Sample records for forecast updates navigant

  1. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  2. CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director-year increase in the debt ceiling -- both of which proceeded without the usual drama. Second, the private sector, corporate coffers are flush with cash, and low US energy prices have dramatically improved the global

  3. Continuous Model Updating and Forecasting for a Naturally Fractured Reservoir

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Almohammadi, Hisham

    2013-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    . Such capabilities allow for a paradigm change in which reservoir management can be looked at as a strategy that enables a semi-continuous process of model updates and decision optimizations instead of being periodic or reactive. This is referred to as closed...

  4. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  5. Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Chang

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale....

  6. PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated Net Revenues, Updated August 30, 2002

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for RenewableSpeedingBiomass and BiofuelsOversightandCenterBusiness Line Updated

  7. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  8. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  9. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  10. Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress of Canada's Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Canadian Fuel Cell...

  11. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  12. Navigable Waterways (Indiana)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The construction of new structures in navigable waterways requires a permit from the Department of Natural Resources. Existing structures in waterways newly classified as “navigable” are not...

  13. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  14. Navigable Waters, Harbors and Navigation (Wisconsin)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This statute details regulations relevant to navigable waterways and harbors. Depending on the project design of a proposed dam or hydropower structure, some of these regulations may apply.

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  16. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  17. Texas Electricity Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lloyd, B.

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Texas Electricity Update CATEE 2012 Galveston, Texas Brian Lloyd Executive Director Public Utility Commission of Texas October 10, 2012 1 2 Drought Summary May Reserve Margin Report 3 Demand Growth by Region 4 105? Normal... 917 Firm Load Forecast, MW 65,649 68,403 71,692 73,957 75,360 76,483 CATEE 2012 Questions? Brian H. Lloyd Executive Director Public Utility Commission of Texas 512-936-7040 14 ...

  18. Learning Structured Reactive Navigation Plans from Executing MDP Navigation Policies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cremers, Daniel

    Learning Structured Reactive Navigation Plans from Executing MDP Navigation Policies Michael Beetz, beetz,belker@cs.uni-bonn.de Abstract. Autonomous robots, such as robot office couriers, need navigation

  19. Inland Navigation Districts and Florida Inland Navigation District Law (Florida)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The first part of this legislation establishes Inland Navigation Districts, which are authorized to plan for and manage the development of inland waterways, and to maintain public navigation...

  20. STRESS AND FAULTING IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL FIELD: UPDATE AND...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    THE EAST FLANK AND COSO WASH Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Proceedings: STRESS AND FAULTING IN THE COSO GEOTHERMAL FIELD: UPDATE...

  1. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  2. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  3. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  4. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  5. NAVIGATING THE BRAIN'S MYSTERIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    C C C A A A A G A G G D D D D D F D F F F H H H E E E E FHE E B B B C E B NAVIGATING THE BRAIN of the brain-- one that shows its complex trafficking across trillions of neuronal connections. Addressing: outlining "the next great American project," the BRAIN (Brain Research through Advancing Innovative

  6. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  7. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  8. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  9. 33 CFR 2.36: Navigable Waters of the United States, navigable...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    navigable waters, and territorial watersLegal Abstract This regulation provides the definition for "navigable waters of the United States, navigable waters, and territorial...

  10. Washington Update

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Text eere.energy.gov Federal Energy Management Program FederalUtility Partnership Working Group David McAndrew April 14, 2010 Providence RI Washington Update Federal Energy...

  11. Critical Update - Renwable Guidance Update

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Renewable Update FUPWG May 1, 2007 Chandra Shah, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 303-384-7557, chandrashah@nrel.gov Presentation Overview * Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT...

  12. Tracking Progress Last updated 5/7/2014 Statewide Energy Demand 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tracking Progress Last updated 5/7/2014 Statewide Energy Demand 1 Statewide Energy Demand Energy Commission's energy demand forecast includes multiple scenarios, the Energy Commission worked together1 to agree upon a single managed demand forecast that incorporates all energy efficiency

  13. Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petty, S.; Porro, G.

    2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.

  14. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  15. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  16. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  17. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  18. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  19. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  20. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  1. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  2. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  3. Location Estimation with a Differential Update Ali Rahimi and Trevor Darrell

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Darrell, Trevor

    algorithm by cal- culating globally consistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear to recover the trajectory of a robot given noisy measurements of its movement between points in its

  4. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  5. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  6. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  7. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  8. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  10. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  11. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  12. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  13. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  14. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  15. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  16. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  17. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  18. NERSC Online Training May 3: Navigating NERSC File Systems

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Online Training May 3: Navigating NERSC File Systems NERSC Online Training May 3: Navigating NERSC File Systems April 26, 2011 by Richard Gerber A NERSC training event, "Navigating...

  19. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Additional Rooftop PV 6 Additional Combined Heat and Power 7 Adjusted Statewide Retail Sales for RPS 7.5 12.6 5 AdditionalRooftop PV - 0.4 0.7 6 AdditionalCombined Heatand Power 20.8 11.6 9.9 7 Adjusted Adjustments CED 2011 ­ Form 1.1c - CDWR, MWD, WAPA - pumping loads ­ Small LSEs (

  1. Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ,877 Replacement #12;CO2 Emission Modeling § The AURORAxmp® electric market model calculates CO2 emission) Assumptions § CO2 emission modeling § Base Case Results § Scenario/Sensitivities § Emission Projections Database ­ eGRID 2012 Year 2009 ­ Emissions, including CO2, are estimated using information from various

  2. CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts Midyear Update, April 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    and government support) to fundamental forces (business and consumption spending) has reached a more advanced, (4) sustained elevated oil prices, and (5) financial shocks from the European sovereign debt crisis, reflecting continued but moderate expansion. Consumption Spending. Real personal consumption expenditure fell

  3. Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Lock

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Yuhang

    fuel costs and rising steel prices impact construction and O&M. ·Dredging costs increase One Team) - Dredge the lock forebay at the Mississippi River, Fall 2008 · Calcasieu Lock: - Remove & replace damaged lock dolphin - Sep-Oct 2008 (minimal delays to navigation) · Dredge GIWW Port Allen to Morgan City

  4. A comparative analysis of area navigation systems for general aviation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dodge, Steven Malcolm

    1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Within the next decade area navigation is to become the primary method of air navigation within the United States. There are numerous radio navigation systems that offer the capabilities of area navigation to general ...

  5. EPA Diesel Update

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    EPA Diesel Update 2005 DEER Conference Bill Charmley EPAOffice of Transportation and Air Quality August 22, 2005 2 Overview * Implementation update on mobile source diesel...

  6. ESnet Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadapInactiveVisitingContract ManagementDiscoveringESnet Update Winter 2008 Joint Techs Workshop

  7. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  8. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  9. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  10. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  11. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  12. 33 CFR 114: Navigation and Navigable Waters | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to:Ezfeedflag JumpID-fTriWildcat 1 Windthe Commission | OpenDevelopment Guide |and Navigable

  13. LHCb Computing Resources: 2011 re-assessment, 2012 request and 2013 forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Graciani, R

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This note covers the following aspects: re-assessment of computing resource usage estimates for 2011 data taking period, request of computing resource needs for 2012 data taking period and a first forecast of the 2013 needs, when no data taking is foreseen. Estimates are based on 2010 experienced and last updates from LHC schedule, as well as on a new implementation of the computing model simulation tool. Differences in the model and deviations in the estimates from previous presented results are stressed.

  14. OpenEI Community - Navigant

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcernsCompany Oil and GasOff the GridHomeWrap-up courtesy5/0

  15. Navigant | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluatingGroup |JilinLuOpen Energy InformationNatsourceNavigant Home Graham7781's

  16. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  17. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  18. Irrigation, Navigation Flood Control and Recreation

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Irrigation,-Navigation-Flood-Control-and-Recreation- Sign In About | Careers | Contact | Investors | bpa.gov Search News & Us Expand News & Us Projects & Initiatives Expand...

  19. Navigating the complexities of dynamic ecosystem change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rhodes, Jonathan R.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Navigating the complexities of dynamic ecosystem change Novel Ecosystems: Intervening in the New Ecological World www.wiley.com  The world’s ecosystems have always been 

  20. Construction in Navigable Waters (South Carolina)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control program establishes a number of provisions regarding waters, water resources, and drainage in South Carolina. Navigable streams...

  1. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  2. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  4. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  5. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  6. Arm Navigation Tools From URDF -> Databases and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kavraki, Lydia E.

    links everything further down the kinematic tree from any group joint #12;Self-collision Operations_robot_name>_arm_navigation/config/ _planning_description.yaml multi_dof_joints - world_joint groups collision_operations is arm-navigation? A set of stable components for: Forward kinematics Robot and environment

  7. Satellite Navigation Integrity Assurance: Lessons Learned

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    Satellite Navigation Integrity Assurance: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina ION GNSS 2008 by the FAA Satellite Navigation Program Office #12;17 September 2008 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina 2 for probabilistic modeling and analysis #12;17 September 2008 Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina 3 Key Sources

  8. Stanford Center for Position, Navigation & Time

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Straight, Aaron

    contributing exciting, novel new technologies, and together can play a leading role in this technology to rejuvenate the GLONASS system · Japan is also active with QZSS. #12;6 Outline A. Navigation & time technology;2 Stanford Center for Position Navigation and Time · The implementation of GPS in 1973 began this technology

  9. Mathematical Foundations of Navigation and Perception

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crowley, James L.

    for the design of a mobile robot navigation system. The control system for a mobile robot is found to decompose a coordinated motion in an external Cartesian coordinate space. In the same sense, robot vehicles requireMathematical Foundations of Navigation and Perception For an Autonomous Mobile Robot James L

  10. Plans, Updates, Regulatory Documents

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Stewardship Environmental Protection Obeying Environmental Laws Individual Permit Documents Individual Permit: Plans, Updates, Regulatory Documents1335769200000Plans...

  11. QUALITATIVE UPDATED DISCUSSION OF ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    QUALITATIVE UPDATED DISCUSSION OF ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2012 We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981 hurricane season. Our first quantitative forecast for 2012 will be issued on Wednesday, April 4. (as of 21

  12. RETI Phase 1B Final Report Update NET SHORT RECALCULATION AND NEW PV ASSUMPTIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RETI Phase 1B Final Report Update NET SHORT RECALCULATION AND NEW PV ASSUMPTIONS With Revisions distributed photovoltaic (PV) installations in the Report is unclear and perhaps misleading. At the direction-generation is required. The CEC forecast assumed that 1,082 GWh will be self-generated by consumers from new PV

  13. Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and...

  14. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  15. Navigating nuclear science: Enhancing analysis through visualization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Irwin, N.H.; Berkel, J. van; Johnson, D.K.; Wylie, B.N.

    1997-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Data visualization is an emerging technology with high potential for addressing the information overload problem. This project extends the data visualization work of the Navigating Science project by coupling it with more traditional information retrieval methods. A citation-derived landscape was augmented with documents using a text-based similarity measure to show viability of extension into datasets where citation lists do not exist. Landscapes, showing hills where clusters of similar documents occur, can be navigated, manipulated and queried in this environment. The capabilities of this tool provide users with an intuitive explore-by-navigation method not currently available in today`s retrieval systems.

  16. Contributions to automated realtime underwater navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanway, Michael Jordan

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation presents three separate-but related-contributions to the art of underwater navigation. These methods may be used in postprocessing with a human in the loop, but the overarching goal is to enhance vehicle ...

  17. Navigation computation in the smart cockpit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Kristopher Alex

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses the design and development of a hics. software module responsible for performing various navigation computations in the smart cockpit. The goals of decreased workload and increased situation awareness for the general aviation...

  18. NAVIGATION SOFTWARE OF AUTOMATED GUIDED VEHICLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Magdalena Dobrza?ska; Pawe? Dobrza?ski

    Abstract: In the article it has been presented the structure of the control system and measurement data processing of an automated guided vehicle. The basic navigation technique – odometry, which is applied in the automated guided vehicle, has been described, as well as connected with it errors of position tracing. Next the navigation software was shown which enables to design the trajectory of the vehicle movement as well as the registration and reading of the measurement data from the measurement sensors.

  19. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  20. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  1. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  2. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  3. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  4. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  5. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  6. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  7. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  8. Power Purchase Agreements Update

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation covers an update on power purchase agreements and is given at the Spring 2011 Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) meeting.

  9. Electricity Monthly Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains...

  10. Navy Technology Evaluation Update

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation covers the Navy Technology Evaluation update at the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) meeting, held on November 18-19, 2009.

  11. TINSSL Update | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    an electronic newsletter designed to help TINSSL members keep up to date on the latest SSL news and events. TINSSL Update, May 2014 TINSSL Update, March 2014 TINSSL Update,...

  12. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  13. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  14. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    forecasting drought effects on agriculture based on waterEffects of 2009 Drought on San Joaquin Valley Agriculture

  15. Electric Turbo Compounding Technology Update

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Turbo Compounding Technology Update Electric Turbo Compounding Technology Update 15 August, 2007 Carl Vuk 15 August, 2007 Carl Vuk Electric Turbo Compounding Highlights Electric...

  16. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  17. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  18. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  19. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  20. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  1. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  2. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  4. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  5. Autonomous land navigation in a structured environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klarer, P.R. (Sandia National Lab., Advanced Technology Div., Albuquerque, NM (US))

    1990-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a hardware and software system developed to perform autonomous navigation of a land vehicle in a structured environment. The vehicle used for development and testing of the system was the Jeep Cherokee Mobile Robotics Testbed Vehicle developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque. Since obstacle detection and avoidance have not yet been incorporated into the system, a structured environment is postulated that presumes the paths to be traversed are free of obstacles. The system performs path planning and execution based on maps constructed using the vehicle's on board navigation system and map-maker. The system software, hardware and performance data are discussed.

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  8. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  9. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  10. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  11. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  12. A parallel hypothesis method of autonomous underwater vehicle navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LaPointe, Cara Elizabeth Grupe

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This research presents a parallel hypothesis method for autonomous underwater vehicle navigation that enables a vehicle to expand the operating envelope of existing long baseline acoustic navigation systems by incorporating ...

  13. Regional Navigation System Using Geosynchronous Satellites and Stratospheric Airships

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Won, Chang-Hee

    - 1 - Regional Navigation System Using Geosynchronous Satellites and Stratospheric Airships Chang navigation system using geosynchronous satellites and stratospheric airships. One important factor and stratospheric airships for the urban areas. In the beginning stage, the system would augment the existing GPS

  14. Preliminary Assessment of Alternative Navigation Means for Civil Aviation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    , particularly where it is relied upon in critical infrastructure. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA Leo Eldredge, Mitchell Narins, Federal Aviation Administration ABSTRACT The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is looking to develop alternative navigation means to global navigation satellite systems

  15. Stochastic constraints for vision-aided inertial navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diel, David D., 1979-

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis describes a new method to improve inertial navigation using feature-based constraints from one or more video cameras. The proposed method lengthens the period of time during which a human or vehicle can navigate ...

  16. Satellite Navigation in Vietnam & The NAVIS Centre

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sekercioglu, Y. Ahmet

    Satellite Navigation in Vietnam & The NAVIS Centre TA HAI TUNG (PhD) NAVIS CentreKme predefined incidents occurring; or each 30 s #12;"The mission of Navis is to boost, in South-East Asia." hcp://navis.hust.edu.vn #12;(Source: Mul,-GNSS Asia) #12;Milestones

  17. INTEGRATION OF NAVIGATIONAL AND CARTOGRAPHIC DATA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harrie, Lars

    INTEGRATION OF NAVIGATIONAL AND CARTOGRAPHIC DATA Hanna Tuvesson and Lars Harrie Real Estate of the main advantages with vector data is that it is easier to integrate data from different sources than it is with raster data. However, this requires a suitable technical environment to perform the data-integration

  18. A Web Site Navigation Engine Mark Levene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levene, Mark

    A Web Site Navigation Engine Mark Levene Department of Computer Science Birkbeck College site-specific search engines is that they are not able to pick up the "scent of information" [5 is looking for. Moreover, Hearst [2] argues that next gener- ation site-specific search engines should

  19. UTILIZATION OF MODERNIZED GLOBAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stanford University

    navigational aids owned by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) involve large costs which scale. A major role played by ground equipment in traditional aviation is that of providing assistance standpoint for aviation precision approaches. This dissertation investigates the use of a Multiple Hypothesis

  20. RAPID COMMUNICATION Navigational Skills Correlate With Hippocampal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Iaria, Giuseppe

    ; topographical orientation; virtual environment; cognitive map INTRODUCTION Evidence from human and non-humanRAPID COMMUNICATION Navigational Skills Correlate With Hippocampal Fractional Anisotropy in Humans animals (O'Keefe and Nadel, 1978; Mellet et al., 2000) has shown that successful orientation within

  1. FUPWG Spring 2010 Providence: Washington Update | Department...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Spring 2010 Providence: Washington Update FUPWG Spring 2010 Providence: Washington Update Presentation covers an update on Washington and is given at the Spring 2010 Federal...

  2. PPA Tools and Update

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PPA Tools & Update Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nel.gov October 21, 2010 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov * PPA (15 minutes) - Resources - Discussion * URESC (15...

  3. DEVELOPMENTAL LEARNING FOR VISION-BASED NAVIGATION, ATTENTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -BASED NAVIGATION, ATTENTION AND RECOGNITION By Zhengping Ji Over a half century has passed since Alan Turing

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  5. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  6. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  7. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  8. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  9. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  10. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  11. Navigating in Virtual Environments with 360 Omnidirectional Rendering Jrme Ardouin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Navigating in Virtual Environments with 360 Omnidirectional Rendering Jérôme Ardouin ESIEA - INSA to a rendering method of reference, i.e. a perspective projection, in a basic navigation task. Our results con- firm that using any omnidirectional rendering method could lead to more efficient navigation in terms

  12. Navigation in Structured Multimedia Documents using Presentation Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joseph Fourier Grenoble-I, Université

    Navigation in Structured Multimedia Documents using Presentation Context Loay Sabry­Ismail --- C in multimedia documents differs from the navigation in clas­ sical documents the fact that temporal information instants in the presentation of multimedia documents, and we describe how they can be used to navigate

  13. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  14. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  16. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  17. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  18. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  19. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  20. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  1. Time-optimal navigation through quantum wind

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dorje C. Brody; Gary W. Gibbons; David M. Meier

    2015-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The quantum navigation problem of finding the time-optimal control Hamiltonian that transports a given initial state to a target state through quantum wind, that is, under the influence of external fields or potentials, is analysed. By lifting the problem from the state space to the space of unitary gates realising the required task, we are able to deduce the form of the solution to the problem by deriving a universal quantum speed limit. The expression thus obtained indicates that further simplifications of this apparently difficult problem are possible if we switch to the interaction picture of quantum mechanics. A complete solution to the navigation problem for an arbitrary quantum system is then obtained, and the behaviour of the solution is illustrated in the case of a two-level system.

  2. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  3. Academy Member Annual Update Report 1Academy Member Update Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Academy Member Annual Update Report 1Academy Member Update Report The annual update report is an important activity associated with active membership in the Academy. These reports are due annually@lsuhsc.edu or call 504-568-2140 if you have other questions. Why an annual report? As an Academy member

  4. Program Review Updates and Briefings

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    You can learn more about the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Program by reading its program review updates and program briefings. These updates and briefings feature...

  5. Principles of X-ray Navigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, John Eric; /SLAC

    2006-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    X-ray navigation is a new concept in satellite navigation in which orientation, position and time are measured by observing stellar emissions in x-ray wavelengths. X-ray navigation offers the opportunity for a single instrument to be used to measure these parameters autonomously. Furthermore, this concept is not limited to missions in close proximity to the earth. X-ray navigation can be used on a variety of missions from satellites in low earth orbit to spacecraft on interplanetary missions. In 1997 the Unconventional Stellar Aspect Experiment (USA) will be launched as part of the Advanced Research and Global Observation Satellite (ARGOS). USA will provide the first platform for real-time experimentation in the field of x-ray navigation and also serves as an excellent case study for the design and manufacturing of space qualified systems in small, autonomous groups. Current techniques for determining the orientation of a satellite rely on observations of the earth, sun and stars in infrared, visible or ultraviolet wavelengths. It is possible to use x-ray imaging devices to provide arcsecond level measurement of attitude based on star patterns in the x-ray sky. This technique is explored with a simple simulation. Collimated x-ray detectors can be used on spinning satellites to provide a cheap and reliable measure of orientation. This is demonstrated using observations of the Crab Pulsar taken by the high Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAO-1) in 1977. A single instrument concept is shown to be effective, but dependent on an a priori estimate of the guide star intensity and thus susceptible to errors in that estimate. A star scanner based on a differential measurement from two x-ray detectors eliminates the need for an a priori estimate of the guide star intensity. A first order model and a second order model of the two star scanner concepts are considered. Many of the stars that emit in the x-ray regime are also x-ray pulsars with frequency stability approaching a part in 10{sup 9}. By observing these pulsations, a satellite can keep accurate time autonomously. They have demonstrated the acquisition and tracking of the Crab nebula pulsar by simulating the operation of a phase-locked loop.

  6. Richmond Bay Campus: Project Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Jason R.

    Coordinate with City of Richmond South Shoreline Area planning #12;Richmond Bay Campus Vision A stateRichmond Bay Campus: Project Update Prepared for the Richmond City Council October 1, 2013 #12 and UCB · City of Richmond Updates · Summary · Questions & Answers #12;LBNL Project Update #12;University

  7. Information Updates: Position/Title

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    Information Updates: Name: Position/Title: Business Mailing Address: Home Mailing Address: Phone of nurse involvement and patient education. She is an active nurse leader that brings thoughtful discussion be a chapter update for upcoming future events and plans for the future. Don't miss this exciting update! Beta

  8. CAC Update: HFBR and BGRR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    rod blades and casks has been installed and tested #12;HFBR Update #12;HFBR Update Personnel have been on procedures for completing the work · Drills and dry-runs have been conducted to develop worker proficiency under normal and off-normal conditions #12;HFBR Update Transportation cask Certificates of Compliance

  9. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  10. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  11. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  12. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  13. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  14. WECC and Peak Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WECC and Peak Update Transmission B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Pre-decisional. For Discussion Purposes Only. WECC and Peak Background In the...

  15. RESEARCH UPDATE Ecology Division

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 RESEARCH UPDATE Ecology Division Biotype has changed its name to Ecotype! Following the re-organisation of Forest Research into five science Divisions and three Support Divisions, the former Woodland Ecology Branches to form the new Ecology Division. We decided to give the divisional newsletter a new name (and

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  17. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  18. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  19. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  20. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  1. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naĂŻve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  2. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  3. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  4. Navigating Transport NAMAs | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere I Geothermal Pwer PlantMunhall, Pennsylvania: EnergyEnergy InformationNatura BioNavarro County,Navigating

  5. Navigating Roadblocks on the Path to Advanced Biofuels Deployment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Breakout Session 2: Frontiers and Horizons Session 2–C: Navigating Roadblocks on the Path to Advanced Biofuels Deployment Andrew Held, Senior Director of Feedstock Development, Virent, Inc.

  6. Stereo Vision Aided Navigation for Robotic Boats (MAS 10)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A docking system for a robotic boat using stereo vision foraided Navigation for Robotic Boats Arvind Menezes Pereira,Moorthi and David Caron. Robotic Embedded Systems Lab,

  7. OM300-GeoThermal MWD Navigation Instrument

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Develop a 300°C capable directional drilling navigation tool using Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) accelerometers and flux-gate magnetometers.

  8. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  10. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  12. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  13. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns MarĂ­a J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  14. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Joăo Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  16. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  19. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  20. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  1. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  2. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  3. Navigation of a walking robot in natural environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Portland State University

    Navigation of a walking robot in natural environments Enric Celaya and Josep María Porta Institut de Robòtica i Informàtica Industrial (UPC-CSIC) Abstract The most relevant differences existing between wheeled and legged robots, from the point of view of the expected navigation tasks to be performed

  4. Navigating through Mashed-up Applications with COMPASS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Milo, Tova

    Navigating through Mashed-up Applications with COMPASS 1 Tel-Aviv University 2 IBM Haifa Research others. To address this difficulty, we present COMPASS, a system that assists users in their navigation them may be non-trivial. To address this difficulty, we present here COMPASS, a sys- tem that assists

  5. Navigation System for Ground Vehicles using Temporally Interconnected Observers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    navigation technique for an automotive vehicle. This method involves several observers, each designed for a particular type of trajectory, that are turned on and off according to a switching policy. Each observer of observer design of vehicular systems. A typical example of such practices1 is found in the navigation

  6. Roadmap Query for Sensor Network Assisted Navigation in Dynamic Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lu, Chenyang

    Roadmap Query for Sensor Network Assisted Navigation in Dynamic Environments Sangeeta Bhattacharya approach that integrates a roadmap based navigation algorithm with a novel WSN query protocol called Roadmap Query (RQ). RQ enables collection of frequent, up-to- date information about the surrounding

  7. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  8. Progress Update: TRU Waste Shipping

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2012-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A progress update at the Savannah River Site. A continued effort on shipping TRU waste to WIPP in Carlsbad, New Mexico.

  9. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Consumer Choices of Genetically Modified Food. ” ARE UpdateConsumer Choices of Genetically Modified Food Amir HeimanConsumer Choices of Genetically Modified Food Amir Heiman

  10. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Hyunok; Sumner, Daniel A.; Martin, Philip; Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Environmental Impact of Biofuels. ” ARE Update 15(2):9-11.and the Environmental Impact of Biofuels Gal Hochman, Deepakand the Environmental Impact of Biofuels Gal Hochman, Deepak

  11. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Analysis for Evaluating Biofuels. ” ARE Update 11(3) (2008):the RFS conventional biofuels mandate is severely harmingThe first is growth in biofuels demand. Notably, corn

  12. Solution to the quantum Zermelo navigation problem

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dorje C. Brody; David Meier

    2015-02-19T23:59:59.000Z

    The solution to the problem of finding a time-optimal control Hamiltonian to generate a given unitary gate, in an environment in which there exists an uncontrollable ambient Hamiltonian (e.g., a background field), is obtained. In the classical context, finding the time-optimal way to steer a ship in the presence of a background wind or current is known as the Zermelo navigation problem, whose solution can be obtained by working out geodesic curves on a space equipped with a Randers metric. The solution to the quantum Zermelo problem, which is shown here to take a remarkably simple form, is likewise obtained by finding explicit solutions to the geodesic equations of motion associated with a Randers metric on the space of unitary operators. The result reveals that the optimal control in a sense `goes along with the wind'.

  13. Regional Portfolio Model Redevelopment Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Lost Opportunity Conservation 4. CO2 emission tracking 5. Dispatch of existing and new resources 6 futures) 11©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. E N E R G Y ­ Equilibrium electricity prices over time (able

  14. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  17. 1 POSTGRADUATE SCHOLARSHIPS UPDATE -July -August 2014 Postgraduate Scholarships Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frean, Marcus

    - August 2014 ADDRESSENQUIRIESAND YOURCOMPLETEDFORMTO: SCHOLARSHIPSMANAGER ScholarshipsOffice Victoria1 POSTGRADUATE SCHOLARSHIPS UPDATE - July - August 2014 Postgraduate Scholarships Update JulyUniversityofWellington POBox600 Wellington6140 NewZealand PHONE +64-4-4635113 EMAIL scholarships-office@vuw.ac.nz WEBSITE www.victoria

  18. Autonomous Miniature Blimp Navigation with Online Motion Planning and Re-planning

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Teschner, Matthias

    in autonomous navigation for lightweight flying robots in indoor environments. Miniature airships, which can navigate freely in three-dimensional environments. In this domain, especially airships have

  19. E-Print Network 3.0 - aware navigation based Sample Search Results

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in strategic (navigation) tasks... automation for navigation tasks. Keywords: In-vehicle automation; Automation reliability; Situation aware... reality-based driving...

  20. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  1. Building America Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update Meeting: August 2011 Building America Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update Meeting: August 2011 On this page, you may link...

  2. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 1, Session 1 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 1, Session 1 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems...

  3. Generation IV International Forum Updates Technology Roadmap...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Updates Technology Roadmap and Builds Future Collaboration Generation IV International Forum Updates Technology Roadmap and Builds Future Collaboration December 31, 2013 - 12:14pm...

  4. Utility Energy Services Contracts: Enabling Documents Update...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Update Utility Energy Services Contracts: Enabling Documents Update Presentation covers the FUPWG Fall Meeting, held on November 28-29, 2007 in San Diego, California....

  5. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  6. Next Update: November 2013

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghurajiConventionalMississippi"site. IfProved(Million Barrels)21 4.65 2013 Next Update: November

  7. Next Update: November 2013

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere IRaghurajiConventionalMississippi"site. IfProved(Million Barrels)21 4.65 2013 Next Update:

  8. Hopper Updates and Status

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) EnvironmentalGyroSolé(tm) HarmonicbetandEnergy 2010 A File Storage Updates and

  9. Carver Updates and Status

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625govInstrumentstdmadapInactiveVisiting the TWPSuccess StoriesFebruary 26,ComputersTrinitytheOptimization Updates and

  10. Updates and Status

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del SolStrengthening aTurbulence mayUndergraduateAbout Us Updates and Status Current

  11. Timeline and updates

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of ScienceandMesa del SolStrengthening a solidSynthesis ofwasSynchrotron RadiationTimeline and Updates

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  14. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  15. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  16. CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts Mid-Year Update -April 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    . Second, oil prices have risen steadily during this year, posing a significant risk to the world economy at a moderate pace -- a notch below the U.S. long-run potential growth and well below the historical rates in the first half by higher energy prices and a "soft-landing" of emerging market economies. Developments

  17. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for On-Highway4,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,9,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,Decade Year-0E (2001)gasoline prices4 Oil demand expected to rise intonetU.S.

  18. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated Net Revenues, Updated August 18, 2003

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for RenewableSpeedingBiomass and BiofuelsOversightandCenterBusiness LineAugust 18,

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  20. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  1. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  2. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  3. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  4. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  5. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  6. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  7. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  8. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  9. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  10. Zermelo Navigation in the Quantum Brachistochrone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benjamin Russell; Susan Stepney

    2015-02-20T23:59:59.000Z

    We analyse the optimal times for implementing unitary quantum gates in a constrained finite dimensional controlled quantum system. The family of constraints studied is that the permitted set of (time dependent) Hamiltonians is the unit ball of a norm induced by an inner product on su(n). We also consider a generalisation of this to arbitrary norms. We construct a Randers metric, by applying a theorem of Shen on Zermelo navigation, the geodesics of which are the time optimal trajectories compatible with the prescribed constraint. We determine all geodesics and the corresponding time optimal Hamiltonian for a specific constraint on the control i.e. k (Tr(Hc(t)^2) = 1 for any given value of k > 0. Some of the results of Carlini et. al. are re-derived using alternative methods. A first order system of differential equations for the optimal Hamiltonian is obtained and shown to be of the form of the Euler Poincare equations. We illustrate that this method can form a methodology for determining which physical substrates are effective at supporting the implementation of fast quantum computation.

  11. Gradient Navigation Model for Pedestrian Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Felix Dietrich; Gerta Köster

    2014-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a new microscopic ODE-based model for pedestrian dynamics: the Gradient Navigation Model. The model uses a superposition of gradients of distance functions to directly change the direction of the velocity vector. The velocity is then integrated to obtain the location. The approach differs fundamentally from force based models needing only three equations to derive the ODE system, as opposed to four in, e.g., the Social Force Model. Also, as a result, pedestrians are no longer subject to inertia. Several other advantages ensue: Model induced oscillations are avoided completely since no actual forces are present. The derivatives in the equations of motion are smooth and therefore allow the use of fast and accurate high order numerical integrators. At the same time, existence and uniqueness of the solution to the ODE system follow almost directly from the smoothness properties. In addition, we introduce a method to calibrate parameters by theoretical arguments based on empirically validated assumptions rather than by numerical tests. These parameters, combined with the accurate integration, yield simulation results with no collisions of pedestrians. Several empirically observed system phenomena emerge without the need to recalibrate the parameter set for each scenario: obstacle avoidance, lane formation, stop-and-go waves and congestion at bottlenecks. The density evolution in the latter is shown to be quantitatively close to controlled experiments. Likewise, we observe a dependence of the crowd velocity on the local density that compares well with benchmark fundamental diagrams.

  12. APPROVED MINORS Updated on April 4, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    New Hampshire, University of

    APPROVED MINORS Updated on April 4, 2013 Note: Please go to Department webpages for updates. Page 1;APPROVED MINORS Updated on April 4, 2013 Note: Please go to Department webpages for updates. Page 2 COLLEGE Studies Cinema Studies Classics Communication Dance Education English European Cultural Studies Forensics

  13. Flight test and evaluation of Omega navigation for general aviation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwoschinsky, Peter V.

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A seventy hour flight test program was accomplished to determine the suitability and accuracy of a low cost Omega navigation receiver in a general aviation aircraft. An analysis was made of signal availability in two widely ...

  14. DARPA looks beyond GPS for positioning, navigating, and timing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kramer, David

    2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Cold-atom interferometry, microelectromechanical systems, signals of opportunity, and atomic clocks are some of the technologies the defense agency is pursuing to provide precise navigation when GPS is unavailable.

  15. Regulation of Dams and Bridges Affecting Navigable Waters (Wisconsin)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Chapter 31 of the Wisconsin Statutes lays out the regulations relevant to dams and bridges on or near navigable waters. This statute establishes that the Department of Natural Resources has...

  16. Combining Path Integration and Remembered Landmarks When Navigating without Vision

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schrater, Paul R.

    This study investigated the interaction between remembered landmark and path integration strategies for estimating current location when walking in an environment without vision. We asked whether observers navigating without ...

  17. Computer vision based navigation for spacecraft proximity operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tweddle, Brent Edward

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The use of computer vision for spacecraft relative navigation and proximity operations within an unknown environment is an enabling technology for a number of future commercial and scientific space missions. This thesis ...

  18. Computer Vision Based Navigation for Spacecraft Proximity Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Miller February 2010 SSL # 1-10 #12;#12;Computer Vision Based Navigation for Spacecraft Proximity Operations Brent E. Tweddle, David W. Miller February 2010 SSL # 1-10 This work is based on the unaltered

  19. Navigating Roadblocks on the Path to Advanced Biofuels Deployment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Breakout Session 2: Frontiers and Horizons Session 2–C: Navigating Roadblocks on the Path to Advanced Biofuels Deployment Arunas Chesonis, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board, Sweetwater Energy

  20. Autonomous robotic wheelchair with collision-avoidance navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, Pin-Chun

    2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this research is to demonstrate a robotic wheelchair moving in an unknown environment with collision-avoidance navigation. A real-time path-planning algorithm was implemented by detecting the range to obstacles and by tracking...

  1. Imaging sonar-aided navigation for autonomous underwater harbor surveillance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johannsson, Hordur

    In this paper we address the problem of drift-free navigation for underwater vehicles performing harbor surveillance and ship hull inspection. Maintaining accurate localization for the duration of a mission is important ...

  2. Navigation without vision: bumblebee orientation in complete darkness

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chittka, Lars

    to isolate navigation mechanisms used in naturally dark situations, such as in the nest. Using infrared video altogether (such as here) can this question be answered unambiguously. To estimate direction, honeybees

  3. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  4. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  6. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  9. Knowledge-based navigation in a hypertext network

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snell, James Robert

    1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    was to investigate knowledge-based navigation in a hypertext network. Hypertext can be described as a massive network of text fragments, stored in a computer system, linked together electronically. The navigation problem is the inability of the user to move.... However, the system did not have a sufficient number of links (or potential links) to test the effectiveness properly. The final study utilized a set of dermatology class notes. The study measured time, number of moves, and success rates for subjects...

  10. An Evaluation of Pan&Zoom and Rubber Sheet Navigation with and without an Overview

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keinan, Alon

    An Evaluation of Pan&Zoom and Rubber Sheet Navigation with and without an Overview Dmitry and Zoom Navigation and Rubber Sheet Navigation, a rectilinear Focus+Context technique. Each of the two Rubber Sheet Navigation, independent of the presence or absence of an overview. Also, overviews did

  11. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  12. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  13. IEAB Invasive Mussels Update September 2013 Invasive Mussels Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................... 16 8. Update on Mussel Control Agents Area MFWP Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks NASQAN National Stream Quality Accounting Network NGO Non, respectively, during 2012. A total of 109 mussel-infested boats were found during

  14. OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcernsCompany Oil and GasOff<div class="form-item">

  15. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  16. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  17. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  18. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  19. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  20. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  1. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  2. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  3. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  4. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  5. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  8. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  9. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  10. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  11. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  12. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  13. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  14. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  15. FUPWG Fall 2009 Washington Update | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FUPWG Fall 2009 Washington Update FUPWG Fall 2009 Washington Update Presentation covers the 2009 Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) Washington update to the Lighting...

  16. Sign Up For Email Updates

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Be the first to know of the latest developments from the Energy.gov team -- from videos to infographics to live Q&A’s -- by signing up for email updates.

  17. Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Update (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sheng, S.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation was given at the Sandia Reliability Workshop in August 2013 and provides information on current statistics, a status update, next steps, and other reliability research and development activities related to the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative.

  18. BPA Wind Integration Team Update

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BPA Wind Integration Team Update Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance (CSGI) Pilot Transmission Services Customer Forum 29 July 28, 2010 B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N...

  19. Agricultural and Resource Economics Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    corn prices, but crude oil prices are also relatively highSmith. “What is the Price of Oil? ” ARE Update 11(5) (2008):ates with the prices of corn and crude oil. Until 2011 there

  20. UPDATING CONSTRAINT PRECONDITIONERS FOR KKT ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2015-03-23T23:59:59.000Z

    nevertheless, their computation may be very expensive for large-scale problems and resorting to ... updating procedure is expected to build a preconditioner which is less effective in terms of linear iterations than ..... We consider a low-rank up-.

  1. Progress Update: M Area Closure

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2012-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A progress update of the Recovery Act at work at the Savannah River Site. The celebration of the first area cleanup completion with the help of the Recovery Act.

  2. Ksplice: Automatic Rebootless Kernel Updates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaashoek, M. Frans

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Ksplice allows system administrators to apply patches to their operating system kernels without rebooting. Unlike previous hot update systems, Ksplice operates at the object code layer, which allows Ksplice to transform ...

  3. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  4. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  5. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  6. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  7. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  8. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  9. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  10. NEMA Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05242011 NEMA Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05242011 This...

  11. Global positioning system pseudolite-based relative navigation.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monda, Eric W. (University of Texas, Austin, TX)

    2004-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Though the Global Positioning System has revolutionized navigation in the modern age, it is limited in its capability for some applications because an unobstructed line of sight to a minimum of four satellites is required. One way of augmenting the system in small areas is by employing pseudolites to broadcast additional signals that can be used to improve the user's position solution. At the Navigation Systems Testing Laboratory (NSTL) at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX, research has been underway on the use of pseudolites to perform precision relative navigation. Based on the findings of previous research done at the NSTL, the method used to process the pseudolite measurements is an extended Kalman filter of the double differenced carrier phase measurements. By employing simulations of the system, as well as processing previously collected data in a real time manner, sub-meter tracking of a moving receiver with carrier phase measurements in the extended Kalman filter appears to be possible.

  12. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  13. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  14. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  15. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  16. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  17. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  18. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  19. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  20. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  1. Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcerns Jump to: navigation, searchNauru: EnergyPolicy | Open Energy

  2. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    4 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 1, Session 4 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  3. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 2, Session 3 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  4. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    2 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 3, Session 2 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  5. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    1 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 3, Session 1 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  6. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    2 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 2, Session 2 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  7. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    chaired by NETL's Kim Nuhfer, are below. ESS 2010 Update Conference - Low Cost Energy Storage - Ted Wiley, Aquion.pdf Ess 2010 Update Conference - Solid State Li Metal Batteries...

  8. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    2 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 1, Session 2 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  9. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    3 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 3, Session 3 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  10. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    chaired by DOE's Imre Gyuk, are below. ESS 2010 Update Conference - UltraBattery Grid Storage - John Wood, Ecoult.pdf ESS 2010 Update Conference - PV Plus Storage for Simultaneous...

  11. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    3 Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 1, Session 3 The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking Update Conference at...

  12. Catalog Update 2006 International Education Abroad 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gering, Jon C.

    Catalog Update 2006 International Education Abroad 1 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION ABROAD 2005-2007 CATALOG UPDATE Changes effective 2006-2007 New Courses CHN 310 China Summer Study Abroad Program 6-7 hours

  13. Baton Rouge Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Capital Region Planning Commission

    (028) SUBMITTED TO: LOUISIANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND DEVELOPMENT SUBMITTED BY: IN ASSOCIATION WITH: & FINAL Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update Baton Rouge, LA... ............................189? X. APPENDIX .........................................................................................................................195? ? Metropolitan Transportation Plan Update...

  14. DSO216_Phase_II_Summary_Updates

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Summary of DSO 216 - Phase II Update Limiting Wind Output to Scheduled Value and Curtailing Schedules to Actual Wind Generation Updated: December 13, 2013 I. PURPOSE The purpose of...

  15. Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and retail electricity prices Incorporated CO2 cost adder in all fuel prices Updated Residential, Commercial. #12;4 Retail Rates and Impact of CO2Retail Rates and Impact of CO2 Emission CostsEmission Costs to $120 dollars by 2030 ($2006) By 2030, the CO2 component of the electricity bill represents about 17

  16. Updated 17 March 2012 Curriculum Vitae

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richardson, David

    and Bioeconomy, 2011 Member, AAAS Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, 2011-2014 #12;Updated 17

  17. Updated Cost Analysis of Photobiological Hydrogen Production...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Analysis of Photobiological Hydrogen Production from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii Green Algae: Milestone Completion Report Updated Cost Analysis of Photobiological Hydrogen...

  18. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  19. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  20. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  1. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  2. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  3. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  4. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  5. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  6. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  7. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  8. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  9. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  10. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  11. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  12. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  13. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  14. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  15. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  16. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  17. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  18. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  19. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  20. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  1. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  2. Opportunity for feedback Opportunity for updates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Opportunity for feedback Opportunity for updates Opportunity to find out all of the things I don) What do these all mean? Vision (1) Values (5-10) Strategic Priorities (5-7) Education, scholarship update Research Plan Pinnacles or not? Focus on impact Update every 3 yrs Capital Plan Existing

  3. ECONOMICS UPDATE Issue 1 Autumn 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levi, Ran

    ECONOMICS UPDATE Issue 1 Economics Update Autumn 2014 UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN ­ DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN THIS ISSUE Welcome to the first Economics update! In this twice-yearly publication, we. In the Research Assessment Exercise results of 2008, 100% of Economics research, was judged to be of international

  4. Catalog Update 2006 Math & Computer Science 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gering, Jon C.

    Catalog Update 2006 Math & Computer Science 1 MATH AND COMPUTER SCIENCE DIVISION 2005-2007 CATALOG UPDATE Changes effective 2006-2007 Degree Update COMPUTER SCIENCE BACHELOR OF SCIENCE Semester Hours CS 100 Computer Science Seminar.........................1 CS 180 Foundations of Computer Science I

  5. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  6. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  7. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  8. Phase Space Navigator: Towards Automating Control Synthesis in Phase Spaces for Nonlinear Control Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Feng

    1991-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We develop a novel autonomous control synthesis strategy called Phase Space Navigator for the automatic synthesis of nonlinear control systems. The Phase Space Navigator generates global control laws by synthesizing ...

  9. Single Transponder Range Only Navigation Geometry (STRONG) applied to REMUS autonomous under water vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hartsfield, J. Carl (Jasper Carl)

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A detailed study was conducted to prove the concept of an iterative approach to single transponder navigation for REMUS Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). Although the concept of navigation with one acoustic beacon is ...

  10. Using Text Animated Transitions to Support Navigation in Document Histories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Toronto, University of

    of an animated transition between two revisions of the Wikipedia article User interfaces. ABSTRACT This article examines the benefits of using text animated transitions for navigating in the revision history of textual documents. We propose an animation technique for smoothly transitioning between different text revisions

  11. Teaching Mobile Robots to Cooperatively Navigate in Populated Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Teschner, Matthias

    of the robots highly depends on the application, we need flexible means for teaching a robot a certain robots are expected to populate our human envi- ronments for numerous applications in the near future. The desired navigation behavior of a robot highly depends on the application at hand. For example, a cleaning

  12. Visually-Guided Robot Navigation: From Artificial To Natural Landmarks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Visually-Guided Robot Navigation: From Artificial To Natural Landmarks Enric Celaya, Jose-Luis Albarral, Pablo Jim´enez, and Carme Torras Institut de Rob`otica i Inform`atica Industrial (CSIC seems to be the fast detection of reliable visual references in the image stream as the robot moves

  13. 3D navigation based on a visual memory Anthony Remazeilles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , these days, quite a common issue. Several industrial applications benefit from this technology to automate-- This paper addresses the design of a control law for vision-based robot navigation. The method proposed the possibility for the robotic system to move from one image to an other. A path finding algorithm then gives

  14. Knowledge Structures and Didactic Model Selection in Learning Object Navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Knowledge Structures and Didactic Model Selection in Learning Object Navigation Dietrich Albert' of the content of the learning objects, and (2) a `didactic preference level' of the specific preferences constraints and the didactic constraints are available. 1 Introduction According to the SCORM (Shareable

  15. Powers of Ten Thousand: Navigating in Large Information Spaces

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Powers of Ten Thousand: Navigating in Large Information Spaces Henry Lieberman Media Laboratory large display space, for example, a street map of the entire United States? The traditional solution, on a scale of at least 1 to 10,000. Powers of ten thousand The book and film Powers of Ten [Morrison

  16. An Evolvable Lunar Communication and Navigation Constellation Concept

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Born, George

    communication links with the Earth. A lunar relay element will be necessary to provide critical communication and navigation support for the upcoming missions. This paper presents a highly evolvable, low-cost lunar relay; · Use lunar exploration activities to further science, and to develop and test new approaches

  17. Using taxonomy, discriminants, and signatures for navigating in text databases

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chakrabarti, Soumen

    Using taxonomy, discriminants, and signatures for navigating in text databases Soumen Chakrabarti the natural hierarchy of topics, or taxonomy, that many corpora, such as internet directories, digital not as a flat unstructured list, but embedded in the familiar taxonomy, and annotated with document signa­ tures

  18. AUV Cooperative Operations using Acoustic Communication and Navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Idaho, University of

    1 AUV Cooperative Operations using Acoustic Communication and Navigation T. Bean*, G. Beidler*, J to collect underwater data, including sonar bathymetry in relatively deep water [1] and measurements) [3]. AUVs were used to search 3.5 million square meters of shallow water for mines in Operation

  19. Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns: Discussions among Computer as Institute for Software Research International Technical Report CMU-ISRI-03-102 School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Abstract Computer Science research and practice

  20. Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns: Discussions among appears as Computer Science Technical Report CMU­CS­03­165 School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213­3890 Abstract Computer Science research and practice are raising growing

  1. Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Navigating Computer Science Research Through Waves of Privacy Concerns: Discussions among Computer as Computer Science Technical Report CMU-CS-03-165 School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Abstract Computer Science research and practice are raising growing privacy

  2. Integrated Short Term Navigation of a Towed Underwater Body*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LeGland, François

    . An underwater body, to be called here- after the fish, is towed by a surface ship at the end of a few hundred of the fish relative to its otherwise unknown initial position, during a few minutes experiment, so, acceleration measurements pro- vided by an INS (inertial navigation system) lo- cated on board of the fish, can

  3. Risk based motion planning and navigation in uncertain dynamic environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Risk based motion planning and navigation in uncertain dynamic environment Chiara Fulgenzi, Anne of the dynamic environments. Moving obstacles are supposed to move along typical motion patterns represented the performance for a robotic wheelchair in a simulated environment among multiple dynamic obstacles. Index Terms

  4. Model Characterization of Magnetic Microrobot Navigating in Viscous Environment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    . Indeed most untethered microrobot propulsion schemes based on magnetic pulling have to face importantModel Characterization of Magnetic Microrobot Navigating in Viscous Environment Karim Belharet1.folio@ensi-bourges.fr,antoine.ferreira@ensi-bourges.fr Abstract. In this paper we aim to characterize and validate the system's dynamic model of a magnetic

  5. Drishti: An Integrated Navigation System for Visually Impaired and Disabled

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Helal, Abdelsalam

    Drishti: An Integrated Navigation System for Visually Impaired and Disabled This research was supported by Microsoft Research under grant number 4514203-12. Abdelsalam (Sumi) Helal Computer sedwin@cise.ufl.edu Balaji Ramachandran Geomatics Program, Civil Engineering, University of Florida

  6. Integrated navigation for AUV operations under ice shelves

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Griffiths, Gwyn

    Integrated navigation for AUV operations under ice shelves Gwyn Griffiths and Steve Mc One-slide summary of the Autosub AUV J Why explore beneath ice shelves? J Technology challenges: the Halliburton `Geosub' #12;Why explore beneath ice shelves? Gl oba l Wa r mi ng Li nke d t o Me l t i ng I c e c

  7. Indexing and Keyword Search to Ease Navigation in Lecture Videos

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Subhlok, Jaspal

    Indexing and Keyword Search to Ease Navigation in Lecture Videos Tayfun Tuna, Jaspal Subhlok@uh.edu, shah@cs.uh.edu Abstract----Lecture videos have been commonly used to supplement in-class teaching and for distance learning. Videos recorded during in-class teaching and made accessible online are a versatile

  8. The Connected User Interface: Realizing a Personal Situated Navigation Service

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wasinger, Rainer

    @dfki.de Karl-Ernst Steinberg BMW Research Hanauer Strasse 46 D-M¨unchen 80992 karl-ernst.steinberg@bmw.de Andreas Dirschl BMW Research Hanauer Strasse 46 D-M¨unchen 80992 andreas.dirschl@bmw.de ABSTRACT different situations. We describe the concepts behind the BPN (BMW Personal Navigator), an entirely

  9. Feature-Based Prediction of Trajectories for Socially Compliant Navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Teschner, Matthias

    in a shared environment with humans need the ability to predict the movements of people to better plan and unexpected evasive movements. In this paper, we present an algorithm for learning typical human navigation behavior. Predicting human behavior and the ability to react in a natural way will enable robots to become

  10. Reinforcement Learning based Omnidirectional Vision Agent for Mobile Robot Navigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menegatti, Emanuele

    policy for the robot. The LEM strategy is also applied to speed up learning. The knowledge acquired to support the human and robot activity in the environment with a network of smart sensors [3, 11Reinforcement Learning based Omnidirectional Vision Agent for Mobile Robot Navigation E. Menegatti1

  11. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  12. Power Rental Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation,Pillar Group BV Jump to: navigation,

  13. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  15. Progress Update: Stack Project Complete

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2012-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Progress update from the Savannah River Site. The 75 foot 293 F Stack, built for plutonium production, was cut down to size in order to prevent injury or release of toxic material if the structure were to collapse due to harsh weather.

  16. Export Control Overview and Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wood, Marcelo A.

    Export Control Overview and Update Marci Copeland, Export Control Officer #12;US Export Laws #12 items including equipment, materials, software & technology is export restricted Licensing can impact research timeline Certain imports/exports may be detained or seized by Customs in the US or in other

  17. Project Fact Sheet Project Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Project Fact Sheet Project Update: Project Brief: The works cover the refurbishment of floors 4, 5, with `wet' labs for molecular biology, materials characterisation, cell culture and flow studies, and `dry operating theatre. The Bionanotechnology Centre is one of the projects funded from the UK Government's ÂŁ20

  18. Progress Update: Stack Project Complete

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Progress update from the Savannah River Site. The 75 foot 293 F Stack, built for plutonium production, was cut down to size in order to prevent injury or release of toxic material if the structure were to collapse due to harsh weather.

  19. Wind turbine reliability database update.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peters, Valerie A.; Hill, Roger Ray; Stinebaugh, Jennifer A.; Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents the status of the Sandia National Laboratories' Wind Plant Reliability Database. Included in this report are updates on the form and contents of the Database, which stems from a fivestep process of data partnerships, data definition and transfer, data formatting and normalization, analysis, and reporting. Selected observations are also reported.

  20. Project Fact Sheet Project Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Figures: Budget: Ł51,074,000 Funding Source: Capital Plan Construction Project Programme: Start on SiteProject Fact Sheet Project Update: Project Brief: The concept of the new scheme is to redevelop Gardens project http://www.imperial.ac.uk/princesgardens/ Construction Project Team: Project Facts

  1. Washington Update March 14, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington Update March 14, 2011 Nominations for the National Climate Assessment Development a very wide range of expertise is required on the NCADAC.Nominees are sought who have · sectoral expertise, including the natural environment, agriculture and forestry, energy, land cover and land use

  2. EPA Update: NESHAP Uranium Activities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EPA Update: NESHAP Uranium Activities Reid J. Rosnick Environmental Protection Agency Radiation Protection Division (6608J) Washington, DC 20460 NMA/NRC Uranium Recovery Workshop July 2, 2009 #12 for underground uranium mining operations (Subpart B) EPA regulatory requirements for operating uranium mill

  3. Task Group 9 Update (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bosco, N.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation is a brief update of IEC TC82 QA Task Force, Group 9. Presented is an outline of the recently submitted New Work Item Proposal (NWIP) for a Comparative Thermal Cycling Test for CPV Modules to Differentiate Thermal Fatigue Durability.

  4. Building a 3D Simulator for Autonomous Navigation of Robotic Fishes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hu, Huosheng

    Building a 3D Simulator for Autonomous Navigation of Robotic Fishes Jindong Liu Department control and autonomous navigation of a robotic fish. The simplified kinematics and hydrodynamics models way to develop autonomous navigation algorithms for robotic fishes. I. INTRODUCTION In nature, fish

  5. Navigation and Control of the Nereus Hybrid Underwater Vehicle for Global Ocean Science to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whitcomb, Louis L.

    Navigation and Control of the Nereus Hybrid Underwater Vehicle for Global Ocean Science to 11,000m an overview of the navigation and control system design for the new Nereus hybrid underwater vehicle Nereus hybrid underwater vehicle and summarizes the vehicle's navigation and control performance during

  6. Vibrotactile Feedback in Steering Wheel Reduces Navigation Errors during GPS-Guided Car Driving

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Basdogan, Cagatay

    vibration motors are mounted onto the steering wheel of a driving simulator and driving experiments-based car navigation system to improve the navigation performance of a driver. In [5], vibration motors were auditory noise and distraction exist in the environment, the navigation errors (making a wrong turn

  7. SIG Technology Review Summer 1994 57 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simon, Dan

    SIG Technology Review · Summer 1994 57 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System Dan Simon and Hossny El-Sherief, TRW Ballistic Technology Review · Summer 1994 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System introduces errors

  8. Rotation-invariant appearance based maps for robot navigation using an artificial immune network algorithm

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Labrosse, Frédéric

    Rotation-invariant appearance based maps for robot navigation using an artificial immune network for robot navigation using an artificial immune network algorithm Mark Neal Fred Labrosse Dept. of Computer,ffl]@aber.ac.uk Abstract-- The treatment of image data for robotic applications such as navigation, path planning

  9. Towards More Efficient Navigation for Robots and Humans David V. Lu and William D. Smart

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smart, William

    Towards More Efficient Navigation for Robots and Humans David V. Lu and William D. Smart Abstract-- Effective robot navigation in the presence of hu- mans is hard. Not only do human obstacles move, they react to the movements of the robot according to instinct and social rules. In order to efficiently navigate around each

  10. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  11. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  12. OpenEI Community - update

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are beingZealand Jump to: navigation, searchOfRoseConcernsCompany Oil and GasOff<div/0Agency (DLA) RFP -know

  13. Using doppler radar images to estimate aircraft navigational heading error

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Doerry, Armin W. (Albuquerque, NM); Jordan, Jay D. (Albuquerque, NM); Kim, Theodore J. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2012-07-03T23:59:59.000Z

    A yaw angle error of a motion measurement system carried on an aircraft for navigation is estimated from Doppler radar images captured using the aircraft. At least two radar pulses aimed at respectively different physical locations in a targeted area are transmitted from a radar antenna carried on the aircraft. At least two Doppler radar images that respectively correspond to the at least two transmitted radar pulses are produced. These images are used to produce an estimate of the yaw angle error.

  14. Robust low-frequency spread-spectrum navigation system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Smith, Stephen F; Moore, James A

    2012-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods and apparatus are described for a navigation system. A process includes providing a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; locking the plurality of transmitters to a common timing reference; transmitting a signal from each of the plurality of transmitters. An apparatus includes a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; wherein each of the plurality of transmitters comprises a packet generator; and wherein the plurality of transmitters are locked to a common timing reference.

  15. Robust low-frequency spread-spectrum navigation system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Smith, Stephen F. (Loudon, TN); Moore, James A. (Powell, TN)

    2012-01-03T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods and apparatus are described for a navigation system. A process includes providing a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; locking the plurality of transmitters to a common timing reference; transmitting a signal from each of the plurality of transmitters. An apparatus includes a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; wherein each of the plurality of transmitters comprises a packet generator; and wherein the plurality of transmitters are locked to a common timing reference.

  16. Robust low-frequency spread-spectrum navigation system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Smith, Stephen F. (Loudon, TN) [Loudon, TN; Moore, James A. (Powell, TN) [Powell, TN

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods and apparatus are described for a navigation system. A process includes providing a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; locking the plurality of transmitters to a common timing reference; transmitting a signal from each of the plurality of transmitters. An apparatus includes a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; wherein each of the plurality of transmitters comprises a packet generator; and wherein the plurality of transmitters are locked to a common timing reference.

  17. Robust low-frequency spread-spectrum navigation system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Smith, Stephen F. (Loudon, TN); Moore, James A. (Powell, TN)

    2011-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

    Methods and apparatus are described for a navigation system. A process includes providing a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; locking the plurality of transmitters to a common timing reference; transmitting a signal from each of the plurality of transmitters. An apparatus includes a plurality of transmitters distributed throughout a desired coverage area; wherein each of the plurality of transmitters comprises a packet generator; and wherein the plurality of transmitters are locked to a common timing reference.

  18. Fuels Performance: Navigating the Intersection of Fuels and Combustion (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the only national laboratory dedicated 100% to renewable energy and energy efficiency, recognize that engine and infrastructure compatibility can make or break the impact of even the most promising fuel. NREL and its industry partners navigate the intersection of fuel chemistry, ignition kinetics, combustion, and emissions, with innovative approaches to engines and fuels that meet drivers' expectations, while minimizing petroleum use and GHGs.

  19. Updated Axion CDM energy density

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ji-Haeng Huh

    2008-10-08T23:59:59.000Z

    We update cosmological bound on axion model. The contribution from the anharmonic effect and the newly introduced initial overshoot correction are considered. We present an explicit formula for the axion relic density in terms of the QCD scale Lambda_{QCD}, the current quark masses m_q's and the Peccei-Quinn scale F_a, including firstly introduced 1.85 factor which is from the initial overshoot.

  20. GHG Update/CAP Progress ReportGHG Update/CAP Progress Report 2010 GHG Update2010 GHG Update

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhou, Pei

    i i f t d d 486­ Duke Energy emission factors decreased .486 kgCO2/kWh to .405 kgCO2/kWh · Steam Percentages 15% 1% (~328,000 MTeCO2) 13% 1% (~307,000 MTeCO2) 44% 10% 15% 49%1% 11% 44% 1% 1% 28% Electricity Update 450000 500000 250000 300000 350000 400000 CO2 100000 150000 200000 250000 MTeC 0 50000 1990 1991

  1. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  2. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  3. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  4. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  5. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  6. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  7. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  8. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  9. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  10. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  11. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  14. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  15. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  16. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  17. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  18. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  19. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  20. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    : Poster Session Energy Storage Systems 2010 Update Conference Presentations - Day 3: Poster Session The U.S. DOE Energy Storage Systems Program (ESS) conducted a record-breaking...

  3. Recovery Act Progress Update: Reactor Closure Feature

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A Recovery Act Progress Update. Decommissioning of two nuclear reactor sites at the Department of Energy's facilities has been approved and is underway.

  4. Progress Update: P-Reactor Grout

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A progress update, the Recovery Act at work at the Savannah River Site. The new phase of work on the permanent closure of two cold war nuclear reactors.

  5. Municipal Consortium Releases Updated Model Specification for...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Network section, with associated requirements. Separation of the Start-Up and Commissioning sections, with updated or enhanced requirements for both. Further refinement...

  6. June 2014 Update | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    inaugural issue of Building Technologies Update highlights a breakthrough in home refrigeration research, the new UT-ORNL Governor's Chair for High Performance Energy Practices...

  7. Refrigerant Compliance Updated: July 12, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holland, Jeffrey

    Refrigerant Compliance Policy Updated: July 12, 2012 #12;TABLE OF CONTENTS The official version ........................................................................................................ 3 A. Refrigerant Compliance Manager (RCM).................................................................. 3 B. Refrigerant Inventory Coordinator (RIC

  8. Recovery Act Progress Update: Reactor Closure Feature

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2012-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A Recovery Act Progress Update. Decommissioning of two nuclear reactor sites at the Department of Energy's facilities has been approved and is underway.

  9. Progress Update: P-Reactor Grout

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Cody, Tom

    2012-06-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A progress update, the Recovery Act at work at the Savannah River Site. The new phase of work on the permanent closure of two cold war nuclear reactors.

  10. Updating Interconnection Screens for PV System Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Abraham Ellis, Roger Hill Sandia National Laboratories Tom Key, Kristen Nicole, Jeff Smith Electric Power Research Institute Updating Interconnection Screens for PV System...

  11. BPAT Systems Update - October 10, 2014

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CommitteesTeams Customer Training Interconnection Notices Rates Standards of Conduct Tariff TF Web Based Training Notice: BPAT Systems Update Posted Date: 10102014 On Thursday,...

  12. International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications Robert J. Barro and Jong Papers #12;International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications Robert J. Barro Development at Harvard University. #12;1 International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates

  13. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  13. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  14. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  15. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppälä et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  16. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  17. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  18. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  19. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Pepco Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation Needs for Pepco's Planned June Line Outage Pepco Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation Needs for...

  2. Home Energy Score Update: New Simulation Training and Credential...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Update: New Simulation Training and Credential Requirements for Assessors Home Energy Score Update: New Simulation Training and Credential Requirements for Assessors Home Energy...

  3. Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Update - Dale...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Update - Dale Govan, Departmental Representative to the DNFSB Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Update - Dale Govan,...

  4. Updated: September 9, 2013 Queen's University Faculty of Education

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abolmaesumi, Purang

    Updated: September 9, 2013 Queen's University Faculty of Education Aboriginal Teacher Education of Practicum Review Process section has been completed. #12;Updated: September 9, 2013 Outcomes

  5. Update 3 to: A Dispersion Modeling Analysis of Downwash from...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Update 2 to: A Dispersion Modeling Analysis of Downwash from Mirant's Potomac River Power Plant, Modeling Units 1 and 4 Together More Documents & Publications Update 1 to: A...

  6. Home Energy Score Update: New Simulation Training & Credential...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Home Energy Score Update: New Simulation Training & Credential Requirements for Assessors Home Energy Score Update: New Simulation Training & Credential Requirements for Assessors...

  7. NEMA Lighting, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Equipment-- AHRI Annual Meeting CCE Overview and Update Presenation, dated April 13, 2011 NEMA Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05242011...

  8. Appliance Standards Program Schedule - CCE Overview and Update...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Meeting CCE Overview and Update Presenation, dated April 13, 2011 NEMA Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05242011 Appliance Standards Program...

  9. CEA ? External Power Supplies, CCE Overview and Update presentation...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    & Publications AHAM - CCE Overview and Update, dated 06072011 NEMA Distribution Transformers, CCE Overview and Update presentation, dated 05242011 NEMA Lighting, CCE Overview...

  10. OE Updates Organizational Structure to Operate More Strategically...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Updates Organizational Structure to Operate More Strategically and Efficiently OE Updates Organizational Structure to Operate More Strategically and Efficiently January 28, 2013 -...

  11. 2011 Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update Meeting Summary...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    2011 Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update Meeting Summary Report: Denver, Colorado - August 9-11, 2011 2011 Residential Energy Efficiency Technical Update Meeting Summary...

  12. BETTER BUILDINGS CHALLENGE PROGRESS UPDATE, MAY 2014 | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    progress-update-may2014.pdf More Documents & Publications Better Buildings Challenge Progress Update, May 2013 Better Buildings Progress Report 2012 Better Buildings Alliance for...

  13. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar and Exposition Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar and Exposition Presentation by Sunita Satyapal at the 2010 Fuel...

  14. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar and Exposition Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Update: 2010 Fuel Cell Seminar and Exposition Presentation by...

  15. Assessment of the 60 km rapid update cycle (RUC) with near real-time aircraft reports. Project report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, R.E.; Richard, C.; Kim, S.; Bailey, D.

    1998-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing the Center-TRA-CON Advisory System (CTAS), a set of Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) for en route (Center) and terminal (TRACON) airspace designed to enable controllers to increase capacity and flight efficiency. A crucial component of the CTAS, or any ATM DST, is the computation of the time-of-flight of aircraft along flight path segments. Earlier NASA studies show that accurate knowledge of the wind through which the aircraft are flying is required to estimate time-of-flight accurately. There are current envisioned to be two sources of wind data for CTAS: The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) for the Center airspace, a numerical model developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Forecast System Laboratory (FSL) and run operationally by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); and The Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminal Winds (TW) for the TRACON airspace, developed at MIT Lincoln Laboratory under funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This study has three goals: (1) determine the errors in the baseline 60 km resolution RUC forecast wind fields relative to the needs of en route DSTs such as CTAS, (2) determine the benefit of using the TW algorithm to refine the RUC forecast wind fields with near real-time Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) reports, and (3) identify factors that influence wind errors in order to improve accuracy and estimate errors in real time.

  16. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  17. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  18. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  19. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  20. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We