National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecasted population growth

  1. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  2. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  3. Forecasting the Growth of Green Power Markets in the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wiser, R.; Bolinger, M.; Holt, E.; Swezey, B.

    2001-10-31

    In this report, we quantify the potential size and impact of the green power market in the United States, and identify features of the market that will most affect its ultimate growth trajectory.

  4. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  5. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  6. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  7. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  8. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  11. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  13. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  14. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  15. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  16. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  17. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  18. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  19. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  20. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  1. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  2. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  3. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  5. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  6. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  7. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  8. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  9. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  10. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  11. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  12. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  13. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  14. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  15. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  16. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  17. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  18. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  19. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  20. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  1. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  2. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  3. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  4. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  6. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  7. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  8. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  11. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  13. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  15. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  16. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  17. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  18. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  19. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  20. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  3. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  4. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  5. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  6. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  7. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  8. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  9. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  11. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  12. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially neededmore » immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.« less

  13. Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balatsky, Alexander V.; Balatsky, Galina I.; Borysov, Stanislav S.

    2015-03-20

    The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

  14. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  15. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  16. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  17. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  18. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  19. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  20. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  1. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  3. Energy demand and population changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, E.L.; Edmonds, J.A.

    1980-12-01

    Since World War II, US energy demand has grown more rapidly than population, so that per capita consumption of energy was about 60% higher in 1978 than in 1947. Population growth and the expansion of per capita real incomes have led to a greater use of energy. The aging of the US population is expected to increase per capita energy consumption, despite the increase in the proportion of persons over 65, who consume less energy than employed persons. The sharp decline in the population under 18 has led to an expansion in the relative proportion of population in the prime-labor-force age groups. Employed persons are heavy users of energy. The growth of the work force and GNP is largely attributable to the growing participation of females. Another important consequence of female employment is the growth in ownership of personal automobiles. A third factor pushing up labor-force growth is the steady influx of illegal aliens.

  4. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  6. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  7. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  8. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  9. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  13. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  15. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  16. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  19. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  20. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  1. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  2. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  3. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  4. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  5. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  6. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  7. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  8. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  9. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  10. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  11. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  12. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  13. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  14. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  15. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  17. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  19. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  20. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  1. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  2. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  3. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  6. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  7. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  8. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  9. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  11. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  13. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  14. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  15. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  17. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  20. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  1. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  2. Residential Electricity Demand in China -- Can Efficiency Reverse the Growth?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.; Zhou, Nan

    2009-05-18

    The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic growth that China has experienced is not expected to slow down significantly in the long term, which implies continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper draws on the extensive expertise from the China Energy Group at LBNL on forecasting energy consumption in China, but adds to it by exploring the dynamics of demand growth for electricity in the residential sector -- and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling, in combination with historical trends in China. The products considered (refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, washing machines, lighting, standby power, space heaters, and water heating) account for 90percent of household electricity consumption in China. Using this method, we determine the trend and dynamics of demandgrowth and its dependence on macroeconomic drivers at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, we present scenarios for reducing residential consumption through efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, thus allowing for a technologically realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities specifically in the Chinese context.

  3. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  4. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  5. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  7. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  8. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  9. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  10. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  13. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  14. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  15. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  16. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  17. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  18. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    growth, Organization of Petroleum ... Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 46 (2003) pp. 52 - 71. Ogawa, ... volatility, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. (2005). ...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  20. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  1. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  2. THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY: PROSPECTS FOR RESOLVED STELLAR POPULATIONS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rossetto, Bruno M.; Santiago, Baslio X.; Girardi, Lo; Camargo, Julio I. B.; Balbinot, Eduardo; da Costa, Luiz N.; Yanny, Brian; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Makler, Martin; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; Pellegrini, Paulo S.; Ramos, Beatriz; de Simoni, Fernando; Armstrong, R.; Bertin, E.; Desai, S.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lin, H.; Mohr, J. J.; Tucker, D. L.

    2011-06-01

    Wide angle and deep surveys, regardless of their primary purpose, always sample a large number of stars in the Galaxy and in its satellite system. We here make a forecast of the expected stellar sample resulting from the Dark Energy Survey and the perspectives that it will open for studies of Galactic structure and resolved stellar populations in general. An estimated 1.2 x 108 stars will be sampled in DES grizY filters in the southern equatorial hemisphere. This roughly corresponds to 20% of all DES sources. Most of these stars belong to the stellar thick disk and halo of the Galaxy.

  3. THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY: PROSPECTS FOR RESOLVED STELLAR POPULATIONS

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rossetto, Bruno M.; Santiago, Baslio X.; Girardi, Lo; Camargo, Julio I. B.; Balbinot, Eduardo; da Costa, Luiz N.; Yanny, Brian; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Makler, Martin; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; et al

    2011-06-01

    Wide angle and deep surveys, regardless of their primary purpose, always sample a large number of stars in the Galaxy and in its satellite system. We here make a forecast of the expected stellar sample resulting from the Dark Energy Survey and the perspectives that it will open for studies of Galactic structure and resolved stellar populations in general. An estimated 1.2 x 108 stars will be sampled in DES grizY filters in the southern equatorial hemisphere. This roughly corresponds to 20% of all DES sources. Most of these stars belong to the stellar thick disk and halo of themoreGalaxy.less

  4. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  5. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  6. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  7. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  8. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  9. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  10. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  11. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  12. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  13. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  14. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  15. Outlook for Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth in 2008-2009 (Released in the STEO February 2008)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2008-01-01

    In 2008-2009, the Energy Information Administration expects that non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) petroleum supply growth will surpass that in recent years because of the large number of new oil projects scheduled to come online during the forecast period.

  16. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  17. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  18. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  19. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  20. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  1. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  2. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  3. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  4. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  5. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  7. Microbial Populations in CAVES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Microbial Populations in CAVES: A Comparison of Sulfur Biosignatures Annette Summers Engel, Department of Geology and Geophysics Compare Frasassi (Italy) and Lower Kane (Wyoming) CAVES

  8. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  9. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  10. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  11. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  12. Parallel grid population

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wald, Ingo; Ize, Santiago

    2015-07-28

    Parallel population of a grid with a plurality of objects using a plurality of processors. One example embodiment is a method for parallel population of a grid with a plurality of objects using a plurality of processors. The method includes a first act of dividing a grid into n distinct grid portions, where n is the number of processors available for populating the grid. The method also includes acts of dividing a plurality of objects into n distinct sets of objects, assigning a distinct set of objects to each processor such that each processor determines by which distinct grid portion(s) each object in its distinct set of objects is at least partially bounded, and assigning a distinct grid portion to each processor such that each processor populates its distinct grid portion with any objects that were previously determined to be at least partially bounded by its distinct grid portion.

  13. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  14. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  15. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  16. Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

    2011-12-01

    Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present), fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.

  17. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  18. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  19. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  20. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  1. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  2. Perspective: The Climate-Population-Infrastructure Modeling and Simulation Fertile Area for New Research

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, Melissa R; Fernandez, Steven J; Walker, Kimberly A; Fu, Joshua S

    2014-01-01

    Managing the risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to energy production and delivery is a challenge to communities worldwide. As climate conditions change, populations will shift, and demand will re-locate; and networked infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers, and, hopefully, minimize vulnerability to natural disaster. Climate effects such as sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, force populations to move locations. Displaced population creates new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that attracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. Infrastructures and their interdependencies will change in reaction to climate drivers as the networks expand into new population areas and as portions of the networks are abandoned as people leave. Thus, infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Forecasting the location of these vulnerabilities by combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for defining these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. By combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory it has been only recently possible to examine electricity demand response to increased climactic temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. These emerging results suggest a research agenda of coupling these disparate modelling approaches to understand the implications of climate change for protecting the nation s critical infrastructure.

  3. Population attribute compression

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    White, James M. (Los Alamos, NM); Faber, Vance (Los Alamos, NM); Saltzman, Jeffrey S. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1995-01-01

    An image population having a large number of attributes is processed to form a display population with a predetermined smaller number of attributes that represent the larger number of attributes. In a particular application, the color values in an image are compressed for storage in a discrete look-up table (LUT). Color space containing the LUT color values is successively subdivided into smaller volumes until a plurality of volumes are formed, each having no more than a preselected maximum number of color values. Image pixel color values can then be rapidly placed in a volume with only a relatively few LUT values from which a nearest neighbor is selected. Image color values are assigned 8 bit pointers to their closest LUT value whereby data processing requires only the 8 bit pointer value to provide 24 bit color values from the LUT.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  6. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  7. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  8. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  9. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  10. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nations low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  11. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  12. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  13. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  14. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  15. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  16. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  17. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  18. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  19. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  20. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  1. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  2. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  4. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  5. Feral Cat Population Decline

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Feral Cat Population Decline Fun in the Sun Control methods lead to lower number of strays. New 3D technology aids in retrofit, remodel projects. Picnic, BBQ attracts hundreds of NvE employees. In December 2015, the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) will celebrate a storied 65-year history of atomic testing and homeland security support. OneVoice is paying tribute to the men and women who supported that mission with stories each month that look back at special events. See page 4. See page 7.

  6. POPULATION III HYPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smidt, Joseph; Whalen, Daniel J. [T-2, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Wiggins, Brandon K. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602 (United States); Even, Wesley; Fryer, Chris L. [CCS-2, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Johnson, Jarrett L., E-mail: dwhalen1999@gmail.com [XTD-PRI, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

    2014-12-20

    Population III supernovae have been of growing interest of late for their potential to directly probe the properties of the first stars, particularly the most energetic events that are visible near the edge of the observable universe. Until now, hypernovae, the unusually energetic Type Ib/c supernovae that are sometimes associated with gamma-ray bursts, have been overlooked as cosmic beacons at the highest redshifts. In this, the latest of a series of studies on Population III supernovae, we present numerical simulations of 25-50 M {sub ?} hypernovae and their light curves done with the Los Alamos RAGE and SPECTRUM codes. We find that they will be visible at z = 10-15 to the James Webb Space Telescope and z = 4-5 to the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope, tracing star formation rates in the first galaxies and at the end of cosmological reionization. If, however, the hypernova crashes into a dense shell ejected by its progenitor, it is expected that a superluminous event will occur that may be seen at z ? 20 in the first generation of stars.

  7. Population Density by County, 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2009-01-18

    Map showing a United States profile including race, population by sex and age, housing tenure, and more.

  8. Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2015-09-14

    Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

  9. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  10. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  11. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  12. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  14. Growth, microstructure, and luminescent

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    In and Ga adatoms, being more mobile, preferentially attach to steps. Step-flow growth prop- agates the InGa rich superstep and results in the creation of long continuous...

  15. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  16. FGF growth factor analogs

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zamora, Paul O.; Pena, Louis A.; Lin, Xinhua; Takahashi, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-24

    The present invention provides a fibroblast growth factor heparin-binding analog of the formula: ##STR00001## where R.sub.1, R.sub.2, R.sub.3, R.sub.4, R.sub.5, X, Y and Z are as defined, pharmaceutical compositions, coating compositions and medical devices including the fibroblast growth factor heparin-binding analog of the foregoing formula, and methods and uses thereof.

  17. Smart Cities - Smart Growth

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Smart Cities - Smart Growth The United States Secretaries of Commerce will co-lead a Business Development Mission to China from April 12-17, 2015. This mission will promote U.S. clean technology products and services in the areas of green building/construction, energy efficiency, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and environmental technologies in support of the Smart Cities-Smart Growth theme. On November 12, President Obama and President Xi jointly announced the two countries'

  18. Regional growth and energy supply: Is there an energy security issue?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roop, J.M.; Freund, K.A.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Johnson, A.K.; Paananen, O.H.; Woodruff, M.G.

    1996-12-01

    This study examines how the growth of the developing world might affect energy markets in the future. Based on recent growth trends, world energy demand could reasonably be expected to grow from about 350 Exajoules (EJ: 1.0E18=0.95 Quad) to nearly 1025 EJ by the year 2020, nearly 3x current consumption estimates. Introduction of more energy-efficient technologies could reduce this growth by about 17% to 830 EJ. But one cannot rely exclusively on current trends to forecast future energy demand. The growth of the developing world will interact with supply to affect prices, which in turn will mitigate the growth of demand, and growth rates of energy use will be much more modes. Under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand will grow to 835 EJ by 2020, and this could be reduced a further 15% to 714 EJ through the adoption of more energy efficient technologies. Fuel prices based on model results are analyzed. Energy security implications of rapid growth in the developing world are considered and found to be of likely little significance.

  19. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  20. Controlling Condensation and Frost Growth with Chemical Micropatterns

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Boreyko, Jonathan; Hansen, Ryan; Murphy, Kevin R; Nath, Saurabh; Retterer, Scott T; Collier, Pat

    2016-01-01

    Frost growth on chilled hydrophobic surfaces is an inter-droplet phenomenon, where frozen droplets harvest water from supercooled liquid droplets to grow ice bridges that propagate across the surface in a chain reaction. To date, no surface has been able to passively prevent the in-plane growth of frost across the population of supercooled condensate. Here, we demonstrate that when the nucleation sites for supercooled condensate are properly controlled with chemical micropatterns, the speed of frost growth can be slowed and even halted entirely. This stoppage of frost growth is attributed to the large interdroplet separation between condensate upon the onset ofmore »freezing, which was controlled by the pitch of the chemical patterns and by deliberately triggering an early freezing event. These findings reveal that frost growth can be passively suppressed by designing surfaces to spatially control nucleation sites and/or temporally control the onset of freezing events.« less

  1. Plant growth promoting rhizobacterium

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Doktycz, Mitchel John; Pelletier, Dale A.; Schadt, Christopher Warren; Tuskan, Gerald A.; Weston, David

    2015-08-11

    The present invention is directed to the Pseudomonas fluorescens strain GM30 deposited under ATCC Accession No. PTA-13340, compositions containing the GM30 strain, and methods of using the GM30 strain to enhance plant growth and/or enhance plant resistance to pathogens.

  2. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  3. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  4. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  5. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  6. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  7. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Pub

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Economic growth The AEO economic forecasts are trend projections, with no major shocks assumed and with potential growth determined by the economy's supply capability. Growth in aggregate supply depends on increases in the labor force, growth of capital stocks, and improvements in productivity. Long-term demand growth depends on labor force growth, income growth, and population growth. The AEO2015 Reference case uses the U.S. Census Bureau's December 2012 middle population projection: U.S.

  9. Patent: Conditioning biomass for microbial growth | DOEpatents

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Conditioning biomass for microbial growth Citation Details Title: Conditioning biomass for microbial growth

  10. Electrochemical Solution Growth: Gallium Nitride Crystal Growth - Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Innovation Portal Vehicles and Fuels Vehicles and Fuels Building Energy Efficiency Building Energy Efficiency Find More Like This Return to Search Electrochemical Solution Growth: Gallium Nitride Crystal Growth Sandia National Laboratories Contact SNL About This Technology Publications: PDF Document Publication Market Sheet (886 KB) Technology Marketing SummarySandia National Laboratories has developed a disruptive new crystal growth technology, called Electrochemical Solution Growth (ESG).

  11. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  12. Growth in Solar Means Growth in Ohio | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Growth in Solar Means Growth in Ohio Growth in Solar Means Growth in Ohio October 6, 2010 - 2:26pm Addthis Lorelei Laird Writer, Energy Empowers Editor's Note: Yesterday Secretary Chu announced that solar panels and a solar hot water heater will be added to the White House by the end of next spring. This entry is cross-posted from the Energy Empowers blog and deals with how the continued growth of solar power is not only a boon for industry, but for local economies as well. The solar industry

  13. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Eddie A; Huynh, Timmy N; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2015-01-01

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

  14. Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Eddie A; Huynh, Timmy N; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2015-01-01

    Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  17. Population Sensitivity Evaluation of Two Candidate Locations...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Locations for Possible Small Modular Reactor Siting This report documents population density studies of selected sites in the Hampton Roads, Virginia area. PDF icon Population...

  18. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  19. Global Green Growth Institute | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth Institute Redirect page Jump to: navigation, search REDIRECT Green Growth Strategy Support Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleGlobalGreenGrowthIn...

  20. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  1. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  2. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  3. Joint Analysis of Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing and Galaxy Clustering: Methodology and Forecasts for DES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Park, Y.

    2015-07-19

    The joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering is a promising method for inferring the growth function of large scale structure. Our analysis will be carried out on data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), with its measurements of both the distribution of galaxies and the tangential shears of background galaxies induced by these foreground lenses. We develop a practical approach to modeling the assumptions and systematic effects affecting small scale lensing, which provides halo masses, and large scale galaxy clustering. Introducing parameters that characterize the halo occupation distribution (HOD), photometric redshift uncertainties, and shear measurement errors, we study how external priors on different subsets of these parameters affect our growth constraints. Degeneracies within the HOD model, as well as between the HOD and the growth function, are identified as the dominant source of complication, with other systematic effects sub-dominant. The impact of HOD parameters and their degeneracies necessitate the detailed joint modeling of the galaxy sample that we employ. Finally, we conclude that DES data will provide powerful constraints on the evolution of structure growth in the universe, conservatively/optimistically constraining the growth function to 7.9%/4.8% with its first-year data that covered over 1000 square degrees, and to 3.9%/2.3% with its full five-year data that will survey 5000 square degrees, including both statistical and systematic uncertainties.

  4. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  5. EO 12898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations (1994) EO 12898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations (1994) To ...

  6. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  7. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  8. Isotropic Monte Carlo Grain Growth

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-04-25

    IMCGG performs Monte Carlo simulations of normal grain growth in metals on a hexagonal grid in two dimensions with periodic boundary conditions. This may be performed with either an isotropic or a misorientation - and incliantion-dependent grain boundary energy.

  9. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  10. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  11. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  13. Local population impacts of geothermal energy development in the Geysers: Calistoga region

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haven, K.F.; Berg, V.; Ladson, Y.W.

    1980-09-01

    The country-level population increase implications of two long-term geothermal development scenarios for the Geysers region in California are addressed. This region is defined to include the counties of Lake, Sonoma, Mendocino and Napa, all four in northern California. The development scenarios include two components: development for electrical energy production and direct use applications. Electrical production scenarios are derived by incorporating current development patterns into previous development scenarios by both industry and research organizations. The scenarios are made county-specific, specific to the type of geothermal system constructed, and are projected through the year 2000. Separate high growth rate and low growth rate scenarios are developed, based on a set of specified assumptions. Direct use scenarios are estimated from the nature of the available resource, existing local economic and demographic patterns, and available experience with various separate direct use options. From the composite development scenarios, required numbers of direct and indirect employees and the resultant in-migration patterns are estimated. In-migration patterns are compared to current county level population and ongoing trends in the county population change for each of the four counties. From this comparison, conclusions are drawn concerning the contributions of geothermal resource development to future population levels and the significance of geothermally induced population increase from a county planning perspective.

  14. ORISE Resources: Population Monitoring in Radiation Emergencies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Population Monitoring in Radiation Emergencies: A Guide for State and Local Health Planners A newly released guide from the Radiation Studies Branch (RSB) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sets the standard for population monitoring after a radiation emergency. The second edition of Population Monitoring in Radiation Emergencies: A Guide for State and Local Public Health Planners was released in April and presented at the National Association of County and City Health

  15. Digital electronic bone growth stimulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kronberg, J.W.

    1995-05-09

    A device is described for stimulating bone tissue by applying a low level alternating current signal directly to the patient`s skin. A crystal oscillator, a binary divider chain and digital logic gates are used to generate the desired waveforms that reproduce the natural electrical characteristics found in bone tissue needed for stimulating bone growth and treating osteoporosis. The device, powered by a battery, contains a switch allowing selection of the correct waveform for bone growth stimulation or osteoporosis treatment so that, when attached to the skin of the patient using standard skin contact electrodes, the correct signal is communicated to the underlying bone structures. 5 figs.

  16. Digital electronic bone growth stimulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kronberg, James W.

    1995-01-01

    A device for stimulating bone tissue by applying a low level alternating current signal directly to the patient's skin. A crystal oscillator, a binary divider chain and digital logic gates are used to generate the desired waveforms that reproduce the natural electrical characteristics found in bone tissue needed for stimulating bone growth and treating osteoporosis. The device, powered by a battery, contains a switch allowing selection of the correct waveform for bone growth stimulation or osteoporosis treatment so that, when attached to the skin of the patient using standard skin contact electrodes, the correct signal is communicated to the underlying bone structures.

  17. Nonlinear structural crack growth monitoring

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Welch, Donald E. (Oak Ridge, TN); Hively, Lee M. (Philadelphia, TN); Holdaway, Ray F. (Clinton, TN)

    2002-01-01

    A method and apparatus are provided for the detection, through nonlinear manipulation of data, of an indicator of imminent failure due to crack growth in structural elements. The method is a process of determining energy consumption due to crack growth and correlating the energy consumption with physical phenomena indicative of a failure event. The apparatus includes sensors for sensing physical data factors, processors or the like for computing a relationship between the physical data factors and phenomena indicative of the failure event, and apparatus for providing notification of the characteristics and extent of such phenomena.

  18. Fostering Growth | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs » Fostering Growth Fostering Growth The solar energy industry in the United States is growing rapidly as the price of solar panels has decreased over the past decade. U.S. solar installations doubled from 2009 to 2010, and the domestic market was worth $6 billion in 2010. Despite this upward trend, solar energy is only 1% of the current U.S. electricity supply. The SunShot Vision Study says that cost-competitive solar has an estimated potential to supply roughly 14% of domestic

  19. ORISE Resources: Population Monitoring in Radiation Emergencies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Population Monitoring in Radiation Emergencies: A Guide for State and Local Health Planners A newly released guide from the Radiation Studies Branch (RSB) of the Centers for...

  20. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  1. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  2. Direct flow crystal growth system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Montgomery, Kenneth E. (Tracy, CA); Milanovich, Fred P. (Lafayette, CA)

    1992-01-01

    A crystal is grown in a constantly filtered solution which is flowed directly into the growing face of a crystal. In a continuous flow system, solution at its saturation temperature is removed from a crystal growth tank, heated above its saturation temperature, filtered, cooled back to its saturation temperature, and returned to the tank.

  3. 2015 NREL Industry Growth Forum

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    During NREL’s 2015 Industry Growth Forum, 30 competitively selected clean energy startups will pitch their businesses to investors and compete to win the NREL Best Venture Award.  One of the...

  4. SBA Growth Accelerator Fund Competition

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is accepting applications for the Growth Accelerator Fund Competition to identify the nation's innovative accelerators and similar organizations and award them cash prizes they may use to fund their operations costs and allow them to bring startup competitions to scale and new ideas to life.

  5. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  6. Covered Sites/Populations | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Covered Sites/Populations Covered Sites/Populations Construction Worker Screening Projects Construction Worker Projects, Former Worker Medical Screening Program (FWP) Production Worker Screening Projects Production Worker Projects, Former Worker Medical Screening Program (FWP) National Supplemental Screening Program National Supplemental Screening Program Beryllium Vendor Screening Program Defunct Beryllium Vendor Screening Program

  7. Special Population Planner for Emergency Management

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-04-17

    The SPP is a tool for use by emergency management agencies in creating plans for possible events requiring their attention. It incorporates extensive data including those on special needs populations so that this segment of the population will be considered in general plans.

  8. Energy Systems and Population Health

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ezzati, Majid; Bailis, Rob; Kammen, Daniel M.; Holloway, Tracey; Price, Lynn; Cifuentes, Luis A.; Barnes, Brendon; Chaurey, Akanksha; Dhanapala, Kiran N.

    2004-04-12

    It is well-documented that energy and energy systems have a central role in social and economic development and human welfare at all scales, from household and community to regional and national (41). Among its various welfare effects, energy is closely linked with people s health. Some of the effects of energy on health and welfare are direct. With abundant energy, more food or more frequent meals can be prepared; food can be refrigerated, increasing the types of food items that are consumed and reducing food contamination; water pumps can provide more water and eliminate the need for water storage leading to contamination or increased exposure to disease vectors such as mosquitoes or snails; water can be disinfected by boiling or using other technologies such as radiation. Other effects of energy on public health are mediated through more proximal determinants of health and disease. Abundant energy can lead to increased irrigation, agricultural productivity, and access to food and nutrition; access to energy can also increase small-scale income generation such as processing of agricultural commodities (e.g., producing refined oil from oil seeds, roasting coffee, drying and preserving fruits and meats) and production of crafts; ability to control lighting and heating allows education or economic activities to be shielded from daily or seasonal environmental constraints such as light, temperature, rainfall, or wind; time and other economic resources spent on collecting and/or transporting fuels can be used for other household needs if access to energy is facilitated; energy availability for transportation increases access to health and education facilities and allow increased economic activity by facilitating the transportation of goods and services to and from markets; energy for telecommunication technology (radio, television, telephone, or internet) provides increased access to information useful for health, education, or economic purposes; provision of energy to rural and urban health facilities allows increased delivery and coverage of 3 various health services and interventions such as tests and treatments, better storage of medicine and vaccines, disinfection of medical equipment by boiling or radiation, and more frequent and efficient health system encounters through mobile clinics or longer working hours; and so on. In fact, while the dominant view of development-energy-health linkages has been that improvements in energy and health are outcomes of the socioeconomic development process (e.g., the ''energy ladder'' framework discussed below), it has even been argued that access to higher quality energy sources and technologies can initiate a chain of demographic, health, and development outcomes by changing the household structure and socioeconomic relationships. For example, in addition to increased opportunities for food and income production, reduced infant mortality as a result of transition to cleaner fuels or increased coverage of vaccination with availability of refrigerators in rural clinics may initiate a process of ''demographic transition'' to low-mortality and low-fertility populations (14). Such a transition has historically been followed with further improvements in maternal and child health and increased female participation in the labor markets and other economic activities.

  9. EO 12898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON February 11, 1994 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF ALL DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES SUBJECT: Executive Order on Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low- Income Populations Today I have issued an Executive Order on Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. That order is designed to focus Federal attention on the environmental and human health conditions in minority communities and

  10. Method for crystal growth control

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yates, Douglas A. (Burlington, MA); Hatch, Arthur E. (Waltham, MA); Goldsmith, Jeff M. (Medford, MA)

    1981-01-01

    The growth of a crystalline body of a selected material is controlled so that the body has a selected cross-sectional shape. The apparatus is of the type which includes the structure normally employed in known capillary die devices as well as means for observing at least the portion of the surfaces of the growing crystalline body and the meniscus (of melt material from which the body is being pulled) including the solid/liquid/vapor junction in a direction substantially perpendicular to the meniscus surface formed at the junction when the growth of the crystalline body is under steady state conditions. The cross-sectional size of the growing crystalline body can be controlled by determining which points exhibit a sharp change in the amount of reflected radiation of a preselected wavelength and controlling the speed at which the body is being pulled or the temperature of the growth pool of melt so as to maintain those points exhibiting a sharp change at a preselected spatial position relative to a predetermined reference position. The improvement comprises reference object means positioned near the solid/liquid/vapor junction and capable of being observed by the means for observing so as to define said reference position so that the problems associated with convection current jitter are overcome.

  11. Hanford Site Regional Population - 2010 Census

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hamilton, Erin L.; Snyder, Sandra F.

    2011-08-12

    The U.S. Department of Energy conducts radiological operations in south-central Washington State. Population dose estimates must be performed to provide a measure of the impact from site radiological releases. Results of the U.S. 2010 Census were used to determine counts and distributions for the residential population located within 50-miles of several operating areas of the Hanford Site. Year 2010 was the first census year that a 50-mile population of a Hanford Site operational area exceeded the half-million mark.

  12. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A; Urban, Marie L; Rose, Amy N; Coleman, Phil R; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  13. New Partners for Smart Growth Conference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The New Partners for Smart Growth Conference is the nation's largest smart growth and sustainability conference. The three-day conference is themed, "Practical Tools and Innovative Strategies for Creating Great Communities."

  14. Method for spatially distributing a population

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bright, Edward A [Knoxville, TN; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [Knoxville, TN; Coleman, Phillip R [Knoxville, TN; Dobson, Jerome E [Lawrence, KS

    2007-07-24

    A process for spatially distributing a population count within a geographically defined area can include the steps of logically correlating land usages apparent from a geographically defined area to geospatial features in the geographically defined area and allocating portions of the population count to regions of the geographically defined area having the land usages, according to the logical correlation. The process can also include weighing the logical correlation for determining the allocation of portions of the population count and storing the allocated portions within a searchable data store. The logically correlating step can include the step of logically correlating time-based land usages to geospatial features of the geographically defined area. The process can also include obtaining a population count for the geographically defined area, organizing the geographically defined area into a plurality of sectors, and verifying the allocated portions according to direct observation.

  15. Fact #661: February 7, 2011 Population Density

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The density of the population in the U.S., measured as the number of people per square mile, affects the way goods and people are transported. The newly released 2010 Census data show that, on a...

  16. Modeling delamination growth in composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reedy, E.D. Jr.; Mello, F.J.

    1996-12-01

    A method for modeling the initiation and growth of discrete delaminations in shell-like composite structures is presented. The laminate is divided into two or more sublaminates, with each sublaminate modeled with four-noded quadrilateral shell elements. A special, eight-noded hex constraint element connects opposing sublaminate shell elements. It supplies the nodal forces and moments needed to make the two opposing shell elements act as a single shell element until a prescribed failure criterion is satisfied. Once the failure criterion is attained, the connection is broken, creating or growing a discrete delamination. This approach has been implemented in a 3D finite element code. This code uses explicit time integration, and can analyze shell-like structures subjected to large deformations and complex contact conditions. The shell elements can use existing composite material models that include in-plane laminate failure modes. This analysis capability was developed to perform crashworthiness studies of composite structures, and is useful whenever there is a need to estimate peak loads, energy absorption, or the final shape of a highly deformed composite structure. This paper describes the eight-noded hex constraint element used to model the initiation and growth of a delamination, and discusses associated implementation issues. Particular attention is focused on the delamination growth criterion, and it is verified that calculated results do not depend on element size. In addition, results for double cantilever beam and end notched flexure specimens are presented and compared to measured data to assess the ability of the present approach to model a growing delamination.

  17. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  18. Plenum type crystal growth process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Montgomery, Kenneth E. (Tracy, CA)

    1992-01-01

    Crystals are grown in a tank which is divided by a baffle into a crystal growth region above the baffle and a plenum region below the baffle. A turbine blade or stirring wheel is positioned in a turbine tube which extends through the baffle to generate a flow of solution from the crystal growing region to the plenum region. The solution is pressurized as it flows into the plenum region. The pressurized solution flows back to the crystal growing region through return flow tubes extending through the baffle. Growing crystals are positioned near the ends of the return flow tubes to receive a direct flow of solution.

  19. Population viability analysis of the Endangered shortnose sturgeon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jager, Yetta; Bevelhimer, Mark S; Peterson, Douglas L.

    2011-07-01

    This study used population viability analysis (PVA) to partition the influences of potential threats to the endangered shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum). A workshop brought together experts to help identify potential threats including groundwater withdrawal, poor water quality, saltwater intrusion, mercury effects, harvest as by-catch, and sedimentation of spawning habitat. During the course of the project, we eliminated some threats and added new ones. Groundwater withdrawal was dismissed after a study failed to identify connection with groundwater and the majority of pumping is from a confined aquifer. We also eliminated activities on Fort Stewart as influences on spawning habitat because any successful spawning must occur upstream of Fort Stewart. We added climate change to the list of threats based on our assessment of temperature effects and expectations of sea-level rise. Our study highlighted the role of populations in nearby rivers in providing metapopulation support, raising the concern that the population in the Ogeechee River acts as a demographic sink. As part of this study, we carried out a field sampling study to analyze effects of training activities on headwater streams. We developed a new methodology for sampling design as part of this effort and used a mixed-modeling approach to identify relationships between land cover-land use, including those associated with military training activity and water quality. We found that tank training was associated with higher suspended sediment and equipment training was associated with higher organic carbon) and water quality. We detected effects of training on suspended sediment and organic carbon. We also carried out a field sampling effort in the Canoochee and Ogeechee Rivers. In the Ogeechee River, we found that dissolved oxygen in 40% of measurements during summer were below 4 mg L-1. To evaluate mercury as a potential threat, we developed a mercury uptake model and analyzed mercury levels in amphipod prey and sturgeon eggs. These did not exceed EPA guidelines. Finally, we developed a PVA model that including linkages between shortnose sturgeon growth, reproduction, and survival and each remaining threat; All three had significant influences. Preliminary simulations suggest that elevated temperatures under future climate will extirpate this population and add support to the hypothesis that this species requires access to spawning habitat far upstream to persist.

  20. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  1. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  2. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  3. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  4. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  5. Apparatus for monitoring crystal growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sachs, Emanual M. (Watertown, MA)

    1981-01-01

    A system and method are disclosed for monitoring the growth of a crystalline body from a liquid meniscus in a furnace. The system provides an improved human/machine interface so as to reduce operator stress, strain and fatigue while improving the conditions for observation and control of the growing process. The system comprises suitable optics for forming an image of the meniscus and body wherein the image is anamorphic so that the entire meniscus can be viewed with good resolution in both the width and height dimensions. The system also comprises a video display for displaying the anamorphic image. The video display includes means for enhancing the contrast between any two contrasting points in the image. The video display also comprises a signal averager for averaging the intensity of at least one preselected portions of the image. The value of the average intensity, can in turn be utilized to control the growth of the body. The system and method are also capable of observing and monitoring multiple processes.

  6. Method of monitoring crystal growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sachs, Emanual M. (Watertown, MA)

    1982-01-01

    A system and method are disclosed for monitoring the growth of a crystalline body from a liquid meniscus in a furnace. The system provides an improved human/machine interface so as to reduce operator stress, strain and fatigue while improving the conditions for observation and control of the growing process. The system comprises suitable optics for forming an image of the meniscus and body wherein the image is anamorphic so that the entire meniscus can be viewed with good resolution in both the width and height dimensions. The system also comprises a video display for displaying the anamorphic image. The video display includes means for enhancing the contrast between any two contrasting points in the image. The video display also comprises a signal averager for averaging the intensity of at least one preselected portions of the image. The value of the average intensity, can in turn be utilized to control the growth of the body. The system and method are also capable of observing and monitoring multiple processes.

  7. Korea's Green Growth Strategy: Mitigating Climate Change and...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Korea's Green Growth Strategy: Mitigating Climate Change and Developing New Growth Engines Jump to: navigation, search Name Korea's Green Growth Strategy: Mitigating Climate Change...

  8. Well having inhibited microbial growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lee, Brady D.; Dooley, Kirk J.

    2006-08-15

    The invention includes methods of inhibiting microbial growth in a well. A packing material containing a mixture of a first material and an antimicrobial agent is provided to at least partially fill a well bore. One or more access tubes are provided in an annular space around a casing within the well bore. The access tubes have a first terminal opening located at or above a ground surface and have a length that extends from the first terminal opening at least part of the depth of the well bore. The access tubes have a second terminal opening located within the well bore. An antimicrobial material is supplied into the well bore through the first terminal opening of the access tubes. The invention also includes well constructs.

  9. Controlled growth of semiconductor crystals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bourret-Courchesne, E.D.

    1992-07-21

    A method is disclosed for growth of III-V, II-VI and related semiconductor single crystals that suppresses random nucleation and sticking of the semiconductor melt at the crucible walls. Small pieces of an oxide of boron B[sub x]O[sub y] are dispersed throughout the comminuted solid semiconductor charge in the crucible, with the oxide of boron preferably having water content of at least 600 ppm. The crucible temperature is first raised to a temperature greater than the melt temperature T[sub m1] of the oxide of boron (T[sub m1]=723 K for boron oxide B[sub 2]O[sub 3]), and the oxide of boron is allowed to melt and form a reasonably uniform liquid layer between the crucible walls and bottom surfaces and the still-solid semiconductor charge. The temperature is then raised to approximately the melt temperature T[sub m2] of the semiconductor charge material, and crystal growth proceeds by a liquid encapsulated, vertical gradient freeze process. About half of the crystals grown have a dislocation density of less than 1000/cm[sup 2]. If the oxide of boron has water content less than 600 ppm, the crucible material should include boron nitride, a layer of the inner surface of the crucible should be oxidized before the oxide of boron in the crucible charge is melted, and the sum of thicknesses of the solid boron oxide layer and liquid boron oxide layer should be at least 50 [mu]m. 7 figs.

  10. Controlled growth of semiconductor crystals

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bourret-Courchesne, Edith D. (Richmond, CA)

    1992-01-01

    A method for growth of III-V, II-VI and related semiconductor single crystals that suppresses random nucleation and sticking of the semiconductor melt at the crucible walls. Small pieces of an oxide of boron B.sub.x O.sub.y are dispersed throughout the comminuted solid semiconductor charge in the crucible, with the oxide of boron preferably having water content of at least 600 ppm. The crucible temperature is first raised to a temperature greater than the melt temperature T.sub.m1 of the oxide of boron (T.sub.m1 =723.degree. K. for boron oxide B.sub.2 O.sub.3), and the oxide of boron is allowed to melt and form a reasonably uniform liquid layer between the crucible walls and bottom surfaces and the still-solid semiconductor charge. The temperature is then raised to approximately the melt temperature T.sub.m2 of the semiconductor charge material, and crystal growth proceeds by a liquid encapsulated, vertical gradient freeze process. About half of the crystals grown have a dislocation density of less than 1000/cm.sup.2. If the oxide of boron has water content less than 600 ppm, the crucible material should include boron nitride, a layer of the inner surface of the crucible should be oxidized before the oxide of boron in the crucible charge is melted, and the sum of thicknesses of the solid boron oxide layer and liquid boron oxide layer should be at least 50 .mu.m.

  11. Femtosecond Population Inversion and Stimulated Emission of Dense...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Femtosecond Population Inversion and Stimulated Emission of Dense Dirac Fermions in Graphene Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Femtosecond Population Inversion and...

  12. EO 12898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    EO 12898: Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations To focus Federal attention on the environmental and human health conditions in minority ...

  13. Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater ...

  14. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  15. Synthetic heparin-binding growth factor analogs

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pena, Louis A.; Zamora, Paul; Lin, Xinhua; Glass, John D.

    2007-01-23

    The invention provides synthetic heparin-binding growth factor analogs having at least one peptide chain that binds a heparin-binding growth factor receptor, covalently bound to a hydrophobic linker, which is in turn covalently bound to a non-signaling peptide that includes a heparin-binding domain. The synthetic heparin-binding growth factor analogs are useful as soluble biologics or as surface coatings for medical devices.

  16. ARM - Lesson Plans: Rate of Coral Growth

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Rate of Coral Growth Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Lesson Plans: Rate of Coral Growth Objective The objective is to understand the fact that the growth of coral depends on water depth and the effect of sea level changes on corals. Materials Each student or group of students

  17. VP 100: Growth in solar means growth in Ohio | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Growth in solar means growth in Ohio VP 100: Growth in solar means growth in Ohio October 6, 2010 - 10:57am Addthis DuPont is betting on major growth in the market for solar energy -- and therefore for its Tedlar film, a durable backing for silicon solar panels. | Photo Courtesy of DuPont DuPont is betting on major growth in the market for solar energy -- and therefore for its Tedlar film, a durable backing for silicon solar panels. | Photo Courtesy of DuPont Lorelei Laird Writer, Energy

  18. "Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    9, 2012, 4:15pm Colloquia MBG Auditorium "Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection", Dr. Bryan Czech, resident, Center for the Advancement of the Steady State...

  19. GROWTH AND ELECTROCHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF CARBON NANOSPIKE...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: GROWTH AND ELECTROCHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF CARBON NANOSPIKE THIN FILM ELECTRODES Authors: Sheridan, Leah B 1 ; Hensley, Dale K 1 ; Lavrik, Nickolay V 1 ; Smith, ...

  20. Sandia Energy - Biomimetic Approach to Nanoparticle Growth

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    biological growth, a new 'Extended LaMer' method for reproducible and predictable synthesis of nanoparticles was developed. Significance and Impact This general approach allows...

  1. Pair instability supernovae of very massive population III stars

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, Ke-Jung; Woosley, Stan; Heger, Alexander; Almgren, Ann; Whalen, Daniel J.

    2014-09-01

    Numerical studies of primordial star formation suggest that the first stars in the universe may have been very massive. Stellar models indicate that non-rotating Population III stars with initial masses of 140-260 M {sub ?} die as highly energetic pair-instability supernovae. We present new two-dimensional simulations of primordial pair-instability supernovae done with the CASTRO code. Our simulations begin at earlier times than previous multidimensional models, at the onset of core contraction, to capture any dynamical instabilities that may be seeded by core contraction and explosive burning. Such instabilities could enhance explosive yields by mixing hot ash with fuel, thereby accelerating nuclear burning, and affect the spectra of the supernova by dredging up heavy elements from greater depths in the star at early times. Our grid of models includes both blue supergiants and red supergiants over the range in progenitor mass expected for these events. We find that fluid instabilities driven by oxygen and helium burning arise at the upper and lower boundaries of the oxygen shell ?20-100 s after core bounce. Instabilities driven by burning freeze out after the SN shock exits the helium core. As the shock later propagates through the hydrogen envelope, a strong reverse shock forms that drives the growth of Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities. In red supergiant progenitors, the amplitudes of these instabilities are sufficient to mix the supernova ejecta.

  2. Digital electronic bone growth stimulator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kronberg, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    The present invention relates to the electrical treatment of biological tissue. In particular, the present invention discloses a device that produces discrete electrical pulse trains for treating osteoporosis and accelerating bone growth. According to its major aspects and broadly stated, the present invention consists of an electrical circuit configuration capable of generating Bassett-type waveforms shown with alternative signals provide for the treatment of either fractured bones or osteoporosis. The signal generator comprises a quartz clock, an oscillator circuit, a binary divider chain, and a plurality of simple, digital logic gates. Signals are delivered efficiently, with little or no distortion, and uniformly distributed throughout the area of injury. Perferably, power is furnished by widely available and inexpensive radio batteries, needing replacement only once in several days. The present invention can be affixed to a medical cast without a great increase in either weight or bulk. Also, the disclosed stimulator can be used to treat osteoporosis or to strengthen a healing bone after the cast has been removed by attaching the device to the patient`s skin or clothing.

  3. Compartmentalized microchannel array for high-throughput analysis of single cell polarized growth and dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Geng, Tao; Bredeweg, Erin L.; Szymanski, Craig J.; Liu, Bingwen; Baker, Scott E.; Orr, Galya; Evans, James E.; Kelly, Ryan T.

    2015-11-04

    Interrogating polarized growth is technologically challenging due to extensive cellular branching and uncontrollable environmental conditions in conventional assays. Here we present a robust and high-performance microfluidic system that enables observations of polarized growth with enhanced temporal and spatial control over prolonged periods. The system has built-in tunability and versatility to accommodate a variety of science applications requiring precisely controlled environments. Using the model filamentous fungus, Neurospora crassa, this microfluidic system enabled direct visualization and analysis of cellular heterogeneity in a clonal fungal cell population, nuclear distribution and dynamics at the subhyphal level, and quantitative dynamics of gene expression with single hyphal compartment resolution in response to carbon source starvation and exchange experiments. Although the microfluidic device is demonstrated on filamentous fungi, our technology is immediately extensible to a wide array of other biosystems that exhibit similar polarized cell growth with applications ranging from bioenergy production to human health.

  4. Bacterial Population Genetics in a Forensic Context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Velsko, S P

    2009-11-02

    This report addresses the recent Department of Homeland Security (DHS) call for a Phase I study to (1) assess gaps in the forensically relevant knowledge about the population genetics of eight bacterial agents of concern, (2) formulate a technical roadmap to address those gaps, and (3) identify new bioinformatics tools that would be necessary to analyze and interpret population genetic data in a forensic context. The eight organisms that were studied are B. anthracis, Y. pestis, F. tularensis, Brucella spp., E. coli O157/H7, Burkholderia mallei, Burkholderia pseudomallei, and C. botulinum. Our study focused on the use of bacterial population genetics by forensic investigators to test hypotheses about the possible provenance of an agent that was used in a crime or act of terrorism. Just as human population genetics underpins the calculations of match probabilities for human DNA evidence, bacterial population genetics determines the level of support that microbial DNA evidence provides for or against certain well-defined hypotheses about the origins of an infecting strain. Our key findings are: (1) Bacterial population genetics is critical for answering certain types of questions in a probabilistic manner, akin (but not identical) to 'match probabilities' in DNA forensics. (2) A basic theoretical framework for calculating likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for forensic hypotheses based on microbial genetic comparisons has been formulated. This 'inference-on-networks' framework has deep but simple connections to the population genetics of mtDNA and Y-STRs in human DNA forensics. (3) The 'phylogeographic' approach to identifying microbial sources is not an adequate basis for understanding bacterial population genetics in a forensic context, and has limited utility, even for generating 'leads' with respect to strain origin. (4) A collection of genotyped isolates obtained opportunistically from international locations augmented by phylogenetic representations of relatedness will not and enzootic outbreaks noted through international outbreak surveillance systems, and 'representative' genetic sequences from each outbreak. (5) Interpretation of genetic comparisons between an attack strain and reference strains requires a model for the network structure of maintenance foci, enzootic outbreaks, and human outbreaks of that disease, coupled with estimates of mutational rate constants. Validation of the model requires a set of sequences from exemplary outbreaks and laboratory data on mutation rates during animal passage. The necessary number of isolates in each validation set is determined by disease transmission network theory, and is based on the 'network diameter' of the outbreak. (6) The 8 bacteria in this study can be classified into 4 categories based on the complexity of the transmission network structure of their natural maintenance foci and their outbreaks, both enzootic and zoonotic. (7) For B. anthracis, Y. pestis, E. coli O157, and Brucella melitensis, and their primary natural animal hosts, most of the fundamental parameters needed for modeling genetic change within natural host or human transmission networks have been determined or can be estimated from existing field and laboratory studies. (8) For Burkholderia mallei, plausible approaches to transmission network models exist, but much of the fundamental parameterization does not. In addition, a validated high-resolution typing system for characterizing genetic change within outbreaks or foci has not yet been demonstrated, although a candidate system exists. (9) For Francisella tularensis, the increased complexity of the transmission network and unresolved questions about maintenance and transmission suggest that it will be more complex and difficult to develop useful models based on currently available data. (10) For Burkholderia pseudomallei and Clostridium botulinum, the transmission and maintenance networks involve complex soil communities and metapopulations about which very little is known. It is not clear that these pathogens can be brought into the in

  5. Obstacle to populating the string theory landscape

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Matthew C; Larfors, Magdalena

    2008-12-15

    We construct domain walls and instantons in a class of models with coupled scalar fields, determining, in agreement with previous studies, that many such solutions contain naked timelike singularities. Vacuum bubble solutions of this type do not contain a region of true vacuum, obstructing the ability of eternal inflation to populate other vacua. We determine a criterion that potentials must satisfy to avoid the existence of such singularities and show that many domain wall solutions in type IIB string theory are singular.

  6. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  7. New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector August 23, 2012 - 12:20pm Addthis New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean Energy Job Sector New Report Highlights Growth of America's Clean

  8. Geothermal Energy Growth Continues, Industry Survey Reports

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A survey released by the Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) shows continued growth in the number of new geothermal power projects under development in the United States, a 20% increase since January of this year.

  9. Driving Economic Growth: Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Driving Economic Growth: Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Driving Economic Growth: Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing With $8 billion in loans and commitments to projects that have supported the production of more than 4 million fuel-efficient cars and more than 35,000 direct jobs across eight states, the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program has played a key role in helping the American auto industry propel the resurgence of

  10. The reionization of galactic satellite populations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ocvirk, P.; Gillet, N.; Aubert, D.; Chardin, J.; Knebe, A.; Yepes, G.; Libeskind, N.; Gottlber, S.; Hoffman, Y.

    2014-10-10

    We use high-resolution simulations of the formation of the local group, post-processed by a radiative transfer code for UV photons, to investigate the reionization of the satellite populations of an isolated Milky Way-M31 galaxy pair in a variety of scenarios. We use an improved version of ATON which includes a simple recipe for radiative feedback. In our baseline models, reionization is initiated by low-mass, radiatively regulated halos at high redshift, until more massive halos appear, which then dominate and complete the reionization process. We investigate the relation between reionization history and present-day positions of the satellite population. We find that the average reionization redshift (z {sub r}) of satellites is higher near galaxy centers (MW and M31). This is due to the inside out reionization patterns imprinted by massive halos within the progenitor during the epoch of reionization, which end up forming the center of the galaxy. Due to incomplete dynamical mixing during galaxy assembly, these early patterns survive to present day, resulting in a clear radial gradient in the average satellite reionization redshift, up to the virial radius of MW and M31 and beyond. In the lowest emissivity scenario, the outer satellites are reionized about 180 Myr later than the inner satellites. This delay decreases with increasing source model emissivity, or in the case of external reionization by Virgo or M31, because reionization occurs faster overall and becomes spatially quasi-uniform at the highest emissivity.

  11. A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.

  12. Population Sensitivity Evaluation of Two Candidate Locations for Possible

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Small Modular Reactor Siting | Department of Energy Population Sensitivity Evaluation of Two Candidate Locations for Possible Small Modular Reactor Siting Population Sensitivity Evaluation of Two Candidate Locations for Possible Small Modular Reactor Siting This report documents population density studies of selected sites in the Hampton Roads, Virginia area. PDF icon Population Sensitivity Evaluation of Two Candidate Locations for Possible Small Modular Reactor Siting More Documents &

  13. Apparatus for silicon web growth of higher output and improved growth stability

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Duncan, Charles S.; Piotrowski, Paul A.

    1989-01-01

    This disclosure describes an apparatus to improve the web growth attainable from prior web growth configurations. This apparatus modifies the heat loss at the growth interface in a manner that minimizes thickness variations across the web, especially regions of the web adjacent to the two bounding dendrites. In the unmodified configuration, thinned regions of web, adjacent to the dendrites, were found to be the origin of crystal degradation which ultimately led to termination of the web growth. According to the present invention, thinning adjacent to the dendrites is reduced and the incidence of crystal degradation is similarly reduced.

  14. Growth Mode and Substrate Symmetry Dependent Strain in Epitaxial...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Growth Mode and Substrate Symmetry Dependent Strain in Epitaxial Graphene. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Growth Mode and Substrate Symmetry Dependent Strain in...

  15. OECD-Fostering Innovation for Green Growth | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Fostering Innovation for Green Growth Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: OECD-Fostering Innovation for Green Growth AgencyCompany Organization:...

  16. Indonesia-Low Carbon Growth Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth Project Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia Low Carbon Growth Project AgencyCompany Organization United Kingdom Department for International Development Partner...

  17. Kenya-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Kenya-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  18. India-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name India-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  19. Brazil-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Brazil-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  20. Poland-Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program Jump to: navigation, search Name Poland-Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program AgencyCompany Organization Energy Sector Management...

  1. Guyana-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Guyana-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  2. Mexico-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Mexico-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  3. Malaysia-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Malaysia-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Malaysia-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks,...

  4. Indonesia-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  5. Egypt-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Egypt-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  6. Ethiopia-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ethiopia-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name Ethiopia-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks,...

  7. Republic of Macedonia-Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program Jump to: navigation, search Name Republic of Macedonia-Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program AgencyCompany Organization Energy...

  8. Before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Job Creation and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Economic Growth, Job Creation and Regulatory Affairs - House Committee on Oversight and Governmant Reform Before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Job Creation and Regulatory ...

  9. Thailand-Green Growth Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name Thailand-Green Growth Planning AgencyCompany Organization Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) Partner Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA)...

  10. Cambodia-Green Growth Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name Cambodia-Green Growth Planning AgencyCompany Organization Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) Partner Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA)...

  11. Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    "GGGI is dedicated to pioneering and diffusing a new model of economic growth, known as "green growth," that simultaneously targets key aspects of economic performance, such as...

  12. Green Growth e-Learning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Green Growth e-Learning AgencyCompany Organization: Green Growth Best Practice Initiative (GGBPI) Focus Area: Economic Development, Energy...

  13. Peru-Green Growth Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    navigation, search Name Peru-Green Growth Planning AgencyCompany Organization Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) Partner Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA)...

  14. Jordan-Green Growth Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    navigation, search Name Jordan-Green Growth Planning AgencyCompany Organization Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) Partner Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA)...

  15. Ethiopia-Green Growth Planning | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    search Name Ethiopia-Green Growth Planning AgencyCompany Organization Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) Partner...

  16. Understanding Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer Process Plants Understanding Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer Process Plants This report presents an empirical...

  17. Growth of the NGV Market: Lessons Learned Roadmap for Infrastructure...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Growth of the NGV Market: Lessons Learned Roadmap for Infrastructure Development Growth of the NGV Market: Lessons Learned Roadmap for Infrastructure Development Presented at ...

  18. Synthesis of segmented silica rods by growth temperature regulation...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    silica rods by growth temperature regulation Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Synthesis of segmented silica rods by growth temperature regulation Authors: Sharma, ...

  19. ClimateWorks-Egypt-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks-Egypt-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Redirect page Jump to: navigation, search REDIRECT ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Retrieved from "http:...

  20. Low Carbon Growth: a Potential Path for Mexico - GHG Abatement...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    "ESMAP Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program" Retrieved from "http:en.openei.orgwindex.php?titleLowCarbonGrowth:aPotentialPathforMexico-GHGAbatementCostCurve&...

  1. Low Carbon Green Growth: Integrated Policy Approach to Climate...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth: Integrated Policy Approach to Climate Change for Asia-Pacific Developing Countries Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Green Growth:...

  2. Ghana Goes for Green Growth: National Engagement on Climate Change...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ghana Goes for Green Growth: National Engagement on Climate Change Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Ghana Goes for Green Growth: National Engagement on...

  3. Enhancing Plant Growth and Stress Tolerance through Use of Fungi...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Enhancing Plant Growth and Stress Tolerance through Use of Fungi and Bacteria that Comprise Plant Microbiomes Enhancing Plant Growth and Stress Tolerance through Use of Fungi and...

  4. From Climate Finance to Financing Green Growth | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    green growth and the importance of developing the right policies to support a transition towards the low carbon economy. It assesses the financing needs of green growth in...

  5. China-ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support | Open...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ClimateWorks Low Carbon Growth Planning Support Jump to: navigation, search Name China-Low Carbon Growth Planning Support AgencyCompany Organization ClimateWorks, Project...

  6. Growth Kinetics and Modeling of Direct Oxynitride Growth with NO-O2 Gas Mixtures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Everist, Sarah; Nelson, Jerry; Sharangpani, Rahul; Smith, Paul Martin; Tay, Sing-Pin; Thakur, Randhir

    1999-05-03

    We have modeled growth kinetics of oxynitrides grown in NO-O2 gas mixtures from first principles using modified Deal-Grove equations. Retardation of oxygen diffusion through the nitrided dielectric was assumed to be the dominant growth-limiting step. The model was validated against experimentally obtained curves with good agreement. Excellent uniformity, which exceeded expected walues, was observed.

  7. Role of nucleation in nanodiamond film growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lifshitz, Y.; Lee, C.H.; Wu, Y.; Zhang, W.J.; Bello, I.; Lee, S.T.

    2006-06-12

    Nanodiamond films were deposited using different microwave plasma chemical vapor deposition schemes following several nucleation pretreatment methods. The nucleation efficiency and the films structure were investigated using scanning and transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. C{sub 2} dimer growth (CH{sub 4} and H{sub 2} in 90% Ar) cannot nucleate diamond and works only on existing diamond surfaces. The methyl radical process (up to 20% CH{sub 4} in H{sub 2}) allows some nucleation probability on appropriate substrates. Prolonged bias enhanced nucleation initiates both diamond nucleation and growth. C{sub 2} dimer growth results in pure nanodiamond free of amorphous carbon, while prolonged bias enhanced nucleation forms an amorphous carbon/nanodiamond composite.

  8. Efg Crystal Growth Apparatus And Method

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mackintosh, Brian H. (Concord, MA); Ouellette, Marc (Nashua, NH)

    2003-05-13

    An improved mechanical arrangement controls the introduction of silicon particles into an EFG (Edge-defined Film-fed Growth) crucible/die unit for melt replenishment during a crystal growth run. A feeder unit injects silicon particles upwardly through a center hub of the crucible/die unit and the mechanical arrangement intercepts the injected particles and directs them so that they drop into the melt in a selected region of the crucible and at velocity which reduces splashing, whereby to reduce the likelihood of interruption of the growth process due to formation of a solid mass of silicon on the center hub and adjoining components. The invention also comprises use of a Faraday ring to alter the ratio of the electrical currents flowing through primary and secondary induction heating coils that heat the crucible die unit and the mechanical arrangement.

  9. Crystal growth and annealing method and apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gianoulakis, Steven E.; Sparrow, Robert

    2001-01-01

    A method and apparatus for producing crystals that minimizes birefringence even at large crystal sizes, and is suitable for production of CaF.sub.2 crystals. The method of the present invention comprises annealing a crystal by maintaining a minimal temperature gradient in the crystal while slowly reducing the bulk temperature of the crystal. An apparatus according to the present invention includes a thermal control system added to a crystal growth and annealing apparatus, wherein the thermal control system allows a temperature gradient during crystal growth but minimizes the temperature gradient during crystal annealing. An embodiment of the present invention comprises a secondary heater incorporated into a conventional crystal growth and annealing apparatus. The secondary heater supplies heat to minimize the temperature gradients in the crystal during the annealing process. The secondary heater can mount near the bottom of the crucible to effectively maintain appropriate temperature gradients.

  10. Special population planner, version 4.0.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuiper, J.; Tanzman, E.; Metz, W.

    2007-03-26

    Emergencies happen every day. Many are caused by storms or auto accidents and can be planned for, if not predicted. Emergencies resulting from natural hazards often affect a large number of people, and planning for them can be difficult, since knowledge of the needs of the people involved is generally unavailable. Emergencies resulting from accidents at industrial and military facilities can also be large scale in nature if people must be evacuated or sheltered in place. Federal planning for large scale emergencies is the responsibility of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which provides assistance to various emergency management agencies at the national, state and local level. More information about FEMA is available at http://www.fema.gov/. The purpose of the Special Population Planner (SPP) is to help emergency planners address the needs of persons with special needs. The exact definition of 'special population' is a policy decision. Policymakers have included a variety of groups in this term, such as persons with disabilities, those who do not have vehicles with which to evacuate, children who are unattended at times (latchkey children), and many others. The SPP was developed initially for the Alabama Emergency Management Agency as part of its Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP), which aids emergency planning and preparedness in communities surrounding military installations across the United States where chemical weapons are stored pending their destruction under federal law. Like that specialized application, this open-source version contains a set of specialized Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to facilitate emergency planning on behalf of persons with special needs, regardless of how the term is defined. While the original SPP system was developed for emergency planning relating to chemical hazards, it can be applied to other threats as well. It is apparent from Hurricane Katrina and other natural and man-made disasters that many of the problems posed by emergency planning for a chemical weapons agent release are shared by other hazards as well. The notion that emergency planning shares common functions underlies the decision by FEMA to include the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP) in its 'all-hazards' planning approach. The CSEPP's official planning guidance operationalizes this approach by suggesting that state and local CSEPP emergency plans 'should be appended to the existing all-hazards emergency plan.' The SPP is programmed as a set of tools within an ESRI ArcMap 9.1 project. ArcMap is a component of both ESRI ArcGIS 9.1 and ESRI ArcView 9.1, and it provides a rich GIS user interface for viewing spatial and tabular data, analyzing it, and producing output reports and maps. This GIS interface has been augmented with the SPP tools for a user interface that provides custom functionality for emergency planning. The system as released also includes some hypothetical example records for special needs populations, facilities, resources, control points and sirens sufficient for showing how the system would work with real information. A GIS database is included with some publicly available example layers. The SPP is designed to support emergency planners as they address emergency management issues, and includes capabilities that support the collection and importing of data, the review of data in a spatial context, and GIS tools for emergency planning. The SPP system allows for the identification and categorization of response zones to allow for multiple levels of preparedness. An Immediate Response Zone (IRZ) might be designated as the area 0 to 10 miles from a facility where the response would be the most urgent. SPP can support more than one set of planning zones to accommodate different types of emergencies or the different jurisdictions of emergency response organizations. These areas can be delineated by any number of criteria that make sense for the area. An area like New Orleans might designate response zones based on the depth above/below s

  11. Klebsiella pneumoniae inoculants for enhancing plant growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Triplett, Eric W. (Middleton, WI); Kaeppler, Shawn M. (Oregon, WI); Chelius, Marisa K. (Greeley, CO)

    2008-07-01

    A biological inoculant for enhancing the growth of plants is disclosed. The inoculant includes the bacterial strains Herbaspirillum seropedicae 2A, Pantoea agglomerans P101, Pantoea agglomerans P102, Klebsiella pneumoniae 342, Klebsiella pneumoniae zmvsy, Herbaspirillum seropedicae Z152, Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus PA15, with or without a carrier. The inoculant also includes strains of the bacterium Pantoea agglomerans and K. pneumoniae which are able to enhance the growth of cereal grasses. Also disclosed are the novel bacterial strains Herbaspirillum seropedicae 2A, Pantoea agglomerans P101 and P102, and Klebsiella pneumoniae 342 and zmvsy.

  12. Direct growth of graphene on Si(111)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thanh Trung, Pham Joucken, Frdric; Colomer, Jean-Franois; Robert, Sporken; Campos-Delgado, Jessica; Raskin, Jean-Pierre; Hackens, Benot; Santos, Cristiane N.

    2014-06-14

    Due to the need of integrated circuit in the current silicon technology, the formation of graphene on Si wafer is highly desirable, but is still a challenge for the scientific community. In this context, we report the direct growth of graphene on Si(111) wafer under appropriate conditions using an electron beam evaporator. The structural quality of the material is investigated in detail by reflection high energy electron diffraction, Auger electron spectroscopy, X-ray photoemission spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, high resolution scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and scanning tunneling microscopy. Our experimental results confirm that the quality of graphene is strongly dependent on the growth time during carbon atoms deposition.

  13. Longwall population holds steady at 52

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fiscor, S.

    2007-02-15

    The overall population stands at 48 mines operating 53 longwalls. CONSOL Energy remains the leading US longwall operator with 12 installations. With the acquisition of the Andalex properties in Utah, Robert E Murray now owns eight longwall mines followed by Arch Coal (5) and Massey Energy (4). West Virginia remains the leading longwall mining state with 14 faces in 2005, followed by Pennsylvania (8), Alabama (6), Utah (6) and Colorado (5). A detailed table gives for each longwall installation, the ownership, seam height, cutting height, panel width and length, overburden, number of gate entries, depth of cut, model of equipment used (shearer, haulage system, roof support, face conveyor, stage loader, crusher, electrical controls and voltage to face). The most striking difference between the 2007 US Longwall Census and past reports carried out by Coal Age is the increased number of longwall operators that believe they have the most productive operation. Several operators have purchased or intend to purchase new equipment or upgrade the technology of the faces. Longwall mining in the US has reached a balanced state. 1 photo., 1 tab.

  14. Magnetic Fields in Population III Star Formation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turk, Matthew J.; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Abel, Tom; Bryan, Greg

    2012-02-22

    We study the buildup of magnetic fields during the formation of Population III star-forming regions, by conducting cosmological simulations from realistic initial conditions and varying the Jeans resolution. To investigate this in detail, we start simulations from identical initial conditions, mandating 16, 32 and 64 zones per Jeans length, and studied the variation in their magnetic field amplification. We find that, while compression results in some amplification, turbulent velocity fluctuations driven by the collapse can further amplify an initially weak seed field via dynamo action, provided there is sufficient numerical resolution to capture vortical motions (we find this requirement to be 64 zones per Jeans length, slightly larger than, but consistent with previous work run with more idealized collapse scenarios). We explore saturation of amplification of the magnetic field, which could potentially become dynamically important in subsequent, fully-resolved calculations. We have also identified a relatively surprising phenomena that is purely hydrodynamic: the higher-resolved simulations possess substantially different characteristics, including higher infall-velocity, increased temperatures inside 1000 AU, and decreased molecular hydrogen content in the innermost region. Furthermore, we find that disk formation is suppressed in higher-resolution calculations, at least at the times that we can follow the calculation. We discuss the effect this may have on the buildup of disks over the accretion history of the first clump to form as well as the potential for gravitational instabilities to develop and induce fragmentation.

  15. Lubricating bacteria model for the growth of bacterial colonies exposed to ultraviolet radiation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang Shengli; Zhang Lei; Liang Run; Zhang Erhu; Liu Yachao; Zhao Shumin

    2005-11-01

    In this paper, we study the morphological transition of bacterial colonies exposed to ultraviolet radiation by modifying the bacteria model proposed by Delprato et al. Our model considers four factors: the lubricant fluid generated by bacterial colonies, a chemotaxis initiated by the ultraviolet radiation, the intensity of the ultraviolet radiation, and the bacteria's two-stage destruction rate with given radiation intensities. Using this modified model, we simulate the ringlike pattern formation of the bacterial colony exposed to uniform ultraviolet radiation. The following is shown. (1) Without the UV radiation the colony forms a disklike pattern and reaches a constant front velocity. (2) After the radiation is switched on, the bacterial population migrates to the edge of the colony and forms a ringlike pattern. As the intensity of the UV radiation is increased the ring forms faster and the outer velocity of the colony decreases. (3) For higher radiation intensities the total population decreases, while for lower intensities the total population increases initially at a small rate and then decreases. (4) After the UV radiation is switched off, the bacterial population grows both outward as well as into the inner region, and the colony's outer front velocity recovers to a constant value. All these results agree well with the experimental observations [Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 158102 (2001)]. Along with the chemotaxis, we find that lubricant fluid and the two-stage destruction rate are critical to the dynamics of the growth of the bacterial colony when exposed to UV radiation, and these were not previously considered.

  16. Melt dumping in string stabilized ribbon growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sachs, Emanuel M. (42 Old Middlesex Rd., Belmont, MA 02178)

    1986-12-09

    A method and apparatus for stabilizing the edge positions of a ribbon drawn from a melt includes the use of wettable strings drawn in parallel up through the melt surface, the ribbon being grown between the strings. A furnace and various features of the crucible used therein permit continuous automatic growth of flat ribbons without close temperature control or the need for visual inspection.

  17. Growth Of Oriented Crystals At Polymerized Membranes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Charych, Deborah H. (Albany, CA), Berman, Amir (Ben-Shiva, IL)

    2000-01-25

    The present invention relates to methods and compositions for the growth and alignment of crystals at biopolymeric films. The methods and compositions of the present invention provide means to generate a variety of dense crystalline ceramic films, with totally aligned crystals, at low temperatures and pressures, suitable for use with polymer and plastic substrates.

  18. LandScan 2003 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  19. LandScan 2007 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2008-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  20. LandScan 2010 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2010-07-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  1. LandScan 2002 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  2. LandScan 2008 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  3. LandScan 2005 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  4. LandScan 2009 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2009-07-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  5. LandScan 2004 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2005-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  6. LandScan 2006 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-01-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  7. Pair instability supernovae of very massive population III stars (Journal

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Article) | SciTech Connect Pair instability supernovae of very massive population III stars Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Pair instability supernovae of very massive population III stars Numerical studies of primordial star formation suggest that the first stars in the universe may have been very massive. Stellar models indicate that non-rotating Population III stars with initial masses of 140-260 M {sub ☉} die as highly energetic pair-instability supernovae. We present new

  8. LandScan 2013 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-07-01

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30"x30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on land cover, slope, road proximity, high-resolution imagery, and other data sets. The LandScan data set was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk.

  9. The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: The Other 15%: Expanding Energy Efficiency to Rural Populations, call slides and discussion summary. PDF icon Call Slides and Discussion Summary More Documents & Publications Staged Upgrades - Homeowner-focused Strategies for Encouraging Energy Upgrades over Time Strengthening

  10. ARM - Lesson Plans: Expansion of Population and Environment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Expansion of Population and Environment Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Lesson Plans: Expansion of Population and Environment Objective The objective is to highlight the future population of the world in order to estimate its effect on the environment and on climate change.

  11. LandScan 2011 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-11-19

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. LandScan 2001 has been developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient population risk.

  12. LandScan 2000 High Resolution Global Population Data Set

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2001-12-31

    The LandScan data set is a worldwide population database compiled on a 30" X 30" latitude/longitude grid. Census counts (at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on likelihood coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover, nighttime lights, and other data sets. The LandScan data set was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk.

  13. Visualizing Diurnal Population Change in Urban Areas for Emergency Management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuo; Medina, Richard M; Cova, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    There is an increasing need for a quick, simple method to represent diurnal population change in metropolitan areas for effective emergency management and risk analysis. Many geographic studies rely on decennial U.S. Census data that assume that urban populations are static in space and time. This has obvious limitations in the context of dynamic geographic problems. The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes population data at the transportation analysis zone level in fifteen-minute increments. This level of spatial and temporal detail allows for improved dynamic population modeling. This article presents a methodology for visualizing and analyzing diurnal population change for metropolitan areas based on this readily available data. Areal interpolation within a geographic information system is used to create twenty-four (one per hour) population surfaces for the larger metropolitan area of Salt Lake County, Utah. The resulting surfaces represent diurnal population change for an average workday and are easily combined to produce an animation that illustrates population dynamics throughout the day. A case study of using the method to visualize population distributions in an emergency management context is provided using two scenarios: a chemical release and a dirty bomb in Salt Lake County. This methodology can be used to address a wide variety of problems in emergency management.

  14. Core-Collapse Supernovae and Host Galaxy Stellar Populations...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Core-Collapse Supernovae and Host Galaxy Stellar Populations Authors: Kelly, Patrick L. ; KIPAC, Menlo Park SLAC ; Kirshner, Robert P. ; Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. ...

  15. Greater Sage-Grouse Populations and Energy Development in Wyoming...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    development affects greater sage-grouse populations in Wyoming. Authors Renee C. Taylor, Matthew R. Dzialak and Larry D. Hayden-Wing Published Taylor, Dzialak and...

  16. United Nations Population Information Network | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Focus Area: People and Policy Resource Type: Dataset Website: www.un.orgpopin Cost: Free United Nations Population Information Network Screenshot References: United Nations...

  17. Aqueous precipitation: Population balance modeling and control in multi-cation systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voigt, J.A.

    1996-03-01

    Efficient separation of metal species from aqueous streams by precipitation techniques requires a fundamental understanding of the processes that occur during precipitation. These processes include particle nucleation, particle growth by solute deposition, agglomerate formation, and agglomerate breakup. Population balance method has been used to develop a kinetic model that accounts for these competing kinetic processes. The usefulness of the model is illustrated through its application to precipitation of yttrium hydroxynitrate, YHN. Kinetic parameters calculated from the model equations and system-specific solution chemistry are used to describe several aspects of the effect of pH on YHN precipitation. Implications for simultaneous precipitation of more than one cation type are discussed with examples. Effects of solution chemistry, precipitator design, and solvent choice are considered.

  18. Method for solid state crystal growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nolas, George S.; Beekman, Matthew K.

    2013-04-09

    A novel method for high quality crystal growth of intermetallic clathrates is presented. The synthesis of high quality pure phase crystals has been complicated by the simultaneous formation of both clathrate type-I and clathrate type-II structures. It was found that selective, phase pure, single-crystal growth of type-I and type-II clathrates can be achieved by maintaining sufficient partial pressure of a chemical constituent during slow, controlled deprivation of the chemical constituent from the primary reactant. The chemical constituent is slowly removed from the primary reactant by the reaction of the chemical constituent vapor with a secondary reactant, spatially separated from the primary reactant, in a closed volume under uniaxial pressure and heat to form the single phase pure crystals.

  19. Epitaxial growth of silicon for layer transfer

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Teplin, Charles; Branz, Howard M

    2015-03-24

    Methods of preparing a thin crystalline silicon film for transfer and devices utilizing a transferred crystalline silicon film are disclosed. The methods include preparing a silicon growth substrate which has an interface defining substance associated with an exterior surface. The methods further include depositing an epitaxial layer of silicon on the silicon growth substrate at the surface and separating the epitaxial layer from the substrate substantially along the plane or other surface defined by the interface defining substance. The epitaxial layer may be utilized as a thin film of crystalline silicon in any type of semiconductor device which requires a crystalline silicon layer. In use, the epitaxial transfer layer may be associated with a secondary substrate.

  20. Substrate solder barriers for semiconductor epilayer growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Drummond, T.J.; Ginley, D.S.; Zipperian, T.E.

    1989-05-09

    During the growth of compound semiconductors by epitaxial processes, substrates are typically mounted to a support. In modular beam epitaxy, mounting is done using indium as a solder. This method has two drawbacks: the indium reacts with the substrate, and it is difficult to uniformly wet the back of a large diameter substrate. Both of these problems have been successfully overcome by sputter coating the back of the substrate with a thin layer of tungsten carbide or tungsten carbide and gold. In addition to being compatible with the growth of high quality semiconductor epilayers this coating is also inert in all standard substrate cleaning etchants used for compound semiconductors, and provides uniform distribution of energy in radiant heating.

  1. Substrate solder barriers for semiconductor epilayer growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Drummond, T.J.; Ginley, D.S.; Zipperian, T.E.

    1987-10-23

    During the growth of compound semiconductors by epitaxial processes, substrates are typically mounted to a support. In molecular beam epitaxy, mounting is done using indium as a solder. This method has two drawbacks: the indium reacts with the substrate, and it is difficult to uniformly wet the back of a large diameter substrate. Both of these problems have been successfully overcome by sputter coating the back of the substrate with a thin layer of tungsten carbide or tungsten carbide and gold. In addition to being compatible with the growth of high quality semiconductor epilayers this coating is also inert in all standard substate cleaning etchants used for compound semiconductors, and provides uniform distribution of energy in radiant heating. 1 tab.

  2. Substrate solder barriers for semiconductor epilayer growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Drummond, Timothy J.; Ginley, David S.; Zipperian, Thomas E.

    1989-01-01

    During the growth of compound semiconductors by epitaxial processes, substrates are typically mounted to a support. In modular beam epitaxy, mounting is done using indium as a solder. This method has two drawbacks: the indium reacts with the substrate, and it is difficult to uniformly wet the back of a large diameter substrate. Both of these problems have been successfully overcome by sputter coating the back of the substrate with a thin layer of tungsten carbide or tungsten carbide and gold. In addition to being compatible with the growth of high quality semiconductor epilayers this coating is also inert in all standard substrate cleaning etchants used for compound semiconductors, and provides uniform distribution of energy in radiant heating.

  3. Career Growth | National Nuclear Security Administration

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Growth | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission Managing the Stockpile Preventing Proliferation Powering the Nuclear Navy Emergency Response Recapitalizing Our Infrastructure Countering Nuclear Terrorism About Our Programs Our History Who We Are Our Leadership Our Locations Budget Our Operations Library Bios Congressional Testimony Fact Sheets Newsletters Press Releases Photo Gallery Jobs Apply for Our Jobs Our Jobs Working at NNSA Blog Home /

  4. Growth process for gallium nitride porous nanorods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wildeson, Isaac Harshman; Sands, Timothy David

    2015-03-24

    A GaN nanorod and formation method. Formation includes providing a substrate having a GaN film, depositing SiN.sub.x on the GaN film, etching a growth opening through the SiN.sub.x and into the GaN film, growing a GaN nanorod through the growth opening, the nanorod having a nanopore running substantially through its centerline. Focused ion beam etching can be used. The growing can be done using organometallic vapor phase epitaxy. The nanopore diameter can be controlled using the growth opening diameter or the growing step duration. The GaN nanorods can be removed from the substrate. The SiN.sub.x layer can be removed after the growing step. A SiO.sub.x template can be formed on the GaN film and the GaN can be grown to cover the SiO.sub.x template before depositing SiN.sub.x on the GaN film. The SiO.sub.x template can be removed after growing the nanorods.

  5. 1979 revenue growth belies utility industry problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lincicome, R.

    1980-06-01

    Despite growth in revenues during 1979, electric utilities are greatly troubled by high inflation, restricted capital, and the lack of rate relief from utility commissions. The growth, although smaller than normal, will likely convince commissions to respond to rate increase requests by authorizing only the smallest possible increases. With inflationary pressures eroding utility companies' financial base, the benefits of rate increases are wiped out after a year or so, necessitating a return to the commissions for futher adjustments. This up-down cycling is reflected in the report of the performances of the top one hundred utility companies. Earning growth statistics, sales data, financial statistics, and company performances (electric sales, customers served, revenues, and after-tax net income) of top one hundred electric utilities are given in separate tables for 1979. Overall, kWh sales were up 2.9%; revenues were up 13.4%; net income was up 8.1%; and overall earnings performance was a weak increase of 9.4%. (SAC)

  6. Theoretical priors on modified growth parametrisations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Song, Yong-Seon; Hollenstein, Lukas; Caldera-Cabral, Gabriela; Koyama, Kazuya E-mail: Lukas.Hollenstein@unige.ch E-mail: Kazuya.Koyama@port.ac.uk

    2010-04-01

    Next generation surveys will observe the large-scale structure of the Universe with unprecedented accuracy. This will enable us to test the relationships between matter over-densities, the curvature perturbation and the Newtonian potential. Any large-distance modification of gravity or exotic nature of dark energy modifies these relationships as compared to those predicted in the standard smooth dark energy model based on General Relativity. In linear theory of structure growth such modifications are often parameterised by virtue of two functions of space and time that enter the relation of the curvature perturbation to, first, the matter over- density, and second, the Newtonian potential. We investigate the predictions for these functions in Brans-Dicke theory, clustering dark energy models and interacting dark energy models. We find that each theory has a distinct path in the parameter space of modified growth. Understanding these theoretical priors on the parameterisations of modified growth is essential to reveal the nature of cosmic acceleration with the help of upcoming observations of structure formation.

  7. LandCast 2030 High-Resolution Population Projection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2014-01-01

    The LandCast 2030 data set is an empirically-informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 compiled on a 30" x 30" latitute/longitude grid. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census's projection methodology - with the U.S. Census's official projection as the benchmark. Projected census counts were apportioned to each grid cell based on locally adaptive likelihood coefficients, which are based on land cover, slope, road proximity, distances to larger cities, a moving average of current population, and other data sets. The LandCast 2030 data set was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk.

  8. LandCast 2030 High-Resolution Population Projection

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-01-01

    The LandCast 2030 data set is an empirically-informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 compiled on a 30" x 30" latitute/longitude grid. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census's projection methodology - with the U.S. Census's official projection as the benchmark. Projected census counts were apportioned to each grid cell based on locally adaptive likelihood coefficients, which are based on landmore »cover, slope, road proximity, distances to larger cities, a moving average of current population, and other data sets. The LandCast 2030 data set was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk.« less

  9. LandCast 2050 High-Resolution Population Projection

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-01-01

    The LandCast 2050 data set is an empirically-informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2050 compiled on a 30" x 30" latitude/longitude grid. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census's projection methodology - with the U.S. Census's official projection as the benchmark. Projected census counts were apportioned to each grid cell based on locally adaptive likelihood coefficients, which are based on landmore »cover, slope, road proximity, distances to larger cities, a moving average of current population, and other data sets. The LandCast data set was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk.« less

  10. Long-term monitoring of reef corals at the Flower Garden Banks (northwest Gulf of Mexico): Reef coral population changes and historical incorporation of barium in Montastrea annularis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deslarzes, K.J.P.

    1992-01-01

    Reef coral populations were monitored from 1988 to 1991 at the Flower Garden Banks located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The status of reef coral populations, and natural or man-made factors potentially affecting their well-being were determined. Man-made chronic disturbances are degrading coral reef resources on a global scale. Yet, the Flower Garden coral reefs seem to have been sheltered from the effects of regional stresses generated by population growth and increased industrial activity. Since 1974, reef coral population levels have remained unchanged in the Montastrea-Diploria Zones at the Flower Garden Banks. Live coral cover ranges between 46 and 46.5%. Montastrea annularis and Diploria strigosa comprise 80% of the coral cover on either bank. The remainder of the cover is mostly shared by eight other taxa. Coral taxa appear to be more homogeneously distributed on the West Bank. The relatively greater number of Agaricia spp., Madracis decastis, and P. astreoides colonies on the East Bank may be the source of a decreased evenness. The health of reef corals was assessed using repetitive and non-repetitive photographic methods, and accretionary growth measurements of M. annularis. Reef corals have undergone small scale changes at the Flower Gardens probably reflecting natural disturbance, predation, disease, and inter-specific competition. White mat disease (ridge disease) is shown to generate more tissue loss than any of the three bleaching events that took place at the Flower Gardens (1989, 1990, and 1991). Advance to retreat linear ratios of encrusting growth revealed a net tissue gain on the East Bank and a net tissue loss on the West Bank. Growth rates of M. annularis were highly variable. The annual barium content from 1910 in 1989 in a M. annularis colony from the West Flower Garden did not reveal trends associated with the extensive oil and gas exploration in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

  11. LPG export growth will exceed demand by 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    True, W.R.

    1994-08-08

    LPG supplies for international trade will increase sharply through 2000 and begin to outstrip demand by 1997 or 1998. This outlook depends on several production projects proceeding as planned. Leading the way to increased volumes are projects in Algeria, Nigeria, and Australia, among others. Purvin and Gertz, Dallas, projected this trend earlier this year at an international LPG seminar near Houston. Representatives from LPG-supplying countries also presented information to support this view and subsequently supplied more specifics to OGJ in response to questions. This paper discusses this information. Trends in Africa, Australia, North America, and South America are forecast.

  12. Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO{sub 2}emissions through 2050.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, M.; Huo, H.; Johnson, L.; He, D.

    2006-12-20

    As the vehicle population in China increases, oil consumption and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions associated with on-road transportation are rising dramatically. During this study, we developed a methodology to project trends in the growth of the vehicle population, oil demand, and CO{sub 2} emissions associated with on-road transportation in China. By using this methodology, we projected--separately--the number of highway vehicles, motorcycles, and rural vehicles in China through 2050. We used three scenarios of highway vehicle growth (high-, mid-, and low-growth) to reflect patterns of motor vehicle growth that have occurred in different parts of the world (i.e., Europe and Asia). All are essentially business-as-usual scenarios in that almost none of the countries we examined has made concerted efforts to manage vehicle growth or to offer serious alternative transportation means to satisfy people's mobility needs. With this caveat, our projections showed that by 2030, China could have more highway vehicles than the United States has today, and by 2035, it could have the largest number of highway vehicles in the world. By 2050, China could have 486-662 million highway vehicles, 44 million motorcycles, and 28 million rural vehicles. These numbers, which assume essentially unmanaged vehicle growth, would result in potentially disastrous effects on the urban infrastructure, resources, and other social and ecological aspects of life in China. We designed three fuel economy scenarios, from conservative to aggressive, on the basis of current policy efforts and expectations of near-future policies in China and in developed countries. It should be noted that these current and near-future policies have not taken into consideration the significant potential for further fuel economy improvements offered by advanced technologies such as electric drive technologies (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles and fuel-cell vehicles). By using vehicle growth projections and potential vehicle fuel economy, we projected that China's on-road vehicles could consume approximately 614-1016 million metric tons of oil per year (12.4-20.6 million barrels per day) and could emit 1.9-3.2 billion metric tons of CO{sub 2} per year in 2050, which will put tremendous pressure on the balance of the Chinese and world oil supply and demand and could have significant implications on climate change. Our analysis shows that, while improvements in vehicle fuel economy are crucial for reducing transportation energy use, containing the growth of the vehicle population could have an even more profound effect on oil use and CO{sub 2} emissions. This benefit is in addition to other societal and environmental benefits--such as reduced congestion, land use, and urban air pollution--that will result from containing vehicle population growth. Developing public transportation systems for personal travel and rail and other modes for freight transportation will be important for containing the growth of motor vehicles in China. Although the population of passenger cars will far exceed that of all truck types in China in the future, our analysis shows that oil use by and CO{sub 2} emissions from the Chinese truck fleet will be far larger than those related to Chinese passenger cars because trucks are very use intensive (more vehicle miles traveled per year) and energy intensive (lower fuel economy). Unfortunately, the potential for improving fuel economy and reducing air pollutant emissions for trucks has not been fully explored; such efforts are needed. Considering the rapid depletion of the world's oil reserve, the heightened global interest in addressing greenhouse gas emissions, and the geopolitical complications of global oil supply and demand, the study results suggest that unmanaged vehicle growth and limited improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency will lead to an unsustainable and unstable transportation system in China. In other words, while our projections do not definitively indicate what will happen in the Chinese transportation sector by 2050, they do demonstrate

  13. Ukraine-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ukraine-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth (Redirected from UNDP-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth in Ukraine) Jump to: navigation, search Name UNDP-Capacity Building...

  14. Ukraine-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ukraine-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth Jump to: navigation, search Name UNDP-Capacity Building for Low Carbon Growth in Ukraine AgencyCompany Organization United Nations...

  15. ALS Technique Gives Novel View of Lithium Battery Dendrite Growth

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ALS Technique Gives Novel View of Lithium Battery Dendrite Growth ALS Technique Gives Novel View of Lithium Battery Dendrite Growth Print Thursday, 24 April 2014 09:46 Lithium-ion...

  16. Global Green Growth Forum (3GF) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    find new green avenues to growth. Green growth has to be at the core of a sustainable strategy to get us out of the economic crisis. To advance this global agenda, Denmark as well...

  17. Home Performance with ENERGY STAR -- 10 Years of Continued Growth...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    with ENERGY STAR -- 10 Years of Continued Growth Home Performance with ENERGY STAR -- 10 Years of Continued Growth Provides an overview of the HPwES program, HPwES successes, and...

  18. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  19. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  20. Source and seed populations for relativistic electrons: Their roles in radiation belt changes

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Singer, H. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Loto'aniu, T. M.; Ali, A. F.; Elkington, S. R.; Li, X.; Kanekal, S. G.; Claudepierre, S. G.; et al

    2015-09-09

    Strong enhancements of outer Van Allen belt electrons have been shown to have a clear dependence on solar wind speed and on the duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field. However, individual case study analyses also have demonstrated that many geomagnetic storms produce little in the way of outer belt enhancements and, in fact, may produce substantial losses of relativistic electrons. In this study, focused upon a key period in August–September 2014, we use GOES geostationary orbit electron flux data and Van Allen Probes particle and fields data to study the process of radiation belt electron acceleration. One particular interval, 13–22more » September, initiated by a short-lived geomagnetic storm and characterized by a long period of primarily northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), showed strong depletion of relativistic electrons (including an unprecedented observation of long-lasting depletion at geostationary orbit) while an immediately preceding, and another immediately subsequent, storm showed strong radiation belt enhancement. We demonstrate with these data that two distinct electron populations resulting from magnetospheric substorm activity are crucial elements in the ultimate acceleration of highly relativistic electrons in the outer belt: the source population (tens of keV) that give rise to VLF wave growth and the seed population (hundreds of keV) that are, in turn, accelerated through VLF wave interactions to much higher energies. ULF waves may also play a role by either inhibiting or enhancing this process through radial diffusion effects. Furthermore, if any components of the inner magnetospheric accelerator happen to be absent, the relativistic radiation belt enhancement fails to materialize.« less

  1. Source and seed populations for relativistic electrons: Their roles in radiation belt changes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Singer, H. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Loto'aniu, T. M.; Ali, A. F.; Elkington, S. R.; Li, X.; Kanekal, S. G.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.; Li, W.; Thorne, R. M.; Kletzing, C. A.; Spence, H. E.; Reeves, G. D.

    2015-09-09

    Strong enhancements of outer Van Allen belt electrons have been shown to have a clear dependence on solar wind speed and on the duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field. However, individual case study analyses also have demonstrated that many geomagnetic storms produce little in the way of outer belt enhancements and, in fact, may produce substantial losses of relativistic electrons. In this study, focused upon a key period in AugustSeptember 2014, we use GOES geostationary orbit electron flux data and Van Allen Probes particle and fields data to study the process of radiation belt electron acceleration. One particular interval, 1322 September, initiated by a short-lived geomagnetic storm and characterized by a long period of primarily northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), showed strong depletion of relativistic electrons (including an unprecedented observation of long-lasting depletion at geostationary orbit) while an immediately preceding, and another immediately subsequent, storm showed strong radiation belt enhancement. We demonstrate with these data that two distinct electron populations resulting from magnetospheric substorm activity are crucial elements in the ultimate acceleration of highly relativistic electrons in the outer belt: the source population (tens of keV) that give rise to VLF wave growth and the seed population (hundreds of keV) that are, in turn, accelerated through VLF wave interactions to much higher energies. ULF waves may also play a role by either inhibiting or enhancing this process through radial diffusion effects. Furthermore, if any components of the inner magnetospheric accelerator happen to be absent, the relativistic radiation belt enhancement fails to materialize.

  2. Preliminary Study on Emittance Growth in the LHEC Recirculating Linac

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Conference) | SciTech Connect Preliminary Study on Emittance Growth in the LHEC Recirculating Linac Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Preliminary Study on Emittance Growth in the LHEC Recirculating Linac In this paper, we estimate the emittance growth in the LHeC recirculating Linac, the lattice design of which is presented in another paper of IPAC10 proceedings. The possible sources for emittance growth included here are: energy spread from RF acceleration in the SRF

  3. Alternative Fuels Data Center: Massachusetts Sees Significant Growth in

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

    Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure Massachusetts Sees Significant Growth in Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Massachusetts Sees Significant Growth in Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Massachusetts Sees Significant Growth in Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: Massachusetts Sees Significant Growth in Electric Vehicles

  4. Electricity Demand Evolution Driven by Storm Motivated Population Movement

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allen, Melissa R; Fernandez, Steven J; Fu, Joshua S; Walker, Kimberly A

    2014-01-01

    Managing the risks posed by climate change to energy production and delivery is a challenge for communities worldwide. Sea Level rise and increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to sea surface temperature rise force populations to move locations, resulting in changing patterns of demand for infrastructure services. Thus, Infrastructures will evolve to accommodate new load centers while some parts of the network are underused, and these changes will create emerging vulnerabilities. Combining climate predictions and agent based population movement models shows promise for exploring the universe of these future population distributions and changes in coastal infrastructure configurations. In this work, we created a prototype agent based population distribution model and developed a methodology to establish utility functions that provide insight about new infrastructure vulnerabilities that might result from these patterns. Combining climate and weather data, engineering algorithms and social theory, we use the new Department of Energy (DOE) Connected Infrastructure Dynamics Models (CIDM) to examine electricity demand response to increased temperatures, population relocation in response to extreme cyclonic events, consequent net population changes and new regional patterns in electricity demand. This work suggests that the importance of established evacuation routes that move large populations repeatedly through convergence points as an indicator may be under recognized.

  5. The general relativistic instability supernova of a supermassive population

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    III star (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect The general relativistic instability supernova of a supermassive population III star Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The general relativistic instability supernova of a supermassive population III star The formation of supermassive Population III stars with masses ≳10,000 M{sub ☉} in primeval galaxies in strong ultraviolet backgrounds at z ∼ 15 may be the most viable pathway to the formation of supermassive black holes by z ∼ 7.

  6. Growth histories in bimetric massive gravity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berg, Marcus; Buchberger, Igor; Enander, Jonas; Mrtsell, Edvard; Sjrs, Stefan E-mail: igor.buchberger@kau.se E-mail: edvard@fysik.su.se

    2012-12-01

    We perform cosmological perturbation theory in Hassan-Rosen bimetric gravity for general homogeneous and isotropic backgrounds. In the de Sitter approximation, we obtain decoupled sets of massless and massive scalar gravitational fluctuations. Matter perturbations then evolve like in Einstein gravity. We perturb the future de Sitter regime by the ratio of matter to dark energy, producing quasi-de Sitter space. In this more general setting the massive and massless fluctuations mix. We argue that in the quasi-de Sitter regime, the growth of structure in bimetric gravity differs from that of Einstein gravity.

  7. Philippines' downstream sector poised for growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-05-11

    This paper reports that the Philippines' downstream sector is poised for sharp growth. Despite a slip in refined products demand in recent years, Philippines products demand will rebound sharply by 2000, East-West Center (EWC), Honolulu, predicts. Philippines planned refinery expansions are expected to meet that added demand, EWC Director Fereidun Fesharaki says. Like the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, product specifications are changing, but major refiners in the area expect to meet the changes without major case outlays. At the same time, Fesharaki says, push toward deregulation will further bolster the outlook for the Philippines downstream sector.

  8. Crystal growth under external electric fields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Uda, Satoshi; Koizumi, Haruhiko; Nozawa, Jun; Fujiwara, Kozo

    2014-10-06

    This is a review article concerning the crystal growth under external electric fields that has been studied in our lab for the past 10 years. An external field is applied electrostatically either through an electrically insulating phase or a direct injection of an electric current to the solid-interface-liquid. The former changes the chemical potential of both solid and liquid and controls the phase relationship while the latter modifies the transport and partitioning of ionic solutes in the oxide melt during crystallization and changes the solute distribution in the crystal.

  9. CHARACTERIZING THE GALACTIC WHITE DWARF BINARY POPULATION WITH...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    population parameters, and the same sampling cadences and radial velocity errors as ... we apply the method to a sample of approx4000 WDs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. ...

  10. Sandia Energy - CFD-Populated Empirical Turbine Wake Model

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    parameters that effect tidal turbine wakes, such as yaw angle to incident flow and vertical blockage ratio, may be incorporated as part of future revisions of the CFD populated...

  11. National Population, Economic, and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Influenza with Strategic Recommendations | NISAC SheetsNational Population, Economic, and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza with Strategic Recommendations content top National Population, Economic, and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza with Strategic Recommendations Results of NISAC's two-year study on the potential impacts of pandemic influenza in the United States were published in October 2007 and released to the public in 2008. The summary report and supplemental

  12. CHARACTERIZING THE GALACTIC WHITE DWARF BINARY POPULATION WITH SPARSELY

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    SAMPLED RADIAL VELOCITY DATA (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect CHARACTERIZING THE GALACTIC WHITE DWARF BINARY POPULATION WITH SPARSELY SAMPLED RADIAL VELOCITY DATA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: CHARACTERIZING THE GALACTIC WHITE DWARF BINARY POPULATION WITH SPARSELY SAMPLED RADIAL VELOCITY DATA We present a method to characterize statistically the parameters of a detached binary sample-binary fraction, separation distribution, and mass-ratio distribution-using noisy radial

  13. Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    of Greater Prairie-Chickens | Department of Energy Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens This report summarizes the results of a seven-year, DOE-funded research project, conducted by researchers from Kansas State University and the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative, to assess the effects of wind energy development in

  14. Construction Cost Growth for New Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kubic, Jr., William L.

    2014-05-25

    Cost growth and construction delays are problems that plague many large construction projects including the construction of new Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. A study was conducted to evaluate cost growth of large DOE construction projects. The purpose of the study was to compile relevant data, consider the possible causes of cost growth, and recommend measures that could be used to avoid extreme cost growth in the future. Both large DOE and non-DOE construction projects were considered in this study. With the exception of Chemical and Metallurgical Research Building Replacement Project (CMRR) and the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility (MFFF), cost growth for DOE Nuclear facilities is comparable to the growth experienced in other mega construction projects. The largest increase in estimated cost was found to occur between early cost estimates and establishing the project baseline during detailed design. Once the project baseline was established, cost growth for DOE nuclear facilities was modest compared to non-DOE mega projects.

  15. Precision growth index using the clustering of cosmic structures and growth data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pouri, Athina; Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis E-mail: svasil@academyofathens.gr

    2014-08-01

    We use the clustering properties of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and the growth rate data provided by the various galaxy surveys in order to constrain the growth index ?) of the linear matter fluctuations. We perform a standard ?{sup 2}-minimization procedure between theoretical expectations and data, followed by a joint likelihood analysis and we find a value of ?=0.560.05, perfectly consistent with the expectations of the ?CDM model, and ?{sub m0}=0.290.01, in very good agreement with the latest Planck results. Our analysis provides significantly more stringent growth index constraints with respect to previous studies, as indicated by the fact that the corresponding uncertainty is only ?0.09?. Finally, allowing ? to vary with redshift in two manners (Taylor expansion around z=0, and Taylor expansion around the scale factor), we find that the combined statistical analysis between our clustering and literature growth data alleviates the degeneracy and obtain more stringent constraints with respect to other recent studies.

  16. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  17. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (? ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35 and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF models MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a ? gradient method whether using observed or modelled ? profiles.

  18. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  19. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  20. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations (1994)

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Documents Federal Register Vol. 59, No. 32 Wednesday, February 16, 1994 Title 3- The President Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994 Federal Actions To Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1-1.Implementation. 1-101. Agency Responsibilities. To the greatest extent practicable and per- mitted by law,

  1. Lid for improved dendritic web growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Duncan, Charles S.; Kochka, Edgar L.; Piotrowski, Paul A.; Seidensticker, Raymond G.

    1992-03-24

    A lid for a susceptor in which a crystalline material is melted by induction heating to form a pool or melt of molten material from which a dendritic web of essentially a single crystal of the material is pulled through an elongated slot in the lid and the lid has a pair of generally round openings adjacent the ends of the slot and a groove extends between each opening and the end of the slot. The grooves extend from the outboard surface of the lid to adjacent the inboard surface providing a strip contiguous with the inboard surface of the lid to produce generally uniform radiational heat loss across the width of the dendritic web adjacent the inboard surface of the lid to reduce thermal stresses in the web and facilitate the growth of wider webs at a greater withdrawal rate.

  2. Cadmium zinc sulfide by solution growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chen, Wen S.

    1992-05-12

    A process for depositing thin layers of a II-VI compound cadmium zinc sulfide (CdZnS) by an aqueous solution growth technique with quality suitable for high efficiency photovoltaic or other devices which can benefit from the band edge shift resulting from the inclusion of Zn in the sulfide. A first solution comprising CdCl.sub.2 2.5H.sub.2 O, NH.sub.4 Cl, NH.sub.4 OH and ZnCl.sub.2, and a second solution comprising thiourea ((NH.sub.2).sub.2 CS) are combined and placed in a deposition cell, along with a substrate to form a thin i.e. 10 nm film of CdZnS on the substrate. This process can be sequentially repeated with to achieve deposition of independent multiple layers having different Zn concentrations.

  3. Long-term control of root growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Burton, Frederick G. (West Richland, WA); Cataldo, Dominic A. (Kennewick, WA); Cline, John F. (Prosser, WA); Skiens, W. Eugene (Richland, WA)

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

  4. Abnormal grain growth in AISI 304L stainless steel

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shirdel, M.; Mirzadeh, H.; Parsa, M.H.

    2014-11-15

    The microstructural evolution during abnormal grain growth (secondary recrystallization) in 304L stainless steel was studied in a wide range of annealing temperatures and times. At relatively low temperatures, the grain growth mode was identified as normal. However, at homologous temperatures between 0.65 (850 C) and 0.7 (900 C), the observed transition in grain growth mode from normal to abnormal, which was also evident from the bimodality in grain size distribution histograms, was detected to be caused by the dissolution/coarsening of carbides. The microstructural features such as dispersed carbides were characterized by optical metallography, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray analysis, and microhardness. Continued annealing to a long time led to the completion of secondary recrystallization and the subsequent reappearance of normal growth mode. Another instance of abnormal grain growth was observed at homologous temperatures higher than 0.8, which may be attributed to the grain boundary faceting/defaceting phenomenon. It was also found that when the size of abnormal grains reached a critical value, their size will not change too much and the grain growth behavior becomes practically stagnant. - Highlights: Abnormal grain growth (secondary recrystallization) in AISI 304L stainless steel Exaggerated grain growth due to dissolution/coarsening of carbides The enrichment of carbide particles by titanium Abnormal grain growth due to grain boundary faceting at very high temperatures The stagnancy of abnormal grain growth by annealing beyond a critical time.

  5. Faster plant growth in a safe, economical way

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Faster plant growth in a safe, economical way Faster plant growth in a safe, economical way When applied to plants, Take-Off(tm) speeds crop emergence, increases growth rates and yields, improves stress tolerance and nutrient value, and reduces need for nitrogen fertilizers. April 3, 2012 Farmer in wheat field inspecting wheat Biagro Western offers Take-Off(tm), a metabolic plant stimulant that will allow farmers to increase crop carbon fixation and thereby increase nitrate uptake and nitrogen

  6. ARM - Lesson Plans: Plant Growth and Carbon Dioxide

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Plant Growth and Carbon Dioxide Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Lesson Plans: Plant Growth and Carbon Dioxide Objective The objective is to show how carbon dioxide in the air affects plant growth. Materials Each group of students will need the following: Graph paper Pencil

  7. Before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Job Creation and Regulatory

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Affairs - House Committee on Oversight and Governmant Reform | Department of Energy Economic Growth, Job Creation and Regulatory Affairs - House Committee on Oversight and Governmant Reform Before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Job Creation and Regulatory Affairs - House Committee on Oversight and Governmant Reform Written statement of Nicholas Whitcombe, Former Acting Director, Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program Submitted to the Subcommittee on Economic Growth,

  8. Laboratory Evidence for Stochastic Plasma-Wave Growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Austin, D. R.; Hole, M. J.; Robinson, P. A.; Cairns, Iver H.; Dallaqua, R.

    2007-11-16

    The first laboratory confirmation of stochastic growth theory is reported. Floating potential fluctuations are measured in a vacuum arc centrifuge using a Langmuir probe. Statistical analysis of the energy density reveals a lognormal distribution over roughly 2 orders of magnitude, with a high-field nonlinear cutoff whose spatial dependence is consistent with the predicted eigenmode profile. These results are consistent with stochastic growth and nonlinear saturation of a spatially extended eigenmode, the first evidence for stochastic growth of an extended structure.

  9. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Close, Dan; Sayler, Gary Steven; Xu, Tingting; Ripp, Steven Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  10. Decadal growth of black carbon emissions in India - article no. L02807

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sahu, S.K.; Beig, G.; Sharma, C.

    2008-01-15

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) based methodology has been used to construct the black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Indian geographical region. The distribution of emissions from a broader level to a spatial resolution of 1{sup o} x 1{sup o} grid has been carried out by considering micro level details and activity data of fossil fuels and bio-fuels. Our calculated total BC emissions were 1343.78 Gg and 835.50 Gg for the base years 2001 and 1991 respectively with a decadal growth of around 61%, which is highly significant. The district level analysis shows a diverse spatial distribution with the top 10% emitting districts contributing nearly 50% of total BC emission. Coal contributes more than 50% of total BC emission. All the metropolitan cities show high BC emissions due to high population density giving rise to high vehicular emissions and more demand of energy.

  11. WEF-Green Growth Partnerships Initiative | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    World Economic Forum Partner Global Green Growth Institute, Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), United Kingdom Government Sector Energy, Land, Climate Topics...

  12. Growth of epitaxial films of sodium potassium tantalate and niobate...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Growth of epitaxial films of sodium potassium tantalate and niobate on single-crystal ... John Z 2 ; Xue, Ziling 1 ; Beach, David B 2 + Show Author Affiliations ...

  13. Low Carbon Growth Plans: A Sectoral Approach to Climate Protection...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    to Climate Protection Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Low Carbon Growth Plans: A Sectoral Approach to Climate Protection AgencyCompany Organization:...

  14. Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Country Studies Program Jump to: navigation, search Name Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program AgencyCompany Organization Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the...

  15. Low-temperature plasma-deposited silicon epitaxial films: Growth...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Low-temperature plasma-deposited silicon epitaxial films: Growth and properties Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Low-temperature plasma-deposited silicon epitaxial films:...

  16. Green Growth Best Practice Initiative (GGBPI) | Open Energy Informatio...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    (ICI) of the German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature, Conservation, and Nuclear Safety, European Climate Foundation (ECF), Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI),...

  17. Recent Trends in Car Usage in Advanced Economies - Slower Growth...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Trends in Car Usage in Advanced Economies - Slower Growth Ahead? Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Recent Trends in Car Usage in Advanced Economies -...

  18. Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  19. Catalyzing Low Carbon Growth in Developing Countries | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth in Developing Countries: Public Finance Mechanisms to scale up private sector investment in climate solutions AgencyCompany Organization: United Nations Environment...

  20. Stress evolution during growth in direct-current-sputtered zinc...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    zinc oxide films at various oxygen flows Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Stress evolution during growth in direct-current-sputtered zinc oxide films at ...

  1. Suppression of Grain Boundaries in Graphene Growth on Superstructured...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: Suppression of Grain Boundaries in Graphene Growth on Superstructured Mn-Cu(111) Surface Authors: Chen, Wei ; Chen, Hua ; Lan, Haiping ; Cui, Ping ; Schulze, Tim P. ; Zhu, ...

  2. Amplified Demand for Solar Trackers to Boost Market Growth in...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Amplified Demand for Solar Trackers to Boost Market Growth in Middle East and Africa Home > Groups > Solar Permitting Roadmap Development Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by...

  3. TianDi Growth Capital | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Venture capital investor interested in projects in Wind energy, Electric vehicles, Energy-efficient lighting, Biodiesel and Clean water. References: TianDi Growth Capital1...

  4. Fatigue crack growth behavior of Ti-1100 at elevated temperature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maxwell, D.C.; Nicholas, T.

    1995-12-31

    Effects of temperature, frequency, and cycles with superimposed hold times are evaluated in Ti-1100 in order to study the complex creep-fatigue-environment interactions in this material. Crack growth rate tests conducted at cyclic loading frequency of 1.0 Hz show that raising the temperature from 593 to 650 C has only a slightly detrimental effect on crack growth rate, although these temperatures produce growth rates significantly higher than at room temperature. From constant {Delta}K tests, the effects of temperature at constant frequency show a minimum crack growth rate at 250 C. From the minimum crack growth rate at 250 C, the crack growth rate increases linearly with temperature. Increases in frequency at constant temperatures of 593 and 650 C produce a continuous decrease in growth rate in going from 0.001 to 1.0 Hz, although the behavior is primarily cycle dependent in this region. Tests at 1.0 Hz with superimposed hold times from 1 to 1,000 s are used to evaluate creep-fatigue-environment interactions. Hold times at maximum load are found to initially decrease and then increase the cyclic crack growth rate with increasing duration. This is attributed to crack-tip blunting during short hold times and environmental degradation at long hold times. Hold times at minimum load show no change in growth rates, indicating that there is no net environmental degradation to the bulk material beyond that experienced during the baseline 1 Hz cycling.

  5. Step-by-step growth of complex oxide microstructures (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Step-by-step growth of complex oxide microstructures Citation Details In-Document Search This content will become publicly available on June 10, 2016 Title:...

  6. Thermodynamic and kinetic control of the lateral Si wire growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dedyulin, Sergey N. Goncharova, Lyudmila V.

    2014-03-24

    Reproducible lateral Si wire growth has been realized on the Si (100) surface. In this paper, we present experimental evidence showing the unique role that carbon plays in initiating lateral growth of Si wires on a Si (100) substrate. Once initiated in the presence of ?5 ML of C, lateral growth can be achieved in the range of temperatures, T?=?450650?C, and further controlled by the interplay of the flux of incoming Si atoms with the size and areal density of Au droplets. Critical thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of the growth are discussed in detail.

  7. Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth in Developing...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth in Developing Asia AgencyCompany Organization Asian Development Bank Partner Japan, United Kingdom Sector Climate, Energy Focus Area Non-renewable Energy, Buildings,...

  8. Philippines-Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth in Developing Asia AgencyCompany Organization Asian Development Bank Partner Japan, United Kingdom Sector Climate, Energy Focus Area Non-renewable Energy, Buildings,...

  9. Indonesia-Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth in Developing Asia AgencyCompany Organization Asian Development Bank Partner Japan, United Kingdom Sector Climate, Energy Focus Area Non-renewable Energy, Buildings,...

  10. Vietnam-Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Growth in Developing Asia AgencyCompany Organization Asian Development Bank Partner Japan, United Kingdom Sector Climate, Energy Focus Area Non-renewable Energy, Buildings,...

  11. Atomistic mechanisms for bilayer growth of graphene on metal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Atomistic mechanisms for bilayer growth of graphene on metal substrates This content will become publicly available on January 8, 2016 Prev Next Title: Atomistic mechanisms...

  12. Green Growth in Motion: Sharing Korea's Experience | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    lt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map Language: English Green Growth in Motion: Sharing Korea's Experience Screenshot References:...

  13. Techniques for Growth of Lattice-Matched Semiconductor Layers...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for Growth of Lattice-Matched Semiconductor Layers For the fabrication of multi-junction solar cells, light emitting diodes, and high speed transistors National Renewable...

  14. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China Citation Details In-Document Search Title: The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of

  15. Methods for the survey and genetic analysis of populations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ashby, Matthew

    2003-09-02

    The present invention relates to methods for performing surveys of the genetic diversity of a population. The invention also relates to methods for performing genetic analyses of a population. The invention further relates to methods for the creation of databases comprising the survey information and the databases created by these methods. The invention also relates to methods for analyzing the information to correlate the presence of nucleic acid markers with desired parameters in a sample. These methods have application in the fields of geochemical exploration, agriculture, bioremediation, environmental analysis, clinical microbiology, forensic science and medicine.

  16. Tailored Marketing for Low-income and Under-Represented Population...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Tailored Marketing for Low-income and Under-Represented Population Segments (201) Tailored Marketing for Low-income and Under-Represented Population Segments (201) Better Buildings ...

  17. "Table HC15.13 Lighting Usage Indicators by Four Most Populated...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Lighting Usage Indicators by Four Most Populated States, 2005" " Million U.S. Housing Units" ,"Housing Units (millions)","Four Most Populated States" "Lighting Usage ...

  18. "Table HC15.8 Water Heating Characteristics by Four Most Populated...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Water Heating Characteristics by Four Most Populated States, 2005" " Million U.S. Housing Units" ,"Housing Units (millions)","Four Most Populated States" "Water Heating ...

  19. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  20. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to plan for future outbreaks. The LANL team was able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China...

  1. Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Copernicus Center, Warsaw). Computing cycles: DOE NERSC. 14 May 26, 2011 FLASHWDM Parallel Performance strong peak weak 15 May 26, 2011 Example 2: Core-Collapse SN...

  2. Susceptor for EFG crystal growth apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Menna, Andrew A. (Belmont, MA)

    1996-09-03

    An improved susceptor for a crucible/die assembly for growing tubular crystalline structures by the EFG process is provided. The crucible/die assembly comprises a die having a substantially polygonally-shaped top end surface for supporting a film of silicon feed material that is replenished from a melt in the crucible through capillary action. A hollow crystalline body is grown from the film of silicon material on the top end surface of the die. The heat susceptor is made of graphite or similar material, and has a peripheral configuration similar to that of the die. Further, the upper surface of the heat susceptor has a central land and a plurality of circumferentially-spaced upwardly extending projections. The central land thermally contacts a central portion of the lower surface of the crucible/die, and the projections thermally contact the lower surface of the crucible/die at its corners, whereby a temperature distribution is provided that permits growth of hollow bodies having more nearly constant thickness walls.

  3. World pipeline work set for rapid growth

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-08-01

    This paper reports on international pipeline construction which has entered a fast-growth period, accelerated by the new political and economic realities around the world and increasing demand for natural gas, crude oil and refined petroleum products. Many projects are under way or in planning for completion in the mid- to late 1990s in Europe, South America, Asia and the Middle East. Pipeline And Gas Journal's projection calls for construction or other work on 30,700 miles of new natural gas, crude oil and refined products pipelines in the 1992-93 period outside Canada and the U.S. These projects will cost an estimated $30 billion-plus. Natural gas pipelines will comprise most of the mileage, accounting for almost 23,000 miles at an estimated cost of $26.3 billion. Products pipelines, planned or under construction, will add another 5,800 miles at a cost of $2.8 billion. Crude oil pipelines, at a minimum, will total 1,900 new miles at a cost of slightly under $1 billion.

  4. Populations Voss, R.; /Garching, Max Planck Inst., MPE; Ajello...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    study the populations of X-ray sources in the Milky Way in the 15-55 keV band using a deep survey with the BAT instrument aboard the Swift observatory. We present the logN-logS...

  5. TWO POPULATIONS OF GAMMA-RAY BURST RADIO AFTERGLOWS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hancock, P. J.; Gaensler, B. M.; Murphy, T., E-mail: Paul.Hancock@Sydney.edu.au [Also at Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-sky Astrophysics (CAASTRO), The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. (Australia)

    2013-10-20

    The detection rate of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows is ?30% at radio wavelengths, much lower than in the X-ray (?95%) or optical (?70%) bands. The cause of this low radio detection rate has previously been attributed to limited observing sensitivity. We use visibility stacking to test this idea, and conclude that the low detection rate is instead due to two intrinsically different populations of GRBs: radio-bright and radio-faint. We calculate that no more than 70% of GRB afterglows are truly radio-bright, leaving a significant population of GRBs that lack a radio afterglow. These radio-bright GRBs have higher gamma-ray fluence, isotropic energies, X-ray fluxes, and optical fluxes than the radio-faint GRBs, thus confirming the existence of two physically distinct populations. We suggest that the gamma-ray efficiency of the prompt emission is responsible for the difference between the two populations. We also discuss the implications for future radio and optical surveys.

  6. Special population planner 4 : an open source release.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuiper, J.; Metz, W.; Tanzman, E.

    2008-01-01

    Emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and the recent California wildfires underscore the critical need to meet the complex challenge of planning for individuals with special needs and for institutionalized special populations. People with special needs and special populations often have difficulty responding to emergencies or taking protective actions, and emergency responders may be unaware of their existence and situations during a crisis. Special Population Planner (SPP) is an ArcGIS-based emergency planning system released as an open source product. SPP provides for easy production of maps, reports, and analyses to develop and revise emergency response plans. It includes tools to manage a voluntary registry of data for people with special needs, integrated links to plans and documents, tools for response planning and analysis, preformatted reports and maps, and data on locations of special populations, facility and resource characteristics, and contacts. The system can be readily adapted for new settings without programming and is broadly applicable. Full documentation and a demonstration database are included in the release.

  7. Growth mechanisms, polytypism, and real structure of kaolinite microcrystals

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Samotoin, N. D.

    2008-09-15

    The mechanisms of growth of kaolinite microcrystals (0.1-5.0 {mu}m in size) at deposits related to the cluvial weathering crust, as well as to the low-temperature and medium-temperature hydrothermal processes of transformations of minerals in different rocks in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Czechia, Vietnam, India, Cuba, and Madagascar, are investigated using transmission electron microscopy and vacuum decoration with gold. It is established that kaolinite microcrystals grow according to two mechanisms: the mechanism of periodic formation of two-dimensional nuclei and the mechanism of spiral growth. The spiral growth of kaolinite microcrystals is dominant and occurs on steps of screw dislocations that differ in sign and magnitude of the Burgers vector along the c axis. The layered growth of kaolinite originates from a widespread source in the form of a step between polar (+ and -) dislocations, i.e., a growth analogue of the Frank-Read dislocation source. The density of growth screw dislocations varies over a wide range and can be as high as {approx}10{sup 9} cm{sup -2}. Layered stepped kaolinite growth pyramids for all mechanisms of growth on the (001) face of kaolinite exhibit the main features of the triclinic 1Tc and real structures of this mineral.

  8. Controlled Nucleation and Growth of Pillared Paddlewheel Framework

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Nanostacks onto Chemically Modified Surfaces. (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Controlled Nucleation and Growth of Pillared Paddlewheel Framework Nanostacks onto Chemically Modified Surfaces. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Controlled Nucleation and Growth of Pillared Paddlewheel Framework Nanostacks onto Chemically Modified Surfaces. Abstract not provided. Authors: Gough, Dara ; Wheeler, David Roger ; Lambert, Timothy N. ; Rodriguez, Mark Andrew ; Spoerke, Erik David ;

  9. Structural study of growth, orientation and defects characteristics in the

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    functional microelectromechanical system material aluminium nitride (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Structural study of growth, orientation and defects characteristics in the functional microelectromechanical system material aluminium nitride Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Structural study of growth, orientation and defects characteristics in the functional microelectromechanical system material aluminium nitride The real structure and morphology of piezoelectric aluminum

  10. Modeling the effects of river flow on population dynamics of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and least terns (Sternula antillarum) nesting on the Missouri River

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buenau, Kate E.; Hiller, Tim L.; Tyre, Andrew J.

    2014-10-01

    Humans make extensive use of rivers and floodplains for economic benefits including agriculture, hydropower, commerce and recreation. Economic development of floodplains subsequently requires control of river levels to avoid flood damage. This process began in the Missouri River basin in the 1890s with the construction of a series of hydropower dams in Montana and escalated to new levels with the approval of the Pick-Sloan plan in the 1944 Flood Control Act. Maximizing these human uses of the river led to changes in and losses of hydrological and ecological processes, ultimately resulting in the federal listing of three fish and wildlife species under the Endangered Species Act: the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhyncus albus; 1983), the piping plover (Charadrius melodus; 1984), and the interior population of least tern (Sternula antillarum; 1985). The listing of terns and plovers did not affect river management until the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proposed to modify the governing document of the Missouri River Mainstem System, the Master Manual, a process which was completed in 2003. Although there was little disagreement over the habitat conditions that terns and plovers used for nesting, there was substantial disagreement over the amount of habitat necessary for terns and plovers to meet population recovery goals. Answering this question requires forecasting species-specific population responses to dynamic habitat affected by both human actions (reservoir management and habitat restoration) and natural variability in precipitation. Piping plovers and least terns nest along the Missouri River from Fort Peck, Montana to just north of Sioux City, Iowa (Figure 1). Both species prefer to nest on sand and fine gravel substrates with no or sparse vegetation cover (Prindiville Gaines and Ryan, 1988; Sherfy et al., 2012), such as riverine sandbars (emergent sandbar habitat; ESH). Piping plovers also nest on reservoir shorelines that lack vegetation cover (Anteau et al., 2012). The amount of ESH available for nesting in a given year is strongly affected by the amount of water entering the Missouri River system through precipitation and the management of water flow from six reservoirs operated by the USACE on the mainstem Missouri River. Prior to the construction of dams, the Missouri River experienced bimodal peak flows in spring and early summer in concordance with the melting of plains and mountain snowpack (Galat and Lipkin, 2000). Flows decreased during summer months, with river stage then dependent upon rainfall. The combination of consistent high flows and occasional extreme high flows, together with the meandering characteristic of the river, regularly reshaped and scoured vegetation from ESH.

  11. Workshop on nuclear power growth and nonproliferation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    It is widely viewed that an expansion of nuclear power would have positive energy, economic and environmental benefits for the world. However, there are concerns about the economic competitiveness, safety and proliferation and terrorism risks of nuclear power. The prospects for a dramatic growth in nuclear power will depend on the ability of governments and industry to address these concerns, including the effectiveness of, and the resources devoted to, plans to develop and implement technologies and approaches that strengthen nonproliferation, nuclear materials accountability and nuclear security. In his Prague speech, President Obama stated: 'we should build a new framework for civil nuclear cooperation, including an international fuel bank, so that countries can access peaceful power without increasing the risks of proliferation. That must be the right of every nation that renounces nuclear weapons, especially developing countries embarking on peaceful programs. And no approach will succeed if it's based on the denial of rights to nations that play by the rules. We must harness the power of nuclear energy on behalf of our efforts to combat climate change, and to advance peace opportunity for all people.' How can the President's vision, which will rekindle a vigorous public debate over the future of nuclear power and its relation to proliferation, be realized? What critical issues will frame the reemerging debate? What policies must be put into place to address these issues? Will US policy be marked more by continuity or change? To address these and other questions, the Los Alamos National Laboratory in cooperation with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars will host a workshop on the future of nuclear power and nonproliferation.

  12. Validating hydrodynamic growth in National Ignition Facility implosions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, J. L. Casey, D. T.; Hurricane, O. A.; Raman, K. S.; Robey, H. F.; Smalyuk, V. A.

    2015-05-15

    We present new hydrodynamic growth experiments at the National Ignition Facility, which extend previous measurements up to Legendre mode 160 and convergence ratio 4, continuing the growth factor dispersion curve comparison of the low foot and high foot pulses reported by Casey et al. [Phys. Rev. E 90, 011102(R) (2014)]. We show that the high foot pulse has lower growth factor and lower growth rate than the low foot pulse. Using novel on-capsule fiducial markers, we observe that mode 160 inverts sign (changes phase) for the high foot pulse, evidence of amplitude oscillations during the Richtmyer-Meshkov phase of a spherically convergent system. Post-shot simulations are consistent with the experimental measurements for all but the shortest wavelength perturbations, reinforcing the validity of radiation hydrodynamic simulations of ablation front growth in inertial confinement fusion capsules.

  13. Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoeoek, Mikael; Li, Junchen; Johansson, Kersti; Snowden, Simon

    2012-03-15

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems' growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid 'oil boom'-development-i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events-their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  14. String stabilized ribbon growth a method for seeding same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Sachs, Emanuel M. (39 Harding Ave., Belmont, MA 02178)

    1987-08-25

    This invention is a method of initiating or seeding the growth of a crystalline or polycrystalline ribbon by the String Stabilized Ribbon Growth Method. The method for seeding the crystal growth comprises contacting a melt surface with a seed and two strings used in edge stabilization. The wetted strings attach to the wetted seed as a result of the freezing of the liquid melt. Upon drawing the seed, which is attached to the strings, away from the melt surface a melt liquid meniscus, a seed junction, and a growth interface forms. Further pulling of the attached seed causes a crystal ribbon to grow at the growth interface. The boundaries of the growing ribbon are: at the top the seed junction, at the bottom the freezing boundary of the melt liquid meniscus, and at the edges frozen-in strings.

  15. Guidance system for low angle silicon ribbon growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Jewett, David N.; Bates, Herbert E.; Milstein, Joseph B.

    1986-07-08

    In a low angle silicon sheet growth process, a puller mechanism advances a seed crystal and solidified ribbon from a cooled growth zone in a melt at a low angle with respect to the horizontal. The ribbon is supported on a ramp adjacent the puller mechanism. Variations in the vertical position of the ribbon with respect to the ramp are isolated from the growth end of the ribbon by (1) growing the ribbon so that it is extremely thin, preferably less than 0.7 mm, (2) maintaining a large growth zone, preferably one whose length is at least 5.0 cm, and (3) spacing the ramp from the growth zone by at least 15 cm.

  16. Shallow melt apparatus for semicontinuous czochralski crystal growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wang, Tihu; Ciszek, Theodore F.

    2006-01-10

    In a single crystal pulling apparatus for providing a Czochralski crystal growth process, the improvement of a shallow melt In a single crystal pulling apparatus for providing a Czochralski crystal growth process, the improvement of a shallow melt crucible (20) to eliminate the necessity supplying a large quantity of feed stock materials that had to be preloaded in a deep crucible to grow a large ingot, comprising a gas tight container a crucible with a deepened periphery (25) to prevent snapping of a shallow melt and reduce turbulent melt convection; source supply means for adding source material to the semiconductor melt; a double barrier (23) to minimize heat transfer between the deepened periphery (25) and the shallow melt in the growth compartment; offset holes (24) in the double barrier (23) to increase melt travel length between the deepened periphery (25) and the shallow growth compartment; and the interface heater/heat sink (22) to control the interface shape and crystal growth rate.

  17. EVIDENCE FOR (AND AGAINST) PROGENITOR BIAS IN THE SIZE GROWTH OF COMPACT RED GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Keating, Stephanie K.; Abraham, Roberto G.; Schiavon, Ricardo; Graves, Genevieve; Damjanov, Ivana; Yan, Renbin; Newman, Jeffrey; Simard, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Most massive, passive galaxies are compact at high redshifts, but similarly compact massive galaxies are rare in the local universe. The most common interpretation of this phenomenon is that massive galaxies have grown in size by a factor of about five since redshift z = 2. An alternative explanation is that recently quenched massive galaxies are larger (a {sup p}rogenitor bias{sup )}. In this paper, we explore the importance of progenitor bias by looking for systematic differences in the stellar populations of compact early-type galaxies in the DEEP2 survey as a function of size. Our analysis is based on applying the statistical technique of bootstrap resampling to constrain differences in the median ages of our samples and to begin to characterize the distribution of stellar populations in our co-added spectra. The light-weighted ages of compact early-type galaxies at redshifts 0.5 < z < 1.4 are compared to those of a control sample of larger galaxies at similar redshifts. We find that massive compact early-type galaxies selected on the basis of red color and high bulge-to-total ratio are younger than similarly selected larger galaxies, suggesting that size growth in these objects is not driven mainly by progenitor bias, and that individual galaxies grow as their stellar populations age. However, compact early-type galaxies selected on the basis of image smoothness and high bulge-to-total ratio are older than a control sample of larger galaxies. Progenitor bias will play a significant role in defining the apparent size changes of early-type galaxies if they are selected on the basis of the smoothness of their light distributions.

  18. Respiratory health effects of the indoor environment in a population of Dutch children

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dijkstra, L.; Houthuijs, D.; Brunekreef, B.; Akkerman, I.; Boleij, J.S. )

    1990-11-01

    The effect of indoor exposure to nitrogen dioxide on respiratory health was studied over a period of 2 yr in a population of nonsmoking Dutch children 6 to 12 yr of age. Lung function was measured at the schools, and information on respiratory symptoms was collected from a self-administered questionnaire completed by the parents of the children. Nitrogen dioxide was measured in the homes of all children with Palmes' diffusion tubes. In addition, information on smoking and dampness in the home was collected by questionnaire. There was no relationship between exposure to nitrogen dioxide in the home and respiratory symptoms. Respiratory symptoms were found to be associated with exposure to tobacco smoke and home dampness. There was a weak, negative association between maximal midexpiratory flow (MMEF) and exposure to nitrogen dioxide. FEV1, peak expiratory flow, and MMEF were all negatively associated with exposure to tobacco smoke. Home dampness was not associated with pulmonary function. Lung function growth, measured over a period of 2 yr, was not consistently associated with any of the indoor exposure variables. The development of respiratory symptoms over time was not associated with indoor exposure to nitrogen dioxide. There was a significant association between exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in the home and the development of wheeze. There was also a significant association between home dampness and the development of cough.

  19. Methods of preparing flexible photovoltaic devices using epitaxial liftoff, and preserving the integrity of growth substrates used in epitaxial growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forrest, Stephen R; Zimmerman, Jeramy; Lee, Kyusang; Shiu, Kuen-Ting

    2015-01-06

    There is disclosed methods of making photosensitive devices, such as flexible photovoltaic (PV) devices, through the use of epitaxial liftoff. Also described herein are methods of preparing flexible PV devices comprising a structure having a growth substrate, wherein the selective etching of protective layers yields a smooth growth substrate that us suitable for reuse.

  20. Methods of preparing flexible photovoltaic devices using epitaxial liftoff, and preserving the integrity of growth substrates used in epitaxial growth

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forrest, Stephen R; Zimmerman, Jeramy; Lee, Kyusang; Shiu, Kuen-Ting

    2013-02-19

    There is disclosed methods of making photosensitive devices, such as flexible photovoltaic (PV) devices, through the use of epitaxial liftoff. Also described herein are methods of preparing flexible PV devices comprising a structure having a growth substrate, wherein the selective etching of protective layers yields a smooth growth substrate that us suitable for reuse.