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1

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

3

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2006  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation.

2006-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

4

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2005  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The worldwide installed wind generation capacity increased by 25 and reached almost 60,000 MW worldwide during 2005. As wind capacity continues to grow and large regional concentrations of wind generation emerge, utilities and regional transmission organizations will increasingly need accurate same-day and next-day forecasts of wind energy generation to dispatch system generation and transmission resource and anticipate rapid changes of wind generation. The project objective is to summarize the results o...

2006-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

5

New ZealandWORKING PAPER No. 12/2010 Are Forecast Updates Progressive?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract: Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether forecast updates are progressive and whether econometric models are useful in updating forecasts. The data set for the empirical analysis are for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. The actual series for both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate are always released by the government one quarter after the release of the revised forecast, and the actual values are not revised after they have been released. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and can be explained predominantly by intuition. Additionally, the one-, two- and three-quarter forecast errors are predictable using publicly available information for both the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate, which suggests that the forecasts can be improved.

Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer; Chia-lin Chang; Philip Hans Franses; Michael Mcaleer

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Optimization and adjustment policy of two-echelon reservoir inventory management with forecast updates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A finite-horizon, periodic-review inventory model with inflow forecasting updates following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) in multiresevoirs is considered. This model introduces a new method of determining an operating policy in which ... Keywords: Adjustment, DP, Inflow forecasts, MMFE, Reservoir

Yingcheng Xu; Li Wang; Zhisong Chen; Siqing Shan; Guoping Xia

2012-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred

10

A Simple Seasonal Forecast Update of Tropical Cyclone Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple method based on the cumulative number of tropical cyclones (TCs) up to a given month in the early season is proposed to update the seasonal prediction of the annual number of TCs in a given ocean basin. For the western North Pacific, if ...

Johnny C. L. Chan

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

12

Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

Pennock, K.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012  

SciTech Connect

AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

Pennock, K.

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Navigators  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... x8 (If you hold down the tab key while ... Right-clicking on the Navigator Window will present this pop ... This example shows tracks in the left image, and ...

15

Continuous reservoir simulation model updating and forecasting using a markov chain monte carlo method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Currently, effective reservoir management systems play a very important part in exploiting reservoirs. Fully exploiting all the possible events for a petroleum reservoir is a challenge because of the infinite combinations of reservoir parameters. There is much unknown about the underlying reservoir model, which has many uncertain parameters. MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) is a more statistically rigorous sampling method, with a stronger theoretical base than other methods. The performance of the MCMC method on a high dimensional problem is a timely topic in the statistics field. This thesis suggests a way to quantify uncertainty for high dimensional problems by using the MCMC sampling process under the Bayesian frame. Based on the improved method, this thesis reports a new approach in the use of the continuous MCMC method for automatic history matching. The assimilation of the data in a continuous process is done sequentially rather than simultaneously. In addition, by doing a continuous process, the MCMC method becomes more applicable for the industry. Long periods of time to run just one realization will no longer be a big problem during the sampling process. In addition, newly observed data will be considered once it is available, leading to a better estimate. The PUNQ-S3 reservoir model is used to test two methods in this thesis. The methods are: STATIC (traditional) SIMULATION PROCESS and CONTINUOUS SIMULATION PROCESS. The continuous process provides continuously updated probabilistic forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale.

Liu, Chang

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

The Role of Monthly Updated Climate Forecasts in Improving Intraseasonal Water Allocation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning (e.g., water allocation) and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. However, the water allocated based on the climate ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Naresh Devineni; Susan Espinueva

2009-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Objective Winter Temperature Forecasts: An Update and Extension to the Western United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study expands on previous studies (Harnack and Landsberg, 1978; Harnack, 1979) in that objective, statistical winter temperature forecast models are tested and verified for three additional winters (197981); models have been formulated and ...

Robert P. Harnack

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Evaluation of Cold-Season Precipitation Forecasts Generated by the Hourly Updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The hourly updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is evaluated with regard to its ability to predict the areal extent of cold-season precipitation and accurately depict the timing and location of regions of snow, rain, and mixed-phase ...

Kyoko Ikeda; Matthias Steiner; James Pinto; Curtis Alexander

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

Mohaghegh, Shahab

20

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity 29, 2012 Preliminary Results of the Electricity Price Forecast Update As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long term wholesale electricity market price forecast. A summary of the work

Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

22

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

24

A Frequent-Updating Analysis System Based on Radar, Surface, and Mesoscale Model Data for the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) was implemented in Beijing, China, and contributed to the Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) in support of the Beijing Summer Olympics. VDRAS is a four-dimensional ...

Juanzhen Sun; Mingxuan Chen; Yingchun Wang

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Short-Term Load Forecasting by Feed-Forward Neural Networks Saied S. Sharif1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Price Forecasts 4. Updated load-resource balance by zones\\ regions · Energy · Capacity 5. Impact. Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones 3. Updated demand forecasts for each

Taylor, James H.

26

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

27

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecastsa quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Full report (4.1 mb) Full report (4.1 mb) Heating, cooling, & water heating equipment Appendix A - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case (1.9 mb) Appendix B - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Advanced Case (1.3 mb) Lighting and commercial ventilation & refrigeration equipment Appendix C - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Reference Case (1.1 mb) Appendix D - Technology Forecast Updates - Residential and Commercial Building Technologies - Advanced Case (1.1 mb) Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency Release date: August 7, 2013 Energy used in the residential and commercial sectors provides a wide range

30

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the nave method), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

32

Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress of Canada's Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Jump to: navigation, search Name Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap...

33

322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting: Similar  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Progress Report on Electricity Price Forecast As part of the Mid Term Assessment, staff is preparing a long-term wholesale electricity market price forecast. Staff will review how the forecasts are made and some Forecast Update #12;Process Overview 2 Regional Portfolio Model Electric Demand Forecasting System (Long

Luh, Peter

34

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

35

An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy ...

Gabriel Garca-Medina; H. Tuba zkan-Haller; Peter Ruggiero; Jeffrey Oskamp

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Climate Funds Update | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Funds Update Funds Update Jump to: navigation, search Name Climate Funds Update Agency/Company /Organization Overseas Development Institute, The Green Political Foundation Sector Climate Topics Finance Resource Type Training materials, Lessons learned/best practices Website http://www.climatefundsupdate. References Climate Funds Update[1] Abstract Climate Funds Update is an independent website that provides information on the growing number of international climate finance initiatives designed to help developing countries address the challenges of climate change. Climate Funds Update Screenshot "Climate Funds Update is an independent website that provides information on the growing number of international climate finance initiatives designed to help developing countries address the challenges of climate change."

38

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

39

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

40

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

An Hourly AssimilationForecast Cycle: The RUC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), an operational regional analysisforecast system among the suite of models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is distinctive in two primary aspects: its hourly assimilation cycle and its use ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Dezs Dvnyi; Stephen S. Weygandt; Kevin J. Brundage; John M. Brown; Georg A. Grell; Dongsoo Kim; Barry E. Schwartz; Tatiana G. Smirnova; Tracy Lorraine Smith; Geoffrey S. Manikin

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

A Forecasting/Nowcasting System for Remote Field Locations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Vast quantities of frequently updated weather data for both forecasting and nowcasting are generally required in meteorological field programs. The continuing synthesis of this data to suit specific operations is best accomplished using ...

Harry T. Ochs III; Stanley Q. Kidder

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Description of the NMC Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center's (NMC) Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System is described in some detail. The system consists of 1) preprocessing of the initial guess, 2) optimum interpolation objective analysis, 3) update of the ...

Masao Kanamitsu

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

46

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

47

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

An Updated Conceptual Model Of The Travale Geothermal Field Based...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Travale Geothermal Field Based On Recent Geophysical And Drilling Data Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Journal Article: An Updated Conceptual Model Of...

49

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

50

AMS FY10 Forecasting Process Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Page 1. Taking SCAP Beyond Compliance: Use cases to gaining better situational awareness Tiffany Jones Director, Public ...

2012-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

51

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

52

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this forecast gap. Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

53

Navigable Waters, Harbors and Navigation (Wisconsin)  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

This statute details regulations relevant to navigable waterways and harbors. Depending on the project design of a proposed dam or hydropower structure, some of these regulations may apply.

54

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

55

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

BARCOT, R.A.

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

58

User_Navigation  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Online Learning Center v 6.4 Online Learning Center v 6.4 User Job Aid Navigation © 2012 Department of Energy - 1 - Online Learning Center (OLC) Job Aid: Navigation Purpose The purpose of this job aid is to guide users through the step-by-step process of navigating and identifying areas of the OLC, The Department of Energy's Learning Management System (LMS) user interface, and identifying some commonly used navigation icons. Identify Areas of the User Interface Task A Navigation Tips Task B How to Access in Online Learning Center Task C Online Learning Center v 6.4 User Job Aid Navigation © 2012 Department of Energy - 2 - Online Learning Center (OLC) Task A. Identify Areas of the OLC User Interface (OLC) Top Menu: Use the Home menu options in the top menu to navigate within the Online

59

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

60

NIST Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... January 17, 2008 Press Release From Mayor Bloomberg's STATE OF THE CITY ADDRESS Page 8. JM Butler - NIST Update for SWGDAM ...

2008-07-23T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

62

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

63

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

64

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

65

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

66

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

67

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

68

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

69

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Monthly Update Explained Electricity Monthly Update Explained Highlights The Highlights page features in the center a short article about a major event or an informative topic. The left column contains bulleted highlights at the top and key indicators in a table and graphics - data you might be interested in at a glance. The right column is used for navigation. End-Use: Retail Rates/Prices and Consumption The second section presents statistics on end-use: retail rates/prices and consumption of electricity. End-use data is the first "data page" based on the assumption that information about retail electricity service is of greatest interest to a general audience. The term rates/prices is used because charges for retail service are based primarily on set rates approved by State regulators. However, a number of

70

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

Andr Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Surveying navigation modelling approaches  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Recently, a number of authors who work on web application modelling have paid attention to the ideas regarding separation of concerns that underlie aspect-orientation, as well as some ideas that come from the model-driven development community. ... Keywords: internet, navigation modelling, separation of concerns, web application modelling, web engineering, web navigation

Antonia M. Reina-Quintero

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov September 10, 2012 - 2:16pm Q&A What do you think about the new EnergySaver.gov? Ask Us Addthis This video shows you how to navigate the new EnergySaver.gov. Rebecca Matulka Rebecca Matulka Digital Communications Specialist, Office of Public Affairs What does this mean for me? We have updated Energy Saver's design to make it easier to find your favorite energy-saving tips and advice. A new Energy Saver feature -- Savings Projects -- include step-by-step instructions on ways to make home energy efficiency improvements. For regular readers of Energy Savers, you might have noticed something different when you visited the site today. Not only does it have an updated name and design, it also has a new feature to help you take practical

74

Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov Navigating the New EnergySaver.gov September 10, 2012 - 2:16pm Q&A What do you think about the new EnergySaver.gov? Ask Us Addthis This video shows you how to navigate the new EnergySaver.gov. Rebecca Matulka Rebecca Matulka Digital Communications Specialist, Office of Public Affairs What does this mean for me? We have updated Energy Saver's design to make it easier to find your favorite energy-saving tips and advice. A new Energy Saver feature -- Savings Projects -- include step-by-step instructions on ways to make home energy efficiency improvements. For regular readers of Energy Savers, you might have noticed something different when you visited the site today. Not only does it have an updated name and design, it also has a new feature to help you take practical

75

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

76

The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were ...

Stanley G. Benjamin; Barry E. Schwartz; Steven E. Koch; Edward J. Szoke

2004-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

A Perfect Prognosis Scheme for Forecasting Warm-Season Lightning over Florida  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study develops and evaluates a statistical scheme for forecasting warm-season lightning over Florida. Four warm seasons of analysis data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network are ...

Phillip E. Shafer; Henry E. Fuelberg

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Because poor visibility conditions have a considerable influence on airport traffic, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL)-Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (...

Samuel Rmy; Thierry Bergot

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

79

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

80

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2011-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Vision based robot navigation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In this thesis we propose a vision-based robot navigation system that constructs a high level topological representation of the world. A robot using this system learns to recognize rooms and spaces by building a hidden ...

Roth, Daniel R. (Daniel Risner), 1979-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

85

Weather Forecasting for Utility Companies For energy and utility companies, expected local weather conditions during the next day or two are  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SUBJECT: Revised Short-term Electricity Loads and Forecast 2008-2017 As part of the Mid-term Assessment-term electricity loads and forecast 2008-2017- boise 2012 .docx #12;6/28/2012 1 REVISED SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY and as input to the Resource Adequacy analysis, we have prepared an update to the regional load forecast

86

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. 3, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, January 20, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 12, 2011) Wholesale natural gas prices at most market locations east of the Mississippi River moved higher this week as a bitter cold moved into the eastern half of the country. West of the Mississippi River, a gradual warming trend resulted in lower prices. During the report week (January 5-12), the Henry Hub spot price increased $0.03 to $4.55 per million Btu (MMBtu). At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices increased during the report week, likely in part due to forecasts of continuing cold weather and improving economic conditions. The futures

87

FSMA update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The US Department of Agriculture released two new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act: the Foreign Supplier Verification Program and the Accreditation of Third-Party Auditors. FSMA update Publications aocs articles book books cdrom cdrom

88

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov The Parker Ranch installation in Hawaii Federal Energy Management Program Federal/Utility Partnership Working Group David McAndrew October 20, 2010 Rapid City, SD Washington Update 2 | Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov Presentation Overview * FEMP Updates * GHG Guidance Update * EISA Section 432 Update * Mark Your Calendar 3 | Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) eere.energy.gov * Richard Kidd is leaving FEMP - Will become Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability - Skye Schell will assume the role of interim Program Manager * Jesse Feinberg (Energetics) departed over the summer to attend grad school Columbia * Sarah Mabbitt (smabbitt@energetics.com)

89

NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a ...

Robert Rogers; Sim Aberson; Altug Aksoy; Bachir Annane; Michael Black; Joseph Cione; Neal Dorst; Jason Dunion; John Gamache; Stan Goldenberg; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan; John Kaplan; Bradley Klotz; Sylvie Lorsolo; Frank Marks; Shirley Murillo; Mark Powell; Paul Reasor; Kathryn Sellwood; Eric Uhlhorn; Tomislava Vukicevic; Jun Zhang; Xuejin Zhang

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts, Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

94

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Due to the observance of Veterans Day on Monday, November 12, the next Natural Gas Weekly Update, will be published on Tuesday, November 13, 2001. Due to the observance of Veterans Day on Monday, November 12, the next Natural Gas Weekly Update, will be published on Tuesday, November 13, 2001. Overview: Monday, November 5, 2001 Spot prices at the Henry Hub began the week up then trended down to end the week 10 cents below the previous Friday at $2.96 per MMBtu. This represents a reversal from the pattern of a week earlier when the Henry Hub price gained more than $0.70 per MMBtu on a Friday-to-Friday basis. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in most parts of the country last week along with forecasts calling for the moderate weather to continue into the weekend contributed to the decline in prices. .(See Temperature Map) (See Deviation Map) Estimates of weekly net additions to storage again were below normal levels for this time of year but the total working gas in storage remained above average and well above volumes at this time last year. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil moved down $1.95 per barrel for the week to end trading on Friday at $20.20 or $3.48 per MMBtu.

97

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

102

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Federal Energy Management Federal Energy Management Program Federal/Utility Partnership Working Group David McAndrew April 14, 2010 Providence RI Washington Update Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 Presentation Overview * EO 13514 - Strategic Sustainability Plans * DOE's approach * EISA section 432 update * Outreach Opportunities - Federal Energy Management Awards - Energy Empowers Campaign - GovEnergy Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 4 EO13514 Sustainability Plans Update Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 5 EO 13514 Goals In addition to GHG goals, the EO requires agencies to meet sustainability targets, including: * 30% reduction in vehicle fleet petroleum use by 2020; * 26% reduction in potable, industrial, landscaping, and agricultural water consumption by 2020;

104

Navigating videos by location  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The combination of images with geographical information has gained a lot of attention; systems like Google Street View (GSV) have become an integral part of our daily routine and uploading and sharing geotagged images becomes more and more popular. With ... Keywords: geotagging, interactive video tour, video navigation

Philip Mildner; Frederik Claus; Stephan Kopf; Wolfgang Effelsberg

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

Forecasters Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Ivn Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Srensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.

Petty, S.; Porro, G.

2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Update Information  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Washington, DC 20585This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIAs data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.

unknown authors

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Updated 611-Month Prediction of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An updated statistical scheme for forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin by 1 December of the previous year is presented. Previous research by Gray and colleagues at Colorado State University showed that a ...

Philip J. Klotzbach; William M. Gray

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

111

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

112

Critical Update - Renwable Guidance Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Renewable Update Renewable Update FUPWG May 1, 2007 Chandra Shah, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 303-384-7557, chandra_shah@nrel.gov Presentation Overview * Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 05) Federal Renewable Goal * Executive Order 13423 & Instructions * EPACT/EO Renewable Goal Guidance * Federal Renewable Use Update * Innovative Renewable Projects 3  Section 203 (a) Requirement- The President, acting through the Secretary, shall seek to ensure that, to the extent economically feasible and technically practicable, of the total amount of electric energy the Federal Government consumes during any fiscal year, the following amounts shall be renewable energy:  (1) Not less than 3% in FY07-09  (2) Not less than 5% in FY10-FY12  (3) Not less than 7.5% in FY13 & each fiscal year thereafter.

113

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Recent STRBase Updates  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... page. 30-Jan-2012 Updates to NIST publications and presentations; added new variant alleles; updated cat STRs section. 9 ...

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

115

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

116

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

117

Navigation drilling technology progresses  

SciTech Connect

This article reports that navigation drilling - an approach that combines advanced drill bit, downhole motor, measurement-while-drilling, and well planning technology into an integrated, steerable drilling system - has reduced drilling time for operating companies worldwide. A major operating advantage of navigation drilling is the ability to drill both straight and directional intervals with a single assembly. In conventional directional drilling, a bent sub and downhole motor (or a bent housing motor) are used to initiate kick-offs and make course corrections. The bent sub is made-up above the motor, tilting the motor's axis 1 to 3 degrees compared to the axis of the drill string. The assembly toolface can be aligned in the desired direction with a single-shot, a steering tool or an MWD system.

Bayne, R.

1986-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

Inland Navigation Districts and Florida Inland Navigation District Law  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Inland Navigation Districts and Florida Inland Navigation District Inland Navigation Districts and Florida Inland Navigation District Law (Florida) Inland Navigation Districts and Florida Inland Navigation District Law (Florida) < Back Eligibility Agricultural Commercial Construction Fed. Government Fuel Distributor General Public/Consumer Industrial Installer/Contractor Institutional Investor-Owned Utility Local Government Low-Income Residential Multi-Family Residential Municipal/Public Utility Nonprofit Residential Retail Supplier Rural Electric Cooperative Schools State/Provincial Govt Systems Integrator Transportation Tribal Government Utility Savings Category Water Buying & Making Electricity Home Weatherization Program Info State Florida Program Type Siting and Permitting Provider Florida Inland Navigation District (FIND) The first part of this legislation establishes Inland Navigation Districts,

120

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

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121

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

122

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

October 16, 2012 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 2 Presentation Overview The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 Commit to Efficiency Customer Service Other FEMP Activities Update on Presidential Memo Commit to Efficiency OMB M-12-21 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 Commit to Efficiency Customer Service Other FEMP Activities Update on Presidential Memo Commit to Efficiency OMB M-12-21 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 4 The Federal Buildings Personnel Training Act of 2010 * What the Act does - Requires Training of Federal Employees to maintain core competency in their ability to operate and maintain Federal Facilities

123

Progress Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Update Update FALL 2013 Learn more at eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/tech_assistance/betterplants/ The Better Buildings, Better Plants Program is a national partnership initiative that challenges industry to set and meet ambitious energy-saving targets. Across the United States, manufacturers spend more than $200 billion each year to power their plants. 1 The industrial sector has the potential to invest more than $100 billion in cost-effective, energy-efficiency technologies by 2020, which would result in annual energy savings of almost $50 billion. 2 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) data demonstrates that many facilities can save 15% or more annually through projects with payback periods of less than three years. 3 Better Plants Partners are working with DOE

124

EEI Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

EEI Update EEI Update Steve Kiesner Director, National Customer Markets Edison Electric Institute FUPWG October 25, 2011 Philadelphia, PA Today's Discussion Current Electricity Landscape  Emerging Issues  Infrastructure investment  M&A  Political landscape  Grid modernization Changing Electric Utility Landscape  Utility industry has embarked on a major investment cycle, driven by the need to address:  Generation, Transmission, and Distribution to ensure reliability  Energy Efficiency and deploying new technologies (SG, renewables)  Significant Environmental CAPEX  Concerns about the Environment has Changed our Power Supply Mix  Short -term: Rely on Energy Efficiency, Renewables, and Natural Gas  Medium-term: Targets should be harmonized with the development

125

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Federal Energy Management Program Federal Energy Management Program Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting: Washington Update Dr. Timothy Unruh October 25-26, 2011 Philadelphia, PA 2 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov Presentation Overview  Federal Government Goals and Status  FEMP Update  UESC Program Overview and Goals  Mark Your Calendar: Spring 2012 FUPWG 3 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov FEMP's Mission FEMP provides the services, tools, and expertise to Federal agencies to help them achieve their legislated and executive ordered energy, greenhouse gas, and water goals. This is delivered through project financing services, technical assistance, and communications and training. 4 | Federal Energy Management Program eere.energy.gov

126

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

127

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Forecasting in the Presence of Level Shifts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 : 537-560. Hamilton JD.430. Harvey AC. 1989. Forecasting, structural time seriesMH, Timmermann A. 1994. Forecasting stock returns: An

Smith, Aaron

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

10621088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgssner, G. , and U. K.2005): Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

FROM ANALYSTS ' EARNINGS FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We examine the accuracy and bias of intrinsic equity prices estimated from three accounting-based valuation models using analysts earnings forecasts over a four-year horizon. The models are: (a) the earnings capitalization model, (b) the residual income model without a terminal value, and (c) the residual income model with a terminal value that assumes residual income will grow beyond the horizon at a constant rate determined from the expected residual income growth rate over the forecast horizon. Our analysis is based on valuation errors that are calculated by comparing estimated prices to actual prices. We contribute to the literature by examining whether: (i) the analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book value and dividends, (ii) the use of firm specific growth rates in terminal value calculations results in more unbiased and accurate valuations than the use of constant growth rates, and (iii) different models perform better under different ex-ante conditions. We find that analysts earnings forecasts convey information about value beyond that conveyed by current earnings, book values and dividends. Each of the models that we used has valuation errors that decline monotonically as the horizon increases implying that earnings forecasts at each horizon convey new value relevant information. We cannot find a clear advantage to using firm specific growth rates instead of a constant rate of 4 % across all sample

Theodore Sougiannis; Takashi Yaekura

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

ESnet Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

ESnet Update ESnet Update Winter 2008 Joint Techs Workshop Joe Burrescia ESnet General Manager January 21, 2008 Energy Sciences Network Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Networking for the Future of Science 2 TWC SNLL YUCCA MT PNNL LIGO I N E E L LANL SNLA Allied Signal ARM KCP NOAA OSTI ORAU SRS JLAB PPPL Lab DC Offices MIT ANL BNL FNAL AMES N R E L LLNL GA DOE-ALB OSC GTN NNSA International (high speed) 10 Gb/s SDN core 10G/s IP core 2.5 Gb/s IP core MAN rings (≥ 10 G/s) Lab supplied links OC12 ATM (622 Mb/s) OC12 / GigEthernet OC3 (155 Mb/s) 45 Mb/s and less NNSA Sponsored (12) Joint Sponsored (3) Other Sponsored (NSF LIGO, NOAA) Laboratory Sponsored (6) 42 end user sites SINet (Japan) Russia (BINP) CA*net4 France GLORIAD (Russia, China) Korea (Kreonet2

133

Integration of Variable Generation Forecasting into System Operations: Current Practices and Future Requirements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This project update provides the first output of the EPRI Bulk Renewable Integration Program Project P173-010, Integration of Variable Generation Forecasts into System Operations. This project, begun in 2013, aims to improve existing methods utilities/independent system operators (ISOs) use to integrate forecasts into system operations and develop new methods. This years goal was to identify current practices and future requirements. This was done by interacting with a wide ...

2013-12-11T23:59:59.000Z

134

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast

135

NIST Deputy Director's Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... Page 10. Safety at NIST -- update Update on NRC actions from plutonium spill FY09 highlights Develop high level NIST requirements ...

2012-10-13T23:59:59.000Z

136

APS Technical Update Index  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updates Technical Updates are notices that share beamline technical and operations developments with APS users. For additional information contact the APS User Technical Interface....

137

Washington Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

April 11, 2012 Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 2 1. Status of Federal Goals 2. Presidential Memo * Key provisions * Role of UESCs * Agency commitments 3. Meeting Memo's Goals * New Programs * Financing * Reporting and Resources 4. FEMP Update 5. Mark Your Calendar: GovEnergy 2012 Agenda Federal Energy Management Program femp.energy.gov 3 $169 $181 $291 $281 $335 $469 $1,081 $3,544 $2,565 $122 $54 $92 $70 $139 $110 $142 $64 $165 $429 $36 $123 $314 $166 $356 $457 $563 $369 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions Fiscal Year Direct Appropriations UESC ESPC $271 $505 $666 (ESPC Hiatus) $720 $640 $935 $1,681 $4,171 $3,100 Status of Federal Goals Federal Facilities: Investment in Energy Efficient Projects

138

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW

139

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others

140

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 ­ List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 3, 2145­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC ­ Department­2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

142

4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

OSD 4, 189­212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

143

FINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

predecessors to forecast stock prices and manage portfolios for approximately 3 years.) We examineFINANCIAL FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS SAM MAHFOUD and GANESH MANI LBS Capital Management entitled Genetic Algorithms for Inductive Learning). Time-series forecasting is a special type

Boetticher, Gary D.

144

Forecast of auroral activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting

A. T. Y. Lui

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

146

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CHP (onsite and wholesale) in California ­ accounts for the AB 32 mandates, RPS, and CPUC CHP Existing Renewable Generation In-State Renewable Energy · For all RPS-eligible generators, staff averaged the 2006-2011 QFER reported generation · In-state RPS-eligible with COD after 1/1/2011 and prior to 12

147

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

148

PRICE & AVAILABILITY UPDATES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

4.3 Price & Availability Updates File when titles transferred to new supplier..................... 5 4.4 Format of the Day element in Availability Dates......................................................... 5 5 Example of Price & Availability Updates transmission....................................................... 5 6 Price & Availability Updates file header............................................................................. 7 Example of a complete Price & Availability Updates file header....................................... 12 7 Price & Availability Updates message level content...................................................... 13 8 Price & Availability Updates line level content............................................................... 14 Example showing Order "line level " segments NOI to DNC.............................................. 21 9 Price & Availability Updates message trailer.................................................................... 21 10 Price & Availability Updates file trailer............................................................................ 22 NOTE: The TRADACOMS Price & Availability Updates message is not recommended for new implementations. The recommended formats for the communication of book product information are the ONIX for Books Product Information message and Supply Update message.

unknown authors

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

Information and Inference in Econometrics: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Application: Forecasting Equity Premium . . . . . . . . . .2.6.1 Forecasting4 Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models 4.1

Tu, Yundong

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofidentify with useful forecasting skill the very few inmatescontribute substantially to forecasting skill necessarily

Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

154

Chapter 11 Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for normal forces and the one for break drivers, then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Jennifer L. Castle; Nicholas W. P. Fawcett; David F. Hendry

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Automatic Adjustment of AVHRR Navigation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An automatic adjustment method of the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images navigation has been developed for operational use at the Centre de Mtorologic Spatiale (CMS) in Lannion, France. Selected coastal landmarks are ...

Philippe Bordes; Pascal Brunel; Anne Marsouin

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Forecasting Uncertain Hotel Room Demand  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Economic systems are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winters method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for rooms at a hotel for each arrival day. Forecasting is part of hotel revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make rooms available for customers and at what price. The forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does not incorporate management expertise. Even though, forecast results are found to be satisfactory for certain days, this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment is important when dealing with ...

Mihir Rajopadhye Mounir; Mounir Ben Ghaliay; Paul P. Wang; Timothy Baker; Craig V. Eister

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library Conference Paper: Updating the Classification of Geothermal Resources Abstract Resource classification is a key element in the characterization, assessment and development of energy resources, including geothermal energy. Stakeholders at all levels of government, within the geothermal industry, and among the general public need to be able to use and understand consistent terminology when addressing geothermal resource issues such as location, quality, feasibility of development, and potential impacts. This terminology must encompass both the fundamentally geological nature of geothermal resources and the practical technological and economic

158

Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress of Canada's  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Page Page Edit with form History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress of Canada's Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Canadian Fuel Cell Commercialization Roadmap Update: Progress of Canada's Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Focus Area: Hydrogen Topics: Potentials & Scenarios Website: www.chfca.ca/files/IC_FC_PDF_final.pdf Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/canadian-fuel-cell-commercialization- Language: English Policies: Deployment Programs DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance This roadmap update provides an overview of global hydrogen and fuel cell markets as context for the activities of the Canadian industry. It presents

159

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or

160

Use of Distance-measuring Equipment (DME) for Correcting Errors in Position, Velocity, and Wind Measurements from Aircraft Inertial Navigation Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Aircraft distance-measuring-equipment (DME) data are used to update position, velocity, and wind measurements from inertial navigation systems (INS) measurements. Data from conventional single-channel DME sets, suitably calibrated, are shown to ...

Alfred R. Rodi; James C. Fankhauser; Robin L. Vaughan

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Aviation forecasting and systems analyses  

SciTech Connect

The 9 papers in this report deal with the following areas: method of allocating airport runway slots; method for forecasting general aviation activity; air traffic control network-planning model based on second-order Markov chains; analyzing ticket-choice decisions of air travelers; assessing the safety and risk of air traffic control systems: risk estimation from rare events; forecasts of aviation fuel consumption in Virginia; estimating the market share of international air carriers; forecasts of passenger and air-cargo activity at Logan International Airport; and forecasting method for general aviation aircraft and their activity.

Geisinger, K.E.; Brander, J.R.G.; Wilson, F.R.; Kohn, H.M.; Polhemus, N.W.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Studies of inflation and forecasting.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??This dissertation contains five research papers in the area of applied econometrics. The two broad themes of the research are inflation and forecasting. The first (more)

Bermingham, Colin

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

Lew, D.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

165

win0203SelUpdates0303.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

En En ergy Outlook -- October 2002 Updated Feb 2003) 1 Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 Selected Table and Figure Updates Based on the March 2003 Short-Term Energy Outlook Figure WF1. U.S. Winter Natural Gas Demand (Year-to-Year Percent Change) Table WF1. Illustrative Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Actual Actual Actual Base Forecast Natural Gas (Midwest) Consumption (mcf) 81.7 99.1 81.3 92.1 Avg. Price ($/mcf) 6.69 9.54 7.33 8.43 Expenditures ($) 546 945 596 776 Heating Oil (Northeast) Consumption (gals) 644 731 584 751 Avg. Price ($/gal) 1.16 1.37 1.10 1.37 Expenditures ($) 751 999 643 1029 Propane (Midwest) Consumption (gals) 807 979 803 910 Avg. Price ($/gal)

166

Edison News and Updates  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

News and Updates Edison News and Updates Subject Date Author Edison will be reserved for system debugging every other day starting from 10102013 Thursday 16:00 PDT 2013-12-13...

167

Timeline and updates  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updates Timeline and Updates CDT 1.10 was set to default on Edison November 27, 2013 | 0 Comments During today's maintenance, we upgraded the Cray Developer Toolkit (CDT) version...

168

Computer vision techniques for underwater navigation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Vision Techniques for Underwater Navigation A thesisand J. Amat. Positioning an underwater vehicle through imageand S. Feder. Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation. MIT

Barngrover, Christopher M.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

On the Prediction of Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using 10-day forecast 500 mb height data from the last 7 yr, the potential to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts is discussed. Four possible predictor sets are described. The first, giving the consistency between adjacent forecasts, ...

T. N. Palmer; S. Tibaldi

1988-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The ...

Lance F. Bosart

2003-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

174

Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

One goal of weather and climate forecasting is to inform decision making. Effective communication of forecasts to various sectors of the public is essential for meeting that goal, yet studies repeatedly show that forecasts are not well understood ...

Karen Pennesi

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Lagged Ensembles, Forecast Configuration, and Seasonal Predictions  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An analysis of lagged ensemble seasonal forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), is presented. The focus of the analysis is on the construction of lagged ensemble forecasts ...

Mingyue Chen; Wanqiu Wang; Arun Kumar

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

What Is the True Value of Forecasts?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Understanding the economic value of weather and climate forecasts is of tremendous practical importance. Traditional models that have attempted to gauge forecast value have focused on a best-case scenario, in which forecast users are assumed to ...

Antony Millner

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

179

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Costs with Experience Curves  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

April, 5. R 2~1. Dino. "Forecasting the Price Evolution of 1ElectromcProducts," Ioumal of Forecasting, oL4, No I, 1985.costs and a set of forecasting tools that can be refined as

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 14 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, ...

Andreas P. Weigel; Daniel Baggenstos; Mark A. Liniger; Frdric Vitart; Christof Appenzeller

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

182

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

183

A Forecast for the California Labor Market  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

issue for the state. A Forecast for the California Laborto Go? The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation andAngeles: UCLA Anderson Forecast: Nation 1.1 1.9. Dhawan,

Mitchell, Daniel J. B.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK STAFFREPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400.................................................................................. 9 Sources of Forecast Error....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2

185

Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are ...

David R. Novak; David R. Bright; Michael J. Brennan

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of atmospheric variables are often given as relative frequencies obtained from ensembles of deterministic forecasts. The detrimental effects of imperfect models and initial conditions on the quality of such forecasts can ...

Cristina Primo; Christopher A. T. Ferro; Ian T. Jolliffe; David B. Stephenson

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

188

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting women's apparel sales using mathematical modeling Celia Frank and Ashish Garg, USA Les Sztandera Philadelphia University, Philadelphia, PA, USA Keywords Apparel, Forecasting average (MA), auto- regression (AR), or combinations of them are used for forecasting sales. Since

Raheja, Amar

189

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

From 1 August 1990 to 31 July 1995, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh prepared 6159 probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasts were made twice a day for 24-h periods beginning at 0000 and 1200 UTC for two river ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; Ashley A. Sigrest

1999-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both sea ice forecast models and methods to measure their skill are needed for operational sea ice forecasting. Two simple sea ice models are described and tested here. Four different measures of skill are also tested. The forecasts from the ...

Robert W. Grumbine

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A cloud model ensemble forecasting approach is developed to create forecasts that describe the range and distribution of thunderstorm lifetimes that may be expected to occur on a particular day. Such forecasts are crucial for anticipating severe ...

Kimberly L. Elmore; David J. Stensrud; Kenneth C. Crawford

2002-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

When professional forecasters repeatedly forecast macroeconomic variables, their forecasts may converge over time towards a consensus. The evolution of consensus is analyzed with Blue Chip data under a parametric polynomial decay function that permits flexibility in the decay path. For the most part, this specification fits the data. We test whether forecast differences decay to zero at the same point in time for a panel of forecasters, and discuss possible explanations for this, along with its implications for studies using panels of forecasters.

Allan W. Gregory; James Yetman; Jel Codes C E; Robert Eggert; Fred Joutz

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal ...

D. Syrakov; K. Ganev; M. Prodanova; N. Miloshev; G. Jordanov; E. Katragkou; D. Melas; A. Poupkou; K. Markakis

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their ...

H. M. van Den Dool; Suranjana Saha

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Title Improving Forecasting: A plea for historical retrospectives Publication Type Journal Article Year of Publication...

198

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

200

PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Jump to: navigation, search Name PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico Agency/Company /Organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sector Energy Topics Co-benefits assessment, - Environmental and Biodiversity, - Health, Background analysis Resource Type Publications Website http://www.pnl.gov/atmospheric Country Mexico UN Region Latin America and the Caribbean References PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in Mexico[1] PNNL Publications on WRF-Chem modeling in Mexico include: Fast JD, M Shrivastava, RA Zaveri, and JC. Barnard. 2010. "Modeling particulates and direct radiative forcing from urban to synoptic scales downwind of Mexico City." Annual European Geosciences Union Assembly,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place Seattle, Washington Zip 98121 Sector Renewable Energy Product Seattle-based, renewable energy assessment and forecasting company. Coordinates 47.60356°, -122.329439° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":47.60356,"lon":-122.329439,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

202

Adaptive navigation for autonomous robots  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In many robotic exploration missions, robots have to learn specific policies that allow them to: (i) select high level goals (e.g., identify specific destinations), (ii) navigate (reach those destinations), (iii) and adapt to their environment (e.g., ... Keywords: Learning, evolution, Learning, neural networks, Learning, single agent, Robotics, adaptation

Matt Knudson; Kagan Tumer

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Navigation protocols in sensor networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We develop distributed algorithms for adaptive sensor networks that respond to directing a target through a region of space. We model this problem as an online distributed motion planning problem. Each sensor node senses values in its perception space ... Keywords: Sensor networks, motes, navigation, potential field, robotics

Qun Li; Daniela Rus

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Navigation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Table of Contents. Index. Search. Glossary. Favorites. Browse Sequences. Topic Comments. Recent Comments.

206

Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast

207

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Quantitative hydrologic forecasting usually requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. First, it is important to accurately measure the precipitation falling over a particular watershed of interest. Second, ...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Michael D. Hudlow

1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l­ Load forecast methodology ­ Drivers of the forecast f i­ Treatment of conservation ­ Incorporating impact of weather ­ Forecast for 2019 #12;Regional Loads (MWA and MW)Regional Loads (MWA and MW

209

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals

210

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia

211

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions

Yip Chee Yin; Ng Kok-Haur; Lim Hock-Eam

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

213

Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating

Hamill, Tom

214

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form

215

Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates

216

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

217

GUA Update, March 2013  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Gasification Users Group (GUA) Update is published quarterly and provides information on gasification projects in development and in construction, along with a summary of new integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)/ gasification technology developments. The following articles are featured in this issue of the GUA Update:Quarterly SummaryOngoing U.S. Energy Program UpdatesEuropean Union Plans Support of Multiple CCS ...

2013-04-29T23:59:59.000Z

218

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Fuzzy forecasting with DNA computing  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

There are many forecasting techniques including: exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, GARCH model, neural networks and genetic algorithm, etc. Since financial time series may be influenced by many factors, conventional model based techniques and hard ...

Don Jyh-Fu Jeng; Junzo Watada; Berlin Wu; Jui-Yu Wu

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Sampling Errors in Seasonal Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The limited numbers of start dates and ensemble sizes in seasonal forecasts lead to sampling errors in predictions. Defining the magnitude of these sampling errors would be useful for end users as well as informing decisions on resource ...

Stephen Cusack; Alberto Arribas

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of probabilistic forecast verification is approached from a theoretical point of view starting from three basic desiderata: additivity, exclusive dependence on physical observations (locality), and strictly proper behavior. By ...

Riccardo Benedetti

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

222

Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current field forecast verification measures are inadequate, primarily because they compress the comparison between two complex spatial field processes into one number. Discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) applied to analysis and contemporaneous ...

William M. Briggs; Richard A. Levine

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity ...

Peter Lynch

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

224

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE))

Presentation covers an update on power purchase agreements and is given at the Spring 2011 Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) meeting.

225

Electricity Monthly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

CorrectionUpdate November 28, 2012 Map of Electric System Selected for Daily Peak Demand was replaced with the correct map showing Selected Wholesale Electricity and Natural Gas...

226

US Biofuels Quality Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... US Biofuels Quality Update Teresa L. Alleman ... 4 Biodiesel Station Locations Biodiesel is an advanced biofuel under RFS and is sold everywhere ...

2013-08-28T23:59:59.000Z

227

update: Decomposing beta diversity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

on Island Biological Diversity is to influence the policy-update Decomposing beta diversity Baselga (2009) proposes apatterns of beta diversity into effects of nestedness and

Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Release: Thursday, August 26, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, August 18, 2010) Natural...

229

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Release: Thursday, November 4, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, October 27, 2010) As the...

230

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

7, 2009 Next Release: May 14, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 6, 2009) Natural gas...

231

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Next Release: Thursday, May 13, 2010 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, May 5, 2010) Since...

232

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 percent warmer than normal. Other Market Trends: EIA Releases An Updated Mexico Country Analysis Brief: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on January 3, 2007, published...

233

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2009 Next Release: January 23, 2009 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Natural Gas Transportation Update Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 14, 2009) In the...

234

Smart grid update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

... 100 Bureau Drive, M/S 8100 Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8100. *. Bookmark and Share. Smart Grid Update. 2013. June; October.

2013-11-05T23:59:59.000Z

235

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Light truck forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Liepins, G.E.

1979-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the performance of a reference forecast. It is shown that the choice of reference (e.g., random or persistence) can affect the perceived performance of the forecast system. Two scores, ...

Marion P. Mittermaier

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in nearreal time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numericalstatistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value ...

Paul J. Roebber; Lance F. Bosart

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Quantification of Uncertainity in Fire-Weather Forecasts: Some Results of Operational and Experimental Forecasting Programs  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Fire-weather forecasts (FWFs) prepared by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters on an operational basis are traditionally expressed in categorical terms. However, to make rational and optimal use of such forecasts, fire managers need ...

Barbara G. Brown; Allan H. Murphy

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Ability to Forecast Regional Soil Moisture with a Distributed Hydrological Model Using ECMWF Rainfall Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study mimics an online forecast system to provide nine day-ahead forecasts of regional soil moisture. It uses modified ensemble rainfall forecasts from the numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ...

J. M. Schuurmans; M. F. P. Bierkens

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Spatial Structure, Forecast Errors, and Predictability of the South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The spatial structure of the boreal summer South Asian monsoon in the ensemble mean of monthly retrospective forecasts by the Climate Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is examined. The forecast errors and ...

Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav; V. Krishnamurthy

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Differences of opinion exist among forecastersand between forecasters and usersregarding the meaning of the phrase good (bad) weather forecasts. These differences of opinion are fueled by a lack of clarity and/or understanding concerning the ...

Allan H. Murphy

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

win0203SelUpdates0203.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Updated Feb 2003) Updated Feb 2003) 1 Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 Selected Table and Figure Updates Based on the February 2003 Short-Term Energy Outlook Figure WF1. U.S. Winter Natural Gas Demand (Year-to-Year Percent Change) -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Residential Commercial Indust. (incl. CHP) Total Projections Table WF1. Illustrative Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Actual Actual Actual Base Forecast Natural Gas (Midwest) Consumption (mcf) 81.7 99.1 81.3 90.6 Avg. Price ($/mcf) 6.69 9.55 7.33 8.41 Expenditures ($) 546 946 596 762 Heating Oil (Northeast) Consumption (gals) 644 731 584 733 Avg. Price ($/gal) 1.16 1.37 1.10 1.33 Expenditures ($)

246

Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Updated Capital Cost Estimates Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants April 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants ii This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.

247

Spatial orientation and navigation in microgravity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter summarizes the spatial disorientation problems and navigation difficulties described by astronauts and cosmonauts, and relates them to research findings on orientation and navigation in humans and animals. ...

Oman, Charles M.

2007-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

248

Base Resource Forecasts - Power Marketing - Sierra Nevada Region...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Marketing > Base Resource Forecasts Base Resource Forecasts Note: Annual, rolling (monthly for 12 months), base resource forecasts are posted when they become available. Annual...

249

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute of89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with ?

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

250

Overestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a TDM Policy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

M. , Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy.change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting asOverestimation Reduction in Forecasting Telecommuting as a

Tal, Gil

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Forecasting US CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Data  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

F. Hendry (eds), Economic Forecasting, Blackwell Publishing,W. : 2002, Macroeconomic forecasting using di?usion indexes,2003, Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area: Country

Steinhauser, Ralf; Auffhammer, Maximilian

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

NoVaS Transformations: Flexible Inference for Volatility Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and Correlation Forecasting in G. Elliott, C.W.J.Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Amsterdam: North-Holland,Transformations, forthcoming in Forecasting in the Presence

Politis, Dimitris N; Thomakos, Dimitrios D

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

7511, Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Project, Institute ofchoice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel89 (1999) 109129 Forecasting new product penetration with

Brownstone, David; Train, Kenneth

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J.2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J.F.F. (2006), The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability

Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

P, Fitzgerald G: Regression forecasting of patient admissionapproach to modeling and forecasting demand in the emergencySJ, Haug PJ, Snow GL: Forecasting daily patient volumes in

Koestler, Devin C; Ombao, Hernando; Bender, Jesse

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Forecasting Danerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

costs could alter forecasting skill and the predictors thatForecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofOn-Line Working Paper Series Forecasting Dangerous Inmate

Berk, Richard A.; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, John-Ho

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domesticcomplicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking thethe local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible

Richard A. Berk; Susan B. Sorenson; Yan He

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Goulias Page 84 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:Goulias Page 80 Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation:L. Demographic Forecasting with a Dynamic Stochastic

Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Goulias, Konstadinos G.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

260

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

On communication protocols for tactical navigation assistance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using tactical navigation systems is popular for military as well as search and rescue applications. For such applications, the significance of the tactical navigation systems arises especially when groups with the same goal move together on the terrain. ... Keywords: C-TRAMAF, Gossip-based ad hoc routing, N-Gossip, communication protocols, cross layer, digital battlefield, tactical navigation

Evren Onem; H. Birkan Yilmaz; Fatih Alagz; Tuna Tugcu

2008-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

APS Technical Update - No. 30  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

1995 (updated May 18, 2011) APS TECHNICAL UPDATE - 30 Policy for Radiological Surveys on Tools, Materials & Equipment to be Released from Controlled Areas to Uncontrolled Areas at...

263

WINDOW 5 Glass Library Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

WINDOW 6 or 7 Glass Library Update WINDOW 6 or 7 Glass Library Update Last update:12/09/13 07:26 PM Automatic IGDB Update Feature in WINDOW 6 and 7 The latest versions of WINDOW 6 and 7 have an automatic IGDB database update function in the Glass Library. When you first open the program, it checks to see if there is an IGDB version later than what you already have installed, and will notify you if there is an update. Then you can download and install the IGDB database, and click on the Update IGDB button in the Glass Library in order to start the automatic update. For older versions of WINDOW 6 and 7 without the automatic IGDB update function bullet How to Check the Current WINDOW5 IGDB Version bullet Updating the Glass Library bullet Problem Updating the Glass Library bullet Discontinued Records or Reused NFRC IDs

264

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

265

GRR/Elements/14-CA-c.11 - Updated Draft Project Approval Letter | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

1 - Updated Draft Project Approval Letter 1 - Updated Draft Project Approval Letter < GRR‎ | Elements Jump to: navigation, search GRR-logo.png GEOTHERMAL REGULATORY ROADMAP Roadmap Home Roadmap Help List of Sections 14-CA-c.11 - Updated Draft Project Approval Letter The DOGGR State Board prepares an Updated Draft Project Approval Letter, reflecting the the public comments and Regional Board' proposed revisions. Logic Chain No Parents \V/ GRR/Elements/14-CA-c.11 - Updated Draft Project Approval Letter (this page) \V/ No Dependents Under Development Add.png Add an Element Retrieved from "http://en.openei.org/w/index.php?title=GRR/Elements/14-CA-c.11_-_Updated_Draft_Project_Approval_Letter&oldid=539626" Categories: Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap Elements Under Development What links here Related changes

266

The Market Price of Risk: Implications for Electricity Price Forecasting, Asset Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forward Price Forecasting for Power Market Valuation (TR-111860, 1998) presented the basic theory on the market price of risk. However, continued development of the power market has led to additional complexities when applying the concept to electric power. This current report updates that earlier report based on subsequent development of the theory by EPRI and others and reflects two additional years of market data.

2000-12-07T23:59:59.000Z

267

Taiwanese 3G mobile phone demand forecasting by SVR with hybrid evolutionary algorithms  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Taiwan is one of the countries with higher mobile phone penetration rate in the world, along with the increasing maturity of 3G relevant products, the establishments of base stations, and updating regulations of 3G mobile phones, 3G mobile phones are ... Keywords: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Demand forecasting, General regression neural networks (GRNN), Genetic algorithm-simulated annealing (GA-SA), Support vector regression (SVR), Third generation (3G) mobile phone

Wei-Chiang Hong; Yucheng Dong; Li-Yueh Chen; Chien-Yuan Lai

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Statement from Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman Regarding EIA's Updated  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Regarding EIA's Regarding EIA's Updated Annual Energy Outlook Statement from Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman Regarding EIA's Updated Annual Energy Outlook December 12, 2007 - 4:44pm Addthis WASHINGTON, DC - Earlier today the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration released their Annual Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman made the following statement regarding the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook which forecasts to 2030: "EIA's updated forecast projecting higher oil prices and increased demand reinforces the Department of Energy's commitment to the development of safe, clean, affordable, and diverse sources of energy. The President's initiatives focusing on increased domestic energy production, more energy efficiency, and clean energy technologies will enhance our energy security

269

A Review of Numerical Forecast Guidance for Hurricane Hugo  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerical forecast guidance for Hurricane Hugo from the National Meteorological Center is examined, as well as forecasts from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. No one forecast product ...

John H. Ward

1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five precipitation-type ...

Matthew S. Wandishin; Michael E. Baldwin; Steven L. Mullen; John V. Cortinas Jr.

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery orders using forecasts provided by their customers. Our goal is to improve the supplier's operations through a better un- derstanding of the customers's forecast behavior. Unfortunately, customer forecasts

Murphy, Robert F.

273

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process of making tropical ...

Ronald J. Miller; Ann J. Schrader; Charles R. Sampson; Ted L. Tsui

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Forecaster Workstation Design: Concepts and Issues  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Some basic ideas about designing a meteorological workstation for operational weather forecasting are presented, in part as a complement to the recently published discussion of workstation design by R. R. Hoffman. Scientific weather forecasting ...

Charles A. Doswell III

1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

276

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO forecast plume during the 200211 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Local Forecast Communication In The Altiplano  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts play an important role in planting decisions for Andean peasant producers. Predictions of the upcoming cropping season determine when, where, and what farmers will plant. This research looks at the sources of forecast information used ...

Jere L. Gilles; Corinne Valdivia

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (...

Andreas Rpnack; Andreas Hense; Christoph Gebhardt; Detlev Majewski

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

280

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing

de Lijser, Peter

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

Trepte, Kai

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that has been used in probabilistic weather forecasting to calibrate forecast ensembles and generate predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for weather quantities. ...

Richard M. Chmielecki; Adrian E. Raftery

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Advancements in weather forecast models and their enhanced resolution have led to substantially improved and more realistic-appearing forecasts for some variables. However, traditional verification scores often indicate poor performance because ...

Eric Gilleland; David Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Barbara Casati; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, ...

Emily Wallace; Alberto Arribas

2012-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

285

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A methodology has been formulated to aid a field forecaster in preparing probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for river basins. The format of probabilistic QPF is designed to meet three requirements: (i) it is compatible with ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; William J. Drzal; Theresa Rossi Drake; James C. Weyman; Louis A. Giordano

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

A General Framework for Forecast Verification  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the joint distribution are investigated: 1) the calibration-...

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1987-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Value from Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explores the objective application of ambiguity information, that is, the uncertainty in forecast probability derived from an ensemble. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty ...

Mark S. Allen; F. Anthony Eckel

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Management of supply chain: an alternative modelling technique for forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view

Datta, Shoumen

2007-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

290

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

291

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Meeting April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon Power Purchase Agreement Update April 21, 2011 Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nrel.gov 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Overview * Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Template * PPA Request For Information (RFI) 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Template * DLA Energy has an updated PPA template - Includes Best Value evaluation (rather than Low Price/Technically Acceptable) - Additional updates will be made based on the PPA RFI - Updated template will be posted on FEMP PPA Sample Document web site http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/ppa_sampledocs.html 4 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov

292

Power Purchase Agreements Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon April 20-21 in Portland, Oregon Power Purchase Agreement Update April 21, 2011 Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nrel.gov 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov Overview * Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Template * PPA Request For Information (RFI) 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Template * DLA Energy has an updated PPA template - Includes Best Value evaluation (rather than Low Price/Technically Acceptable) - Additional updates will be made based on the PPA RFI - Updated template will be posted on FEMP PPA Sample Document web site http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/ppa_sampledocs.html 4 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov PPA Request for Information * Background - PPA issues identified based on meetings/telecons

293

Migratory Birds Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Migratory Birds Update Jane Powers Office of Environmental Policy and Assistance, HS-22 SAN Call July 19, 2012 Migratory Bird MOU * Final draft was distributed to U.S. Fish and...

294

Migratory Birds Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Migratory Birds Update Jane Powers Office of Environmental Policy and Assistance, HS-22 SAN Call October 18, 2012 Migratory Bird MOU * Draft distributed to U.S. Fish and Wildlife...

295

Codex Alimentarius Commission update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

AOCS Technical Director Richard Cantrill attended recent meetings of two Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) committees that deal with issues of interest to the fats and oils industry. Topics discussed included work to update the standard on named vegeta

296

Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis  

SciTech Connect

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

Cazalet, E.G.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction....

Satchell, Stephen E; Wright, Stephen M

2006-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

298

An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Journal Article: An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore Details Activities (0) Areas (0) Regions (0) Abstract: Large-scale geological storage of CO2 is likely to bring CO2 plumes into contact with a large number of existing wellbores. Wellbores that no longer provide proper zonal isolation establish a primary pathway for a buoyant CO2-rich phase to escape from the intended storage formation. The hazard of CO2 leakage along these pathways will depend on the rate of leakage. Thus a useful component of a risk assessment framework is a model of CO2 leakage. Predicting the flux of CO2 along a leaking wellbore requires a model of fluid properties and of transport along the leakage

299

Energy Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) Forecast, ForskEL (Smart Grid Project) Jump to: navigation, search Project Name Energy Forecast, ForskEL Country Denmark Coordinates 56.26392°, 9.501785° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":56.26392,"lon":9.501785,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

300

Forecasting Techniques Utilized by the Forecast Branch of the National Meteorological Center During a Major Convective Rainfall Event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meteorologists within the Forecast Branch (FB) of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) produce operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). These manual forecasts are prepared utilizing various forecasting techniques, which are ...

Theodore W. Funk

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

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While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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301

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the U.S. National Weather Service  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast verification in operational hydrology has been very limited to date, mainly due to the complexity of verifying both forcing input forecasts and hydrologic forecasts on multiple spacetime scales. However, forecast verification needs to ...

Julie Demargne; Mary Mullusky; Kevin Werner; Thomas Adams; Scott Lindsey; Noreen Schwein; William Marosi; Edwin Welles

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Navigation computation in the smart cockpit  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This thesis discusses the design and development of a hics. software module responsible for performing various navigation computations in the smart cockpit. The goals of decreased workload and increased situation awareness for the general aviation community are the motivating forces behind this software, the Navigation Module. The smart cockpit environment in which the Navigation Module operates is called the General Aviation Pilot Advisory and Training System (GAPATS) and was developed at Texas A&M University. The architecture of GAPATS is presented briefly followed by the functional requirements and operation of the Navigation Module. Next, an overview of the Navigation Module's software architecture is presented to describe how the object oriented methodology in C++ is used for the data abstraction in the Navigation Module. Other factors affecting the development of the Navigation Module are discussed such as the software development environment including useful tools available to the author. Next, results from pilot evaluations of GAPATS are given, noting where the data relate to the Navigation Module. These results show that the Navigation Module achieves its goal of a reduction in workload with an increase in situation awareness. Finally, recommendations are made that will improve future iterations of the Navigation Module, addressing its areas of weakness such as its database structure and flight planning abilities.

Lee, Kristopher Alex

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Load Forecasting for Modern Distribution Systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a fundamental activity for numerous organizations and activities within a utility, including planning, operations, and control. Transmission and Distribution (T&D) planning and design engineers use the load forecast to determine whether any changes and additions are needed to the electric system to satisfy the anticipated load. Other load forecast users include system operations, financial ...

2013-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

304

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the contributing authors listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad

305

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

306

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped prepare

307

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work listed previously, Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Mehrzad Soltani Nia helped

308

Load forecast and treatment of conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Load forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservation in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast

309

FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs

310

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 report, Staff Forecast: Retail Electricity Prices, 2005 to 2018, was prepared with contributions from the technical assistance provided by Greg Broeking of R.W. Beck, Inc. in preparing retail price forecasts

311

Blue Chip Consensus US GDP Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and metro area from Moodys Economy.com Equivalent to US-level Gross Domestic Product ? The GMP forecasts have a large impact on the peak load forecasts Rule of thumb: 1 % growth in RTO GMP ? approx. 1,000 MW growth in forecast RTO peak load

James F. Wilson

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183­218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

313

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

System Demonstration Multilingual Weather Forecast Generation System Tianfang Yao DongmoZhang Qian (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used

314

(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast ­ Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. ­ Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving

Hamill, Tom

315

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

316

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach can forecast the price of a notebook computer up to four months in advance of its introduction with an average error of under 10% and the rate of price erosion to within 10% of the price for seven months after introduction-the length of the typical life cycle of a notebook. Since all data are publicly available, this approach can be used to assist managerial decision making in the notebook computer industry, for example, in determining when and how to upgrade a model and when to introduce a new model.

Rutherford, Derek Paul

1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

318

A comparative analysis of area navigation systems for general aviation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Within the next decade area navigation is to become the primary method of air navigation within the United States. There are numerous radio navigation systems that offer the capabilities of area navigation to general ...

Dodge, Steven Malcolm

1973-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

320

Federal Geothermal Research Program Update - Fiscal Year 2004 | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Geothermal Research Program Update - Fiscal Year 2004 Geothermal Research Program Update - Fiscal Year 2004 Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Report: Federal Geothermal Research Program Update - Fiscal Year 2004 Details Activities (91) Areas (26) Regions (0) Abstract: The Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessors have conducted research and development (R&D) in geothermal energy since 1971. The Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP) works in partnership with industry to establish geothermal energy as an economically competitive contributor to the U.S. energy supply. Geothermal energy production, a $1.5 billion a year industry, generates electricity or provides heat for direct use applications. The technologies developed by the Geothermal Technologies Program will provide the Nation with new sources of electricity that are

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Vehicle Efficiency Incentives: An Update on Feebates for States | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Vehicle Efficiency Incentives: An Update on Feebates for States Vehicle Efficiency Incentives: An Update on Feebates for States Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Vehicle Efficiency Incentives: An Update on Feebates for States Agency/Company /Organization: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Focus Area: Standards - Incentives - Policies - Regulations Topics: Best Practices Website: www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/t051.pd This report is an account of vehicle feebates as a tool to reduce emissions and fuel use at the state level in the U.S. It discusses past and current efforts to implement feebates; structural and policy issues in feebate design; and analyses of feebate effectiveness. The report concludes with recommendations for state feebate program design.

322

Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Archive of the Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 Izmir, Turkey Oils and Fats World Market Update 2011 ...

323

Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Archive of AOCS Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 Kiev, Ukraine Oils and Fats World Market Update 2013 ...

324

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II uses the method of structural factor analysis to study the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. I propose two structural factor models. One is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive (SFAVAR) model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive (SFVAR) model. Compared to the traditional vector autogression (VAR) model, both models incorporate far more information from hundreds of data series, series that can be and are monitored by the Central Bank. Moreover, the factors used are structurally meaningful, a feature that adds to the understanding of the â??black boxâ? of the monetary transmission mechanism. Both models generate qualitatively reasonable impulse response functions. Using the SFVAR model, both the â??price puzzleâ? and the â??liquidity puzzleâ? are eliminated. Chapter III employs the method of structural factor analysis to conduct a forecasting exercise in a data rich environment. I simulate out-of-sample real time forecasting using a structural dynamic factor forecasting model and its variations. I use several structural factors to summarize the information from a large set of candidate explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)â??s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor forecasting models compared to alternatives that include univariate autoregression (AR) model, the VAR model and Stock and Watsonâ??s (2002) models, especially when forecasting real variables. In chapter IV, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.

Liu, Dandan

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Print Friday, 01 March 2013 15:43 Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement

326

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

327

Control and Navigation Framework for Quadrotor Helicopters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents the development of a nonlinear quadrotor simulation framework together with a nonlinear controller. The quadrotor stabilization and navigation problems are tackled using a nested loops control architecture. A nonlinear Backstepping ... Keywords: Backstepping, Gazebo, Navigation, Nonlinear control, Open dynamics engine, Quadrotor, Simulation framework

Amr Nagaty; Sajad Saeedi; Carl Thibault; Mae Seto; Howard Li

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Website Complexity Metrics for Measuring Navigability  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In recent years, navigability has become the pivot of website designs. Existing works fall into two categories. The first is to evaluate and assess a website's navigability against a set of criteria or check list. The second is to analyse usage data ...

Yanlong Zhang; Hong Zhu; Sue Greenwood

2004-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Help:Navigation | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Navigation Navigation Jump to: navigation, search When viewing any page on a MediaWiki wiki, you'll find three main navigation elements: The sidebar on the left gives you access to important pages in the wiki such as Recent changes or Upload file. At the top of the page are links (often called tabs) which relate to the page currently displayed: its associated discussion page, the version history, and-most notably-the edit link. In the top right corner you'll find user links; as an anonymous user, you'll see a link to create an account or log in (they are the same page). As a logged-in user you have a collection of personal links, including ones to your user page and preferences. Contents 1 Sidebar 1.1 Navigation 1.2 Toolbox 2 Page Tabs 3 User Links Sidebar File:M-en-sidebar.png

330

Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document represents the progress report and Task 1 letter report of the California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE) contract funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC), Critical Operating Constraint Forecasting (COCF) for California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Planning Phase. Task 1 was to accomplish the following items: Collect data from CAISO to set up the WECC power flow base case representing the CAISO system in the summer of 2006 Run TRACE for maximizing California Impo...

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

331

OCRWM Program Update -- Lanthrum  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Update Update Presented to: Transportation External Coordination Working Group Presented by: Gary Lanthrum Director, Office of Logistics Management February 6, 2008 San Antonio, TX 2 Introduction * Program key milestones * Status of License Application * FY 2008 Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Program budget * Status of transportation projects 3 Program Key Milestones Design for License Application Complete November 2007 License Application Submittal Start Nevada Rail Construction YM Construction Authorization Operating License Submittal Rail Line Operational Begin Receipt Completed Supplemental EIS LSN Certification October 2007 4 Licensing Support Network (LSN) * LSN is a web-based information system established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that provides public

332

Forecasting Techniques The Use of Hourly Model-Generated Soundings to Forecast Mesoscale Phenomena. Part I: Initial Assessment in Forecasting Warm-Season Phenomena  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since late 1995, NCEP has made available to forecasters hourly model guidance at selected sites in the form of vertical profiles of various forecast fields. These profiles provide forecasters with increased temporal resolution and greater ...

Robert E. Hart; Gregory S. Forbes; Richard H. Grumm

1998-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Meese-Rogoff redux: Micro-based exchange-rate forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Johnatban. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We'veBased Exchange-Rate Forecasting By MARTIN D . D . EVANS ANDon longer-horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over

Evans, MDD; Lyons, Richard K.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

The Past as Prologue? Business Cycles and Forecasting since the 1960s  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasters, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 28, No. 2, Mar,of Macroeconomic Forecasting Journal of Macroeconomics,of Federal Reserve Forecasting, Journal of Macroeconomics,

Bardhan, Ashok Deo; Hicks, Daniel; Kroll, Cynthia A.; Yu, Tiffany

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

and V. Letschert (2005). Forecasting Electricity Demand in8364 Material World: Forecasting Household ApplianceMcNeil, 2008). Forecasting Diffusion Forecasting Variables

Letschert, Virginie

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

C:\MYDOCS\COALRES\1997update\FRONT-1.wpd  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7) 7) Distribution Category UC-950 U.S. Coal Reserves: 1997 Update February 1999 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ U.S. Coal Reserves:1997 Update ii Internet Access The databases in this report can be accessed and downloaded via the EIA home page:  http://www.eia.doe.gov.

337

U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5) 5) Distribution Category UC-950 U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update August 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ U.S. Coal Reserves: A Review and Update ii Internet Access The information and databases in this report can be accessed and downloaded via the EIA home page:

338

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Updated Buildings Sector Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency August 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Buildings Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. June 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Buildings Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency 1

339

SO3 Mitigation Guide Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is an updated guide for control of gas phase sulfuric acid emissions. The guide updates overviews of available control processes and covers new processes. In addition, the guide summarizes process economics and includes a cost worksheet calculation methodology.

2004-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

340

ACT Update | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

ACT Update ACT Update ACT September 2011.pdf More Documents & Publications C-340 Complex D&D Final Lessons Learned (Post CD-4), Environmental Management Cleanup, Sep 2011 Plain...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Darshan Updated data repository documentation  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Updated data repository documentation June 18th, 2013 The documentation for the public ALCF IO Data Repository has been updated. Please note that there is a new technical report...

342

Sandy Updates | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Energy.gov Sandy Updates Sandy Updates June 6, 2013 President Barack Obama listens to then-Acting Energy Secretary Daniel B. Poneman during a meeting with electric utility CEOs...

343

GUA Update, December 2008 Issue  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GUA Update is published quarterly. The following articles are featured in this issue of Gasification Users Association (GUA) Update: President Obama's Energy and Climate Agenda Outgoing Administration Energy Program Updates China's Coal Gasification Industry Continues to Expand U.S. IGCC Project Updates International IGCC and Gasification Projects IGCC and Gasification Technology News Items U.S. Coal to SNG Project Announcements 2008 Coal to Liquids (CTL) New content is in bold. Previous content fr...

2009-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

344

Mathematical and computer modelling reports: Modeling and forecasting energy markets with the intermediate future forecasting system  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper describes the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS), which is the model used to forecast integrated energy markets by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The model contains representations of supply and demand for all of the ...

Frederic H. Murphy; John J. Conti; Susan H. Shaw; Reginald Sanders

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using one- to seven-day ensemble forecasts of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

346

Using National Air Quality Forecast Guidance to Develop Local Air Quality Index Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) currently provides next-day forecasts of ozone concentrations over the contiguous United States. It was developed collaboratively by NOAA and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in order to ...

Brian Eder; Daiwen Kang; S. Trivikrama Rao; Rohit Mathur; Shaocai Yu; Tanya Otte; Ken Schere; Richard Wayland; Scott Jackson; Paula Davidson; Jeff McQueen; George Bridgers

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study, operational streamflow forecasts are ...

A. Sankarasubramanian; Upmanu Lall; Susan Espinueva

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEPs coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in nearreal time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system obtained ...

David J. Stensrud; Nusrat Yussouf

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of MissouriColumbia's local ...

Patrick S. Market

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

An Operational Model for Forecasting Probability of Precipitation and Yes/No Forecast  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An operational system for forecasting probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecast over 10 stations during monsoon season is developed. A perfect prog method (PPM) approach is followed for statistical interpretation of numerical weather ...

Ashok Kumar; Parvinder Maini; S. V. Singh

1999-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2000 NEW JERSEY of growth will decelerate over the forecast period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey in 2000 looks to decelerate over the course of the forecast. These forces will combine to push the unemployment rate to more

359

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling A NOAA of the NWS's forecast products, even its regional forecast products, are constrained by the limitations of NOAA's global forecast model. Unfortunately, our global forecasts are less accurate than those from

Hamill, Tom

360

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability? M. Hashem Pesaran University of Cambridge, CIMF, and USC Andreas Pick University of Cambridge, CIMF March 11, 2008 Abstract This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used... but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single...

Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

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361

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

362

Solar future: 1978. [Market forecast to 1992  

SciTech Connect

The growth in sales of solar heating equipment is discussed. Some forecasts are made for the continued market growth of collectors, pool systems, and photovoltaics. (MOW)

Butt, S.H.

1978-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Energy conservation and official UK energy forecasts  

SciTech Connect

Behind the latest United Kingdom (UK) official forecasts of energy demand are implicit assumptions about future energy-price elasticities. Mr. Pearce examines the basis of the forecasts and finds that the long-term energy-price elasticities that they imply are two or three times too low. The official forecasts substantially understate the responsiveness of demand to energy price rises. If more-realistic price elasticities were assumed, the official forecasts would imply a zero primary energy-demand growth to 2000. This raises the interesting possibility of a low energy future being brought about entirely by market forces. 15 references, 3 tables.

Pearce, D.

1980-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

365

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and ...  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series Prediction Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past Santa Fe Institute Proceedings on the Studies in the Sciences of ...

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

Koottatep, Pakawkul

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

367

Rolling 12 Month Forecast November-2008.xls  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Month Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry) First Preference CVP Generation Project Use November 2008 October 2009 November 2008 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource...

368

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Abstract--In deregulated electricity markets, short-term load forecasting is important for reliable power322 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010 Short-Term Load Forecasting presents a similar day-based wavelet neural network method to forecast tomorrow's load. The idea

Tesfatsion, Leigh

369

Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets MISO NYISO PJM ERCOT CAISO Peak load 109,157 MW (7 ........................................................................................... 18 4 WIND POWER FORECASTING AND ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATIONS............................................................ 18 4-1 Market Operation and Wind Power Forecasting in Five U.S. Electricity Markets .......... 21 #12

Kemner, Ken

370

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

371

Category:Navigation Templates | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

source source History View New Pages Recent Changes All Special Pages Semantic Search/Querying Get Involved Help Apps Datasets Community Login | Sign Up Search Category Edit History Facebook icon Twitter icon » Category:Navigation Templates Jump to: navigation, search This is a list of templates that are used for navigation on sub-sites on OpenEI. Pages in category "Navigation Templates" The following 18 pages are in this category, out of 18 total. A Template:ArizonaWindContactInfo C Template:CommunityWindHandbook D Template:DatabusNav Template:DatabusNav2 E Template:EnergyAccessNav Template:EnergyDataJamNav E cont. Template:EnergyWater H Template:HydrogenNav L Template:LEDSGPFooter Template:LEDSGPNavs Template:LEDSLACNavs Template:LEDSTAPnav S Template:Smallwindguidebook Template:SWERANav

372

Modeling information navigation: implications for information architecture  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Previous studies for menu and Web search tasks have suggested differing advice on the optimal number of selections per page. In this article, we examine this discrepancy through the use of a computational model of information navigation that simulates ...

Craig S. Miller; Roger W. Remington

2004-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Contributions to automated realtime underwater navigation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This dissertation presents three separate-but related-contributions to the art of underwater navigation. These methods may be used in postprocessing with a human in the loop, but the overarching goal is to enhance vehicle ...

Stanway, Michael Jordan

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Program Updates | Department of Energy  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

News » Program Updates News » Program Updates Program Updates January 7, 2014 Program Update: 4th Quarter 2013 Inside this Update: Agencies Assist LM to Develop Reports on Defense-Related Uranium Mines; DOE Responds to Public Input on the Draft ULP PEIS; Groundwater Remedy Is Evaluated at the Mound, Ohio, Site; Visitors Learn About the History of LM's Unique Facility in Puerto Rico; German Remediation Offi cials Benchmarking Visit; International Atomic Energy Agency Accepts Consultation from LM; Environmental Justice Activities; and more. October 21, 2013 Program Update: 3rd Quarter 2013 Inside this Update: Legacy Management Work Progresses on Defense-Related Uranium Mines Report to Congress; Weaving Community and Science; LM Completes Construction of Well Pad at CNTA; DOE Salute - Grand Junction,

375

Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/SNOWBANDS Field Experiments  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Despite improvements in numerical weather prediction models, statistical models, forecast decision trees, and forecasting rules of thumb, human interpretation of meteorological information for a particular forecast situation can still yield a ...

Peter J. Sousounis; Greg E. Mann; George S. Young; Richard B. Wagenmaker; Bradley D. Hoggatt; William J. Badini

1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Experiments in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasting for Illinois  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Six years of daily temperature and precipitation forecasting are studied for Urbana, Illinois. Minimum temperature forecast skills, measured against a climatological control, are 57%, 48%, 34% and 20% for the respective forecast ranges of one, ...

John R. Gyakum

1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the entire forecast period, primarily because both weather-adjusted peak and electricity consumption were forecast. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather normalization, annual peak demand, natural gas demand, self-generation, conservation, California Solar Initiative. #12

378

The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration that is applied to ...

Yuejian Zhu; Zoltan Toth; Richard Wobus; David Richardson; Kenneth Mylne

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

A Probabilistic Forecast Approach for Daily Precipitation Totals  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Commonly, postprocessing techniques are employed to calibrate a model forecast. Here, a probabilistic postprocessor is presented that provides calibrated probability and quantile forecasts of precipitation on the local scale. The forecasts are ...

Petra Friederichs; Andreas Hense

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multi-year verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum temperature forecasts from ...

David R. Novak; Christopher Bailey; Keith Brill; Patrick Burke; Wallace Hogsett; Robert Rausch; Michael Schichtel

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-...

Stanley A. Changnon; Joyce M. Changnon; David Changnon

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Forecasting and Verifying in a Field Research Project: DOPLIGHT '87  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Verification of forecasts during research field experiments is discussed and exemplified using the DOPLIGHT '87 experiment. We stress the importance of forecast verification if forecasting is to be a serious component of the research. A direct ...

Charles A. Doswell III; John A. Flueck

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

383

Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ...

Ramn de Ela; Ren Laprise

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a ...

Sim D. Aberson

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

On the Reliability and Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An important aspect of ensemble forecasting is that the resulting probabilities are reliable (i.e., the forecast probabilities match the observed frequencies). In the medium-range forecasting context, the literature tends to focus on the ...

Christine Johnson; Neill Bowler

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Brcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast error of a consensus model (CONU) routinely used by the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center can be predicted is determined. A number of predictors of consensus forecast error, ...

James S. Goerss

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

An Experiment in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting in the Michigan Area  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During an experiment in mesoscale weather forecasting in the Michigan area, consensus improved over NWS guidance in maximum/minimum temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts out to 24 hours. Forecasts were generally best in the ...

Dennis G. Baker

1986-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Electricity Monthly Update - Energy Information Administration  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Analysis & Projections. Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & ...

390

Where should i turn: moving from individual to collaborative navigation strategies to inform the interaction design of future navigation systems  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The design of in-vehicle navigation systems fails to take into account the social nature of driving and automobile navigation. In this paper, we consider navigation as a social activity among drivers and navigators to improve design of such systems. ... Keywords: gps systems, in-car navigation, interaction design

Jodi Forlizzi; William C. Barley; Thomas Seder

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Print Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

392

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2010  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

10 Accelerator Update Archive 10 Accelerator Update Archive December 20, 2010 - December 22, 2010 - Three stores provided !32 hours of luminosity - Problems with two Linac quadrupole power supplies - Cryo system technicians work on TEV sector D1 wet engine - TEV quench during checkout - JASMIN's run at MTest ends December 17, 2010 - December 20, 2010 The Integrated Luminosity for the period from 12/13/10 to 12/20/10 was 66.31 inverse picobarns. NuMI reported receiving 7.62E18 protons on target during this same period. - Five Stores provided ~62 hours of luminosity - Operations had trouble with a Linac RF station (LRF3) - Operators tuned the Linac backup source (I- Source) December 15, 2010 - December 17, 2010 - Three stores provided ~36.1 hours of luminosity - MI-52 Septa repaired - NuMI recovered its target LCW system

393

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

394

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

395

Shutdown 2013 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Shutdown 2013 Update Print Shutdown 2013 Update Print Sextupole upgrade The ALS is replacing all of the corrector magnets with sextupoles (48 of them) to allow for tighter horizontal control of the beam, thereby increasing beam brightness. This so-called "lattice upgrade" will also increase beam brightness by concentrating the horizontal emittance. (Top) ALS Project and Facility Management Group Leader Steve Rossi proudly shows off a newly-installed sextupole magnet. (Center) Christoph Steier and Arnaud Madur discuss challenges encountered during the installation. (Bottom) A corrector magnet that has been removed from the ring. Some sextupole magnets awaiting installation in the Building 15 staging area. Cold head replacement The cooling elements in the three superbend magnets (and one spare) need to

396

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

397

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

398

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

399

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2009  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

9 Accelerator Update Archive 9 Accelerator Update Archive December 18, 2009 - December 21, 2009 The integrated luminosity for the period from 12/14/09 to 12/21/09 was 51.27 inverse picobarns. NuMI reported receiving 6.38E18 protons on target during this same period. - Four stores provided ~62.25 hours of luminosity - Store 7444 had an AIL of 306E30 - BRF19 cavity suffered a vacuum failure and was removed - The Booster West Anode Power Supply suffered some problems December 16, 2009 - December 18, 2009 - Three stores provided ~45 hours of luminosity - PBar kicker problem - MI RF problems December 14, 2009 - December 16, 2009 - Four stores provided ~42 hours of luminosity - Recycler kicker repaired - Booster East Anode Power Supply trips due to BRF1, 2, & 8 December 11, 2009 - December 14, 2009

400

Electric Utility Industry Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Electric Utility Industry Update Electric Utility Industry Update Steve Kiesner Director, National Customer Markets Edison Electric Institute FUPWG Spring 2012 April 12, 2012 Edison Electric Institute  Investor-Owned Electric Companies  Membership includes  200 US companies,  More than 65 international affiliates and  170 associates  US members  Serve more than 95% of the ultimate customers in the investor-owned segment of the industry and  Nearly 70% of all electric utility ultimate customers, and  Our mission focuses on advocating public policy; expanding market opportunities; and providing strategic business information Agenda Significant Industry Trends Utility Infrastructure Investments Generation and Fuel Landscape

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

402

Community Relations Plan Update  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

8-TAR 8-TAR MAC-MRAP 1.9.1 Monticello Mill Tailings Superfund Site and Monticello Vicinity Properties Superfund Site Monticello, Utah Community Relations Plan Update FY 2001 Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Albuquerque Operations Office Grand Junction Office Prepared by MACTEC Environmental Restoration Services, LLC Grand Junction, Colorado Work performed under DOE Contract No. DE-AC13-96GJ87335 for the U.S. Department of Energy For more information or to request additional copies of this document, please call (800) 269-7145 (Utah only) or Monticello Repository Office Complex (435) 587-4000 DOE Grand Junction Office Community Relations Plan Update FY 2001 Page v Table of Contents Terms and Abbreviations........................................................................................................... vii

403

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

404

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

405

Accelerator Update | Archive | 2012  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

2 Accelerator Update Archive 2 Accelerator Update Archive April 27, 2012 - April 30, 2012 NuMI reported receiving 7.67E18 protons on target for the period from 4/23/12 to 4/30/12. The Booster developed an aperture restriction that required lower beam intensity Main Injector personnel completed their last study The shutdown begins Linac, MTA, and Booster will continue using beam for one or two more weeks Linac will supply the Neutron Therapy Facility beam for most of the shutdown April 25, 2012 - April 27, 2012 Booster beam stop problem repaired Beam to all experiments will shut off at midnight on Monday morning, 4/30/12. Main Injector will continue to take beam until 6 AM on Monday morning. Linac, the Neutron Therapy Facility, MTA, and Booster will continue using beam for one or two more weeks. The Fermi Accelerator Complex will be in shutdown for approximately one year

406

SPEAR3 Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Beam Line Update Beam Line Update Index of Topics: Third Generation Light Souce First SPEAR3 Light Seen in Early March Beam Line Availability Access to SSRL Beam Lines Third Generation Light Source SSRL entered a new era of synchrotron radiation experimentation with the completion of the SPEAR3 upgrade project in the Fall of 2003 (find more SPEAR3 news at http://www-ssrl.slac.stanford.edu/spear3/index.html). The SPEAR3 storage ring now produces beams having one to two orders of magnitude higher brightness and flux density than the old SPEAR2 ring, will accommodate new high performance insertion devices and beam lines, and will be capable of injections without ramping by virtue of its improved at-energy injection system. Brightness for new undulators will exceed 1018 at 5 keV.

407

Electricity Monthly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Methodology and Documentation Methodology and Documentation General The Electricity Monthly Update is prepared by the Electric Power Operations Team, Office of Electricity, Renewables and Uranium Statistics, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Data published in the Electricity Monthly Update are compiled from the following sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-826,"Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenues with State Distributions Report," U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report," fuel spot prices from Bloomberg Energy, electric power prices from SNL Energy, electric system demand data from Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite, and weather data and imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

408

PPA Tools and Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

PPA Tools & Update Chandra Shah chandra.shah@nel.gov October 21, 2010 2 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov * PPA (15 minutes) - Resources - Discussion * URESC (15 minutes) - URESC description - Issues description - Discussion Presentation/Discussion Overview 3 | FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM femp.energy.gov * PPA Web Site: http://www.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/power_purchase_agreements.html - PPA Quick Guide http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/ppa_guide.pdf - PPA Presentation (updated on periodic basis) - Sample Documents * Alternative Financing Options webinar recording http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/femp/training/course_detail_ondemand.cfm/CourseId=44 * FEMP Focus article (Fall 2007, p. 16-17) http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/news/fempfocus.html

409

forecasts  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 Figure 106. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2040 (2011 dollars per million Btu) Appalachia Interior West US Average

410

Transportation Security Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) final rules issued in 2003 required persons who offer for transportation or transport certain hazardous materials to develop and implement security plans. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) formed a Transportation Security Implementation Working Group, which included representation from the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), to identify key projects, which were documented in the original report in 2005. This report updates information in the original rep...

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

411

SNCR Guidelines Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

As regulations on nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from fossil-fueled power plants become stricter, post-combustion techniques such as selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) become viable options for achieving compliance. In the SNCR process, urea or ammonia injected into the combustion products reacts selectively with NOx to form nitrogen and water. The purpose of this document is to update information concerning the application of SNCR to coal-fired electric utility boilers. In the ten plus years since...

2004-12-07T23:59:59.000Z

412

Updated Operations Assessment Guideline  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Operations Assessment Guideline (OAG) can be used to assess the organization and processes of operations departments. An internal utility team or third party can use this report to guide a team composed of industry experts and members of the assessed utility. This report is an update to EPRI report 1008520, Operations Assessment Guideline, published in March 2005. This improved version includes insights gained after three years of experience with the original report.

2008-03-25T23:59:59.000Z

413

Update on Revenue Meters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This technical update provides utilities with an overview of recent activities within AEIC and their subcommittees and working groups. Contained within this document is background information on the overall AEIC organization with expanded detail on the AEIC Meter & Service Committee. Additionally, their role as an integral part and catalyst with EEIs Metering Committee is demonstrated. Summaries of recent minutes and supporting documentation on specific proposals that include revisions to ...

2013-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

414

CAES Updated Cost Assessment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Compressed Air Energy Storage Systems (CAES) for bulk energy storage applications have been receiving renewed interest. Increased penetration of large quantities of intermittent wind generation are requiring utilities to re-examine the cost and value of CAES systems. New second generation CAES cycles have been identified which offer the potential for lower capital and operating costs. This project was undertaken to update and summarize the capital and operating costs and performance features of second ge...

2008-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

415

Atmospheric Mercury Research Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report is a summary and analysis of research findings on utility and environmental mercury from 1997 to 2003. The update categorizes and describes recent work on mercury in utility-burned coal and its route through power plants, the measures for its control, and its fate in the environment following emissions from utility stacks. This fate includes atmospheric chemistry and transport, deposition to land and water surfaces, aquatic cycling, the dynamics of mercury in freshwater fish food webs, and th...

2004-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

416

Chiller Selection: CFC Update  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This CFC Update examines the decision factors used in selecting the most cost-effective chiller. The growing concern with emissions contributing to ozone depletion, global warming, and air pollution must be considered. Recent chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) phaseout schedules are causing some building owners to consider gas-fired chillers in place of electric chillers. The gas-fired chillers provide cooling without using ozone-depleting refrigerants, and also reduce electric d...

1997-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

417

Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.

2001-12-05T23:59:59.000Z

418

General aviation Omega navigation in the national airspace system  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Introduction: Omega navigation has great potential as a navigation sensor for general aviation aircraft. Advantages of Omega navigation include signal availability at all altitudes, and no need for overflying of various ...

Wischmeyer, Carl Edward

1976-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Blasting Vibration Forecast Base on Neural Network  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The influence of blasting vibration to surroundings around the blasting area can not be ignored, in order to guarantee the safety of surroundings around blasting area, blasting vibration forecasting model based on neural network is established by improved ... Keywords: Blasting vibration, Neural network, Forecast

Haiwang Ye; Fang Liu; Jian Chang; Lin Feng; Yang Wang; Peng Yao; Kai Wu

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Demand forecasting after natural disasters is especially important in emergency management. However, since the time series of commodities demand after natural disasters usually has a great deal of nonlinearity and irregularity, it has poor prediction ... Keywords: ARIMA, Demand forecasting, EMD, Emergency management, Natural disaster

Xiaoyan Xu; Yuqing Qi; Zhongsheng Hua

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Time series forecasting with Qubit Neural Networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper proposes a quantum learning scheme approach for time series forecasting, through the application of the new non-standard Qubit Neural Network (QNN) model. The QNN description was adapted in this work in order to resemble classical Artificial ... Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, quantum computing, qubit neural networks, time series forecasting

Carlos R. B. Azevedo; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

423

Making Forecasts and Weather Normalization Work Together  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Electric utility industry restructuring has changed the consistency between weather-normalized sales and energy forecasts. This Technology Review discusses the feasibility of integrating weather normalization and forecasting processes, and addresses whether the conflicting goal of obtaining greater consistency and accuracy with fewer staff resources can be met with more integrated approaches.

2000-09-11T23:59:59.000Z

424

A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper presents a distributed model that is in operational use for forecasting flash floods in northern Austria. The main challenge in developing the model was parameter identification which was addressed by a modelling strategy that involved a model ... Keywords: Distributed modelling, Dominant processes concept, Floods, Forecasting, Kalman Filter, Model accuracy, Parameter identification, Stream routing

Gnter Blschl; Christian Reszler; Jrgen Komma

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled Reanalysis ...

Suranjana Saha; Shrinivas Moorthi; Xingren Wu; Jiande Wang; Sudhir Nadiga; Patrick Tripp; David Behringer; Yu-Tai Hou; Hui-ya Chuang; Mark Iredell; Michael Ek; Jesse Meng; Rongqian Yang; Malaquas Pea Mendez; Huug van den Dool; Qin Zhang; Wanqiu Wang; Mingyue Chen; Emily Becker

426

Forecast of geothermal-drilling activity  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The number of geothermal wells that will be drilled to support electric power production in the United States through 2000 A.D. are forecasted. Results of the forecast are presented by 5-year periods for the five most significant geothermal resources.

Mansure, A.J.; Brown, G.L.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

Preemptive Forecasts Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) estimates the error statistics of a model forecast using an ensemble of model forecasts. One use of an EnKF is data assimilation, resulting in the creation of an increment to the first-guess field at the ...

Brian J. Etherton

2007-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

428

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper studies a manufacturer that sells to a newsvendor retailer who can improve the quality of her demand information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence the retailer's ... Keywords: endogenous adverse selection, forecasting, rebates, returns, supply chain contracting

Terry A. Taylor; Wenqiang Xiao

2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

Efficient forecasting for hierarchical time series  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting is used as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. Time series data used in these areas is often hierarchically organized and thus, aggregated along the hierarchy levels based ... Keywords: forecasting, hierarchies, optimization, time series

Lars Dannecker; Robert Lorenz; Philipp Rsch; Wolfgang Lehner; Gregor Hackenbroich

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Possibility of Skill Forecast Based on the Finite-Time Dominant Linear Solutions for a Primitive Equation Regional Forecast Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The possibility of using forecast errors originating from the finite-time dominant linear modes for the prediction of forecast skill for a primitive equation regional forecast model is studied. This is similar to the method for skill prediction ...

Tomislava Vuki?evi?

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

432

SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy to someone by E-mail Share SunShot Initiative: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy...

433

New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering...

434

Exploiting Domain Knowledge to Forecast Heating Oil Consumption  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The GasDay laboratory at Marquette University provides forecasts of energy consumption. One such service is the Heating Oil Forecaster

George F. Corliss; Tsuginosuke Sakauchi; Steven R. Vitullo; Ronald H. Brown

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Alphabetically Tools by Platform PC Mac UNIX Internet Tools by Country Related Links Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides...

436

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Monday, January 28, 2002 Monday, January 28, 2002 Natural gas prices generally declined last week as mild temperatures continued in most of the country and working gas storage stocks remain at very high levels. Spot prices at most major markets that serve the eastern two-thirds of the country ended the week down from the previous Friday with weather forecasts for the past weekend calling for daytime temperatures to be in the mid 50s to the low 60s in an area stretching from Chicago to Boston. At the Henry Hub prices moved down 9 cents on Friday to end at $2.04 per MMBtu--$0.25 below the previous Friday. The National Weather Service's (NWS) latest 6- to 10-day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures to continue through this week in most areas east of the Mississippi River. (See Temperature Map) (See Deviation Map) At the NYMEX futures market, the February contract continued to trend down as it ended the week trading at $2.037 per MMBtu-off almost $0.20 from previous Friday. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil gained almost $1.80 per barrel reaching $19.80 on Friday or about $3.40 per MMBtu.

437

Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery...  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery Charger Energy Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery Charger Energy Ex parte guidance for...

438

Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery...  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Agencies You are here Home Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery Charger Energy Ex Parte Meeting with DOE and Navigant Consulting on Battery Charger...

439

update | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

update update Home Sfomail's picture Submitted by Sfomail(48) Member 17 May, 2013 - 11:14 Utility Rates API Version 2 is Live! API developer OpenEI update utility Utility Companies utility rate Utility Rates version 1 version 2 version 3 web service Smart meter After several months of development and testing, the next generation web service for the utility rate database is finally here! I encourage you to check out the V2 Utility Rates API at http://en.openei.org/services/doc/rest/util_rates Kyoung's picture Submitted by Kyoung(155) Contributor 6 September, 2012 - 08:51 GRR Update Meeting scheduled for 9/13 in D.C. D.C. GRR meeting update The next Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap update meeting will be held in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, September 13 from 2-4 p.m. Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load)

440

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. ...

K. A. Macdonald; M. Danks; J. D. Abraham

1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Decision support for financial forecasting  

SciTech Connect

A primary mission of the Budget Management Division of the Air Force is fiscal analysis. This involves formulating, justifying, and tracking financial data during budget preparation and execution. An essential requirement of this process is the ready availability and easy manipulation of past and current budget data. This necessitates the decentralization of the data. A prototypical system, BAFS (Budget Analysis and Forecasting System), that provides such a capability is presented. In its current state, the system is designed to be a decision support tool. A brief report of the budget decisions and activities is presented. The system structure and its major components are discussed. An insight into the implementation strategies and the tool used is provided. The paper concludes with a discussion of future enhancements and the system's evolution into an expert system. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Jairam, B.N.; Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hardee, H.K.

1988-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Construction Safety Forecast for ITER  

SciTech Connect

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project is poised to begin its construction activity. This paper gives an estimate of construction safety as if the experiment was being built in the United States. This estimate of construction injuries and potential fatalities serves as a useful forecast of what can be expected for construction of such a major facility in any country. These data should be considered by the ITER International Team as it plans for safety during the construction phase. Based on average U.S. construction rates, ITER may expect a lost workday case rate of < 4.0 and a fatality count of 0.5 to 0.9 persons per year.

cadwallader, lee charles

2006-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

2010-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

445

Manhattan Project: How to Navigate this Site  

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

HOW TO NAVIGATE THIS SITE HOW TO NAVIGATE THIS SITE Resources > Navigation There are five main topical areas on this web site: Events, People, Places, Processes, and Science. These are further divided into sub-sections, each with its own introduction. The main topical areas can be accessed by clicking on a button on the horizontal bar above. Sub-sections can be accessed by clicking on a topic in the vertical column to your left. If you would like to begin with a quick survey of the Manhattan Project, try reading, in order, the eight Event sub-section pages, beginning with Atomic Discoveries, 1890s-1939. In addition to the main topical areas, the Resources section on the above button bar provides access to a variety of resource materials, including photos, documents, maps, and published histories.

446

What's New: Fall 2004 Update  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Newsletter updates covered fleets about online driver training availability, how to ease fleet manager transitions, E85 infrastructure toolkit, and preparing for reporting season.

Not Available

2004-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

California Appliance Efficiency Regulation Update  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Julie Osborn As part of the response to last summer's electricity crisis, the California Energy Commission (CEC) is updating the state's appliance efficiency regulations. On...

448

Agricultural and Resource Economics Update  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Environmental Impact of Biofuels. ARE Update 15(2):9-11.and the Environmental Impact of Biofuels Gal Hochman, Deepakand the Environmental Impact of Biofuels Gal Hochman, Deepak

Lee, Hyunok; Sumner, Daniel A.; Martin, Philip; Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Zilberman, David

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

APS Technical Update - No. 21  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

1997 APS TECHNICAL UPDATE - No. 21 Subject: Shielding Configuration Control Policy and Procedure Attached is a policy and procedure regarding APS Beamline Shielding Configuration...

450

MSSM Forecast for the LHC  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.

Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri

2009-11-24T23:59:59.000Z

451

TEPP Briefing Update  

Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site

Program (TEPP) Update Presentation Topics * CY 03 TEPP Major Accomplishments * Transportation Emergency Preparedness Program (TEPP), website and Planning Tools * TEPP MERRTT Program 2004 Revisions * Future Department of Energy (DOE) and other Agency Projects CY 03 TEPP Major Accomplishments * 80 DOE-sponsored MERRTT sessions completed with 2,116 responders participating in the training * Continuing Education Hours (CEHs) approved by the Continuing Education Coordination Board for Emergency Medical Services * 304 student received CECBEMS credit CY 03 TEPP Major Accomplishments * Released second jointly FEMA and DOE produced training video and User Guide titled Pre-hospital Practices for Handling a Radiologically Contaminated Patient * Supported a total of six field and tabletop exercises in AZ,

452

Fuel Cell Handbook update  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The objective of this work was to update the 1988 version of DOE`s Fuel Cell Handbook. Significant developments in the various fuel cell technologies required revisions to reflect state-of-the-art configurations and performance. The theoretical presentation was refined in order to make the handbook more useful to both the casual reader and fuel cell or systems analyst. In order to further emphasize the practical application of fuel cell technologies, the system integration information was expanded. In addition, practical elements, such as suggestions and guidelines to approximate fuel cell performance, were provided.

Owens, W.R.; Hirschenhofer, J.H.; Engleman, R.R. Jr.; Stauffer, D.B.

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Forecasting future volatility from option prices, Working  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Weisbach are gratefully acknowledged. I bear full responsibility for all remaining errors. Forecasting Future Volatility from Option Prices Evidence exists that option prices produce biased forecasts of future volatility across a wide variety of options markets. This paper presents two main results. First, approximately half of the forecasting bias in the S&P 500 index (SPX) options market is eliminated by constructing measures of realized volatility from five minute observations on SPX futures rather than from daily closing SPX levels. Second, much of the remaining forecasting bias is eliminated by employing an option pricing model that permits a non-zero market price of volatility risk. It is widely believed that option prices provide the best forecasts of the future volatility of the assets which underlie them. One reason for this belief is that option prices have the ability to impound all publicly available information including all information contained in the history of past prices about the future volatility of the underlying assets. A second related reason is that option pricing theory maintains that if an option prices fails to embody optimal forecasts of the future volatility of the underlying asset, a profitable trading strategy should be available whose implementation would push the option price to the level that reflects the best possible forecast of future volatility.

Allen M. Poteshman

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Overview - May 21, 2001 Somewhat warmer temperatures early in the week, especially in the South, provided a lift to natural gas spot and futures prices. (See Temperature Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map) However, a report of another large stock build and a revised forecast for normal to below-normal temperatures over a larger area of the country turned the week's gains into losses. On a week-to-week basis, the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub dropped $0.10 to end Friday, May 18 at $4.15 per MMBtu, while the NYMEX price of natural gas for June delivery at the Henry Hub declined $0.013 to $4.291 per MMBtu. At 119 Bcf, net injections to storage for the week ended May 11, 2001, were the highest value for the 8-year period of weekly AGA data.

455

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. 9, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, October 6, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, September 28, 2011) Natural gas spot prices at most market locations across the country this past week initially declined and then began to creep upwards as natural gas use for power generation increased. The upward trend was halted yesterday, as prices at nearly all points retreated, possibly due to forecasts for considerably colder weather. After declining from $3.78 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.72 per MMbtu on Thursday, the Henry Hub spot price increased to $3.92 per MMBtu on Tuesday and closed at $3.88 per MMBtu yesterday. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the October 2011

456

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. 7, 2011 at 2:00 P.M. Next Release: Thursday, November 3, 2011 Overview Prices Storage Other Market Trends Overview (For the Week Ending Wednesday, October 26, 2011) The weatherman’s promise for chillier temperatures later this week and mention of the word "snow" in some forecasts was the likely catalyst propelling prices upwards this week. In an environment of generally supportive market fundamentals, the Henry Hub price closed up 7 cents for the week to $3.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at $3.590 per MMBtu. Working natural gas in storage rose last week to 3,716 billion cubic

457

Forecast Bias Correction: A Second Order Method  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss a method for estimating corrections to parameters and initial conditions that would account for the forecast bias. A set of simple experiments with the logistic ordinary differential equation is performed using an iterative version of a first order version of our method to compare with the second order version of the method.

Crowell, Sean

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Industrial production index forecast: Methods comparison  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The purpose of this work is to investigate the suitability of different methods as short term forecast tools. It is studied and compared the application of the Kalman filter method with other forecasting methods when applied to a set of qualitative and quantitative information. The work data set is made of qualitative surveys of conjunture and the industrial production index (IPI). The objective is the attainment of short term forecast models for the Portuguese IPI of the transforming industry. After the previous treatment of the data

M. Filomena Teodoro

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Next Update: November 2013  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Next Update: November 2013 Next Update: November 2013 megawatts January NERC Regional Assesment Area 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FRCC 39,860 37,127 27,122 38,581 37,521 40,258 39,675 45,033 35,545 41,247 34,464 38,352 41,705 44,945 53,093 46,086 NPCC 41,680 41,208 40,009 44,199 45,227 43,553 42,039 45,987 66,215 47,041 43,661 45,002 46,803 45,047 43,849 45,395 Balance of Eastern Region 322,095 335,954 307,784 343,981 347,724 349,937 340,525 377,419 371,550 381,698 347,411 372,213 390,909 398,854 400,873 396,044

460

Natural Gas Weekly Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Due to the upcoming holidays, we will not produce another Natural Gas Weekly Update until January 2, 2002. Due to the upcoming holidays, we will not produce another Natural Gas Weekly Update until January 2, 2002. Overview: Monday, December 17, 2001 The spot price at the Henry Hub finished the trading week on December 14 at $2.41 per MMBtu, roughly 30 cents or 14 percent over the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for January delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.846 per MMBtu, up nearly 28 cents over the previous Friday. Market prices were affected early in the week by colder weather, and then by milder temperatures that prevailed after Tuesday. (Temperature Map)(Temperature Deviation Map) At 22 Bcf, withdrawals from storage were again much smaller than historical averages. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by over 1 percent, climbing to $19.31 per barrel or $3.33 per MMBtu.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Conceptual navigation in knowledge management environments using NavCon  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents conceptual navigation and NavCon, an architecture that implements this navigation in World Wide Web pages. NavCon architecture makes use of ontology as metadata to contextualize user search for information. Based on ontologies, ... Keywords: Conceptual navigation, Context-based navigation, Knowledge management, Ontology, Semantic Web

Jose Renato Villela Dantas; Pedro Porfirio Muniz Farias

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs neural networks  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Streamflow forecasting is very important for water resources management and flood defence. In this paper two forecasting methods are compared: ARIMA versus a multilayer perceptron neural network. This comparison is done by forecasting a streamflow of ... Keywords: artificial neural networks, auto regressive integrated moving average, forecasting, streamflow

Juan Frausto-Solis; Esmeralda Pita; Javier Lagunas

2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Customization and Marketing of Monsoon Forecasts A CSIRCMMACS Synergy Criteria for Technical forecasts of monsoon can significantly aid many sectors like agriculture, power and production industries to the operational forecast, to develop and deliver customized monsoon forecasts based on user need is required

Swathi, P S

464

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

or over predicting electricity demand due to poor weather forecasts is several hundred million dollars outages that many in the area experienced. Deep Thunder can also improve generation-side load forecasting by providing high-resolution weather forecast data for use in electricity demand forecast models. Integrating

Manry, Michael

465

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the residential sector forecast. Mohsen Abrishami prepared the commercial sector forecast. Lynn

466

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1999 NEW and wage growth slow later in the forecast, income growth will average 5% a year between 2000 and 2004. Over the forecast period, population growth will average 0.5% a year. The population will rise from 8

467

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 2001 NEW JERSEY each year. The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in real output of 2.6 percent years. Over the forecast period, both the construction and manufacturing sectors will lose jobs

468

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2001 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2001 NEW JERSEY and 2005, and by an average of 43,000 thereafter (from 2005 to 2020). The R/ECONTM forecast for New Jersey.6 percent a year over the rest of the forecast period. Personal income will rise 5.6 percent this year, down

469

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 1999 NEW JERSEY the rate of inflation should remain under 3% a year. (See Table 1.) #12;Throughout the forecast period and wage growth slow later in the forecast period, income growth will average 4.8% a year between 2000

470

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts

471

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Bryan Alcorn and Mehrzad Soltani Nia prepared the industrial forecast. Miguel Garcia- Cerrutti

472

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON December 1998 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF DECEMBER 1998 NEW 1997 will continue-- though at a reduced rate--through the forecast period that ends in 2001. New inflation of about 1.5%. In 1998, R/ECONTM forecasts that employment will rise by 76,000 jobs, or 2

473

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON October 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF OCTOBER 2000 NEW JERSEY and 2002, with 84,800 jobs being added over the two-year period. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey the rest of the forecast period as foreign immigration declines and the population ages. In the next 10

474

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuation of the current expansion but at a somewhat slower pace in employment through the forecast period will be in services and trade. We also expect considerable growth

475

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON July 1999 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF JULY 1999 NEW JERSEY forecast for New Jersey is for a continuing but slowing expansion. (See Table 1.) In 1998, employment rose increased by 0.7% in 1998. It will slow a bit over the forecast period as foreign immigration declines. #12

476

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

R/ECON April 2000 Forecast RUTGERS ECONOMIC ADVISORY SERVICE FORECAST OF APRIL 2000 NEW JERSEY to more inflation and higher interest rates. The R/ECON TM forecast for New Jersey looks for employment.6% a year over the forecast period. The services and trade sectors will provide 90% of the net increase

477

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast, the uncertainty of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity data due to the chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere is the salient reason for errors

Ross, Shane

478

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations

Kim, Kiho

479

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

480

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Time dependent Directional Profit Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting Jingtao YAO Chew Lim@comp.nus.edu.sg Abstract Goodness­of­fit is the most popular criterion for neural network time series forecasting. In the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit

Yao, JingTao

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast updates navigant" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

A Study on Training Criteria for Financial Time Series Forecasting JingTao YAO Dept of Information on goodness-of-fit which is also the most popular criterion forecasting. How ever, in the context of financial time series forecasting, we are not only concerned at how good the forecasts fit their target. In order

Yao, JingTao

482

A new class of hybrid models for time series forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Applying quantitative models for forecasting and assisting investment decision making has become more indispensable in business practices than ever before. Improving forecasting especially time series forecasting accuracy is an important yet often difficult ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Hybrid models, Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs), Time series forecasting

Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Geotracker: geospatial and temporal RSS navigation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Web is rapidly moving towards a platform for mass collaboration in content production and consumption. Fresh content on a variety of topics, people, and places is being created and made available on the Web at breathtaking speed. Navigating the content ... Keywords: RSS, blog, geospatial tagging, multimedia

Yih-Farn Robin Chen; Giuseppe Di Fabbrizio; David Gibbon; Serban Jora; Bernard Renger; Bin Wei

2007-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

KDD on IVR Navigation Trees: Case Study  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This article presents a case study about data mining applied in IVR's navigation trees. Using data from a Call Center, the main objective is to discover patterns with information about the phone calls. Using a specific part from this information, it ... Keywords: application algorithm, kdd, ura

Thiago T. Anglico; Thais Santos Bueno; Silvio Bortoleto; Anderson Ravanello

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Navigating massive data sets via local clustering  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper introduces a scalable method for feature extraction and navigation of large data sets by means of local clustering, where clusters are modeled as overlapping neighborhoods. Under the model, intra-cluster association and external differentiation ... Keywords: association, confidence, nearest neighbor, soft clustering

Michael E. Houle

2003-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

SEARCH NAVIGATE REFINE PERSONALIZE SAVE SEARCH OPERATORS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SEARCH NAVIGATE REFINE PERSONALIZE SAVE SEARCH OPERATORS Search using AND, OR, NOT, and SAME (same sentence) to create logical search state- ments. Nest search operators inside parentheses. Search exact Web of Science® Quick Reference Card Search over 9,200 journals from over 45 different languages

Russell, Lynn

489

Navigating in a mobile XHTML application  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Internet has been a great success in the fixed world, whereas WAP (Wireless Application Protocol), the mobile Internet, has not fulfilled its promise. However, now the analysts have started to believe in a rise of the mobile Internet again. WAP 2.0, ... Keywords: WAP, XHTML mobile profile, mobile internet, mobile phones, navigation, wireless web

Anne Kaikkonen; Virpi Roto

2003-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

2009 Final Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The purpose of this brief is to update our previous evaluation of yield potential for corn and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and

Scott Irwin; Darrel Good; Mike Tannura

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

New results in forecasting of photovoltaic systems output based on solar radiation forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Accurate short term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) systems output has a great significance for fast development of PV parks in South-East Europe

Laurentiu Fara

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

493

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

494

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

495

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

496

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

497

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

498

Artificial Skill and Validation in Meteorological Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a simulation study of multiple regression prediction models for meteorological forecasting are reported. The effects of sample size, amount, and severity of nonrepresentative data in the population, inclusion of noninformative ...

Paul W. Mielke Jr.; Kenneth J. Berry; Christopher W. Landsea; William M. Gray

1996-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

499

Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The cross-validated hindcast skills of various multimodel ensemble combination strategies are compared for probabilistic predictions of monthly SST anomalies in the ENSO-related Nio-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast data from ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston

2008-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study explains the method of cross validation for assessing forecast skill of empirical prediction models. Cross validation provides a relatively accurate measure of an empirical procedure's ability to produce a useful prediction rule from a ...

J. B. Elsner; C. P. Schmertmann

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z