National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for forecast separate supply

  1. Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hilmola, Olli-Pekka

    Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and ...

  2. Skill evaluation of water supply forecasts in western Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basins

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harrison, Brent

    2014-01-01

    streamflow predictions for water supply forecasting in theAn assessment of seasonal water supply outlooks in thepaper, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of

  3. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01

    Board's financial resource needs. Thus, the corn supply forecasts are important information used by the government for contingency planning, decision-making, policy-formulation and implementation. As such, the need for accurate forecasts is obvious...

  4. How USDA Forecasts Production and Supply/Demand 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, David P.; O'Brien, Daniel; Welch, Mark

    2009-06-01

    USDA publishes crop supply and demand estimates for each month. Producers, merchandisers, processors, traders and other market participants rely on this information when making their buying and selling decisions. This leaflet explains how USDA makes...

  5. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  6. Reverse supply chain forecasting and decision modeling for improved inventory management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Petersen, Brian J. (Brian Jude)

    2013-01-01

    This thesis details research performed during a six-month engagement with Verizon Wireless (VzW) in the latter half of 2012. The key outcomes are a forecasting model and decision-support framework to improve management of ...

  7. The addition of a US Rare Earth Element (REE) supply-demand model improves the characterization and scope of the United States Department of Energy's effort to forecast US REE Supply and Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mancco, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a new US Rare Earth Element (REE) Supply-Demand Model for the explicit forecast of US REE supply and demand in the 2010 to 2025 time period. In the 2010 Department of Energy (DOE) ...

  8. The international fuels report. Supply/price trends and forecasts, 1988

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Swain, C.

    1988-01-01

    This survey of the principal developments in major world energy markets reviews key issues in supply and demand, presents expert opinions on likely developments in the coming year, analyzes pricing prospects, examines world energy requirements, and discusses the outlook for energy consumers and suppliers. Particular emphasis is placed on OECD countries and principal energy suppliers. Tables and graphs of principal energy indicators using the latest available information are included throughout. Providing current data on OPEC price policy and the level of production in the main areas of fossil versus alternative energy sources, this book is a practical planning tool.

  9. Coal supply/demand, 1980 to 2000. Task 3. Resource applications industrialization system data base. Final review draft. [USA; forecasting 1980 to 2000; sector and regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fournier, W.M.; Hasson, V.

    1980-10-10

    This report is a compilation of data and forecasts resulting from an analysis of the coal market and the factors influencing supply and demand. The analyses performed for the forecasts were made on an end-use-sector basis. The sectors analyzed are electric utility, industry demand for steam coal, industry demand for metallurgical coal, residential/commercial, coal demand for synfuel production, and exports. The purpose is to provide coal production and consumption forecasts that can be used to perform detailed, railroad company-specific coal transportation analyses. To make the data applicable for the subsequent transportation analyses, the forecasts have been made for each end-use sector on a regional basis. The supply regions are: Appalachia, East Interior, West Interior and Gulf, Northern Great Plains, and Mountain. The demand regions are the same as the nine Census Bureau regions. Coal production and consumption in the United States are projected to increase dramatically in the next 20 years due to increasing requirements for energy and the unavailability of other sources of energy to supply a substantial portion of this increase. Coal comprises 85 percent of the US recoverable fossil energy reserves and could be mined to supply the increasing energy demands of the US. The NTPSC study found that the additional traffic demands by 1985 may be met by the railways by the way of improved signalization, shorter block sections, centralized traffic control, and other modernization methods without providing for heavy line capacity works. But by 2000 the incremental traffic on some of the major corridors was projected to increase very significantly and is likely to call for special line capacity works involving heavy investment.

  10. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  11. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURINGEnergyPlan | Department ofSUPPLEMENT NOVEMBER 2015Supplemental VolumeMatthew

  12. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komiyama, Ryoichi

    2010-01-01

    Framework Energy supply/demand forecasts change greatlyThis analysis makes energy supply/demand forecasts for theEnergy Demand (Reference Scenario) In millions of tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) I l f Results* •Forecasts *

  13. SU-E-J-102: Separation of Metabolic Supply and Demand: From Power Grid Economics to Cancer Metabolism

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Epstein, T; Xu, L; Gillies, R; Gatenby, R

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To study a new model of glucose metabolism which is primarily governed by the timescale of the energetic demand and not by the oxygen level, and its implication on cancer metabolism (Warburg effect) Methods: 1) Metabolic profiling of membrane transporters activity in several cell lines, which represent the spectrum from normal breast epithelium to aggressive, metastatic cancer, using Seahorse XF reader.2) Spatial localization of oxidative and non-oxidative metabolic components using immunocytochemical imaging of the glycolytic ATP-producing enzyme, pyruvate kinase and mitochondria. 3) Finite element simulations of coupled partial differential equations using COMSOL and MATLAB. Results: Inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in aerobic glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. These results were consistent with computational simulations of changes in short-timescale demand for energy by cell membrane processes. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. These predictions were confirmed experimentally. Conclusion: The results in this work support a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Similar to power grid economics, optimal metabolic control requires the two pathways, even in normoxic conditions, to match two different types of energy demands. Cells use aerobic metabolism to meet baseline, steady energy demand and glycolytic metabolism to meet short-timescale energy demands, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This model provides a mechanism for the origin of the Warburg effect in cancer cells. Here, the Warburg effect emerges during carcinogenesis is a physiological response to an increase in energy demands from membrane transporters, required for cell division, growth, and migration. This work is supported by the NIH Physical Sciences in Oncology Center grant 1U54CA143970-03 and NIH R01 CA077575-10.

  14. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  15. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  16. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    /demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Manager Bill Junker Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

  18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive

  19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P

  1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS

  2. Solar Forecasting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  3. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  4. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012

  5. Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petty, S.; Porro, G.

    2007-03-01

    This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.

  6. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  7. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  8. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National...

  9. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  10. Weather Forecasting Spring 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    ATMS 350 Weather Forecasting Spring 2014 Professor : Dr. Chris Hennon Office : RRO 236C Phone : 232 of atmospheric physics and the ability to include this understanding into modern numerical weather prediction agencies, forecast tools, numerical weather prediction models, model output statistics, ensemble

  11. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ....................................................................................................1-16 Energy Consumption Data...............................................1-15 Data Sources for Energy Demand Forecasting ModelsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report

  12. Tiree Energy Pulse: Exploring Renewable Energy Forecasts on the Edge of the Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    Tiree Energy Pulse: Exploring Renewable Energy Forecasts on the Edge of the Grid Will Simm1 , Maria energy consumption with supply, and together built a prototype renewable energy forecast display. A num local renewable energy was expected to be available, despite having no financial in- centive to do so

  13. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  14. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  15. Solar Forecast Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more...

  16. Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavaei, Javad

    Power Forecasting for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Statistic Simulations Guangbin Li (gl2423) #12 of the most heated-discussed issues. Energy shortage and environment pollution are the main bottleneck the tradeoff between energy supply and environment pollution. As the international oil price was continuously

  17. Centrifugal separators and related devices and methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Meikrantz, David H. (Idaho Falls, ID); Law, Jack D. (Pocatello, ID); Garn, Troy G. (Idaho Falls, ID); Macaluso, Lawrence L. (Carson City, NV); Todd, Terry A. (Aberdeen, ID)

    2012-03-06

    Centrifugal separators and related methods and devices are described. More particularly, centrifugal separators comprising a first fluid supply fitting configured to deliver fluid into a longitudinal fluid passage of a rotor shaft and a second fluid supply fitting sized and configured to sealingly couple with the first fluid supply fitting are described. Also, centrifugal separator systems comprising a manifold having a drain fitting and a cleaning fluid supply fitting are described, wherein the manifold is coupled to a movable member of a support assembly. Additionally, methods of cleaning centrifugal separators are described.

  18. Power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Yakymyshyn, Christopher Paul (Seminole, FL); Hamilton, Pamela Jane (Seminole, FL); Brubaker, Michael Allen (Loveland, CO)

    2007-12-04

    A modular, low weight impedance dropping power supply with battery backup is disclosed that can be connected to a high voltage AC source and provide electrical power at a lower voltage. The design can be scaled over a wide range of input voltages and over a wide range of output voltages and delivered power.

  19. Improving automotive battery sales forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bulusu, Vinod

    2015-01-01

    Improvement in sales forecasting allows firms not only to respond quickly to customers' needs but also to reduce inventory costs, ultimately increasing their profits. Sales forecasts have been studied extensively to improve ...

  20. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  1. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors

  2. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  3. Trends in Gulf Coast Power Supply, Demand, and Costs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Posey, L. G., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    load and peak load requirements are supplied by fuel oil, gas, and, where available, hydroelectric genera tors. Fuel Cost Forecast Three sources of information provide data to forecast fuel costs for each utility: ? Fuel contracts between... offsets are required for both NMHC and S02' These offsets are regarded as scarce corporate resources by the industries already operating in the area. They will be used carefUlly to optimize industrial growth with the least expensive offsets used first...

  4. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutledge, Steven

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary microbursts than in many previously documented microbursts. Alignment of Doppler radar data to reports of wind-related damage to electrical power infrastructure in Phoenix allowed a comparison of microburst wind damage

  5. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  6. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  7. Opportunities for LNG supply infrastructure and demand growth in US and International markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Connell, Richard Perry

    2004-01-01

    Countries are looking beyond their borders for options to satiate a forecasted increase in natural gas consumption. A strong option for importing natural gas is by way of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain where ...

  8. Why Supply Chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2000-01-01

    Why supply chain explains the importance of supply chains. It includes an introduction to ERP as designed by SAP.

  9. Ultracapacitor separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wei, Chang (Niskayuna, NY); Jerabek, Elihu Calvin (Glenmont, NY); LeBlanc, Jr., Oliver Harris (Schenectady, NY)

    2001-03-06

    An ultracapacitor includes two solid, nonporous current collectors, two porous electrodes separating the collectors, a porous separator between the electrodes and an electrolyte occupying the pores in the electrodes and separator. The electrolyte is a polar aprotic organic solvent and a salt. The porous separator comprises a wet laid cellulosic material.

  10. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  11. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  12. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power AdministrationRobust,Field-effectWorking WithTelecentricNCubicthe FOIA?ResourceMeasurement BuoyForecasting Sign

  13. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    s economy. Demand Forecasts The three energy futures wereto meet the forecast demand in each energy futurE2. e e1£~energy saved through improved appliance efficiencies. Also icit in our demand forecasts

  14. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  15. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  16. Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

    2007-01-01

    Economy, 95(5), 1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri,Notion of Quantiles for Multivariate Data,” Journal of thePress, United Kingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner,

  17. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  18. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  20. NNSA TRITIUM SUPPLY CHAIN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wyrick, Steven; Cordaro, Joseph; Founds, Nanette; Chambellan, Curtis

    2013-08-21

    Savannah River Site plays a critical role in the Tritium Production Supply Chain for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The entire process includes: • Production of Tritium Producing Burnable Absorber Rods (TPBARs) at the Westinghouse WesDyne Nuclear Fuels Plant in Columbia, South Carolina • Production of unobligated Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) at the United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC) in Portsmouth, Ohio • Irradiation of TPBARs with the LEU at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Watts Bar Reactor • Extraction of tritium from the irradiated TPBARs at the Tritium Extraction Facility (TEF) at Savannah River Site • Processing the tritium at the Savannah River Site, which includes removal of nonhydrogen species and separation of the hydrogen isotopes of protium, deuterium and tritium.

  1. Magnets and Power Supplies

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Up: APS Storage Ring Parameters Previous: Longitudinal bunch profile and Magnets and Power Supplies Dipole Magnets and Power Supplies Value Dipole Number 80+1 No. of power...

  2. Sandia Energy - Manufacturing Supply Chain

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Manufacturing Supply Chain Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Wind Energy Materials, Reliability, & Standards Manufacturing Supply Chain Manufacturing Supply...

  3. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  4. Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2005-03-01

    Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

  5. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study...

  7. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US.2013: Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and asatellite-derived irradiances: Description and validation.

  8. Feedstock Supply System Logistics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2006-06-01

    Feedstock supply is a significant cost component in the production of biobased fuels, products, and power. The uncertainty of the biomass feedstock supply chain and associated risks are major barriers to procuring capital funding for start-up biorefineries.

  9. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  10. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  11. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  12. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

  13. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    income 7 Figure 1.14: United States inflation Rate 8 Figure 1.15: Select United States interest Rates 8 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTiVE SUMMARY 1 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY 3 Recent Trends Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

  14. Modeling and Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak loads up to one week ahead through, including generator unit commitment, hydro-thermal coordination, short-term maintenance, fuel allocation forecasting accuracies. STLF forecasting covers the daily peak load, total daily energy, and daily load curve

  15. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  16. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    basis of data from the Energy Supply Planning Model [9] andeconomic resources will energy supply system. r role in diconstructed an integrated energy supply~demand November 18,

  17. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J in phenology. Keywords: climate change; East Asia, global warming; growing season, hierarchical Bayes; plant is shifting, and these shifts have been linked to recent global warming (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Root et al

  18. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  19. Gas separating

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gollan, Arye Z.

    1990-12-25

    Feed gas is directed tangentially along the non-skin surface of gas separation membrane modules comprising a cylindrical bundle of parallel contiguous hollow fibers supported to allow feed gas to flow from an inlet at one end of a cylindrical housing through the bores of the bundled fibers to an outlet at the other end while a component of the feed gas permeates through the fibers, each having the skin side on the outside, through a permeate outlet in the cylindrical casing.

  20. Gas separating

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gollan, Arye (Newton, MA)

    1988-01-01

    Feed gas is directed tangentially along the non-skin surface of gas separation membrane modules comprising a cylindrical bundle of parallel contiguous hollow fibers supported to allow feed gas to flow from an inlet at one end of a cylindrical housing through the bores of the bundled fibers to an outlet at the other end while a component of the feed gas permeates through the fibers, each having the skin side on the outside, through a permeate outlet in the cylindrical casing.

  1. Separation system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rubin, Leslie S. (Newton, MA)

    1986-01-01

    A separation system for dewatering radioactive waste materials includes a disposal container, drive structure for receiving the container, and means for releasably attaching the container to the drive structure. Separation structure disposed in the container adjacent the inner surface of the side wall structure retains solids while allowing passage of liquids. Inlet port structure in the container top wall is normally closed by first valve structure that is centrifugally actuated to open the inlet port and discharge port structure at the container periphery receives liquid that passes through the separation structure and is normally closed by second valve structure that is centrifugally actuated to open the discharge ports. The container also includes coupling structure for releasable engagement with the centrifugal drive structure. Centrifugal force produced when the container is driven in rotation by the drive structure opens the valve structures, and radioactive waste material introduced into the container through the open inlet port is dewatered, and the waste is compacted. The ports are automatically closed by the valves when the container drum is not subjected to centrifugal force such that containment effectiveness is enhanced and exposure of personnel to radioactive materials is minimized.

  2. Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    Accuracy of published data in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Petroleum Supply Monthly, and the Petroleum Supply Annual.

  3. Gas separating

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gollan, A.Z.

    1990-12-25

    Feed gas is directed tangentially along the non-skin surface of gas separation membrane modules comprising a cylindrical bundle of parallel contiguous hollow fibers supported to allow feed gas to flow from an inlet at one end of a cylindrical housing through the bores of the bundled fibers to an outlet at the other end while a component of the feed gas permeates through the fibers, each having the skin side on the outside, through a permeate outlet in the cylindrical casing. 3 figs.

  4. Gas separating

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Gollan, A.

    1988-03-29

    Feed gas is directed tangentially along the non-skin surface of gas separation membrane modules comprising a cylindrical bundle of parallel contiguous hollow fibers supported to allow feed gas to flow from an inlet at one end of a cylindrical housing through the bores of the bundled fibers to an outlet at the other end while a component of the feed gas permeates through the fibers, each having the skin side on the outside, through a permeate outlet in the cylindrical casing. 3 figs.

  5. Supply Management Specialist

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This position is located in the Logistics Management organization (NSL), Supply Chain Services (NS), Chief Administrative Office (N). NSL manages the warehousing of materials; the investment...

  6. Forecasting wind speed financial return

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

  7. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16

    and encouragement. I am very grateful to Lucille and Michael Hobbs for their friendship, understanding and financial support. Finally, thank you to Tom Decker, Pat Jackson and Brian Zellar for all their contributions and hard work on this project... below: 1. Na?ve 2. Linear Regression 3. Moving Average 4. Exponential 5. Double exponential The na?ve forecasting method assumes that more recent data values are the best predictors of future values. The model is ? t+1 = Y t . Where ? t...

  8. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    models to simulate and forecast wind speed and wind power.proba- bilistic wind power forecasts. accepted Transactionsload plus 5% of hourly forecast wind power. We set this as

  9. Money, Prices and Liquidity Effects: Separating Demand from Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chadha, Jagjit S.; Corrado, Luisa; Sun, Qi

    : Money, Prices, Bayesian VAR Identi?cation, Sign Restrictions. ?Acknowledgements: We are grateful for constructive comments from colleagues and seminar participants at the SCE conference at the Sorbonne in June 2008. This paper is part of a project... residuals, uj;t, as: uj;t = A"j;t; (17) where A is a 2 ? 2 matrix. The main point is that by identifying A we can automatically recover the structural shocks "j;t: An equivalent formulation for (17) is: ?t = E(uj;tu 0 j;t) = AE("j;t" 0 j;t)A 0; (18) where ?t...

  10. The Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    In countries showing high wind energy shares in the elec- trical power supply grid, a "wind power weatherThe Quality of a 48-Hours Wind Power Forecast Using the German and Danish Weather Prediction Model Laboratory, P.O. box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Tel/Fax: +45 4677 5095 / 5970 Gregor.Giebel@Risoe.DK Wind power

  11. A Framework of Short-Term Activity-Aware Load Forecasting Yong Ding, Martin Neumann and Michael Beigl

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Beigl, Michael

    the best use of electric energy and relieve the conflict between supply and demand [Niu et al., 2010]. However, inaccurate load forecasts will lead to not only monetary losses but also grid security losses), such as weather factors, climatic conditions, social activi- ties, and seasonal factors, past usage patterns

  12. Supply chain planning decisions under demand uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Yanfeng Anna

    2008-01-01

    Sales and operational planning that incorporates unconstrained demand forecasts has been expected to improve long term corporate profitability. Companies are considering such unconstrained demand forecasts in their decisions ...

  13. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  14. Low pressure hydrocyclone separator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Flanigan, D.A.; Stolhand, J.E.

    1989-07-04

    This patent describes a method of separating a dispersed phase liquid from a bulk phase liquid of a liquid-liquid mixture, the dispersed phase and bulk phase liquids having different densities. The method comprises the steps of: providing a supply of the liquid-liquid mixture at a first pressure; providing a pump means including means for minimizing degradation of the volumetric means size of droplets of the dispersed phase further including a pump size for maintaining the pump means at substantially near maximum flow rate capacity; pumping the liquid-liquid mixture with at least one pump means to a second pressure such that a differential between the first and second pressures is not substantially greater than a differential pressure at which the pump means begins to substantially degrade the volumetric mean size of droplets of the dispersed phase liquid passing therethrough, the pumping without substantial droplet degradation being achieved by operating the pump means at relatively near its maximum flow rate capacity to substantially reduce on a percentage basis the effect of fluid slippage within the pump means; directing the liquid-liquid mixture from the pump means to a hydrocyclone; and separating a substantial portion of the dispersed phase liquid from the liquid-liquid mixture in the hydrocyclone.

  15. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens to the Klim wind farm using three WPPT forecasts based on different weather forecasting systems. It is shown of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  16. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rayner, Steve; Lach, Denise; Ingram, Helen

    2005-01-01

    and Winter, S. G. : 1960, Weather Information and EconomicThe ENSO Signal 7, 4–6. WEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPSWEATHER FORECASTS ARE FOR WIMPS ? : WHY WATER RESOURCE

  17. Automating power supply checkout

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laster, J.; Bruno, D.; D'Ottavio, T.; Drozd, J.; Marr, G.; Mi, C.

    2011-03-28

    Power Supply checkout is a necessary, pre-beam, time-critical function. At odds are the desire to decrease the amount of time to perform the checkout while at the same time maximizing the number and types of checks that can be performed and analyzing the results quickly (in case any problems exist that must be addressed). Controls and Power Supply Group personnel have worked together to develop tools to accomplish these goals. Power Supply checkouts are now accomplished in a time-frame of hours rather than days, reducing the number of person-hours needed to accomplish the checkout and making the system available more quickly for beam development. The goal of the Collider-Accelerator Department (CAD) at Brookhaven National Laboratory is to provide experimenters with collisions of heavy-ions and polarized protons. The Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider (RHIC) magnets are controlled by 100's of varying types of power supplies. There is a concentrated effort to perform routine maintenance on the supplies during shutdown periods. There is an effort at RHIC to streamline the time needed for system checkout in order to quickly arrive at a period of beam operations for RHIC. This time-critical period is when the checkout of the power supplies is performed as the RHIC ring becomes cold and the supplies are connected to their physical magnets. The checkout process is used to identify problems in voltage and current regulation by examining data signals related to each for problems in settling and regulation (ripple).

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  19. The Preservation of Physical Fashion Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kosztowny, Alexander John

    2015-01-01

    schools and their libraries, which use trend forecastingin archives and libraries would be that the trend forecastsin a library or archive, not exclusively to trend forecasts.

  20. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    R&D translates into improved performance and reduced costs for energy technologies. Motivation Technological forecasts, which plot the anticipated performance and costs of...

  1. Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koottatep, Pakawkul

    2006-01-01

    Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal ...

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    that take place in complex terrain, this funding opportunity will improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  3. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve foundational weather models by developing short-term wind forecasts for use by industry professionals,...

  4. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the electricity price forecast. This resource mix is used to forecast the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power Plan. This forecast is an estimate of the future price of electricity

  6. 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenslade, Diana

    SHEET 6 1Bureau of Meteorology | Water Information > INFORMATION SHEET 6 > Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Flood Forecasting and Warning Services The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing an effective flood forecasting and warning service in each Australian state

  7. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

  8. European supply chain study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Puri, Mohitkumar

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Supply chain management has been defined as, "..a set of approaches utilized to efficiently integrate suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and stores, so that merchandise is produced and distributed at the ...

  9. Supply chain dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbosa, Ricardo Wagner Lopes, 1976-

    2003-01-01

    The strong bargaining power of major retailers and the higher requirements for speed, service excellence and customization have significantly contributed to transform the Supply Chain Management. These increasing challenges ...

  10. Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing Nagurney, Li, and Nagurney Pharmaceutical) Li1, Ladimer S. Nagurney2 1 - Department of Operations and Information Management Isenberg School of Management University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 2 - Department of Electrical and Computer

  11. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantityBonneville Power Administration wouldMass map shines lightGeospatial ToolkitSMARTS -BeingFuture forForecasting NREL researchers

  12. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on QA:QA J-E-1 SECTION J APPENDIX E LISTStar2-0057-EA Jump to:ofEnia SpAFlex Fuels Energy JumpVyncke Jump to:Forecast

  13. Supply Curves of Conserved Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meier, Alan Kevin

    1982-01-01

    used for comparable energy supply projects. This perspectivetypically lower on the energy supply side than on the demanda r e invested i n the energy-supply s e c t o r . 41 There

  14. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Parsons, Simon

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions

  15. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  16. Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts VERONICA ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at indi- vidual perturbation (GOP) method, and extends BMA to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts of whole weather

  17. Risk Management in Biopharmaceutical Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Yao

    2011-01-01

    Supply Chain Risk Managementof Recent Work on Supply Chain Risk Management . . . . .M. , Supply chain risk management: Outlining an agenda for

  18. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  19. INTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , discourse and semantic. They are based on a conceptual model underlying weather forecasts as well situations represented in the form of texts in NL, weather maps, data tables or combined information objectsINTELLIGENT HANDLING OF WEATHER FORECASTS Stephan Kerpedjiev I n s t i t u t e of Mathematics Acad

  20. Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hart, Sergiu

    Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart October 2015 SERGIU HART c 2015 ­ p. #12;Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, and Finite Recall Sergiu Hart Center for the Study of Rationality Dept of Mathematics Dept of Economics The Hebrew University of Jerusalem hart@huji.ac.il http://www.ma.huji.ac.il/hart

  1. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roberts, Stephen

    Multivariate Time Series Forecasting in Incomplete Environments Technical Report PARG 08-03 Seung of Oxford December 2008 #12;Seung Min Lee and Stephen J. Roberts Technical Report PARG 08-03 Multivariate missing observations and forecasting future values in incomplete multivariate time series data. We study

  2. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author, Guangzhou 510301, China9 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological10, China20 21 22 23 24 Submitted to Weather and Forecasting25 2014. 12. 2826 27 Corresponding author: Dr

  3. Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Richard H.

    Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author Fort Collins, Colorado7 October 20128 (submitted to Weather and Forecasting)9 1 Corresponding author address: Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, HQ Air Force Weather Agency 16th Weather Squadron, 101 Nelson Dr., Offutt

  4. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  5. Petroleum supply monthly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-10-01

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blends, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  6. Petroleum Supply Monthly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  7. Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting: Methods & Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaji, Rajagopalan

    ensemble forecating model using the identified predictors. Model application and validation. This is particularly true in the western US, where it is estimated that 44% of renewable water supplies are consumed outputs such as crop production and the monetary value of hydropower production (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2002

  8. Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li

    2011-03-29

    We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \

  9. ASME PTC 47 - IGCC performance testing: Air separation issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, A.R.

    1998-07-01

    Air separation units have been incorporated into the designs of many gasification combined cycle projects worldwide for the supply of pressurized oxygen and nitrogen. Pressurized gaseous oxygen at a purity usually above 95% by volume is supplied to the gasification unit to partially oxidized a hydrocarbon feed to yield syngas. Nitrogen streams are used for purging and inerting purposes or for the reactor. Several facilities have incorporated integration of air and/or nitrogen streams between the gas turbine and the air separation unit to improve overall facility cost, power output and efficiency. Gasification processes that are based on air as the oxidant source may also require an air separation unit to supply pressurized nitrogen for inerting and dry fuel transport. This paper reports on the progress of PTC 47's air separation subcommittee in defining test measurement boundaries and performance parameter definitions for the testing of an air separation unit as a subsystem of the gasification combined cycle facility.

  10. Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas

    will yield a biased forecast but will continue to have the least variance. On the other hand a forecast based on the sub-sample {yTi , yTi+1, . . . , yT }, where Ti > 1 is likely to have a lower bias but could be inefficient due to a higher variance... approach considered in Pesaran and Timmermann (2007) is to use different sub-windows to forecast and then average the outcomes, either by means of cross-validated weights or by simply using equal weights. To this end consider the sample {yTi , yTi+1...

  11. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  12. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  13. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number weather forecasts and do not take any possible correlation into ac- count. Since wind and wave forecasts

  14. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  15. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both

  16. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  17. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  18. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  19. Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    forecast of 4) Calculate Hourly Load Allocation Factor s for each day for 2019 For use in RA analysis as a function ofthe load for electricity in the region as a function of cyclical, weather and economic variables

  20. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  1. Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gilleland, Eric

    Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

  2. New product forecasting in volatile markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baldwin, Alexander (Alexander Lee)

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting demand for limited-life cycle products is essentially projecting an arc trend of demand growth and decline over a relatively short time horizon. When planning for a new limited-life product, many marketing and ...

  3. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  4. EFFICIENT OXYGEN SEPARATION MEMBRANE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mucina, Ladislav

    EFFICIENT OXYGEN SEPARATION MEMBRANE Summary of technology Oxygen can be separated from air using a uniquely structured ceramic ion transport membrane for oxygen separation thatshowsremarkablyhighflux © Curtin University 2013 Gas diffusion in conventional membrane Gas diffusion in new membrane New membrane

  5. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  6. Biomass Feedstock Supply Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE:FinancingPetroleum Based Fuels Researchof Energy|Make6, 2015 Feedstock Supply and Logistics PI:

  7. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  8. Emergency Food and Water Supplies 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Laanen, Peggy

    1999-05-14

    Creating an emergency supply of food and water, and knowing how to safely handle food and water after a disaster, can reduce stress, worry and inconvenience. This publication provides information on water supply storage and purification...

  9. Protective supplied breathing air garment

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Childers, E.L.; Hortenau, E.F. von.

    1984-07-10

    A breathing air garment is disclosed for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants includes a suit and a separate head protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit rear torso panel permits access into the suit and is sealed with an adhesive sealing flap. 17 figs.

  10. Protective supplied breathing air garment

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Childers, Edward L. (Lakewood, CO); von Hortenau, Erik F. (Golden, CO)

    1984-07-10

    A breathing air garment for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants includes a suit and a separate head protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit rear torso panel permits access into the suit and is sealed with an adhesive sealing flap.

  11. Intra-hour Direct Normal Irradiance solar forecasting using genetic programming

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Queener, Benjamin Daniel

    2012-01-01

    guideline for Solar Power Forecasting Performance . . 46 viof forecasting techniques for solar power production with noand A. Pavlovski, “Solar power forecasting performance

  12. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of the WRF model solar irradiance forecasts in Andalusia (Beyer, H. , 2009.    Irradiance forecasting for the power dependent probabilistic irradiance  forecasts for coastal 

  13. InterplanetarySupply Chain Management &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Weck, Olivier L.

    InterplanetarySupply Chain Management & LogisticsArchitectures 2005-2007 MIT JPL USA PSI InterplanetarySupply Chain Management & LogisticsArchitectures 2005-2007 MIT JPL USA PSI Logistics Lessons Learned in NASA Space Flight Interplanetary Supply Chain Management & Logistics Architectures William A

  14. Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Golden, Kenneth M.

    Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming Forecasts Mathematics Of Ice To Aid Global Warming forecasts of how global warming will affect polar icepacks. See also: Earth & Climate q Global Warming q the effects of climate warming, and its presence greatly reduces solar heating of the polar oceans." "Sea ice

  15. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  16. Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    Goal: Design nodal price and grid congestion forecasting tools for market operators and market Traders To facilitate scenario-conditioned planning Price forecasting for Market Participants (MPs) To manage short for portfolio management by power market participants Conclusion #12;Project OverviewProject Overview Project

  17. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  18. Alternate Water Supply System

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of NaturalDukeWakefield Municipal Gas &SCE-SessionsSouth DakotaRobbins and700, 1. .&. ' ,ALASKAAlternate Water Supply

  19. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01

    zones: transport. Primary energy supply includes the systemsused to supply a primary energy resource to its point ofFor example, if assessing primary energy supply, energy

  20. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    zones: transport. Primary energy supply includes the systemsused to supply a primary energy resource to its point ofFor example, if assessing primary energy supply, energy

  1. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    various fuels and energy supply systems. Acknowledgements WeAssessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems Ryan W.stability of many energy supply regions becomes more

  2. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01

    various fuels and energy supply systems. Acknowledgements WeAssessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems Ryan W.stability of many energy supply regions becomes more

  3. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    of Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.4the model, where renewable energy supply is replaced by itsPhil Kaminsky. Renewable energy supply for electric vehicle

  4. Separation of metal ions from aqueous solutions

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Almon, Amy C. (Augusta, GA)

    1994-01-01

    A process and apparatus for quantitatively and selectively separating metal ions from mixtures thereof in aqueous solution. The apparatus includes, in combination, a horizontal electrochemical flow cell containing flow bulk electrolyte solution and an aqueous, metal ion-containing solution, the cell containing a metal mesh working electrode, a counter electrode positioned downstream from the working electrode, an independent variable power supply/potentiostat positioned outside of the flow cell and connected to the electrodes, and optionally a detector such as a chromatographic detector, positioned outside the flow cell. This apparatus and its operation has significant application where trace amounts of metal ions are to be separated.

  5. Real-Time Pricing- A Flexible Alternative for Electrical Power Supply 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reynolds, S. D.; Frye, A. O. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    place greater emphasis on developing programs that benefit the customer while at the same time benefiting the utility. Economy Surplus Power (ESP) is such a program. ESP offers industrial customers attractively priced power supply arrangements based... at a rate far below what had been forecasted a decade earlier. Sales to large industrial customers were depressed. At the same time TVA faced a temporary surplus of generating capacity. Viewed independently, each <1f these problems has the makings...

  6. The impact of out-of-theater supply flow visibility on in-theater logistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giordano, Michael A. (Michael Anthony)

    2012-01-01

    The United States Army's end-to-end logistical network during times of conflict is made up of two separate networks. One network, managed by the Department of Defense, controls the shipment of supplies from the manufacturing ...

  7. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  8. New directions for forecasting air travel passenger demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garvett, Donald Stephen

    1974-01-01

    While few will disagree that sound forecasts are an essential prerequisite to rational transportation planning and analysis, the making of these forecasts has become a complex problem with the broadening of the scope and ...

  9. Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri

    1 Generalized Cost Function Based Forecasting for Periodically Measured Nonstationary Traffic true value. However, such a forecast- ing function is not directly applicable for applications potentially result in insufficient allocation of bandwidth leading to short term data loss. To facilitate

  10. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  11. Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chevis, Gia Marie

    2004-11-15

    Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...

  12. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting September 12, 2014 - 2:06pm Addthis...

  13. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-01-01

    Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

  14. OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    .................................................................................................................................... 323 II. SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING AND PREDICTION 325 A. Definitions and Concepts....................................................................................................................................... 325 B. Research on Earthquake PredictabilityOPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization Report

  15. Switching power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mihalka, A.M.

    1984-06-05

    The invention is a repratable capacitor charging, switching power supply. A ferrite transformer steps up a dc input. The transformer primary is in a full bridge configuration utilizing power MOSFETs as the bridge switches. The transformer secondary is fed into a high voltage, full wave rectifier whose output is connected directly to the energy storage capacitor. The transformer is designed to provide adequate leakage inductance to limit capacitor current. The MOSFETs are switched to the variable frequency from 20 to 50 kHz to charge a capacitor from 0.6 kV. The peak current in a transformer primary and secondary is controlled by increasing the pulse width as the capacitor charges. A digital ripple counter counts pulses and after a preselected desired number is reached an up-counter is clocked.

  16. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  17. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  18. Supply Chain Networks: Challenges and Opportunities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chains Anna Nagurney Supply Chain Networks #12;Energy Supply Chains Anna Nagurney Supply ChainSupply Chain Networks: Challenges and Opportunities from Analysis to Design Anna Nagurney Isenberg on Computational Management Science Vienna, Austria July 28-30, 2010 Anna Nagurney Supply Chain Networks #12

  19. Supply Chain Networks: Challenges and Opportunities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chains Anna Nagurney Supply Chain Networks #12;Energy Supply Chains Anna Nagurney Supply ChainSupply Chain Networks: Challenges and Opportunities from Analysis to Design Anna Nagurney Isenberg November 23, 2010 Anna Nagurney Supply Chain Networks #12;Acknowledgments I would like to thank Dr. Les

  20. Actinide separations conference

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    This report contains the abstracts for 55 presentations given at the fourteenth annual Actinide Separations Conference. (JDL)

  1. Managerial Career Concerns and Earnings Forecasts SARAH SHAIKH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tipple, Brett

    's aversion to risk, I find that a CEO is less likely to issue an earnings forecast in periods of stricter non is more pronounced for a CEO who has greater concern for his reputation, faces more risk in forecasting the provision of earnings forecasts. Literature has long recognized that the labor market provides distinct

  2. Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McBurney, Peter

    Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica­ tions Services. 1 #12

  3. Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hsieh, William

    Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures Aiming Wu, William W Tang Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA Neural Networks (in press) December 11, 2005 title: Forecast of sea surface temperature 1 #12;Neural Network forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea

  4. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co Paulina Jaramillo Doctor Paul Fischbeck 2012 #12;ii #12;iii Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information

  5. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind

  6. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg in irradiance forecasting have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius and Cotton, 1981), when or progress with respect to the development of solar irradiance forecasting methods. Heck and Takle (1987

  7. Choosing Words in Computer-Generated Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    to communicate numeric weather data. A corpus-based analysis of how humans write forecasts showed that there wereTime- Mousam weather-forecast generator to use consistent data-to-word rules, which avoided words which were weather forecast texts from numerical weather pre- diction data (SumTime-Mousam in fact is used

  8. Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. MCLEAN 2011, in final form 26 May 2012) ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasts of wind vectors are becoming critical with univariate quantities, statistical approaches to wind vector forecasting must be based on bivariate

  9. Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Wind power forecast data observed wind power input (2004 ­ 2006

  10. Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc in the context of wind power, where under- forecasting and overforecasting carry different financial penal- ties, calibrated and sharp probabilistic forecasts can help to make wind power a more financially competitive alter

  11. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines@mines.edu ABSTRACT Forecasting the occupancy of buildings can lead to signif- icant improvement of smart heating throughout a building, we perform data mining to forecast occupancy a short time (i.e., up to 60 minutes

  12. Weather Forecasting -Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting - Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, "weather forecasts" are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the effec- tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  13. Weather Forecasting Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Claypool, Mark

    Weather Forecasting ­ Predicting Performance for Streaming Video over Wireless LANs Mingzhe Li, ``weather forecasts'' are created such that selected wireless LAN performance indicators might be used to evaluate the e#ec­ tiveness of individual weather forecasts. The paper evaluates six distinct weather

  14. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  15. Preprints, 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doswell III, Charles A.

    ) models have substantially improved forecast skill. Recent and planned changes along these lines (e to delivering two kinds of weather products. The first is a day-to-day forecast of weather elements, e by the private sector. Improvements in automated techniques for the forecasting of basic weather elements

  16. Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Robock, Alan

    Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led

  17. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01

    of Solar 2011, American Solar Energy Society, Raleigh, NC.Description and validation. Solar Energy, 73 (5), 307-317.forecast database. Solar Energy, Perez, R. , S. Kivalov, J.

  18. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2009-10-15

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  20. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  1. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    and technological advancement in energy-intensive applications are causing fast electric energy consumption growth and consumption of electricity [8], as long as there is no significant correlation between intermittent energyArticle Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Residential Houses Linas Gelazanskas * and Kelum A

  2. GENETIC ALGORITHM FORECASTING FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Havlicek, Joebob

    available economic indicators such as Disposable Personal Income and New Housing Starts as independent exhibiting maximal fitness achieved RMS forecast errors below the the average two-week sales figure. 1 (Holland, 1975), (Packard, 1990), (Koza, 1992), (Bäck, et al., 1997), (Mitchell, 1998). For example, Meyer

  3. GOES Aviation Products Aviation Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kuligowski, Bob

    GOES Aviation Products · The GOES aviation forecast products are based on energy measured in different characteristics #12;GOES Aviation Products Quiz · What is a geostationary satellite? · What generates energy received by the satellite in the visible band? · What generates energy received by the satellite

  4. Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    solar forecasting system based on numerical weather prediction plus satellite and ground-based data.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation Based Data 13 Summary 14 References 14 #12;List of Figures Figure Number and Title Page # 1. Topography

  5. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reiter, Ehud

    summarisation. We found three alternative ways in which we could model data summarisation. One approach is based turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from

  6. "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS SEATTLE/TACOMA AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ASSESSMENT OF THE "FLIGHT PLAN" FORECASTS FOR SEATTLE/TACOMA AND REGIONAL AIRPORTS TOGETHER 1. Introduction 5 2. Airport Planning Process 7 Traditional Master Planning Application to Seattle/Tacoma. Uncertainty about Capacity 27 A Fuzzy Concept Assessment Factors Application to Seattle/Tacoma 7. Assessment

  7. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  8. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  9. Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting by Nina Marie Caraway B of Civil Engineering 2012 #12;This thesis entitled: Stochastic Weather Generator Based Ensemble Streamflow mentioned discipline. #12;iii Caraway, Nina Marie (M.S., Civil Engineering) Stochastic Weather Generator

  10. Safety shutdown separators

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carlson, Steven Allen; Anakor, Ifenna Kingsley; Farrell, Greg Robert

    2015-06-30

    The present invention pertains to electrochemical cells which comprise (a) an anode; (b) a cathode; (c) a solid porous separator, such as a polyolefin, xerogel, or inorganic oxide separator; and (d) a nonaqueous electrolyte, wherein the separator comprises a porous membrane having a microporous coating comprising polymer particles which have not coalesced to form a continuous film. This microporous coating on the separator acts as a safety shutdown layer that rapidly increases the internal resistivity and shuts the cell down upon heating to an elevated temperature, such as 110.degree. C. Also provided are methods for increasing the safety of an electrochemical cell by utilizing such separators with a safety shutdown layer.

  11. A 110-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe Floods of 200307*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Peter J.

    A 1­10-Day Ensemble Forecasting Scheme for the Major River Basins of Bangladesh: Forecasting Severe of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as they flow into Bangladesh; it has been operational since 2003. The Bangladesh points of the Ganges and Brahmaputra into Bangladesh. Forecasts with 1­10-day horizons are presented

  12. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  13. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  14. REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mays, Larry W.

    CHAPTER 3 REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND CAPACITY EXPANSION MODELS Messele Z. Ejeta California Department of Water Resources Sacramento, California Larry W. Mays Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona 3.1 INTRODUCTION Water supply planning on a regional scale

  15. WATER SUPPLY A Handbook on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    WATER SUPPLY HANDBOOK A Handbook on Water Supply Planning and Resource Management Institute for Water Resources Water Resources Support Center U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 7701 Telegraph Road Studies Division December 1998 Revised IWR Report 96-PS-4 #12;U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources

  16. Repetitive resonant railgun power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Honig, Emanuel M. (Los Alamos, NM); Nunnally, William C. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1988-01-01

    A repetitive resonant railgun power supply provides energy for repetitively propelling projectiles from a pair of parallel rails. The supply comprises an energy storage capacitor, a storage inductor to form a resonant circuit with the energy storage capacitor and a magnetic switch to transfer energy between the resonant circuit and the pair of parallel rails for the propelling of projectiles.

  17. Petroleum supply monthly, August 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    This publication the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. Data presented are divided into Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  18. Combinatorial Evolution and Forecasting of Communication Protocol ZigBee

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levin, Mark Sh; Kistler, Rolf; Klapproth, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses combinatorial evolution and forecasting of communication protocol for wireless sensor networks (ZigBee). Morphological tree structure (a version of and-or tree) is used as a hierarchical model for the protocol. Three generations of ZigBee protocol are examined. A set of protocol change operations is generated and described. The change operations are used as items for forecasting based on combinatorial problems (e.g., clustering, knapsack problem, multiple choice knapsack problem). Two kinds of preliminary forecasts for the examined communication protocol are considered: (i) direct expert (expert judgment) based forecast, (ii) computation of the forecast(s) (usage of multicriteria decision making and combinatorial optimization problems). Finally, aggregation of the obtained preliminary forecasts is considered (two aggregation strategies are used).

  19. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    forecasting for wind energy: Temperature dependence andlarge amounts of wind energy with a small electric system.Large scale integration of wind energy in the european power

  20. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    with transmission line and generator failures, and propose aload forecast errors and generator failures at an acceptablegenerator failure, 2-generator failure and so on) and, to a

  1. Improve supply chain resilience by multi-stage supply chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Jie, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2009-01-01

    Due to the global expansion of Company A's supply chain network, it is becoming more vulnerable to many disruptions. These disruptions often incur additional costs; and require time to respond to and recover from these ...

  2. Water supply and demand in an energy supply model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbey, D; Loose, V

    1980-12-01

    This report describes a tool for water and energy-related policy analysis, the development of a water supply and demand sector in a linear programming model of energy supply in the United States. The model allows adjustments in the input mix and plant siting in response to water scarcity. Thus, on the demand side energy conversion facilities can substitute more costly dry cooling systems for conventional evaporative systems. On the supply side groundwater and water purchased from irrigators are available as more costly alternatives to unappropriated surface water. Water supply data is developed for 30 regions in 10 Western states. Preliminary results for a 1990 energy demand scenario suggest that, at this level of spatial analysis, water availability plays a minor role in plant siting. Future policy applications of the modeling system are discussed including the evaluation of alternative patterns of synthetic fuels development.

  3. Petroleum supply monthly, April 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-01

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographical regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the US. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the US.

  4. Petroleum supply monthly, February 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly presents data describing the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the US. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders; operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. Data are divided into two sections: Summary statistics and Detailed statistics.

  5. Multiple resonant railgun power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Honig, Emanuel M. (Los Alamos, NM); Nunnally, William C. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1988-01-01

    A multiple repetitive resonant railgun power supply provides energy for repetitively propelling projectiles from a pair of parallel rails. A plurality of serially connected paired parallel rails are powered by similar power supplies. Each supply comprises an energy storage capacitor, a storage inductor to form a resonant circuit with the energy storage capacitor and a magnetic switch to transfer energy between the resonant circuit and the pair of parallel rails for the propelling of projectiles. The multiple serial operation permits relatively small energy components to deliver overall relatively large amounts of energy to the projectiles being propelled.

  6. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  7. Two techniques for forecasting clear air turbulence 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arbeiter, Randolph George

    1977-01-01

    result in only mild annoyance or discomfort (air sickness) to crew and passengers. As it becomes moderate, difficulty may be experienced in moving about inside the airplane and the crew may momentarily lose control. Severe CAT can result in injury... successfully used by the Air Force Clobal Heather Central (Barnett, 1970) for oper" tional forecasting on a day-to-day basis. Furthermore, its usefulness 1' or supersonic aircraft in the stratosphere v;as successfully demonstrated by Scoggins et H. (1975...

  8. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  9. Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

    2007-01-09

    An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

  10. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  11. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore »logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  13. Separators for flywheel rotors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bender, Donald A. (Dublin, CA); Kuklo, Thomas C. (Oakdale, CA)

    1998-01-01

    A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors.

  14. Separators for flywheel rotors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bender, D.A.; Kuklo, T.C.

    1998-07-07

    A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors. 10 figs.

  15. Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pinnau, Ingo (Palo Alto, CA); Morisato, Atsushi (Tokyo, JP)

    1998-01-13

    A separation membrane useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C.sub.2+ hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula: ##STR1## wherein R.sub.1 is chosen from the group consisting of C.sub.1 -C.sub.4 alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R.sub.2 is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) ›PMP!. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations.

  16. Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pinnau, I.; Morisato, Atsushi

    1998-01-13

    A separation membrane is described which is useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C{sub 2+} hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula shown in the accompanying diagram, wherein R{sub 1} is chosen from the group consisting of C{sub 1}-C{sub 4} alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R{sub 2} is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) [PMP]. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations. 4 figs.

  17. The 3He Supply Problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kouzes, Richard T.

    2009-05-01

    One of the main uses for 3He is in gas proportional counters for neutron detection. Radiation portal monitors deployed for homeland security and non-proliferation use such detectors. Other uses of 3He are for research detectors, commercial instruments, well logging detectors, dilution refrigerators, for targets or cooling in nuclear research, and for basic research in condensed matter physics. The US supply of 3He comes almost entirely from the decay of tritium used in nuclear weapons by the US and Russia. A few other countries contribute a small amount to the world’s 3He supply. Due to the large increase in use of 3He for homeland security, the supply has dwindled, and can no longer meet the demand. This white paper reviews the problems of supply, utilization, and alternatives.

  18. SUPPLY CHAIN OPTIMIZATION JOSEPH GEUNES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kaminsky, Philip M.

    Boston/Dordrecht/London #12;Contents 1 Information Centric Optimization in Capacitated Supply Chains 1 to their customers (whom we call "end-customers"). The goal is to minimize the total cost of transportation

  19. Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is hosting the Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop on February 3-4, 2015, in Golden, Colorado. The purpose of the workshop is to bring together a...

  20. Structural Changes in United States Cotton Supply 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mitchell, Donna Marie

    2010-10-12

    Agricultural supply represents the quantity supplied for a given price of a commodity. The supply function is an algebraic representation that shows, in this case, how much yield and acreage output changes from variations ...

  1. NEMS International Energy Module, model documentation report: World Oil Market, Petroleum Products Supply and Oxygenates Supply components

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-04

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is developing the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to enhance its energy forecasting capabilities and to provide the Department of Energy with a comprehensive framework for analyzing alternative energy` futures. NEMS is designed with a multi-level modular structure that represents specific energy supply activities, conversion processes, and demand sectors as a series of self-contained units which are linked by an integrating mechanism. The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) computes world oil prices and the resulting patterns of international trade in crude oil and refined products. This report is a reference document for energy analysts, model users, and the public that is intended to meet EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation for all statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Its purpose is to describe the structure of the IEM. Actual operation of the model is not discussed here. The report contains four sections summarizing the overall structure of the IEM and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods. Following a general description of the function and rationale of its key components, system and equation level information sufficient to permit independent evaluation of the model`s technical details is presented.

  2. Petroleum supply monthly, April 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1990-06-26

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly describe (PSM) the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply.'' Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  3. Demand forecasting for aircraft engine aftermarket

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ho, Kien K. (Kine Kit)

    2008-01-01

    In 2006, Pratt and Whitney launched the Global Material Solutions business model aiming to supply spare parts to non-OEM engines with minimum 95% on-time delivery and fill-rate. Lacking essential technical knowledge of the ...

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  5. Environmental decision making: supply-chain considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reich-Weiser, Corinne; Dornfeld, David

    2008-01-01

    manufacturing environmental impact and enable the reductionthe supply chain (3) environmental impact and cost must bethe supply chain’s environmental impact and flexibility (

  6. Supplying High-Quality, Raw Biomass

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supplying High-Quality, Raw Biomass The building blocks to supply high-quality raw biomass start with harvesting and collection practices, product storage and recommendations of...

  7. The Commission Forecast 1992 Report: Important Resource Planning Issues 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adib, P.

    1992-01-01

    FORECAST 1992 REPORT: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PLANNING ISSUES PARVIZ ADIB MANAGER, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION ELECTRIC DIVISION PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION OF TEXAS ABSTRACT There is a general agreement among experts in the electric utility industry... there are many important issues in the preparation of a utility's electric resource plan, the Commission staff will address a few important ones in the next Commission Forecast Report (Forecast '92). In particular, the Commission staff will insure...

  8. M.S. in Supply Chain Management Advisory Board Tracy May Adair The J.M. Smucker Company Director, Supply Chain -Green Coffee and Tea Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McLaughlin, Joyce R.

    , Supply Chain - Green Coffee and Tea Supply Mike Bartikoski Roskam Baking Company Chief Operating Officer

  9. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  10. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01

    function. The forecasts of oil, coal and gas prices as wellforecasts for natural gas consumption, electricity sales, coal and electricity prices,

  11. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  12. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  13. Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

  14. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping (Presentation...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the shift from ramping. * the benefits - better use of forecast values (load or net load) - reduce the amount of variability that the regulation reserve must accommodate...

  15. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  16. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  17. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S...

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear...

  18. Effects of the drought on California electricity supply and demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benenson, P.

    2010-01-01

    ELECTRICITY SUPPLY Hydroelectric Energy Supply Thermal-Electric Energy Supply LOSS OF LOAD PROBABILITY FOR PG&E,irrigated agri- electrical energy supply has been done for

  19. Gas Separation Using Membranes 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koros, W. J.; Paul, D. R.

    1984-01-01

    Commercial membrane-based gas separator systems based upon high-flux, asymmetric polysulfone hollow fibers were first introduced in 1977 by Monsanto. These systems were packaged in compact modules containing large amounts of permeation surface area...

  20. Gas-separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toy, Lora G. (San Francisco, CA); Pinnau, Ingo (Palo Alto, CA); Baker, Richard W. (Palo Alto, CA)

    1994-01-01

    A process for separating condensable organic components from gas streams. The process makes use of a membrane made from a polymer material that is glassy and that has an unusually high free volume within the polymer material.

  1. Microsystem capillary separations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    TeGrotenhuis, Ward E [Kennewick, WA; Wegeng, Robert S [Richland, WA; Whyatt, Greg A [West Richland, WA; Stenkamp, Victoria S [Richland, WA; Gauglitz, Phillip A [Richland, WA

    2003-12-23

    Laminated, multiphase separators and contactors having wicking structures and gas flow channels are described. Some preferred embodiments are combined with microchannel heat exchange. Integrated systems containing these components are also part of the present invention.

  2. Molten salt electrolyte separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaun, Thomas D. (New Lenox, IL)

    1996-01-01

    A molten salt electrolyte/separator for battery and related electrochemical systems including a molten electrolyte composition and an electrically insulating solid salt dispersed therein, to provide improved performance at higher current densities and alternate designs through ease of fabrication.

  3. Plasma isotope separation methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Grossman, M.W. ); Shepp, T.A. )

    1991-12-01

    Isotope separation has many important industrial, medical, and research applications. Large-scale processes have typically utilized complex cascade systems; for example, the gas centrifuge. Alternatively, high single-stage enrichment processes (as in the case of the calutron) are very energy intensive. Plasma-based methods being developed for the past 15 to 20 years have attempted to overcome these two drawbacks. In this review, six major types of isotope separation methods which involve plasma phenomena are discussed. These methods are: plasma centrifuge, AVLIS (atomic vapor laser isotope separation), ion wave, ICR (ion-cyclotron resonance), calutron, and gas discharge. The emphasis of this paper is to describe the plasma phenomena in these major categories. An attempt was made to include enough references so that more detailed study or evaluation of a particular method could readily be pursued. A brief discussion of isotope separation using mass balance concepts is also carried out.

  4. Membrane Separations Research 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fair, J. R.

    1992-01-01

    been dominated by light gas separations and water purification. During this pioneering period, equipment containing the membrane suIfaces has been developed to a point where failures are minimal and the membranes themselves are sufficiently rugged... of separation technology, especially in the area of gas recovery and purification. The field has grown quite large and the literature is voluminous. There is now a North American Membrane Society and there has been for some years the Journal of Membrane...

  5. Hydrogen separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mundschau, Michael (Longmont, CO); Xie, Xiaobing (Foster City, CA); Evenson, IV, Carl (Lafayette, CO); Grimmer, Paul (Longmont, CO); Wright, Harold (Longmont, CO)

    2011-05-24

    A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to an integrated water gas shift/hydrogen separation membrane system wherein the hydrogen separation membrane system comprises a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for pretreating a membrane, comprising: heating the membrane to a desired operating temperature and desired feed pressure in a flow of inert gas for a sufficient time to cause the membrane to mechanically deform; decreasing the feed pressure to approximately ambient pressure; and optionally, flowing an oxidizing agent across the membrane before, during, or after deformation of the membrane. A method of supporting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising selecting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising one or more catalyst outer layers deposited on a hydrogen transport membrane layer and sealing the hydrogen separation membrane system to a porous support.

  6. Petroleum supply monthly, September 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-30

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administrations for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics. 65 tabs.

  7. Petroleum supply monthly, February 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-03-02

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  8. Petroleum supply monthly, April 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-05-04

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  9. Petroleum Supply Monthly, August 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-10-30

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) district movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  10. Petroleum Supply Monthly, September 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-09-01

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timelines and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: Petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  11. Petroleum supply monthly, October 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-10-27

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: Petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  12. Petroleum monthly supply, November 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-11-30

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  13. Petroleum supply monthly, November 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-11-29

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  14. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-03-01

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in ''Primary Supply.'' Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics. 12 figs., 46 tabs.

  15. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-01-27

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  16. Petroleum supply monthly, December 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-12-29

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  17. Petroleum supply monthly, October 1992

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-10-27

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately, represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  18. Petroleum supply monthly, May 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-05-27

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum supply annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  19. Petroleum supply monthly, October 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-10-26

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  20. Petroleum supply monthly, July 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-26

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  1. Petroleum supply monthly, June 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-06-28

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  2. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-15

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  4. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  6. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural GasEIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

  7. Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2010.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Lu, Y.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J.

    2011-03-14

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. These membranes will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes the results from the development and testing of HTM materials during FY 2010.

  8. Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E.; Lu, Y.; Emerson, J. E.; Park, C. Y.; Lee, T. H.; Picciolo, J. J.; Energy Systems

    2010-04-16

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. HTMs will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes the results from the development and testing of HTM materials during FY 2009.

  9. Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2008.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E.; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Lu, Y.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J.; Energy Systems

    2009-03-17

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. HTMs will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes progress that was made during Fy 2008 on the development of HTM materials.

  10. Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook Retrieving direct and diffuse radiation with the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 1/ 14 Retrieving. 17, 2015 #12;Motivation Methods Model configuration Results Forecasting Summary & Outlook 2/ 14 Motivation Sky Imager based shortest-term solar irradiance forecasts for local solar energy applications

  11. ECMWF analyses and forecasts of 500 mb synoptic-scale activity during wintertime blocking 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Matson, David Michael

    1993-01-01

    An observational study of 500 mb atmospheric blocking is conducted based on an European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wintertime analysis and forecast dataset during dynamic extended range forecasting ...

  12. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  13. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  14. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  15. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  16. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  17. HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamieson, Bruce

    HOW ACCURATE ARE WEATHER MODELS IN ASSISTING AVALANCHE FORECASTERS? M. Schirmer, B. Jamieson and decision makers strongly rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, for example on the forecasted on forecasted precipitation. KEYWORDS: Numerical weather prediction models, validation, precipitation 1

  18. Petroleum supply monthly, July 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-07-29

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: Petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  19. Petroleum supply monthly, August 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-26

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  20. CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Su, Xiao

    CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY By: Yasser Dessouky #12;Carbon Footprint Supply Chain Carbon Trust defines carbon footprint of a supply chain as follows: "The carbon footprint of a product is the carbon dioxide emitted across the supply chain for a single

  1. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01

    total of 15 metrics. Pathway reliability General objectives Adequacy Security Functional zones Primary energy supply

  2. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    total of 15 metrics. Pathway reliability General objectives Adequacy Security Functional zones Primary energy supply

  3. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    systems absorb large amounts of hydroelectric power. Duringthat snow melts and hydroelectric power supply increases and

  4. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    Data presented describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  5. Organic Separation Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Renee L.; Rinehart, Donald E.; Peterson, Reid A.

    2014-09-22

    Separable organics have been defined as “those organic compounds of very limited solubility in the bulk waste and that can form a separate liquid phase or layer” (Smalley and Nguyen 2013), and result from three main solvent extraction processes: U Plant Uranium Recovery Process, B Plant Waste Fractionation Process, and Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Process. The primary organic solvents associated with tank solids are TBP, D2EHPA, and NPH. There is concern that, while this organic material is bound to the sludge particles as it is stored in the tanks, waste feed delivery activities, specifically transfer pump and mixer pump operations, could cause the organics to form a separated layer in the tank farms feed tank. Therefore, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) is experimentally evaluating the potential of organic solvents separating from the tank solids (sludge) during waste feed delivery activities, specifically the waste mixing and transfer processes. Given the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) waste acceptance criteria per the Waste Feed Acceptance Criteria document (24590-WTP-RPT-MGT-11-014) that there is to be “no visible layer” of separable organics in the waste feed, this would result in the batch being unacceptable to transfer to WTP. This study is of particular importance to WRPS because of these WTP requirements.

  6. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  7. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  8. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Ramon

    Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns in nonlinear and chaotic systems, neural networks offer the ability to predict market directions more

  9. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids Andrea Michiorri Arthur-based battery schedule optimisation in microgrids in presence of network constraints. We examine a specific case production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  10. Forecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacDonald, Mark

    electricity consumption in time. This paper investigates the ability on Artificial Neural Networks to predict shift electric energy. Keywords--Hot Water Consumption; Forecasting; Artifitial Neural Networks; SmartForecasting Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings Using Artifitial Neural Networks Linas Gelazanskas

  11. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the forecast of electricity consumption for those years has been less than one half of a percent. Figure A-1 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  12. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make. The transportation fuel and crude oil import requirement assessments build on assumptions about California crude oil forecasts, transportation energy, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, crude oil production, fuel imports, crude oil

  13. A Deep Hybrid Model for Weather Forecasting Aditya Grover

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    @microsoft.com ABSTRACT Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We ex- plore new directions with forecasting weather as a data- intensive challenge that involves the joint statistics of a set of weather-related vari- ables. We show how the base model can be enhanced

  14. Hydrological Forecasting Improvements Primary Investigator: Thomas Croley -NOAA GLERL (Emeritus)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    multiple data streams in a near-real-time manner and incorporate them into the AHPS data base, run for matching weather forecasts with historical data, and prepare extensive forecasts of hydrology probabilities maximum use of all available information and be based on efficient and true hydrological process models

  15. DEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in a data base and graphic representation with tile standard meteorological icons on a map, e.g. iconsDEEP COMPREHENSION, GENERATION AND TRANSLATION OF WEATHER FORECASTS (WEATHRA) by BENGT SIGURD, Sweden E-mail: linglund@gemini.ldc.lu.se FAX:46-(0)46 104210 Introduction and abstract Weather forecasts

  16. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    markets could aid in the design of appropriate price forecasting tools for such markets. Scenario1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou, restructured wholesale power markets, scenario generation, ARMA model, moment-matching method I. INTRODUCTION

  17. Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barnes, Graham

    Probabilistic forecasting of solar flares from vector magnetogram data G. Barnes,1 K. D. Leka,1 E to solar flare forecasting, adapted to provide the probability that a measurement belongs to either group, the groups in this case being solar active regions which produced a flare within 24 hours and those

  18. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19

    Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez...

  19. Human Trajectory Forecasting In Indoor Environments Using Geometric Context

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . In addressing this problem, we have built a model to estimate the occupancy behavior of humans based enhancement in the accuracy of trajectory forecasting by incorporating the occupancy behavior model. Keywords Trajectory forecasting, human occupancy behavior, 3D ge- ometric context 1. INTRODUCTION Given a human

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data Office. Andrea Gough ran the summary energy model and supervised data preparation. Glen Sharp prepared models. Both the staff revised energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly higher than

  1. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

  2. MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MAINTENANCE, UPGRADE AND VERIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WATER VAPOUR Purchase Order 58311/ODG/99/8362/GWI/LET #12;i PREFACE Starting in August 1998, operational forecasts satellite imagery from the Co-operative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and upper

  3. Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Kai

    1 Adaptive Energy Forecasting and Information Diffusion for Smart Power Grids Yogesh Simmhan. One of the characteristic applications of Smart Grids is demand response optimization (DR). The goal of DR is to use the power consumption time series data to reliable forecast the future consumption

  4. THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    THE DESIRE TO ACQUIRE: FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SERVICES by Steven Groves BASc of Research Project: The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services Report No, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy

  5. Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Horvitz, Eric

    Airplanes Aloft as a Sensor Network for Wind Forecasting Ashish Kapoor, Zachary Horvitz, Spencer for observing weather phenomena at a continental scale. We focus specifically on the problem of wind forecasting with the sensed winds. The experiments show the promise of using airplane in flight as a large-scale sensor

  6. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Freitas, Nando de

    on the sentiment of price39 forecasts and reports for commodities such as gold, natural gas or most commonly oil or natural gas can impact everything from the21 critical business decisions made within nationsClassification of Commodity Price Forecast Sentiment With Random Forests and Bayesian Optimization

  7. Membrane separation of hydrocarbons

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chang, Y. Alice (Des Plaines, IL); Kulkarni, Sudhir S. (Hoffman Estates, IL); Funk, Edward W. (Highland Park, IL)

    1986-01-01

    Mixtures of heavy oils and light hydrocarbons may be separated by passing the mixture through a polymeric membrane. The membrane which is utilized to effect the separation comprises a polymer which is capable of maintaining its integrity in the presence of hydrocarbon compounds and which has been modified by being subjected to the action of a sulfonating agent. Sulfonating agents which may be employed will include fuming sulfuric acid, chlorosulfonic acid, sulfur trioxide, etc., the surface or bulk modified polymer will contain a degree of sulfonation ranging from about 15 to about 50%. The separation process is effected at temperatures ranging from about ambient to about 100.degree. C. and pressures ranging from about 50 to about 1000 psig.

  8. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar

  9. A high-resolution, cloud-assimilating numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Collier, Craig; Kleissl, Jan

    2013-01-01

    of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts numerical weather prediction model for solar irradiance weather prediction for intra?day solar  forecasting in the 

  10. Building Electricity Load Forecasting via Stacking Ensemble Learning Method with Moving Horizon Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Burger, Eric M.; Moura, Scott J.

    2015-01-01

    K. W. Yau, “Predicting electricity energy con- sumption: Afor building-level electricity load forecasts,” Energy andannealing algorithms in electricity load forecasting,”

  11. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  12. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  14. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  17. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  18. Separators for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carlson, Steven Allen; Anakor, Ifenna Kingsley

    2014-11-11

    Provided are separators for use in an electrochemical cell comprising (a) an inorganic oxide and (b) an organic polymer, wherein the inorganic oxide comprises organic substituents. Preferably, the inorganic oxide comprises an hydrated aluminum oxide of the formula Al.sub.2O.sub.3.xH.sub.2O, wherein x is less than 1.0, and wherein the hydrated aluminum oxide comprises organic substituents, preferably comprising a reaction product of a multifunctional monomer and/or organic carbonate with an aluminum oxide, such as pseudo-boehmite and an aluminum oxide. Also provided are electrochemical cells comprising such separators.

  19. Supply Chain Supernetworks Random Demands

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Supernetworks with Random Demands June Dong and Ding Zhang Department of Marketing of three tiers of decision-makers: the manufacturers, the distributors, and the retailers, with the demands equilibrium model with electronic commerce and with random demands for which modeling, qualitative analysis

  20. Petroleum supply monthly, March 1989

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1989-05-24

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in ''Primary Supply.'' Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

  1. Petroleum Supply Monthly September 2004

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Special Files . Tables 4, 26, 35, 51, and 52. TXT 0.4MB Early release for Petroleum Supply Monthly Highlights. TXT 0.1MB All TXT files. TXT 0.2MB CDF 0.1MB Values of Averages...

  2. Power Supply Synchronization without Communication

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hespanha, João Pedro

    the dynamical behavior of interconnected synchronous generators. I. INTRODUCTION The problem of interconnecting parameters, a newly added power plant generator naturally synchronizes with a previously synchro- nized1 Power Supply Synchronization without Communication Leonardo A. B. T^orres, Jo~ao P. Hespanha

  3. Document Supply Services Quick Guide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , phrase, ISBN/ISSN in the Search Term field (other options are available in the dropdown menu). Note1 Document Supply Services Quick Guide The DSS Portal makes requesting easy! Search for your item and password. If you are having difficulty please read the login help on the main DSS webpage. 2. Enter a word

  4. Petroleum supply monthly, March 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-30

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics. The tables and figures in the Summary Statistics section of the PSM present a time series of selected petroleum data on a US level. Most time series include preliminary estimates for one month based on the Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System; statistics based on the most recent data from the Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS); and statistics published in prior issues of the PSM and PSA. The Detailed Statistics tables of the PSM present statistics for the most current month available as well as year-to-date. In most cases, the statistics are presented for several geographic areas -- the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia), five PAD Districts, and 12 Refining Districts. At the US and PAD District level, the total volume and the daily rate of activities are presented. The statistics are developed from monthly survey forms submitted by respondents to the EIA and from data provided from other sources.

  5. Petroleum supply monthly, June 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-06-28

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics. The tables and figures ih the Summary Statistics section of the PSM present a time series of selected petroleum data on a US level. Most time series include preliminary estimates for one month based on the Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System; statistics based on the most recent data from the Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS); and statistics published in prior issues of the PSM and PSA. The Detailed Statistics tables of the PSM present statistics for the most current month available as well as year-to-date. In most cases, the statistics are presented for several geographic areas - - the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia), five PAD Districts, and 12 Refining Districts. At the US and PAD District level, the total volume and the daily rate of activities are presented. The statistics are developed from monthly survey forms submitted by respondents to the EIA and from data provided firom other sources.

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  7. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01

    Av:l.at:i.on Fuel Total Oil Demand 0:!.1 Demand w:t thoutSince electric:! ty prices oil prices, the demand for will :the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand and supply, \\ve

  8. Mesoporous Block Copolymer Battery Separators

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong, David Tunmin

    2012-01-01

    Xiangyun Song helped me with battery experiments. I want toMesoporous Block Copolymer Battery Separators by DavidMesoporous Block Copolymer Battery Separators by David

  9. Polymide gas separation membranes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ding, Yong; Bikson, Benjamin; Nelson, Joyce Katz

    2004-09-14

    Soluble polyamic acid salt (PAAS) precursors comprised of tertiary and quaternary amines, ammonium cations, sulfonium cations, or phosphonium cations, are prepared and fabricated into membranes that are subsequently imidized and converted into rigid-rod polyimide articles, such as membranes with desirable gas separation properties. A method of enhancing solubility of PAAS polymers in alcohols is also disclosed.

  10. Molten salt electrolyte separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaun, T.D.

    1996-07-09

    The patent describes a molten salt electrolyte/separator for battery and related electrochemical systems including a molten electrolyte composition and an electrically insulating solid salt dispersed therein, to provide improved performance at higher current densities and alternate designs through ease of fabrication. 5 figs.

  11. Gas-separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Toy, L.G.; Pinnau, I.; Baker, R.W.

    1994-01-25

    A process is described for separating condensable organic components from gas streams. The process makes use of a membrane made from a polymer material that is glassy and that has an unusually high free volume within the polymer material. 6 figures.

  12. NEAMS safeguards and separations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadasivan, Pratap [Los Alamos National Laboratory; De Paoli, David W [ORNL

    2011-01-25

    This presentation provides a program management update on the Safeguards and Separations Integrated Performance and Safety Code (IPSC) program in the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS). It provides an overview of FY11 work packages at multiple DOE Labs and includes material on challenge problem definitions for the IPSC effort.

  13. Separation science and technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, B.F.; Sauer, N.; Chamberlin, R.M.; Gottesfeld, S.; Mattes, B.R.; Li, D.Q.; Swanson, B.

    1998-12-31

    The focus of this project is the demonstration and advancement of membrane-based separation and destruction technologies. The authors are exploring development of membrane systems for gas separations, selective metal ion recovery, and for separation or destruction of hazardous organics. They evaluated existing polymers and polymer formulations for recovery of toxic oxyanionic metals such as chromate and arsenate from selected waste streams and developed second-generation water-soluble polymeric systems for highly selective oxyanion removal and recovery. They optimized the simultaneous removal of radioactive strontium and cesium from aqueous solutions using the new nonhazardous separations agents, and developed recyclable, redox-active extractants that permitted recovery of the radioactive ions into a minimal waste volume. They produced hollow fibers and fabricated prototype hollow-fiber membrane modules for applications to gas separations and the liquid-liquid extraction and recovery of actinides and nuclear materials from process streams. They developed and fabricated cyclodextrin-based microporous materials that selectively absorb organic compounds in an aqueous environment; the resultant products gave pure water with organics at less than 0.05 parts per billion. They developed new, more efficient, membrane-based electrochemical reactors for use in organic destruction in process waste treatment. They addressed the need for advanced oxidation technologies based on molecular-level materials designs that selectively remove or destroy target species. They prepared and characterized surface-modified TiO{sub 2} thin films using different linking approaches to attach ruthenium photosensitizers, and they started the measurement of the photo-degradation products generated using surface modified TiO{sub 2} films in reaction with chlorophenol.

  14. Supply Chain OptimizersSupply Chain Optimizers Packaging OptimizationPackaging Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Delivers Amazing SavingsDelivers Amazing Savings #12;What Do We Do?What Do We Do? ·· Utilize efficientis to make our clients more efficient #12;Supply Chain PremiseSupply Chain Premise Efficiency

  15. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  16. Petroleum Supply Monthly, July 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-28

    Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  17. High voltage DC power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Droege, Thomas F. (Batavia, IL)

    1989-01-01

    A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively.

  18. High voltage DC power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Droege, T.F.

    1989-12-19

    A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively. 7 figs.

  19. 1992 Conversion Resources Supply Document

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-03-01

    In recent years conservation of electric power has become an integral part of utility planning. The 1980 Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act (Northwest Power Act) requires that the region consider conservation potential in planning acquisitions of resources to meet load growth. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) developed its first estimates of conservation potential in 1982. Since that time BPA has updated its conservation supply analyses as a part of its Resource Program and other planning efforts. Major updates were published in 1985 and in January 1990. This 1992 document presents updated supply curves, which are estimates of the savings potential over time (cumulative savings) at different cost levels of energy conservation measures (ECMs). ECMs are devices, pieces of equipment, or actions that increase the efficiency of electricity use and reduce the amount of electricity used by end-use equipment.

  20. Petroluem Supply Monthly, May 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-06-04

    Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  1. Feedstock Supply | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center HomeVehicleDepartmentMediaEnergyFederalRenewable EnergySupply

  2. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  3. Steam separator latch assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Challberg, R.C.; Kobsa, I.R.

    1994-02-01

    A latch assembly removably joins a steam separator assembly to a support flange disposed at a top end of a tubular shroud in a nuclear reactor pressure vessel. The assembly includes an annular head having a central portion for supporting the steam separator assembly thereon, and an annular head flange extending around a perimeter thereof for supporting the head to the support flange. A plurality of latches are circumferentially spaced apart around the head flange with each latch having a top end, a latch hook at a bottom end thereof, and a pivot support disposed at an intermediate portion therebetween and pivotally joined to the head flange. The latches are pivoted about the pivot supports for selectively engaging and disengaging the latch hooks with the support flange for fixedly joining the head to the shroud or for allowing removal thereof. 12 figures.

  4. Advanced Separation Consortium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    2006-01-01

    The Center for Advanced Separation Technologies (CAST) was formed in 2001 under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy to conduct fundamental research in advanced separation and to develop technologies that can be used to produce coal and minerals in an efficient and environmentally acceptable manner. The CAST consortium consists of seven universities - Virginia Tech, West Virginia University, University of Kentucky, Montana Tech, University of Utah, University of Nevada-Reno, and New Mexico Tech. The consortium brings together a broad range of expertise to solve problems facing the US coal industry and the mining sector in general. At present, a total of 60 research projects are under way. The article outlines some of these, on topics including innovative dewatering technologies, removal of mercury and other impurities, and modelling of the flotation process. 1 photo.

  5. Photochemical isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robinson, C.P.; Jensen, R.J.; Cotter, T.P.; Greiner, N.R.; Boyer, K.

    1987-04-28

    A process is described for separating isotopes by selective excitation of isotopic species of a volatile compound by tuned laser light. A highly cooled gas of the volatile compound is produced in which the isotopic shift is sharpened and defined. Before substantial condensation occurs, the cooled gas is irradiated with laser light precisely tuned to a desired wavelength to selectively excite a particular isotopic species in the cooled gas. The laser light may impart sufficient energy to the excited species to cause it to undergo photochemical reaction or even to photoionize. Alternatively, a two-photon irradiation may be applied to the cooled gas to induce photochemical reaction or photoionization. The process is particularly applicable to the separation of isotopes of uranium and plutonium. 8 figs.

  6. Laser isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robinson, C. Paul (Los Alamos, NM); Jensen, Reed J. (Los Alamos, NM); Cotter, Theodore P. (Munich, DE); Boyer, Keith (Los Alamos, NM); Greiner, Norman R. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1988-01-01

    A process and apparatus for separating isotopes by selective excitation of isotopic species of a volatile compound by tuned laser light. A highly cooled gas of the volatile compound is produced in which the isotopic shift is sharpened and defined. Before substantial condensation occurs, the cooled gas is irradiated with laser light precisely tuned to a desired wavelength to selectively excite a particular isotopic species in the cooled gas. The laser light may impart sufficient energy to the excited species to cause it to undergo photolysis, photochemical reaction or even to photoionize. Alternatively, a two-photon irradiation may be applied to the cooled gas to induce photolysis, photochemical reaction or photoionization. The process is particularly applicable to the separation of isotopes of uranium.

  7. Atomic vapor laser isotope separation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stern, R.C.; Paisner, J.A.

    1986-08-15

    The atomic vapor laser isotope separation (AVLIS) process for the enrichment of uranium is evaluated. (AIP)

  8. Membrane separation of hydrocarbons

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Funk, Edward W. (Highland Park, IL); Kulkarni, Sudhir S. (Hoffman Estates, IL); Chang, Y. Alice (Des Plaines, IL)

    1986-01-01

    Mixtures of heavy oils and light hydrocarbons may be separated by passing the mixture over a polymeric membrane which comprises a polymer capable of maintaining its integrity in the presence of hydrocarbon compounds at temperature ranging from about ambient to about 100.degree. C. and pressures ranging from about 50 to about 1000 psi. The membranes which possess pore sizes ranging from about 10 to about 500 Angstroms are cast from a solvent solution and recovered.

  9. Apparatus for electrophoresis separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Anderson, Norman L. (Willowbrook, IL)

    1978-01-01

    An apparatus is disclosed for simultaneously performing electrophoresis separations on a plurality of slab gels containing samples of protein, protein subunits or nucleic acids. A reservoir of buffer solution is divided into three compartments by two parallel partitions having vertical slots spaced along their length. A sheet of flexible, electrically insulative material is attached to each partition and is provided with vertical slits aligned with the slots. Slab-gel holders are received within the slots with the flexible material folded outwardly as flaps from the slits to overlay portions of the holder surfaces and thereby act as electrical and liquid seals. An elongated, spaghetti-like gel containing a sample of specimen that was previously separated by isoelectric focusing techniques is vertically positioned along a marginal edge portion of the slab gel. On application of an electrical potential between the two outer chambers of buffer solution, a second dimensional electrophoresis separation in accordance with molecular weight occurs as the specimen molecules migrate across the slab gel.

  10. Innovative Separations Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Tripp; N. Soelberg; R. Wigeland

    2011-05-01

    Reprocessing used nuclear fuel (UNF) is a multi-faceted problem involving chemistry, material properties, and engineering. Technology options are available to meet a variety of processing goals. A decision about which reprocessing method is best depends significantly on the process attributes considered to be a priority. New methods of reprocessing that could provide advantages over the aqueous Plutonium Uranium Reduction Extraction (PUREX) and Uranium Extraction + (UREX+) processes, electrochemical, and other approaches are under investigation in the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCR&D) Separations Campaign. In an attempt to develop a revolutionary approach to UNF recycle that may have more favorable characteristics than existing technologies, five innovative separations projects have been initiated. These include: (1) Nitrogen Trifluoride for UNF Processing; (2) Reactive Fluoride Gas (SF6) for UNF Processing; (3) Dry Head-end Nitration Processing; (4) Chlorination Processing of UNF; and (5) Enhanced Oxidation/Chlorination Processing of UNF. This report provides a description of the proposed processes, explores how they fit into the Modified Open Cycle (MOC) and Full Recycle (FR) fuel cycles, and identifies performance differences when compared to 'reference' advanced aqueous and fluoride volatility separations cases. To be able to highlight the key changes to the reference case, general background on advanced aqueous solvent extraction, advanced oxidative processes (e.g., volumetric oxidation, or 'voloxidation,' which is high temperature reaction of oxide UNF with oxygen, or modified using other oxidizing and reducing gases), and fluorination and chlorination processes is provided.

  11. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2009-04-06

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  12. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  13. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  14. Michel Meulpolder Managing Supply and Demand of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Michel Meulpolder Managing Supply and Demand of Bandwidth in Peer-to-Peer Communities #12;#12;Managing Supply and Demand of Bandwidth in Peer-to-Peer Communities Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de

  15. Supply chain for mobile network operator

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Kenneth Lap Chi

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to understand and get insights on the characteristics of mobile device supply chain management for mobile networks operators. The relationship between corporate strategy and supply chain strategy ...

  16. Supply chain management in the cement industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agudelo, Isabel

    2009-01-01

    Traditionally supply chain management has played an operational role within cement and mineral extraction commodity companies. Recently, cost reduction projects have brought supply chain management into the limelight. In ...

  17. An integrative framework for architecting supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cela Díaz, Fernando

    2006-01-01

    This thesis explores the limitations of classic models of supply chain management, and proposes a new view based on the concept of value-driven supply chains, and a method of analysis and design based on the concepts of ...

  18. CloudCast: Cloud Computing for Short-term Mobile Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shenoy, Prashant

    of Massachusetts Amherst Abstract--Since today's weather forecasts only cover large regions every few hours algorithm for generating accurate short-term weather forecasts. We study CloudCast's design space, which One useful application is mobile weather forecasting, which provides hour-to-hour forecasts

  19. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  20. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Irradiance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Forecasting Solar Irradiance With GOES-West Satellite

  1. Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a 1D Numerical Model Used for Fog Forecasting SAMUEL RE, a need exists for accurate and updated fog and low-cloud forecasts. Couche Brouillard Eau Liquide (COBEL for the very short-term forecast of fog and low clouds. This forecast system assimilates local observations

  2. Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Raftery, Adrian

    Bias Correction and Bayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble Forecasts of Surface Wind Direction LE proposes an effective bias correction technique for wind direction forecasts from numerical weather forecasts. These techniques are applied to 48-h forecasts of surface wind direction over the Pacific

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  4. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  5. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  6. Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marseille, Gert-Jan

    of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high- impact on their ability to improve meteorological analyses and subsequently reduce the probability of forecast failures true atmospheric state. This was generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  7. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    Scale Renewable Energy Integration . . . . . . . . . . .Impacts of Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3 Coupling Renewable Energy with Deferrable

  8. Ethanol's Effect on Grain Supply and Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-01-01

    This document provides graphical information about ethanol's effect on grain supply and prices, uses of corn, and grain price trends.

  9. E951 POWER SUPPLY IOANNIS MARNERIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    E951 POWER SUPPLY 5/13/02 IOANNIS MARNERIS Brookhaven National Labs. #12;Project Goals T and a repetition rate of about 30 minutes. · Complete the design of the power supply design/modifications by the end of FY 02 · Complete the fabrication of the power supply by the end of the FY03. · Complete

  10. E951 POWER SUPPLY SAFETY REVIEW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    E951 POWER SUPPLY SAFETY REVIEW 9/06/02 IOANNIS MARNERIS Brookhaven National Labs. #12;Project. · To do this we will use 4 existing SCR type dc power supplies from the experimental area in series-parallel connection. · Each power supply is rated at 3600 Adc, +/- 150 V #12;Parameters of the Pulse Magnet System

  11. Special Glial Journal Club Seminar "Energy Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newman, Eric A.

    Special Glial Journal Club Seminar "Energy Supply to the CNS" Clare Howarth Department Howarth - Energy supply to the CNS I will consider three aspects of the energetic design of the brain: (1 and therapy. (2) How the blood supplies to particular brain regions are matched to the estimated energy

  12. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  13. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  14. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  15. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  16. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  17. Multidimensional approaches to performance evaluation of competing forecasting models 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Bing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions ...

  18. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  19. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  20. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties ...

  1. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  2. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  3. Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peyraud, Lionel

    2001-01-01

    weather patterns known to be favorable for producing fog and once it has formed, to state that it will persist unless the pattern changes. Unfortunately, while such methods have shown some success, many times they have led weather forecasters astray...

  4. Pressure Normalization of Production Rates Improves Forecasting Results 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lacayo Ortiz, Juan Manuel

    2013-08-07

    reliable production forecasting technique suited to interpret unconventional wells in specific situations such as unstable operating conditions, limited availability of production data (short production history) and high-pressure, rate-restricted wells...

  5. Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Fourteen Countries. 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balaban, Ercan; Bayar, Asli; Faff, Robert

    2002-01-01

    This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for weekly and monthly volatility in fourteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-week (within-month) standard deviation of continuously ...

  6. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  7. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  8. Polymeric battery separators

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Minchak, R. J.; Schenk, W. N.

    1985-06-11

    Configurations of cross-linked or vulcanized amphophilic or quaternized block copolymer of haloalkyl epoxides and hydroxyl terminated alkadiene polymers are useful as battery separators in both primary and secondary batteries, particularly nickel-zinc batteries. The quaternized block copolymers are prepared by polymerizing a haloalkyl epoxide in the presence of a hydroxyl terminated 1,3-alkadiene to form a block copolymer that is then reacted with an amine to form the quaternized or amphophilic block copolymer that is then cured or cross-linked with sulfur, polyamines, metal oxides, organic peroxides and the like.

  9. Cyclic membrane separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nemser, Stuart M.

    2005-05-03

    A cyclic process for controlling environmental emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vapor recovery in storage and dispensing operations of liquids maintains a vacuum in the storage tank ullage. In the first part of a two-part cyclic process ullage vapor is discharged through a vapor recovery system in which VOC are stripped from vented gas with a selectively gas permeable membrane. In the second part, the membrane is inoperative while gas pressure rises in the ullage. In one aspect of this invention, a vacuum is drawn in the membrane separation unit thus reducing overall VOC emissions.

  10. Cyclic membrane separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bowser, John

    2004-04-13

    A cyclic process for controlling environmental emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vapor recovery in storage and dispensing operations of liquids maintains a vacuum in the storage tank ullage. In one of a two-part cyclic process ullage vapor is discharged through a vapor recovery system in which VOC are stripped from vented gas with a selectively gas permeable membrane. In the other part, the membrane is inoperative while gas pressure rises in the ullage. Ambient air is charged to the membrane separation unit during the latter part of the cycle.

  11. Forecasting the probability of forest fires in Northeast Texas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wadleigh, Stuart Allen

    1972-01-01

    FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Submit ted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... December 1972 Major Subject: Meteorology FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF FOREST FIRES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS A Thesis by STUART ALLEN WADLEIGH Approved as to style and content by: ( irman of ee) (Head of Depar nt) (Member) (Member) December 1972 c...

  12. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17

    for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering FORECASTING POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS THROUGH LEADING INDICATORS TO PROJECT OUTCOME A Thesis by JI WON CHOI... Guikema Head of Department, David Rosowsky May 2007 Major Subject: Civil Engineering iii ABSTRACT Forecasting Potential Project Risks through Leading Indicators to Project Outcome. (May 2007) Ji Won Choi, B.S., Han-Yang University...

  13. Petroleum supply monthly: December 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    Data are presented which describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States. Data are presented in two sections: Summary Statistics, presenting a time series of selected petroleum data on a U.S. level, and Detailed Statistics, presenting statistics for the most current month available as well as year to date.

  14. INFORMS `03, Atlanta GA, October 19-21 A Supply Chain Network EconomyA Supply Chain Network Economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    INFORMS `03, Atlanta GA, October 19-21 A Supply Chain Network EconomyA Supply Chain Network Economy, GA, October 19-22, 2003 Supply Chain EconomySupply Chain Economy Supply Chain Economy (SCE a supply chain economy ­ Comprising heterogeneous supply chains ­ Involving in production, distribution

  15. Effects of the drought on California electricity supply and demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Benenson, P.

    2010-01-01

    ELECTRICITY SUPPLY Hydroelectric Energy Supply Thermal-question. Data on PG&E's hydroelectric resources and Pacific27 Table 28 Table 29 Hydroelectric Supply in California Fuel

  16. Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Douches, David S.

    Point-trained models in a grid environment: Transforming a potato late blight risk forecast for use with the National Digital Forecast Database Kathleen Baker a, , Paul Roehsner a , Thomas Lake b , Douglas Rivet

  17. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  18. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  19. EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projects are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region.

  20. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    2000-01-01

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  1. Immobilized fluid membranes for gas separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Liu, Wei; Canfield, Nathan L; Zhang, Jian; Li, Xiaohong Shari; Zhang, Jiguang

    2014-03-18

    Provided herein are immobilized liquid membranes for gas separation, methods of preparing such membranes and uses thereof. In one example, the immobilized membrane includes a porous metallic host matrix and an immobilized liquid fluid (such as a silicone oil) that is immobilized within one or more pores included within the porous metallic host matrix. The immobilized liquid membrane is capable of selective permeation of one type of molecule (such as oxygen) over another type of molecule (such as water). In some examples, the selective membrane is incorporated into a device to supply oxygen from ambient air to the device for electrochemical reactions, and at the same time, to block water penetration and electrolyte loss from the device.

  2. Natural Gas Supply SBIR Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shoemaker, H.D.; Gwilliam, W.J.

    1995-07-01

    The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program was created in 1982 by Public Law 97-219 and reauthorized in 1992 until the year 2000 by Public Law 102-564. The purposes of the new law are to (1) expand and improve the SBIR program, 2) emphasize the program`s goal of increasing private sector commercialization of technology developed through Federal R&D, (3) increase small business participation in Federal R&D, and (4) improve the Federal Government`s dissemination of information concerning the SBIR program. DOE`s SBIR pro-ram has two features that are unique. In the 1995 DOE SBIR solicitation, the DOE Fossil Energy topics were: environmental technology for natural gas, oil, and coal; advanced recovery of oil; natural gas supply; natural gas utilization; advanced coal-based power systems; and advanced fossil fuels research. The subtopics for this solicitation`s Natural Gas Supply topic are (1) drilling, completion, and stimulation; (2) low-permeability Formations; (3) delivery and storage; and (4) natural gas upgrading.

  3. Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-09-29

    This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

  4. Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schultz, David

    : Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service of Applied Research Associates, Fairborn, Ohio In Preparation for Submission to Forecasters Forum, Weather and Forecasting 30 June 2006 Corresponding author address: Neil A. Stuart, National Weather Service, 10009 General

  5. Advanced isotope separation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-05-04

    The Study Group briefly reviewed the technical status of the three Advanced Isotope Separation (AIS) processes. It also reviewed the evaluation work that has been carried out by DOE's Process Evaluation Board (PEB) and the Union Carbide Corporation-Nuclear Division (UCCND). The Study Group briefly reviewed a recent draft assessment made for DOE staff of the nonproliferation implications of the AIS technologies. The staff also very briefly summarized the status of GCEP and Advanced Centrifuge development. The Study Group concluded that: (1) there has not been sufficient progress to provide a firm scientific, technical or economic basis on which to select one of the three competing AIS processes for full-scale engineering development at this time; and (2) however, should budgetary restraints or other factors force such a selection, we believe that the evaluation process that is being carried out by the PEB provides the best basis available for making a decision. The Study Group recommended that: (1) any decisions on AIS processes should include a comparison with gas centrifuge processes, and should not be made independently from the plutonium isotope program; (2) in evaluating the various enrichment processes, all applicable costs (including R and D and sales overhead) and an appropriate discounting approach should be included in order to make comparisons on a private industry basis; (3) if the three AIS programs continue with limited resources, the work should be reoriented to focus only on the most pressing technical problems; and (4) if a decision is made to develop the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation process, the solid collector option should be pursued in parallel to alleviate the potential program impact of liquid collector thermal control problems.

  6. Method for separating boron isotopes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rockwood, Stephen D. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1978-01-01

    A method of separating boron isotopes .sup.10 B and .sup.11 B by laser-induced selective excitation and photodissociation of BCl.sub.3 molecules containing a particular boron isotope. The photodissociation products react with an appropriate chemical scavenger and the reaction products may readily be separated from undissociated BCl.sub.3, thus effecting the desired separation of the boron isotopes.

  7. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore »to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  8. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  9. Safety of transformers, reactors, power supply units and similar products for supply voltages up to 1 100 V part 2-16 : particular requirements and tests for switch mode power supply units and transformers for switch mode power supply units

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Electrotechnical Commission. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    Safety of transformers, reactors, power supply units and similar products for supply voltages up to 1 100 V

  10. Upgrading the TFTR Transrex Power Supplies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. E. Lawson, R. Marsala, S. Ramakrishnan, X. Zhao, P. Sichta

    2009-05-29

    In order to provide improved and expanded experimental capabilities, the existing Transrex power supplies at PPPL are to be upgraded and modernized. Each of the 39 power supplies consists of two six pulse silicon controlled rectifier sections forming a twelve pulse power supply. The first modification is to split each supply into two independent six pulse supplies by replacing the existing obsolete twelve pulse firing generator with two commercially available six pulse firing generators. The second change replaces the existing control link with a faster system, with greater capacity, which will allow for independent control of all 78 power supply sections. The third change replaces the existing Computer Automated Measurement and Control (CAMAC) based fault detector with an Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) compatible unit, eliminating the obsolete CAMAC modules. Finally the remaining relay logic and interfaces to the "Hardwired Control System" will be replaces with a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC).

  11. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  12. Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benedick, W.B.; Graham, R.A.; Morosin, B.

    1987-04-20

    A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolyte rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active. 2 figs.

  13. Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benedick, W.B.; Graham, R.A.; Morosin, B.

    1988-11-08

    A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolytes rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active. 2 figs.

  14. Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benedick, William B. (Albuquerque, NM); Graham, Robert A. (Los Lunas, NM); Morosin, Bruno (Albuquerque, NM)

    1988-01-01

    A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolytes rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active.

  15. Petroleum supply annual 1995: Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-05-01

    The {ital Petroleum Supply Annual} contains information on supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. It reflects data collected from the petroleum industry during 1995 through monthly surveys, and it is divided into 2 volumes. This volume contains three sections: summary statistics, detailed statistics, and selected refinery statistics, each with final annual data. (The other volume contains final statistics for each month and replaces data previously published in the {ital Petroleum Supply Monthly}).

  16. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  17. Organic contaminant separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Del Mar, P.

    1993-12-28

    A process is presented of sample preparation prior to analysis for the concentration of an organic contaminant in an aqueous medium by (a) passing an initial aqueous medium including a minor amount of the organic contaminant through a composite tube comprised of a blend of a polyolefin and a polyester, the composite tube having an internal diameter of from about 0.1 to about 2.0 millimeters and being of sufficient length to permit the organic contaminant to adhere to the composite tube, (b) passing a solvent through the composite tube. The solvent is capable of separating the adhered organic contaminant from the composite tube. Further, an extraction apparatus is presented for sample preparation prior to analysis for the concentration of an organic contaminant in an aqueous medium. The apparatus includes a composite tube comprised of a blend of a polyolefin and a polyester. The composite tube has an internal diameter of from about 0.1 to about 2.0 millimeters and has sufficient length to permit an organic contaminant contained within an aqueous medium passed therethrough to adhere to the composite tube. 2 figures.

  18. Adjudication of a Contract for the Supply and Installation of an Uninterruptible Power Supply for the CERN Computer Centre

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1977-01-01

    Adjudication of a Contract for the Supply and Installation of an Uninterruptible Power Supply for the CERN Computer Centre

  19. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    systems absorb large amounts of hydroelectric power. Duringthat snow melts and hydroelectric power supply increases andfrom hydroelectric dams or discards renewable power [53].

  20. LQG Dynamic Positioning for a Supply Vessel

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansen, Scott Ron

    8  2.1.   Vessel9  2.1.2.   3 DOF Marine Vessel Equations ofPositioning for a Supply Vessel A Thesis submitted in

  1. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    order: cost comparison for the deep-simple, zero wind,expected wind supply, instead of averaging the cost savingsintegration of wind power. Cost, Utilization, Investment

  2. Importance of Biomass Production and Supply

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    is very important. * New, integrated approaches, especially in feedstock supply and logistics with production and conversion, are being developed with partners. 3 | Bioenergy...

  3. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

  4. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01

    liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

  5. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    1.2 Limitations to Large-Scale Renewable EnergyImpacts of Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3 Coupling Renewable Energy with Deferrable

  6. Concentration and separation of biological organisms by ultrafiltration and dielectrophoresis

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simmons, Blake A. (San Francisco, CA); Hill, Vincent R. (Decatur, GA); Fintschenko, Yolanda (Livermore, CA); Cummings, Eric B. (Livermore, CA)

    2010-10-12

    Disclosed is a method for monitoring sources of public water supply for a variety of pathogens by using a combination of ultrafiltration techniques together dielectrophoretic separation techniques. Because water-borne pathogens, whether present due to "natural" contamination or intentional introduction, would likely be present in drinking water at low concentrations when samples are collected for monitoring or outbreak investigations, an approach is needed to quickly and efficiently concentrate and separate particles such as viruses, bacteria, and parasites in large volumes of water (e.g., 100 L or more) while simultaneously reducing the sample volume to levels sufficient for detecting low concentrations of microbes (e.g., <10 mL). The technique is also designed to screen the separated microbes based on specific conductivity and size.

  7. Advanced Accessory Power Supply Topologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marlino, L.D.

    2010-06-15

    This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) began December 8, 2000 and ended September 30, 2009. The total funding provided by the Participant (General Motors Advanced Technology Vehicles [GM]) during the course of the CRADA totaled $1.2M enabling the Contractor (UT-Battelle, LLC [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a.k.a. ORNL]) to contribute significantly to the joint project. The initial task was to work with GM on the feasibility of developing their conceptual approach of modifying major components of the existing traction inverter/drive to develop low cost, robust, accessory power. Two alternate methods for implementation were suggested by ORNL and both were proven successful through simulations and then extensive testing of prototypes designed and fabricated during the project. This validated the GM overall concept. Moreover, three joint U.S. patents were issued and subsequently licensed by GM. After successfully fulfilling the initial objective, the direction and duration of the CRADA was modified and GM provided funding for two additional tasks. The first new task was to provide the basic development for implementing a cascaded inverter technology into hybrid vehicles (including plug-in hybrid, fuel cell, and electric). The second new task was to continue the basic development for implementing inverter and converter topologies and new technology assessments for hybrid vehicle applications. Additionally, this task was to address the use of high temperature components in drive systems. Under this CRADA, ORNL conducted further research based on GM’s idea of using the motor magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply that is nongalvanically coupled to the terminals of the high voltage dc-link battery of hybrid vehicles. In order not to interfere with the motor’s torque, ORNL suggested to use the zero-sequence, highfrequency harmonics carried by the main fundamental motor current for producing the accessory power. Two studies were conducted at ORNL. One was to put an additional winding in the motor slots to magnetically link with the high frequency of the controllable zero-sequence stator currents that do not produce any zero-sequence harmonic torques. The second approach was to utilize the corners of the square stator punching for the high-frequency transformers of the dc/dc inverter. Both approaches were successful. This CRADA validated the feasibility of GM’s desire to use the motor’s magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply. Three joint U.S. patents with GM were issued to ORNL and GM by the U.S. Patent Office for the research results produced by this CRADA.

  8. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming963 1.969 1.979 1.988 1.996 2.003Summer 2013 Outlook for

  9. Separation process using microchannel technology

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tonkovich, Anna Lee (Dublin, OH); Perry, Steven T. (Galloway, OH); Arora, Ravi (Dublin, OH); Qiu, Dongming (Bothell, WA); Lamont, Michael Jay (Hilliard, OH); Burwell, Deanna (Cleveland Heights, OH); Dritz, Terence Andrew (Worthington, OH); McDaniel, Jeffrey S. (Columbus, OH); Rogers, Jr.; William A. (Marysville, OH); Silva, Laura J. (Dublin, OH); Weidert, Daniel J. (Lewis Center, OH); Simmons, Wayne W. (Dublin, OH); Chadwell, G. Bradley (Reynoldsburg, OH)

    2009-03-24

    The disclosed invention relates to a process and apparatus for separating a first fluid from a fluid mixture comprising the first fluid. The process comprises: (A) flowing the fluid mixture into a microchannel separator in contact with a sorption medium, the fluid mixture being maintained in the microchannel separator until at least part of the first fluid is sorbed by the sorption medium, removing non-sorbed parts of the fluid mixture from the microchannel separator; and (B) desorbing first fluid from the sorption medium and removing desorbed first fluid from the microchannel separator. The process and apparatus are suitable for separating nitrogen or methane from a fluid mixture comprising nitrogen and methane. The process and apparatus may be used for rejecting nitrogen in the upgrading of sub-quality methane.

  10. Separators - Technology review: Ceramic based separators for secondary batteries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nestler, Tina; Schmid, Robert; Münchgesang, Wolfram; Bazhenov, Vasilii; Meyer, Dirk C.; Schilm, Jochen; Leisegang, Tilmann

    2014-06-16

    Besides a continuous increase of the worldwide use of electricity, the electric energy storage technology market is a growing sector. At the latest since the German energy transition ('Energiewende') was announced, technological solutions for the storage of renewable energy have been intensively studied. Storage technologies in various forms are commercially available. A widespread technology is the electrochemical cell. Here the cost per kWh, e. g. determined by energy density, production process and cycle life, is of main interest. Commonly, an electrochemical cell consists of an anode and a cathode that are separated by an ion permeable or ion conductive membrane - the separator - as one of the main components. Many applications use polymeric separators whose pores are filled with liquid electrolyte, providing high power densities. However, problems arise from different failure mechanisms during cell operation, which can affect the integrity and functionality of these separators. In the case of excessive heating or mechanical damage, the polymeric separators become an incalculable security risk. Furthermore, the growth of metallic dendrites between the electrodes leads to unwanted short circuits. In order to minimize these risks, temperature stable and non-flammable ceramic particles can be added, forming so-called composite separators. Full ceramic separators, in turn, are currently commercially used only for high-temperature operation systems, due to their comparably low ion conductivity at room temperature. However, as security and lifetime demands increase, these materials turn into focus also for future room temperature applications. Hence, growing research effort is being spent on the improvement of the ion conductivity of these ceramic solid electrolyte materials, acting as separator and electrolyte at the same time. Starting with a short overview of available separator technologies and the separator market, this review focuses on ceramic-based separators. Two prominent examples, the lithium-ion and sodium-sulfur battery, are described to show the current stage of development. New routes are presented as promising technologies for safe and long-life electrochemical storage cells.

  11. Gas separation membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wynn, Nicholas P (Palo Alto, CA); Fulton, Donald A. (Fairfield, CA)

    2009-03-31

    A gas-separation membrane module assembly and a gas-separation process using the assembly. The assembly includes a set of tubes, each containing gas-separation membranes, arranged within a housing. The housing contains a tube sheet that divides the space within the housing into two gas-tight spaces. A permeate collection system within the housing gathers permeate gas from the tubes for discharge from the housing.

  12. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  13. Laser separation of uranium chosen for scaleup. [Atomic vapor laser isotope separation, molecular laser isotope separation, and plasma separation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rawls, R.L.

    1982-05-17

    Atomic vapor laser isotope separation (AVLIS) has been selected by the Department of Energy to go into large-scale engineering development and demonstration over two other advanced technologies, molecular laser isotope separation and plasma separation. DOE will continue to support development of another uranium enrichment technology, gas centrifugation. By or around 1990, the most promising gas centrifuge technique will be compared to the further developed AVLIS process, and a selection will be made between the two to replace the current technology, gaseous diffusion. The AVLIS process, plasma separation, and molecular laser isotope separation use the elective absorption of radiation of a particular energy level by the /sup 235/U isotope. The plasma separation process selectively energizes /sup 235/U by ion cyclotron resonance. The AVLIS and molecular laser isotope separation processes both use a carefully tuned laser to excite /sup 235/U isotope selectively. In the AVLIS process, uranium metal feed material is melted and vaporized to form an atomic uranium vapor stream. When this vapor stream passes through the beam of copper vapor lasers, the /sup 235/U atoms absorb the light and become ionized. These ionized atoms are collected by electromagnetic fields while the neutral /sup 238/U atoms pass through the magnetic field and are collected as tailings. The AVLIS process has the potential for significantly reducing the cost of enriching uranium. The status of dvelopment, cost, advantages and drawbacks of the five processes, (gaseous diffusion, gas centrifugation, AVLIS, molecular laser separation, plasma separation) are discussed. (ATT)

  14. Laser separation of uranium chosen for scaleup. [Atomic vapor laser isotope separation, molecular laser isotope separation plasma separation process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rawls, R.L.

    1982-05-17

    Atomic vapor laser isotope separation (AVLIS) has been selected by the Department of Energy to go into large-scale engineering development and demonstration over two other advanced technologies, molecular laser isotope separation and plasma separation. DOE will continue to support development of another uranium enrichment technology, gas centrifugation. By or around 1990, the most promising gas centrifuge technique will be compared to the further developed AVLIS process, and a selection will be made between the two to replace the current technology, gaseous diffusion. The AVLIS process, plasma separation, and molecular laser isotope separation use the selective absorption of radiation of a particular energy level by the /sup 235/U isotope. The plasma separation process selectively energizes /sup 235/U by ion cyclotron resonance. The AVLIS and molecular laser isotope separation processes both use a carefully tuned laser to excite /sup 235/U isotope selectively. In the AVLIS process, uranium metal feed material is melted and vaporized to from an atomic uranium vapor stream. When this vapor stream passes through the beam of copper vapor lasers, the /sup 235/U atoms absorb the light and become ionized. These ionized atoms are collected by electromagnetic fields while the neutral /sup 238/U atoms pass through the magnetic field and are collected as tailings. The AVLIS process has the potential for significantly reducing the cost of enriching uranium. The status of development, cost, advantages and drawbacks of the five processes (gaseous diffusion, gas centrifugation, AVLIS, molecular laser separation, plasma separation) are discussed. (ATT)

  15. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  16. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  17. Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk Anna Nagurney as well as demand side risk are included in the formulation. The model consists of three tiers of decision chain network equilibrium model with electronic com- merce and with supply side and demand side risk

  18. SUMMER 2007 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SUMMER 2007 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK DRAFTSTAFFREPORT May ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION B. B assessment of the capability of the physical electricity system to provide power to meet electricity demand

  19. Transportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saldin, Dilano

    trends in China, India, Eastern Europe and other developing areas. China oil demand +104% by 2030, India 2000 2020 2040 2060 Supply demand Energy UWM-CUTS 14 U.S. DOE viewpoint, source:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/features/longterm.pdf#search='oilTransportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS//2050/energy05

  20. Heat Supply Who What Where and -Why

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    ............................................... 7 1.5 The cost of heat .......................................................... 9 1.6 Combined heat and power plants (CHP) and other heat technologies ...................................10 2Heat Supply in Denmark Who What Where and - Why #12;Title: Heat Supply in Denmark - Who What Where

  1. EXOTIC OPTIONS FOR INTERRUPTIBLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CONTRACTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    deregulated electricity markets have shown very little demand elasticity. Price spikes have reached $7000EXOTIC OPTIONS FOR INTERRUPTIBLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CONTRACTS RAJNISH KAMAT and SHMUEL S. OREN of financial contracts for the supply and procurement of interruptible electricity service. While the contract

  2. Optimal Trading Strategy Supply/Demand Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gabrieli, John

    prices through the changes in their supply/demand.2 Thus, to study how market participants trade can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices: November 15, 2004. This Draft: April 8, 2006 Abstract The supply/demand of a security in the market

  3. Response to changes in demand/supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Response to changes in demand/supply through improved marketing 21.2 http with the mill consuming 450 000 m3 , amounting to 30% of total plywood log demand in 1995. The composites board, statistics of demand and supply of wood, costs and competitiveness were analysed. The reactions

  4. Response to changes in demand/supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Response to changes in demand/supply through improved marketing 21.2 #12;#12;111 Impacts of changes log demand in 1995. The composites board mills operating in Korea took advantage of flexibility environment changes on the production mix, some economic indications, statistics of demand and supply of wood

  5. Sustainable Supply Chain Networks Sustainable Cities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Chain Networks for Sustainable Cities #12;Pollution and Environmental Impacts In the US aloneSustainable Supply Chain Networks for Sustainable Cities Anna Nagurney John F. Smith Memorial Nagurney Sustainable Supply Chain Networks for Sustainable Cities #12;Acknowledgments I would like to thank

  6. 3000 and 3000RM Uninterruptible Power Supplies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berns, Hans-Gerd

    CFR 3000 and 3000RM Uninterruptible Power Supplies From Alpha Technologies !!!!! Operator's Manual #12;!!!!! Operator's Manual !!!!! CFR 3000 and 3000RM Uninterruptible Power Supplies ALARM OFF MANUAL. Place a warning label on the electrical panel to tell emergency personnel an UninterruptiblePower

  7. Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment for 2019 Final Report May 7, 2014 Council Document Number 2014-04 #12;2 Executive Summary The Pacific Northwest's power supply is expected resources: demand-side actions and emergency resources used only during shortages. The assumption about

  8. Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing Under Price and Quality Competition Anna Nagurney1, Dong Li1, and Ladimer S. Nagurney2 1Isenberg School of Management University of Massachusetts Amherst Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing #12;Acknowledgments This research

  9. Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing Under Price and Quality Competition Anna Nagurney1 , Dong (Michelle) Li1 , and Ladimer S. Nagurney2 1Isenberg School of Management University of Massachusetts Amherst Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing #12;Acknowledgments This research

  10. Supply Chain Supernetworks Suppliers Risk Diversification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Supernetworks with Suppliers Risk Diversification June Dong School of Business State #12;Reliable Supply Chain Starts from reliable suppliers Supplier selection multicriteria Benefits vs.Risks #12;Suppliers Selection Single source Improved bargaining power to reduce costs Decreased effort

  11. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  12. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  14. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  16. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  17. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01

    the AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oibasis-adjusted NYMEX crude oil futures con tracts fo r 2010more than the reference case oil price forecast for that

  18. Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bush, Sarah, 1973-

    2003-01-01

    Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

  19. ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    effort to estimate potential severe weather societal impacts based on a combination of probabilistic forecasts and high resolution population data. For equal severe weather threat, events that occur over1 ESTIMATING POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOCIETAL IMPACTS USING PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ISSUED

  20. Generating day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Buxi, Gurkaran

    2012-01-01

    0400Z on the 18 th the wind is forecast at 15Knots blowingforecast for the day for the quarter-hour period , representing the windthe forecast is valid. The TAF predicts the wind speed, wind

  1. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  2. Error growth in poor ECMWF forecasts over the contiguous United States 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Modlin, Norman Ray

    1993-01-01

    Successive improvements to the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting model have resulted in improved forecast performance over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). While the overall performance of the model ...

  3. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  4. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  5. Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

    2002-01-01

    Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

  7. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. Int. J.beam and global solar radiation data. Solar Energy , 81:768–forecasting of solar radiation data: a review. International

  8. An Intelligent Solar Powered Battery Buffered EV Charging Station with Solar Electricity Forecasting and EV Charging Load Projection Functions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Hengbing; Burke, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    power source from inherent intermittent solar PV power.B. Solar PV Electricity Forecasting Fig. 1. Charging stationForecasting Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic System Using

  9. Coal slurry fuel supply and purge system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McDowell, Robert E. (Fairview, PA); Basic, Steven L. (Hornell, NY); Smith, Russel M. (North East, PA)

    1994-01-01

    A coal slurry fuel supply and purge system for a locomotive engines is disclosed which includes a slurry recirculation path, a stand-by path for circulating slurry during idle or states of the engine when slurry fuel in not required by the engine, and an engine header fluid path connected to the stand-by path, for supplying and purging slurry fuel to and from fuel injectors. A controller controls the actuation of valves to facilitate supply and purge of slurry to and from the fuel injectors. A method for supplying and purging coal slurry in a compression ignition engine is disclosed which includes controlling fluid flow devices and valves in a plurality of fluid paths to facilitate continuous slurry recirculation and supply and purge of or slurry based on the operating state of the engine.

  10. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  11. Separator material for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cieslak, Wendy R. (1166 Laurel Loop NE., Albuquerque, NM 87122); Storz, Leonard J. (2215 Ambassador NE., Albuquerque, NM 87112)

    1991-01-01

    An electrochemical cell characterized as utilizing an aramid fiber as a separator material. The aramid fibers are especially suited for lithium/thionyl chloride battery systems. The battery separator made of aramid fibers possesses superior mechanical strength, chemical resistance, and is flame retardant.

  12. Separator material for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cieslak, W.R.; Storz, L.J.

    1991-03-26

    An electrochemical cell is characterized as utilizing an aramid fiber as a separator material. The aramid fibers are especially suited for lithium/thionyl chloride battery systems. The battery separator made of aramid fibers possesses superior mechanical strength, chemical resistance, and is flame retardant.

  13. Three phase downhole separator process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cognata, Louis John (Baytown, TX)

    2008-06-24

    Three Phase Downhole Separator Process (TPDSP) is a process which results in the separation of all three phases, (1) oil, (2) gas, and (3) water, at the downhole location in the well bore, water disposal injection downhole, and oil and gas production uphole.

  14. Vision 2020: 2000 Separations Roadmap

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adler, Stephen; Beaver, Earl; Bryan, Paul; Robinson, Sharon; Watson, Jack

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the results of four workshops on the technology barriers, research needs, and priorities of the chemical, agricultural, petroleum, and pharmaceutical industries as they relate to separation technologies utilizing adsorbents, crystallization, distillation, extraction, membranes, separative reactors, ion exchange, bioseparations, and dilute solutions.

  15. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  16. Short-Term Load Forecasting at the Local Level using Smart Meter Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tronci, Enrico

    ]; electric vehicle integration [8]; and microgrid and virtual power plant applications [7], [11]. In addition, forecast uncertainty, power demand. I. INTRODUCTION Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the forecasting is considered to be critical for power system operation, particularly for energy balancing, energy market

  17. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  18. Forecasting the Hourly Ontario Energy Price by Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cañizares, Claudio A.

    for forecasting the Spanish electricity market prices. On the other hand, ARIMA, dynamic regression and transfer been used to forecast the Spanish market prices [7], [9], Californian market prices [9], Leipzig power have been used for forecasting the Spanish and Californian market prices [11] and the PJM market prices

  19. Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds THIERRY BERGOT Abstract--Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset

  20. Atmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 13731382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Irwin, Mark E.

    2005-01-01

    conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed, defining the spatial­temporal extent of episodes of dangerous air quality, forecasting urban and areaAtmospheric Environment 39 (2005) 1373­1382 A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast