National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast system pilot

  1. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  2. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  5. FORECASTERS' FORUM Mountain Wave Signatures in MODIS 6.7-m Imagery and Their Relation to Pilot

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    FORECASTERS' FORUM Mountain Wave Signatures in MODIS 6.7- m Imagery and Their Relation to Pilot June 2006, in final form 29 September 2006) ABSTRACT A technique for nowcasting turbulent mountain. Analysis of MODIS water vapor imagery indicated that mountain wave signatures were present

  6. Steam System Forecasting and Management 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01

    Union Carbide's Taft Plant is a typical petrochemical complex with several processes that use and produce various fuel and steam resources. The plant steam and fuel system balances vary extensively since several process units 'block operate...

  7. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  8. The ATIS Spoken Language Systems Pilot Corpus

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with which to test research hypotheses. We de- scribe the Air Travel Information System (ATIS) pilot corpus and an exit questionnaire. Two "wizards" carry out the simulation: one tran- scribes the query while the other

  9. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  10. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  11. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  12. Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands

  13. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  14. Mitigation of Sounding Pilot Contamination in Massive MIMO Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bahk, Saewoong

    Mitigation of Sounding Pilot Contamination in Massive MIMO Systems Taeseop Lee, Hyung-Sin Kim contamination of cell edge users or a lowered number of serviced users in a multi-cell scenario. In this paper the quality of service (QoS) of mobile users by mitigating the pilot contamination as well as minimize

  15. MFR PAPER 1177 Pilot SST mapping flights

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and oceanographic inputs, a daily forecast was produced to predict the loca- tion of environmental factors favorable- sive understanding of the offshore circu- lation pattern and the effect of the rapidly changing wind and the forecast dis- tribution system. To determine its economic value the pilot program also provided

  16. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    in a wide range of energy systems, including forecasting demand, renewable generation, and electricityLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random demonstrated that in the context of electrical demand and wind power, probabilistic forecasts can offer

  17. Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Andrejczuk, M; Juricke, S; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A; Zanna, L

    2015-01-01

    We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.

  18. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  19. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01

    Farland (Member) J esTR ao (Head of Department) May 1991 ABSTRACT Streamflow Forecasting for Large-Scale Hydrologic Systems. (May 1991) Haitham Munir Awwad, B. S. , University of Jordan Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Juan B. Valdes An on-line streamflow... thankful to Dr. Ralph A. Wurbs and Dr. Marshall J. McFarland for their assistance on my advisory committee. Support for this thesis by the Department of Civil Engineering through the Engineering Excellence Fund, and by the U, S. Army Corps of Engineers...

  20. Traffic congestion forecasting model for the INFORM System. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Azarm, A.; Mughabghab, S.; Stock, D.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a computerized traffic forecasting model, developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for a portion of the Long Island INFORM Traffic Corridor. The model has gone through a testing phase, and currently is able to make accurate traffic predictions up to one hour forward in time. The model will eventually take on-line traffic data from the INFORM system roadway sensors and make projections as to future traffic patterns, thus allowing operators at the New York State Department of Transportation (D.O.T.) INFORM Traffic Management Center to more optimally manage traffic. It can also form the basis of a travel information system. The BNL computer model developed for this project is called ATOP for Advanced Traffic Occupancy Prediction. The various modules of the ATOP computer code are currently written in Fortran and run on PC computers (pentium machine) faster than real time for the section of the INFORM corridor under study. The following summarizes the various routines currently contained in the ATOP code: Statistical forecasting of traffic flow and occupancy using historical data for similar days and time (long term knowledge), and the recent information from the past hour (short term knowledge). Estimation of the empirical relationships between traffic flow and occupancy using long and short term information. Mechanistic interpolation using macroscopic traffic models and based on the traffic flow and occupancy forecasted (item-1), and the empirical relationships (item-2) for the specific highway configuration at the time of simulation (construction, lane closure, etc.). Statistical routine for detection and classification of anomalies and their impact on the highway capacity which are fed back to previous items.

  1. Changes in Pilot Control Behaviour across Stewart Platform Motion Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Changes in Pilot Control Behaviour across Stewart Platform Motion Systems F. M. Nieuwenhuizen1,2, H system bandwidth has a significant effect on performance and control behaviour. Participants barely use of Korea Low-cost motion systems have been proposed for certain training tasks that would otherwise

  2. Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seasonal Sensitivity on COBEL-ISBA Local Forecast System for Fog and Low Clouds STEVIE ROQUELAURE of uncertainty that lead to dispersion. Key words: Local numerical forecast system, fog and low clouds, seasonal prediction system. 1. Introduction Accurate prediction of fog and low clouds is one of the main issues

  3. A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios

    A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) A Papaioannou1 Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed

  4. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore »larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  5. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  6. Experiments and a model of pilot system failure detection during simulated Lunar landing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaderka, Justin David

    2014-01-01

    Future complex systems, such as those found in piloted aircraft and spacecraft, will undoubtedly utilize significant automation to enhance pilot capabilities and enable novel mission scenarios. Off-nominal conditions may ...

  7. Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud Sadjadi, Shu-Ching Chen

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Towards a Self-Configurable Weather Research and Forecasting System Khalid Saleem, S. Masoud, Miami FL {ksale002, sadjadi,chens}@cs.fiu.edu ABSTRACT Current weather forecast and visualization systems lack the scalability to support numerous customized requests for weather research and forecasting

  8. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  9. On-line economic optimization of energy systems using weather forecast information.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-01-01

    We establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit weather forecast information in the operation of energy systems. We argue that anticipating the weather conditions can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The framework is based on the solution of a stochastic dynamic real-time optimization (D-RTO) problem incorporating forecasts generated from a state-of-the-art weather prediction model. The necessary uncertainty information is extracted from the weather model using an ensemble approach. The accuracy of the forecast trends and uncertainty bounds are validated using real meteorological data. We present a numerical simulation study in a building system to demonstrate the developments.

  10. Development of Load Forecasting Procedures for the Texas A&M University System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baltazar-Cervantes, J. C.; Lim, C.; Haberl, J. S.; Turnder, W. D.; Claridge, D. E.

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on the effort to develop load-forecasting procedures for the Texas A&M University System (TAMUS). Such procedures are being investigated to determine if the TAMUS can benefit from the pending deregulation ...

  11. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    , Energy Meteorology Group, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany, elke.lorenz@uni-oldenburg.de + UniversityQUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Schneider° * University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory

  12. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  13. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important Input into Building..., Martin Fradette Environment Canada RPN ? Recherche en Pr?vision num?rique Dr. Wei Yu, Dr. Paul Vaillancourt, Dr. Sylvie Leroyer Natural Resources Canada ? Canmet Energy Dr. Jos? A. Candanedo Overview ? Building management and weather information...

  14. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) EGU

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    2003-01-01

    Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting 799 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 799811 (2003) © EGU Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  16. Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Howat, Ian M.

    Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. MANNING AND JORDAN G. POWERS Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center.S. Antarctic Program's field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc

  17. An Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collins, Gary S.

    are important for predicting pollutants regulated by National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). NAAQS pollutants, include CO, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, O3, and SO2, are considered deleterious to public health and airAn Investigation of the Limitations in Plume Rise Models used in Air Quality Forecast Systems 1

  18. ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION TO SANTIAGO DE CHILE)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertossi, Leopoldo

    Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental InformationENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source

  19. Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boss, Emmanuel S.

    Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes

  20. Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Satterfield, Elizabeth A.

    2011-10-21

    frequency. We find that turning the digital filter on in these two sets of experiments leads to a major improvement of the analyses. In the experiments with randomly placed observations, turning the digital fil- ter on degrades the analysis in the Tropics... are carried out with an implementation of the Local En- semble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system on a reduced (T62L28) resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). Both...

  1. Low-level waste vitrification pilot-scale system need report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrissey, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.

    1996-03-01

    This report examines the need for pilot-scale testing in support of the low-level vitrification facility at Hanford. In addition, the report examines the availability of on-site facilities to contain a pilot-plant. It is recommended that a non-radioactive pilot-plant be operated for extended periods. In addition, it is recommended that two small-scale systems, one processing radioactive waste feed and one processing a simulated waste feed be used for validation of waste simulants. The actual scale of the pilot-plant will be determined from the technologies included in conceptual design of the plant. However, for the purposes of this review, a plant of 5 to 10 metric ton/day of glass production was assumed. It is recommended that a detailed data needs package and integrated flowsheet be developed in FY95 to clearly identify data requirements and identify relationships with other TWRS elements. A pilot-plant will contribute to the reduction of uncertainty in the design and initial operation of the vitrification facility to an acceptable level. Prior to pilot-scale testing, the components will not have been operated as an integrated system and will not have been tested for extended operating periods. Testing for extended periods at pilot-scale will allow verification of the flowsheet including the effects of recycle streams. In addition, extended testing will allow evaluation of wear, corrosion and mechanical reality of individual components, potential accumulations within the components, and the sensitivity of the process to operating conditions. Also, the pilot facility will provide evidence that the facility will meet radioactive and nonradioactive environmental release limits, and increase the confidence in scale-up. The pilot-scale testing data and resulting improvements in the vitrification facility design will reduce the time required for cold chemical testing in the vitrification facility.

  2. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  3. DOE/NREL Inner Mongolia PV/Wind Hybrid Systems Pilot Project: A Post-Installation Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stroup, K. K.

    2005-02-01

    This report assesses the Inner Mongolia Pilot Project, which disseminates wind-solar hybrid systems to a rural and remote population.

  4. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-05-01

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time period January 1, 2003 through March 31, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the sixth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the pilot unit with three catalysts, conducting catalyst activity measurements, and procuring the fourth catalyst, all for the GRE Coal Creek pilot unit site. Laboratory efforts were also conducted to support catalyst selection for the second pilot unit site, at CPS' Spruce Plant. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  5. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-07-01

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time-period April 1, 2003 through June 30, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the seventh full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the first pilot unit, conducting catalyst activity measurements, installing sonic horns for on-line catalyst cleaning, and installing the fourth catalyst, all for the GRE Coal Creek site. CPS began installation of the second mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit at their Spruce Plant during the quarter. Laboratory efforts were conducted to support catalyst selection for that second pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  6. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project Daniel Mandl1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grossman, Robert

    The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project Daniel Mandl1 , Stuart Frye2 , Robert and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster system which was prototyped during the past few years during the flood seasons which occurred

  7. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  8. Resource Allocation Support System (RASS): Summary report of the 1992 pilot study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buehring, W.A.; Whitfield, R.G.; Wolsko, T.D.; Kier, P.H.; Absil, M.J.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Sapinski, P.F.

    1993-02-01

    The Resource Allocation Support System (RASS) is a decision-aiding system being developed to assist the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Waste Management in program and budget decision making. Four pilot studies were conducted at DOE field offices in summer 1992 to evaluate and improve the RASS design. This report summarizes the combined results of the individual field office pilot studies. Results are presented from different perspectives to illustrate the type of information that would be available from RASS. Lessons learned and directions for future RASS developments are also presented.

  9. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  10. Data-driven spectral decomposition and forecasting of ergodic dynamical systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2015-01-01

    We develop a framework for dimension reduction, mode decomposition, and nonparametric forecasting of data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. This framework is based on a representation of the Koopman group of unitary operators in a smooth orthonormal basis of the L2 space of the dynamical system, acquired from time-ordered data through the diffusion maps algorithm. Using this representation, we compute Koopman eigenfunctions through a regularized advection-diffusion operator, and employ these eigenfunctions in dimension reduction maps with projectible dynamics and high smoothness for the given observation modality. In systems with pure point spectra, we construct a decomposition of the generator of the Koopman group into mutually commuting vector fields, which we reconstruct in data space through a representation of the pushforward map in the Koopman eigenfunction basis. We also use a special property of this basis, namely that the basis elements evolve as simple harmonic oscillators, to build nonparamet...

  11. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-10-04

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period July 1, 2002 through September 30, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The coprecipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the fourth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to completing, installing and starting up the pilot unit, completing laboratory runs to size catalysts, and procuring catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  12. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-07-17

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period April 1, 2002 through June 30, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the third full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to constructing the pilot unit and conducting laboratory runs to help size catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these two efforts.

  13. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-01-21

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period October 1, 2002 through December 31, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future fullscale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the fifth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included starting up the pilot unit with three catalysts at the first site, conducting catalyst activity measurements, completing comprehensive flue gas sampling and analyses, and procuring additional catalysts for the pilot unit. This technical progress report provides an update on these efforts.

  14. FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    of Physics, Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Energy Meteorology Group, 26111 Oldenburg, GermanyH, Spicherer Straße 48, D-86157 Augsburg, Germany ABSTRACT: The contribution of power production by PV systemsFORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann

  15. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2006-03-31

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems'', during the time-period January 1 through March 31, 2006. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, and the use of a wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system downstream to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project is being co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory, EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Generation Company LP, the Southern Company, and Duke Energy. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified catalyst materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months or longer at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests are being conducted periodically at each site to confirm the ability to scrub the catalytically oxidized mercury at high efficiency. This is the ninth reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts primarily consisted of operating the catalyst pilot units at the TXU Generation Company LP's Monticello Steam Electric Station and at Georgia Power's Plant Yates. Two catalyst activity measurement trips were made to Plant Yates during the quarter. This Technical Progress Report presents catalyst activity results from the oxidation catalyst pilot unit at Plant Yates and discusses the status of the pilot unit at Monticello.

  16. Hydraulically actuated fuel injector including a pilot operated spool valve assembly and hydraulic system using same

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Shafer, Scott F. (Morton, IL)

    2002-01-01

    The present invention relates to hydraulic systems including hydraulically actuated fuel injectors that have a pilot operated spool valve assembly. One class of hydraulically actuated fuel injectors includes a solenoid driven pilot valve that controls the initiation of the injection event. However, during cold start conditions, hydraulic fluid, typically engine lubricating oil, is particularly viscous and is often difficult to displace through the relatively small drain path that is defined past the pilot valve member. Because the spool valve typically responds slower than expected during cold start due to the difficulty in displacing the relatively viscous oil, accurate start of injection timing can be difficult to achieve. There also exists a greater difficulty in reaching the higher end of the cold operating speed range. Therefore, the present invention utilizes a fluid evacuation valve to aid in displacement of the relatively viscous oil during cold start conditions.

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  18. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary Blythe; Conor Braman; Katherine Dombrowski; Tom Machalek

    2010-12-31

    This document is the final technical report for Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT41992, 'Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,' which was conducted over the time-period January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2010. The objective of this project has been to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid catalysts and/or fixed-structure mercury sorbents to promote the removal of total mercury and oxidation of elemental mercury in flue gas from coal combustion, followed by wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) to remove the oxidized mercury at high efficiency. The project was co-funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL), EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), TXU Energy (now called Luminant), Southern Company, Salt River Project (SRP) and Duke Energy. URS Group was the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses fixed-structure sorbents and/or catalysts to promote the removal of total mercury and/or oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone FGD systems. Oxidized mercury not adsorbed is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and leaves with the byproducts from the FGD system. The project has tested candidate materials at pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. Pilot-scale catalytic oxidation tests have been completed for periods of approximately 14 to19 months at three sites, with an additional round of pilot-scale fixed-structure sorbent tests being conducted at one of those sites. Additionally, pilot-scale wet FGD tests have been conducted downstream of mercury oxidation catalysts at a total of four sites. The sites include the two of three sites from this project and two sites where catalytic oxidation pilot testing was conducted as part of a previous DOE-NETL project. Pilot-scale wet FGD tests were also conducted at a fifth site, but with no catalyst or fixed-structure mercury sorbent upstream. This final report presents and discusses detailed results from all of these efforts, and makes a number of conclusions about what was learned through these efforts.

  19. Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud Forecasts at Airports

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Contributions from a Local Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) for Improving Fog and Low Cloud authorities with accurate forecasts of fog and cloud ceiling. A specific event, which is called a low with the prediction of infrequent events like fog and the life cycles of low clouds. At Paris' Charles de Gaulle (Cd

  20. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2003-10-01

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems,'' during the time-period July 1, 2003 through September 30, 2003. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project cofunders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury control process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates with the byproducts from the FGD system. The current project is testing previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for approximately 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the eighth full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, project efforts included continued operation of the first pilot unit at the GRE Coal Creek site with all four catalysts in service and sonic horns installed for on-line catalyst cleaning. During the quarter, a catalyst activity measurement trip and mercury SCEM relative accuracy tests were completed, and catalyst pressure drop was closely monitored with the sonic horns in operation. CPS completed the installation of the second mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit at their Spruce Plant during the quarter, and the four catalysts to be tested in that unit were ordered. The pilot unit was started up with two of the four catalysts in service late in August, and initial catalyst activity results were measured in late September. The other two catalysts will not become available for testing until sometime in October. This technical progress report details these efforts at both sites.

  1. Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xie, Jinxing

    in manufacturing planning and control. The quality of the master production schedule (MPS) can significantly managers optimize their production plans by selecting more reasonable forecasting methods and scheduling forecasting, order entry and production planning activities on the one hand, and the detailed planning

  2. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  3. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-04-26

    This document summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185, Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems, during the time period January 1, 2002 through March 31, 2002. The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the second full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to pilot unit design and conducting laboratory runs to help select candidate catalysts. This technical progress report provides an update on these two efforts. A Test Plan for the upcoming pilot-scale evaluations was also prepared and submitted to NETL for review and comment. Since this document was already submitted under separate cover, this information is not repeated here.

  4. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  5. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1991-09-01

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.

  8. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  9. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  10. EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional

  11. PILOT TESTING OF MERCURY OXIDATION CATALYSTS FOR UPSTREAM OF WET FGD SYSTEMS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2002-02-22

    The objective of this project is to demonstrate at pilot scale the use of solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. The project is being funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. EPRI, Great River Energy (GRE), and City Public Service (CPS) of San Antonio are project co-funders. URS Group is the prime contractor. The mercury catalytic oxidation process under development uses catalyst materials applied to honeycomb substrates to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that have wet lime or limestone flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Oxidized mercury is removed in the wet FGD absorbers and co-precipitates in a stable form with the byproducts from the FGD system. The co-precipitated mercury does not appear to adversely affect the disposal or reuse properties of the FGD byproduct. The current project will test previously identified, effective catalyst materials at a larger, pilot scale and in a commercial form, so as to provide engineering data for future full-scale designs. The pilot-scale tests will continue for up to 14 months at each of two sites to provide longer-term catalyst life data. This is the first full reporting period for the subject Cooperative Agreement. During this period, most of the project efforts were related to project initiation and planning. There is no significant technical progress to report for the current period.

  12. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  13. Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping

    2009-12-01

    To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.

  14. Tracking tropical cloud systems for the diagnosis of simulations by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E. P.; Jensen, M. P.; Zhang, M. H.; Boer, E.

    2010-06-27

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the tropical warm pool. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, J. Geophys. Res., 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest that the organization of the mesoscale convective systems is particularly sensitive to the cloud microphysics parameterization used.

  15. Tracking tropical cloud systems - Observations for the diagnosis of simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vogelmann, A.M.; Lin, W.; Cialella, A.; Luke, E.; Jensen, M.; Zhang, M.

    2010-03-15

    To aid in improving model parameterizations of clouds and convection, we examine the capability of models, using explicit convection, to simulate the life cycle of tropical cloud systems in the vicinity of the ARM Tropical Western Pacific sites. The cloud life cycle is determined using a satellite cloud tracking algorithm (Boer and Ramanathan, 1997), and the statistics are compared to those of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Using New York Blue, a Blue Gene/L supercomputer that is co-operated by Brookhaven and Stony Brook, simulations are run at a resolution comparable to the observations. Initial results suggest a computational paradox where, even though the size of the simulated systems are about half of that observed, their longevities are still similar. The explanation for this seeming incongruity will be explored.

  16. Published in proceedings of the 15 th IMACS'97 World Congress, August 1997, Berlin, Germany, Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather Forecast Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Engelen, Robert A.

    , Wissenshaft & Technik Verlag, Vol. 4, pp. 571--576. The CTADEL Application Driver for Numerical Weather@cs.leidenuniv.nl Keywords: code generation; high performance computing; numerical weather forecasting ABSTRACT The CTADEL numerical weather forecast system. As such, the CTADEL system can be viewed as a problem­solving environment

  17. MBM fuel feeding system design and evaluation for FBG pilot plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Campbell, William A.; Fonstad, Terry; Pugsley, Todd; Gerspacher, Regan

    2012-06-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A 1-5 g/s fuel feeding system for pilot scale FBG was designed, built and tested. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Multiple conveying stages improve pressure balancing, flow control and stability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Secondary conveyor stage reduced output irregularity from 47% to 15%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic air sparging effective in dealing with poor flow ability of MBM powder. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic injection port plugs with char at gasification temperature of 850 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: A biomass fuel feeding system has been designed, constructed and evaluated for a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) pilot plant at the University of Saskatchewan (Saskatoon, SK, Canada). The system was designed for meat and bone meal (MBM) to be injected into the gasifier at a mass flow-rate range of 1-5 g/s. The designed system consists of two stages of screw conveyors, including a metering stage which controlled the flow-rate of fuel, a rotary airlock and an injection conveyor stage, which delivered that fuel at a consistent rate to the FBG. The rotary airlock which was placed between these conveyors, proved unable to maintain a pressure seal, thus the entire conveying system was sealed and pressurized. A pneumatic injection nozzle was also fabricated, tested and fitted to the end of the injection conveyor for direct injection and dispersal into the fluidized bed. The 150 mm metering screw conveyor was shown to effectively control the mass output rate of the system, across a fuel output range of 1-25 g/s, while the addition of the 50 mm injection screw conveyor reduced the irregularity (error) of the system output rate from 47% to 15%. Although material plugging was found to be an issue in the inlet hopper to the injection conveyor, the addition of air sparging ports and a system to pulse air into those ports was found to successfully eliminate this issue. The addition of the pneumatic injection nozzle reduced the output irregularity further to 13%, with an air supply of 50 slpm as the minimum air supply to drive this injector. After commissioning of this final system to the FBG reactor, the injection nozzle was found to plug with char however, and was subsequently removed from the system. Final operation of the reactor continues satisfactorily with the two screw conveyors operating at matching pressure with the fluidized bed, with the output rate of the system estimated based on system characteristic equations, and confirmed by static weight measurements made before and after testing. The error rate by this method is reported to be approximately 10%, which is slightly better than the estimated error rate of 15% for the conveyor system. The reliability of this measurement prediction method relies upon the relative consistency of the physical properties of MBM with respect to its bulk density and feeding characteristics.

  18. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  19. Probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)]|[Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Hoover Institution

    1998-01-01

    In its most recent report on the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the annual failure rate is calculated to be 1.3E({minus}7)(1/yr), rounded off from 1.32E({minus}7). A calculation by the Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) produces a result that is about 4% higher, namely 1.37E({minus}7)(1/yr). The difference is due to a minor error in the US Department of Energy (DOE) calculations in the Westinghouse 1996 report. WIPP`s hoist safety relies on a braking system consisting of a number of components including two crucial valves. The failure rate of the system needs to be recalculated periodically to accommodate new information on component failure, changes in maintenance and inspection schedules, occasional incidents such as a hoist traveling out-of-control, either up or down, and changes in the design of the brake system. This report examines DOE`s last two reports on the redesigned waste hoist system. In its calculations, the DOE has accepted one EEG recommendation and is using more current information about the component failures rates, the Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD). However, the DOE calculations fail to include the data uncertainties which are described in detail in the NPRD reports. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission recommended that a system evaluation include mean estimates of component failure rates and take into account the potential uncertainties that exist so that an estimate can be made on the confidence level to be ascribed to the quantitative results. EEG has made this suggestion previously and the DOE has indicated why it does not accept the NRC recommendation. Hence, this EEG report illustrates the importance of including data uncertainty using a simple statistical example.

  20. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM-PHASE I

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ted Bestor

    2003-03-04

    This report documents the first year's effort towards a 3-year program to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. In essence, all Phase I goals and objectives were met. We intend to proceed with the Phase II research plan, as set forth by the applicable Research Management Plan. The objective for Phase I was to demonstrate the feasibility of micropilot ignition for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase I were to develop a single-cylinder test chamber to study the injection of pilot fuel into a combustion cylinder and to develop, install and test a multi-cylinder micropilot ignition system for a 4-cylinder, natural gas test engine. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support these two (2) primarily elements in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. Research activities for Micropilot Phase I were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are expected to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. An extensive state-of-art review was conducted to leverage the existing body of knowledge of micropilot ignition with respect to retrofit applications. Additionally, commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The four-cylinder prototype data was encouraging for the micro-pilot ignition technology when compared to spark ignition. Initial testing results showed: (1) Brake specific fuel consumption of natural gas was improved from standard spark ignition across the map, 1% at full load and 5% at 70% load. (2) 0% misfires for all points on micropilot ignition. Fuel savings were most likely due to this percent misfire improvement. (3) THC (Total Hydrocarbon) emissions were improved significantly at light load, 38% at 70% load. (4) VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions were improved above 80% load. (5) Coefficient of Variance for the IMEP (Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) was significantly less at lower loads, 76% less at 70%. These preliminary results will be substantiated and enhanced during Phase II of the Micropilot Ignition program.

  1. Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard Rhudy

    2006-06-30

    This final report presents and discusses results from a mercury control process development project entitled ''Pilot Testing of Mercury Oxidation Catalysts for Upstream of Wet FGD Systems''. The objective of this project was to demonstrate at pilot scale a mercury control technology that uses solid honeycomb catalysts to promote the oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas from coal combustion. Oxidized mercury is removed in downstream wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) absorbers and leaves with the FGD byproducts. The goal of the project was to achieve 90% oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas and 90% overall mercury capture with the downstream wet FGD system. The project was co-funded by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-01NT41185. Great River Energy (GRE) and City Public Service (now CPS Energy) of San Antonio were also project co-funders and provided host sites. URS Group, Inc. was the prime contractor. Longer-term pilot-scale tests were conducted at two sites to provide catalyst life data. GRE provided the first site, at their Coal Creek Station (CCS), which fires North Dakota lignite, and CPS Energy provided the second site, at their Spruce Plant, which fires Powder River Basin (PRB) coal. Mercury oxidation catalyst testing began at CCS in October 2002 and continued through the end of June 2004, representing nearly 21 months of catalyst operation. An important finding was that, even though the mercury oxidation catalyst pilot unit was installed downstream of a high-efficiency ESP, fly ash buildup began to plug flue gas flow through the horizontal catalyst cells. Sonic horns were installed in each catalyst compartment and appeared to limit fly ash buildup. A palladium-based catalyst showed initial elemental mercury oxidation percentages of 95% across the catalyst, declining to 67% after 21 months in service. A carbon-based catalyst began with almost 98% elemental mercury oxidation across the catalyst, but declined to 79% oxidation after nearly 13 months in service. The other two catalysts, an SCR-type catalyst (titanium/vanadium) and an experimental fly-ash-based catalyst, were significantly less active. The palladium-based and SCR-type catalysts were effectively regenerated at the end of the long-term test by flowing heated air through the catalyst overnight. The carbon-based catalyst was not observed to regenerate, and no regeneration tests were conducted on the fourth, fly-ash-based catalyst. Preliminary process economics were developed for the palladium and carbon-based catalysts for a scrubbed, North Dakota lignite application. As described above, the pilot-scale results showed the catalysts could not sustain 90% or greater oxidation of elemental mercury in the flue gas for a period of two years. Consequently, the economics were based on performance criteria in a later DOE NETL solicitation, which required candidate mercury control technologies to achieve at least a 55% increase in mercury capture for plants that fire lignite. These economics show that if the catalysts must be replaced every two years, the catalytic oxidation process can be 30 to 40% less costly than conventional (not chemically treated) activated carbon injection if the plant currently sells their fly ash and would lose those sales with carbon injection. If the plant does not sell their fly ash, activated carbon injection was estimated to be slightly less costly. There was little difference in the estimated cost for palladium versus the carbon-based catalysts. If the palladium-based catalyst can be regenerated to double its life to four years, catalytic oxidation process economics are greatly improved. With regeneration, the catalytic oxidation process shows over a 50% reduction in mercury control cost compared to conventional activated carbon injection for a case where the plant sells its fly ash. At Spruce Plant, mercury oxidation catalyst testing began in September 2003 and continued through the end of April 2005, interrupted only by a

  2. Portland General Electric Co. Pilot Evaluation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    DIRECT LOAD CONTROL PILOT FOR ELECTRIC SPACE HEAT #12;Direct Load Control Pilot for Electric Space Heat) an evaluation report of its direct load control pilot for electric space heat, called "Direct Load control Pilot capability to support the utility's control of residential customers' central electric space heating systems

  3. IMPROVEMENT TO PIPELINE COMPRESSOR ENGINE RELIABILITY THROUGH RETROFIT MICRO-PILOT IGNITION SYSTEM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ted Bestor

    2004-06-01

    This report documents the second year's effort towards a 3-year program to develop micropilot ignition systems for existing pipeline compressor engines. In essence, all Phase II goals and objectives were met. We intend to proceed with the Phase III research plan, as set forth by the applicable Research Management Plan. The objective for Phase II was to further develop and optimize the micropilot ignition system for large bore, slow speed engines operating at low compression ratios. The primary elements of Micropilot Phase II were to evaluate the results for the 4-cylinder system prototype developed for Phase I, then optimize this system to demonstrate the technology's readiness for the field demonstration phase. In all, there were twelve (12) tasks defined and executed to support objectives in a stepwise fashion. Task-specific approaches and results are documented in this report. Research activities for Micropilot Phase II were conducted with the understanding that the efforts are expected to result in a commercial product to capture and disseminate the efficiency and environmental benefits of this new technology. Commercially-available fuel injection products were identified and applied to the program where appropriate. Modifications to existing engine components were kept to a minimum. This approach will minimize the overall time-to-market requirements, while meeting performance and cost criteria. The optimized four-cylinder system data demonstrated significant progress compared to Phase I results, as well as traditional spark ignition systems. An extensive testing program at the EECL using the GMV-4 test engine demonstrated that: (1) In general, the engine operated more stable fewer misfires and partial combustion events when using the 3-hole injectors compared to the 5-hole injectors used in Phase I. (2) The engine had, in general, a wider range of operation with the 3-hole injectors. Minimum operational boost levels were approximately 5''Hg lower and the minimum pilot quantity that the engine would operate on was roughly cut in half. (3) A successful concept demonstration of engine lube oil pilot injection was performed where the minimum operational boost was reduced by another 5''Hg to a boost level of 3''Hg; this is, depending on altitude, in the range of boost levels of many blower and piston scavenged low BMEP engines. (4) Micropilot ignition compares very favorably to other ignitions systems. The performance of micropilot ignition with mechanical gas admission valves is very similar to the performance of precombustion chamber ignition with high pressure fuel injection. Compared to spark ignition with mechanical gas admission valves the lean limit of operation is extended by about 5''Hg. These laboratory results will be enhanced, demonstrated and commercialized by others, with management and support from CSU, during Phase III of the Micropilot Ignition program.

  4. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  5. A forecast-driven tactical planning model for a serial manufacturing system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chhaochhria, Pallav

    We examine tactical planning for a serial manufacturing system that produces a product family with many process steps and low volumes. The system is subject to uncertainty in demand, in the supply of raw materials, and in ...

  6. Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robinson, J.

    2010-01-01

    The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...

  7. Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brest, Université de

    renewable energy resources are random and weather/climatic conditions-dependant. In this challenging context technical and economical constraints. Index Terms--Hybrid energy systems, renewable power generation-friendly nature (i.e. renewable energies). Although renewable energy penetration in electricity is expected

  8. ANEMOS: Development of a Next Generation Wind Power Forecasting System for the Large-Scale Integration of Onshore &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    -Scale Integration of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms. G. Kariniotakis* , D. Mayer, J. Moussafir, R. Chevallaz-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches

  9. Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing

  10. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  11. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  12. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  13. Snohomish PUD No 1 (TRL 7 8 System) - Puget Sound Pilot Tidal...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Documents & Publications Ocean Renewable Power Co (ORPC) (TRL 7 8 System) - TidGen (TM) Power System Commercialization Project Vortex Hydro Energy (TRL 5 6 System) - Advanced...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  16. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  17. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  19. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  20. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  1. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  2. Methodology for Field-Testing Thermal Ergonomics: A Pilot Study of Low-energy Personal Thermal Comfort Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fannon, David J

    2014-01-01

    Fundamentals of ergonomics in theory and practice".In: Applied ergonomics 31.6, pp. 557-567. Wolff, E.N. (for Field-Testing Thermal Ergonomics: A Pilot Study of Low-

  3. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  4. Evaluation Pilot-Scale Melter Systems for the Direct Vitrification Development Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mc Cray, Casey William; Thomson, Troy David

    2001-09-01

    This report documents the results of an evaluation conducted to identify a joule-heated melter system that could be installed in the Idaho Falls area in support of the Direct Vitrification Development Program. The relocation was to be completed by January 1, 2002, within a total budget of one million dollars. Coordination with the Department of Energy Tanks Focus Area identified five melters or melter systems that could potentially support the Direct Vitrification Development Program. Each unit was inspected and evaluated based on qualitative criteria such as availability, completeness of the system, contamination, scalability, materials of construction, facility requirements, and any unique features.

  5. Influence of Attic Radiant Barrier Systems on Air Conditioning Demand in an Utility Pilot Project 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parker, D. S.; Sherwin, J. R.

    2002-01-01

    A utility monitoring project has evaluated radiant barrier systems (RBS) as a new potential demand site management (DSM) program. The study examined how the retrofit of attic radiant barriers can be expected to alter utility residential space...

  6. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  7. PILOT OPTIMIZATION FOR TIME-DELAY AND CHANNEL ESTIMATION IN OFDM SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swindlehurst, A. Lee

    , Gonzalo Seco-Granados , A. Lee Swindlehurst Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ 85756, USA, mdlarsen. Previous work has investigated this problem for channel estimation only, and found that equi-spaced, equi bits/s). On the other hand, WLAN systems based on the IEEE802.11x family of standards al- low

  8. Instrumentation and Evaluation of a Pilot Scale Fluidized Bed Biomass Gasification System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Maglinao, Amado L

    2009-12-04

    DAQ. ...................................................... 11 Table 2 Bulk density and loading factor ........................................................ 18 Table 3 Sample gasification data readings ..................................................... 22 Table 4 Properties of the three... BED BIOMASS GASIFICATION SYSTEM OVERVIEW The conversion of biomass into energy (also called bioenergy) encompasses wide range of different types and sources of biomass, conversion options and end-use applications. These can be done through either...

  9. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  10. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  11. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  12. Analysis of Flow in Pilot Operated Safety and Relief Valve of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kwon, Soon-Bum; Lee, Dong-Won; Kim, In-Goo; Ahn, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Hho-Jung

    2004-07-01

    When the POSRV equipped in a nuclear power plant opens in instant by a failure in coolant system of PWR, a moving shock wave generates, and propagates downstream of the valve, inducing a complicated unsteadiness. The moving shock wave may exert severe load to the structure. In this connection, a method of gradual opening of the valve is used to reduce the load acting on the wall at the downstream of the POSRV. In the present study, experiments and calculations are performed to investigate the detail unsteady flow at the various pipe units and the effect of valve opening time on the flow downstream of the valve. In calculation by using of air as working fluid, 2-dimensional, unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved by finite volume method. It was found that when the incident shock wave passes through the pipe unit, it may experience diffraction, reflection and interaction with a vortex. Furthermore, the geometry of the pipe unit affects the reflection type of shock wave and changes the load acting on the wall of pipe unit. It was also turned out that the maximum force acting on the wall of the pipe unit becomes in order of T-junction, 108 deg. elbow and branch in magnitude, respectively. And, the results obtained that show that the rapid pressure rise due to the moving shock wave by instant POSRV valve opening is attenuated by employing the gradual opening. (authors)

  13. Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lenstra, Arjen K.

    ENAC/ Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS for population safety and! Computational program: Routing System MINERVE Run-off model Infiltration model

  14. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  15. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  16. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  17. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  18. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  19. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  20. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3; published 13 March 2009. [1] We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system

  3. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  5. Development of a pilot-scale kinetic extruder feeder system and test program. Phase II. Verification testing. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-01-12

    This report describes the work done under Phase II, the verification testing of the Kinetic Extruder. The main objective of the test program was to determine failure modes and wear rates. Only minor auxiliary equipment malfunctions were encountered. Wear rates indicate useful life expectancy of from 1 to 5 years for wear-exposed components. Recommendations are made for adapting the equipment for pilot plant and commercial applications. 3 references, 20 figures, 12 tables.

  6. Residential Sector End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1: Summary Input Assumptions and Results

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2010-01-01

    System (REEPS 2.1) , developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), is a forecasting model

  7. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  8. PILOT'S HANDBOOK Aeronautical Knowledge

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    #12;PILOT'S HANDBOOK of Aeronautical Knowledge 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL Matter.qxd 10/28/03 6:13 AM Page ii #12;iii PREFACE The Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge certification are presented. This handbook is useful to beginning pilots, as well as those pursuing more

  9. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  10. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  11. Murray City Power- Net Metering Pilot Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Under a pilot program, Murray City Power offers net metering to customers that generate electricity using photovoltaic (PV), wind-electric or hydroelectric systems with a maximum capacity of 10...

  12. Kentucky WRI Pilot Test Universal ID

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    screening deployment experience · Significant cost savings to FMCSA ·Enabling technology already deployedKentucky WRI Pilot Test ­ Universal ID Commercial Motor Vehicle Roadside Technology Corridor Safety Technology Showcase October 14, 2010 #12;·Utilizes existing automated screening system ·Uses assorted

  13. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  14. FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Erie

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FEBRUARY 1999 119O ' C O N N O R E T A L . Forecast Verification for Eta Model Winds Using Lake Forecasting System (GLCFS) can be used to validate wind forecasts for the Great Lakes using observed weather prediction step-coordinate Eta Model are able to forecast winds for the Great Lakes region, using

  15. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  16. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  17. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  20. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1Ł~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  1. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric  Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research.

  2. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  3. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  4. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Shaft Sealing System Compliance Submittal Design Report. Volume 1 and 2: Main report, appendices A, B, C, and D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01

    This report describes a shaft sealing system design for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a proposed nuclear waste repository in bedded salt. The system is designed to limit entry of water and release of contaminants through the four existing shafts after the WIPP is decommissioned. The design approach applies redundancy to functional elements and specifies multiple, common, low-permeability materials to reduce uncertainty in performance. The system comprises 13 elements that completely fill the shafts with engineered materials possessing high density and low permeability. Laboratory and field measurements of component properties and performance provide the basis for the design and related evaluations. Hydrologic, mechanical, thermal, and physical features of the system are evaluated in a series of calculations. These evaluations indicate that the design guidance is addressed by effectively limiting transport of fluids within the shafts, thereby limiting transport of hazardous material to regulatory boundaries. Additionally, the use or adaptation of existing technologies for placement of the seal components combined with the use of available, common materials assure that the design can be constructed.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  7. Characterization and Simulation of ECBM: History Matching of Forecasting CO2 Sequestration in Marshal County, West Virginia.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    that is capable of matching the methane production history and forecast field potential capacity for CO2 injection characterization and simulation process focused on natural gas production and subsequent CO2 injection) are the subject of this pilot CO2 sequestration project. Methane is produced from both coal seams; however CO2

  8. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  9. Pilot evaluation of electricity-reliability and power-quality monitoring in California's Silicon Valley with the I-Grid(R) system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, Joseph; Divan, Deepak; Brumsickle, William

    2004-02-01

    Power-quality events are of increasing concern for the economy because today's equipment, particularly computers and automated manufacturing devices, is susceptible to these imperceptible voltage changes. A small variation in voltage can cause this equipment to shut down for long periods, resulting in significant business losses. Tiny variations in power quality are difficult to detect except with expensive monitoring equipment used by trained technicians, so many electricity customers are unaware of the role of power-quality events in equipment malfunctioning. This report describes the findings from a pilot study coordinated through the Silicon Valley Manufacturers Group in California to explore the capabilities of I-Grid(R), a new power-quality monitoring system. This system is designed to improve the accessibility of power-quality in formation and to increase understanding of the growing importance of electricity reliability and power quality to the economy. The study used data collected by I-Grid sensors at seven Silicon Valley firms to investigate the impacts of power quality on individual study participants as well as to explore the capabilities of the I-Grid system to detect events on the larger electricity grid by means of correlation of data from the sensors at the different sites. In addition, study participants were interviewed about the value they place on power quality, and their efforts to address electricity-reliability and power-quality problems. Issues were identified that should be taken into consideration in developing a larger, potentially nationwide, network of power-quality sensors.

  10. PILOT-SCALE TEST RESULTS OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR SYSTEM FOR MANAGEMENT OF LIQUID HIGH-LEVEL WASTES AT THE HANFORD SITE WASHINGTON USA -11364

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    CORBETT JE; TEDESCH AR; WILSON RA; BECK TH; LARKIN J

    2011-02-14

    A modular, transportable evaporator system, using thin film evaporative technology, is planned for deployment at the Hanford radioactive waste storage tank complex. This technology, herein referred to as a wiped film evaporator (WFE), will be located at grade level above an underground storage tank to receive pumped liquids, concentrate the liquid stream from 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.4 and then return the concentrated solution back into the tank. Water is removed by evaporation at an internal heated drum surface exposed to high vacuum. The condensed water stream will be shipped to the site effluent treatment facility for final disposal. This operation provides significant risk mitigation to failure of the aging 242-A Evaporator facility; the only operating evaporative system at Hanford maximizing waste storage. This technology is being implemented through a development and deployment project by the tank farm operating contractor, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), for the Office of River Protection/Department of Energy (ORPIDOE), through Columbia Energy and Environmental Services, Inc. (Columbia Energy). The project will finalize technology maturity and install a system at one of the double-shell tank farms. This paper summarizes results of a pilot-scale test program conducted during calendar year 2010 as part of the ongoing technology maturation development scope for the WFE.

  11. FINAL REPORT TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-02R0100-2 REV 1 2/17/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BARDAKCI T; GONG W; D'ANGELO NA; SCHATZ TR; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from a series of nine tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part B1 [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plans. The nine tests reported here were preceded by an initial series of short-duration tests conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Reports. The DM1200 system was deployed for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. These tests include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The primary objective of the present series of tests was to determine the effects of a variety of parameters on the glass production rate in comparison to the RPP-WTP HL W design basis of 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d. Previous testing on the DMIOOO system [1] concluded that achievement of that rate with simulants of projected WTP melter feeds (AZ-101 and C-106/AY-102) was unlikely without the use of bubblers. As part of those tests, the same feed that was used during the cold-commissioning of the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) HLW vitrification system was run on the DM1000 system. The DM1000 tests reproduced the rates that were obtained at the larger WVDP facility, lending confidence to the tests results [1]. Since the inclusion or exclusion of a bubbler has significant design implications, the Project commissioned further tests to address this issue. In an effort to identify factors that might increase the glass production rate for projected WTP melter feeds, a subsequent series of tests was performed on the DM100 system. Several tests variables led to glass production rate increases to values significantly above the 400 kg/m2/d requirement. However, while small-scale melter tests are useful for screening relative effects, they tend to overestimate absolute glass production rates, particularly for un-bubbled tests. Consequently, when scale-up effects were taken into account, it was not clear that any of the variables investigated would conclusively meet the 400 kg/m{sup 2}/d requirement without bubbling. The present series of tests was therefore performed on the DM1200 one-third scale HLW pilot melter system to provide the required basis for a final decision on whether bubblers would be included in the HLW melter. The present tests employed the same AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing for consistency and comparability with the results from the earlier tests.

  12. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  13. An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenfield, M.A. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sargent, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

  14. Brazil advances subsea technology in Marlim pilot

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-29

    Petroleum Brasileiro SA has extended several water depth records for subsea technology during a pilot project in giant Marlim oil field in the Campos basin off Brazil. Petrobras finished the 10 well Marlim pilot last December. The field's pilot phase was intended to begin early production and enable Petrobras to gather more reservoir data. Ten satellite wells, including two prepilot wells, were completed during the Marlim pilot phase with guidelineless (GLL) wet christmas trees designed and fabricated by FMC Corp., Houston, and CBV Industrial Mechanic SA, Rio de Janeiro. The subsea wells are producing 52,000 b/d of oil and 21.19 MMCfd of gas in water depths of 1,847-2,562 ft. Marlim pilot well flow is routed to a permanent semisubmersible floating production system (FPS). Oil moves from the FPS to a monobuoy that offloads to a shuttle tanker. In addition to marking the first successful uses of purpose-built GLL wet trees, FMC said the Marlim pilot project allowed GLL subsea technology to evolve from conceptual status into a proven deepwater completion method. The paper describes the project.

  15. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    water heating systems, Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, wind speed predictions, control in power

  16. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  17. Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  19. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  20. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  1. Pilot Phase of a Field Study to Determine Waste of Water and Energy in Residential Hot-Water Distribution Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lutz, Jim

    2012-01-01

    Flow Sensor for potable water applications, Series VTY 10Metering Residential Hot Water by End-Use Development ofin a Typical Household Water System," Oak Ridge National

  2. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  3. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is łdelayed˛ and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  4. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  5. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  6. Feedforward and Feedback Control Behavior in Helicopter Pilots during a Lateral Reposition Task

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feedforward and Feedback Control Behavior in Helicopter Pilots during a Lateral Reposition Task F Pure feedback and pure open-loop feedforward helicopter pilot models are currently applied for predicting the perfor- mance of pilot-helicopter systems. We argue that feedback models are likely

  7. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise,...

  8. NSTAR Smart Grid Pilot

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rabari, Anil; Fadipe, Oloruntomi

    2014-03-31

    NSTAR Electric & Gas Corporation (“the Company”, or “NSTAR”) developed and implemented a Smart Grid pilot program beginning in 2010 to demonstrate the viability of leveraging existing automated meter reading (“AMR”) deployments to provide much of the Smart Grid functionality of advanced metering infrastructure (“AMI”), but without the large capital investment that AMI rollouts typically entail. In particular, a central objective of the Smart Energy Pilot was to enable residential dynamic pricing (time-of-use “TOU” and critical peak rates and rebates) and two-way direct load control (“DLC”) by continually capturing AMR meter data transmissions and communicating through customer-sited broadband connections in conjunction with a standardsbased home area network (“HAN”). The pilot was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (“DOE”) through the Smart Grid Demonstration program. NSTAR was very pleased to not only receive the funding support from DOE, but the guidance and support of the DOE throughout the pilot. NSTAR is also pleased to report to the DOE that it was able to execute and deliver a successful pilot on time and on budget. NSTAR looks for future opportunities to work with the DOE and others in future smart grid projects.

  9. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) SERC Photovoltaics for Residential Buildings Webinar Transcript...

  10. Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation As a WIPP agency, reporting...

  11. FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schubert, Wayne H.

    system using an efficient multigrid barotropic vorticity equation model (MBAR). Five perturbation classes Advisor Department Head ii #12;ABSTRACT OF THESIS FORECASTING OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES USING A KILO forecasts. These increases have been largely driven by improved numerical weather prediction models

  12. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  13. Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nocedal, Jorge

    Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization M. Fisher J weather prediction centers to produce the initial conditions for 7- to 10-day weather fore- casts, with particular reference to the system in operation at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 1

  14. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  15. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  17. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  18. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2014-06-10

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  19. Intro to NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Magrini, Kim

    2013-09-27

    NREL's Thermochemical Pilot Plant converts biomass into higher hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals.NREL is researching biomass pyrolysis. The lab is examining how to upgrade bio-oils via stabilization. Along with this, NREL is developing the engineering system requirements for producing these fuels and chemicals at larger scales.

  20. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  1. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  2. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  3. Assessment of Allowance Mechanismin China's Carbon Trading Pilots

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Xiong, Ling; Shen, Bo; Qi, Shaozhou; Price, Lynn

    2015-08-01

    The allowance mechanism is one of the core and sensitive aspects in design of a carbon trading scheme and affects the compliance cost for each company covered under the scheme. By examining China's allowance mechanism from two aspects including allowance allocation and allowance distribution, this paper compares China's carbon trading pilots with the EU Emissions Trading System and California Cap-and-Trade Program, and through the comparison identify issues that affect the efficiency of the pilots. The paper also recommends course of actions to strengthen China's existing pilots and build valuable experiences for the establishment of the national cap-and-trade system in China.

  4. Piloted Mars mission planning: NEP technology and power levels

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    George, J.A.; Hack, K.J.; Dudzinski, L.A.; Gefert, L.P. (NASA Lewis Research Center, 21000 Brookpark Rd., M.S. AAC-2, Cleveland, Ohio 44135 (United States)); Gilland, J.H. (Sverdrup Technology, Inc., NASA Lewis Research Center, 21000 Brookpark Rd., M.S. AAC-2, Cleveland, Ohio 44135 (United States))

    1993-01-10

    This paper examines the strong interrelationship between assumed technology and mission performance requirements for NEP. Recent systems analysis efforts by NASA, DOE, and various contractors are used to project achievable system performance as a function of technological sophistication for two piloted Mars mission applications. Specific mass regimes for each collection of technologies are presented as a function of power level for piloted applications. Low thrust mission analyses are presented which relate these system performance projections to achievable mission performance. Mission performance maps'' are constructed which link prime mission figures-of-merit of time and initial mass with system requirements on power level and specific mass, and hence technology. Both opposition and conjunction class piloted Mars missions are presented for the 2016 opportunity, analogous to those proposed in the 90-Day Study'' and Synthesis'' architecture studies. Mass and time breakdowns are presented for 10 MWe piloted and 5 MWe cargo point designs.

  5. Utilize cloud computing to support dust storm forecasting Qunying Huanga

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Songqing

    storm forecasting operational system should support a disruptive fashion by scaling up to enable high to save energy and costs. With the capability of providing a large, elastic, and virtualized pool and property damages since 1995 (Figure 1). Deaths and injuries are usually caused by car accidents, because

  6. MET 416: TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING Spring Semester 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    current (nowcasting) and expected weather, using all available real-time operational weather data Exam 4/9 Summer trade-wind weather based on HaRP 4/11-16 Large-scale influences, Diurnal cycle to the development of tropical storm systems and mesoscale weather. Lectures will include a forecasting perspective

  7. A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    A comparison study of data assimilation algorithms for ozone forecasts Lin Wu,1,2 V. Mallet,1,2 M assimilation schemes with the aim of designing suitable assimilation algorithms for short- range ozone but stable systems with high uncertainties (e.g., over 20% for ozone daily peaks (Hanna et al., 1998; Mallet

  8. Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cerpa, Alberto E.

    Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  10. Pilot Systems | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History ViewMayo, Maryland:NPIProtectio1975) | Open EnergyPhoenicia,Creek,Pilgrim Hot

  11. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  12. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  13. PILOT: design and capabilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    W. Saunders; P. R. Gillingham; A. J. McGrath; J. W. V. Storey; J. S. Lawrence

    2008-01-29

    The proposed design for PILOT is a general-purpose, wide-field 1 degree 2.4m, f/10 Ritchey-Chretien telescope, with fast tip-tilt guiding, for use 0.5-25 microns. The design allows both wide-field and diffraction-limited use at these wavelengths. The expected overall image quality, including median seeing, is 0.28-0.3" FWHM from 0.8-2.4 microns. Point source sensitivities are estimated.

  14. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  15. Using Climate Predictions in Great Lakes Hydrologic Forecasts T. E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lakes water levels cause extensive flooding, erosion, and damage to shorelines, shipping, and hydropower the forecasting system utility to decision makers and potential impacts in practical applications. CLIMATE EFFECTS

  16. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Christenson, Norm; Walters, Jerel

    2014-12-31

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 2b of the SkyMine® Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO2 from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO2 to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO2 capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to the point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and deployment. The overall process is carbon negative, resulting in mineralization of CO2 that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at the commercial scale. The project is being conducted in two phases. The primary objectives of Phase 1 were to evaluate proven SkyMine® process chemistry for commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2, complete a NEPA evaluation, and develop a comprehensive carbon life cycle analysis. The objective of Phase 2b was to build the pilot plant to be operated and tested in Phase 2c.

  17. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  18. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  19. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  20. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  1. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  3. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  4. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  6. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  7. Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant -...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - December 2014 Enterprise Assessments Review, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - December 2014 December, 2014 Review of the...

  8. Numerical Weather Forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1998-11-01

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally-released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND System, a system of computer models and monitors which collect data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND System dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications.

  9. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  10. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  11. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  12. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  13. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  14. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  15. 1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chow, Mo-Yuen

    are required to provide reliable power to customers. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future in their territory. Therefore, utilities are very concerned about distribution planning. They would like to use

  16. European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users

  17. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genčve, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  18. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  19. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  20. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  1. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  2. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  3. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  4. Numerical weather forecasting at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Buckley, R.L. [Westinghouse Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Weather forecasts at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are important for applications to emergency response. The fate of accidentally released radiological materials and toxic chemicals can be determined by providing wind and turbulence input to atmospheric transport models. This operation has been routinely performed at SRS using the WIND system, a system of computer models and monitors that collects data from towers situated throughout the SRS. However, the information provided to these models is spatially homogeneous (in one or two dimensions) with an elementary forecasting capability. This paper discusses the use of an advanced three-dimensional prognostic numerical model to provide space- and time-dependent meteorological data for use in the WIND system dispersion models. The extensive meteorological data collection at SRS serves as a ground truth for further model development as well as for use in other applications. A prognostic mesoscale model, the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), is used to provide these forecasts. Use of RAMS allows for incorporation of mesoscale features such as the sea breeze, which has been shown to affect local weather conditions. This paper discusses the mesoscale model and its configuration for the operational simulation, as well as an application using a dispersion model at the SRS.

  5. Short-term load forecasting using generalized regression and probabilistic neural networks in the electricity market

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tripathi, M.M.; Upadhyay, K.G.; Singh, S.N.

    2008-11-15

    For the economic and secure operation of power systems, a precise short-term load forecasting technique is essential. Modern load forecasting techniques - especially artificial neural network methods - are particularly attractive, as they have the ability to handle the non-linear relationships between load, weather temperature, and the factors affecting them directly. A test of two different ANN models on data from Australia's Victoria market is promising. (author)

  6. Pilot Plant Options for the MFE Roadmap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pilot Plant Options for the MFE Roadmap Hutch Neilson Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory International Workshop MFE Roadmapping for the ITER Era Princeton, NJ 10 September 2011 #12;Outline 2 · Pilot plant ­ mission, motivation, and description. · Role of pilot plants on the Roadmap to Demo. Pilot Plant

  7. Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2012-06-01

    This fact sheet provides information about Biochemical Conversion Pilot Plant capabilities and resources at NREL.

  8. 526 VOLUME 14W E A T H E R A N D F O R E C A S T I N G Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    by the automation of largely clerical tasks, allowing the forecasters more time to focus on the forecast problem in Kansas City, numerous major changes took place in forecast products, computer systems, and personnel mi either side of a line from city A to city B). The watch process has played an important role over

  9. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  10. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  11. SkyMine Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Joe Jones; Clive Barton; Mark Clayton; Al Yablonsky; David Legere

    2010-09-30

    This Topical Report addresses accomplishments achieved during Phase 1 of the SkyMine{reg_sign} Carbon Mineralization Pilot Project. The primary objectives of this project are to design, construct, and operate a system to capture CO{sub 2} from a slipstream of flue gas from a commercial coal-fired cement kiln, convert that CO{sub 2} to products having commercial value (i.e., beneficial use), show the economic viability of the CO{sub 2} capture and conversion process, and thereby advance the technology to a point of readiness for commercial scale demonstration and proliferation. The project will also substantiate market opportunities for the technology by sales of chemicals into existing markets, and identify opportunities to improve technology performance and reduce costs at commercial scale. The primary objectives of Phase 1 of the project were to elaborate proven SkyMine{reg_sign} process chemistry to commercial pilot-scale operation and complete the preliminary design ('Reference Plant Design') for the pilot plant to be built and operated in Phase 2. Additionally, during Phase 1, information necessary to inform a DOE determination regarding NEPA requirements for the project was developed, and a comprehensive carbon lifecycle analysis was completed. These items were included in the formal application for funding under Phase 2. All Phase 1 objectives were successfully met on schedule and within budget.

  12. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  13. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  14. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  15. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  16. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  17. FINAL REPORT START-UP AND COMMISSIONING TESTS ON THE DURAMELTER 1200 HLW PILOT MELTER SYSTEM USING AZ-101 HLW SIMULANTS VSL-01R0100-2 REV 0 1/20/03

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KRUGER AA; MATLACK KS; KOT WK; BRANDYS M; WILSON CN; SCHATZ TR; GONG W; PEGG IL

    2011-12-29

    This document provides the final report on data and results obtained from commissioning tests performed on the one-third scale DuraMelter{trademark} 1200 (DM 1200) HLW Pilot Melter system that has been installed at VSL with an integrated prototypical off-gas treatment system. That system has replaced the DM1000 system that was used for HLW throughput testing during Part BI [1]. Both melters have similar melt surface areas (1.2 m{sup 2}) but the DM1200 is prototypical of the present RPP-WTP HLW melter design whereas the DM1000 was not. These tests were performed under a corresponding RPP-WTP Test Specification and associated Test Plan. This report is a followup to the previously issued Preliminary Data Summary Report. The DM1200 system will be used for testing and confirmation of basic design, operability, flow sheet, and process control assumptions as well as for support of waste form qualification and permitting. This will include data on processing rates, off-gas treatment system performance, recycle stream compositions, as well as process operability and reliability. Consequently, this system is a key component of the overall HLW vitrification development strategy. The results presented in this report are from the initial series of short-duration tests that were conducted to support the start-up and commissioning of this system prior to conducting the main body of development tests that have been planned for this system. These tests were directed primarily at system 'debugging,' operator training, and procedure refinement. The AZ-101 waste simulant and glass composition that was used for previous testing was selected for these tests.

  18. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08

    .............................................................................................9 Task 1: Developing a database of solar weather data ...............................9 Task 2: Developing the ?dynamic analysis? process .............................. 10 Task 3: Developing a Java applet that presents real-time solar...-computing resources have been recently discovered. Software materials include the programming language ?Java?, the Graphical-User-Interface ?JCreator?, and Rapid Miner. We also make use of publicly available scientific databases that contain a vast plethora...

  19. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  20. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  1. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  7. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  8. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  9. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  10. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  11. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  12. 13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of computing power, innovative numerical systems, and assimilation of observations at high spatial and temporal system as a means by which model error and uncertainty can be quantified in the forecast. Employing13.2 A REPORT AND FEATURE-BASED VERIFICATION STUDY OF THE CAPS 2008 STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  13. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  14. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  15. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  16. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  17. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  18. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE conducted its first pilot test of the Asset Score in 2012. Findings from that pilot led to improvements in the overall program and the Asset Scoring Tool. The tool was updated to include the...

  19. The DOE Water Cycle Pilot Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2003-01-01

    The DOE Water Cycle Pilot Study N.L. Miller 1 *, A.W. KingCycle Research Strategy, DOE SC-0043, Office of BiologicalLBNL Report LBNL-53826. The DOE Water Cycle Pilot Study is

  20. Hydrogen Fuel Pilot Plant and Hydrogen ICE Vehicle Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Francfort (INEEL)

    2005-03-01

    The U.S. Department Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA) teamed with Electric Transportation Applications (ETA) and Arizona Public Service (APS) to develop the APS Alternative Fuel (Hydrogen) Pilot Plant that produces and compresses hydrogen on site through an electrolysis process by operating a PEM fuel cell in reverse; natural gas is also compressed onsite. The Pilot Plant dispenses 100% hydrogen, 15 to 50% blends of hydrogen and compressed natural gas (H/CNG), and 100% CNG via a credit card billing system at pressures up to 5,000 psi. Thirty internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles (including Daimler Chrysler, Ford and General Motors vehicles) are operating on 100% hydrogen and 15 to 50% H/CNG blends. Since the Pilot Plant started operating in June 2002, they hydrogen and H/CNG ICE vehicels have accumulated 250,000 test miles.

  1. Pilot evaluation of electricity-reliability and power-quality monitoring in California's Silicon Valley with the I-Grid(R) system

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eto, Joseph; Divan, Deepak; Brumsickle, William

    2004-01-01

    Silicon Valley with the I-Grid ® System Prepared for Imre Gyuk Energy StorageSilicon Valley with the I-Grid System Acknowledgments The authors thank Imre Gyuk, DOE Energy Storage

  2. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  3. Load Pocket Forecasting Software E. A. Feinberg, D. Genethliou, J.T. Hajagos, B.G. Irrgang, and R. J. Rossin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    by electric utilities to estimate and forecast the load growth in different service areas. The software builds. The software can be used for area planning purposes. The software contains user's tools to design new load pockets and to modify the existing ones. Index Terms--Load forecasting, power system planning I

  4. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  5. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  6. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  7. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  8. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  9. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  10. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  11. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  12. Assessment and development of an industrial wet oxidation system for burning waste and low upgrade fuels. Final report, Phase 2B: Pilot demonstration of the MODAR supercritical water oxidation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    Stone & Webster Engineering Corporation is Project Manager for the Development and Demonstration of an Industrial Wet Oxidation System for Burning Wastes and Low Grade Fuel. This program has been ongoing through a Cooperative Agreement sponsored by the Department of Energy, initiated in June 1988. This report presents a comprehensive discussion of the results of the demonstration project conducted under this cooperative agreement with the overall goal of advancing the state-of-the-art in the practice of Supercritical Water Oxidation (SCWO). In recognition of the Government`s support of this project, we have endeavored to include all material and results that are not proprietary in as much detail as possible while still protecting MODAR`s proprietary technology. A specific example is in the discussion of materials of construction where results are presented while, in some cases, the specific materials are not identified. The report presents the results chronologically. Background material on the earlier phases (Section 2) provide an understanding of the evolution of the program, and bring all reviewers to a common starting point. Section 3 provides a discussion of activities from October 1991 through July 1992, during which the pilot plant was designed; and various studies including computational fluid dynamic modeling of the reactor vessel, and a process HAZOP analyses were conducted. Significant events during fabrication are presented in Section 4. The experimental results of the test program (December 1992--August 1993) are discussed in Section 5.

  13. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  14. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  15. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  16. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  17. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  18. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  19. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  20. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  1. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  2. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  3. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  4. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  5. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  6. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  7. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  8. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  9. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  10. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  11. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  14. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  15. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  16. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  17. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  18. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  19. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  20. Development of a next-generation regional weather research and forecast model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michalakes, J.; Chen, S.; Dudhia, J.; Hart, L.; Klemp, J.; Middlecoff, J.; Skamarock, W.

    2001-02-05

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) project is a multi-institutional effort to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system that is accurate, efficient, and scalable across a range of scales and over a host of computer platforms. The first release, WRF 1.0, was November 30, 2000, with operational deployment targeted for the 2004-05 time frame. This paper provides an overview of the project and current status of the WRF development effort in the areas of numerics and physics, software and data architecture, and single-source parallelism and performance portability.

  1. Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    @compute.dtu.dk www.compute.dtu.dk M.Sc.-2013-87 #12;Summary (English) The Danish power production coming from energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present Thesis

  2. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  3. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  4. Bidding wind energy exploiting wind speed forecasts Antonio Giannitrapani, Simone Paoletti,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garulli, Andrea

    -ahead generation profile for a wind power producer by exploiting wind speed forecasts provided by a meteorological service. In the con- sidered framework, the wind power producer is called to take part integration in the grid is causing serious problems to transmission and distribution system operators [2]. One

  5. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    for this systems. Depending on the application, prediction of solar irradiance is beneficial on different timeSHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette Solar World Congress. This portion of the paper is the abstract. The abstract should not exceed 250

  6. European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research

  7. Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Evalua&ng the usefulness of spa&al forecast verifica&on methods for developing op&mal mix of observa&onal systems and NWP for real-&me nowcas&ng and forecas&ng&al end users Developing a Quan.ta.ve Precipita.on Es.ma.on, Nowcas.ng and Streamflow

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  9. Testing Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoeksema, Todd

    becomes more technologically dependent on complex global systems, the potential risk posedTesting Automated Solar Flare Forecasting With 13 Years of MDI Synoptic Magnetograms J.P. Mason1 is statistically associated with changes in several characteris- tics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar

  10. Pilot Scale Advanced Fogging Demonstration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demmer, Rick L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fox, Don T. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Archiblad, Kip E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Experiments in 2006 developed a useful fog solution using three different chemical constituents. Optimization of the fog recipe and use of commercially available equipment were identified as needs that had not been addressed. During 2012 development work it was noted that low concentrations of the components hampered coverage and drying in the United Kingdom’s National Nuclear Laboratory’s testing much more so than was evident in the 2006 tests. In fiscal year 2014 the Idaho National Laboratory undertook a systematic optimization of the fogging formulation and conducted a non-radioactive, pilot scale demonstration using commercially available fogging equipment. While not as sophisticated as the equipment used in earlier testing, the new approach is much less expensive and readily available for smaller scale operations. Pilot scale testing was important to validate new equipment of an appropriate scale, optimize the chemistry of the fogging solution, and to realize the conceptual approach.

  11. The National Conversion Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Roberts, A.V.

    1995-12-31

    The National Conversion Pilot Project (NCPP) is a recycling project under way at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Colorado. The recycling aim of the project is threefold: to reuse existing nuclear weapon component production facilities for the production of commercially marketable products, to reuse existing material (uranium, beryllium, and radioactively contaminated scrap metals) for the production of these products, and to reemploy former Rocky Flats workers in this process.

  12. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cańizares, Claudio A.

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical

  13. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  14. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Transportation Security | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Accident Investigation of the February 5, 2014, Underground Salt Haul Truck Fire at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Carlsbad NM Accident Investigation Report - Fire...

  15. 90% Compliance Pilot Studies Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-06-01

    In early 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced an opportunity for states to participate in energy code compliance evaluation pilot studies. DOE worked with five Regional Energy Efficiency Organizations (REEOs, formerly referred to as Energy Efficiency Partnerships, or EEPs) to fund pilot studies covering nine states. This report details conclusions stated in individual state reports, as well as conclusions drawn by DOE based on their oversight of the pilot studies, and based on discussions held with the REEOs and representatives from the pilot study states and their contractors.

  16. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia Success Story Case Study with WIPP program overview, information regarding eligibility, and successes from Pennsylvanias...

  17. BPA, Energy Northwest launch demand response pilot

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BPA-Energy-Northwest-launch-demand-response-pilot Sign In About | Careers | Contact | Investors | bpa.gov Search News & Us Expand News & Us Projects & Initiatives Expand...

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs: FORECASTING EARTH'S SURFACE RESPONSE

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Brad Murray, A.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  19. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  20. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  1. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  2. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentric viewing system for light collectionEnergy

  3. LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-08

    Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.

  4. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot Data Collection...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Pilot Data Collection Form Commercial Building Energy Asset Score 2013 Pilot Data Collection Form This form is intended to facilitate your data collection. The Energy Asset Scoring...

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Isolation Pilot Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to Maximize Results Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Typifies Optimizing Resources to Maximize Results March 5, 2013 - 12:00pm...

  6. New Mexico Environmental Department (NMED) Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Mexico Environmental Department (NMED) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Hazardous Waste Facility Permit New Mexico Environmental Department (NMED) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

  7. Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Federal Technology Deployment Pilot: Exterior Solid State Lighting Presentation-given at the Fall 2011 Federal...

  8. Enterprise Assessments Review of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Engineering and Procurement Processes - November 2015 Enterprise Assessments Review of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Engineering and Procurement Processes...

  9. 2014 call for NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program 2014 call for NERSC's Data Intensive Computing Pilot Program Due December 10 November 18, 2013 by Francesca Verdier (0 Comments)...

  10. Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories with Clean Energy Small Businesses Pilot Aims to Partner Energy Department's National Laboratories with Clean Energy...

  11. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Waste Analysis Plan The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, Waste Analysis Plan This...

  12. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Update Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Update More Documents & Publications Transuranic Package Transporter (TRUPACT-III) Content Codes (TRUCON-III)...

  13. Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: Pilot Findings and Program...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Score: Pilot Findings and Program Update Commercial Building Energy Asset Score: Pilot Findings and Program Update The webinar was held on April 16, 2014, to share the findings...

  14. Building Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio Manager Fact Sheet Building Performance with ENERGY STAR Pilot Program Portfolio Manager Fact Sheet Building Performance with...

  15. Source Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Source Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Release Quantity Source Term Analysis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Release Quantity This document was...

  16. Cook-off Experiments with Surrogate Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Cook-off Experiments with Surrogate Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Drum Contents Cook-off Experiments with Surrogate Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Drum Contents This...

  17. Summary of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Hypotheses | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Summary of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Hypotheses Summary of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Hypotheses This document was used to determine facts and conditions during...

  18. Review of Recent Pilot Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Demonstration...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Review of Recent Pilot Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Demonstration Review of Recent Pilot Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Demonstration Opening Plenary Session: Celebrating Successes-The...

  19. Advanced engineering environment pilot project.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwegel, Jill; Pomplun, Alan R.; Abernathy, Rusty

    2006-10-01

    The Advanced Engineering Environment (AEE) is a concurrent engineering concept that enables real-time process tooling design and analysis, collaborative process flow development, automated document creation, and full process traceability throughout a product's life cycle. The AEE will enable NNSA's Design and Production Agencies to collaborate through a singular integrated process. Sandia National Laboratories and Parametric Technology Corporation (PTC) are working together on a prototype AEE pilot project to evaluate PTC's product collaboration tools relative to the needs of the NWC. The primary deliverable for the project is a set of validated criteria for defining a complete commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution to deploy the AEE across the NWC.

  20. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Safety Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-11-01

    The following provides a summary of the specific issues addressed in this FY-95 Annual Update as they relate to the CH TRU safety bases: Executive Summary; Site Characteristics; Principal Design and Safety Criteria; Facility Design and Operation; Hazards and Accident Analysis; Derivation of Technical Safety Requirements; Radiological and Hazardous Material Protection; Institutional Programs; Quality Assurance; and Decontamination and Decommissioning. The System Design Descriptions`` (SDDS) for the WIPP were reviewed and incorporated into Chapter 3, Principal Design and Safety Criteria and Chapter 4, Facility Design and Operation. This provides the most currently available final engineering design information on waste emplacement operations throughout the disposal phase up to the point of permanent closure. Also, the criteria which define the TRU waste to be accepted for disposal at the WIPP facility were summarized in Chapter 3 based on the WAC for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.`` This Safety Analysis Report (SAR) documents the safety analyses that develop and evaluate the adequacy of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Contact-Handled Transuranic Wastes (WIPP CH TRU) safety bases necessary to ensure the safety of workers, the public and the environment from the hazards posed by WIPP waste handling and emplacement operations during the disposal phase and hazards associated with the decommissioning and decontamination phase. The analyses of the hazards associated with the long-term (10,000 year) disposal of TRU and TRU mixed waste, and demonstration of compliance with the requirements of 40 CFR 191, Subpart B and 40 CFR 268.6 will be addressed in detail in the WIPP Final Certification Application scheduled for submittal in October 1996 (40 CFR 191) and the No-Migration Variance Petition (40 CFR 268.6) scheduled for submittal in June 1996. Section 5.4, Long-Term Waste Isolation Assessment summarizes the current status of the assessment.

  1. Pilot fuel ignited stratified charge rotary combustion engine and fuel injector therefor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loyd, R. W.

    1980-02-12

    For a pilot fuel ignited stratified charge rotary, internal combustion engine, the fuel injection system and a fuel injector therefor comprises a fuel injector having plural discharge ports with at least one of the discharge ports located to emit a ''pilot'' fuel charge (relatively rich fuel-air mixture) into a passage in the engine housing, which passage communicates with the engine combustion chambers. An ignition element is located in the passage to ignite the ''pilot'' fuel (a relatively rich fuel-air mixture) flowing through the passage. At least one other discharge port of the fuel injector is in substantially direct communication with the combustion chambers of the engine to emit a main fuel charge into the latter. The ignited ''pilot'' fuelair mixture, when ignited, flashes into the combustion chambers to ignite the main, relatively lean, fuel-air mixture which is in the combustion chambers.

  2. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  3. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  4. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  5. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  6. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  7. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  8. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  9. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  10. IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN SIGNAL PROCESSING, VOL. 8, NO. 5, OCTOBER 2014 759 Pilot Contamination Elimination for Large-Scale

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Sheng

    Contamination Elimination for Large-Scale Multiple-Antenna Aided OFDM Systems Jiankang Zhang, Member, IEEE, Bo, Fellow, IEEE Abstract--Pilot contamination constitutes a particularly signif- icant impairment in large-scale multi-cell systems. We propose an effective pilot contamination elimination scheme for multi-cell time

  11. 500-kW DCHX pilot-plant evaluation testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hlinak, A.; Lee, T.; Loback, J.; Nichols, K.; Olander, R.; Oshmyansky, S.; Roberts, G.; Werner, D.

    1981-10-01

    Field tests with the 500 kW Direct Contact Pilot Plant were conducted utilizing brine from well Mesa 6-2. The tests were intended to develop comprehensive performance data, design criteria, and economic factors for the direct contact power plant. The tests were conducted in two phases. The first test phase was to determine specific component performance of the DCHX, turbine, condensers and pumps, and to evaluate chemical mass balances of non-condensible gases in the IC/sub 4/ loop and IC/sub 4/ in the brine stream. The second test phase was to provide a longer term run at nearly fixed operating conditions in order to evaluate plant performance and identify operating cost data for the pilot plant. During these tests the total accumulated run time on major system components exceeded 1180 hours with 777 hours on the turbine prime mover. Direct contact heat exchanger performance exceeded the design prediction.

  12. Energy Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ferland, K.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation will address results from a pilot project with 10 chemical plants on energy management systems and the development of an energy efficiency plant certification program....

  13. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  14. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  15. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  16. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  17. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  18. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  19. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  20. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  1. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  2. Costilla County Biodiesel Pilot Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Doon, Ben; Quintana, Dan

    2011-08-25

    The Costilla County Biodiesel Pilot Project has demonstrated the compatibility of biodiesel technology and economics on a local scale. The project has been committed to making homegrown biodiesel a viable form of community economic development. The project has benefited by reducing risks by building the facility gradually and avoiding large initial outlays of money for facilities and technologies. A primary advantage of this type of community-scale biodiesel production is that it allows for a relatively independent, local solution to fuel production. Successfully using locally sourced feedstocks and putting the fuel into local use emphasizes the feasibility of different business models under the biodiesel tent and that there is more than just a one size fits all template for successful biodiesel production.

  3. Better Plants Water Pilot- Overview

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is expanding the Better Buildings Challenge to help partners demonstrate successful approaches to saving water and decrease their utility bills. The commercial and industrial sectors account for more than 25 percent of the withdrawals from public water supplies and many organizations in these sectors may have savings opportunities of 20 to 40%. The efficient use of water resources results in lower operating costs, a more reliable water supply, and improved water quality. Additionally, because energy is required to transport and treat water, saving water also saves energy. Through this pilot, DOE will work with a small, diverse group of Better Buildings Challenge Partners to expand their resource management strategies to include water in addition to energy, set water savings goals, track progress and showcase solutions.

  4. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  5. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  6. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  7. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  8. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  9. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  10. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  11. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  12. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  13. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  14. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  15. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  16. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  18. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  19. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  20. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  1. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  2. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  3. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  4. Description of Regional Superfund pilots. Excerpts from `Status of Regional Superfund pilots: End-of-year report`

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-12-31

    Following are brief descriptions of the Regional Superfund pilots excerpted from OSWER Publication 9202.1-15A entitled, ``Status of Regional Superfund Pilots: End of Year Report`` (NTIS {number_sign}PB94-963216). The above-referenced report provides greater detail on each pilot`s goals, status and results to date.

  5. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  6. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  7. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  8. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  9. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  11. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  14. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  15. Demand Response Aggregated Demand Response Pilot

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    · Owns and operates over 1,300 megawatts of nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, and wind generation assets · Increasingly less capacity and flexibility of its hydroelectric resources · EN's Pilot provides BPA 35 MW

  16. Portland General Electric Company Pilot Evaluation and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . The purposes of this pilot were to measure the load impact of turning off water heaters during peak hours, test during January and February 2003. A load control relay with a one-way paging device (receiver

  17. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-00000309 dealing with the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program.

  18. Decision support for the general aviation pilot 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alcorn, W. P.; Lee, K. A.; Ward, D. T.; Trang, J. A.; Krishnamurthy, K.; Crump, J. W.; Branham, P. A.; Woo, D. L. Y.; Ren-Jye Yu; Robbins, A. C.; Painter, John H.; Kelly, W. E. III

    1997-10-12

    . Software development is carried out using a fixed-base engineering flight simulator. Pilot participation in all phases of development and evaluation is the norm. Flight tests have begun on an instrumented research light twin owned by the Texas A...

  19. HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zimring, Mark

    2011-01-01

    PowerSaver pilot will provide lender insurance for secured25 million in grants as incentives to participating lenders.FHA is seeking lenders in communities with existing programs

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  1. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  2. Commercial and Industrial Base Intermittent Resource Management Pilot

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kiliccote, Sila

    2011-01-01

    the day-ahead load and wind forecasts can have a significantthe forecast error on the generation side with wind andforecast. C OMBINED IMPACT OF W IND & S OLAR Today, wind and

  3. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  4. Industrial Gas Turbine Engine Catalytic Pilot Combustor-Prototype Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shahrokh Etemad; Benjamin Baird; Sandeep Alavandi; William Pfefferle

    2009-09-30

    PCI has developed and demonstrated its Rich Catalytic Lean-burn (RCL®) technology for industrial and utility gas turbines to meet DOEâ??s goals of low single digit emissions. The technology offers stable combustion with extended turndown allowing ultra-low emissions without the cost of exhaust after-treatment and further increasing overall efficiency (avoidance of after-treatment losses). The objective of the work was to develop and demonstrate emission benefits of the catalytic technology to meet strict emissions regulations. Two different applications of the RCL® concept were demonstrated: RCL® catalytic pilot and Full RCL®. The RCL® catalytic pilot was designed to replace the existing pilot (a typical source of high NOx production) in the existing Dry Low NOx (DLN) injector, providing benefit of catalytic combustion while minimizing engine modification. This report discusses the development and single injector and engine testing of a set of T70 injectors equipped with RCL® pilots for natural gas applications. The overall (catalytic pilot plus main injector) program NOx target of less than 5 ppm (corrected to 15% oxygen) was achieved in the T70 engine for the complete set of conditions with engine CO emissions less than 10 ppm. Combustor acoustics were low (at or below 0.1 psi RMS) during testing. The RCL® catalytic pilot supported engine startup and shutdown process without major modification of existing engine controls. During high pressure testing, the catalytic pilot showed no incidence of flashback or autoignition while operating over a wide range of flame temperatures. In applications where lower NOx production is required (i.e. less than 3 ppm), in parallel, a Full RCL® combustor was developed that replaces the existing DLN injector providing potential for maximum emissions reduction. This concept was tested at industrial gas turbine conditions in a Solar Turbines, Incorporated high-pressure (17 atm.) combustion rig and in a modified Solar Turbines, Incorporated Saturn engine rig. High pressure single-injector rig and modified engine rig tests demonstrated NOx less than 2 ppm and CO less than 10 ppm over a wide flame temperature operating regime with low combustion noise (<0.15% peak-to-peak). Minimum NOx for the optimized engine retrofit Full RCL® designs was less than 1 ppm with CO emissions less than 10 ppm. Durability testing of the substrate and catalyst material was successfully demonstrated at pressure and temperature showing long term stable performance of the catalytic reactor element. Stable performance of the reactor element was achieved when subjected to durability tests (>5000 hours) at simulated engine conditions (P=15 atm, Tin=400C/750F.). Cyclic tests simulating engine trips was also demonstrated for catalyst reliability. In addition to catalyst tests, substrate oxidation testing was also performed for downselected substrate candidates for over 25,000 hours. At the end of the program, an RCL® catalytic pilot system has been developed and demonstrated to produce NOx emissions of less than 3 ppm (corrected to 15% O2) for 100% and 50% load operation in a production engine operating on natural gas. In addition, a Full RCL® combustor has been designed and demonstrated less than 2 ppm NOx (with potential to achieve 1 ppm) in single injector and modified engine testing. The catalyst/substrate combination has been shown to be stable up to 5500 hrs in simulated engine conditions.

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Salt Decontamination Testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rick Demmer; Stephen Reese

    2014-09-01

    On February 14, 2014, americium and plutonium contamination was released in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt caverns. At the request of WIPP’s operations contractor, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) personnel developed several methods of decontaminating WIPP salt, using surrogate contaminants and also americium (241Am). The effectiveness of the methods is evaluated qualitatively, and to the extent possible, quantitatively. One of the requirements of this effort was delivering initial results and recommendations within a few weeks. That requirement, in combination with the limited scope of the project, made in-depth analysis impractical in some instances. Of the methods tested (dry brushing, vacuum cleaning, water washing, strippable coatings, and mechanical grinding), the most practical seems to be water washing. Effectiveness is very high, and it is very easy and rapid to deploy. The amount of wastewater produced (2 L/m2) would be substantial and may not be easy to manage, but the method is the clear winner from a usability perspective. Removable surface contamination levels (smear results) from the strippable coating and water washing coupons found no residual removable contamination. Thus, whatever is left is likely adhered to (or trapped within) the salt. The other option that shows promise is the use of a fixative barrier. Bartlett Nuclear, Inc.’s Polymeric Barrier System (PBS) proved the most durable of the coatings tested. The coatings were not tested for contaminant entrapment, only for coating integrity and durability.

  6. Towards a Dynamic Data Driven Application System for Wildfire Simulation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Knyazev, Andrew

    -time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The system should change the forecast when new data is received (DDDAS) for short-range forecast of wildfire behavior with models steered by real-time weather data, images, and sensor streams. The forecast should be based on all available data, such as fuel maps

  7. Colibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    forecasting consists in forecasting future sales based on past sales. In a company, one or several forecasters a company to another. However, in gen- eral, this period concerns the twelve future months. 4. Future salesColibri: Towards a New Generation of Advanced Planning Systems Fatoumata Camara Objet Direct

  8. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  9. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  10. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  11. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  12. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  13. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  14. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  15. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  16. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  17. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  18. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Annual Site Environmental Report for 2012 (ASER) is to provide information required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting. Specifically, the ASER presents summary environmental data to: Characterize site environmental management performance; Summarize environmental occurrences and responses reported during the calendar year; Confirm compliance with environmental standards and requirements; Highlight significant environmental accomplishments, including progress toward the DOE Environmental Sustainability Goals made through implementation of the WIPP Environmental Management System (EMS).

  19. The new Athens Center applied to Space Weather Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavromichalaki, H.; Sarlanis, C.; Souvatzoglou, G.; Mariatos, G.; Gerontidou, M.; Plainaki, C.; Papaioannou, A.; Tatsis, S. [University of Athens, Physics Department, Section of Nuclear and Particle Physics, Zografos 15771 Athens (Greece); Belov, A.; Eroshenko, E.; Yanke, V. [IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, 1420092 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-08-25

    The Sun provides most of the initial energy driving space weather and modulates the energy input from sources outside the solar system, but this energy undergoes many transformations within the various components of the solar-terrestrial system, which is comprised of the solar wind, magnetosphere and radiation belts, the ionosphere, and the upper and lower atmospheres of Earth. This is the reason why an Earth's based neutron monitor network can be used in order to produce a real time forecasting of space weather phenomena.Since 2004 a fully functioned new data analysis Center in real-time is in operation in Neutron Monitor Station of Athens University (ANMODAP Center) suitable for research applications. It provides a multi sided use of twenty three neutron monitor stations distributing in all world and operating in real-time given crucial information on space weather phenomena. In particular, the ANMODAP Center can give a preliminary alert of ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays which can be registered around 20 to 30 minutes before the main part of lower energy particles. Therefore these energetic solar cosmic rays provide the advantage of forth warning. Moreover, the monitoring of the precursors of cosmic rays gives a forehand estimate on that kind of events should be expected (geomagnetic storms and/or Forbush decreases)

  20. Weight loss reduces breast ductal fluid estrogens in obese postmenopausal women: a single arm intervention pilot study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2012-01-01

    postmenopausal women: a single arm intervention pilot studypostmenopausal women: a single arm intervention pilot study.

  1. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  2. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  3. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  4. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  5. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  6. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  7. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  8. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  9. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  10. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  11. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  12. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  13. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  14. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  15. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  16. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  17. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  18. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  19. Changes in the Economic Value of Variable Generation at High Penetration Levels: A Pilot Case Study of California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mills, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    RT deviations impose (i.e. wind forecast errors on averagerelative magnitude of wind forecast errors decreases betweenwith managing DA wind forecast errors steadily increases.

  20. Pilot-scale treatability test plan for the 100-HR-3 operable unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This document presents the treatability test plan for pilot-scale pump-and-treat testing at the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. The test will be conducted in fulfillment of interim Milestone M-15-06E to begin pilot-scale pump-and-treat operations by August 1994. The scope of the test was determined based on the results of lab/bench-scale tests (WHC 1993a) conducted in fulfillment of Milestone M-15-06B. These milestones were established per agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Washington State Department of Ecology and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and documented on Hanford Federal of Ecology Facility Agreement and Consent Order Change Control Form M-15-93-02. This test plan discusses a pilot-scale pump-and-treat test for the chromium plume associated with the D Reactor portion of the 100-HR-3 Operable Unit. Data will be collected during the pilot test to assess the effectiveness, operating parameters, and resource needs of the ion exchange (IX) pump-and-treat system. The test will provide information to assess the ability to remove contaminants by extracting groundwater from wells and treating extracted groundwater using IX. Bench-scale tests were conducted previously in which chromium VI was identified as the primary contaminant of concern in the 100-D reactor plume. The DOWEX 21K{trademark} resin was recommended for pilot-scale testing of an IX pump-and-treat system. The bench-scale test demonstrated that the system could remove chromium VI from groundwater to concentrations less than 50 ppb. The test also identified process parameters to monitor during pilot-scale testing. Water will be re-injected into the plume using wells outside the zone of influence and upgradient of the extraction well.

  1. Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Menut, Laurent

    , French legislation has been adapted in such a way that the local authorities in charge of air pollution can now inform the public and take emergency decisions re- lated to air pollution control not onlyOLOGICAL SOCIETy | #12;air quality monitoring system. In case of a pollution episode, when concentrations exceed

  2. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  3. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  4. Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Samples R-15 C-5 SWB and R-16 C-4 Lip Chemical and Radiochemical Analyses of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant...

  5. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Status and Plans - 2010 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 Overview of WIPP presented by Dr. Dave Moody. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Status and Plans - 2010 More...

  6. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest June 26, 2013 - 12:00pm Addthis Lights, Camera, Action In May 2013, an INDIGO...

  7. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Attracts World Interest June 26, 2013 - 12:00pm Addthis Lights, Camera, Action In May 2013, an...

  8. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  9. HUD PowerSaver Pilot Loan Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zimring, Mark; Hoffman, Ian

    2010-12-10

    The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently announced the creation of a pilot loan program for home energy improvements. The PowerSaver loan program is a new, energy-focused variant of the Title I Property Improvement Loan Insurance Program (Title I Program) and is planned for introduction in early 2011. The PowerSaver pilot will provide lender insurance for secured and unsecured loans up to $25,000 to single family homeowners. These loans will specifically target residential energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements. HUD estimates the two-year pilot will fund approximately 24,000 loans worth up to $300 million; the program is not capped. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), HUD's mortgage insurance unit, will provide up to $25 million in grants as incentives to participating lenders. FHA is seeking lenders in communities with existing programs for promoting residential energy upgrades.

  10. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  11. Case studies of energy efficiency financing in the original five pilot states, 1993-1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farhar, B.C.; Collins, N.E.; Walsh, R.W.

    1997-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in state-level programs in energy efficiency financing programs that are linked with home energy rating systems. Case studies are presented of programs in five states using a federal pilot program to amortize the costs of home energy improvements. The case studies present background information, describe the states` program, list preliminary evaluation data and findings, and discuss problems and solution encountered in the programs. A comparison of experiences in pilot states will be used to provide guidelines for program implementers, federal agencies, and Congress. 5 refs.

  12. EIS-0026: Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), Carlsbad, New Mexico

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management prepared this EIS for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.

  13. Institute for Renewable Energy Ltd Preparation of a pilot biogas CHP plant integrated with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Institute for Renewable Energy Ltd Poland 1 Preparation of a pilot biogas CHP plant integrated Planning issues Transport companies District Heating Sustainable communities Utilities Solar energy User with a wood-chip fired DHP system Institute for Renewable Energy Ltd, Poland Summary The project focused

  14. Chemistry research and development. Progress report, December 1978-May 1979. [Component, pilot plant, instrumentation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miner, F. J.

    1980-06-30

    Progress and activities are reported on component development, pilot plant development, and instrumentation and statistical systems. Specific items studied include processing of pond sludge, transport of radioactive materials and wastes, corrosion, decontamination and cleaning, fluidized-bed incineration, Pu contamination of soils, chemical analysis, radiometric analysis, security. (DLC)

  15. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  16. Nonlinear Dynamics, Magnitude-Period Formula and Forecasts on Earthquake

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yi-Fang Chang

    2008-02-02

    Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum. From the nonlinear equations of fluid mechanics, a simplified nonlinear solution of momentum corresponding the accumulation of the energy could be derived. Otherwise, a chaos equation could be obtained, in which chaos corresponds to the earthquake, which shows complexity on seismology, and impossibility of exact prediction of earthquakes. But, combining the Carlson-Langer model and the Gutenberg-Richter relation, the magnitude-period formula of the earthquake may be derived approximately, and some results can be calculated quantitatively. For example, we forecast a series of earthquakes of 2004, 2009 and 2014, especially in 2019 in California. Combining the Lorenz model, we discuss the earthquake migration to and fro. Moreover, many external causes for earthquake are merely the initial conditions of this nonlinear system.

  17. Energy dispatch schedule optimization and cost benefit analysis for grid-connected, photovoltaic-battery storage systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nottrott, A.; Kleissl, J.; Washom, B.

    2013-01-01

    PV systems using storage and controls, Solar Energy 81(7) (of solar and load forecasting in demand side energy storageEnergy storage, Forecasting, Optimal scheduling, Solar power

  18. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  19. High Temperature Calcination - MACT Upgrade Equipment Pilot Plant Test

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richard D. Boardman; B. H. O'Brien; N. R. Soelberg; S. O. Bates; R. A. Wood; C. St. Michel

    2004-02-01

    About one million gallons of acidic, hazardous, and radioactive sodium-bearing waste are stored in stainless steel tanks at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC), which is a major operating facility of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Calcination at high-temperature conditions (600 C, with alumina nitrate and calcium nitrate chemical addition to the feed) is one of four options currently being considered by the Department of Energy for treatment of the remaining tank wastes. If calcination is selected for future processing of the sodium-bearing waste, it will be necessary to install new off-gas control equipment in the New Waste Calcining Facility (NWCF) to comply with the Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) standards for hazardous waste combustors and incinerators. This will require, as a minimum, installing a carbon bed to reduce mercury emissions from their current level of up to 7,500 to <45 {micro}g/dscm, and a staged combustor to reduce unburned kerosene fuel in the off-gas discharge to <100 ppm CO and <10 ppm hydrocarbons. The staged combustor will also reduce NOx concentrations of about 35,000 ppm by 90-95%. A pilot-plant calcination test was completed in a newly constructed 15-cm diameter calciner vessel. The pilot-plant facility was equipped with a prototype MACT off-gas control system, including a highly efficient cyclone separator and off-gas quench/venturi scrubber for particulate removal, a staged combustor for unburned hydrocarbon and NOx destruction, and a packed activated carbon bed for mercury removal and residual chloride capture. Pilot-plant testing was performed during a 50-hour system operability test January 14-16, followed by a 100-hour high-temperature calcination pilot-plant calcination run January 19-23. Two flowsheet blends were tested: a 50-hour test with an aluminum-to-alkali metal molar ratio (AAR) of 2.25, and a 50-hour test with an AAR of 1.75. Results of the testing indicate that sodium-bearing waste can be successfully calcined at 600 C with an AAR of 1.75. Unburned hydrocarbons are reduced to less than 10 ppm (7% O2, dry basis), with >90% reduction of NOx emissions. Mercury removal by the carbon bed reached 99.99%, surpassing the control efficiency needed to meet MACT emissions standards. No deleterious impacts on the carbon bed were observed during the tests. The test results imply that upgrading the NWCF calciner with a more efficient cyclone separator and the proposed MACT equipment can process the remaining tanks wastes in 3 years or less, and comply with the MACT standards.

  20. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  3. Argonne National Laboratory's Recycling Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Spangenberger, Jeff; Jody, Sam;

    2009-01-01

    Argonne has a Recycling Pilot Plant designed to save the non-metal portions of junked cars. Here, program managers demonstrate how plastic shredder residue can be recycled. (Currently these automotive leftovers are sent to landfills.) For more information, visit Argonne's Transportation Technology R&D Center Web site at http://www.transportation.anl.gov.

  4. Thermochemical Conversion Pilot Plant (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2013-06-01

    The state-of-the-art thermochemical conversion pilot plant includes several configurable, complementary unit operations for testing and developing various reactors, filters, catalysts, and other unit operations. NREL engineers and scientists as well as clients can test new processes and feedstocks in a timely, cost-effective, and safe manner to obtain extensive performance data on processes or equipment.

  5. Argonne National Laboratory's Recycling Pilot Plant

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Spangenberger, Jeff; Jody, Sam;

    2013-04-19

    Argonne has a Recycling Pilot Plant designed to save the non-metal portions of junked cars. Here, program managers demonstrate how plastic shredder residue can be recycled. (Currently these automotive leftovers are sent to landfills.) For more information, visit Argonne's Transportation Technology R&D Center Web site at http://www.transportation.anl.gov.

  6. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  7. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  8. Pilot Testing of Commercial Refrigeration-Based Demand Response

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hirsch, Adam; Clark, Jordan; Deru, Michael; Trenbath, Kim; Doebber, Ian; Studer, Daniel

    2015-10-08

    Supermarkets potentially offer a substantial demand response (DR) resource because of their high energy intensity and use patterns. This report describes a pilot project conducted to better estimate supermarket DR potential. Previous work has analyzed supermarket DR using heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), lighting, and anti-condensate heaters. This project was concerned with evaluating DR using the refrigeration system and quantifying the DR potential inherent in supermarket refrigeration systems. Ancillary aims of the project were to identify practical barriers to the implementation of DR programs in supermarkets and to determine which high-level control strategies were most appropriate for achieving certain DR objectives. The scope of this project does not include detailed control strategy development for DR or development of a strategy for regional implementation of DR in supermarkets.

  9. Field Testing of a Wet FGD Additive for Enhanced Mercury Control - Pilot-Scale Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gary M. Blythe

    2006-03-01

    This Topical Report summarizes progress on Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-04NT42309, ''Field Testing of a Wet FGD Additive.'' The objective of the project is to demonstrate the use of a flue gas desulfurization (FGD) additive, Degussa Corporation's TMT-15, to prevent the reemissions of elemental mercury (Hg{sup 0}) in flue gas exiting wet FGD systems on coal-fired boilers. Furthermore, the project intends to demonstrate that the additive can be used to precipitate most of the mercury (Hg) removed in the wet FGD system as a fine TMT salt that can be separated from the FGD liquor and bulk solid byproducts for separate disposal. The project will conduct pilot and full-scale tests of the TMT-15 additive in wet FGD absorbers. The tests are intended to determine required additive dosage requirements to prevent Hg{sup 0} reemissions and to separate mercury from the normal FGD byproducts for three coal types: Texas lignite/Power River Basin (PRB) coal blend, high-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal, and low-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal. The project team consists of URS Group, Inc., EPRI, TXU Generation Company LP, Southern Company, and Degussa Corporation. TXU Generation has provided the Texas lignite/PRB co-fired test site for pilot FGD tests, Monticello Steam Electric Station Unit 3. Southern Company is providing the low-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal host site for wet scrubbing tests, as well as the pilot and full-scale jet bubbling reactor (JBR) FGD systems to be tested. A third utility, to be named later, will provide the high-sulfur Eastern bituminous coal full-scale FGD test site. Degussa Corporation is providing the TMT-15 additive and technical support to the test program. The project is being conducted in six tasks. Of the six project tasks, Task 1 involves project planning and Task 6 involves management and reporting. The other four tasks involve field testing on FGD systems, either at pilot or full scale. The four tasks include: Task 2 - Pilot Additive Testing in Texas Lignite Flue Gas; Task 3 - Full-scale FGD Additive Testing in High Sulfur Eastern Bituminous Flue Gas; Task 4 - Pilot Wet Scrubber Additive Tests at Yates; and Task 5 - Full-scale Additive Tests at Plant Yates. This topical report presents the results from the Task 2 and Task 4 pilot-scale additive tests. The Task 3 and Task 5 full-scale additive tests will be conducted later in calendar year 2006.

  10. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  11. Prospects for pilot plants based on the tokamak, spherical tokamak and stellarator.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Menard, J. E. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Bromberg, L. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown, T. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Burgess, Thomas W [ORNL; Dix, D. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciene, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; El-GuebalyUniv. Wisco, L. [University of Wisconsin; Gerrity, T. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Goldston, R. J. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Hawryluk, R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Kastner, R. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciene, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Kessel, C. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Malang, S. [Fusion Nuclear Technology Consulting, Germany; Minervini, J. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Neilson, G. H. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Neumeyer, C. L. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Prager, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL); Sawan, M. [University of Wisconsin; Sheffield, J. [Inistitute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA; Sternlieb, A. [Israel Ministry of Defense, Tel Aviv, Israel; Waganer, L. [Consultant; Whyte, D. G. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Zarnstorff, M. C. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL)

    2011-01-01

    A potentially attractive next-step towards fusion commercialization is a pilot plant, i.e. a device ultimately capable of small net electricity production in as compact a facility as possible and in a configuration scalable to a full-size power plant. A key capability for a pilot-plant programme is the production of high neutron fluence enabling fusion nuclear science and technology (FNST) research. It is found that for physics and technology assumptions between those assumed for ITER and nth-of-a-kind fusion power plant, it is possible to provide FNST-relevant neutron wall loading in pilot devices. Thus, it may be possible to utilize a single facility to perform FNST research utilizing reactor-relevant plasma, blanket, coil and auxiliary systems and maintenance schemes while also targeting net electricity production. In this paper three configurations for a pilot plant are considered: the advanced tokamak, spherical tokamak and compact stellarator. A range of configuration issues is considered including: radial build and blanket design, magnet systems, maintenance schemes, tritium consumption and self-sufficiency, physics scenarios and a brief assessment of research needs for the configurations.

  12. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  13. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  14. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore »the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  15. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  17. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  18. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  19. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  20. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  1. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  2. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  3. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  4. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  5. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  6. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  7. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  8. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  9. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  10. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  11. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  12. Enabling Sustainable Acquisiton by Improving Procurement Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2012-08-01

    Case study details the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant process to improve to its procurement system and its increase sustainable acquisitions.

  13. Atlanta Central UESC Pilot Project

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Upgrade - VFD on Pumps 30,151 14 0 0 3,874 0 Heating System Upgrade - Replace Electric Boiler & Pumps 175,063 192 (6,087) 0 36,272 1,667 DDC Controls & Optimization 9,435 15...

  14. Plan for the Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mass, Clifford F.

    by the High Performance Computing Modernization Program. Phase I will produce one of the DDC project

  15. Forecast-driven tactical planning models for manufacturing systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chhaochhria, Pallav

    2011-01-01

    Our work is motivated by real-world planning challenges faced by a manufacturer of industrial products. In the first part of the thesis, we study a multi-product serial-flow production line that operates in a low-volume, ...

  16. OpenEI Community - Microturbine Systems Market Forecast

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QAsource History ViewMayo, Maryland:NPI VenturesNewSt.Information OlindaOnslow County,OpTICOpenBarter Jump

  17. Microturbine Systems Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIXsource HistoryScenariosMarysvilleMicrogravity-Hybrid Microgravity

  18. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  19. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  20. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (2004) 14911497 Sun-to-magnetosphere modeling: CISM forecast model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2004-01-01

    -to-magnetosphere modeling: CISM forecast model development using linked empirical methods D.N. Bakera,Ă, R.S. Weigela , E Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is to provide linked end-to- end models of the connected Sun­Earth system. It is envisioned that the ultimate product of the CISM effort will be a single, physics-based (i.e., ``forward