National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast system pilot

  1. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  2. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  5. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  6. Drone Detection, Video Feed Interception and Pilot Locating System...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Drone Detection, Video Feed Interception and Pilot Locating System The invention provides the capability of detecting commercially available and custom homemade remotely operated...

  7. Final Report- Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California independent system operator’s load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecasts.

  8. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  9. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  10. An evaluation of the management system verification pilot at Hanford

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BRIGGS, C.R.

    1998-11-12

    The Chemical Management System (CMS), currently under development at Hanford, was used as the ''test program'' for pilot testing the value added aspects of the Chemical Manufacturers Association's (CMA) Management Systems Verification (MSV) process. The MSV process, which was developed by CMA's member chemical companies specifically as a tool to assist in the continuous improvement of environment, safety and health (ESH) performance, represents a commercial sector ''best practice'' for evaluating ESH management systems. The primary purpose of Hanford's MSV Pilot was to evaluate the applicability and utility of the MSV process in the Department of Energy (DOE) environment. However, because the Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) is the framework for ESH management at Hanford and at all DOE sites, the pilot specifically considered the MSV process in the context of a possible future adjunct to Integrated Safety Management System Verification (ISMSV) efforts at Hanford and elsewhere within the DOE complex. The pilot involved the conduct of two-hour interviews with four separate panels of individuals with functional responsibilities related to the CMS including the Department of Energy Richland Operations (DOE-RL), Fluor Daniel Hanford (FDH) and FDH's major subcontractors (MSCS). A semi-structured interview process was employed by the team of three ''verifiers'' who directed open-ended questions to the panels regarding the development, integration and effectiveness of management systems necessary to ensure the sustainability of the CMS effort. An ''MSV Pilot Effectiveness Survey'' also was completed by each panel participant immediately following the interview.

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  13. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  15. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  16. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  17. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  19. DOE DISS/ET pilot system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strait, R.S.; Wagner, E.E.

    1994-07-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Safeguards and Security initiated the DOE Integrated Security System / Electronic Transfer (DISS/ET) for the purpose of reducing the time required to process security clearance requests. DISS/ET will be an integrated system using electronic commerce technologies for the collection and processing of personnel security clearance data, and its transfer between DOE local security clearance offices, DOE Operations Offices, and the Office of Personnel Management. The system will use electronic forms to collect clearance applicant data. The forms data will be combined with electronic fingerprint images and packaged in a secure encrypted electronic mail envelope for transmission across the Internet. Information provided by the applicant will be authenticated using digital signatures. All processing will be done electronically.

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  1. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  2. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  3. APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant - Monitoring System Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James Francfort; Dimitri Hochard

    2005-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), along with Electric Transportation Applications and Arizona Pubic Service (APS), is monitoring the operations of the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant to determine the costs to produce hydrogen fuels (including 100% hydrogen as well as hydrogen and compressed natural gas blends) for use by fleets and other operators of advanced-technology vehicles. The hydrogen fuel cost data will be used as benchmark data by technology modelers as well as research and development programs. The Pilot Plant can produce up to 18 kilograms (kg) of hydrogen per day by electrolysis. It can store up to 155 kg of hydrogen at various pressures up to 6,000 psi. The dispenser island can fuel vehicles with 100% hydrogen at 5,000 psi and with blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas at 3,600 psi. The monitoring system was designed to track hydrogen delivery to each of the three storage areas and to monitor the use of electricity on all major equipment in the Pilot Plant, including the fuel dispenser island. In addition, water used for the electrolysis process is monitored to allow calculation of the total cost of plant operations and plant efficiencies. The monitoring system at the Pilot Plant will include about 100 sensors when complete (50 are installed to date), allowing for analysis of component, subsystems, and plant-level costs. The monitoring software is mostly off-the-shelve, with a custom interface. The majority of the sensors input to the Programmable Automation Controller as 4- to 20-mA analog signals. The plant can be monitored over of the Internet, but the control functions are restricted to the control room equipment. Using the APS general service plan E32 electric rate of 2.105 cents per kWh, during a recent eight-month period when 1,200 kg of hydrogen was produced and the plant capacity factor was 26%, the electricity cost to produce one kg of hydrogen was $3.43. However, the

  4. Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Project | Department of Energy Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal Energy Project Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal Energy Project Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal Energy Project 01_puget_snopud_presentation.pptx (4.28 MB) More Documents & Publications Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project Sunlight Photonics (TRL 4 System) - Tidal Energy

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Waste Information System (Public Access)

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a DOE facility located in the desert outside Carlsbad, New Mexico. Its mission is to safely dispose of defense-related transuranic radioactive waste. Disposal ôroomsö are carved out of the Permian Salt Formation deep below the desertÆs surface. The WIPP Waste Information Service (WWIS) was established in accordance with an Agreement between the United States Department of Energy and the New Mexico Environment Department, dated February 11, 2005, Docket Number HWB 04-07 (CO). The service provides information the containers emplaced at WIPP and the waste products they hold. The public may query by shipment number, location of waste stream or location of the container after it is placed at WIPP, date placed, and Haz Codes or other information about the waste stream profiles. For example, choosing the waste stream identified as ID-SDA-SLUDGE reveals that it may contain more than 20 chemical waste products, including arsenic, spent halogenated solvents, potassium cyanide, and chloroform. The system then tells you each numbered container that has this kind of sludge. Container data is available within 14 days after the containerÆs emplacement in the WIPP Repository.

  6. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  7. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  8. Low-level waste vitrification pilot-scale system need report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrissey, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.

    1996-03-01

    This report examines the need for pilot-scale testing in support of the low-level vitrification facility at Hanford. In addition, the report examines the availability of on-site facilities to contain a pilot-plant. It is recommended that a non-radioactive pilot-plant be operated for extended periods. In addition, it is recommended that two small-scale systems, one processing radioactive waste feed and one processing a simulated waste feed be used for validation of waste simulants. The actual scale of the pilot-plant will be determined from the technologies included in conceptual design of the plant. However, for the purposes of this review, a plant of 5 to 10 metric ton/day of glass production was assumed. It is recommended that a detailed data needs package and integrated flowsheet be developed in FY95 to clearly identify data requirements and identify relationships with other TWRS elements. A pilot-plant will contribute to the reduction of uncertainty in the design and initial operation of the vitrification facility to an acceptable level. Prior to pilot-scale testing, the components will not have been operated as an integrated system and will not have been tested for extended operating periods. Testing for extended periods at pilot-scale will allow verification of the flowsheet including the effects of recycle streams. In addition, extended testing will allow evaluation of wear, corrosion and mechanical reality of individual components, potential accumulations within the components, and the sensitivity of the process to operating conditions. Also, the pilot facility will provide evidence that the facility will meet radioactive and nonradioactive environmental release limits, and increase the confidence in scale-up. The pilot-scale testing data and resulting improvements in the vitrification facility design will reduce the time required for cold chemical testing in the vitrification facility.

  9. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  10. glideinWMS - A generic pilot-based Workload Management System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sfiligoi, Igor; /Fermilab

    2007-09-01

    The Grid resources are distributed among hundreds of independent Grid sites, requiring a higher level Workload Management System (WMS) to be used efficiently. Pilot jobs have been used for this purpose by many communities, bringing increased reliability, global fair share and just in time resource matching. GlideinWMS is a WMS based on the Condor glidein concept, i.e. a regular Condor pool, with the Condor daemons (startds) being started by pilot jobs, and real jobs being vanilla, standard or MPI universe jobs. The glideinWMS is composed of a set of Glidein Factories, handling the submission of pilot jobs to a set of Grid sites, and a set of VO Frontends, requesting pilot submission based on the status of user jobs. This paper contains the structural overview of glideinWMS as well as a detailed description of the current implementation and the current scalability limits.

  11. Resource Allocation Support System (RASS): Summary report of the 1992 pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buehring, W.A.; Whitfield, R.G.; Wolsko, T.D.; Kier, P.H.; Absil, M.J.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Sapinski, P.F.

    1993-02-01

    The Resource Allocation Support System (RASS) is a decision-aiding system being developed to assist the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Waste Management in program and budget decision making. Four pilot studies were conducted at DOE field offices in summer 1992 to evaluate and improve the RASS design. This report summarizes the combined results of the individual field office pilot studies. Results are presented from different perspectives to illustrate the type of information that would be available from RASS. Lessons learned and directions for future RASS developments are also presented.

  12. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  13. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the integration cost of high levels of solar energy into the electricity grid. This will help SunShot to assess current technology and practices in this field and identify the gaps and needs for further research.

  14. Hydraulically actuated fuel injector including a pilot operated spool valve assembly and hydraulic system using same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shafer, Scott F.

    2002-01-01

    The present invention relates to hydraulic systems including hydraulically actuated fuel injectors that have a pilot operated spool valve assembly. One class of hydraulically actuated fuel injectors includes a solenoid driven pilot valve that controls the initiation of the injection event. However, during cold start conditions, hydraulic fluid, typically engine lubricating oil, is particularly viscous and is often difficult to displace through the relatively small drain path that is defined past the pilot valve member. Because the spool valve typically responds slower than expected during cold start due to the difficulty in displacing the relatively viscous oil, accurate start of injection timing can be difficult to achieve. There also exists a greater difficulty in reaching the higher end of the cold operating speed range. Therefore, the present invention utilizes a fluid evacuation valve to aid in displacement of the relatively viscous oil during cold start conditions.

  15. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary Blythe; Conor Braman; Katherine Dombrowski; Tom Machalek

    2010-12-31

    This document is the final technical report for Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, 'Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,' which was conducted over the time-period January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2010. The objective of this project has been to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid catalysts and/or fixed-structure mercury sorbents to promote the removal of total mercury and oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, followed by wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project was co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL), EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Energy (now called Luminant), Southern Company, Salt River Project (SRP) and Duke Energy. URS Group was the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses fixed-structure sorbents and/or catalysts to promote the removal of total mercury and/or oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury not adsorbed is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The project has tested candidate materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. Pilot-scale catalytic oxidation tests have been completed for periods of approximately 14 to19 months at three sites, with an additional round of pilot-scale fixed-structure sorbent tests being conducted at one of those sites. Additionally, pilot-scale wet FGD tests have been conducted downstream of mercury oxidation catalysts at a total of four sites. The sites include the two of three sites from this project and two sites where catalytic oxidation pilot testing was conducted as part of a previous DOE-NETL project. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests were also conducted at a fifth site, but with no catalyst or fixed

  16. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  17. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  18. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  19. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  20. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  1. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  2. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant TruDock crane system analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morris, B.C.; Carter, M.

    1996-10-01

    The WIPP TruDock crane system located in the Waste Handling Building was identified in the WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR), November 1995, as a potential accident concern due to failures which could result in a dropped load. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the frequency of failure of the TruDock crane system resulting in a dropped load and subsequent loss of primary containment, i.e. drum failure. The frequency of dropped loads was estimated to be 9.81E-03/year or approximately one every 102 years (or, for the 25% contingency, 7.36E-03/year or approximately one every 136 years). The dominant accident contributor was the failure of the cable/hook assemblies, based on failure data obtained from NUREG-0612, as analyzed by PLG, Inc. The WIPP crane system undergoes a rigorous test and maintenance program, crane operation is discontinued following any abnormality, and the crane operator and load spotter are required to be trained in safe crane operation, therefore it is felt that the WIPP crane performance will exceed the data presented in NUREG-0612 and the estimated failure frequency is felt to be conservative.

  3. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  4. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  5. HOW TO DEAL WITH WASTE ACCEPTANCE UNCERTAINTY USING THE WASTE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FORECASTING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITY SYSTEM (WACFACS)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Redus, K. S.; Hampshire, G. J.; Patterson, J. E.; Perkins, A. B.

    2002-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria Forecasting and Analysis Capability System (WACFACS) is used to plan for, evaluate, and control the supply of approximately 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous wastes from over 60 environmental restoration projects between FY02 through FY10 to the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). WACFACS is a validated decision support tool that propagates uncertainties inherent in site-related contaminant characterization data, disposition volumes during EMWMF operations, and project schedules to quantitatively determine the confidence that risk-based performance standards are met. Trade-offs in schedule, volumes of waste lots, and allowable concentrations of contaminants are performed to optimize project waste disposition, regulatory compliance, and disposal cell management.

  6. MBM fuel feeding system design and evaluation for FBG pilot plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campbell, William A.; Fonstad, Terry; Pugsley, Todd; Gerspacher, Regan

    2012-06-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A 1-5 g/s fuel feeding system for pilot scale FBG was designed, built and tested. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Multiple conveying stages improve pressure balancing, flow control and stability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Secondary conveyor stage reduced output irregularity from 47% to 15%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic air sparging effective in dealing with poor flow ability of MBM powder. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic injection port plugs with char at gasification temperature of 850 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: A biomass fuel feeding system has been designed, constructed and evaluated for a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) pilot plant at the University of Saskatchewan (Saskatoon, SK, Canada). The system was designed for meat and bone meal (MBM) to be injected into the gasifier at a mass flow-rate range of 1-5 g/s. The designed system consists of two stages of screw conveyors, including a metering stage which controlled the flow-rate of fuel, a rotary airlock and an injection conveyor stage, which delivered that fuel at a consistent rate to the FBG. The rotary airlock which was placed between these conveyors, proved unable to maintain a pressure seal, thus the entire conveying system was sealed and pressurized. A pneumatic injection nozzle was also fabricated, tested and fitted to the end of the injection conveyor for direct injection and dispersal into the fluidized bed. The 150 mm metering screw conveyor was shown to effectively control the mass output rate of the system, across a fuel output range of 1-25 g/s, while the addition of the 50 mm injection screw conveyor reduced the irregularity (error) of the system output rate from 47% to 15%. Although material plugging was found to be an issue in the inlet hopper to the injection conveyor, the addition of air sparging ports and a system to pulse air into those ports was found to successfully eliminate this issue. The addition of the pneumatic injection nozzle

  7. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM-PHASE I

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ted Bestor

    2003-03-04

    This report documents the first year's effort towards a 3-year program to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. In essence, all Phase I goals and objectives were met. We intend to proceed with the Phase II research plan, as set forth by the applicable Research Management Plan. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of micropilot ignition for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase I were to develop a single-cylinder test chamber to study the injection of pilot fuel into a combustion cylinder and to develop, install and test a multi-cylinder micropilot ignition system for a 4-cylinder, natural gas test engine. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support these two (2) primarily elements in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. Research activities for Micropilot Phase I were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are expected to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. An extensive state-of-art review was conducted to leverage the existing body of knowledge of micropilot ignition with respect to retrofit applications. Additionally, commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The four-cylinder prototype data was encouraging for the micro-pilot ignition technology when compared to spark ignition. Initial testing results showed: (1) Brake specific fuel consumption of natural gas was improved from standard spark ignition across the map, 1% at full load and 5% at 70% load. (2) 0% misfires for all points on micropilot ignition. Fuel savings were most likely due to this percent misfire improvement. (3

  8. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard Rhudy

    2006-06-30

    This final report presents and discusses results from a mercury control process development project entitled ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems''. The objective of this project was to demonstrate at pilot scale a mercury control technology that uses solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. Oxidized mercury is removed in downstream wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) absorbers and leaves with the FGD byproducts. The goal of the project was to achieve 90% oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas and 90% overall mercury capture with the downstream wet FGD system. The project was co-funded by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (now CPS Energy) of San Antonio were also project co-funders and provided host sites. URS Group, Inc. was the prime contractor. Longer-term pilot-scale tests were conducted at two sites to provide catalyst life data. GRE provided the first site, at their Coal Creek Station (CCS), which fires North Dakota lignite, and CPS Energy provided the second site, at their Spruce Plant, which fires Powder River Basin (PRB) coal. Mercury oxidation catalyst testing began at CCS in October 2002 and continued through the end of June 2004, representing nearly 21 months of catalyst operation. An important finding was that, even though the mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit was installed downstream of a high-efficiency ESP, fly ash buildup began to plug flue gas flow through the horizontal catalyst cells. Sonic horns were installed in each catalyst compartment and appeared to limit fly ash buildup. A palladium-based catalyst showed initial elemental mercury oxidation percentages of 95% across the catalyst, declining to 67% after 21 months in service. A carbon-based catalyst began with almost 98

  9. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ted Bestor

    2004-06-01

    minimum pilot quantity that the engine would operate on was roughly cut in half. (3) A successful concept demonstration of engine lube oil pilot injection was performed where the minimum operational boost was reduced by another 5''Hg to a boost level of 3''Hg; this is, depending on altitude, in the range of boost levels of many blower and piston scavenged low BMEP engines. (4) Micropilot ignition compares very favorably to other ignitions systems. The performance of micropilot ignition with mechanical gas admission valves is very similar to the performance of precombustion chamber ignition with high pressure fuel injection. Compared to spark ignition with mechanical gas admission valves the lean limit of operation is extended by about 5''Hg. These laboratory results will be enhanced, demonstrated and commercialized by others, with management and support from CSU, during Phase III of the Micropilot Ignition program.

  10. Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: A preliminary example

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Anderson, D.R.; Baker, B.L.

    1996-04-01

    A systems prioritization methodology (SPM) is under development to provide guidance to the US DOE on experimental programs and design modifications to be supported in the development of a successful licensing application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. The purpose of the SPM is to determine the probabilities that the implementation of different combinations of experimental programs and design modifications, referred to as activity sets, will lead to compliance. Appropriate tradeoffs between compliance probability, implementation cost and implementation time can then be made in the selection of the activity set to be supported in the development of a licensing application. Descriptions are given for the conceptual structure of the SPM and the manner in which this structure determines the computational implementation of an example SPM application. Due to the sophisticated structure of the SPM and the computational demands of many of its components, the overall computational structure must be organized carefully to provide the compliance probabilities for the large number of activity sets under consideration at an acceptable computational cost. Conceptually, the determination of each compliance probability is equivalent to a large numerical integration problem. 96 refs., 31 figs., 36 tabs.

  11. Forecast Change

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (cents/kWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 -0.9% Expenditures $415 $405 $393 $396 $408 $424 3.9% New England Usage (kWh) 2,122 2,188 2,173 1,930 1,992 2,082 4.5% Price (cents/kWh) 15.85 15.50 16.04 17.63 18.64 18.37 -1.5% Expenditures $336 $339 $348 $340 $371 $382 3.0% Mid-Atlantic Usage (kWh) 2,531 2,548 2,447 2,234 2,371 2,497 5.3% Price (cents/kWh) 16.39 15.63

  12. Industrial market for sulfur dioxide emission-control systems. Final report. [Forecasting to 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-08-01

    Under the postulated EIA medium world oil price scenario, in which oil prices are projected to rise at a real rate of 2.2% per year, coal will represent from 78 to 91% of MFBI fuel consumption by the year 2000, up from the present 16%. This increase would occur even in the absence of FUA, because the cost of coal is substantially lower than the cost of oil or gas. Much of this market will develop in the relatively near to intermediate term (before 1990). Annual installations will be much lower (by about 40%) after that period, reflecting a lower overall steam demand growth rate and the fact that much of the discretionary conversion of gas and oil boilers to coal will have been completed. About 22% of the sales will be for discretionary conversion of oil and gas boilers still having some useful life; the rest will be for nondiscretionary expansion or replacement of worn-out boilers. Under the postulated cost and performance estimates for the competing coal-burning technologies, we expect that AFB combustors and lime spray dryer FGD systems will dominate the market, with 42% of the market in our base case scenario. If the attitudes of the industrial decision-makers are factored into the analyses, particularly their aversion to FGD systems with wet wastes, the AFB and lime spray dryer technologies will capture as much as 73% of the coal-burning market. Costs for the various flue gas desulfurization (FGD) technologies were projected to be sufficiently close that the selection of one over another will depend on site-specific factors such as the availability of waste disposal facilities, the demonstrated reliability of the particular systems, and the vendor's reputation.

  13. Pilot scale test of a produced water-treatment system for initial removal of organic compounds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Enid J; Kwon, Soondong; Katz, Lynn; Kinney, Kerry

    2008-01-01

    A pilot-scale test to remove polar and non-polar organics from produced water was performed at a disposal facility in Farmington NM. We used surfactant-modified zeolite (SMZ) adsorbent beds and a membrane bioreactor (MBR) in combination to reduce the organic carbon content of produced water prior to reverse osmosis (RO). Reduction of total influent organic carbon (TOC) to 5 mg/L or less is desirable for efficient RO system operation. Most water disposed at the facility is from coal-bed gas production, with oil production waters intermixed. Up to 20 gal/d of produced water was cycled through two SMZ adsorbent units to remove volatile organic compounds (BTEX, acetone) and semivolatile organic compounds (e.g., napthalene). Output water from the SMZ units was sent to the MBR for removal of the organic acid component of TOC. Removal of inorganic (Mn and Fe oxide) particulates by the SMZ system was observed. The SMZ columns removed up to 40% of the influent TOC (600 mg/L). BTEX concentrations were reduced from the initial input of 70 mg/L to 5 mg/L by the SMZ and to an average of 2 mg/L after the MBR. Removal rates of acetate (input 120-170 mg/L) and TOC (input up to 45 mg/L) were up to 100% and 92%, respectively. The water pH rose from 8.5 to 8.8 following organic acid removal in the MBR; this relatively high pH was likely responsible for observed scaling of the MBR internal membrane. Additional laboratory studies showed the scaling can be reduced by metered addition of acid to reduce the pH. Significantly, organic removal in the MBR was accomplished with a very low biomass concentration of 1 g/L throughout the field trial. An earlier engineering evaluation shows produced water treatment by the SMZ/MBR/RO system would cost from $0.13 to $0.20 per bbl at up to 40 gpm. Current estimated disposal costs for produced water are $1.75 to $4.91 per bbl when transportation costs are included, with even higher rates in some regions. Our results suggest that treatment by an SMZ

  14. Central receiver solar thermal power system, Phase 1: CDRL Item 2, pilot plant preliminary design report. Volume VII. Pilot plant cost and commercial plant cost and performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hallet, Jr., R. W.; Gervais, R. L.

    1980-05-01

    Detailed cost and performance data for the proposed tower focus pilot plant and commercial plant are given. The baseline central receiver concept defined by the MDAC team consists of the following features: (A) an external receiver mounted on a tower, and located in a 360/sup 0/ array of sun-tracking heliostats which comprise the collector subsystem. (B) feedwater from the electrical power generation subsystem is pumped through a riser to the receiver, where the feedwater is converted to superheated steam in a single pass through the tubes of the receiver panels. (C) The steam from the receiver is routed through a downcomer to the ground and introduced to a turbine directly for expansion and generation of electricity, and/or to a thermal storage subsystem, where the steam is condensed in charging heat exchangers to heat a dual-medium oil and rock thermal storage unit (TSU). (D) Extended operation after daylight hours is facilitated by discharging the TSU to generate steam for feeding the admission port of the turbine. (E) Overall control of the system is provided by a master control unit, which handles the interactions between subsystems that take place during startup, shutdown, and transitions between operating modes. (WHK)

  15. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  16. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  17. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  19. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability ... that measure feedstock production, water quality, water quantity, and biodiversity. ...

  20. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  1. Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project Sunlight Photonics (TRL 4 System) - Tidal Energy System for On-shore Power ...

  2. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  4. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable.

  5. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  6. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  7. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  8. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  9. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  10. Smart Grid Pilot Program- Colorado

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This b-roll shows a pilot program to modernize the electrical distribution system in Fort Collins, Colorado, where a smart grid connects industrial and commercial buildings employing renewable...

  11. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  12. Evaluation Pilot-Scale Melter Systems for the Direct Vitrification Development Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mc Cray, Casey William; Thomson, Troy David

    2001-09-01

    This report documents the results of an evaluation conducted to identify a joule-heated melter system that could be installed in the Idaho Falls area in support of the Direct Vitrification Development Program. The relocation was to be completed by January 1, 2002, within a total budget of one million dollars. Coordination with the Department of Energy Tanks Focus Area identified five melters or melter systems that could potentially support the Direct Vitrification Development Program. Each unit was inspected and evaluated based on qualitative criteria such as availability, completeness of the system, contamination, scalability, materials of construction, facility requirements, and any unique features.

  13. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  14. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM -- PHASE III

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott Chase; Daniel Olsen; Ted Bestor

    2005-03-01

    This report documents the third year's effort towards a 3-year program conducted by the Engines & Energy Conversion Laboratory (EECL) at Colorado State University (CSU) to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. Research activities for the overall program were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. Commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. Two earlier phases of development precede this report. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of retrofit micropilot ignition (RMI) systems for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios under laboratory conditions at the EECL. The objective for Phase II was to further develop and optimize the micropilot ignition system at the EECL for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. These laboratory results were enhanced, then verified via a field demonstration project during Phase III of the Micropilot Ignition program. An Implementation Team of qualified engine retrofit service providers was assembled to install the retrofit micropilot ignition system for an engine operated by El Paso Pipeline Group at a compressor station near Window Rock, Arizona. Testing of this demonstration unit showed that the same benefits identified by laboratory testing at CSU, i.e., reduced fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (NOx, THC, CO, and CH2O). Installation efforts at Window Rock were completed towards the end of the budget period, which did not leave sufficient time to complete the durability testing. These efforts are ongoing, with funding provided by El Paso Pipeline Group, and the results will be documented in a report

  15. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  16. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  17. Analysis of Flow in Pilot Operated Safety and Relief Valve of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kwon, Soon-Bum; Lee, Dong-Won; Kim, In-Goo; Ahn, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Hho-Jung

    2004-07-01

    When the POSRV equipped in a nuclear power plant opens in instant by a failure in coolant system of PWR, a moving shock wave generates, and propagates downstream of the valve, inducing a complicated unsteadiness. The moving shock wave may exert severe load to the structure. In this connection, a method of gradual opening of the valve is used to reduce the load acting on the wall at the downstream of the POSRV. In the present study, experiments and calculations are performed to investigate the detail unsteady flow at the various pipe units and the effect of valve opening time on the flow downstream of the valve. In calculation by using of air as working fluid, 2-dimensional, unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved by finite volume method. It was found that when the incident shock wave passes through the pipe unit, it may experience diffraction, reflection and interaction with a vortex. Furthermore, the geometry of the pipe unit affects the reflection type of shock wave and changes the load acting on the wall of pipe unit. It was also turned out that the maximum force acting on the wall of the pipe unit becomes in order of T-junction, 108 deg. elbow and branch in magnitude, respectively. And, the results obtained that show that the rapid pressure rise due to the moving shock wave by instant POSRV valve opening is attenuated by employing the gradual opening. (authors)

  18. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  19. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant AFFIDAVIT FOR SURVIVING RELATIVE STATE ) ) ss: COUNTY OF ) That I, , am the...

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record of Observations of the Design and Modification Progress of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Underground Interim Ventilation System and Supplemental Ventilation System November 2015

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    WIPP-IVS/SVS-2015-11-15 Site: Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Subject: Observations of the design and modification progress of the WIPP Underground Interim Ventilation System and Supplemental Ventilation System Dates of Activity: 11/15/2015 - 11/19/2015 Report Preparer: Jeff Snook Activity Description / Purpose: The Office of Environment, Safety and Health Assessments within the Office of Enterprise Assessments (EA) is reviewing the design, installation, and startup of the WIPP Interim

  2. Development of a pilot-scale kinetic extruder feeder system and test program. Phase II. Verification testing. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-01-12

    This report describes the work done under Phase II, the verification testing of the Kinetic Extruder. The main objective of the test program was to determine failure modes and wear rates. Only minor auxiliary equipment malfunctions were encountered. Wear rates indicate useful life expectancy of from 1 to 5 years for wear-exposed components. Recommendations are made for adapting the equipment for pilot plant and commercial applications. 3 references, 20 figures, 12 tables.

  3. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  4. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  6. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  7. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  8. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  9. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  10. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  12. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  14. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  15. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Soft Costs Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar ...

  16. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... will share their expertise with CLASIC and CHAPS forecasters and project leaders as they consult on the forecast that will determine the day's operations plan. -- Storm Prediction ...

  17. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  18. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    turbines operate closer to maximum capacity, leading to lower energy costs for consumers. ... for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a widely used weather prediction system. ...

  19. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    electric system operators, and solar project owners better predict when and how much ... production varies, an accurate solar forecast is needed in order to maintain an ...

  20. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    of Energy Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges October 25, 2013 - 12:24pm Addthis This artist's rendering illustrates the full site installation, including a new aerosol observing system (far left) and a precipitation radar (far right, with 20-ft tower). The site is located near the Graciosa Island aiport terminal, hidden by the image inset. | Image courtesy of ARM Climate Research Facility. This artist's

  1. Murray City Power- Net Metering Pilot Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Under a pilot program, Murray City Power offers net metering to customers that generate electricity using photovoltaic (PV), wind-electric or hydroelectric systems with a maximum capacity of 10...

  2. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  3. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  4. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  5. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-07-20.xlsx (72.85 KB) More Documents & Publications Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment Assessment Report: OAS-V-15-01

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  7. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  8. Sandia Energy - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Accident Investigation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Home Energy Nuclear Energy News News & Events Research & Capabilities Systems Analysis Materials Science Computational Modeling & Simulation Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Accident...

  9. Impact Evaluation of BGE's SEP 2009 Pilot | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation Comments of Baltimore Gas & Electric Company FERC Presendation: Demand Response as Power System Resources, October ...

  10. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayed˛ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  11. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Shaft Sealing System Compliance Submittal Design Report. Volume 1 and 2: Main report, appendices A, B, C, and D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This report describes a shaft sealing system design for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a proposed nuclear waste repository in bedded salt. The system is designed to limit entry of water and release of contaminants through the four existing shafts after the WIPP is decommissioned. The design approach applies redundancy to functional elements and specifies multiple, common, low-permeability materials to reduce uncertainty in performance. The system comprises 13 elements that completely fill the shafts with engineered materials possessing high density and low permeability. Laboratory and field measurements of component properties and performance provide the basis for the design and related evaluations. Hydrologic, mechanical, thermal, and physical features of the system are evaluated in a series of calculations. These evaluations indicate that the design guidance is addressed by effectively limiting transport of fluids within the shafts, thereby limiting transport of hazardous material to regulatory boundaries. Additionally, the use or adaptation of existing technologies for placement of the seal components combined with the use of available, common materials assure that the design can be constructed.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  13. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  14. PILOT-SCALE TEST RESULTS OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF LIQUID HIGH-LEVEL WASTES AT THE HANFORD SITE WASHINGTON USA -11364

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CORBETT JE; TEDESCH AR; WILSON RA; BECK TH; LARKIN J

    2011-02-14

    A modular, transportable evaporator system, using thin film evaporative technology, is planned for deployment at the Hanford radioactive waste storage tank complex. This technology, herein referred to as a wiped film evaporator (WFE), will be located at grade level above an underground storage tank to receive pumped liquids, concentrate the liquid stream from 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.4 and then return the concentrated solution back into the tank. Water is removed by evaporation at an internal heated drum surface exposed to high vacuum. The condensed water stream will be shipped to the site effluent treatment facility for final disposal. This operation provides significant risk mitigation to failure of the aging 242-A Evaporator facility; the only operating evaporative system at Hanford maximizing waste storage. This technology is being implemented through a development and deployment project by the tank farm operating contractor, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), for the Office of River Protection/Department of Energy (ORPIDOE), through Columbia Energy and Environmental Services, Inc. (Columbia Energy). The project will finalize technology maturity and install a system at one of the double-shell tank farms. This paper summarizes results of a pilot-scale test program conducted during calendar year 2010 as part of the ongoing technology maturation development scope for the WFE.

  15. Pilot evaluation of electricity-reliability and power-quality monitoring in California's Silicon Valley with the I-Grid(R) system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, Joseph; Divan, Deepak; Brumsickle, William

    2004-02-01

    Power-quality events are of increasing concern for the economy because today's equipment, particularly computers and automated manufacturing devices, is susceptible to these imperceptible voltage changes. A small variation in voltage can cause this equipment to shut down for long periods, resulting in significant business losses. Tiny variations in power quality are difficult to detect except with expensive monitoring equipment used by trained technicians, so many electricity customers are unaware of the role of power-quality events in equipment malfunctioning. This report describes the findings from a pilot study coordinated through the Silicon Valley Manufacturers Group in California to explore the capabilities of I-Grid(R), a new power-quality monitoring system. This system is designed to improve the accessibility of power-quality in formation and to increase understanding of the growing importance of electricity reliability and power quality to the economy. The study used data collected by I-Grid sensors at seven Silicon Valley firms to investigate the impacts of power quality on individual study participants as well as to explore the capabilities of the I-Grid system to detect events on the larger electricity grid by means of correlation of data from the sensors at the different sites. In addition, study participants were interviewed about the value they place on power quality, and their efforts to address electricity-reliability and power-quality problems. Issues were identified that should be taken into consideration in developing a larger, potentially nationwide, network of power-quality sensors.

  16. FINAL REPORT TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-02R0100-2 REV 1 2/17/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BARDAKCI T; GONG W; D'ANGELO NA; SCHATZ TR; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from a series of nine tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part B1 [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plans. The nine tests reported here were preceded by an initial series of short-duration tests conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Reports. The DM1200 system was deployed for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. These tests include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The primary objective of the present series of tests was to determine the effects of a variety of parameters on the glass production rate in comparison to the RPP-WTP HL W design basis of 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d. Previous testing on the DMIOOO system [1] concluded that achievement of that rate with simulants of projected WTP melter feeds (AZ-101 and C-106/AY-102) was unlikely without the use of bubblers. As part of those tests, the same feed that was used during the cold-commissioning of the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) HLW vitrification system was run on the DM1000 system. The DM1000 tests reproduced the rates that were obtained at the

  17. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  18. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DENVER, CO WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT ACTIVITIES ACTIVITIES O.W. EATON MANAGER, EXTERNAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OPENING OF NEW ROUTES COMPLIANCE WITH PUBLIC LAW 102 579 WIPP LANDWITHDRAWL 102-579 WIPP LANDWITHDRAWL ACT OF 1992 1082 EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TRAINED IN 2010 *MERRTT 1082 EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TRAINED IN 2010 MERRTT *INCIDENT COMMAND SYSTEM *HOSPITAL PREPAREDNESS *HOSPITAL PREPAREDNESS *MEDICAL EXAMINER DISPATCHER (BETA) *DISPATCHER (BETA) RADIOLOGICAL TRAINING RADIOLOGICAL TRAINING FOR FOR

  19. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  20. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  1. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  2. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... day-ahead wind generation forecasts yields an average of 195M savings in annual operating costs. Figure 6 shows how operating cost savings vary with improvements in forecasting. ...

  3. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  4. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Subcontracting / Subcontracting Forecasts / UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities

  5. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  6. Brazil advances subsea technology in Marlim pilot

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-29

    Petroleum Brasileiro SA has extended several water depth records for subsea technology during a pilot project in giant Marlim oil field in the Campos basin off Brazil. Petrobras finished the 10 well Marlim pilot last December. The field's pilot phase was intended to begin early production and enable Petrobras to gather more reservoir data. Ten satellite wells, including two prepilot wells, were completed during the Marlim pilot phase with guidelineless (GLL) wet christmas trees designed and fabricated by FMC Corp., Houston, and CBV Industrial Mechanic SA, Rio de Janeiro. The subsea wells are producing 52,000 b/d of oil and 21.19 MMCfd of gas in water depths of 1,847-2,562 ft. Marlim pilot well flow is routed to a permanent semisubmersible floating production system (FPS). Oil moves from the FPS to a monobuoy that offloads to a shuttle tanker. In addition to marking the first successful uses of purpose-built GLL wet trees, FMC said the Marlim pilot project allowed GLL subsea technology to evolve from conceptual status into a proven deepwater completion method. The paper describes the project.

  7. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  8. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, ...

  9. Development and pilot test of an intensive municipal solid waste recycling system for the Town of East Hampton

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Commoner, B.; Frisch, M.; Pitot, H.A.; Quigley, J.; Stege, A.; Wallace, D.; Webster, T.

    1990-02-01

    This report presents the results of a project to design and test a new type of trash disposal system for the Town of East Hampton, Long Island: the Intensive Recycling System. The system is intended to serve as the Town's primary means of regular trash disposal. The Intensive Recycling System is based on separation of regular trash, by household and commercial establishments, into four fractions: (1) food garbage and soiled paper; (2) paper/cardboard; (3) metal cans/glass bottles; (4) non-recyclables. Fraction 1, together with yard waste, is processed at a compost facility, yielding marketable compost. Fractions 2 and 3 are processed by a materials recovery facility (MRF) into marketable products: several grades of paper and cardboard; aluminum cans; tin cans; scrap metal; and color-sorted crushed glass (cullet). The non-recyclable components (fraction 4) and misclassified components rejected during processing are consigned to a landfill. This document is Volume 2 of two volumes and contains the appendix for Volume 1.

  10. Development and pilot test of an intensive municipal solid waste recycling system for the Town of East Hampton

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Commoner, B.; Frisch, M.; Pitot, H.A.; Quigley, J.; Stege, A.; Wallace, D.; Webster, T.

    1990-02-01

    This report presents the results of a project to design and test a new type of trash disposal system for the Town of East Hampton, Long Island: the Intensive Recycling System. The system is intended to serve as the Town's primary means of regular trash disposal. The Intensive Recycling System is based on separation of regular trash, by households and commercial establishments, into four fractions: (1) food garbage and soiled paper; (2) paper/cardboard; (3) metal cans/glass bottles; (4) non-recyclables. Fraction 1, together with yard waste, is processed at a compost facility, yielding marketable compost. Fractions 2 and 3 are processed by a materials recovery facility (MRF) into marketable products: several grades of paper and cardboard; aluminum cans; tin cans; scrap metal; and color-sorted crushed glass (cullet). The non-recyclable components (fraction 4) and misclassified components rejected during processing are consigned to a landfill. This document is Volume 1 of two volumes. 75 refs., 24 figs., 81 tabs.

  11. ARM - LASSO Pilot Project Timeline

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Timeline LASSO Information LASSO Home LASSO Backgrounder Pilot Phase Begins for Routine Large-Eddy Simulations Pilot Project Timeline Presentations News Science LASSO Implementation Strategy LASSO Pilot Project Releases Related Information ARM Decadal Vision Archive of LASSO Information e-mail list Contacts William Gustafson, Lead Principal Investigator Andrew Vogelmann, Co-Principal Investigator Hanna Goss, Media Contact LASSO Pilot Project Timeline As the pilot phase progresses toward

  12. Renewable Energy Pilot Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The pilot program has two major components: the Research Component and the Request for Proposal (RFP) Component. The RFP component has been concluded but companies continue to report in Docket No...

  13. Water Cycle Pilot Study

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1 Water Cycle Pilot Study To learn more about Earth's water cycle, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a multi-laboratory science team representing five DOE ...

  14. Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - December 2014 Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - December 2014 December, 2014 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant ...

  15. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  16. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  17. NSTAR Smart Grid Pilot

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rabari, Anil; Fadipe, Oloruntomi

    2014-03-31

    NSTAR Electric & Gas Corporation (“the Company”, or “NSTAR”) developed and implemented a Smart Grid pilot program beginning in 2010 to demonstrate the viability of leveraging existing automated meter reading (“AMR”) deployments to provide much of the Smart Grid functionality of advanced metering infrastructure (“AMI”), but without the large capital investment that AMI rollouts typically entail. In particular, a central objective of the Smart Energy Pilot was to enable residential dynamic pricing (time-of-use “TOU” and critical peak rates and rebates) and two-way direct load control (“DLC”) by continually capturing AMR meter data transmissions and communicating through customer-sited broadband connections in conjunction with a standardsbased home area network (“HAN”). The pilot was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (“DOE”) through the Smart Grid Demonstration program. NSTAR was very pleased to not only receive the funding support from DOE, but the guidance and support of the DOE throughout the pilot. NSTAR is also pleased to report to the DOE that it was able to execute and deliver a successful pilot on time and on budget. NSTAR looks for future opportunities to work with the DOE and others in future smart grid projects.

  18. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This...

  19. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    4-3542 Site Sustainability Plan Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Fiscal Year 2015 Narrative November 2014 Office of Site Operations Carlsbad Field Office U.S. Department of Energy Approved By: //signature on file// 12/30/14 Jose R. Franco, Date Manager, Carlsbad Field Office Site Sustainability Plan Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Fiscal Year 2015 Narrative DOE/WIPP-14-3542 Page 2 of 48 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 TABLE 1. DOE Goal Summary Table 6 II. PERFORMANCE REVIEW AND PLAN NARRATIVE

  20. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  1. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  2. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications » Market Studies » LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly

  3. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2013-09-27

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  4. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2014-06-10

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  6. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  7. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  8. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  9. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  10. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  11. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  13. Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot Phase 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Homan, Gregory; Anderson, Robert; Hernandez, John

    2015-04-01

    The Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot - Phase 2 (IRM2) was designed to study the feasibility of demand-side resources to participate into the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) wholesale market as proxy demand resources (PDR). The pilot study focused on understanding the issues related with direct participation of third-parties and customers including customer acceptance; market transformation challenges (wholesale market, technology); technical and operational feasibility; and value to the rate payers, DR resource owners and the utility on providing an enabling mechanism for DR resources into the wholesale markets. The customer had the option of committing to either three contiguous hour blocks for 24 days or six contiguous hours for 12 days a month with day-ahead notification that aligned with the CAISO integrated forward market. As a result of their being available, the customer was paid $10/ kilowatt (kW)-month for capacity in addition to CAISO energy settlements. The participants were limited to no more than a 2 megawatt (MW) capacity with a six-month commitment. Four participants successfully engaged in the pilot. In this report, we provide the description of the pilot, participant performance results, costs and value to participants as well as outline some of the issues encountered through the pilot. Results show that participants chose to participate with storage and the value of CAISO settlements were significantly lower than the capacity payments provided by the utility as incentive payments. In addition, this pilot revealed issues both on the participant side and system operations side. These issues are summarized in the report.The Intermittent Renewable Management Pilot - Phase 2 (IRM2) was designed to study the feasibility of demand-side resources to participate into the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) wholesale market as proxy demand resources (PDR). The pilot study focused on understanding the issues related with

  14. Impact Pilots | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Impact Pilots Impact Pilots Dr. David Danielson announces that NREL will be the leading lab of a newly funded Lab-Corps Pilot program Dr. David Danielson announces that NREL will be the leading lab of a newly funded Lab-Corps Pilot program Dr. David Danielson, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy announces that NREL will be the Leading lab of a newly funded Lab Core Pilot program, at a keynote speech at the 27th Industry Growth Forum in

  15. Pilot Study to Confirm that Fat and Liver can be Distinguished by Spectroscopic Tissue Response on a Medipix-All-Resolution System-CT (MARS-CT)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berg, Kyra B.; Anderson, Nigel G.; Butler, Alexandra P.; Carr, James M.; Clark, Michael J.; Cook, Nick J.; Scott, Nicola J.; Butler, Philip H.; Butler, Anthony P.

    2009-07-23

    NAFLD, liver component of the 'metabolic' syndrome, has become the most common liver disease in western nations. Non-invasive imaging techniques exist, but have limitations, especially in detection and quantification of mild to moderate fatty liver. In this pilot study, we produced attenuation curves from biomedical-quality projection images of liver and fat using the MARS spectroscopic-CT scanner. Difficulties obtaining attenuation spectra after reconstruction demonstrated that standard reconstruction programs do not preserve spectral information.

  16. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  17. Assessment of allowance mechanism China's carbon trading pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-28

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  18. Assessment of Allowance Mechanismin China's Carbon Trading Pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-01

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  19. Development of 1000kW-class MCFC pilot plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ooue, M.; Yasue, H.; Takasu, K.; Tsuchitori, T.

    1996-12-31

    This pilot plant is a part of the New Sunshine Program which has proceeded by the Agency of Industrial Science and Technology of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. MCFC Research Association is entrusted with the development of the pilot plant, and constructing it at Kawagoe site. Following items will be verified by this pilot plant operation. (a) Development of 250kW class stack and confirmation of stack performance and decay rate. (b) System verification such as basic process, control system and operation characteristics, toward commercialization. (c) To get design data for demonstration plant.

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  1. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  2. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  3. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  4. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Plans and Reports WIPP Recovery Plan The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Recovery Plan outlines the necessary steps to resume limited waste disposal operations in the first quarter of calendar year 2016. WIPP operations were suspended following an underground truck fire and a radiological release in February 2014. The recovery plan was issued on Sept. 30, 2014. Key elements of the recovery plan include strengthening safety programs, regulatory compliance, decontamination of the underground,

  6. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Protective Actions Actions to Protect Workers, Public and the Environment The February 14 radioactivity release was a watershed event for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). It was the first accident of its kind in the 15-year operating history of the transuranic nuclear waste repository. No workers were underground when the release occurred. There were 11 workers on the night shift at the time of the release and two additional employees entered the site in response to the accident. These 13

  7. Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Provides an overview of the Cleveland Energyaver Pilot Program aimed at reducing barriers to widespread adoption of residential energy efficient retrofits. From the Residential ...

  8. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  9. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christenson, Norm; Walters, Jerel

    2014-12-31

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 2b of the SkyMine® Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO2 from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO2 to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO2 capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to the point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and deployment. The overall process is carbon negative, resulting in mineralization of CO2 that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at the commercial scale. The project is being conducted in two phases. The primary objectives of Phase 1 were to evaluate proven SkyMine® process chemistry for commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2, complete a NEPA evaluation, and develop a comprehensive carbon life cycle analysis. The objective of Phase 2b was to build the pilot plant to be operated and tested in Phase 2c.

  10. ARM - LASSO Pilot Project Releases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Releases Alpha 1 Links Primary Documentation File Contents Acknowledgements Evaluation Product Files Bundle Browser LASSO Information LASSO Home LASSO Backgrounder Pilot Phase Begins for Routine Large-Eddy Simulations Pilot Project Timeline Presentations News Science LASSO Implementation Strategy LASSO Pilot Project Releases Related Information ARM Decadal Vision Archive of LASSO Information e-mail list Contacts William Gustafson, Lead Principal Investigator Andrew Vogelmann, Co-Principal

  11. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  12. Pilot Project: Nuclear Safety Information Dashboard | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Pilot Project: Nuclear Safety Information Dashboard Pilot Project: Nuclear Safety Information Dashboard The Nuclear Safety Information (NSI) Dashboard provides a new user interface to the Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) to easily identify, organize, and analyze nuclear safety-related events reported into ORPS. The NSI Dashboard displays information developed from occurrence information reported into DOE's ORPS database. Events or conditions associated with nuclear safety are

  13. NNSA's Asset Management Program Completes First Pilot | National Nuclear

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Security Administration | (NNSA) NNSA's Asset Management Program Completes First Pilot December 22, 2015 Asset Management Program implementation team. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) today announced completion of a $520k pilot to replace a roof, as well as heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) system for the Core Library and Data Center at Mercury, Nevada (http://nevada.usgs.gov/mercury/). The library was established as a repository for geologic, hydrologic, and

  14. Petrel: Data Management and Sharing Pilot | Argonne Leadership Computing

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Facility Projects bgclang Compiler Cobalt Scheduler GLEAN Petrel Swift Petrel: Data Management and Sharing Pilot The Petrel Data Service pilot provides a mechanism for Argonne researchers and ALCF users to store their data and trivially share with collaborators, without the burden of local account management. This system has been developed and is being operated via collaboration between Argonne Leadership Computing Facility and Globus team. Petrel leverages storage and infrastructure

  15. Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories with

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Clean Energy Small Businesses | Department of Energy Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories with Clean Energy Small Businesses Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories with Clean Energy Small Businesses March 25, 2015 - 11:00am Addthis Researcher Kenny Gruchalla (right) explains the 3-D Visualization technology to U.S. Department of Energy Deputy Secretary Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall in the Energy Systems Integration facility (ESIF) at the

  16. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  17. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2/25/16 WIPP Home Page About WIPP Contact Us Search About WIPP The nation's only deep geologic repository for nuclear waste The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of a specific type of waste that is the byproduct of the nation's nuclear defense program. CH and RH Waste WIPP is the nation's only repository for the disposal of nuclear waste known as transuranic, or TRU, waste. It consists of clothing, tools,

  18. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    What happened at WIPP in February 2014 Burned Truck Salt hauling truck after the fire Two isolated events took place at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in February. On February 5, a salt haul truck caught fire. Workers were evacuated, and the underground portion of WIPP was shut down. Six workers were treated for smoke inhalation. Nine days later, late in the evening of February 14, a second, unrelated event occurred when a continuous air monitor (CAM) alarmed during the night shift. Only

  19. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  20. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  2. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  3. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting. | Department of Energy 0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. (297.93 KB) More Documents & Publications Future Power Systems 21 - The Smart Customer Smart Grid R&D Multi-Year Program Plan (2010-2014) - September 2011 Update

  4. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  5. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  6. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Transportation Security Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security (2.41 MB) More Documents & Publications Enterprise ...

  7. Sandia Energy - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Home Analysis A photo of Drum 68660 during the WIPP incident investigation. Permalink Gallery Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Technical Assessment Report...

  8. New Small Business Voucher Pilot Opens

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Twitter Google + Vimeo Newsletter Signup SlideShare New Small Business Voucher Pilot Opens ... Energy, Water Power, Wind EnergyNew Small Business Voucher Pilot Opens Previous ...

  9. Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The forecast calls for flu The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information about how disease develops and spreads, a research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. January 15, 2016 Forecasting flu A team from Los Alamos has developed a method to predict flu outbreaks based in part on influenza-related searches of Wikipedia. The forecast calls for flu Beyond the familiar flu,

  10. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  11. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  12. FINAL REPORT START-UP AND COMMISSIONING TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-01R0100-2 REV 0 1/20/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BRANDYS M; WILSON CN; SCHATZ TR; GONG W; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from commissioning tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM 1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part BI [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plan. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Report. The DM1200 system will be used for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. This will include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The results presented in this report are from the initial series of short-duration tests that were conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system prior to conducting the main body of development tests that have been planned for this system. These tests were directed primarily at system 'debugging,' operator training, and procedure refinement. The AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing was selected for these tests.

  13. Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2012-06-01

    This fact sheet provides information about Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant capabilities and resources at NREL.

  14. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | June 2007 Salt Disposal Investigations Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | June 2007 Salt Disposal Investigations The mission of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant site is to provide permanent, underground disposal of TRU and TRU-mixed wastes (wastes that also have hazardous chemical components). TRU waste consists of clothing, tools, and debris left from the research and production of nuclear weapons. TRU waste is

  15. Monument Valley Phytoremediation Pilot Study:

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    1.8 U.S. Department of Energy UMTRA Ground Water Project Monument Valley Ground Water Remediation Work Plan: Native Plant Farming and Phytoremediation Pilot Study August 1998 ...

  16. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joe Jones; Clive Barton; Mark Clayton; Al Yablonsky; David Legere

    2010-09-30

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 1 of the SkyMine{reg_sign} Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO{sub 2} from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO{sub 2} to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO{sub 2} capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to a point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and proliferation. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at commercial scale. The primary objectives of Phase 1 of the project were to elaborate proven SkyMine{reg_sign} process chemistry to commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design ('Reference Plant Design') for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2. Additionally, during Phase 1, information necessary to inform a DOE determination regarding NEPA requirements for the project was developed, and a comprehensive carbon lifecycle analysis was completed. These items were included in the formal application for funding under Phase 2. All Phase 1 objectives were successfully met on schedule and within budget.

  17. Pilot-plant automation for catalytic hydrotreating of heavy residua

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akimoto, O.; Iwamoto, Y.; Kodama, S.; Takeuchi, C.

    1983-08-01

    The research and development center of Chiyoda Chemical Engineering and Construction Co. has been investigating the catalytic hydrotreating of heavy residua via pilot plant technology. Chiyoda's 52 microreactors. bench-scale test units and pilot plants are each used depending on the purpose of the process development for heavy oil upgrading. The microreactors are effective for catalyst screening. Heavier fractions such as asphaltene and sludge materials often disturbed steady state operation. Many unique devices for the test units and improvement of operation procedures make extended operation easy as well as increasing reliability. The computerized data acquisition and data filing systems minimize the work not only for operators but for all research personnel. Currently, about 40 pilot plant units are continuously running while the others are in preparation. Fully automated operation requires only three for data checking at night. In the daytime, seven operators take care of feed supply, product removal and condition changes. For start-up and shut-down, one operator can handle three microreactos, but only one bench-scale unit or pilot plant. Planning is underway for an improved start-up system for the pilot plants using personal computers. This system automatically sets feed rate and raises reactor temperature. (JMT)

  18. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  19. Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent Program) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent Program) Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent Program) Provides an overview of the Cleveland Energy$aver Pilot Program aimed at reducing barriers to widespread adoption of residential energy efficient retrofits. From the Residential Energy Efficiency Solutions Conference 2012. Cleveland Energy$aver Pilot Program (1.41 MB) More Documents & Publications CX-005205: Categorical Exclusion

  20. Texas Offshore Pilot Research Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Pilot Research Project Jump to: navigation, search Name Texas Offshore Pilot Research Project Facility Texas Offshore Pilot Research Project Sector Wind energy Facility...

  1. Michigan Offshore Wind Pilot Project | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Michigan Offshore Wind Pilot Project Jump to: navigation, search Name Michigan Offshore Wind Pilot Project Facility Michigan Offshore Wind Pilot Project Sector Wind energy Facility...

  2. Cambodia-Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Cambodia-Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Name Cambodia-Pilot Program for Climate...

  3. Algenol Biofuels Inc., Integrated Pilot-Scale Biorefinery | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Algenol Biofuels Inc., Integrated Pilot-Scale Biorefinery Algenol Biofuels Inc., Integrated Pilot-Scale Biorefinery Algenol Biofuels Inc., will create a pilot-scale biorefinery ...

  4. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Isolation Pilot Plant Activites Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites (1.08 MB) More Documents & Publications EIS-0026: 2010 Annual Mitigation ...

  5. Hydrogen Pilot Project Wind Farm | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Pilot Project Wind Farm Jump to: navigation, search Name Hydrogen Pilot Project Wind Farm Facility Hydrogen Pilot Project Sector Wind energy Facility Type Small Scale Wind Facility...

  6. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  7. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  8. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  9. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  11. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  13. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  14. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  16. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  18. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  19. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE conducted its first pilot test of the Asset Score in 2012. Findings from that pilot led to improvements in the overall program and the Asset Scoring Tool. The tool was updated to include the...

  20. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) hosted a series of webinars for interested Pilot Participants to review requirements for participating in the 2013 Pilot and on how to use the Asset Scoring Tool. 

  1. HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    1 HUD may extend the duration of the pilot program beyond the two-year pilot for a fuller assessment of the performance of PowerSaver. 2 The terms home energy upgrade and home...

  2. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Score 2013 Pilot Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot This webinar covers the overall objectives of the 2013 Pilot and the process for pilot participation. asset_score_pilot_overview_webinar_061713.wmv (31.87 MB) More Documents & Publications Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot Asset Score API Webinar June 14, 2013

  3. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Operators prepare drums of contact-handled transuranic waste for loading into transportation containers Operators prepare drums of contact-handled transuranic waste for loading into transportation containers A transuranic waste shipment travels on an approved shipping route to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant A transuranic waste shipment travels on an approved shipping route to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Operators prepare drums of

  4. Pilot Application to Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A Screening Method for Guiding R&D Decisions: Pilot Application to Screen Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

  5. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  6. Jamaica National Net-Billing Pilot Program Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doris, Elizabeth; Stout, Sherry; Peterson, Kimberly

    2015-12-18

    This technical report discusses the effectiveness of the Jamaica Public Service Company Limited Net-Billing Pilot Program. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collected and analyzed data from a wide range of stakeholders, conducted in-country research, and compared program elements to common interconnection practices to form programmatic recommendations for the Jamaica context. NREL finds that the net-billing pilot program has successfully contributed to the support of the emerging solar market in Jamaica with the interconnection of 80 systems under the program for a total of 1.38 megawatts (MW) at the time of original analysis.

  7. Hydrogen Fuel Pilot Plant and Hydrogen ICE Vehicle Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Francfort

    2005-03-01

    The U.S. Department Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA) teamed with Electric Transportation Applications (ETA) and Arizona Public Service (APS) to develop the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant that produces and compresses hydrogen on site through an electrolysis process by operating a PEM fuel cell in reverse; natural gas is also compressed onsite. The Pilot Plant dispenses 100% hydrogen, 15 to 50% blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas (H/CNG), and 100% CNG via a credit card billing system at pressures up to 5,000 psi. Thirty internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (including Daimler Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles) are operating on 100% hydrogen and 15 to 50% H/CNG blends. Since the Pilot Plant started operating in June 2002, they hydrogen and H/CNG ICE vehicels have accumulated 250,000 test miles.

  8. Design considerations for heavy oil in situ pilots

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peachey, B.R.; Nodwell, J.A.

    1982-01-01

    Although the primary objectives of heavy oil in situ pilots are reservoir oriented in terms of production rate and recovery efficiency, considerable development of surface engineering technology is a necessary aspect of pilot operations. Esso's basic design philosophy is to use state-of-the-art technology with onsite operator interaction to sequentially develop improvements in surface equipment and processes without comprising reservoir based research objectives. This work reviews Esso's operating experience and technical developments in pilot design at Cold Lake, Alta. The considerations which led to the design basis for the Cold Lake commercial project are examined in the areas of well layout, steam and production distribution system design, oil and water separation, and produced water treatment.

  9. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  10. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Havens Increases WIPP Underground Safety November 12, 2015 - WIPP Conducts Limited Scope Performance Tests October Updates October 22, 2015 - WIPP Interim Ventilation System...

  11. Pilot-plant automation for catalytic hydrotreating of heavy residua

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Akimoto, O.; Iwamoto, Y.; Kodama, S.; Takeuchi, C.

    1983-08-01

    Chiyoda's 52 microreactors, bench-scale test units and pilot plants are each used depending on the purpose of the process development for heavy oil upgrading. The microreactors are effective for catalyst screening. Heavier fractions such as asphaltene and sludge materials often disturbed steady state operation. Many unique devices for the test units and improvement of operation procedures make extended operation easy as well as increasing reliability. The computerized data acquisition and data filing systems minimize the work not only for operators but for all research personnel. Currently, about 40 pilot plant units are continuously running while the others are in preparation. Fully automated operation requires only three for data checking at night. In the daytime, seven operators take care of feed supply, product removal and condition changes. For start-up and shut-down, one operator can handle three microreactors, but only one bench-scale unit or pilot plant. Planning is underway for an improved start-up system for the pilot plants using personal computers. This system automatically sets feed rate and raises reactor temperature.

  12. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  13. US/Brazil joint pilot project objectives

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    This paper describes a joint US/Brazil pilot project for rural electrification, whose major goals are: to establish technical, institutional, and economic confidence in using renewable energy (PV and wind) to meet the needs of the citizens of rural Brazil; to establish on-going institutional, individual and business relationships necessary to implement sustainable programs and commitments; to lay the groundwork for larger scale rural electrification through the use of distributed renewable technologies. The projects have supported low power home lighting systems, lighting and refrigeration for schools and medical centers, and water pumping systems. This is viewed as a long term project, where much of the equipment will come from the US, but Brazil will be responsible for program management, and sharing data gained from the program. The paper describes in detail the Brazilian program which was instituted to support this phased project.

  14. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  15. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  16. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  17. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  18. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  19. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  2. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  3. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  5. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... RIT forecasting is saving costs and improving operational practices for IPC and helping integrate wind power more efficiently and cost effectively. Figure 3 shows how the ...

  6. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Cost Assignment - Only a few respondents partly or fully recover forecasting costs from variable generators. Many simply absorb the costs, possibly viewing them as relatively ...

  7. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... The licensing arrangement helps to facilitate transfer of the statistical learning algorithms developed in the project to industry use. A leading forecast provider in the United ...

  8. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  9. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  10. Pilot Scale Advanced Fogging Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demmer, Rick L.; Fox, Don T.; Archiblad, Kip E.

    2015-01-01

    Experiments in 2006 developed a useful fog solution using three different chemical constituents. Optimization of the fog recipe and use of commercially available equipment were identified as needs that had not been addressed. During 2012 development work it was noted that low concentrations of the components hampered coverage and drying in the United Kingdom’s National Nuclear Laboratory’s testing much more so than was evident in the 2006 tests. In fiscal year 2014 the Idaho National Laboratory undertook a systematic optimization of the fogging formulation and conducted a non-radioactive, pilot scale demonstration using commercially available fogging equipment. While not as sophisticated as the equipment used in earlier testing, the new approach is much less expensive and readily available for smaller scale operations. Pilot scale testing was important to validate new equipment of an appropriate scale, optimize the chemistry of the fogging solution, and to realize the conceptual approach.