Sample records for forecast separate supply

  1. Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...

  2. A supply forecasting model for Zimbabwe's corn sector: a time series and structural analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Makaudze, Ephias

    1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Zimbabwean government utilizes the corn supply forecasts to establish producer prices for the following growing season, estimate corn storage and handling costs, project corn import needs and associated costs, and to assess the Grain Marketing...

  3. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  4. The addition of a US Rare Earth Element (REE) supply-demand model improves the characterization and scope of the United States Department of Energy's effort to forecast US REE Supply and Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mancco, Richard

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents the development of a new US Rare Earth Element (REE) Supply-Demand Model for the explicit forecast of US REE supply and demand in the 2010 to 2025 time period. In the 2010 Department of Energy (DOE) ...

  5. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels DataDepartment of Energy Your Density Isn'tOriginEducationVideoStrategic Safety GoalsEnergyCompliance with OrdertheMatthew Langholtz

  6. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

  7. Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wickham, Richard Robert

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...

  8. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  9. Econometric Models of Discrete/Continuous Supply Decisions under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hanemann, W. Michael; Tsur, Yacov

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    357-382. XcFadden, D. "Econometric Net Supply Systems forpoint of view of the econometric investigator. the producerin New Directions in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting in

  10. Certified Professional in Supply Management (CPSM) & Certified in Supply Management (CSM) Exam Preparation Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, Xiaodong

    -Taking Hints and Tips Exam 2 Content Forecasting Logistics Materials and Inventory Management OrganizationCertified Professional in Supply Management (CPSM) & Certified in Supply Management (CSM) Exam for member companies of the Rutgers Center for Supply Chain Management. $425 for non-members This one day

  11. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,”forecasting of solar- radiation data,” Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:

  12. An econometric analysis and forecasting of Seoul office market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Kyungmin

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines and forecasts the Seoul office market, which is going to face a big supply in the next few years. After reviewing several previous studies on the Dynamic model and the Seoul Office market, this thesis ...

  13. Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

  14. FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keller, Arturo A.

    resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

  15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , Gary Occhiuzzo, and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Don Schultz and Doug Kemmer developed. California Energy Commission, Electricity Supply Analysis Division. Publication Number: CEC2002012001CMFVI

  16. Thirty-year solid waste generation forecast for facilities at SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The information supplied by this 30-year solid waste forecast has been compiled as a source document to the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement (WMEIS). The WMEIS will help to select a sitewide strategic approach to managing present and future Savannah River Site (SRS) waste generated from ongoing operations, environmental restoration (ER) activities, transition from nuclear production to other missions, and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) programs. The EIS will support project-level decisions on the operation of specific treatment, storage, and disposal facilities within the near term (10 years or less). In addition, the EIS will provide a baseline for analysis of future waste management activities and a basis for the evaluation of the specific waste management alternatives. This 30-year solid waste forecast will be used as the initial basis for the EIS decision-making process. The Site generates and manages many types and categories of waste. With a few exceptions, waste types are divided into two broad groups-high-level waste and solid waste. High-level waste consists primarily of liquid radioactive waste, which is addressed in a separate forecast and is not discussed further in this document. The waste types discussed in this solid waste forecast are sanitary waste, hazardous waste, low-level mixed waste, low-level radioactive waste, and transuranic waste. As activities at SRS change from primarily production to primarily decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration, the volume of each waste s being managed will change significantly. This report acknowledges the changes in Site Missions when developing the 30-year solid waste forecast.

  17. Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petty, S.; Porro, G.

    2007-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.

  18. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  19. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  20. Technology Forecasting Scenario Development

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

  1. Rainfall-River Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    ;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack

  2. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  3. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  4. Water Supply Planning Using an Expert Geographic Information System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McKinney, Daene C.; Burgin, John F.; Maidment, David R.

    supply and demand data; and a network flow solver, to balance the flows in networks developed by the expert GIS with input from a water resource analyst. Commonly available water demand forecasts and water supply data are used in this new planning tool...

  5. Probabilistic manpower forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Koonce, James Fitzhugh

    1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...

  6. SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

  7. Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gratton, Claudio

    Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T), University of Lome, 114 Rue Agbalepedogan, BP: 20679, Lome, Togo e Center for Agricultural & Energy Policy model of potential biomass supply that incorporates the effect of biological control on crop choice

  8. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uranium Processing Facility UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be...

  9. Long Term Forecast ofLong Term Forecast of TsunamisTsunamis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    : ImproveImprove NOAANOAA''ss understandingunderstanding and forecast capabilityand forecast capability inin

  10. Steam System Forecasting and Management

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    '. This and the complex and integrated nature of the plants energy balance makes steam system forecasting and management essential for optimum use of the plant's energy. This paper discusses the method used by Union carbide to accomplish effective forecasting...

  11. Consensus Coal Production Forecast for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks References 27 #12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2009 iii List of Tables 1. W.Va. Coal Production

  12. Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Balandran, Juan

    2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

    EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran jmbg@hotmail.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...

  13. timber quality Modelling and forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe Forest and timber quality in Europe Modelling and forecasting yield and quality in Europe M E F Y Q U E #12;Valuing and the UK ­ are working closely together to develop a model to help forecast timber growth, yield, quality

  14. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    electricity demand forecast means that the region's electricity needs would grow by 5,343 average megawattsDemand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining the need for new electricity resources and helping

  15. Opportunities for LNG supply infrastructure and demand growth in US and International markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Connell, Richard Perry

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Countries are looking beyond their borders for options to satiate a forecasted increase in natural gas consumption. A strong option for importing natural gas is by way of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain where ...

  16. METEOROLOGICAL Weather and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Weather and Forecasting EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary and interpretation of information from National Weather Service watches and warnings by10 decision makers such an outlier to the regional severe weather climatology. An analysis of the synoptic and13 mesoscale

  17. Solar forecasting review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Inman, Richard Headen

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Quantifying PV power output variability,” Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output

  18. How USDA Forecasts Production and Supply/Demand 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, David P.; O'Brien, Daniel; Welch, Mark

    2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    estimate of planted and harvested acres. This survey uses two different samples, called frames. The first is the area frame, which is the land area of the United States. This ensures that the population of farmers is covered by the survey. The second....? National Agricultural Statistics Service and Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board. Miscellaneous Publication No. 1554, March 1999. Educational programs of the Texas AgriLife Extension Service are open to all people without...

  19. Why Supply Chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Why supply chain explains the importance of supply chains. It includes an introduction to ERP as designed by SAP.

  20. Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick James

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan

  1. Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elkins, R.D.

    1988-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short-notice corrections, which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. The model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.

  2. Ultracapacitor separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wei, Chang (Niskayuna, NY); Jerabek, Elihu Calvin (Glenmont, NY); LeBlanc, Jr., Oliver Harris (Schenectady, NY)

    2001-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

    An ultracapacitor includes two solid, nonporous current collectors, two porous electrodes separating the collectors, a porous separator between the electrodes and an electrolyte occupying the pores in the electrodes and separator. The electrolyte is a polar aprotic organic solvent and a salt. The porous separator comprises a wet laid cellulosic material.

  3. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))

    1994-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.

  4. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  5. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  6. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005.................................................................................................................................3 PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC PLANNING AREA ........................................................................................9 Commercial Sector

  7. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL

  8. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  10. NNSA TRITIUM SUPPLY CHAIN

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wyrick, Steven [Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC, USA; Cordaro, Joseph [Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC, USA; Founds, Nanette [National Nuclear Security Administration, Albuquerque, NM, USA; Chambellan, Curtis [National Nuclear Security Administration, Albuquerque, NM, USA

    2013-08-21T23:59:59.000Z

    Savannah River Site plays a critical role in the Tritium Production Supply Chain for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The entire process includes: • Production of Tritium Producing Burnable Absorber Rods (TPBARs) at the Westinghouse WesDyne Nuclear Fuels Plant in Columbia, South Carolina • Production of unobligated Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) at the United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC) in Portsmouth, Ohio • Irradiation of TPBARs with the LEU at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Watts Bar Reactor • Extraction of tritium from the irradiated TPBARs at the Tritium Extraction Facility (TEF) at Savannah River Site • Processing the tritium at the Savannah River Site, which includes removal of nonhydrogen species and separation of the hydrogen isotopes of protium, deuterium and tritium.

  11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission's final forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural gas demand Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand

  12. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    the California Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand

  13. REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Energy Commission staff's revised forecasts for 2012­2022 electricity consumption, peak, and natural Electricity, demand, consumption, forecast, weather normalization, peak, natural gas, self generation REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility

  14. NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce

  15. Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    & Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast ­­ Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman

  16. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  17. ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting Executive

  18. Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Robert Stephen

    Mathematical Forecasting Donald I. Good Technical Report 47 September 1989 Computational Logic Inc the physical behavior of computer programs can reduce these risks for software engineering in the same way that it does for aerospace and other fields of engineering. Present forecasting capabilities for computer

  19. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  20. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project

  1. Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha

  2. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  3. QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    QUALIFIED FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY SPATIALLY DISPERSED GRID- CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS: The contribution of power production by Photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly of the electricity grids and for energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output

  4. Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goto, Susumu

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

  5. Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

  6. Compressed Air Supply Efficiency 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joseph, B.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    COMPRESSED AIR SUPPLY EFFICENCY Babu Joseph, Ph.D., P.E. Engineer Southern California Edison Irwindale, CA ABSTRACT This project, under contract from California Energy Commission, developed the CASE (Compressed Air Supply Efficiency...

  7. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 4 report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.; Hadder, G.R.; Leiby, P.N.; Lee, R.; Davis, R.M.

    1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Department of Navy's Maritime Strategy is designed to maintain military readiness and the ability to operate in all major theaters of the world. Mobility fuels required for sea, air, and land operations are vital components of the Navy's peacetime and wartime strategies. The purpose of the Navy's Mobility Fuels Technology Program is to understand fuel supply and fuel property impacts on Navy equipment performance and fleet readiness and operations. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has assisted the Department of Navy in developing and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel availability, quality, and relative price, as well as evaluating options to increase fuel supplies during world oil supply disruptions. Publicly available models developed by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy were selected as the foundation of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System (NMFFS). The NMFFS was enhanced as ORNL reviewed data on world oil reserves, production and prices, trends in crude oil and refined product quality, and changes in refinery process technology. The system was used to analyze the availability, quality, and relative price of military fuels that could be produced in several domestic and foreign refining regions under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and two hypothetical world crude oil disruption scenarios in the year 1995. 25 refs., 11 figs., 29 tabs.

  8. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Trepte, Kai

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Prediction Markets hold the promise of improving the forecasting process. Research has shown that Prediction Markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts. Our research concentrated on analyzing Prediction ...

  9. Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

    This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

  10. Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Goodman, Theodore H.

    Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...

  11. Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    forecasting methods and better integration of advanced wind power forecasts into system and plant operations and wind power plants) ­ Review and assess current practices Propose and test new and improved approachesWind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud

  12. 1995 shipment review & five year forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D.J. Jr. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Inc., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes the 1995 battery shipment review and five year forecast for the battery market. Historical data is discussed.

  13. Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

  14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility Planning Area Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low

  15. Petroleum Supply Monthly

    Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    adjustments, minus stock change, minus refinery and blender net inputs, minus exports. Net receipts are added as a component of supply at the PAD District level. Crude oil...

  16. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    , regression, artificial intelligence. 1. Introduction Accurate models for electric power load forecasting to make important decisions including decisions on pur- chasing and generating electric power, load for different operations within a utility company. The natures 269 #12;270 APPLIED MATHEMATICS FOR POWER SYSTEMS

  17. Calculator simplifies field production forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, B.

    1982-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A method of forecasting future field production from an assumed average well production schedule and drilling schedule has been programmed for the HP-41C hand-held programmable computer. No longer must tedious row summations be made by hand for staggered well production schedules. Details of the program are provided.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

    2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

  19. Money, Prices and Liquidity Effects: Separating Demand from Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chadha, Jagjit S; Corrado, Luisa; Sun, Qi

    ?nance premium, such as long term corporate spreads over benchmark government bond rates and ?nd little di¤erence in the results. These results are omitted from this paper but are available on request. 18 setting of Uhlig (2005). However...

  20. Supply chain planning decisions under demand uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huang, Yanfeng Anna

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Sales and operational planning that incorporates unconstrained demand forecasts has been expected to improve long term corporate profitability. Companies are considering such unconstrained demand forecasts in their decisions ...

  1. Particle separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Moosmuller, Hans (Reno, NV); Chakrabarty, Rajan K. (Reno, NV); Arnott, W. Patrick (Reno, NV)

    2011-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Embodiments of a method for selecting particles, such as based on their morphology, is disclosed. In a particular example, the particles are charged and acquire different amounts of charge, or have different charge distributions, based on their morphology. The particles are then sorted based on their flow properties. In a specific example, the particles are sorted using a differential mobility analyzer, which sorts particles, at least in part, based on their electrical mobility. Given a population of particles with similar electrical mobilities, the disclosed process can be used to sort particles based on the net charge carried by the particle, and thus, given the relationship between charge and morphology, separate the particles based on their morphology.

  2. Agency. Any Federal agency or organization participating in the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning service.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    cyclone forecasting and warning service. Airport Radar Service Area (ARSA). Regulatory airspace/IFR-standard IFR separation; IFR/VFR-traffic advisories and conflict resolution; and VFR/VFR-traffic advisories and of the center of a tropical or subtropical cyclone obtained by means other than reconnaissance aircraft

  3. A B S T R A C T Forecasting in a risky situation is a very important

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    to assist in decision making. One of the fluctuated markets in stock exchange market is chemical market for textile industries and its very sensitive on oil prices and the demand and supply ratio. The main idea the model forecasts a relevant trend and can be used as a DSS for a manager. KEYWORDS: Efficient Market

  4. Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    . Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser, forecast consumers, water managers and reservoir operators, have difficulty interpreting such products in a risk management framework A. Sankarasubramanian,1 Upmanu Lall,2 Francisco Assis Souza Filho,3

  5. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's Possible for Renewable Energy: Grid IntegrationReport AvailableForecasting NREL researchers use

  6. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  7. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

  8. Improving supply chain resilience

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Leung, Elsa Hiu Man

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Due to the global expansion of Company A's supply chain network, it is becoming more vulnerable to many disruptions. These disruptions often incur additional costs; and require time to respond to and recover from these ...

  9. Compressed Air Supply Efficiency

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joseph, B.

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This project, under contract from California Energy Commission, developed the CASE (Compressed Air Supply Efficiency) Index as a stand-alone value for compressor central plant efficiency. This Index captures the overall efficiency of a compressed...

  10. Supply chain dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Barbosa, Ricardo Wagner Lopes, 1976-

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The strong bargaining power of major retailers and the higher requirements for speed, service excellence and customization have significantly contributed to transform the Supply Chain Management. These increasing challenges ...

  11. European supply chain study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Puri, Mohitkumar

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Introduction: Supply chain management has been defined as, "..a set of approaches utilized to efficiently integrate suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and stores, so that merchandise is produced and distributed at the ...

  12. Risk Management in Biopharmaceutical Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ma, Yao

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Supply Chain Risk Managementof Recent Work on Supply Chain Risk Management . . . . .M. , Supply chain risk management: Outlining an agenda for

  13. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    collects data on a variety of physical processes that impact the wind forecasts used by wind farms, system operators and other industry professionals. By having access to...

  15. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.

  16. Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.

    1981-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.

  17. Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sancetta, Alessio

    the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...

  18. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...

  19. U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kamat, Vineet R.

    U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring ­ Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview · Campus by campus · Snapshot in time ­ Not all projects · Construction coordination efforts

  20. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY

  1. Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Plale, Beth

    Dynamic Filtering and Mining Triggers in Mesoscale Meteorology Forecasting Nithya N. Vijayakumar {rramachandran, xli}@itsc.uah.edu Abstract-- Mesoscale meteorology forecasting as a data driven application Triggers, Data Mining, Stream Processing, Meteorology Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION Mesoscale meteorologists

  2. Petroleum Supply Monthly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  3. Petroleum supply monthly

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blends, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  4. 1992 five year battery forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Amistadi, D.

    1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Five-year trends for automotive and industrial batteries are projected. Topic covered include: SLI shipments; lead consumption; automotive batteries (5-year annual growth rates); industrial batteries (standby power and motive power); estimated average battery life by area/country for 1989; US motor vehicle registrations; replacement battery shipments; potential lead consumption in electric vehicles; BCI recycling rates for lead-acid batteries; US average car/light truck battery life; channels of distribution; replacement battery inventory end July; 2nd US battery shipment forecast.

  5. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directedAnnual SiteofEvaluating A PotentialJumpGermanFife Energy Park atFisiaFlorida:Forecast Energy Jump to:

  6. Hydrogen separation membranes - annual report for FY 2007.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, L.; Dorris, S. E.; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J.; Song, S. J.; Energy Systems

    2008-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry.

  7. MTBE/methanol supply

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simmons, R.E.

    1986-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    U.S. methanol production has become economically competitive with imports due to de-escalation of natural gas price from $3.07 mm Btu in January 1985 to $2.07 mm Btu by December 1985. This has reversed the earlier supply outlook when it appeared that additional methanol plants would shutdown due to low cost imports. Current gas cost in conjunction with projections for continued excess supply prompted DuPont to restart their 250 mm gpy plant at Beaumont, Texas. Other former producers are contemplating restarting idle units.

  8. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...

  9. Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts

  10. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2)). Projected production estimates of U.S. crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects U.S. domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  11. Alternative methods for forecasting GDP Dominique Gugan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    analysis. Better forecast performance for macroeconomic variables will lead to Paris School of Economics the speed of computers that can develop search algorithms from appropriate selection criteria, Devroye. 1 Introduction Forecasting macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation play an important role

  12. A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vertes, Akos

    APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts

  13. 2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Lijser, Peter

    2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, ­ Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. ­ 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California

  14. Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fischer, Luke D.

    2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

    /effective forecasts, and we have performed preliminary benchmarks on this algorithm. The preliminary benchmarks yield surprisingly effective results thus far?forecasts have been made 8-16 hours into the future with significant magnitude and trend accuracy, which is a...

  15. Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Genève, Université de

    Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time

  16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency SEPTEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SDV1REV CALIFORNIA The California Energy Demand 2014 ­ 2024 Revised Forecast, Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand and Methods

  17. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  18. ASME PTC 47 - IGCC performance testing: Air separation issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, A.R.

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Air separation units have been incorporated into the designs of many gasification combined cycle projects worldwide for the supply of pressurized oxygen and nitrogen. Pressurized gaseous oxygen at a purity usually above 95% by volume is supplied to the gasification unit to partially oxidized a hydrocarbon feed to yield syngas. Nitrogen streams are used for purging and inerting purposes or for the reactor. Several facilities have incorporated integration of air and/or nitrogen streams between the gas turbine and the air separation unit to improve overall facility cost, power output and efficiency. Gasification processes that are based on air as the oxidant source may also require an air separation unit to supply pressurized nitrogen for inerting and dry fuel transport. This paper reports on the progress of PTC 47's air separation subcommittee in defining test measurement boundaries and performance parameter definitions for the testing of an air separation unit as a subsystem of the gasification combined cycle facility.

  19. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  20. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    procurement process at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly and commercial sectors. Keywords Electricity demand, electricity consumption, demand forecast, weather

  2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and water pumping sectors. Mark Ciminelli forecasted energy for transportation, communication and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data at the California Public Utilities Commission. This forecast was produced with the Energy Commission demand forecast

  3. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  4. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  5. Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Islam, M. Saif

    Page 1 Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey

  6. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

  7. 1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

  8. Fiber Supply Associate Company Overview

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mazzotti, Frank

    materials acquisition, harvesting, logistics coordination, contract negotiations, and inventory management, Purchasing, Industrial Engineering, Operations management, Materials Management, Supply Chain) Authorized leadership roles such as Fiber Specialist, Fiber Supply Manager, Region Manager, Director, General Manager

  9. Protective supplied breathing air garment

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Childers, E.L.; Hortenau, E.F. von.

    1984-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

    A breathing air garment is disclosed for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants includes a suit and a separate head protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit rear torso panel permits access into the suit and is sealed with an adhesive sealing flap. 17 figs.

  10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    supervised data preparation. Steven Mac and Keith O'Brien prepared the historical energy consumption data. Nahid Movassagh forecasted consumption for the agriculture and water pumping sectors. Cynthia Rogers generation, conservation, energy efficiency, climate zone, investorowned, public, utilities, additional

  11. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  12. Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

    In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

  13. Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Emanuel, Kerry Andrew

    This paper explores the potential utility of seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts to a hypothetical property insurance firm whose insured properties are broadly distributed along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Using a ...

  14. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  15. Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...

  16. Future natural gas supply and demand balance. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hall, G.R.

    1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study assesses the future price and availability of natural gas as a boiler fuel in the United States. Analysis focuses on various forecasts for natural gas production and consumption through the year 2000. The forecasts reviewed predict that conventional lower-48 production will decline through the year 2000, but there is a wide divergence of opinion on the future availability of gas from unconventional sources of supply. Future gas prices are also uncertain, but as deregulation proceeds, the rolling-in of high cost sources of supply will diminish and gas will be priced more competitively with oil. Analysis presented in the report implies that it will be prudent to maintain the planning assumption that gas will be phased out as a boiler fuel. Gas should, however, remain attractive to utilities for a variety of specific uses. Fluctuating fuel prices may make it advantageous to use gas for short periods of time, and gas may also prove to be attractive in less price sensitive applications.

  17. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  18. Petroleum Supply Monthly

    Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645 3,625 1,006 492 742 33 111 1,613 122Commercial Consumers (NumberThousandby thePricePricetheTable 1. U.S. Supply,

  19. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  20. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast W ith natural gas prices significantlyof AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  1. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to accurately forecast natural gas prices. Many policyseek alternative methods to forecast natural gas prices. Thethe accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported

  2. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    gas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesreference-case natural gas price forecast, and that have notof AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  3. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsogas price forecasts with contemporaneous natural gas pricesof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  4. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Natural Gas Price Forecast Although natural gas prices areof AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

  5. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  6. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  7. The impact of out-of-theater supply flow visibility on in-theater logistics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giordano, Michael A. (Michael Anthony)

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The United States Army's end-to-end logistical network during times of conflict is made up of two separate networks. One network, managed by the Department of Defense, controls the shipment of supplies from the manufacturing ...

  8. Heat Supply Who What Where and -Why

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    ................................................. 6 District-heating (DH) supply: key figures .............................. 6 What is biomass Geothermics ..........................................................................11 Waste for heat supplyHeat Supply in Denmark Who What Where and - Why #12;Title: Heat Supply in Denmark - Who What Where

  9. Switching power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mihalka, A.M.

    1984-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

    The invention is a repratable capacitor charging, switching power supply. A ferrite transformer steps up a dc input. The transformer primary is in a full bridge configuration utilizing power MOSFETs as the bridge switches. The transformer secondary is fed into a high voltage, full wave rectifier whose output is connected directly to the energy storage capacitor. The transformer is designed to provide adequate leakage inductance to limit capacitor current. The MOSFETs are switched to the variable frequency from 20 to 50 kHz to charge a capacitor from 0.6 kV. The peak current in a transformer primary and secondary is controlled by increasing the pulse width as the capacitor charges. A digital ripple counter counts pulses and after a preselected desired number is reached an up-counter is clocked.

  10. Sustainable Biomass Supply Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Erin Searcy; Dave Muth; Erin Wilkerson; Shahab Sokansanj; Bryan Jenkins; Peter Titman; Nathan Parker; Quinn Hart; Richard Nelson

    2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) aims to displace 30% of the 2004 gasoline use (60 billion gal/yr) with biofuels by 2030 as outlined in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which will require 700 million tons of biomass to be sustainably delivered to biorefineries annually. Lignocellulosic biomass will make an important contribution towards meeting DOE’s ethanol production goals. For the biofuels industry to be an economically viable enterprise, the feedstock supply system (i.e., moving the biomass from the field to the refinery) cannot contribute more that 30% of the total cost of the biofuel production. The Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of California, Davis and Kansas State University are developing a set of tools for identifying economical, sustainable feedstocks on a regional basis based on biorefinery siting.

  11. Reliability Estimates for Power Supplies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee C. Cadwallader; Peter I. Petersen

    2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Failure rates for large power supplies at a fusion facility are critical knowledge needed to estimate availability of the facility or to set priorties for repairs and spare components. A study of the "failure to operate on demand" and "failure to continue to operate" failure rates has been performed for the large power supplies at DIII-D, which provide power to the magnet coils, the neutral beam injectors, the electron cyclotron heating systems, and the fast wave systems. When one of the power supplies fails to operate, the research program has to be either temporarily changed or halted. If one of the power supplies for the toroidal or ohmic heating coils fails, the operations have to be suspended or the research is continued at de-rated parameters until a repair is completed. If one of the power supplies used in the auxiliary plasma heating systems fails the research is often temporarily changed until a repair is completed. The power supplies are operated remotely and repairs are only performed when the power supplies are off line, so that failure of a power supply does not cause any risk to personnel. The DIII-D Trouble Report database was used to determine the number of power supply faults (over 1,700 reports), and tokamak annual operations data supplied the number of shots, operating times, and power supply usage for the DIII-D operating campaigns between mid-1987 and 2004. Where possible, these power supply failure rates from DIII-D will be compared to similar work that has been performed for the Joint European Torus equipment. These independent data sets support validation of the fusion-specific failure rate values.

  12. Industry Supply Chain Development (Ohio)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Supply Chain Development programs are focused on targeted industries that have significant growth opportunities for Ohio's existing manufacturing sector from emerging energy resources and...

  13. Tariffs with Dynamic Supply Response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Karp, Larry

    1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Giannini FDN iibrary TARIFFS WITH DYNAMIC SUPPLY RESWNSEpaper studies the optimal tariff in a dynamic framework. Thesellers, the optimal tariff is dynam- ically inconsistent;

  14. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast..................................................................................................................................... 2 Economic Growth Assumptions

  15. Viability, Development, and Reliability Assessment of Coupled Coastal Forecasting Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Singhal, Gaurav

    2012-10-19T23:59:59.000Z

    disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet...

  16. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output. This is typically not feasible for mesoscale weather prediction carried out locally by organizations without by simulating realizations of the geostatistical model. The method is applied to 48-hour mesoscale forecasts

  17. The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Runyan, Bruce Wayne

    2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

    This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...

  18. Improved climate forecast accuracy: implications for the aggregate sorghum supply curve

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hill, Harvey S. J.

    1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved as to style and content by: James W. Mjelde (Chair of Committee) ey D. Rosenthal (Member) Stephen W. Fuller (Member) A. Gene Nelson... AND CONCLUSIONS 59 by Event, Site and Price . . 65 67 84 90 90 95 99 Conclusions Limitations and Recommendations for Further Study 100 104 REFERENCES APPENDIX A APPENDIX B 108 119 121 APPENDIX C . . APPENDIX D . . )58 177 VITA . 196 LIST...

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  20. Power Supply Synchronization without Communication

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moehlis, Jeff

    1 Power Supply Synchronization without Communication Leonardo A. B. T^orres, Jo~ao P. Hespanha, Jeff Moehlis Abstract--We consider the synchronization of power supplies in an isolated grid with multiple small-to-medium power sources. We show how to achieve a coordinated or synchronized behavior

  1. WATER SUPPLY A Handbook on

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    WATER SUPPLY HANDBOOK A Handbook on Water Supply Planning and Resource Management Institute for Water Resources Water Resources Support Center U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 7701 Telegraph Road Studies Division December 1998 Revised IWR Report 96-PS-4 #12;U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources

  2. REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mays, Larry W.

    CHAPTER 3 REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND CAPACITY EXPANSION MODELS Messele Z. Ejeta California Department of Water Resources Sacramento, California Larry W. Mays Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona 3.1 INTRODUCTION Water supply planning on a regional scale

  3. GLOBAL WOOD SUPPLY Sten Nilsson

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    GLOBAL WOOD SUPPLY Sten Nilsson Biomass and Resource Efficiency: the need for a supply led approach the wood come from? Western EU Deficit Eastern EU Deficit Rest of Eastern Europe Balanced Russia Rest of Eastern Europe Balanced Russia Is probably at production ceiling under current conditions Japan

  4. Petroleum Supply Monthly, September 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for September 1984. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. The focus article discusses EIA data series for crude oil imports, motor gasoline supplied, and distillate and residual fuel oil supplied, as well as crude oil production. A companion article, An Evaluation of Crude Oil Production Statistics beginning on page xvii compares crude oil production volumes reported in EIA's petroleum supply publications with those shown in state reports.

  5. Petroleum supply monthly, August 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. Data presented are divided into Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  6. Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow

  7. A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

  8. FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper

  9. AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Povinelli, Richard J.

    AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

  10. Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural dedicated models to forecast the 12 individual months directly. Results indicate better performance is superior to naïve forecasts based on persistence and seasonality, and is better than results quoted

  11. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project

  12. PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

  13. Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lang, K.

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...

  14. Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Facebook IPO ­ updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook

  15. Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sripada, Yaji

    for generating textual summaries. Our algorithm has been implemented in a weather forecast generation system. 1 presentation, aid human understanding of the underlying data sets. SUMTIME is a research project aiming turbines. In the domain of meteorology, time series data produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP

  18. Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Olascoaga, Maria Josefina

    Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig

  19. New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined

  20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014­2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, EndUser Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency DECEMBER 2013 CEC2002013004SFV1 CALIFORNIA and expertise of numerous California Energy Commission staff members in the Demand Analysis Office. In addition

  1. SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gambardella, Luca Maria

    SIMULATION AND FORECASTING IN INTERMODAL CONTAINER TERMINAL Luca Maria Gambardella1 , Gianluca@idsia.ch 2 LCST, La Spezia Container Terminal, La Spezia (IT) 3 DSP, Data System & Planning sa, Manno (CH working in intermodal container terminals. INTRODUCTION The amount of work a container terminal deals

  2. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  3. Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of local investment and business planning. Timber volume production will be estimated at sub. Planning of operations. Control of the growing stock. Wider reporting (under UKWAS). The calculation fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan

  4. Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tyrus Berry; John Harlim

    2015-01-27T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.

  5. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium

  6. Analysis of PG E's residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

    1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecasts for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.

  7. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  8. Improve supply chain resilience by multi-stage supply chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, Jie, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Due to the global expansion of Company A's supply chain network, it is becoming more vulnerable to many disruptions. These disruptions often incur additional costs; and require time to respond to and recover from these ...

  9. Improving supply chain resilience by multi-stage supply chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Jingxia, M. Eng, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Due to the global expansion of Company A's supply chain network, it is becoming more vulnerable to many disruptions. These disruptions often incur additional costs; and require time to respond to and recover from these ...

  10. Water supply and demand in an energy supply model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbey, D; Loose, V

    1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report describes a tool for water and energy-related policy analysis, the development of a water supply and demand sector in a linear programming model of energy supply in the United States. The model allows adjustments in the input mix and plant siting in response to water scarcity. Thus, on the demand side energy conversion facilities can substitute more costly dry cooling systems for conventional evaporative systems. On the supply side groundwater and water purchased from irrigators are available as more costly alternatives to unappropriated surface water. Water supply data is developed for 30 regions in 10 Western states. Preliminary results for a 1990 energy demand scenario suggest that, at this level of spatial analysis, water availability plays a minor role in plant siting. Future policy applications of the modeling system are discussed including the evaluation of alternative patterns of synthetic fuels development.

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. Petroleum supply monthly, February 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly presents data describing the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the US. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders; operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. Data are divided into two sections: Summary statistics and Detailed statistics.

  13. Petroleum supply monthly, April 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographical regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the US. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the US.

  14. USABC Battery Separator Development

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Derma Patches Gas Diffusion Food Packaging Specialty Medical Membranes Dialysis Plasma Separation Oxygenation O2 & CO2 Removal Food & Beverage Ink Processing Industrial Page...

  15. Voluntary Separation Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    than that to which the employee would otherwise be entitled upon separation from employment. Waivers are mandatory bargaining subjects. Therefore, if the affected employees are...

  16. The 3He Supply Problem

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kouzes, Richard T.

    2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the main uses for 3He is in gas proportional counters for neutron detection. Radiation portal monitors deployed for homeland security and non-proliferation use such detectors. Other uses of 3He are for research detectors, commercial instruments, well logging detectors, dilution refrigerators, for targets or cooling in nuclear research, and for basic research in condensed matter physics. The US supply of 3He comes almost entirely from the decay of tritium used in nuclear weapons by the US and Russia. A few other countries contribute a small amount to the world’s 3He supply. Due to the large increase in use of 3He for homeland security, the supply has dwindled, and can no longer meet the demand. This white paper reviews the problems of supply, utilization, and alternatives.

  17. Effective contracts in supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shum, Wanhang

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In the past decade, we have seen significant increase in the level of outsourcing in many industries. This increase in the level of outsourcing increases the importance of implementing effective contracts in supply chains. ...

  18. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  19. Environmental decision making: supply-chain considerations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Reich-Weiser, Corinne; Dornfeld, David

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    manufacturing environmental impact and enable the reductionthe supply chain (3) environmental impact and cost must bethe supply chain’s environmental impact and flexibility (

  20. Supplying High-Quality, Raw Biomass

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Supplying High-Quality, Raw Biomass The building blocks to supply high-quality raw biomass start with harvesting and collection practices, product storage and recommendations of...

  1. Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pinnau, Ingo (Palo Alto, CA); Morisato, Atsushi (Tokyo, JP)

    1998-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A separation membrane useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C.sub.2+ hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula: ##STR1## wherein R.sub.1 is chosen from the group consisting of C.sub.1 -C.sub.4 alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R.sub.2 is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) ›PMP!. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations.

  2. Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Pinnau, I.; Morisato, Atsushi

    1998-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A separation membrane is described which is useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C{sub 2+} hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula shown in the accompanying diagram, wherein R{sub 1} is chosen from the group consisting of C{sub 1}-C{sub 4} alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R{sub 2} is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) [PMP]. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations. 4 figs.

  3. Separators for flywheel rotors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bender, D.A.; Kuklo, T.C.

    1998-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors. 10 figs.

  4. Separators for flywheel rotors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bender, Donald A. (Dublin, CA); Kuklo, Thomas C. (Oakdale, CA)

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors.

  5. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  6. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-02-23T23:59:59.000Z

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  7. Petroleum supply monthly, July 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  8. Petroleum supply monthly, June 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  9. Petroleum supply monthly, September 1991

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1991-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administrations for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics. 65 tabs.

  10. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-15T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  11. Chromatographic hydrogen isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Aldridge, Frederick T. (Livermore, CA)

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intermetallic compounds with the CaCu.sub.5 type of crystal structure, particularly LaNiCo.sub.4 and CaNi.sub.5, exhibit high separation factors and fast equilibrium times and therefore are useful for packing a chromatographic hydrogen isotope separation colum. The addition of an inert metal to dilute the hydride improves performance of the column. A large scale mutli-stage chromatographic separation process run as a secondary process off a hydrogen feedstream from an industrial plant which uses large volumes of hydrogen can produce large quantities of heavy water at an effective cost for use in heavy water reactors.

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. Petroleum supply monthly, August 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  14. Petroleum supply monthly, July 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-07-29T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: Petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  15. Petroleum Supply Monthly, May 1985

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products through May, 1985. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. This issue features a ''Mid-Year Petroleum Review'', beginning on page xiii and focusing on major petroleum supply developments in the first half of 1985 and the outlook for the remainder of the year. The article discusses changes in consumption, domestic crude oil production, refinery operations, foreign trade, stocks (including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) and prices. 33 tabs.

  16. Petroleum supply monthly, July 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for July 1984. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. This issue also presents IEA's winter 1984-1985 distillate fuel outlook and an overview of distillate fuel oil. These articles focus on the respective roles of production, imports, and stocks in meeting distillage fuel oil demand. Regional supply patterns, especially for the East Coast are also discussed. 33 tables. (DMC)

  17. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    (LNG) imports. With the higher natural gas prices of recent years and technological improvements in drilling, nonconventional supplies of natural gas have expanded rapidly. A significant amount of LNG import

  18. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    total of 15 metrics. Pathway reliability General objectives Adequacy Security Functional zones Primary energy supply

  19. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    total of 15 metrics. Pathway reliability General objectives Adequacy Security Functional zones Primary energy supply

  20. CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Su, Xiao

    CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY By: Yasser Dessouky #12;Carbon Footprint Supply Chain Carbon Trust defines carbon footprint of a supply chain as follows: "The carbon footprint of a product is the carbon dioxide emitted across the supply chain for a single

  1. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/SolarScribe/SolarScribe/ CMC NWP datasets for Day 2 Forecasts ? Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) ? RDPS raw model data ? 10 km resolution, North America, 000-054 forecasts ? Data at: http...

  2. Forecasting model of the PEPCO service area economy. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Volume III describes and documents the regional economic model of the PEPCO service area which was relied upon to develop many of the assumptions of future values of economic and demographic variables used in the forecast. The PEPCO area model is mathematically linked to the Wharton long-term forecast of the U.S. Volume III contains a technical discussion of the structure of the regional model and presents the regional economic forecast.

  3. USABC Battery Separator Development

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Separator Development P.I. - Ron Smith Presenter - Kristoffer Stokes, Ph.D. Celgard, LLC Project ID ES007 May 10, 2011 This presentation does not contain any proprietary,...

  4. Microsystem capillary separations

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    TeGrotenhuis, Ward E [Kennewick, WA; Wegeng, Robert S [Richland, WA; Whyatt, Greg A [West Richland, WA; Stenkamp, Victoria S [Richland, WA; Gauglitz, Phillip A [Richland, WA

    2003-12-23T23:59:59.000Z

    Laminated, multiphase separators and contactors having wicking structures and gas flow channels are described. Some preferred embodiments are combined with microchannel heat exchange. Integrated systems containing these components are also part of the present invention.

  5. Molten salt electrolyte separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaun, Thomas D. (New Lenox, IL)

    1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A molten salt electrolyte/separator for battery and related electrochemical systems including a molten electrolyte composition and an electrically insulating solid salt dispersed therein, to provide improved performance at higher current densities and alternate designs through ease of fabrication.

  6. Petroleum supply monthly, January 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States. The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  7. Petroleum Supply Monthly, March 1985

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for March 1985. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. 13 figs., 33 tabs.

  8. Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1985

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products through April, 1985. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks.

  9. Petroleum Supply Monthly, October 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for October 1984. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administraction for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks.

  10. Hydrogen separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mundschau, Michael (Longmont, CO); Xie, Xiaobing (Foster City, CA); Evenson, IV, Carl (Lafayette, CO); Grimmer, Paul (Longmont, CO); Wright, Harold (Longmont, CO)

    2011-05-24T23:59:59.000Z

    A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to an integrated water gas shift/hydrogen separation membrane system wherein the hydrogen separation membrane system comprises a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for pretreating a membrane, comprising: heating the membrane to a desired operating temperature and desired feed pressure in a flow of inert gas for a sufficient time to cause the membrane to mechanically deform; decreasing the feed pressure to approximately ambient pressure; and optionally, flowing an oxidizing agent across the membrane before, during, or after deformation of the membrane. A method of supporting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising selecting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising one or more catalyst outer layers deposited on a hydrogen transport membrane layer and sealing the hydrogen separation membrane system to a porous support.

  11. Membrane Separations Research

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fair, J. R.

    applicabilily of separation mel hods for the removal of carbon dioxide frum gas streams. Another application of hybrid systems deals with hydrogen recovery. As discussed earlier, this separation may be made by membrane petmeation, but classically it has also... box; altemate schemes have this sequence reversed. Sal6S gas Feed Membrane ~ Acid gas Amine conlactor Acid gas Amine stripper Figure 7. Hybrid system for the removal of acid gases from nalural gas. MEMBRANE UNIT COLD BOX HYDROGEN PRODUCT...

  12. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  13. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications Computational Advances in Applied...

  14. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Richard A. Berk; Brian Kriegler; Jong-Ho Baek

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  15. Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berk, Richard; Kriegler, Brian; Baek, Jong-Ho

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Applications ofof Term Length more dangerous than other inmates servingIV beds or moving less dangerous Level IV inmates to Level

  16. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  17. Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment, provides an authoritative voice on the...

  18. analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...

  19. Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures

  20. Optimization Online - Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    M. Fisher

    2007-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Feb 14, 2007 ... Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting: A Case Study in PDE-Constrained Optimization. M. Fisher(Mike.Fisher ***at*** ecmwf.int)

  1. Weather-based yield forecasts developed for 12 California crops

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lobell, David; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Field, Christopher

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Weather-based yield forecasts developed fordepend largely on the weather, measurements from existingpredictions. We developed weather-based models of statewide

  2. Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, Geoffrey J.

    Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat

  3. Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2008.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E.; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Lu, Y.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J.; Energy Systems

    2009-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. HTMs will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes progress that was made during Fy 2008 on the development of HTM materials.

  4. Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2010.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Lu, Y.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J. (Energy Systems)

    2011-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

    The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. These membranes will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes the results from the development and testing of HTM materials during FY 2010.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  6. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  8. Document Supply Services Quick Guide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    , phrase, ISBN/ISSN in the Search Term field (other options are available in the dropdown menu). Note1 Document Supply Services Quick Guide The DSS Portal makes requesting easy! Search for your item and password. If you are having difficulty please read the login help on the main DSS webpage. 2. Enter a word

  9. Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smith, Emily (Emily C.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using theof two methods to forecast natural gas prices is performed:accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the

  11. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Gas Price Forecast With natural gas prices significantlyto the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely once

  12. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

  13. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  14. Fastbus Power Supply Manual University of Washington Seattle, 26 March, 1996 Fastbus Power Supplies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berns, Hans-Gerd

    supplies each have their own built­in cooling fans, and the lower­current supplies are sufficiently cooledFastbus Power Supply Manual University of Washington Seattle, 26 March, 1996 page 1 Fastbus Power Supplies HGB, 03/26/1996 Overview Each of the four Fastbus crates of the SuperK OD DAQ system is supplied

  15. Petroleum supply monthly, March 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-03-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics. The tables and figures in the Summary Statistics section of the PSM present a time series of selected petroleum data on a US level. Most time series include preliminary estimates for one month based on the Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System; statistics based on the most recent data from the Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS); and statistics published in prior issues of the PSM and PSA. The Detailed Statistics tables of the PSM present statistics for the most current month available as well as year-to-date. In most cases, the statistics are presented for several geographic areas -- the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia), five PAD Districts, and 12 Refining Districts. At the US and PAD District level, the total volume and the daily rate of activities are presented. The statistics are developed from monthly survey forms submitted by respondents to the EIA and from data provided from other sources.

  16. Petroleum supply monthly, June 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-06-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics. The tables and figures ih the Summary Statistics section of the PSM present a time series of selected petroleum data on a US level. Most time series include preliminary estimates for one month based on the Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System; statistics based on the most recent data from the Monthly Petroleum Supply Reporting System (MPSRS); and statistics published in prior issues of the PSM and PSA. The Detailed Statistics tables of the PSM present statistics for the most current month available as well as year-to-date. In most cases, the statistics are presented for several geographic areas - - the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia), five PAD Districts, and 12 Refining Districts. At the US and PAD District level, the total volume and the daily rate of activities are presented. The statistics are developed from monthly survey forms submitted by respondents to the EIA and from data provided firom other sources.

  17. Organic Separation Test Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Russell, Renee L.; Rinehart, Donald E.; Peterson, Reid A.

    2014-09-22T23:59:59.000Z

    Separable organics have been defined as “those organic compounds of very limited solubility in the bulk waste and that can form a separate liquid phase or layer” (Smalley and Nguyen 2013), and result from three main solvent extraction processes: U Plant Uranium Recovery Process, B Plant Waste Fractionation Process, and Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Process. The primary organic solvents associated with tank solids are TBP, D2EHPA, and NPH. There is concern that, while this organic material is bound to the sludge particles as it is stored in the tanks, waste feed delivery activities, specifically transfer pump and mixer pump operations, could cause the organics to form a separated layer in the tank farms feed tank. Therefore, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) is experimentally evaluating the potential of organic solvents separating from the tank solids (sludge) during waste feed delivery activities, specifically the waste mixing and transfer processes. Given the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) waste acceptance criteria per the Waste Feed Acceptance Criteria document (24590-WTP-RPT-MGT-11-014) that there is to be “no visible layer” of separable organics in the waste feed, this would result in the batch being unacceptable to transfer to WTP. This study is of particular importance to WRPS because of these WTP requirements.

  18. Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What's PossibleRadiation Protection Technical s o Freiberge s 3 c/)RenewableRenewable EnergyForecast of

  19. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for4,645U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Environmental Assessments (EA)Budget(DANCE) Target 1Annual Waste Forecast and Funding

  20. Membrane separation of hydrocarbons

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Chang, Y. Alice (Des Plaines, IL); Kulkarni, Sudhir S. (Hoffman Estates, IL); Funk, Edward W. (Highland Park, IL)

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mixtures of heavy oils and light hydrocarbons may be separated by passing the mixture through a polymeric membrane. The membrane which is utilized to effect the separation comprises a polymer which is capable of maintaining its integrity in the presence of hydrocarbon compounds and which has been modified by being subjected to the action of a sulfonating agent. Sulfonating agents which may be employed will include fuming sulfuric acid, chlorosulfonic acid, sulfur trioxide, etc., the surface or bulk modified polymer will contain a degree of sulfonation ranging from about 15 to about 50%. The separation process is effected at temperatures ranging from about ambient to about 100.degree. C. and pressures ranging from about 50 to about 1000 psig.

  1. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    to  predict daily solar radiation.   Agriculture and Forest and Chuo, S.   2008.  Solar radiation forecasting using Short?term forecasting of solar radiation:   A statistical 

  2. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

    2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

  3. Separators for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Carlson, Steven Allen; Anakor, Ifenna Kingsley

    2014-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

    Provided are separators for use in an electrochemical cell comprising (a) an inorganic oxide and (b) an organic polymer, wherein the inorganic oxide comprises organic substituents. Preferably, the inorganic oxide comprises an hydrated aluminum oxide of the formula Al.sub.2O.sub.3.xH.sub.2O, wherein x is less than 1.0, and wherein the hydrated aluminum oxide comprises organic substituents, preferably comprising a reaction product of a multifunctional monomer and/or organic carbonate with an aluminum oxide, such as pseudo-boehmite and an aluminum oxide. Also provided are electrochemical cells comprising such separators.

  4. Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts acknowledges the support of PPM Energy, Inc. The data used in this work were obtained from Oregon State

  5. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  6. A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hansens, Jim

    A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

  7. RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS CHANDRASHEKAR SUBRAMANIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Manry, Michael

    a mixture of hydroelectric and non- hydroelectric power, the economics of the hydroelectric plants depend, and to economically allocate the load between various non-hydroelectric plants. Neural networks provide an attractive technology for inflow forecasting, because of (1) their success in power load forecasting 1- 6 , and (2

  8. Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Miami, University of

    for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool

  9. Wind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    have to be jointly taken into account in some decision-making problems, e.g. offshore wind farmWind-Wave Probabilistic Forecasting based on Ensemble Predictions Maxime FORTIN Kongens Lyngby 2012.imm.dtu.dk IMM-PhD-2012-86 #12;Summary Wind and wave forecasts are of a crucial importance for a number

  10. Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kemner, Ken

    Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power................................................ 14 2.2.3 Critical Processes for Wind Forecast

  11. PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA for electric vehicles. #12;ii #12;iii ABSTRACT The Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012 includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand

  12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption STAFFFINALREPORT NOVEMBER 2007 CEC-200-2007-015-SF2 Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY

  13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Manager Kae Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy

  14. Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bailey, James

    recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series using@unimelb.edu.au Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain

  15. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Brandon Keith Mauch

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    i Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Brandon Keith Mauch Co for the modeled wind- CAES system would not cover annualized capital costs. We also estimate market prices-ahead market is roughly $100, with large variability due to electric power prices. Wind power forecast errors

  16. Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast to grow from 20,080 average megawatts in 2000 to 25 forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation and Electric Power Plan.1 Understanding growth in electricity demand is, of course, crucial to determining

  17. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    - namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power

  18. Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    -- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size

  19. Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoff, William A.

    of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines

  20. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  1. Petroluem Supply Monthly, May 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

  2. Petroleum Supply Monthly, November 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for November 1984. Information on crude oil, gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Summary statistics include data from 1973 to 1984. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude oil, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied,and ending stocks. The focus article, US Petroleum Developments - - 1984., summarizes changes in consumption, refinery operations, petroleum stocks, imports, production and prices. The article includes an update on refinery closings.

  3. Petroleum Supply Monthly, January 1985

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for January, 1985. Information on crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases are included. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tabulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. This month's issue features Trends in Petroleum Product Consumption. This article describes the changing patterns of US petroleum product consumption in recent years, for the major projects and by end-use sectors.

  4. Petroleum Supply Monthly, December 1984

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report contains detailed statistics on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleum products for December 1984. Information on crude oil, gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gases are included. Summary statistics include data from 1973 through January 1985. Detailed statistics show production for the current month as well as the year-to-date. Data are also tubulated for the US Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District which include field production, refinery production, imports, stock withdrawal or addition, unaccounted for crude oil, net receipts, crude losses, refinery inputs, exports, products supplied, and ending stocks. The featured article, US Petroleum Import/Export Trends, highlights 1984 activities and discusses historical US trade patterns for crude oil and petroleum products. 12 figures, 33 tables.

  5. High voltage DC power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Droege, Thomas F. (Batavia, IL)

    1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively.

  6. Petroleum Supply Monthly, July 1990

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

  7. 1992 Conversion Resources Supply Document

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years conservation of electric power has become an integral part of utility planning. The 1980 Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act (Northwest Power Act) requires that the region consider conservation potential in planning acquisitions of resources to meet load growth. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) developed its first estimates of conservation potential in 1982. Since that time BPA has updated its conservation supply analyses as a part of its Resource Program and other planning efforts. Major updates were published in 1985 and in January 1990. This 1992 document presents updated supply curves, which are estimates of the savings potential over time (cumulative savings) at different cost levels of energy conservation measures (ECMs). ECMs are devices, pieces of equipment, or actions that increase the efficiency of electricity use and reduce the amount of electricity used by end-use equipment.

  8. High voltage DC power supply

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Droege, T.F.

    1989-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

    A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively. 7 figs.

  9. Hydrogen isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bartlit, John R. (Los Alamos, NM); Denton, William H. (Abingdon, GB3); Sherman, Robert H. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A system of four cryogenic fractional distillation columns interlinked with two equilibrators for separating a DT and hydrogen feed stream into four product streams, consisting of a stream of high purity D.sub.2, DT, T.sub.2, and a tritium-free stream of HD for waste disposal.

  10. Molten salt electrolyte separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Kaun, T.D.

    1996-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    The patent describes a molten salt electrolyte/separator for battery and related electrochemical systems including a molten electrolyte composition and an electrically insulating solid salt dispersed therein, to provide improved performance at higher current densities and alternate designs through ease of fabrication. 5 figs.

  11. Polymide gas separation membranes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Ding, Yong; Bikson, Benjamin; Nelson, Joyce Katz

    2004-09-14T23:59:59.000Z

    Soluble polyamic acid salt (PAAS) precursors comprised of tertiary and quaternary amines, ammonium cations, sulfonium cations, or phosphonium cations, are prepared and fabricated into membranes that are subsequently imidized and converted into rigid-rod polyimide articles, such as membranes with desirable gas separation properties. A method of enhancing solubility of PAAS polymers in alcohols is also disclosed.

  12. NEAMS safeguards and separations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sadasivan, Pratap [Los Alamos National Laboratory; De Paoli, David W [ORNL

    2011-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

    This presentation provides a program management update on the Safeguards and Separations Integrated Performance and Safety Code (IPSC) program in the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS). It provides an overview of FY11 work packages at multiple DOE Labs and includes material on challenge problem definitions for the IPSC effort.

  13. Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.

  14. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West

  15. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  16. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.

    1990-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.

  17. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The lattice model of renewable power supply and real-timerenewable power supply, by formulating a unit commitment model.model that can be used for assessing the impact of integrating renewable power

  18. Charlotte Green Supply Chain: Residential Retrofitting | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Charlotte Green Supply Chain: Residential Retrofitting Charlotte Green Supply Chain: Residential Retrofitting July 30, 2010 - 10:50am Addthis Joshua DeLung What does this mean for...

  19. An integrative framework for architecting supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cela Díaz, Fernando

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis explores the limitations of classic models of supply chain management, and proposes a new view based on the concept of value-driven supply chains, and a method of analysis and design based on the concepts of ...

  20. Supply chain management in the cement industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Agudelo, Isabel

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Traditionally supply chain management has played an operational role within cement and mineral extraction commodity companies. Recently, cost reduction projects have brought supply chain management into the limelight. In ...

  1. Loss of coordination in competitive supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Teo, Koon Soon

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The loss of coordination in supply chains quantifies the inefficiency (i.e. the loss of total profit) due to the presence of competition in the supply chain. In this thesis, we discuss four models: one model with multiple ...

  2. FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Av:l.at:i.on Fuel Total Oil Demand 0:!.1 Demand w:t thoutSince electric:! ty prices oil prices, the demand for will :the ef feet of oil prices on energy demand and supply, \\ve

  3. Agents on the Web Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Almor, Amit

    Agents on the Web Automating Supply Chains 90 JULY · AUGUST 2001 http://computer.org/internet/ 1089

  4. Covered Product Category: Uninterruptible Power Supplies (for...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications) Covered Product Category: Uninterruptible Power Supplies (for Data Center, Computer, and Telecommunication Applications) The Federal Energy Management...

  5. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Scale Renewable Energy Integration . . . . . . . . . . .Impacts of Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3 Coupling Renewable Energy with Deferrable

  6. Supply Chain and Information Sciences Technology 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Guiltinan, Mark

    Supply Chain and Information Sciences Technology 2010 Supply Chain and Information Systems Technology Minor SCIST Minor Application Department of Supply Chain & Information Systems College of Information Sciences and Technology Overview The minor in SCIST is structured to provide students not majoring

  7. Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

    1992-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecasts for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.

  8. Steam separator latch assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Challberg, R.C.; Kobsa, I.R.

    1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A latch assembly removably joins a steam separator assembly to a support flange disposed at a top end of a tubular shroud in a nuclear reactor pressure vessel. The assembly includes an annular head having a central portion for supporting the steam separator assembly thereon, and an annular head flange extending around a perimeter thereof for supporting the head to the support flange. A plurality of latches are circumferentially spaced apart around the head flange with each latch having a top end, a latch hook at a bottom end thereof, and a pivot support disposed at an intermediate portion therebetween and pivotally joined to the head flange. The latches are pivoted about the pivot supports for selectively engaging and disengaging the latch hooks with the support flange for fixedly joining the head to the shroud or for allowing removal thereof. 12 figures.

  9. Laser isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robinson, C. Paul (Los Alamos, NM); Jensen, Reed J. (Los Alamos, NM); Cotter, Theodore P. (Munich, DE); Boyer, Keith (Los Alamos, NM); Greiner, Norman R. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A process and apparatus for separating isotopes by selective excitation of isotopic species of a volatile compound by tuned laser light. A highly cooled gas of the volatile compound is produced in which the isotopic shift is sharpened and defined. Before substantial condensation occurs, the cooled gas is irradiated with laser light precisely tuned to a desired wavelength to selectively excite a particular isotopic species in the cooled gas. The laser light may impart sufficient energy to the excited species to cause it to undergo photolysis, photochemical reaction or even to photoionize. Alternatively, a two-photon irradiation may be applied to the cooled gas to induce photolysis, photochemical reaction or photoionization. The process is particularly applicable to the separation of isotopes of uranium.

  10. Photochemical isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robinson, C. Paul (Los Alamos, NM); Jensen, Reed J. (Los Alamos, NM); Cotter, Theodore P. (Los Alamos, NM); Greiner, Norman R. (Los Alamos, NM); Boyer, Keith (Los Alamos, NM)

    1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A process for separating isotopes by selective excitation of isotopic species of a volatile compound by tuned laser light. A highly cooled gas of the volatile compound is produced in which the isotopic shift is sharpened and defined. Before substantial condensation occurs, the cooled gas is irradiated with laser light precisely tuned to a desired wavelength to selectively excite a particular isotopic species in the cooled gas. The laser light may impart sufficient energy to the excited species to cause it to undergo photochemical reaction or even to photoionize. Alternatively, a two-photon irradiation may be applied to the cooled gas to induce photochemical reaction or photoionization. The process is particularly applicable to the separation of isotopes of uranium and plutonium.

  11. Advanced Separation Consortium

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Center for Advanced Separation Technologies (CAST) was formed in 2001 under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy to conduct fundamental research in advanced separation and to develop technologies that can be used to produce coal and minerals in an efficient and environmentally acceptable manner. The CAST consortium consists of seven universities - Virginia Tech, West Virginia University, University of Kentucky, Montana Tech, University of Utah, University of Nevada-Reno, and New Mexico Tech. The consortium brings together a broad range of expertise to solve problems facing the US coal industry and the mining sector in general. At present, a total of 60 research projects are under way. The article outlines some of these, on topics including innovative dewatering technologies, removal of mercury and other impurities, and modelling of the flotation process. 1 photo.

  12. Photochemical isotope separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Robinson, C.P.; Jensen, R.J.; Cotter, T.P.; Greiner, N.R.; Boyer, K.

    1987-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

    A process is described for separating isotopes by selective excitation of isotopic species of a volatile compound by tuned laser light. A highly cooled gas of the volatile compound is produced in which the isotopic shift is sharpened and defined. Before substantial condensation occurs, the cooled gas is irradiated with laser light precisely tuned to a desired wavelength to selectively excite a particular isotopic species in the cooled gas. The laser light may impart sufficient energy to the excited species to cause it to undergo photochemical reaction or even to photoionize. Alternatively, a two-photon irradiation may be applied to the cooled gas to induce photochemical reaction or photoionization. The process is particularly applicable to the separation of isotopes of uranium and plutonium. 8 figs.

  13. Steam separator latch assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Challberg, Roy C. (Livermore, CA); Kobsa, Irvin R. (San Jose, CA)

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A latch assembly removably joins a steam separator assembly to a support flange disposed at a top end of a tubular shroud in a nuclear reactor pressure vessel. The assembly includes an annular head having a central portion for supporting the steam separator assembly thereon, and an annular head flange extending around a perimeter thereof for supporting the head to the support flange. A plurality of latches are circumferentially spaced apart around the head flange with each latch having a top end, a latch hook at a bottom end thereof, and a pivot support disposed at an intermediate portion therebetween and pivotally joined to the head flange. The latches are pivoted about the pivot supports for selectively engaging and disengaging the latch hooks with the support flange for fixedly joining the head to the shroud or for allowing removal thereof.

  14. Membrane separation of hydrocarbons

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Funk, Edward W. (Highland Park, IL); Kulkarni, Sudhir S. (Hoffman Estates, IL); Chang, Y. Alice (Des Plaines, IL)

    1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Mixtures of heavy oils and light hydrocarbons may be separated by passing the mixture over a polymeric membrane which comprises a polymer capable of maintaining its integrity in the presence of hydrocarbon compounds at temperature ranging from about ambient to about 100.degree. C. and pressures ranging from about 50 to about 1000 psi. The membranes which possess pore sizes ranging from about 10 to about 500 Angstroms are cast from a solvent solution and recovered.

  15. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

    2011-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  16. Innovative Separations Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Tripp; N. Soelberg; R. Wigeland

    2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Reprocessing used nuclear fuel (UNF) is a multi-faceted problem involving chemistry, material properties, and engineering. Technology options are available to meet a variety of processing goals. A decision about which reprocessing method is best depends significantly on the process attributes considered to be a priority. New methods of reprocessing that could provide advantages over the aqueous Plutonium Uranium Reduction Extraction (PUREX) and Uranium Extraction + (UREX+) processes, electrochemical, and other approaches are under investigation in the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCR&D) Separations Campaign. In an attempt to develop a revolutionary approach to UNF recycle that may have more favorable characteristics than existing technologies, five innovative separations projects have been initiated. These include: (1) Nitrogen Trifluoride for UNF Processing; (2) Reactive Fluoride Gas (SF6) for UNF Processing; (3) Dry Head-end Nitration Processing; (4) Chlorination Processing of UNF; and (5) Enhanced Oxidation/Chlorination Processing of UNF. This report provides a description of the proposed processes, explores how they fit into the Modified Open Cycle (MOC) and Full Recycle (FR) fuel cycles, and identifies performance differences when compared to 'reference' advanced aqueous and fluoride volatility separations cases. To be able to highlight the key changes to the reference case, general background on advanced aqueous solvent extraction, advanced oxidative processes (e.g., volumetric oxidation, or 'voloxidation,' which is high temperature reaction of oxide UNF with oxygen, or modified using other oxidizing and reducing gases), and fluorination and chlorination processes is provided.

  17. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  18. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  19. Petroleum supply monthly: December 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Data are presented which describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States. Data are presented in two sections: Summary Statistics, presenting a time series of selected petroleum data on a U.S. level, and Detailed Statistics, presenting statistics for the most current month available as well as year to date.

  20. Supply Stores | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page onYou are now leaving Energy.gov You are now leaving Energy.gov You are being directed off Energy.gov. Are you sure you wantJoin us for|Idaho |Energy Supercomputers: ExtremeSupply

  1. November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shyy, Wei

    November 14, 2000 A Quarterly Forecast of U.S. Trade in Services and the Current Account, 2000 of Forecast*** We forecast that the services trade surplus, which declined from 1997 to 1998 and edged upward. That is, from a level of $80.6 billion in 1999, we forecast that the services trade surplus will be $80

  2. Smard Grid Software Applications for Distribution Network Load Forecasting Eugene A. Feinberg, Jun Fei

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Feinberg, Eugene A.

    of the distribution network. Keywords: load forecasting, feeder, transformer, load pocket, SmartGrid I. INTRODUCTION

  3. Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marquez, Ricardo

    2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

  4. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  5. USING BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO FORECAST FISHERY DYNAMICS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND CHECKING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ~ is illustrated by developing a model that makes monthly forecasts of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, catches

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  7. ASSESSING THE QUALITY AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katz, Richard

    INFORMATION SYSTEM · Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK · Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) · Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0

  8. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    GEPS 21 members ? Provides probabilistic forecasts ? Can give useful outlooks for longer term weather forecasts ? Scribe matrix from GDPS ? includes UMOS post processed model data ? Variables like Temperature, humidity post processed by UMOS ? See...://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products/ ? Link to experimental 3-day outlook of REPS quilts ? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/cmc-prob-products.reps Users can also make their own products from ensemble forecast data? Sample ascii matrix of 2m temperature could be fed...

  9. Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allanach, B C; Cranmer, Kyle; Lester, Christopher G; Weber, Arne M

    2007-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

    ar X iv :0 70 5. 04 87 v3 [ he p- ph ] 5 J ul 20 07 Preprint typeset in JHEP style - HYPER VERSION DAMTP-2007-18 Cavendish-HEP-2007-03 MPP-2007-36 Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecasts Benjamin C Allanach1, Kyle Cranmer2... ’s likely discoveries. There are big differences between nature of the questions answered by a forecast, and the ques- tions that will be answered by the experiments themselves when they have acquired compelling data. A weather forecast predicting “severe...

  10. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20T23:59:59.000Z

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  11. EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projects are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region.

  12. Natural Gas Supply SBIR Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shoemaker, H.D.; Gwilliam, W.J.

    1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program was created in 1982 by Public Law 97-219 and reauthorized in 1992 until the year 2000 by Public Law 102-564. The purposes of the new law are to (1) expand and improve the SBIR program, 2) emphasize the program`s goal of increasing private sector commercialization of technology developed through Federal R&D, (3) increase small business participation in Federal R&D, and (4) improve the Federal Government`s dissemination of information concerning the SBIR program. DOE`s SBIR pro-ram has two features that are unique. In the 1995 DOE SBIR solicitation, the DOE Fossil Energy topics were: environmental technology for natural gas, oil, and coal; advanced recovery of oil; natural gas supply; natural gas utilization; advanced coal-based power systems; and advanced fossil fuels research. The subtopics for this solicitation`s Natural Gas Supply topic are (1) drilling, completion, and stimulation; (2) low-permeability Formations; (3) delivery and storage; and (4) natural gas upgrading.

  13. Cyclic membrane separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nemser, Stuart M.

    2005-05-03T23:59:59.000Z

    A cyclic process for controlling environmental emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vapor recovery in storage and dispensing operations of liquids maintains a vacuum in the storage tank ullage. In the first part of a two-part cyclic process ullage vapor is discharged through a vapor recovery system in which VOC are stripped from vented gas with a selectively gas permeable membrane. In the second part, the membrane is inoperative while gas pressure rises in the ullage. In one aspect of this invention, a vacuum is drawn in the membrane separation unit thus reducing overall VOC emissions.

  14. Cyclic membrane separation process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bowser, John

    2004-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

    A cyclic process for controlling environmental emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vapor recovery in storage and dispensing operations of liquids maintains a vacuum in the storage tank ullage. In one of a two-part cyclic process ullage vapor is discharged through a vapor recovery system in which VOC are stripped from vented gas with a selectively gas permeable membrane. In the other part, the membrane is inoperative while gas pressure rises in the ullage. Ambient air is charged to the membrane separation unit during the latter part of the cycle.

  15. Optimally controlling hybrid electric vehicles using path forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Katsargyri, Georgia-Evangelina

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) with path-forecasting belong to the class of fuel efficient vehicles, which use external sensory information and powertrains with multiple operating modes in order to increase fuel economy. ...

  16. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  17. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    G. Bel; C. P. Connaughton; M. Toots; M. M. Bandi

    2015-03-29T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  18. OCTOBER-NOVEMBER FORECAST FOR 2014 CARIBBEAN BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    and hurricanes, but instead predicts both hurricane days and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Typically, while) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. We have decided to issue this forecast, because Klotzbach (2011) has

  19. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  20. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  1. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Agency: 1982-2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington,Agency: 2004, Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,Agency: 2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C.

  2. The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Auffhammer, Maximilian

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    2005a, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Energy2005b, Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, Washington, D.C. Granger,Paper ???? The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric

  3. Forecasting and strategic inventory placement for gas turbine aftermarket spares

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Simmons, Joshua T. (Joshua Thomas)

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses the problem of forecasting demand for Life Limited Parts (LLPs) in the gas turbine engine aftermarket industry. It is based on work performed at Pratt & Whitney, a major producer of turbine engines. ...

  4. Optimally Controlling Hybrid Electric Vehicles using Path Forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolmanovsky, Ilya V.

    The paper examines path-dependent control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). In this approach we seek to improve HEV fuel economy by optimizing charging and discharging of the vehicle battery depending on the forecasted ...

  5. Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levinson, David M.

    Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went

  6. africa conditional forecasts: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  7. accident risk forecasting: Topics by E-print Network

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts had the potential to improve resource management but instead played only a marginal role in real-world decision making. 1 A widespread perception that the quality of the...

  8. Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yang, Xiaorong

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH...

  9. Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Romo, Juan

    Forecasting Returns and Volatilities in GARCH Processes Using the Bootstrap Lorenzo Pascual, Juan generated by GARCH processes. The main advantage over other bootstrap methods previously proposed for GARCH by having conditional heteroscedasticity. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH

  10. Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Han-Lim

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

  11. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference? 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  12. FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  14. Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pesaran, M Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan

    Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems? M. Hashem Pesaran Cambridge University and USC Andreas Pick De Nederlandsche Bank and Cambridge University, CIMF Allan Timmermann UC San Diego and CREATES January 26, 2009...

  15. Grid-scale Fluctuations and Forecast Error in Wind Power

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bel, G; Toots, M; Bandi, M M

    2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The fluctuations in wind power entering an electrical grid (Irish grid) were analyzed and found to exhibit correlated fluctuations with a self-similar structure, a signature of large-scale correlations in atmospheric turbulence. The statistical structure of temporal correlations for fluctuations in generated and forecast time series was used to quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) that quantifies the deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and the generated time series, and a scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations of the generated power. With no $a$ $priori$ knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error ($e_{\\tau}$) and the scaling error ($e_{\\zeta}$).

  16. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts: does it make a difference?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Adut, Davit

    2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    Financial analysts are an important group of information intermediaries in the capital markets. Their reports, including both earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, are widely transmitted and have a significant impact on stock prices (Womack...

  17. Mesoscale predictability and background error convariance estimation through ensemble forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ham, Joy L

    2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Over the past decade, ensemble forecasting has emerged as a powerful tool for numerical weather prediction. Not only does it produce the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, it also could quantify the uncertainties associated with the best...

  18. Enhanced membrane gas separations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prasad, R.

    1993-07-13T23:59:59.000Z

    An improved membrane gas separation process is described comprising: (a) passing a feed gas stream to the non-permeate side of a membrane system adapted for the passage of purge gas on the permeate side thereof, and for the passage of the feed gas stream in a counter current flow pattern relative to the flow of purge gas on the permeate side thereof, said membrane system being capable of selectively permeating a fast permeating component from said feed gas, at a feed gas pressure at or above atmospheric pressure; (b) passing purge gas to the permeate side of the membrane system in counter current flow to the flow of said feed gas stream in order to facilitate carrying away of said fast permeating component from the surface of the membrane and maintaining the driving force for removal of the fast permeating component through the membrane from the feed gas stream, said permeate side of the membrane being maintained at a subatmospheric pressure within the range of from about 0.1 to about 5 psia by vacuum pump means; (c) recovering a product gas stream from the non-permeate side of the membrane; and (d) discharging purge gas and the fast permeating component that has permeated the membrane from the permeate side of the membrane, whereby the vacuum conditions maintained on the permeate side of the membrane by said vacuum pump means enhance the efficiency of the gas separation operation, thereby reducing the overall energy requirements thereof.

  19. Immobilized fluid membranes for gas separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Liu, Wei; Canfield, Nathan L; Zhang, Jian; Li, Xiaohong Shari; Zhang, Jiguang

    2014-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

    Provided herein are immobilized liquid membranes for gas separation, methods of preparing such membranes and uses thereof. In one example, the immobilized membrane includes a porous metallic host matrix and an immobilized liquid fluid (such as a silicone oil) that is immobilized within one or more pores included within the porous metallic host matrix. The immobilized liquid membrane is capable of selective permeation of one type of molecule (such as oxygen) over another type of molecule (such as water). In some examples, the selective membrane is incorporated into a device to supply oxygen from ambient air to the device for electrochemical reactions, and at the same time, to block water penetration and electrolyte loss from the device.

  20. Enron sees major increases in U. S. gas supply, demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carson, M.M.; Stram, B. (Enron Corp., Houston, TX (US))

    1991-10-07T23:59:59.000Z

    Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case.

  1. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the “flying brick” technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  2. Subhourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wegley, H.L.; Kosorok, M.R.; Formica, W.J.

    1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Three models for making automated forecasts of subhourly wind and wind power fluctuations were examined to determine the models' appropriateness, accuracy, and reliability in wind forecasting for wind turbine operation. Such automated forecasts appear to have value not only in wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine control and operating strategies, but also in improving individual wind turbine operating strategies (such as determining when to attempt startup). A simple persistence model, an autoregressive model, and a generalized equivalent Markhov (GEM) model were developed and tested using spring season data from the WKY television tower located near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The three models represent a pure measurement approach, a pure statistical method and a statistical-dynamical model, respectively. Forecasting models of wind speed means and measures of deviations about the mean were developed and tested for all three forecasting techniques for the 45-meter level and for the 10-, 30- and 60-minute time intervals. The results of this exploratory study indicate that a persistence-based approach, using onsite measurements, will probably be superior in the 10-minute time frame. The GEM model appears to have the most potential in 30-minute and longer time frames, particularly when forecasting wind speed fluctuations. However, several improvements to the GEM model are suggested. In comparison to the other models, the autoregressive model performed poorly at all time frames; but, it is recommended that this model be upgraded to an autoregressive moving average (ARMA or ARIMA) model. The primary constraint in adapting the forecasting models to the production of wind turbine cluster power output forecasts is the lack of either actual data, or suitable models, for simulating wind turbine cluster performance.

  3. Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Awwad, Haitham Munir

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...

  4. A model for short term electric load forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tigue, John Robert

    1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

  5. Uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Use of this purchase specification is not mandatory. User should review the document and determine if it meets the user`s purpose. This document contains a fill-in-the-blanks guide specification for the procurement of uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems greater than 10 kVA, organized as follows: Parts 1 through 7--technical requirements; Appendix A--technical requirements to be included in the proposal; Appendix B--UPS system data sheets to be completed by each bidder (Seller) and submitted with the proposal; Appendix C--general guidelines giving the specifier parameters for selecting a UPS system; it should be read before preparing an actual specification, and is not attached to the specification; Attachment 1--sketches prepared by the purchaser (Owner); Attachment 2--sample title page.

  6. Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

    Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...

  7. Probabilistic wind power forecasting -European Wind Energy Conference -Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Probabilistic wind power forecasting - European Wind Energy Conference - Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007 Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators J´er´emie Juban jeremie.juban@ensmp.fr; georges.kariniotakis@ensmp.fr Abstract Short-term wind power forecasting tools

  8. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    vs. AEO 2001 Price Forecast Natural Gas Price (nominal $/if forwards forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (ifs reference case forecast of natural gas prices delivered to

  9. Petroleum supply annual 1995: Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The {ital Petroleum Supply Annual} contains information on supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. It reflects data collected from the petroleum industry during 1995 through monthly surveys, and it is divided into 2 volumes. This volume contains three sections: summary statistics, detailed statistics, and selected refinery statistics, each with final annual data. (The other volume contains final statistics for each month and replaces data previously published in the {ital Petroleum Supply Monthly}).

  10. Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benedick, W.B.; Graham, R.A.; Morosin, B.

    1988-11-08T23:59:59.000Z

    A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolytes rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active. 2 figs.

  11. Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Benedick, W.B.; Graham, R.A.; Morosin, B.

    1987-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

    A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolyte rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active. 2 figs.

  12. Supply-side Resources & Planning Assumptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - station Solar PV (from 6th Plan) 25 MW dc/20 MW net ac output using flat plate non concentrating single) ­ Storage Resource assessment data needs and applications R d f t Resources proposed for assessment Forecasts ProCost 46/19/2013 #12;6/19/2013 3 Resource data & planning assumptions Reference plant (New

  13. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    order: cost comparison for the deep-simple, zero wind,expected wind supply, instead of averaging the cost savingsintegration of wind power. Cost, Utilization, Investment

  14. Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Papavasiliou, Anthony

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    systems absorb large amounts of hydroelectric power. Duringthat snow melts and hydroelectric power supply increases andfrom hydroelectric dams or discards renewable power [53].

  15. GI Self-Supply Pilot Overview

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BPA TRANSMISSION SERVICES Transmission Wind Integration Systems Team GENERATION IMBALANCE SELF SUPPLY PILOT PROJECT OVERVIEW VERSION: 0.1 UPDATED: 7292009 giself-supplypilotov...

  16. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    pathway supplying hydrogen via pipeline from a centralizedgas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and 2) on-sitehydrogen is transported to the refueling stations via pipeline

  17. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    pathway supplying hydrogen via pipeline from a centralizedgas with pipeline distribution of hydrogen, and 2) on-sitehydrogen is transported to the refueling stations via pipeline

  18. Assessing reliability in energy supply systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

  19. Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

  20. Emergency Food and Water Supplies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Laanen, Peggy

    1999-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

    1 day. An appliance thermometer can help monitor the inside freezer tem per a- ture. Use of dry ice. Dry ice can be used to help maintain adequate freezer temperature if the power is out for more than one day. Use these precautions when using... dry ice. Use 3 pounds dry ice per cubic foot of freezer space. Avoid direct contact of dry ice with skin. Dry ice will burn skin and is not for consumption. Wrap dry ice in brown paper for longer storage and separate it from food with a piece...

  1. Advanced Accessory Power Supply Topologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marlino, L.D.

    2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

    This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) began December 8, 2000 and ended September 30, 2009. The total funding provided by the Participant (General Motors Advanced Technology Vehicles [GM]) during the course of the CRADA totaled $1.2M enabling the Contractor (UT-Battelle, LLC [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a.k.a. ORNL]) to contribute significantly to the joint project. The initial task was to work with GM on the feasibility of developing their conceptual approach of modifying major components of the existing traction inverter/drive to develop low cost, robust, accessory power. Two alternate methods for implementation were suggested by ORNL and both were proven successful through simulations and then extensive testing of prototypes designed and fabricated during the project. This validated the GM overall concept. Moreover, three joint U.S. patents were issued and subsequently licensed by GM. After successfully fulfilling the initial objective, the direction and duration of the CRADA was modified and GM provided funding for two additional tasks. The first new task was to provide the basic development for implementing a cascaded inverter technology into hybrid vehicles (including plug-in hybrid, fuel cell, and electric). The second new task was to continue the basic development for implementing inverter and converter topologies and new technology assessments for hybrid vehicle applications. Additionally, this task was to address the use of high temperature components in drive systems. Under this CRADA, ORNL conducted further research based on GM’s idea of using the motor magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply that is nongalvanically coupled to the terminals of the high voltage dc-link battery of hybrid vehicles. In order not to interfere with the motor’s torque, ORNL suggested to use the zero-sequence, highfrequency harmonics carried by the main fundamental motor current for producing the accessory power. Two studies were conducted at ORNL. One was to put an additional winding in the motor slots to magnetically link with the high frequency of the controllable zero-sequence stator currents that do not produce any zero-sequence harmonic torques. The second approach was to utilize the corners of the square stator punching for the high-frequency transformers of the dc/dc inverter. Both approaches were successful. This CRADA validated the feasibility of GM’s desire to use the motor’s magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply. Three joint U.S. patents with GM were issued to ORNL and GM by the U.S. Patent Office for the research results produced by this CRADA.

  2. Certified Professional in Supply Management (CPSM) Review Series: Exam 2: Effective Supply Management Performance

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    · Materials and Inventory Management · Organization/Department Assessment · Planning · Product and ServiceCertified Professional in Supply Management (CPSM) Review Series: Exam 2: Effective Supply Management Performance Dates: October 28, 2011 Location: Rutgers University­ Livingston Campus, Tillett Hall

  3. Concentration and separation of biological organisms by ultrafiltration and dielectrophoresis

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Simmons, Blake A. (San Francisco, CA); Hill, Vincent R. (Decatur, GA); Fintschenko, Yolanda (Livermore, CA); Cummings, Eric B. (Livermore, CA)

    2010-10-12T23:59:59.000Z

    Disclosed is a method for monitoring sources of public water supply for a variety of pathogens by using a combination of ultrafiltration techniques together dielectrophoretic separation techniques. Because water-borne pathogens, whether present due to "natural" contamination or intentional introduction, would likely be present in drinking water at low concentrations when samples are collected for monitoring or outbreak investigations, an approach is needed to quickly and efficiently concentrate and separate particles such as viruses, bacteria, and parasites in large volumes of water (e.g., 100 L or more) while simultaneously reducing the sample volume to levels sufficient for detecting low concentrations of microbes (e.g., <10 mL). The technique is also designed to screen the separated microbes based on specific conductivity and size.

  4. Organic contaminant separator

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Del Mar, P.

    1993-12-28T23:59:59.000Z

    A process is presented of sample preparation prior to analysis for the concentration of an organic contaminant in an aqueous medium by (a) passing an initial aqueous medium including a minor amount of the organic contaminant through a composite tube comprised of a blend of a polyolefin and a polyester, the composite tube having an internal diameter of from about 0.1 to about 2.0 millimeters and being of sufficient length to permit the organic contaminant to adhere to the composite tube, (b) passing a solvent through the composite tube. The solvent is capable of separating the adhered organic contaminant from the composite tube. Further, an extraction apparatus is presented for sample preparation prior to analysis for the concentration of an organic contaminant in an aqueous medium. The apparatus includes a composite tube comprised of a blend of a polyolefin and a polyester. The composite tube has an internal diameter of from about 0.1 to about 2.0 millimeters and has sufficient length to permit an organic contaminant contained within an aqueous medium passed therethrough to adhere to the composite tube. 2 figures.

  5. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  6. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  7. Lead -- supply/demand outlook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schnull, T. [Noranda, Inc., Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    1999-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

    As Japan goes--so goes the world. That was the title of a recent lead article in The Economist that soberly discussed the potential of much more severe global economic problems occurring, if rapid and coordinated efforts were not made to stabilize the economic situation in Asia in general, and in Japan in particular. During the first 6 months of last year, commodity markets reacted violently to the spreading economic problems in Asia. More recent currency and financial problems in Russia have exacerbated an already unpleasant situation. One commodity after another--including oil, many of the agricultural commodities, and each of the base metals--have dropped sharply in price. Many are now trading at multiyear lows. Until there is an overall improvement in the outlook for these regions, sentiment will likely continue to be negative, and metals prices will remain under pressure. That being said, lead has maintained its value better than many other commodities during these difficult times, finding support in relatively strong fundamentals. The author takes a closer look at those supply and demand fundamentals, beginning with consumption.

  8. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia: Supply and Demand, Conflict and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fesharaki, Fereidun; Banaszak, Sarah; WU, Kang; Valencia, Mark J.; Dorian, James P.

    1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    scenario, China's primary energy consumption is forecast toChina and Period Historical GDP Oil Coal Gas Fossil Energy Total Forecast:China Period Historical GDP Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Power Hydroelectricity Primary Energy Total Forecast:

  9. E951 POWER SUPPLY SAFETY REVIEW

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McDonald, Kirk

    E951 POWER SUPPLY SAFETY REVIEW 9/06/02 IOANNIS MARNERIS Brookhaven National Labs. #12;Project. · To do this we will use 4 existing SCR type dc power supplies from the experimental area in series 3644 Voltage (V) 150 300 300 Peakcurrent (A) 3600 7200 7200 Field (T) 5.0 10.0 14.5 Inductance (mH) 138

  10. SUMMER 2007 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION SUMMER 2007 ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK DRAFTSTAFFREPORT May ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION B. B assessment of the capability of the physical electricity system to provide power to meet electricity demand

  11. Biomass Supply and Carbon Accounting for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Biomass Supply and Carbon Accounting for Southeastern Forests February 2012 #12;This Biomass Supply and Carbon Accounting for Southeastern Forests study was conducted by the Biomass Energy Resource Center Biomass Energy Resource Center Kamalesh Doshi Biomass Energy Resource Center Hillary Emick Biomass Energy

  12. EXOTIC OPTIONS FOR INTERRUPTIBLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CONTRACTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with different strike prices. Such options allow hedging and valuation of supply curtailment risk, while demand side participation in the mitigation of supply shortages for energy and reserves. Newly curtailment can provide an efficient substitute for generation capacity in providing balancing energy

  13. Proposal for the Cryogenic Supply of a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Proposal for the Cryogenic Supply of a Single TTF / FEL - Cryomodule Test Bench TESLA Report No supply are described. 1. Introduction For the time being, TTF- cryomodules can only be cold tested after will change. The quadrupoles will be cooled in the 2.0 K liquid bath instead by the 4.5K cooling circuit

  14. Transportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Saldin, Dilano

    Transportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS//2050/energy05 as a source of energy. Global supply and demand trends will have a profound impact on the ability to use our) Transportation energy demand in the U.S. has increased because of the greater use of less fuel efficient vehicles

  15. A Supply Chain Network Perspective for Electric

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    of New Models "[In recent years] the adequacy of the bulk power transmission system has been challengedA Supply Chain Network Perspective for Electric Power Generation, Supply, Transmission The transformation of the electric power industry from a regulated to a competitive industry In the US, In the EU

  16. Optimal Trading Strategy Supply/Demand Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gabrieli, John

    prices through the changes in their supply/demand.2 Thus, to study how market participants trade can have interesting implications on the observed behavior of intraday volume, volatility and prices: November 15, 2004. This Draft: April 8, 2006 Abstract The supply/demand of a security in the market

  17. Supply Chain Management Faculty Brian Fugate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    University. He has worked in materials management professionally for over 10 years with high tech electronicsSupply Chain Management Faculty Brian Fugate Brian S. Fugate (Ph.D University of Tennessee) is an Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University. Brian worked in logistics

  18. A Supply Chain Network Perspective for Electric Power Generation, Supply, Transmission, and Consumption

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    A Supply Chain Network Perspective for Electric Power Generation, Supply, Transmission, and Consumption Anna Nagurney and Dmytro Matsypura Department of Finance and Operations Management Isenberg School, Berlin, Germany, pp. 3-27. Abstract: A supply chain network perspective for electric power production

  19. Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk Anna Nagurney as well as demand side risk are included in the formulation. The model consists of three tiers of decision chain network equilibrium model with electronic com- merce and with supply side and demand side risk

  20. Coal slurry fuel supply and purge system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    McDowell, Robert E. (Fairview, PA); Basic, Steven L. (Hornell, NY); Smith, Russel M. (North East, PA)

    1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    A coal slurry fuel supply and purge system for a locomotive engines is disclosed which includes a slurry recirculation path, a stand-by path for circulating slurry during idle or states of the engine when slurry fuel in not required by the engine, and an engine header fluid path connected to the stand-by path, for supplying and purging slurry fuel to and from fuel injectors. A controller controls the actuation of valves to facilitate supply and purge of slurry to and from the fuel injectors. A method for supplying and purging coal slurry in a compression ignition engine is disclosed which includes controlling fluid flow devices and valves in a plurality of fluid paths to facilitate continuous slurry recirculation and supply and purge of or slurry based on the operating state of the engine.

  1. Separation process using microchannel technology

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tonkovich, Anna Lee (Dublin, OH); Perry, Steven T. (Galloway, OH); Arora, Ravi (Dublin, OH); Qiu, Dongming (Bothell, WA); Lamont, Michael Jay (Hilliard, OH); Burwell, Deanna (Cleveland Heights, OH); Dritz, Terence Andrew (Worthington, OH); McDaniel, Jeffrey S. (Columbus, OH); Rogers, Jr.; William A. (Marysville, OH); Silva, Laura J. (Dublin, OH); Weidert, Daniel J. (Lewis Center, OH); Simmons, Wayne W. (Dublin, OH); Chadwell, G. Bradley (Reynoldsburg, OH)

    2009-03-24T23:59:59.000Z

    The disclosed invention relates to a process and apparatus for separating a first fluid from a fluid mixture comprising the first fluid. The process comprises: (A) flowing the fluid mixture into a microchannel separator in contact with a sorption medium, the fluid mixture being maintained in the microchannel separator until at least part of the first fluid is sorbed by the sorption medium, removing non-sorbed parts of the fluid mixture from the microchannel separator; and (B) desorbing first fluid from the sorption medium and removing desorbed first fluid from the microchannel separator. The process and apparatus are suitable for separating nitrogen or methane from a fluid mixture comprising nitrogen and methane. The process and apparatus may be used for rejecting nitrogen in the upgrading of sub-quality methane.

  2. Separators - Technology review: Ceramic based separators for secondary batteries

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nestler, Tina; Schmid, Robert; Münchgesang, Wolfram; Bazhenov, Vasilii; Meyer, Dirk C. [Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg, Institut für Experimentelle Physik, Leipziger Str. 23, 09596 Freiberg (Germany); Schilm, Jochen [Fraunhofer-Institut für Keramische Technologien und Systeme IKTS, Winterbergstraße 28, 01277 Dresden (Germany); Leisegang, Tilmann [Fraunhofer-Technologiezentrum Halbleitermaterialien THM, Am St.-Niclas-Schacht 13, 09599 Freiberg (Germany)

    2014-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

    Besides a continuous increase of the worldwide use of electricity, the electric energy storage technology market is a growing sector. At the latest since the German energy transition ('Energiewende') was announced, technological solutions for the storage of renewable energy have been intensively studied. Storage technologies in various forms are commercially available. A widespread technology is the electrochemical cell. Here the cost per kWh, e. g. determined by energy density, production process and cycle life, is of main interest. Commonly, an electrochemical cell consists of an anode and a cathode that are separated by an ion permeable or ion conductive membrane - the separator - as one of the main components. Many applications use polymeric separators whose pores are filled with liquid electrolyte, providing high power densities. However, problems arise from different failure mechanisms during cell operation, which can affect the integrity and functionality of these separators. In the case of excessive heating or mechanical damage, the polymeric separators become an incalculable security risk. Furthermore, the growth of metallic dendrites between the electrodes leads to unwanted short circuits. In order to minimize these risks, temperature stable and non-flammable ceramic particles can be added, forming so-called composite separators. Full ceramic separators, in turn, are currently commercially used only for high-temperature operation systems, due to their comparably low ion conductivity at room temperature. However, as security and lifetime demands increase, these materials turn into focus also for future room temperature applications. Hence, growing research effort is being spent on the improvement of the ion conductivity of these ceramic solid electrolyte materials, acting as separator and electrolyte at the same time. Starting with a short overview of available separator technologies and the separator market, this review focuses on ceramic-based separators. Two prominent examples, the lithium-ion and sodium-sulfur battery, are described to show the current stage of development. New routes are presented as promising technologies for safe and long-life electrochemical storage cells.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level:Energy: Grid Integration Redefining What'sis Taking Over Our Instagram Secretary Moniz9 SeptemberSettingUncertainties in the Short-Term

  4. Gas separation membrane module assembly

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Wynn, Nicholas P (Palo Alto, CA); Fulton, Donald A. (Fairfield, CA)

    2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

    A gas-separation membrane module assembly and a gas-separation process using the assembly. The assembly includes a set of tubes, each containing gas-separation membranes, arranged within a housing. The housing contains a tube sheet that divides the space within the housing into two gas-tight spaces. A permeate collection system within the housing gathers permeate gas from the tubes for discharge from the housing.

  5. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  6. Separation Membrane Development (Separation Using Encapsulated Metal Hydride)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Separation Membrane Development (Separation Using Encapsulated Metal Hydride) L. Kit Heung Savannah: The first is to produce a sol-gel encapsulated metal hydride packing material that will a) absorbs hydrogen may be that hydrogen must come from multiple sources. These sources will include renewable (solar

  7. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price.................................................................................................................................. 27 INTRODUCTION The Council prepares and periodically updates a 20-year forecast of wholesale to forecast wholesale power prices. AURORAxmp® provides the ability to inco

  8. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  forecasts in the US.   Solar Energy.   84:12, 2161?2172.  

  9. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean...

  10. Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Statton, James Cody

    2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

    . This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%....

  11. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR RADIATION BASED ON SATELLITE DATA WITH STATISTICAL METHODS Annette governing the insolation, forecasting of solar radiation makes the description of development of the cloud

  12. Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

  13. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  14. Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Homes, Christopher C.

    Forecasting Benefits Use of state-of-art wind and solar forecasts reduces WECC operating costs by up to 14/MWh of wind and solar generation). WECC operating costs could be reduced by an additional $500 million

  15. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

  16. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  17. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  18. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

  19. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  20. Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General Circulation Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arumugam, Sankar

    Improving Groundwater Predictions Utilizing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts from General. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater

  1. Earnings Management Pressure on Audit Clients: Auditor Response to Analyst Forecast Signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Newton, Nathan J.

    2013-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

    This study investigates whether auditors respond to earnings management pressure created by analyst forecasts. Analyst forecasts create an important earnings target for management, and professional standards direct auditors to consider how...

  2. Forecasting the demand for electric vehicles: accounting for attitudes and perceptions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bierlaire, Michel

    prediction, transportation, attitudes and perceptions, hybrid choice models, fractional factorial design: survey design, model estimation and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with issues related to the application of models designed to forecast demand for new alternatives, most

  3. Price forecasting for U.S. cattle feeders: which technique to apply?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hicks, Geoff Cody

    1997-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    both feeder cattle costs and corn costs, and maximizing fed cattle prices. This research strives to evaluate the accuracy of six distinct price forecasting techniques over an eleven year period. The forecast techniques selected for this analysisare...

  4. Streamflow Forecasting Based on Statistical Applications and Measurements Made with Rain Gage and Weather Radar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hudlow, M.D.

    Techniques for streamflow forecasting are developed and tested for the Little Washita River in Oklahoma. The basic input for streamflow forecasts is rainfall. the rainfall amounts may be obtained from several sources; however, this study...

  5. CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Su, Xiao

    CALCULATING THE CARBON FOOTPRINT SUPPLY CHAIN FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY A LEARNING TOOL By a complete supply chain #12;Carbon Footprint Supply Chain Carbon Trust defines carbon footprint of a supply chain as follows: "The carbon footprint of a product is the carbon dioxide emitted across the supply

  6. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  7. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  8. Petroleum supply annual 1993. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1993 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains four sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, Refinery Capacity, and Oxygenate Capacity each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1993, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Below is a description of each section in Volume 1 of the PSA.

  9. Petroleum supply annual 1994. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1995-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1994 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains four sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, Refinery Capacity, and Oxygenate Capacity each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1994, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. Below is a description of each section in Volume 1 of the PSA.

  10. Petroleum supply annual, 1997. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1998-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflects data that were collected from the petroleum industry during 1997 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains three sections: Summary Statistics, Detailed Statistics, and Refinery Statistics; each with final annual data. The second volume contains final statistics for each month of 1997, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes 1 and 2 are similarly numbered to facilitate comparison between them. 16 figs., 48 tabs.

  11. CONCEPTUAL DESIGN STUDY OF HORN POWER SUPPLY.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ZHANG,W.; SANDBERG,J.; WENG,W.T.

    2003-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

    A 250 kA pulsed power supply is required for the focusing horn of the proposed Brookhaven AGS Super Neutrino Beam Facility for long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment. It is expected to pulse at 2.5 Hz repetition rate. A preliminary study is being conducted to explore the key issues associated with the power supply system design. Advanced technologies used in similar systems as well as new ideas are being examined, simulated and evaluated. This power supply will be a very high stored energy, high average power, and high peak power system.

  12. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  13. Separator material for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cieslak, W.R.; Storz, L.J.

    1991-03-26T23:59:59.000Z

    An electrochemical cell is characterized as utilizing an aramid fiber as a separator material. The aramid fibers are especially suited for lithium/thionyl chloride battery systems. The battery separator made of aramid fibers possesses superior mechanical strength, chemical resistance, and is flame retardant.

  14. Separator material for electrochemical cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cieslak, Wendy R. (1166 Laurel Loop NE., Albuquerque, NM 87122); Storz, Leonard J. (2215 Ambassador NE., Albuquerque, NM 87112)

    1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    An electrochemical cell characterized as utilizing an aramid fiber as a separator material. The aramid fibers are especially suited for lithium/thionyl chloride battery systems. The battery separator made of aramid fibers possesses superior mechanical strength, chemical resistance, and is flame retardant.

  15. Three phase downhole separator process

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cognata, Louis John (Baytown, TX)

    2008-06-24T23:59:59.000Z

    Three Phase Downhole Separator Process (TPDSP) is a process which results in the separation of all three phases, (1) oil, (2) gas, and (3) water, at the downhole location in the well bore, water disposal injection downhole, and oil and gas production uphole.

  16. Entrepreneurial separation to transfer technology.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fairbanks, Richard R.

    2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Entrepreneurial separation to transfer technology (ESTT) program is that entrepreneurs terminate their employment with Sandia. The term of the separation is two years with the option to request a third year. Entrepreneurs are guaranteed reinstatement by Sandia if they return before ESTT expiration. Participants may start up or helpe expand technology businesses.

  17. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  18. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 27 OCTOBER 10, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  19. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  20. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  1. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 12 OCTOBER 25, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  2. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  3. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13 SEPTEMBER 26, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  4. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18 AUGUST 31, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  5. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 11 OCTOBER 24, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for individual event parameters such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three

  6. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    that we are trying to predict with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1. Table 1: ACE forecast definition. Parameter

  7. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  8. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fourth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  9. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4 AUGUST 17, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  10. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 29 OCTOBER 12, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  11. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 11 SEPTEMBER 24, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  12. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the fifth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  13. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Birner, Thomas

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the third year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  14. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 28 SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Collett Jr., Jeffrey L.

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the sixth year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone activity starting in early such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  15. COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 13 OCTOBER 26, 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gray, William

    with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all This is the second year that we have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting such as named storms and hurricanes. We issue forecasts for ACE using three categories as defined in Table 1

  16. Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kolter, J. Zico

    -Gaussian case using the copula transform. On a wind power forecasting task, we show that this probabilisticLarge-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random high-dimensional conditional Gaussian distributions to forecasting wind power and extend it to the non

  17. EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    EUROBRISA: A EURO-BRazilian Initiative for improving South American seasonal forecasts by Caio A. S. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters

  18. Hourly Temperature Forecasting Using Abductive Networks R. E. Abdel-Aal

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.

    ANNGSF) and for forecasting the one-hour-ahead heat load for a district heat load network (Seppälä et al and network analysis functions in power utilities. Since high-low temperature forecasts are usually provided-Rohani & Maratukulam, 1998). In other agricultural and environmental applications, even high-low temperature forecasts

  19. Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generationDevelopment, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast

  20. Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application to Slovakian and French

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts; application-term forecast of electricity consumption based on ensemble methods. That is, we use several possibly independent´erieure and CNRS. hal-00484940,version1-19May2010 #12;Forecast of the electricity consumption by aggregation

  1. 2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perez, Richard R.

    2008 European PV Conference, Valencia, Spain COMPARISON OF SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS FOR THE USA J models 1 INTRODUCTION Solar radiation and PV production forecasts are becoming increasingly important/) three teams of experts are benchmarking their solar radiation forecast against ground truth data

  2. Robust Pareto Optimum Routing of Ships Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berlin,Technische Universität

    Robust Pareto ­ Optimum Routing of Ships utilizing Deterministic and Ensemble Weather Forecasts the SEAROUTES project, who provided me with exquisite weather forecasts, and who inspired me to apply ensemble ship operation. The more reliable weather forecasts and performance simulation of ships in a seaway

  3. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  4. Segmentation strategies for managing retail supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Catherine G. (Catherine Gloria)

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    High-technology manufacturing companies often face rapid price decline and capacity constraints. Especially in the retail side of the business where the supply chain is much longer and revenue is sometimes not recognized ...

  5. Handling Food and Supplies during Power Loss

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anding, Jenna

    2005-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    This publication lists foods that are safe to eat without cooking or refrigeration. There is also a list of supplies you will need when gas and electrical service is unavailable....

  6. Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop Agenda

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    List of Assumptions and Draft Workshop Agenda for the Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop, February 3-4, 2014, Golden, Colorado, from the U.S. Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office.

  7. Supply chain practices in the petroleum downstream

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Santos Manzano, Fidel

    2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis studies current supply chain practices in the petroleum downstream industry, using ExxonMobil as a case study. Based on the analysis of the literature and the interaction with industry experts, this work describes ...

  8. Essays on Married Women Labor Supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Xinrong

    2012-02-14T23:59:59.000Z

    One of the very interesting demographic features in the US over the last three decades of the 20th century is the increase of the married women labor force participation rate. Over the same period, estimated labor supply elasticity varies...

  9. An analysis of oil supply disruption scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mork, Knut Anton

    1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This report brings the results of simulations of some oil supply disruptions on the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory Energy Macro Model. This model has previously been used to study the macroeconomic effects of the 1973-74 and ...

  10. Polynomial policies in supply chain networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    He, Liwei

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis aims to solve the periodic-reviewed inventory control problem in supply chain networks with uncertain demand so as to minimize the overall cost of the system over a fixed planning time horizon. In such problems, ...

  11. Returning Home After a Disaster: Supply List

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Norman, Lisa

    2005-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

    When you return home after a disaster, you will want to have sturdy shoes, proper tools, clothes and medications for several days, and a first-aid kit. This publication also includes a list of necessary cleaning supplies....

  12. Supplies Needed Polyester Fleece (13" x 23")

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Supplies Needed Polyester Fleece (13" x 23") Polyester Thread This one is easy. Really easy inclined, add a drawstring to the top and it will double as a hat. Pretty cool, eh? Texas 4-H Clothing

  13. Supply chain and the executive agenda

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peruvankal, James Paul

    2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    In recent years, supply chain pundits and consultants emphasized the importance of strategies such as just-in-time, lean manufacturing, off- shoring or frequent deliveries to retail outlets. However, with significant ...

  14. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Arun Majumdar

    2010-01-08T23:59:59.000Z

    July 29, 2008 Berkeley Lab lecture: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  15. Risk in the Global Supply Chain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Datta, Shoumen

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Carbon footprints are not on the priority list of risk analysts in operations management for at least half or more of global businesses. What are the other risks in the global supply chain?

  16. Power supply noise in delay testing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Jing

    2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

    As technology scales into the Deep Sub-Micron (DSM) regime, circuit designs have become more and more sensitive to power supply noise. Excessive noise can significantly affect the timing performance of DSM designs and cause ...

  17. Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve | Department of Energy

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    supplements the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, a one million barrel supply of ultra-low sulfur diesel, which was used for the first time by first-responders and to fill...

  18. Competitive developments in the electric supply industry

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruder, G.F.; Lively, M.

    1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    Competition in the electric supply industry is outlined. The following topics are discussed: six impending major developments in the electric industry; recent and projected developments in the industry; where is the industry headed?; and what the future holds.

  19. Response to changes in demand/supply

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Response to changes in demand/supply through improved marketing 21.2 #12;#12;111 Impacts of changes operating by some Korean paper companies for acquiring needed pulpwood as a first step for the construction

  20. How to Reduce Energy Supply Costs 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swanson, G.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    customers control their supply-side costs of energy. Specific topics include distributive wind power generation and solid fuel boilers. It identities factors to consider in determining whether these technologies are economically viable for customers...

  1. Hierarchical Hybrid Power Supply Networks Farinaz Koushanfar

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    management, hybrid power supply, supercapacitors 1. INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION Historically, almost all in a hierarchical power sup- ply network would include batteries, supercapacitors, ionic supercapacitors, and future cycle, supercapacitors are advantageous rel- ative to the standard che

  2. The supply chain response to environmental pressures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paquette, Julie Rebecca

    2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Understanding and shaping the relationship between supply chain management and the natural environment is critical not only to human health and the environment, but to the future success of business. While the cumulative ...

  3. RECYCLING: SUPPLY, ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Abubakr, Said

    RECYCLING: SUPPLY, ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY Panel Discussion Roundtable Moderator: S, although higher market values for recyclable will certainly stimulate increased interest in collection in recycling and deinking technologies and process design among North American, European, and Pacific Rim

  4. Impact of demographics on supply chain risk management practices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kanyagui, Kenneth (Kenneth K.)

    2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    Do demographic factors play a role in the choice of supply chain risk management practices by supply chain professionals? Are there stronger relationships between certain demographic factors and supply chain risk management ...

  5. Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery University of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12 of Massachusetts Amherst Securing the Sustainability of Medical Nuclear Supply Chains #12;This presentation

  6. Dynamic Electric Power Supply Chains and Transportation Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Dynamic Electric Power Supply Chains and Transportation Networks: an Evolutionary Variational energy Electric power supply chains, provide the foundations for theElectric power supply chains, provide and societies. Communication, transportation, heating, lighting, cooling,Communication, transportation, heating

  7. Air Handling Unit Supply Air Temperature Optimization During Economizer Cycles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xu, K.; Liu, M.; Wang, G.; Wang, Z.

    2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    temperature at supply air temperature setpoint. Mechanical cooling is always required when outside air temperature is higher than the supply air temperature setpoint. Generally the supply air temperature setpoint is set at 55°F for space humidity control...

  8. An engineering approach to improving hospital supply chains

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cheng, Scott Hsiang-Jen

    2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This thesis explores supply chain management practices that have been implemented, and have improved supply chains in industries outside of healthcare. The presented supply chain practices have been selected because they ...

  9. Integrated Planning and Management for Urban Water Supplies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pasternack, Gregory B.

    Positions for Water Supply Reliability ................................. 15 4 Shortage Management Modeling.2: Diagram of Water Supply Reliability Model Structure ..................49 5.3: Steps Used in ShortageIntegrated Planning and Management for Urban Water Supplies Considering Multiple Uncertainties Jay

  10. Seasonal demand and supply analysis of turkeys

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blomo, Vito James

    1972-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

    SEASONAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF TURKEYS A Thesis by VITO JAMES BLOMO Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1972 Ma)or Sub...)ect: Agricultural Economics SEASONAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF TURKEYS A Thesis by VITO JAMES BLOMO Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of C mmittee) (Head of Department) (Member) (Member) ( ber) (Memb er) May 1972 ABSTRACT Seasonal...

  11. Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Curve

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Augustine, C.; Young, K. R.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper documents the approach used to update the U.S. geothermal supply curve. The analysis undertaken in this study estimates the supply of electricity generation potential from geothermal resources in the United States and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), capital costs, and operating and maintenance costs associated with developing these geothermal resources. Supply curves were developed for four categories of geothermal resources: identified hydrothermal (6.4 GWe), undiscovered hydrothermal (30.0 GWe), near-hydrothermal field enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) (7.0 GWe) and deep EGS (15,900 GWe). Two cases were considered: a base case and a target case. Supply curves were generated for each of the four geothermal resource categories for both cases. For both cases, hydrothermal resources dominate the lower cost range of the combined geothermal supply curve. The supply curves indicate that the reservoir performance improvements assumed in the target case could significantly lower EGS costs and greatly increase EGS deployment over the base case.

  12. Forecasting potential project risks through leading indicators to project outcome

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Choi, Ji Won

    2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

    , the Construction Industry Institute (CII) formed a research team to develop a new tool that can forecast the potential risk of not meeting specific project outcomes based on assessing leading indicators. Thus, the leading indicators were identified and then the new...

  13. Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tesfatsion, Leigh

    1 Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets Qun Zhou--In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time

  14. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  15. Classification of Commodity Price Forecast With Random Forests and Bayesian

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    de Freitas, Nando

    economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

  16. Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dalang, Robert C.

    Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC generation. The use of energy storage compensates to some extent these negative effects; it plays a buffer role between demand and production. We revisit a model of real storage proposed by Bejan et al.[1]. We

  17. 1994 battery shipment review and five-year forecast report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fetherolf, D. [East Penn Manufacturing Co., Lyon Station, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

    This paper presents a 1994 battery shipment review and five year forecast report. Data is presented on replacement battery shipments, battery shipments, car and truck production, truck sales, original equipment, shipments for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and ten year battery service life trend.

  18. The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Moscibrodzka1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gammie, Charles F.

    The Galactic Center Weather Forecast M. Mo´scibrodzka1 , H. Shiokawa2 , C. F. Gammie2,3 , J*. The > 3M cloud will #12;­ 2 ­ interact strongly with gas near nominal pericenter at rp 300AU 8000GM/c2 transient phase while the flow circularizes-- accompanied by transient emission--it is natural to think

  19. GenForecast(26yr)(avg).PDF

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SLCAIP Historical & Forecast Generation at Plant Total Range of Hydrology 0 2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 2 1...

  20. WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    WIND POWER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING Henrik Aalborg Nielsen1 , Henrik Madsen1 , Torben Skov Nielsen1. In this paper we address the problems of (i) transforming the mete- orological ensembles to wind power ensembles the uncertainty which follow from historical (climatological) data. However, quite often the actual wind power