166

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

167

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

168

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Jos V. Segura

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

170

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

172

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

173

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Improved one day-ahead price forecasting using combined time series and artificial neural network models for the electricity market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The price forecasts embody crucial information for generators when planning bidding strategies to maximise profits. Therefore, generation companies need accurate price forecasting tools. Comparison of neural network and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast commodity prices in previous researches showed that the artificial neural network (ANN) forecasts were considerably more accurate than traditional ARIMA models. This paper provides an accurate and efficient tool for short-term price forecasting based on the combination of ANN and ARIMA. Firstly, input variables for ANN are determined by time series analysis. This model relates the current prices to the values of past prices. Secondly, ANN is used for one day-ahead price forecasting. A three-layered feed-forward neural network algorithm is used for forecasting next-day electricity prices. The ANN model is then trained and tested using data from electricity market of Iran. According to previous studies, in the case of neural networks and ARIMA models, historical demand data do not significantly improve predictions. The results show that the combined ANN??ARIMA forecasts prices with high accuracy for short-term periods. Also, it is shown that policy-making strategies would be enhanced due to increased precision and reliability.

Ali Azadeh; Seyed Farid Ghaderi; Behnaz Pourvalikhan Nokhandan; Shima Nassiri

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in AprilMay provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 23 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in AprilMay that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3tha?1 in June and 0.4tha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.50.6tha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 23 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Univariate time-series forecasting of monthly peak demand of electricity in northern India  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study forecasts the monthly peak demand of electricity in the northern region of India using univariate time-series techniques namely Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) and Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing (ES) for seasonally unadjusted monthly data spanning from April 2000 to February 2007. In-sample forecasting reveals that the MSARIMA model outperforms the ES model in terms of lower root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error criteria. It has been found that ARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 is the best fitted model to explain the monthly peak demand of electricity, which has been used to forecast the monthly peak demand of electricity in northern India, 15 months ahead from February 2007. This will help Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre to make necessary arrangements a priori to meet the future peak demand.

Sajal Ghosh

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily.

Zhongyue Su; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu; Ge Zhao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

182

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

183

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

187

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

188

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

189

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

190

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

191

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

193

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

195

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Generating Spatio-Temporal Descriptions in Pollen Forecasts Ross Turner, Somayajulu Sripada and Ehud Reiter  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Date AreaID Value 27/06/2005 1 (North) 6 27/06/2005 2 (North West) 5 27/06/2005 3 (Central) 5 27/06/2005 4Generating Spatio-Temporal Descriptions in Pollen Forecasts Ross Turner, Somayajulu Sripada al., 1994) and MultiMeteo (Coch, 1998). 2 Knowledge Acquisition Our knowledge acquisition activities

200

AN APPLICATION OF URBANSIM TO THE AUSTIN, TEXAS REGION: INTEGRATED-MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2030  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN APPLICATION OF URBANSIM TO THE AUSTIN, TEXAS REGION: INTEGRATED-MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR, as well as energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This work describes the modeling of year-2030 policies significantly impact the region's future land use patterns, traffic conditions, greenhouse gas

Kockelman, Kara M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

VALUE STUDY  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

PREPARED FOR: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF CONTRACT RESOURCES AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SEPTEMBER 2008 UPDATE BY: AON CONSULTING INC. FEBRUARY 1999 UPDATED SEPTEMBER 29, 2008 VALUE STUDY DESK MANUAL Prepared for: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY By: BUCK CONSULTANTS Under DE-AC01-96AD38107 Update Prepared for: DOE By: AON CONSULTING, INC. Under Delivery Order DE-BP01-08MA345678, Contract No. DE-AB01-08-ME11881 Contents PART I Overview of Value Study Illustrative Flow Charts...................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Purpose................................................................................................................................................... 4

202

Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

M.R. Nava; Tugrul U. Daim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Application of a statistical post-processing technique to a gridded, operational, air quality forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53?gm?3 for O3, from?4.70 to?0.63?gm?3 for NO2, from?4.00 to?0.13?gm?3 for PM2.5 and from?7.70 to?0.25?gm?3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.

L.S. Neal; P. Agnew; S. Moseley; C. Ordez; N.H. Savage; M. Tilbee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Value Engineering  

Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

To establish Department of Energy (DOE) value engineering policy that meets the requirements of Public Law 104-106, Section 4306 as codified by 41 United States Code 432. Canceled by DOE N 251.94. Does not cancel other directives.

2004-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

205

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

206

Energy and value  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Energy theories of value are reviewed and a new variant introduced, based on the empirical relationship between price per unit mass and energy requirement per unit mass for a wide range of commodities. It is shown that the demand pattern of households in the United Kingdom and the United States for energy (direct and embodied in goods) would tend to produce a declining ratio of energy to gross domestic product (GDP). However, the tendency of goods with low energy intensity to be associated with low-productivity gains introduces a counteracting effect, and energy/GDP ratios are fairly stable over time. The study of UK and US demand patterns is expanded to cover five additional developed countries, and their similarity is demonstrated once the effect of fuel price and time period of adjustment are taken into account. Finally, the simple relationship connecting energy intensity, fuel price, and time constant of adjustment is used to forecast (retrospectively) the energy use per dollar of GDP in each of the seven countries for the year 1976.

Roberts, P.C.

1981-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

208

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

209

The value of RFID in transportation : from greater operational efficiency to collaborative transportation management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper assesses the value of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) in the transportation forecasting, planning, and execution processes for truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) services. The results show that ...

Guitton, Antoine, 1963-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

211

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

212

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

213

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

214

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

220

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Boards long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

223

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

224

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

226

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

227

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

228

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

229

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

230

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

231

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

232

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

233

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

234

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

235

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

236

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

237

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

239

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

240

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Takens embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid LevenbergMarquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

242

National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

1982-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

243

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

245

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

246

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2006-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

247

An adaptive load dispatching and forecasting strategy for a virtual power plant including renewable energy conversion units  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The increasing awareness on the risky state of conventional energy sources in terms of future energy supply security and health of environment has promoted the research activities on alternative energy systems. However, due to the fact that the power production of main alternative sources such as wind and solar is directly related with meteorological conditions, these sources should be combined with dispatchable energy sources in a hybrid combination in order to ensure security of demand supply. In this study, the evaluation of such a hybrid system consisting of wind, solar, hydrogen and thermal power systems in the concept of virtual power plant strategy is realized. An economic operation-based load dispatching strategy that can interactively adapt to the real measured wind and solar power production values is proposed. The adaptation of the load dispatching algorithm is provided by the update mechanism employed in the meteorological condition forecasting algorithms provided by the combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition, Cascade-Forward Neural Network and Linear Model through a fusion strategy. Thus, the effects of the stochastic nature of solar and wind energy systems are better overcome in order to participate in the electricity market with higher benefits.

A. Tascikaraoglu; O. Erdinc; M. Uzunoglu; A. Karakas

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

249

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

250

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

251

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

252

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

253

Future Changes in the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by a Multidecadal Simulation with a 16-km Global Atmospheric GCM  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast ...

Julia V. Manganello; Kevin I. Hodges; Brandt Dirmeyer; James L. Kinter III; Benjamin A. Cash; Lawrence Marx; Thomas Jung; Deepthi Achuthavarier; Jennifer M. Adams; Eric L. Altshuler; Bohua Huang; Emilia K. Jin; Peter Towers; Nils Wedi

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

255

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

257

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

258

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

259

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

260

Framtidens lantbruk / Future Agriculture Future Agriculture  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Framtidens lantbruk / Future Agriculture Future Agriculture ­ Livestock, Crops and Land Use Report from a multidisciplinary research platform. Phase I (2009 ­ 2012) #12;Future Agriculture ­ Livestock Waldenström Utgivningsår: 2012, Uppsala Utgivare: SLU, Framtidens lantbruk/Future Agriculture Layout: Pelle

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I and load data, estimates weather-normalized electric loads, computes design- day parameters, computes data, extrapolating past load growth patterns into the future. The most common trending method

Feinberg, Eugene A.

262

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

263

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

266

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

267

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

268

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modelensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

1 - The Smart Customer 1 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer: From Future Power Systems (FPS) articles 18 and 19 we can see that there are a number of different trading and tariff mechanisms which can be employed on the utility to customer interface to enable participation. From article 20 we see that there will be different pricing profiles on similar day types due to changes in availability of renewable generation. Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. AARP, National Consumer Law Center, and Public Citizen Comments to:DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Smart Grid RFI: Addressing Policy and Logistical

271

Expected Future Value Decomposition Based Bid Price Generation ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Each root-to-leaf path in the tree represents one specific scenario and ..... In terms of the input data used by each model, in simulation period ts, PH uses the.

2009-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

272

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis--vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Arajo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

277

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

278

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

279

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

280

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

283

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing quasi-deterministic components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

284

Living a Sustainable Future  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Living a Sustainable Future Living a Sustainable Future August 1, 2013 Biomass to fuel project The Laboratory's biomass team is working to solve the energy crisis through...

285

Nuclear and Particle Futures  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Nuclear and Particle Futures Nuclear and Particle Futures The Lab's four Science Pillars harness capabilities for solutions to threats- on national and global scales. Contacts...

286

OSCARS-Future-Tech  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

OSCARS and Future Tech Engineering Services The Network OSCARS How It Works Who's Using OSCARS? OSCARS and Future Tech OSCARS Standard and Open Grid Forum OSCARS Developers...

287

Active stewardship: sustainable future  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

stewardship: sustainable future Active stewardship: sustainable future Energy sustainability is a daunting task: How do we develop top-notch innovations with some of the...

288

Ris Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risø Energy Report 4 International trends and scenarios for future energy systems 3 Introduction In evaluations of long term energy forecasts made in the past the conclusion often is that a large number on internationally recognised scientific material". One key observation in a recent evaluation of long term energy

289

Simulated impact of urban expansion on future temperature heatwaves in Sydney  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on 2-m temperature are investigated over Greater Sydney using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF the expected urban expansion in the future simulation according to local government urbanisation plans, are partly explained by the prevalent direction of winds that compensate or intensify the effect urbanisation

Evans, Jason

290

Artificial neural network based models for forecasting electricity generation of grid connected solar PV power plant  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for forecasting the performance of electric energy generated output from a working 25-kWp grid connected solar PV system and a 100-kWp grid connected PV system installed at Minicoy Island of Union Territory of Lakshadweep Islands. The ANN interpolates among the solar PV generation output and relevant parameters such as solar radiation, module temperature and clearness index. In this study, three ANN models are implemented and validated with reasonable accuracy on real electric energy generation output data. The first model is univariate based on solar radiation and the output values. The second model is a multivariate model based on module temperature along with solar radiation. The third model is also a multivariate model based on module temperature, solar radiation and clearness index. A forecasting performance measure such as percentage root mean square error has been presented for each model. The second model, which gives the most accurate results, has been used in forecasting the generation output for another PV system with similar accuracy.

Imtiaz Ashraf; A. Chandra

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

The house of the future  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Learn what it will take to create tomorrow's net-zero energy home as scientists reveal the secrets of cool roofs, smart windows, and computer-driven energy control systems. The net-zero energy home: Scientists are working to make tomorrow's homes more than just energy efficient -- they want them to be zero energy. Iain Walker, a scientist in the Lab's Energy Performance of Buildings Group, will discuss what it takes to develop net-zero energy houses that generate as much energy as they use through highly aggressive energy efficiency and on-site renewable energy generation. Talking back to the grid: Imagine programming your house to use less energy if the electricity grid is full or price are high. Mary Ann Piette, deputy director of Berkeley Lab's building technology department and director of the Lab's Demand Response Research Center, will discuss how new technologies are enabling buildings to listen to the grid and automatically change their thermostat settings or lighting loads, among other demands, in response to fluctuating electricity prices. The networked (and energy efficient) house: In the future, your home's lights, climate control devices, computers, windows, and appliances could be controlled via a sophisticated digital network. If it's plugged in, it'll be connected. Bruce Nordman, an energy scientist in Berkeley Lab's Energy End-Use Forecasting group, will discuss how he and other scientists are working to ensure these networks help homeowners save energy.

None

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

293

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

294

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

295

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

296

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

298

Analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO/sub 2/  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report investigates the likely rates and the potential range of future CO/sub 2/ emissions, combined with knowledge of the global cycle of carbon, to estimate a possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations through the year 2075. Historic fossil fuel usage to the present, growing at a rate of 4.5% per year until 1973 and at a slower rate of 1.9% after 1973, was combined with three scenarios of projected emissions growth ranging from approximately 0.2 to 2.8% per year to provide annual CO/sub 2/ emissions data for two different carbon cycle models. The emissions scenarios were constructed using an energy-economic model and by varying key parameters within the bounds of currently expected future values. The extreme values for CO/sub 2/ emissions in the year 2075 are 6.8 x 10/sup 15/ and 91 x 10/sup 15/ g C year/sup -1/. Carbon cycle model simulations used a range of year - 1800 preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of 245 to 292 ppM CO/sub 2/ and three scenarios of bioshere conversion as additional atmospheric CO/sub 2/ source terms. These simulations yield a range of possible atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in year 2075 of approximately 500 to 1500 ppM, with a median of about 700 ppM. The time at which atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would potentially double from the preindustrial level ranges from year 2025 to >2075. The practical, programmatic value of this forecast exercise is that it forces quantitative definition of the assumptions, and the uncertainties therein, which form the basis of our understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycle of carbon and both historic and future human influences on the dynamics of the global cycle. Assumptions about the possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels provide a basis on which to evaluate the implications of these changes on climate and the biosphere. 44 references, 17 figures, 21 tables.

Edmonds, J.A.; Reilly, J.; Trabalka, J.R.; Reichle, D.E.

1984-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

300

Wind power forecast error smoothing within a wind farm  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Smoothing of wind power forecast errors is well-known for large areas. Comparable effects within a wind farm are investigated in this paper. A Neural Network was taken to predict the power output of a wind farm in north-western Germany comprising 17 turbines. A comparison was done between an algorithm that fits mean wind and mean power data of the wind farm and a second algorithm that fits wind and power data individually for each turbine. The evaluation of root mean square errors (RMSE) shows that relative small smoothing effects occur. However, it can be shown for this wind farm that individual calculations have the advantage that only a few turbines are needed to give better results than the use of mean data. Furthermore different results occurred if predicted wind speeds are directly fitted to observed wind power or if predicted wind speeds are first fitted to observed wind speeds and then applied to a power curve. The first approach gives slightly better RMSE values, the bias improves considerably.

Nadja Saleck; Lueder von Bremen

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Global Energy Futures: With International Futures (IFs)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dr. Hughes presents and discusses the results of simulations on alternative energy futures composed in collaboration with SNL's Sustainability Innovation Foundry.

Hughes, Barry

2013-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

303

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

305

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of a range of world oil prices for future energy demand andTo examine the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand andprojections of world oil prices. Th and demand. determined

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

307

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

308

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holts additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corbern-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

311

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

314

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

315

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

317

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; Andr Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

319

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

325

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

326

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Hctor Rodrguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Forecasting Using Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.g. Iraq war), changes in weather conditions (e.g. global warming), the behaviour of commodity prices can be expected to be nonstationary. 2 There has been some statistical study in this area (e.g. Deb et al., 1996, Taylor, 1980), though, research... returns of gas oil, coffee and rice. Figure I 16 Figure I. Time Series Plot. Gas Oil 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -20 -10 0 10 Ga s Oi l Coffee 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Co ffe e 17 Rice 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 -20 -10 0...

Sancetta, Alessio; Nikanrova, Arina

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

328

Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work. Keywords: Natural Gas

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of better understanding fuel price risk and the role thatonly to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e. , the risk thatsuch attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of better understanding fuel price risk and the role thatonly to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e. , the risk thatsuch attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of better understanding fuel price risk and the role thatonly to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e. , the risk thatsuch attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

The Future of the Earth's Climate: Frontiers in Forecasting (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Summer Lecture Series 2007: Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins discusses how observations show that the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented in recent history, and that human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry are probably the main culprits. He suggests a need for better observations and understanding of the carbon and hydrological cycles.

Collins, Bill

2011-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

337

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

339

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

340

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Policy Evolution and Futuring Chair: Neil Sugihara  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for the Future: Fire Protection in the Urban/ Rural/Wildland Interface (URWIN)1 Glenn W. Snyder2 Abstract Wildland fire protection in the United States has evolved from predominantly protecting natural resources values to protecting values of the urban-wildland interface. Providing fire protection in this "unnatural

Standiford, Richard B.

343

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

344

Future Climate Engineering Solutions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering Associations from around the world are part of the project `Future Climate - Engineering Solu- tions'. Within the project the participating associations have been developing national climate plansFuture Climate Engineering Solutions Joint report 13 engineering participating engeneering

345

Earth'future climate  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...their visions of the future I. Astronomy and Earth sciences compiled by J. M. T. Thompson Earth'future climate Mark A. Saunders 1 1 Benfield...provide informed scientific projections for Earth's climate into the next millennium. This...

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Mai, T.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Mai, T.

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Mai, T.

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Hand, M. M.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

1997-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

351

Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Combating Future Threats  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......research-article Future Combating Future Threats Andy Clark On 21 September BCS, The Chartered...leadership debate about future security threats. Andy Clark, Head of Forensics at Detica...and where are they? These are different threats. Smartphones are powerful, connected......

Andy Clark

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CHARTING BC'S ECONOMIC FUTURE discussionguide 100communityconversations #12;1 Thank you for agreeing to participate in this Community Conversation about BC's economic future. Each year Simon Fraser is "Charting BC's Economic Future". Faced with an increasingly competitive global economy, it is more important

Kavanagh, Karen L.

354

Renewable Electricity Futures Study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Renewable Electricity Futures Study End-use Electricity Demand Volume 3 of 4 Volume 2 PDF Volume 3;Renewable Electricity Futures Study Edited By Hand, M.M. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Baldwin, S. U Sandor, D. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested Citations Renewable Electricity Futures Study

355

Dark energy model selection with current and future data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The main goal of the next generation of weak lensing probes is to constrain cosmological parameters by measuring the mass distribution and geometry of the low redshift Universe and thus to test the concordance model of cosmology. A future all-sky tomographic cosmic shear survey with design properties similar to Euclid has the potential to provide the statistical accuracy required to distinguish between different dark energy models. In order to assess the model selection capability of such a probe, we consider the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w_0$. We forecast the Bayes factor of future observations, in the light of current information from Planck} by computing the predictive posterior odds distribution. We find that Euclid is unlikely to overturn current model selection results, and that the future data are likely to be compatible with a cosmological constant model. This result holds for a wide range of priors.

Debono, Ivan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper the analysis and forecasting of wind velocities in Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico is presented. Measurements were made by the Instituto de Investigaciones Elctricas (IIE) during two years, from 2004 to 2005. This location exemplifies the wind energy generation potential in the Caribbean coast of Mexico that could be employed in the hotel industry in the next decade. The wind speed and wind direction were measured at 10m above ground level. Sensors with high accuracy and a low starting threshold were used. The wind velocity was recorded using a data acquisition system supplied by a 10W photovoltaic panel. The wind speed values were measured with a frequency of 1Hz and the average wind speed was recorded considering regular intervals of 10min. First a statistical analysis of the time series was made in the first part of the paper through conventional and robust measures. Also the forecasting of the last day of measurements was made utilizing the single exponential smoothing method (SES). The results showed a very good accuracy of the data with this technique for an ? value of 0.9. Finally the SES method was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) method showing the former better results.

E. Cadenas; O.A. Jaramillo; W. Rivera

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

358

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

360

Options for Kentucky's Energy Future  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Three important imperatives are being pursued by the Commonwealth of Kentucky: ? Developing a viable economic future for the highly trained and experienced workforce and for the Paducah area that today supports, and is supported by, the operations of the US Department of Energys (DOEs) Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP). Currently, the PGDP is scheduled to be taken out of service in May, 2013. ? Restructuring the economic future for Kentuckys most abundant indigenous resource and an important industry the extraction and utilization of coal. The future of coal is being challenged by evolving and increasing requirements for its extraction and use, primarily from the perspective of environmental restrictions. Further, it is important that the economic value derived from this important resource for the Commonwealth, its people and its economy is commensurate with the risks involved. Over 70% of the extracted coal is exported from the Commonwealth and hence not used to directly expand the Commonwealths economy beyond the severance taxes on coal production. ? Ensuring a viable energy future for Kentucky to guarantee a continued reliable and affordable source of energy for its industries and people. Today, over 90% of Kentuckys electricity is generated by burning coal with a delivered electric power price that is among the lowest in the United States. Anticipated increased environmental requirements necessitate looking at alternative forms of energy production, and in particular electricity generation.

Larry Demick

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

362

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfallrunoffinundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corbern-Vallet; Jos D. Bermdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Mission Vision Values  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

are defined by the four characteristics listed above Core Values Safety We value safety in everything we do. Together, our actions result in people being safe each day, every...

368

Bhutan National Values Assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on the world. This level contains values such as empathy, counselling, community work, and environmental awareness. Level 7: Service The seventh level is attained when making a difference becomes a way of life. It reflects the highest order of internal... cohesion, maturity and/or a search for Journal for Bhutan Studies 104 meaning. The distribution of all values shows where the most energy is concentrated for this group, not just where there is consensus on specific values. A values gap occurs where...

Evans, Steve

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Energy and national values  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Energy and national values ... The article also scrutinizes recent technical developments in coal, nuclear energy, and solar energy. ...

MICHAEL HEYLIN

1991-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

370

Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Best Estimate (CSSEFARMBE)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project is working to improve the representation of the hydrological cycle in global climate models, critical information necessary for decision-makers to respond appropriately to predictions of future climate. In order to accomplish this objective, CSSEF is building testbeds to implement uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to objectively calibrate and diagnose climate model parameterizations and predictions with respect to local, process-scale observations. In order to quantify the agreement between models and observations accurately, uncertainty estimates on these observations are needed. The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program takes atmospheric and climate related measurements at three permanent locations worldwide. The ARM VAP called the ARM Best Estimate (ARMBE) [Xie et al., 2010] collects a subset of ARM observations, performs quality control checks, averages them to one hour temporal resolution, and puts them in a standard format for ease of use by climate modelers. ARMBE has been widely used by the climate modeling community as a summary product of many of the ARM observations. However, the ARMBE product does not include uncertainty estimates on the data values. Thus, to meet the objectives of the CSSEF project and enable better use of this data with UQ techniques, we created the CSSEFARMBE data set. Only a subset of the variables contained in ARMBE is included in CSSEFARMBE. Currently only surface meteorological observations are included, though this may be expanded to include other variables in the future. The CSSEFARMBE VAP is produced for all extended facilities at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site that contain surface meteorological equipment. This extension of the ARMBE data set to multiple facilities at SGP allows for better comparison between model grid boxes and the ARM point observations. In the future, CSSEFARMBE may also be created for other ARM sites. As each site has slightly different instrumentation, this will require additional development to understand the uncertainty characterization associated with instrumentation at those sites. The uncertainty assignment process is implemented into the ARM programs new Integrated Software Development Environment (ISDE) so that many of the key steps can be used in the future to screen data based on ARM Data Quality Reports (DQRs), propagate uncertainties when transforming data from one time scale into another, and convert names and units into NetCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) standards. These processes are described in more detail in the following sections.

Riihimaki, Laura D.; Gaustad, Krista L.; McFarlane, Sally A.

2012-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

371

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

372

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

374

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Future of Telecommunications  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... . G. Radley, of the Post Office Research Station at Dollis Hill, spoke on Telecommunications of the future. He pointed out that in 1914, although wire telephony had been ...

1941-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

376

Materials for the Future  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for the Future The Lab's four Science Pillars harness capabilities for solutions to threats- on national and global scales. Contacts Pillar Champion Mary Hockaday Email Pillar...

377

My Amazing Future 2012  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Idaho National Laboratory's My Amazing Future program gives 8th grade women the opportunity to experience careers in science and engineering.

None

2013-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

378

The Future Metropolitan Landscape  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

care for the design of this landscape, for its water, air,The Future Metropolitan Landscape Peter Bosselmann and Denirather to an urbanized landscape with multiple centers,

Bosselmann, Peter; Ruggeri, Deni

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 1224-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 20062010 based on the data for 19972005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

391

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

392

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

andvalidation. SolarEnergy. 73:5,307? Perez,R. ,irradianceforecastsforsolarenergyapplicationsbasedonforecastdatabase. SolarEnergy. 81:6,809?812.

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2005 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Although the IEO typically uses the same reference case as the AEO, IEO2005 has adopted the October futures case from AEO2005 as its reference case for the United States. The October futures case, which has an assumption of higher world oil prices than the AEO2005 reference case, now appears to be a more likely projection. The reference case prices will be reconsidered for the next AEO. Based on information available as of July 2005, the AEO2006 reference case will likely reflect world oil prices higher than those in the IEO2005 reference case.

397

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

2013-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

398

Consumer value creation in mobile banking services  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The paper presents findings of the study that explored consumer value creation in various mobile banking services. New electronic channels are replacing the more traditional ones. Mobile devices represent the recent development in electronic service distribution. An exploratory study was conducted on experienced electronic banking customers by using a qualitative in-depth interviewing method. The findings increase the understanding of customer-perceived value and value creation on the basis of attributes of mobile services and customer-perceived disadvantages of mobile phones in electronic banking context. The findings allow practitioners to improve their services and marketing strategies and pass on information to the academics about interesting future research areas.

Tommi Laukkanen; Jari Lauronen

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

400

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

402

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

403

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

404

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

405

The Hanford Story: Future  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Future Chapter of the Hanford Story illustrates the potential and possibilities offered by a post-cleanup Hanford. From land use plans and preservation at Hanford to economic development and tourism opportunities, the Future chapter touches on a variety of local economic, cultural and environmental perspectives.

406

FUTURE LOGISTICS LIVING LABORATORY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FUTURE LOGISTICS LIVING LABORATORY Delivering Innovation The Future Logistics Living Lab is a collaboration between NICTA, SAP and Fraunhofer. Australia's first Living Lab provides a platform for industry and research to work together, to investigate real-world problems and to demonstrate innovative technology

Heiser, Gernot

407

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It is being presented at the Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group Fall Technical Workshop on October 24, 2012.

Hand, M.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a Power Systems Engineering Research Center webinar on September 4, 2012.

Mai, T.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in an Union of Concerned Scientists webinar on June 12, 2012.

Hand, M.; Mai, T.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a webinar given by the California Energy Commission.

Hand, M. M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. This presentation was presented in a Wind Powering America webinar on August 15, 2012 and is now available through the Wind Powering America website.

Mai, T.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

Fermilab | Plan for the Future | Fermilab's Future  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Fermilab's Future Fermilab's Future 2013-2015 Next Fermilab's research program for 2015 and beyond New facilities at Fermilab, the nation's dedicated particle physics laboratory, would provide thousands of scientists from across the United States and around the world with world-class scientific opportunities. In collaboration with the Department of Energy and the particle physics community, Fermilab is pursuing a strategic plan that addresses fundamental questions about the physical laws that govern matter, energy, space and time. Fermilab is advancing plans for the best facilities in the world for the exploration of neutrinos and rare subatomic processes, far beyond current global capabilities. The proposed construction of a two-megawatt high-intensity proton accelerator, Project X, would enable a comprehensive

413

Do traders' positions predict oil futures prices? A case study of the 2008 oil market turbulence  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper empirically tests whether traders' positions predict crude oil futures prices through a case study of the 2008 oil market turbulence. It is found that the three-week-long trend of traders' net long position significantly forecasts prices when the prices excessively rise from April to July 2008. In specific, speculator's trend forecasts price continuation, whereas the hedger's trend predicts price reversals. However, during the price-collapsing period, no significant predictability is found. These findings provide two implications. First, the hedging-pressure theory can be supported in oil futures market when the market prices excessively rise and traders' position data are used as trend concept. Second, the recent argument on 'the 2008 oil bubble' asserting that excessive rise in oil prices during the second quarter of 2008 is associated with speculator's positions can be supported.

Sunghee Choi; Seok-Joon Hwang

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

415

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

416

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

417

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

418

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

419

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

420

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

422

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

423

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 What constrains spread growth in forecasts ini2alized from ensemble Kalman filters? Tom from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due to the model (e.g., stochas2c physics as error; part of spread growth from manner in which ini2al condi2ons are generated, some due

Hamill, Tom

425

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

426

Operational Forecasts of Cloud Cover and Water Vapour  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the forecast programme, which involved the additional use of 10.7 µm GOES-8 satellite data and surface weather cirrus cloud cover 15 5. A satellite-derived extinction parameter 17 5.1 Background 17 5.2 Previous work 20 5.3 Continued development of a satellite-derived 22 extinction parameter 6. Suggestions

427

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

428

Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

samples, then many verification metrics will credit a forecast with extra skill it doesn't deserve islands, zero meteorologists Imagine a planet with a global ocean and two isolated islands. Weather three metrics... (1) Brier Skill Score (2) Relative Operating Characteristic (3) Equitable Threat Score

Hamill, Tom

429

URBAN OZONE CONCENTRATION FORECASTING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN CORSICA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Perceptron; Ozone concentration. 1. Introduction Tropospheric ozone is a major air pollution problem, both, Ajaccio, France, e-mail: balu@univ-corse.fr Abstract: Atmospheric pollutants concentration forecasting is an important issue in air quality monitoring. Qualitair Corse, the organization responsible for monitoring air

Boyer, Edmond

430

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

431

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

432

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Frequencies in Europe Matthew J. Swann;Abstract Flood and wind damage to property and livelihoods resulting from extreme precipitation events variability of these extreme events can be closely related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Feigon, Brooke

433

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

434

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at Wind Powering America States Summit. The Summit, which follows the American Wind Energy Association's (AWEA's) annual WINDPOWER Conference and Exhibition, provides state Wind Working Groups, state energy officials, U.S. Energy Department and national laboratory representatives, and professional and institutional partners an opportunity to review successes, opportunities, and challenges for wind energy and plan future collaboration.

DeMeo, E.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology -  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

EWEC 2006, Athens, The Anemos Wind Power Forecasting Platform Technology 1 The Anemos Wind Power a professional, flexible platform for operating wind power prediction models, laying the main focus on state models from all over Europe are able to work on this platform. Keywords: wind energy, wind power

Boyer, Edmond

436

High coking value pitch  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A high coking value pitch prepared from coal tar distillate and has a low softening point and a high carbon value while containing substantially no quinoline insolubles is disclosed. The pitch can be used as an impregnant or binder for producing carbon and graphite articles.

Miller, Douglas J.; Chang, Ching-Feng; Lewis, Irwin C.; Lewis, Richard T.

2014-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

437

VALUE ENGINEERING.PDF  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

6 6 I N S P E C T I O N R E P O R T U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL OFFICE OF INSPECTIONS FOLLOW-ON INSPECTION OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S VALUE ENGINEERING PROGRAM DECEMBER 2001 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Washington, DC 20585 December 20, 2001 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY FROM: Gregory H. Friedman /s/ Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Report on "Follow-on Inspection of the Department of Energy's Value Engineering Program" BACKGROUND Value Engineering is a recognized management tool which, if properly implemented and executed, can streamline operations, improve quality, and reduce costs. Through the use of methodologies such as Value Engineering, Federal agencies are realizing an average of more than $20 in savings/costs avoidance for each dollar spent on performing the value effort.

438

Collaborative future event recommendation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We demonstrate a method for collaborative ranking of future events. Previous work on recommender systems typically relies on feedback on a particular item, such as a movie, and generalizes this to other items or other ...

Minkov, Einat

439

Preparing for the Future  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

tx H2O | pg. 12 Preparing for the Future Story by Kathy Wythe Preparing for the Future University establishes water management degree program Texas A&M University launched an interdisci-plinary water management degree programduring the fall... 2005 semester with 12 stu-dents seeking either master?s or doctorate degrees in water management and hydrologic sciences. The degree program, the first in Texas, includes 42 faculty members in 12 departments from four differ- ent colleges, said Ron...

Wythe, Kathy

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Buying Hedge with Futures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service. Many bulk purchasers of agricultural com- modities need price risk management tools to help stabilize input prices. Livestock feeders... anticipating future feed needs or grain export- ers making commitments to sell grain are two users of agricultural commodities who could benefit from input price management strate- gies. A common tool is a buying, or long, hedge using futures. Producers...

Welch, Mark; Kastens, Terry L.

2009-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented to the 2012 Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners, during their June, 2012, meeting. The Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners is a regional association within the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC).

Hand, M. M.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Future contingencies and photovoltaic system worth  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The value of dispersed photovoltaic systems connected to the utility grid has been calculated using the General Electric Optimized Generation Planning program. The 1986 to 2001 time period was used for this study. Photovoltaic systems were dynamically integrated, up to 5% total capacity, into 9 NERC based regions under a range of future fuel and economic contingencies. Value was determined by the change in revenue requirements due to the photovoltaic additions. Displacement of high cost fuel was paramount to value, while capacity displacement was highly variable and dependent upon regional fuel mix.

Jones, G. J.; Thomas, M. G.; Bonk, G. J.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

The Place Value Game  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Place Value Game Place Value Game Welcome to the Place Value Game! The goal of the Place Value Game is to create the largest possible number from the digits the computer gives you. Unfortunately, the computer will give you each digit one at a time and you won't know what the next number will be. You are not allowed to rearrange any of the digits you have already placed, so think carefully before you lock a number in place! Good luck! You are allowed to select the: Number of Digits - The number of digits in the number you are building. Largest Digit - The largest number the computer is allowed to pick. (9 means that the computer can pick any number from 0 to 9) Number of Discards - The number of extra spaces you get. (2 means that you are allowed to throw away 2 numbers) A JavaScript enabled web browser (Netscape Navigator 4 or Internet Explorer

444

Hanford Advisory Board Values  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Values Adopted: November 2, 2012 1 Since its founding in 1994, the Hanford Advisory Board (Board) has issued more than 260 pieces of consensus advice on a myriad of topics related...

445

Value of Information References  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This file contains a list of relevant references on value of information (VOI) in RIS format. VOI provides a quantitative analysis to evaluate the outcome of the combined technologies (seismology, hydrology, geodesy) used to monitor Brady's Geothermal Field.

Morency, Christina

2014-12-12T23:59:59.000Z

446

Value of Information References  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

This file contains a list of relevant references on value of information (VOI) in RIS format. VOI provides a quantitative analysis to evaluate the outcome of the combined technologies (seismology, hydrology, geodesy) used to monitor Brady's Geothermal Field.

Morency, Christina

447

Theories of Biodiversity Value  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The discussion of the calculus of biodiversity values in Chap. 5 is the final requisite prop for the stage across which this chapter parades accounts of how biodiversity is supposed to be valuable. The selecti...

Donald S. Maier

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil futures prices using conditional moments of integrated volatility  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We evaluate alternative models of the volatility of commodity futures prices based on high-frequency intraday data from the crude oil futures markets for the October 2001December 2012 period. These models are implemented with a simple GMM estimator that matches sample moments of the realized volatility to the corresponding population moments of the integrated volatility. Models incorporating both stochastic volatility and jumps in the returns series are compared on the basis of the overall fit of the data over the full sample period and subsamples. We also find that jumps in the returns series add to the accuracy of volatility forecasts.

Christopher F. Baum; Paola Zerilli

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

).......................58 Fig. 29 - Mixed well objective function value vs. model number (static case) ....59 Fig. 30 - Histogram of cumulative oil production made by static case ................60 Fig. 31 - CDF of cumulative production by mixed well models...-well sampled models in the chain to quantify the uncertainty in future oil production. We use all the models in Fig. 2 except for the first 7,000 models, whose objective function value is significantly high. Unfortunately, even though the MCMC method is a...

Liu, Chang

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

450

Water Requirements for Future Energy production in California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pumped Storage Source: "Electrici ty Forecasting and Planning," ary Report, Energy Assessment Division, off main system

Sathaye, J.A.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Designing future cities | Argonne National Laboratory  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

power streaming into our homes and businesses is a balanced coordination between energy suppliers and energy producers. To provide planners with better energy demand forecasts...

452

Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal ofunder development by EERE have a considerable advantage inintroducing uncertainty into EEREs forecasting in a manner

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Forecast Calls for Better Models: Examining the Core Components of Arctic Clouds to Clear Their Influence on Climate For original submission and image(s), see ARM Research Highlights http://www.arm.gov/science/highlights/ Research Highlight Predicting how atmospheric aerosols influence cloud formation and the resulting feedback to climate is a challenge that limits the accuracy of atmospheric models. This is especially true in the Arctic, where mixed-phase (both ice- and liquid-based) clouds are frequently observed, but the processes that determine their composition are poorly understood. To obtain a closer look at what makes up Arctic clouds, scientists characterized cloud droplets and ice crystals collected at the North Slope of Alaska as part of the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) field study

454

Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the out-predictability of fundamentals and forecast combinations. By adopting a panel-based specification, the paper obtains several interesting results. First, the Taylor-rule-based fundamental is the best among the four different fundamentals under consideration in out-of-sample contests. It provides strong evidence to out-predict the random walk over the PBW period. Second, relative to a single-equation prediction, panel predictions are generally able to enhance the statistical significance of beating the random walk. Third, combining forecasts from different fundamentals that have relatively strong out-predictability at a specific horizon does enhance both the statistical and economic significances of beating the random walk for the PBW period at short horizons.

Jyh-Lin Wu; Yi-Chiuan Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

NOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.S.D EPARTMENT OF COM M ERCE How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? How Do You Make a Weather Satellite? #12;Well you put a truck in orbit? So it can carry all the things needed to make a working weather satelliteNOAA National Weather Service I'm a weather forecaster. I need to see clouds and storms from way up

Waliser, Duane E.

456

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

457

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

458

Introduction to Futures Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in Chicago. To reduce their risk exposure, grain dealers began selling ?To Arrive? contracts, which specified the future date (usually the month) a speci- fied quantity of grain would be delivered to a particular location at a price identified... in the contract. Fixing the price in advance of deliv- ery reduced the grain dealer?s risk and made it easier to obtain credit to finance grain purchas- es from farmers. The ?To Arrive? contracts were a forerunner of the futures contracts traded today. Although...

Mintert, James R.; Welch, Mark

2009-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

459

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at the 2012 RE AMP Annual Meeting. RE-AMP is an active network of 144 nonprofits and foundations across eight Midwestern states working on climate change and energy policy with the goal of reducing global warming pollution economy-wide 80% by 2050.

Mai, T.

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Value Study Desk Manual  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

PREPARED FOR: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Contractor Human Resources Policy Division September 26, 2012 UPDATE VALUE STUDY DESK MANUAL Prepared for: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY By: BUCK CONSULTANTS Under DE-AC01-96AD38107 Update Prepared for: DOE By: AON CONSULTING, INC. Under Delivery Order DE-BP01-08MA345678, Contract No. DE-AB01-08-ME11881 September 28, 2008 Update Prepared for: DOE By: Aon Hewitt Inc. Under Delivery Order DE-BP01-08MA345678, Contract No. DE-AB01-08-ME11881 September 26, 2012 Contents PART I Overview of Value Study Illustrative Flow Charts ..................................................................................... 1

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Value of Information spreadsheet  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

This spreadsheet represents the information posteriors derived from synthetic data of magnetotellurics (MT). These were used to calculate value of information of MT for geothermal exploration. Information posteriors describe how well MT was able to locate the "throat" of clay caps, which are indicative of hidden geothermal resources. This data is full explained in the peer-reviewed publication: Trainor-Guitton, W., Hoversten, G. M., Ramirez, A., Roberts, J., Jlusson, E., Key, K., Mellors, R. (Sept-Oct. 2014) The value of spatial information for determining well placement: a geothermal example, Geophysics.

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney

462

Value of Information spreadsheet  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This spreadsheet represents the information posteriors derived from synthetic data of magnetotellurics (MT). These were used to calculate value of information of MT for geothermal exploration. Information posteriors describe how well MT was able to locate the "throat" of clay caps, which are indicative of hidden geothermal resources. This data is full explained in the peer-reviewed publication: Trainor-Guitton, W., Hoversten, G. M., Ramirez, A., Roberts, J., Jlusson, E., Key, K., Mellors, R. (Sept-Oct. 2014) The value of spatial information for determining well placement: a geothermal example, Geophysics.

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney

2014-05-12T23:59:59.000Z

463

Science and Human Values  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... THE three essays on "Science and Human A Values" which Dr. J. Bronowski has contributed to recent issues ... Dr. Bronowski discusses the sense of human dignity and challenges widely held views of what science is and does. These views are highly relevant to the current task of developing- ...

1957-02-02T23:59:59.000Z

464

Economic Value of Agricultural  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Economic Value of Agricultural Research Public Investment in Texas Agricultural Research Yields Significant Economic Returns #12;Texas agricultural producers and especially consumers benefit directly from in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University conducted analyses using an agriculture

465

Singular Value Decomposition Generalized  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Overview The singular value decomposition (SVD) is a generalization of the eigen- ferent eigenvalues are pairwise orthogonal. Let X be a positive semi-definite, its eigen containing the eigenvalues of X. The SVD uses the eigen-decomposition of a positive semi-definite matrix

Abdi, Hervé

466

Future of Optical Astronomy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... I BELIEVE that optical astronomy in Great Britain has now reached, for virtually the first time in its history, ... studied in universities and in Government and industrial laboratories; but with two exceptions, optical astronomy is studied almost entirely in university laboratories only, and its future largely depends on ...

D. E. BLACKWELL

1962-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Quantum motor and future  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In a popular language, the possibilities of the Casimir expulsion effect are presented, which can be the basis of quantum motors. Such motors can be in the form of a special multilayer thin film with periodic and complex nanosized structures. Quantum motors of the type of the Casimir platforms can be the base of transportation, energy and many other systems in the future.

Fateev, Evgeny G

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Quantum motor and future  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In a popular language, the possibilities of the Casimir expulsion effect are presented, which can be the basis of quantum motors. Such motors can be in the form of a special multilayer thin film with periodic and complex nanosized structures. Quantum motors of the type of the Casimir platforms can be the base of transportation, energy and many other systems in the future.

Evgeny G. Fateev

2013-01-20T23:59:59.000Z

469

Simulation in the future  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Seven panelists, all simulation consultants, give their view of the future of simulation. There is some consistency in the views with four areas being mentioned by three of the panelists, and four areas being mentioned by two of the panelists. However, ...

Jerry Banks

2000-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Food for the Future  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...harnessing free sources of energy, includ-ing the...volcanoes, and thermal gradients of the...exchangers, wind converters, and tide tur-bines...with quantities of energy of the magnitude...Fresh Water from the Ocean (Con-servation...P. C. Putnam, Energy in the Future (Van...

J. G. Harrar

1955-08-19T23:59:59.000Z

471

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. Minh Le Minh Le Program Manager, Solar Program What Do These Projects Do? The Energy Department is investing $8 million in two cutting-edge projects to increase the accuracy of solar forecasting at sub-hourly,

472

Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: A hybrid LSSVM and ARMAX approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A hybrid mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting model combining both least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and auto-regressive moving average with external input (ARMAX) modules is presented in this paper. Mid-term electricity MCP forecasting has become essential for resources reallocation, maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracting, budgeting and planning purposes. Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting, but very little has been done in the area of mid-term electricity MCP forecasting. PJM interconnection data have been utilized to illustrate the proposed model with numerical examples. The proposed hybrid model showed improved forecasting accuracy compared to a forecasting model using a single LSSVM.

Xing Yan; Nurul A. Chowdhury

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

474

DOE: Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report summarizes research to Quantify the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid. This 3-year DOE study focused on defining value of hydropower assets in a changing electric grid. Methods are described for valuation and planning of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The project team conducted plant case studies, electric system modeling, market analysis, cost data gathering, and evaluations of operating strategies and constraints. Five other reports detailing these research results are available a project website, www.epri.com/hydrogrid. With increasing deployment of wind and solar renewable generation, many owners, operators, and developers of hydropower have recognized the opportunity to provide more flexibility and ancillary services to the electric grid. To quantify value of services, this study focused on the Western Electric Coordinating Council region. A security-constrained, unit commitment and economic dispatch model was used to quantify the role of hydropower for several future energy scenarios up to 2020. This hourly production simulation considered transmission requirements to deliver energy, including future expansion plans. Both energy and ancillary service values were considered. Addressing specifically the quantification of pumped storage value, no single value stream dominated predicted plant contributions in various energy futures. Modeling confirmed that service value depends greatly on location and on competition with other available grid support resources. In this summary, ten different value streams related to hydropower are described. These fell into three categories; operational improvements, new technologies, and electricity market opportunities. Of these ten, the study was able to quantify a monetary value in six by applying both present day and future scenarios for operating the electric grid. This study confirmed that hydropower resources across the United States contribute significantly to operation of the grid in terms of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Many potential improvements to existing hydropower plants were found to be cost-effective. Pumped storage is the most likely form of large new hydro asset expansions in the U.S. however, justifying investments in new pumped storage plants remains very challenging with current electricity market economics. Even over a wide range of possible energy futures, up to 2020, no energy future was found to bring quantifiable revenues sufficient to cover estimated costs of plant construction. Value streams not quantified in this study may provide a different cost-benefit balance and an economic tipping point for hydro. Future studies are essential in the quest to quantify the full potential value. Additional research should consider the value of services provided by advanced storage hydropower and pumped storage at smaller time steps for integration of variable renewable resources, and should include all possible value streams such as capacity value and portfolio benefits i.e.; reducing cycling on traditional generation.

None

2012-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

475

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to measure various aspects of the California redwood lumber industry. The first sought to explain the economic struc- ture of the short-run market for redwood lumber by preparing short-range forecasts of price, new orders, shipments, produc- tion, stocks... regression coefficients (20) . The second study was directed at developing a short-run forecast of new orders for redwood lumber (21) . Several forecasting techniques were developed, but econometrics, i. e. , multiple regression analysis, provided...

Jackson, Ben Douglas

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

477

PV Value | Department of Energy  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

PV Value PV Value PV Value is a web-based tool that calculates the energy production value for a residential or commercial photovoltaic (PV) system. The tool is Uniform Standards...

478

Winning the Biofuel Future | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Biofuel Future Biofuel Future Winning the Biofuel Future March 7, 2011 - 4:44pm Addthis Secretary Chu Secretary Chu Former Secretary of Energy Today, the Department announced that a research team at our BioEnergy Science Center achieved yet another advance in the drive toward next generation biofuels: using a microbe to convert plant matter directly into isobutanol. Isobutanol can be burned in regular car engines with a heat value higher than ethanol and similar to gasoline. This is part of a broad portfolio of work the Department is doing to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil and create new economic opportunities for rural America. This announcement is yet another sign of the rapid progress we are making in developing the next generation of biofuels that can help reduce our oil

479

R-value Calculator  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Advanced Wall Systems Advanced Wall Systems ORNL Home ASTM Testing BEP Home Related Sites Work With Us Advanced Wall Systems Home Interactive Calculators New Whole Wall R-value Calculators As A Part Of The ORNL Material Database For Whole Building Energy Simulations These calculators are replacing the old Whole Wall Thermal Performance calculator. These new versions of the calculator contain many new features and are part of the newly developed Interactive Envelope Materials Database for Whole-Building Energy Simulation Programs. The simple version of the Whole Wall R-value calculator is now available for use. This calculator is similar to the previous Whole Wall Thermal Performance calculator and does not require any downloads from the user. However, it was updated to allow calculations for fourteen wall details

480

Measuring Value in Healthcare  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A statistical description and model of individual healthcare expenditures in the US has been developed for measuring value in healthcare. We find evidence that healthcare expenditures are quantifiable as an infusion-diffusion process, which can be thought of intuitively as a steady change in the intensity of treatment superimposed on a random process reflecting variations in the efficiency and effectiveness of treatment. The arithmetic mean represents the net average annual cost of healthcare; and when multiplied by the arithmetic standard deviation, which represents the effective risk, the result is a measure of healthcare cost control. Policymakers, providers, payors, or patients that decrease these parameters are generating value in healthcare. The model has an average absolute prediction error of approximately 10-12% across the range of expenditures which spans 6 orders of magnitude over a nearly 10-year period. For the top 1% of the population with the largest expenditures, representing 20%-30% of total ...

Gardner, Christopher

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecasting future values" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

better forecasts, wind energy plant operators and industry professionals can ensure wind turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers....

482

Intra-hour wind power variability assessment using the conditional range metric : quantification, forecasting and applications.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research presented herein concentrates on the quantification, assessment and forecasting of intra-hour wind power variability. Wind power is intrinsically variable and, due to the (more)

Boutsika, Thekla

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of the (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Study and implementation of mesoscale weather forecasting models in the wind industry.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? As the wind industry is developing, it is asking for more reliable short-term wind forecasts to better manage the wind farms operations and electricity (more)

Jourdier, Bndicte

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

iscriticalforcoastalCaliforniasolarforecasting. affectingsolarirradianceinsouthernCalifornia. solar photovoltaicgeneration(thesouthernCalifornia

Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical energy forecasting Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

of PV energy production using... Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer... , Detlev Heinemann Energy and Semiconductor...

487

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The DOE Wind Program has issued a Notice of Intent for a funding opportunity, tentatively titled Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain.

488

Comparison of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This article combines and discusses three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models that were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe. All forecast models are based directly or indirectly on numerical weather prediction (NWP). Two models are common to the three validation efforts the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model and allow general observations: (1) the GFS-based WRF- model forecasts do not perform as well as global forecast-based approaches such as ECMWF and (2) the simple averaging of models output tends to perform better than individual models.

Richard Perez; Elke Lorenz; Sophie Pelland; Mark Beauharnois; Glenn Van Knowe; Karl Hemker Jr.; Detlev Heinemann; Jan Remund; Stefan C. Mller; Wolfgang Traunmller; Gerald Steinmauer; David Pozo; Jose A. Ruiz-Arias; Vicente Lara-Fanego; Lourdes Ramirez-Santigosa; Martin Gaston-Romero; Luis M. Pomares

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

FUTURES with Jaime Escalante  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy awarded the Foundation for Advancements in Science and Education (FASE) $826,000 as support to produce the second set of FUTURES segments consisting of 12, 15-minute programs. The programs provide motivation for students to study math by connecting math to the work place and real-life problem scenarios. The programs are broadcast in 50 states through PBS Elementary and Secondary Service (E/SS). The grant term ended on December 16, 1993 and this final report documents program and financial activity results. The 12 episodes are titled: Animal Care, Meteorology, Mass Communication, Advanced Energy, Oceanography, Graphic Design, Future Habitats, Environmental Science & Technology, Fitness & Physical Performance, Interpersonal Communications, Advanced Transportation and Product Design. Each program addresses as many as ten careers or job types within the broader field named. Minority and gender-balanced role models appear throughout the programs.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Driving the Future  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

the Future the Future A r g o n n e ' s v e h i c l e s ys t e m s r e s e A r c h 3 2 v e h i c l e s y s t e m s r e s e a r c h At Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research, our goal is to accelerate the development and deployment of vehicle technologies that help reduce our nation's petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Our Vehicle Systems research focuses on maximizing vehicle performance and efficiency through in-depth studies of the interactions and integration of components and controls in a large, complex vehicle system. Working with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the automotive industry, we investigate the potential of vehicle technologies ranging from alternative fuels to advanced powertrains, such as plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. Funding

491

Buildings of the Future  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are developing a vision for future buildingsat least one hundred years from todaybased on the collective views of thought leaders. As part of this effort, we will explore technology and demographic trends that could revolutionize the built environment across energy, water, environment, resilient design, health, security, and productivity.

492

Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities, Fiscal year 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Welcome to the US Department of Energy`s Forecast of Contracting and Subcontracting Opportunities. This forecast, which is published pursuant to Public Low 100--656, ``Business Opportunity Development Reform Act of 1988,`` is intended to inform small business concerns, including those owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, and women-owned small business concerns, of the anticipated fiscal year 1995 contracting and subcontracting opportunities with the Department of Energy and its management and operating contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors. This document will provide the small business contractor with advance notice of the Department`s procurement plans as they pertain to small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business concerns.Opportunities contained in the forecast support the mission of the Department, to serve as advocate for the notion`s energy production, regulation, demonstration, conservation, reserve maintenance, nuclear weapons and defense research, development and testing, when it is a national priority. The Department`s responsibilities include long-term, high-risk research and development of energy technology, the marketing of Federal power, and maintenance of a central energy data collection and analysis program. A key mission for the Department is to identify and reduce risks, as well as manage waste at more than 100 sites in 34 states and territories, where nuclear energy or weapons research and production resulted in radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste contamination. Each fiscal year, the Department establishes contracting goals to increase contracts to small business concerns and meet our mission objectives.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Data transforms with exponential smoothing methods of forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper, transforms are used with exponential smoothing, in the quest for better forecasts. Two types of transforms are explored: those which are applied to a time series directly, and those which are applied indirectly to the prediction errors. The various transforms are tested on a large number of time series from the M3 competition, and ANOVA is applied to the results. We find that the non-transformed time series is significantly worse than some transforms on the monthly data, and on a distribution-based performance measure for both annual and quarterly data.

Adrian N. Beaumont

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim (ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantly higher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and the subtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported by Caires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepancies between ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggesting that the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity of tropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reduced by 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates of return values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These direct return estimates compare very well with Ge...

Breivik, yvind; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Analysis of gas deliverability curves for predicting future well performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Darcy flow) Forecast of Rate vs. Time for Well A (Pipeline pressure = 200 psia) Forecast of Cum. Prod. vs. Time for Well A (Pipeline pressure = ZOO psia) Forecast of Rate v s. Time for Well 8 (Pipeline pressure = 1, 000 psia) Forecast of Cum. Prod. vs.... Time for Well 8 (Pipeline pressure = 1, 000 psia) 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 63 64 65 66 Figure LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) page 39 Forecast of Rate vs. Time for Well C (Pipeline pressure = 1, 000 psia) 40 Forecast of Cum. Prod. vs. Time...

Corbett, Thomas Gary

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

496

Measuring baryon acoustic oscillations with future SKA surveys  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The imprint of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in large-scale structure can be used as a standard ruler for mapping out the cosmic expansion history, and hence for testing cosmological models. In this article we briefly describe the scientific background to the BAO technique, and forecast the potential of the Phase 1 and 2 SKA telescopes to perform BAO surveys using both galaxy catalogues and intensity mapping, assessing their competitiveness with current and future optical galaxy surveys. We find that a 25,000 sq. deg. intensity mapping survey on a Phase 1 array will preferentially constrain the radial BAO, providing a highly competitive 2% constraint on the expansion rate at z ~ 2. A 30,000 sq. deg. galaxy redshift survey on SKA2 will outperform all other planned experiments for z < 1.4.

Bull, Philip; Raccanelli, Alvise; Blake, Chris; Ferreira, Pedro G; Santos, Mario G; Schwarz, Dominik J

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

The Value of Economic Reality: Applying Economic Value Added.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The concept of Economic Value Added (EVA) is a revolutionary way to measure the value of a business. In its simplest form, EVA is a (more)

Phillips, David M

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Bioenergy: America's Energy Future  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

2014-08-12T23:59:59.000Z

499

Bioenergy: America's Energy Future  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Bioenergy: America's Energy Future is a short documentary film showcasing examples of bioenergy innovations across the biomass supply chain and the United States. The film highlights a few stories of individuals and companies who are passionate about achieving the promise of biofuels and addressing the challenges of developing a thriving bioeconomy. This outreach product supports media initiatives to expand the public's understanding of the bioenergy industry and sustainable transportation and was developed by the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Green Focus Films, and BCS, Incorporated.

Nelson, Bruce; Volz, Sara; Male, Johnathan; Wolfson, Johnathan; Pray, Todd; Mayfield, Stephen; Atherton, Scott; Weaver, Brandon

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

500

The Future of Bioethics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Brody calls for a revolution in "future bioethics." He argues persuasively that "we need to understand how certain facts, issues, and questions turn invisible to us, depending on where we happen to be placed in a hierarchy of power" (italics in the original). According to Brody, "feminism teaches bioethics... Since the inception of bioethics as a discipline almost 40 years ago, its scholars and practitioners have devoted much of their time and attention to two sets of issues namely, ethical quandaries posed by medical treatment, particularly end-of-life care,...

Marks J.H.

2009-07-30T23:59:59.000Z