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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Forecasting supply/demand and price of ethylene feedstocks  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The history of the petrochemical industry over the past ten years clearly shows that forecasting in a turbulent world is like trying to predict tomorrow's headlines.

Struth, B.W.

1984-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

2

Energy in Europe: Demand, Forecast, Control and Supply  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adequate and reasonably-priced energy supplies are fundamental to the functioning of the economy and to the stability of the society of all countries. Energy questions, therefore, have become of steadily incre...

H.-F. Wagner

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

The outlook for Operations Research: will business education supply enough management science new entrants to meet forecast demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Can Management Science in Business Education become sufficiently popular to fill forecast demands for new entrants to its Operations Research (OR) subset? Based upon papers by numerous authors, this paper identifies an interesting phenomenon â?? an increasingly applicable field of Management Science plagued by students avoiding entry. This paper discusses the results of an examination of this phenomenon's background, provides data collected concerning current supply of and projected demand for new entrants in a subset of Management Science; examines the continuing call for new approaches to teaching Management Science as a means of attracting new entrants; and presents continued research suggestions.

Richard A. McMahon; Peter D. DeVries

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Improved climate forecast accuracy: implications for the aggregate sorghum supply curve  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

for 19 sites, one in Australia (Jondaryan) and 18 in Texas, with and without SO information for five prices and three SO events. From these site yields expected aggregate supply curves weighted by hectares for Texas and Jondaryan are developed. Aggregated...

Hill, Harvey S. J.

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

6

A Monte Carlo approach to forecasting the demand for offshore supply vessels  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the near future, the demand for offshore supply vessels in Brazil will be driven by the activities induced by the bids carried out by the regulatory agency, ANP. The likely tendency is to increase the number of bids and consequently, the demand for vessels in the coming years. The proposed model consists of a Monte Carlo simulation of the offshore oil exploration and production projects. The model considers some parameters that aim at capturing the effect of the operators patterns, water depth, duration of seismic research and exploration and drilling work, number of wells, geographic location and geological risk. An estimate is obtained for the additional offshore supply vessels demand, for the period of 2006-2008.

Jr">Floriano C.M. Pires Jr; Augusto R. Antoun

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

7

Forecasting and inventory performance in a two-stage supply chain with ARIMA(0,1,1) demand: Theory and empirical analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ARIMA(0,1,1) demand model has been analysed extensively by researchers and used widely by forecasting practitioners due to its attractive theoretical properties and empirical evidence in its support. However, no empirical investigations have been conducted in the academic literature to analyse demand forecasting and inventory performance under such a demand model. In this paper, we consider a supply chain formed by a manufacturer and a retailer facing an ARIMA(0,1,1) demand process. The relationship between the forecasting accuracy and inventory performance is analysed along with an investigation on the potential benefits of forecast information sharing between the retailer and the manufacturer. Results are obtained analytically but also empirically by means of experimentation with the sales data related to 329 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) from a major European superstore. Our analysis contributes towards the development of the current state of knowledge in the areas of inventory forecasting and forecast information sharing and offers insights that should be valuable from the practitioner perspective.

M.Z. Babai; M.M. Ali; J.E. Boylan; A.A. Syntetos

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Future scenarios and trends in energy generation in brazil: supply and demand and mitigation forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The structure of the Brazilian energy matrix defines Brazil as a global leader in power generation from renewable sources. In 2011, the share of renewable sources in electricity production reached 88.8%, mainly due to the large national water potential. Although the Brazilian energy model presents a strong potential for expansion, the total energy that could be used with most current renewable technologies often outweighs the national demand. The current composition of the national energy matrix has outstanding participation of hydropower, even though the country has great potential for the exploitation of other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biomass. This document therefore refers to the trend of evolution of the Brazilian Energy Matrix and exposes possible mitigation scenarios, also considering climate change. The methodology to be used in the modeling includes the implementation of the LEAP System (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) program, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute, which allows us to propose different scenarios under the definition of socioeconomic scenarios and base power developed in the context of the REGSA project (Promoting Renewable Electricity Generation in South America). Results envision future scenarios and trends in power generation in Brazil, and the projected demand and supply of electricity for up to 2030.

José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório De Andrade Guerra; Luciano Dutra; Norma Beatriz Camisão Schwinden; Suely Ferraz de Andrade

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Wind Power Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email List Self Supplied Balancing Reserves Dynamic...

10

The Offshore Wind Market Deployment: Forecasts For 2020, 2030 And Impacts On The European Supply Chain Development  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Almost 4 GW of offshore wind power capacity will be installed in European waters at the end of 2011. The impressive growth of the sector during the last decades continues and by 2020, EWEA expects 40 GW of offshore wind capacity to be installed across Europe and 150 GW by 2030. However, the growth of the offshore wind sector will not happen without a strong supply chain underpinning its development. This paper presents the latest developments of the offshore wind power market and the objectives the supply chain needs to meet to assist the growth of the industry.

Arapogianni Athanasia; Genachte Anne-Bénédicte; Moccia Jacopo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Coal: evolving supply and demand in world seaborne steam coal trade. [1975 to 1985; forecasting to 1995  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the evolution of world seaborne steam coal trade since 1975. It highlights current trends and the historic and present sources of supply and demand and discusses selected factors that may affect future world trade patterns. It concludes with a general discussion on the prospects for United States participation in the growing world markets for steam coal. Worldwide seaborne steam coal trade is linked very closely to the generation of electricity and industrial use of process heat in cement and other manufacturing plants. The main factors that influence this trade are: economic growth, electricity demand, indigenous coal production (and degree of protection from lower cost coal imports), and the delivered costs of coal relative to other substitutable fuels. It may be of interest to know how these factors have changed seaborne steam coal trade in the past twelve years. In 1970, the total world use of steam coal was about two billion short tons. International trade in steam coal was only 80 million tons or about 4% of the total. Seaborne trade accounted for about 30% of international trade, or about 25 million tons. In 1982, the latest year for which good statistics are available, total world use of steam coal was about 3.6 billion tons. Seaborne steam coal trade was 110 million tons which is about 3% of the total and 37% of the international trade. 11 figs., 2 tabs.

Yancik, J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

RACORO Forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Daniel Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma ARM AAF Wiki page Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance...

13

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

14

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

15

More Supply Possible This Fall than Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: Increased distillate fuel production sure seems to explain some of the January 2001 stock increase. This graph shows the distillate yield pattern over the 1990's. Generally yields rise in the fall to build stocks for winter distillate use. On average, the yield during the fourth quarter is about 2% higher than the average of the lowest yield months of June, July and August. (Recognize that a 1% change in yield is about a 150 MB/D change in distillate production, which is about 4% of winter demand.) During the fall of 1996, the winter season began with very low stocks, but refiners pushed yields to very high levels and regained some of the lost ground. As we saw earlier, we entered last winter in a similar situation as 1996 with low stock levels. At last year's SHOPP conference, Joanne Shore

16

Economic analysis of the meat supply chain  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and overseas animal disease outbreaks on the Korean meat supply chain. Market impacts are investigated using both forecasts and historical decomposition of price innovations based on an error correction model (ECM) of the Korean meat sector. Results indicate...

Park, Moon-Soo

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

17

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer University, D-26111 Oldenburg Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources into existing energy supply structures. Fluctuations of solar irradiance

Heinemann, Detlev

18

FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management ­ a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting waterFORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil

Keller, Arturo A.

19

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

20

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Forecasting wireless communication technologies  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of the paper is to present a formal comparison of a variety of multiple regression models in technology forecasting for wireless communication. We compare results obtained from multiple regression models to determine whether they provide a superior fitting and forecasting performance. Both techniques predict the year of wireless communication technology introduction from the first (1G) to fourth (4G) generations. This paper intends to identify the key parameters impacting the growth of wireless communications. The comparison of technology forecasting approaches benefits future researchers and practitioners when developing a prediction of future wireless communication technologies. The items of focus will be to understand the relationship between variable selection and model fit. Because the forecasting error was successfully reduced from previous approaches, the quadratic regression methodology is applied to the forecasting of future technology commercialisation. In this study, the data will show that the quadratic regression forecasting technique provides a better fit to the curve.

Sabrina Patino; Jisun Kim; Tugrul U. Daim

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Wind Power Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has configured a Wind Power Forecasting System for Xcel Energy that integrates high resolution and ensemble...

Sue Ellen Haupt; William P. Mahoney; Keith Parks

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Energy Demand Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents alternative approaches used in forecasting energy demand and discusses their pros and cons. It... Chaps. 3 and 4 ...

S. C. Bhattacharyya

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This project studied and analyzed Electronic Controls, Inc.’s forecasting process for three high-demand products. In addition, alternative forecasting methods were developed to compare to the current forecast method. The ...

Balandran, Juan

2005-12-16T23:59:59.000Z

26

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up

27

CAPP 2010 Forecast.indd  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecast, Markets & Pipelines 1 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipelines June 2010 2 CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by the...

28

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model By Tancred C.M. Lidderdale This article first appeared in the Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement 1995, Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0202(95) (Washington, DC, July 1995), pp. 33-42, 83-85. The regression results and historical data for production, inventories, and imports have been updated in this presentation. Contents * Introduction o Table 1. Oxygenate production capacity and demand * Oxygenate demand o Table 2. Estimated RFG demand share - mandated RFG areas, January 1998 * Fuel ethanol supply and demand balance o Table 3. Fuel ethanol annual statistics * MTBE supply and demand balance o Table 4. EIA MTBE annual statistics * Refinery balances

29

Forecast of geothermal drilling activity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The numbers of each type of geothermal well expected to be drilled in the United States for each 5-year period to 2000 AD are specified. Forecasts of the growth of geothermally supplied electric power and direct heat uses are presented. The different types of geothermal wells needed to support the forecasted capacity are quantified, including differentiation of the number of wells to be drilled at each major geothermal resource for electric power production. The rate of growth of electric capacity at geothermal resource areas is expected to be 15 to 25% per year (after an initial critical size is reached) until natural or economic limits are approached. Five resource areas in the United States should grow to significant capacity by the end of the century (The Geysers; Imperial Valley; Valles Caldera, NM; Roosevelt Hot Springs, UT; and northern Nevada). About 3800 geothermal wells are expected to be drilled in support of all electric power projects in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD. Half of the wells are expected to be drilled in the Imperial Valley. The Geysers area is expected to retain most of the drilling activity for the next 5 years. By the 1990's, the Imperial Valley is expected to contain most of the drilling activity.

Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Comparing Forecast Skill  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A basic question in forecasting is whether one prediction system is more skillful than another. Some commonly used statistical significance tests cannot answer this question correctly if the skills are computed on a common period or using a common ...

Timothy DelSole; Michael K. Tippett

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

International Oil Supplies and Demands  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Not Available

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

International Oil Supplies and Demands  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Not Available

1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and stimulate biomedical research. The expert panel recommends that the U.S. government build this capability around either a reactor, an accelerator or a combination of both technologies as long as isotopes for clinical and research applications can be supplied reliably, with diversity in adequate

35

Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? JM Binner 1 P Tino 2 J Tepper 3 R Anderson4 B Jones 5 range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different that there exists a long-run relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and the growth rate of prices

Tino, Peter

36

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Automated Exchanges  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, such as over- supply or scarcity, from historical data using computational methods to construct price density. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions such as pricing and strategic decisions historical data and identified from observable data. We outline how to identify regimes and forecast regime

Ketter, Wolfgang

37

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann Oldenburg.girodo@uni-oldenburg.de ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies

Heinemann, Detlev

38

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

39

Petroleum Supply Monthly Archives  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Supply Monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly Archives With Data for December 2011 | Release Date: February 29, 2012 Changes to Table 26. "Production of Crude Oil by PAD District and State": Current State-level data are now included in Table 26, in addition to current U.S. and PAD District sums. State offshore production for Louisiana, Texas, Alaska, and California, which are included in the State totals, are no longer reported separately in a "State Offshore Production" category. Previously, State-level values lagged 2 months behind the U.S. and PAD District values. Beginning with this publication, they will be on the same cycle. Also included in this publication are two additional pages for Table 26 that provide October and November data. With the release of

40

RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY TO RURAL MEXICO, YEAR 2000  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

ABSTRACT A forecast of the renewable energy supply to rural zones is presented, for Mexico in the year 2000. The social needs of a typical village, the energy requirements associated, the availability of local energy sources and the techno-economic viability of different systems are considered. The required energy to be supplied is about 1.5 and 2.5% of the national total estimated, for electrical and thermal uses, respectively. Eventhough the proposed alternative systems are techno-economically viable, a strong development program could only satisfy 7 to 10% of the electrical demand and 14 to 29% of the heat demand. KEYWORDS Energy supply; Mexico; Forecast studies; Economic Analysis.

Manuel Martinez

1988-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Sandia National Laboratories: solar forecasting  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

42

Consensus Coal Production Forecast for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rate Forecasts 19 5. EIA Forecast: Regional Coal Production 22 6. Wood Mackenzie Forecast: W.V. Steam to data currently published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the state in this report calls for state production to decline by 11.3 percent in 2009 to 140.2 million tons. During

Mohaghegh, Shahab

43

An assessment of electrical load forecasting using artificial neural network  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. The supply industry requires forecasts with lead times, which range from the short term (a few minutes, hours, or days ahead) to the long term (up to 20 years ahead). The major priority for an electrical power utility is to provide uninterrupted power supply to its customers. Long term peak load forecasting plays an important role in electrical power systems in terms of policy planning and budget allocation. This paper presents a peak load forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANN). The approach in the paper is based on multi-layered back-propagation feed forward neural network. For annual forecasts, there should be 10 to 12 years of historical monthly data available for each electrical system or electrical buss. A case study is performed by using the proposed method of peak load data of a state electricity board of India which maintain high quality, reliable, historical data providing the best possible results. Model's quality is directly dependent upon data integrity.

V. Shrivastava; R.B. Misra; R.C. Bansal

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

44

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

45

On Sequential Probability Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

at the same time. [Probability, Statistics and Truth, MacMillan 1957. page 11] ... the collective "denotes a collective wherein the attribute of the single event is the number of points thrown. [Probability, StatisticsOn Sequential Probability Forecasting David A. Bessler 1 David A. Bessler Texas A&M University

McCarl, Bruce A.

46

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sánchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

47

Oil and Gas Supply Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

States, acquire natural gas from foreign producers for resale States, acquire natural gas from foreign producers for resale in the United States, or sell U.S. gas to foreign consumers. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes unconventional gas recovery from low permeability formations of sandstone and shale, and coalbeds. Foreign gas transactions may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico) or transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 89 Figure 7. Oil and Gas Supply Model Regions Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Report #:DOE/EIA-0554(2006) Release date: March 2006

48

Supply/Demand Forecasts Begin to Show Stock Rebuilding  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: During 1999, we saw stock draws during the summer months, when we normally see stock builds, and very large stock draws during the winter of 1999/2000. Normally, crude oil production exceeds product demand in the spring and summer, and stocks build. These stocks are subsequently drawn down during the fourth and first quarters (dark blue areas). When the market is in balance, the stock builds equal the draws. During 2000, stocks have gradually built, but following the large stock draws of 1999, inventories needed to have been built more to get back to normal levels. As we look ahead using EIA's base case assumptions for OPEC production, non-OPEC production, and demand, we expect a more seasonal pattern for the next 3 quarters. But since we are beginning the year with

49

Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A synchronized and responsive flow of materials, information, funds, processes and services is the goal of supply chain planning. Demand planning, which is the very first step of supply chain planning, determines the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the chain. Propagation and magnification of the uncertainty of demand signals through the supply chain, referred to as the bullwhip effect, is the major cause of ineffective operation plans. Therefore, a flexible and robust supply chain forecasting system is necessary for industrial planners to quickly respond to the volatile demand. Appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective in managing the demand variability. This paper uses the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development and systematic analysis, guidelines are provided to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of this research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand should be employed when the aggregated demand is very predictable through its positive autocorrelation. Moreover, the large positive correlation between demands can enhance the predictability and thus result in more accurate forecasts when statistical forecasting methods are used.

Argon Chen; Jakey Blue

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

51

Opportunities for LNG supply infrastructure and demand growth in US and International markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Countries are looking beyond their borders for options to satiate a forecasted increase in natural gas consumption. A strong option for importing natural gas is by way of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain where ...

Connell, Richard Perry

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Ensemble Forecasts and their Verification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· Ensemble forecast verification ­ Performance metrics: Brier Score, CRPSS · New concepts and developments of weather Sources: Insufficient spatial resolution, truncation errors in the dynamical equations

Maryland at College Park, University of

54

Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Probabilistic manpower forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- ing E. Results- Probabilistic Forecasting . 26 27 Z8 29 31 35 36 38 39 IV. CONCLUSIONS. V. GLOSSARY 42 44 APPENDICES REFERENCES 50 70 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Outline of Job-Probability Matrix Job-Probability Matrix. Possible... Outcomes of Job A Possible Outcomes of Jobs A and B 10 Possible Outcomes of Jobs A, B and C II LIST GF FIGURES Figure Page Binary Representation of Numbers 0 Through 7 12 First Cumulative Probability Table 14 3. Graph of Cumulative Probability vs...

Koonce, James Fitzhugh

1966-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Diagnosing Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper reports on the development of a diagnostic approach that can be used to examine the sources of numerical model forecast error that contribute to degraded tropical cyclone (TC) motion forecasts. Tropical cyclone motion forecasts depend ...

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr.; Christopher A. Davis

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of...

58

Forecasting with adaptive extended exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Much of product level forecasting is based upon time series techniques. However, traditional time series forecasting techniques have offered either smoothing constant adaptability or consideration of various t...

John T. Mentzer Ph.D.

59

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

60

Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 ...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-11-29T23:59:59.000Z

62

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

63

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

64

Ultracapacitor separator  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

An ultracapacitor includes two solid, nonporous current collectors, two porous electrodes separating the collectors, a porous separator between the electrodes and an electrolyte occupying the pores in the electrodes and separator. The electrolyte is a polar aprotic organic solvent and a salt. The porous separator comprises a wet laid cellulosic material.

Wei, Chang (Niskayuna, NY); Jerabek, Elihu Calvin (Glenmont, NY); LeBlanc, Jr., Oliver Harris (Schenectady, NY)

2001-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

65

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

66

STEO October 2012 - home heating supplies  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Natural gas, propane, and electricity supplies seen plentiful Natural gas, propane, and electricity supplies seen plentiful this winter for U.S. home heating Supplies of the major heating fuels used by most U.S. households are expected to be plentiful this winter, with the possible exception of heating oil, which is consumed mostly by households in the Northeast. Heating oil stocks are expected to be low in the East Coast and Gulf Coast states. And with New York state requiring heating oil with lower sulfur levels for the first time, the heating oil market is expected to be tighter this winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's new winter fuels forecast. However, U.S. inventories of natural gas, the most common primary heating fuel used by households and a key fuel for electricity generation, is expected to reach 3.9 trillion cubic feet by

67

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Not Available

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Not Available

1992-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Correcting and combining time series forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Combined forecasters have been in the vanguard of stochastic time series modeling. In this way it has been usual to suppose that each single model generates a residual or prediction error like a white noise. However, mostly because of disturbances not ... Keywords: Artificial neural networks hybrid systems, Linear combination of forecasts, Maximum likelihood estimation, Time series forecasters, Unbiased forecasters

Paulo Renato A. Firmino; Paulo S. G. De Mattos Neto; Tiago A. E. Ferreira

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest

71

Neptunium separations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Two procedures for the separation of Np are presented; the first involves separation of /sup 239/Np from irradiated /sup 238/U, and the second involves separation of /sup 237/Np from a solution representing that from a dissolved fuel element.

Wild, J.F.

1983-05-09T23:59:59.000Z

72

Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Forecast Energy Forecast Energy Jump to: navigation, search Name Forecast Energy Address 2320 Marinship Way, Suite 300 Place Sausalito, California Zip 94965 Sector Services Product Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year founded 2010 Number of employees 11-50 Company Type For profit Website http://www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates 37.865647°, -122.496315° Loading map... {"minzoom":false,"mappingservice":"googlemaps3","type":"ROADMAP","zoom":14,"types":["ROADMAP","SATELLITE","HYBRID","TERRAIN"],"geoservice":"google","maxzoom":false,"width":"600px","height":"350px","centre":false,"title":"","label":"","icon":"","visitedicon":"","lines":[],"polygons":[],"circles":[],"rectangles":[],"copycoords":false,"static":false,"wmsoverlay":"","layers":[],"controls":["pan","zoom","type","scale","streetview"],"zoomstyle":"DEFAULT","typestyle":"DEFAULT","autoinfowindows":false,"kml":[],"gkml":[],"fusiontables":[],"resizable":false,"tilt":0,"kmlrezoom":false,"poi":true,"imageoverlays":[],"markercluster":false,"searchmarkers":"","locations":[{"text":"","title":"","link":null,"lat":37.865647,"lon":-122.496315,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":""}]}

73

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

74

Forecasting phenology under global warming  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...Forrest Forecasting phenology under global warming Ines Ibanez 1 * Richard B. Primack...and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species...climate change|East Asia, global warming|growing season, hierarchical...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Demand Forecasting of New Products  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Keeping Unit or SKU) employing attribute analysis techniques. The objective of this thesis is to improve Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock

Sun, Yu

76

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2014 Table 19. PAD District 4 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, October 2014 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field...

77

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

PAD District 2 - Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-October 2014 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply...

78

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Table 21. PAD District 5 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, October 2014 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks...

79

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

0.PDF Table 10. PAD District 4 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition...

80

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE4.PDF Table 4. PAD District 1 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE8.PDF Table 8. PAD District 3 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition...

82

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE6.PDF Table 6. PAD District 2 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition...

83

Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...

Goto, Susumu

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...

85

Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster… (more)

Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

On Bayesian forecasting of procurement delays: a case study: Research Articles  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the engineering and contracting sector, the on-time availability of materials is a crucial element of any project. In recent years, there has been increasing competition in the supply of such components, as a result of market globalization. This has ... Keywords: bidding process, delivery times' forecasts, dynamic linear models, procurement process, project management

Jesus Palomo; Fabrizio Ruggeri; David Rios Insua; Enrico Cagno; Franco Caron; Mauro Mancini

2006-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Solar Energy Market Forecast Solar Energy Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast Agency/Company /Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector: Energy Focus Area: Solar Topics: Market analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type: Publications Website: giffords.house.gov/DOE%20Perspective%20on%20Solar%20Market%20Evolution References: Solar Energy Market Forecast[1] Summary " Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon 'normalization' Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resources"

88

Summary Verification Measures and Their Interpretation for Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensemble prediction systems produce forecasts that represent the probability distribution of a continuous forecast variable. Most often, the verification problem is simplified by transforming the ensemble forecast into probability forecasts for ...

A. Allen Bradley; Stuart S. Schwartz

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

89

Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

Communication of uncertainty in temperature forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We used experimental economics to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. ...

Pricilla Marimo; Todd R. Kaplan; Ken Mylne; Martin Sharpe

91

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Massachusetts state airport system plan forecasts.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This report is a first step toward updating the forecasts contained in the 1973 Massachusetts State System Plan. It begins with a presentation of the forecasting techniques currently available; it surveys and appraises the ...

Mathaisel, Dennis F. X.

93

Antarctic Satellite Meteorology: Applications for Weather Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For over 30 years, weather forecasting for the Antarctic continent and adjacent Southern Ocean has relied on weather satellites. Significant advancements in forecasting skill have come via the weather satellite. The advent of the high-resolution ...

Matthew A. Lazzara; Linda M. Keller; Charles R. Stearns; Jonathan E. Thom; George A. Weidner

2003-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Forecasting Water Use in Texas Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In this research project, a methodology for automating the forecasting of municipal daily water use is developed and implemented in a microcomputer program called WATCAL. An automated forecast system is devised by modifying the previously...

Shaw, Douglas T.; Maidment, David R.

95

Intelligent supply chain by using prognostic logistics  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The use of technological tools in logistics is intended to increase visibility, capacity and control in the supply chain. Decrease of uncertainties due to asymmetric data has been the constant challenge of management. Misdiagnosis of situations and equipment, inaccurate production planning, shrinkage and counterfeiting are some of the consequences of erroneous information. The idea of prognostic logistics is to use real time information and an intelligent system to diagnose and predict early failures and hazardous situations. The automatic capture of information in prognostic logistics has the intent to reduce human errors. Automatic identification technologies enable the creation of a prognostic logistic network where real time information is used to make accurate forecasting, pushing a proactive supply chain instead of a reactive one.

Adriana M. Lopez De La Cruz; Hans P.M. Veeke; Gabriel Lodewijks

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Energy demand forecasting: industry practices and challenges  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Accurate forecasting of energy demand plays a key role for utility companies, network operators, producers and suppliers of energy. Demand forecasts are utilized for unit commitment, market bidding, network operation and maintenance, integration of renewable ... Keywords: analytics, energy demand forecasting, machine learning, renewable energy sources, smart grids, smart meters

Mathieu Sinn

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

97

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 © Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast

Mohaghegh, Shahab

98

Supply Systems Analyst  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

In this position you will serve as a Supply Systems Analyst for Supply Chain Services. The incumbent is responsible for managing and supporting multiple electronic database systems, including Asset...

99

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

100

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Essays on macroeconomics and forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

explanatory variables. Compared to Stock and Watson (2002)�s models, the models proposed in this chapter can further allow me to select the factors structurally for each variable to be forecasted. I find advantages to using the structural dynamic factor...

Liu, Dandan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

102

Forecasting-based SKU classification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Different spare parts are associated with different underlying demand patterns, which in turn require different forecasting methods. Consequently, there is a need to categorise stock keeping units (SKUs) and apply the most appropriate methods in each category. For intermittent demands, Croston's method (CRO) is currently regarded as the standard method used in industry to forecast the relevant inventory requirements; this is despite the bias associated with Croston's estimates. A bias adjusted modification to CRO (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation, SBA) has been shown in a number of empirical studies to perform very well and be associated with a very ‘robust’ behaviour. In a 2005 article, entitled ‘On the categorisation of demand patterns’ published by the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Syntetos et al. (2005) suggested a categorisation scheme, which establishes regions of superior forecasting performance between CRO and SBA. The results led to the development of an approximate rule that is expressed in terms of fixed cut-off values for the following two classification criteria: the squared coefficient of variation of the demand sizes and the average inter-demand interval. Kostenko and Hyndman (2006) revisited this issue and suggested an alternative scheme to distinguish between CRO and SBA in order to improve overall forecasting accuracy. Claims were made in terms of the superiority of the proposed approach to the original solution but this issue has never been assessed empirically. This constitutes the main objective of our work. In this paper the above discussed classification solutions are compared by means of experimentation on more than 10,000 \\{SKUs\\} from three different industries. The results enable insights to be gained into the comparative benefits of these approaches. The trade-offs between forecast accuracy and other implementation related considerations are also addressed.

G. Heinecke; A.A. Syntetos; W. Wang

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Post-seismic supply chain risk management: A system dynamics disruption analysis approach for inventory and logistics planning  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Post-seismic inventory and logistics planning under incomplete and fuzzy information is an important yet understudied area in supply chain risk management. The goal of this paper is to propose a system dynamics model to analyze the behaviors of disrupted ... Keywords: Forecasting method, Inventory and logistics planning, Post-seismic supply chain, Risk management, System dynamics

Min Peng; Yi Peng; Hong Chen

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

104

The effects of collaboration on build-to-order supply chains: with a comparison of BTO, MTO, and MTS  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The initiative of collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment has generally provided rich options of strategies for build-to-order (BTO) supply chain members. In this study, we examined collaborative activities across BTO, make-to-order (MTO), ... Keywords: Build-to-order, CPFR, Collaboration, E-business, Enterprise systems, Market performance, Supply chain

Ling Li, Li Zhang, Marzana Willamowska-Korsak

2014-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

105

Electricity demand and supply projections for Indian economy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The present paper deals with an econometric model to forecast future electricity requirements for various sectors of Indian economy. Following the analysis of time series of sectoral GDPs, number of consumers in various sectors and price indices of electricity, a logarithmic linear regression model has been developed to forecast long-term demand of electricity up to the year 2045. Using the historical GDP growth in various sectors and the corresponding electricity consumption for the period 1971-2005, it is predicted that the total electricity demand will be 5000 billion kWh, against a supply of 1500 billion kWh in the year 2045. This may lead to a disastrous situation for the country unless drastic policy measures are taken to improve the supply side as well as to reduce demand.

Subhash Mallah; N.K. Bansal

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Oil Markets Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. The projected increase in world oil demand would require an increment to world production capability of more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incremental production are based on current proved reserves and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, the substantial investment capital required to produce the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent return on investment.

107

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations – the Northern Study Area.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast

Finley, Cathy [WindLogics

2014-04-30T23:59:59.000Z

108

Forecasting wind speed financial return  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.

D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

Oil and Gas Supply Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Offshore Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Oil Shale Supply Submodule1, and Alaska Oil and Gas Supply Submodule. A detailed description...

110

Oil and Gas Supply Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Offshore Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Oil Shale Supply Submodule, and Alaska Oil and Gas Supply Submodule. A detailed description of...

111

Supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Supply Supply Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 11, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million barrels per day. The data is broken down into crude oil, other petroleum supply, other non petroleum supply and liquid fuel consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO disposition EIA liquid fuels Supply Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition- Reference Case (xls, 117 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License

112

Separation system  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A separation system for dewatering radioactive waste materials includes a disposal container, drive structure for receiving the container, and means for releasably attaching the container to the drive structure. Separation structure disposed in the container adjacent the inner surface of the side wall structure retains solids while allowing passage of liquids. Inlet port structure in the container top wall is normally closed by first valve structure that is centrifugally actuated to open the inlet port and discharge port structure at the container periphery receives liquid that passes through the separation structure and is normally closed by second valve structure that is centrifugally actuated to open the discharge ports. The container also includes coupling structure for releasable engagement with the centrifugal drive structure. Centrifugal force produced when the container is driven in rotation by the drive structure opens the valve structures, and radioactive waste material introduced into the container through the open inlet port is dewatered, and the waste is compacted. The ports are automatically closed by the valves when the container drum is not subjected to centrifugal force such that containment effectiveness is enhanced and exposure of personnel to radioactive materials is minimized.

Rubin, Leslie S. (Newton, MA)

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

Magnets and Power Supplies  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Bibliography Up: APS Storage Ring Parameters Previous: Longitudinal Bibliography Up: APS Storage Ring Parameters Previous: Longitudinal bunch profile and Magnets and Power Supplies Dipole Magnets and Power Supplies Value Dipole Number 80+1 No. of power supplies 1 Magnetic length 3.06 m Core length 3.00 m Bending radius 38.9611 m Power supply limit 500.0 A Field at 7 GeV 0.599 T Dipole trim coils Number 80+1 No. of power supplies 80 Magnetic length 3.06 m Core length 3.00 m Power supply limit 20.0 A Maximum field 0.04 T Horizontal Correction Dipoles Number 317 No. of power supplies 317 Magnetic length 0.160 m Core length 0.07 m Power supply limit 150.0 A Maximum field 0.16 T Max. deflection at 7 GeV 1.1 mrad Vertical Corrector Dipoles Number 317 No. of power supplies 317

114

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Procurement of Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment This Guidance provides a description of the types of requirements to be included in an employer's workplace charging request for...

115

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 ...

Jianguo Liu; Zhenghui Xie

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (...

Felix Fundel; Andre Walser; Mark A. Liniger; Christoph Frei; Christof Appenzeller

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

A B S T R A C T Forecasting in a risky situation is a very important  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. In this research the target item for prediction is PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate) which is the raw material for textile industries and its very sensitive on oil prices and the demand and supply ratio. The main idea of Artificial Intelligence, Financial Forecasting such as Stock Price Predictions entered in new phase. Sadly

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

119

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

H Tables H Tables Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast Comparisons Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides “business as usual” projections to the year 2030 in its World Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projections to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons extend to 2025. Although IEA’s forecast extends to 2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025. In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last year’s report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.

120

Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...

122

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Huge market forecast for linear LDPE ... It now appears that the success of the new technology, which rests largely on energy and equipment cost savings, could be overwhelming. ...

1980-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

123

NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts

124

NUFinancials Supply Chain  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NUFinancials Supply Chain FMS801 & 803 Purchasing Glossary 03/31/2010 © 2010 Northwestern University FMS801 & 803 1 Purchasing Glossary Guide to terms used in iBuyNU and NUFinancials purchasing Term, faculty salary, office supplies. Similar to CUFS Object Code, Revenue Source, and Balance Sheet. Note

Shull, Kenneth R.

125

Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary Name: Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves Agency/Company /Organization: Northwest Power and Conservation Council Sector: Energy Focus Area: Conventional Energy, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Industry, Transportation, Forestry, Agriculture Topics: GHG inventory, Pathways analysis Resource Type: Dataset, Publications Website: www.nwcouncil.org/energy/grac/20090130_Supply%20Curves_NWPCC_FINAL.pdf Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves Screenshot References: Selected GHG Emission Supply Curves[1] Background "The ECL supply curve model includes data on potential emission reductions for approximately 60 separate technology options. It allows the examination of multiple scenarios involving the inclusion or exclusion of technology

126

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

127

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January

128

Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, which are screened at a ...

Jing-Shan Hong; Chin-Tzu Fong; Ling-Feng Hsiao; Yi-Chiang Yu; Chian-You Tzeng

129

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 19. PAD District 4 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 393 - - - - 330 -111 -46 4 562 0 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 406 0 2 15 -333 - - 0 20 9 61 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 58 0 - - - -33 - - 0 6 9 10 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 348 - - 2 15 -299 - -

130

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 23. PAD District 5 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 1,197 - - - - 1,186 - -47 -4 2,340 0 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 69 0 14 4 - - - -60 83 20 43 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 32 0 - - - - - - -1 26 2 5 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 37 - - 14 4 - - - -59

131

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 7. PAD District 1 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 24 - - - - 854 -10 42 -28 935 3 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 42 0 27 67 119 - - -30 26 1 259 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 7 0 - - - - - - 0 - 0 7 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 35 - - 27 67 119 - - -30 26

132

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

6 6 September 2013 Table 20. PAD District 4 - Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 511 - - - - 289 -169 -49 4 579 0 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 316 0 13 11 -264 - - 2 16 15 44 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 50 0 - - 0 -38 - - 0 6 13 -7 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

133

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development

Kemner, Ken

134

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

135

QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS AND ECMWF WIND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near­surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields

Malmberg, Anders

136

PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: Technology Forecast, Laws of Technical systems evolution, Analysis of Contradictions. 1. Introduction Let us: If technology forecasting practice remains at the present level, it is necessary to significantly improve to new demands (like Green House Gases - GHG Effect reduction or covering exploded nuclear reactor

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

137

UHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2

138

Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surfaceAmending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS Integrated Water Vapour: a case study to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents

Stoffelen, Ad

139

A Forecasting Support System Based on Exponential Smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter presents a forecasting support system based on the exponential smoothing scheme to forecast time-series data. Exponential smoothing methods are simple to apply, which facilitates...

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; José V. Segura…

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

principal investigator for the project. For wind power point forecasting, ARGUS PRIMA trains a neural network using data from weather forecasts, observations, and actual wind...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Improved Prediction of Runway Usage for Noise Forecast :.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The research deals with improved prediction of runway usage for noise forecast. Since the accuracy of the noise forecast depends on the robustness of runway… (more)

Dhanasekaran, D.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast...

143

PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenues Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

144

Barloworld Supply Chain Software USA  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Barloworld Supply Chain Software USA Supply Chain Consultant / Inventory Analyst Position November 2011 #12;Barloworld SCS USA ­ Supply Chain / Inventory Analyst Aug 2011 Page 2 of 4 INTRODUCTION Barloworld Supply Chain Software (SCS) USA would like to invite you to apply for a Supply Chain

Heller, Barbara

145

Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

NONE

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Microsoft Word - Petroleum Products Supply Model.docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Petroleum Products Supply Module Petroleum Products Supply Module Short-Term Energy Outlook Model May 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Petroleum Products Supply Module - Short-Term Energy Outlook Model i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or

147

Separation Processes, Second Edition  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

by; Uranium isotopes separation) Iteration methods (seemethod for activity coefficients, 43, 481 Uranium isotopes separation,

King, C. Judson

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

148

1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1994-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

Power Supply Fundamentals  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Liquid Crystal Displays require dedicated power supply circuits to support their specific requirements. Many different display technologies coexist in the market and compete for their market share. While the p...

Oliver Nachbaur

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

GSA Wind Supply Opportunity  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Wind Supply Opportunity 1 2 3 Proposed Location * Size: 100-210 MegaWatts *Location: Bureau County, IL *Planned COD: December 2014 or 2015 *Site Control: 17,000 acres *Wind...

151

European supply chain study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduction: Supply chain management has been defined as, "..a set of approaches utilized to efficiently integrate suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and stores, so that merchandise is produced and distributed at the ...

Puri, Mohitkumar

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Washington's power supply collapse  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... ON 25 July 1983 the Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS) defaulted on 2,250 million of municipal revenue bonds. This, ... has been polemical and accusatory in nature, blaming the Washington State Supreme Court, the Bonneville ...

Roger H. Bezdek

1985-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

153

A hybrid dynamic and fuzzy time series model for mid-term power load forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract A new hybrid model for forecasting the electric power load several months ahead is proposed. To allow for distinct responses from individual load sectors, this hybrid model, which combines dynamic (i.e., air temperature dependency of power load) and fuzzy time series approaches, is applied separately to the household, public, service, and industrial sectors. The hybrid model is tested using actual load data from the Seoul metropolitan area, and its predictions are compared with those from two typical dynamic models. Our investigation shows that, in the case of four-month forecasting, the proposed model gives the actual monthly power load of every sector with only less than 3% absolute error and satisfactory reduction of forecasting errors compared to other models from previous studies.

Woo-Joo Lee; Jinkyu Hong

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.

Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1993-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However

157

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power study. Key words : wind power forecast, ramps, phase er- rors, forecasts ensemble. 1 Introduction Most

Boyer, Edmond

158

The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and number of countries withforeign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts....

Runyan, Bruce Wayne

2005-08-29T23:59:59.000Z

159

Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

2011-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

6 6 September 2013 Table 10. PAD District 2 - Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 366,285 - - - - 501,418 159,175 -109,633 -12,929 918,349 11,825 0 102,610 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 122,918 -4,579 37,556 21,926 4,444 - - 15,132 24,244 34,819 108,070 58,830 Pentanes Plus ..................................................

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

20 20 September 2013 Table 14. PAD District 3 - Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil 6 ............................................................ 1,188,751 - - - - 1,015,091 -112,708 94,064 20,399 2,158,191 6,608 0 882,207 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 440,766 -88 123,986 10,625 46,383 - - 16,960 76,972 72,880 454,860 114,138 Pentanes Plus ..................................................

162

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 2013 Table 2. U.S. Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 2,003,948 - - - - 2,123,490 65,265 6,899 4,157,486 28,318 0 1,067,149 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 686,936 -4,909 195,516 47,812 - - 36,219 127,051 118,364 643,721 189,672 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 92,842 -4,909 - - 10,243 - -

163

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

1.PDF 1.PDF Table 11. PAD District 5 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 36,593 - - - - 31,429 - 4,534 890 71,666 - 0 55,877 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 2,154 -11 1,013 192 - - - -786 2,587 629 918 3,544 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 1,013 -11 - - - - - - -35 842 110 85 36 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

164

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE7.PDF TABLE7.PDF Table 7. PAD District 3 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil 6 ............................................................ 109,919 - - - - 142,073 -20,272 -3,481 6,003 222,236 - 0 858,776 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 43,678 -17 9,648 1,838 7,546 - - -2,299 8,340 4,663 51,989 65,215 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 4,840 -17 - - 1,688 -3,010 - -

165

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4 4 September 2013 Table 8. PAD District 1 - Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 32 - - - - 843 -1 230 8 1,061 35 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 71 0 45 40 77 - - 1 16 10 205 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 12 0 - - 1 0 - - 0 0 2 9 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

166

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 3. U.S. Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 5,877 - - - - 8,716 83 -218 14,841 53 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 2,351 -20 372 252 - - -417 566 206 2,600 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 296 -20 - - 78 - - 37 172 71 75 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 2,055 - - 372 174 - - -454 394 135 2,525

167

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

8 8 September 2013 Table 22. PAD District 5 - Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 300,668 - - - - 297,837 - 31,342 -3,713 633,292 267 0 52,719 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 17,739 -73 18,288 1,401 - - - 3,536 17,170 3,791 12,858 8,270 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 7,914

168

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 5. PAD District 1 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 751 - - - - 26,471 -300 1,308 -869 28,999 100 0 9,902 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 1,313 -7 839 2,091 3,702 - - -929 816 33 8,018 7,618 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 225 -7 - - - - - - 3 - 11 204 31 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

169

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 2013 Table 6. PAD District 1 - Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 8,672 - - - - 230,125 -359 62,824 2,069 289,586 9,606 0 10,326 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 19,329 -83 12,151 10,808 21,118 - - 168 4,287 2,821 56,047 6,541 Pentanes Plus ..................................................

170

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

1. TABLE1.PDF 1. TABLE1.PDF Table 1. U.S. Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 190,109 - - - - 264,348 6,359 12,794 445,596 2,425 0 1,039,424 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 73,905 -587 13,044 6,935 - - -11,335 15,883 8,313 80,436 118,039 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 8,824 -587 - - 1,699 - - -805 4,946 2,754 3,041 16,791 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

171

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2.PDF 2.PDF Table 12. PAD District 5 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 1,180 - - - - 1,014 - 146 29 2,312 - 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 69 0 33 6 - - - -25 83 20 30 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 33 0 - - - - - - -1 27 4 3 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 37 - - 33 6 - - - -24 56 17 27 Ethane/Ethylene

172

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 2013 Table 1. U.S. Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 233,810 - - - - 237,344 8,334 7,688 468,825 2,975 0 1,067,149 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 81,196 -552 19,023 4,020 - - 3,027 16,794 13,937 69,929 189,672 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 11,167 -552 - - 772 - - -700 5,666 2,989 3,432 18,036 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

173

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 1. U.S. Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 182,188 - - - - 270,188 2,576 -6,767 460,074 1,646 0 1,026,829 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 72,869 -607 11,545 7,801 - - -12,921 17,534 6,391 80,604 128,709 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 9,170 -607 - - 2,421 - - 1,146 5,321 2,200 2,317 17,598 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

174

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 17. PAD District 4 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 12,175 - - - - 10,226 -3,426 -1,436 132 17,407 1 0 15,969 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 12,584 -10 52 460 -10,314 - - -12 611 282 1,891 1,375 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 1,788 -10 - - - -1,036 - - -15 174 273 310 180 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

175

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 15. PAD District 3 - Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil 6 ............................................................ 3,327 - - - - 4,646 -720 39 -191 7,482 - 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 1,380 -1 304 84 227 - - -113 306 108 1,693 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 155 -1 - - 77 -58 - - 35 106 1 31 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

176

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 Table 9. PAD District 2 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, December 2011 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 29,019 - - - - 52,699 26,041 2,973 12 109,175 1,544 0 93,189 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 14,079 -560 812 2,541 -423 - - -6,605 4,051 2,114 16,889 48,197 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 1,354 -560 - - 21 2,843 - - 110 1,049

177

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2 2 September 2013 Table 16. PAD District 3 - Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil 6 ............................................................ 4,354 - - - - 3,718 -413 345 75 7,905 24 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 1,615 0 454 39 170 - - 62 282 267 1,666 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 195 0 - - 36 -65 - - 15 113 4 35 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

178

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE9.PDF TABLE9.PDF Table 9. PAD District 4 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 12,961 - - - - 10,783 -3,879 896 2,868 17,893 0 0 18,695 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 12,770 -9 127 502 -11,116 - - -50 621 280 1,423 1,326 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 1,484 -9 - - - -1,152 - - 7 122 264 -70 187 Liquefied Petroleum Gases

179

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

.PDF .PDF Table 3. PAD District 1 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 734 - - - - 26,368 419 -1,209 627 25,554 130 0 10,529 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 1,314 -6 923 1,606 2,621 - - -1,556 707 53 7,254 6,409 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 213 -6 - - - - - - 3 5 6 193 34 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

180

Alternate Water Supply System  

Office of Legacy Management (LM)

Alternate Water Supply Alternate Water Supply System Flushing Report Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site January 2008 Office of Legacy Management DOE M/1570 2008 - -L Work Performed Under DOE Contract No. for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management. DE-AC01-02GJ79491 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Office of Legacy Management Office of Legacy Management Office of Legacy Management U.S. Department of Energy This page intentionally left blank DOE-LM/1570-2008 Alternate Water Supply System Flushing Report Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site January 2008 Work Performed by S.M. Stoller Corporation under DOE Contract No. DE-AC01-02GJ79491 for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management, Grand Junction, Colorado This page intentionally left blank

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

TABLE5.PDF TABLE5.PDF Table 5. PAD District 2 - Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 29,902 - - - - 53,695 23,732 5,619 2,406 108,247 2,295 0 95,547 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 13,989 -544 1,333 2,797 949 - - -6,644 3,628 2,687 18,853 41,545 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 1,274 -544 - - 11 4,162 - - 233 966

182

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

September 2013 Table 4. U.S. Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 7,340 - - - - 7,778 239 25 15,229 104 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 2,516 -18 716 175 - - 133 465 434 2,358 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 340 -18 - - 38 - - 20 168 134 38 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 2,176 - - 716

183

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4 4 September 2013 Table 18. PAD District 4 - Year-to-Date Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 139,573 - - - - 79,019 -46,108 -13,333 1,073 158,068 10 0 19,287 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 86,184 -86 3,535 3,052 -71,945 - - 423 4,378 4,054 11,885 1,893 Pentanes Plus ..................................................

184

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

30 30 September 2013 Table 24. PAD District 5 - Year-to-Date Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January-September 2013 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports (PADD of Entry) 1 Net Receipts 2 Adjust- ments 3 Stock Change 4 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 5 Crude Oil ............................................................. 1,101 - - - - 1,091 - 115 -14 2,320 1 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 65 0 67 5 - - - 13 63 14 47 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 29 0 - - - - - - 1 21 4 3 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ..............................

185

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

.PDF .PDF Table 2. U.S. Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Commodity Supply Disposition Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 6,133 - - - - 8,527 205 413 14,374 78 0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 2,384 -19 421 224 - - -366 512 268 2,595 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 285 -19 - - 55 - - -26 160 89 98 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 2,099 - - 421 169 - - -340 353 179 2,497 Ethane/Ethylene

186

Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2)). Projected production estimates of U.S. crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects U.S. domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

NONE

1995-10-24T23:59:59.000Z

187

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near

Mathiesen, Patrick James

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

190

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

191

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

192

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

193

energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

energy data + forecasting energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. Links: FRED beta demo energy data + forecasting Syndicate content 429 Throttled (bot load) Error 429 Throttled (bot load) Throttled (bot load) Guru Meditation: XID: 2084382122

194

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

195

Evaluation of hierarchical forecasting for substitutable products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper addresses hierarchical forecasting in a production planning environment. Specifically, we examine the relative effectiveness of Top-Down (TD) and Bottom-Up (BU) strategies for forecasting the demand for a substitutable product (which belongs to a family) as well as the demand for the product family under different types of family demand processes. Through a simulation study, it is revealed that the TD strategy consistently outperforms the BU strategy for forecasting product family demand. The relative superiority of the TD strategy further improves by as much as 52% as the product demand variability increases and the degree of substitutability between the products decreases. This phenomenon, however, is not always true for forecasting the demand for the products within the family. In this case, it is found that there are a few situations wherein the BU strategy marginally outperforms the TD strategy, especially when the product demand variability is high and the degree of product substitutability is low.

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; R. Piplani

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing Competing High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasts Eric Gilleland Research Prediction Comparison Test D1 D2 D = D1 ­ D2 copyright NCAR 2013 Loss Differential Field #12;Spatial Prediction Comparison Test Introduced by Hering and Genton

Gilleland, Eric

197

Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The short-term forecasting of capital expenditure presents one of the most difficult problems ... reason is that year-to-year fluctuations in capital expenditure are extremely wide. Some simple methods which...

W. Gerstenberger

1977-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...of each variable on GDP (13, 17), combined with global GDP projections (14...population, and per capita GDP, combined with projected...measure of agricultural demand for water, is forecast...Just as demand for energy is the major cause...

David Tilman; Joseph Fargione; Brian Wolff; Carla D'Antonio; Andrew Dobson; Robert Howarth; David Schindler; William H. Schlesinger; Daniel Simberloff; Deborah Swackhamer

2001-04-13T23:59:59.000Z

199

Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly ...

A. James Wagner

1989-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Updated Satellite Technique to Forecast Heavy Snow  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Certain satellite interpretation techniques have proven quite useful in the heavy snow forecast process. Those considered best are briefly reviewed, and another technique is introduced. This new technique was found to be most valuable in cyclonic ...

Edward C. Johnston

1995-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a support vector machine (SVM)-based forecasting model for the next-day directional change of electricity prices. We first adjust the best autoregressive SVM model and then we enhance it with various related variables. The system is tested on the daily Phelix index of the German and Austrian control area of the European Energy Exchange (???) wholesale electricity market. The forecast accuracy we achieved is 76.12% over a 200 day period.

Theophilos Papadimitriou; Periklis Gogas; Efthimios Stathakis

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Russian metallurgical coal supplies. A near-term perspective  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Calculations were made to estimate the changes in metallurgical coal supplies during the next 10 years. These calculations are based on three sets of data for the forecast period: (1) estimated changes in production at existing coal production and cleaning facilities in Kuznetsk, Pechora, and South Yakutsk basins; (2) production from new facilities as stipulated in licensing agreements for metallurgical coal production; and (3) Russian output of coke and washed coals. Estimates are given for two years: 2010 and 2015. A two-year base period of 2004 and 2005 was chosen because production was low in 2005 due to poor market conditions in the metal industry.

B.P. Kiselev; S.A. Liskovets [FGUP Eastern Coal Chemistry Research Institute (Russian Federation)

2007-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

203

Investigacin Supply chain collaboration  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. These interactions among firms' decisions ask for alignment and coordination of actions. Therefore, game theory quantities, among others. Nowadays, business decisions are dominated by the globalization of markets, and that the decisions taken by a firm do also affect the performance of the other parties in the supply chain

Boucherie, Richard J.

204

Negotiations Within Supply Chains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we consider a negotiation between a supplier and its retailer. Due to the supplier's commitments with other customers the negotiation is about the maximum order quantity the retailer can order at a fixed price. We propose a structuring ... Keywords: capacity, contract, cooperation, negotiations, scenario, supply chain management

Carsten Homburg; Christoph Schneeweiss

2000-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Hydrogen separation membranes - annual report for FY 2007.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry.

Chen, L.; Dorris, S. E.; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J.; Song, S. J.; Energy Systems

2008-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

206

Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

NONE

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Supply Stores | Department of Energy  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Supply Stores Supply Stores Supply Stores DOE Self Service Supply Stores at Headquarters Operated by: Paperclips, Etc. and the Winston-Salem Industries for the Blind DOE Self-Service Supply Stores Hours of Operation: 9:00 a.m. through 4:00 p.m. Monday through Friday DOE Supply Stores Locations Location Phone Fax Forrestal Room GA-171 (202) 554-1451 (202) 554-1452 (202) 554-7074 Germantown Room R-008 (301) 515-9109 (301) 515-9206 (301) 515-8751 The stores provide an Office Supply Product inventory that is tailored to meet the DOE customer's requirements. Office Supply items that are not carried in the store inventory can be special ordered, see the Catalog Order Form section below. The stores are operated for the Department of Energy, Office of Administration, Office of Logistics and Facility Operations, for the Supply

208

Oil and Gas Supply Module  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Oil and Gas Supply Module Oil and Gas Supply Module This page inTenTionally lefT blank 119 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Oil and Gas Supply Module The NEMS Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) constitutes a comprehensive framework with which to analyze crude oil and natural gas exploration and development on a regional basis (Figure 8). The OGSM is organized into 4 submodules: Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Offshore Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Oil Shale Supply Submodule[1], and Alaska Oil and Gas Supply Submodule. A detailed description of the OGSM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: The Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), DOE/EIA-M063(2011), (Washington, DC, 2011). The OGSM provides

209

Forecasting aggregate time series with intermittent subaggregate components: top-down versus bottom-up forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......optimum value through a grid-search algorithm...method outperformed TD for estimating the aggregate data series...variable, there is no benefit of forecasting each subaggregate...forecasting strategies in estimating the `component'-level...WILLEMAIN, T. R., SMART, C. N., SHOCKOR......

S. Viswanathan; Handik Widiarta; Rajesh Piplani

2008-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

211

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

January 2012 January 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 190,109 - - - - 264,348 6,359 12,794 445,596 2,425 0 1,039,424 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 73,905 -587 13,044 6,935 - - -11,335 15,883 8,313 80,436 118,039 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 8,824 -587 - - 1,699 - - -805 4,946 2,754 3,041 16,791 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 65,081 - - 13,044 5,236 - - -10,530 10,937 5,559 77,395 101,248 Ethane/Ethylene

212

The world energy supply  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The pattern of the world's energy supply has undergone dramatic changes over the last century, and particularly over the last twenty years. The growth in the world's population and the ever-greater demand for energy will lead to the global environment being subjected to considerable strain. The world will require a new type of energy system, one that is technically feasible, but which will face many difficulties in gaining social and economic acceptance. The world's future energy supply will depend upon the rational exploitation of resources and the development of high technical standards in the fields of reliability and safety. The required social changes will include a change to more energy-conserving life styles and a strengthening of international co-operation in long-term energy and environmental research and development.

L.H.Th. Rietjens

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

3.PDF 3.PDF Table 13. Crude Oil Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks by PAD District, January 2012 (Thousand Barrels, Except Where Noted) Process PAD Districts U.S. Total 1 2 3 4 5 Total Daily Average Supply Field Production .................................................... 734 29,902 109,919 12,961 36,593 190,109 6,133 Alaskan ............................................................. - - - - - - - - - 18,374 593 Lower 48 States ................................................ - - - - - 171,734 5,540 Imports (PAD District of Entry) ............................. 26,368 53,695 142,073 10,783 31,429 264,348 8,527 Commercial ...................................................... 26,368 53,695 142,073 10,783 31,429 264,348 8,527 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ................. - - - - - - - Net Receipts .........................................................

214

Petroleum Supply Annual  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2012 2012 (Thousand Barrels) Commodity Supply Disposition Ending Stocks Field Production Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production Refinery and Blender Net Production Imports Adjust- ments 1 Stock Change 2 Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Exports Products Supplied 3 Crude Oil 4 ............................................................ 2,374,021 - - - - 3,120,755 53,567 34,134 5,489,516 24,693 0 1,060,764 Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases ................................................... 881,306 -6,534 230,413 62,192 - - 23,894 186,270 115,054 842,159 153,268 Pentanes Plus .................................................. 116,002 -6,534 - - 10,680 - - -4,857 63,596 43,136 18,273 12,739 Liquefied Petroleum Gases .............................. 765,304 - - 230,413 51,512 - - 28,751 122,674 71,918

215

Oil and Gas Supply Module  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Oil and Gas Supply Module The NEMS Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) constitutes a comprehensive framework with which to analyze crude oil and natural gas exploration and development on a regional basis (Figure 8). The OGSM is organized into 4 submodules: Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Offshore Oil and Gas Supply Submodule, Oil Shale Supply Submodule[1], and Alaska Oil and Gas Supply Submodule. A detailed description of the OGSM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: The Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), DOE/EIA-M063(2011), (Washington, DC, 2011). The OGSM provides crude oil and natural gas short-term supply parameters to both the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module and the Petroleum

216

Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Natural gas is the primary source for electricity production in Turkey. However, Turkey does not have indigenous resources and imports more than 98.0% of the natural gas it consumes. In 2011, more than 20.0% of Turkey's annual trade deficit was due to imported natural gas, estimated at US$ 20.0 billion. Turkish government has very ambitious targets for the country's energy sector in the next decade according to the Vision 2023 agenda. Previously, we have estimated that Turkey's annual electricity demand would be 530,000 GWh at the year 2023. Considering current energy market dynamics it is almost evident that a substantial amount of this demand would be supplied from natural gas. However, meticulous analysis of the Vision 2023 goals clearly showed that the information about the natural gas sector is scarce. Most importantly there is no demand forecast for natural gas in the Vision 2023 agenda. Therefore, in this study the aim was to generate accurate forecasts for Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030. For this purpose, two semi-empirical models based on econometrics, gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita, and demographics, population change, were developed. The logistic equation, which can be used for long term natural gas demand forecasting, and the linear equation, which can be used for medium term demand forecasting, fitted to the timeline series almost seamlessly. In addition, these two models provided reasonable fits according to the mean absolute percentage error, MAPE %, criteria. Turkey's natural gas demand at the year 2030 was calculated as 76.8 billion m3 using the linear model and 83.8 billion m3 based on the logistic model. Consequently, found to be in better agreement with the official Turkish petroleum pipeline corporation (BOTAS) forecast, 76.4 billion m3, than results published in the literature.

Mehmet Melikoglu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Protective supplied breathing air garment  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A breathing air garment for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants includes a suit and a separate head protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit rear torso panel permits access into the suit and is sealed with an adhesive sealing flap.

Childers, Edward L. (Lakewood, CO); von Hortenau, Erik F. (Golden, CO)

1984-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

218

Protective supplied breathing air garment  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A breathing air garment is disclosed for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants includes a suit and a separate head protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit rear torso panel permits access into the suit and is sealed with an adhesive sealing flap. 17 figs.

Childers, E.L.; Hortenau, E.F. von.

1984-07-10T23:59:59.000Z

219

Radar-Derived Forecasts of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over Houston, Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Lightning Forecasts..........................................................................................45 2.7 First Flash Forecasts and Lead Times.....................................................................47 vii... Cell Number ? 25 August 2000..............................................68 3.4 First Flash Forecast Time........................................................................................70 3.5 Lightning Forecasting Algorithm (LFA) Development...

Mosier, Richard Matthew

2011-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

220

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2011 December 2011 February 2012 Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Supply Monthly, ii December 2011 EIA DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORM All current EIA publications are available on the EIA web site. Users can view and download selected pages or entire reports, search for information, download EIA data and analysis applications, and find out about new EIA information products and services: World Wide Web: http://www.eia.doe.gov FTP: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov Customers who do not have access to the Internet may call the National Energy Information Center (NEIC) to request a single print-

222

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

With Data for September 2013 With Data for September 2013 November 2013 Energy Information Administration/Petroleum Supply Monthly, ii September 2013 EIA DATA ARE AVAILABLE IN ELECTRONIC FORM All current EIA publications are available on the EIA web site. Users can view and download selected pages or entire reports, search for information, download EIA data and analysis applications, and find out about new EIA information products and services: World Wide Web: http://www.eia.doe.gov FTP: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov Customers who do not have access to the Internet may call the National Energy Information Center (NEIC) to request a single print-

223

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Decemer 2011 Appendix D Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve Information on the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve is available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves web site at http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/heatingoil/. Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) inventories now classified as ultra-low sulfur distillate (15 parts per million) are not considered to be in the commercial sector and therefore are excluded from distillate fuel oil supply and disposition statistics in Energy

224

Petroleum Supply Monthly  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

7 7 September 2013 Appendix D Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve Information on the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve is available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves web site at http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/heatingoil/. Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) inventories now classified as ultra-low sulfur distillate (15 parts per million) are not considered to be in the commercial sector and therefore are excluded from distillate fuel oil supply and disposition statistics in Energy

225

12-32021E2_Forecast  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

FORECAST OF VACANCIES FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2014 (Issue No. 20) Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff at the P4-P5 levels: * Advanced university degree (or equivalent postgraduate degree); * 7 or 10 years, respectively, of experience in a field of relevance to the post; * Resource management experience; * Strong analytical skills; * Computer skills: standard Microsoft Office software; * Languages: Fluency in English. Working knowledge of other official languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish) advantageous; * Ability to work effectively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams; * Ability to communicate effectively. Professional staff at the P1-P3 levels:

226

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Degree Day Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Forecasts Forecasts Degree Day Forecasts example chart Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. Degree Day Forecasts charts show this year, last year and three-year average. Historical degree day charts and energy usage forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700. Expertise Required No special expertise required. Simple to use. Users Over 1,000 weekly users. Audience Anyone who needs degree day forecasts (next 14 days) for the U.S. and Canada. Input Select a weather station (1,200 available) and balance point temperature. Output Charts show (1) degree day (heating and cooling) forecasts for the next 14

227

Building Energy Software Tools Directory: Energy Usage Forecasts  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Energy Usage Forecasts Quick and easy web-based tool that provides free 14-day ahead energy usage forecasts based on the degree day forecasts for 1,200 stations in the U.S. and Canada. The user enters the daily non-weather base load and the usage per degree day weather factor; the tool applies the degree day forecast and displays the total energy usage forecast. Helpful FAQs explain the process and describe various options for the calculation of the base load and weather factor. Historical degree day reports and 14-day ahead degree day forecasts are available from the same site. Keywords degree days, historical weather, mean daily temperature, load calculation, energy simulation Validation/Testing Degree day data provided by AccuWeather.com, updated daily at 0700.

228

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing forecasts for diverse three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators around the world we seek

McBurney, Peter

229

River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Managing water resources generally and managing reservoir operations specifically have been touted as opportunities for applying forecasts to improve decision making. Previous studies have shown that the application of forecasts into water ...

Kevin Werner; Kristen Averyt; Gigi Owen

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

230

Data Mining in Load Forecasting of Power System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This project applies Data Mining technology to the prediction of electric power system load forecast. It proposes a mining program of electric power load forecasting data based on the similarity of time series .....

Guang Yu Zhao; Yan Yan; Chun Zhou Zhao…

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An integrated hydrometeorological system was designed for the utilization of data from various sensors in the 3300 km2 Panama Canal Watershed for the purpose of producing ... forecasts. These forecasts are used b...

Konstantine P. Georgakakos; Jason A. Sperfslage

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

232

Power System Load Forecasting Based on EEMD and ANN  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to fully mine the characteristics of load data and improve the accuracy of power system load forecasting, a load forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode ... is proposed in this paper. Firstly,...

Wanlu Sun; Zhigang Liu; Wenfan Li

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS National Climatic Data Center.with Changing Boundaries." Use of GIS to Understand Socio-Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS Appendix A. Map Results Gallery

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

234

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar...

235

The Energy Demand Forecasting System of the National Energy Board  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the National Energy Board’s long term energy demand forecasting model in its present state of ... results of recent research at the NEB. Energy demand forecasts developed with the aid of this....

R. A. Preece; L. B. Harsanyi; H. M. Webster

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

Forecasting Energy Demand Using Fuzzy Seasonal Time Series  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Demand side energy management has become an important issue for energy management. In order to support energy planning and policy decisions forecasting the future demand is very important. Thus, forecasting the f...

?Irem Uçal Sar?; Ba¸sar Öztay¸si

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

2010-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

239

Sandia National Laboratories: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Partnership, Photovoltaic, Renewable Energy, Solar, Systems Analysis The book, Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource...

240

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data by Tammy G. Heppner and Carol L. French Overview Petroleum supply data collected by the Petroleum Division (PD) in the Office of Oil and Gas (OOG) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an improvement in the accuracy of the 2005 data from initial estimates, to interim values, to final values. These data were presented in a series of PD products: the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), This Week in Petroleum (TWIP), the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Weekly estimates in the WPSR and TWIP were the first values available. Figure FE1 illustrates that as reporting and review time passes from the weekly estimates to the interim monthly values to the final petroleum supply values, the EIA is able to produce more accurate petroleum supply data. For the monthly-from-weekly (MFW) data, respondents

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

Development and application of econometric demand and supply models for selected Chesapeake Bay seafood products  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Five models were developed to forecast future Chesapeake seafood product prices, harvest quantities, and resulting income. Annual econometric models are documented for oysters, hard and soft blue crabs, and hard and soft clams. To the degree that data permit, these models represent demand and supply at the retail, wholesale, and harvest levels. The resulting models have broad applications in environmental policy issues and regulatory analyses for the Chesapeake Bay. 37 references, 10 figures, 99 tables.

Nieves, L.A.; Moe, R.J.

1984-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Application of a Combination Forecasting Model in Logistics Parks' Demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistics parks’ demand is an important basis of establishing the development policy of logistics industry and logistics infrastructure for planning. In order to improve the forecast accuracy of logistics parks’ demand, a combination forecasting ... Keywords: Logistics parks' demand, combine, simulated annealing algorithm, grey forecast model, exponential smoothing method

Chen Qin; Qi Ming

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation

Boyer, Edmond

244

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast

245

Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

· advantage: no NWP data necessary ­ very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 ­ Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method

Heinemann, Detlev

246

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE -APRIL 2014  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor

de Lijser, Peter

247

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium

Stevenson, Paul

248

CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data in California and for climate zones within those areas. The staff California Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast

249

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models

Povinelli, Richard J.

250

Optimizing energy for a ‘green’ vaccine supply chain  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper describes an approach piloted in the Kasserine region of Tunisia to increase the energy efficiency of the distribution of vaccines and temperature sensitive drugs. The objectives of an approach, known as the ‘net zero energy’ (NZE) supply chain were demonstrated within the first year of operation. The existing distribution system was modified to store vaccines and medicines in the same buildings and to transport them according to pre-scheduled and optimized delivery circuits. Electric utility vehicles, dedicated to the integrated delivery of vaccines and medicines, improved the regularity and reliability of the supply chains. Solar energy, linked to the electricity grid at regional and district stores, supplied over 100% of consumption meeting all energy needs for storage, cooling and transportation. Significant benefits to the quality and costs of distribution were demonstrated. Supply trips were scheduled, integrated and reliable, energy consumption was reduced, the recurrent cost of electricity was eliminated and the release of carbon to the atmosphere was reduced. Although the initial capital cost of scaling up implementation of NZE remain high today, commercial forecasts predict cost reduction for solar energy and electric vehicles that may permit a step-wise implementation over the next 7–10 years. Efficiency in the use of energy and in the deployment of transport is already a critical component of distribution logistics in both private and public sectors of industrialized countries. The NZE approach has an intensified rationale in countries where energy costs threaten the maintenance of public health services in areas of low population density. In these countries where the mobility of health personnel and timely arrival of supplies is at risk, NZE has the potential to reduce energy costs and release recurrent budget to other needs of service delivery while also improving the supply chain.

John S. Lloyd; Steve McCarney; Ramzi Ouhichi; Patrick Lydon; Michel Zaffran

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Wind and Load Forecast Error Model for Multiple Geographically Distributed Forecasts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To generate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations, auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to simulate forecast error curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and present some experimental results by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics.

Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.

2010-11-02T23:59:59.000Z

252

Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An important determinant of our energy future is the rate at which energy conservation technologies, once developed, are put into use. At Synergic Resources Corporation, we have adapted and applied a methodology to forecast the use of conservation...

Lang, K.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

253

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach Bruce A-0406 Fax: (919) 962-0432 Email: skyler@unc.edu Abstract--Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terror of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target

Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

254

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive

Stevenson, Paul

255

Sunny outlook for space weather forecasters  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... For decades, companies have tailored public weather data for private customers from farmers to airlines. On Wednesday, a group of businesses said that they ... utilities and satellite operators. But Terry Onsager, a physicist at the SWPC, says that private forecasting firms are starting to realize that they can add value to these predictions. ...

Eric Hand

2012-04-27T23:59:59.000Z

256

Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006

257

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state

Howat, Ian M.

258

Customized forecasting tool improves reserves estimation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Unique producing characteristics of the Teapot sandstone formation, Powder River basin, Wyoming, necessitated the creation of individualized production forecasting methods for wells producing from this reservoir. The development and use of a set of production type curves and correlations for Teapot wells are described herein.

Mian, M.A.

1986-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

Storm-in-a-Box Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...But the WRF has no immediate...being tuned to local conditions...temperatures and winds with altitude...resulting WRF forecasts...captured the local sea-breeze winds better...spread the local operation of mesoscale...to be the WRF model now...

Richard A. Kerr

2004-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

260

FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Online short-term solar power forecasting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)

2009-10-15T23:59:59.000Z

262

Supplemental Gas Supplies  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

. . Supplemental Gas Supplies by State, 1996 (Million Cubic Feet) Table State Synthetic Natural Gas Propane- Air Refinery Gas Biomass Gas Other Total Alabama ...................... 0 18 0 0 0 18 Colorado...................... 0 344 0 0 a 6,443 6,787 Connecticut ................. 0 48 0 0 0 48 Delaware ..................... 0 1 0 0 0 1 Georgia........................ 0 94 0 0 0 94 Hawaii.......................... 2,761 0 0 0 0 2,761 Illinois .......................... 0 488 3,423 0 0 3,912 Indiana......................... 0 539 0 0 b 2,655 3,194 Iowa............................. 0 301 0 0 0 301 Kentucky...................... 0 45 0 0 0 45 Maine........................... 0 61 0 0 0 61 Maryland...................... 0 882 0 0 0 882 Massachusetts ............ 0 426 0 0 0 426 Michigan ...................... 0 0 0 0 c 21,848 21,848 Minnesota.................... 0 709 0 0 0 709 Missouri

263

Switching power supply  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

The invention is a repratable capacitor charging, switching power supply. A ferrite transformer steps up a dc input. The transformer primary is in a full bridge configuration utilizing power MOSFETs as the bridge switches. The transformer secondary is fed into a high voltage, full wave rectifier whose output is connected directly to the energy storage capacitor. The transformer is designed to provide adequate leakage inductance to limit capacitor current. The MOSFETs are switched to the variable frequency from 20 to 50 kHz to charge a capacitor from 0.6 kV. The peak current in a transformer primary and secondary is controlled by increasing the pulse width as the capacitor charges. A digital ripple counter counts pulses and after a preselected desired number is reached an up-counter is clocked.

Mihalka, A.M.

1984-06-05T23:59:59.000Z

264

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

265

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest.

Werth, D.; Garrett, A.

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

266

Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Metrology Laboratory  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Calibrators Frequency counters Resistors Capacitors Amplifiers Clamp-ons Transducers (watt, voltage, and current) Power supplies Current sources Oscilloscopes Function generators...

268

Weather satellites and the economic value of forecasts: evidence from the electric power industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather information routinely assists in managing resources more efficiently and reducing industrial operating costs. The electric energy industry in particular makes extensive use of weather information supplied by both government and commercial suppliers. Through direct purchases of weather data and information, and through participating in the increasing market for weather derivatives, this sector provides measurable indicators of the economic importance of weather information. Space weather in the form of magnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections from the sun creates geomagnetically induced currents that disturb the electric power grid, sometimes causing significant economic impacts on electric power distribution. This paper examines the use of space-derived weather information on the U.S. electric power industry. It also explores issues that may impair the most optimum use of the information and reviews the longer-term opportunities for employing weather data acquired from satellites in future commercial and government activity.

Henry R. Hertzfeld; Ray A. Williamson; Avery Sen

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets | Open Energy  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets ANL Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Name Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets Agency/Company /Organization Argonne National Laboratory Partner Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering of Porto (INESC Porto) in Portugal, Midwest Independent System Operator and Horizon Wind Energy LLC, funded by U.S. Department of Energy Sector Energy Focus Area Wind Topics Pathways analysis, Technology characterizations Resource Type Software/modeling tools Website http://www.dis.anl.gov/project References Argonne National Laboratory: Wind Power Forecasting and Electricity Markets[1] Abstract To improve wind power forecasting and its use in power system and electricity market operations Argonne National Laboratory has assembled a team of experts in wind power forecasting, electricity market modeling, wind farm development, and power system operations.

270

Petroleum Supply Annual, Volume 2  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Volume 2 - Final monthly statistics for the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. Volume 2 Tables All Tables All Tables Detailed Statistics Tables National...

271

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.

Luiz C.M. Miranda; C.A.S. Lima

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

Crude Oil Supply  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Crude Oil Supply Domestic Production (a) .......................................... 6.22 6.29 6.42 7.02 7.11 7.29 7.61 7.97 8.26 8.45 8.57 8.86 6.49 7.50 8.54 Alaska .................................................................. 0.58 0.53 0.44 0.55 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.52 0.51 0.47 0.42 0.49 0.53 0.51 0.47 Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) .................................... 1.34 1.19 1.18 1.36 1.30 1.22 1.27 1.29 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.45 1.27 1.27 1.38 Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ................................ 4.31 4.57 4.80 5.11 5.28 5.56 5.87 6.16 6.41 6.61 6.77 6.91 4.70 5.72 6.68 Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ......................................... 8.55 8.88 8.52 7.89 7.47 7.61 7.94 7.36 6.66 6.78 6.83 6.06 8.46 7.60 6.58 SPR Net Withdrawals ..............................................

273

Actinide separations conference  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contains the abstracts for 55 presentations given at the fourteenth annual Actinide Separations Conference. (JDL)

Not Available

1990-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Repetitive resonant railgun power supply  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A repetitive resonant railgun power supply provides energy for repetitively propelling projectiles from a pair of parallel rails. The supply comprises an energy storage capacitor, a storage inductor to form a resonant circuit with the energy storage capacitor and a magnetic switch to transfer energy between the resonant circuit and the pair of parallel rails for the propelling of projectiles.

Honig, E.M.; Nunnally, W.C.

1985-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

275

Basic Costs in Electricity Supply  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... ONE of the principal problems in the management of public electricity supply companies is how to reconcile the ... supply companies is how to reconcile the costs with the charges not only from year to year but also in their irregular secular ...

1941-07-12T23:59:59.000Z

276

WATER SUPPLY A Handbook on  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

WATER SUPPLY HANDBOOK A Handbook on Water Supply Planning and Resource Management Institute for Water Resources Water Resources Support Center U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 7701 Telegraph Road Studies Division December 1998 Revised IWR Report 96-PS-4 #12;U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources

US Army Corps of Engineers

277

OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

FRED FRED http://en.openei.org/community/group/fred Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in formulating policies and energy plans based on easy to use forecasting tools, visualizations, sankey diagrams, and open data. The platform will live on OpenEI and this community was established to initiate discussion around continuous development of this tool, integrating it with new datasets, and connecting with the community of users who will want to contribute data to the tool and use the tool for planning purposes. energy data + forecasting Fri, 22 Jun 2012 15:30:20 +0000 Dbrodt 34

278

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

158 158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-48158 May 2010 Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015 Lori Bird National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ed Holt Ed Holt & Associates, Inc. Jenny Sumner and Claire Kreycik National Renewable Energy Laboratory

279

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Highlights Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025. Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumptiion by Region, 1970-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025—slightly lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is projected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in

280

FORSITE: a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Geothermal Site Development Forecasting System (FORSITE) is a computer-based system being developed to assist DOE geothermal program managers in monitoring the progress of multiple geothermal electric exploration and construction projects. The system will combine conceptual development schedules with site-specific status data to predict a time-phased sequence of development likely to occur at specific geothermal sites. Forecasting includes estimation of industry costs and federal manpower requirements across sites on a year-by-year basis. The main advantage of the system, which relies on reporting of major, easily detectable industry activities, is its ability to use relatively sparse data to achieve a representation of status and future development.

Entingh, D.J.; Gerstein, R.E.; Kenkeremath, L.D.; Ko, S.M.

1981-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

2014-12-30T23:59:59.000Z

282

electricity supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

supply supply Dataset Summary Description The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) publishes a wide selection of data and statistics on energy power technologies from a variety of sources (e.g. EIA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory, EPRI and AWEA). In 2006, NREL published the 4th edition, presenting, among other things, data on the U.S. electricity supply. Source NREL Date Released March 05th, 2006 (8 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords electricity supply NREL Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon Electricity Supply (13 worksheets) (xls, 1.2 MiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment

283

Petroleum supply monthly, August 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This publication the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. Data presented are divided into Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

Not Available

1993-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Petroleum Supply Annual, Volume 1  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

1 1 With Data for 2012 | Release Date: September 27, 2013 | Next Release Date: August 28, 2014 Previous Issues Year: 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Go Re-release of the Petroleum Supply Annual with data for 2011 Volume 1 - Final annual data for the supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products. Volume 1 Tables All Tables All Tables Detailed Statistics Tables National Statistics 1 U.S. Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products PDF CSV 2 U.S. Daily Average Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products PDF CSV Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 3 PAD District 1 PDF CSV 4 Daily Average PAD District 1 PDF CSV

285

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data by Tammy G. Heppner and Matthew M. Breslin Overview For 2007, 66 petroleum supply data series were analyzed to determine how close the PSM values were to the final PSA values. For these series, 50 out of the 66 PSM values were within 1 percent of the PSA values in terms of mean absolute percent error as compared to 38 out of 66 in 2006. Sixty-two petroleum supply data series were analyzed to see how close the MFW estimates were to the final PSA values. For these 62 series, 22 MFW estimates were within 2 percent of the PSA values in terms of mean absolute percent error and, of those, 9 were within 1 percent, compared to 27 and 10, respectively, for 2006. Petroleum supply data collected by the Petroleum Division

286

Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecasting time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to selecting the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approaches provide the best basis for automated method selection, the Akaike information criteria having a slight edge over its information criteria counterparts.

Baki Billah; Maxwell L. King; Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey

2007-01-09T23:59:59.000Z

288

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

289

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

290

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical for making energy sources -- including wind and solar -- dependable and predictable. These forecasts also play an important role in reducing the cost of renewable energy by allowing electricity grid operators to make timely decisions on what reserve generation they need to operate their systems.

291

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Water supply and demand in an energy supply model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report describes a tool for water and energy-related policy analysis, the development of a water supply and demand sector in a linear programming model of energy supply in the United States. The model allows adjustments in the input mix and plant siting in response to water scarcity. Thus, on the demand side energy conversion facilities can substitute more costly dry cooling systems for conventional evaporative systems. On the supply side groundwater and water purchased from irrigators are available as more costly alternatives to unappropriated surface water. Water supply data is developed for 30 regions in 10 Western states. Preliminary results for a 1990 energy demand scenario suggest that, at this level of spatial analysis, water availability plays a minor role in plant siting. Future policy applications of the modeling system are discussed including the evaluation of alternative patterns of synthetic fuels development.

Abbey, D; Loose, V

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: EIA sees a tenuous supply/demand balance over the remainder of 2001 and into the beginning of 2002, as illustrated by the low OECD inventory levels. Global inventories remain low, and need to recover to more adequate levels in order to avoid continued price volatility. While we saw some stocking in April and May, typical third quarter stock builds may not occur. Even with Iraqi oil exports resuming in early July, OPEC was going to need to increase its oil production to account for demand increases over the 2nd half of the year to prevent stocks from falling further. However, they not only haven't agreed to increase production, but agreed to cut production quotas by 1 million barrels per day beginning on September 1! EIA's forecast of a continued low stock cushion implies we not only

294

Safeguards Education and Training: Short Term Supply vs. Demand  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Much has been written and discussed in the past several years about the effect of the aging nuclear workforce on the sustainability of the U.S. safeguards and security infrastructure. This paper discusses the 10-15 year supply and demand forecast for nuclear material control and accounting specialists. The demand side of the review includes control and accounting of the materials at U.S. DOE and NRC facilities, and the federal oversight of those MC&A programs. The cadre of experts referred to as 'MC&A Specialists' available to meet the demand goes beyond domestic MC&A to include international programs, regulatory and inspection support, and so on.

Mathews, Carrie E.; Crawford, Cary E.

2004-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

295

Multiple resonant railgun power supply  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A multiple repetitive resonant railgun power supply provides energy for repetitively propelling projectiles from a pair of parallel rails. A plurality of serially connected paired parallel rails are powered by similar power supplies. Each supply comprises an energy storage capacitor, a storage inductor to form a resonant circuit with the energy storage capacitor and a magnetic switch to transfer energy between the resonant circuit and the pair of parallel rails for the propelling of projectiles. The multiple serial operation permits relatively small energy components to deliver overall relatively large amounts of energy to the projectiles being propelled.

Honig, E.M.; Nunnally, W.C.

1985-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

296

Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Long Term World Oil Supply Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis) 07/28/2000 Click here to start Table of Contents Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis) Executive Summary Executive Summary (Continued) Executive Summary (Continued) Overview The Year of Peak Production..When will worldwide conventional oil production peak?... Lower 48 Crude Oil Reserves & Production 1945-2000 Texas Oil and Condensate Production, and Texas First Purchase Price (FPP), 1980-1999 Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery Different Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base Campbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050 Laherrere’s Oil Production Forecast, 1930-2150

297

Demand forecasting for aircraft engine aftermarket  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In 2006, Pratt and Whitney launched the Global Material Solutions business model aiming to supply spare parts to non-OEM engines with minimum 95% on-time delivery and fill-rate. Lacking essential technical knowledge of the ...

Ho, Kien K. (Kine Kit)

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Av:l.at:i.on Fuel Total Oil Demand 0:!.1 Demand w:t thoutthe ef feet of oil prices on energy demand and supply, \\veSince electric:! ty prices oil prices, the demand for will :

Sathaye, Jayant

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed Location Based Technologies has signed an agreement to integrate and market an Oak Ridge National Laboratory technology that provides...

300

Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter… (more)

Mauch, Brandon Keith

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast in Millions...

302

FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (SN CRAC) FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast In Millions...

303

Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis Integrating agricultural pest biocontrol into forecasts of energy biomass production T pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil erosion (Nash, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008). On the other

Gratton, Claudio

304

Membrane Separations Research  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MEMBRANE SEPARATIONS RESEARCH James R. Fair Chemical Engineering Department The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX 78712 ABSTRACT The use of membranes for separating gaseous and liquid mixtures has grown dramatically in the past 15... years. Applications have been dominated by light gas separations and water purification. During this pioneering period, equipment containing the membrane suIfaces has been developed to a point where failures are minimal and the membranes themselves...

Fair, J. R.

305

coal supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

coal supply coal supply Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 15, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts. The data is broken down into production, net imports, consumption by sector and price. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO coal coal supply disposition. prices EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices- Reference Case (xls, 91.7 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

306

energy supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

supply supply Dataset Summary Description OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics - ISBN 92-64-08356-1 - © OECD 2010. Available directly from the OECD Statistics website (beta version). Source OECD Date Released January 01st, 2010 (5 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords energy supply ISBN 92-64-08356-1 OECD renewable energy world Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon OECD Factbook 2010: Contribution of Renewables to Energy Supply (xls, 38.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Time Period 1971 - 2008 License License Other or unspecified, see optional comment below Comment the User can upload up to 1,500 words or 2,000 cells (equivalent to 4 tables or graphs) provided that suitable acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. The User must link to the OECD page where the uploaded material was taken from;

307

Total supply chain cost model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sourcing and outsourcing decisions have taken on increased importance within Teradyne to improve efficiency and competitiveness. This project delivered a conceptual framework and a software tool to analyze supply chain ...

Wu, Claudia

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

The 3He Supply Problem  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the main uses for 3He is in gas proportional counters for neutron detection. Radiation portal monitors deployed for homeland security and non-proliferation use such detectors. Other uses of 3He are for research detectors, commercial instruments, well logging detectors, dilution refrigerators, for targets or cooling in nuclear research, and for basic research in condensed matter physics. The US supply of 3He comes almost entirely from the decay of tritium used in nuclear weapons by the US and Russia. A few other countries contribute a small amount to the world’s 3He supply. Due to the large increase in use of 3He for homeland security, the supply has dwindled, and can no longer meet the demand. This white paper reviews the problems of supply, utilization, and alternatives.

Kouzes, Richard T.

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is hosting the Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop on February 3-4, 2015, in Golden, Colorado. The purpose of the workshop is to bring together a...

310

Protective supplied-breathing-air garment  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A breathing-air garment for isolating a wearer from hostile environments containing toxins or irritants is disclosed. The garment includes a suit and a separate head-protective enclosure or hood engaging a suit collar in sealing attachment. The hood and suit collar are cylindrically shaped and dimensioned to enable the wearer to withdraw his hands from the suit sleeves to perform manual tasks within the hood interior. Breathing air is supplied from an external air line with an air-delivery hose attached to the hood interior. The hose feeds air into an annular halo-like fiber-filled plenum having spaced discharge orifices attached to the hood top wall. A plurality of air exhaust/check valves located at the suit extremities cooperate with the hood air-delivery system to provide a cooling flow of circulating air from the hood throughout the suit interior. A suit entry seal provided on the suit sealed with an adhesive sealing flap.

Childers, E.L.; von Hortenau, E.F.

1982-05-28T23:59:59.000Z

311

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

312

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

313

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

314

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing, often used in sales forecasting for inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains appropriate under more general conditions, where the variance is allowed to grow or contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular, the problem of finding the predictive distribution of aggregate lead-time demand, for use in inventory control calculations, is considered using a bootstrap approach. A method for establishing order-up-to levels directly from the simulated predictive distribution is also explored.

Ralph D. Snyder; Anne B. Koehler; J.Keith Ord

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts during the National Science ...

Sharanya J. Majumdar; Ryan D. Torn

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Separation technologies: Marketing factors  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The chemical and petroleum industries consume approximately 5.8 quads per year of energy. Within these industries, 43% of the energy is used by separation processes to recover and purify products. With 40,000 distillation columns in operation, distillation is used to make 95% of all separations in these two industries. Although separations are identified which are amenable to advanced separation technologies (that make distillation more energy-efficient), they are not implemented because of commercial barriers. The focus of this work was on barriers which can by overcome by implementing advanced separation-related technologies. Barriers were screened and prioritized, and Return On Investment (ROI) was calculated for each project designed to overcome a high priority barrier. Economic analyses were based on specific separations such as ethylene-ethane, propylene-propane, ethyl benzene-styrene, and ethanol-water. These separations were selected because they consume significant amounts of energy for separation. Thus, conclusions are based on a limited number of case studies; an approach necessary to complete this project within a reasonable time frame. Recommended projects are discussed and summarized.

Humphrey, J.L.; Seibert, A.F.; Goodpastor, C.V.

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Internet-Enabled Supply ChainsInternet-Enabled Supply Chains Quan Z. Sheng, University of Adelaide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

89 Internet-Enabled Supply ChainsInternet-Enabled Supply Chains Quan Z. Sheng, University of the Internet-enabled Supply Chain 89 Key Supply Chain Processes and the Internet 89 Impacts of Internet-Enabled Supply Chains 92 Enabling Technologies for Internet-Enabled Supply Chain Management 92 Internet-based EDI

Sheng, Michael

318

Assessing Reliability In Hydrogen Supply Pathways  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

liquefied natural gas (LNG) at a large, central steamthe established, global LNG infrastructure provided moreenergy supply over the vast LNG network. The global supply

McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

NREL: Jobs and Economic Competitiveness - Supply Constraints...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Supply Constraints Analysis Some of the materials used in solar PV modules, such as tellurium and indium, are rare materials in limited supply. Solar PV technologies have grown...

320

Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A separation membrane is described which is useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C{sub 2+} hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula shown in the accompanying diagram, wherein R{sub 1} is chosen from the group consisting of C{sub 1}-C{sub 4} alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R{sub 2} is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) [PMP]. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations. 4 figs.

Pinnau, I.; Morisato, Atsushi

1998-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Substituted polyacetylene separation membrane  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A separation membrane useful for gas separation, particularly separation of C.sub.2+ hydrocarbons from natural gas. The invention encompasses the membrane itself, methods of making it and processes for using it. The membrane comprises a polymer having repeating units of a hydrocarbon-based, disubstituted polyacetylene, having the general formula: ##STR1## wherein R.sub.1 is chosen from the group consisting of C.sub.1 -C.sub.4 alkyl and phenyl, and wherein R.sub.2 is chosen from the group consisting of hydrogen and phenyl. In the most preferred embodiment, the membrane comprises poly(4-methyl-2-pentyne) ›PMP!. The membrane exhibits good chemical resistance and has super-glassy properties with regard to separating certain large, condensable permeant species from smaller, less-condensable permeant species. The membranes may also be useful in other fluid separations.

Pinnau, Ingo (Palo Alto, CA); Morisato, Atsushi (Tokyo, JP)

1998-01-13T23:59:59.000Z

322

Separators for flywheel rotors  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors. 10 figs.

Bender, D.A.; Kuklo, T.C.

1998-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

323

Separators for flywheel rotors  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A separator forms a connection between the rotors of a concentric rotor assembly. This separator allows for the relatively free expansion of outer rotors away from inner rotors while providing a connection between the rotors that is strong enough to prevent disassembly. The rotor assembly includes at least two rotors referred to as inner and outer flywheel rings or rotors. This combination of inner flywheel ring, separator, and outer flywheel ring may be nested to include an arbitrary number of concentric rings. The separator may be a segmented or continuous ring that abuts the ends of the inner rotor and the inner bore of the outer rotor. It is supported against centrifugal loads by the outer rotor and is affixed to the outer rotor. The separator is allowed to slide with respect to the inner rotor. It is made of a material that has a modulus of elasticity that is lower than that of the rotors.

Bender, Donald A. (Dublin, CA); Kuklo, Thomas C. (Oakdale, CA)

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Exponential smoothing models represent an important prediction tool both in business and in macroeconomics. This paper provides the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the “multiple source of error” framework. The random coefficient state-space representation allows for switching between simple exponential smoothing and local linear trend. Therefore it enables controlling, in a flexible manner, the random changing dynamic behavior of the time series. The paper establishes the algebraic mapping between the state-space parameters and the implied reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that the parametric mapping allows overcoming the difficulties that are likely to emerge in estimating directly the random coefficient state-space model. Finally, it presents an empirical application comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-à-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the exponential smoothing class. Using time series relative to wholesalers inventories in the USA, the out-of-sample results show that the reduced form of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model tends to be superior to its competitors.

Giacomo Sbrana; Andrea Silvestrini

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Expert Panel: Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes March 1999 Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes September 25-26, 1998 Arlington, Virginia The Expert Panel ............................................................................................. Page 1 Charge To The Expert Panel........................................................................... Page 2 Executive Summary......................................................................................... Page 3 Introduction ...................................................................................................... Page 4 Rationale.......................................................................................................... Page 6 Economic Analysis...........................................................................................

327

A robust automatic phase-adjustment method for financial forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this work we present the robust automatic phase-adjustment (RAA) method to overcome the random walk dilemma for financial time series forecasting. It consists of a hybrid model composed of a qubit multilayer perceptron (QuMLP) with a quantum-inspired ... Keywords: Financial forecasting, Hybrid models, Quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, Qubit multilayer perceptron, Random walk dilemma

Ricardo de A. Araújo

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Developing electricity forecast web tool for Kosovo market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper is presented a web tool for electricity forecast for Kosovo market for the upcoming ten years. The input data i.e. electricity generation capacities, demand and consume are taken from the document "Kosovo Energy Strategy 2009-2018" compiled ... Keywords: .NET, database, electricity forecast, internet, simulation, web

Blerim Rexha; Arben Ahmeti; Lule Ahmedi; Vjollca Komoni

2011-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size. On the other hand if forecasted high production events do not occur, the cost of de- optimisation Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France andrea.michiorri@mines-paristech.fr Abstract

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

330

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

331

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime

Washington at Seattle, University of

332

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. R.Lawrence@ecmwf.int #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period

Hansens, Jim

333

Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts… (more)

Mavromatis, Peter George

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

E-Print Network 3.0 - africa conditional forecasts Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: africa conditional forecasts Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST...

335

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.

2014-10-27T23:59:59.000Z

336

Petroleum supply monthly, September 1991  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administrations for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics. 65 tabs.

Not Available

1991-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

337

Petroleum supply monthly, October 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

Not Available

1993-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

338

Petroleum Supply Monthly, August 1990  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of three publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other two publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) district movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections (1) the Summary Statistics and (2) the Detailed Statistics.

Not Available

1990-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

339

Oxygen supply for oxyfuel CO2 capture  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the results of a study to develop Air Products’ air separation unit (ASU) offerings for oxyfuel coal CO2 capture projects. A scalable “reference plant” concept is described to match particular sizes of power generation equipment, taking into account factors such as safety, reliability, operating flexibility, efficiency, and low capital cost. We describe the selection of a process cycle to exploit the low purity requirements, as well as the options for compression machinery and drivers as the scale of the plant increases and the sizes of referenced equipment limit the possibilities. We also explore integration with other elements of the system, such as preheating condensate or heating and expanding pressurised nitrogen. In addition, we consider how the ASU affects the flexibility of the oxyfuel system and discuss how its power consumption can be reduced during periods of high power demand. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of different execution strategies for air separation unit projects are discussed, as well as alternative commercial models for the supply of oxygen.

Paul Higginbotham; Vince White; Kevin Fogash; Galip Guvelioglu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Long Term World Oil Supply  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Notes: The following pages summarize a recent EIA presentation on estimates of the world conventional oil resource base and the year when production from it will peak and then begin to decline. A version of this presentation was given by former EIA Administrator Jay Hakes to the April 18, 2000 meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in New Orleans, Louisiana. Specific information about this presentation may be obtained from John Wood (john.wood@eia.doe.gov), Gary Long (gary.long@eia.doe.gov) or David Morehouse (david.morehouse@eia.doe.gov). Long Term World Oil Supply http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/sld001.htm [8/10/2000 4:56:23 PM] Slide 2 of 20 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/sld002.htm [8/10/2000 4:56:24 PM]

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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341

oil supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

oil supply oil supply Dataset Summary Description CIA: World Factbook assessment of proved reserves of crude oil in barrels (bbl). Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with a high degree of confidence to be commercially recoverable from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions. Estimated as of January 1st, 2010. Source CIA Date Released January 01st, 2010 (4 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords crude oil energy energy data international oil oil supply Data text/csv icon 2010 Proved Oil Reserves (csv, 4.6 KiB) text/plain icon Original Text Format (txt, 6.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency

342

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

in in the Office of Oil and Gas (OOG) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an improvement in the accuracy of the 2006 data from initial estimates, to interim values, to final values. These data were presented in a series of PD products: the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), This Week in Petroleum (TWIP), the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Weekly estimates in the WPSR and TWIP were the first values available. Figure FE1 illustrates that just as there was an improvement in gas mileage over time, there was an improvement in petroleum supply data accuracy with increasing review time. For the monthly-from-weekly (MFW) data, respondents have the shortest reporting time, analysts have the shortest review time, and the data are least accurate. For the PSM data, respondents have a longer reporting time than the weekly, analysts have

343

Petroleum supply monthly, August 1994  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Data presented in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

Not Available

1994-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

344

USABC Battery Separator Development  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Separator Development P.I. - Ron Smith Presenter - Kristoffer Stokes, Ph.D. Celgard, LLC Project ID ES007 May 10, 2011 This presentation does not contain any proprietary,...

345

Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is hosting the Advanced Supply System Validation Workshop on February 3-4, 2015, in Golden, Colorado. The purpose of the workshop is to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders to examine, discuss, and validate analysis assumptions used to move beyond current feedstock supply systems designed to support the agriculture and forestry industries. Participants will discuss assumptions relating to volume and transportation logistics, biomass quality, and operational risks. The outcome of the workshop will include a report summarizing the expert opinions shared during the workshop.

346

Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

systems absorb large amounts of hydroelectric power. Duringthat snow melts and hydroelectric power supply increases and

Papavasiliou, Anthony

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

347

successfully demonstrated the separation  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

successfully demonstrated the separation and capture of 90 percent successfully demonstrated the separation and capture of 90 percent of the c arbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from a pulve rized coal plant. In t he ARRA-funded project, Membrane Technology and Research Inc. (MTR) and its partners tested the Polaris(tm) membrane system, which uses a CO 2 -selective polymeric membrane material and module to capture CO 2 from a plant's flue gas. Since the Polaris(tm) membranes

348

Hydrogen separation process  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for separating a hydrogen-rich product stream from a feed stream comprising hydrogen and at least one carbon-containing gas, comprising feeding the feed stream, at an inlet pressure greater than atmospheric pressure and a temperature greater than 200.degree. C., to an integrated water gas shift/hydrogen separation membrane system wherein the hydrogen separation membrane system comprises a membrane that is selectively permeable to hydrogen, and producing a hydrogen-rich permeate product stream on the permeate side of the membrane and a carbon dioxide-rich product raffinate stream on the raffinate side of the membrane. A method for pretreating a membrane, comprising: heating the membrane to a desired operating temperature and desired feed pressure in a flow of inert gas for a sufficient time to cause the membrane to mechanically deform; decreasing the feed pressure to approximately ambient pressure; and optionally, flowing an oxidizing agent across the membrane before, during, or after deformation of the membrane. A method of supporting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising selecting a hydrogen separation membrane system comprising one or more catalyst outer layers deposited on a hydrogen transport membrane layer and sealing the hydrogen separation membrane system to a porous support.

Mundschau, Michael (Longmont, CO); Xie, Xiaobing (Foster City, CA); Evenson, IV, Carl (Lafayette, CO); Grimmer, Paul (Longmont, CO); Wright, Harold (Longmont, CO)

2011-05-24T23:59:59.000Z

349

Sustainable Supply Chain | Data.gov  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Sustainable Supply Chain Sustainable Supply Chain Sustainable Supply Chains Submissions Let's Talk About Sustainable Supply Chain Welcome to the Sustainable Supply Chain Community of Practice Bringing together government, industry, associations, non-profits and academic institutions to achieve more sustainable supply chains. Sustainable Supply Chain - New Updates New Updates View More Be a Champion Be a champion The Sustainable Supply Chain Community of Practice seeks champions from industry, academia and non-profits to lead each of the community market sectors. Do you know or are you a member of a leading edge organization that is implementing sustainable supply chain practices within one of the seven current community market sectors? If yes, nominate the organization as a Champion. Sustainable supply chain practices lead to cost savings,

350

Local arc discharge mechanism and requirements of power supply in micro-arc oxidation of magnesium alloy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To study the requirements of the power supply in micro-arc oxidation (MAO) of magnesium alloy, many experiments ... . Based on the experimental results and electric arc theory, the separate local arc discharge me...

Ming Chen; Yuezhou Ma; Yuan Hao

2010-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper the analysis and forecasting of wind velocities in Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico is presented. Measurements were made by the Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas (IIE) during two years, from 2004 to 2005. This location exemplifies the wind energy generation potential in the Caribbean coast of Mexico that could be employed in the hotel industry in the next decade. The wind speed and wind direction were measured at 10 m above ground level. Sensors with high accuracy and a low starting threshold were used. The wind velocity was recorded using a data acquisition system supplied by a 10 W photovoltaic panel. The wind speed values were measured with a frequency of 1 Hz and the average wind speed was recorded considering regular intervals of 10 min. First a statistical analysis of the time series was made in the first part of the paper through conventional and robust measures. Also the forecasting of the last day of measurements was made utilizing the single exponential smoothing method (SES). The results showed a very good accuracy of the data with this technique for an ? value of 0.9. Finally the SES method was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) method showing the former better results.

E. Cadenas; O.A. Jaramillo; W. Rivera

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

Ross, M.H. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (US). Dept. of Physics; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

1993-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

353

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.

Yair Orbach; Gila E. Fruchter

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Electricity Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period. The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use. Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from 14,275 billion

355

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Contacts Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). General questions concerning the contents of the report should be referred to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Specific questions about the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following analysts: World Energy and Economic Outlook Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041) Macroeconomic Assumptions Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294) Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815) Commercial Energy Use Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

356

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast. Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center on 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet). Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data Figure 36. Increase in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country, 2002-2025. Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800. Figure Data

357

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country. One way of looking at the future of world energy markets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the end-use sector level. With the exception of the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, and political, social, and demographic factors. This chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by end-use sector.

358

Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow smoothing parameters to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. This paper presents a new adaptive method for predicting the volatility in financial returns. It enables the smoothing parameter to vary as a logistic function of user-specified variables. The approach is analogous to that used to model time-varying parameters in smooth transition generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. These non-linear models allow the dynamics of the conditional variance model to be influenced by the sign and size of past shocks. These factors can also be used as transition variables in the new smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES) approach. Parameters are estimated for the method by minimising the sum of squared deviations between realised and forecast volatility. Using stock index data, the new method gave encouraging results when compared to fixed parameter exponential smoothing and a variety of GARCH models.

James W. Taylor

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

359

Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

360

Document Supply Services Quick Guide  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, phrase, ISBN/ISSN in the Search Term field (other options are available in the dropdown menu). Note1 Document Supply Services Quick Guide The DSS Portal makes requesting easy! Search for your item and password. If you are having difficulty please read the login help on the main DSS webpage. 2. Enter a word

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

362

Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.

Jianzhou Wang; Yao Dong; Jie Wu; Ren Mu; He Jiang

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

363

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

364

Hydrogen separation membranes annual report for FY 2010.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The objective of this work is to develop dense ceramic membranes for separating hydrogen from other gaseous components in a nongalvanic mode, i.e., without using an external power supply or electrical circuitry. The goal of this project is to develop dense hydrogen transport membranes (HTMs) that nongalvanically (i.e., without electrodes or external power supply) separate hydrogen from gas mixtures at commercially significant fluxes under industrially relevant operating conditions. These membranes will be used to separate hydrogen from gas mixtures such as the product streams from coal gasification, methane partial oxidation, and water-gas shift reactions. Potential ancillary uses of HTMs include dehydrogenation and olefin production, as well as hydrogen recovery in petroleum refineries and ammonia synthesis plants, the largest current users of deliberately produced hydrogen. This report describes the results from the development and testing of HTM materials during FY 2010.

Balachandran, U.; Dorris, S. E; Emerson, J. E.; Lee, T. H.; Lu, Y.; Park, C. Y.; Picciolo, J. J. (Energy Systems)

2011-03-14T23:59:59.000Z

365

Organic Separation Test Results  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Separable organics have been defined as “those organic compounds of very limited solubility in the bulk waste and that can form a separate liquid phase or layer” (Smalley and Nguyen 2013), and result from three main solvent extraction processes: U Plant Uranium Recovery Process, B Plant Waste Fractionation Process, and Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Process. The primary organic solvents associated with tank solids are TBP, D2EHPA, and NPH. There is concern that, while this organic material is bound to the sludge particles as it is stored in the tanks, waste feed delivery activities, specifically transfer pump and mixer pump operations, could cause the organics to form a separated layer in the tank farms feed tank. Therefore, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) is experimentally evaluating the potential of organic solvents separating from the tank solids (sludge) during waste feed delivery activities, specifically the waste mixing and transfer processes. Given the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) waste acceptance criteria per the Waste Feed Acceptance Criteria document (24590-WTP-RPT-MGT-11-014) that there is to be “no visible layer” of separable organics in the waste feed, this would result in the batch being unacceptable to transfer to WTP. This study is of particular importance to WRPS because of these WTP requirements.

Russell, Renee L.; Rinehart, Donald E.; Peterson, Reid A.

2014-09-22T23:59:59.000Z

366

Long Term Supply Agreements And Their Role in the Wood Procurement and Supply  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Long Term Supply Agreements And Their Role in the Wood Procurement and Supply System #12;Page 2 Agenda · Introduction · Traditional and Current Wood Procurement Systems. · Structure and Characteristics of the Wood Supply Chain. · Long Term Supply Agreements · Integrating Supply Agreements into an overall

367

Design and operating experience of a 40 MW, highly-stabilized power supply  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Four 10 MW, highly-stabilized power supply modules have been installed at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory in Tallahassee, FL, to energize water-cooled, resistive, high-field research magnets. The power supply modules achieve a long term current stability if 10 ppM over a 12 h period with a short term ripple and noise variation of <10 ppM over a time period of one cycle. The power supply modules can operate independently, feeding four separate magnets, or two, three or four modules can operate in parallel. Each power supply module consists of a 12.5 kV vacuum circuit breaker, two three-winding, step-down transformers, a 24-pulse rectifier with interphase reactors, and a passive and an active filter. Two different transformer tap settings allow rated dc supply output voltages of 400 and 500 V. The rated current of a supply module is 17 kA and each supply module has a one-hour overload capability of 20 kA. The isolated output terminals of each power supply module are connected to a reversing switch. An extensive high-current bus system allows the modules to be connected to 16 magnet cells. This paper presents the detailed design of the power supply components. Various test results taken during the commissioning phase with a 10 MW resistive load and results taken with the research magnets are shown. The effects of the modules on the electrical supply system and the operational behavior of the power factor correction/harmonic filters are described. Included also are results of a power supply module feeding a superconducting magnet during quench propagation tests. Problems with the power supply design and solutions are presented. Some suggestions on how to improve the performance of these supplies are outlined.

Boenig, H.J. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Ferner, J.A. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Nationa High Magnetic Field Laboratory; Bogdan, F.; Morris, G.C. [ABB Industrial Systems, New Berlin, WI (United States); Rumrill, R.S. [Alpha Scientific Electronics Inc., Hayward, CA (United States)

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

368

Measuring the forecasting accuracy of models: evidence from industrialised countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper uses the approach suggested by Akrigay (1989), Tse and Tung (1992) and Dimson and Marsh (1990) to examine the forecasting accuracy of stock price index models for industrialised markets. The focus of this paper is to compare the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of three models, that is, the Random Walk model, the Single Exponential Smoothing model and the Conditional Heteroskedastic model with the MAPE of the benchmark Naive Forecast 1 case. We do not evidence that a single model to provide better forecasting accuracy results compared to other models.

Athanasios Koulakiotis; Apostolos Dasilas

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

369

Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting

Marquez, Ricardo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

370

18 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 201314 Hazards, warnings and forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and numerical prediction models. #12;19Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2013­14 2 Performance Performance programs: · Weather forecasting services; · Flood forecasting and warning services; · Hazard prediction, Warnings and Forecasts portfolio provides a range of forecast and warning services covering weather, ocean

Greenslade, Diana

371

Separators for electrochemical cells  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Provided are separators for use in an electrochemical cell comprising (a) an inorganic oxide and (b) an organic polymer, wherein the inorganic oxide comprises organic substituents. Preferably, the inorganic oxide comprises an hydrated aluminum oxide of the formula Al.sub.2O.sub.3.xH.sub.2O, wherein x is less than 1.0, and wherein the hydrated aluminum oxide comprises organic substituents, preferably comprising a reaction product of a multifunctional monomer and/or organic carbonate with an aluminum oxide, such as pseudo-boehmite and an aluminum oxide. Also provided are electrochemical cells comprising such separators.

Carlson, Steven Allen; Anakor, Ifenna Kingsley

2014-11-11T23:59:59.000Z

372

Developing sustainable food supply chains  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...unavailable, and oil palm estate and cooperative schemes...value from (more) sustainable production, especially...being developed by the Sustainable Agriculture Initiative...achieve separately (Sustainable Food Laboratory 2005...businesses focus on making a real difference and often...

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

373

Aerosols for Concentrating Solar Electricity Production Forecasts: Requirement Quantification and ECMWF/MACC Aerosol Forecast Assessment  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The potential for transferring a larger share of our energy supply toward renewable energy is a widely discussed goal in society, economics, environment, and climate-related programs. For a larger share of electricity to come from fluctuating solar and ...

Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; Armel Oumbe; Angela Benedetti; Jean-Jacques Morcrette

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Petroluem Supply Monthly, May 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics.

Not Available

1993-06-04T23:59:59.000Z

375

Petroleum Supply Monthly, July 1990  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major US geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in Primary Supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.

Not Available

1990-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

376

Water supply and sludge metals  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ultimate sludge disposal is one of the major tasks facing wastewater treatment facilities today. Where adequate farmland exists in proximity to the treatment facility and where sludge characteristics are suitable, land application is often the most economical method. In some cases, however, metal concentrations in the sludge either limit the site life or the application rate to the point where land application is not economical. When metals are above regulatory limits, land application may become impossible. The origin of the metals has largely been credited to industrial users and stormwater runoff and have, in fact, often represented significant sources of metals. Another potentially significant source of metals that has been frequently overlooked is the water supply system (including the distribution and home piping systems). Data from some treatment facilities suggest that the water supply system is the major source of metals and is the reason that sewage sludge metal levels are above allowable land application limits.

Brown, W.E. (Wright-Pierce Engineers, Topsham, ME (USA))

1988-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

377

High voltage DC power supply  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively. 7 figs.

Droege, T.F.

1989-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

378

High voltage DC power supply  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A high voltage DC power supply having a first series resistor at the output for limiting current in the event of a short-circuited output, a second series resistor for sensing the magnitude of output current, and a voltage divider circuit for providing a source of feedback voltage for use in voltage regulation is disclosed. The voltage divider circuit is coupled to the second series resistor so as to compensate the feedback voltage for a voltage drop across the first series resistor. The power supply also includes a pulse-width modulated control circuit, having dual clock signals, which is responsive to both the feedback voltage and a command voltage, and also includes voltage and current measuring circuits responsive to the feedback voltage and the voltage developed across the second series resistor respectively.

Droege, Thomas F. (Batavia, IL)

1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

379

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) | Open  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Jump to: navigation, search LEDSGP green logo.png FIND MORE DIA TOOLS This tool is part of the Development Impacts Assessment (DIA) Toolkit from the LEDS Global Partnership. Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Agency/Company /Organization: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank Sector: Energy Focus Area: Non-renewable Energy Topics: Baseline projection, Co-benefits assessment, GHG inventory Resource Type: Software/modeling tools User Interface: Spreadsheet Complexity/Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Cost: Free Equivalent URI: www.esmap.org/esmap/EFFECT Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT) Screenshot

380

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasting Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels MICHAEL YE, ∗ JOHN ZYREN, ∗∗ AND JOANNE SHORE ∗∗ Abstract This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermedi- ate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigat- ing the impacts of changes on price, should inventories,

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Adaptive sampling and forecasting with mobile sensor networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses planning of mobile sensor networks to extract the best information possible out of the environment to improve the (ensemble) forecast at some verification region in the future. To define the information ...

Choi, Han-Lim

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

382

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Seasonal Prediction · POAMA · Issues for future Outline #12;Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Major source Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program El Nino Mean State · Easterlies westward surface current upwelling

Lim, Eun-pa

383

Forecasting Volatility in Stock Market Using GARCH Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting volatility has held the attention of academics and practitioners all over the world. The objective for this master's thesis is to predict the volatility in stock market by using generalized autoregressive ...

Yang, Xiaorong

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

384

Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponential smoothing, while the within-year cycle is modelled using covariates, specifically two harmonic explanatory variables. Calendar effects, such as national and local holidays and vacation periods, are also introduced using covariates. [Received 28 September 2010; Revised 6 March 2011, 2 October 2011; Accepted 16 October 2011

José D. Bermúdez

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this paper we analyze the importance of initial conditions in exponential smoothing models on forecast errors and prediction intervals. We work with certain exponential smoothing models, namely Holt’s additive...

E. Vercher; A. Corberán-Vallet; J. V. Segura; J. D. Bermúdez

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

386

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Mohammad Anwar Rahman; Bhaba R. Sarker

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

387

Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

ReviewVerify Strategic Skills NeedsForecastsFuture Mission Shifts Annual Lab Plan (1-10 yrs) Fermilab Strategic Agenda (2-5 yrs) Sector program Execution Plans (1-3...

388

A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical cyclones affecting the ...

Matthew J. Onderlinde; Henry E. Fuelberg

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009 ANL/DIS-10-1 Decision and Information Sciences about Argonne and its pioneering science and technology programs, see www.anl.gov. #12;Wind Power

Kemner, Ken

390

2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report James L. Franklin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

storms 17 4. Genesis Forecasts 17 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks 18 a. Atlantic Summary 18 statistical models, provided the best intensity guidance at each time period. The 2007 season marked the first

391

Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

NONE

1995-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

392

FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

......................................................................... 11 3. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program Impacts................................... 13 4. Demand Sylvia Bender Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Scott W. Matthews Chief Deputy Director B.B. Blevins Forecast Methods and Models ....................................................... 14 5. Demand-Side

393

Information-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the evaluation of probabilistic ...

Bodo Ahrens; André Walser

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

395

Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on ...

Pawel Pytlak; Petr Musilek; Edward Lozowski; Dan Arnold

2010-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill ...

T. Jung; M. J. Miller; T. N. Palmer

2010-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Application of an Improved SVM Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is used to forecast wind in Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind power system without aerodromometer. The ... Validation (CV) method. Finally, 3.6MW DFIG w...

Huaqiang Zhang; Xinsheng Wang; Yinxiao Wu

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Research on Development Trends of Power Load Forecasting Methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In practical problem, number of samples is often limited, for complex issues such as power load forecasting, generally available historical data and information of impact factor are very ... support vector mechan...

Litong Dong; Jun Xu; Haibo Liu; Ying Guo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Ensembles provide an opportunity to greatly improve short-term prediction of local weather hazards, yet generating reliable predictions remain a significant challenge. In particular, convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems (CPEFSs) have ...

Glen S. Romine; Craig S. Schwartz; Judith Berner; Kathryn R. Fossell; Chris Snyder; Jeff L. Anderson; Morris L. Weisman

2014-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Weather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2 Integrate's Flow of ControlWeather Research and Forecasting Model 2.2 Documentation: A Step-by-step guide of a Model Run .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 The Integrate Subroutine

Sadjadi, S. Masoud

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

2014-07-07T23:59:59.000Z

402

Wind Speed Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural-Evolutive Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good ...

Juan J. Flores; Roberto Loaeza; Héctor Rodríguez; Erasmo Cadenas

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

403

Hydrogen isotope separation  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A system of four cryogenic fractional distillation columns interlinked with two equilibrators for separating a DT and hydrogen feed stream into four product streams, consisting of a stream of high purity D.sub.2, DT, T.sub.2, and a tritium-free stream of HD for waste disposal.

Bartlit, John R. (Los Alamos, NM); Denton, William H. (Abingdon, GB3); Sherman, Robert H. (Los Alamos, NM)

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

404

Emergency Food and Water Supplies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

E-11 5-99 Emergency Food and Water Supplies Peggy Van Laanen* Cleaning and Sanitizing Equipment After Any Disaster Emergency Food Preparation Equipment Needs Assembling an Emergency... sealed, airtight metal lids, are safe to use after being thoroughly cleaned and sanitized. All cans, free of rust or dents, must be washed and sanitized before they are opened. Wash containers in a detergent solution using a scrub brush. Rinse...

Van Laanen, Peggy

1999-05-14T23:59:59.000Z

405

Dual use power supply development  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Size weight efficiency and reliability define space power systems. Then years ago NASA re?emphasized that missions such as Space Station needed cost effective critical technologies one being power conversion. Thus NASA began to emphasize ‘‘dual?use’’ technology through its center for Commercial Development of Space (mid 1980s). This CCDS program funded research and development efforts needed for future space missions as well as terrestrial applications for commercial markets. Maxwell and Auburn University (Space Power Institute) jointly developed reliable power systems for manned space projects as well as commercial applications of high power high voltage switchmode power supplies. These serve the medical scientific and industrial markets (lasers accelerators and intense light sources). These applications required improvements in power density efficiency regulation reliability and cost effectiveness to be successful. One of NASA’s first programs at Auburn and Maxwell was a high frequency series resonant power converter optimized for commercial applications. It also meets the needs of space missions (additional space flight qualification is needed). This power converter topology demonstrates dual?use technology for power density power?to?weight regulation reliability and cost effectiveness. All goals were exceeded for both space and terrestrial applications. This was the first product of NASA’s CCDS program producing a family of high voltage capacitor charging power supplies. Maxwell’s CCDS capacitor power supplies are achieving greater acceptance demonstrating the value of the CCDS program.

Alan C. Kolb; Bryan E. Strickland

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

406

A model for short term electric load forecasting  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE, III Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas ASM University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Electrical Engineering A MODEL FOR SHORT TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING A Thesis by JOHN ROBERT TIGUE& III Approved as to style and content by: (Chairman of Committee) (Head Depart t) (Member) ;(Me r (Member) (Member) May 1975 ABSTRACT...

Tigue, John Robert

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

407

Radiation fog forecasting using a 1-dimensional model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing... measuring site (Molly Caren), the soil moisture measuring site (Wilmington), and (b) location of the forecast site (Ohio River Basin near Cincinnati including Lunken airport) . . 23 3 An example of a COBEL configuration file for 25 August 1996, showing...

Peyraud, Lionel

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

408

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

409

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26T23:59:59.000Z

410

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.

B. Kamranzad; A. Etemad-Shahidi; M.H. Kazeminezhad

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Petroleum Supply Annual 1997, Volume 1  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7, Volume 1 7, Volume 1 Entire . The entire report as a single file. PDF 1.0MB . . Front Matter . Cover Page, Contacts, Preface, and Table of Contents Page PDF . . Summary Statistics . Summary Statistics Tables S1 Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Overview, 1981-Present PDF S2 Crude Oil Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S3 Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports, 1981-Present PDF S4 Finished Motor Gasoline Supply and Disposition PDF S5 Distillate Fuel Oil Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S6 Residual Fuel Oil Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S7 Jet Fuel Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S8 Propane/Propylene Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S9 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF S10 Other Petroleum Products Supply and Disposition, 1981-Present PDF

412

Supply Chain Management Faculty Brian Fugate  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

relationships, strategy and sustainability in the supply chain, and she won the College of Business Excellence involvement in new product development, and sustainability practices in supply chain management. He has

413

Section B: Supplies, Services and Costs  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

SECTION B SUPPLIES AND SERVICES AND PRICECOSTS Request for Proposal DE-RP36-07GO97036 PART I SECTION B SUPPLIES AND SERVICES AND PRICECOSTS TABLE OF CONTENTS B.1 Service Being...

414

Petroleum Supply Annual 2005, Volume 1  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Tables National Statistics 1 U.S. Supply, Disposition, and Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products PDF CSV XLS 2 U.S. Daily Average Supply and Disposition of...

415

An integrative framework for architecting supply chains  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis explores the limitations of classic models of supply chain management, and proposes a new view based on the concept of value-driven supply chains, and a method of analysis and design based on the concepts of ...

Cela Díaz, Fernando

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

416

High Energy Demand and Supply Scenario  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

An adequate energy supply system is a key issue in ... industrialization that will call for a significantly larger energy supply. Sustaining economic growth in the industrialized ... will add considerably to the ...

H.-H. Rogner; W. Sassin

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the Department of Energy's Office of Industrial Technologies, EIA extracted energy use infonnation from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) - 2000 (8) for each of the seven # The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute...-6, 2000 NEMS The NEMS industrial module is the official forecasting model for EIA and thus the Department of Energy. For this reason, the energy prices and output forecasts used to drive the ITEMS model were taken from EIA's AEO 2000. Understanding...

Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T

418

Advanced Separation Consortium  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Center for Advanced Separation Technologies (CAST) was formed in 2001 under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy to conduct fundamental research in advanced separation and to develop technologies that can be used to produce coal and minerals in an efficient and environmentally acceptable manner. The CAST consortium consists of seven universities - Virginia Tech, West Virginia University, University of Kentucky, Montana Tech, University of Utah, University of Nevada-Reno, and New Mexico Tech. The consortium brings together a broad range of expertise to solve problems facing the US coal industry and the mining sector in general. At present, a total of 60 research projects are under way. The article outlines some of these, on topics including innovative dewatering technologies, removal of mercury and other impurities, and modelling of the flotation process. 1 photo.

NONE

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Heat Supply Who What Where and -Why  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

heat and power plants (CHP) and other heat technologies ...................................10 2Heat Supply in Denmark Who What Where and - Why #12;Title: Heat Supply in Denmark - Who What Where: MONTAGEbureauet Aps Printing: Kailow Graphic Cover photo: Miklos Szabo #12;HEAT SUPPLY IN DENMARK WHO WHAT WHERE

Columbia University

420

AE: Office Supplies Purchasing Stakeholder Survey Notes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AE: Office Supplies Purchasing Stakeholder Survey Notes Updated: 2/20/2012 Overview: · Survey Purchasing Factors: · 37% of people make office supplies purchases monthly, 26% weekly, and 15% quarterly used vendors for office supplies · People mostly purchase from vendors other than Staples due

Sheridan, Jennifer

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Innovative Separations Technologies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Reprocessing used nuclear fuel (UNF) is a multi-faceted problem involving chemistry, material properties, and engineering. Technology options are available to meet a variety of processing goals. A decision about which reprocessing method is best depends significantly on the process attributes considered to be a priority. New methods of reprocessing that could provide advantages over the aqueous Plutonium Uranium Reduction Extraction (PUREX) and Uranium Extraction + (UREX+) processes, electrochemical, and other approaches are under investigation in the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCR&D) Separations Campaign. In an attempt to develop a revolutionary approach to UNF recycle that may have more favorable characteristics than existing technologies, five innovative separations projects have been initiated. These include: (1) Nitrogen Trifluoride for UNF Processing; (2) Reactive Fluoride Gas (SF6) for UNF Processing; (3) Dry Head-end Nitration Processing; (4) Chlorination Processing of UNF; and (5) Enhanced Oxidation/Chlorination Processing of UNF. This report provides a description of the proposed processes, explores how they fit into the Modified Open Cycle (MOC) and Full Recycle (FR) fuel cycles, and identifies performance differences when compared to 'reference' advanced aqueous and fluoride volatility separations cases. To be able to highlight the key changes to the reference case, general background on advanced aqueous solvent extraction, advanced oxidative processes (e.g., volumetric oxidation, or 'voloxidation,' which is high temperature reaction of oxide UNF with oxygen, or modified using other oxidizing and reducing gases), and fluorination and chlorination processes is provided.

J. Tripp; N. Soelberg; R. Wigeland

2011-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

NETL: Gasification Systems - Gas Separation  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Separation Separation Ion-Transport Membrane Oxygen Separation Modules Ion-Transport Membrane Oxygen Separation Modules Gas separation unit operations represent major cost elements in gasification plants. The gas separation technology being supported in the DOE program promises significant reduction in cost of electricity, improved thermal efficiency, and superior environmental performance. Gasification-based energy conversion systems rely on two gas separation processes: (1) separation of oxygen from air for feed to oxygen-blown gasifiers; and (2) post-gasification separation of hydrogen from carbon dioxide following (or along with) the shifting of gas composition when carbon dioxide capture is required or hydrogen is the desired product. Research efforts include development of advanced gas separation

423

Propylene feedstock: supply and demand  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The reasons for the global shortage in propylene in 1981-82 are discussed. The low running rates of ethylene production and refinery operation of which propylene is a byproduct accounts for the reduced propylene supplies. Low prices of the NCL have also shifted incentive from propylene to gas liquids. This situation will continue, with naptha/gas oil becoming the prefered feedstock for ethylene production. The speculative economics for propylene dehydrogenation are not sufficiently attractive for commercialization. But if a country has an internal market for propylene derivatives, production could have a positive influence on the economy. Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mexico are suggested as examples.

Steinbaum, C.A.; Pickover, B.H.

1983-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task because of the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Inaccurate forecasts can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. One of the key challenges is the unavailability of a consistent and robust set of metrics to measure the accuracy of a solar forecast. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, and applications) that were developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative’s efforts to improve the accuracy of solar forecasting. In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design-of-experiments methodology in conjunction with response surface, sensitivity analysis, and nonparametric statistical testing methods. The three types of forecasting improvements are (i) uniform forecasting improvements when there is not a ramp, (ii) ramp forecasting magnitude improvements, and (iii) ramp forecasting threshold changes. Day-ahead and 1-hour-ahead forecasts for both simulated and actual solar power plants are analyzed. The results show that the proposed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts and assess the economic and reliability impacts of improved solar forecasting. Sensitivity analysis results show that (i) all proposed metrics are suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with uniform forecasting improvements, and (ii) the metrics of skewness, kurtosis, and Rényi entropy are specifically suitable to show the changes in the accuracy of solar forecasts with ramp forecasting improvements and a ramp forecasting threshold.

Jie Zhang; Anthony Florita; Bri-Mathias Hodge; Siyuan Lu; Hendrik F. Hamann; Venkat Banunarayanan; Anna M. Brockway

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Petroleum Supply Monthly - July 1995 Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data by Tammy G. Heppner and Carol L. French Overview Petroleum supply data collected by the Petroleum Supply Division (PSD) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) were on the right track in 1994. These data are tracked through a series of PSD publications: the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report (WFR), the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). For the major petroleum products, weekly estimates in the WPSR and WFR are the first values available. As illustrated in Figure FE1, the PSA data represents the "finish line" or "true" values. The PSM data are closer to the mark; whereas the monthly-from-weekly (MFW) data are close behind in terms of accuracy. For 1994, 59 petroleum supply

426

Effects of the drought on California electricity supply and demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ELECTRICITY SUPPLY Hydroelectric Energy Supply Thermal-question. Data on PG&E's hydroelectric resources and Pacific27 Table 28 Table 29 Hydroelectric Supply in California Fuel

Benenson, P.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

427

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies 2012 | Department...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies 2012 IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies 2012 IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies 2012.pdf More Documents &...

428

Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

429

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

430

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Enhanced membrane gas separations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An improved membrane gas separation process is described comprising: (a) passing a feed gas stream to the non-permeate side of a membrane system adapted for the passage of purge gas on the permeate side thereof, and for the passage of the feed gas stream in a counter current flow pattern relative to the flow of purge gas on the permeate side thereof, said membrane system being capable of selectively permeating a fast permeating component from said feed gas, at a feed gas pressure at or above atmospheric pressure; (b) passing purge gas to the permeate side of the membrane system in counter current flow to the flow of said feed gas stream in order to facilitate carrying away of said fast permeating component from the surface of the membrane and maintaining the driving force for removal of the fast permeating component through the membrane from the feed gas stream, said permeate side of the membrane being maintained at a subatmospheric pressure within the range of from about 0.1 to about 5 psia by vacuum pump means; (c) recovering a product gas stream from the non-permeate side of the membrane; and (d) discharging purge gas and the fast permeating component that has permeated the membrane from the permeate side of the membrane, whereby the vacuum conditions maintained on the permeate side of the membrane by said vacuum pump means enhance the efficiency of the gas separation operation, thereby reducing the overall energy requirements thereof.

Prasad, R.

1993-07-13T23:59:59.000Z

432

Explosively separable casing  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

An explosively separable casing including a cylindrical afterbody and a circular cover for one end of the afterbody is disclosed. The afterbody has a cylindrical tongue extending longitudinally from one end which is matingly received in a corresponding groove in the cover. The groove is sized to provide a pocket between the end of the tongue and the remainder of the groove so that an explosive can be located therein. A seal is also provided between the tongue and the groove for sealing the pocket from the atmosphere. A frangible holding device is utilized to hold the cover to the afterbody. When the explosive is ignited, the increase in pressure in the pocket causes the cover to be accelerated away from the afterbody. Preferably, the inner wall of the afterbody is in the same plane as the inner wall of the tongue to provide a maximum space for storage in the afterbody and the side wall of the cover is thicker than the side wall of the afterbody so as to provide a sufficiently strong surrounding portion for the pocket in which the explosion takes place. The detonator for the explosive is also located on the cover and is carried away with the cover during separation. The seal is preferably located at the longitudinal end of the tongue and has a chevron cross section.

Jacobson, Albin K. (Albuquerque, NM); Rychnovsky, Raymond E. (Livermore, CA); Visbeck, Cornelius N. (Livermore, CA)

1985-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

433

Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Lagged ensemble forecasting of rainfall and rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) forecasting were applied to the devastating flood in the Kabul River basin, the first strike of the 2010 Pakistan flood. The forecasts were performed using the Global ...

Tomoki Ushiyama; Takahiro Sayama; Yuya Tatebe; Susumu Fujioka; Kazuhiko Fukami

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

434

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like–illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

AbstractIntroduction Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like–illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. Methods We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Results Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Conclusions Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding.

Ozgur M. Araz; Dan Bentley; Robert L. Muelleman

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Supply-side Resources & Planning Assumptions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

with forecast escalation/deescalation. Capital cost expressed as "overnight" total plant cost; w 90% 100% 16% 55% 26% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cash expended Annual expenditure Cumulative expenditure (excl EDC & IDC) 1% 2% 0% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 Year 96/19/2013 Construction schedule & cash flow

436

Immobilized fluid membranes for gas separation  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Provided herein are immobilized liquid membranes for gas separation, methods of preparing such membranes and uses thereof. In one example, the immobilized membrane includes a porous metallic host matrix and an immobilized liquid fluid (such as a silicone oil) that is immobilized within one or more pores included within the porous metallic host matrix. The immobilized liquid membrane is capable of selective permeation of one type of molecule (such as oxygen) over another type of molecule (such as water). In some examples, the selective membrane is incorporated into a device to supply oxygen from ambient air to the device for electrochemical reactions, and at the same time, to block water penetration and electrolyte loss from the device.

Liu, Wei; Canfield, Nathan L; Zhang, Jian; Li, Xiaohong Shari; Zhang, Jiguang

2014-03-18T23:59:59.000Z

437

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection criterion is introduced into the forecasting scheme for selecting the most adequate multivariate model for describing the behaviour of the time series under study. The forecasting performance of this procedure is tested using some real examples.

Ana Corberán-Vallet; José D. Bermúdez; Enriqueta Vercher

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

Application of GIS on forecasting water disaster in coal mines  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In many coal mines of China, water disasters occur very frequently. It is the most important problem that water gets inrush into drifts and coal faces, locally known as water gush, during extraction and excavation. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors such as geological, hydrogeological and mining technical conditions, and very difficult to be predicted and prevented by traditional methods. By making use of overlay analysis of Geographic Information System, a multi-factor model can be built to forecast the potential of water gush. This paper introduced the method of establishment of the water disaster forecasting system and forecasting model and two practical successful cases of application in Jiaozuo and Yinzhuang coal mines. The GIS proved helpful for ensuring the safety of coal mines.

Sun Yajun; Jiang Dong; Ji Jingxian [China Univ. of Mining and Technology, Jiangshy (China)] [and others

1996-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Isotope separation apparatus  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

Isotope separation apparatus consisting of a plurality of cells disposed adjacent to each other in an evacuated container. A common magnetic field is established extending through all of the cells. A source of energetic electrons at one end of the container generates electrons which pass through the cells along the magnetic field lines. Each cell includes an array of collector plates arranged in parallel or in tandem within a common magnetic field. Sets of collector plates are disposed adjacent to each other in each cell. Means are provided for differentially energizing ions of a desired isotope by applying energy at the cyclotron resonant frequency of the desired isotope. As a result, the energized desired ions are preferentially collected by the collector plates.

Arnush, Donald (Rancho Palos Verdes, CA); MacKenzie, Kenneth R. (Pacific Palisades, CA); Wuerker, Ralph F. (Palos Verdes Estates, CA)

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Electrified Separation Processes in Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

For any separation procedure in the chemical industry, a certain amount of reversible work in the form of free energy is required, as dictated by the second law of thermodynamics. Classical techniques for effecting liquid-phase separations...

Appleby, A. J.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Actinide Separation Science and Technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Both the science and technology of the actinides as we know them today owe much to separation science. Conversely, the field of metal ion separations, solvent extraction, and ion exchange in particular, would ...

Kenneth L. Nash; Charles Madic…

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Actinide Separation Science and Technology  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Both the science and technology of the actinides as we know them today owe much to separation science. Conversely, the field of metal ion separations, solvent extraction, and ion exchange in particular, would ...

Kenneth L. Nash; Charles Madic…

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Advanced isotope separation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Study Group briefly reviewed the technical status of the three Advanced Isotope Separation (AIS) processes. It also reviewed the evaluation work that has been carried out by DOE's Process Evaluation Board (PEB) and the Union Carbide Corporation-Nuclear Division (UCCND). The Study Group briefly reviewed a recent draft assessment made for DOE staff of the nonproliferation implications of the AIS technologies. The staff also very briefly summarized the status of GCEP and Advanced Centrifuge development. The Study Group concluded that: (1) there has not been sufficient progress to provide a firm scientific, technical or economic basis on which to select one of the three competing AIS processes for full-scale engineering development at this time; and (2) however, should budgetary restraints or other factors force such a selection, we believe that the evaluation process that is being carried out by the PEB provides the best basis available for making a decision. The Study Group recommended that: (1) any decisions on AIS processes should include a comparison with gas centrifuge processes, and should not be made independently from the plutonium isotope program; (2) in evaluating the various enrichment processes, all applicable costs (including R and D and sales overhead) and an appropriate discounting approach should be included in order to make comparisons on a private industry basis; (3) if the three AIS programs continue with limited resources, the work should be reoriented to focus only on the most pressing technical problems; and (4) if a decision is made to develop the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation process, the solid collector option should be pursued in parallel to alleviate the potential program impact of liquid collector thermal control problems.

Not Available

1982-05-04T23:59:59.000Z

444

Separation Nanotechnology of Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic Acid...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Nanotechnology of Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic Acid Bonded Magnetic Nanoparticles for Spent Nuclear Fuel. Separation Nanotechnology of Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic Acid Bonded...

445

Upgrading the TFTR Transrex Power Supplies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to provide improved and expanded experimental capabilities, the existing Transrex power supplies at PPPL are to be upgraded and modernized. Each of the 39 power supplies consists of two six pulse silicon controlled rectifier sections forming a twelve pulse power supply. The first modification is to split each supply into two independent six pulse supplies by replacing the existing obsolete twelve pulse firing generator with two commercially available six pulse firing generators. The second change replaces the existing control link with a faster system, with greater capacity, which will allow for independent control of all 78 power supply sections. The third change replaces the existing Computer Automated Measurement and Control (CAMAC) based fault detector with an Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) compatible unit, eliminating the obsolete CAMAC modules. Finally the remaining relay logic and interfaces to the "Hardwired Control System" will be replaces with a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC).

J. E. Lawson, R. Marsala, S. Ramakrishnan, X. Zhao, P. Sichta

2009-05-29T23:59:59.000Z

446

NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Forecasting and Modeling Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Geraly Amador Clayton Barrows Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Carolyn Davidson Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Aron Dobos Easan Drury Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Marissa Hummon Jennie Jorganson Jordan Macknick Trieu Mai David Mulcahy David Palchak Ben Sigrin Daniel Steinberg Patrick Sullivan Aaron Townsend Laura Vimmerstedt Andrew Weekley Owen Zinaman Photo of Clayton Barrows. Clayton Barrows Postdoctoral Researcher Areas of expertise Power system modeling Primary research interests Power and energy systems

447

Conceptual design of a geothermal site development forecasting system  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A site development forecasting system has been designed in response to the need to monitor and forecast the development of specific geothermal resource sites for electrical power generation and direct heat applications. The system is comprised of customized software, a site development status data base, and a set of complex geothermal project development schedules. The system would use site-specific development status information obtained from the Geothermal Progress Monitor and other data derived from economic and market penetration studies to produce reports on the rates of geothermal energy development, federal agency manpower requirements to ensure these developments, and capital expenditures and technical/laborer manpower required to achieve these developments.

Neham, E.A.; Entingh, D.J.

1980-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

Klein, Stephen

449

Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

NONE

1996-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

450

Sales forecasting strategies for small businesses: an empirical investigation of statistical and judgemental methods  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study evolved from the mixed results shown in the reviewed forecasting literature and from the lack of sufficient forecasting research dealing with micro data. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the accuracy of different quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques, and to recommend a forecasting strategy for small businesses. Emphasis is placed on the testing of combining as a tool to improve forecasting accuracy. Of particular interest is whether combining time series and judgemental forecasts provides more accurate results than individual methods. A case study of a small business was used for this purpose to assess the accuracy and applicability of combining forecasts. The evidence indicates that combining qualitative and quantitative methods results in better and improved forecasts.

Imad J. Zbib

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Forecasting 65+ travel : an integration of cohort analysis and travel demand modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Over the next 30 years, the Boomers will double the 65+ population in the United States and comprise a new generation of older Americans. This study forecasts the aging Boomers' travel. Previous efforts to forecast 65+ ...

Bush, Sarah, 1973-

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

A Comparison of Measures-Oriented and Distributions-Oriented Approaches to Forecast Verification  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The authors have carried out verification of 590 12–24-h high-temperature forecasts from numerical guidance products and human forecasters for Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, using both a measures-oriented verification scheme and a distributions-...

Harold E. Brooks; Charles A. Doswell III

1996-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

454

Correspondence among the Correlation, RMSE, and Heidke Forecast Verification Measures; Refinement of the Heidke Score  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The correspondence among the following three forecast verification scores, based on forecasts and their associated observations, is described: 1) the correlation score, 2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score, and 3) the Heidke score (based on ...

Anthony G. Barnston

1992-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing Method  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A statistical postprocessing approach is applied to seasonal forecasts of surface air temperatures (SAT) over North America in fall, when the original uncalibrated predictions have little skill. The data used are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts ...

XiaoJing Jia; Hai Lin; Jacques Derome

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity

Jakub Nowotarski; Rafa? Weron

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, a method of forecasting demand prices for electric energy for the industry has been suggested. An algorithm of the forecast for 2006–2010 based on the data for 1997–2005 has been presented.

V. V. Kossov

2014-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning… (more)

Zareipour, Hamidreza

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

2011-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

460

Combining Multi Wavelet and Multi NN for Power Systems Load Forecasting  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the paper, two pre-processing methods for load forecast sampling data including multiwavelet transformation and chaotic time series ... introduced. In addition, multi neural network for load forecast including...

Zhigang Liu; Qi Wang; Yajun Zhang

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps? Hyperbolic Decline Model...

Statton, James Cody

2012-07-16T23:59:59.000Z

462

E-Print Network 3.0 - air pollution forecast Sample Search Results  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

forecast Search Powered by Explorit Topic List Advanced Search Sample search results for: air pollution forecast Page: << < 1 2 3 4 5 > >> 1 DISCOVER-AQ Outlook for Wednesay, July...

463

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

and validation.   Solar Energy.   73:5, 307? Perez, R. , irradiance forecasts for solar energy applications based on forecast database.   Solar Energy.   81:6, 809?812.  

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

A WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Speed Forecasts at Turbine Height  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with ...

Adam J. Deppe; William A. Gallus Jr.; Eugene S. Takle

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13T23:59:59.000Z

466

Shock-activated electrochemical power supplies  

DOE Patents [OSTI]

A shock-activated electrochemical power supply is provided which is initiated extremely rapidly and which has a long shelf life. Electrochemical power supplies of this invention are initiated much faster than conventional thermal batteries. Power supplies of this invention comprise an inactive electrolyte and means for generating a high-pressure shock wave such that the shock wave is propagated through the electrolyte rendering the electrolyte electrochemically active. 2 figs.

Benedick, W.B.; Graham, R.A.; Morosin, B.

1987-04-20T23:59:59.000Z

467

Assessing Reliability in Energy Supply Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

McCarthy, Ryan; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Dan

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Assessing reliability in energy supply systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading expected to increase insteam reformation production facility using imported LNG.The LNG supplies come primarily from Trinidad and Tobago,

McCarthy, Ryan W.; Ogden, Joan M.; Sperling, Daniel

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Coupling Renewable Energy Supply with Deferrable Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1.2 Limitations to Large-Scale Renewable EnergyImpacts of Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.3 Coupling Renewable Energy with Deferrable

Papavasiliou, Anthony

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

EU Energy Situations and Supply Security.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? Energy supply security is a hot topic today. It highly influences energy market, national security and also residents’ daily lives. However, due to different… (more)

Xu, Chen

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Total Supplemental Supply of Natural Gas  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Product: Total Supplemental Supply Synthetic Propane-Air Refinery Gas Biomass Other Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources &...

472

Better Plants Supply Chain Pilot Overview  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

be helping their suppliers achieve energy and cost savings, while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. This can lead to stronger, more competitive supply chains and help...

473

,"New York Supplemental Supplies of Natural Gas"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","New York Supplemental Supplies of Natural Gas",5,"Annual",2013,"6301967" ,"Release Date:","10...

474

Electrical Power Supply Applications Engineer | Princeton Plasma...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Electrical Power Supply Applications Engineer Department: Engineering Supervisor(s): John Lacenere Staff: ENG 04 Requisition Number: 1400303 The Princeton University Plasma Physics...

475

Improving the forecasting function for a Credit Hire operator in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study aims to test on the predictability of Credit Hire services for the automobile and insurance industry. A relatively sophisticated time series forecasting procedure, which conducts a competition among exponential smoothing models, is employed to forecast demand for a leading UK Credit Hire operator (CHO). The generated forecasts are compared against the Naive method, resulting that demand for CHO services is indeed extremely hard to forecast, as the underlying variable is the number of road accidents – a truly stochastic variable.

Nicolas D. Savio; K. Nikolopoulos; Konstantinos Bozos

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Economies of scope in electricity supply and the costs of vertical separation for different unbundling scenarios  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Motivated by the movement towards vertical unbundling in Europe this study measures the economies of scope for the U.S. electricity industry based on a multi-stage cost function. The paper analyzes three unbundli...

Roland Meyer

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

Adjudication of a Contract for the Supply of Pulsed Power Supplies for Correcting Lenses of the CERN Proton Synchroton (CPS)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Adjudication of a Contract for the Supply of Pulsed Power Supplies for Correcting Lenses of the CERN Proton Synchroton (CPS)

1974-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Advanced Accessory Power Supply Topologies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) began December 8, 2000 and ended September 30, 2009. The total funding provided by the Participant (General Motors Advanced Technology Vehicles [GM]) during the course of the CRADA totaled $1.2M enabling the Contractor (UT-Battelle, LLC [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a.k.a. ORNL]) to contribute significantly to the joint project. The initial task was to work with GM on the feasibility of developing their conceptual approach of modifying major components of the existing traction inverter/drive to develop low cost, robust, accessory power. Two alternate methods for implementation were suggested by ORNL and both were proven successful through simulations and then extensive testing of prototypes designed and fabricated during the project. This validated the GM overall concept. Moreover, three joint U.S. patents were issued and subsequently licensed by GM. After successfully fulfilling the initial objective, the direction and duration of the CRADA was modified and GM provided funding for two additional tasks. The first new task was to provide the basic development for implementing a cascaded inverter technology into hybrid vehicles (including plug-in hybrid, fuel cell, and electric). The second new task was to continue the basic development for implementing inverter and converter topologies and new technology assessments for hybrid vehicle applications. Additionally, this task was to address the use of high temperature components in drive systems. Under this CRADA, ORNL conducted further research based on GM’s idea of using the motor magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply that is nongalvanically coupled to the terminals of the high voltage dc-link battery of hybrid vehicles. In order not to interfere with the motor’s torque, ORNL suggested to use the zero-sequence, highfrequency harmonics carried by the main fundamental motor current for producing the accessory power. Two studies were conducted at ORNL. One was to put an additional winding in the motor slots to magnetically link with the high frequency of the controllable zero-sequence stator currents that do not produce any zero-sequence harmonic torques. The second approach was to utilize the corners of the square stator punching for the high-frequency transformers of the dc/dc inverter. Both approaches were successful. This CRADA validated the feasibility of GM’s desire to use the motor’s magnetic core and windings to produce bidirectional accessory power supply. Three joint U.S. patents with GM were issued to ORNL and GM by the U.S. Patent Office for the research results produced by this CRADA.

Marlino, L.D.

2010-06-15T23:59:59.000Z

480

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

G: Key Assumptions for the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol Case G: Key Assumptions for the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol Case Energy-Related Emissions of Greenhouse Gases The System for the Analysis of Global energy Markets (SAGE)—the model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) mid-term projections—does not include non-energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases, which are estimated at about 15 to 20 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, based on inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). SAGE models global energy supply and demand and, therefore, does not address agricultural and other non-energy-related emissions. EIA implicitly assumes that percentage reductions of non-energy-related emissions and their associated abatement costs will be similar to those for energy-related emissions. Non-energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are likely to grow faster than energy-related emissions; however, the marginal abatement costs for non-energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are not known and cannot be estimated reliably. In SAGE, each region’s emissions reduction goal under the Kyoto Protocol is based only on the corresponding estimate of that region’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, as determined by EIA data. It is assumed that the required reductions will also be proportionately less than if all gases were included.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "forecast separate supply" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) I: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) The projections of world energy consumption appearing in this yearÂ’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) are based on the Energy Information AdministrationÂ’s (EIAÂ’s) international energy modeling tool, System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). SAGE is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each regionÂ’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.

482

Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power ­ Overview of the ANEMOS Project. G outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting. Advanced forecasts for the power system management and market integration of wind power. Keywords: Wind power, short

Boyer, Edmond

483

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Combination of Long Term and Short Term Forecasts, with Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting that are combined. As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we con- sider 33 source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel

Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.

484

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 3 AUGUST 16, 2012  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all

Gray, William

485

VALIDATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM OPERATIONAL SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTS IN THE US  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, and medium term forecasts (up to seven days ahead) from numerical weather prediction models [1]. Forecasts radiation forecasting. One approach relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models which can be global modeling of the atmosphere. NWP models cannot, at this stage of their development, predict the exact

Perez, Richard R.

486

Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) Seasonal Climate Forecast (1-6 months) #12;Weather Forecast Weather Bulletin PCD SCD1 SCD2 SX6 SatelliteLOG O Products and Service of Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Simone Sievert da AND DEVELOP. DIVISION SATELLITE DIVISION ENVIROM. SYSTEM OPERATIONAL DIVISION CPTEC/INPE Msc / PHD &TRAINING

487

Lessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

model along with other sources of weather data such as satellite pictures and their own forecastingLessons from Deploying NLG Technology for Marine Weather Forecast Text Generation Somayajulu G Language Generation (NLG) system that produces textual weather forecasts for offshore oilrigs from

Sripada, Yaji

488

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone Vivien Mallet1., and B. Sportisse (2006), Ensemble-based air quality forecasts: A multimodel approach applied to ozone, J, the uncertainty in chem- istry transport models is a major limitation of air quality forecasting. The source

Boyer, Edmond

489

Gas separation process  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The method for production of high purity hydrogen and high purity carbon monoxide from a mixed gas stream comprising these components together with carbon dioxide and a zero to a minor amount of one or more other gaseous contaminants is described comprising the steps of: (a) passing the mixed gas stream into and through a first bed of solid adsorbent capable of selectively adsorbing carbon dioxide and water while discharging from the bed a dry CO/sub 2/-freed effluent; (b) introducing the dry CO/sub 2/-freed effluent into a cryogenic environment for cooling the same therein under conditions effective for condensation of at least the major part of the carbon monoxide present in the dry CO/sub 2/-freed effluent; (c) withdrawing from the cryogenic environment carbon monoxide of high purity; (d) separately withdrawing from the cryogenic environment an uncondensed first gas stream product comprised of crude hydrogen and subjecting the first gas stream product to selective adsorption of non-hydrogen components therefrom in a second bed of solid absorbent, while recovering from the second bed the non-sorbed fraction as a product stream of essentially pure hydrogen; (e) purging the second solid adsorbent bed to desorb non-hydrogen components sorbed therein in step (d), and withdrawing from the bed a gas stream comprising the desorbed non-hydrogen components.

Nicholas, D.M.; Hopkins, J.A.; Roden, T.M.; Bushinsky, J.P.

1988-03-22T23:59:59.000Z

490

Reshaping the electricity supply industry  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Cigre`s Electra magazine published this interview with Alfonso Limbruno, CEO of ENEL S.p.A. To put the interview in perspective, this article begins with a brief overview of ENEL and a biographical sketch of Alfonso Limbruno, and also carries comments from Y. Thomas, secretary general of CIGRE. ENEL is a vertically integrated nationwide electricity company engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity, predominantly in Italy. ENEL`s share accounts for approximately 80 percent of Italian electricity demand. Measured by amount of electricity sold, ENEL is the third largest electric utility in the OECD countries and the second largest electric utility in Europe. Measured by revenues, ENEL is one of the largest companies in Italy, with a turnover of Lit. 37,632 billion. In 1995, ENEL served approximately 28.5 million customers and sold 211,607 GWh of electricity. ENEL`s gross installed generating capacity at December 31, 1995 was 55,906 MW. Alfonso Limbruno made all his career in the Italian electricity supply industry (ESI) and has had quite a unique experience: he went through a complete cycle of change of the ESI in his country, the nationalization of the sector in 1962 with the merging in ENEL of over 1,200 undertakings, and now the privatization of the company, along with a far reaching restructuring of the industry. He was appointed CEO of ENEL in August 1992.

NONE

1997-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Supply Chain The effective supply chain has become a new organizational and operational  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

MBA in Supply Chain Management #12;The effective supply chain has become a new organizational a virtual integration of business partners to achieve new levels of efficiency and productivity, as well

Lin, Xiaodong

492

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers with Meteorological Forecasts Antonio that the inherent variability in wind power generation and the related difficulty in predicting future generation profiles, raise major challenges to wind power integration into the electricity grid. In this work we study

Giannitrapani, Antonello

493

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc, 2000 Abstract The marketing team of a new telecommunications company is usually tasked with producing involved in doing so. Based on our three decades of experience working with telecommunications operators

Parsons, Simon

494

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high

Cerpa, Alberto E.

495

Solar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting QuestionnaireSolar Resource and Forecasting Questionnaire As someone who is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will tak  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is familiar with solar energy issues, we hope that you will take a few moments to answer this short survey on your needs for information on solar energy resources and forecasting. This survey is conducted with the California Solar Energy Collaborative (CSEC) and the California Solar Initiative (CSI) our objective

Islam, M. Saif

496

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A FORECAST MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS PRICE Wensheng Zhang1,* , Hongfu Chen1 and excessive fluctuation of agricultural and livestock products price is not only harmful to residents' living, but also affects CPI (Consumer Price Index) values, and even leads to social crisis, which influences

Boyer, Edmond

497

Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

) into the future. Our approach is to train a set of standard forecasting models to our time series data. Each model conditioning (HVAC) systems. In particular, if occupancy can be accurately pre- dicted, HVAC systems can potentially be controlled to op- erate more efficiently. For example, an HVAC system can pre-heat or pre

Hoff, William A.

498

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Forecasting Hospital Bed Availability Using Simulation and Neural Networks Matthew J. Daniels is a critical factor for decision-making in hospitals. Bed availability (or alternatively the bed occupancy in emergency departments, and many other important hospital decisions. To better enable a hospital to make

Kuhl, Michael E.

499

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning Navin Sharma, Pranshu Sharma, David Irwin, and Prashant Shenoy Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 {nksharma,pranshus,irwin,shenoy}@cs.umass.edu Abstract--A key goal

Shenoy, Prashant

500

Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

2011-03-28T23:59:59.000Z