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1

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

6

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2006  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation.

2006-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

7

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2005  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation. The project objective is to summarize the results o...

2006-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

8

New ZealandWORKING PAPER No. 12/2010 Are Forecast Updates Progressive?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether forecast updates are progressive and whether econometric models are useful in updating forecasts. The data set for the empirical analysis are for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. The actual series for both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate are always released by the government one quarter after the release of the revised forecast, and the actual values are not revised after they have been released. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and can be explained predominantly by intuition. Additionally, the one-, two- and three-quarter forecast errors are predictable using publicly available information for both the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate, which suggests that the forecasts can be improved.

Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer; Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Optimization and adjustment policy of two-echelon reservoir inventory management with forecast updates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A finite-horizon, periodic-review inventory model with inflow forecasting updates following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) in multiresevoirs is considered. This model introduces a new method of determining an operating policy in which ... Keywords: Adjustment, DP, Inflow forecasts, MMFE, Reservoir

Yingcheng Xu; Li Wang; Zhisong Chen; Siqing Shan; Guoping Xia

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

13

Forecasting Drought Using the Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID): A Case Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Drought forecasting can aid in developing mitigation strategies and minimizing economic losses. Drought may be forecast using a drought index, which is an indicator of drought. The agricultural reference index for drought (ARID) was used as a tool ...

Prem Woli; James Jones; Keith Ingram; Joel Paz

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Radwaste Desk Reference: Volume 5: Transportation Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This volume of the Radwaste Desk Reference contains fundamental practical and regulatory information on the transportation of radioactive waste. Because its information is based entirely on industry practice, the work can serve as an extensive "how-to" manual for both the newcomer and the experienced radwaste professional.

2000-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

15

Updating the EPRI Underground Transmission Systems Reference Book  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

EPRI is sponsoring the development of a new updated edition of the Underground Transmission Systems Reference Book (EPRI report TR-101670), which was originally published in 1992. Published in the first edition with a green cover, the book has become commonly known throughout the industry as the Green Book. Since publication of the first edition, there have been significant changes in both technology and the needs of utilities. This project will compile the most up-to-date technical information on underg...

2005-11-07T23:59:59.000Z

16

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

17

A Simple Seasonal Forecast Update of Tropical Cyclone Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple method based on the cumulative number of tropical cyclones (TCs) up to a given month in the early season is proposed to update the seasonal prediction of the annual number of TCs in a given ocean basin. For the western North Pacific, if ...

Johnny C. L. Chan

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

19

Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

Pennock, K.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012  

SciTech Connect

AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

Pennock, K.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Full report (4.1 mb) Full report (4.1 mb) Heating, cooling, & water heating equipment Appendix A - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case (1.9 mb) Appendix B - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Advanced Case (1.3 mb) Lighting and commercial ventilation & refrigeration equipment Appendix C - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case (1.1 mb) Appendix D - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Advanced Case (1.1 mb) Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency Release date: August 7, 2013 Energy used in the residential and commercial sectors provides a wide range

22

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2008-Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030 Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case EIA's decision to update the AEO2008 early-release reference case was motivated by the enactment in December 2007 of EISA2007, which contains many provisions that will significantly influence future energy trends. The specific EISA2007 provisions modeled in AEO2008 include updates to the renewable fuel standard (RFS) and the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs); updated and new appliance energy efficiency standards for boilers, dehumidifiers, dish-washers, clothes washers, and commercial walk-in refrigerators and freezers; lighting energy efficiency standards; provisions to reduce energy consumption in Federal buildings; and efficiency standards for in-dustrial electric motors.

23

Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration Using Retrospective Forecast Analogs in the Southeastern United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is needed for determining agricultural water demand and reservoir losses and driving hydrologic simulation models. This study was conducted to explore the application of the National ...

Di Tian; Christopher J. Martinez

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Currently, effective reservoir management systems play a very important part in exploiting reservoirs. Fully exploiting all the possible events for a petroleum reservoir is a challenge because of the infinite combinations of reservoir parameters. There is much unknown about the underlying reservoir model, which has many uncertain parameters. MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) is a more statistically rigorous sampling method, with a stronger theoretical base than other methods. The performance of the MCMC method on a high dimensional problem is a timely topic in the statistics field. This thesis suggests a way to quantify uncertainty for high dimensional problems by using the MCMC sampling process under the Bayesian frame. Based on the improved method, this thesis reports a new approach in the use of the continuous MCMC method for automatic history matching. The assimilation of the data in a continuous process is done sequentially rather than simultaneously. In addition, by doing a continuous process, the MCMC method becomes more applicable for the industry. Long periods of time to run just one realization will no longer be a big problem during the sampling process. In addition, newly observed data will be considered once it is available, leading to a better estimate. The PUNQ-S3 reservoir model is used to test two methods in this thesis. The methods are: STATIC (traditional) SIMULATION PROCESS and CONTINUOUS SIMULATION PROCESS. The continuous process provides continuously updated probabilistic forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale.

Liu, Chang

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Cost update technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning a reference uranium hexafluoride conversion plant  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this study is to update the cost estimates developed in a previous report, NUREG/CR-1757 (Elder 1980) for decommissioning a reference uranium hexafluoride conversion plant from the original mid-1981 dollars to values representative of January 1993. The cost updates were performed by using escalation factors derived from cost index trends over the past 11.5 years. Contemporary price quotes wee used for costs that have increased drastically or for which is is difficult to find a cost trend. No changes were made in the decommissioning procedures or cost element requirements assumed in NUREG/CR-1757. This report includes only information that was changed from NUREG/CR-1757. Thus, for those interested in detailed descriptions and associated information for the reference uranium hexafluoride conversion plant, a copy of NUREG/CR-1757 will be needed.

Miles, T.L.; Liu, Y.

1995-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Reference Manual for On-Line Monitoring of Water Chemistry and Corrosion: 1998 Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Corrosion in steam generating plants is reportedly responsible for over $6 billion each year in additional operating, maintenance, and replacement power costs. Consequently, the utility industry constantly seeks cost-effective methods of avoiding, controlling, and monitoring corrosion. Information in this updated reference manual should help utilities select the most appropriate instrumentation for on-line monitoring of water chemistry and corrosion in power plant systems.

1999-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

27

The Role of Monthly Updated Climate Forecasts in Improving Intraseasonal Water Allocation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning (e.g., water allocation) and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. However, the water allocated based on the climate ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Naresh Devineni; Susan Espinueva

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Objective Winter Temperature Forecasts: An Update and Extension to the Western United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study expands on previous studies (Harnack and Landsberg, 1978; Harnack, 1979) in that objective, statistical winter temperature forecast models are tested and verified for three additional winters (197981); models have been formulated and ...

Robert P. Harnack

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from NCEPs Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System with Reference to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Lumped Hydrologic Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are verified for the period April 2006August 2010. Verification is conducted for 1020 hydrologic basins in ...

James D. Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Jun Du

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This report updates the Reference Case presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 based on recently enacted legislation and the changing macroeconomic environment.

Alan Beamon

2009-04-21T23:59:59.000Z

31

Strategy for Updating EPRI's Transmission Line Reference Book: 115-138-kV Compact Line Design ("The Blue Book")  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

EPRI is sponsoring development of a new, updated edition of the Transmission Line Reference Book: 115-138 kV Compact Line Design, commonly known as the "Blue Book," which was originally published in 1978. The new edition will provide the most up-to-date technical information and practices on the design and maintenance of compact overhead lines. It will enable energy companies to construct cost-effective compact lines that produce optimal performances and to address the ability to maintain compact lines w...

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

32

Status Update on the Development of EPRI's Underground Distribution Systems Reference Book  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

EPRI is sponsoring the development of a first edition of the Underground Distribution Systems Reference Book . The book is scheduled to be published in 2009 and will join the widely used EPRI series of transmission and distribution reference books commonly known by the colors of their covers ("the red book," "the yellow book," and so on). The new reference book will provide a desk and field compendium on the general principles involved in the planning, design, manufacture, installation design, installati...

2008-03-21T23:59:59.000Z

33

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

34

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

35

Status Update on the Development of EPRI's Underground Distribution Systems Reference Book (Bronze Book)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

EPRI is developing a first edition of the Underground Distribution Systems Reference Book (Bronze Book), which is scheduled to be published in 2010. This book will join the EPRI series of Transmission and Distribution technical reference books, commonly known by the color of their covers. The book will provide a desk and field compendium on the general principles involved in the planning, design, manufacture, installation design, installation, testing, operation, and maintenance of underground distributi...

2009-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

36

Evaluation of Cold-Season Precipitation Forecasts Generated by the Hourly Updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The hourly updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is evaluated with regard to its ability to predict the areal extent of cold-season precipitation and accurately depict the timing and location of regions of snow, rain, and mixed-phase ...

Kyoko Ikeda; Matthias Steiner; James Pinto; Curtis Alexander

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

References  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Analysis Analysis Analysis - Home Analytical Dashboards Computerized Accident Incident Reporting and Recordkeeping System (CAIRS) Corporate Safety Analysis Trends Daily Occurrence Reports Electrical Safety Occurrences Final Occurrence Reports Access System Login Lessons Learned and Best Practices Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) Operating Experience Committee Operating Experience Level 1, 2, and 3 Documents Operating Experience Summaries Radiation Exposure Monitoring Systems (REMS) Safety Bulletins Safety and Health Alerts Safety Basis Information System (SBIS) Suspect/Counterfeit Items and Defective Items (SCI/DI) References HSS Logo References DOE O 210.2A, DOE Corporate Operating Experience Program (Apr 08, 2011) DOE O 210.2 Crosswalk DOE O 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting (Jun 27, 2011)

38

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

REFERENCES  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

205.1B 205.1B Approved 05-16-2011 Page 1 REFERENCES 1. INTRODUCTION 2. . Includes a list of sources cited in the directive and additional information sources to assist in implementing DOE Order 205.1B, Cyber Security Program. FEDERAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS a. Public Law (P.L.) 93-579, Privacy Act of 1974, as amended [Title 5 United States Code (U.S.C.) Section 552a]. . b. P.L. 104-106, Division E, Clinger Cohen Act (CCA) (formerly Information Technology Management Reform Act of 1996. c. P.L. 106-65, "National Defense Authorization Act [Section 3212(d)], enacted October 1999. d. P.L. 107-347, Title III, Federal Information Security Management Act of 2002 (FISMA), enacted December 2002. 3. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (OMB) CIRCULARS. Located at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_default/.

40

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Price Forecasts 4. Updated load-resource balance by zones\\ regions · Energy · Capacity 5. Impact. Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones 3. Updated demand forecasts for each

Taylor, James H.

42

A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...

Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecastsa quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

46

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

47

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the nave method), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

49

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

50

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

51

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series toAEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a portion of the gas price forecast through 2010 can beAEO 2006 reference case forecast to conduct a 25-yearAEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

56

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

57

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

58

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...

Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

An Hourly AssimilationForecast Cycle: The RUC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysisforecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Dezs Dvnyi; Stephen S. Weygandt; Kevin J. Brundage; John M. Brown; Georg A. Grell; Dongsoo Kim; Barry E. Schwartz; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Tracy Lorraine Smith; Geoffrey S. Manikin

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

63

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

64

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

66

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this forecast gap. Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

67

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

69

AMS FY10 Forecasting Process Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Page 1. Taking SCAP Beyond Compliance: Use cases to gaining better situational awareness Tiffany Jones Director, Public ...

2012-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

70

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

BARCOT, R.A.

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

73

An Assessment of the Quality of Forecast Trajectories  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast and analysis (reference) trajectories were computed from six sites over North America at three altitudes (500, 1000, and 1500 m above ground) twice a day for a one-year period using Nested Grid Model wind fields. The reference ...

Barbara J. B. Stunder

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Climate Funds Update | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Funds Update Funds Update Jump to: navigation, search Name Climate Funds Update Agency/Company /Organization Overseas Development Institute, The Green Political Foundation Sector Climate Topics Finance Resource Type Training materials, Lessons learned/best practices Website http://www.climatefundsupdate. References Climate Funds Update[1] Abstract Climate Funds Update is an independent website that provides information on the growing number of international climate finance initiatives designed to help developing countries address the challenges of climate change. Climate Funds Update Screenshot "Climate Funds Update is an independent website that provides information on the growing number of international climate finance initiatives designed to help developing countries address the challenges of climate change."

75

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

76

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

80

A Perfect Prognosis Scheme for Forecasting Warm-Season Lightning over Florida  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops and evaluates a statistical scheme for forecasting warm-season lightning over Florida. Four warm seasons of analysis data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network are ...

Phillip E. Shafer; Henry E. Fuelberg

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Barry E. Schwartz; Steven E. Koch; Edward J. Szoke

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Because poor visibility conditions have a considerable influence on airport traffic, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL)-Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (...

Samuel Rmy; Thierry Bergot

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

84

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

Andr Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

87

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

88

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

89

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

91

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

92

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

93

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

94

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

96

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

97

NIST Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... January 17, 2008 Press Release From Mayor Bloomberg's STATE OF THE CITY ADDRESS Page 8. JM Butler - NIST Update for SWGDAM ...

2008-07-23T23:59:59.000Z

98

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Weather Forecasting for Utility Companies For energy and utility companies, expected local weather conditions during the next day or two are  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SUBJECT: Revised Short-term Electricity Loads and Forecast 2008-2017 As part of the Mid-term Assessment-term electricity loads and forecast 2008-2017- boise 2012 .docx #12;6/28/2012 1 REVISED SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY and as input to the Resource Adequacy analysis, we have prepared an update to the regional load forecast

100

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

102

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a ...

Robert Rogers; Sim Aberson; Altug Aksoy; Bachir Annane; Michael Black; Joseph Cione; Neal Dorst; Jason Dunion; John Gamache; Stan Goldenberg; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan; John Kaplan; Bradley Klotz; Sylvie Lorsolo; Frank Marks; Shirley Murillo; Mark Powell; Paul Reasor; Kathryn Sellwood; Eric Uhlhorn; Tomislava Vukicevic; Jun Zhang; Xuejin Zhang

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a validation of the short and medium term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part of the US data set. The short term forecasts that extend up to 6-h ahead are based upon cloud motion derived from consecutive geostationary satellite images. The medium term forecasts extend up to 6-days-ahead and are modeled from gridded cloud cover forecasts from the US National Digital Forecast Database. The forecast algorithms are validated against ground measurements for seven climatically distinct locations in the United States for 1 year. An initial analysis of regional performance using satellite-derived irradiances as a benchmark reference is also presented. (author)

Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James; Hemker, Karl Jr. [ASRC, University at Albany, Albany, New York (United States); Renne, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado (United States); Hoff, Thomas E. [Clean Power Research, Napa, California (United States)

2010-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

105

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

106

EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Third Edition  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is a fully revised, updated, and expanded edition of the EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Second Edition (1024479), published by EPRI in 2011. The EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Third Edition provides the utility industry with a single, comprehensive, updated guidebook on live working standards, tools, and procedures.Results and ...

2012-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

107

EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Ed. 4  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is a fully revised, updated, and expanded edition of the EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Third Edition (1024142), published by EPRI in 2012. The EPRI Live Working Reference Book, Fourth Edition (3002000891) provides the utility industry with a single, comprehensive, updated guidebook on live working standards, tools, and procedures.BackgroundDeregulation demands higher levels of ...

2013-12-27T23:59:59.000Z

108

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

111

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts, Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. 3, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, January 20, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 12, 2011) Wholesale natural gas prices at most market locations east of the Mississippi River moved higher this week as a bitter cold moved into the eastern half of the country. West of the Mississippi River, a gradual warming trend resulted in lower prices. During the report week (January 5-12), the Henry Hub spot price increased $0.03 to $4.55 per million Btu (MMBtu). At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices increased during the report week, likely in part due to forecasts of continuing cold weather and improving economic conditions. The futures

115

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

117

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

118

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov The Parker Ranch installation in Hawaii Federal Energy Management Program Federal/Utility Partnership Working Group David McAndrew October 20, 2010 Rapid City, SD Washington Update 2 | Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov Presentation Overview * FEMP Updates * GHG Guidance Update * EISA Section 432 Update * Mark Your Calendar 3 | Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov * Richard Kidd is leaving FEMP - Will become Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability - Skye Schell will assume the role of interim Program Manager * Jesse Feinberg (Energetics) departed over the summer to attend grad school Columbia * Sarah Mabbitt (smabbitt@energetics.com)

122

FSMA update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The US Department of Agriculture released two new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act: the Foreign Supplier Verification Program and the Accreditation of Third-Party Auditors. FSMA update Publications aocs articles book books cdrom cdrom

123

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Forecasters Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Ivn Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

On Using Climatology as a Reference Strategy in the Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Brier and ranked probability skill scores are widely used as skill metrics of probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate. As skill scores, they compare the extent to which a forecast strategy outperforms a (usually simpler) reference ...

Simon J. Mason

2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Updated 611-Month Prediction of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An updated statistical scheme for forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin by 1 December of the previous year is presented. Previous research by Gray and colleagues at Colorado State University showed that a ...

Philip J. Klotzbach; William M. Gray

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Due to the observance of Veterans Day on Monday, November 12, the next Natural Gas Weekly Update, will be published on Tuesday, November 13, 2001. Due to the observance of Veterans Day on Monday, November 12, the next Natural Gas Weekly Update, will be published on Tuesday, November 13, 2001. Overview: Monday, November 5, 2001 Spot prices at the Henry Hub began the week up then trended down to end the week 10 cents below the previous Friday at $2.96 per MMBtu. This represents a reversal from the pattern of a week earlier when the Henry Hub price gained more than $0.70 per MMBtu on a Friday-to-Friday basis. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in most parts of the country last week along with forecasts calling for the moderate weather to continue into the weekend contributed to the decline in prices. .(See Temperature Map) (See Deviation Map) Estimates of weekly net additions to storage again were below normal levels for this time of year but the total working gas in storage remained above average and well above volumes at this time last year. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil moved down $1.95 per barrel for the week to end trading on Friday at $20.20 or $3.48 per MMBtu.

130

Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.

Petty, S.; Porro, G.

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

132

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

133

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

135

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

136

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Federal Energy Management Federal Energy Management Program Federal/Utility Partnership Working Group David McAndrew April 14, 2010 Providence RI Washington Update Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 Presentation Overview * EO 13514 - Strategic Sustainability Plans * DOE's approach * EISA section 432 update * Outreach Opportunities - Federal Energy Management Awards - Energy Empowers Campaign - GovEnergy Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 4 EO13514 Sustainability Plans Update Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 5 EO 13514 Goals In addition to GHG goals, the EO requires agencies to meet sustainability targets, including: * 30% reduction in vehicle fleet petroleum use by 2020; * 26% reduction in potable, industrial, landscaping, and agricultural water consumption by 2020;

137

Update Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Washington, DC 20585This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIAs data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.

unknown authors

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Recent STRBase Updates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... page. 30-Jan-2012 Updates to NIST publications and presentations; added new variant alleles; updated cat STRs section. 9 ...

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

139

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

140

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Critical Update - Renwable Guidance Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Renewable Update Renewable Update FUPWG May 1, 2007 Chandra Shah, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 303-384-7557, chandra_shah@nrel.gov Presentation Overview * Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 05) Federal Renewable Goal * Executive Order 13423 & Instructions * EPACT/EO Renewable Goal Guidance * Federal Renewable Use Update * Innovative Renewable Projects 3  Section 203 (a) Requirement- The President, acting through the Secretary, shall seek to ensure that, to the extent economically feasible and technically practicable, of the total amount of electric energy the Federal Government consumes during any fiscal year, the following amounts shall be renewable energy:  (1) Not less than 3% in FY07-09  (2) Not less than 5% in FY10-FY12  (3) Not less than 7.5% in FY13 & each fiscal year thereafter.

144

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Colorado uranium production forecast for 1981 to 1990. [Monograph  

SciTech Connect

A decline in demand for yellowcake, a single-use commodity of which Colorado is the fourth largest producer, is influenced by several interrelated factors. The revised forecasts for 1990 assume that electric-power capacity will be lower than previous forecasts and that domestic production will supply 80% of the yellowcake. Production will be lower until inventory depletion allows a balanced market. Production rates will begin increasing after 1987. An appendix summarizes the factors influencing production rates. 10 references, 3 tables.

Morse, J.G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

148

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations. This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This years goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

149

EEI Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EEI Update EEI Update Steve Kiesner Director, National Customer Markets Edison Electric Institute FUPWG October 25, 2011 Philadelphia, PA Today's Discussion Current Electricity Landscape  Emerging Issues  Infrastructure investment  M&A  Political landscape  Grid modernization Changing Electric Utility Landscape  Utility industry has embarked on a major investment cycle, driven by the need to address:  Generation, Transmission, and Distribution to ensure reliability  Energy Efficiency and deploying new technologies (SG, renewables)  Significant Environmental CAPEX  Concerns about the Environment has Changed our Power Supply Mix  Short -term: Rely on Energy Efficiency, Renewables, and Natural Gas  Medium-term: Targets should be harmonized with the development

150

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Federal Energy Management Program Federal Energy Management Program Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting: Washington Update Dr. Timothy Unruh October 25-26, 2011 Philadelphia, PA 2 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov Presentation Overview  Federal Government Goals and Status  FEMP Update  UESC Program Overview and Goals  Mark Your Calendar: Spring 2012 FUPWG 3 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov FEMP's Mission FEMP provides the services, tools, and expertise to Federal agencies to help them achieve their legislated and executive ordered energy, greenhouse gas, and water goals. This is delivered through project financing services, technical assistance, and communications and training. 4 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov

151

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

October 16, 2012 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 2 Presentation Overview The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 Commit to Efficiency Customer Service Other FEMP Activities Update on Presidential Memo Commit to Efficiency OMB M-12-21 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 Commit to Efficiency Customer Service Other FEMP Activities Update on Presidential Memo Commit to Efficiency OMB M-12-21 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 4 The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 * What the Act does - Requires Training of Federal Employees to maintain core competency in their ability to operate and maintain Federal Facilities

152

Progress Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Update Update FALL 2013 Learn more at eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/tech_assistance/betterplants/ The Better Buildings, Better Plants Program is a national partnership initiative that challenges industry to set and meet ambitious energy-saving targets. Across the United States, manufacturers spend more than $200 billion each year to power their plants. 1 The industrial sector has the potential to invest more than $100 billion in cost-effective, energy-efficiency technologies by 2020, which would result in annual energy savings of almost $50 billion. 2 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) data demonstrates that many facilities can save 15% or more annually through projects with payback periods of less than three years. 3 Better Plants Partners are working with DOE

153

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analysts earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

155

Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed Before 1980 |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed Before 1980 Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed Before 1980 Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed Before 1980 The files on this page contain commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed before 1980, organized by building type and location. These U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reference buildings are complete descriptions for whole building energy analysis. You can also return to a summary of building types and climate zones and information about other building vintages. These files are updated regularly. There are two versions of these files on this page. Version 1.3_5.0 was updated September 27, 2010 and Version 1.4_7.2 was updated November 13, 2012. You can also view related resources: an archive of past reference buildings files

156

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

157

Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

Not Available

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

159

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

160

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

162

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

163

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

164

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

165

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

References - CECM  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

help annotate Contents Next: About this document Up: RamanujanModular Equations, Previous: Sources [Annotate] [Shownotes]. References.

167

ESnet Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ESnet Update ESnet Update Winter 2008 Joint Techs Workshop Joe Burrescia ESnet General Manager January 21, 2008 Energy Sciences Network Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Networking for the Future of Science 2 TWC SNLL YUCCA MT PNNL LIGO I N E E L LANL SNLA Allied Signal ARM KCP NOAA OSTI ORAU SRS JLAB PPPL Lab DC Offices MIT ANL BNL FNAL AMES N R E L LLNL GA DOE-ALB OSC GTN NNSA International (high speed) 10 Gb/s SDN core 10G/s IP core 2.5 Gb/s IP core MAN rings (≥ 10 G/s) Lab supplied links OC12 ATM (622 Mb/s) OC12 / GigEthernet OC3 (155 Mb/s) 45 Mb/s and less NNSA Sponsored (12) Joint Sponsored (3) Other Sponsored (NSF LIGO, NOAA) Laboratory Sponsored (6) 42 end user sites SINet (Japan) Russia (BINP) CA*net4 France GLORIAD (Russia, China) Korea (Kreonet2

168

Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

Not Available

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

NIST Deputy Director's Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Page 10. Safety at NIST -- update Update on NRC actions from plutonium spill FY09 highlights Develop high level NIST requirements ...

2012-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

170

APS Technical Update Index  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updates Technical Updates are notices that share beamline technical and operations developments with APS users. For additional information contact the APS User Technical Interface....

171

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

V-222: SUSE update for Filezilla | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

2: SUSE update for Filezilla 2: SUSE update for Filezilla V-222: SUSE update for Filezilla August 20, 2013 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: SUSE has issued an update for filezilla PLATFORM: openSUSE 12.2 and 12.3 ABSTRACT: This vulnerability can be exploited by malicious people to potentially compromise a user's system REFERENCE LINKS: Secunia Advisory SA54533 FileZilla Change Log CVE-2013-4206 CVE-2013-4207 CVE-2013-4208 CVE-2013-4852 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Medium DISCUSSION: FileZilla was updated to version 3.7.3 to add various features, fix bugs and also security issues in the embedded putty ssh client IMPACT: System Access SOLUTION: Apply updated packages via the zypper package manager Addthis Related Articles V-213: PuTTY SSH Handshake Integer Overflow Vulnerabilities V-102: SUSE update for flash-player V-003: Suse Update For Mozillafirefox - Critical

175

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

April 11, 2012 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 2 1. Status of Federal Goals 2. Presidential Memo * Key provisions * Role of UESCs * Agency commitments 3. Meeting Memo's Goals * New Programs * Financing * Reporting and Resources 4. FEMP Update 5. Mark Your Calendar: GovEnergy 2012 Agenda Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 $169 $181 $291 $281 $335 $469 $1,081 $3,544 $2,565 $122 $54 $92 $70 $139 $110 $142 $64 $165 $429 $36 $123 $314 $166 $356 $457 $563 $369 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions Fiscal Year Direct Appropriations UESC ESPC $271 $505 $666 (ESPC Hiatus) $720 $640 $935 $1,681 $4,171 $3,100 Status of Federal Goals Federal Facilities: Investment in Energy Efficient Projects

176

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CHP (onsite and wholesale) in California ­ accounts for the AB 32 mandates, RPS, and CPUC CHP Existing Renewable Generation In-State Renewable Energy · For all RPS-eligible generators, staff averaged the 2006-2011 QFER reported generation · In-state RPS-eligible with COD after 1/1/2011 and prior to 12

177

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Reference Tools  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Reference Tools Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Name that compound: The numbers game for CFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, and Halons Conversion Tables and More Glossary Acronyms CDIAC's...

179

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for normal forces and the one for break drivers, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

PRICE & AVAILABILITY UPDATES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

4.3 Price & Availability Updates File when titles transferred to new supplier..................... 5 4.4 Format of the Day element in Availability Dates......................................................... 5 5 Example of Price & Availability Updates transmission....................................................... 5 6 Price & Availability Updates file header............................................................................. 7 Example of a complete Price & Availability Updates file header....................................... 12 7 Price & Availability Updates message level content...................................................... 13 8 Price & Availability Updates line level content............................................................... 14 Example showing Order "line level " segments NOI to DNC.............................................. 21 9 Price & Availability Updates message trailer.................................................................... 21 10 Price & Availability Updates file trailer............................................................................ 22 NOTE: The TRADACOMS Price & Availability Updates message is not recommended for new implementations. The recommended formats for the communication of book product information are the ONIX for Books Product Information message and Supply Update message.

unknown authors

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

182

A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

183

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

184

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Future world oil prices: modeling methodologies and summary of recent forecasts  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends are reviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil price forecasts, and, then possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, oil price projections are given for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 69 references, 3 figures, 10 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Forecasting world oil prices: the evolution of modeling methodologies and summary of recent projections  

SciTech Connect

This paper has three main objectives: (1) to review and summarize the varios methodologies that have been developed to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends, (2) to summarize recent world oil price forecasts, and, when possible, discuss the methodologies used in formulating those forecasts, and (3) utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologies and the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent and projected oil market trends, to give oil price projections for the time period 1987 to 2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significant evolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex and constantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, a consensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts is yet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that both economic and political factors should be considered when making price projections. Likewise, there is no consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely. However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further, an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oil prices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices are expected to increase by between 2 and 3% during the 1990s and beyond. Forecasters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. 68 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Curlee, T.R.

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Verification of clear-air turbulence forecasts June 2002, KNMI  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to increase potential energy. Under these conditions turbulence will increase in intensity until different weather conditions. It often occurs in relatively clear skies and is then referred to as clear-airVerification of clear-air turbulence forecasts A. Overeem June 2002, KNMI Technisch rapport #12

Stoffelen, Ad

189

Forecasting of mine price for central Appalachian steam coal  

SciTech Connect

In reaction to Virginia's declining share of the steam coal market and the subsequent depression in southwest Virginia's economy, an optimization model of the central Appalachian steam coal market was developed. The input to the cost vector was the delivered cost of coal, which is comprised of the mine price (FOB) and transportation cost. One objective of the study was to develop a purchasing model that could be used to minimize the cost of coal procurement over a multi-period time span. The initial case study used a six-month period (7/86-12/86); this requires short-term, forecasts of the mine price of coal. Mine-cost equations and regression models were found to be inadequate for forecasting the mine price of coal. Instead forecasts were generated using modified time series models. This paper describes the application of classical time-series modeling to forecasting the mine price of coal in central Appalachia; in particular, the special modification to the classical methodology needed to generate short-term forecasts and their confidence limits and the need to take into account market-specific considerations such as the split between long-term contracts and the spot market. Special consideration is given to forecasting the spot market. 7 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.

Smith, M.L.

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

191

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

An on-the-fly reference counting garbage collector for Java  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Reference counting is not naturally suitable for running on multiprocessors. The update of pointers and reference counts requires atomic and synchronized operations. We present a novel reference counting algorithm suitable for a multiprocessor that does ...

Yossi Levanoni; Erez Petrank

2001-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

reference case | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

reference case reference case Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 1, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion BTUs, and quantifies the energy prices using U.S. dollars. The data is broken down into total production, imports, exports, consumption, and prices for energy types. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO consumption EIA export import production reference case total energy Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary - Reference Case (xls, 112.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

196

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

203

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 14 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frdric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

207

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

208

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

210

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

213

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

214

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Reference Shelf  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Reference Shelf Reference Shelf Reference Shelf Find reference sources Questions? 505-667-5809 Email Biography Biographies of Women in Science Biography.com Marquis Who's Who NobelPrize.org Nobel Prize Internet Archive Calculators Currency Converter OnlineConversion.com Wolfram|Alpha Computational Knowledge Engine Dictionaries Oxford English Dictionary Merriam-Webster Dictionary DOD Dictionary of Military Terms Encyclopedias Britannica Online Columbia Encyclopedia Wikipedia Grants & Funding DOE Office of Science Grants & Contracts National Science Foundation National Institutes of Health Grants.Gov FedBizOpps.gov Los Alamos Info Los Alamos County Los Alamos Historical Society University of New Mexico - Los Alamos Campus Maps Atlapedia Online Perry-Casteneda Library Map Collection U.S. Gazetteer

220

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

EPRI Live Working Reference Book Edition 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report contains updated information on the 2012 edition of the National Electrical Safety Code (NESC) and on glass insulators that became available after publication of the first edition of the Tan Book (Electric Power Research Institute [EPRI] report 1018974) in 2009. The 2009 first edition of the this report was a fully revised, updated, and expanded version of the Live Working Guide for Overhead Lines (EPRI report 1008747), published in 2004. The new EPRI Live Working Reference Book provides the ...

2011-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

225

win0203SelUpdates0303.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

En En ergy Outlook -- October 2002 Updated Feb 2003) 1 Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 Selected Table and Figure Updates Based on the March 2003 Short-Term Energy Outlook Figure WF1. U.S. Winter Natural Gas Demand (Year-to-Year Percent Change) Table WF1. Illustrative Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Actual Actual Actual Base Forecast Natural Gas (Midwest) Consumption (mcf) 81.7 99.1 81.3 92.1 Avg. Price ($/mcf) 6.69 9.54 7.33 8.43 Expenditures ($) 546 945 596 776 Heating Oil (Northeast) Consumption (gals) 644 731 584 751 Avg. Price ($/gal) 1.16 1.37 1.10 1.37 Expenditures ($) 751 999 643 1029 Propane (Midwest) Consumption (gals) 807 979 803 910 Avg. Price ($/gal)

226

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

228

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

231

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Edison News and Updates  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

News and Updates Edison News and Updates Subject Date Author Edison will be reserved for system debugging every other day starting from 10102013 Thursday 16:00 PDT 2013-12-13...

233

Timeline and updates  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updates Timeline and Updates CDT 1.10 was set to default on Edison November 27, 2013 | 0 Comments During today's maintenance, we upgraded the Cray Developer Toolkit (CDT) version...

234

V-136: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - April 2013 | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

6: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - April 2013 6: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - April 2013 V-136: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - April 2013 April 17, 2013 - 1:46am Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - April 2013 PLATFORM: Oracle All Applicable Version(s) ABSTRACT: Several vulnerabilities addressed in this Critical Patch Update affect multiple products REFERENCE LINKS: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High DISCUSSION: A Critical Patch Update (CPU) is a collection of patches for multiple security vulnerabilities. Critical Patch Update patches are usually cumulative, but each advisory describes only the security fixes added since the previous Critical Patch Update advisory. Thus, prior Critical Patch Update advisories should be reviewed for information regarding earlier

235

V-004: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2012 | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2012 4: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2012 V-004: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2012 October 17, 2012 - 6:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2012 PLATFORM: Oracle All Applicable Version(s) ABSTRACT: October 2012 Critical Patch Update, security vulnerability fixes for proprietary components of Oracle Linux will be announced in Oracle Critical Patch Updates. REFERENCE LINKS: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High DISCUSSION: A Critical Patch Update is a collection of patches for multiple security vulnerabilities. Critical Patch Update patches are usually cumulative but each advisory describes only the security fixes added since the previous Critical Patch Update advisory. IMPACT:

236

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

237

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

238

Nuclear Science References Database  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Nuclear Science References (NSR) database together with its associated Web interface, is the world's only comprehensive source of easily accessible low- and intermediate-energy nuclear physics bibliographic information for more than 210,000 articles since the beginning of nuclear science. The weekly-updated NSR database provides essential support for nuclear data evaluation, compilation and research activities. The principles of the database and Web application development and maintenance are described. Examples of nuclear structure, reaction and decay applications are specifically included. The complete NSR database is freely available at the websites of the National Nuclear Data Center http://www.nndc.bnl.gov/nsr and the International Atomic Energy Agency http://www-nds.iaea.org/nsr.

B. Pritychenko; E. B?tk; B. Singh; J. Totans

2013-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

239

STANDARD REFERENCE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The profession is strongly urged to use the standard reference on the financial framework in the EU, concerning endorsed IFRS in order to give a clear message to the market and to users of financial statements in and outside the EU.

unknown authors

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Technical Reference | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Reference Reference Dataset Summary Description Technical Reference for Hydrogen Compatibility of Materials Source Sandia National Laboratories Date Released June 03rd, 2010 (4 years ago) Date Updated September 27th, 2012 (2 years ago) Keywords Compatibility of Materials hydrogen NREL Sandia Technical Database Technical Reference Data application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet icon 1100_cia85_ten_fra_fat.xlsx (xlsx, 60.9 KiB) application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet icon 1100_san10_fra_fat.xlsx (xlsx, 58.5 KiB) application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet icon 1100_san10b_fra_fat.xlsx (xlsx, 59.4 KiB) application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet icon 1100_san11_fra_fat.xlsx (xlsx, 48.4 KiB)

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CEPEL e UENF. Abstract. This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

Leonardo Rocha Souza; Lacir Jorge Soares; Leonardo Rocha Souza; Epge Fundao; Getlio Vargas; Lacir Jorge Soares

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

APS Technical Update - No. 11  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

July 30, 1997 July 30, 1997 APS TECHNICAL UPDATE - No. 11 Subject: Experiment Hall Surveying References To facilitate the alignment of beamline components in the Experiment Hall, a number of APS surveying network fiducials have been provided by the APS. This note provides a description of these fiducials for future reference. The fiducials include: a beam center line drawn on the floor for each bending magnet (BM) and insertion device (ID) beamline, four survey monuments per sector, and an array of reference markers along each beamline. The beam centerline drawn on the Experiment Hall floor indicates the nominal position of the center of an undeflected BM or ID beam. This line can be used for the rough alignment of beamline components. For higher precision, four survey monuments have been installed in the

243

School of Psychology, QUB Dr. Ruth Lowry & Dr. Norma Rainey -1 -Updated September 2008  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

School of Psychology, QUB Dr. Ruth Lowry & Dr. Norma Rainey - 1 - Updated September 2008 A guide at a conference) #12;School of Psychology, QUB Dr. Ruth Lowry & Dr. Norma Rainey - 2 - Updated September 2008 so in the reference list. #12;School of Psychology, QUB Dr. Ruth Lowry & Dr. Norma Rainey - 3 - Updated September 2008

Müller, Jens-Dominik

244

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

245

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

246

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

247

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

248

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

249

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

250

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

251

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

253

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

254

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

256

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (locality), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numericalstatistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in nearreal time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecastersand between forecasters and usersregarding the meaning of the phrase good (bad) weather forecasts. These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Coal data: A reference  

SciTech Connect

This report, Coal Data: A Reference, summarizes basic information on the mining and use of coal, an important source of energy in the US. This report is written for a general audience. The goal is to cover basic material and strike a reasonable compromise between overly generalized statements and detailed analyses. The section ``Supplemental Figures and Tables`` contains statistics, graphs, maps, and other illustrations that show trends, patterns, geographic locations, and similar coal-related information. The section ``Coal Terminology and Related Information`` provides additional information about terms mentioned in the text and introduces some new terms. The last edition of Coal Data: A Reference was published in 1991. The present edition contains updated data as well as expanded reviews and additional information. Added to the text are discussions of coal quality, coal prices, unions, and strikes. The appendix has been expanded to provide statistics on a variety of additional topics, such as: trends in coal production and royalties from Federal and Indian coal leases, hours worked and earnings for coal mine employment, railroad coal shipments and revenues, waterborne coal traffic, coal export loading terminals, utility coal combustion byproducts, and trace elements in coal. The information in this report has been gleaned mainly from the sources in the bibliography. The reader interested in going beyond the scope of this report should consult these sources. The statistics are largely from reports published by the Energy Information Administration.

Not Available

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001

271

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

272

U-019: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2011 | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

19: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2011 19: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2011 U-019: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2011 October 25, 2011 - 8:46am Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - October 2011 . PLATFORM: Oracle All Applicable Version(s) ABSTRACT: October 2011 Critical Patch Update, security vulnerability fixes for proprietary components of Oracle Linux will be announced in Oracle Critical Patch Updates. Reference LINKS: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory Oracle Risk Matrix JC3-CIRC Tech Bulletin U-014 Oracle Patch Table IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High Discussion: A Critical Patch Update is a collection of patches for multiple security vulnerabilities. Critical Patch Update patches are usually cumulative but each advisory describes only the security fixes added since the previous

273

Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed In or After 1980 |  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed In or After Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed In or After 1980 Existing Commercial Reference Buildings Constructed In or After 1980 The files on this page contain commercial reference building models for existing buildings constructed in or after 1980, organized by building type and location. These U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reference buildings are complete descriptions for whole building energy analysis. You can also return to a summary of building types and climate zones and information about other building vintages. These files are updated regularly. There are two versions of these files on this page. Version 1.3_5.0 was updated September 27, 2010 and Version 1.4_7.2 was updated November 13, 2012. You can also view related resources: an archive of past reference buildings files

274

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

275

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

276

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

277

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Subject: References:  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Subject: Subject: References: DEAR 970.3102-2 Compensation for personal services DEAR 970.5204-13 Allowable costs and fixed-fee (Management and operating contracts) DEAR 970.5204-14 Allowable costs and fixed-fee (support contracts) When is this ~\.cquisition Letter (AL) Effective? This AL is effective 10 days from the date of issuance. This gui~ce supersedes any previous statutory cap on executive compensation. Existing contracts need to be reviewed to determine whether contract terms and conditions are consistent with the guidance in this AL, or whether contract modifications are necessary. When Does this AL Expire? This AL remain;; in effect until superseded or canceled. Whom do you Contact for More Information? Contact the Office of Procurement and Assistance Policy, for questions pertaining to the

289

GUA Update, March 2013  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Gasification Users Group (GUA) Update is published quarterly and provides information on gasification projects in development and in construction, along with a summary of new integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)/ gasification technology developments. The following articles are featured in this issue of the GUA Update:Quarterly SummaryOngoing U.S. Energy Program UpdatesEuropean Union Plans Support of Multiple CCS ...

2013-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

290

Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Updated Capital Cost Estimates Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants April 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.

291

Programs (ASD(NCB)) References: See Enclosure  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accordance with the authority in DoDD 5134.01 (Reference (c)) to update the responsibilities and functions, relationships, and authorities of the ASD(NCB), under the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD(AT&L)). 2. APPLICABILITY. This Directive applies to OSD, the Military Departments, the Office of

unknown authors

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 percent warmer than normal. Other Market Trends: EIA Releases An Updated Mexico Country Analysis Brief: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on January 3, 2007, published...

293

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Presentation covers an update on power purchase agreements and is given at the Spring 2011 Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) meeting.

294

Electricity Monthly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

CorrectionUpdate November 28, 2012 Map of Electric System Selected for Daily Peak Demand was replaced with the correct map showing Selected Wholesale Electricity and Natural Gas...

295

US Biofuels Quality Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... US Biofuels Quality Update Teresa L. Alleman ... 4 Biodiesel Station Locations Biodiesel is an advanced biofuel under RFS and is sold everywhere ...

2013-08-28T23:59:59.000Z

296

update: Decomposing beta diversity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on Island Biological Diversity is to influence the policy-update Decomposing beta diversity Baselga (2009) proposes apatterns of beta diversity into effects of nestedness and

Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Release: Thursday, August 26, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, August 18, 2010) Natural...

298

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Release: Thursday, November 4, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, October 27, 2010) As the...

299

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

7, 2009 Next Release: May 14, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 6, 2009) Natural gas...

300

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Next Release: Thursday, May 13, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 5, 2010) Since...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2009 Next Release: January 23, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 14, 2009) In the...

302

Smart grid update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... 100 Bureau Drive, M/S 8100 Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8100. *. Bookmark and Share. Smart Grid Update. 2013. June; October.

2013-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

303

win0203SelUpdates0203.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Updated Feb 2003) Updated Feb 2003) 1 Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 Selected Table and Figure Updates Based on the February 2003 Short-Term Energy Outlook Figure WF1. U.S. Winter Natural Gas Demand (Year-to-Year Percent Change) -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Residential Commercial Indust. (incl. CHP) Total Projections Table WF1. Illustrative Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Actual Actual Actual Base Forecast Natural Gas (Midwest) Consumption (mcf) 81.7 99.1 81.3 90.6 Avg. Price ($/mcf) 6.69 9.55 7.33 8.41 Expenditures ($) 546 946 596 762 Heating Oil (Northeast) Consumption (gals) 644 731 584 733 Avg. Price ($/gal) 1.16 1.37 1.10 1.33 Expenditures ($)

304

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

305

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

306

The Market Price of Risk: Implications for Electricity Price Forecasting, Asset Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forward Price Forecasting for Power Market Valuation (TR-111860, 1998) presented the basic theory on the market price of risk. However, continued development of the power market has led to additional complexities when applying the concept to electric power. This current report updates that earlier report based on subsequent development of the theory by EPRI and others and reflects two additional years of market data.

2000-12-07T23:59:59.000Z

307

Taiwanese 3G mobile phone demand forecasting by SVR with hybrid evolutionary algorithms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Taiwan is one of the countries with higher mobile phone penetration rate in the world, along with the increasing maturity of 3G relevant products, the establishments of base stations, and updating regulations of 3G mobile phones, 3G mobile phones are ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Demand forecasting, General regression neural networks (GRNN), Genetic algorithm-simulated annealing (GA-SA), Support vector regression (SVR), Third generation (3G) mobile phone

Wei-Chiang Hong; Yucheng Dong; Li-Yueh Chen; Chien-Yuan Lai

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

311

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

313

Statement from Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman Regarding EIA's Updated  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Regarding EIA's Regarding EIA's Updated Annual Energy Outlook Statement from Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman Regarding EIA's Updated Annual Energy Outlook December 12, 2007 - 4:44pm Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - Earlier today the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration released their Annual Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman made the following statement regarding the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook which forecasts to 2030: "EIA's updated forecast projecting higher oil prices and increased demand reinforces the Department of Energy's commitment to the development of safe, clean, affordable, and diverse sources of energy. The President's initiatives focusing on increased domestic energy production, more energy efficiency, and clean energy technologies will enhance our energy security

314

New Construction - Commercial Reference Buildings | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

New Construction - Commercial Reference Buildings New Construction - Commercial Reference Buildings New Construction - Commercial Reference Buildings The files on this page contain commercial reference building models for new construction, organized by building type and location. These U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reference buildings are complete descriptions for whole building energy analysis. You can also return to a summary of building types and climate zones and information about other building vintages. These files are updated regularly and comply with ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004. For more information about standards, visit the ASHRAE Web site. There are two versions of these files on this page. Version 1.3_5.0 was updated September 27, 2010 and Version 1.4_7.2 was updated November 13, 2012.

315

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

316

APS Technical Update - No. 30  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

1995 (updated May 18, 2011) APS TECHNICAL UPDATE - 30 Policy for Radiological Surveys on Tools, Materials & Equipment to be Released from Controlled Areas to Uncontrolled Areas at...

317

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO forecast plume during the 200211 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Rpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

325

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

326

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple spacetime scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

335

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

337

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

338

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

339

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

340

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

342

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

343

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

344

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

345

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moodys Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

346

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

347

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

348

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

349

WINDOW 5 Glass Library Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

WINDOW 6 or 7 Glass Library Update WINDOW 6 or 7 Glass Library Update Last update:12/09/13 07:26 PM Automatic IGDB Update Feature in WINDOW 6 and 7 The latest versions of WINDOW 6 and 7 have an automatic IGDB database update function in the Glass Library. When you first open the program, it checks to see if there is an IGDB version later than what you already have installed, and will notify you if there is an update. Then you can download and install the IGDB database, and click on the Update IGDB button in the Glass Library in order to start the automatic update. For older versions of WINDOW 6 and 7 without the automatic IGDB update function bullet How to Check the Current WINDOW5 IGDB Version bullet Updating the Glass Library bullet Problem Updating the Glass Library bullet Discontinued Records or Reused NFRC IDs

350

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

351

V-032:Ubuntu update for tomcat6 | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

32:Ubuntu update for tomcat6 32:Ubuntu update for tomcat6 V-032:Ubuntu update for tomcat6 November 23, 2012 - 3:30am Addthis PROBLEM: Ubuntu update for tomcat6 PLATFORM: Ubuntu Linux 10.04 Ubuntu Linux 11.10 Ubuntu Linux 12.04 ABSTRACT: Several security issues were fixed in Apache Tomcat. REFERENCE LINKS: Ubuntu Security Notice USN-1637-1 Apache Tomcat Security Updates Secunia Advisory SA51371 CVE-2012-2733 CVE-2012-5885 CVE-2012-5886 CVE-2012-5887 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Medium DISCUSSION: It was discovered that the Apache Tomcat HTTP NIO connector incorrectly handled header data. A remote attacker could cause a denial of service by sending requests with a large amount of header data. (CVE-2012-2733) It was discovered that Apache Tomcat incorrectly handled DIGEST authentication. A remote attacker could possibly use these flaws to perform

352

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

353

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

An Updated Anual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Tax Credits ARRA contains several changes to the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (P HEV) t ax credit

355

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

356

PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Jump to: navigation, search Name PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Topics Co-benefits assessment, - Environmental and Biodiversity, - Health, Background analysis Resource Type Publications Website http://www.pnl.gov/atmospheric Country Mexico UN Region Latin America and the Caribbean References PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico[1] PNNL Publications on WRF-Chem modeling in Mexico include: Fast JD, M Shrivastava, RA Zaveri, and JC. Barnard. 2010. "Modeling particulates and direct radiative forcing from urban to synoptic scales downwind of Mexico City." Annual European Geosciences Union Assembly,

357

DND: a model for forecasting electrical energy usage by water-resource subregion  

SciTech Connect

A forecast methodology was derived from principles of econometrics using exogenous variables, i.e., cost of electricity, consumer income, and price elasticity as indicators of growth for each consuming sector: residential, commercial, and industrial. The model was calibrated using forecast data submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) by the nine Regional Electric Reliability Councils. Estimates on electrical energy usage by specific water-resource subregion were obtained by normalizing forecasted total electrical energy usage by state into per capita usage. The usage factor and data on forecasted population were applied for each water resource subregion. The results derived using the model are self-consistent and in good agreement with DOE Energy Information Administration projections. The differences that exist are largely the result of assumptions regarding specific aggregations and assignment of regional-system reliability and load factors. 8 references, 2 figures, 13 tables.

Sonnichsen, J.C. Jr.

1980-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Graph-based reference table construction to facilitate entity matching  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Entity matching plays a crucial role in information integration among heterogeneous data sources, and numerous solutions have been developed. Entity resolution based on reference table has the benefits of high efficiency and being easy to update. In ... Keywords: Entity matching, Graph clustering, Reference table

Fangda Wang, Hongzhi Wang, Jianzhong Li, Hong Gao

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Paper: Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Abstract Resource classification is a key element in the characterization, assessment and development of energy resources, including geothermal energy. Stakeholders at all levels of government, within the geothermal industry, and among the general public need to be able to use and understand consistent terminology when addressing geothermal resource issues such as location, quality, feasibility of development, and potential impacts. This terminology must encompass both the fundamentally geological nature of geothermal resources and the practical technological and economic

360

From: Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Berkeley Lab (LBNL) Subject: Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices Date: January 4, 2010 1. Introduction, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better

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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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361

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon Power Purchase Agreement Update April 21, 2011 Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nrel.gov 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Overview * Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Template * PPA Request For Information (RFI) 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Template * DLA Energy has an updated PPA template - Includes Best Value evaluation (rather than Low Price/Technically Acceptable) - Additional updates will be made based on the PPA RFI - Updated template will be posted on FEMP PPA Sample Document web site http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/ppa_sampledocs.html 4 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov

362

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon Power Purchase Agreement Update April 21, 2011 Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nrel.gov 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Overview * Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Template * PPA Request For Information (RFI) 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Template * DLA Energy has an updated PPA template - Includes Best Value evaluation (rather than Low Price/Technically Acceptable) - Additional updates will be made based on the PPA RFI - Updated template will be posted on FEMP PPA Sample Document web site http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/ppa_sampledocs.html 4 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Request for Information * Background - PPA issues identified based on meetings/telecons

363

Migratory Birds Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Migratory Birds Update Jane Powers Office of Environmental Policy and Assistance, HS-22 SAN Call July 19, 2012 Migratory Bird MOU * Final draft was distributed to U.S. Fish and...

364

Migratory Birds Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Migratory Birds Update Jane Powers Office of Environmental Policy and Assistance, HS-22 SAN Call October 18, 2012 Migratory Bird MOU * Draft distributed to U.S. Fish and Wildlife...

365

Codex Alimentarius Commission update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

AOCS Technical Director Richard Cantrill attended recent meetings of two Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) committees that deal with issues of interest to the fats and oils industry. Topics discussed included work to update the standard on named vegeta

366

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the â??black boxâ? of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the â??price puzzleâ? and the â??liquidity puzzleâ? are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watsonâ??s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

NEWTON's Chemistry References  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Chemistry References Do you have a great chemistry reference link? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Reference Links: Steve Marsden's Chemistry Resources Steve Marsden's...

368

NEWTON's Physics References  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Physics References Do you have a great physics reference link? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Reference Links: Physics Links Physics Links from AAPT See the American...

369

Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Reference wind farm selection for regional wind power prediction models Nils Siebert George.siebert@ensmp.fr, georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized today as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind generation in power systems. This paper deals

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

370

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

372

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting, Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

375

Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Archive of the Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 Izmir, Turkey Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 ...

376

Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Archive of AOCS Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 Kiev, Ukraine Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 ...

377

Materials Reference Books  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Materials Science Reference Books. ... The Smithells Metals Reference Book Brandis and Brook; Butterworth-Heinemann; Published 1992; ISBN ...

2010-10-05T23:59:59.000Z

378

UPDATE TO THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN REPOSITORY LICENSE APPLICATION  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The purpose of this letter is to transmit the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) first update to the Yucca Mountain Repository LA, which meets the requirements of 10 CFR 63.22(c) to update the application on notification of the appointment of an Atomic Safety and Licensing Board. DOE initially transmitted its LA for construction authorization to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on June 3, 2008. In accordance with 10 CFR 63.22(e), DOE certifies that this revision reflects the updated LA as of October 16, 2008. Changes made to this revision were determined not to be significant and did not impact the conclusions of the LA. The update was initiated soon after the docketing of the LA by the NRC in anticipation of notification of the appointment of an Atomic Safety and Licensing Board. Due to the lengthy process required to maintain configuration control between the paper version and the electronic version, and the time required to print the paper version, DOE is submitting the update prepared as of that time. Enclosed are optical storage media which contain: 1) the first update of the LA, with revised sections clearly identified as Revision 1, and text and figure changes noted with marginal change bars; and 2) updates to the primary reference documents to the LA, affecting 36 of the original 196 references. In addition, enclosed in paper format are: 1) a detailed listing of the contents of the optical storage media submitted with this letter; 2) a summary of the specific LA changes that have been made, including the sections revised and a description of each change; and 3) copies of the individual LA pages affected by changes since the June 3, 2008, submittal. The updates to the primary reference

Michael F. Weber

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

380

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Insulator Reference Book: Chapter 1: Insulator Fundamentals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This technical update report presents a draft first chapter of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Insulator Reference Book, which is being developed to give utility transmission engineers a comprehensive information resource on all aspects of high-voltage insulators.BackgroundHigh-voltage insulators are an essential part of the power delivery system. They ensure the safe transmission of electricity from generating stations to substations, where the ...

2013-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

382

U-105:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

5:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory 5:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory U-105:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory February 16, 2012 - 11:45am Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory PLATFORM: 1.4.2_35 and prior, 5.0 Update 33 and prior; 6 Update 30 and prior; 7 Update 2 and prior ABSTRACT: Multiple vulnerabilities were reported in Oracle Java SE. A remote user can execute arbitrary code on the target system. A remote user can cause denial of service conditions. reference LINKS: Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Critical Patch Security Alerts SecurityTracker Alert ID: 1026688 Secunia Advisory: SA48009 Red Hat advisory IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High Discussion: A remote user can send specially crafted data to execute arbitrary code on the target system or cause complete denial of service conditions. The Java

383

U-105:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

05:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory 05:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory U-105:Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory February 16, 2012 - 11:45am Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Update Advisory PLATFORM: 1.4.2_35 and prior, 5.0 Update 33 and prior; 6 Update 30 and prior; 7 Update 2 and prior ABSTRACT: Multiple vulnerabilities were reported in Oracle Java SE. A remote user can execute arbitrary code on the target system. A remote user can cause denial of service conditions. reference LINKS: Oracle Java SE Critical Patch Critical Patch Security Alerts SecurityTracker Alert ID: 1026688 Secunia Advisory: SA48009 Red Hat advisory IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High Discussion: A remote user can send specially crafted data to execute arbitrary code on the target system or cause complete denial of service conditions. The Java

384

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Updated Buildings Sector Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency August 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Buildings Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Buildings Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency 1

385

C:\MYDOCS\COALRES\1997update\FRONT-1.wpd  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) Distribution Category UC-950 U.S. Coal Reserves: 1997 Update February 1999 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ U.S. Coal Reserves:1997 Update ii Internet Access The databases in this report can be accessed and downloaded via the EIA home page:  http://www.eia.doe.gov.

386

U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5) 5) Distribution Category UC-950 U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update August 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update ii Internet Access The information and databases in this report can be accessed and downloaded via the EIA home page:

387

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

389

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of MissouriColumbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEPs coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in nearreal time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

402

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Print Friday, 01 March 2013 15:43 Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement

403

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

404

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

407

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

408

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

409

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

411

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

412

OCRWM Program Update -- Lanthrum  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Update Update Presented to: Transportation External Coordination Working Group Presented by: Gary Lanthrum Director, Office of Logistics Management February 6, 2008 San Antonio, TX 2 Introduction * Program key milestones * Status of License Application * FY 2008 Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Program budget * Status of transportation projects 3 Program Key Milestones Design for License Application Complete November 2007 License Application Submittal Start Nevada Rail Construction YM Construction Authorization Operating License Submittal Rail Line Operational Begin Receipt Completed Supplemental EIS LSN Certification October 2007 4 Licensing Support Network (LSN) * LSN is a web-based information system established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that provides public

413

SO3 Mitigation Guide Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is an updated guide for control of gas phase sulfuric acid emissions. The guide updates overviews of available control processes and covers new processes. In addition, the guide summarizes process economics and includes a cost worksheet calculation methodology.

2004-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

414

ACT Update | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ACT Update ACT Update ACT September 2011.pdf More Documents & Publications C-340 Complex D&D Final Lessons Learned (Post CD-4), Environmental Management Cleanup, Sep 2011 Plain...

415

Darshan Updated data repository documentation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updated data repository documentation June 18th, 2013 The documentation for the public ALCF IO Data Repository has been updated. Please note that there is a new technical report...

416

Sandy Updates | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy.gov Sandy Updates Sandy Updates June 6, 2013 President Barack Obama listens to then-Acting Energy Secretary Daniel B. Poneman during a meeting with electric utility CEOs...

417

NETL: Gasification Systems Reference Shelf  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shelf Shelf Gasification Systems Reference Shelf TABLE OF CONTENTS Brochures Conferences and Workshops Gasification Systems Projects National Map Gasification Systems Projects and Performers Gasification Systems Project Portfolio Gasifipedia Multi-phase Flow with Interphase eXchange (MFIX) Patents Program Presentations Project Information Projects Summary Table by State Solicitations Systems and Industry Analyses Studies Technical Presentations & Papers Technology Readiness Assessment (Comprehensive Report | Overview Report) Video, Images & Photos Gasification Plant Databases CD Icon Request Gasification Technologies Information on a CD. Gasification RSS Feed Subscribe to the Gasification RSS Feed to follow website updates. LinkedIn DOE Gasification Program Group Subscribe to the LinkedIn DOE Gasification Program group for more information and discussion.

418

The Nuclear Science References Database  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The Nuclear Science References (NSR) database together with its associated Web interface, is the world's only comprehensive source of easily accessible low- and intermediate-energy nuclear physics bibliographic information for more than 210,000 articles since the beginning of nuclear science. The weekly-updated NSR database provides essential support for nuclear data evaluation, compilation and research activities. The principles of the database and Web application development and maintenance are described. Examples of nuclear structure, reaction and decay applications are specifically included. The complete NSR database is freely available at the websites of the National Nuclear Data Center http://www.nndc.bnl.gov/nsr and the International Atomic Energy Agency http://www-nds.iaea.org/nsr.

Pritychenko, B; Singh, B; Totans, J

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

424

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

426

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramn de Ela; Ren Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Brcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

433

GUA Update, December 2008 Issue  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GUA Update is published quarterly. The following articles are featured in this issue of Gasification Users Association (GUA) Update: President Obama's Energy and Climate Agenda Outgoing Administration Energy Program Updates China's Coal Gasification Industry Continues to Expand U.S. IGCC Project Updates International IGCC and Gasification Projects IGCC and Gasification Technology News Items U.S. Coal to SNG Project Announcements 2008 Coal to Liquids (CTL) New content is in bold. Previous content fr...

2009-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

434

T-628: Debian APR Library Security Update | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

T-628: Debian APR Library Security Update T-628: Debian APR Library Security Update T-628: Debian APR Library Security Update May 23, 2011 - 3:35pm Addthis PROBLEM: Debian APR Library Security Update. PLATFORM: APR packages: 2009.0, 2010.1, Corporate 4.0, Enterprise Server 5.0 ABSTRACT: A flaw was found in the APR library, which could be exploited through Apache HTTPD's mod_autoindex. reference LINKS: Debian Security Advisory DSA-2237-2 Security Database Adviory Security Focus Advisory CVE-2011-1928 CVE-2011-0419 Secunia Advisory SA44574 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Medium Discussion: A directory indexed by mod_autoindex contained files with sufficiently long names, a remote attacker could send a carefully crafted request which would cause excessive CPU usage. This could be used in a denial of service attack.

435

U-023: Debian update for phpldapadmin | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

23: Debian update for phpldapadmin 23: Debian update for phpldapadmin U-023: Debian update for phpldapadmin October 31, 2011 - 10:15am Addthis PROBLEM: Debian update for phpldapadmin. PLATFORM: Versions: phpldapadmin/1.1.0.5-6+lenny1, phpldapadmin/1.2.0.5-2 ABSTRACT: All versions of phpldapadmin - all released versions as of today are vulnerable to a remote code execution bug. reference LINKS: Secunia Advisory SA46672 DSA-2333-1 phpldapadmin Debian Bug Report Source Package phpldapadmin CVE-2011-4074 CVE-2011-4075 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High Discussion: Two vulnerabilities have been discovered in phpLDAPadmin, a web based interface for administering LDAP servers. Input appended to the URL in cmd.php (when "cmd" is set to "_debug") is not properly sanitised before being returned to the user. This can be exploited

436

T-610: Red Hat kdenetwork security update | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

0: Red Hat kdenetwork security update 0: Red Hat kdenetwork security update T-610: Red Hat kdenetwork security update April 26, 2011 - 7:11am Addthis PROBLEM: A directory traversal flaw was found in the way KGet, a download manager, handled the "file" element in Metalink files. An attacker could use this flaw to create a specially-crafted Metalink file that, when opened, would cause KGet to overwrite arbitrary files accessible to the user running KGet. PLATFORM: Red Hat Enterprise Linux Desktop (v. 6) Red Hat Enterprise Linux Server (v. 6) Red Hat Enterprise Linux Workstation (v. 6) ABSTRACT: A directory traversal flaw was found in the way KGet, a download manager, handled the "file" element in Metalink files. reference LINKS: RHSA-2011:0465-1 CVE-2011-1586 RH Classification RH Updates Support

437

T-639: Debian update for libxml2 | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

39: Debian update for libxml2 39: Debian update for libxml2 T-639: Debian update for libxml2 June 7, 2011 - 3:35pm Addthis PROBLEM: libxml2 is vulnerable to buffer overflows, which allowed a crafted XML input file to potentially execute arbitrary code. PLATFORM: Package: libxml2 version 2.7.8. Other versions may also be affected ABSTRACT: Libxml2 XPath Nodeset Processing Vulnerability reference LINKS: Secunia Advisory: SA44817 Secunia Advisory: SA44711 DSA 2255-1 Vulnerability Report: Debian GNU/Linux 6.0 Download Package libxml2 Other Packages Related to libxml2 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: High Discussion: Debian has issued an update for libxml2. This fixes a vulnerability, which can be exploited by malicious people to cause a DoS (Denial of Service) or potentially compromise an application using the library.

438

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

439

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

440

State Energy Price System: 1982 update  

SciTech Connect

The State Energy Price System (STEPS) contains estimates of energy prices for ten major fuels (electricity, natural gas, metallurgical coal, steam coal, distillate, motor gasoline, diesel, kerosene/jet fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas), by major end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility), and by state through 1982. Both physical unit prices and prices per million Btu are included in STEPS. Major changes in STEPS data base for 1981 and 1982 are described. The most significant changes in procedures for the updates occur in the residential sector distillate series and the residential sector kerosene series. All physical unit and Btu prices are shown with three significant digits instead of with four significant digits as shown in the original documentation. Details of these and other changes are contained in this report, along with the updated data files. 31 references, 65 tables.

Imhoff, K.L.; Fang, J.M.

1984-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

442

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

On the Relationship between Incremental Analysis Updating and Incremental Digital Filtering  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Incremental analysis updating (IAU) refers to a method of smoothly inserting instantaneous analysis increments into a numerical model by spreading the increments over a time period. In this work, this method is shown to be identical to applying a ...

Saroja Polavarapu; Shuzhan Ren; Adam M. Clayton; David Sankey; Yves Rochon

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

445

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

446

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

448

Quality Reference Samples  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Peer-reviewed fats and oils related performance-based control samples for lab quality assurance and quality control. Quality Reference Samples Certified Reference Materials (CRM) aocs certified Certified Reference Materials chemists CRM fat fats lab labo

449

NEWTON's Computer Science References  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Computer Science References Do you have a great computer reference link? Please click our Ideas page. Featured Reference Links: w3schools.com w3schools.com The site, w3schools.com,...

450

COSY INFINITY Reference Manual  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7.2, user's refer- ence manual. Technical Report CERN/LEP-COSY INFINITY Reference Manual M. Berz J I July 1990COSY INFlNlTY REFERENCE MANUAL * Martin Berz Accelerator and

Berz, M.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Shift Reference Manual  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

BERKELEY Shift Reference Manual Akash Deshpande Aleks Gll1055-1425 S HIFT Reference Manual PRCS project SHIC versionThis is a reference manual for S HIFT . It presents its

Deshpande, Akash; Gollu, Aleks; Semenzato, Luigi

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

455

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquas Pea Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

457

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rsch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates reference" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Gnter Blschl; Christian Reszler; Jrgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Electricity Monthly Update - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis & Projections. Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & ...

466

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

468

Updated: 4 December 2009 Cranfield University Energy Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Updated: 4 December 2009 Cranfield University Energy Policy Cranfield University Introduction The Cranfield University Energy Policy has been developed with reference to the Cranfield University Carbon. Purpose and Scope This Energy Policy sets out how the University will manage energy use in a sustainable

469

A new approach to the template update problem  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Visual tracking based on pattern matching is a very used computer vision technique in a wide range of applications [4]. Updating the template of reference is a crucial aspect for a correct working of this kind of algorithms. This paper proposes a new ...

Cayetano Guerra; Mario Hernndez; Antonio Domnguez; Daniel Hernndez

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Program Updates | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

News » Program Updates News » Program Updates Program Updates January 7, 2014 Program Update: 4th Quarter 2013 Inside this Update: Agencies Assist LM to Develop Reports on Defense-Related Uranium Mines; DOE Responds to Public Input on the Draft ULP PEIS; Groundwater Remedy Is Evaluated at the Mound, Ohio, Site; Visitors Learn About the History of LM's Unique Facility in Puerto Rico; German Remediation Offi cials Benchmarking Visit; International Atomic Energy Agency Accepts Consultation from LM; Environmental Justice Activities; and more. October 21, 2013 Program Update: 3rd Quarter 2013 Inside this Update: Legacy Management Work Progresses on Defense-Related Uranium Mines Report to Congress; Weaving Community and Science; LM Completes Construction of Well Pad at CNTA; DOE Salute - Grand Junction,

471

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2012  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 Accelerator Update Archive 2 Accelerator Update Archive April 27, 2012 - April 30, 2012 NuMI reported receiving 7.67E18 protons on target for the period from 4/23/12 to 4/30/12. The Booster developed an aperture restriction that required lower beam intensity Main Injector personnel completed their last study The shutdown begins Linac, MTA, and Booster will continue using beam for one or two more weeks Linac will supply the Neutron Therapy Facility beam for most of the shutdown April 25, 2012 - April 27, 2012 Booster beam stop problem repaired Beam to all experiments will shut off at midnight on Monday morning, 4/30/12. Main Injector will continue to take beam until 6 AM on Monday morning. Linac, the Neutron Therapy Facility, MTA, and Booster will continue using beam for one or two more weeks. The Fermi Accelerator Complex will be in shutdown for approximately one year

472

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

473

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

474

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

475

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

476

SPEAR3 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Beam Line Update Beam Line Update Index of Topics: Third Generation Light Souce First SPEAR3 Light Seen in Early March Beam Line Availability Access to SSRL Beam Lines Third Generation Light Source SSRL entered a new era of synchrotron radiation experimentation with the completion of the SPEAR3 upgrade project in the Fall of 2003 (find more SPEAR3 news at http://www-ssrl.slac.stanford.edu/spear3/index.html). The SPEAR3 storage ring now produces beams having one to two orders of magnitude higher brightness and flux density than the old SPEAR2 ring, will accommodate new high performance insertion devices and beam lines, and will be capable of injections without ramping by virtue of its improved at-energy injection system. Brightness for new undulators will exceed 1018 at 5 keV.

477

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

478

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

479

PPA Tools and Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

PPA Tools & Update Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nel.gov October 21, 2010 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov * PPA (15 minutes) - Resources - Discussion * URESC (15 minutes) - URESC description - Issues description - Discussion Presentation/Discussion Overview 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov * PPA Web Site: http://www.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/power_purchase_agreements.html - PPA Quick Guide http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/ppa_guide.pdf - PPA Presentation (updated on periodic basis) - Sample Documents * Alternative Financing Options webinar recording http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/femp/training/course_detail_ondemand.cfm/CourseId=44 * FEMP Focus article (Fall 2007, p. 16-17) http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/news/fempfocus.html

480

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

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481

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Print Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

482

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2010  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

10 Accelerator Update Archive 10 Accelerator Update Archive December 20, 2010 - December 22, 2010 - Three stores provided !32 hours of luminosity - Problems with two Linac quadrupole power supplies - Cryo system technicians work on TEV sector D1 wet engine - TEV quench during checkout - JASMIN's run at MTest ends December 17, 2010 - December 20, 2010 The Integrated Luminosity for the period from 12/13/10 to 12/20/10 was 66.31 inverse picobarns. NuMI reported receiving 7.62E18 protons on target during this same period. - Five Stores provided ~62 hours of luminosity - Operations had trouble with a Linac RF station (LRF3) - Operators tuned the Linac backup source (I- Source) December 15, 2010 - December 17, 2010 - Three stores provided ~36.1 hours of luminosity - MI-52 Septa repaired - NuMI recovered its target LCW system

483

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

484

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

485

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Print Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

486

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

487

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

488

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

489

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

490

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

491

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2009  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

9 Accelerator Update Archive 9 Accelerator Update Archive December 18, 2009 - December 21, 2009 The integrated luminosity for the period from 12/14/09 to 12/21/09 was 51.27 inverse picobarns. NuMI reported receiving 6.38E18 protons on target during this same period. - Four stores provided ~62.25 hours of luminosity - Store 7444 had an AIL of 306E30 - BRF19 cavity suffered a vacuum failure and was removed - The Booster West Anode Power Supply suffered some problems December 16, 2009 - December 18, 2009 - Three stores provided ~45 hours of luminosity - PBar kicker problem - MI RF problems December 14, 2009 - December 16, 2009 - Four stores provided ~42 hours of luminosity - Recycler kicker repaired - Booster East Anode Power Supply trips due to BRF1, 2, & 8 December 11, 2009 - December 14, 2009

492

Electric Utility Industry Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Electric Utility Industry Update Electric Utility Industry Update Steve Kiesner Director, National Customer Markets Edison Electric Institute FUPWG Spring 2012 April 12, 2012 Edison Electric Institute  Investor-Owned Electric Companies  Membership includes  200 US companies,  More than 65 international affiliates and  170 associates  US members  Serve more than 95% of the ultimate customers in the investor-owned segment of the industry and  Nearly 70% of all electric utility ultimate customers, and  Our mission focuses on advocating public policy; expanding market opportunities; and providing strategic business information Agenda Significant Industry Trends Utility Infrastructure Investments Generation and Fuel Landscape

493

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

494

Community Relations Plan Update  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

8-TAR 8-TAR MAC-MRAP 1.9.1 Monticello Mill Tailings Superfund Site and Monticello Vicinity Properties Superfund Site Monticello, Utah Community Relations Plan Update FY 2001 Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Albuquerque Operations Office Grand Junction Office Prepared by MACTEC Environmental Restoration Services, LLC Grand Junction, Colorado Work performed under DOE Contract No. DE-AC13-96GJ87335 for the U.S. Department of Energy For more information or to request additional copies of this document, please call (800) 269-7145 (Utah only) or Monticello Repository Office Complex (435) 587-4000 DOE Grand Junction Office Community Relations Plan Update FY 2001 Page v Table of Contents Terms and Abbreviations........................................................................................................... vii

495

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

496

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

497

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

498

NUCLEAR SCIENCE REFERENCES CODING MANUAL  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This manual is intended as a guide for Nuclear Science References (NSR) compilers. The basic conventions followed at the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC), which are compatible with the maintenance and updating of and retrieval from the Nuclear Science References (NSR) file, are outlined. The NSR database originated at the Nuclear Data Project (NDP) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as part of a project for systematic evaluation of nuclear structure data.1 Each entry in this computer file corresponds to a bibliographic reference that is uniquely identified by a Keynumber and is describable by a Topic and Keywords. It has been used since 1969 to produce bibliographic citations for evaluations published in Nuclear Data Sheets. Periodic additions to the file were published as the ''Recent References'' issues of Nuclear Data Sheets prior to 2005. In October 1980, the maintenance and updating of the NSR file became the responsibility of the NNDC at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The basic structure and contents of the NSR file remained unchanged during the transfer. In Chapter 2, the elements of the NSR file such as the valid record identifiers, record contents, and text fields are enumerated. Relevant comments regarding a new entry into the NSR file and assignment of a keynumber are also given in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, the format for keyword abstracts is given followed by specific examples; for each TOPIC, the criteria for inclusion of an article as an entry into the NSR file as well as coding procedures are described. Authors preparing Keyword abstracts either to be published in a Journal (e.g., Nucl. Phys. A) or to be sent directly to NNDC (e.g., Phys. Rev. C) should follow the illustrations in Chapter 3. The scope of 1See W.B.Ewbank, ORNL-5397 (1978). the literature covered at the NNDC, the categorization into Primary and Secondary sources, etc., is discussed in Chapter 4. Useful information regarding permitted character sets, recommended abbreviations, etc., is given in the Appendices. The NSR database has been in existence for decades, and responsibility for its upkeep has passed through many hands. Those familiar with the contents of NSR will note that not all of the formats and conventions discussed in this manual have always been adhered to. In recent years, however, these conventions have been followed fairly consistently, and it is expected that the preparation of new entries will follow these guidelines. The most up-to-date information about NSR contents and policies can be found at the NSR web site: http://www.nndc.bnl.gov/nsr. This manual is an update to BNL-NCS-51800 (Rev. 08/96) by S. Ramavataram and C.L. Dunford. Discussions with Mark Kellett of the IAEA are gratefully acknowledged, as are comments and suggestions from the NNDC staff and members of the U.S. Nuclear Data Program. This manuscript has been authored by Brookhaven Science Associates, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC02-98CH1-886 with the U.S.Department of Energy.

WINCHELL,D.F.

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

U-194: Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator Lets Local Users Gain Elevated  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

4: Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator Lets Local Users Gain 4: Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator Lets Local Users Gain Elevated Privledges U-194: Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator Lets Local Users Gain Elevated Privledges June 19, 2012 - 7:00am Addthis PROBLEM: Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator Lets Local Users Gain Elevated Privileges . PLATFORM: Version(s): 2.3 and prior versions Abstract: Users Gain Elevated Privileges reference LINKS: Vendor Advisory SecurityTracker Alert ID: 1027182 CVE-2012-0304 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Medium Discussion: A vulnerability was reported in Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator. A local user can obtain elevated privileges on the target system.The default installation of Symantec LiveUpdate Administrator installs files with full control privileges granted to the 'Everyone' group.A local user can exploit

500

T-672: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - July 2011 | Department of  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

672: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - July 2011 672: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - July 2011 T-672: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - July 2011 July 20, 2011 - 1:34pm Addthis PROBLEM: Oracle Critical Patch Update Advisory - July 2011 PLATFORM: Affected Products and Components ABSTRACT: Due to the threat posed by a successful attack, Oracle strongly recommends that customers apply CPU fixes as soon as possible. This Critical Patch Update contains 78 new security fixes across all product families. Critical Patch Updates and Security Alerts Security Alerts reference LINKS: Oracle Fusion Middleware Risk Matrix Oracle Database Server Risk Matrix Oracle Enterprise Manager Grid Control Risk Matrix Oracle E-Business Suite Risk Matrix Oracle PeopleSoft Products Risk Matrix Oracle Sun Products Suite Risk Matrix