Sample records for forecast system pilot

  1. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  2. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  3. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  4. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  5. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  6. Pilot Systems | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov YouKizildere I Geothermal PwerPerkins County, Nebraska: Energy ResourcesPicketGeothermal Project Jump to:Pilot PeakW4 4PH

  7. Decision Support System for Fighter Pilots

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    parts of the electronic warfare domain. A brief description of this domain is given. It contains is detected the pilot may choose to deploy electronic countermeasures to avoid the impact of the missile, and the availability of countermeasures. Radar systems, guidance of missiles, and electronic countermeasures are all

  8. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  9. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  10. Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bertram-Howery, S.G.; Marietta, M.G.; Anderson, D.R.; Gomez, L.S.; Rechard, R.P. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Brinster, K.F.; Guzowski, R.V. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The United States Department of Energy is planning to dispose of transuranic wastes, which have been generated by defense programs, at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The WIPP Project will assess compliance with the requirements of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. This report forecasts the planned 1992 document, Comparison to 40 CFR, Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). 130 refs., 36 figs., 11 tabs.

  11. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  12. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  13. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  14. THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE; APPLICATIONS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project

  15. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  16. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  17. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and Energy Reliability As part of Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Under Task 3.1: Photovoltaic Systems Reliability Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Hawai`i Energy Sustainability Program Subtask 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation

  18. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  19. An evaluation of the management system verification pilot at Hanford

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BRIGGS, C.R.

    1998-11-12T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chemical Management System (CMS), currently under development at Hanford, was used as the ''test program'' for pilot testing the value added aspects of the Chemical Manufacturers Association's (CMA) Management Systems Verification (MSV) process. The MSV process, which was developed by CMA's member chemical companies specifically as a tool to assist in the continuous improvement of environment, safety and health (ESH) performance, represents a commercial sector ''best practice'' for evaluating ESH management systems. The primary purpose of Hanford's MSV Pilot was to evaluate the applicability and utility of the MSV process in the Department of Energy (DOE) environment. However, because the Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) is the framework for ESH management at Hanford and at all DOE sites, the pilot specifically considered the MSV process in the context of a possible future adjunct to Integrated Safety Management System Verification (ISMSV) efforts at Hanford and elsewhere within the DOE complex. The pilot involved the conduct of two-hour interviews with four separate panels of individuals with functional responsibilities related to the CMS including the Department of Energy Richland Operations (DOE-RL), Fluor Daniel Hanford (FDH) and FDH's major subcontractors (MSCS). A semi-structured interview process was employed by the team of three ''verifiers'' who directed open-ended questions to the panels regarding the development, integration and effectiveness of management systems necessary to ensure the sustainability of the CMS effort. An ''MSV Pilot Effectiveness Survey'' also was completed by each panel participant immediately following the interview.

  20. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  1. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  2. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 4 report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.; Hadder, G.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

    1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Navy's Maritime Strategy is designed to maintain military readiness and the ability to operate in all major theaters of the world. Mobility fuels required for sea, air, and land operations are vital components of the Navy's peacetime and wartime strategies. The purpose of the Navy's Mobility Fuels Technology Program is to understand fuel supply and fuel property impacts on Navy equipment performance and fleet readiness and operations. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has assisted the Department of Navy in developing and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel availability, quality, and relative price, as well as evaluating options to increase fuel supplies during world oil supply disruptions. Publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the foundation of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The NMFFS was enhanced as ORNL reviewed data on world oil reserves, production and prices, trends in crude oil and refined product quality, and changes in refinery process technology. The system was used to analyze the availability, quality, and relative price of military fuels that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refining regions under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and two hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in the year 1995. 25 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  3. Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems

  4. Experiments and a model of pilot system failure detection during simulated Lunar landing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaderka, Justin David

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Future complex systems, such as those found in piloted aircraft and spacecraft, will undoubtedly utilize significant automation to enhance pilot capabilities and enable novel mission scenarios. Off-nominal conditions may ...

  5. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. This information is then applied to stitch images together into largermore »views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  6. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system. Phase II, report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Vineyard, T.A.; Das, S.; Lee, R.

    1986-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's fuel use strategy and the Mobility Fuels Technology Program. Until recently, there has been a long-term decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets and a shift in refinery capacities domestically and worldwide. Three publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) and diesel fuel (F-76) that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refinery regions under business-as-usual and four hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in 1990. The results from the study indicate that jet fuel availability could be reduced in some refinery regions under the disruptions studied. Various strategies were investigated for increasing JP-5 production during the disruptions. In general, the availability of JP-5 was more limited than F-76 under the disruption cases studied; however, in all cases one or more strategies were identified to increase refinery output of JP-5 in all study regions. Based on the four hypothetical disruption scenarios studied, the analysis suggested tat JP-5 production could be increased by relaxing the smoke point, freezing point, flash point, and by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel in the study regions. A more complete analysis of navy mobility fuel trends, as well as several changes in the models to make them easier to use in fuel planning and forecastig studies, are planned as part of the third phase of this program.

  7. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev HeinemannH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systems and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

  8. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  9. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  10. NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Guebuem

    NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

  11. Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    Emissions of crustal material in air quality forecast systems: Use of satellite observations) Natural (dust, fires, volcanos) Meteorology: Transport, turbulence Clouds and radiation, precipitations Chemistry-transport model Gas and particles concentrations Use of model outputs: Analysis Direct: model vs

  12. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  13. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  14. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  16. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS: The contribution of power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly of the electricity grids and for energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output

  17. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  18. Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time-Invariant Dynamic Systems with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xiang, Yang

    . Alternatively, time series are represented by state-space models, also referred to as multivariate dynamic and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time to a discrete time, multivariate time series [1, 2]. The primary inference that we address is one- step

  19. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  20. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  1. Extending safety assessment methods for remotely piloted aircraft operations in the national airspace system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horrell, Alexander C. (Alexander Chapman)

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Remotely Piloted Aircraft operations are growing rapidly in the United States specifically for the Department of Defense to achieve training needs. To ensure the safety of the National Airspace System is maintained to a ...

  2. Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ducatelle, Frederick

    Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area for secure operation, management of modern power systems and electricity production in the power generation

  3. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time period January 1, 2003 through March 31, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the sixth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the pilot unit with three catalysts, conducting catalyst activity measurements, and procuring the fourth catalyst, all for the GRE Coal Creek pilot unit site. Laboratory efforts were also conducted to support catalyst selection for the second pilot unit site, at CPS' Spruce Plant. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  4. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time-period April 1, 2003 through June 30, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the seventh full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the first pilot unit, conducting catalyst activity measurements, installing sonic horns for on-line catalyst cleaning, and installing the fourth catalyst, all for the GRE Coal Creek site. CPS began installation of the second mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit at their Spruce Plant during the quarter. Laboratory efforts were conducted to support catalyst selection for that second pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  5. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  6. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-10-04T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period July 1, 2002 through September 30, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The coprecipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the fourth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to completing, installing and starting up the pilot unit, completing laboratory runs to size catalysts, and procuring catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  7. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-07-17T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period April 1, 2002 through June 30, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the third full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to constructing the pilot unit and conducting laboratory runs to help size catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these two efforts.

  8. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-01-21T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period October 1, 2002 through December 31, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future fullscale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the fifth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included starting up the pilot unit with three catalysts at the first site, conducting catalyst activity measurements, completing comprehensive flue gas sampling and analyses, and procuring additional catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  9. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2006-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems'', during the time-period January 1 through March 31, 2006. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, and the use of a wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system downstream to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project is being co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory, EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Generation Company LP, the Southern Company, and Duke Energy. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified catalyst materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months or longer at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests are being conducted periodically at each site to confirm the ability to scrub the catalytically oxidized mercury at high efficiency. This is the ninth reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts primarily consisted of operating the catalyst pilot units at the TXU Generation Company LP's Monticello Steam Electric Station and at Georgia Power's Plant Yates. Two catalyst activity measurement trips were made to Plant Yates during the quarter. This Technical Progress Report presents catalyst activity results from the oxidation catalyst pilot unit at Plant Yates and discusses the status of the pilot unit at Monticello.

  10. Hydraulically actuated fuel injector including a pilot operated spool valve assembly and hydraulic system using same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shafer, Scott F. (Morton, IL)

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The present invention relates to hydraulic systems including hydraulically actuated fuel injectors that have a pilot operated spool valve assembly. One class of hydraulically actuated fuel injectors includes a solenoid driven pilot valve that controls the initiation of the injection event. However, during cold start conditions, hydraulic fluid, typically engine lubricating oil, is particularly viscous and is often difficult to displace through the relatively small drain path that is defined past the pilot valve member. Because the spool valve typically responds slower than expected during cold start due to the difficulty in displacing the relatively viscous oil, accurate start of injection timing can be difficult to achieve. There also exists a greater difficulty in reaching the higher end of the cold operating speed range. Therefore, the present invention utilizes a fluid evacuation valve to aid in displacement of the relatively viscous oil during cold start conditions.

  11. SOLARIZE RALEIGH PILOT PROGRAM DRAFT Request for Proposals from Installers of Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar photovoltaic ("PV") installation companies ("Installer(s)") or teams of installation companiesSOLARIZE RALEIGH PILOT PROGRAM DRAFT Request for Proposals from Installers of Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems Proposed Posting Date: February 4, 2014 I. OPPORTUNITY SUMMARY: The North Carolina Solar

  12. Project ID: 35011 Title: The Floating Net Pen Transportation System Pilot Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Project ID: 35011 Title: The Floating Net Pen Transportation System Pilot Project Sponsor: Columbia sufficient. The proposal does not specify what benefits might be expected from use of net pens relative raceways or other sources to the net pens is discussed in the proposal. The reviewers are aware

  13. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary Blythe; Conor Braman; Katherine Dombrowski; Tom Machalek

    2010-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This document is the final technical report for Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, 'Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,' which was conducted over the time-period January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2010. The objective of this project has been to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid catalysts and/or fixed-structure mercury sorbents to promote the removal of total mercury and oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, followed by wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project was co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL), EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Energy (now called Luminant), Southern Company, Salt River Project (SRP) and Duke Energy. URS Group was the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses fixed-structure sorbents and/or catalysts to promote the removal of total mercury and/or oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury not adsorbed is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The project has tested candidate materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. Pilot-scale catalytic oxidation tests have been completed for periods of approximately 14 to19 months at three sites, with an additional round of pilot-scale fixed-structure sorbent tests being conducted at one of those sites. Additionally, pilot-scale wet FGD tests have been conducted downstream of mercury oxidation catalysts at a total of four sites. The sites include the two of three sites from this project and two sites where catalytic oxidation pilot testing was conducted as part of a previous DOE-NETL project. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests were also conducted at a fifth site, but with no catalyst or fixed-structure mercury sorbent upstream. This final report presents and discusses detailed results from all of these efforts, and makes a number of conclusions about what was learned through these efforts.

  14. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time-period July 1, 2003 through September 30, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the eighth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the first pilot unit at the GRE Coal Creek site with all four catalysts in service and sonic horns installed for on-line catalyst cleaning. During the quarter, a catalyst activity measurement trip and mercury SCEM relative accuracy tests were completed, and catalyst pressure drop was closely monitored with the sonic horns in operation. CPS completed the installation of the second mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit at their Spruce Plant during the quarter, and the four catalysts to be tested in that unit were ordered. The pilot unit was started up with two of the four catalysts in service late in August, and initial catalyst activity results were measured in late September. The other two catalysts will not become available for testing until sometime in October. This technical progress report details these efforts at both sites.

  15. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  16. Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

  17. Pilot States Program report: Home energy ratings systems and energy-efficient mortgages

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farhar, B.

    2000-04-04T23:59:59.000Z

    This report covers the accomplishments of the home energy ratings systems/energy-efficient mortgages (HERS/EEMs) pilot states from 1993 through 1998, including such indicators as funding, ratings and EEMs achieved, active raters, and training and marketing activities. A brief description of each HERS program's evolution is included, as well as their directors' views of the programs' future prospects. Finally, an analysis is provided of successful HERS program characteristics and factors that appear to contribute to HERS program success.

  18. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period January 1, 2002 through March 31, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the second full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to pilot unit design and conducting laboratory runs to help select candidate catalysts. This technical progress report provides an update on these two efforts. A Test Plan for the upcoming pilot-scale evaluations was also prepared and submitted to NETL for review and comment. Since this document was already submitted under separate cover, this information is not repeated here.

  19. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  20. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  1. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  2. Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bray, Rebecca Anne

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis documents the results and studies conducted when determining the accuracy of the Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) methodology of forecasting future levels of traffic demand. The data that was used was the Federal Highway...

  3. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the first full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to project initiation and planning. There is no significant technical progress to report for the current period.

  4. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  5. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  7. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  8. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  9. Probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)]|[Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Hoover Institution

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In its most recent report on the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the annual failure rate is calculated to be 1.3E({minus}7)(1/yr), rounded off from 1.32E({minus}7). A calculation by the Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) produces a result that is about 4% higher, namely 1.37E({minus}7)(1/yr). The difference is due to a minor error in the US Department of Energy (DOE) calculations in the Westinghouse 1996 report. WIPP`s hoist safety relies on a braking system consisting of a number of components including two crucial valves. The failure rate of the system needs to be recalculated periodically to accommodate new information on component failure, changes in maintenance and inspection schedules, occasional incidents such as a hoist traveling out-of-control, either up or down, and changes in the design of the brake system. This report examines DOE`s last two reports on the redesigned waste hoist system. In its calculations, the DOE has accepted one EEG recommendation and is using more current information about the component failures rates, the Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD). However, the DOE calculations fail to include the data uncertainties which are described in detail in the NPRD reports. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission recommended that a system evaluation include mean estimates of component failure rates and take into account the potential uncertainties that exist so that an estimate can be made on the confidence level to be ascribed to the quantitative results. EEG has made this suggestion previously and the DOE has indicated why it does not accept the NRC recommendation. Hence, this EEG report illustrates the importance of including data uncertainty using a simple statistical example.

  10. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM-PHASE I

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ted Bestor

    2003-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents the first year's effort towards a 3-year program to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. In essence, all Phase I goals and objectives were met. We intend to proceed with the Phase II research plan, as set forth by the applicable Research Management Plan. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of micropilot ignition for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase I were to develop a single-cylinder test chamber to study the injection of pilot fuel into a combustion cylinder and to develop, install and test a multi-cylinder micropilot ignition system for a 4-cylinder, natural gas test engine. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support these two (2) primarily elements in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. Research activities for Micropilot Phase I were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are expected to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. An extensive state-of-art review was conducted to leverage the existing body of knowledge of micropilot ignition with respect to retrofit applications. Additionally, commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The four-cylinder prototype data was encouraging for the micro-pilot ignition technology when compared to spark ignition. Initial testing results showed: (1) Brake specific fuel consumption of natural gas was improved from standard spark ignition across the map, 1% at full load and 5% at 70% load. (2) 0% misfires for all points on micropilot ignition. Fuel savings were most likely due to this percent misfire improvement. (3) THC (Total Hydrocarbon) emissions were improved significantly at light load, 38% at 70% load. (4) VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions were improved above 80% load. (5) Coefficient of Variance for the IMEP (Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) was significantly less at lower loads, 76% less at 70%. These preliminary results will be substantiated and enhanced during Phase II of the Micropilot Ignition program.

  11. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard Rhudy

    2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This final report presents and discusses results from a mercury control process development project entitled ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems''. The objective of this project was to demonstrate at pilot scale a mercury control technology that uses solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. Oxidized mercury is removed in downstream wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) absorbers and leaves with the FGD byproducts. The goal of the project was to achieve 90% oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas and 90% overall mercury capture with the downstream wet FGD system. The project was co-funded by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (now CPS Energy) of San Antonio were also project co-funders and provided host sites. URS Group, Inc. was the prime contractor. Longer-term pilot-scale tests were conducted at two sites to provide catalyst life data. GRE provided the first site, at their Coal Creek Station (CCS), which fires North Dakota lignite, and CPS Energy provided the second site, at their Spruce Plant, which fires Powder River Basin (PRB) coal. Mercury oxidation catalyst testing began at CCS in October 2002 and continued through the end of June 2004, representing nearly 21 months of catalyst operation. An important finding was that, even though the mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit was installed downstream of a high-efficiency ESP, fly ash buildup began to plug flue gas flow through the horizontal catalyst cells. Sonic horns were installed in each catalyst compartment and appeared to limit fly ash buildup. A palladium-based catalyst showed initial elemental mercury oxidation percentages of 95% across the catalyst, declining to 67% after 21 months in service. A carbon-based catalyst began with almost 98% elemental mercury oxidation across the catalyst, but declined to 79% oxidation after nearly 13 months in service. The other two catalysts, an SCR-type catalyst (titanium/vanadium) and an experimental fly-ash-based catalyst, were significantly less active. The palladium-based and SCR-type catalysts were effectively regenerated at the end of the long-term test by flowing heated air through the catalyst overnight. The carbon-based catalyst was not observed to regenerate, and no regeneration tests were conducted on the fourth, fly-ash-based catalyst. Preliminary process economics were developed for the palladium and carbon-based catalysts for a scrubbed, North Dakota lignite application. As described above, the pilot-scale results showed the catalysts could not sustain 90% or greater oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas for a period of two years. Consequently, the economics were based on performance criteria in a later DOE NETL solicitation, which required candidate mercury control technologies to achieve at least a 55% increase in mercury capture for plants that fire lignite. These economics show that if the catalysts must be replaced every two years, the catalytic oxidation process can be 30 to 40% less costly than conventional (not chemically treated) activated carbon injection if the plant currently sells their fly ash and would lose those sales with carbon injection. If the plant does not sell their fly ash, activated carbon injection was estimated to be slightly less costly. There was little difference in the estimated cost for palladium versus the carbon-based catalysts. If the palladium-based catalyst can be regenerated to double its life to four years, catalytic oxidation process economics are greatly improved. With regeneration, the catalytic oxidation process shows over a 50% reduction in mercury control cost compared to conventional activated carbon injection for a case where the plant sells its fly ash. At Spruce Plant, mercury oxidation catalyst testing began in September 2003 and continued through the end of April 2005, interrupted only by a

  12. Instrumentation and Evaluation of a Pilot Scale Fluidized Bed Biomass Gasification System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maglinao, Amado L

    2009-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    A pilot scale fluidized bed biomass gasifier developed at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas was instrumented with thermocouples, pressure transducers and motor controllers for monitoring gasification temperature and pressure, air flow...

  13. Instrumentation and Evaluation of a Pilot Scale Fluidized Bed Biomass Gasification System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maglinao, Amado L

    2009-12-04T23:59:59.000Z

    A pilot scale fluidized bed biomass gasifier developed at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas was instrumented with thermocouples, pressure transducers and motor controllers for monitoring gasification temperature and pressure, air flow...

  14. Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: A preliminary example

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Anderson, D.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). WIPP Performance Assessments Departments; Baker, B.L. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A systems prioritization methodology (SPM) is under development to provide guidance to the US DOE on experimental programs and design modifications to be supported in the development of a successful licensing application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. The purpose of the SPM is to determine the probabilities that the implementation of different combinations of experimental programs and design modifications, referred to as activity sets, will lead to compliance. Appropriate tradeoffs between compliance probability, implementation cost and implementation time can then be made in the selection of the activity set to be supported in the development of a licensing application. Descriptions are given for the conceptual structure of the SPM and the manner in which this structure determines the computational implementation of an example SPM application. Due to the sophisticated structure of the SPM and the computational demands of many of its components, the overall computational structure must be organized carefully to provide the compliance probabilities for the large number of activity sets under consideration at an acceptable computational cost. Conceptually, the determination of each compliance probability is equivalent to a large numerical integration problem. 96 refs., 31 figs., 36 tabs.

  15. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.

  16. Central receiver solar thermal power system, Phase 1: CDRL Item 2, pilot plant preliminary design report. Volume VII. Pilot plant cost and commercial plant cost and performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hallet, Jr., R. W.; Gervais, R. L.

    1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Detailed cost and performance data for the proposed tower focus pilot plant and commercial plant are given. The baseline central receiver concept defined by the MDAC team consists of the following features: (A) an external receiver mounted on a tower, and located in a 360/sup 0/ array of sun-tracking heliostats which comprise the collector subsystem. (B) feedwater from the electrical power generation subsystem is pumped through a riser to the receiver, where the feedwater is converted to superheated steam in a single pass through the tubes of the receiver panels. (C) The steam from the receiver is routed through a downcomer to the ground and introduced to a turbine directly for expansion and generation of electricity, and/or to a thermal storage subsystem, where the steam is condensed in charging heat exchangers to heat a dual-medium oil and rock thermal storage unit (TSU). (D) Extended operation after daylight hours is facilitated by discharging the TSU to generate steam for feeding the admission port of the turbine. (E) Overall control of the system is provided by a master control unit, which handles the interactions between subsystems that take place during startup, shutdown, and transitions between operating modes. (WHK)

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  18. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  19. Pilot scale test of a produced water-treatment system for initial removal of organic compounds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, Enid J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kwon, Soondong [UT-AUSTIN; Katz, Lynn [UT-AUSTIN; Kinney, Kerry [UT-AUSTIN

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A pilot-scale test to remove polar and non-polar organics from produced water was performed at a disposal facility in Farmington NM. We used surfactant-modified zeolite (SMZ) adsorbent beds and a membrane bioreactor (MBR) in combination to reduce the organic carbon content of produced water prior to reverse osmosis (RO). Reduction of total influent organic carbon (TOC) to 5 mg/L or less is desirable for efficient RO system operation. Most water disposed at the facility is from coal-bed gas production, with oil production waters intermixed. Up to 20 gal/d of produced water was cycled through two SMZ adsorbent units to remove volatile organic compounds (BTEX, acetone) and semivolatile organic compounds (e.g., napthalene). Output water from the SMZ units was sent to the MBR for removal of the organic acid component of TOC. Removal of inorganic (Mn and Fe oxide) particulates by the SMZ system was observed. The SMZ columns removed up to 40% of the influent TOC (600 mg/L). BTEX concentrations were reduced from the initial input of 70 mg/L to 5 mg/L by the SMZ and to an average of 2 mg/L after the MBR. Removal rates of acetate (input 120-170 mg/L) and TOC (input up to 45 mg/L) were up to 100% and 92%, respectively. The water pH rose from 8.5 to 8.8 following organic acid removal in the MBR; this relatively high pH was likely responsible for observed scaling of the MBR internal membrane. Additional laboratory studies showed the scaling can be reduced by metered addition of acid to reduce the pH. Significantly, organic removal in the MBR was accomplished with a very low biomass concentration of 1 g/L throughout the field trial. An earlier engineering evaluation shows produced water treatment by the SMZ/MBR/RO system would cost from $0.13 to $0.20 per bbl at up to 40 gpm. Current estimated disposal costs for produced water are $1.75 to $4.91 per bbl when transportation costs are included, with even higher rates in some regions. Our results suggest that treatment by an SMZ/MBR/RO system may be a feasible alternative to current methods for produced water treatment and disposal.

  20. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  1. Research Excellence Framework: Impact pilot Example case studies from Earth Systems and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crowther, Paul

    at www.ref.ac.uk under Impact pilot exercise. #12;2 Establishing methods to detect irradiated foods.Underpinning research In the 1980s, it was believed that irradiated food could not be detected. The UK Advisory Committee for Irradiated and Novel Foods reported in 1986 that "There are as yet no generally applicable

  2. Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

    2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the manufactunng costs of fuel cells systems from presentlevel and manufactunng cost of PEM fuel cell systems, for amthe present cost cf PEM fuel cell systems by consldenng a

  3. Toward understanding the formation of multiple systems - A pilot IRAM-PdBI survey of Class 0 objects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maury, A J; Hennebelle, P; Motte, F; Stamatellos, D; Bate, M; Belloche, A; Duchene, G; Whitworth, A

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The formation process of binary stars and multiple systems is poorly understood. Here, we seek to determine the typical outcome of protostellar collapse and to constrain models of binary formation by core fragmentation during collapse, using high-resolution millimeter continuum imaging of very young (Class 0) protostars observed at the beginning of the main accretion phase. We carried out a pilot high-resolution study of 5 Class 0 objects, using the most extended (A) configuration of the IRAM PdBI at 1.3 mm, which allow us to probe the multiplicity of Class 0 protostars down to separations a ~50 AU and circumstellar mass ratios q ~0.07. We show that our PdBI observations revealed only wide (>1500 AU) protobinary systems and/or outflow-generated features. When combined with previous millimeter interferometric observations of Class 0 protostars, our pilot PdBI study tentatively suggests that the binary fraction in the ~ 75-1000 AU range increases from the Class 0 to the Class I stage. It also seems to argue aga...

  4. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 5 report: Impacts of ultra low sulfur diesel fuel production on Navy fuel availability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Das, S.; Lee, R.; Domingo, N.; Davis, R.M.

    1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Legislation for ultra low sulfur (ULS) diesel fuel, with a greatly reduced allowable sulfur content and a new limit on aromatics content, is expected to be in place by 1995. The ULS diesel fuel has been specified to satisfy national standards for particulate emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines. The economic and engineering models of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System have been used to study the impacts of ULS diesel fuel production on other refined petroleum products, with emphasis on the quality of Navy mobility fuels. The study predicts that to produce ULS diesel fuel, Gulf and West Coast refiners will have to invest about $4.4 billion in new processing capacity. Refiners will shift aromatics from No. 2 diesel fuel to jet fuel and to No. 2 fuel oil. Therefore, particulate emissions could be transferred from the nation's highways to the airways and to communities which use No. 2 fuel oil for residential and commercial heating. The study also predicts that there will be an increase in the aromatics content of domestically produced Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel. The gum-forming tendencies of F-76 an F-77 burner fuel oil will increase in most cases. The freezing point of JP-5 will improve. There will be minor changes in the cost of JP-5, but sizable reductions in the cost of F-76 and F-77. 20 refs., 2 figs., 17 tabs.

  5. HIGH-TEMPERATURE HEAT EXCHANGER TESTING IN A PILOT-SCALE SLAGGING FURNACE SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael E. Collings; Bruce A. Dockter; Douglas R. Hajicek; Ann K. Henderson; John P. Hurley; Patty L. Kleven; Greg F. Weber

    1999-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) under a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contract, has designed, constructed, and operated a 3.0-million Btu/hr (3.2 x 10{sup 6} kJ/hr) slagging furnace system (SFS). Successful operation has demonstrated that the SFS meets design objectives and is well suited for testing very high-temperature heat exchanger concepts. Test results have shown that a high-temperature radiant air heater (RAH) panel designed and constructed by UTRC and used in the SFS can produce a 2000 F (1094 C) process air stream. To support the pilot-scale work, the EERC has also constructed laboratory- and bench-scale equipment which was used to determine the corrosion resistance of refractory and structural materials and develop methods to improve corrosion resistance. DOE projects that from 1995 to 2015, worldwide use of electricity will double to approach 20 trillion kilowatt hours. This growth comes during a time of concern over global warming, thought by many policy makers to be caused primarily by increases from coal-fired boilers in carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions through the use of fossil fuels. Assuming limits on CO{sub 2} emissions from coal-fired boilers are imposed in the future, the most economical CO{sub 2} mitigation option may be efficiency improvements. Unless efficiency improvements are made in coal-fired power plants, utilities may be forced to turn to more expensive fuels or buy CO{sub 2} credits. One way to improve the efficiency of a coal-fired power plant is to use a combined cycle involving a typical steam cycle along with an indirectly fired turbine cycle using very high-temperature but low-pressure air as the working fluid. At the heart of an indirectly fired turbine combined-cycle power system are very high-temperature heat exchangers that can produce clean air at up to 2600 F (1427 C) and 250 psi (17 bar) to turn an aeroderivative turbine. The overall system design can be very similar to that of a typical pulverized coal-fired boiler system, except that ceramics and alloys are used to carry the very high-temperature air rather than steam. This design makes the combined-cycle system especially suitable as a boiler-repowering technology. With the use of a gas-fired duct heater, efficiencies of 55% can be achieved, leading to reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions of 40% as compared to today's coal-fired systems. On the basis of work completed to date, the high-temperature advanced furnace (HITAF) concept appears to offer a higher-efficiency technology option for coal-fired power generation systems than conventional pulverized coal firing. Concept analyses have demonstrated the ability to achieve program objectives for emissions (10% of New Source Performance Standards, i.e., 0.003 lb/MMBtu of particulate), efficiency (47%-55%), and cost of electricity (10%-25% below today's cost). Higher-efficiency technology options for new plants as well as repowering are important to the power generation industry in order to conserve valuable fossil fuel resources, reduce the quantity of pollutants (air and water) and solid wastes generated per MW, and reduce the cost of power production in a deregulated industry. Possibly more important than their potential application in a new high-temperature power system, the RAH panel and convective air heater tube bank are potential retrofit technology options for existing coal-fired boilers to improve plant efficiencies. Therefore, further development of these process air-based high-temperature heat exchangers and their potential for commercial application is directly applicable to the development of enabling technologies in support of the Vision 21 program objectives. The objective of the work documented in this report was to improve the performance of the UTRC high-temperature heat exchanger, demonstrate the fuel flexibility of the slagging combustor, and test methods for reducing corrosion of brick and castable refractory in such combustion environments. Specif

  6. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG ...

  7. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  8. ISOE Pilot Project Update

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. A. Hagemeyer D. E. Lewis

    2012-05-05T23:59:59.000Z

    This slide show introduces the Pilot Project to increase the value of Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)#11;data by increasing participation and amount of data reported from the U.S., reduce the hurdles and effort in participating, streamline the process of reporting and reduce time delay, and eliminate data entry and redundant effort.

  9. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Coates, J.D.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A multi-well microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot has been performed in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit in Payne County, Oklahoma. The primary emphasis of the experiment was preferential plugging of high permeability zones for the purpose of improving waterflood sweep efficiency. Studies were performed to determine reservoir chemistry, ecology, and indigenous bacteria populations. Growth experiments were used to select a nutrient system compatible with the reservoir that encouraged growth of a group of indigenous nitrate-using bacteria and inhibit growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria. A specific field pilot area behind an active line drive waterflood was selected. Surface facilities were designed and installed. Injection protocols of bulk nutrient materials were prepared to facilitate uniform distribution of nutrients within the pilot area. By the end of December, 1991, 82.5 tons (75.0 tonnes) of nutrients had been injected in the field. A tracer test identified significant heterogeneity in the SEVVSU and made it necessary to monitor additional production wells in the field. The tracer tests and changes in production behavior indicate the additional production wells monitored during the field trial were also affected. Eighty two and one half barrels (13.1 m[sup 3]) of tertiary oil have been recovered. Microbial activity has increased CO[sub 2] content as indicated by increased alkalinity. A temporary rise in sulfide concentration was experienced. These indicate an active microbial community was generated in the field by the nutrient injection. Pilot area interwell pressure interference test results showed that significant permeability reduction occurred. The interwell permeabilities in the pilot area between the injector and the three pilot production wells were made more uniform which indicates a successful preferential plugging enhanced oil recovery project.

  10. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chisholm, J.L.

    1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Studies were performed enhanced oil recovery field pilot was performed in Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. The primary emphasis of the experiment was preferential plugging of high permeability zones for the purpose of improving waterflood sweep efficiency. Studies were performed to determine reservoir chemistry, ecology, and indigenous bacteria populations. Studies were performed to determine a nutrient system to encourage growth of a group of indigenous nitrate-using bacteria an inhibit growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria. A specific field pilot area behind an active line drive waterflood was selected. Surface facilities were designed and installed. Injection protocols of bulk nutrient material were prepared to facilitate uniform distribution of nutrients within the pilot area. By the end of December, 1991, 82.5 tons of nutrients had been injected in the field. A tracer test identified significant heterogeneity in the SEVVSU and made it necessary to monitor an additional production well in the field. The tracer tests and changes in production behavior indicated the additional production well monitored during the field trial was also affected. Eighty two and one half barrels of tertiary oil was recovered. Microbial activity increased CO[sub 2] content as indicated by increased alkalinity. A temporary rise in sulphide concentration was experienced. These observations indicate that an active microbial community was generated in the field by the nutrient injection. The three production wells monitored in the pilot area demonstrated significant permeability reduction indicated by interwell pressure interference tests. The interwell permeabilities in the pilot area between the injector and the three pilot production wells were made more uniform (15 md maximum difference between post-treatment permeability values) indicating that preferential plugging had occurred.

  11. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  12. GI Self-Supply Pilot Overview

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BPA TRANSMISSION SERVICES Transmission Wind Integration Systems Team GENERATION IMBALANCE SELF SUPPLY PILOT PROJECT OVERVIEW VERSION: 0.1 UPDATED: 7292009 giself-supplypilotov...

  13. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  14. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  16. Designing Better Scaffolding in Simulation-Based Learning Environments Teaching Science Systems: A Pilot Study Report

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Designing Better Scaffolding in Simulation-Based Learning Environments Teaching Science Systems strong science background. They were asked to learn a chemical system in a simulation-based environment; simulation-based learning environments; scaffolding. Research Background Systems thinking skills have become

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  18. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  19. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  20. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  3. THE HOMOGENEOUS STUDY OF TRANSITING SYSTEMS (HoSTS). I. THE PILOT STUDY OF WASP-13

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gomez Maqueo Chew, Yilen; Cargile, Phillip; Hebb, Leslie; Stassun, Keivan G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Faedi, Francesca; Pollacco, Don [Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Doyle, Amanda P.; Smalley, Barry [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG (United Kingdom); Ghezzi, Luan; Cunha, Katia; Smith, Verne V. [Observatorio Nacional, Rua Gal. Jose Cristino 77, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20921-400 (Brazil); Sousa, Sergio; Santos, Nuno C. [Centro de Astrofisica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Barros, Susana C. C. [LAM (Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille) UMR 7326, Aix Marseille Universite, CNRS, F-13388 Marseille (France); Schuler, Simon C. [Stewart Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Collier Cameron, Andrew, E-mail: yilen.gomez@vanderbilt.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We present the fundamental stellar and planetary properties of the transiting planetary system WASP-13 within the framework of the Homogeneous Study of Transiting Systems (HoSTS). HoSTS aims to derive the fundamental stellar (T{sub eff}, [Fe/H], M{sub *}, R{sub *}) and planetary (M{sub pl}, R{sub pl}, T{sub eq}) physical properties of known transiting planets using a consistent methodology and homogeneous high-quality data set. Four spectral analysis techniques are independently applied to a Keck+HIRES spectrum of WASP-13 considering two distinct cases: unconstrained parameters and constrained log g from transit light curves. We check the derived stellar temperature against that from a different temperature diagnostic based on an INT+IDS H{alpha} spectrum. The four unconstrained analyses render results that are in good agreement, and provide an improvement of 50% in the precision of T{sub eff}, and of 85% in [Fe/H] with respect to the WASP-13 discovery paper. The planetary parameters are then derived via the Monte Carlo Markov Chain modeling of the radial velocity and light curves, in iteration with stellar evolutionary models to derive realistic uncertainties. WASP-13 (1.187 {+-} 0.065 M{sub Sun }; 1.574 {+-} 0.048 R{sub Sun }) hosts a Saturn-mass, transiting planet (0.500 {+-} 0.037 M{sub Jup}; 1.407 {+-} 0.052 R{sub Jup}), and is at the end of its main-sequence lifetime (4-5.5 Gyr). Our analysis of WASP-13 showcases that both a detailed stellar characterization and transit modeling are necessary to well determine the fundamental properties of planetary systems, which are paramount in identifying and determining empirical relationships between transiting planets and their hosts.

  4. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  5. Analysis of Flow in Pilot Operated Safety and Relief Valve of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kwon, Soon-Bum; Lee, Dong-Won [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 1370, Sankyuk-dong, Daegu 702-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, In-Goo; Ahn, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Hho-Jung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, 19, Kusungdong, Yousungku, Daejon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    When the POSRV equipped in a nuclear power plant opens in instant by a failure in coolant system of PWR, a moving shock wave generates, and propagates downstream of the valve, inducing a complicated unsteadiness. The moving shock wave may exert severe load to the structure. In this connection, a method of gradual opening of the valve is used to reduce the load acting on the wall at the downstream of the POSRV. In the present study, experiments and calculations are performed to investigate the detail unsteady flow at the various pipe units and the effect of valve opening time on the flow downstream of the valve. In calculation by using of air as working fluid, 2-dimensional, unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved by finite volume method. It was found that when the incident shock wave passes through the pipe unit, it may experience diffraction, reflection and interaction with a vortex. Furthermore, the geometry of the pipe unit affects the reflection type of shock wave and changes the load acting on the wall of pipe unit. It was also turned out that the maximum force acting on the wall of the pipe unit becomes in order of T-junction, 108 deg. elbow and branch in magnitude, respectively. And, the results obtained that show that the rapid pressure rise due to the moving shock wave by instant POSRV valve opening is attenuated by employing the gradual opening. (authors)

  6. Role of pilot projects and public acceptance in developing wireless power transmission as an enabling technology for space solar power systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woodell, M.I. [Bivings Woodell, Inc., Washington, DC (United States)] [Bivings Woodell, Inc., Washington, DC (United States); Schupp, B.W. [Raytheon Electronic Systems, Marlborough, MA (United States)] [Raytheon Electronic Systems, Marlborough, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    In all system concepts for delivering space solar power to terrestrial power systems, wireless power transmission (WPT) is identified as a critical link in the technology chain. To realize the full potential of WPT as an enabling technology for the development of space power systems, the technology needs to (1) be demonstrated as a commercially viable, low risk technology, and (2) be shown to be acceptable to the public. If WPT`s full potential is to be realized, its initial applications must be carefully chosen and demonstrated through a series of pilot projects which will develop both the technology and its public acceptance. This paper examines the role of pilot projects and how they will play an increasingly important role in the development and acceptance of WPT as an enabling technology for space solar power systems. Recognizing that public acceptance is the ultimate determinant of the commercial success or failure of a technology, the paper then explores the role of public opinion in the commercialization process of space solar power systems utilizing WPT. A framework that begins to define the process required to realize the full commercial potential of wireless power transmission is established. 21 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  7. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  8. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  9. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  10. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  11. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  12. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  13. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  14. Murray City Power- Net Metering Pilot Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Under a pilot program, Murray City Power offers net metering to customers that generate electricity using photovoltaic (PV), wind-electric or hydroelectric systems with a maximum capacity of 10...

  15. Kentucky WRI Pilot Test Universal ID

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    screening deployment experience · Significant cost savings to FMCSA ·Enabling technology already deployedKentucky WRI Pilot Test ­ Universal ID Commercial Motor Vehicle Roadside Technology Corridor Safety Technology Showcase October 14, 2010 #12;·Utilizes existing automated screening system ·Uses assorted

  16. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  17. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  18. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  19. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  20. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  1. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  2. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  3. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 5 report: Jet fuel conversion by Pacific fuel suppliers and impacts on Navy fuel availability

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Das, S.; Lee, R.; Domingo, N.; Davis, R.M.

    1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    NATO members have made the commitment to convert land-based jet aircraft from naphtha-type JP-4 jet fuel to kerosene-type JP-8. JP-8 has safety advantages because of its relatively low volatility. With the NATO conversion underway, the US military has conducted market surveys to determine the effects of jet fuel conversion in the Pacific basin. This report describes the application of the economic and engineering models of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System to predict the effects of jet fuel conversion in the Pacific basin. The primary objective of the study was to estimate the impacts of conversion on the cost and quality of Navy jet and marine fuels. The study predicts that the average cost increase for producing JP-8 instead of JP-4 is 5 cents per gallon. The associated cost increases for Navy fuels are 0.4 cents per gallon for JP-5 jet fuel; 0.2 cents per gallon for F-76 marine diesel fuel; and 0.4 cents per gallon for F-77 burner fuel oil. Conversion has little effect on the quality of Navy fuels. With or without conversion, the study predicts that Navy fuels produced in the US West Coast could have increased tendencies to form gums and other particulates, with potentially adverse impacts on storage stability. 22 refs., 2 figs., 11 tabs.

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  5. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  6. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  7. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  8. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  9. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  10. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  11. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  12. 3818 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 28, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2013 Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Similar Shape

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sapatinas, Theofanis

    to electricity authorities worldwide to use as far as possible the low functionality cost machines for covering is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar is an integrable process in the design of power systems faced by electricity authorities world- wide. It involves

  13. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  14. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  15. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Shaft Sealing System Compliance Submittal Design Report. Volume 1 and 2: Main report, appendices A, B, C, and D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a shaft sealing system design for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a proposed nuclear waste repository in bedded salt. The system is designed to limit entry of water and release of contaminants through the four existing shafts after the WIPP is decommissioned. The design approach applies redundancy to functional elements and specifies multiple, common, low-permeability materials to reduce uncertainty in performance. The system comprises 13 elements that completely fill the shafts with engineered materials possessing high density and low permeability. Laboratory and field measurements of component properties and performance provide the basis for the design and related evaluations. Hydrologic, mechanical, thermal, and physical features of the system are evaluated in a series of calculations. These evaluations indicate that the design guidance is addressed by effectively limiting transport of fluids within the shafts, thereby limiting transport of hazardous material to regulatory boundaries. Additionally, the use or adaptation of existing technologies for placement of the seal components combined with the use of available, common materials assure that the design can be constructed.

  16. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  17. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  18. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  20. COURSE SYLLABUS SPORT / PRIVATE PILOT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    COURSE SYLLABUS SPORT / PRIVATE PILOT #12;#12;Cessna eLearning Web Based Instructional Programs Cessna Sport / Private Pilot Training Course SYLLABUS King Schools, Inc. 3840 Calle Fortunada San Diego States of America. #12;Ver. 1.02 Cessna Sport / Private Pilot Syllabus Your Path to Becoming a Pilot

  1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  2. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  3. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  4. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  5. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  6. PILOT-SCALE TEST RESULTS OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF LIQUID HIGH-LEVEL WASTES AT THE HANFORD SITE WASHINGTON USA -11364

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CORBETT JE; TEDESCH AR; WILSON RA; BECK TH; LARKIN J

    2011-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    A modular, transportable evaporator system, using thin film evaporative technology, is planned for deployment at the Hanford radioactive waste storage tank complex. This technology, herein referred to as a wiped film evaporator (WFE), will be located at grade level above an underground storage tank to receive pumped liquids, concentrate the liquid stream from 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.4 and then return the concentrated solution back into the tank. Water is removed by evaporation at an internal heated drum surface exposed to high vacuum. The condensed water stream will be shipped to the site effluent treatment facility for final disposal. This operation provides significant risk mitigation to failure of the aging 242-A Evaporator facility; the only operating evaporative system at Hanford maximizing waste storage. This technology is being implemented through a development and deployment project by the tank farm operating contractor, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), for the Office of River Protection/Department of Energy (ORPIDOE), through Columbia Energy and Environmental Services, Inc. (Columbia Energy). The project will finalize technology maturity and install a system at one of the double-shell tank farms. This paper summarizes results of a pilot-scale test program conducted during calendar year 2010 as part of the ongoing technology maturation development scope for the WFE.

  7. FINAL REPORT TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-02R0100-2 REV 1 2/17/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BARDAKCI T; GONG W; D'ANGELO NA; SCHATZ TR; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from a series of nine tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part B1 [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plans. The nine tests reported here were preceded by an initial series of short-duration tests conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Reports. The DM1200 system was deployed for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. These tests include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The primary objective of the present series of tests was to determine the effects of a variety of parameters on the glass production rate in comparison to the RPP-WTP HL W design basis of 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d. Previous testing on the DMIOOO system [1] concluded that achievement of that rate with simulants of projected WTP melter feeds (AZ-101 and C-106/AY-102) was unlikely without the use of bubblers. As part of those tests, the same feed that was used during the cold-commissioning of the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) HLW vitrification system was run on the DM1000 system. The DM1000 tests reproduced the rates that were obtained at the larger WVDP facility, lending confidence to the tests results [1]. Since the inclusion or exclusion of a bubbler has significant design implications, the Project commissioned further tests to address this issue. In an effort to identify factors that might increase the glass production rate for projected WTP melter feeds, a subsequent series of tests was performed on the DM100 system. Several tests variables led to glass production rate increases to values significantly above the 400 kg/m2/d requirement. However, while small-scale melter tests are useful for screening relative effects, they tend to overestimate absolute glass production rates, particularly for un-bubbled tests. Consequently, when scale-up effects were taken into account, it was not clear that any of the variables investigated would conclusively meet the 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d requirement without bubbling. The present series of tests was therefore performed on the DM1200 one-third scale HLW pilot melter system to provide the required basis for a final decision on whether bubblers would be included in the HLW melter. The present tests employed the same AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing for consistency and comparability with the results from the earlier tests.

  8. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    process unit is not operating (down) is specified. If the process will be operating for the entire period, the word "LP" is displayed. PRODUCTION SCHEDULE 2/20/92 - 5/20/82 UNIT 1 A UP 2 B UP D 2./20-3./15 D 4.19. TO- 3 C D 2./20-3./15 D 4..../9. TO- 4 D 5 E D 4./15 TO- UP 6 F D 2./20-2./21 7 G UP 9 I UP 8 H D 2./20-3./13 D 3./27 TO- 10 J 11 K D 2./20 TO- 12 L UP 13 M UP UP 15 0 14 N UP D 2./20-2./24 D 3./7.-3./17 D 3./28 TO- 16 P 17 G D 4./1. TO- 19 R II 3...

  9. Renewable Energy Pilot Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The pilot program has two major components: the Research Component and the Request for Proposal (RFP) Component. The RFP component has been concluded but companies continue to report in Docket No...

  10. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  11. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  12. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  13. An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  15. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  16. PEATGAS pilot plant operating results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Biljetina, R.; Punwani, D.

    1982-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Institute of Gas Technology has been developing the PEATGAS process for the conversion of peat to synthetic fuels. A program has recently been completed for the pilot-plant-scale testing of the process. In this scheme, peat is gasified in a two-stage reactor system, which operates at temperatures up to 1750/sup 0/F and pressures up to 500 psig. The process can be controlled to maximize the production of either substitute natural gas (SNG) or liquid hydrocarbons. The technical feasibility of the process was demonstrated in a series of five gasification tests. Highlights of this operating program are presented in this paper.

  17. PEATGAS pilot plant operating results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Biljetina, R.; Punwani, D.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Institute of Gas Technology has been developing the PEATGAS process for the conversion of peat to synthetic fuels. A program has recently been completed for the pilot-plant-scale testing of the process. In this scheme, peat is gasified in a two-stage reactor system, which operates at temperatures up to 1750/sup 0/F and pressures up to 500 psig. The process can be controlled to maximize the production of either substitute natural gas (SNG) or liquid hydrocarbons. The technical feasibility of the process was demonstrated in a series of five gasification tests. Highlights of this operating program are presented in this paper.

  18. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - Webinar Transcript This...

  19. Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation As a WIPP agency, reporting...

  20. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  1. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  2. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  3. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  4. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    solar photovoltaics (PV) in electric power systems utilizingphotovoltaics (PV) in traditional electric power systems,”

  5. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

    2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

    A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

  6. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  7. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2013-09-27T23:59:59.000Z

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  8. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2014-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  9. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  10. Pilot Study on the Effects of a Computer-Based Medical Image System Shu-Chieh Wu

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swan II, J. Edward

    of Psychology The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio Jack W. Smith, M.D. Ph.D. J. Edward Swan II Department of Computer and Information Science The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio Division of Medical Informatics Department of Pathology The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio Current medical imaging systems

  11. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  12. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    modeling of solar steam- generators, solar water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power generation systems,

  13. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  14. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 3, Analysis for final programmatic recommendations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prindle, N.H.; Boak, D.M.; Weiner, R.F. [and others] [and others

    1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the US DOE Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic decision making for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). SPM integrates decision-analysis techniques, performance,a nd risk-assessment tools, and advanced information technology. Potential outcomes of proposed activities and combination of activities are used to calculate a probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) with selected regulations. The results are presented in a decision matrix showing cost, duration, and maximum PDC for all activities in a given cost and duration category. This is the third and final volume in the series which presents the analysis for final programmatic recommendations.

  15. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 1, Synopsis of method and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prindle, N.H.; Mendenhall, F.T.; Boak, D.M. [and others

    1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In March 1994, the US Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO) embarked on an effort to design and implement a performance- based decision-aiding tool to provide an analytical basis for planning, prioritizing, and selecting programmatic options for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). This tool, called Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) defines the most viable combinations of scientific investigations, engineered alternatives (EAs), and waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for supporting the final WIPP compliance application. The scope of SPM is restricted to selected portions of applicable Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) long-term performance regulations. SPM calculates the probabilities of certain sets of activities demonstrating compliance with various regulations. SPM provides results in the form of a decision matrix to identify cost-effective programmatic paths with a high probability of successfully demonstrating compliance.

  16. The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 2, Summary of technical input and model implementation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prindle, N.H.; Mendenhall, F.T.; Trauth, K.; Boak, D.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beyeler, W. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States); Rudeen, D. [New Mexico Engineering Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SPM provides an analytical basis for supporting programmatic decisions for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) to meet selected portions of the applicable US EPA long-term performance regulations. The first iteration of SPM (SPM-1), the prototype for SPM< was completed in 1994. It served as a benchmark and a test bed for developing the tools needed for the second iteration of SPM (SPM-2). SPM-2, completed in 1995, is intended for programmatic decision making. This is Volume II of the three-volume final report of the second iteration of the SPM. It describes the technical input and model implementation for SPM-2, and presents the SPM-2 technical baseline and the activities, activity outcomes, outcome probabilities, and the input parameters for SPM-2 analysis.

  17. au site pilote: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    incidents that fit 39 Pilot Feedback for an Automated Planning Aid System in the Cockpit Engineering Websites Summary: plan and safely land the airplane. This task can become very...

  18. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25T23:59:59.000Z

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayed˛ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  19. Microbial field pilot study. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Coates, J.D.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A multi-well microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot has been performed in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit in Payne County, Oklahoma. The primary emphasis of the experiment was preferential plugging of high permeability zones for the purpose of improving waterflood sweep efficiency. Studies were performed to determine reservoir chemistry, ecology, and indigenous bacteria populations. Growth experiments were used to select a nutrient system compatible with the reservoir that encouraged growth of a group of indigenous nitrate-using bacteria and inhibit growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria. A specific field pilot area behind an active line drive waterflood was selected. Surface facilities were designed and installed. Injection protocols of bulk nutrient materials were prepared to facilitate uniform distribution of nutrients within the pilot area. By the end of December, 1991, 82.5 tons (75.0 tonnes) of nutrients had been injected in the field. A tracer test identified significant heterogeneity in the SEVVSU and made it necessary to monitor additional production wells in the field. The tracer tests and changes in production behavior indicate the additional production wells monitored during the field trial were also affected. Eighty two and one half barrels (13.1 m{sup 3}) of tertiary oil have been recovered. Microbial activity has increased CO{sub 2} content as indicated by increased alkalinity. A temporary rise in sulfide concentration was experienced. These indicate an active microbial community was generated in the field by the nutrient injection. Pilot area interwell pressure interference test results showed that significant permeability reduction occurred. The interwell permeabilities in the pilot area between the injector and the three pilot production wells were made more uniform which indicates a successful preferential plugging enhanced oil recovery project.

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  1. FAA (federal Aviation Administration) aviation forecasts - fiscal years 1983-1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1983-1994 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with FAA control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight service stations. Detailed forecasts were made for the four major users of the national aviation system: air carriers, air taxi/commuters, general aviation and the military. The forecasts have been prepared to meet the budget and planning needs of the constituent units of the FAA and to provide information that can be used by state and local authorities, by the aviation industry and the general public. The overall outlook for the forecast period is for moderate economic growth, relatively stable real fuel prices, and decreasing inflation. Based upon these assumptions, aviation activity is forecast to increase by Fiscal Year 1994 by 97 percent at towered airports, 50 percent at air route traffic control centers, and 54 percent in flight services performed. Hours flown by general aviation is forecast to increase 56 percent and helicopter hours flown 80 percent. Scheduled domestic revenue passenger miles (RPM's) are forecast to increase 81 percent, with scheduled international RPM's forecast to increase by 80 percent and commuter RPM's forecast to increase by 220 percent.

  2. Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely

  3. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  4. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  5. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot test in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate-reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been preferentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  6. PILOT and cosmic shear

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. Saunders

    2008-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Cosmic shear offers a remarkbly clean way to measure the equation of state of the Universe and its evolution. Resolution over a wide field is paramount, and Antarctica offers unique possibilities in this respect. There is an order of magnitude gain in speed over temperate sites, or a factor three in surface density. This means that PILOT outperforms much larger telescopes elsewhere, and can compete with the proposed DUNE space mission. Keywords: Antarctic astronomy, Surveys, Adaptive optics, Weak lensing

  7. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake. The in- crease in computer power in recent years and advances in numerical mesoscale models of both ocean Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed

  8. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  9. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  11. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christenson, Norm; Walters, Jerel

    2014-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 2b of the SkyMine® Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO2 from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO2 to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO2 capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to the point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and deployment. The overall process is carbon negative, resulting in mineralization of CO2 that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at the commercial scale. The project is being conducted in two phases. The primary objectives of Phase 1 were to evaluate proven SkyMine® process chemistry for commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2, complete a NEPA evaluation, and develop a comprehensive carbon life cycle analysis. The objective of Phase 2b was to build the pilot plant to be operated and tested in Phase 2c.

  12. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  14. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  15. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  16. Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively

  17. air pollution forecast: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    air pollution forecast First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM...

  18. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbial enhanced oil recovery field pilot in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been referentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. This report covers progress made during the second year, January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1990, of the Microbial Field Pilot Study project. Information on reservoir ecology, surface facilities design, operation of the unit, core experiments, modeling of microbial processes, and reservoir characterization and simulation are presented in the report. To better understand the ecology of the target reservoir, additional analyses of the fluids which support bacteriological growth and the microbiology of the reservoir were performed. The results of the produced and injected water analysis show increasing sulfide concentrations with respect to time. In March of 1990 Mesa Limited Partnership sold their interest in the SEVVSU to Sullivan and Company. In April, Sullivan and Company assumed operation of the field. The facilities for the field operation of the pilot were refined and implementation was begun. Core flood experiments conducted during the last year were used to help define possible mechanisms involved in microbial enhanced oil recovery. The experiments were performed at SEVVSU temperature using fluids and inoculum from the unit. The model described in last year`s report was further validated using results from a core flood experiment. The model was able to simulate the results of one of the core flood experiments with good quality.

  19. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbial enhanced oil recovery field pilot in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been referentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. This report covers progress made during the second year, January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1990, of the Microbial Field Pilot Study project. Information on reservoir ecology, surface facilities design, operation of the unit, core experiments, modeling of microbial processes, and reservoir characterization and simulation are presented in the report. To better understand the ecology of the target reservoir, additional analyses of the fluids which support bacteriological growth and the microbiology of the reservoir were performed. The results of the produced and injected water analysis show increasing sulfide concentrations with respect to time. In March of 1990 Mesa Limited Partnership sold their interest in the SEVVSU to Sullivan and Company. In April, Sullivan and Company assumed operation of the field. The facilities for the field operation of the pilot were refined and implementation was begun. Core flood experiments conducted during the last year were used to help define possible mechanisms involved in microbial enhanced oil recovery. The experiments were performed at SEVVSU temperature using fluids and inoculum from the unit. The model described in last year's report was further validated using results from a core flood experiment. The model was able to simulate the results of one of the core flood experiments with good quality.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

  1. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1990-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot test in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate-reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been preferentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. Results are reported on the isolation/characterization of anaerobic bacteria; bacterial mobility and the importance of chemotaxis; careflood experiments; microbial modeling; and surface facilities design. 7 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

    1990-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot test in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate-reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been preferentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. Progress is reported on growth/activity in porous media; coreflooding; and microbial modeling. 3 refs., 5 figs.

  3. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.

    1991-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbial enhanced oil recovery field pilot test in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate-reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been preferentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. During this quarter an additional tracer study was performed in the field to determine pre-treatment flow paths and the first nutrients were injected. 2 figs.

  4. Pilots 2.0: DIRAC pilots for all the skies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stagni, F; McNab, A; Luzzi, C

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the last few years, new types of computing infrastructures, such as IAAS (Infrastructure as a Service) and IAAC (Infrastructure as a Client), gained popularity. New resources may come as part of pledged resources, while others are opportunistic. Most of these new infrastructures are based on virtualization techniques. Meanwhile, some concepts, such as distributed queues, lost appeal, while still supporting a vast amount of resources. Virtual Organizations are therefore facing heterogeneity of the available resources and the use of an Interware software like DIRAC to hide the diversity of underlying resources has become essential. The DIRAC WMS is based on the concept of pilot jobs that was introduced back in 2004. A pilot is what creates the possibility to run jobs on a worker node. Within DIRAC, we developed a new generation of pilot jobs, that we dubbed Pilots 2.0. Pilots 2.0 are not tied to a specific infrastructure; rather they are generic, fully configurable and extendible pilots. A Pilot 2.0 can be s...

  5. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  6. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  7. The Scaleup of Structured Packing from Distillation Pilot Plant Testing to Commercial Application

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berven, O. J.; Ulowetz, M. A.

    The Scaleup of Structured Packing From Distillation Pilot Plant Testing to Commercial Application O. Jeffrey'Berven and Michael A. Ulowetz Koch Engineering Company, Inc. Wichita, Kansas Structured packing is being utilized more and more... in the process industry for increased efficiency, greater capacity, and energy savings in distillation columns. Pilot plant testing of the actual chemical system using commercially available structured packing is invaluable, but years of experience in pilot...

  8. Advanced Gasifier Pilot Plant Concept Definition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steve Fusselman; Alan Darby; Fred Widman

    2005-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents results from definition of a preferred commercial-scale advanced gasifier configuration and concept definition for a gasification pilot plant incorporating those preferred technologies. The preferred commercial gasifier configuration was established based on Cost Of Electricity estimates for an IGCC. Based on the gasifier configuration trade study results, a compact plug flow gasifier, with a dry solids pump, rapid-mix injector, CMC liner insert and partial quench system was selected as the preferred configuration. Preliminary systems analysis results indicate that this configuration could provide cost of product savings for electricity and hydrogen ranging from 15%-20% relative to existing gasifier technologies. This cost of product improvement draws upon the efficiency of the dry feed, rapid mix injector technology, low capital cost compact gasifier, and >99% gasifier availability due to long life injector and gasifier liner, with short replacement time. A pilot plant concept incorporating the technologies associated with the preferred configuration was defined, along with cost and schedule estimates for design, installation, and test operations. It was estimated that a 16,300 kg/day (18 TPD) pilot plant gasifier incorporating the advanced gasification technology and demonstrating 1,000 hours of hot-fire operation could be accomplished over a period of 33 months with a budget of $25.6 M.

  9. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  10. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    -effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future a reliable power system with just enough capacity (with proper reliability margins) to support their customers. Distribution systems are the retail part of utilities that supply power to their customers

  11. Pilot Plant Options for the MFE Roadmap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pilot Plant Options for the MFE Roadmap Hutch Neilson Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory International Workshop MFE Roadmapping for the ITER Era Princeton, NJ 10 September 2011 #12;Outline 2 · Pilot plant ­ mission, motivation, and description. · Role of pilot plants on the Roadmap to Demo. Pilot Plant

  12. Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This fact sheet provides information about Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant capabilities and resources at NREL.

  13. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  14. Microbial field pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this project is to perform a microbially enhanced oil recovery field pilot test in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate-reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been preferentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions or the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. Injection of nutrient stimulates the growth and metabolism of reservoir bacteria, which produces beneficial products to enhance oil recovery. Sometimes, chemical treatments are used to clean or condition injection water. Such a chemical treatment has been initiated by Sullivan and Company at the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit. The unit injection water was treated with a mixture of water, methanol, isopropyl alcohol, and three proprietary chemicals. To determine if the chemicals would have an impact on the pilot, it was important to determine the effects of the chemical additives on the growth and metabolism of the bacteria from wells in this field. Two types of media were used: a mineral salts medium with molasses and nitrate, and this medium with 25 ppm of the treatment chemicals added. Samples were collected anaerobically from each of two wells, 1A-9 and 7-2. A sample from each well was inoculated and cultured in the broth tubes of molasses-nitrate medium with and without the chemicals. Culturing temperature was 35{degrees}C. Absorbance, pressure and cell number were checked to determine if the chemicals affected the growth and metabolism of bacteria in the brine samples. 12 figs.

  15. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  16. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  17. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  18. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  19. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  20. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  1. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joe Jones; Clive Barton; Mark Clayton; Al Yablonsky; David Legere

    2010-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 1 of the SkyMine{reg_sign} Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO{sub 2} from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO{sub 2} to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO{sub 2} capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to a point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and proliferation. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at commercial scale. The primary objectives of Phase 1 of the project were to elaborate proven SkyMine{reg_sign} process chemistry to commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design ('Reference Plant Design') for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2. Additionally, during Phase 1, information necessary to inform a DOE determination regarding NEPA requirements for the project was developed, and a comprehensive carbon lifecycle analysis was completed. These items were included in the formal application for funding under Phase 2. All Phase 1 objectives were successfully met on schedule and within budget.

  2. Status of the PEATGAS Pilot Plant Development Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Biljetina, R.; Punwani, D.V.

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Minnesota peat has been successfully processed in a 2 ton/h, continuous, fully integrated pilot plant since April 1981 at the Institute of Gas Technology (IGT) Energy Development Center in Chicago. The reactor system is based on the PEATGAS process for the production of substitute natural gas (SNG) developed by IGT. Three tests have been conducted in the pilot plant at a 500-psig pressure and gasification temperatures up to 1650/sup 0/F. Peat conversions consistently averaged over 90% at the upper temperature levels. These tests were conducted using a slurry feeding system to inject peat, which contained about 10% moisture, into the gasifier. The facility is currently being modified to accept dry peat feed using a two-stage lockhopper system. When this modification is completed, testing will begin with peat containing 30% to 50% moisture. Results of the successful test series using slurry feed and the progress made on the pilot plant lockhopper modification are summarized.

  3. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  4. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  5. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  6. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: 2013 Pilot Overview ...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Score: 2013 Pilot Overview Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: 2013 Pilot Overview provides an overview of the 2013 pilot for the commercial building energy asset score...

  7. Commercial Building Energy Asset Scoring Tool 2013 Pilot Training...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Scoring Tool 2013 Pilot Training Session Commercial Building Energy Asset Scoring Tool 2013 Pilot Training Session overview of the June 18, 2013 pilot training session for the...

  8. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  9. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  11. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  12. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  13. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  14. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  15. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  16. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  18. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  19. The Climate of the McMurdo, Antarctica, Region as Represented by One Year of Forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs a limited-area model, the Polar fifth-generation and seasonal distributions of wind direction and speed, 2-m temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation influence on the near-surface winds. Time-mean vortices occur in the lee of Ross Island, perhaps a factor

  20. FINAL REPORT START-UP AND COMMISSIONING TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-01R0100-2 REV 0 1/20/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BRANDYS M; WILSON CN; SCHATZ TR; GONG W; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from commissioning tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM 1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part BI [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plan. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Report. The DM1200 system will be used for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. This will include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The results presented in this report are from the initial series of short-duration tests that were conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system prior to conducting the main body of development tests that have been planned for this system. These tests were directed primarily at system 'debugging,' operator training, and procedure refinement. The AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing was selected for these tests.

  1. Pilot oil atlas for Louisiana

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bourgoyne, A.T. Jr.; Kimbrell, C.; Gao, Weigang.

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An interdisciplinary research team of engineers, geologists, and computer scientists was assembled at LSU to develop unproved methods for prospecting for bypassed oil and to support oil and gas producers in Louisiana. The overall objective of the project was to develop methods for extending the producing life of several types of reservoirs by reducing the amount of oil being bypassed and abandoned. As part of this work, the team collected information available from public sources for several example reservoirs. One task of the project was to develop a format for the compilation of the extensive but cumbersome Louisiana reservoir data so that it could be used by government and industry to evaluate the resource and plan future activities. The existing information system maintained by Louisiana is a Production Audit Reporting System (PARS). It was designed to allow auditing of oil and gas production and severance taxes associated with this production. It was not intended to be used as a database for determining reservoir recovery efficiency or prospecting for oil and gas. Its use for these purposes, however, has been increasing. The database format suggested in this report would allow production information to be easily displayed by reservoir as well as by lease, unit, or well. The data collected as part of the bypassed-oil study was used to illustrate the proposed new format. This pilot database, or atlas, contains information available for 15 reservoirs. It is recommended that LSU continue to compile and publish database information on the potential for bypassed oil in Louisiana's active reservoirs. This technology-transfer activity should focus each year on those active reservoirs involved in hearings of the Louisiana Office of Conservation. It should also focus on reservoirs being screened by LSU for EOR.

  2. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  3. Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holliday, J R; Klein, B; Rundle, J B; Tiampo, K F

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.

  4. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE conducted its first pilot test of the Asset Score in 2012. Findings from that pilot led to improvements in the overall program and the Asset Scoring Tool. The tool was updated to include the...

  5. HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zimring, Mark

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    renewable energy improvements) 10% of each loan 100% at closing HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program Potential

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  7. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  9. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  10. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  11. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  12. Hydrogen Fuel Pilot Plant and Hydrogen ICE Vehicle Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Francfort (INEEL)

    2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA) teamed with Electric Transportation Applications (ETA) and Arizona Public Service (APS) to develop the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant that produces and compresses hydrogen on site through an electrolysis process by operating a PEM fuel cell in reverse; natural gas is also compressed onsite. The Pilot Plant dispenses 100% hydrogen, 15 to 50% blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas (H/CNG), and 100% CNG via a credit card billing system at pressures up to 5,000 psi. Thirty internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (including Daimler Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles) are operating on 100% hydrogen and 15 to 50% H/CNG blends. Since the Pilot Plant started operating in June 2002, they hydrogen and H/CNG ICE vehicels have accumulated 250,000 test miles.

  13. Blind Pilot Decontamination Ralf R. Mller

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Müller, Ralf R.

    Blind Pilot Decontamination Ralf R. Müller Institute for Digital Communications Friedrich and interference. Ralf Müller (FAU) 14-Mar-2013 2 / 16 #12;Introduction Pilot (De-)Contamination For T transmit estimation. Ralf Müller (FAU) 14-Mar-2013 3 / 16 #12;Introduction Pilot (De-)Contamination For T transmit

  14. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  16. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  17. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  18. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  19. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  20. A Framework of Incorporating Spatio-temporal Forecast in Look-ahead Grid Dispatch with Photovoltaic Generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Chen

    2013-05-02T23:59:59.000Z

    , and is shown to have improved performance compared with conventional persistent model. The tradeoff between communication cost and improved forecast quality is studied using realistic data sets collected from California and Colorado. n IEEE 14 bus system test...

  1. Toward the definition and measurement of the mental workload of transport pilots

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes work performed in the first year of a continuing research project aimed at developing useful methods for measuring the workload of pilots operating aircraft in the ATC system. Good methods of measuring ...

  2. Request for Applications: Collaborative Bioinformatics Pilot Award Center for Integrative Bioinformatics and Experimental Mathematics (CIBEM), URMC

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goldman, Steven A.

    complex computational bioinformatics technologies or systems biology approaches. 3. A pilot study) at the Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, University of Rochester Medical Center (URMC) invites that require both innovative bioinformatics experimental technologies and novel bioinformatics/computational

  3. Analysis of AET and yield predictions under surface and buried drip irrigation systems using the Crop Model PILOTE and Hydrus-2D

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Analysis of AET and yield predictions under surface and buried drip irrigation systems using) or subsurface drip irrigation systems (SDI) have the ability to increase water productivity (WP result in an interesting tool to help identify the optimal irrigation system design under different soil

  4. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  5. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  6. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  9. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  10. DU-AGG pilot plant design study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lessing, P.A.; Gillman, H.

    1996-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) is developing new methods to produce high-density aggregate (artificial rock) primarily consisting of depleted uranium oxide. The objective is to develop a low-cost method whereby uranium oxide powder (UO[sub 2], U[sub 3]O[sub ]8, or UO[sub 3]) can be processed to produce high-density aggregate pieces (DU-AGG) having physical properties suitable for disposal in low-level radioactive disposal facilities or for use as a component of high-density concrete used as shielding for radioactive materials. A commercial company, G-M Systems, conducted a design study for a manufacturing pilot plant to process DU-AGG. The results of that study are included and summarized in this report. Also explained are design considerations, equipment capacities, the equipment list, system operation, layout of equipment in the plant, cost estimates, and the proposed plan and schedule.

  11. Assessment and development of an industrial wet oxidation system for burning waste and low upgrade fuels. Final report, Phase 2B: Pilot demonstration of the MODAR supercritical water oxidation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Stone & Webster Engineering Corporation is Project Manager for the Development and Demonstration of an Industrial Wet Oxidation System for Burning Wastes and Low Grade Fuel. This program has been ongoing through a Cooperative Agreement sponsored by the Department of Energy, initiated in June 1988. This report presents a comprehensive discussion of the results of the demonstration project conducted under this cooperative agreement with the overall goal of advancing the state-of-the-art in the practice of Supercritical Water Oxidation (SCWO). In recognition of the Government`s support of this project, we have endeavored to include all material and results that are not proprietary in as much detail as possible while still protecting MODAR`s proprietary technology. A specific example is in the discussion of materials of construction where results are presented while, in some cases, the specific materials are not identified. The report presents the results chronologically. Background material on the earlier phases (Section 2) provide an understanding of the evolution of the program, and bring all reviewers to a common starting point. Section 3 provides a discussion of activities from October 1991 through July 1992, during which the pilot plant was designed; and various studies including computational fluid dynamic modeling of the reactor vessel, and a process HAZOP analyses were conducted. Significant events during fabrication are presented in Section 4. The experimental results of the test program (December 1992--August 1993) are discussed in Section 5.

  12. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  13. Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Murtagh, Fionn

    electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales

  14. Gaussian Processes for Short-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting Joseph Bockhorst, Chris Barber

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bockhorst, Joseph

    on this task, and attention has shifted to statistical and machine learning approaches. Among the challenges of wind energy into electrical trans- mission systems. The importance of wind forecasts for wind energy throughout a power system must be nearly in balance at all times, 2) because it depends strongly on wind

  15. Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Advanced Statistical T.S. Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , in order to be able to absorb a large fraction of wind power in the electrical systems reliable short from refer- ence MET forecasts to the actual wind farm, wind farm power curve models, dynamical models of art wind power prediction system is outlined in Section 2. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP

  16. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  17. Pilot Scale Advanced Fogging Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demmer, Rick L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fox, Don T. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Archiblad, Kip E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Experiments in 2006 developed a useful fog solution using three different chemical constituents. Optimization of the fog recipe and use of commercially available equipment were identified as needs that had not been addressed. During 2012 development work it was noted that low concentrations of the components hampered coverage and drying in the United Kingdom’s National Nuclear Laboratory’s testing much more so than was evident in the 2006 tests. In fiscal year 2014 the Idaho National Laboratory undertook a systematic optimization of the fogging formulation and conducted a non-radioactive, pilot scale demonstration using commercially available fogging equipment. While not as sophisticated as the equipment used in earlier testing, the new approach is much less expensive and readily available for smaller scale operations. Pilot scale testing was important to validate new equipment of an appropriate scale, optimize the chemistry of the fogging solution, and to realize the conceptual approach.

  18. Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    , Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions

  19. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds statistical load models for various service areas (load pockets), estimates weather-normalized loads

  20. Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting through Visualization of Spatial Diffusion

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brock, David

    Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting. Schuster, Stuart J. Allen, and David L. Brock Company Contact Several companies are interested in this area to implement an operational system for improving new product forecasting in practice. Is · Innovative thinking

  1. PanDA Pilot Submission using Condor-G: Experience and Improvements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao X.; Hover John; Wlodek Tomasz; Wenaus Torre; Frey Jaime; Tannenbaum Todd; Livny Miron

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PanDA (Production and Distributed Analysis) is the workload management system of the ATLAS experiment, used to run managed production and user analysis jobs on the grid. As a late-binding, pilot-based system, the maintenance of a smooth and steady stream of pilot jobs to all grid sites is critical for PanDA operation. The ATLAS Computing Facility (ACF) at BNL, as the ATLAS Tier1 center in the US, operates the pilot submission systems for the US. This is done using the PanDA 'AutoPilot' scheduler component which submits pilot jobs via Condor-G, a grid job scheduling system developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In this paper, we discuss the operation and performance of the Condor-G pilot submission at BNL, with emphasis on the challenges and issues encountered in the real grid production environment. With the close collaboration of Condor and PanDA teams, the scalability and stability of the overall system has been greatly improved over the last year. We review improvements made to Condor-G resulting from this collaboration, including isolation of site-based issues by running a separate Gridmanager for each remote site, introduction of the 'Nonessential' job attribute to allow Condor to optimize its behavior for the specific character of pilot jobs, better understanding and handling of the Gridmonitor process, as well as better scheduling in the PanDA pilot scheduler component. We will also cover the monitoring of the health of the system.

  2. Long Island Smart Metering Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2012-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) Smart Meter Pilots provided invaluable information and experience for future deployments of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), including the deployment planned as part of LIPAâ??s Smart Grid Demonstration Project (DE-OE0000220). LIPA will incorporate lessons learned from this pilot in future deployments, including lessons relating to equipment performance specifications and testing, as well as equipment deployment and tracking issues. LIPA ultimately deployed three AMI technologies instead of the two that were originally contemplated. This enabled LIPA to evaluate multiple systems in field conditions with a relatively small number of meter installations. LIPA experienced a number of equipment and software issues that it did not anticipate, including issues relating to equipment integration, ability to upgrade firmware and software â??over the airâ?ť (as opposed to physically interacting with every meter), and logistical challenges associated with tracking inventory and upgrade status of deployed meters. In addition to evaluating the technology, LIPA also piloted new Time-of-Use (TOU) rates to assess customer acceptance of time-differentiated pricing and to evaluate whether customers would respond by adjusting their activities from peak to non-peak periods. LIPA developed a marketing program to educate customers who received AMI in the pilot areas and to seek voluntary participation in TOU pricing. LIPA also guaranteed participating customers that, for their initial year on the rates, their electricity costs under the TOU rate would not exceed the amount they would have paid under the flat rates they would otherwise enjoy. 62 residential customers chose to participate in the TOU rates, and every one of them saved money during the first year. 61 of them also elected to stay on the TOU rate â?? without the cost guarantee â?? at the end of that year. The customer who chose not to continue on the rate was also the one who achieved the greatest savings. However, after the first year, the customer in question installed equipment that would have made TOU rates a more costly option than the residential flat rate. During the second year, all but one customer saved money. That customer increased usage during peak hours, and as a result saw an increase in annual costs (as compared to the flat rate) of $24.17. The results were less clear for commercial customers, which LIPA attributes to rate design issues that it will take into account for future deployments. LIPA views this pilot as a complete success. Not only is LIPA better prepared for a larger deployment of AMI, but it is confident that residential customers will accept AMI and TOU rates and shift their energy consumption from peak to non-peak periods in response to pricing. On a larger scale, this will benefit LIPA and all of its customers by potentially lowering peak demand when energy costs are highest.

  3. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  4. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  5. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  6. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  7. Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    December, 2014 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Conduct of Maintenance Recovery Plan The Office of Nuclear Safety and Environmental Assessments, within the U.S. Department...

  8. Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    December 2014 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Recovery Plan for Operating Diesel Equipment with Available Underground Airflows. The Office of Nuclear Safety and...

  9. Energy Economic Zone Pilot Program (Florida)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    In the 2009 Legislative Session, the Florida Legislature established the Pilot Program to address economic development and the creation of energy efficient land use patterns. The Energy Economic...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  11. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  12. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  13. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  14. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  15. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naĂŻve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  16. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  17. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  18. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: Pilot Findings and Program...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Score: Pilot Findings and Program Update Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: Pilot Findings and Program Update The webinar was held on April 16, 2014, to share the findings...

  19. Algenol Biofuels Inc., Integrated Pilot-Scale Biorefinery

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Integrated Pilot- Scale Biorefinery for Producing Ethanol from Hybrid Algae Algenol Biofuels Inc., together with its partners, will construct an integrated pilot-scale...

  20. Analysis of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Samples by the...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Analysis of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Samples by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) Analysis of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Samples by the Savannah River...

  1. Clean Energy Works Portland Pilot Process Evaluation | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Energy Works Portland Pilot Process Evaluation Clean Energy Works Portland Pilot Process Evaluation This is a document from Research Into Action Inc., posted to the website of the...

  2. Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Presentation-given at the Fall 2011 Federal...

  3. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have Banner Year in 2013 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have Banner Year in 2013 December 24, 2013 -...

  4. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Waste Analysis Plan The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Waste Analysis Plan This...

  5. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Analysis of Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Isolation Pilot Plant Samples: Integrated Summary Report Oak Ridge National Laboratory Analysis of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Samples: Integrated Summary Report This document...

  6. Source Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Release Quantity Source Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Release Quantity This document was...

  7. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cańizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  8. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  9. Advanced engineering environment pilot project.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwegel, Jill; Pomplun, Alan R.; Abernathy, Rusty (Parametric Technology Corporation, Needham, MA)

    2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Advanced Engineering Environment (AEE) is a concurrent engineering concept that enables real-time process tooling design and analysis, collaborative process flow development, automated document creation, and full process traceability throughout a product's life cycle. The AEE will enable NNSA's Design and Production Agencies to collaborate through a singular integrated process. Sandia National Laboratories and Parametric Technology Corporation (PTC) are working together on a prototype AEE pilot project to evaluate PTC's product collaboration tools relative to the needs of the NWC. The primary deliverable for the project is a set of validated criteria for defining a complete commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution to deploy the AEE across the NWC.

  10. Conceptual design of a black liquor gasification pilot plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kelleher, E. G.

    1987-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In July 1985, Champion International completed a study of kraft black liquor gasification and use of the product gases in a combined cycle cogeneration system based on gas turbines. That study indicated that gasification had high potential as an alternative to recovery boiler technology and offered many advantages. This paper describes the design of the plant, the construction of the pilot plant, and finally presents data from operation of the plant.

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  12. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  13. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  14. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns MarĂ­a J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  15. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, Joăo Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  19. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  20. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The following provides a summary of the specific issues addressed in this FY-95 Annual Update as they relate to the CH TRU safety bases: Executive Summary; Site Characteristics; Principal Design and Safety Criteria; Facility Design and Operation; Hazards and Accident Analysis; Derivation of Technical Safety Requirements; Radiological and Hazardous Material Protection; Institutional Programs; Quality Assurance; and Decontamination and Decommissioning. The System Design Descriptions`` (SDDS) for the WIPP were reviewed and incorporated into Chapter 3, Principal Design and Safety Criteria and Chapter 4, Facility Design and Operation. This provides the most currently available final engineering design information on waste emplacement operations throughout the disposal phase up to the point of permanent closure. Also, the criteria which define the TRU waste to be accepted for disposal at the WIPP facility were summarized in Chapter 3 based on the WAC for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.`` This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) documents the safety analyses that develop and evaluate the adequacy of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Contact-Handled Transuranic Wastes (WIPP CH TRU) safety bases necessary to ensure the safety of workers, the public and the environment from the hazards posed by WIPP waste handling and emplacement operations during the disposal phase and hazards associated with the decommissioning and decontamination phase. The analyses of the hazards associated with the long-term (10,000 year) disposal of TRU and TRU mixed waste, and demonstration of compliance with the requirements of 40 CFR 191, Subpart B and 40 CFR 268.6 will be addressed in detail in the WIPP Final Certification Application scheduled for submittal in October 1996 (40 CFR 191) and the No-Migration Variance Petition (40 CFR 268.6) scheduled for submittal in June 1996. Section 5.4, Long-Term Waste Isolation Assessment summarizes the current status of the assessment.

  1. NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used to protect hardware operating in high temperature environments, such as combustor liners and gas turbine

  2. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  3. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  4. Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

  5. Portland General Electric Co. Pilot Evaluation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Portland General Electric Co. Pilot Evaluation and Impact Measurement Revised: October 22, 2004 Portland General Electric Co. 2 Pilot Evaluation and Impact Measurement Forward to Revised Report Space Heat Portland General Electric Co. 3 Executive Summary On August 30, 2002, PGE filed Advice No. 02

  6. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  7. Voidage and pressure profile characteristics of sand-iron ore-coal-FCC single-particle systems in the riser of a pilot plant circulating fluidized bed

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, M.; Meikap, B.C.; Saha, R.K. [Indian Institute for Technology, Kharagpur (India). Dept. for Chemical Engineering

    2008-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Hydrodynamic behaviors of single system of particles were investigated in a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) unit. Particles belonging to Geldart groups A and B like sand of various sizes (90, 300, 417, 522, 599, and 622 mu m), FCC catalyst (120 mu m), iron ore (166 and 140 {mu} m), and coal (335 and 168 {mu} m) were used to study the hydrodynamic characteristics. Superficial air velocity used in the present study ranged between 2.01 and 4.681 m/s and corresponding mass fluxes were 12.5-50 kg/(m{sup 2} s). A CFB needs the creation of some special hydrodynamic conditions, namely a certain combination of superficial gas velocity, solids circulation rate, particle diameter, density of particle, etc. which can give rise to a state wherein the solid particles are subjected to an upward velocity greater than the terminal or free fall velocity of the majority of the individual particles. The hydrodynamics of the bed was investigated in depth and theoretical analysis is presented to support the findings. Based on gas-solid momentum balance in the riser, a distinction between apparent and real voidage has been made. The effects of acceleration and friction on the real voidage have been estimated. Results indicated a 0.995 voidage for higher superficial gas velocity of 4.681. m/s.

  8. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04T23:59:59.000Z

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  9. 500-kW DCHX pilot-plant evaluation testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hlinak, A.; Lee, T.; Loback, J.; Nichols, K.; Olander, R.; Oshmyansky, S.; Roberts, G.; Werner, D.

    1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Field tests with the 500 kW Direct Contact Pilot Plant were conducted utilizing brine from well Mesa 6-2. The tests were intended to develop comprehensive performance data, design criteria, and economic factors for the direct contact power plant. The tests were conducted in two phases. The first test phase was to determine specific component performance of the DCHX, turbine, condensers and pumps, and to evaluate chemical mass balances of non-condensible gases in the IC/sub 4/ loop and IC/sub 4/ in the brine stream. The second test phase was to provide a longer term run at nearly fixed operating conditions in order to evaluate plant performance and identify operating cost data for the pilot plant. During these tests the total accumulated run time on major system components exceeded 1180 hours with 777 hours on the turbine prime mover. Direct contact heat exchanger performance exceeded the design prediction.

  10. The pilot way to Grid resources using glideinWMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sfiligoi, Igor; /Fermilab; Bradley, Daniel C.; /Wisconsin U., Madison; Holzman, Burt; Mhashilkar, Parag; /Fermilab; Padhi, Sanjay; Wurthwrin, Frank; /UC, San Diego

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Grid computing has become very popular in big and widespread scientific communities with high computing demands, like high energy physics. Computing resources are being distributed over many independent sites with only a thin layer of Grid middleware shared between them. This deployment model has proven to be very convenient for computing resource providers, but has introduced several problems for the users of the system, the three major being the complexity of job scheduling, the nonuniformity of computer resources, and the lack of good job monitoring. Pilot jobs address all the above problems by creating a virtual private computing pool on top of Grid resources. This paper presents both the general pilot concept, as well as a concrete implementation, called glideinWMS, deployed in the Open Science Grid.

  11. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  12. TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Higgins, Paul A.; Gallagher, Peter T. [Astrophysics Research Group, School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2 (Ireland); McAteer, R. T. James, E-mail: shaun.bloomfield@tcd.ie [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States)

    2012-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

  13. Costilla County Biodiesel Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doon, Ben; Quintana, Dan

    2011-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

    The Costilla County Biodiesel Pilot Project has demonstrated the compatibility of biodiesel technology and economics on a local scale. The project has been committed to making homegrown biodiesel a viable form of community economic development. The project has benefited by reducing risks by building the facility gradually and avoiding large initial outlays of money for facilities and technologies. A primary advantage of this type of community-scale biodiesel production is that it allows for a relatively independent, local solution to fuel production. Successfully using locally sourced feedstocks and putting the fuel into local use emphasizes the feasibility of different business models under the biodiesel tent and that there is more than just a one size fits all template for successful biodiesel production.

  14. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  15. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  16. Energy Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferland, K.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation will address results from a pilot project with 10 chemical plants on energy management systems and the development of an energy efficiency plant certification program....

  17. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOriginEducationVideo »UsageSecretary ofSmallConfidential,2 Solar BackgroundWakePowersSystems

  18. Fuel control for gas turbine with continuous pilot flame

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Swick, Robert M. (Indianapolis, IN)

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An improved fuel control for a gas turbine engine having a continuous pilot flame and a fuel distribution system including a pump drawing fuel from a source and supplying a line to the main fuel nozzle of the engine, the improvement being a control loop between the pump outlet and the pump inlet to bypass fuel, an electronically controlled throttle valve to restrict flow in the control loop when main nozzle demand exists and to permit substantially unrestricted flow without main nozzle demand, a minimum flow valve in the control loop downstream of the throttle valve to maintain a minimum pressure in the loop ahead of the flow valve, a branch tube from the pilot flame nozzle to the control loop between the throttle valve and the minimum flow valve, an orifice in the branch tube, and a feedback tube from the branch tube downstream of the orifice to the minimum flow valve, the minimum flow valve being operative to maintain a substantially constant pressure differential across the orifice to maintain constant fuel flow to the pilot flame nozzle.

  19. Journey to Leadership Certificate Program (Pilot)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office of Learning and Workforce Development is pleased to announce a pilot training program for DOE entry-level professionals.  The program orientation is scheduled for June 4, 2014.For Entry...

  20. A Pilot Plant: The Fastest Path to

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    synergy with many IFE concepts. #12;7/14 Pilot Plant PMI Challenges Similar to PMI Challenges Projected collection and tritium clean-up CTF, PP or Demo: All Would Need New PMI Solutions. #12;8/14 · A strong

  1. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  2. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  3. Peat-Gasification Pilot-Plant Program. Final report, April 9, 1980-March 31, 1983

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this program was twofold: (1) to modify an existing pilot plant and (2) to operate the pilot plant with peat to produce substitute natural gas (SNG). Activities included the design, procurement, and installation of peat drying, grinding, screening, and lockhopper feed systems. Equipment installed for the program complements the existing pilot plant facility. After shakedown of the new feed preparation equipment (drying, screening, and crushing) was successfully completed, the first integrated pilot plant test was conducted in April 1981 to provide solids flow data and operating experience with the new PEATGAS gasifier configuration. Three gasification tests were subsequently conducted using the existing slurry feed system. The lockhopper feed system, capable of providing a continuous, measured flow of 1 to 4 tons of dry feed at pressures up to 500 psig, was then successfully integrated with the gasifier. Two gasification tests were conducted, expanding the data to more economical operating conditions. The operation of the PEATGAS pilot plant has confirmed that peat is an excellent raw material for SNG production. Peat conversions over 90% were consistently achieved at moderate gasification temperatures and at sinter-free conditions. A large data base was established for Minnesota peat at pressure 1.0. The technical feasibility of the PEATGAS process has been successfully demonstrated. However, an economic assessment of the peat gasification process indicates that the cost of the peat feedstock delivered to a plant site has a significant effect on the cost of the product SNG. 28 figures, 36 tables.

  4. CMU-ITC-84-036 Pilot DeNoyment of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CMU-ITC-84-036 Pilot DeNoyment of the ITC "File System John H Howard September 28, 1984 Introduction Our grand plan for developing the ITC file system calls for an initial version which establishes, and if we do a poor job of it we may be faced with a continuing job of hand-holding. Therefore I am

  5. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  6. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  7. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  8. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  9. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  10. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  11. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  12. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  13. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  14. Industrial Gas Turbine Engine Catalytic Pilot Combustor-Prototype Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shahrokh Etemad; Benjamin Baird; Sandeep Alavandi; William Pfefferle

    2009-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    PCI has developed and demonstrated its Rich Catalytic Lean-burn (RCL®) technology for industrial and utility gas turbines to meet DOEâ??s goals of low single digit emissions. The technology offers stable combustion with extended turndown allowing ultra-low emissions without the cost of exhaust after-treatment and further increasing overall efficiency (avoidance of after-treatment losses). The objective of the work was to develop and demonstrate emission benefits of the catalytic technology to meet strict emissions regulations. Two different applications of the RCL® concept were demonstrated: RCL® catalytic pilot and Full RCL®. The RCL® catalytic pilot was designed to replace the existing pilot (a typical source of high NOx production) in the existing Dry Low NOx (DLN) injector, providing benefit of catalytic combustion while minimizing engine modification. This report discusses the development and single injector and engine testing of a set of T70 injectors equipped with RCL® pilots for natural gas applications. The overall (catalytic pilot plus main injector) program NOx target of less than 5 ppm (corrected to 15% oxygen) was achieved in the T70 engine for the complete set of conditions with engine CO emissions less than 10 ppm. Combustor acoustics were low (at or below 0.1 psi RMS) during testing. The RCL® catalytic pilot supported engine startup and shutdown process without major modification of existing engine controls. During high pressure testing, the catalytic pilot showed no incidence of flashback or autoignition while operating over a wide range of flame temperatures. In applications where lower NOx production is required (i.e. less than 3 ppm), in parallel, a Full RCL® combustor was developed that replaces the existing DLN injector providing potential for maximum emissions reduction. This concept was tested at industrial gas turbine conditions in a Solar Turbines, Incorporated high-pressure (17 atm.) combustion rig and in a modified Solar Turbines, Incorporated Saturn engine rig. High pressure single-injector rig and modified engine rig tests demonstrated NOx less than 2 ppm and CO less than 10 ppm over a wide flame temperature operating regime with low combustion noise (<0.15% peak-to-peak). Minimum NOx for the optimized engine retrofit Full RCL® designs was less than 1 ppm with CO emissions less than 10 ppm. Durability testing of the substrate and catalyst material was successfully demonstrated at pressure and temperature showing long term stable performance of the catalytic reactor element. Stable performance of the reactor element was achieved when subjected to durability tests (>5000 hours) at simulated engine conditions (P=15 atm, Tin=400C/750F.). Cyclic tests simulating engine trips was also demonstrated for catalyst reliability. In addition to catalyst tests, substrate oxidation testing was also performed for downselected substrate candidates for over 25,000 hours. At the end of the program, an RCL® catalytic pilot system has been developed and demonstrated to produce NOx emissions of less than 3 ppm (corrected to 15% O2) for 100% and 50% load operation in a production engine operating on natural gas. In addition, a Full RCL® combustor has been designed and demonstrated less than 2 ppm NOx (with potential to achieve 1 ppm) in single injector and modified engine testing. The catalyst/substrate combination has been shown to be stable up to 5500 hrs in simulated engine conditions.

  15. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Salt Decontamination Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rick Demmer; Stephen Reese

    2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    On February 14, 2014, americium and plutonium contamination was released in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt caverns. At the request of WIPP’s operations contractor, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) personnel developed several methods of decontaminating WIPP salt, using surrogate contaminants and also americium (241Am). The effectiveness of the methods is evaluated qualitatively, and to the extent possible, quantitatively. One of the requirements of this effort was delivering initial results and recommendations within a few weeks. That requirement, in combination with the limited scope of the project, made in-depth analysis impractical in some instances. Of the methods tested (dry brushing, vacuum cleaning, water washing, strippable coatings, and mechanical grinding), the most practical seems to be water washing. Effectiveness is very high, and it is very easy and rapid to deploy. The amount of wastewater produced (2 L/m2) would be substantial and may not be easy to manage, but the method is the clear winner from a usability perspective. Removable surface contamination levels (smear results) from the strippable coating and water washing coupons found no residual removable contamination. Thus, whatever is left is likely adhered to (or trapped within) the salt. The other option that shows promise is the use of a fixative barrier. Bartlett Nuclear, Inc.’s Polymeric Barrier System (PBS) proved the most durable of the coatings tested. The coatings were not tested for contaminant entrapment, only for coating integrity and durability.

  16. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  17. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  18. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  19. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  20. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  1. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  2. Experimental plan for the assessment of air toxic emissions from a pilot-scale combustion unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hargis, R.A.; Pennline, H.W. [Dept. of Energy, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Pittsburgh Energy Technology Center

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The operation of a 500-pound-per-hour pilot-scale combustion unit will be characterized in terms of the formation, distribution, and fate of toxic substances. The coal fired during the air toxics testing will be the same coal batch that had been fired in a full-scale utility boiler during a recent assessment of air toxic emissions. A description of the pilot unit and expected operating conditions during the air toxics testing is provided, along with a summary of the test plan. This test plan is designed to obtain the necessary data on the concentration of trace elements associated with the vapor phase, particulate phase, and particulate size fraction enabling a comparison of these results form the pilot unit and the full-scale utility. Calculation of material balances around the pilot combustion unit, the baghouse, and the overall system as well as baghouse removal efficiencies will be performed. Based on the results of this air toxics characterization effort, an assessment will be made of the value of the pilot unit as a facility for the evaluation of sampling and analytical improvements, development of continuous emissions monitors, and future control systems evaluations.

  3. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  4. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  5. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  6. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  7. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  8. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  9. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  10. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  11. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  12. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  13. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  14. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  15. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  18. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  19. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  20. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  1. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  2. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  3. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012 (ASER) is to provide information required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting. Specifically, the ASER presents summary environmental data to: Characterize site environmental management performance; Summarize environmental occurrences and responses reported during the calendar year; Confirm compliance with environmental standards and requirements; Highlight significant environmental accomplishments, including progress toward the DOE Environmental Sustainability Goals made through implementation of the WIPP Environmental Management System (EMS).

  4. Pilot Project: Nuclear Safety Information Dashboard | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directed offOCHCO Overview OCHCO Overview OCHCO OCHCOControlGuide to aEnergy LivingSystemPilot Project:

  5. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  6. P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronics Systems," Logistics Spectrum, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 25-28, April-June 2004.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sandborn, Peter

    of sustainment-dominated systems include: avionics, military systems, and industrial equipment. Such products with their redesign due to stringent qualification/certification requirements. Ultimately systems are redesigned one-recurring engineering and system re-qualification costs. Unlike high-volume commercial products in which redesign

  7. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  8. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  9. Pilot-scale treatability test plan for the 100-HR-3 operable unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document presents the treatability test plan for pilot-scale pump-and-treat testing at the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. The test will be conducted in fulfillment of interim Milestone M-15-06E to begin pilot-scale pump-and-treat operations by August 1994. The scope of the test was determined based on the results of lab/bench-scale tests (WHC 1993a) conducted in fulfillment of Milestone M-15-06B. These milestones were established per agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Washington State Department of Ecology and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and documented on Hanford Federal of Ecology Facility Agreement and Consent Order Change Control Form M-15-93-02. This test plan discusses a pilot-scale pump-and-treat test for the chromium plume associated with the D Reactor portion of the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. Data will be collected during the pilot test to assess the effectiveness, operating parameters, and resource needs of the ion exchange (IX) pump-and-treat system. The test will provide information to assess the ability to remove contaminants by extracting groundwater from wells and treating extracted groundwater using IX. Bench-scale tests were conducted previously in which chromium VI was identified as the primary contaminant of concern in the 100-D reactor plume. The DOWEX 21K{trademark} resin was recommended for pilot-scale testing of an IX pump-and-treat system. The bench-scale test demonstrated that the system could remove chromium VI from groundwater to concentrations less than 50 ppb. The test also identified process parameters to monitor during pilot-scale testing. Water will be re-injected into the plume using wells outside the zone of influence and upgradient of the extraction well.

  10. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  11. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  12. amphipod pilot species: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    of - Research Archive Summary: This report provides an evaluation of the UK LOCKSS pilot project as it reaches the end of its pilot phase. LOCKSS (Lots Of Copies Keep Stuff Safe)...

  13. DOE/WIPP-12-3487 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AND RECOVERY ACT AND SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL ACTDraft DOE/WIPP-12-3487 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Biennial Environmental Compliance Report United States Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Carlsbad Field Office Carlsbad, New Mexico

  14. Results from the Texas Pilot Project on Superior Energy Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferland, K.

    This presentation will address the outcomes to date from the Texas Pilot Project on Superior Energy Performance. Five plants in Texas are participating in this national pilot project, which began July 2008....

  15. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  16. HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zimring, Mark; Hoffman, Ian

    2010-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently announced the creation of a pilot loan program for home energy improvements. The PowerSaver loan program is a new, energy-focused variant of the Title I Property Improvement Loan Insurance Program (Title I Program) and is planned for introduction in early 2011. The PowerSaver pilot will provide lender insurance for secured and unsecured loans up to $25,000 to single family homeowners. These loans will specifically target residential energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements. HUD estimates the two-year pilot will fund approximately 24,000 loans worth up to $300 million; the program is not capped. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), HUD's mortgage insurance unit, will provide up to $25 million in grants as incentives to participating lenders. FHA is seeking lenders in communities with existing programs for promoting residential energy upgrades.

  17. Operating Experience of the 20-MW AFBC Pilot Plant

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stephens, E. A. Jr.

    -scale demonstration of atmospheric fluidized bed combustion (AFBC) with the construction and operation of the 20-MW AFBC Pilot Plant. The pilot plant was built to bridge the gap between the small process development units and utility-scale demonstration plants... the operation of the pilot plant has encouraged TVA and others to move forward with utility-scale demonstration of fluidized bed combustion. TVA's operating experience at the 20-MW AFBC Pilot Plant is discussed. [NTRODUCT ION The Tennessee Valley Authority...

  18. Case studies of energy efficiency financing in the original five pilot states, 1993-1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farhar, B.C.; Collins, N.E.; Walsh, R.W.

    1997-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in state-level programs in energy efficiency financing programs that are linked with home energy rating systems. Case studies are presented of programs in five states using a federal pilot program to amortize the costs of home energy improvements. The case studies present background information, describe the states` program, list preliminary evaluation data and findings, and discuss problems and solution encountered in the programs. A comparison of experiences in pilot states will be used to provide guidelines for program implementers, federal agencies, and Congress. 5 refs.

  19. Materials performance in coal gasification pilot plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Judkins, R.R.; Bradley, R.A.

    1987-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the results of several materials testing projects which were conducted in operating coal gasification pilot plants in the United States. These projects were designed to test potential materials of construction for commercial plants under actual operating conditions. Pilot plants included in the overall test program included the Hygas, Conoco Coal, Synthane, Bi-Gas, Peatgas (Hygas operating with peat), Battelle, U-Gas, Westinghouse (now KRW), General Electric (Gegas), and Mountain Fuel Resources plants. Test results for a large variety of alloys are discussed and conclusions regarding applicability of these materials in coal gasification environments are presented. 14 refs., 2 tabs.

  20. Treatment of septage in sludge drying reed beds: a case study on pilot-scale beds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Treatment of septage in sludge drying reed beds: a case study on pilot-scale beds S. Troesch***, A systems by local authorities. This will result in a large increase of the quantity of sludge from septic to treat this sludge because they may have reached their nominal load or they are not so numerous in rural

  1. A Text Mining Approach to Tracking Elements of Decision Making: a pilot study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Text Mining Approach to Tracking Elements of Decision Making: a pilot study C. Chibelushi, B industrial problems in system engineering projects. The aim of our research is to apply text mining and rework. Text mining is similar to data mining: while data mining seeks to discover meaningful patterns

  2. Chemistry research and development. Progress report, December 1978-May 1979. [Component, pilot plant, instrumentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miner, F. J.

    1980-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Progress and activities are reported on component development, pilot plant development, and instrumentation and statistical systems. Specific items studied include processing of pond sludge, transport of radioactive materials and wastes, corrosion, decontamination and cleaning, fluidized-bed incineration, Pu contamination of soils, chemical analysis, radiometric analysis, security. (DLC)

  3. Texas AgriLife Research with General Atomics Pilots Microalgae Ponds in Pecos BIOENERGY PROGRAM

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Texas AgriLife Research with General Atomics Pilots Microalgae Ponds in Pecos BIOENERGY PROGRAM systems for microalgae capable of producing biofuels. Diesel and jet fuels are critical to our nation from renewable sources by 2020. Energy and financial analysts acknowledge that the world has entered

  4. Wind-To-Hydrogen Energy Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ron Rebenitsch; Randall Bush; Allen Boushee; Brad G. Stevens; Kirk D. Williams; Jeremy Woeste; Ronda Peters; Keith Bennett

    2009-04-24T23:59:59.000Z

    WIND-TO-HYDROGEN ENERGY PILOT PROJECT: BASIN ELECTRIC POWER COOPERATIVE In an effort to address the hurdles of wind-generated electricity (specifically wind's intermittency and transmission capacity limitations) and support development of electrolysis technology, Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC) conducted a research project involving a wind-to-hydrogen system. Through this effort, BEPC, with the support of the Energy & Environmental Research Center at the University of North Dakota, evaluated the feasibility of dynamically scheduling wind energy to power an electrolysis-based hydrogen production system. The goal of this project was to research the application of hydrogen production from wind energy, allowing for continued wind energy development in remote wind-rich areas and mitigating the necessity for electrical transmission expansion. Prior to expending significant funding on equipment and site development, a feasibility study was performed. The primary objective of the feasibility study was to provide BEPC and The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) with sufficient information to make a determination whether or not to proceed with Phase II of the project, which was equipment procurement, installation, and operation. Four modes of operation were considered in the feasibility report to evaluate technical and economic merits. Mode 1 - scaled wind, Mode 2 - scaled wind with off-peak, Mode 3 - full wind, and Mode 4 - full wind with off-peak In summary, the feasibility report, completed on August 11, 2005, found that the proposed hydrogen production system would produce between 8000 and 20,000 kg of hydrogen annually depending on the mode of operation. This estimate was based on actual wind energy production from one of the North Dakota (ND) wind farms of which BEPC is the electrical off-taker. The cost of the hydrogen produced ranged from $20 to $10 per kg (depending on the mode of operation). The economic sensitivity analysis performed as part of the feasibility study showed that several factors can greatly affect, both positively and negatively, the "per kg" cost of hydrogen. After a September 15, 2005, meeting to evaluate the advisability of funding Phase II of the project DOE concurred with BEPC that Phase I results did warrant a "go" recommendation to proceed with Phase II activities. The hydrogen production system was built by Hydrogenics and consisted of several main components: hydrogen production system, gas control panel, hydrogen storage assembly and hydrogen-fueling dispenser The hydrogen production system utilizes a bipolar alkaline electrolyzer nominally capable of producing 30 Nm3/h (2.7 kg/h). The hydrogen is compressed to 6000 psi and delivered to an on-site three-bank cascading storage assembly with 80 kg of storage capacity. Vehicle fueling is made possible through a Hydrogenics-provided gas control panel and dispenser able to fuel vehicles to 5000 psi. A key component of this project was the development of a dynamic scheduling system to control the wind energy's variable output to the electrolyzer cell stacks. The dynamic scheduling system received an output signal from the wind farm, processed this signal based on the operational mode, and dispatched the appropriate signal to the electrolyzer cell stacks. For the study BEPC chose to utilize output from the Wilton wind farm located in central ND. Site design was performed from May 2006 through August 2006. Site construction activities were from August to November 2006 which involved earthwork, infrastructure installation, and concrete slab construction. From April - October 2007, the system components were installed and connected. Beginning in November 2007, the system was operated in a start-up/shakedown mode. Because of numerous issues, the start-up/shakedown period essentially lasted until the end of January 2008, at which time a site acceptance test was performed. Official system operation began on February 14, 2008, and continued through the end of December 2008. Several issues continued to prevent consistent operation, resulting in operation o

  5. High Temperature Calcination - MACT Upgrade Equipment Pilot Plant Test

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard D. Boardman; B. H. O'Brien; N. R. Soelberg; S. O. Bates; R. A. Wood; C. St. Michel

    2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    About one million gallons of acidic, hazardous, and radioactive sodium-bearing waste are stored in stainless steel tanks at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), which is a major operating facility of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Calcination at high-temperature conditions (600 C, with alumina nitrate and calcium nitrate chemical addition to the feed) is one of four options currently being considered by the Department of Energy for treatment of the remaining tank wastes. If calcination is selected for future processing of the sodium-bearing waste, it will be necessary to install new off-gas control equipment in the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) to comply with the Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards for hazardous waste combustors and incinerators. This will require, as a minimum, installing a carbon bed to reduce mercury emissions from their current level of up to 7,500 to <45 {micro}g/dscm, and a staged combustor to reduce unburned kerosene fuel in the off-gas discharge to <100 ppm CO and <10 ppm hydrocarbons. The staged combustor will also reduce NOx concentrations of about 35,000 ppm by 90-95%. A pilot-plant calcination test was completed in a newly constructed 15-cm diameter calciner vessel. The pilot-plant facility was equipped with a prototype MACT off-gas control system, including a highly efficient cyclone separator and off-gas quench/venturi scrubber for particulate removal, a staged combustor for unburned hydrocarbon and NOx destruction, and a packed activated carbon bed for mercury removal and residual chloride capture. Pilot-plant testing was performed during a 50-hour system operability test January 14-16, followed by a 100-hour high-temperature calcination pilot-plant calcination run January 19-23. Two flowsheet blends were tested: a 50-hour test with an aluminum-to-alkali metal molar ratio (AAR) of 2.25, and a 50-hour test with an AAR of 1.75. Results of the testing indicate that sodium-bearing waste can be successfully calcined at 600 C with an AAR of 1.75. Unburned hydrocarbons are reduced to less than 10 ppm (7% O2, dry basis), with >90% reduction of NOx emissions. Mercury removal by the carbon bed reached 99.99%, surpassing the control efficiency needed to meet MACT emissions standards. No deleterious impacts on the carbon bed were observed during the tests. The test results imply that upgrading the NWCF calciner with a more efficient cyclone separator and the proposed MACT equipment can process the remaining tanks wastes in 3 years or less, and comply with the MACT standards.

  6. Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent Program)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Provides an overview of the Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program aimed at reducing barriers to widespread adoption of residential energy efficient retrofits. From the Residential Energy Efficiency Solutions Conference 2012.

  7. Analysis of PG E's residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

    1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecasts for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.

  8. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  9. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  10. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  11. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  12. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  13. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  14. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  15. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  16. 46th Street Pilot Street Lighting Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Minnesota, University of

    Street to 48th Street) as standard high-pressure sodium (HPS) lighting comparison corridor #12;The over time #12;Initial Lighting Comparison #12;Lighting Project Location #12;Street Light Layout 3046th Street Pilot Street Lighting Project A Joint Venture: Hennepin County & City of Minneapolis

  17. Argonne National Laboratory's Recycling Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spangenberger, Jeff; Jody, Sam

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Argonne has a Recycling Pilot Plant designed to save the non-metal portions of junked cars. Here, program managers demonstrate how plastic shredder residue can be recycled. (Currently these automotive leftovers are sent to landfills.) For more information, visit Argonne's Transportation Technology R&D Center Web site at http://www.transportation.anl.gov.

  18. Argonne National Laboratory's Recycling Pilot Plant

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Spangenberger, Jeff; Jody, Sam;

    2013-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

    Argonne has a Recycling Pilot Plant designed to save the non-metal portions of junked cars. Here, program managers demonstrate how plastic shredder residue can be recycled. (Currently these automotive leftovers are sent to landfills.) For more information, visit Argonne's Transportation Technology R&D Center Web site at http://www.transportation.anl.gov.

  19. Thermochemical Conversion Pilot Plant (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The state-of-the-art thermochemical conversion pilot plant includes several configurable, complementary unit operations for testing and developing various reactors, filters, catalysts, and other unit operations. NREL engineers and scientists as well as clients can test new processes and feedstocks in a timely, cost-effective, and safe manner to obtain extensive performance data on processes or equipment.

  20. Portland General Electric Company Pilot Evaluation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . The purposes of this pilot were to measure the load impact of turning off water heaters during peak hours, test customer acceptance of remote control of their water heater, determine the company's capability to control) was installed in each participant's home. Water heaters were shut off remotely (curtailed), using the paging

  1. NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and the Ohio State University, and is supported by the National Weather Service. Model output is available 734-741-2235 www.glerl.noaa.gov PREDICTING WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE NEARSHORE ZONE Most human Lakes coasts. To date, two high resolution grid experimental models have been developed for Lake

  2. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  3. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  4. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  5. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  8. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  9. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  10. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  11. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  12. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  13. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  14. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  15. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  16. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  19. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  20. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  2. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  3. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  4. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  5. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  6. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  7. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  8. Pilot plant used to develop load and pressure controller

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nagata, Kazue; Yamada, Toshihiro; Hiza, Tomoyuki

    1997-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Viewed from the perspective of the power-generation mixture in Japan, nuclear power plants will continue to be operated to meet the base load. Meanwhile, integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants will be required to serve as thermal power plants to cover the middle load, as is the case with conventional thermal power plants. In terms of operational performance, therefore, IGCC power plants will need to have a capability of following a wide range of load demand at high speed. For this purpose, a load and pressure controller was developed and tested during the operational research on a 200 tons/day entrained flow IGCC pilot plant at the Nakoso Power Station by the Engineering Research Association for IGCC Power Systems (IGC Association). This article reports on the development of the load and pressure controller and the results of the control test carried out to check the load follow capability of the pilot plant, while touching upon the simulation study also being conducted.

  9. A pilot-scale continuous-jet hydrate reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Szymcek, Phillip [ORNL; McCallum, Scott [Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU); Taboada Serrano, Patricia L [ORNL; Tsouris, Costas [ORNL

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A three-phase, pilot-scale continuous-jet hydrate reactor (CJHR) has been developed for the production of gas hydrates. The reactor receives water and a hydrate-forming species to produce the solid gas hydrate. The CJHR has been tested for the production of CO{sub 2} hydrate for the purpose of ocean carbon sequestration. Formation of CO{sub 2} hydrate was investigated using various reactor/injector designs in a 72-l high-pressure vessel. Designs of the CJHR varied from single-capillary to multiple-capillary injectors that dispersed (1) liquid CO{sub 2} into water or (2) water into liquid CO{sub 2}. The novel injector is designed to improve the dispersion of one reactant into the other and, thus, eliminate mass transfer barriers that negatively affect conversion. An additional goal was an increase in production rates of two orders of magnitude. The designed injectors were tested in both distilled and saline water. Hydrate production experiments were conducted at different CO{sub 2} and water flow rates and for pressures and temperatures equivalent to intermediate ocean depths (1100-1700 m). The pilot-scale reactor with the novel injection system successfully increased hydrate production rates and efficiency.

  10. Field Testing of a Wet FGD Additive for Enhanced Mercury Control - Pilot-Scale Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Topical Report summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT42309, ''Field Testing of a Wet FGD Additive.'' The objective of the project is to demonstrate the use of a flue gas desulfurization (FGD) additive, Degussa Corporation's TMT-15, to prevent the reemissions of elemental mercury (Hg{sup 0}) in flue gas exiting wet FGD systems on coal-fired boilers. Furthermore, the project intends to demonstrate that the additive can be used to precipitate most of the mercury (Hg) removed in the wet FGD system as a fine TMT salt that can be separated from the FGD liquor and bulk solid byproducts for separate disposal. The project will conduct pilot and full-scale tests of the TMT-15 additive in wet FGD absorbers. The tests are intended to determine required additive dosage requirements to prevent Hg{sup 0} reemissions and to separate mercury from the normal FGD byproducts for three coal types: Texas lignite/Power River Basin (PRB) coal blend, high-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal, and low-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal. The project team consists of URS Group, Inc., EPRI, TXU Generation Company LP, Southern Company, and Degussa Corporation. TXU Generation has provided the Texas lignite/PRB co-fired test site for pilot FGD tests, Monticello Steam Electric Station Unit 3. Southern Company is providing the low-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal host site for wet scrubbing tests, as well as the pilot and full-scale jet bubbling reactor (JBR) FGD systems to be tested. A third utility, to be named later, will provide the high-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal full-scale FGD test site. Degussa Corporation is providing the TMT-15 additive and technical support to the test program. The project is being conducted in six tasks. Of the six project tasks, Task 1 involves project planning and Task 6 involves management and reporting. The other four tasks involve field testing on FGD systems, either at pilot or full scale. The four tasks include: Task 2 - Pilot Additive Testing in Texas Lignite Flue Gas; Task 3 - Full-scale FGD Additive Testing in High Sulfur Eastern Bituminous Flue Gas; Task 4 - Pilot Wet Scrubber Additive Tests at Yates; and Task 5 - Full-scale Additive Tests at Plant Yates. This topical report presents the results from the Task 2 and Task 4 pilot-scale additive tests. The Task 3 and Task 5 full-scale additive tests will be conducted later in calendar year 2006.

  11. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  13. Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society solar energy pilot study. First follow-up report, October 1979, pilot country: United States; co-pilot countries: Denmark and France. CCMS report No. 110

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    During 1973 to 1978, over twenty nations participated in the NATO/CCMS Solar Energy Pilot Study, whose objective was to promote and accelerate the use of solar heating and cooling of buildings. The activities in this information exchange included (1) the regular reporting of national solar heating and cooling programs, (2) the development of a format for reporting the performance of solar heating and cooling systems, (3) the exchange of system performance reports, (4) the establishment of two specialized working groups for solar-assisted low energy dwellings and passive solar applications. At the conclusion of the pilot study in 1978, the participants formulated recommendations for continued action at the international level, as well as for action at the national level. This report describes the progress made in implementing those recommendations. In addition to detailing the steps taken to continue collaboration in various efforts initiated within the Solar Energy Pilot Study, the report contains papers on the 1979 status of the solar heating and cooling programs in seventeen CCMS countries.

  14. ASOS GUIDE FOR PILOTS INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Administration (FAA), and the Department of Defense (DoD). ASOS is designed to support aviation operations weather observing system being implemented by the National Weather Service (NWS), the Federal Aviation. Air Carrier and Commercial Operators should refer to applicable parts of the Federal Aviation

  15. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  16. Peat gasification pilot plant program. Project 70105 quarterly report No. 2, September 1-November 30, 1981

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this program is twofold: (1) to modify an existing pilot plant; and (2) to operate the pilot plant with peat to produce substitute natural gas (SNG). Activities include the design, procurement, and installation of peat drying, grinding, screening, and lockhopper feed systems. Equipment installed for the program complements the existing pilot plant facility. Drying, grinding, and screening equipment for peat was installed and operated during the previous reporting periods. Three gasification tests (PT-1 through PT-3) had also been conducted using the toluene slurry feed system. Installation of the lockhopper dry feed system was completed on schedule. Shakedown of the system has begun. Operation of the modified 400-ton storage and transport system was successfully demonstrated with peat containing 10% moisture. Preparations for Test PT-4 are currently underway. Data analyses for Test PT-2 were completed and are presented. The low-pressure Plexiglas unit was modified to investigate the use of a downflowing pneumatic feed system for the dryer bed. Initial testing was begun.

  17. Mira Kobold and Kay Suelj Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 322332 (2005) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Mira Kobold and Kay Suelj 322 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 322332 (2005) © EGU Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models Mira Kobold and Kay Suelj the weather forecasts with the information on catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can

  18. Modelling piloted ignition of wood and plastics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blijderveen, Maarten van [TNO, Schoemakerstraat 97, 2628 VK Delft (Netherlands); University of Twente, Department of Thermal Engineering, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede (Netherlands); Bramer, Eddy A. [University of Twente, Department of Thermal Engineering, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede (Netherlands); Brem, Gerrit, E-mail: g.brem@utwente.nl [University of Twente, Department of Thermal Engineering, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede (Netherlands)

    2012-09-15T23:59:59.000Z

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model piloted ignition times of wood and plastics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model is applied on a packed bed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer When the air flow is above a critical level, no ignition can take place. - Abstract: To gain insight in the startup of an incinerator, this article deals with piloted ignition. A newly developed model is described to predict the piloted ignition times of wood, PMMA and PVC. The model is based on the lower flammability limit and the adiabatic flame temperature at this limit. The incoming radiative heat flux, sample thickness and moisture content are some of the used variables. Not only the ignition time can be calculated with the model, but also the mass flux and surface temperature at ignition. The ignition times for softwoods and PMMA are mainly under-predicted. For hardwoods and PVC the predicted ignition times agree well with experimental results. Due to a significant scatter in the experimental data the mass flux and surface temperature calculated with the model are hard to validate. The model is applied on the startup of a municipal waste incineration plant. For this process a maximum allowable primary air flow is derived. When the primary air flow is above this maximum air flow, no ignition can be obtained.

  19. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  20. Bentonite as a waste isolation pilot plant shaft sealing material

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Daemen, J.; Ran, Chongwei [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

    1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Current designs of the shaft sealing system for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) propose using bentonite as a primary sealing component. The shaft sealing designs anticipate that compacted bentonite sealing components can perform through the 10,000-year regulatory period and beyond. To evaluate the acceptability of bentonite as a sealing material for the WIPP, this report identifies references that deal with the properties and characteristics of bentonite that may affect its behavior in the WIPP environment. This report reviews published studies that discuss using bentonite as sealing material for nuclear waste disposal, environmental restoration, toxic and chemical waste disposal, landfill liners, and applications in the petroleum industry. This report identifies the physical and chemical properties, stability and seal construction technologies of bentonite seals in shafts, especially in a saline brine environment. This report focuses on permeability, swelling pressure, strength, stiffness, longevity, and densification properties of bentonites.

  1. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to Maximize Results Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to Maximize Results March 5, 2013 - 12:00pm Addthis EM Carlsbad...

  2. New Mexico Environmental Department (NMED) Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Mexico Environmental Department (NMED) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Hazardous Waste Facility Permit The documents included in this listing are additional references not...

  3. artificial wetlands pilot: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A process-based pilot-scale (more) Beebe, Donald 2013-01-01 6 National Wetlands Inventory Wetlands of the Environmental Sciences and Ecology Websites Summary: National...

  4. Federal Highway Administration - Pilot Car Escort - Best Practices...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Federal Highway Administration - Pilot Car Escort - Best Practices Guidelines Jump to: navigation, search OpenEI Reference LibraryAdd to library PermittingRegulatory Guidance -...

  5. Modeling Tomorrow's Biorefinery--the NREL Biochemical Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2008-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Brochure describing the capabilities of NREL's Biochemical Pilot Plant. In this facility, researchers test ideas for creating high-value products from cellulosic biomass.

  6. Listening to Your Workforce: Lessons From Pilot Programs and...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Other Approaches For Workforce Feedback Better Buildings Workforce Peer Exchange and Green for All High Road Affinity Group "Listening to Your Workforce": Lessons from Pilot...

  7. Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles Pilot Program...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Program Emissions Benefit Tool Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles Pilot Program Emissions Benefit Tool...

  8. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Ohio Success...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    documenting the success of the People Working CooperativelyWIPP partnership. ohiosuccessstory.pdf More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact...

  9. New National Labs Pilot Opens Doors to Small Businesses | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Business Vouchers Pilot will connect clean energy innovators across the country with the top-notch scientists, engineers, and world-class facilities at National Laboratories. Goal...

  10. Controlled pilot oxidizer for a gas turbine combustor

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Laster, Walter R. (Oviedo, FL); Bandaru, Ramarao V. (Greer, SC)

    2010-07-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A combustor (22) for a gas turbine (10) includes a main burner oxidizer flow path (34) delivering a first portion (32) of an oxidizer flow (e.g., 16) to a main burner (28) of the combustor and a pilot oxidizer flow path (38) delivering a second portion (36) of the oxidizer flow to a pilot (30) of the combustor. The combustor also includes a flow controller (42) disposed in the pilot oxidizer flow path for controlling an amount of the second portion delivered to the pilot.

  11. Radiological Release Event at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    at the Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico. Because access to the underground was restricted following the event, the...

  12. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilotCommercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants byof the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,

  13. On the Piloted Ignition of Solid Fuels in Spacecraft Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fereres-Rapoport, Sonya M.

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Describing the Steady-State Gasification of Bubble-FormingEffects on the Endothermic Gasification and Piloted Ignitionon Nonflaming Transient Gasification of PMMA and PE During

  14. ClearFuels-Rentech Pilot-Scale Biorefinery

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The ClearFuels-Rentech pilot-scale biorefinery will use Fisher-Tropsch gas-to-liquids technology to create diesel and jet fuel.

  15. airline pilots: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    owners: an Oxfordshire pilot 208 ORIGINAL PAPER Eric J. Hall Basil V. Worgul Lubomir Smilenov Biology and Medicine Websites Summary: of ocular cataracts at younger ages has been...

  16. Microsoft Word - Outdoor Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    regulations); conventional laboratory operations (such as preparation of chemical standards and sample analysis); and small-scale pilot projects (generally less than 2...

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plants byof the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot

  18. DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion ( OTEC) plants bySands. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot plantof the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Biofouling,

  19. Distance Learning Pilots in Trinity College Summer 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dolbow, John

    Distance Learning Pilots in Trinity College Summer 2010 Kristen Stephens than other Trinity summer courses according to comparisons made by the Office

  20. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sullivan, S.M.

    2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    1979. Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)of the Fifth Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Conference,Sands. 1980. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) pilot

  1. affect pilot plant: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the component testing mission. 12;314 Three 2 DRAFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PILOT PLANTS University of California eScholarship...

  2. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  3. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Biennial Environmental Compliance Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Westinghouse TRU Solutions

    2000-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This Biennial Environmental Compliance Report (BECR) documents environmental regulatory compliance at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a facility designed for the safe disposal of transuranic (TRU) radioactive waste, for the reporting period of April 1, 1998, to March 31, 2000. As required by the WIPP Land Withdrawal Act (LWA)(Public Law [Pub. L.] 102-579, and amended by Pub. L. 104-201), the BECR documents U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carlsbad Area Office's (hereinafter the ''CAO'') compliance with applicable environmental protection laws and regulations implemented by agencies of the federal government and the state of New Mexico. An issue was identified in the 1998 BECR relating to a potential cross-connection between the fire-water systems and the site domestic water system. While the CAO and its managing and operating contractor (hereinafter the ''MOC'') believe the site was always in compliance with cross-connection control requirements, hardware and procedural upgrades w ere implemented in March 1999 to strengthen its compliance posture. Further discussion of this issue is presented in section 30.2.2 herein. During this reporting period WIPP received two letters and a compliance order alleging violation of certain requirements outlined in section 9(a)(1) of the LWA. With the exception of one item, pending a final decision by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED), all alleged violations have been resolved without the assessment of fines or penalties. Non-mixed TRU waste shipments began on March 26, 1999. Shipments continued through November 26, 1999, the effective date of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (NM4890139088-TSDF). No shipments regulated under the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit were received at WIPP during this BECR reporting period.

  4. Application to Export Electric Energy OE Docket No. EA-383 Pilot...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Power Group, Inc Application from Pilot Power Group, Inc. to export electric energy to Mexico. EA-383 Pilot Power Group.pdf More Documents & Publications EA-383 Pilot Power Group...

  5. Microsoft Word - Future Power Systems 20 - The Smart Enterprise...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    all gives inefficient burn which costs more in fuel and emissions per kWh. Future Power Systems 20 The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Steve...

  6. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  7. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  8. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  9. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  10. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  11. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  12. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  13. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  14. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  16. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  18. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  19. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  20. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...