Powered by Deep Web Technologies
Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

2

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

3

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

4

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

6

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

8

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

12

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

13

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The United States Department of Energy is planning to dispose of transuranic wastes, which have been generated by defense programs, at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The WIPP Project will assess compliance with the requirements of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. This report forecasts the planned 1992 document, Comparison to 40 CFR, Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). 130 refs., 36 figs., 11 tabs.

Bertram-Howery, S.G.; Marietta, M.G.; Anderson, D.R.; Gomez, L.S.; Rechard, R.P. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Brinster, K.F.; Guzowski, R.V. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

Shenoy, Prashant

16

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

18

Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

2009-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

A Multiscale Wind and Power Forecast System for Wind Farms  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A large scale introduction of wind energy in power sector causes a number of challenges for electricity market and wind farm operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in the wind power generation in their scheduling and trading decisions. Numerical wind power forecasting has been identified as an important tool to address the increasing variability and uncertainty and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetration. It has been observed that even when the wind magnitude and direction recorded at a wind mast are the same, the corresponding energy productions can vary significantly. In this work we try to introduce improvements by developing a more accurate wind forecast system for a complex terrain. The system has been operational for eight months for the Bessaker Wind Farm located in the middle part of Norway in a very complex terrain. Operational power curves have also been derived from data analysis. Although the methodology explained has been developed for an onshore wind farm, it can very well be utilized in an offshore context also.

Adil Rasheed; Jakob Kristoffer Süld; Trond Kvamsdal

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

APS ALternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant Monitoring System  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

502 502 U.S. Department of Energy FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant Monitoring System Dimitri Hochard James Francfort July 2005 Idaho National Laboratory Operated by Battelle Energy Alliance INL/EXT-05-00502 U.S. Department of Energy FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant Monitoring System Dimitri Hochard a James Francfort b July 2005 Idaho National Laboratory Transportation Technology Department Idaho Falls, Idaho 83415 Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Under DOE Idaho Operations Office

23

A Displacement-Based Error Measure Applied in a Regional Ensemble Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Errors in regional forecasts often take the form of phase errors, where a forecasted weather system is displaced in space or time. For such errors, a direct measure of the displacement is likely to be more valuable than traditional measures. A ...

Christian Keil; George C. Craig

2007-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analyses of regional mod- eling with Polar WRF have been performed with results compared to selected localEvaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a highresolution regional scale model, is used to simulate

Howat, Ian M.

25

The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data from NCEP’s regional ...

Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves; Arun Chawla; Hendrik L. Tolman; David Schwab; Gregory Lang; Greg Mann

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.

LI De-shun; XU Kai-li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm

Kim, Guebuem

30

A New Neuro-Based Method for Short Term Load Forecasting of Iran National Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents a new neuro-based method for short term load forecasting of Iran national power system (INPS). A MultiLayer Perceptron ( ... were selected through a peer investigation on historical data relea...

R. Barzamini; M. B. Menhaj; Sh. Kamalvand…

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Economic Valuation of a New Meteorological Information Service: Conjoint Analysis for a Pollen Forecast System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to investigate the public’s preferences for and quantitatively measure the economic value of a pollen forecast system, a new meteorological information service, in South Korea. To directly measure the economic value of the pollen ...

Joong-Woo Lee; Jinyong Jang; Kwang-Kun Ko; Youngsang Cho

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Weather Forecasting System Based on Satellite Imageries Using Neuro-fuzzy Techniques  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have built an automated Satellite Images Forecasting System with Neuro-Fuzzy techniques. Firstly, Subtractive Clustering is applied on to a satellite image to extract the locations of the clouds. This is follo...

Chien-Wan Tham; Sion-Hui Tian; Liya Ding

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Static Forecasting of the Execution Times of Complexes of Interrelated Jobs in the Multiprocessor Computer Systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Consideration was given to a procedure of approximate forecasting of the execution times of the complexes of interrelated jobs in the multiprocessor computer systems with the Erlangian execution time of each j...

N. N. Ivanov; V. V. Ignatushchenko; A. Yu. Mikhailov

34

Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Das, S.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

37

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability?A Review  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

R. M. Holmukhe; Mrs. Sunita Dhumale; Mr. P. S. Chaudhari; Mr. P. P. Kulkarni

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Xie, Jinxing

39

Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4–5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced ...

Dustan M. Wheatley; Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

Boss, Emmanuel S.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Proposal Title: Implementing FORMS for ROMS and HOPS for the Monterey Bay forecasting system will implement a feature-oriented initialization scheme for both west coast ROMS and HOPS. The large Feature oriented Initialization Procedure development (ROMS and HOPS) Initialization Sensitivity runs

Gangopadhyay, Avijit

42

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

Bertossi, Leopoldo

43

APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant - Monitoring System Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), along with Electric Transportation Applications and Arizona Pubic Service (APS), is monitoring the operations of the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant to determine the costs to produce hydrogen fuels (including 100% hydrogen as well as hydrogen and compressed natural gas blends) for use by fleets and other operators of advanced-technology vehicles. The hydrogen fuel cost data will be used as benchmark data by technology modelers as well as research and development programs. The Pilot Plant can produce up to 18 kilograms (kg) of hydrogen per day by electrolysis. It can store up to 155 kg of hydrogen at various pressures up to 6,000 psi. The dispenser island can fuel vehicles with 100% hydrogen at 5,000 psi and with blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas at 3,600 psi. The monitoring system was designed to track hydrogen delivery to each of the three storage areas and to monitor the use of electricity on all major equipment in the Pilot Plant, including the fuel dispenser island. In addition, water used for the electrolysis process is monitored to allow calculation of the total cost of plant operations and plant efficiencies. The monitoring system at the Pilot Plant will include about 100 sensors when complete (50 are installed to date), allowing for analysis of component, subsystems, and plant-level costs. The monitoring software is mostly off-the-shelve, with a custom interface. The majority of the sensors input to the Programmable Automation Controller as 4- to 20-mA analog signals. The plant can be monitored over of the Internet, but the control functions are restricted to the control room equipment. Using the APS general service plan E32 electric rate of 2.105 cents per kWh, during a recent eight-month period when 1,200 kg of hydrogen was produced and the plant capacity factor was 26%, the electricity cost to produce one kg of hydrogen was $3.43. However, the plant capacity factor has been increasing, with a recent one-month high of 49%. If a plant capacity factor of 70% can be achieved with the present equipment, the cost of electricity would drop to $2.39 per kg of hydrogen. In this report, the power conversion (76.7%), cell stack (53.1%), and reverse osmosis system (7.14%) efficiencies are also calculated, as is the water cost per kg of hydrogen produced ($0.10 per kg). The monitoring system has identified several areas having the potential to lower costs, including using an reverse osmosis system with a higher efficiency, improving the electrolysis power conversion efficiency, and using air cooling to replace some or all chiller cooling. These activities are managed by the Idaho National Laboratory for the AVTA, which is part of DOE’s FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program.

James Francfort; Dimitri Hochard

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Fusion of artificial neural network and fuzzy system for short term weather forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Weather forecasting is the challenging problem for the modern life. Some researches have been conducted to design the accurate prediction in some past years but still it is incomplete. In this paper, we propose the system of short period weather forecasting designed based on the current weather parameter consisted of temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction and speed and present weather condition. This system uses fusion of feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy system architecture as main algorithm of weather prediction, Lavendberg-Marquadt as learning algorithm and fuzzy C-mean (FCM) as clustering method in initialisation step. Based on the system architecture, this method can predict the weather continuously despite the change of unpredictable patterns. Furthermore, this system has clear reasoning logic on the fuzzy logic instead of its adaptation ability on its neural network architecture. The performance of proposed system has accuracy up to 78% for validity among three possible weathers, i.e., shiny, cloudy and rainy.

Budiman Putra; Bagus Tris Atmaja; Syahroni Hidayat

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

45

Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80 m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to ...

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

46

Project ID: 35011 Title: The Floating Net Pen Transportation System Pilot Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Project ID: 35011 Title: The Floating Net Pen Transportation System Pilot Project Sponsor: Columbia. Principal goals are to assess survival and straying at adulthood. Net pens are proposed as a low cost

47

Fuzzy rule-based methodology for residential load behaviour forecasting during power systems restoration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inadequate load pickup during power system restoration can lead to overload and underfrequency conditions, and even restart the blackout process, due to thermal energy losses. Thus, load behaviour estimation during restoration is desirable to avoid inadequate pickups. This work describes an artificial intelligence method to aid the operator in taking decisions during system restoration by estimating residential load behaviour parameters such as overload in buses and the necessary time to recover steady-state power consumption. This method uses a fuzzy rule-based system to forecast the residential load, obtaining correct estimates with low computational cost. Test results using actual substation data are presented.

Lia Toledo Moreira Mota; Alexandre Assis Mota; Andre Luiz Morelato Franca

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.

Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

51

BBO-based small autonomous hybrid power system optimization incorporating wind speed and solar radiation forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Rising carbon emission or carbon footprint imposes grave concern over the earth?s climatic condition, as it results in increasing average global temperature. Renewable energy sources seem to be the favorable solution in this regard. It can reduce the overall energy consumption rate globally. However, the renewable sources are intermittent in nature with very high initial installation price. Off-grid Small Autonomous Hybrid Power Systems (SAHPS) are good alternative for generating electricity locally in remote areas, where the transmission and distribution of electrical energy generated from conventional sources are otherwise complex, difficult and costly. In optimizing SAHPS, weather data over past several years are generally the main input, which include wind speed and solar radiation. The weather resources used in this optimization process have unsystematic variations based on the atmospheric and seasonal phenomenon and it also varies from year to year. While using past data in the analysis of SAHPS performance, it was assumed that the same pattern will be followed in the next year, which in reality is very unlikely to happen. In this paper, we use BBO optimization algorithm for SAHPS optimal component sizing by minimizing the cost of energy. We have also analysed the effect of using forecast weather data instead of past data on the SAHPS performance. ANNs, which are trained with back-propagation training algorithm, are used for wind speed and solar radiation forecasting. A case study was used for demonstrating the performance of BBO optimization algorithm along with forecasting effects. The simulation results clearly showed the advantages of utilizing wind speed and solar radiation forecasting in a SAHPS optimization problem.

R.A. Gupta; Rajesh Kumar; Ajay Kumar Bansal

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

53

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

54

DOE/NREL Inner Mongolia PV/Wind Hybrid Systems Pilot Project: A Post-Installation Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report assesses the Inner Mongolia Pilot Project, which disseminates wind-solar hybrid systems to a rural and remote population.

Stroup, K. K.

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Resource Allocation Support System (RASS): Summary report of the 1992 pilot study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Resource Allocation Support System (RASS) is a decision-aiding system being developed to assist the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Waste Management in program and budget decision making. Four pilot studies were conducted at DOE field offices in summer 1992 to evaluate and improve the RASS design. This report summarizes the combined results of the individual field office pilot studies. Results are presented from different perspectives to illustrate the type of information that would be available from RASS. Lessons learned and directions for future RASS developments are also presented.

Buehring, W.A.; Whitfield, R.G.; Wolsko, T.D.; Kier, P.H.; Absil, M.J.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Sapinski, P.F.

1993-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

58

Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- eral days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations Erin B. Munsell1 University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF

59

Hydraulically actuated fuel injector including a pilot operated spool valve assembly and hydraulic system using same  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

The present invention relates to hydraulic systems including hydraulically actuated fuel injectors that have a pilot operated spool valve assembly. One class of hydraulically actuated fuel injectors includes a solenoid driven pilot valve that controls the initiation of the injection event. However, during cold start conditions, hydraulic fluid, typically engine lubricating oil, is particularly viscous and is often difficult to displace through the relatively small drain path that is defined past the pilot valve member. Because the spool valve typically responds slower than expected during cold start due to the difficulty in displacing the relatively viscous oil, accurate start of injection timing can be difficult to achieve. There also exists a greater difficulty in reaching the higher end of the cold operating speed range. Therefore, the present invention utilizes a fluid evacuation valve to aid in displacement of the relatively viscous oil during cold start conditions.

Shafer, Scott F. (Morton, IL)

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Gasification of an Indonesian subbituminous coal in a pilot-scale coal gasification system  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Indonesian Roto Middle subbituminous coal was gasified in a pilot-scale dry-feeding gasification system and the produced syngas was purified...2, and 5–8% CO2. Particulates in syngas were 99.8% removed by metal f...

Yongseung Yun; Seok Woo Chung

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document is the final technical report for Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, 'Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,' which was conducted over the time-period January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2010. The objective of this project has been to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid catalysts and/or fixed-structure mercury sorbents to promote the removal of total mercury and oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, followed by wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project was co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL), EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Energy (now called Luminant), Southern Company, Salt River Project (SRP) and Duke Energy. URS Group was the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses fixed-structure sorbents and/or catalysts to promote the removal of total mercury and/or oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury not adsorbed is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The project has tested candidate materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. Pilot-scale catalytic oxidation tests have been completed for periods of approximately 14 to19 months at three sites, with an additional round of pilot-scale fixed-structure sorbent tests being conducted at one of those sites. Additionally, pilot-scale wet FGD tests have been conducted downstream of mercury oxidation catalysts at a total of four sites. The sites include the two of three sites from this project and two sites where catalytic oxidation pilot testing was conducted as part of a previous DOE-NETL project. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests were also conducted at a fifth site, but with no catalyst or fixed-structure mercury sorbent upstream. This final report presents and discusses detailed results from all of these efforts, and makes a number of conclusions about what was learned through these efforts.

Gary Blythe; Conor Braman; Katherine Dombrowski; Tom Machalek

2010-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

62

1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of historical distribution load data [2]. The increasinglypopular, accurate, and affordable Geographic Informahon Systems (GIS) technology provides an excellent data base platform for spatial load forecasting on collecting relevant geographic data. Thus spatial load forecasting becomes even more attractive than before

Chow, Mo-Yuen

63

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

A new adaptive fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption forecasting with hike in prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Large increase or hike in energy prices has proven to impact electricity consumption in a way which cannot be drawn ... (FIS) to estimate and forecast long-term electricity consumption when prices experience larg...

S. M. Sajadi; S. M. Asadzadeh; V. Majazi Dalfard…

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

A Long Term Load Forecasting of an Indian Grid for Power System Planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A time-series load modelling and load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy techniques were presented...7]. In this method, energy data of several past years is used to ... . ANN structure of ANFIS can capture the power ...

R. Behera; B. B. Pati; B. P. Panigrahi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant TruDock crane system analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The WIPP TruDock crane system located in the Waste Handling Building was identified in the WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR), November 1995, as a potential accident concern due to failures which could result in a dropped load. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the frequency of failure of the TruDock crane system resulting in a dropped load and subsequent loss of primary containment, i.e. drum failure. The frequency of dropped loads was estimated to be 9.81E-03/year or approximately one every 102 years (or, for the 25% contingency, 7.36E-03/year or approximately one every 136 years). The dominant accident contributor was the failure of the cable/hook assemblies, based on failure data obtained from NUREG-0612, as analyzed by PLG, Inc. The WIPP crane system undergoes a rigorous test and maintenance program, crane operation is discontinued following any abnormality, and the crane operator and load spotter are required to be trained in safe crane operation, therefore it is felt that the WIPP crane performance will exceed the data presented in NUREG-0612 and the estimated failure frequency is felt to be conservative.

Morris, B.C. [Westinghouse Electric Corp., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Carter, M. [Westinghouse Electric Corp., Carlsbad, NM (United States). Waste Isolation Div.

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

69

Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...

Bray, Rebecca Anne

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

70

Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008

F. Chui; A. Elkamel; R. Surit; E. Croiset; P.L. Douglas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

71

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

72

Energy dispatch schedule optimization for demand charge reduction using a photovoltaic-battery storage system with solar forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A battery storage dispatch strategy that optimizes demand charge reduction in real-time was developed and the discharge of battery storage devices in a grid-connected, combined photovoltaic-battery storage system (PV+ system) was simulated for a summer month, July 2012, and a winter month, November 2012, in an operational environment. The problem is formulated as a linear programming (LP; or linear optimization) routine and daily minimization of peak non-coincident demand is sought to evaluate the robustness, reliability, and consistency of the battery dispatch algorithm. The LP routine leverages solar power and load forecasts to establish a load demand target (i.e., a minimum threshold to which demand can be reduced using a photovoltaic (PV) array and battery array) that is adjusted throughout the day in response to forecast error. The LP routine perfectly minimizes demand charge but forecasts errors necessitate adjustments to the perfect dispatch schedule. The PV+ system consistently reduced non-coincident demand on a metered load that has an elevated diurnal (i.e., daytime) peak. The average reduction in peak demand on weekdays (days that contain the elevated load peak) was 25.6% in July and 20.5% in November. By itself, the PV array (excluding the battery array) reduced the peak demand on average 19.6% in July and 11.4% in November. PV alone cannot perfectly mitigate load spikes due to inherent variability; the inclusion of a storage device reduced the peak demand a further 6.0% in July and 9.3% in November. Circumstances affecting algorithm robustness and peak reduction reliability are discussed.

R. Hanna; J. Kleissl; A. Nottrott; M. Ferry

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...

Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

2011-10-21T23:59:59.000Z

75

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

76

Mercury Emissions Control in Coal Combustion Systems Using Potassium Iodide: Bench-Scale and Pilot-Scale Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

power plant exhaust gases using conventional air pollution control devices (APCDs) is significantly Act list of sources of hazardous air pollutants. Both the reversal and the CAMR were vacated by the UMercury Emissions Control in Coal Combustion Systems Using Potassium Iodide: Bench-Scale and Pilot

Li, Ying

77

Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

2010-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

78

Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

2010-06-27T23:59:59.000Z

79

MBM fuel feeding system design and evaluation for FBG pilot plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A 1-5 g/s fuel feeding system for pilot scale FBG was designed, built and tested. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Multiple conveying stages improve pressure balancing, flow control and stability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Secondary conveyor stage reduced output irregularity from 47% to 15%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic air sparging effective in dealing with poor flow ability of MBM powder. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic injection port plugs with char at gasification temperature of 850 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: A biomass fuel feeding system has been designed, constructed and evaluated for a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) pilot plant at the University of Saskatchewan (Saskatoon, SK, Canada). The system was designed for meat and bone meal (MBM) to be injected into the gasifier at a mass flow-rate range of 1-5 g/s. The designed system consists of two stages of screw conveyors, including a metering stage which controlled the flow-rate of fuel, a rotary airlock and an injection conveyor stage, which delivered that fuel at a consistent rate to the FBG. The rotary airlock which was placed between these conveyors, proved unable to maintain a pressure seal, thus the entire conveying system was sealed and pressurized. A pneumatic injection nozzle was also fabricated, tested and fitted to the end of the injection conveyor for direct injection and dispersal into the fluidized bed. The 150 mm metering screw conveyor was shown to effectively control the mass output rate of the system, across a fuel output range of 1-25 g/s, while the addition of the 50 mm injection screw conveyor reduced the irregularity (error) of the system output rate from 47% to 15%. Although material plugging was found to be an issue in the inlet hopper to the injection conveyor, the addition of air sparging ports and a system to pulse air into those ports was found to successfully eliminate this issue. The addition of the pneumatic injection nozzle reduced the output irregularity further to 13%, with an air supply of 50 slpm as the minimum air supply to drive this injector. After commissioning of this final system to the FBG reactor, the injection nozzle was found to plug with char however, and was subsequently removed from the system. Final operation of the reactor continues satisfactorily with the two screw conveyors operating at matching pressure with the fluidized bed, with the output rate of the system estimated based on system characteristic equations, and confirmed by static weight measurements made before and after testing. The error rate by this method is reported to be approximately 10%, which is slightly better than the estimated error rate of 15% for the conveyor system. The reliability of this measurement prediction method relies upon the relative consistency of the physical properties of MBM with respect to its bulk density and feeding characteristics.

Campbell, William A., E-mail: bill.campbell@usask.ca [Fluidization Laboratory of Saskatchewan (FLASK) (Canada) and Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan (Canada); Fonstad, Terry [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan (Canada); Pugsley, Todd [Suncor Energy Inc., Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Gerspacher, Regan [Fluidization Laboratory of Saskatchewan (FLASK) (Canada); Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan (Canada)

2012-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

80

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

82

Probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In its most recent report on the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the annual failure rate is calculated to be 1.3E({minus}7)(1/yr), rounded off from 1.32E({minus}7). A calculation by the Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) produces a result that is about 4% higher, namely 1.37E({minus}7)(1/yr). The difference is due to a minor error in the US Department of Energy (DOE) calculations in the Westinghouse 1996 report. WIPP`s hoist safety relies on a braking system consisting of a number of components including two crucial valves. The failure rate of the system needs to be recalculated periodically to accommodate new information on component failure, changes in maintenance and inspection schedules, occasional incidents such as a hoist traveling out-of-control, either up or down, and changes in the design of the brake system. This report examines DOE`s last two reports on the redesigned waste hoist system. In its calculations, the DOE has accepted one EEG recommendation and is using more current information about the component failures rates, the Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD). However, the DOE calculations fail to include the data uncertainties which are described in detail in the NPRD reports. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission recommended that a system evaluation include mean estimates of component failure rates and take into account the potential uncertainties that exist so that an estimate can be made on the confidence level to be ascribed to the quantitative results. EEG has made this suggestion previously and the DOE has indicated why it does not accept the NRC recommendation. Hence, this EEG report illustrates the importance of including data uncertainty using a simple statistical example.

Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)]|[Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Hoover Institution

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

A demand side management strategy based on forecasting of residential renewable sources: A smart home system in Turkey  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The existing electricity systems have been substantially designed to allow only centralized power generation and unidirectional power flow. Therefore, the objective of improving the conventional power systems with the capabilities of decentralized generation and advanced control has conflicted with the present power system infrastructure and thus a profound change has necessitated in the current power grids. To that end, the concept of smart grid has been introduced at the last decades in order to accomplish the modernization of the power grid while incorporating various capabilities such as advanced metering, monitoring and self-healing to the systems. Among the various advanced components in smart grid structure, “smart home” is of vital importance due to its handling difficulties caused by the stochastic behaviors of inhabitants. However, limited studies concerning the implementation of smart homes have so far been reported in the literature. Motivated by this need, this paper investigates an experimental smart home with various renewable energy sources and storage systems in terms of several aspects such as in-home energy management, appliances control and power flow. Furthermore, the study represents one of the very first attempts to evaluate the contribution of power forecasting of renewable energy sources on the performance of smart home concepts.

A. Tascikaraoglu; A.R. Boynuegri; M. Uzunoglu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM-PHASE I  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents the first year's effort towards a 3-year program to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. In essence, all Phase I goals and objectives were met. We intend to proceed with the Phase II research plan, as set forth by the applicable Research Management Plan. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of micropilot ignition for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase I were to develop a single-cylinder test chamber to study the injection of pilot fuel into a combustion cylinder and to develop, install and test a multi-cylinder micropilot ignition system for a 4-cylinder, natural gas test engine. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support these two (2) primarily elements in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. Research activities for Micropilot Phase I were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are expected to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. An extensive state-of-art review was conducted to leverage the existing body of knowledge of micropilot ignition with respect to retrofit applications. Additionally, commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The four-cylinder prototype data was encouraging for the micro-pilot ignition technology when compared to spark ignition. Initial testing results showed: (1) Brake specific fuel consumption of natural gas was improved from standard spark ignition across the map, 1% at full load and 5% at 70% load. (2) 0% misfires for all points on micropilot ignition. Fuel savings were most likely due to this percent misfire improvement. (3) THC (Total Hydrocarbon) emissions were improved significantly at light load, 38% at 70% load. (4) VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions were improved above 80% load. (5) Coefficient of Variance for the IMEP (Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) was significantly less at lower loads, 76% less at 70%. These preliminary results will be substantiated and enhanced during Phase II of the Micropilot Ignition program.

Ted Bestor

2003-03-04T23:59:59.000Z

85

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales control measures that could be taken for managing such episodes, European-scale air quality forecasting

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

86

IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents a 3-year research program conducted by the Engines & Energy Conversion Laboratory (EECL) at Colorado State University (CSU) to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. Research activities for the overall program were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. An extensive state-of-art review was conducted to leverage the existing body of knowledge of micropilot ignition with respect to retrofit applications. Additionally, commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of micropilot ignition for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios under laboratory conditions at the EECL. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase I were to develop a single-cylinder test chamber to study the injection of pilot fuel into a combustion cylinder and to develop, install and test a multi-cylinder micropilot ignition system for a 4-cylinder, natural gas test engine. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support these two (2) primarily elements in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. The four-cylinder prototype data was encouraging for the micro-pilot ignition technology when compared to spark ignition. The objective for Phase II was to further develop and optimize the micropilot ignition system at the EECL for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase II were to evaluate the results for the 4-cylinder system prototype developed for Phase I, then optimize this system and prepare the technology for the field demonstration phase in Year 3. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support objectives in a stepwise fashion. The optimized four-cylinder system data demonstrated significant progress compared to Phase I results, as well as traditional spark ignition systems. These laboratory results were enhanced, then verified via a field demonstration project during Phase III of the Micropilot Ignition program. An Implementation Team of qualified engine retrofit service providers was assembled to install the retrofit micropilot ignition system on an engine operated by El Paso Pipeline Group at a compressor station near Window Rock, Arizona. Testing of this demonstration unit showed that the same benefits identified by laboratory testing at CSU, i.e., reduced fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (NOx, THC, CO, and CH2O). Commercialization of the retrofit micropilot ignition technology is awaiting a ''market pull'', which is expected to materialize as the results of the field demonstration become known and accepted. The Implementation Team, comprised of Woodward Governor Company, Enginuity LLC, Hoerbiger Corporation of America, and DigiCon Inc., has direct experience with the technology development and implementation, and stands ready to promote and commercialize the retrofit micropilot ignition system.

Scott Chase; Daniel Olsen; Ted Bestor

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This final report presents and discusses results from a mercury control process development project entitled ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems''. The objective of this project was to demonstrate at pilot scale a mercury control technology that uses solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. Oxidized mercury is removed in downstream wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) absorbers and leaves with the FGD byproducts. The goal of the project was to achieve 90% oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas and 90% overall mercury capture with the downstream wet FGD system. The project was co-funded by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (now CPS Energy) of San Antonio were also project co-funders and provided host sites. URS Group, Inc. was the prime contractor. Longer-term pilot-scale tests were conducted at two sites to provide catalyst life data. GRE provided the first site, at their Coal Creek Station (CCS), which fires North Dakota lignite, and CPS Energy provided the second site, at their Spruce Plant, which fires Powder River Basin (PRB) coal. Mercury oxidation catalyst testing began at CCS in October 2002 and continued through the end of June 2004, representing nearly 21 months of catalyst operation. An important finding was that, even though the mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit was installed downstream of a high-efficiency ESP, fly ash buildup began to plug flue gas flow through the horizontal catalyst cells. Sonic horns were installed in each catalyst compartment and appeared to limit fly ash buildup. A palladium-based catalyst showed initial elemental mercury oxidation percentages of 95% across the catalyst, declining to 67% after 21 months in service. A carbon-based catalyst began with almost 98% elemental mercury oxidation across the catalyst, but declined to 79% oxidation after nearly 13 months in service. The other two catalysts, an SCR-type catalyst (titanium/vanadium) and an experimental fly-ash-based catalyst, were significantly less active. The palladium-based and SCR-type catalysts were effectively regenerated at the end of the long-term test by flowing heated air through the catalyst overnight. The carbon-based catalyst was not observed to regenerate, and no regeneration tests were conducted on the fourth, fly-ash-based catalyst. Preliminary process economics were developed for the palladium and carbon-based catalysts for a scrubbed, North Dakota lignite application. As described above, the pilot-scale results showed the catalysts could not sustain 90% or greater oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas for a period of two years. Consequently, the economics were based on performance criteria in a later DOE NETL solicitation, which required candidate mercury control technologies to achieve at least a 55% increase in mercury capture for plants that fire lignite. These economics show that if the catalysts must be replaced every two years, the catalytic oxidation process can be 30 to 40% less costly than conventional (not chemically treated) activated carbon injection if the plant currently sells their fly ash and would lose those sales with carbon injection. If the plant does not sell their fly ash, activated carbon injection was estimated to be slightly less costly. There was little difference in the estimated cost for palladium versus the carbon-based catalysts. If the palladium-based catalyst can be regenerated to double its life to four years, catalytic oxidation process economics are greatly improved. With regeneration, the catalytic oxidation process shows over a 50% reduction in mercury control cost compared to conventional activated carbon injection for a case where the plant sells its fly ash. At Spruce Plant, mercury oxidation catalyst testing began in September 2003 and continued through the end of April 2005, interrupted only by a

Richard Rhudy

2006-06-30T23:59:59.000Z

88

SOLERAS - Solar Energy Water Desalination Project: Catalytic. System design final report. Volume 2. Preliminary pilot plant design  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The preliminary design of a solar water desalination pilot plant is presented. Pilot plant drawings and process descriptions are provided. Use of solar and wind energy are discussed. Testing, performance and cost of the pilot plant are studied. (BCS)

Not Available

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Portland General Electric Co. Pilot Evaluation and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capability to support the utility's control of residential customers' central electric space heating systems DIRECT LOAD CONTROL PILOT FOR ELECTRIC SPACE HEAT #12;Direct Load Control Pilot for Electric Space Heat) an evaluation report of its direct load control pilot for electric space heat, called "Direct Load control Pilot

90

Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: A preliminary example  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A systems prioritization methodology (SPM) is under development to provide guidance to the US DOE on experimental programs and design modifications to be supported in the development of a successful licensing application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. The purpose of the SPM is to determine the probabilities that the implementation of different combinations of experimental programs and design modifications, referred to as activity sets, will lead to compliance. Appropriate tradeoffs between compliance probability, implementation cost and implementation time can then be made in the selection of the activity set to be supported in the development of a licensing application. Descriptions are given for the conceptual structure of the SPM and the manner in which this structure determines the computational implementation of an example SPM application. Due to the sophisticated structure of the SPM and the computational demands of many of its components, the overall computational structure must be organized carefully to provide the compliance probabilities for the large number of activity sets under consideration at an acceptable computational cost. Conceptually, the determination of each compliance probability is equivalent to a large numerical integration problem. 96 refs., 31 figs., 36 tabs.

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Anderson, D.R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). WIPP Performance Assessments Departments; Baker, B.L. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

92

Central receiver solar thermal power system, Phase 1: CDRL Item 2, pilot plant preliminary design report. Volume VII. Pilot plant cost and commercial plant cost and performance  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Detailed cost and performance data for the proposed tower focus pilot plant and commercial plant are given. The baseline central receiver concept defined by the MDAC team consists of the following features: (A) an external receiver mounted on a tower, and located in a 360/sup 0/ array of sun-tracking heliostats which comprise the collector subsystem. (B) feedwater from the electrical power generation subsystem is pumped through a riser to the receiver, where the feedwater is converted to superheated steam in a single pass through the tubes of the receiver panels. (C) The steam from the receiver is routed through a downcomer to the ground and introduced to a turbine directly for expansion and generation of electricity, and/or to a thermal storage subsystem, where the steam is condensed in charging heat exchangers to heat a dual-medium oil and rock thermal storage unit (TSU). (D) Extended operation after daylight hours is facilitated by discharging the TSU to generate steam for feeding the admission port of the turbine. (E) Overall control of the system is provided by a master control unit, which handles the interactions between subsystems that take place during startup, shutdown, and transitions between operating modes. (WHK)

Hallet, Jr., R. W.; Gervais, R. L.

1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Design and performance of the Champion pilot-constructed wetland treatment system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pilot wetlands were built at Champion International Corp.'s Pensacola, FL, bleached kraft paper mill to evaluate the potential for final effluent polishing. The pilot wetlands began operation July 1, 1991. Monitoring ended June 30, 1993. Removal rates and outflow concentrations for five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD[sub 5]), total suspended solids (TSS), ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) depended most on hydraulic loading rates (HLRs). Two-year average removal efficiencies for these constituents were above 67%. Slight color and total dissolved solids reductions were seen at the lower HLRs tested. Deep zones enhanced flow distribution, increase hydraulic residence time, and significantly increased pollutant assimilation in the pilot wetlands. The wetland cells reduced or eliminated chronic toxicity to cladocerans and fathead minnows. The most suitable plant species in the wetland were cattails, bulrush, and sawgrass.

Knight, R.L. (CH2M Hill, Gainesville, FL (United States)); Hilleke, J.; Grayson, S. (Champion International Corp., West Nyack, NY (United States))

1994-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Pilot scale test of a produced water-treatment system for initial removal of organic compounds  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A pilot-scale test to remove polar and non-polar organics from produced water was performed at a disposal facility in Farmington NM. We used surfactant-modified zeolite (SMZ) adsorbent beds and a membrane bioreactor (MBR) in combination to reduce the organic carbon content of produced water prior to reverse osmosis (RO). Reduction of total influent organic carbon (TOC) to 5 mg/L or less is desirable for efficient RO system operation. Most water disposed at the facility is from coal-bed gas production, with oil production waters intermixed. Up to 20 gal/d of produced water was cycled through two SMZ adsorbent units to remove volatile organic compounds (BTEX, acetone) and semivolatile organic compounds (e.g., napthalene). Output water from the SMZ units was sent to the MBR for removal of the organic acid component of TOC. Removal of inorganic (Mn and Fe oxide) particulates by the SMZ system was observed. The SMZ columns removed up to 40% of the influent TOC (600 mg/L). BTEX concentrations were reduced from the initial input of 70 mg/L to 5 mg/L by the SMZ and to an average of 2 mg/L after the MBR. Removal rates of acetate (input 120-170 mg/L) and TOC (input up to 45 mg/L) were up to 100% and 92%, respectively. The water pH rose from 8.5 to 8.8 following organic acid removal in the MBR; this relatively high pH was likely responsible for observed scaling of the MBR internal membrane. Additional laboratory studies showed the scaling can be reduced by metered addition of acid to reduce the pH. Significantly, organic removal in the MBR was accomplished with a very low biomass concentration of 1 g/L throughout the field trial. An earlier engineering evaluation shows produced water treatment by the SMZ/MBR/RO system would cost from $0.13 to $0.20 per bbl at up to 40 gpm. Current estimated disposal costs for produced water are $1.75 to $4.91 per bbl when transportation costs are included, with even higher rates in some regions. Our results suggest that treatment by an SMZ/MBR/RO system may be a feasible alternative to current methods for produced water treatment and disposal.

Sullivan, Enid J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kwon, Soondong [UT-AUSTIN; Katz, Lynn [UT-AUSTIN; Kinney, Kerry [UT-AUSTIN

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept

Brest, Université de

96

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Study of the SMO Algorithm Applied in Power System Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A new methodology on the algorithm of sequential minimal optimization (SMO) for power system load was presented. In order to solve the ... (SVM) can not deal with large scale data, this paper introduces the modif...

Jingmin Wang; Kanzhang Wu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

99

Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An accurate product reliability prediction model can not only learn and track the product's reliability and operational performance, but also offer useful information for managers to take follow-up actions to improve the product' quality and cost. This ... Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Neural network model, Reliability prediction, Repairable system

L. Yi-Hui

2007-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack

Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

102

Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still

Menut, Laurent

103

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

CMVRTC: WRI Pilot  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

WRI PRE-FOt WRI PRE-FOt diagram The purpose of this Pre-FOT is to provide a bridge between the just-completed WRI Commercial Mobile Radio Services (CMRS) Pilot Test (Pilot Test) (31 Jan 11) and the desired large-scale FOT (2014). A bridge is needed because critical portions of the WRI CMRS Pilot Test were not completed or fully tested (e.g. pull-in/by-pass, safety sensor data present in Safety Data Message (SDM), flexible geo-fencing, carrier interface), and the Government Back Office System (GBOS) was not developed in a way to support real, large-scale WRI testing (e.g., interface not relevant to enforcement, system not stable or robust, safety sensor data not understood by developers). This effort, the WRI CMRS Pre-FOT End-to-End System Validation (WRI Pre-FOT), seeks to develop and test a complete end-to-end

105

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

106

Data quality assurance controls through the WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) In Situ Data Acquisition, Analysis, and Management System  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Assurance of data quality for the in situ tests fielded at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is of critical importance. These tests supply the information for development and verification of the technology required for construction of a radioactive waste repository in bedded salt. The tests are some of the largest ever fielded in an underground facility. To assure that the extensive output generated by the tests is compatible with the high standards of quality required, a major project task was undertaken for the acquisition, control, and preservation of the all the associated in situ test databases, with the principal emphasis on the very large thermal/structural in situ tests. In order to accomplish this task the WIPP In Situ Data Acquisition, Analysis, and Management (WISDAAM) System was put into place. The system provides for quality control of the test databases and certified test data throughout the duration of the tests. 13 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs.

Munson, D.E. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Ball, J.R. (RE/SPEC, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Jones, R.L. (Tech. Reps., Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1990-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System Data Impact on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

High-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems (HALE UAS) are capable of extended flights for atmospheric sampling. A case study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact of dropwindsonde observations from HALE UAS on tropical ...

N. C. Privé; Yuanfu Xie; Steven Koch; Robert Atlas; Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ross N. Hoffman

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

108

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

HWVP pilot-scale vitrification system campaign: LFCM-8 summary report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) is being designed to treat the high-level radiative waste (HLW) stored in underground storage tanks as an alkaline sludge. Tank waste will first be retrieved and pretreated to minimize solids requiring vitrification as HLW. The glass product resulting from HWVP operations will be stored onsite in stainless steel canisters until the HLW repository is available for final disposal. The first waste stream scheduled to be processed by the HWVP is the neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) stored in double-shell storage tanks. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is supporting Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) by providing research, development, and engineering expertise in defined areas. As a part of this support, pilot-scale testing is being conducted to support closure of HWVP design and development issues. Testing results will verify equipment design performance, establish acceptable and optimum process parameters, and support product qualification activities.

Perez, J.M.; Whitney, L.D.; Buchmiller, W.C.; Daume, J.T.; Whyatt, G.A.

1996-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

111

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Summary of the systems prioritization method (SPM) as a decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In March 1994, the Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO) implemented a performance-based planning method to assist in programmatic prioritization within the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) project with respect to applicable Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) long-term performance requirements stated in 40 CFR 191.13(a) and 40 CFR 268.6. This method, the Systems Prioritization Method (SPM), was designed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to: (1) identify programmatic options (activities) and their costs and durations; (2) analyze potential combinations of activities in terms of predicted contribution to long-term performance; and (3) analyze cost, duration, and performance tradeoffs. SPM results were the basis for recommendations to DOE/CAO in May 1995 for prioritization within the WIPP project. This paper presents a summary of the SPM implementation, key results, and lessons learned.

Boak, D.M.; Prindle, N.H.; Lincoln, R.; Mendenhall, F.; Weiner, R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bills, R.A [USDOE Albuquerque Operations Office, Carlsbad, NM (United States). Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Project Office

1996-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

116

GENETIC ALGORITHMS FOR A SINGLE-TRACK VEHICLE AUTONOMOUS PILOT  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

GENETIC ALGORITHMS FOR A SINGLE-TRACK VEHICLE AUTONOMOUS PILOT Dana Vrajitoru Intelligent Systems algorithms to an autonomous pilot designed for motorized single-track vehicles (motorcycles). The pilot contribute efficiently to configuring the autonomous pilot. Key Words Genetic algorithms, multi

Vrajitoru, Dana

117

Nortel CallPilot A-Style Command Comparison Card  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Welcome to CallPilot. This card helps you to learn CallPilot by showing you the key differences between Welcome to CallPilot. This card helps you to learn CallPilot by showing you the key differences between CallPilot and your previous messaging system. For example, in CallPilot, you don't need a main menu. When you log in, you are at your first new message right away. To play your messages, compose new messages, or change mailbox settings, you use standard commands that are common to all features. Prompts guide you whenever you pause, and Help is always there when you need it - just press *. For further information, refer to the CallPilot Multimedia Messaging User Guide. Features CallPilot Previous system These keypad diagrams show the frequently used message commands in CallPilot and your previous system. In CallPilot, the following commands are

118

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

119

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant shaft sealing system compliance submittal design report. Volume 2 of 2: Appendix E  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a shaft sealing design for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a proposed nuclear waste repository in bedded salt. The system is designed to limit entry of water and release of contaminants through the four existing shafts after the WIPP is decommissioned. The design approach applies redundancy to functional elements and specifies multiple, common, low-permeability materials to reduce uncertainty in performance. The system comprises 13 elements that completely fill the shafts with engineered materials possessing high density and low permeability. Laboratory and field measurements of component properties and performance provide the basis for the design and related evaluations. Hydrologic, mechanical, thermal, and physical features of the system are evaluated in a series of calculations. These evaluations indicate that the design guidance is addressed by effectively limiting transport of fluids within the shafts, thereby limiting transport of hazardous material to regulatory boundaries. Additionally, the use or adaptation of existing technologies for placement of the seal components combined with the use of available, common materials assure that the design can be constructed.

NONE

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Enforcement Documents - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

related to Quality Assurance Deficiencies associated with the Super High-Efficiency Neutron Counter Non-Destructive Assay System Refurbishment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

122

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

123

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

124

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Automated Surface Observing System: Standby Power Options  

Energy Savers [EERE]

for pilot briefing, air traffic control, & weather forecasters Public access dial phone lines Initially UPS designed to back 3 options under consideration to extend backup power to...

126

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

129

Implementation of chemical controls through a backfill system for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A backfill system has been designed for the WIPP which will control the chemical environment of the post-closure repository to a domain where the actinide solubility is within its lowest region. The actinide solubility is highly dependent on the chemical species which constitute the fluid, the resulting pH of the fluid, and oxidation state of the actinide which is stable under the specific conditions. The implementation of magnesium oxide (MgO) as the backfill material not only controls the pH of the expected fluids but also effectively removes the carbonate from the system, which has a significant impact for actinide solubility. The selection process, emplacement system, design, and confirmatory experimental results are presented.

Bynum, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stockman, C.; Wang, Yifeng; Peterson, A.; Krumhansl, J.; Nowak, J.; Chu, M.S.Y. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cotton, J.; Patchet, S.J. [Westinghouse Electric Corp., Carlsbad, NM (United States). Waste Isolation Div.

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.

Duk Hee Lee; Sang Yong Park; Jong Chul Hong; Sang Jin Choi; Jong Wook Kim

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

THE HOMOGENEOUS STUDY OF TRANSITING SYSTEMS (HoSTS). I. THE PILOT STUDY OF WASP-13  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present the fundamental stellar and planetary properties of the transiting planetary system WASP-13 within the framework of the Homogeneous Study of Transiting Systems (HoSTS). HoSTS aims to derive the fundamental stellar (T{sub eff}, [Fe/H], M{sub *}, R{sub *}) and planetary (M{sub pl}, R{sub pl}, T{sub eq}) physical properties of known transiting planets using a consistent methodology and homogeneous high-quality data set. Four spectral analysis techniques are independently applied to a Keck+HIRES spectrum of WASP-13 considering two distinct cases: unconstrained parameters and constrained log g from transit light curves. We check the derived stellar temperature against that from a different temperature diagnostic based on an INT+IDS H{alpha} spectrum. The four unconstrained analyses render results that are in good agreement, and provide an improvement of 50% in the precision of T{sub eff}, and of 85% in [Fe/H] with respect to the WASP-13 discovery paper. The planetary parameters are then derived via the Monte Carlo Markov Chain modeling of the radial velocity and light curves, in iteration with stellar evolutionary models to derive realistic uncertainties. WASP-13 (1.187 {+-} 0.065 M{sub Sun }; 1.574 {+-} 0.048 R{sub Sun }) hosts a Saturn-mass, transiting planet (0.500 {+-} 0.037 M{sub Jup}; 1.407 {+-} 0.052 R{sub Jup}), and is at the end of its main-sequence lifetime (4-5.5 Gyr). Our analysis of WASP-13 showcases that both a detailed stellar characterization and transit modeling are necessary to well determine the fundamental properties of planetary systems, which are paramount in identifying and determining empirical relationships between transiting planets and their hosts.

Gomez Maqueo Chew, Yilen; Cargile, Phillip; Hebb, Leslie; Stassun, Keivan G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Faedi, Francesca; Pollacco, Don [Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Doyle, Amanda P.; Smalley, Barry [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG (United Kingdom); Ghezzi, Luan; Cunha, Katia; Smith, Verne V. [Observatorio Nacional, Rua Gal. Jose Cristino 77, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20921-400 (Brazil); Sousa, Sergio; Santos, Nuno C. [Centro de Astrofisica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Barros, Susana C. C. [LAM (Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille) UMR 7326, Aix Marseille Universite, CNRS, F-13388 Marseille (France); Schuler, Simon C. [Stewart Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Collier Cameron, Andrew, E-mail: yilen.gomez@vanderbilt.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

134

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

135

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

136

Pilot-Scale Demonstration of Surfactant-Enhanced PCE Solubilization at the Bachman Road Site. 2. System Operation and Evaluation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Based upon results from the feasibility study, the MDEQ subsequently authorized funding for a team of researchers (with members from the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Hazardous Substance Research Center, GeoTrans Inc., and MDEQ) to conduct a pilot-scale SEAR demonstration for source zone treatment underneath the northwest corner of the building. ...

C. Andrew Ramsburg; Kurt D. Pennell; Linda M. Abriola; Gary Daniels; Chad D. Drummond; Matt Gamache; Hsin-lan Hsu; Erik A. Petrovskis; Klaus M. Rathfelder; Jodi L. Ryder; Thomas P. Yavaraski

2005-02-12T23:59:59.000Z

137

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

138

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

139

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

140

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

142

Optimized Operation Strategies for PV Storages Systems Yield Limitations, Optimized Battery Configuration and the Benefit of a Perfect Forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Decreasing feed in tariffs and system prices combined with an increase of electricity tariffs supports the trend to install PV storage systems in private households. In the past years several investigations and field trials have shown, that these systems can increase the self consumption of PV-power and support the self sufficiency of private households [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. These systems also have a positive influence on the low-voltage grid [7], [8]. In recent years several investigations have been done to determine the optimal system configuration. They focus on the storage and PV generator size [9] or the applied storage technology [10]. In general, the mode of operation follows a simple regime: If PV production is larger than the actual consumption, PV power is stored. If the local consumption is higher than the actual PV production, stored power is used as long as available. Only slight modifications have been done, to map the price and efficiency effects of power electronics [11], [12]. Therefore, the results are limited to a single mode of operation. In this presentation, we derive a mathematical framework, which allows the calculation of the upper performance limit for a specific household and storage system, without any assumption on the operation strategy. We apply these analysis to a large set of German households and compare the upper performance limit for two different storage system designs: A system with relative short lifetime and small capacity on the one hand and another with a long lifetime and larger capacity

Armin U. Schmiegel; Andreas Kleine

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

144

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

145

Development of a pilot-scale kinetic extruder feeder system and test program. Phase II. Verification testing. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes the work done under Phase II, the verification testing of the Kinetic Extruder. The main objective of the test program was to determine failure modes and wear rates. Only minor auxiliary equipment malfunctions were encountered. Wear rates indicate useful life expectancy of from 1 to 5 years for wear-exposed components. Recommendations are made for adapting the equipment for pilot plant and commercial applications. 3 references, 20 figures, 12 tables.

Not Available

1984-01-12T23:59:59.000Z

146

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities

147

10 MW/sub e/ Solar Thermal Central Receiver Pilot Plant heliostat and beam characterization system evaluation, November 1981-December 1986  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Test and evaluation results for the heliostats and beam characterization system at the 10 MW/sub e/ Solar Thermal Central Receiver Pilot Plant are described in this report. Southern California Edison operated and maintained the plant during the five years covered by this evaluation. Therefore, the results represent what can be expected from a large number of heliostats that are operated over a long period of time in a power plant environment. The heliostats and beam characterization system were evaluated for their ability to meet performance and survival requirements. Heliostat evaluation results are reported for mirror soiling rates, mirror corrosion, wind loads, availability, maintenance requirements, tracking accuracy, beam quality, component temperatures, and operating power requirements. The heliostat beam characterization system accuracy is given for the measurement of beam quality, heliostat tracking accuracy, and power in the reflected beam. The heliostat technical specifications and design description are provided, and a detailed design description of the beam characterization system is included. 41 refs.

Mavis, C.L.

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

149

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

150

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security | Department...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security More Documents &...

153

Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

154

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

156

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Enforcement Documents - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Enforcement Documents - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant September 8, 2006 Enforcement Letter, Washington TRU Solutions - September 8, 2006 Enforcement Letter issued to Washington TRU Solutions, LLC related to Quality Assurance Deficiencies associated with the Super High-Efficiency Neutron Counter Non-Destructive Assay System Refurbishment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant October 28, 2004 Enforcement Letter, Diversified Metal Products, Inc - October 28, 2004 Issued to Diversified Metal Products, Inc. related to Transportainer Fabrication Deficiencies for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant August 30, 2004 Preliminary Notice of Violation, Washington TRU Solutions, LLC - EA-2004-08 Preliminary Notice of Violation issued to Washington TRU Solutions, LLC,

158

Forward and reverse combustion gasification of coal with production of high-quality syngas in a simulated pilot system for in situ gasification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This research focused on the feasibility and stability of applying the forward and reverse combustion approach to the in situ gasification of lignite and bituminous coal with oxygen or oxygen–steam mixtures as gasification agents, especially reverse combustion gasification. A high-quality syngas (H2 and CO) could be obtained using the reverse combustion gasification technique combined with forward combustion gasification in a pilot system for in situ gasification. The gasification time was extended more than 25% using the reverse combustion approach. The controlling conditions for reverse combustion gasification were obtained by comparing and analyzing experimental data. The results show the relationship between the inject gas flow within certain limits and velocity of the gasification flame was linear during reverse combustion. The underground conditions of the coal seam and strata were simulated in a pilot-scale underground gasifier during experiments. The combustion gasification of coal was carried out experimentally for over 5 days. The average effective content (H2 and CO) of syngas was in the range of 60–70%, meeting the requirement of synthesis gas. The optimal ranges of gasifying lignite and bituminous coal were found to be 1.5–2.0 and 1.3–1.75, respectively. The product gas flow was proportional to oxygen blast. These are expected to provide useful guidance on practical underground coal gasification operations and to give experimental evidence in support of theory.

Yong Cui; Jie Liang; Zhangqing Wang; Xiaochun Zhang; Chenzi Fan; Dongyu Liang; Xuan Wang

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Impact Evaluation of BGE's SEP 2009 Pilot | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation Comments of Baltimore Gas & Electric Company FERC Presendation: Demand Response as Power System Resources, October 29, 2010...

162

Steam System Forecasting and Management  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...

Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

165

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

166

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

168

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - Enforcement Documents  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Enforcement Documents Enforcement Documents Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Enforcement Letter issued to Washington TRU Solutions, LLC related to Quality Assurance Deficiencies associated with the Super High-Efficiency Neutron Counter Non-Destructive Assay System Refurbishment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, September 8, 2006 Preliminary Notice of Violation issued to Washington TRU Solutions, LLC, related to Radiological Uptakes at the Mobile Visual Examination and Repackaging Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, December 22, 2005 (EA-2005-08) - Washington TRU Solutions, LLC - Press Release, December 22, 2005 Enforcement Letter issued to Diversified Metal Products, Inc. related to Transportainer Fabrication Deficiencies for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, October 28, 2004

169

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

170

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

171

Weatherization Pilot Projects  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Webinars, fact sheets, and other information on Weatherization Assistance Program's Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers and Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program projects.

172

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Molteni et al. 1996) Ensemble Prediction System

Xue, Ming

173

Systems analysis, long-term radionuclide transport, and dose assessments, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), southeastern New Mexico, September 1989  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study supports the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement and has two main objectives. First, it describes current ideas about the characteristics and potential impacts of the disturbed-rock zone (DRZ) known to develop with time around excavations at the WIPP horizon. Second, it presents new calculations of radionuclide migration within and from the WIPP repository for steady-state undisturbed conditions and for two cases that consider human intrusion into the repository. At the WIPP, the presence of a DRZ has been confirmed by geophysical studies, gas-flow tests, and direct observations. The DRZ will allow gas or brine from waste-emplacement panels to bypass panel seals and flow into adjacent portions of the underground workings unless preventive measures are taken. Revised calculations of the undisturbed performance of the repository indicate that no radionuclides will be released into the Culebra Dolomite within the regulatory period of 10,000 years. The human-intrusion calculations included here assume a connection between the WIPP repository, an occurrence of pressurized brine within the underlying Castile Formation, and the overlying Culebra Dolomite. 61 refs., 40 figs., 16 tabs.

Lappin, A.R.; Hunter, R.L.; Davies, P.B.; Borns, D.J. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Reeves, M.; Pickens, J. (Intera Technologies, Inc., Austin, TX (USA)); Iuzzolino, H.J. (Geo-Centers, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1990-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

175

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

176

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

178

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

179

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

Shenoy, Prashant

180

FINAL REPORT TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-02R0100-2 REV 1 2/17/03  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from a series of nine tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part B1 [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plans. The nine tests reported here were preceded by an initial series of short-duration tests conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Reports. The DM1200 system was deployed for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. These tests include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The primary objective of the present series of tests was to determine the effects of a variety of parameters on the glass production rate in comparison to the RPP-WTP HL W design basis of 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d. Previous testing on the DMIOOO system [1] concluded that achievement of that rate with simulants of projected WTP melter feeds (AZ-101 and C-106/AY-102) was unlikely without the use of bubblers. As part of those tests, the same feed that was used during the cold-commissioning of the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) HLW vitrification system was run on the DM1000 system. The DM1000 tests reproduced the rates that were obtained at the larger WVDP facility, lending confidence to the tests results [1]. Since the inclusion or exclusion of a bubbler has significant design implications, the Project commissioned further tests to address this issue. In an effort to identify factors that might increase the glass production rate for projected WTP melter feeds, a subsequent series of tests was performed on the DM100 system. Several tests variables led to glass production rate increases to values significantly above the 400 kg/m2/d requirement. However, while small-scale melter tests are useful for screening relative effects, they tend to overestimate absolute glass production rates, particularly for un-bubbled tests. Consequently, when scale-up effects were taken into account, it was not clear that any of the variables investigated would conclusively meet the 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d requirement without bubbling. The present series of tests was therefore performed on the DM1200 one-third scale HLW pilot melter system to provide the required basis for a final decision on whether bubblers would be included in the HLW melter. The present tests employed the same AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing for consistency and comparability with the results from the earlier tests.

KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BARDAKCI T; GONG W; D'ANGELO NA; SCHATZ TR; PEGG IL

2011-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

183

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

184

An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

186

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots September 19, 2012 Presenter: Mike Hillman, Program Manager, Office of Health, Safety and Security, US Department of Energy Topics covered: Update DOE safety analysis and emergency management requirements/guidance and perform pilot applications Perform system walkdowns and evaluations at several Cat 1 and 2 DOE nuclear facilities to assess potential susceptibilities to natural phenomena hazards and external BDBEs Conduct emergency drills and exercises at DOE sites with nuclear facilities, focusing on BDBEs Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots More Documents & Publications Development of Guidance for Analysis of Beyond Design Basis Events Report to the Secretary of Energy on Beyond Design Basis Event Pilot

188

Water Cycle Pilot Study  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

1 Water Cycle Pilot Study To learn more about Earth's water cycle, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a multi-laboratory science team representing five DOE...

189

Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power in Porto) Power Systems Unit Porto, Portugal Industry Partners Horizon Wind Energy, LLC Midwest Independent

Kemner, Ken

190

Multi-Agent Autonomous Pilot for Motorcycles Dana Vrajitoru  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multi-Agent Autonomous Pilot for Motorcycles Dana Vrajitoru Intelligent Systems Laboratory Indiana with an automatic pilot. The application is written in OpenGL and includes a model of a vehicle (a motorcycle) based (Mourant & Marangos 2003). Our approach targets motorcycles which have not yet been studied as extensively

Vrajitoru, Dana

191

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

193

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

renewables hard week: - small load - large renewables #12;Why does variability matter? Source: Andrew Mills.com/downloads/Session%205- 5_Sandia%20National%20Labs_Stein.pdf; Mills, A. et al. LBNL-2855E #12;PV Systems in San Diego Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14

Homes, Christopher C.

195

10 MWe Solar Thermal Central Receiver Pilot Plant — Heliostat Evaluation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

At the 10 MWe Solar Central Receiver Pilot Plant near Barstow, California, the beam characterization system (BCS) has been upgraded and a sunshape measurement system has been added. Heliostat mirror cleanliness h...

C. L. Mavis

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Pilot design of biomass energy resources inquiry system based on MapX: a case of Liyang city in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With the rapid development of large- and medium-scale biomass energy utilisation in Jiangsu Province of China, to explore the potential of biomass energy resources availability becomes increasingly necessary. This paper analyses the biomass energy resources within Liyang City of Changzhou and designs a referral information system based on MapX software provided by Mapinfo GIS platform. The system is secondarily developed according to practical demand and achieves many functions of professional GIS software such as amplification, dwindling, scale enquiry, point enquiry, thememap and so on. The enquiry system will provide valuable reference to energy and environmental policies or relevant biomass energy enterprises.

Peibing Yan; Weiming Wu; Xiaohua Wang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

198

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

203

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

204

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

205

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

206

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

207

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant AFFIDAVIT FOR SURVIVING RELATIVE STATE _______________ ) ) ss: __________________ COUNTY OF _____________ ) That I, ________________________, am the _________________________ (Indicate relationship) of ___________________________, who is deceased and make the attached request pursuant to 10 CFR, Section 1008. That the information contained on the attached request is true and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief, and I am signing this authorization subject to the penalties provided in 18 U.S.C. 1001. ____________________________ SIGNATURE NOTARIZATION: SUBSCRIBED and SWORN to before me this ______day of __________, 20_____

208

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

210

Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

Magrini, Kim

2014-06-10T23:59:59.000Z

211

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

212

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate

Washington at Seattle, University of

213

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number

Haak, Hein

214

Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

competing numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For most sensibleweather metrics, we lag 1 to 1.5 days (i.e., they make a 3.5day of NOAA's current investment in weather satellites. Without a modern data assimilation system

Hamill, Tom

215

The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 3, Analysis for final programmatic recommendations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) is a decision-aiding tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the US DOE Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO). This tool provides an analytical basis for programmatic decision making for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). SPM integrates decision-analysis techniques, performance,a nd risk-assessment tools, and advanced information technology. Potential outcomes of proposed activities and combination of activities are used to calculate a probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) with selected regulations. The results are presented in a decision matrix showing cost, duration, and maximum PDC for all activities in a given cost and duration category. This is the third and final volume in the series which presents the analysis for final programmatic recommendations.

Prindle, N.H.; Boak, D.M.; Weiner, R.F. [and others] [and others

1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 1, Synopsis of method and results  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In March 1994, the US Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office (DOE/CAO) embarked on an effort to design and implement a performance- based decision-aiding tool to provide an analytical basis for planning, prioritizing, and selecting programmatic options for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). This tool, called Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) defines the most viable combinations of scientific investigations, engineered alternatives (EAs), and waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for supporting the final WIPP compliance application. The scope of SPM is restricted to selected portions of applicable Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) long-term performance regulations. SPM calculates the probabilities of certain sets of activities demonstrating compliance with various regulations. SPM provides results in the form of a decision matrix to identify cost-effective programmatic paths with a high probability of successfully demonstrating compliance.

Prindle, N.H.; Mendenhall, F.T.; Boak, D.M. [and others

1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - August 2000 |  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - August Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - August 2000 Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - August 2000 August 2000 Emergency Management Program Review at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Emergency Management Oversight, within the Secretary of Energy's Office of Independent Oversight and Performance Assurance, conducted a review of the emergency management program at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in May 2000. The primary purpose of this review was twofold: to assess selected emergency management system elements that focus on WIPP's readiness to protect site personnel and the public from the consequences of onsite events that may result in the release of hazardous materials; and to evaluate the site's ability to provide appropriate information or

218

Research of least squares support vector regression based on differential evolution algorithm in short-term load forecasting model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting a differential evolution algorithm (DE) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) method is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the regularization parameter and kernel parameter of the LSSVR by DE a short-term load forecasting model which can take load affected factors such as meteorology weather and date types into account is built. The proposed LSSVR method is proved by implementing short-term load forecasting on the real historical data of Yangquan power system in China. The average forecasting error is less than 1.6% which shows better accuracy and stability than the traditional LSSVR and Support vector regression. The result of implementation of short-term load forecasting demonstrates that the hybrid model can be used in the short-term forecasting of the power system more efficiently.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Power load forecasting using data mining and knowledge discovery technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the electric system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. This paper proposes a systemic framework that attempts to use data mining and knowledge discovery (DMKD) to pretreat the data. And a new model is proposed which combines artificial neural networks with data mining and knowledge discovery for electric load forecasting. With DMKD technology, the system not only could mine the historical daily loading which had the same meteorological category as the forecasting day to compose data sequence with highly similar meteorological features, but also could eliminate the redundant influential factors. Then an artificial neural network is constructed to predict according to its characteristics. Using this new model, it could eliminate the redundant information, accelerate the training speed of neural network and improve the stability of the convergence. Compared with single BP neural network, this new method can achieve greater forecasting accuracy.

Yongli Wang; Dongxiao Niu; Ling Ji

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Southern Study Area  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute – 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 – 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 – 3 hours.

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - Reports  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Reports Reports Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Review Report 2013 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Work Planning and Control Activities, April 2013 Review Report 2012 Review of Site Preparedness for Severe Natural Phenomena Events at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, November 2012 Activity Reports 2011 Orientation Visit to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, September 2011 Review Reports 2007 Independent Oversight Inspection of Emergency Management at the Carlsbad Field Office and Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 2007 Review Reports 2002 Inspection of Environment, Safety, and Health and Emergency Management at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - Summary Report, August 2002 Inspection of Environment, Safety, and Health Management at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - Volume I, August 2002

222

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

224

Wintertime sub-kilometer numerical forecasts of near-surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at sub-kilometrer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous ...

Vincent Vionnet; Stéphane Bélair; Claude Girard; André Plante

225

Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical ...

Michael E. Splitt; Steven M. Lazarus; Sarah Collins; Denis N. Botambekov; William P. Roeder

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a ...

Stefano Materia; Andrea Borrelli; Alessio Bellucci; Andrea Alessandri; Pierluigi Di Pietro; Panagiotis Athanasiadis; Antonio Navarra; Silvio Gualdi

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

An Improved Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Model for Short-term Travel Time Forecasting of Urban Arterial Street  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Short-term forecasting of travel time is essential for the success of intelligent transportation system. In this paper, we review the state-of-art of short-term traffic forecasting models and outline their basic ideas, related works, advantages and disadvantages of each model. An improved adaptive exponential smoothing (IAES) model is also proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the previous adaptive exponential smoothing model. Then, comparing experiments are carried out under normal traffic condition and abnormal traffic condition to evaluate the performance of four main branches of forecasting models on direct travel time data obtained by license plate matching (LPM). The results of experiments show each model seems to have its own strength and weakness. The forecasting performance of IASE is superior to other models in shorter forecasting horizon (one and two step forecasting) and the IASE is capable of dealing with all kind of traffic conditions.

Zhi-Peng LI; Hong YU; Yun-Cai LIU; Fu-Qiang LIU

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

228

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

PILOT: design and capabilities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The proposed design for PILOT is a general-purpose, wide-field 1 degree 2.4m, f/10 Ritchey-Chretien telescope, with fast tip-tilt guiding, for use 0.5-25 microns. The design allows both wide-field and diffraction-limited use at these wavelengths. The expected overall image quality, including median seeing, is 0.28-0.3" FWHM from 0.8-2.4 microns. Point source sensitivities are estimated.

W. Saunders; P. R. Gillingham; A. J. McGrath; J. W. V. Storey; J. S. Lawrence

2008-01-29T23:59:59.000Z

230

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

E-Print Network 3.0 - amblyopia six-month pilot Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

about the dates and places of the workshops and other general... to expand the software architecture . Apply research results to pilot systems Implement robust...

232

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

233

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

234

Energy Economic Zone Pilot Program (Florida) | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Energy Economic Zone Pilot Program (Florida) Energy Economic Zone Pilot Program (Florida) Energy Economic Zone Pilot Program (Florida) < Back Eligibility Agricultural Commercial Construction Fed. Government Fuel Distributor General Public/Consumer Industrial Installer/Contractor Institutional Investor-Owned Utility Local Government Low-Income Residential Multi-Family Residential Municipal/Public Utility Nonprofit Residential Retail Supplier Rural Electric Cooperative Schools State/Provincial Govt Systems Integrator Transportation Tribal Government Utility Savings Category Alternative Fuel Vehicles Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Buying & Making Electricity Water Home Weatherization Solar Program Info State Florida Program Type Enterprise Zone Provider Florida Department of Economic Opportunity In the 2009 Legislative Session, the Florida Legislature established the

235

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

236

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

DENVER, CO DENVER, CO WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT ACTIVITIES ACTIVITIES O.W. EATON MANAGER, EXTERNAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OPENING OF NEW ROUTES COMPLIANCE WITH PUBLIC LAW 102 579 WIPP LANDWITHDRAWL 102-579 WIPP LANDWITHDRAWL ACT OF 1992 1082 EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TRAINED IN 2010 *MERRTT 1082 EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TRAINED IN 2010 MERRTT *INCIDENT COMMAND SYSTEM *HOSPITAL PREPAREDNESS *HOSPITAL PREPAREDNESS *MEDICAL EXAMINER DISPATCHER (BETA) *DISPATCHER (BETA) RADIOLOGICAL TRAINING RADIOLOGICAL TRAINING FOR FOR FOR FOR HOSPITAL PERSONNEL HOSPITAL PERSONNEL Based on FEMA Course G-346 iNTRODUCTION 4 Hazardous Materials Accidents Part 1 WIPP EXTERNAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT EXERCISES CONDUCTED E ercise Location Date Exercise Location Date TRANSAX 90 Colorado Springs, Colorado November 8, 1990 1

237

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

238

Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

239

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

240

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Microbial field pilot study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this project is to perform a microbial enhanced oil recovery field pilot in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been referentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. This report covers progress made during the second year, January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1990, of the Microbial Field Pilot Study project. Information on reservoir ecology, surface facilities design, operation of the unit, core experiments, modeling of microbial processes, and reservoir characterization and simulation are presented in the report. To better understand the ecology of the target reservoir, additional analyses of the fluids which support bacteriological growth and the microbiology of the reservoir were performed. The results of the produced and injected water analysis show increasing sulfide concentrations with respect to time. In March of 1990 Mesa Limited Partnership sold their interest in the SEVVSU to Sullivan and Company. In April, Sullivan and Company assumed operation of the field. The facilities for the field operation of the pilot were refined and implementation was begun. Core flood experiments conducted during the last year were used to help define possible mechanisms involved in microbial enhanced oil recovery. The experiments were performed at SEVVSU temperature using fluids and inoculum from the unit. The model described in last year`s report was further validated using results from a core flood experiment. The model was able to simulate the results of one of the core flood experiments with good quality.

Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Microbial field pilot study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this project is to perform a microbial enhanced oil recovery field pilot in the Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU) in Payne County, Oklahoma. Indigenous, anaerobic, nitrate reducing bacteria will be stimulated to selectively plug flow paths which have been referentially swept by a prior waterflood. This will force future flood water to invade bypassed regions of the reservoir and increase sweep efficiency. This report covers progress made during the second year, January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1990, of the Microbial Field Pilot Study project. Information on reservoir ecology, surface facilities design, operation of the unit, core experiments, modeling of microbial processes, and reservoir characterization and simulation are presented in the report. To better understand the ecology of the target reservoir, additional analyses of the fluids which support bacteriological growth and the microbiology of the reservoir were performed. The results of the produced and injected water analysis show increasing sulfide concentrations with respect to time. In March of 1990 Mesa Limited Partnership sold their interest in the SEVVSU to Sullivan and Company. In April, Sullivan and Company assumed operation of the field. The facilities for the field operation of the pilot were refined and implementation was begun. Core flood experiments conducted during the last year were used to help define possible mechanisms involved in microbial enhanced oil recovery. The experiments were performed at SEVVSU temperature using fluids and inoculum from the unit. The model described in last year's report was further validated using results from a core flood experiment. The model was able to simulate the results of one of the core flood experiments with good quality.

Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Microbial Field Pilot Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report covers progress made during the first year of the Microbial Field Pilot Study project. Information on reservoir ecology and characterization, facility and treatment design, core experiments, bacterial mobility, and mathematical modeling are addressed. To facilitate an understanding of the ecology of the target reservoir analyses of the fluids which support bacteriological growth and the microbiology of the reservoir were performed. A preliminary design of facilities for the operation of the field pilot test was prepared. In addition, procedures for facilities installation and for injection treatments are described. The Southeast Vassar Vertz Sand Unit (SEVVSU), the site of the proposed field pilot study, is described physically, historically, and geologically. The fields current status is presented and the ongoing reservoir simulation is discussed. Core flood experiments conducted during the last year were used to help define possible mechanisms involved in microbial enhanced oil recovery. Two possible mechanisms, relative permeability effects and changes in the capillary number, are discussed and related to four Berea core experiments' results. The experiments were conducted at reservoir temperature using SEVVSU oil, brine, and bacteria. The movement and activity of bacteria in porous media were investigated by monitoring the growth of bacteria in sandpack cores under no flow conditions. The rate of bacteria advancement through the cores was determined. A mathematical model of the MEOR process has been developed. The model is a three phase, seven species, one dimensional model. Finite difference methods are used for solution. Advection terms in balance equations are represented with a third- order upwind differencing scheme to reduce numerical dispersion and oscillations. The model is applied to a batch fermentation example. 52 refs., 26 figs., 21 tabs.

Knapp, R.M.; McInerney, M.J.; Menzie, D.E.; Chisholm, J.L.

1990-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-01-17T23:59:59.000Z

245

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

247

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

248

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

249

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

250

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

251

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

252

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

254

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

255

Oversight Reports - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

2011 Orientation Visit to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant HIAR-WIPP-2011-09-07 November 26, 2007 Independent Oversight Inspection, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - December 2007...

256

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Operators prepare drums of contact-handled transuranic waste for loading into transportation containers Operators prepare...

257

Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

2008-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

258

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Short-term wind forecast for the safety management of complex areas during hazardous wind events  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes the short-term wind forecast system realised in the framework of the European Project “Wind and Ports: The forecast of wind for the management and safety of port areas”. The project?s aim is to contribute improving the safety and accessibility to the harbour areas of the largest ports in the Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, which are frequently exposed to hazardous winds, in order to minimise the risks for users, structures, transport means, stored goods and boats within the ports. The short-term wind forecast system is based on a mixed statistical-numerical procedure, trained by means of local wind measurements and implemented into an operational chain for the real-time prediction of the maximum expected wind velocity corresponding to three forecast horizons (30, 60 and 90 min) and three non-exceeding probabilities (90%, 95%, and 99%). The local wind measurements used to train the forecast algorithms have been recorded from the 15 ultra-sonic anemometers installed in the Ports of Savona, La Spezia, and Livorno. This wind-monitoring network is used also to carry out the short-term forecast system a posteriori verification and validation.

M. Burlando; M. Pizzo; M.P. Repetto; G. Solari; P. De Gaetano; M. Tizzi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

Murray City Power - Net Metering Pilot Program | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Murray City Power - Net Metering Pilot Program Murray City Power - Net Metering Pilot Program Murray City Power - Net Metering Pilot Program < Back Eligibility Commercial General Public/Consumer Residential Savings Category Solar Buying & Making Electricity Home Weatherization Water Wind Program Info State Utah Program Type Net Metering Provider Murray City Power Under a pilot program, Murray City Power offers net metering to customers that generate electricity using photovoltaic (PV), wind-electric or hydroelectric systems with a maximum capacity of 10 kilowatts (kW).* The utility will install and maintain a revenue meter capable of registering the bi-directional flow of electricity at the customer's facility. Any customer net excess generation (NEG) is carried over to the customer's next bill as a kilowatt-hour credit. Each April, any remaining NEG credits are

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Americium/Curium Vitrification Pilot Tests - Part II  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Isotopes of americium (Am) and curium (Cm) were produced in the past at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for research, medical, and radiological applications. These highly radioactive and valuable isotopes have been stored in an SRS reprocessing facility for a number of years. Vitrification of this solution will allow the material to be more safely stored until it is transported to the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation for use in research and medical applications. A previous paper described operation results from the Am-Cm Melter 2A pilot system, a full-scale non-radioactive pilot facility. This paper presents the results from continued testing in the Pilot Facility and also describes efforts taken to look at alternative vitrification process operations and flowsheets designed to address the problems observed during melter 2A pilot testing.

Marra, J.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States); Baich, M.A.; Fellinger, A.P.; Hardy, B.J.; Herman, D.T.; Jones, T.M.; Miller, C.B.; Miller, D.H.; Snyder, T. K.; Stone, M.E.

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

263

Advanced Gasifier Pilot Plant Concept Definition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents results from definition of a preferred commercial-scale advanced gasifier configuration and concept definition for a gasification pilot plant incorporating those preferred technologies. The preferred commercial gasifier configuration was established based on Cost Of Electricity estimates for an IGCC. Based on the gasifier configuration trade study results, a compact plug flow gasifier, with a dry solids pump, rapid-mix injector, CMC liner insert and partial quench system was selected as the preferred configuration. Preliminary systems analysis results indicate that this configuration could provide cost of product savings for electricity and hydrogen ranging from 15%-20% relative to existing gasifier technologies. This cost of product improvement draws upon the efficiency of the dry feed, rapid mix injector technology, low capital cost compact gasifier, and >99% gasifier availability due to long life injector and gasifier liner, with short replacement time. A pilot plant concept incorporating the technologies associated with the preferred configuration was defined, along with cost and schedule estimates for design, installation, and test operations. It was estimated that a 16,300 kg/day (18 TPD) pilot plant gasifier incorporating the advanced gasification technology and demonstrating 1,000 hours of hot-fire operation could be accomplished over a period of 33 months with a budget of $25.6 M.

Steve Fusselman; Alan Darby; Fred Widman

2005-08-31T23:59:59.000Z

264

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

266

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

267

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

268

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

269

NETL: Ion Advanced Solvent CO2 Capture Pilot Project  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ion Advanced Solvent CO2 Capture Pilot Project Ion Advanced Solvent CO2 Capture Pilot Project Project No.: DE-FE0013303 ION Engineering is conducting small pilot-scale (~ 0.7 MW) testing of an advanced CO2 capture solvent technology that has previously undergone bench-scale testing. The small pilot-scale testing will involve continuous long-term operation in order to gather the necessary data ultimately required for further scale-up. Activities will include the design and fabrication of the 0.5-0.7 MWe (equivalent) slipstream pilot plant; scale-up of solvent manufacturing; testing, data collection, and analysis of solvent performance; degradation and air emission analysis; modeling and simulation for the detailed preliminary and final techno-economic analyses; and decommissioning of pilot plant equipment upon completion of solvent testing. The advanced solvent is anticipated to have significant operating and capital cost advantages over other solvents currently in development. Advantages include significant reductions in parasitic load and liquid flow rates which directly translate to smaller more efficient CO2 capture processes. Make-up water and amine emissions rates will be examined during this project. There is the potential that additional solvent, system, and integration savings will be identified, which could result in further operating and capital cost reductions.

270

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

273

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

274

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

275

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

276

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

277

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

279

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

280

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

284

NETL: Mercury Emissions Control Technologies - Pilot Testing of Mercury  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts Project Summary Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts Project Summary URS Group, Inc., Austin, TX, will demonstrate at the pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion, and the use of a wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system downstream to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project's pilot tests, conducted at electric generating plants using wet flue gas desulfurization systems and particulate collection systems, will be conducted for periods up to 14 months to provide data for future, full-scale designs. Mercury-oxidation potential will be measured periodically to provide long-term catalyst life data. The project is applicable to about 90,000 megawatts of generation capacity. Project partners are the Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, which will co-manage and co-fund the pilot tests, and five utilities.

285

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

286

Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We propose to develop a dynamic algorithm that intelligently analyzes existing solar weather data and constructs an increasingly more accurate equation/algorithm for predicting solar weather accurately in real time. This dynamic algorithm analyzes a...

Fischer, Luke D.

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

287

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Needs Assessment | Department of...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Needs Assessment Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Needs Assessment May 2012 This Needs Assessment for former Waste Isolation Pilot Plant production workers...

288

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Activites More Documents & Publications EIS-0026: 2010 Annual Mitigation...

289

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Isolation Pilot Plant Update Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update More Documents & Publications TRUPACT-III Quick Facts "TRU" Success: SRS Recovery...

290

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 | Department...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 Overview of WIPP presented by Dr. Dave Moody. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

291

Generating and Calibrating Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution NWP Model COSMO-DE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Statistical postprocessing is an integral part of an ensemble prediction system. This study compares methods used to derive probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the high-resolution version of the German-focused Consortium ...

Sabrina Bentzien; Petra Friederichs

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

FINAL REPORT START-UP AND COMMISSIONING TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-01R0100-2 REV 0 1/20/03  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from commissioning tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM 1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part BI [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plan. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Report. The DM1200 system will be used for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. This will include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The results presented in this report are from the initial series of short-duration tests that were conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system prior to conducting the main body of development tests that have been planned for this system. These tests were directed primarily at system 'debugging,' operator training, and procedure refinement. The AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing was selected for these tests.

KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BRANDYS M; WILSON CN; SCHATZ TR; GONG W; PEGG IL

2011-12-29T23:59:59.000Z

293

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

WIPP WIPP Transportation Security Gregory M. Sahd Security Manager Carlsbad Field Office U.S. Department of Energy Contact Information Gregory M. Sahd Security Operations Carlsbad Field Office * U.S. Department of Energy 575.234.8117 * Greg.Sahd@wipp.ws WIPP Transportation "...The (WIPP transportation) system is safer than that employed for any other hazardous material in the U.S...." - National Academy of Sciences, WIPP Panel Hanford Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Los Alamos National Laboratory Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Savannah River Site Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Argonne National Laboratory - East Nevada Test Site Argonne National Laboratory - West Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory CBFO Manager Senior Management

296

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

298

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

299

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants Cycle 2 The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants, which were directed at improving human health project. Funding decisions for the second cycle of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants were announced

Church, George M.

300

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants Cycle 1 The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants, which were directed at improving human health project. Funding decisions for the first cycle of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants were announced

Church, George M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants Cycle 3 The Harvard Catalyst Pilot Grants Program sponsored three cycles of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants, which were directed at improving human health project. Funding decisions for the third cycle of Biomedical Collaborative Pilot Grants were announced

Church, George M.

302

IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract ­ Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years

Sandborn, Peter

303

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

304

A GIS tool for the evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of a numerical weather prediction model using satellite data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the possibility of implementing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for developing an integrated and automatic operational system for the real-time evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the numerical weather prediction model BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model) in Greece, is examined. In fact, the precipitation estimates derived by an infrared satellite technique are used for real-time qualitative and quantitative verification of the precipitation forecasts of the model BOLAM through the use of a GIS tool named as precipitation forecasts evaluator (PFE). The application of the developed tool in a case associated with intense precipitation in Greece, suggested that PFE could be a very important support tool for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting of such events.

Haralambos Feidas; Themistoklis Kontos; Nikolaos Soulakellis; Konstantinos Lagouvardos

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

306

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

307

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

308

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

310

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

311

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

312

Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2013 |  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

April April 2013 Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2013 April 2013 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Work Planning and Control Activities The Office of Enforcement and Oversight (Independent Oversight), within the Office of Health, Safety and Security (HSS), conducted a shadowing oversight activity to review the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) oversight of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). This Independent Oversight activity was performed by HSS Office of Safety and Emergency Management Evaluations personnel shadowing the CBFO's review of the WIPP operating contractor's Work Control Improvement Plan implementation and effectiveness review, and CBFO's annual review of the contractor's Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS), specifically

313

Hydrogen Fuel Pilot Plant and Hydrogen ICE Vehicle Testing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Department Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA) teamed with Electric Transportation Applications (ETA) and Arizona Public Service (APS) to develop the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant that produces and compresses hydrogen on site through an electrolysis process by operating a PEM fuel cell in reverse; natural gas is also compressed onsite. The Pilot Plant dispenses 100% hydrogen, 15 to 50% blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas (H/CNG), and 100% CNG via a credit card billing system at pressures up to 5,000 psi. Thirty internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (including Daimler Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles) are operating on 100% hydrogen and 15 to 50% H/CNG blends. Since the Pilot Plant started operating in June 2002, they hydrogen and H/CNG ICE vehicels have accumulated 250,000 test miles.

J. Francfort (INEEL)

2005-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

316

Travel Time Forecasting Lyngby 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

part of a new real-time traffic reporting system. This system is in the pipeline in the framework steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 7.4 Data cleaning, repair and aggregation

317

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

319

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

320

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

322

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

323

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

324

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

325

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

hydrogen pilot plant, H2ICE vehicle testing INL alternative energy vehicles  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Hydrogen Pilot Plant, H2ICE Hydrogen Pilot Plant, H2ICE Vehicle Testing, & INL Alternative Energy Vehicles (Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity) Jim Francfort Discovery Center of Idaho - September 2005 INL/CON-05-00694 AVTA Presentation Outline * Arizona Public Service's Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant Design and Operations * Hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicle testing * Oil bypass filter system evaluation * Diesel engine idling testing * INL alternative fuel infrastructure * INL alternative fuel fleet * WWW information APS Alternative Fuel (Alt-Fuel) Pilot Plant - Partners * Arizona Public Service (APS) * Electric Transportation Applications (ETA) * Idaho National Laboratory (INL) * Started operations - 2002 Alt-Fuel Pilot Plant & Vehicle Testing - Objectives * Evaluate the safety & reliability of operating ICE

327

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

328

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

329

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

330

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

331

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

332

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

334

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

335

Natural Calamities and Their Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Man and the Environment (habitat) comprise an integrated system consisting of numerous inter-related elements, possessing specific traits, and streamlined within certain boundaries. The interaction between Man...

Valery A. Menshikov; Anatoly N. Perminov…

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning

2014-04-14T23:59:59.000Z

337

A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily.

Zhongyue Su; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu; Ge Zhao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

338

Piloting the Smart Grid | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Piloting the Smart Grid Piloting the Smart Grid Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Piloting the Smart Grid Focus Area: Crosscutting Topics: Best Practices Website: www.smartgridnews.com/artman/uploads/1/Piloting_the_smart_grid__05-29- Equivalent URI: cleanenergysolutions.org/content/piloting-smart-grid Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations,Financial Incentives" is not in the list of possible values (Deployment Programs, Financial Incentives, Regulations) for this property. DeploymentPrograms: Demonstration & Implementation Regulations: Cost Recovery/Allocation This paper provides guidance regarding when and how Smart Grid piloting studies should be conducted along with examples from several recent pilots that involved dynamic pricing, a key element of the smart grid. Smart Grid

339

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NUMERICAL FORECAST OF THE MELTING AND THERMAL HISTORIES OF PARTICLES INJECTED IN A PLASMA JET Jorge of the melting process of a particle injected in a plasma jet. The plasma process is nowadays applied to produce devices. Among the different coating systems, the thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are commonly used

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

A COMPARISON OF CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL QUANTITIES WITH FORECASTS FROM CLOUD PREDICTION MODELS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, Bethesda, MD March 15-19, 2010 Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content

342

Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models ­ Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

343

Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert

Marseille, Gert-Jan

344

European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

345

Convective-scale Warn on Forecast: A Vision for 2020 David J. Stensrud1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma 5 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods since these phenomena forecast guidance. Since increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warning lead times

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.

346

most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines

Wisconsin at Madison, University of

347

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha?1 in June and 0.4 t ha?1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha?1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.

Felix Kogan; Nataliia Kussul; Tatiana Adamenko; Sergii Skakun; Oleksii Kravchenko; Oleksii Kryvobok; Andrii Shelestov; Andrii Kolotii; Olga Kussul; Alla Lavrenyuk

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

348

US/Brazil joint pilot project objectives  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a joint US/Brazil pilot project for rural electrification, whose major goals are: to establish technical, institutional, and economic confidence in using renewable energy (PV and wind) to meet the needs of the citizens of rural Brazil; to establish on-going institutional, individual and business relationships necessary to implement sustainable programs and commitments; to lay the groundwork for larger scale rural electrification through the use of distributed renewable technologies. The projects have supported low power home lighting systems, lighting and refrigeration for schools and medical centers, and water pumping systems. This is viewed as a long term project, where much of the equipment will come from the US, but Brazil will be responsible for program management, and sharing data gained from the program. The paper describes in detail the Brazilian program which was instituted to support this phased project.

NONE

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

Cañizares, Claudio A.

350

AZ CO2 Storage Pilot  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

CO2 Storage Pilot Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships Initiative Review Meeting Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania October 7, 2008 John Henry Beyer, Ph.D. WESTCARB Program Manager, Geophysicist 510-486-7954, jhbeyer@lbl.gov Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Earth Sciences Division, MS 90-1116 Berkeley, CA 94720 2 WESTCARB region has major CO2 point sources 3 WESTCARB region has many deep saline formations - candidates for CO2 storage WESTCARB also created GIS layers for oil/gas fields and deep coal basins Source: DOE Carbon Sequestration Atlas of the United States and Canada 4 - Aspen Environmental - Bevilacqua-Knight, Inc. Arizona Utilities CO2 Storage Pilot Contracting and Funding Flow Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory Lawrence Berkeley National

351

WRI Pilot Test 2012.pub  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Phase 2: Pilot Test Phase 2: Pilot Test Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract number DE-AC05-00OR22725 Research Areas Freight Flows Passenger Flows Supply Chain Efficiency Transportation: Energy Environment Safety Security Vehicle Technologies Research Brief T he U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has commissioned the Wireless Roadside Inspection (WRI) Program to validate technologies and methodologies that can improve safety through inspections using wireless technologies that convey real-time identification of commercial vehicles, drivers, and carriers, as well as information about the status of the vehicles and their drivers. It is

352

The National Conversion Pilot Project  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Conversion Pilot Project (NCPP) is a recycling project under way at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Colorado. The recycling aim of the project is threefold: to reuse existing nuclear weapon component production facilities for the production of commercially marketable products, to reuse existing material (uranium, beryllium, and radioactively contaminated scrap metals) for the production of these products, and to reemploy former Rocky Flats workers in this process.

Roberts, A.V. [BNFL, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

353

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

354

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

355

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

356

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

357

PanDA Pilot Submission using Condor-G: Experience and Improvements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

PanDA (Production and Distributed Analysis) is the workload management system of the ATLAS experiment, used to run managed production and user analysis jobs on the grid. As a late-binding, pilot-based system, the maintenance of a smooth and steady stream of pilot jobs to all grid sites is critical for PanDA operation. The ATLAS Computing Facility (ACF) at BNL, as the ATLAS Tier1 center in the US, operates the pilot submission systems for the US. This is done using the PanDA 'AutoPilot' scheduler component which submits pilot jobs via Condor-G, a grid job scheduling system developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In this paper, we discuss the operation and performance of the Condor-G pilot submission at BNL, with emphasis on the challenges and issues encountered in the real grid production environment. With the close collaboration of Condor and PanDA teams, the scalability and stability of the overall system has been greatly improved over the last year. We review improvements made to Condor-G resulting from this collaboration, including isolation of site-based issues by running a separate Gridmanager for each remote site, introduction of the 'Nonessential' job attribute to allow Condor to optimize its behavior for the specific character of pilot jobs, better understanding and handling of the Gridmonitor process, as well as better scheduling in the PanDA pilot scheduler component. We will also cover the monitoring of the health of the system.

Zhao X.; Hover John; Wlodek Tomasz; Wenaus Torre; Frey Jaime; Tannenbaum Todd; Livny Miron

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

358

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

359

Renewable Energy Pilot Program | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Renewable Energy Pilot Program Renewable Energy Pilot Program Renewable Energy Pilot Program < Back Eligibility Investor-Owned Utility Rural Electric Cooperative Savings Category Bioenergy Commercial Heating & Cooling Manufacturing Buying & Making Electricity Alternative Fuel Vehicles Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Water Energy Sources Solar Home Weatherization Heating & Cooling Wind Program Info State Louisiana Program Type Other Policy Provider Louisiana Public Service Commission In June 2010, the Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) unanimously approved a Renewable Energy Pilot Program for the state. The final implementation plan was adopted in November 2010. The goal of the pilot program is to determine whether a renewable portfolio standard is suitable for Louisiana. The pilot program has two major components: the Research

360

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | June 2007 Salt Disposal Investigations Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | June 2007 Salt Disposal Investigations The mission of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant site is to provide permanent, underground disposal of TRU and TRU-mixed wastes (wastes that also have hazardous chemical components). TRU waste consists of clothing, tools, and debris left from the research and production of nuclear weapons. TRU waste is contaminated with small amounts of plutonium and other TRU radioactive elements. Over the next 35 years, WIPP is expected to receive approximately 175,000 cubic meters of waste from various DOE sites. Enforcement September 8, 2006 Enforcement Letter, Washington TRU Solutions - September 8, 2006

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

DOE/WIPP-10-2225 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

WIPP-10-2225 WIPP-10-2225 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental Report for 2009 Errata U.S. Department of Energy September 2010 2 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental Report for 2009 DOE/WIPP-10-2225 3 2009 Annual Site Environmental Report To our readers: This Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Annual Site Environmental Report for 2009 presents summary environmental data to (1) characterize site environmental management performance, (2) summarize environmental occurrences and responses reported during the calendar year, (3) confirm compliance with environmental standards and requirements, and (4) highlight the WIPP Environmental Management System (EMS), significant environmental programs, and accomplishments including progress toward the

362

A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.

Sajjad Kouhi; Farshid Keynia; Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

365

Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Requirements for Requirements for m461:Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions Tomek Plewa (Florida State University) + 3 graduate students, Artur Gawryszczak (Warsaw), Konstantinos Kifonidis (Munich), Andrzej Odrzywolek (Cracow), Ju Zhang (FIT), Andrey Zhiglo (Kharkov) 1. m461: Stellar Explosions in Three Dimensions * Summarize your projects and expected scientific objectives through 2014 * Modeling and simulations of transient phenomena in stellar astrophysics driven by either radiation or thermonuclear processes * Numerical solution of a coupled system of PDEs and ODEs * Tame nonlinearity! * Our goal is to ... * Explain observed properties of exploding stellar objects * Present focus is ... * Neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions * In the next 3 years we expect to ...

366

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Metal Products, Inc - October 28, 2004 More enforcement documents Oversight Reports April 22, 2013 Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2013...

367

Independent Oversight Inspection, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Plant, Summary Report - August 2002 Independent Oversight Inspection, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Summary Report - August 2002 August 2002 Inspection of Environment, Safety, and...

368

Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

December 2014 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Recovery Plan for Operating Diesel Equipment with Available Underground Airflows. The Office of Nuclear Safety and...

369

Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

December, 2014 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Conduct of Maintenance Recovery Plan The Office of Nuclear Safety and Environmental Assessments, within the U.S. Department...

370

Intercomparison and Coupling of Ensemble and Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Methods for the Analysis and Forecasting of Hurricane Karl (2010)  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the performance of ensemble and variational data assimilation systems for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. These methods include an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), an incremental four-dimensional variational ...

Jonathan Poterjoy; Fuqing Zhang

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

371

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

372

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

375

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

376

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

377

Petrel: Data Management and Sharing Pilot | Argonne Leadership...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Projects Cobalt Scheduler GLEAN Petrel Swift Petrel: Data Management and Sharing Pilot The Petrel Data Service pilot provides a mechanism for Argonne researchers and ALCF users to...

378

2014 call for NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program 2014 call for NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program Due December 10 November 18, 2013 by Francesca Verdier (0 Comments)...

379

Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots | Department of...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots Results from Beyond Design Basis Event Pilots September 19, 2012 Presenter: Mike Hillman, Program Manager, Office of Health, Safety...

380

Carbon Fiber Pilot Plant and Research Facilities | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Pilot Plant and Research Facilities Carbon Fiber Pilot Plant and Research Facilities 2010 DOE Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen Programs Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

ENERGY STAR Appliance Verification Testing - Pilot Program Summary...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Appliance Verification Testing - Pilot Program Summary Report dated February 3, 2012 ENERGY STAR Appliance Verification Testing - Pilot Program Summary Report dated February 3,...

382

Texas Propane Vehicle Pilot Project | Department of Energy  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Texas Propane Vehicle Pilot Project Texas Propane Vehicle Pilot Project 2012 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review and Peer...

383

Sandia National Laboratories: Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Accident...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ClimateECEnergyComputational Modeling & SimulationWaste Isolation Pilot Plant Accident Investigation Analysis Support Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Accident Investigation Analysis...

384

Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Presentation-given at the Fall 2011 Federal Utility...

385

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have Banner Year in 2013 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, National Transuranic Program Have Banner Year in 2013 December 24,...

386

San Diego Hero Alliance: Community-Based Social Marketing Pilot...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

San Diego Hero Alliance: Community-Based Social Marketing Pilot Program San Diego Hero Alliance: Community-Based Social Marketing Pilot Program Presents an overview of the...

387

Conceptual design of a black liquor gasification pilot plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In July 1985, Champion International completed a study of kraft black liquor gasification and use of the product gases in a combined cycle cogeneration system based on gas turbines. That study indicated that gasification had high potential as an alternative to recovery boiler technology and offered many advantages. This paper describes the design of the plant, the construction of the pilot plant, and finally presents data from operation of the plant.

Kelleher, E. G.

1987-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

388

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The following provides a summary of the specific issues addressed in this FY-95 Annual Update as they relate to the CH TRU safety bases: Executive Summary; Site Characteristics; Principal Design and Safety Criteria; Facility Design and Operation; Hazards and Accident Analysis; Derivation of Technical Safety Requirements; Radiological and Hazardous Material Protection; Institutional Programs; Quality Assurance; and Decontamination and Decommissioning. The System Design Descriptions`` (SDDS) for the WIPP were reviewed and incorporated into Chapter 3, Principal Design and Safety Criteria and Chapter 4, Facility Design and Operation. This provides the most currently available final engineering design information on waste emplacement operations throughout the disposal phase up to the point of permanent closure. Also, the criteria which define the TRU waste to be accepted for disposal at the WIPP facility were summarized in Chapter 3 based on the WAC for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.`` This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) documents the safety analyses that develop and evaluate the adequacy of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Contact-Handled Transuranic Wastes (WIPP CH TRU) safety bases necessary to ensure the safety of workers, the public and the environment from the hazards posed by WIPP waste handling and emplacement operations during the disposal phase and hazards associated with the decommissioning and decontamination phase. The analyses of the hazards associated with the long-term (10,000 year) disposal of TRU and TRU mixed waste, and demonstration of compliance with the requirements of 40 CFR 191, Subpart B and 40 CFR 268.6 will be addressed in detail in the WIPP Final Certification Application scheduled for submittal in October 1996 (40 CFR 191) and the No-Migration Variance Petition (40 CFR 268.6) scheduled for submittal in June 1996. Section 5.4, Long-Term Waste Isolation Assessment summarizes the current status of the assessment.

NONE

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Pilot tests guide VOC control choice  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On-site pilot testing determines proper operating conditions for catalysts of pollution control equipment at optimum performance levels while demonstrating their ability to reduce emissions, odors and opacity from stack gases in manufacturing processes. Examples are provided ofr the catalytic control of emissions from coffee roasting, carbon fiber manufacturing, and can coating. Portable oxidizer units are employed in the pilot testing.

Van Benschoten, D.M. [Johnson Matthey Environmental Products, Wayne, PA (United States)

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2006), 132, pp. 29052923 doi: 10.1256/qj.06.25 Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that many commonly used systems of measurement (`metrics') in weather forecast verification are capable of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics

Hamill, Tom

393

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.

Weigang Zhao; Jianzhou Wang; Haiyan Lu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

397

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

399

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

402

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

403

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

404

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

405

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

406

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

407

Adverse Rotorcraft-Pilot Couplings Modelling and Prediction of Rigid Body RPC SSkkeettcchheess ffrroomm tthhee WWoorrkk ooff EEuurrooppeeaann PPrroojjeecctt AARRIISSTTOOTTEELL 22001100--22001133  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

this to the optical tau theory. Bifurcation theory will be applied to a BAT pilot-vehicle system in a roll step Selection Threshold PT Point Tracking PVS Pilot Vehicle System RC Rate Command ROVER Real-time Oscillation and Detection) was set up with the aim of understanding and improving the available tools used to unmask A

408

Obama Administration Announces Job-Creating Grid Modernization Pilot  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Job-Creating Grid Modernization Job-Creating Grid Modernization Pilot Projects Obama Administration Announces Job-Creating Grid Modernization Pilot Projects October 5, 2011 - 11:52am Addthis Washington, D.C. - Demonstrating its commitment to job creation and modernizing America's infrastructure, the Obama Administration today announced it would accelerate the permitting and construction of seven proposed electric transmission lines. This move will speed the creation of thousands of construction and operations jobs while transforming the nation's electric system into a modern, 21st century grid that is safer and more secure, and gives consumers more energy choices. "The President wants to get America working again. He is committed to cutting red tape and making immediate investments to put people to work

409

Monument Valley Phytoremediation Pilot Study:  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

1.8 1.8 U.S. Department of Energy UMTRA Ground Water Project Monument Valley Ground Water Remediation Work Plan: Native Plant Farming and Phytoremediation Pilot Study August 1998 Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy Albuquerque Operations Office Grand Junction Office Prepared by MACTEC Environmental Restoration Services, LLC Grand Junction, Colorado Project Number UGW-511-0015-10-000 Document Number U0029501 Work Performed under DOE Contract No. DE-AC13-96GJ87335 Note: Some of the section page numbers in the Table of Contents may not correspond to the page on which the section appears when viewing them in Adobe Acrobat. Document Number U0029501 Contents DOE/Grand Junction Office Monument Valley Ground Water Remediation Work Plan August 1998 Page v Contents Page Acronyms .

410

Better Plants Water Pilot- Overview  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Department of Energy (DOE) is expanding the Better Buildings Challenge to help partners demonstrate successful approaches to saving water and decrease their utility bills. The commercial and industrial sectors account for more than 25 percent of the withdrawals from public water supplies and many organizations in these sectors may have savings opportunities of 20 to 40%. The efficient use of water resources results in lower operating costs, a more reliable water supply, and improved water quality. Additionally, because energy is required to transport and treat water, saving water also saves energy. Through this pilot, DOE will work with a small, diverse group of Better Buildings Challenge Partners to expand their resource management strategies to include water in addition to energy, set water savings goals, track progress and showcase solutions.

411

BSCSP Basalt Pilot Phase II Factsheet 2009  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Basalt Sequestration Pilot Test 1 Basalt Sequestration Pilot Test 1 FACTSHEET FOR PARTNERSHIP FIELD VALIDATION TEST Partnership Name Big Sky Regional Carbon Partnership Contacts: DOE/NETL Project Mgr. Name Organization E-Mail William Aljoe NETL William.Aljoe@netl.doe.gov Principal Investigator Lee Spangler Field Test Information: Field Test Name Basalt Sequestration Pilot Test Test Location Near Wallula township in Eastern Washington State Amount and Source of CO 2 Tons Source 1000 Refinery Field Test Partners (Primary Sponsors) Boise White Paper L.L.C., Shell Exploration and Production Company, Port of Walla Walla,

412

Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

Not Available

1994-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Revised {open_quotes}LEPS{close_quotes} scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The most commonly used measures for verifying forecasts or simulations of continuous variables are root-mean-squared error (rmse) and anomaly correlation. Some disadvantages of these measures are demonstrated. Existing assessment systems for categorical forecasts are discussed briefly. An alternative unbiased verification measure is developed, known as the linear error in probability space (LEPS) score. The LEPS score may be used to assess forecasts of both continuous and categorical variables and has some advantages over rmse and anomaly correlation. The properties of the version of LEPS discussed here are reviewed and compared with an earlier form of LEPS. A skill-score version of LEPS may be used to obtain an overall measure of the skill of a number of forecasts. This skill score is biased, but the bias is negligible if the number of effectively independent forecasts or simulations is large. Some examples are given in which the LEPS skill score is compared with rmse and anomaly correlation. 14 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs.

Potts, J.M. [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom)] [IACR-Rothamsted, Hertfordshire (United Kingdom); Folland, C.K. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)] [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Jolliffe, I.T. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom)] [and others] [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom); and others

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

414

Oversight Reports - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Oversight Reports - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Oversight Reports - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Oversight Reports - Waste Isolation Pilot Plant April 22, 2013 Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2013 Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Work Planning and Control Activities November 28, 2012 Independent Oversight Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - November 2012 Review of Site Preparedness for Severe Natural Phenomena Events at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant September 28, 2011 Independent Activity Report, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - September 2011 Orientation Visit to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant [HIAR-WIPP-2011-09-07] October 2, 2002 Independent Oversight Inspection, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Summary Report - August 2002 Inspection of Environment, Safety, and Health and Emergency Management at

415

Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program  

Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

School Bus Pilot School Bus Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on Digg Find More places to share Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Pilot Program on AddThis.com... More in this section... Federal State Advanced Search All Laws & Incentives Sorted by Type School Bus Pilot Program The Vermont Department of Motor Vehicles will approve up to three participants for a pilot program to operate Type II school buses that are

416

Energy Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This presentation will address results from a pilot project with 10 chemical plants on energy management systems and the development of an energy efficiency plant certification program....

Ferland, K.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Artificial neural network based models for forecasting electricity generation of grid connected solar PV power plant  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) approach for forecasting the performance of electric energy generated output from a working 25-kWp grid connected solar PV system and a 100-kWp grid connected PV system installed at Minicoy Island of Union Territory of Lakshadweep Islands. The ANN interpolates among the solar PV generation output and relevant parameters such as solar radiation, module temperature and clearness index. In this study, three ANN models are implemented and validated with reasonable accuracy on real electric energy generation output data. The first model is univariate based on solar radiation and the output values. The second model is a multivariate model based on module temperature along with solar radiation. The third model is also a multivariate model based on module temperature, solar radiation and clearness index. A forecasting performance measure such as percentage root mean square error has been presented for each model. The second model, which gives the most accurate results, has been used in forecasting the generation output for another PV system with similar accuracy.

Imtiaz Ashraf; A. Chandra

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program (From Pilot to Permanent Program)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Provides an overview of the Cleveland EnergySaver Pilot Program aimed at reducing barriers to widespread adoption of residential energy efficient retrofits.

420

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

422

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

423

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

424

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

426

Journey to Leadership Certificate Program (Pilot)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Office of Learning and Workforce Development is pleased to announce a pilot training program for DOE entry-level professionals.  The program orientation is scheduled for June 4, 2014.For Entry...

427

PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF PILOT PERFORMANCE-BASED  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

...................................................................................................................................5 History of the Energy Commission's PBI Program and Its DevelopmentCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF PILOT PERFORMANCE-BASED INCENTIVE PROGRAM STAFFREPORT SEPTEMBER 2007 CEC-300-2007-011 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

428

Funding Opportunity Announcement: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-00000309 dealing with the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program.

429

ERCOT's Weather Sensitive Demand Response Pilot  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ERCOT’s Weather Sensitive Demand Response Pilot CATEE 12-17-13 ESL-KT-13-12-21 CATEE 2013: Clean Air Through Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16-18 Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been obtained from... Energy Efficiency Conference, San Antonio, Texas Dec. 16-18 Weather Sensitive Loads Pilot CATEE 121313 - Tim Carter 713-646-5476 tim.carter@constellation.com4 Constellation's Integrated Power Products © 2013. Constellation Energy Resources, LLC...

Carter, T.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBL-34045 UC-1600 Residential HVAC Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-uses include Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the HVAC module in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed

431

Microsoft Word - Indoor Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development 3767X_final  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Indoor, Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development (3767X) Indoor, Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development (3767X) Program or Field Office: Office of Science - ORNL Location(s) (City/County/State): Oak Ridge, Tennessee Proposed Action Description: The U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Site Office (DOE-OSO) proposes to conduct indoor, small- and pilot-scale research and development activities, laboratory operations, and associated transfer, lease, disposition or acquisition of interests in personal or real property involving advanced computing, advanced materials, biological and ecological systems, energy science, manufacturing, nanotechnology, national security, neutron sciences, chemical sciences, and nuclear physics including but not limited to developing, evaluating and testing: materials and their properties; systems; equipment; instrumentation; renewable energy systems; and

432

HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program Title HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program Publication Type Policy Brief Authors Zimring, Mark, Ian M. Hoffman, and Merrian C. Fuller Tertiary Authors Borgeson, Merrian Secondary Title Clean Energy Program Policy Brief Publisher LBNL Place Published Berkeley Year of Publication 2010 Pagination 6 Date Published 12/2010 Abstract The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently announced the creation of a pilot loan program for home energy improvements. The PowerSaver loan program is a new, energy-focused variant of the Title I Property Improvement Loan Insurance Program (Title I Program) and is planned for introduction in early 2011. The PowerSaver pilot will provide lender insurance for secured and unsecured loans up to $25,000 to single family homeowners. These loans will specifically target residential energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements. HUD estimates the two-year pilot will fund approximately 24,000 loans worth up to $300 million; the program is not capped. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), HUD"s mortgage insurance unit, will provide up to $25 million in grants as incentives to participating lenders. FHA is seeking lenders in communities with existing programs for promoting residential energy upgrades.

433

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODEL  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Load forecasting is a crucial aspect of electric power system planning and operation. This paper presents a heuristic approach for optimal parameter estimation of long term load forecast models. The problem is viewed as an optimization one in which the goal is to minimize the total estimation error by properly adjusting the model coefficients. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to minimize the error associated with the estimated model parameters. Real data of Egyptian network is used to perform this study. Results are reported and compared to those obtained using the well known least error squares estimation technique. Comparison results are in favor of the proposed approach which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

M. R. AlRashidi; K. M. EL?Naggar

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09T23:59:59.000Z

436

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

438

A Study on the Asymmetric Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) using the HWRF System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the results of a forecast from the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for Hurricane Earl (2010) are verified against observations and analyzed to understand the asymmetric rapid intensification of a ...

Hua Chen; Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan

439

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

440

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

443

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

444

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holt’s additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corberán-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermúdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

446

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

448

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

450

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

451

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

453

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

454

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

457

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

458

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Héctor Rodríguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Alternative Fuel Pilot Plant & Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Testing  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT Science Arizona Public Service Alternative Fuel Pilot Plant & Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Testing Alternative Fuel Pilot Plant The Arizona Public Service Alternative Fuel Pilot Plant is a model alternative fuel refueling system, dispensing hydrogen, compressed natural gas (CNG), and hydrogen/ CNG blends (HCNG). The plant is used daily to fuel vehicles operated in Arizona Public Service's fleet. Hydrogen Subsystem The plant's hydrogen system consists of production, compression, storage, and dispensing. The hydrogen produced is suitable for use in fuel cell-powered vehicles, for which the minimum hydrogen purity goal is 99.999%. Hydrogen is produced using an electrolysis process that separates water into hydrogen and oxygen. At present, the hydrogen is

462

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

463

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

464

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012 (ASER) is to provide information required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting. Specifically, the ASER presents summary environmental data to: Characterize site environmental management performance; Summarize environmental occurrences and responses reported during the calendar year; Confirm compliance with environmental standards and requirements; Highlight significant environmental accomplishments, including progress toward the DOE Environmental Sustainability Goals made through implementation of the WIPP Environmental Management System (EMS).

None

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Exempting Kansas City Pilot Project from Department of Energy Orders  

Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

In a January 18, 2011, memorandum, "Exempting Kansas City Pilot Project from Department of Energy Orders," Linton F. Brooks requested that the Kansas City Site Office develop a plan to dramatically shift oversight at the Kansas City Plant from the current approach to one that relies more heavily on: (1) the expertise of the contractor's parent organization; (2) a more functional management assurance system with real time management information provided by the contractor to the Site Office; and, (3) Federal operational awareness based on KCSO's Line Management Plan. Directives from which KCP would be exempted are DOE O 442.1A, DOE P 450.4, and the 470-series directives.

2011-01-18T23:59:59.000Z

467

Hydrologic studies for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this paper is to provide a general overview of hydrologic conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) by describing several key hydrologic studies that have been carried out as part of the site characterization program over the last 20 years. The paper is composed of three parts: background information about general objectives of the WIPP project; information about the geologic and hydrologic setting of the facility; and information about three aspects of the hydrologic system that are important to understanding the long-term performance of the WIPP facility. For additional detailed information, the reader is referred to the references cited in the text.

Davies, P.B.

1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

469

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Energy Management System Implementation ? Do and Check  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

in management systems * DOE pilots in Northwest, Midwest, and California * Online web tools for energy management system implementation Who are we? Dorothy Fisher Atwood WC...

471

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Carbon Capture Pilots (Kentucky) | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pilots (Kentucky) Pilots (Kentucky) No revision has been approved for this page. It is currently under review by our subject matter experts. Jump to: navigation, search Last modified on February 12, 2013. EZFeed Policy Place Kentucky Name Carbon Capture Pilots (Kentucky) Policy Category Other Policy Policy Type Industry Recruitment/Support Affected Technologies Coal with CCS Active Policy Yes Implementing Sector State/Province Primary Website http://energy.ky.gov/carbon/Pages/default.aspx Summary Support for the Carbon Management Research Group (CMRG), a public/private partnership consisting of most of the Commonwealth's utilities, the Electric Power Research Institute, the Center for Applied Energy Research (CAER), and the Department for Energy Development and Independence (DEDI),

473

Pilot Peak Geothermal Project | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pilot Peak Geothermal Project Pilot Peak Geothermal Project Jump to: navigation, search GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGeothermal Home Development Project: Pilot Peak Geothermal Project Project Location Information Coordinates 38.342266666667°, -118.10361111111° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":38.342266666667,"lon":-118.10361111111,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

474

BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation | Department  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation The Brattle Group was retained by Baltimore Gas & Electric Company (BGE) in December 2006 to assist in the design of a dynamic pricing pilot program to develop assessments of the likely impact of a variety of dynamic pricing programs on BGE residential customer load shapes. The residential pilot program, Smart Energy Pricing (SEP) Pilot, was subsequently approved by the Maryland Public Service Commission and successfully implemented in the summer of 2008. This report presents the results from the impact evaluation of the BGE's SEP Pilot in the summer of 2008. BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation More Documents & Publications

475

BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation | Department  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation The Brattle Group was retained by Baltimore Gas & Electric Company (BGE) in December 2006 to assist in the design of a dynamic pricing pilot program to develop assessments of the likely impact of a variety of dynamic pricing programs on BGE residential customer load shapes. The residential pilot program, Smart Energy Pricing (SEP) Pilot, was subsequently approved by the Maryland Public Service Commission and successfully implemented in the summer of 2008. This report presents the results from the impact evaluation of the BGE's SEP Pilot in the summer of 2008. BGE's Smart Energy Pricing Pilot Summer 2008 Impact Evaluation More Documents & Publications

476

The Invisible Dutch a Pilot Study Evaluating Dutch  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Invisible Dutch a Pilot Study Evaluating Dutch Migrants' Path to New Zealand from 1996 to 2006 in Christchurch, New Zealand and have been working on the research project The Invisible Dutch ­ a Pilot Study

Hickman, Mark

477

Underground Salt Haul Truck Fire at the Waste Isolation Pilot...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Underground Salt Haul Truck Fire at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant February 5, 2014 March 2014 Salt Haul Truck Fire at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Salt Haul Truck Fire at the...

478

Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program  

Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center [Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)]

School Bus Idle School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on Delicious Rank Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on Digg Find More places to share Alternative Fuels Data Center: School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program on AddThis.com... More in this section... Federal State Advanced Search All Laws & Incentives Sorted by Type School Bus Idle Reduction Pilot Program As part of the Children's Environmental Health Project, the Arizona

479

Pilot-scale treatability test plan for the 100-HR-3 operable unit  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document presents the treatability test plan for pilot-scale pump-and-treat testing at the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. The test will be conducted in fulfillment of interim Milestone M-15-06E to begin pilot-scale pump-and-treat operations by August 1994. The scope of the test was determined based on the results of lab/bench-scale tests (WHC 1993a) conducted in fulfillment of Milestone M-15-06B. These milestones were established per agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Washington State Department of Ecology and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and documented on Hanford Federal of Ecology Facility Agreement and Consent Order Change Control Form M-15-93-02. This test plan discusses a pilot-scale pump-and-treat test for the chromium plume associated with the D Reactor portion of the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. Data will be collected during the pilot test to assess the effectiveness, operating parameters, and resource needs of the ion exchange (IX) pump-and-treat system. The test will provide information to assess the ability to remove contaminants by extracting groundwater from wells and treating extracted groundwater using IX. Bench-scale tests were conducted previously in which chromium VI was identified as the primary contaminant of concern in the 100-D reactor plume. The DOWEX 21K{trademark} resin was recommended for pilot-scale testing of an IX pump-and-treat system. The bench-scale test demonstrated that the system could remove chromium VI from groundwater to concentrations less than 50 ppb. The test also identified process parameters to monitor during pilot-scale testing. Water will be re-injected into the plume using wells outside the zone of influence and upgradient of the extraction well.

Not Available

1994-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR HYDROPOWER PILOT PROJECT LICENSE  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

FOR HYDROPOWER PILOT PROJECT LICENSE Admiralty Inlet Pilot Tidal Project-FERC Project No. 12690-005 (DOE/EA-1949) Washington Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Office of Energy Projects Division of Hydropower Licensing 888 First Street, NE Washington, DC 20426 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401 January 15, 2013 20130115-3035 FERC PDF (Unofficial) 01/15/2013 i TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................... v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast system pilot" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Home Energy Score Post-Pilot Update Webinar (Text Version)  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Below is the text version of the webinar, Home Energy Score Post-Pilot Update, presented in September 2011.

482

Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program Community Awareness Pilot  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program Community Awareness Pilot #12;1 THE GOOD NEWS- Exposure solder, and brass faucets). A

483

Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant – December 2014  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Review of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Recovery Plan for Operating Diesel Equipment with Available Underground Airflows

484

10 MWe Solar Thermal Central Receiver Pilot Plant — Heliostat Evaluation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Sandia is responsible for evaluating the heliostats at the 10 MWe Solar Thermal Central Receiver Pilot Plant in Barstow, California...

C. L. Mavis; J. J. Bartel

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

EIS-0026: Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), Carlsbad, New Mexico  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management prepared this EIS for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.

486

Mastering the pilot domestic binary combined-cycle plants  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Results are presented from mastering the pilot binary combined-cycle plants of Type PGU-450T (installed at...

Yu. A. Radin

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

488

Microsoft Word - Outdoor Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development 3768X_final  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Outdoor, Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development (3768X) Outdoor, Small- and Pilot-Scale Research and Development (3768X) Program or Field Office: Office of Science - ORNL Location(s) (City/County/State): Oak Ridge, Tennessee Proposed Action Description: The U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Site Office (DOE-OSO) proposes to conduct outdoor, small- and pilot-scale research and development activities and associated transfer, lease, disposition or acquisition of interests in personal or real property involving advanced materials, biological and ecological systems, energy science, and national security including but not limited to collecting samples and analyzing ecosystem and atmospheric field data; developing, evaluating and testing equipment, materials and components; and

489

Watch For New PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program in Your Area | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Watch For New PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program in Your Area Watch For New PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program in Your Area Watch For New PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program in Your Area May 3, 2011 - 7:30am Addthis Eric Barendsen Energy Technology Program Specialist, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy For anybody who has heard about the many benefits of upgrading your home with an energy efficient water heater or furnace-or has wanted to make simple energy-saving home improvements such as insulating their attic, sealing their ducts, and installing better doors and windows-there may be a new financing option coming to a lender near you. As readers of this blog know, putting energy efficient products and installing renewable energy systems in your home can slash your monthly energy bills, but a hurdle that some would-be energy savers run up against

490

Treatment of septage in sludge drying reed beds: a case study on pilot-scale beds  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Treatment of septage in sludge drying reed beds: a case study on pilot-scale beds S. Troesch***, A systems by local authorities. This will result in a large increase of the quantity of sludge from septic to treat this sludge because they may have reached their nominal load or they are not so numerous in rural

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

491

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

492

High Temperature Calcination - MACT Upgrade Equipment Pilot Plant Test  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

About one million gallons of acidic, hazardous, and radioactive sodium-bearing waste are stored in stainless steel tanks at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), which is a major operating facility of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Calcination at high-temperature conditions (600 C, with alumina nitrate and calcium nitrate chemical addition to the feed) is one of four options currently being considered by the Department of Energy for treatment of the remaining tank wastes. If calcination is selected for future processing of the sodium-bearing waste, it will be necessary to install new off-gas control equipment in the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) to comply with the Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards for hazardous waste combustors and incinerators. This will require, as a minimum, installing a carbon bed to reduce mercury emissions from their current level of up to 7,500 to <45 {micro}g/dscm, and a staged combustor to reduce unburned kerosene fuel in the off-gas discharge to <100 ppm CO and <10 ppm hydrocarbons. The staged combustor will also reduce NOx concentrations of about 35,000 ppm by 90-95%. A pilot-plant calcination test was completed in a newly constructed 15-cm diameter calciner vessel. The pilot-plant facility was equipped with a prototype MACT off-gas control system, including a highly efficient cyclone separator and off-gas quench/venturi scrubber for particulate removal, a staged combustor for unburned hydrocarbon and NOx destruction, and a packed activated carbon bed for mercury removal and residual chloride capture. Pilot-plant testing was performed during a 50-hour system operability test January 14-16, followed by a 100-hour high-temperature calcination pilot-plant calcination run January 19-23. Two flowsheet blends were tested: a 50-hour test with an aluminum-to-alkali metal molar ratio (AAR) of 2.25, and a 50-hour test with an AAR of 1.75. Results of the testing indicate that sodium-bearing waste can be successfully calcined at 600 C with an AAR of 1.75. Unburned hydrocarbons are reduced to less than 10 ppm (7% O2, dry basis), with >90% reduction of NOx emissions. Mercury removal by the carbon bed reached 99.99%, surpassing the control efficiency needed to meet MACT emissions standards. No deleterious impacts on the carbon bed were observed during the tests. The test results imply that upgrading the NWCF calciner with a more efficient cyclone separator and the proposed MACT equipment can process the remaining tanks wastes in 3 years or less, and comply with the MACT standards.

Richard D. Boardman; B. H. O'Brien; N. R. Soelberg; S. O. Bates; R. A. Wood; C. St. Michel

2004-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

Templeton, K.J.

1996-05-23T23:59:59.000Z

496

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

New Summer Pilot Course 2013 Biodiversity Informatics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to advanced under- graduates and graduate students interested in biodiversity, conservation biology, dataNew Summer Pilot Course ­ 2013 Biodiversity Informatics (BIO 494 / BIO 598 ­ 2 Credits) June 17 Franz, David Patterson, Ed Gilbert Contact nico.franz@asu.edu for additional information Biodiversity

Franz, Nico M.

498

A Pilot Plant: The Fastest Path to  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Key Science Needs for a Technically Sound MFE Pilot Plant Design Integrated Plasma Material Interface Plant Design? (2) Integrated Plasma-Materials Interface · High heat and particle flux and fluence · What seconds in 2028. The MFE Program Needs to Move Faster Implications Building a Component Test Facility

499

Argonne National Laboratory's Recycling Pilot Plant  

ScienceCinema (OSTI)

Argonne has a Recycling Pilot Plant designed to save the non-metal portions of junked cars. Here, program managers demonstrate how plastic shredder residue can be recycled. (Currently these automotive leftovers are sent to landfills.) For more information, visit Argonne's Transportation Technology R&D Center Web site at http://www.transportation.anl.gov.

Spangenberger, Jeff; Jody, Sam;

2013-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

500

46th Street Pilot Street Lighting Project  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

46th Street Pilot Street Lighting Project A Joint Venture: Hennepin County & City of Minneapolis Street to 48th Street) as standard high-pressure sodium (HPS) lighting comparison corridor #12;The over time #12;Initial Lighting Comparison #12;Lighting Project Location #12;Street Light Layout 30

Minnesota, University of